TRANSCRIPT 🔗
00:00:00
Speaker 1: The iconic uniforms of the Niners and Raiders on the field at the same time. And, you know, we have a great hour matchup with Hondo, who's really a lot of fun. But I think there's two keys in this game. And we could talk about the game all day and all night. But to me, the passing game of the Raiders is a problem. Their passing game averages 265 passing yards per game. It's the third best mark in the league. Kirk Cousins, despite not having an efficient run game, despite not having very much talent at wide receiver and kind of a mediocre to, to less than that offensive line, he's still having an MVP type year. Cousins has been incredible. Great on third down leads the NFL and touchdown passes. This guy can find, you know, the open guy in a zone. He's, he, you know, you're not going to fool him. He's 38 at this point. It doesn't move great. You got to pressure him. The 49ers are, Two weeks ago against Michael Penix got into a game where they couldn't pressure Michael Penix and the numbers were clear going into that game. If you don't pressure Penix, he completes 78% of his passes. If you do pressure Penix, he completes 32% of his passes. Raheem Morris' defense got no pressure. What happened? Penix completed 73% of his passes and the Falcons beat the 49ers. It's the same deal this time around. If you don't put any pressure on Kirk Cousins, you're He will find Brock Bowers. He will find Michael Mayer. If you don't put any pressure on him, he'll take a couple deep shots down the field to Trey Tucker. He'll throw it out of the backfield to Ashton Genting, and he'll hand it to Mike Washington. And the Raiders haven't been running the ball. You know, I've looked at their stats. The Raiders have been under three and a half yards per carry in seven games. The Raiders have been under three yards per carry in five games. And this is despite having Ashton Gentry and Mike Washington Jr., who I think are two of the NFL's better young running backs. So, you know, Burford has moved from the Niners to the Raiders. His struggles with the Niners have continued with the Raiders. He struggles. And the Niners defensive line should be able to win against this Raiders defensive line. But how are the 49ers going to cover the great Brock Bowers? That is going to be the factor in this game. Are they going to use a safety on them? Are they going to put Jair Brown on them and follow them around? Are they going to try to put a big corner? Maybe you say, hey, Ephesians Prysock, you're our guy this week. Cover Brock Bowers. I mean, Prysock's a big corner. Do you try to cover Bowers with a corner? Do you try to cover him with a safety? Fred Warner's the best coverage linebacker of this era. Do you put him on Brock? And then you can't put it all on Brock because Michael Mayer is really good. Michael Mayer won the Mackey Award. That's the best tight end in college football. It's taken him a couple years, but he's really good. So they've got two of the better tight ends in pro football, and there go 12 personnel and put them out there at the same time. And if you don't put any pressure on Kirk Cousins, it's going to be a long day. So that is the key. You pressure Cousins, you win this game by 14 points. If you don't pressure Cousins, it could be a long day. The other factor in this game is, and it's always a factor, is turnovers. It's almost cliche to say turnovers are a major factor in the NFL, but that's really the case. The Raiders defense has forced 13 turnovers this year. That's fifth most in the NFL. And that's pretty amazing when you think about it. And then they're really not doing it on interceptions. They've got seven fumble recoveries. So that's bad news because the 49ers average a fumble per game. And... You know, if you look at the way the 49ers are playing right now, turnovers have really plagued the Niners. They turn the ball over two times in the first four games of the year. The Niners have eight turnovers in the last three games, four coming in Atlanta in week seven. And Atlanta entered week seven with just six forced turnovers all year and somehow forced four against the Niners. So turnovers don't always make– you know, it's not always– There's always there's not always a rhyme or a reason to it. Sometimes it just it just happens. So that's that's I think those are the two factors. The Raiders do not have a strong line. They're not running the ball efficiently. They don't have big time receivers. The 49ers should win on defense on defense. But Cousins is playing at a high level and he's been really good on third downs. And that is something definitely to watch for is Kirk Cousins playing. going to be able to kind of win this game by himself. You know, the last time the Niners faced Cousins, he lit them up in Minnesota for 400 plus yards. And I think he completed almost 90% of his passes that day. It was an amazing performance. It really was. I mean, I don't know that I've ever seen anybody as hot as he was that night. I mean, he was incredibly hot that night. So that's something to look for. You got to put pressure on Kirk Cousins. You got to take care of the football. The Niners take care of the football, put pressure on Kirk Cousins. They should be able to run the ball down the Raiders' throats all day. And I said it that way for a reason, because the Raiders' run defense has been atrocious. The Raiders' defensive tackles. I watched that Jets game last week. Aaron Glenn should be fired. Braylon Allen was running for seven yards a pop. He got two carries in the second half. seven yards a pop. And they just said, let's go away from it. I mean, it was, it was really something to behold. The jets should have won that game, but the Raiders won the game. And it was all because the jets just didn't stick with the run, but the Raiders interior full run, full, full run. So Fatakazi say that 10 times fast and Tonka Hemingway, who was a great interior rusher from South Carolina. You know,
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those are the interior guys. You know, they also have Thomas Booker and Adam Butler, but their interior line is just getting moved. And so Quay Walker and N'Kobe Dean are sitting there with big tackle totals. But when you watch the film, you're like, where are the defensive tackles? And the defensive tackles just get pushed out of the way. So I think this is a big game for Poonie, a big game for Colby, a big game for Brendel. I expect the Niners interior to really dominate the Raiders and to run the heck out of the football game. And run it and run it and run it and run it and keep running it. I mean, that to me is the game plan. Two quick notes on this thing. Not on the game, but on the Niners. Tom Pelissero put it out this morning that the 49ers are among teams calling around the NFL looking for wide receiver help. This is not a surprise to any of you guys or me, right? Because we've been talking about this for weeks, that the Niners are looking for receivers. Now, the names, he includes names here. He says, including Brian Thomas Jr., Josh Downs, and Calvin Ridley. And it's really, you know, the first two guys are going to cost you a third-round pick. And the last guy, Ridley, is going to cost you a sixth-round pick or maybe a seventh-round pick or some kind of a late-round pick swap. So if you don't want to trade anything of value, maybe you flip a, you know... You know, Calvin Ridley in a sixth for for Calvin Ridley in a seventh and something like that, something like that. If you know and maybe that's the solution. You know, Calvin Ridley was really good at Bama. He's not old. He's older, but he's not he's not old. He's he's right around, you know, middle age, 30 or so. If you get the player that that came out of Bama, you're getting a really good player, but he hasn't really played a whole lot. He's in a bad offense in Tennessee. The quarterback's struggling, and he just doesn't get the ball a lot. I don't know what he's got left, but he could be an X receiver that could give you insurance against a Mike Evans injury. Brian Thomas Jr. is purely an X, boundary X wide receiver. That's what he is. He's not going to play other spots, so he is exclusively an insurance policy on Mike Evans. So if you really are concerned about Evans, maybe Brian Thomas Jr. makes sense. Maybe Calvin Ridley makes sense. If you're feeling good about Evans and the latest that we have from Kyle Shanahan is exactly that. They're feeling good that some of the Achilles soreness and stiffness and pain is quieted down and they feel like he's not ready to go yet, but that he's making significant progress and that he's going to make a comeback. Well, if you feel like Evans is going to make a comeback, then he is your X receiver. And then Josh Downs makes lots of sense.
