ABOUT THIS EPISODE


Never a dull moment as Bitcoin decides to pull a complete 180 and go straight up! We'll also be talking about short term vs long term capital gains (the math behind it) and why so many traders say “it could go up, it could go down.”
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*NOT Professional advice, this is all just my own opinion and experience. Consult professionals for any tax, accounting or legal related questions you have.
Get your free PDF here: http://www.coinmastery.com/invest

Subscribe to the Podcast: http://www.coinmastery.com/itunes

Follow me on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/carterthomas
Trade With Leverage, Short Bitcoin + Become a Coin Master: http://www.coinmastery.com/bitmex
Books + Other Stuff I Recommend: http://www.coinmastery.com/store
Sign up for Binance: http://www.coinmastery.com/binance
Contact: [email protected]
*NOT Professional advice, this is all just my own opinion and experience. Consult professionals for any tax, accounting or legal related questions you have.
English
United States

TRANSCRIPT

00:00:00what's up guys this is Thomas with coin Mastery TV happy Friday TGIF make sure you hit the Subscribe button if you're new and the thumbs-up button if you're returning hope you're doing great hope you having a great day watching this Bitcoin Market is juca's just go straight Tim Hardaway crossover right in front of our faces trying to mess up what's going on here today we're doing something a little different we're going to talk specifically about what's going on with Bitcoin a little bit as best we can I want to walk through something with capital gains and like their cognitive bias around capital gains for new on it supposed to be live in the United States but really any country that has capital gains taxes but even if you don't have to pay Capital Gains in New Jersey Section I think I'll still find valuable and lastly we ready or Friday presentation all about the question which you probably hear a lot of
00:01:00to your innermost YouTube channels where people say well it could go up and it could go down and I want to walk through that cuz it's really important to understand the deeper meaning behind that so that you can make better decisions whether you are a long-term investor a short-term investor Trader whatever you want to call it it will help you make better decisions in this market frustrated with you know people like me on YouTube channel switch as always this none of this is professional just just a regular dude on YouTube to make sure you contacted professionals and that's really important today as we talked about any sort of tax info none of this is professional you definitely need to get all. Verified by a train certified person
00:01:51anyway let's talk about have a big one as when we did the video yesterday
00:01:56Bitcoin was in this Zone podcast for looking at the bit the next 4-Hour we are back at the 8800 level does consolidating a lot of I should probably turn on the volume just so we can see this so she on bitfinex side note if you are into charts if you do look at this stuff I would encourage you to look at different exchanges and look at the different volume on the charts first of all of the gdax coinbase charts on tradingview the volume is all messed up looking a bit Max can be very helpful just because it's so much liquidity even if you don't trade on bittrex even if you can't turn on bitmex it can be very it's a very good indicator especially as to get lower time frame because we're that much liquidity you can see the patterns more fluidly just as a side note for people if you ever want to do this
00:02:52so we were looking at this yesterday and is consolidating and we were kind of or I should say I was looking at this being like all right I think we bounced up I think the next no we we got to have some sort of pulled back especially off of this Spike and I drew these zones kind of laid out sort of the stairs down of course in true Bitcoin fashion in crypto fashion it did the exact opposite and it went straight up so it goes and you know the good news is I didn't lose any money the bad news is I receive his I didn't trade against that but I think that always comes back to the really core principle number one rule protector Capital number to rule preserver Capital number 3 rule is
00:03:45Prairie Capital so as long as you didn't lose it your good not making it at since you said that because there's always more opportunities to make to make money are good in trees or whatever but what's zoom in I'm actually going to go into the 15-minute chart which may be helpful I'm coming I'm going to go crazy go to the 5 minute because I think it is that helpful this year tweet about this what you notice is that this bar happened at what what is 8/8 UTC time it's 1 p.m. Pacific 4 p.m. Eastern for anybody in the United States I'm not sure exactly what that would be I guess that's kind of the night time and in Europe London I think London's UTC UTC
00:04:34look at this so that we were kind of bouncing around here consolidating doing our thing and then in one in five minutes unless it's good to completely crazy let's go to the one minute here and go back this is a 1-minute chart
00:04:51and in so in that 5 minutes there was
00:04:56I mean I definitely let's see their soul in the first minute there is 1.07 3000 Bitcoin purchased there's no way that
00:05:07that's an organic thing that means somebody
