Pełna transkrypcja odcinka NFL WEEK 9 BETS: Jaguars-Ravens, Jets-Chiefs and more

follow us on Insta, TikTok, X. Subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever. Thursday Night Football, Simon from Baltimore, 8.15 p.m. Eastern on Amazon Prime. Jacksonville, nine and a half point favorite at the Baltimore Ravens. Here's a question for you. Do you think Jacksonville with a top rated rush defense and Trevor Lawrence throwing dimes and Liam Cohn in his bag like he's the Ben Johnson of the AFC, Do you think Jacksonville is the best team in the AFC right now? 00:06:38 Speaker 3: I guess right now, but I still wouldn't– I still don't know if I'd take them against my homes come late January, honestly. So it's tough. They really would have to be playing amazing in the playoffs for me to really back them. But, yeah, right now, that's fair. I mean, they're– they're a really complete team. Even, you know, you think of going across the ocean and playing in England, they could have tripped up against the Eagles. They saved that game. They stole it. And, you know, they always, they always play tough when they play over there and they came back. And yeah, that was not a statement win. Like Chad, we're not, we're not hyping up the Jaguars here because they beat up the Colts, but I get exactly what you're saying. They're like, they're just, they're playing like a really good team offensively and defensively. So yeah, they're, They're not number one. They're definitely the top three. 00:07:28 Speaker 1: But even if we don't know who's playing quarterback for the Ravens, do we have to think about playing the Ravens at this big of a number on a short week? Whoever is playing quarterback will ultimately get one or two more reps in as the first team quarterback this week than they did the week before. 00:07:53 Speaker 2: We don't know if it's going to be Snoop Huntley yet. 00:07:58 Speaker 1: But either way, is this a spot where we think the Ravens will have some kind of pride and show up at home and cover a very big number? Without the injuries, just looking at the number, you'd want to play a team that had just gotten blown out, playing a team that had just blown somebody out. 00:08:21 Speaker 2: Because we know there's a couple extra points of value there. 00:08:26 Speaker 3: Sure, but here we have no idea how to quantify the value because they might be on their fourth string quarterback, the Ravens. Like the guy, you know, their third string backup undrafted quarterback, he's not like Jaden Daniels. He couldn't come in there and use his legs to steal first downs, right? He just is not that type of player, so... Now they've brought another guy off the street to be their fourth string quarterback who might actually play in this game. What do they have one practice this week? And if that is even a practice, it's usually a walkthrough because it's, I mean, your bodies can't recover that fast. So awful, awful spot. If you're the Ravens and flip side, Chad just said to the Jaguars, like, yeah, could something weird happen because Thursday

night? Sure. But I think everyone is expecting this game to be a 30 to 14, 30 to 10 blowout. Like it just Ravens defense has been suspect all season. And, they always play worse in the second half. I mean, they're no different than the Philadelphia Eagles. They're just, whatever it is, the Eagles are bad second half, Ravens are terrible second half. And yeah, just looking at this matchup, we saw this line running, right? It opened at like six and a half, seven, ran right up to eight, eight and a half Sunday night. And now it's just been sitting at nine and a half. Some books try to go to 10 and just got bet down. So I'm not going to take a big position on it, but I'll end up probably being on the Jaguars in a couple of different bets. 00:09:43 Speaker 1: You mentioned the defense, Kyle Hamilton, who's, probably considered the best playmaker on the defensive side of the ball for the Ravens. He was asked the other day after the game, you know, there's always a little bit of tension around Lamar and his playing status. Obviously he's out for an extended period of time, possibly the season because of the surgery to his thumb. He was asked about Lamar and the QB situation in general. This is what Kyle Hamilton had to say. 00:10:15 Speaker 3: I mean, it's no disrespect, but like that shit has nothing to do with us. Or a defense. At the end of the day, you need to go out there and play how you want to be remembered. And you got to play with a certain passion, which I thought we did. Obviously, not what we want on the scoreboard, but we got to get some stuff fixed too at the end of the day. 00:10:35 Speaker 1: So I hear that and I can't decide if this guy's so sick of what's been happening with the offense or this guy comes out and they play with a little more pride on Thursday. 00:10:46 Speaker 3: Thoughts? Maybe you're right. I just watched that. I just think it sounds like a guy that just played a game and just got beat up. I don't know. I hear more defeat than anything else. 00:10:58 Speaker 2: That's what I heard. 00:10:59 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's tough. Anyone that's played sports, you know the feeling after losing a game, let alone losing three straight games. It's awful. That's what that looks like to me. It's just like, man. 00:11:14 Speaker 3: They're probably in a little bit of shock. Like they finally got Lamar back. And like we talked about, he got knocked out their first possession. Like it's just the Ravens. You had such high expectations this year. So did we for them. And yeah, it's look at them. They're in nine and a half point home underdogs at home on Thursday night. Like that's just insane to think, but that's, that's what happens. You have a ton of injuries to quarterback position and their defense is just playing terrible right. 00:11:41 Speaker 1: Now. 00:11:42 Speaker 2: Can I tell you about no joke? 00:11:44 Speaker 1: The biggest bet I've made in my entire life from a cash perspective. 00:11:51 Speaker 3: Yeah, please. 00:11:52 Speaker 1: I'm genuinely fired up about it. I'm a little bit nervous about it because if it hits, a lot of people are getting my book, The Number, for free on Polymarket. I built a custom Super Bowl futures market on the Bears website. 00:12:14 Speaker 2: The Bills or the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. 00:12:18 Speaker 1: Anyone who pre-orders the number between now and November 30th, if one of those teams wins it all, anyone who pre-orders the number in this window will get refunded the purchase price of the book. 00:12:36 Speaker 2: It's not a raffle. It's not a drawing. The first 1,000 copies sold in this window get refunded. 00:12:45 Speaker 1: You can buy one copy. You can buy 10 copies. Doesn't matter. Go to chadmillman.com to pre-order and sign up. I worked on this, Simon. Some of our old friends from Action started a company called Crux. It's helping small businesses manage risk on the prediction markets. They worked with me to put this promotion together. It's called Hedge the Number. The window closes November 30th. All the details are at chadmillman.com. I'm taking all the risk. You guys just get the sweat and a book. Pre-order now, chadmillman.com. I'm going all in, Simon. I'm taking the risk. I want to have a good time. 00:13:33 Speaker 2: Why not? 00:13:34 Speaker 3: And I, the counter of this offer, will pay for your future bowl super, future bowl super. Whatever super bowl bet you want to make, I'll pay for your future. If some hacker out there can please take down chadmillman.com. Don't do that. Please hack that website and take it down. 00:13:49 Speaker 2: Simon. 00:13:50 Speaker 3: We cannot let this domain stand. 00:13:52 Speaker 1: If this happens, you have to buy 1,000 copies. 00:13:57 Speaker 3: I can't buy anymore. I got no room left. There's no room left in my house. 00:14:00 Speaker 2: Jesus Christ. 00:14:01 Speaker 3: That is so funny that you own that domain. That's cracking me up. 00:14:05 Speaker 2: Of course I own it. 00:14:06 Speaker 3: What year did you buy it? 97? 00:14:08 Speaker 1: 97. I don't even know when I bought it, but the truth is I think I actually did have to get it. Somebody was squatting on it and I had to get it from somebody. I didn't have to buy it, but I was able to prove that I'm really ChadMillman.com, so I was able to get it. 00:14:24 Speaker 3: That's amazing. 00:14:25 Speaker 1: Anyways, go pre-order. Maybe you'll get a free book at the end of the day. Cincinnati at Atlanta. Atlanta's at three. This was at three and a half when we did the show on Sunday night. We both liked Atlanta with the hook. Falcons, though, are shaping up to be big, big public dogs right now. Obviously a terrible game for Pennix in the monsoon. The Bengals nearly lost a game at home to the Titans. Over the past 20 years, teams that have scored 35 points or more and had at least four turnovers, which is what the Bengals were, Shout out to Bill Barnwell from ESPN for this note in his column yesterday. Teams in that

