Pełna transkrypcja odcinka NFL WEEK 10 BETS: Commanders-Giants, Vikings-Packers, Patriots-Lions, Bills-Jets, 49ers-Cowboys

going to be all Giants money. I, I, I'm not shocked in movement. You just talked about this potential for really bad weather. This is going to be a rain game and, The Giants have shown they can run the ball. I don't know if Washington's shown that. I don't know if they've shown us consistently they can run the ball. It's just really been, can Daniel save us? This is the lowest buying point, in my opinion, on the commanders this season. People are totally out on them. We talked last week. We try not to buy them beating up that bad Eagles team. They came out at home in a game where your defense played pretty well against Stafford and that Rams team. I think they put up 20 points and Daniels just couldn't do it. It's just you're putting so much on his plate. And without Terry McLaurin, it's all on digs now. They're just short weapons. So another game I had a really tough time with because they're begging us to take the Giants. Why would we not take the Giants? They're the better team. They're the team that covers consistently. They're the only team that feels like the NFC East that can go outside the division and win games, let alone show up for most games every week, week to week. So, yeah, tough time where this was Sunday. I would be all over the commanders, but this just feels like another– You talk, the public is on a nice run here. This feels like it continues here, this primetime game. It just feels like another nice number for the general public. 00:07:45 Speaker 1: New England at Detroit. This game is in Munchen. It's Munich. This one has moved up to three from two and a half. Then it went back down to two and a half. The Detroit Lions are the favorites. The Lions defense, we've talked about this a couple times, but now there's some sort of stark difference data to show us how much better they've been since the buy. They are top 10 in EPA per play on defense and points allowed, meaning fewest points allowed. Their explosive play rate allowed has dropped from league worst before the buy to top 10 since the buy. They stopped blitzing which means their yards per attempt allowed has dropped considerably. We've talked a lot about Brian Branch being a difference maker. I definitely think that's having an impact. The patch just got leveled at home by a defense that is not supposed to be as good as the lions that is still missing pieces. That is on the ascent for sure. The game's in Munich. So, you know, part of me is a little bit antsy about that, but I did play the lions at minus two and a half. Yeah. 00:09:20 Speaker 2: So did I, I, I just, I couldn't, couldn't believe what we watched last week. I was honestly shell shocked. We didn't really talk much about it on Sunday night. I just couldn't believe, cause I need to go back and watch. How did a variable defense give up 45 points at home? 00:09:35 Speaker 1: Yeah like 400 yards passing like every jordan love was just dropping dimes. 00:09:40 Speaker 2: He was incredible but like christian gonzalez who you know they gave him the money he's a shutdown corner he's been great for him to give up i think it was 170 yards receiving and it's like the third worst performance this season by a corner cornerback it's shocking like that that just happened to them and now they're going to get to the Lions team that they haven't not that they haven't looked right but they're coming off a tough Minnesota game but golf and they're coming off a really tough game in Miami you expect this is the exact spot golf gets right and that's why I was so bummed out when this wasn't at home this was in Germany because it's like oh my god this was at home indoors be all over this but Yeah, the fact that it's across the ocean, it's one we'll be tempered with and we won't go too heavy into it because it's just not defensively they look lost, the Patriots, but Drake may come out once again throwing three picks in a game where, you know, meaningless stats, right? You think he almost threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. The three picks is what jumps out. They were just totally lost in that game because he couldn't get together. And we could keep turning to the A.J. Brown part of it, right? The fact that they don't have a guy for him and he's trying to do too much with so little But the Patriots are playing out like we thought they would this year, isn't it? We thought they would be potentially a mid-tier 7th seed team because their schedule is so hard. Here they are, 5th and 4th. It's playing out the way we kind of thought it would. So I can't say I'm too shocked the way the Patriots are going. It's just the way they lost to Green Bay that was so shocking. I thought that was going to be a nice spot. And I know you said like three dogs covered last week. Green Bay was like the most public dog of any dog. Everyone in the world was betting them a 3, 3.5. boy, were they right. Like, that was a no contest. So, yeah, it's hard right now with the Patriots, right? I feel like we both know we should probably be backing them, but we can't lie to ourselves and be like, what are we backing here? We're banking on Vrabel getting the guys right, but Vrabel, he does look like he's missing a little something this year. And the fact that his defense gave up 45 points where you know exactly what Green Bay is doing. They cannot run the ball. They can't block. It's just 50-50 deep balls, and he got beat on every single one it felt like. So, Yeah, I don't know about you, but I'm fighting with this one hard because I really want to bet the line's heavy here, but it's just Vrabel factor is keeping me off it, honestly. 00:11:54 Speaker 1: Well, look, the two and a half to me is sort of the key. I will say this. Another great stat from Evan Abrams. The coaches who have the worst against the current coaches who have the worst against this spread record after the trade deadline, Mike Vrabel and Andy Reid. I don't know if that's about, you know, it could just be a fluke in the timing and a

small sample set, whatever it is. But historically, I think it's pretty explainable. 00:12:26 Speaker 2: It's these two guys who we have great admiration for start off well because they're really good coaches. The public inflates them and the back end, it kind of burns them. Right. That's what that makes perfect sense where it's like we inflate them and eventually gets too much because we just have such high regards and respect for those two coaches. Right. 00:12:43 Speaker 1: My point is it's a fluke of the timing. Like the trade deadline isn't the line of demarcation. It just happens to be a spot on the calendar that you can use as a benchmark because the second half of the year, it gets harder and harder for these guys to cover when they are performing so well. So I'm comfortable with the two and a half. I've taken the two and a half. We are opening the show by taking two short favorites. Never in the history of betting has that backfired on anybody. Let's see if we can write the ship. Cleveland plus four and a half hosting the Houston Texans. Deshaun Watson is starting. The Texans just blew up the Chargers. You know they're going to be a little bit inflated. The Browns just lost to the Saints with Shador. It actually got up to five and a half at one point yesterday. before going back down to four and a half. This is the Browns. I'm comfortable taking them. I would like to bet them. I have not bet them yet because it looks like it may go back up to five at least. I've seen one five pop. So I feel comfortable that it's going in that direction. What am I missing? Am I too close? Do I have a Deshaun bias? But this feels like We know what we're seeing from the Browns at home with this team, with this quarterback. 