00:05:11was in the Phoenix and pressed Market by Lake clear out the order books by it up and chances are they either continue to do that or they had a very small group of people because the fact is this short of a time frame the fact it is a market by there could just clear out the book so fast points to the fact that this was a very corny never know the other pieces that this was 3 minutes 2 minutes after the stock exchange close in the United States this is also in the 4-Hour candles close so you can start to see some of the trends happening and if you if you scroll back I'm going to do right now but if you scroll back a pretty much over the last week this one Pacific 8 p.m. UTC time it's always a pump right like this one isn't it but like if you go back you'll see it there's always a pump right around that time chances of it happening again today
00:06:08I don't know but it does tend to happen right around a specific time frame ships right as campus closed maybe it's an algorithm who knows what it is an interesting interesting pattern to pick up what it really shows me and this is true I think in any Market that you were especially crypto like everything about technical analysis everything about fundamental analysis everything in general can be changed by one person or one group of people like that it can change the entire Dynamic of the market so wall there's no there's no tried-and-true now hardship hard-and-fast rules here because of that because of people can move the markets so easily and it's not illegal in crypto that's a big thing you can't
00:06:59doesn't it's there's no rules against it so what does this mean what is it what comes next well the first thing that I'm going to look at is our good friend so actually it was a good point when you zoom out I just I was just messing around I drew this triangle free to listen to the podcast Edgewood from the February low 6002 the April low of what's at 6500 ish give or take to a trendline there and then we would have a trend line up from the peak early March at 11500 and then April 9700 as a triangle right so if this as a larger Trend if this hold up
00:07:44we could potentially see a price bounce off this triangle you know at some point and then come back down to complete the triangle and then we would see what the resulting Trend would look like so that's kind of a bigger Longer term potential Trend that we can look at the other thing to look at my take off this volume clean this up a little bit I'm actually going to delete some of these boxes just to make this easier for you guys especially if you're watching on your phones or on your computers I should say
00:08:19wants to leave these trend lines over at it and I'm going to go over and I'm going to do a good old-fashioned Fibonacci retracements wear
00:08:28I go down from the bottom
00:08:31up to the top going to go to the song lyrics actually and I'm going to do it on a 30 minute chart just so we can get a little bit more granular now you see the one I drive from the bottom local bottom up to the most recent top you can start to see that these levels actually do have a pretty good correlation to Natural resistance in Spore levels that we are seeing so up to the top go to the hour to swing a little bit of a resume out and it to extend this out
00:09:04right and you go back to some of the levels that we've been looking at you can see that actually matches up with previous support resistance as well so there's always these kind of patterns in in the charts what is this mean well it means that if this keeps going straight up you know we're really in a new Voltron and we can't really predict as as nearly as well as if we are coming if your retracing it's a little bit easier to forecast the reversals off or at least take that are guesses on not to talk about a little bit but if it does
00:09:40just happened where to go
00:09:43I know I just disappeared technical difficulties to drop one more time here
00:09:48you can see that it starts to come down and if I was going to make a if I see this start to retrace I would start to look at something like the 50% the 8100 potentially even down to the 61 and death of the 78 to 78 going to be Mega support down here at like 71 area with the boxes that we had is this a different way to look at it so the real real question is going to be what is this thing to do is this going to be a pennant is this going to be a bull flag is this going to continue up to 10,000 or will it break down and then we can start to look at these replacement levels personally I am not I mean I've got like my positions in the market that are just kind of doing nothing but I'm not actively entering anything yet this is to me is very low probability situation and I'll talk about what I mean by that so
00:10:47it's really a wait-and-see move to see if we get more of these pumped you know these kind of one-time pumps or if we start getting those dumps again I don't know if we will but will say now let's switch gears for a second when I can do a whole lot of news and stuff that I thought I would just be helpful to keep these videos little shorter but also to deliver more I like doing that you can't find anywhere else I think that's helpful because she's so much else out there you know I want to be a little bit different here and we move this over here so if you're listening on the podcast this may be helpful
00:11:24to watch the video just so you could see visual of this but this is a spreadsheet I put together the comparison short-term versus long-term tax rates in a hypothetical situation now there's a lot of caveat here first I'll say it again this none of this is professional advice I'm not trying to beat a dead horse but I have to say that all of these numbers need to be verified by someone who's a professional based on where you live based on your country based on your state all that okay so I gets into a whole different section in this is a loose example for somebody who lives in the United States just on the federal tax ID no state tax