scenario were two and 212. This game to me was the Bengals in a nutshell. Dysfunctional first quarter, Joe Burrow breaks your spirit, tons of turnovers. Then Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Burrow go into turbo boost. So do we think the Falcons are better than the Titans? Do we like the Falcons at plus three and a half if we can get that number? Do we think everything is just a wash because who can read these teams anymore? 00:15:44 Speaker 3: No, it was an impressive, honest win by Joe Burrow and the Bengals just because he had awful turnovers. But the rest of the game, if you look at that game and go back and watch film, he was incredible. Like his passing was all over the field was incredible just whatever that was that right side i think he threw three picks the same guy i'd have to go back and re-watch it but he just whatever it was that right side the safety kept reading them and kept picking them off or maybe it was their corner but someone whoever was definitely had three picks on them and it was like re-watching i was like oh my god joe you take out those plays he dominates this game and i got i get why people are hating on him right now because it's like yeah he beat up the tennessee titans sure they're bad all that noise but Still pretty impressive in a game where they didn't have it. Like Chad just said, they had four turnovers. Titans on the flip side, that was like insane how good they were offensively. I mean, they really found some of Pollard right now. Cam Ward's still up and down. You have no idea what you're getting from play to play. But that run game for Tennessee is legit. But back to this game with the Falcons... We all expected them to bounce back at 3.5, but now it's becoming a Bengals line here. If this gets to minus 3, minus 2.5, I can easily be swayed to taking this Bengals side, especially in an international game. If they get back to 3.5, I wake up Sunday morning, that's where I'll put my money into. But if it's anything 3, minus 3, or minus 2.5, that's got to be Bengals. Bengals are just overall a more complete team, and they're coming off a game where Their offense played bad and their defense played bad. I expect them to bounce back. Or the Falcons, I don't really know if they played bad or more so they played in a tsunami. It's like you really blame Pennix or that team. There's not much to take away from it. And the Falcons, as good as they are this year, you know, like they beat the 49ers and all these other things. And those games, think of all the things that had to break the Falcons away for them to beat those type of teams. Where the Bengals, you've seen it this season, they play sloppy in a lot of these first halves and then just They flip a switch. That offense, once it gets rolling, like Chad said, Chase, T. Higgins, Joe Burrow, the machine, it just gobbles up these defenses. That's insane. They just score five straight times. It's not just field goals. They're scoring touchdowns every time. It's crazy.

00:17:52 Speaker 2: With ease. 00:17:53 Speaker 1: It's like they just decide, okay, we're done screwing around now. If you're a Bengals fan, if you're a Bengals better, you'd kind of like them to take the whole game seriously. Like, I don't know why Joe Burrow, Zach Taylor, why this team consistently has these moments where. 00:18:12 Speaker 2: It feels like they go a little bit brain dead. 00:18:15 Speaker 1: And they're not acknowledging the fact they're playing in a football game. They're lackadaisical. They're not taking things seriously. Obviously, I know that's not true, but that's how it comes across. It's infuriating if you're a Bengals fan. And it's one of the reasons why we consistently avoid betting on the Bengals. 00:18:35 Speaker 3: But their team right now in a week feels AFC. We would not be shocked if they make a Super Bowl run. They have all the pieces. That defense, when it does play well, they're really good. That offense, like Chad just said, and I'm saying it's top two, top three right now in the NFL. When they put it together, you cannot stop. Because we've seen now that Joe has protection. There is no excuse. You have a good offensive line. and two receivers that at any day they can show up and be a top-five receiver between Chase and T. Higgins. T. Higgins, I know we don't think about him that way, but he is so talented. When he's healthy, he's just such a force and a weapon on the outside for that team. I think they're their first two receivers, right? It was some crazy stat from our favorite guest, Rich. It was like– I'd have to go back and look it up. It was basically they were the first two receivers that both finished number one, number two in air yardage. In the same week. Like that's how insane that offensive output was for the Bengals. That's what we're trying to break down here. 00:19:34 Speaker 1: New York Giants at the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are three and a half point home underdogs. Things continue to unravel there. Giants coming off a bye. Lots of conversations about, you know, will the Giants be in the market for Jonathan Taylor? 00:19:50 Speaker 2: Or another running back? 00:19:53 Speaker 1: Kudos to John Harbaugh. Like, we were anti-Harbaugh before the season began, not buying into it. But seeing the difference in how the Ravens are falling apart, how the Giants are battling against despite all these quarterback issues. Clearly, we misread that impact on the Giants and their franchise. You know, the Eagles, Nick Sirianni came out and said this week they are not changing their offensive coordinator. 00:20:26 Speaker 2: They are not changing their quarterback. 00:20:29 Speaker 1: Conversations around Saquon being traded. He said that he is not expecting to be traded, that he wants to be there. Could just be there might not be a market for Saquon. But at some point, do the Eagles have to become a team you start considering because the line just becomes so out of whack and over-adjusted? 00:20:56 Speaker 3: Yeah, but at the same time, how can you want to back this Eagles team? They look like they've totally given up. I mean, it's two weeks in a row, but The books are taking a stand here. It's going to be all Giants money. Like Chet has said, they're coming off a bye week. They're leading this division. They're the only team in this division that looks like they can play a complete game week to week. They're not just beating up bad teams. They've played pretty tough competition. They've played really well in those games. Evan Abrams had a bunch of amazing tweets about the Eagles and just how bad they've been. I've been banging the drum every week. Fade the Eagles in the second half. They're now 0-8 against the spread in the second half this year, which is insane. It's just free money fading them every week. And so now if they just bad coaching, like they're bad adjustments. The only jail hurts was playing. The offense was terrible. The second half. Now the defense is just as bad as the Eagles offense, the second half. And they've also lost eight straight Eagles against the NFC, um, against the spread. That's the longest streak in our franchise's history since the 1970s. So it's just all bad right now for Philadelphia. And, uh, this line is begging us to take the Eagles. So I'm having a hard time with it. Cause it's like, this is a very fishy line, but just looking on the field, these are two teams going in total different directions. So maybe the giants, their view is they sleepwalk in this game after a bi-week. I'm not sure, but I'm going to keep doing the same thing I do every week. I'll play Eagles first half and then put a large amount of money on the giants in the second half. It's just, I expect the giants to pull away in the second half. Even if they're down by a touchdown, I expect the Eagles to get rolled in the second half. And that's what's been happening every week. It's just terrible coaching. 