00:09:01
Speaker 2: Why?
00:09:01
Speaker 1: Because Josh Downs is a slot receiver return man. So if you really want to upgrade your receiving core, right now you're down wide receiver one, Mike Evans, wide receiver two, Dajon Stripling, wide receiver three, Debo Samuel, but they're all coming back. Demarcus Robinson's coming back for this Raider game. I expect him to play a significant role. I like what I'm seeing out of Jordan Watkins, so there's five right there. But if you added a guy like Downs, that would basically say to Jacob Cowing, you're out. You're no longer going to be up on game days. You're not going to be the wide receiver four, five, or six. You're going to be, you know, inactive and Downs is going to be the punt returner. Downs is going to be the slot receiver. If you if you really want to upgrade Jacob Cowling, then Josh Downs is the answer. And a third round pick seems like a pretty palatable price tag. As I said, if you want to pay for the insurance policy on Evans, then go get Brian Thomas with the third or go use a sixth or a seventh on Calvin Ridley. So that's what it sounds like the Niners are thinking about. Now, what about defensive end? They didn't have any pass rush against Michael Penix. They let him sit back there and carve him up. There was way too much space. Every time he dumped it to the flat, guys were wide freaking open. So Do they have any pass rush? Bosa's coming back this weekend. What does he produce? What does the pass rush look like? The Niners put zero rush on Cousins, and he carves them up like a Thanksgiving pumpkin, or since it's in November, like a Thanksgiving turkey. I should say a Halloween pumpkin. There's no Thanksgiving pumpkin. But we do have pumpkin pie sometimes on Thanksgiving. I'm confusing the issue. But you know what I'm saying. You see me working over here. If he carves them up, maybe they need a defensive end. Maybe they need Josh Sweat. Maybe they need, you know, Khalil Mack. You know, maybe they need, you know, there's any number of defensive ends that are out there. Maybe they need to make a phone call to Nick's brother and see if he'll come out of retirement. That, to me, I think is a long shot. So that's one of the stories out there, Tom Palacero breaking that. The other story is that the rap sheet says Brandon Ayuk has not officially been reinstated after his meeting yesterday in Santa Clara with 49er business people. He owes the 49ers $ 13 million or somewhere in that neighborhood. IUK's plan, according to the rap sheet, is to be on the roster and to be ultimately released by the Niners and to be able to handpick whatever team he wants to join. And then rap sheet goes on to say the NFL is expected to give the 49ers a two-week roster exemption if IUK is reinstated, meaning the team wouldn't have to do anything immediately. I do believe you have to be on a list of some kind. You don't have to be on an active roster, but you have to be on a list to be able to play in the postseason at some date. And I don't have that date in front of me, but I believe that that's why you're seeing action right now, is that if Iyuk wants to get back, and it sounds like he does, if he wants to be able
to play in the playoffs, and I think he probably does, he's got to be on somebody's something list, either injured, NFI. He's got to be on some list. by a certain date. And I'm not, I don't think it's the trade deadline date. I think it's like week 12 or week 13, but it's looming. So they want to get this done, but there's this little, there's this little, you know, hurdle of the $ 13 million bonus money that he has in his account that the Niners are like, Hmm, that should be in our account. So there has to be some go between the players union, the management council, the 49ers, the lawyers, Rosen house, they all get together. I'm sure we'll have more information on this in the days ahead. But that's where things stand with IUK. That's where things stand on the trade deadline. And that's where things stand with the Niners and the Raiders with one more day until game day. All right, let's do this. Let's take a timeout. The great Raph producing. We caught up with Hondo Carpenters of one of our favorite guys. And we're going to let you listen to some of that conversation next as we continue. It's 49er forecast as we get you ready for the Niners and the Raiders in week nine. On a beautiful day in the Bay Area. And, of course, you're listening to the Sports Leader. KMBR, the Sports Leader. All right, welcome back to Niners Nightly. Larry Krueger with you on this Tuesday, November the 2nd. And joining us as we look ahead to Sunday, Niners and Raiders, is Hondo Carpenter. And I'm sure you guys know that name. Hondo's been covering the Raiders for a while now. And he's with us on the Sports Leader. Hondo, how are you?