00:12:05who makes approximately $100,000 a year I'm just taking a complete gas
00:12:13as a like kind of a stereotypical person who potentially watches this Channel right now 50% of America but that's just that is the biggest percent and it's just too complicated to drive but the fact remains that this logic this way of thinking can really help you so let's walk through an example now if you don't know for anybody if you're new to treating investing everything there is short-term and long-term capital gains meaning if you buy something as you can see here in column B if you buy something for $1,000 and you buy with a Bitcoin for a thousand bucks and it goes up to $1,500 and you sell it there was a capital gain of $500 right there's a profit $500
00:13:02you have to pay taxes in the United States and many other countries on that $500 capital gain
00:13:10this is a big point of contention politically asset class wise there's a lot you know who knows how this is going to change actually France today just change their laws from was it 41% down to 1944 cryptogain so that's what it is you don't pay the taxes on the $1,500 you just paid on the games that's that's an important piece of it
00:13:38but if you do short term Which is less than a year there is a very different tax rate then there if you do a long-term if you do short term meaning if you buy and sell within one year of each other you are taxed at your normalizing come right so if this is a screenshot right off of the blue Ghost at the IRS website where it shows the marginal tax rates for different income levels again talk to a tax professional because there's a lot of stuff to ductions and things are going to this but Loosely speaking if your income is between 91000 and 1 91,000 you're paying 28% and change the sliding scale
00:14:21if you make less than that if make 3791 you only take 25 9037 2015 make less than $9,000 play Zero and then some relief you make more than 44 and 18000 you paying 39.6% on the personal income level so it depends on how much you're making that's the first piece let's walk through this example
00:14:46what's a you buy Bitcoin at $1,000 let's say goes up to $1,500 and you sell it or exchange it back to US Dollars you now have a capital gain of $500 that is the taxable event
00:15:05let's assume this happened in one month's time 30 days and you make $100,000 a year whatever
00:15:14your federal tax rate would be 28% on that $500 game night so your tax owed to the federal government would be $140 it's 28% of 500 right so your net profit you would keep 360 so it's pretty self-explanatory Cimorelli if you bought Bitcoin in 1001 1500 and then you sold it at 1500 but it was 368 days later it was after one year of buying it
00:15:50you would pay long-term capital gain so you take that $500 and you only pay 15% down here I put the long-term capital gains this is obviously it's complicated when you're single or married filing jointly whatever but if you're making $100,000 you're paying 15% if it's over if you make over $40,000. You actually pay more so right so if you make more money than it states you into paying much higher taxes than everyone else just based on the marginal tax rates that doesn't include like to ductions and all that sort of thing
00:16:23so you pay 15% on the same 500 games because you waited a year
00:16:31so you only owed $75 to the government for that game now here's where it gets tricky typically people look at this tax owed and I like men I pay twice as much if I go short-term capital gains then if I went long-term capital gains that's ridiculous why would I ever do that that's just going to bleed me dry that's the way that most people think about it because me look at it's twice as much money but let's take it a little bit further so when you look at the net profit and net profit is 360 for the short-term capital gain its 4:25 for the long-term capital gain
00:17:09now I have two columns the First Column is called a relative Revenue which is comparing the two prophets against each other
00:17:19the first relative Revenue meaning if you want short-term capital gains you made $6,500 less than if you did 425 because that's really the question mark right all you care about is the relative strength against the other option it's not it's not like it's got to be one of the other right you're going to have to pay to long-term capital gains on your Bitcoin at some point maybe at the end of 50 years but it's some point there's going to be a taxable event or if you have someone carrots if there's going to be a taxable that to just compare these two to each other not as absolute values which is what we did over here in column F long-term capital gains you next to make $65 more than it be short-term
00:18:08here's where it gets really interesting when you look at the relative percentage meaning what
00:18:15what's the percentage of 360 in to 4:25 its 85% tomorrow at 4:25 is 118% more than 3 what does that mean it means that short-term capital gains is not twice as bad it's actually only 15% worse on a revenue stamp point on a net profit Sandpoint then if you went long-term capital gains which is 18% better than the short-term capital gains it is not double is not twice as bad as you got to look at them relative to each other because you were going to pay taxes on one of these and if it goes up through the roof and you end up making a ton of money off of that lets a Bitcoin goes to $300,000 or whatever your tax rate goes up to 39.6 or whatever maybe all these numbers change and you can you can modify this to put like a mental it said you were you did me