00:22:31 Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Denver Broncos visiting the Carolina Panthers. 00:22:35 Speaker 2: Do you have something you want to say here? 00:22:36 Speaker 3: Wow, what a setup. Incredible setup. Thank you, Chad. Yeah, Simon says, give me the Panthers plus two and a half. 00:22:43 Speaker 1: Simon says, trade of the week presented by Polymarket. Carolina plus two and a half, currently trading at 46%. 00:22:53 Speaker 3: Yeah, give me the Panthers plus two and a half. It's a good number. It really is. It's a line that I know people don't view that because they think Denver's so much better. But if you look at a lot of the underlying numbers right now at Denver, there's still a lot wrong with this team. And the Bo Nix magic has saved them in these fourth quarters. And this is another time where I think the general public's been in this, think they have a great spot or a great prediction here of this line moving the way it is. And it's like, I don't know. If you really think the Panthers are that bad, everything would be three

and a half. So that's why I wish we'd still had the three and a half, but the two and a half I'm fine taking just because I think this is closer to a pick'em and you're getting great value right now on this Panthers side. So I look at a huge bounce back, obviously, in Bryce Young on this offense, but I think the fact that they've made changes in the defense, especially the defensive coaching staff, maybe a wake-up call for this Panthers defense as well. 00:23:48 Speaker 1: Look, the Broncos have been pulling rabbits out of their hat consistently. Forget about the Bo Nix situation. They're in first place, frankly, with a defense that has just not been as dominant as expected, in addition to a QB who is ranked near the bottom in just about every advanced metric. But let's look at the defense for a second. 12th in EPA per play, 14th in sack percentage, 28th in yards after the catch over expectation, Allowed, meaning guys are catching the ball and then they are running to daylight. The Panthers Achilles heel against the Packers, which was an ugly, ugly night, especially if you were back in the. 00:24:39 Speaker 2: Panthers plus three and a half. 00:24:41 Speaker 1: Six sacks, fewer than 2.3 seconds to throw for Bryce Young. If he can get a little bit of time and he can step up in the pocket for those deeper crossing routes, for those deep balls that this offense has, loves, that defines his explosiveness. That's what makes us want to bet them. The challenge I have, the only where I have, I want you to address this. The Panthers offensive line had a lot of problems against the Packers because they were injured. We don't know yet what the status of that offensive line and some of the injuries is going to be, but I'm with you 100%. I'm dying to bet the Panthers in this game. do we care about the offensive line or is it just take the number? 00:25:29 Speaker 2: It's the right side. It doesn't matter. 00:25:33 Speaker 3: Which is totally fair. Like, like I, like you're right. I'm looking at the numbers right now. There's, there is obviously a lot of questions about this offensive line, which is, I didn't realize how much they just dropped off these last couple of weeks. So they've obviously gotten much worse along here, but I just look at it also the situation where, Denver has had a crazy run where they lost that 49ers team in a game where they used to kind of win. We always talk about that muff punt. 00:25:56 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:25:57 Speaker 3: Also, that flipped that game against the 49ers. They went and beat the Chargers after that. Went and beat Seattle at home. Went to Arizona, beat Arizona, and then beat the Chiefs at home. Like, they're all in this crazy run right now. I'm expecting for a letdown. Like that's just, it's just the way the NFL is. And we've all agreed. Like, this is not a, what we view as one of the best teams in football right now. So that's another thing where it feels like they're playing a little, like Chad said, a little bit of

pulling the rabbit out of the hat and a little bit of house money here. So, uh, that's just my view is the public's going to come in. So having this line, the fact that it's already going the other way, it's kind of telling where the pro money is going right now. And I'm just happy they're on my side. As soon as I saw this number, I was like, Oh my God, it's going to be an amazing Panther spot. And, uh, Their line room reflects that. It's come down now, Polymarket, from three and a half to two and a half. I think it holds here for a little while, but a lot of these other shops still at plus three. I think they all come down to plus two and a half after we get back on Thursday. 00:26:51 Speaker 2: Totally agree. 00:26:52 Speaker 1: I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, They'd lock the trade or take a huge fee, but Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all, and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. Download the Polymarket app today and use SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. All right, Detroit and Miami. Miami is a seven point underdog at home. We've had a really nice run with the Dolphins. On Sunday night, this line dropped. From eight and a half down to seven, we were too busy chit-chatting on our show to actually bet on the game because it was moving while we were talking. Lots of money on Detroit, but a lot more tickets, which means Miami is getting some wise guy attention. The Lions, they survived that game against the Vikings, but Jack Campbell had that very scary neck injury. We don't know what his status will be. Brian Branch left the game with a concussion. He's in the protocol. We don't know what his status. DJ Reed, another starting defensive back, left the game with a hip injury. We don't know his status. Cade Mays, the center, left the game with an ankle injury. No word yet on who's playing, who's going to sit. Something to keep in mind if you're trying to get ahead of this. 00:28:50 Speaker 2: I think it's seven. I think we still play the Dolphins. 00:28:56 Speaker 3: Yeah. Still play the dolphins. We can be patient, right? It's what is the rush for us here? There is no rush. It just same thing happened last week. I think like we're patient. We'll get the bump back up. We're just so much money's going to come on the lines. Like people

are just, they're, they're loving this team. They're feeling good about this team. And it's because they're fun and exciting, right? They're high powered offense. And this is the exact, exact type of game where the dolphins easily could get blown out. Right. And that's going to be the general public view because we've seen it, right? The, Every time the Dolphins score, it's usually grinding it out, right? It's not like we got very lucky with a deep shot touchdown last week by Miami. That's just not their playing style. They usually grind out these yards where the lines, I know they grinded out last week, but you think about this offense, it's really about spreading. it out so um i think the general public is going to come in very heavy on the lines and we talked sunday night we already missed the best number i feel like we can be patient like even though a couple different shops are already shown six and a half including polymarket and they're taking absurd amount of money i mean you can look at polymark right now on the charts they're taking so much money on the lines so If they hold at six and a half, great. Me and Chad will go down with that ship. We avoided it last week with the Chargers. I know you were trying to get into the Chargers, and I always got there with you because it's not even a group, a guy I know