TRANSKRYPCJA 🔗
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Hi, everybody. It's me, Cinderella X. You are listening to
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the Fringe Radio Network. I know I was going to
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tell them. Hey, do you have the app? It's the
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best way to listen to the Fringe Radio Network. It's safe,
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and you don't.
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Have to log in to use it, and it doesn't
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track you or trace you, and it sounds beautiful.
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I know I was going to tell them. How do
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you get the app? Just go to Fringeraidionetwork.com, right at
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the top of the page. I know, Slippers, we gotta
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keep cleaning these chimneys.
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Welcome to the God's Eye View podcast. I'm not sure
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what happened with the intro music there. But hey, that's
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par for the course around here. Anyway, welcome to the show.
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Exciting show today. I think we've got a couple of
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cool clips. We're going to be listening to an interview
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with Martin Shkreli, Pharma Bro. I know it sounds a
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little off topic for the show, but he's talking about
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some things that we kind of get into. So we'll
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listen to him. Also, a new out-of-body experience study was
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just published. I've skimmed it. I haven't read it in
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any great detail, but I think I get the gist.
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So we'll talk about that as well. But first, hope
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you guys are having a great Sunday out there. I am.
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I'm having just a good Sunday like this. I'm having
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a very human experience today. Normally, I feel disconnected from humanity.
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I'm like, what am I? Am I from another planet?
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What am I? But today I'm feeling very, very humid.
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It's fall. Love fall. I know that's a very basic
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thing to say, but I, dude, come on. There's fall
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people and there's summer people. And I am a fall
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winter person. It's nice. It's not miserably hot. You can
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get things with pumpkin flavor in them and cinnamon and nutmeg.
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Come on. I'm man enough to admit that I don't mind.
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cinnamon and something. Anyway, I made, I made, listen, listen
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to what a, what a domesticated person I am, man
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I am. I made a nice pot roast yesterday. Oh,
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it was good. I used a Dutch oven, browned the
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chuck roast, dude. Have you ever browned a chuck roast? Oh,
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did that, some bone broth, bunch of Random vegetables, because
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apparently you're obligated to do that for some reason, throw
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vegetables in there. And some mashed potatoes. Dude, mashed potatoes
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and gravy and chuck roast. Oh, rosemary. I threw a
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bay leaf in there. I don't really understand the purpose
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of a bay leaf, but I think it does something important. Anyway,
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that was great. Stayed up too late with my wife,
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acting like teenagers. paying for today. Everything hurts. I'm light sensitive,
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sound sensitive. So, uh, yeah, not, not as young as
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I once was, but had a nut dude sipping an
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espresso tonic right now, dude, just a great, just a
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great day hanging out with my kids. So I hope
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you are finding joy in the little things as well.
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Want to apologize for my extremely cynical and pretentious episode recently.
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I don't know. I don't know what I was going through,
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but yeah, I mean, I don't, not everybody knows random stuff.
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Is that a crime? You know, I think I felt
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so stupid after that episode. I think what I was
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trying to express is like, the world is very dark
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and scary and it's good and innocent people who are
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going to pay the price as they always do, you know?
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And it's frustrating, you know, that I can't, do anything
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about it, but who am I? And why should, why
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should I feel like I should be able to do
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anything about it? I don't know. But I think you,
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I think when you're confronted with like suffering and the
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potential for bad things to happen, there's a part of
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you that tends to want to blame the victim a
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little bit, you know, like you should have made better choices.
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Why aren't you smarter? Why, why aren't you prepared? Why
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aren't you hedging your bets? You know,
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but that's not really,
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that's not a good way to look at life. and
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to look at humanity. So anyway, so that, that phase
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is over. We'll, we'll forget that ever happened and we
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will move on to, I wouldn't jump right into the
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Martin Shkreli thing. Hold on one second. I need to
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ask my, I need to ask myself something. Sorry about that.
