Pełna transkrypcja odcinka 5 Free Agent Starting Pitcher Targets for Chicago White Sox

like, we have the opportunity to sign Manny Machado for five years and 150 million. 00:06:25 Speaker 1: You have to prepare for that worst. 00:06:26 Speaker 5: Case scenario that like he has some catastrophic injury and he's on the books for 10 and 300. But if you treat us five years, 150 and say like everybody does a blood oath that we're not going to extend him after five years, if he opts out, we're going to take it as like we we got a steal signing this guy for five years and 150 million when his market value is twice that. That's something I would try to approach, not that it would work in this world, it's all theoretical, but for the next free agent, as the White Sox transition closer to Justin Ishby, however you want to phrase this to try to introduce optimism into the conversation, I would try to emphasize opt-outs as maybe something that adds value to the White Sox, even though it technically favors the player because they're always the ones who are able to judge the market and act accordingly, and the White Sox have no say in it, but If you treat it as like any opt-out is a blessing for the White Sox because they didn't want to pay him anyway, that's maybe how you might look at it if you're trying to sell. You look at the free agent market and say, Scooble's the only guy we trust. Can we make a run at him? That would be the way I would present making a run at him. 00:07:34 Speaker 1: I hope I'm wrong. I really do. I hope the White Sox surprise us. and surprise everyone and sign Tarek Skubal. Maybe a three-year, $ 150 million contract, Jeff. Would Skubal sign that? I doubt it. But Skubal is going to get paid. And even though he really is number one on everyone's list when it comes to available free agents and should be, I just think it's a pipe dream for the White Sox. When I was coming up with my top five favorite free agents starting pitching list, I was trying to identify guys that leaning towards probably not happening for the White Sox towards probably realistic for the White Sox and their spending habits. So number one on my list, if it can't be Tarek Skubal because of Jerry Reinsdorf is Freddie Peralta. Now we got a chance to watch Peralta in the post-season in the world series. And when he joined the Tampa Bay Rays after being traded from the New York Mets gym, it really felt like, and it's, looked like that Peralta had rediscovered his form when he was with the Milwaukee Brewers. And it's been four straight 30 game or more start seasons for Peralta. It's four straight seasons pitching at least 165 innings. He was the American League Championship Series MVP for the Rays. The fastball looked really strong for Peralta. We know that he's got an excellent changeup. If the White Sox are looking for an ace... I think Freddy Peralta could still be that guy because he demonstrated it for the Rays in their run at the end of the regular season and into the postseason. Now, using SpotTrack, SpotTrack is– they think his market value, Jim, is

a very similar deal that Dylan Cease signed with the Toronto Blue Jays, a seven-year contract, $ 200 million contract. 00:09:20 Speaker 3: And more. 00:09:21 Speaker 1: So let's start there on the practicality. High, medium, or low, what are the odds that the White Sox could be in the Freddy Peralta market? 00:09:30 Speaker 5: Feels like medium in terms of they'd give him a serious look or put him on the initial list, reach out to him, see what's happening. Whereas with Scooble, they just might say, nevermind, a waste of everybody's time, given what we know Reinsdorf wants to spend. But Peralta has been a popular figure in the offseason plan projects and the contracts have been all over the map. And given the year he had last year, given his very fastball forward profile, um, you know, that he's, let's see, he's 30 years old. So he'll be age 31 season next year, but like, you know, mid season birthday. So not like, you know, he's not gonna be 31 immediately, but it does give you some pause in terms of somebody, you know, watching him and hitting velocities. He hasn't hit like, is that sustainable? Can he work at that velocity all the time? Is that an October thing? Um, where the adrenaline and knowing that four to five innings may be all that Kevin Cash wants from him, then does he go back to a more ordinary brand of pitcher who was good in Tampa Bay, but also there's some positive regression? I would maybe take that 4.4 ERA overall more than what he did with the Mets or the Rays as what could be expected from him going forward. He's a tricky guy to evaluate. Really looking forward to the Fangraphs crowdsourcing just to see after all these extremes are watered down from people saying, oh, one-year deal versus seven years, the Dylan Cease deal. Yeah, I can see his contract being really hard to estimate or being one of those where it is a one-year opt-out. He maybe signs a four-year deal, but can opt out after one year after reestablishing his Milwaukee form. And then going back on the open market, like I could see that being the case, too. So hard guy to peg. 00:11:17 Speaker 1: Would he be a good fit for this White Sox rotation? 00:11:20 Speaker 3: Certainly. 