who's so much better at betting the NFL than I ever will be. This guy is just, his life is simply football. I have other hobbies and things I like to do. He does not. he is in the darkest of holes because he has just been trapped by this Chargers team for about three weeks now, where he's just one of those people that keep believing they're totally undervalued. And he got burned by it. And I remember just like thinking this week, am I going to get burned by this Miami team, which has been good to me, but that might be my only issue is I'm too close to it. And this feels so obvious. Like, how do you not take a Dolphins team here that keeps getting us back doors where I think you said it's true on Sunday's show about Branch being back and the difference he's made for Detroit. It's subtle. It's a small difference. But that defense was so bad, it's very noticeable. His presence in that secondary, taking away deep shots and stepping up and stopping the run as well, it's been noticeable. So maybe I'm too low on this Lions team. So this is going to be a line I'm going to fight with this week because it's 6.5 and it's just going to be super efficient to me. It's going to take every ounce of strength in my body to stay away from it where I really want to be on Miami. 00:31:19 Speaker 2: Well, let's wait. 00:31:21 Speaker 1: We're in no rush. Let's see if we can get a little bit of a hook at seven and a half. The New York Jets, Simon, are visiting the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are nine and a half point favorites. And I hate saying this. The New York Jets are going to be Chad's choice. I'm not going to be dissuaded by what happened last week. This one has been bouncing between nine and a half and 10. Every time it gets to 10, it seems some group grabs the number and it bounces back down to nine and a half. There are plenty of systems we can talk about to back play in the jets, a bad team on a losing streak, a bad team against a good team, plenty of history to back fading. Mahomes is a favorite getting the majority of the bets. It, I don't know if you know this, Simon, but I'm contributing, in addition to the number, which comes out in January, as an author, I'm also contributing to the athletic. And I think you're aware that I wrote a story about how Patrick Mahomes is the 101st ranked quarterback out of 101 since 2018, when he is a favorite getting the majority of the bets. That was the situation last week. It's the situation this week. Here's the difference for me. Geno Smith has been a solid top 15 quarterback in the NFL this year across every metric except one. He's getting sacked a ton, getting pressured a ton, third most sacks, seventh most pressures. When he's not, one of the best quarterbacks, 10 touchdowns, one pick, fourth highest QB rating. Kansas City Chiefs cannot pressure the quarterback. They've got issues in their defensive backfield. Brees Hall may be back. Why would I not take the bet on the Jets potentially backdooring against a team that can't pressure and is struggling in the defensive backfield? 00:33:41 Speaker 3: Totally fair, but why is this number so high? They didn't win last week, like you said, that Mahomes– Yeah, you can blame the refs, and that was a terrible call. That's part of the reason why Mahomes didn't win that game outright. But this is priced as if they won that game. 00:33:56 Speaker 2: I know. 00:33:57 Speaker 3: I was shocked to see this number when it opened. I really thought this would be 7.5, 7. But, yeah, you're right. You're getting two points, three points on Mahomes' tax, whatever you want to call it. It's there in this number. It's a bizarre number, so. I don't have a read on it yet. I'll be a good friend. I'll support you here on the jets. I will go to Chad Millman.com and order as many books as I can, but I can't, I can't give out the jets right now on my side, just because I don't have a full read on this. I'm just a little suspicious of this line. I don't, I don't get what the books are doing here. Like they were going to get jets money, especially from pros. Like, why would we not take this number this big, but it's fishy. It is very fishy here. Cause like Chad said, the genius must've been good. And, You can say some of that pressure is on himself because he is so good at taking those deep shots, but he has to hold on to the ball five or six seconds to let those deep shots develop. That's why he takes those stupid sacks. That really is a lot on Geno, but you nailed it. I thought coming into this year, I knew the D-line had taken a little bit of a step back. Chiefs defense is not what it used to be up front, but this year

you're right. That game last week, I think there was some crazy stat where they basically got less than 10% of pressure or something like that on Bo Nix. And now the Denver doesn't have a good offensive line, but still, I mean, that's in a divisional game. That's really, really shocking to see that low. So I'm with you. Like, I want to be on the jets here. So I'll have a stronger opinion come Thursday. We were sitting here right now. I'm like, why is, why are we getting these free points? Why is this not seven, seven and a half? So I think your reads right though. I think this, this does come back down. I don't know if it ever gets back to 10. 00:35:34 Speaker 1: It's, it's not the only big favorite, big dog. on the board this week. I will say in the discord, there's a guy named Carson who he's on top of the injuries before anything I see on social media. And he also threw in some stats into the discord today. And one of the stats was teams that I want to make sure I get it right. 00:36:05 Speaker 2: Teams that were the total is over. 00:36:07 Speaker 1: 45 and the line is between seven and nine and a half this season. 00:36:14 Speaker 2: The dogs have. 00:36:15 Speaker 1: Won outright 50% of the time this season. There's two games that applies to one of them is the jets. The other one we'll get to in a little bit. Um, but I'm glad to hear, I'm glad to hear you're not against it. Cause I was afraid like there'd be so much turnoff on the jets that it'd be hard to invest that way, but I'm closing my eyes and, Going with what I see, which you can do when you close your eyes. Cleveland at New Orleans. New Orleans minus two and a half. You mentioned this one on Sunday night, and I'm trying to figure out why. Why it seems to be the side, why New Orleans seems to be the side for people. Do we think the market has overcorrected on Cleveland? Normally, you'd want to bet the good team that just got blown out. Cleveland is the good team in this scenario. And the Steelers game, like you look back at it, it was just a disaster. 00:37:16 Speaker 2: From the get-go. 00:37:17 Speaker 1: Like the first three series, they had two fumbles and a punt and they were down 10-0. Deshaun got sacked six times, I think, in that game. 00:37:28 Speaker 2: Eight times in that game. Like it was just a bad game. 00:37:32 Speaker 1: New Orleans is not the same team as the Steelers. Why would the Saints be the side in this game? What are people saying? 