00:19:15a lot of money you know the numbers do change so if you're making a ton of money the tax rates may have different vacations for you but if you're making
00:19:2450 hundred thousand dollars
00:19:27this actually isn't nearly as bad as people think it's more that the tax. Is where the the pain comes in and that's some different political discussion which please keep out of the comments nobody here wants to talk about lyrics it's all about the relative is the relative impact on your bottom line
00:19:49so let me look at this and you say I will 118 is still been 85 like I'm obviously here for the long-term this is you know I'm happy with this and this also assume you're going to switch back into US dollars who knows if potentially we could pay our taxes bigquint yeah that adds a whole new
00:20:10spin to it I don't think it's going to change tax rates
00:20:14but here's the other thing to keep in mind with this with the risk of holding long-term one there's obviously Market risk which I think the you know the last 9 months has shown you that there's a lot of uncertainty in cryptocurrency so you are you are basically saying that it's that you are
00:20:3718% sure that it is going to get better to hold long that it is to sell now or whatever you want to do like you wanted profits longer but it's actually not that big of a deal like a different Stacks like benefit Wise from Attack standpoint similarly
00:20:56you don't know what the tax rates are going to do in the future if I was a betting man and I like the deficit in the United States debt versus United States but globally Daddy's pretty much the most insane problem you can imagine I would be willing to bet these rates are going to go up when they're going to go down if we don't obviously don't know that but when I look at the next 30-40 years how they could possibly hey for the stuff that they are spending money on
00:21:25I'll do the same I hate low taxes is the way to go
00:21:31that's just me and so that's why offense better to your Roth IRA as opposed to regular Ira if you know cuz she can kind of control your environment very soon something about so I'm not putting this spreadsheet up I'm not going to have this downloadable because I don't want people to use this as a as a tool I think that you should you can obviously look at what I did hear it's pretty easy to see what I calculated
00:21:58but you should do it yourself ask a an account for advice on this but my point is that
00:22:07it's actually not that huge of a difference if you do short-term cat versus long-term capital unless you're making a ton of money
00:22:16whatever or if you genuinely firmly believe that the long-term probably no benefits won't change up the tax rates won't change the future is very bright for Bitcoin everything or whatever your Trading
00:22:36but the more you know the better better decisions you can make sound
00:22:40that's that I think that that's always helpful to look at because soon he will just get hung up on this like it's twice as bad to go short term it's not twice as bad it's all relative I had you got to look at the relative profit aching last certainly not least
00:23:00take a look at this
00:23:02call this presentation it might go up and it might go down
00:23:08all. Entries probabilities now as you get into to the trading World which many of you guys know that I've started getting serious about trading to 3 months ago getting very interested in becoming a penetrating mentality
00:23:26I'm big on the mindset psychological side of this stuff way more than the my new show on the technical mostly because all the top carriers that's what they tell me is most important so figure that's why you starting here's what I want to walk through
00:23:41if you saw it so if you listen to the podcast we're just doing I'm looking at a presentation that a regular chart of somebody what we just looked at
00:23:50with a green arrow going up and a red arrow pointing down at the most recent price and over here I have it says here's what can happen in quotes meaning similar to what I just said hey here's what could go down instead of saying OK here is exactly what the pattern looks like and based on this Theory it's definitely going to do this next guy but that's not that's not what I say it's not anyone says and for many of you it made this may drive you completely insane I know for me when I first got started this is this is one of the hardest things to wrap my head around cuz I couldn't find anybody that would just tell me with complete certainty what was going to happen next like just just your trainer your Technical and tell me what the next thing is like let me just just tell to me
00:24:43and it was only until I got into it that I finally realized how much of an idiot that made me look like I'm not saying anyone looks like I was really naive to think that that's how this works so hopefully I can explain it so that many of you out there can make better decisions and also understand why people talk the way they do and it's going to be process information a lot lot more effectively now
00:25:10I'm just resumed it on the charger and I did a kind of amok