00:13:38
Speaker 2: Lloyd, thanks for having me on, Larry. It's a pleasure to be with you, and I'm grateful for the opportunity.
00:13:42
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk a little bit about... I know you've been talking. You've got your own sources and talked to a number of people around the league. What are you hearing? You were kind of teasing me with it before we went live. What are you hearing as far as the 49ers and the intel that people are sharing going into this matchup with the Raiders in Week 9?
00:14:00
Speaker 2: Well, you know... Here is the thing that people need to understand. For years, I have felt like the 49ers have had a Super Bowl quality team. And I think the same this year. But where they hurt themselves, literally, is they're such a physical football team that when you get to the end of the year, you always find them beaten up. And it's not because they're weak. It's because they literally beat the daylights out of people for 17 weeks. If I'm the Niners, I am literally screaming and yelling at the moronic idiots in the NFL League office pushing for an 18th game. That's just stupid. Shouldn't even be considered. Just like the foreign games are just dumb. And only ones who want it are the ones interested purely in the money. The players don't want it. Management doesn't want it. Coaches don't want it. And so for the 49ers, if they can stay healthy, they're clearly the Super Bowl favorite. And years ago, Don Shula said to me that the team that wins the Super Bowl is not the best team usually. It's the healthiest team. And think about that. That was when there was a lot less games. But that's how the NFL works. And so there are three things that have to happen. First of all, the 49ers are good enough to play poorly and have to beat the Raiders in themselves. The Raiders cannot come into Santa Clara and beat themselves and the 49ers. And to beat them, they're going to not only have to play perfect football, they can't they're going to have to have a lot of help from the Niners. But there are three things in talking to people around the league that have to happen. Number one, I think Brock Purdy is one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Paying him to me was a no-brainer. I love the way the national media tried to portray it as if it was a debate. There was no debate. You guys have an absolutely terrific head coach and an absolutely underrated general manager. I think who's the top five general manager in the league. and you knew they were going to play Brock, and they should have. But if you're going to beat him, he's got better wheels, but he's a younger version of a Kirk Cousins and a Matthew Stafford. You cannot let him sit in the pocket. You have to move him out of the pocket. And so, number one, the first thing you have to do is you have to get pressure. If the Raiders don't get pressure, there's zero chance they win this football game because of a couple of reasons.
00:16:41
Speaker 1: First of all, Your.
00:16:43
Speaker 2: Offense is essentially the Raider offense, which is predicated on getting the ball out quick and the short attacking passing game and getting the yards after the catch. And so you have to have pressure. So number one is you've got to force Brock Purdy to have to make quicker decisions than he wants to. It's not because I think he's dumb.
00:17:01
Speaker 1: I don't.
00:17:02
Speaker 2: I think he's an elite young quarterback. But where he struggles is when he's pushed off a high center and he's got to make a quick one. The second one is self-inflicted wounds by the 49ers. They're good. They know they're good. They're physical. They know they're physical. And sometimes there comes a little bit of an overconfidence with that. And they'll make some mistakes. No big deal. We'll get over it. And so you just have to hope there's enough of them for you to capitalize on. But the third one, and I'm looking at my notes here, so I apologize for looking down, is staying patient. and simply exploiting and taking advantage of when there's an injury. Because very few games, and you know this, Larry, better than me, very few 49er games do they not go through without somebody getting injured, even if it's just banged up for one game, and then being able to exploit that. But this is a great football team. This is not a good football team. This is a
great football team that the Raiders need a lot of help upset. Now, having said that to you, this is not the Raiders of even last year. This is a team that's going to absolutely come in and try to go toe-to-toe against a better team. But this Raider team should have beaten Kansas City and should have beaten the Bills, who I think are two excellent teams. I think any one of your fans would agree with that. The Raiders beat themselves. The Bills and the Chiefs did not beat them. And if they play that kind of game and they can get some help from San Francisco, I think that's how they get the upset. But make no mistake, this is the best football team the Raiders have played all year, and they've played the Patriots, the Chiefs, the Rams, and the Bills. That tells you about how much respect there is in the Raiders' building for San Francisco.
00:18:58
Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about the Raiders' season, Hondo, because it's been interesting. They got off to a 3-0 start. They beat the Dolphins. They beat the Chargers in Week 2. They beat the saints in week three and they had, they were right there against Kansas city in week four. Then new England took them apart and they lost a really hard fought game to Buffalo. That, that game could have gone either way. And they lost to the Rams. The Rams jumped them early Raiders came back, but Rams jumped them early. And then they just put up 38 and beat the jets at MetLife over the weekend. So, They won three in a row. They lost four in a row. Now they've won a game. How would you describe the, you know, the first eight of eight games? How's the first half of the season look from your vantage point?