00:37:44 Speaker 3: Fair. Saints are bad. I totally get where you're coming from. That's really what you're kind of saying. Yeah. Saints are bad, which is very true. They are a bad team. But I don't know if we can say the Browns are that much better. I know they feel like they are because they have a different winning record. But we've seen it this year. It's been a lot of just Deshaun Watson saving the day. Like a lot of these games, they flipped teams. in those finals two, three minutes. So that's really where you're banking on here once again with the Browns. It feels like it's going to be a very competitive, low-scoring game. You talk about that game with the Browns, how unlucky it was. That was a really hard-fought divisional game on the road. Now they're on the road again against a Saints team who come off a bye week. That's a big deal. We're getting to that point of the season. We're in November here. That rest disparity between your body it's a big deal. So I would agree that the Browns are a better team, but they're in a bad situation, a bad spot. And the Saints team are in a good one and they're desperate for, I mean, this is not, I'm not saying it's not their season, but it feels close to it. Like they lose this game. What are they now? Two and six. I mean, two and five, like it would be a really hard hole to dig out of where everyone else in your division is winning games. Like the Panthers, Bucks, Atlanta, as bad as they all started, they're all winning games where the Saints just have not been. So, um, Yeah, that's definitely the professional side. Every pro I talk to, for the most part, has been the Saints. I know some groups out there are taking positions on the Browns when it touches three. It is not just all heavily one-sided. I don't know if the general public will back the Saints. I think they'll come back in on the Browns for the simple reason that, like Chad said, they look like the better team this season, and you're getting a plus number, especially on the money line. so it's just it's gonna be that easy for them where it's just the saints i don't know how much of the public opinion is gonna really like this team so i'm interested where this line goes like to me if it does drop down to one and a half i do see a lot of resistance from the browns great maybe i can just avoid this game but we sit here right now it's like my god do i have to play the saints here it feels like it's going that direction at this. 00:39:45 Speaker 2: Point What am I talking about? 00:39:48 Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Rams, by the way, the Saints, the split is 64% of the tickets currently on the Cleveland Browns. So you're not wrong. Public is back in the Browns here. Los Angeles Rams at the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are five and a half point home underdogs. I know the Rams are the side here and this line is moving to six. But Jaden Daniels to me is a very weird quarterback. to handicap against. He's so slippery. He gets so little time to throw. Defenses have to do nutty things to protect against him, wreaking havoc and keeping games close. And I think it's almost like a team like the Rams, whose ability to generate pressure is amongst the best in the league. Top four in pressure rate, top four in sack rate. They're excellent generating pressure. Sometimes I feel like that's a disadvantage because of the way Jaden Daniels can run and evade pressure and use his legs to create big plays and keep games close, especially late when they're down. I want to be in the

Rams, but I'm anxious to bet against Jaden Daniels. 00:41:05 Speaker 3: Yeah, my fear here is we might happen what happened a lot of people last week with the Cowboys. The Cowboys beat up the Eagles. and people thought the Cowboys were correcting a lot of stuff, and that's why they took them against Arizona. We both agree there was no logical reason why the Cowboys were that bad of a defense. Well, the general public was on the Cowboys. They were heavily bet into. Is that another thing with the Eagles where the commanders, we have the same feeling where it's like, I agree. Jayden Daniels looks great when he's playing, especially against bad teams. 00:41:34 Speaker 2: Interesting. 00:41:35 Speaker 3: The Rams have turned it around here. This line jumped out right away to me where I didn't really understand it, where it's like, Another line where I thought they should have just opened at 6.5, 6. And Chad's right. It opened at 5.5 and now it's training towards 6. So that to me feels right. Where the Rams, they're legit a playoff team. We've seen it now. They've survived the worst of it. They're only going to keep getting better. We know that with Sean McVay teams. It's always tough to start the year and they get better as the season goes along. You've seen it play out so far this year where they look like they're getting better week to week. It's still unpolished and they have a lot of guys coming back from injuries, obviously, but this is another matchup where, yeah, like if we want to back Washington, we can do it, but we're going to be kicking ourselves where Dan Quinn makes some dumb mistake and Dan Daniels is just tossing the ball off his hip to bad picks. It just, I can see it going a certain way with this one. So another game I'm having a tough time with where I wanted to be on Washington and I'm finding myself to be more into this Rams and minus five and a half at this point. So, I'll grab it now, but it's another game where the week goes along, I can find myself buying out of, but to say it right now, I'm definitely leaning heavily towards this Rams side. 00:42:42 Speaker 1: Dallas at Indy. Indy is a six-point underdog at home. I'm going to ask this a couple times over the next couple games. Is this where we bite? Are we taking the bait on the Indianapolis Colts? Is this the bottom of the barrel against the Dallas Cowboys? 00:43:03 Speaker 3: So there's two teams last week that were double-digit dogs and huge sellers, and I had to make a choice which one I was going to bet heavy into. Unfortunately, I did not choose Tennessee Titans, which I should have. I chose the Colts last week, and they got blown out by whatever it was, 30 points. They were dead from the get-go type of game. I can't lie to you. It's hard to try to jump back into it, but yeah, Colts are definitely the right side once again, right? We can see Jonathan Taylor running for 150 against his Cowboys team. There's just... It's the type of game, though, like I don't want to be burned last week where if we just wait, this Colts number could keep going up just because maybe they do trade downs. Like we don't know who they're going to get rid of here at this point, and this number could move. Tons of rumors about, you know, different teams trying to get Jonathan Taylor off of them. 00:43:49 Speaker 1: Yep. 00:43:50 Speaker 3: You know, that's all fun and good, but it's like, is someone really going to give a first-round pick for him? Like I just– we'll see. 00:43:57 Speaker 1: I don't think it'll be first round. I think it'll be– it'll have to be. second, third, fourth, like a combination of mid-round, mid to late rounds. I think that everyone, everything I keep saying is, I keep seeing is they want a deal similar to Christian McCaffrey to the Niners. It wasn't first round picks. It was second round picks, third round picks, fourth round picks, a combination of that. 00:44:19 Speaker 2: I think that's what they're holding out on. 00:44:22 Speaker 3: Maybe, but like the teams people are throwing out there, like it just, it doesn't make sense that the team would give up that much for this type of asset where yeah, I get it. Teams are going to be desperate out there, but it's like, you're really going to give up that much for Jonathan Taylor on a team that is desperate. Like I feel like they're the ones that can wait out this, this Colts team. And you have a Colts owner that I think might be very attached to Jonathan Taylor. That's why I think the asking price might be too high. So I think he plays, but like I said, we can be patient on this number. I, I would be shocked if it goes to five and a half, maybe pros will come in heavy on it. It's just, I assume, once again, everyone's going back to the well. They're going to have every teaser, all their parlays are going to be tied to this Cowboys team. I expect them to bounce back because Dak, you can knock him as much as you want. He does beat up on bad defenses. This year, as much disappointment as you want to have because he basically did a disappearing act in that second half against that Arizona team in that overtime. You look at the match appearance, it's the exact type of game where Dak just goes crazy. Indoors, horrible defense, team that might have given up on the season. Yeah, it's just a hard game to read on. It really is. It's not much different from the Eagles team. They're begging us to take the Eagles. They're begging us here to take the Colts. We all have a pit in our stomachs to deal with because these are two teams that look like they've totally given up on the season. It really is hard. 00:45:45 Speaker 1: Are they begging us to take the Chargers at plus four and a half, hosting the Houston Chargers? Texans, you mentioned you got this guy who's in a deep, deep hole back in the Chargers. I was really proud of us last week when the number was, I think the number was at seven and a half. 00:46:04 Speaker 2: We had thought about the Chargers. 00:46:07 Speaker 1:

I never wanted to take the Chargers once the line got under seven. I was really proud of us that we did not take the Chargers, that we avoided the Chargers. They never came up on Sunday. It seemed like if you're going to take the Chargers, you missed the best of the number. This is not a team where you want to chase any steam at all. At four and a half, I mean, it couldn't be worse for this team. I don't think they've scored a touchdown in, what is it, 18 quarters or something like that. It's been almost a month since they scored a touchdown. 00:46:45 Speaker 2: But is it time? 00:46:49 Speaker 3: It sucks. I'm just leaving so much money on the table where like my model every week has it being off where I think I'm super low on this Chargers team. And the books come out like last week I had him at minus. Yeah, I had it. I had the line of minus eight for the Rams. And like we said, it went from seven and a half to six and a half. It was like, OK, I'm missing something here. These guys are smarter than me. I'm open and honest about our taking this Chargers team. They have a good read on it and they're getting burned. This Chargers team is not covered yet this year. And the books, once again, are back to their old ways where they're going to get hammered on the Texans. It's going to be all the Texans money. They're taking a huge stay on the Chargers. What is this number? Plus four and a half on the Chargers. They're terrible. Chad, you said they can't score touchdowns. Now they're fighting against a team that desperately needs to bounce back and win. And their defense is much as you want to knock them and say how bad they've been this year, which they have, you know, That Tennessee game feels like a lifetime ago. That game where they gave up three points, I think it was, against Tennessee. You have 27 to J.J. McCarthy and the Giants, and they had a bye week. I can't imagine them laying another egg here against this Chargers team. I know they're desperate, but they're terrible. Watching that game against the Rams, Justin Herbert, you would not know that's Justin Herbert. If this is your first year watching him, And I try to explain to you how good this guy used to be and was. It doesn't sound real. And I know I hate on him because I should. Like, he's never won a playoff game. But this does not look like the same quarterback that has these deep throws, that's smart with the ball, that runs at the right time, takes the dump off at the right time. Like, he would do all the right things. Now he's doing all the wrong things. Just stupid turnovers. And he just looks so bad. So I don't know what to do. He doesn't trust anything. I don't know what to do with this number. 00:48:37 Speaker 1: He doesn't trust his receivers getting separation. He doesn't trust what he's seeing down the field. He doesn't trust that he's going to get time. I think he's totally and completely and rightfully a little bit spooked by the lack of support and protection he's gotten from this offensive line going on several years now. And it's all on his shoulders, but he has no one he can throw the ball to. 00:49:02 Speaker 2: Nobody. 00:49:02 Speaker 1: He has nobody he can hand the ball off to. He has nobody protecting him. What is this. 00:49:09 Speaker 3: Line, Chad? What is this line? 00:49:11 Speaker 2: That's what I'm asking. 00:49:13 Speaker 3: That's what we're all asking. That's what I mean. It's a bizarre world. So, yeah, I would say if a normal year, I would be happy. the Chargers. They're doer than do. And this is the definition of a trap line. But they're so poorly coached and they've changed nothing. No one's been fired. Nothing has happened. So why would anything change at this point? So, yeah, it's another game where I hope I can get talked into it, possibly be on Houston. But right now I'm just– I'm trying to avoid it because everything is just glaringly alarm. It's like Houston wins this game by 20. The defense destroys this Chargers team. Like Chad just said, they don't have an offensive line, the Chargers. Now they're playing one of the best defensive lines in all of football. As bad as the secondary has been for the Chargers, that D-line has not been bad for the Texans. So I don't know what to do with it, brother. I really don't. 00:50:01 Speaker 1: Well, the good news is we can focus our attention on the Las Vegas Raiders visiting the San Francisco 49ers. This one was at nine and a half. It actually moved up to 10 this morning. But I don't know why the Raiders aren't getting hammered in this game. Feels like I'd want to be on the double digit dog that is competitive in every single game, unless we're just deciding, the Niners are the best team in the NFC. They are going to be dominant and that there is no point in trying to catch this rolling train. 00:50:51 Speaker 3: Yeah, another game where I just be patient. We'll find out in your report on this Niners team, see who's playing, see if McGovern's is playing, get all the good news. And you can grab the 10 now, but it's another game where I don't know how much movement there's going to be. I feel like it's going to keep bouncing between 10 and nine and a half all week. So I, I'm like Chad, I feel like we both want to be on the Raiders and, you know, we look at this 49ers team. Yeah, they're dominant. They could easily blow out this Raiders team, but you know, at this, at this level of points and the fact that we don't know the health of this Raiders or this 49ers team, it's another number. It's like, why is this not seven and a half? It just feels like it should be much lower. And Kirk Cousins is, you know, last week in that game against the Jets, he just keeps reminding you, he just will always find a way to backdoor you and put up touchdowns. He really does. Like it just, the Jets would drive the field score and he would just kept finding a way to drive back down the field and score. So that's what Kirk's been doing all year. And I know a lot of

guys I've talked to, especially professional bettors are a little weary about this number because they still think there's a possibility Kirk could be moved to, I know it sounds crazy, but the Vikings or the Ravens, like some team might step in and grab them right now. So, That's another reason just to be patient a little bit here on this Raiders side. 00:51:59 Speaker 2: All right. 00:52:01 Speaker 1: This next game, Arizona at Seattle. Seattle's a 10.5-point favorite. I want to run through my little spiel here, but I think I'm going to surprise you. Gardner Minshew is going to be starting for the Cardinals. And what we confirmed last night with Sam Darnold is that he's not very good against pressure. And that's not an indictment. I'm not trying to be glib. I'm not trying to dredge up old ghosts like, He is a very good quarterback who can execute, who clearly knows how to operate an offense and has a very talented arm. But we saw two weeks ago against the Chiefs, no pressure, he dominates. Last night, tons of pressure, he struggles. We've seen that consistently throughout his career, maybe more extremes than anybody else. The Cardinals cannot get any pressure. Bottom five in the league in pressures, bottom five in the league in pressure rate. What I'm saying is with Gardner Minshew, I don't think it's an autoplay on a huge division dog in the Cardinals that we might normally say, oh yeah, we got to take it. 00:53:10 Speaker 2: In fact, the Cardinals right now are the public side. I like the Seahawks here. 00:53:15 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the autoplay, the Seattle Seahawks. We might crash and burn here, no doubt, but Immediately, as soon as this line opened, I was like, whatever the line is going to be, I'm going to be on Seattle. As long as it's under 14, I'm going to be on Seattle. And luckily for me, they opened at 10. But most people listening to this, it's probably already going to be up to 11, 11 and a half by the time you get this. It doesn't really matter. That's not really a key number, especially 10 and a half. It's what you get above 10, that is what it is, as long as you're below 13. I looked at this number immediately. It was like, okay, what was the line the first time they played? Because I think it was Drew Locke, obviously, right? It was plus four. In what world, the same guy was not worth six and a half points. So I think that's a really telling sign about how they underrated the Seattle team the first time they played and overrated that Cardinals team where the Cardinals were coming off that win in week one. I've seen people really drinking, believing the hype. And now that same quarterback's not even playing for the Cardinals. They're on due. Number two in Minshew. And you are asking Leighton to strike twice. I mean, can you imagine the vibes from Minshew this week, feeling himself waking up in his trailer park, getting out of his bed? 00:54:20 Speaker 1: Minshew coming off the bench, lighting up a Cowboys defense is so different than Minshew needing to prep as if he's the starter going against a Seattle defense. 