00:25:16what's called a risk reward and you can do this and tradingview there's like a I should just show you so if you go over here on the left there's this button click this and you can do a long position and short position but that's how you you can kind of gauge this What's called the risk-reward so the way you look at this is let's say we're at the the price to wear at right now whenever you watching this video and you were like
00:25:46okay I want to either buy or going to go long or movie short
00:25:51you would do your analysis based on macro fundamental technical whatever
00:25:56and you would set up your forecast what the potential risk reward would be there's no that's where the art of entries comes in right that being able to figure all this out but just as a simple one I drew one and it gives you a few potential opportunity so I thought that there's a lot more opportunity to go up which I'm not sure that there is in this case this is example I would say that the target would be the next like right before the next resistant Zone and let's say I had the possibility to if this trade worked I upside to be 17.21%
00:26:35if this trade failed my downside would be 1.83 because that's where I would set my stop loss so over here I could do that and this is one option that I could do so when you're looking at buying into crypto does it matter if you are buying for the next 10-20 years into a IRA or 401k or you're going to hold it forever or whatever
00:27:03this is still what you're doing mentally and it's helpful to put this down so that you you actually buy the right time and you know you don't buy the top and then just get totally smoked and lose all your money
00:27:16so this is the way you think about it sooner or later if you're going to go short if that if you're into that you would set up the risk-reward where you start at the point where you're at and do your analysis to determine where would I set my stop loss maybe it's bigger because a natural stop us would be at where this resistance I may be a little bit above it let's say that's 4.2 so there's a lot more room for the stop but if you got it right the potential if you have too short right you can make 12.6% so in this case you could lose 4.2% until you can gain 12.6 meaning this first trade there's a much better risk-reward on this trade there's a much
00:28:01it's a less favorable risk-reward because the trend isn't as much intact write the price relative to the rest of the chart doesn't look nearly as good and this is where it gets really interesting at work it's kind of subjective which is why I've been trees are so important you will have these all the time yet like I said even if you're a holder you are always going to be thinking about it
00:28:26no matter what with the exception to kind of a dollar cost averaging but even that like do you keep doing it do you stop doing it is it still worth it when do I start it again it's this kind of decision process that you're always think about
00:28:40what's my potential downside what's my potential upside
00:28:45and you never know which way it goes but you can mitigate the downside this is probably the most important piece and if you haven't read that book trading in the zone that's a huge piece of that book really good but go check it out clean master.com store to get a copy it's really terrific book but you can you cannot control the market but you can control how you enter and exit the market you can control your own risk by setting up the tree the way you want by entering it by setting of stops by sitting at Targets and just letting it go and realizing that you have absolutely no control over what the market does you can just make her pass gas
00:29:26meaning if you set up a trade like this you can lose this trade nine times like this exact trade and obviously couldn't do this exactly 9 * row you will break even meaning if you do risk reward ratio of 9.4 you can do it nine times cuz the upside is 9 times bigger than the potential downside and you would still Break Even assuming one of those trades one because the upside would balance off the downside now I would also probably hopefully not but you make it stopped out a lot because you your stop zone is so tight but this is how you can do it
00:30:07right and similarly on the short side not with that bigger stop it's a lower risk reward but it maybe it's like a lower its you can't do it over and over again right so this is what like Marge and Traders do this kind of stuff is very tight stop losses huge upside and then they can do this over and over it's also why they can end up losing a lot of money because if it's super tight stop you got to have a perfect entry to get that huge upside with no the risk
00:30:37so this is how you think about it so now that you've seen like the mental process of what goes into these decisions and how you have no idea really what it's going to do next all you can do is make probability bets on whether it's worth it to even try to bet on the direction you start to realize that there's a few really important key 3 I always think about one you have to have a really good entry meaning app that have a very good entry point you got to have like Buy on the dip or buy right before
00:31:14y'all on the breakout or wherever it is your style of bovine is