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I think, I think the first thing we need to
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talk about before we get into Martin Shkreli is the
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Tesla Roadster. What's going on with that? This has become
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a cultural touchstone. This is like, I was kind of
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shocked by, oh my gosh, people are calling me. This
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is very unprofessional, but you get what you pay for. Anyway,
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you're like required to have an opinion on this. First
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of all, it's like, why is this like such a,
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political and cultural issue you know there's like now factions
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arrayed around do you think the tesla roadster is cool
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or do you think it's horrible and dumb and terrible
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that the arguments as far as i can tell are
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i've seen this meme online it's like imagine being a
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liberal we're not getting political this is just i'm reporting
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something i've seen One side says, imagine being a liberal
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or no, I think he says, imagine being a socialist
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and trying to pretend like this isn't cool. And it
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shows the car flipping upside down. And yeah, I mean,
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that's a, that's a great argument because, because like objectively,
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like it's cool. Right. And then there's another side of
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the argument, which is, I don't know, like Elon sucks,
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screw him. But there is kind of like a middle ground,
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which I think is interesting. Now, normally I wouldn't even
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talk about this on the show, but it's like all
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anyone is talking about. So hold on one second. I'm sorry, guys.
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All right.
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Sorry about that. Man.
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Okay.
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This is the worst start to show ever. I'm sorry.
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So anyway. Okay. So there I saw a post and
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it show it's a company that makes drones and And
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they built a fake car around this massive like quadcopter
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kind of a thing. But they gave it like bicycle
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wheels instead of real tires, right? And they show it
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flying around. And they're like, see, it's not that hard.
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You know, the roadster is not that cool. And the
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comments were filled. This kind of goes back to my
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commentary on the last episode. The comments were filled with
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people who just obviously the joke went over their heads,
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you know, because they're like, that's not even a real car.
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It has bicycle wheels, you know? And it was like, yeah, bro, that's,
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that's the joke. That's what they're saying. Like this is
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the point they're making, which is like this, the stunt
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by the Tesla Roadster, like this is not a real car,
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you know? And I don't know, I don't know if
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that's true or not, but I have done, I should
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back up. Like, I think this stunt caught a lot
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of people off guard. off guard because it's like whoa
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where did this crazy thing come from it is objectively
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cool you know and uh but if you have been
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following the roadster saga like we've known that this was
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coming for a long time elon's been talking about using
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compressed air uh you know what's called cold gas thrusters
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because when when the air is just air although it
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might not be it might actually be nitrogen this is
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a controversy but um when it's released it's very cold
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And that's why you see what, you know, kind of
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looks like steam. It's actually like ice crystals, like, you know,
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what comes out of a jet engine at certain altitudes
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and humidities. So, um, anyway, so yeah, these are, these
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are cold gas thrusters, which you, you know, if you've
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watched rocket, uh, rocketry, you know, rocket landings by SpaceX, um,
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you see these cold gas thrusters that shoot pressurized, um,
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atmosphere or nitrogen to, to maneuver the rocket. There's no ignition,
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you know, there's no fuel. It's just air. Um, so
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we've kind of known this was coming, uh, and it
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comes on the heels of like many years of delays.
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People have sort of started mocking the roadster that calling
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it vaporware, you know, just a term that means like
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it's never going to happen. And so this event, I
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think a lot of, you know, the people who were
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in the know were like, see, You know, Elon's the
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man he's delivering. People had never heard of it. We're like,
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is this real? You know, is this AI? What is this?
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This is crazy. And then the haters, you know, hate it, obviously.
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So we've got fanboys, haters, and then most people are
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just like, whoa, it's cool. But if anyone is curious.
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you know, what's the reality of the situation is that
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that car you saw, not only is it probably not
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a real car, you know, it's probably not something you
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would ever be able to buy, even if you had
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the money, which, you know, I'm sure a few people will.
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And the company's basically said as much like that, that,
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that thing you saw, you know, the roadster goes in
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production allegedly in like two years, but not that, you know,
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what they will do. And here's the reason why not
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that the car is probably basically entirely a compressed air tank.
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It's called a CO it's a composite overwrapped pressurized vessel.
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And it's, you know, 10,000 to 15,000 PSI of air
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or nitrogen.
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We don't know.
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But, you know, air is mostly nitrogen. But it would
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take an entire Tesla battery, even the good one, to
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fill that up. And it would take like eight hours
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probably for about five seconds of thrust. And there'd be
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no passenger seat. They did a little sleight of hand
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where they opened the, they opened the door so you
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can see in the car and you can, you can
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tell there's a man, you know, a fake, a dummy
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sitting in the driver's seat, but you know, there's no
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back seats or passenger seat. It's just tank. It's just
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pressurized air tank. So yeah, which is, I mean, this
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is the reality of the situation. It was kind of
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a stunt, but you know, eventually perhaps in 2028, some,
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you know, rich people might be able to buy a
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version of the car that just has the the thrusters
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in the back so that you can do a really
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quick acceleration. And then it has a fan that sucks
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the air down to the ground, which that's really like
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the coolest advance. There's, there's a skirt around the underbody
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of the car that kind of comes down and, uh,
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gets pretty close to the ground. So it would have
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to be like on a flat, you know, a racetrack basically.