00:54:31 Speaker 3: He just got rolled in prime time. Embarrassed. That's the thing. That was worst case scenario for the Arizona Cardinals. So yeah, we could get burned here. It's a big number. We're back at Sam Darnold who just Has not looked right, right? He had that– he did look great against the Chiefs. That was crazy. And we both joked, though, like that's not going to keep– you can't have a 3-10, expect Sam Darnold to keep throwing you out of 3-10s. They have to find a run game in Seattle. So this is really us just banking heavily on their head coach and the defense with Seattle here. Like that really is what we're hanging our hat on. So, yeah, I wouldn't be shocked come Sunday if people, me and Chad, have the Seattle team because right now they're probably my favorite favorite. 00:55:12 Speaker 1: I would not be shocked at all. This was my top three for Chad's choice. But I actually thought you'd laugh at me if I said the Seahawks. 00:55:21 Speaker 2: So I'm glad that we're aligned on this. 00:55:26 Speaker 1: Green Bay at New England. New England is a two and a half point favorite. Packers are another very public side here. But the line is moving in the direction of New England. It's priced to move from two and a half to three. Great QB matchup. Great coaching matchup. You mentioned New England two and a half on Sunday night. I'm inclined to agree with you at that number. 00:55:51 Speaker 3: Yeah, it feels like another pro spot. The pros will be all over the Patriots and the general public. I think we'll see how this line goes. Who knows? But I just view them coming in heavy on Green Bay. Like they're really going to be buying in Green Bay. Just the way Green Bay has played down the stretcher, right? That big blowout win against Carolina. A game they lost to Detroit they easily could have won. So we're talking to them, they probably should have won five or six games in a row here. Like Green Bay has really flipped it around. So I totally get where they're coming from. But this is the exact type of game I feel like New England plays so well and Vrabel does where people are doubting them and having doubts. And Miami, I know they won that game. I don't know if Vrabel is going to treat it that way this week in practice. Like that felt like a game where, what was it, 13-3 or 10-3 at halftime or something really crazy like that. And they scored 21 straight. Drake may have found a way, but they easily could have blown that game against Miami. They played sloppy in a lot of ways. They should be getting healthier as well this week, this Patriots side. It was another line where I wanted to be patient because I had some fear Parsons was going to be back. Seems like it's going to be another week for Parsons to miss, which is really interesting. He was supposed to be back for Dallas, and now here we are. They already played Carolina. Now he's going to miss

this game as well. So Maybe there's a lot more going on with Parsons that we're going to let a note about. And I know they're backing Josh Jacobs this week. We'll see how long that holds on to that because right now he's still on the team, still with the organization. If you haven't heard, more people have come out, more victims of him apparently putting his hands on more women and hitting them. And we don't know the whole details allegedly of it, but it's like how long can Green Bay hold this back? We've seen it. He's been a difference maker. I know it doesn't look like it on paper. Like his average rush charge isn't much. pass blocking out of the back foot receiving the ball like he is just so good for this team so that's another piece for he misses this game that's even more of a big deal for me to like the Patriots so yeah Chad's not wrong I'm looking right now the market is going up to three on the Packers so some pro money is coming in right now on the Patriots and we'll see what happens I just I would be shocked to see if it goes and stays a three or goes up to three and a half and if it does that'd be great for us as Patriots Packers but I just think the general public is going to come in so heavy on this Packers team especially at plus three. 00:58:07 Speaker 1: Can we talk about the Chicago Bears hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night. 00:58:13 Speaker 2: Football in Chicago? 00:58:15 Speaker 1: This is an old school NFC Central matchup. Simon, you're too young to remember the NFC Central. When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in the same division as the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers. Like we said, last night for the Bears was truly a special night, a family affair. 00:58:46 Speaker 2: So dominant. 00:58:47 Speaker 1: Quarterback play was so good. Their confidence was inspirational. They were a professional football team. We both cashed our three and a half tickets. This is when we get off the bed and bag wagon for the Bears, right? Like the Seahawks, are very limited offensively. 00:59:07 Speaker 2: We saw that. The Bucs. 00:59:11 Speaker 1: We know Baker will at some point throw the ball downfield, but they are not devoid of talent in the backfield. And I know Jeffrey Simmons is with the Bears now. But this line is just so big because of what the Bears did last night. 00:59:30 Speaker 2: It's popped up. 00:59:32 Speaker 1: I think that we are getting some value on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. 00:59:39 Speaker 3: Maybe. But the only reason I was so heavy on the Bears, especially liking them so much in primetime, is this whole Ben Johnson stuff with primetime is crazy. I know you've seen these stats. 00:59:50 Speaker 2: That's true. 00:59:51 Speaker 1: 8-1. 00:59:51 Speaker 3: 8-1 against the spread. 00:59:52 Speaker 2: Against the spread. 00:59:53 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:59:54 Speaker 3: If you go back to him as an OC with the Lions, he's 19-4. The man gets up. 01:00:01 Speaker 2: He is such a psychopath. He does. 01:00:04 Speaker 1: They had that play last night where they had DeAndre Swift lined up at quarterback, snap it to DeAndre Swift, have Caleb Williams coming in motion as if he's going to run a reverse. He gets the lateral, and then he's got all the time in the world to find guys downfield. 01:00:23 Speaker 2: He just– He schemes up so well. He's so good. 01:00:27 Speaker 3: Even better, he's such a psycho. You guys were up by 14. You get the ball back. Or maybe it was even you guys were up by even more. And he kept swifting. He kept swifting at the very end of the game to run the clock out. And I needed– basically, I needed like. 2 from him fantasy-wise. He already put up 25 points. I just need one more carry. And I was like, well, there's no way he's going to have another carry. They're just going to put that– the second or third string running back in there. Why would you put the miles on Swift? No, he ran Swift four times to pick up that first down, three times, and then he ran him again. But, yeah, your coach is a psychopath. The things– people were asking why I've been so high in the books because I've just been– I had a run there two weeks in a row. I've been back in the books, and I really love them. It sucks absolutely to put them in our contest last week, but it really has been about the defense and Todd Bowles. 01:01:16 Speaker 2: Yeah, much better. 