00:14:17 Speaker 2: Yeah, easy, easy bet. Me and Chad will definitely be losing this one on Sunday in our contest. It's unavoidable. See this whole number. It's like, oh, my God. Anything above three was going to be an auto play on Cleveland here. My only reason I didn't make this Simon says is because my little bit of fear of these rumors of Watson. I know it sounds crazy, but him being moved is a real thing. Like they– They are looking towards the future, Cleveland. It'd be great to win this year and make the playoffs, but if they did that with Shor Sanders or Watson, they don't care either way. If they can get picks for either player, they're happy to move them. So, I mean, are we being serious here about Houston being plus, I mean, minus four and a half? It's a bizarre number. It doesn't make sense. It doesn't, because you just look at how they played this year. Incredible win. After your bye week, you come out, you lay it on the Chargers. That's what good teams should do. So I don't want to diminish them winning by 22 points. I mean, that was insane. But week one, a close game that should have beat Buffalo. We know with that pick, blah, blah, blah. Okay, that probably would have been a three-point game. Then you lose to Cincinnati by

double digits. You lose to the Colts by two. Another very close game. You lose to Dallas by four. Another close game. You blow out Tennessee. You beat Jacksonville 34-31 in England. And you lose to the Giants 21-27. In what world is this team favored by? four and a half points against a team with not only a winning record that plays way better at home, especially defensively. Like that's, what's been saving them this year. Houston is their offense. CJ, I think there's gonna be a tough situation, especially this November. I know we've had crazy weather. It's been super warm. You expect some cold air to be coming down this, this weekend. We've seen most maps. So lake effect type of game, like it should be a little chillier, potentially windier in this matchup. So I just, all the points of the Browns and I was back in this defense at home here and, I just couldn't believe this number. That's my only fear, too. It's just, are we the suckers here? Because they know what they're doing. It's going to be all public money. All the pros are just going to be hammering this Brown side in this number. 00:16:19 Speaker 1: Oh, we're suckers. I think that's been proven again week after week after week. We are terrible when it comes to the Cleveland Browns at a relatively big number. The Cleveland Browns, the next game they win will put them over their season win totals. Good for Todd Munkin. I think the guy, for a lot of football fans, got a bad rap because he seemed like the old dude that John Harbaugh was holding on to for too long. And there were rumors that one of the reasons why Harbaugh was ultimately let go is because he didn't want to get rid of Todd Munkin. And it seemed to an outsider, like the reason this Ravens offense was consistently struggling when it got to the postseason with Lamar was is because of what the game plan might have been. Maybe it was Lamar, as we're seeing, and John Harbaugh is going on to great success with the Giants. Todd Munkin has taken a very subpar team and coached him up really well with great game plans. It's just been fun to watch. I like watching the Cleveland Browns, so I'm rooting for him. I'm rooting for him to get over that season win total. Simon, San Francisco 49ers. are visiting the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys are four and a half point underdogs. Do you have something you'd like to say? 00:17:47 Speaker 2: Simon Says, give me the Cowboys plus four and a half. 00:17:51 Speaker 1: Simon Says, presented by Polymarket, is the Dallas Cowboys plus four and a half, currently trading at 53% at Polymarket. 00:18:06 Speaker 2: It's going to be tough, people. It's going to be tough to try to sell you on this one. I understand why right now the other side is getting so much love in the 49ers, but this is just a simple time where once again we're playing the number and just an inflated 49ers team. We talked. There was five turnovers by the Raiders last week, Chad. Yeah. 00:18:26 Speaker 1: Just to be clear, because the

stat is so astounding, four of the first five possessions in the second half were turnovers. Three of those Inside the Niners territory, two of those at the Niners goal line, just to be clear. 00:18:41 Speaker 2: So you're coming off a game where everything went right for the 49ers. They covered a big, big, big, big number. And now on the other side, you're looking at Cowboys team that I think everyone's mad at, right? They didn't come through for them against a bad team. And it's once again, just that they have a horrible defense, tons of penalties, sloppy coach. That's what people are figuring out. I just really doubt this is a resilient team that had a lot of things go wrong from this year, especially Dak. in this offense and they've held it together. So just another big number like this to me, I'm hoping people will get this in time. I'm playing market where it's still four and a half, where I just know pros, especially guys I've talked to, they're going to come in on the Cowboys. And this will be another very, very heavy side of public all over 49ers and the Cowboys. Just a couple of us pros taking this big number in an offense that they're, they cover these big numbers. Me and you have made good money fading the Cowboys when they're big favorites, anything over three and other side when they're, they're a big dog. It's just they find a way to cover these big numbers as dogs, and this is the unique spot at home as a big dog. 00:19:42 Speaker 1: Mike Evans, the report is that he's questionable at best in Week 10. uh joey porter george pickens unknown there are reports that pickens is closer to coming back i haven't seen anything updated on joey porter yet. 00:20:01 Speaker 2: Pickens might get traded that's true That's also part of it too. He might be a chief by the time you hear this, unfortunately. So, yeah, we don't know what might happen in that situation. 