00:31:19you need to mitigate your downside so that even if you're wrong you don't lose very much money at all right and then 3 if you really want to know the underlying Trend it's very hard like we talked about yesterday to try to buy reversals so if you know where you believe I should say that the trend is on a a bull run as not a bear run you know it's on a bull run that can give you much more confidence to to have higher risk reward ratio is on the long side similarly if you know it's on a bear run a very severe bear on you can do high risk reward ratio is on the short side but you never know which one is right or which one is wrong because some dude or some lady can fat finger seven million. Order like we saw happen yesterday and that can completely change everything that you thought to be true so you don't know anything all you can do is prepare for the best with the information that you have the charts from the new
00:32:19YouTube channels whatever it may be and these three things are how you you enter it
00:32:27and so now when you when you hear someone said look here's what can happen
00:32:32hopefully it's not as frustrating as it used to be right because now when you say alright here's what can happen like what I just talked about with Bitcoin you can start to ask okay well what's the underlying Trend right the reason why it's so hard to be have like a lot of conviction right now is because yes we are in a
00:32:52someone of a bull run out soon as reversal more than Boron but technically speaking we are still in a bear Trent based on the moving averages right we talked about that the other day so there's a huge bear Trend but there's also a bull case to be made so do I even know the underlined trendy answer is no and so that makes it very hard to have high probability second question you ask yourself what's my entry point well if that's when you get into the minutiae and you look at okay where are we on the retracements is this a illogical level what's the rest of the market can be thinking about doing am I going to get stopped out you know does this make sense as an entry within the greater confines of the strenght in the third piece is what's my stop
00:33:40either this is saying that I saw some somehow it's like if you don't have if you don't use stop losses you're going to get stop you can stop trading Scooters or something like that. I was pretty funny and I actually think the bets if I could go back
00:33:59and do it again I definitely would have got way more crypto open 2016 but I would have use this mentality I'm not saying I would have traded but I would have been aware of it I would have actually thought about this stuff before I just blindly through money at the market and was like whatever it's always going to work out I don't need to think about this because no matter what
00:34:24it is it like in 5 years it'll be good because it wallet me that may be true my relative position in 5 years could be dramatically different to bitcoin's price may be one thing if I dress but where are the ride you have in five years is totally up to you doesn't matter if your trailer or a holder
00:34:47and that's why I'm all in with this is a game of probability it's not a binary decisions isn't just about by do I buy do I sell when do I do it what coin do I do it a lot of stuff goes into these decisions and again I'm not saying everyone's got to get on tradingview and learn how to trade and think about 5 in the candles you can be a long-term holder you can be a long-term investor but this is important to think about so that went as a long-term holder investor you get the maximum upside for your Capital you buying the right times you don't have huge drawdowns which ruin your Capital exposure like you're smart about it and maybe you buy and sell twice a year but that
00:35:36it's better than maybe doing it once a year because it saved you a ton of money or whatever it may be
00:35:42so I hope that helps I just the kind of thing I wish someone had told me this cuz it's the kind of thing that I see Traders
00:35:49you know this kind of all learned all this and they go on Twitter and YouTube and wherever
00:35:57and then they kind of throw information and I am guilty of this as well they throw information and said no this is what could do but they don't actually walk through the process of it I don't walk through here's why I could happen and hopefully make it relatable so that someone can do something about it and so I hope that this helps people in the process along with you know I think I think the tax thing I know for me for a long time this was a big mental barrier I miss still is obviously I'm not saying that taxes are not
00:36:34like they don't play a play a part in in decision-making they definitely do it so she United States but
00:36:42once you do the math it gets you start to realize like it's not as big of a deal as people as as we often think it is and that brings you back to you don't come back you look the markets and you start to realize like how there's a there's a lot I can do
00:37:02and there's nothing I can do about what this Market does unless you have a friend with 200 million bucks or maybe you have two in a million bucks and you can go move the market in which case probably should get off YouTube and go start pumping price of pick one for all of us love you really very really terrific if you did that
00:37:21TGIF guys great week as always excited to see what pic when does this weekend today and this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if it just crushed it went straight to 10K it's just I don't I don't know I don't see these big thing stopping anytime soon especially as we were you know yes we talked at the 17 million scarcity think so
00:37:47we'll see I'm probably going to hang out the sidelines just let my Holdings do the work if we go along if it's you can interview go for it alright have a great day guys have a great weekend and I will see you next week I peace out

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