00:19:44
Speaker 2: Complete overachievement. He won't win it because they're not going to win enough games. but Clint Kubiak in my opinion has been coach of the year absolutely phenomenal this has been some great coaching now I got to remember the Raiders there are some positions on this team the Raiders don't even have players like they don't have a WR1 they literally don't have one and they know they don't They're very thin defensive line and offensive line. And they are extremely young at defensive back and wide receiver. And they knew all of that, but they knew it was a rebuilding year. And so Tom Brady and John Spitek, the general manager, and Clint Kubiak coming into this year were like no shortcuts. The NFL is better, and you know the old Bay rivalry. 49ers fans hate the Raiders. Raiders hate the 49ers. But I don't care who you are. You can hate whatever team you want. I'm not a fan of either one. But the NFL is better when San Francisco is good, and it's better when the Raiders are good. The ratings prove that. And so what happens is they've come in this year knowing where they're weak, they're thin, and where they don't have players. And if just overachieved Kirk cousins is the best quarterback in the playing like the best quarterback in the NFL. I'm not saying he's, he's Brock. I'm not saying he's,
he's, he's Patrick Mahomes, but he's leading the league in touchdown passes. One of the leaders in touchdown yardage, I mean, in passing yardage and he's just attacking down the field. Now I am going to tell you this. I think Kittle is a great tight end. I don't think he's a good tight end. I think he's a great tight end. I think he's the second best, best tight end in the NFL, but he's not Brock Bowers. And, and that is not disrespecting of Kittle, who is phenomenal, who is elite, who's a hall of famer, but Brock Bowers is whatever field he steps on. There are more important positions like quarterback, but he's the best football player I've seen in 30 years. And he just does things double team, triple team. Kirk Cousins told me last week, you just, you throw the ball to him even when he's covered because he just finds a way. I mean, he made a one-handed catch in New York that was unbelievable and just put his hand out and hope the ball hit him in the hand and he made it. And so, you know, this is a team that's overachieved. This is a team. If San Francisco comes out and plays like we know they can and takes the lead and just doesn't give them breathing room, puts their foot right on the Raiders neck, they're going to win this one easily. But, if they can't let the Raiders stick around, this is a scrappy group of players. And I'll explain it to you this way. And you, you'll love this Larry. Cause you've been in the sports business. Like I have for a few years, I see some gray hairs on your head. Like, um, they are like facing Mike Tyson. When Mike Tyson was good in elite, the Raiders have a puncher's chance here. They proven it against the bills. They proven it against Kansas city here. And, if San Francisco overlooks it, makes some mistakes, has an injury, and they let the Raiders stick around, the longer the Raiders are in it. I mean, they were down nine points in the fourth quarter, came back and won. They've been down double digits in this season in the fourth quarter. The Raiders are going to be like Rocky Balboa, and they're going to be undersized and undermanned, but they're going to just keep coming. And it reminds me of that old Rocky four when Adrian tells him not to fight Ivan Drago and he says, you know, he's probably going to beat me, but to beat me, he's going to have to kill me because I'm willing to die for this. And obviously we're not making light of this about players death, but the reality is, is they're going to have to knock the Raiders out. Cause this isn't the Raiders of old. They want this game in a phone booth. They want the physicality. They want the fist fight. And they're very happy with that. And they're going to play for 60 minutes. And that's going to be really fascinating. Listen, nobody's pretending San Francisco is not the better football team. That's not even up for debate. But what I'm going to be interested in seeing, does San Francisco play down to the level of competition? Or do they play the standard? Nick
Saban years ago said to me about teaching his players how You're not playing the team on the schedule. You're playing yourself. You're playing the standard you have. He got that from Bill Belichick. And what's fascinating to me is to see how Tom Brady's influence on the organization's coming. And we know how great of a coach that the 49ers have. We know the great GM, the great leadership, what a great staff. But the issue is going to be, do the 49ers come down and play down to the level? Or do they come in and play like the 49ers? If they do, Raiders don't have a chance. But, boy, if they let them stick around, you're going to have a dogfight in Santa Clara. Yeah.
00:24:54
Speaker 1: No, I agree with everything you said. If the 49ers play as soft defensively against Cousins as they did against Pennix, you know, that's one way the Raiders could win. Cousins is playing well. He lit them up in Minnesota a few years ago, completed like 85% of his passes, threw for 400 yards. Um, he's playing at a really, really high level for sure. If they let cousins play at that high level and don't pressure them, um, it's, you know, they could lose the game. The other factor I think is Dylan lobby. You know, I saw the jets kind of kick the ball away from lobby early in that game, but then he of course had a 95 yard kickoff return. He's the best in the league right now. Um, he's a huge factor in this game. You know, that was a great find for, for spy tech and Brady to find lobby. Um, You know, so there are ways offensively the Raiders have two really good tight ends. I mean, you mentioned Bowers, but there's also Michael Mayer from Notre Dame. I got to ask you, though, what what is the deal with with Ashton Gentry? I mean, two carries for him last week against the Jets, 25 carries for Mike Washington Jr. Is Gentry in the in the Kubiak doghouse or I know they've struggled to run it. The Raiders on the average to nine a carry. But what's going on there?
00:26:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's not in the doghouse, regardless of what clickbait or national people. It's just like I reported in May that Kirk Cousins was going to be the starter, and that was not up for debate. And all training camp, the national media, what are they going to do? Every day in practice, people would ask Clint Kubiak if he picked a starter, and he would just look at him like, it's Kirk. I mean, you know this. People love the clickbait crap. That's what I call it. Ashton is in no doghouse. It's just Ashton has not been producing, and Mike Washington continues to get better. I think you're going to see a lot of Mike Washington on first and second down, a lot of Ashton Genting on third down, where he is an absolute weapon in the passing game. That doesn't mean you won't see him on first and second down nor the Washington. They want Washington to continue to develop. They've in no way given up on Ashton, but you know, it's hard when you're getting battered and you're a wide zone type player that likes to
run and look for the hole and dug in, you know, dip through it and you're getting battered and hit before you even get out of the backfield. Last year, it had been, Years since anyone in the NFL had a worse yardage of where he was touched in the backfield every carry. And the Raiders offensive line has struggled. Now, it's better now. It's playing better. But still, Mike Washington's earned those reps. He's getting them. But there's no doghouse for Ashton. They still believe in him. They want him. And he's a young player, a second-year player. And that's just part of the growth process.
00:28:05
Speaker 1: Um, what about, you mentioned the offensive line, you know, there's, I saw some rumors this morning that some teams are knocking on the Raiders door about Jackson powers, Johnson, are the Raiders going to do any selling at the deadline or is, and if so, who's going to move or, or are they going to stick with Jackson powers and they're going to stick with cousins and they're going to stick with gentee and they're going to, they're not moving any of their guys, or do you think they're open for business and you just got to call spy tech and make them an offer?