00:11:20 Speaker 5: Yeah, it would be like not not that he hasn't thrown 200 innings or even 180 innings. I think that'd be the only thing gives me a slight bit of pause for saying like he's going to be the workhorse, but. Otherwise, been taking the ball 30, 32, 33, 32 starts last four years, delivering on that front. So, yeah, he is, based on the free agent markets, what the White Sox could use the most. 00:11:46 Speaker 2: Hey, Howard. 00:11:47 Speaker 3: In case you need a lawyer, here's my business card. I'm attorney Howard Ankin. 00:11:51 Speaker 5: Oh, hey, Howard. 00:11:52 Speaker 3: If you or someone you know has been hurt at work, Ankin Law can get the medical bills paid, the lost wages reimbursed, and the compensation you deserve. 00:12:03 Speaker 2: Hey, Howard. 00:12:03 Speaker 3: We're one of the largest filers throughout the state of Illinois of workers' compensation claims. We're here to help. Call 312-6MILLION. Injury law made personal. That's Ankin Law. 00:12:16 Speaker 2: White Sox fans, catch me, A.J. Pruszynski, on Foul Territory every weekday, 12 to 2 Central Time, after Sox Machine. We'll talk White Sox. We'll talk all the teams. Come here for a fun time the way baseball should be covered on Foul Territory. 00:12:29 Speaker 3: See you there. 00:12:31 Speaker 1: Visit the new Sox Machine store at SoxMachineShop.com to pick up your new white socks and Sox Machine gear. Sam Antonacci, Murataka Murakami, Tristan Peters, Chase Mydroth, and of course, the celibate for Sean Burke shirts are available. Plus new Sox Machines three-quarter zip-up sweaters and coffee mugs. Officially licensed gear from the MLB Players Association. Visit SoxMachineShop.com. All right, going to number two on my list, and he just opted out of his contract with the San Diego Padres, and that's right-handed pitcher Michael King. And the reason I have Michael King number two, Jim, again, he looked really strong in the postseason, just put in the film of King's performance against the Chicago Cubs, and he was just absolutely dominant. I thought he did a really good job against the Milwaukee Brewers as well. It is a career-high 105 innings for Michael King in 2026. And in full years as starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres, as he made this transition when he went from the Yankees to the Padres, he's had two four-war or better seasons, according to BaseballReference.com. And in 77 starts as a starting pitcher with the San Diego Padres, he had an earned run average of 3.15. And the multiple fastballs that he has, especially that sinker, which has just been devastating against right-handed hitters. I like Michael Caine as... Then my number two on the free agent starting pitching list, Jim. So let's go with the possibility of Michael King to the White Sox. SpotTrack is estimating his market value to be five years, 150 million, Jim. So not exactly cheap, but high, medium, or low, the probability of Michael King to the White Sox. 00:14:18 Speaker 5: Medium, just because I think there will be In terms of, I could see the interest being high for the White Sox, just there will be a lot of competition given the thinness of the market. So I think just based on White Sox versus the field, you'd have to say, I think the field pretty easily. So that's why I would say like medium at most, but not because of anything the White Sox are doing in terms of wanting him. Okay. 00:14:42 Speaker 1: And do you think he would be a good fit for the White Sox rotation? 00:14:46 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, one thing I'm kind of interested in him is he is a kind of a short strider, lower slot righty, like you said, multiple fastballs. So he does fit that MO that Brian Bannister likes in terms of unusual approach angles and having different kind of variants to go through the

lineup multiple times. I just wonder, you know, based on how much the White Sox pitching side struggles, you know, whether there will be any change there. In philosophy, whether it's changing personnel or just Bannister updating his priors and say, well, we have more resources so we don't have to get by on just unique features by pitchers who will accept the contracts we're giving them, like Eric Fetty, and can say like, no, we got some money to play with now so we can pursue tools. 00:15:37 Speaker 1: And I. 00:15:41 Speaker 5: Think still King ranks pretty high when it comes to individual pitch quality. But I wonder if Bannister's penchant for unique features on pitchers is less of a priority. 00:15:53 Speaker 3: But.... 00:15:55 Speaker 5: He still prefers them overall, then I think King might be the best of like, well, he's, you know, two of the last three years he's posted and, you know, posted very strong ERAs, good strikeout numbers, great, uh, you know, stat cast, uh, colors on his page when it comes to both fastball and, you know, uh, secondary pitch value to where like, yeah, he is a talented pitcher who also does the things banisters comfortable with working. Uh, and, uh, that could be something that gives, uh, Chris Getz and Jerry Reinsdorf the comfort to finally give a nine-figure contract. 