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And it pulls the, it doubles the weight of the car.
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without increasing its mass, you know, it pulls it down
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to the ground. And, uh, you know, this is something
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like F1 cars try to do with their, their, their,
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their spoilers or fins, whatever they try to create a
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lot of downforce so that you can corner really fast.
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So this will probably be one hell of a car, man.
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It will be probably set a lot of track records
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and stuff. It may even get close to competing with
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maybe even beating like some F1 track times, but perhaps.
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You know, it's unlikely, but you never know. But yeah,
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it is just funny to see people online. Like this
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is going to change the world. And it's like, no, bro,
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like this, this is not going to change anything. Like
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this is, this is not, first of all, you know,
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Elon was making claims in that presentation, which are aspirational,
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you know, like the company says that right now you
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have to get it filled and it takes like seven
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hours and you have to use specialized equipment. and that
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it's nitrogen. Um, but Elon was claiming like, yeah, that
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motor just recharges it. And maybe, maybe it will someday.
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And that'd be very cool. But even if so, it's
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probably not, it's not something that would happen while you're driving.
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Like you'd have to plug it in overnight and, uh,
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charge it up.
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And yeah.
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And then you basically have a bomb in your car.
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So it's not something that would ever be allowed on
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the road, but I, but now there's political statements like
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the Florida governor is saying, Oh, we're going to make
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it street legal. It should, It's just fun. It's a
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fun time to be alive. But people get super wrapped
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up into stuff. I'm hearing people have arguments about the
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Tesla Roadster. It's like, bro, I guess the marketing worked.
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We're all talking about it. Anyway, so curious what you
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guys think about that. You know, I will say for Elon,
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he is... he is kind of like the Barnum Bailey
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or you can, and this, he'd probably like this comparison better,
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like the Tesla of our time, because, you know, Tesla
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was known for these grand displays with electricity that just
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captivated the imagination, got him funding. And Elon's kind of
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that on steroids, you know, he's, he's really able to
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just like capture the public imagination and government contracts. Um,
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so yeah, Yeah. I don't know. But to turn this
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into like a, like a, like a, what's the word
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I'm looking for? Like a commentary on our time, you know,
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like people are really trying to make a lot out
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of this. Like, doesn't it just say everything you need
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to know about society that there's people who look at
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this card and have criticism. It is like, okay, yeah,
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I get what you're saying, but also like, bro, it's,
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it's just a, you know, it's just a cool stunt.
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Let's just enjoy it for what it is. You know,
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it's a, That's a fun thing. It's not a, it's
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not a treatise on our democracy, you know? So anyway,
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speaking of treatises on our democracy though, let's shift gears,
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talk about Martin Shkreli, and then we will get into
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the out-of-body experience stuff. So Martin Shkreli, for those who
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don't know, he's affectionately, non-affectionately referred to as the pharma bro.
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He was very popular for a little bit, not popular,
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but notorious for a bit because he bought a company
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or the rights to a drug and like thousand X
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to the price. And people are like, Oh, this is,
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this is what's wrong. I have a slightly different take
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on Martin. He's weird. You know, he's got some kind
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of personality disorder. He's, you know, objectively a douche bag,
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but he's just, He's just saying out loud what everyone
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else in the industry does. He's not any worse. I
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think his transparency actually makes him a little bit better
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because I think this kind of is a commentary on
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our system. He's just doing the stuff everybody does, but
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he's being transparent about it. And for that, he draws
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the ire of everyone. Everyone hates him. But it's like
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he's just doing the thing out loud. You don't get
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to hate him and not hate the broader commercial medical establishment.
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Not that it's all bad. There are certainly aspects of
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pharmaceuticals pharma development that I guess you could argue are
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quite good, you know, because they provide the infrastructure and
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the capital to bring these ideas to market sometimes. It
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doesn't happen that often, but anyway, he just did it
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out loud. He announced his moves. He announced his crimes
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and he went to jail. He went to jail for it.