00:28:33
Speaker 2: So a couple of interesting things here. A couple of things. You know, JPJ was the starter, lost his job. That Caleb Rogers didn't perform well, and they brought in the rookie who was the number one offensive lineman in the second best conference in college football, the SEC, Trey Zune III. And Trey Zune played really well last week. I would anticipate... that he's going to probably be the starter on Sunday. I would think he was, he's earned it. And so, yeah, I think they would absolutely listen to some trade spec, you know, some trade. I don't think they're going to be sellers in the traditional sense of throwing in the, in the towel on the season. They'll absolutely move guys who aren't part of the future, whatever player that may be. And then there may be some guys that are, Maybe not necessarily long-term, but they're willing to take a comp pick by keeping them because they're competitive. and in the playoff run this year. They're not going to throw away their playoff run just to sell somebody. Now, if somebody makes a stupid offer, you have to do that. But the reality is, I think there are always going to be buyers and sellers, always, every year, because that's the mentality here. You know what Brady's mentality is. It is a cutthroat, We want to win. I think Brady would fire Spytek or himself as an owner if he thought the team couldn't get better. But they're going to be buyers, and they don't mind paying a high price. Look what they paid for Tyler Linderbaum. If it makes sense in the long-term vision. But everything has to fit the long-term here. So are they sellers? Yes. For players that aren't part of the plan?
00:30:27
Speaker 1: No.
00:30:27
Speaker 2: But no, they're not sellers because they've thrown in the towel at all. They're not. They want the playoffs and
they think they have a road to, you know, nine wins, maybe steal a 10th. And I think 10 would get them in. I don't think nine would, but still they think there's a path there and they're going to fight for it.
00:30:46
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the defense. Rob Leonard is the defensive coordinator. You know, it's an interesting defense. You got Max Crosby up front. He's got three sacks on the year. They've rebuffed efforts to trade him. They tried to move him, and then, of course, it didn't work out. But they also brought in N'Kobe Dean. He's been awesome. They brought in Quay Walker. He's been pretty good. I liked what I saw of Jeremy Chin in this game against the Jets. And they've got some other guys. They've got the former Cal Bear, Masses. You've got Traydon Stukes, who made a really nice play early in that game in the end zone. They brought in a lot of different faces here. But defensively, if you look at the numbers, the numbers are bad. I mean, the numbers say the Raiders are not a good defensive team. They're not given, you know, they're giving up points and giving up yards. You know, the last what the last five weeks.
00:31:42
Speaker 3: 30, 45, 33, 35, 33.
00:31:42
Speaker 1: They're last in the league in yards per play. They're 30th with a 103.2 passer rating allowed. Tell me a little bit about this defense. My Raider fan friends say, no, no, it's improved quite a bit. How do you see their defense this year so far?
00:32:01
Speaker 2: Well, they know what they don't have. So let me give you an example. They have three young, young corners, Darian Porter, who's a sophomore, but who's transitioning as a wide receiver for at Iowa State. And he's a promising young player. I don't know that he's going to play this week. He's suffered a groin injury versus the Jets. Hezekiah Massis has three interceptions. And Jermod McCoy, who many thought was the best corner in this last draft, had some knee concerns, who finally got some decent minutes at the New York Jets. Trayden Stukes is a starting safety. So they're very young, and they know that, and they know they're going to take their lumps with young guys. But I want to say this to you. The defensive line outside of Max Crosby and Adam Butler has been bad. Tonka Hemingway, a sophomore, has been good, and I'm going to give him grace because of his age. So really, Butler, Tonka, and Max. on the opposite defensive end side. And they got two assisted tackles last week. And so everybody is double teaming Max, chipping them and then rolling away from them. So now if you are the 49ers and you think, well, maybe we don't want Brock moving a lot, then you're going to have to look at, all right, the game plan's going to be double team Max every time. And if he gets by, you hold him because the ref can't call holding every play. And we all know that's true. That's not going to happen. But the Raiders' defensive ends, not named Max Crosby, are on a milk carton. And you can't find them. And you know as well as anybody, Larry, when you cannot get pressure, it doesn't matter how good your corner is. I mean, Aaron Rodgers goes on the Pat McAfee show and called Taron Johnson one of the best defensive players in the NFL. And Eric Stokes has played great for the Raiders, and they re-signed him as a free agent. But last week, Eric Stokes, everyone talked about, oh, he looked bad, he looked bad. And I had one NFL executive tell me, well, how's he supposed to look in one-on-one coverage with Omar Cooper and Garrett Wilson and you don't have a pass rush? So Geno Smith is just sitting there waiting. I mean, eventually those guys are going to get open and Geno has the arm to get the ball there. So the Raiders are going to have to invest. They thought they invested big. They spent $ 11 million on... Malcolm Koontz, who is in his sixth year, and outside of a half a year, when Josh McDaniels got fired, where he looked like Khalil Mack for a half a year, he's done nothing. They're paying him $ 11 million, and he played, I think it was 48% of the defensive snaps last week against the Jets and had nothing to show for it. Quiddie Paye, he's getting $ 16 million a year, and he had two assisted tackles. He played 63% of the defensive reps. And they're not getting any pressure on that defensive line. So teams are able to run and teams are able to pass. And until they get the defensive line fixed, well, the Raiders knew the defensive line was an issue. I had people in the building telling me that. So I wrote it prior to training camp. I wrote it during training camp. I think they would love to do some upgrades there, especially at defensive tackle. If the right offer came along, a good young player that they can add that's going to be here a while, I think they would jump at that. I think they would love to get a great defensive end to go opposite of Max Crosby. But, you know, you've got $ 16 million in quitty pay again for the next two years. Coots won't be back. So, you know, you've got to figure out how much of your salary cap are you willing to do that. So there's a lot of question marks, but that is the real problem. Quay Walker's been great. N'Kobe Dean's been great. You know, again, the problem with the Raiders has been young players making young player mistakes, and I've got no problem with that. I don't even criticize those guys. I just point out, rookie mistake. That's what rookies do. But the defensive line has been bad outside of, you know, Max Tonka and Adam Butler, and they've got to get that fixed. But as you know, when you do it right and you rebuild the right way, There's probably not going to be a whole lot of improvement until you get to free agency in the draft next year.