00:20:10 Speaker 1: Totally, totally true. But Mike Evans being questionable at best, I know that it didn't really make a difference for us against the Raiders this past weekend. But I still think that is something that is in play when you are playing potentially against a team with just a more competent– offense than what we had with the Raiders. So Simon says this week, Dallas Cowboys, four and a half trading at 53% on Polymarket. I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. The Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweatpicks together. every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Simon, the Jacksonville Jaguars have just decided to go all in. They traded the Falcons for safety Jesse Bates. They traded the Saints for defensive tackle Devon Godshaw. They traded with the Eagles for A first and a second for Jordan Davis. I know they've got some issues right now because they lost one of their best defensive tackles. Devon Hamilton is out for the year. So they're looking to backfill in a rush defense that is elite. And if you look at the stats, their rush defense inside the tackles, best in the NFL. But you watch the Eagles more than anyone. This feels, Jordan Davis feels like a little bit of a reach for that price. But it just means that's how committed they are to going to get this. By the way, they're 10 and a half point favorites on the road at Tennessee. Line's gone up. Up from nine and a half. 00:22:47 Speaker 2: A little of overpay just because you're also eating all that money he just got paid. Like he literally just got a brand new contract. It's not like they're getting them on a good contract. It's... It's all in like this. That's what the Simmons one made a little bit more sense where that is a little bit of better of a contract. Cause he's, he's worth every penny where Jordan Davis can't see the same when he's on though. He's incredible. So that's why I don't hate the move for them. You know, this is no different than what the Rams did, right? The Rams burned, burned the ships, they burned the boats that got the Superbowl ring at cub because of it. I don't hate the move, right? This is what's his name. Gladstone. I think his name is the young kid. He was the GM. Yeah. I mean, I'll always make fun of him because he was so arrogant and cocky and he had done nothing. But the move he did made that's going to change this franchise is the Liam Cohn. Like that was the game changing move that whether it was the owner or him that stepped in and made that move, they gave an absurd amount of money after he was already became the highest paid offensive coordinator in football to stay in Tampa. And they flew out the private jet, brought him to the Jags, and he's totally changed how dumb Trevor Lawrence was. So. We're sitting here. They get Tennessee Giants and Tennessee here. They're basically minus 1,000 to win the division. It's all set in place. Now they have, I think they're plus 700. They may have the third shortest odds. 00:24:04 Speaker 1: They do. 00:24:05 Speaker 2: Dumb bet off the top. We'll say we both agree. If it's Josh Allen or Mahomes catching the Jags and the Plows, I don't care if they're in Jacksonville. Are you really going to take the Jags? They're going to be a dog. They'll be getting a good number. That's why

it's It's interesting the books have moved it that way. It's just public sentiment, right? That's the public dictating that movement because they are making the slash plays. Like, I mean, we're talking about Jordan Davis. I love the Bates move. Like, to me, if you watch Atlanta's defense, anytime they need a tackle, whether it's the running back or receiver, you know, their corners miss a tackle, Bates is always there. He's just so good. And that was another weird move where it's like he's going to be 30. I don't know if they're going to pay him or sign him. But for just this year, Bates and Davis, like– The Jags defense, I love that move. So, Tennessee, this number being this big is warranted. The Jags are just so good right now. Such a dominant team. They don't play with their food. They blow teams out. It doesn't matter, right, that they're coming off extended rest. I guess that helps a little bit coming off Thursday. But, yeah, this is such a big number. I know we'll both be tempted to take Tennessee. I'm hoping just to stay away. Maybe throw a little in Tennessee as the week goes along here. But you see it right now. It's like I just– What am I betting here with Tennessee? Am I really banking on Cam Ward to keep this game close? 00:25:22 Speaker 1: No, you're not. And in fact, in two games against Cam Ward, Liam Cohn has beaten him 66 to 10. The numbers with Liam Cohn and Trevor Lawrence as favorites, as big favorites, Simon, are staggering. 00:25:43 Speaker 2: Talk us into the Jags, Chad. Do it. Let's hear it. 00:25:47 Speaker 1: I really wanted to say, don't we have to hold our nose and bet a massive home dog, even if it's the Titans? 00:25:54 Speaker 2: I don't want to. So I can be talking to the Jags here. Do it. 00:25:57 Speaker 1: Then you know what? If we're betting, it's not you're taking a little bit of taste of Tennessee. If we're betting anything in this game, we're betting the Jags. And I'm totally comfortable. I'm not saying it's going to the contest, but I'm totally comfortable with eating it buying into the recency bias, betting on the public. But I think this team is at such a state of belief right now. And you start to see this with teams as the season goes on and they continue to dominate. And what you just said about Trevor Lawrence and Liam Cohn is key. It's almost like he's in his head. Trevor is just sort of the perfect avatar And Liam Cohn is moving him around the way he wants to move him around. 00:26:49 Speaker 2: I will say this for Tennessee. Just give them a little flowers because we are just destroying them here. They lost to Cincy for their bye week, 43-36. Lost to Cleveland, 27-24. And then they beat the Colts, 26-20. So they've been very competitive. 00:27:05 Speaker 1: They've been more competitive. 00:27:07 Speaker 2: They've been way more competitive than I feel like we're giving them credit for right here. I do apologize to Tennessee fans because I feel like Tennessee fans are going to end this up and be like, Hey, they've been competitive and it's totally fair. We're giving flowers to these terrible other teams. We should give some flowers to Tennessee for at least being competitive in these games. But I think we're both on the same page where it just feels like a steamroll type of matchup where it's like they're coming out of this bye week. You can't run the ball. That's what's been the saving grace in all those matchups. They've been able to run the ball at Pollard. It's the best run defense in football. I mean, you saw King Henry couldn't do anything. And I know obviously Cam Ward's going to be a different offense than the third string quarterback for the Ravens, but it just shows where it's like Take away a team, a bad team's run game, put it all on a bad quarterback's shoulders. That's what I mean. It's going to be Cam Ward. He's going to have to be the one that covers this big number. So I'm right there with you on the Jags. 00:27:54 Speaker 1: I'm glad we got there. By the way, the teams with the four shortest odds to win the Super Bowl right now, the Buffalo Bills, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Chicago Bears. You may remember, and this is a cool stat, Once we get to Thanksgiving, nine out of the past 10 Super Bowl winners have come from the four teams with the shortest odds, which is astonishing to me. So that's going to be something that we might want to think about round robinning. But you may recall that I made this silly offer to people. They could preorder the number. And if the Bills, the Chiefs, or the Bears win the Super Bowl, they are getting their money back. This is going to cost me so much money because all of a sudden, like these teams that were middle of the pack to top of the pack are now basically the teams that, if history holds, are likely to win the Super Bowl. Go to chadmillman.com and get refunded your purchase price when one of these teams wins and it'll be egg on my face. and money out of my pocket. Simon, Minnesota at Green Bay. Green Bay is a five and a half point favorite. What's interesting is this number really only moved middle of this morning. It was still at four and a half, even when I was like doing notes for the show at around 10 a.m. Eastern. The reason why I haven't really piled onto the Packers yet is because over the next two hours, are we going to see the Vikings trade for a quarterback? But it is not trending in the right direction for Kyler to play this week. Also, per Evan, favorites with a rest advantage, which are the Packers in this case, 21, five and one against the spread this year. Also the Jacksonville Jaguars. 00:30:04 Speaker 2: Yeah. We talked about the Warren sharp breast advantage thing has been huge this year. Huge, huge whole thing about that. It's usually closer to 55, 56% this year. Like you said, it's 21 and five. That's insane. Insane outlier type of season against the spread. So yeah, I, I immediately went to bed in Minnesota, so I'm happy we can