00:16:31 Speaker 1: Number three on my list, and we saw him against the White Sox this postseason and during the regular season, we got traded to Cleveland, and that's left-handed starter Foster Griffin. And it was mixed results this year. When he was with Cleveland, it's not pretty. The earned run average went above five, but I thought he really pitched well in the postseason. He actually didn't walk a batter in his postseason and three outings for the Cleveland Guardians. But Foster Griffin was great with the Washington Nationals. He made the all-star team. this year. And Jim, I do have to admit, maybe his performances against the White Sox this season, he was very good against the White Sox, is a bit of a, I'm putting on rose-colored glasses when I look at Foster Griffin. But SpotTrack has Foster Griffin's market value at like four years, $ 80 million, which that would be the largest guaranteed contract the White Sox have signed a free agent beating Andrew Ben Attendee. So it's still not a $ 100 million deal. And I feel like, okay, that might be more in the White Sox wheelhouse when it comes to spending than Jerry Reinsdorf would approve. So high, medium, low, the probability of Foster Griffin being a target for the White Sox. 00:17:44 Speaker 5: Say medium, again, because of the field factor. But I think in terms of what the White Sox are more comfortable spending and also what Griffin showed, he does seem to fit the White Sox spending patterns more of just being that third option or fourth option of free agency versus top tier or even second tier. Griffin, I think overall, with Cleveland, his numbers were colored by a couple of bad starts. He

gave up eight runs over two and a third to Baltimore. Otherwise, pretty reliable for five innings or more of, you know, two run ball through looking at three quality starts out of the nine that he made. So wasn't as bad as the numbers, regular season numbers with Cleveland might lead you to believe. And then, you know, as we saw him pitch in the postseason, like that thing that helped kind of prove the regression point of just, yeah, he's pitching past. If you add those numbers, the ER drops even more. So I think he fits for somebody who can pitch efficiently, who can control the strike zone if the White Sox are looking at reducing walks. And he does a decent job of keeping the ball in the park or at least keeping the ball on the ground. They could probably work with that and feel okay about having another lefty in the rotation. Let me just look up one more thing about his stolen base numbers because that could be another thing that helps influence things offensively. yeah, six stolen bases all season in eight attempts. So if they want to use that as like an evidence of like, yeah, he helps keep the running game. Check takes the load off our catchers, uh, which was the point of emphasis when they brought on Zach Bove. Uh, he also helps towards that end. 00:19:23 Speaker 3: Okay. 00:19:23 Speaker 1: So a good fit. If spot tracks right on the market value, and that is what Foster can get in free agency. That's a big jump. Then what he signed with the Washington nationals from coming overseas, uh, We'll see if he is a realistic target for the White Sox, but at four years, $ 80 million, I feel like that is right in the White Sox wheelhouse when it comes to spending. Now, number four on my list, and I think he's going to win the title. of this offseason, Jim, of most surprising deal. And that is Baltimore left-handed pitcher Trevor Rodgers. And Rodgers is on the younger side. He turns 29 on November 13th. and he just pitched a career-high almost 170 innings this season for the Baltimore Orioles. Kind of an average season for Trevor Rodgers in 2026. 30 starts, a 4.03 earned run average. His ERA plus, according to Baseball Reference, was 101, but he was fantastic in 2025 and 18 starts. He was worth 5.3 war, even in 18 starts for the Orioles, and had an earned run average below 2. So we've known that he's had Some potential. He has a very high ceiling all the way from his times with the Miami Marlins. He's got a great chase rate. 35.6% of the time gets batters to chase. He does a great job locating fastballs up in the strike zone. But as I mentioned that he is my sleeper candidate to sign the most surprising deal in free agency. SpotTrack's market value for Trevor Rogers is six years below $ 157 million, Jim. And that feels pretty steep for his past experience. However, teams, especially analytic teams, will look for and just look at the overall stuff and say that he's got a chance to be a top 10 pitcher in Major League Baseball. And that's what top 10 pitchers in Major League Baseball make. So when it comes to probability of the White Sox being in on the Trevor Rodgers market, do you give it high, medium, or low? 00:21:28 Speaker 5: I'd say low for that number. I think he's, in terms of talent, in terms of what you think he would get, I'd say medium. But if they are like breaking the bank for a guy who hasn't necessarily shown it to that extent, or they would be paying for what analytics say versus what he's actually shown, and he's kind of making that contract on He had a good year in 2021 and a good year in 2025, but only threw 133 innings in that first year, only threw 109 in that second year. If you want somebody to post, that's asking a lot for somebody. That was his first year with Baltimore last year, throwing more than 133 innings. And to go back to the Dodgers, just talking about the Dodgers and how good they are at just creating pitching options over pitching options. It feels like the Dodgers could afford to get 133 innings out of Rogers and called a good year. But the White Sox, if they're looking for more of an anchor for the top of the rotation, or depending on whether you