00:36:43
Speaker 1: What do you think is their number one issue on defense? Because even when they were winning those games at the beginning of the year, they still were, you know, efficiency wise, they're getting beat in the run game by their opponent almost every week. I think
they've gone under three yards a pop for a game, like maybe three or four times. And in this game, Braylon Allen ran for seven yards a carry. against them is it the run defense that's the most valuable how do you see as i know there are work in progress if.
00:37:15
Speaker 2: You can't stop teams from running in the nfl you can't beat them period i don't care what anyone says you know that i know that bill walsh knew that barney the dinosaur knows it and anybody that stayed at a holiday inn express And it's just, it's the reality of if you can't stop the run in the National Football League, you can't win. Because establishing the run establishes everything else. Now, if I'm the Raiders, you can say true to your offense. I would switch it up a little bit. I would attack with the pass to set up the run. Because I think I know exactly what the 49ers are going to do because all the good teams have done it. They're going to load the box, play zero-man coverage, and they're going to double-team Brock Bowers and dare somebody else on this team to beat them. And they're going to put all the pressure on Kirk. And we know what that story's been. It's been a nightmare. And if I'm the Raiders, I'm going to be like, all right, we're going to come out with a ton of slants, quick digs, And we're going to try to force the Niners out of the box to open up the run. I would use the pass to set up the run. But either way, that's the Raiders' biggest weakness on defense is they cannot stop the run.
00:38:39
Speaker 1: They really can't. They really can't. But, you know, and not only that, Braylon Allen's a big back, and he was getting a full head of steam going on most of those runs. The Bears looked amazing this week winning in Seattle. And there's a lot of talk that the Bears and the Niners are both looking for an edge rusher. Is there any way Max Crosby gets dealt before the 10th? Or have they crossed that bridge and decided against it? Because they had him moved. A lot of people say, oh, he's not available now. But other people are saying, you know what? Wait, make the Raiders an offer and you may see he is available. What's your guess on that?
00:39:19
Speaker 2: Okay, so let me just say this. I was the one who originally started talking about max getting traded last year. Okay. Um, max wanted out and i can tell you right now factually max doesn't want out i it's personal conversations that i've had with him okay i'm telling you that factually i'm also going to tell you the raiders don't want to get rid of them having said that I find it hard to believe if there was a contending team like the Niners, the Bears, the Hawks, the Lions, if they called the Raiders and offered two first-round picks, even though he doesn't have a no trade, I do not believe the Raiders would move him. But I think it would be hard for the Raiders not to call Max and say, listen, I know that you want championships. You want to be known as Kobe. You want to be the legendary guy. We're not
looking to shop you. But we do have two first-rounders here and a chance for you to go win a Super Bowl. What do you want? And I think that's a very interesting conversation. But I want to make this very clear because when you cover the team like I do, people who are aggregators like to say, Raider Insider says, You know, Max, I'm not saying that. I'm saying I know the Raiders. I know Max. Consider Max a personal friend. And I think that's a conversation you got to have. And I don't know how that conversation would go. I can tell you he doesn't want to go. And I can tell you they don't want him to go. But you and I both know, sometimes when the clock starts to tick, And all of a sudden, you're not young anymore. You've had a couple injuries. And he's healthy, by the way, and playing like an animal. What does he think? I don't know. That's why that's a conversation the Raiders would have to have. And I personally, gut level, if it's to a contender and it's to first-round picks, I can't imagine them not having the conversation, but I won't predict what would happen, but I would not dismiss it as a flat no.
00:41:49
Speaker 1: Wow. Hondo Carpenter with us on the UMA guest line. Two last ones before we let you go. The buck stops with who in this organization? Clint? Tom?
00:41:58
Speaker 2: Tom Brady.
00:41:59
Speaker 1: Spytek? It's Tom Brady over Spytek? Or, I mean, is Spytek just carrying out the wishes of Tom Brady? Is that what that is?
00:42:10
Speaker 2: No. No, no, let me just say something here, okay? I've been reporting this for years since Josh McDaniels got the job. Tom Brady was the dominant voice, okay? But he is the voice now. He is the voice of God in that building. Now, one thing, Tom isn't in there every day. And I don't think it's, in the NFL, I don't believe you can be the dominant voice and not be in the building, period, period. I've said that publicly and I stand by it. I stand by it. But what they did last year is when they made the decision to move on from Pete Carroll. And I want to make it very clear. John Spytek is exonerated from any and all responsibility last year. There was a lot of problems with the Raiders and John Spytek had nothing to do with any of them. But John Spytek, they listened to him. And now one advantage is, and I think people have mislabeled Tom here, and I'm not a Tom Brady apologist, but I'm not a Tom Brady hater. Tom Brady and John Spitek, they played football at Michigan. They were together with the Buccaneers. They are the exact same guy. John Spitek hates it when I call him analytical. He says, I prefer thorough, whichever word you want. It's semantics to me. John is an analytics, thorough guy. It's why they had to have Clint Kubiak. They are three in one. None of the three are afraid to disagree with the other two. But the dominant voice is Tom, but Tom understands he's not in that building every day. He's going to listen to Spytek. Spytek runs the day-to-day as far as personnel and roster. Clint
Kubiak has total authority of game day, all of that kind of stuff. But Tom Brady is the dominant voice. And, and I am, I was very unimpressed with Tom's performance last year and was very vocal about it. And I am, as far as I was unimpressed with Tom last year, I am more impressed this year at the other end of the spectrum, because he said, this is the direction I want to go. He set the map. He's trusted Tom. John Spitek to pick the route, and Clint Kubiak's driving the truck. And I love the way they've done it. I love the way they work together. This is a healthy franchise, and it's been a couple of decades since you could say that about the Raiders.