01:01:17 Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw this from– the DVOA standpoint, like all the nerds are putting all these stats out right now about Tampa. So they are DVOA. They're the best team in history of DVOA. That's three and five. So all the teams that are ever started three and five this season ranked, this is the best team ever, which I know not impressive, right? Three and five record, but they are this season. They are second in DVOA defensively. They're third in special teams and their fifth overall this season in DVOA rankings. That's insane when you think about the Bucs. They're 3-5. They played an undrafted rookie quarterback, and this season they're the fifth-ranked team in the NFL at DVOA, which is, if you're just a nerd and look at the underlying numbers, that really jumps out to you where it's like, all right, this is a really good team. They're just missing the most important part, which is the quarterback. So, yeah, I think we're both on the same page. We wanted to be on the Bucs. This number's too big, but what are we doing, Chad? We're betting on the unknown Baker. He's completed six passes in two weeks, so it's scary. Like it's a game where if I had more confident Baker, this would be one of my bigger bets, but you're stepping in front of a team that they break a lot of the rules right now. And the bears, that's how good they're playing offensively. You could say, and defensively, they might've found something here with Simmons. Like that just everyone around them just seems so hyped up and hyped up having his presence where it's like, you know,

that you found that D line. Imagine going from getting doubled. You're never getting doubled ever again. You're always in single blocking position because Simmons is getting doubled. So, Yeah, it's scary to bet the bucks here, Chad. I'm not going to lie. 01:02:52 Speaker 1: Every single play last night that they showed replays on where the Bears made an impactful play on defense, it was because Jeffrey Simmons was double teamed. Every single time. It was phenomenal to watch. And of course, I got like eight text chains going about the Bears last night. And in one, we were trying to decide who was going to get the game balls. And Jeffrey Simmons, obviously, six tackles, a sack, multiple TFLs. 01:03:29 Speaker 2: Everybody knew. 01:03:30 Speaker 1: And if you watch the game, the post-game video of Ben Johnson giving out the game balls, DeAndre Swift, who had like 60 yards but three touchdowns. Jeffrey Simmons, like, he was everywhere. He was– So impactful. That's why the Bears could change their structure. They didn't even have to blitz that much. 01:03:52 Speaker 3: And they're averaging 30 points, obviously, per game since Caleb's come back offensively. That's against Atlanta, New England, and now Seattle. Really impressive. 01:04:02 Speaker 2: Good defenses. 01:04:04 Speaker 3: Right? 01:04:06 Speaker 2: All right. Monday Night Football. Buffalo, Minnesota, it's three and a half. 01:04:10 Speaker 1: The Minnesota Vikings are three and a half point home underdogs. Little surprised at how much this one has moved, how much money is coming in on the bills. It doesn't seem like it's just the squares backing Josh Allen. As Matt Mitchell likes to note at the end of the day, this is about who scores most is the team that wins. And that is Kyler Murray versus Josh Allen. But at three and a half, that's juicy on a, Really good defense. 01:04:48 Speaker 3: So rule number one, when these two teams play, stupid stuff is going to happen. You have no idea what is going to happen. Now, Matt Mitchell is going to remember this because he's a Bills fan, but a lot of fans out there will remember. This Bills team was killing this Vikings team who was being led by Kirk Cousins, and he had a miraculous comeback, and they scored the most insane touchdown. I think they had a fourth-and-one fumble, too, with Josh Allen. The Bills did. The Vikings got the ball back. Last time they played, they beat them 33-30, the Vikings did, with Kirk Cousins. Bizarre, what type of game. Before that, go way back to Josh Allen. It might have been his rookie or second year. It was when no one thought Josh Allen would be a quarterback in this league. He was absolute trash. The Vikings were like a 10-point favorite at home. I go in the book. The bookmaker's like, yeah, we're 95% of the money today is on the Vikings. Every dollar, every penny is on the Vikings. Oh, 17-point underdog, Matt Mitchell saying in our chat. That's what the Bills were. This is Josh Allen. Those Josh Allens coming out

part. They went 27-6 against that Vikings team. Again, stupidest game ever. You would never see it coming. 17-point underdog. Josh Allen was not who he is today. Bizarro world. And I think the last time they played was in like, I think it was, yeah, 2014. And they won by a point. The Bills did. So that's what I'm trying to describe to your people. These guys, when they play, It's stupid. Everything that's going to happen is not going to happen. It's a bizarre world. So I think the Vikings are going to cover. My read on this is just the Bills have a horrible defense. They'll keep it close. But I'm fully expecting to Minnesota wins this game by 40 points and has a huge blowout or flip side the Bills steamroll this Vikings defense. I don't have a read on it. It's just bizarre when these two teams play. But I can't get over the fact that this is the exact type of defense that could slow down Josh Allen. On the flip side, if Kyler Murray can't put up 25 points against this Bill's defense, yeah, they should probably call up Kirk Cousins and make that trade because you're going to waste another year of a blind forward's defense here. So, yeah, it's a really tough game of handicap. Another game where I feel like me and you are stuck. We just gravitate towards a plus three and a half. I'm telling you people, I went through the history of this and it's like a bizarre world when they play, but I can't get over the fact that this number has gone up. Like Chad said, this was going towards three. Some shops even touched two and a half and a ton of Bill's money came back. So you're not wrong saying there's pro money on the Bill's side. There's some really professional, smart money coming and bumping this back up to three and a half on this Viking side. 01:07:23 Speaker 1: Simon, we're going to have a lot to talk about on Thursday. I'm very curious to see what the sharp calls say. But right now, after all that, I think the most confident, picks that we have Carolina plus two and a half plus three that was the Simon says trade of the week I'm liking the Jets you're not there yet um and probably Seattle minus ten and a half like talk about disparity right but every other game like we had we feel good we like where it's at we want more information we're waiting on things some are just so bizarro world we can't really make a commitment to it yet. Right now, like loving Seattle, loving Carolina, leaning jets. That's what we can say with certainty as we get out of here on Tuesday. Don't forget, hedge the number promo offer. You pre-order the number between now and November 30th. If the Bears, the Bills, or the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, you get your purchase refunded. 01:08:45 Speaker 2: It's not a raffle. It's not a drawing. I'm taking all the risk. 01:08:49 Speaker 1: The first 1,000 copies sold in this window get refunded by as many copies as you want. 01:08:56 Speaker 2: It doesn't matter. Go to chadmillman.com. 01:09:00 Speaker 1: To get all the details to pre-order and to sign up this has been sharper square part of the volume podcast network we will be back on thursday with the games we are zeroing in on Plus our head-to-head battle, Brass Ball, so much more. 01:09:16 Speaker 2: Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. 01:09:18 Speaker 1: Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say. 01:09:26 Speaker 2: Whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Thursday, love you. 01:09:33 Speaker 3: Super Bowl dreams that glowed in the summer sunshine flicker and fade in the autumn shadows. November can be cold and gray. November can be surly, with bitter rain upon the world and winter coming early.