potentially avoid it. Cause I just, you know, I had a buddy turn to me. He's like, you know, He obviously was on the bills last night. He's like, you feel like the smartest guy in the room right now? Betting on Carson Wentz? And it's like, fuck you, man. No, I do not. It's just a miserable, miserable experience. I'm actually going to the Sixers tonight with him against the Celtics, so I'm sure I'll hear more about it. But I just– I looked– like last night, it just– if you see, if the Vikings have a quarterback that can complete three down passes, they're going to be a great team. They will be in every game in Minnesota. But they don't have that right now in Carson Wentz. He just– Can't do it. And you can lie to yourself and say, well, he had those three touchdowns in that crazy game against Green Bay. That was heavily dictated by the referees like we talked about at the time. The refs so many times got him third downs. And it's what we talk all the time about Carson Wentz. If he can get into a rhythm for a quarter, he can look incredible. It's just impossible for him to get into that rhythm. He's so bad and so inconsistent that, you know, they'd be better off telling him he's not going to start all week and then right before kickoff be like, hey, you're starting. It just seems like he's doing his own head. Can't complete a simple check down. Holds on the ball too long. I mean, there's a clip going viral on the internet right now of like three guys running wide open, and he throws it right to a Bills defender's chest in the middle of the field. And it's like bizarre world. It really is. So can't tell people to bet the Packers here. It's just so trappy, but I also can't give up the Vikings. So kind of stalemated on this one. Hopefully if it's Kyler, I would take them. I know people have no faith in Kyler either. 00:31:53 Speaker 1: I don't know that it's going to be Kyler. 00:31:56 Speaker 2: Because, yeah, you think he's going to miss most likely. 00:31:58 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:31:59 Speaker 2: I can't tell people to back Wentz right now. He just looks like unbettable as a backer. 00:32:03 Speaker 1: Imagine what it's like. We're recording this. It's 1230-ish or whatever here on the East Coast. The trade deadline is three and a half hours away. Imagine what it's been like in that Vikes war room for the past 10 hours, 12 hours. Everybody in the leagues knows that. the situation they're in. Everybody in the league knows they've got such a fantastic defense and they are wasting it. They are wasting a golden opportunity. You know, it's funny. I was interviewing someone for the book who had worked as a brilliant, brilliant person who had worked as a scout for the Eagles and worked as a scout analyst for the Browns. while they were still in college. They went to an Ivy League school and were, you know, preternaturally gifted with analytics and math and whatever. They're now a prediction market trader. And I was talking to them about why didn't you continue to go in the NFL? And their answer was, it's so hard to control the outcome. You can do everything right. One guy gets hurt. One scenario goes wrong. One play goes the other way. And the only way you even have some semblance of control is as a play caller. And this person happened to be a woman and she was like, I was never going to get a chance to be a play caller. But it speaks to how challenging it is to have everything go right to win a Super Bowl. It's what people say all the time. We're seeing it in real time with the Vikings right now. Like the tragedy that is not being able to support that defense. The panic trade that may happen because of this with a new GM is fascinating. How would you handle this? What would you do? What would you give up to get someone on this team who is competent and can get you potentially to the Super Bowl? 00:34:05 Speaker 2: But how can you trust the same GM that has made every wrong QB decision, it seems. 00:34:10 Speaker 1: Like, at every turn? 00:34:11 Speaker 2: Well, it is a new... The same with KOC. That's the problem. He's totally missed the mark in many ways as well. So you keep harping on the defense too. Like Justin Jefferson... Not enough is made about that. And that's why, like, again, we're not going to talk about the whole A.J. Brown situation from last year. That's why I was trying to explain to you how egregious of an outlier that was. Why isn't there a report out right now, Chad, of Justin Jefferson wants to be traded to a new team? This is last year's numbers. He had 84 catches for 1,000 yards, two touchdowns. That was last year. This year, he's got 390 yards and four touchdowns this year. Still, though, you're talking about the best receiver in football. You're not hearing a peep out of him because you know why you don't hear a peep out of him? Because that's the way it is in the NFL. That's why last year that whole report, the A.J. Brown thing from one reporter, that's my whole point. That's why I know you want to stay away from him. But it's like, dude, that whole thing was such a bad look. And that's why it's like Justin Jefferson being a professional. But you know he's hitting people up probably complaining because he's the best receiver in football potentially. Like he is a top three receiver. It's unbelievable. And he's had nothing for two years now. And like that meme last night of, Carson Wentz being like, I got you, and him being like, yeah, you got me. And then just that dead stare forward of being like, this man does not got me or anybody. That's another reason if you're the GM, you have to get a quarterback. You cannot let this keep going the way it is. At least show the guys. Show the defense. Show Jeff Jefferson you're trying your best. So I'm like you. I'm like, are you really about to give up a third or fourth for Kirk? But the Raiders got you. They got you. They can lie to us and say, hey, we're a playoff-contending team. We don't need to give him up. Overpay right

