Pełna transkrypcja odcinka Here's Why Gerrymandering Failed in the US Midterms

00:00:02 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. 00:00:05 Speaker 2: Radio. News. I'm Stephen Carroll and this is Here's Why, where we take one news story and explain it in just a few minutes with our experts here at Bloomberg. 00:00:19 Speaker 3: In many cases, the Republicans' attempt to redistrict has backfired. 00:00:24 Speaker 1: A gerrymander, we understand what that is. A dummymander is the party punching themselves in the face. Republicans sowed the seeds of their own demise in Texas. They started this redistricting war. And some of the efforts to gerrymander districts that are just clearly backfiring against Republicans all night. This is a bloodbath of a night. There's no getting around it. 00:00:43 Speaker 2: The battle lines for this year's midterms were drawn long in advance of polling day. For more than a year, Republicans in states from Florida to Texas were moving the boundaries of congressional districts with the goal of bolstering the party's support. Democrats in California also adopted a more partisan electoral map. 00:01:02 Speaker 1: But amidst the blue wave, the Republican efforts largely failed to deliver. 00:01:07 Speaker 2: Democrats won several of the districts that Republicans had redrawn to keep them out. 00:01:12 Speaker 1: Here's why gerrymandering failed. 00:01:14 Speaker 2: In the US midterms. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mary Ellen Klass joins us now for more. Mary Ellen, redrawing electoral districts is a fraught process in many parts of the world, but what's the history of it in the US? 00:01:28 Speaker 3: Well, it is based on the idea that every voter gets one vote and representation is based on fair and equal distribution of votes. So every 10 years in the United States, individual states are required to redistribute their votes based on the census numbers and equalize representation. The way we got to where we are now with partisan infighting and manipulation of maps is that parties have figured out ways to use both data and technology to draw districts in a way that pack voters of their party into districts and crack apart communities that have many people that don't vote for them. And they try to tip the scales by drawing these districts very unfairly so that they have the advantage. 00:02:17 Speaker 2: So to what extent did that happen in the run-up to the midterms? How many districts could we say were gerrymandered? 00:02:24 Speaker 3: Well, the race to redistrict all began when President Trump pressured states to redistrict in the middle of a decade. This has really never happened before. Usually it's just every 10 years, but he realized that the midterms were not going to be favorable for him, and he wanted to protect his majority in the House. So eight Republican-led states agreed to help him out, and then California and Virginia decided they were going to try and redistrict to counter the efforts of those states. In the end, there were about 15 districts that wouldn't have been leaning Republican before the midterms, and four in California. 00:03:09 Speaker 2: But the results didn't exactly go as the parties had planned. What went wrong with the Republican strategy in particular? 00:03:16 Speaker 3: Yes, the results didn't go well. And part of it began with the idea that when Republicans went searching for voters, they used data that showed people that might have voted for the president in the 2024 elections. But since the 24 election, as you know, voters have abandoned the president in droves. His approval rating has dropped to less than 30%. Voters are angry and frustrated with Republicans that have been compliant and allowed much of his agenda and not been a check on him. So they voted with Democrats. And in all but probably two of the Republican districts, They failed. They were unable to turn it around. And the onslaught was so dramatic that, as you know, we have now turned both the House and the Senate in Congress Democrat dominated. 00:04:15 Speaker 2: It felt like so much of the conversation running up to the midterms was on issues like affordability. How much was this redistricting actually discussed in the run up to the elections? How big an issue was it for voters? 00:04:27 Speaker 3: You know, when it first began in the summer of 2025, there was a lot of attention paid to it. And polls showed that about three in four voters were not happy with this push to redistrict the states. And they opposed gerrymandering, you know, for partisan advantage generally. But I don't think that this became a priority issue for many voters. I think it just kind of added to the mix of issues that influenced their displeasure with the status quo and Republicans, because I think that they realized that they were trying to rig the game for their advantage. And that just kind of fed into the displeasure with the economy, the frustration over the president's corruption, the idea that there is that he wasn't following through on his promises. 00:05:18 Speaker 2: Will the parties have learned lessons from this experience? Is there going to be less of a desire to try and carry out this sort of redistricting in the future? 00:05:27 Speaker 3: You know, that's a good question. I think the parties should have learned that these efforts to flip districts have flopped. The public doesn't like gerrymandering. It leads to bad government. But the unfortunate thing is, I don't think it will end. It's because parties think it's easier for them to choose their voters than to have to choose their representatives. Now, we may see more mid-decade redistricting before the 2028 presidential elections. It's very possible that both parties try to manipulate the advantage. It's possible that Democrats try to reverse what Republicans have done and those in Republican states tried to capitalize on their advantage. I hope it's not the case, but there is legislation in Congress that began when Democrats had a majority in the House and that they could ban this. We'll see if that happens. 00:06:22 Speaker 2: Where is the conversation now on this activity of redistricting or gerrymandering? Is there going to be a renewed push then to try and perhaps clamp down on it, given the potential damage it can cause? 00:06:36 Speaker 3: You know, I hope that is part of the discussion. I think we are in a unique time where reform is going to be a debate. There's going to be a debate about how to make government better and how to establish more guardrails when we have an out of control executive. Gerrymandering districts to make them safe for either Democrats or Republicans end up in electing people who favor hyper-partisan candidates, They appeal to party extreme. That leads to candidates who don't want to compromise. It leads to gridlock. And it also results in getting less done. So I think that as part of a reform framework, I think redistricting will be part of the agenda. We do need redistricting reform in this country. I hope that it happens. And we at Bloomberg will continue to be writing about the implications of it. 00:07:33 Speaker 2: And we'll be watching it closely as well. Mary Ellen Klass, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, thank you very much. And you can read Mary Ellen's latest writing at Bloomberg.com forward slash opinion. For more explanations like this from our team of 3000 journalists and analysts around the world, go to Bloomberg.com slash explainers. 00:07:51 Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll. This is Here's Why. I'll be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.