00:44:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, no question. No question. Is there any chance Colton Miller gets traded? Their offensive tackle spot is an interesting spot, and I know you've written about this. I think most people expect Colton to stay there. Is there a chance he gets moved?
00:45:09
Speaker 2: Well, before the year there, I had a conversation with someone. I won't say who about, you know, if they weren't in the playoff hunt and the year was going bad, you got Colton with another year left on his deal. He's making 20 plus million a year. you know, like maybe a team that was a contending team that loses a tackle like the Rams, but quite frankly with his contract and he has not been terrible, but he hasn't been great. He hasn't lived up to his contract. And I do, could I see a scenario that he got traded? Yes. Do I think there's any team in that scenario right now? I don't. Um, But again, that is a guy that I don't think anybody on this roster not named Brock Bowers and not named Fernando Mendoza is untouchable. But I don't know that there would be as much interest in Colton right now based on how the season's gone.
00:46:17
Speaker 1: Two last thoughts on your way out the door. Give me a quick thought on Brock Purdy from afar. What do you see when you see Brock Purdy? And give me a quick thought on Mendoza. I think everybody loves Mendoza. He went to Cal. He's obviously a great kid. I think the Raiders are doing this thing right, by the way. A lot of times guys get hurt before they know what the heck they're doing. They're making sure that this kid knows what he's doing before they throw him to the wolves. So I really like that. But give me your thoughts on Mendoza and Purdy on the way out.
00:46:48
Speaker 2: I think Purdy's the top five quarterback in this league. I think he's absolutely elite. I had a general manager once tell me there are eight teams in the NFL that, that know that they have a core or they have the confidence that they know that quarterback can go win me a Superbowl. Then there are eight teams that hope they have that guy. And then there are 16 wishing they were one of the other 16. Brock Purdy's a guy. The moment's not too big for him. The money doesn't change him. He's elite. He's smart. He is engaging. I know several people that know him well. And I think that guy is a great quarterback. Again, to me, if I was told pick the top five quarterbacks in the NFL, I would have them at five for sure. And if I'm going off of betting on the future um because of his age I'd probably have him at four or maybe even three wow um I am sold buyer on Brock Purdy and got a ton of respect Fernando Mendoza I did a story last year I asked multiple NFL executives to rate him in comparison to the previous three quarterback classes and they ranked him as the best quarterback prospect of the last four years I can tell you this, going back to the national clickbait crap, and they talk about, oh, Fernando's not starting because the Raiders are disappointed. Anyone that wrote that is either a bold-faced liar or has no real connections in the building. It's one or the other, because they are more happy with Fernando Mendoza today than they've ever been. This kid is the absolute real deal. Now, remember, I've been doing this for almost 30 years. I covered Matthew Stafford. I know what a number one quarterback looks like. I've experienced it. Well, it's unfair because I know him. I love Matthew Stafford, the man, and I love the quarterback. That's factual. He looks better than Matthew Stafford ever looked as a rookie. That man, he... Matthew Stafford had the best arm I ever watched up front with my own two eyes. He's got a better arm than Matthew. I have seen him throw the ball 60 yards, just standing there, bam, and right on the money. He's smart. He's extremely humble. I'm going to be truthful about I know a lot of elite players who when you meet them, and you know this, Larry, you've done it a long time, who aren't the person that's the persona. And I can tell you, I wondered, is this going to be an aw shucks kid? And he is absolutely what you see is what you get. I've known Kirk Cousins for 22 years. Kirk Cousins is not just a guy cover. He's a personal friend. I'm friends with his parents, his brother, his family. I've known him all the way back to Holland Christian High School in Holland, Michigan. I went to every single game of his college career. I was a beat writer covering Michigan State. He is Kirk Cousins 2.0. And exactly Kirk 2, by the way. Just very humble. His teammates love him. They don't like him. They love him. They believe in him. If Kirk were to go down tomorrow, nothing changes. They believe in him. Now he's going to have to learn the NFL game because it's not college, but Fernando Mendoza is the absolute real deal. And based what I saw with Matthew and based what I've seen with him, I am all in telling you, if I was told your life is dependent on it, is he a franchise quarterback or not? I'm going all in he is. I've not seen one thing That even makes me question that. And I am all in on him. And I can tell you this, the only people more sold on me outside of his parents are the Raiders. They are buyers. They, and you know, Larry, you've done this a long time. It's not what these guys say at press conferences. It's what they
say off the record. And when you do what I do, you talk to them off the record. You know what the players are thinking. You know what management's thinking. You know what coaches are thinking. And I can tell you this, they are, you know, they get up there, he's got a lot to learn and he's still learning. Well, they're going to try to do everything they can to protect him because they understand he's going to come down to earth. But I'm telling you, when you get up, should have seen what he did or wow. I mean, the other night, I don't remember who told me this. It was on the record, so I don't mind telling you. I think it was Robbie Leonard. It could have been Joe DeCamillis, the special teams coordinator. It could have been Andrew Giannouko, the offensive coordinator. It was one of those guys. Talks about walking through the building. Everybody's gone to go get food in the cafeteria. And he's out there looking at the game, the plays for the game on his phone and running through by himself, practicing each play on the script. Nobody's in the building. It's just him. Because if Kirk goes down, he's going to be ready. I would encourage you, if you're at the game on Sunday, Larry.
00:52:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be there.