believe in Sean Burke, it seems like you just need to see more in order to pay him that much and try to get that from him. 00:22:44 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:22:44 Speaker 1: That's why he's number four on my list. And then number five, I mean, there's a lot of veterans that, But the veterans kind of scare me, like Kevin Gossman kind of scares me with what I saw with the Chicago Cubs. He's on the older side. You have some guys who I thought had quite a bit of potential, like Jack Flaherty, Brady Singer. I don't know what to make of Casey Mize because his time in San Diego did not look good at all, Jim. Like all these guys could be possibilities. But my number five free agent starting pitcher, For the Chicago White Sox, and this is really in their spending habits, and that's Clay Holmes, someone that was attached to the White Sox prior to the trade deadline, but ultimately went to the Chicago Cubs. SpotTrack's market value for Clay Holmes is two years, $ 28 million. So again, that's right in the White Sox wheelhouse. However, that's in almost every MLB team's wheelhouse when it comes to spending habits. And the reason why I like Clay Holmes as number five on my free agent list is that he puts the ball on the ground, Jim. We've talked about this. The White Sox have a desire in generating grounders, especially when they're playing at home at rate field. Almost 61% of batted balls against Clay Holmes in 2026 were grounders, Jim. He's difficult to barrel. And left-handed hitters this past season only had an OPS of 638. The downside is not many strikeouts and not many appearances in 2026. So how many innings can he give you? I don't know if he can be a frontline starter, Jim. He might be better suited to be your number three or number four guy in which you're hoping to get 125, 130 innings out of Clay Holmes. So when it

comes to probability, is Clay Holmes of a target for the White Sox, high, medium, or low? 00:24:34 Speaker 5: I would say medium-high. It feels like that contract they could do. The question is whether, if we're talking about two years and $ 28 million, that's the kind of contract where if he's a second starting pitcher, the White Sox sign the offseason, you've got to feel good about that. That would be a case where, oh, yeah, if he's rounding out a rotation, if he's number four and you sign, let's say, Michael King to a heftier contract, then you could say that's a pretty good thing there. That's a great off season. If you somehow add two starting pitchers and Clay Holmes is the more questionable one of the two, uh, he has these stretches where he's very effective and very efficient. And, um, you know, like you said, keeps the ball on the ground, doesn't walk many, uh, when he's like locating the ball well, and then he kind of gets in these ruts and like he's missed some time last year. So it's, not necessarily given, but he's throwing seven innings a few times, the Mets six plus a few times, the Cubs, like when he's rolling, he can roll. And I think for a two-year contract, like somebody who has that trait to get through 160 plus innings, but also have some stretches where those innings are very easy innings, that would be a great secondary investment for the rotation. 00:25:54 Speaker 1: And another guy that I was thinking like honorable mention when it comes to MLB free agent starting pitchers, speaking of people that put the ball on the ground, Nick Martinez of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have a really difficult offseason because Drew Rasmussen, Freddie Peralta, Nick Martinez is a club option for Rasmussen for $ 20 million. The expectation is that the Rays will pick that up. But if they do pick it up, that probably takes them out of bringing back Peralta and Martinez. So they're going to have to replace two guys in their starting rotation. But again, it's the race. They always find a way, right? They always seem to find pitchers. They could. And that was the thing that I was going to touch on. Like, if you're not crazy about the free agent starting pitching, because if you go to SpotTrack and you, in the off-season panel, and you just click on the column market value and you go based off that, and I'm leaning on them to help me with my off-season plan project. And you see all the pitchers that are $ 15 million to $ 20 million and Again, as I mentioned in the intro, Jim, it feels like with so many of these guys, it's a trap. I don't know if I could trust them to pitch 50 innings. And if they do give you 125 innings, is that with the five earned run average? Are you just signing a more expensive version of Anthony Kaye? And again, there's this whole shadow looming over the White Sox with Luis Castillo that on the trade front, maybe Drew Rasmussen's available via trade. It's one year, $ 20 million. It's not cheap, and you're dealing with the raise, but maybe that's a possibility. Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins will be entering his last year. Pavel Lopez, depending on where the Twins are, I don't know if they would trade within the division, but Pavel Lopez coming off injury, if he looks strong and he's going to be becoming a free agent next season, is that a possibility on the trade front? It's just on the top end of the starting pitching when it comes to free agency. Tarek Skubal, again, no-brainer for every MLB team. But I do like Freddy Peralta. I like Michael Caine. I like their potential. I'm a Foster Griffin stan. I think I really like what he can bring. Trevor Rodgers, when he's on, he is on. But after those four guys, Jim, it gets dicey. I think Clay Holmes is the most dependable that I have the most trust in. but it's not exactly a free agent class in the starting pitching front that screams that this is a strength, but we're going to do a future episode on the batter front. And with all this being said, I think I like the starting pitching free agent market better than the hitters, Jim. 00:28:33 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's rough. It's rough. Um, and then you think about Rasmussen being traded and then you bring back Reed Detmers and the conversations he was a popular figure, uh, during the trade deadline. 00:28:45 Speaker 1: It's yeah, it's a mess. 00:28:46 Speaker 5: Um, I kind of like the idea of just, you know, they had Trevor Richards so they could sign Trevor Rogers and then trade for Tyler Rogers and Taylor Rogers and just have a, you know, a third of their pitching staff be guys whose names will be completely botched by half the White Sox fan base based on who they hazily remember last one pitching, but. That would be the goal. So that would be why I would move Trevor Rogers number one. But it's contingent on re-signing Trevor Richards and then getting the other two just to make it possible. It's a mess. 00:29:24 Speaker 1: Yeah, I would screw that up all the time. Out of these five, if I told you that the White Sox would sign one of them, who do you like best out of these five? 00:29:36 Speaker 5: I think Michael King. 00:29:38 Speaker 3: I think. 00:29:40 Speaker 5: just the performance i think has been the most solid in terms of especially for the the contract that's expected um like i said peralta is just a hard yeah it's a hard figure Yeah. You could tell me he'd signed for seven years. You could tell me he signed for four. You could tell me he signed for one. And I believe all of them. So it's just, I kind of throw my hands up at that one and say like, man, your guess is as good as mine. So based on what I think, you know, given that King's like a little bit older and I, and you know, theoretically that should limit his market. Like I could see the price coming down to where I feel like King would sign the most reasonable white socks, major contract. But yeah, He also isn't necessarily the kind of pitcher where you think like, oh, I remember Zach Wheeler when he was a free agent. That was a deal the White Sox pursued and seemed like they wanted to sign and they couldn't get the deal done. But that was one where even though the numbers were kind of, there was like a little bit of inconsistency, like it made sense to go for him at that amount. For King, it feels like, Yeah, he's not wheeler grade and you're spending that money on him, but it really is just the cost of pitching and the thinness of the market that's forcing you to do it. So is it a good investment? But I think you'd rather have the White Sox spend the money than say, oh, we need to keep our powder dry and financial flexibility and sign far less convincing candidates. So I think I lean King the most. 00:31:11 Speaker 1: Yeah, I would really like that if the White Sox do sign him. Again, SpotTrack's market value is five years, $ 150 million for Michael Caine. We'll see if he comes close to that. I'm sure that number will actually be inflated because, again, every team wants starting pitching help. And if Skubal doesn't re-sign with the Dodgers, I mean, the Dodgers know how good Michael Caine is. I like the idea. Trevor Rodgers makes a lot of sense for the Dodgers. Every team needs starting pitching help. So the White Sox are going to have to spend some cash to get out of the middle class of pitching, which again, maybe the White Sox find good luck. The good luck continues for them. And they find the guys in the middle class that really step up and have big years in 2027. But I would like them to be a little bit more aggressive and invest the type of money to be able to bring somebody in like a Freddie Peralta or Michael Caine. I still would be happy with a Foster Griffin as well, Jim. I think Trevor Rogers will end up being more expensive and that's a more uncomfortable conversation for the White Sox. But Again, you guys can still continue to participate in the Sox Machine Off-Season Plan Project. Go to SoxMachine.com. Let us know in the comments section as well if you agree with this list, if there are other pitchers that you would add to this list of five free agent targets for the Chicago White Sox to improve on the starting pitching front. But thank you so much for watching and listening to this episode. If you just discovered the Sox Machine podcast, this is a video podcast, so You can watch all of our videos on our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash Sox Machine. Please hit the subscribe button. You can also listen to the show wherever you listen to podcasts such as Spotify and Apple Music. Follow us on social media. We're on all the social media platforms at Sox Machine. And the Sox Machine podcast is a production of SoxMachine.com. You're for all things Chicago White Sox baseball and part of the Foul Territory Network. Alongside Jim Margulis, I'm Josh Nelson. Thanks for watching and listening. 00:33:11 Speaker 3: We'll be right back.