now for a guy that's having a great season. He could easily fit into your system. So yeah, it's Kirk, Deshaun Watson, all these names being floated around. It'd be shocking if either of them get moved, but it makes sense. That's where the Vikings are right now. 00:36:00 Speaker 1: I want to keep checking my phone just because I want there to be a news break while we're on so we can get some answers on this. Haven't seen it yet. Miami at Indy. Indy's a two and a half point favorite. Daniel Jones is staying, it looks like. Jonathan Taylor is still there as of now. This did get down to one and a half yesterday. You can see sort of the rise tracking with the news that Daniel Jones wouldn't be traded. It's so funny to me that there's any value ascribed at all to Daniel Jones. It's been funny to me Since we used to see him in New York, it's been funner to me that he got this huge contract. This has been a player whose promise has been what everyone has been banking on. And I understand there are Achilles issues and he's coming back from this stuff. But this was never a guy you were building a Super Bowl team around. And so even the move yesterday going from one and a half to two and a half because he's going to be there. Do I care? I don't want to bet this game either way. 00:37:07 Speaker 2: Yeah, not even that. You have to pay him. You're not trading for a guy on a one-year deal. This man has a ton of millions and millions of dollars coming his way, and you really want to trade for Daniel Jones, like Chad said, off an Achilles with a ton of money owed to him. I know people are throwing his name around the Vikings. I just can't see it. So that, to me, is why the line's moved. I think a lot of people got a little worried that he was going to be traded. That's part of it. And I know you don't want to do anything with this game. I am bought in on the Colts. I can't help it here. You are. yeah, it's just too low of a number against a Miami team that who have been good. They've been competitive this year. They are legitimately terrible. And I think Malik is hurt. Like if you go back and watching him as the lines, there's so many times where he didn't look right running with the ball where normally he burns guys and people can't catch him when he was getting caught. So I don't have any inside info. There's nothing I know about any type of injury he does have. I just thought he looked different in that game. That's another part of the reason I kind of want to get off this Miami, Miami team here. It's, uh, a line that if it was three and a half, I could have easily, or even three, I maybe could be talking to Miami, but two and a half, one and a half. If it goes either way with the Colts and Daniel Jones, still the quarterback, even if they got rid of the Jonathan Taylor, I could probably still lie to myself into taking this one. But if they got rid of Taylor, a couple of their players, there's no way I'm going to pitch you Sunday morning. I'm taking the Colts, but it just still feels like the general public still undervalued a team that they are bad. The Colts, like we've talked about, I watched that game. They're, they're a bad team. They've had some really bad luck this year. And you know, they're, kind of paying for it with the numbers. Like they opened last week at six, got better way down to four and a half, landed right on four, got really lucky if you had the four and a half, obviously not pushed on the four, but it feels the same thing here where this line, they're kind of just feeling it out here, the shops and the books, and we've seen it now go from, like Chad said, one and a half back to two and a half. You can see it keep going to three, especially they keep all their players here at the trade deadline. 00:39:00 Speaker 1: Buffalo bills at the New York Jets, the number's eight. The Jets were at eight and a half and then it got bought back while we've been on the show. What do we do here? Who is going to bet the Jets? How high will this thing get? What's the pressure point, Simon? Because I know you made a claim on Sunday after I made us put the Jets in the contest and they disappointed us despite they had the chance to pull that cover from the jaws of defeat. He said, we're not betting the Jets anymore. They've become like the Titans. But when is it impossible to pass on the Jets? What number? 00:39:35 Speaker 2: Get us to 10. I still don't think it's big enough. You have an offense that only wants to kick field goals. On the flip side, you have a psychopath in Joe Brady that does not care. Josh Allen will come back from the sideline after throwing a horrible pick. And he'll say, perfect, that's exactly what we want. He has a sense of freshness and bravado, which men are always eager to feel and to which they often respond. That's what you want. If you're a Bills fan, you want this psycho running that offense for the Bills because this man just does not care. If he could beat the Jets by 50 points here, he would happily oblige them. Like this man, he wants it all with this Bills offense. And we know that was a total smokescreen for that Bills defense. Was that the Bills defense finally stepping up and being good or Was that more so just Carson Wentz being terrible? 00:40:18 Speaker 1: That was Carson Wentz being terrible. I mean, for all the stuff about Carson Wentz and he was truly awful, there were moments in that game, his offensive line did not do him any favors. Like he was under pressure so often with someone in his grill. He was terrible, but he didn't get a chance to be good at any point. No. 00:40:41 Speaker 2: And just looking at the matchup wise though, that, as bad as the bill secondary is, they do have some guys up front. They can get pressure. Right. I mean, you saw last night, we saw how to hell of a game. Yeah. 00:40:51 Speaker 1: Great year. 00:40:52 Speaker 2: Yeah, he is. So yeah, that's what we've seen with Gino, even against that chiefs game, we harped on it.

Like they got no pressure. The chiefs, they got pressure in that game. Yeah. I mean, that was the one thing we didn't expect to happen in the second half. They got a bunch of different looks, got different, different pressures. And yeah, it's a game where I know the bills one, but I think offensively, like, this feels like the exact type of game or Josh out takes out a lot of his frustrations from the previous game. Like it really does where they played such a vanilla, boring offense, but that's what they need to do to win that game. Right. Josh just did what it took to win that game. And you see this opportunity here and it's like, Oh my God, this just defense can't stop anybody. They just made a chiefs team that can't throw the ball and win three yards downfield. Looked like an incredible, what did they put up? 35 chat by 20 points. So it's like, Yeah, that's my whole point is I just can't tell people to bet them. And obviously, if you came in here super strong like you were last week, I'll support you. But deep down, I'm not putting a penny to the Jets right now. If they fire Aaron Glenn or something like that in a week or two, maybe I'll make that move with them. They just need something changed here. These last few weeks, just them taking field goals and then looking amemic in the second half against a lot of these teams, I just can't back them right now. 00:42:10 Speaker 1: Geno Smith, I'm so sick of this. 00:42:14 Speaker 2: Carolina at– And I do want to say real quick on the Bills. They just basically played a third-string quarterback, a third-string quarterback. They get the Jets and they get Miami here. We really don't know. I know Matt Mitchell gave us that crazy stat that basically every 7-1 team for the Bills goes to the Super Bowl. We still don't really know what this Bills team is yet. But after that run of just dumpster fire trash– They get Chiefs, New England, Green Bay, Bears, and then Denver. That's a real stretch and a real test. We'll kind of get a grasp of is this the worst defense in football or they've gotten better every week and improved this year because, listen, they beat up these backup third-string quarterbacks the last two weeks. Maybe they'll do good again against the Jets, Miami, and it's like, okay, at least they've been improved where, I mean, those first seven weeks there looked like the worst defense in the entire NFL, so. I just wanted people to realize if you're thinking about Ben and Bill's Super Bowl futures here, you're going to get way better value after that four-game stretch. 00:43:14 Speaker 1: Bears-Bills, Super Bowl preview. How will Matt Mitchell and I handle it? Carolina at the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are one-and-a-half-point favorites. I'm going to call it now. Matt Mitchell, make sure you save this, clip it. Let's have it ready for Sunday night. Shame, shame, shame. on Chad Millman for falling for it, for falling for the Carolina Panthers at plus one and a half. I don't know why Carolina

