TRANSCRIPT 🔗
00:00:00
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea, and it's a special one. We got a thing at the end of Q and A that that is just you know, I mean, it's filed away, it's archived, it's heritage. We're gonna have Ian Lincoln with us, with BEMO, and Dennis Gartman's gonna join us. And this really sets up the raging linkage. It's called a Fisherian linkage, not after Stanley Fisher, after Irving Fisher, but a linkage of how interest rates fold into inflation somewhat, how they fold into the economy, how they fold back into the bond market, and then ultimately into the stock market. You get the broad idea. They don't agree. Ian Lincoln says, we're gonna see yield come down, We're gonna see disinflation set in, and boyd does Dennis Gartman go the other way. It's the great call of the last ten years. Dennis Gartman long gold short yen or gold in yen is the way the trade's called. It's been a moonshot, bigger than Coco. He reaffirmed that today look for the entire broadcast. But here is Dennis Gartman linking ten and other commodities to your inflation.
00:01:22
Speaker 2: I think we're starting to see inflationary pressures incumbent everywhere. Grain prices have stopped going down and started to go up. Meat prices have been going up for a while. Clearly, crude oil and heating oil prices have been going from the lower left to the upper right, and I think are going to continue to do so. Coppler prices, ten prices, aluminum prices have been going up. This is I think a problematic circumstance, not something that's going to go away anytime soon, and that's been one of the driving forces behind the purchase of gold, and gold's bull moved. So I'm a little concerned again that the public has gotten enamored of gold in the course of the past week or two. But to the fact that we've taken gold down fifteen or twenty dollars from its high, probably took a few of the weekends that had come into the market in the past couple of days. I think if you want to be a buyer, you've probably got another fifteen to twenty dollars on the downside in gold. But then I'd be a buyer. There no question this is a global circumstance.
00:02:15
Speaker 1: It's prevailing right now, Tennis Garment with a popular view of boy do we get a lot of mails out on YouTube, we get the live chat with a lot of support for what Gartman says. Some of the street would push against it, and that's all part of the conversation. What we love to do is not move segment to segment. We're not slaves to it, but we'd love to have a set of debate across three hours of Bloomberg surveillance darkening the door. After mister Gartman was Ian lingon He's won every award in fixed income. He's at the Bankabuntral, BIMO Capital Markets, BMO, BMO Capital Markets. Ian Lingoenn writes a morning note. I'm going to say it's seven paragraphs long, it's dense, dense, dnse, it's for Global Wall Street, really formative and really opinionated. And then he'll drop a bombshell on you, as he
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did eight months ago when he said by the tenure yield price up, yield down, that hasn't worked out. I asked him if you'd reaffirm that where is the tenure going? He does not agree with Dennis Gartman.
00:03:17
Speaker 3: I think there's a strong case to be made that we end twenty twenty four with ten year yields in a range of let's call it three seventy five to three ninety five. The big question right now is how far do they back up until we start to get some dip bying. I do think that we're right up against a range where it makes sense to really load the boat between that five sixty five and five assuming four sixty five and four seventy five level and tens, I expect a fair amount of dip buying interest to come in. The caveat is that the ten year auction yesterday needed a much bigger concession to be taken down. And I think that that was simply the investor's stepping back given how much volatility there was. Mary at the moment.
00:04:00
Speaker 1: I was home yesterday, you know truth straight man. I woke up from the surveillans nap and I'm sitting there and it's Bramo on Lane three. Lisa Bramwood says, See, Tom, I told you you got to pay attention to the ten year auctions. It was ugly yesterday. Bramwell brief Beyond that, Ian Lingen there with PEMO Capital Markets, and really that is the heritage. There's two heritages to the show. The key heritage is we love to see informed differences of opinion. I'm not going around saying, oh, you were wrong Wong, Wong, wrong wong, or you were right right right, But the conversation of Wall Street and you see a partition there from Dennis Gartman and Ian Lingoln. Of course, one of the other heritages of Bloomberg is they wait in the control room for me. I mean, you know my shortened you know, one hour work day. They wait for me to ask a question that no one understands, and even sometimes informed guests don't understand. Here is Francis Donald of Manual Life throwing me under the bus. If we have higher inflation, does that mean higher nominal GDP or does inflation adjusted the GDP depress so much that we don't get an animal spirit lift. You know, Tom, once again, I think it's going to take me longer to figure out what that question is than answer it such charm, are we going to have her back of the program again? And what's interesting there is that's an algebraic equation. It's nominal GDP the top line, the GDP you're making right now, and you take out inflation equals sign and it's left with a residual. And my question was a little clumsy because I was going across three variables, going circular back to the first variable, nominal GDP, and the good Francis Donald called me out on clearly a lack of clarity there. So here's the debate. You got an animal spirit first, and then you take out inflation and you're left with this thing that Chairman Paul and everybody, Francis Donald, Yan Lincoln, Dennis Garbon look at which is inflation adjusted or real GDP and the risk and it's an ambiguity. The risk can be do we see inflation go up and stay up and what does that do to nominal g in front of it? Or what does that do to real GDP on the back end? And there's a raging debate. Nobody has a certain answer on that. I think we'll have. Francis Donald is so nice. We got ever bag, don't you think so? I think we should. It is a single best idea. We're out on Apple car Play, We're out on YouTube, search Bloomberg Podcasts for a great live Chat and we're just thrilled we're on chartable, we're on like, I'm on Apple Podcast chart and that we're building it out. Single best idea, of course, search for Bloomberg surveillance