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So let's, this is a long clip. I'll probably play
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half of it. maybe 10 minutes, interrupt it. This is
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the all in podcast. It's amazing what shows get popular.
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This is like one of the most popular podcasts in
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the world. It's just like three to five rich guys
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trying to look like very wise, you know, constantly interrupting
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the guests to ask him questions. You know, there's three
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question askers and one guest and they're just constantly interrupting him. So,
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but it's still, it's still an interesting, we get into AI,
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we get into quantum, we get into medicine. It's a
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lot of stuff we talk about.
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So let's listen.
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He's been called the most hated man in America because
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he jacked up the cost of a life-saving drug. Raised
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the price of a life-saving drug 5,000%.
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He became the poster child for capitalistic greed.
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Martin Shkreli, seven years in prison. We definitely plan on
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raising the price, that's for sure. You can be prosecuted
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for not maximizing profit. And you have to do everything
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in your power to make as much money as possible.
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And if I'm the enemy for you, good, I'm happy, man.
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I'm fulfilling some need in your life. Purchase the only
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copy of a legendary Wu-Tang Clan album with no immediate
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plans to play it. It's not a good record. Ego
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is the fountainhead of all progress.
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Please welcome Martin Shkreli.
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Welcome, Martin.
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Thanks for coming out.
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This is such like a Jordan Belfort moment. You know
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in Wolf of Wall Street when he gets out of
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prison and he's like, doing his like weekend course at a,
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at a Hilton, you know, lobby. And he's like, sell
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me this pen, you know? And it's just, it's the rot, the,
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the fall, the rise, the fall and the rise of these, uh,
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just twisted weirdos is so interesting. But he made a
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comment in that opening statement that I think is important
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for people to remember. Like he said, you can be
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prosecuted for not maximizing shareholder value. And it is, it's true.
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So the thing, the thing that he did wrong, as
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far as I can tell, I don't know that much
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about the story. So email me, godsideviewbook at gmail.com. Tell
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me what I'm missing, why I'm wrong. But you
know,
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maybe he took it too far, perhaps.
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I don't know.
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But what really the thing he did wrong is he
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announced it. He broadcast it. He made a show of it.
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If he would have just 5,000% X the profit, maybe
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it'd be wise to do it in stages, like over
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the course of five years, you know? Like it's not
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so much what he did objectively, it's how he did it.
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And that should like alarm you. That shouldn't make you go, oh,
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I really hate this Martin Shkreli guy. It should make
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you go like, Oh, this is what everybody's doing to
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me everywhere. Like I'm being ripped off and manipulated constantly.
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Not that you just want to walk around being angry
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and miserable, but I don't know.
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I don't know.
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I don't want to rehash last week. Let's just hit play.
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Nice to meet you.
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You wore Brad's outfit today. Exactly.
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All right.
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Welcome Martin.
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We've got so many topics to go into with you,
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but I want to start with one. You've, basically taken
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down quantum computing. You said you'd think that this is
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a fraud, that people might be going to jail. So
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two-part question.
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Number one, maybe you could.
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Give us your thesis on why this is a fraud
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or fugazi, a fugizi, whatever it is.
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Disgraciad.
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And a disgraciad.
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Great.
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Excellent. Excellent. Big, short reference.
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Disgraciad.
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And then two, your best advice is, for those CEOs
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when they do go to jail, you've got a little experience.
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Best advice in terms of, you don't seem to be
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the kind of guy who would thrive in prison, but from.
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What I understand, Martin, you basically- You're like a shock collar.
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Hold on.
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You turned into Lex Luthor and you were running the yard,
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I understand.
So, Break us through the quantum trade and
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best practices when you go to the WhoScout.
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Yes, I have to shout out my wife, Chelsea. So Chelsea,
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very few people know her, but she's, I think, a
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big deal in technology. She was one of the first
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people at OpenAI. And her father, believe it or not,
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was one of the first people at NVIDIA. In my family,
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I was one of the first people in prison.
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So....
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I thought I'd switch the gene pool, you know, shift
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it over a little bit. But Chelsea studied at MIT
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and taught quantum computing with Scott Aronson, the preeminent guy
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in quantum. And, you know, she got to teach me
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over many hours, you know, penetrated my thick head, you know,
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what exactly quantum computing even is. And I think a
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lot of people sort of synonymize it with faster computing,
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which sounds great. That's really not what it is at all.
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No.