is the underdog here. Is this about the Panthers' offensive line? If I'm the Panthers, I give the ball to Chuba Hubbard 40 times because the Saints' rush defense is amongst the worst in the league overall. Bottom five of rush yards allowed after contact. Hubbard has the sixth most yards after contact. So of course we want to bet the Panthers in this spot. We're not sort of phased by what happened last week against the Broncos. That was the one loss that felt like we really did have the right side. Am I wrong? Am I foolish? Am I stepping into it? Help me. Help me. Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi. 00:44:37 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I tried my best Sunday night not to just harp on that whole challenge thing with the Broncos and Sean Payton throwing a challenge flag after they'd already basically took a snap. And I trod a little bit just talking about the Carolina kicker. It was really me talking about the refs. The refs in that game were so horrible against the Panthers. And that's what stinks where it's like, This should be an easy face by the Panthers. Panthers are supposed to be coming off a win at home against a Broncos team and be feeling themselves right now, but they're not. On the flip side, it's a Saints team that had a really dramatic win in a game where they also probably should have won by a touchdown at minimum. They dominated that game in every way. They just had stupid turnovers, weird little breakdowns on third and 15s against Shador Sanders that made that into an overtime game. And I told you, it's like the Saints– They're playing a really competitive overtime game. I kind of want to fade them now off that type of scenario, like that type of win. But I think we're split here. I'll join you on the Panthers in a tease. I'll tease them up to seven and a half. But I get what the books are doing. I think the Saints should be favored, honestly. This just feels like another. Really? Yeah, they're not that much worse than the Panthers. Not just because the Panthers have had some injuries, like you've said. It's just overall this team, the Panthers, have been different to me on the road than they have been at home. They played way better and more competitive at home. But you're not lying. Bryce Young should light up this Saints defense. Drew Roberts should run the ball over the Saints team. But seeing the flip side through, it's like I think the Saints will be able to move the ball against this Panthers team. So I know we hear it all the time from people. It's just like, can we just stay from these NFC South divisional matches? 00:46:17 Speaker 1: I know. Why does it always happen? 00:46:18 Speaker 2: I totally get it. I know. I know. So maybe I'll just take the safe route and just tease the Panthers up 7.5. Like, no way. Panthers get blown out in this game. It just feels it'll be very competitive last second type of game. But yeah, if our hearts can't take a chat, we don't have to do it. We could stay away from this one. 00:46:32 Speaker 1: Well, look,

the problem is I can't stay away from the NFC South because the next game we're talking about is Kansas city at Atlanta. Atlanta is a three and a half point home underdog. And despite the fact we have been getting drilled and tasered and crushed anytime we're betting a three and a half point underdog in any scenario over the past couple of weeks, uh, I can't quit the Atlanta Falcons. This is going to be Chad's choice. We talked about it on Sunday night. We know the Falcons have a mediocre rush defense. So that is a challenge against Kenneth Walker, especially when Patrick Mahomes is a little bit banged up, right? Because of the elbow and what happened against the Jets. But the Falcons are excellent at pressuring the passer without blitzing. Amongst the five best in the league, They don't get a ton of sacks, but they can keep guys in coverage. The Jets, I cannot emphasize enough, they had nine penalties on Sunday, and nearly every one of them came at the worst possible time. This is not a matchup play for me. It's totally a numbers play. Chad's choice, Atlanta Falcons. I'm going to be on the team that just, against the team that just blew someone out. I'm playing on the home team that just got blown out. 00:47:53 Speaker 2: I'm hard-broken. I thought for sure Chad's choice was going to be Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh had Chad's choice written. 00:47:59 Speaker 1: All over it. By the way, that was my second choice. When I got on, before you came on, I said Atlanta, and he goes, oh, interesting. You just can't stop, huh? I go, well, I was going to do Pittsburgh, and then he didn't say anything. So I just– I stuck with Atlanta. 00:48:16 Speaker 2: Yeah, because I wanted to hear your pitch, but I just– The Falcons, I'll join you again. I will join you on the Falcons. We said something I knew right away that was going to be, right when I saw the line, I was like, Chad's going to love this. I'm going to have to bet it with him. You know, obviously, I don't know if you want to pitch your article once again about your. 00:48:36 Speaker 1: Oh, no, I moved on. I moved on from that. I'm thinking about the next article now. 00:48:41 Speaker 2: But yeah, it's anytime, anytime a Holmes is over a three point favorite, you know, we tend to want to go against them. And it's a scenario of, like you said, it's the Falcons team that my biggest hesitation would be, same reason I'm really heavy in fading the Bengals, is you have an international team skipping the bye. And you just gave up that stat. The rest doesn't matter. 00:49:02 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, totally. 