00:52:43
Speaker 2: You'll see. Okay. If you're going to be there, I want you to do me a favor. Since you're a football guy, I want you to watch Mendoza when the Raiders offense is on. So here's what he does. He's got the green down. The play gets called to Kirk. He looks at his wristband like when Kirk is, and then he watches everything Kirk done. But when Kirk comes off the field, Kirk goes right to him, and anything he saw in that series, he's asking Kirk, hey, can you tell me why you did this? Or Kirk saying, did you see me do this? Let me tell you why. It's a teaching session. It's unbelievable. And I've said this for months, and I'll say it right here on your show.
00:53:25
Speaker 3: 10 years from now or 15 years from now, because Kirk's been in the league 15 years. 15 years from now, if Fernando Mendoza is still the Raiders quarterback, we're going to all know he's on his way to the Hall of Fame.
00:53:38
Speaker 2: And I guarantee you, and I'm an old man, but I want you to remember this. There will be somebody that will say to Fernando, you know, Fernando, looking back over your career, what do you think really helped you the most? He will say Kirk Cousins. And what I love is I've known Kurt for 22 years. There's no ego with him. He's talked about, hey, when he's better than me, I want him to play. And Kurt has helped him from day one. There has never been one ounce of, I've got to push him off because I'm the starter. Kurt has been the consummate pro. It's why I think he's going to end up in a TV booth. And if he does, That's a crying shame for the game of football. Kirk needs to be a head coach.
00:54:25
Speaker 1: He's a great guy. I've interviewed Kirk a few times at the Super Bowl, and he's just a terrific guy, and that
was a great decision to bring him in and to let him play this early part of the year. A scout told me about a month ago, he said, you know what, I think Fernando Mendoza is going to be great, the same reason that Brock Kurdy is great. And I'm like, what's that? And he's like, they both love the process of pro football, and they're going to spend the time to do the reps and do all the mental reps and the practice reps and the lifting and the preparation, which happens Monday through Saturday. And then, and he's going to do that.
00:54:58
Speaker 2: Can I share a story?
00:54:59
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:54:59
Speaker 2: Do we have to, I want to share a story that one of a former 49er told me.
00:55:05
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:55:07
Speaker 2: I asked him about Purdy. I said, you know, what were your thoughts about him? And he looked at me and he said, I love that kid. I said, what, what do you love about him? He said, Other than the fact that I knew he was our starting quarterback, he goes, he is the most selfless, non-egoed player, and he goes, he still acts like he's a UDFA, and I know he isn't, but he still thinks he's Mr. Irrelevant, and he's just, his words, blessed to be in that locker room. He goes, he's so respectful of players. He's respectful of coaches. He's respectful of the organization. He goes, and I have watched him where we get off the plane and there are fans there and he will sign every rest of us are like, man, it's late. It was a road trip and he's signing every autograph and he's thanking people for asking for his autograph. And he just said to me, this was a great line. He said, he is the biggest superstar who doesn't know it I've ever met. Wow.
00:56:25
Speaker 1: I believe that. He's a very humble young man.
00:56:29
Speaker 2: He told me, I'll tell you one other story.
00:56:32
Speaker 1: Very competitive.
00:56:33
Speaker 2: If fans wouldn't know this, and I apologize for monopolizing your show, but fans wouldn't know this, but In a locker room, guys have foundations or charities or their high schools raising money for a football program or whatever. And there are a lot of guys who are stars come in and their teammates will say, hey, can you autograph this football? We're donating it to my high school or to my charity or whatever. And there's a lot of stars that are kind of jerks about it. If you're not a star player, they're not doing it for you. And this guy told me a story. He said, every single thing doesn't matter if you're a practice squad or a janitor that people bring to Brock. It's, Oh sure. I'd love to. He's those are, he's telling me those are Brock's words. Oh sure. I'd love to. And if you don't understand the NFL, that's a rarity, you know, Fernando's that way. Kirk is that way, but that's not normal. Um, And I've covered a lot of these guys. It's not normal. Now, I'm going to give a credit to Matthew Stafford. That is Matthew Stafford. But the point is that time builds trust. And the thing that I love is I'm not an insider on the Niners. I'm not pretending to be an insider. Do I know some people?
00:58:02
Speaker 1: Sure.
00:58:03
Speaker 2: That just comes with being an old man. But what I will tell you is, The next person to have anything bad to say about Brock Purdy will be the first. And his teammates trust him. His teammates love him. And that's what you have to have at your quarterback. And that young man is elite. And if I was starting a franchise tomorrow, I mean, outside of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrell, I don't have another quarterback I would pick ahead of him.
00:58:40
Speaker 1: Wow. It says a lot. It really says a lot. Hondo Carpenter covers the Raiders SI. Check him out. Awesome. Awesome. Interview, man. Really appreciate your, your, your, your time and your, your breakdown. We appreciate you. And hopefully we'll see you Sunday in the press box. Thanks for coming on KMBR.
00:59:00
Speaker 2: Thanks, buddy. Come say hi to me. I will.
00:59:02
Speaker 1: Hondo Carpenter. We got more straight ahead. It's Niners nightly on these sports leaders. All right. I hope you enjoyed some of our conversation with Hondo Carpenter. He's a great follow on X. And thanks to Hondo for stopping by. Thanks to Raph for producing. We're going to slide out of here because JD's on deck with just dubs. Dubs have been hot. A lot of Yaxel talk. Yaxels look great. Suddenly, the Warriors look like a much better team. Suddenly, since the Yaxel has shown up. So, hope you enjoyed 49er forecast. Check us out tomorrow. I'll be part of the pregame and postgame on the Sports Leader with Adam Copeland, Todd Husek, JD, and others. So, we'll see you at the stadium tomorrow. But up next, just dubs on the Sports Leader.