00:49:04 Speaker 2: And we're late here in the season. And they just gave away J.C. Bates. Like, that stuff doesn't matter to me. That number hasn't budged. So that just shows not only Chad on it, but a ton of really, really strong professional money is it so maybe i'm missing it here i'm just i'm very weary of this line but you're you're on the right side of the pros they're hammering this falcon side in the public they cannot get enough of this chief's team because they're just from their standpoint which i totally get it's like chad just said they won by double digits and a falcons team got blown out in a standalone international game like it just no one's going to be back in this team so Um, I don't think this number goes below three and a half. Anything could potentially go up. So I'm interested with the pros do with it. Cause right now it's really sharp money holding it where it is. Like I was shocked. This hasn't run up. Cause we said Sunday night, it was this exact number and it's been millions and millions of dollars of just pouring on the chiefs and it's not budge. So I'll support you, buddy. I hope you're right here. But my God, I'm back when I was just like, God, please take the Steelers so I can be all in the chat. And unfortunately it was the Falcons. I was like, all right, I gotta talk myself into this pick now. 00:50:09 Speaker 1: Maybe I'm saving the Steelers for sharp versus square. That just might be what it is. Los Angeles Rams visiting the Arizona Cardinals. Cardinals are nine and a half points. There's chaos, total chaos in this one. Minshew is out. Michael Wilson is out. What's remarkable is it's very likely that Michael Wilson was playing with a season-ending neck injury in the second half last week. And Minshew was playing with a UCL ligament injury in the second half. Puka is– so Carson Beck is playing. The list of receivers available for the Cardinals is, you know, anonymous content over here. Puka is out. Does Stafford have an elbow issue? That is the conspiracy theory of the day. 00:51:03 Speaker 2: Okay. 00:51:07 Speaker 1: I don't know what to do here. Got a couple of games coming up where I'm, I'm, I'm a little bit agnostic. 00:51:15 Speaker 2: Yeah. I probably ended up on the Rams. The more interesting to me is that I've heard from a lot of fans who are worried about our standalone all in future, but our Rams, the missed up playoffs at, I mean, you could have got it at plus four 50 plus a hundred plus 400, all these different numbers. I've heard a lot from a lot of fans that, And I keep sending them just a screenshot of the schedule. And this is all going to plan. They've had the injuries, which we thought were going to come. Obviously, every team deals with injuries, but we just talk about this is an older team, a lot of banked on a lot of single players, like a lot of guys are all in on. Puka is one of them. The reason this whole team works is because Puka is a fifth-round pick on a rookie contract, and he's a top-five receiver on football. He's their number-one weapon by far. He's going to be out most likely four to five weeks, right? And they get Arizona, they get their bye week. Then they get Green Bay, the Chiefs, the 49ers, Dallas, Seattle, and Tampa. Jesus. Then Seattle. So their easiest game that whole stretch is Dallas, which, yeah, Dallas, you can think they're a pushover. To this Rams team, they're not a

pushover. The Rams are not a good enough team to just walk into Dallas or at home, I should say, and beat Dallas. Like Dallas is going to light them up most likely. So, yeah, I just– As soon as I looked at that schedule, it's like, that's why I was so heavy into this. It's like, can they survive the grueling season and a grueling finish? Like their division is so tough and yeah, you get through easy ones against Arizona, but you're having to play Seattle twice in the year. And now Tampa in between, we just talked Tampa is one of the hardest hitting defenses we've seen this year. Who knows what that'll be like in late December and January, but it's like, oh my God, that's, that is just an insane stretch in the year. So I'm not, worried yet about our Rams bet. Thanks to the NFC, the NFC North, like they might, NFC North might have four playoff teams or. 00:53:03 Speaker 1: As of today, they do. 00:53:04 Speaker 2: Yeah. Or Seattle gets that last spot. Like I'm not totally worried about this, this. So I know we didn't talk much about this game. I just want to talk about the futures. Cause that's where more money is where me and Chad in this game, I maybe we'll both talk ourselves into the Rams. I just, am I really about the back Carson Beck and his first start with the Cardinals on a team that is now down to their, number three receiver being the number one receiver because Martin Harris got traded. As much as we harp about how great McBride is, I don't think the Rams are just going to double him now. It's like, why would you not just bring a safety up with a linebacker or a corner and just double? Say, all right, we'll do a single shell against your guys on the outside and let Carson Beck beat the one-on-ones. It's just a very easy plan for the Rams here where they can just run the ball. They don't need Puka in this game. It's going to hurt them long-term. I just gave you that schedule. They can't get away and win those games without Puka, but Yeah, Arizona and then a bye week. Yeah, this is a nice two-week stretch here for this Rams team. 00:54:00 Speaker 1: I've been staying away from Seattle as a three-and-a-half point road favorite at the Raiders, mainly because I don't know who's going to be quarterback for the Raiders yet. I mean, I guess if I think Kirk is going to get traded, I should take a flyer on Seattle at three-and-a-half. Drew Locke is going to play. That's the news from Mike McDonald yesterday. You have a strong opinion here? I don't have an opinion. I haven't made a play. That's it. That's all I have to say about it. 00:54:32 Speaker 2: And you're right in my mind. I immediately bet the minus three. We could get it on Sunday night. You still got to go out this morning. Now it's up to minus three and a half. I'd still bet it. And this is simply like I don't– it's not like I'm banking on Sam Darnold coming back. It most likely is like Chad Sugg and Drew Locke who– It's partially hurt, and it's not a great feeling, obviously, and I totally get why the professionals are going to come in on this other side of the Raiders, but it's– Kirk isn't the quarterback, and this is a rookie making his first start against one of the best defensive minds in all of football. That's the exact reason why– Yeah, that's the exact reason why he went back to the Seahawks team. Yeah, they got a big win last week. They're just like us. They're looking at the schedule. They see the NFC North. They can't take any game lightly, this team in Seattle. They've already blown games they shouldn't have blown this year. This is another– Guys are going to bring the wood here, and I don't think they're going to be a letdown spot here. So, yeah, maybe I can convince you come Sunday if there's no Kirk on taking the Seattle team. But it's the type of thing where on Thursday after our show, if they still have Kirk, I'm not going to try to convince you to take the Seahawks. But if he gets traded today, it's a nice opportunity to just put a small bet here on the Seahawks just in case that if it is the rookie starting, even with Drew Locke, this could easily run up to minus six, potentially minus seven on the Seahawks team. 00:55:47 Speaker 1: I don't want to see my guy Fernando have to open his career against a Super Bowl defending champion defense that knows what comes after the middle of November is just going to be a stretch of stink that could take them out of contention. Fernando. Simon. The Pittsburgh Steelers are visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are 3.5 points. Favorites, old school matchup from the North. Another one we discussed on Sunday night. You should remind everyone of the Bengals stat that you shared. I can't remember if you shared it on the show or if it was after when we were all chit-chatting with Matt Mitchell. Do you remember what I'm talking about? 00:56:42 Speaker 2: Improv. I only give my best stats in private to Chad and Matt Mitchell. That's how we do things over here. Very official show. 00:56:51 Speaker 1: No, it was about their record. 00:56:52 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah. That's what I'm saying. I gave you the stat after the show, but yeah, the Cincinnati team, they've beaten six teams this year. Those teams have a combined record of 1434. The two teams they lost to are 12 and four. So that's just a blind stat of they've been beating up on really bad teams this year. They've obviously gone 0-2 against teams, the only two teams they've played above. 500 in. Yeah, I look at this matchup, and I think to myself, okay, am I overrating the Steelers team a little too much? Because this line doesn't make sense. We just talked about the Bengals are skipping the bye week. They're coming back from overseas. Joe Burrow has performed miracles, and we've given him props. These last couple weeks, I'd have to look at the stat line again, but it's like something absurd where he's like. 00:57:41 Speaker 1: 16 touchdowns in four games, and he is now the odds-on favorite ahead of Josh Allen to win

the MVP. 00:57:52 Speaker 2: And just a reminder, those four games was Miami, the Ravens, Tennessee, and Atlanta. So Pittsburgh, as much gripe as you want to give them, they've been highly competitive this year, especially defensively, and the record proves that out. They've won a lot of games that I don't think a lot of people thought they were going to win, and they've surprised people this year. McCarthy surprised me. 00:58:12 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's been really impressive. 00:58:14 Speaker 2: Yeah, the offense has looked much better this year. Whatever he's done with Rodgers, whatever confidence he's given to Rodgers. Rodgers is throwing some balls here. Like, oh, my God, that's vintage 30-year-old Rodgers, not 42-year-old. So, yeah, that's why I'm so upset this isn't Chad's choice. It was like this is all– it's Chad written all over you. 00:58:31 Speaker 1: All right, you know what then? Here's what we can do, Simon. We can change things up. Matt Mitchell, we're changing it. Chad's choice is going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half. We're making a change. 00:58:45 Speaker 2: Poor Matt Mitchell. 00:58:46 Speaker 1: Be the change you want to be. As I tell my kids, when it's time to vote, when it's time to participate, when it's time to get involved, be the change that you want to be. We're making that change right now. 00:59:01 Speaker 2: And this is what I tell my unborn children. Bullying works. See what I did there, kids? My future kids when you're watching this. 00:59:07 Speaker 1: Yeah, I. 00:59:10 Speaker 2: just... The rest disparity already had me jumping off point. And the fact that this is such an evenly matched divisional game had me already kind of loving the Steelers. And you just look at the betting markets, the way it's going. Most places right now are inundated with tons and tons and tons of Bengals money. And it's like, they just... The public cannot get enough of this primetime game. Same exact type of thing we kind of had with Sunday night, right? The peak of the Bears buying. I mean, the amount of Bears fans reaching out to me being like, how could you fade us here? How could you back this Tampa team? And it's just like, it's got to go the other way. You can't come off your best win of the year and not have it go the other way. And the fact that the Bears found a win in that game just shows how great they are. Are the Bengals that great? Because this is another trappy spot. The Steelers, maybe they sleepwalk in the first half coming off their bye week, but The fact that they're so healthy and well-rested playing a team that hasn't had– they had their bye week in week six, but they haven't had a rest coming off an international game. We've seen this year. It's caught up to teams, especially in the second half. So, yeah, I love it, Chad. Chad's choice, plus three. Steelers. 01:00:13 Speaker 1: We know teams coming back from the international game struggle against the spread. I don't think they've covered against the spread against teams who had the bye when they did not take their bye. So, definitely– A spot. Listen, I don't look at it as bullying, Simon. 01:00:32 Speaker 2: No. 01:00:32 Speaker 1: I look at it as. 01:00:33 Speaker 2: Bullying, you need some name calling it for it to really be bullying. 01:00:35 Speaker 1: I look at it as two friends coming together, looking out for each other, helping each other make the best decision possible for the aggregate. That's what this show is about. Chad's choice, Pittsburgh Steelers, making a change. Writing it down. Simon, the Los Angeles Chargers are visiting the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are five and a half point favorites look we set it on the show are we back in the are we back in the ravens or not we know we might step in it it can't go on forever for the chargers is this the spot where we're going to get burned because we decide we're finally piling on. 01:01:13 Speaker 2: But aren't you happy to see the pros joined us i told people the bet they did on just in case herbert was out at minus three minus three and a half on the ravens and now it's five and a half so it's like at least We bet it at the best of the number, and I still think we're getting the best of the number. If Herbert is out, this keeps going up. This might get to seven, even though it's per set. You just trust what the Ravens have, which is they still have a good offense. They just are missing the quarterback. The biggest weakness, too, is obviously the middle of the offensive line. Jurgens has come in there and has helped stabilize a little bit of the center position. But overall, that interior line is pretty terrible for the Ravens this year. It's not like the Chargers can take advantage of that. They don't have the big boys up front. So yeah, I, I, another line that's like, I think the books opened it too short and they're getting punished for it. And even if Herbert comes back now, does this ever get back to three, three and a half? I'd be surprised. Cause they've just been so bad misreading this Chargers team. The shops have just been getting absolutely crushed every week on it. So yeah, like you said, we, we know we're trying to catch the falling knife here and I'm fully aware and accepting that. Like it's just, If it's still below six, I'll still bet it here. But if you already got the three and a half, you don't need to do anything. You got the best number. You can be patient. 01:02:30 Speaker 1: I think we got a nice roster of games to talk about after the trade deadline, which I think will also, if there's any more moves, we'll have an impact. Simon says is going to be Dallas plus four and a half trading at 53% at Polymarket. Chad's choice. Make no mistake about it. It's going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half. This has been Sharper Square. Part of the volume. podcast network we will be back on thursday with the games we are zeroing in on plus our survivor pick our head-to-head battle brass ball so much more watch or listen on youtube at sharper square like this video subscribe to the channel download us from spotify apple pods wherever you get your pods rate review subscribe leave us five stars say whatever you want until. 01:03:10 Speaker 2: Thursday love you I don't know if that's where you put it I've never smoked anything in my life I can tell