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And I think the basic point of quantum computing is
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that there's one algorithm. In fact, the whole field was
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invented because of Peter Shor's thought experiment. Peter considered this
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idea that there are kinds of algorithms that you can
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run faster in different media. That was a revolutionary idea
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in computing. But it's not really a revolutionary idea for
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business because, and this is my thesis, of course, because
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there's one algorithm that runs faster in a quantum computer.
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And so if you ask somebody, which computer can sort
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a deck of cards? If anybody knows the famous algorithms book, CLRS,
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the first five pages are about sorting algorithms, like bubble
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sort and merge sort and things like that. And I
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asked quantum fans, well, which one can sort it faster?
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And they said, well, of course, the quantum computer. And
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I said, of course not. That's not the case. The
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modern quantum computers run at a clock speed of hundreds
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of hertz or thousands of hertz, not at the gigahertz
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that we're used to. They're single core, and they're single
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threaded when it comes to doing a job like a
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merge sort or something like that. So the only thing
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it's really good at, which indeed is a magic trick,
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is going from exponential time algorithm, which is integer factorization
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or elliptic curve discrete log problem, which I want to
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mention a little later, shout out to the ECDLP problem.
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The quantum computers can do those in polynomial time, which
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is remarkable. And to a nerd, that's the greatest, coolest
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magic trick ever. But to a business person, unless you
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were in the business of factoring numbers, there's not a
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whole lot to be excited about here. So the other
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algorithms that Quantum could do are not much faster. So
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they'll never beat an NVIDIA machine. They'll never beat a
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million NVIDIA machines. And Quantum doesn't have storage. There's no
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such thing as Quantum RAM. So you have to design
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a problem that has a really, really small input. You
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cannot put the world's compute into it. Every time somebody
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pitches OpenAI, from what I've heard, about quantum computer, they say, no,
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we're not interested.
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I think I'm closer to you in my perspectives on quantum,
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but let me take the other side. Let's just take
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the other side. The other side would say, look, we're
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in this very early primordial phase of actually constructing the transistor.
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And from the transistor, what we're going to do is
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put a bunch of these things together. We're going to
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figure out gates. We're going to figure out logic. We'll
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then be able to build some reasonable operating system on
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top of it. We'll have some reasonable, you know, like...
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mechanisms to write software to these things. And none of
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that really exists.
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So I recognize like, why are we even talking about
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quantum computing? It's kind of weird, but did this, although
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the quantum bubble is
not nearly the size of the
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AI bubble that we are economic bubble that we're currently
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living in, it is related and it is quite, quite large.
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And I think it sort of represents something. Like more
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than anything else, it's a symbol of, you know, the
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potential future of AI. You know, because as we kind
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of bump into sort of some real limitations with AI,
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people hear me say that and like, what are you
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talking about? It's so cool. I can ask it anything.
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I said, no, no, that's the point. I'm speaking of
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like economic limitations. Like it's incredibly expensive and these companies
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are losing a tremendous amount of money. And yes, I
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understand they're doing some creative accounting in the case of
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Anthropic to make it look like they're making a lot
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of money. They are not. And what they are making,
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the growth is now dwindling, right? So we're sort of
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at like a precipice. And even I would say we're
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also at a technological precipice. Like it's pretty cool. There
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are some big advances. They're mostly negative. for humanity, right?
441
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Like they're not, they're not curing disease or eliminating jobs,
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you know, they're not, uh, extending lifespan. They're learning how to, um,
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reverse engineer proprietary software, you know, so they might put
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software companies out of business, uh, and, and there'll be
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massive layoffs, you know, at Adobe or, you know, wherever.
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So yeah, they're doing things, but it's not like, does
447
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that judge, is this the most important thing in the world?
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Is this worth our sum, you know, attention and money?
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Like the fruit of our labors, does this justify it?
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And the answer I think is no. I think obviously
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it's no. But we don't want it to collapse. And
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so quantum sort of represents like maybe this is the
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next thing. We're always like maybe this. is what we
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need to achieve, you know, true, whatever, you know, whatever
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they think is the thing that's going to make it
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all okay and fix everything. Let's see what Martin has.
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Do you buy that?
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We're just at an early phase and this is why
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we're frustrated that there's a computational limitation except to a
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very narrow use case.
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Like, do you believe.
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I shouldn't mention there. It's not that there's a computational limitation. Martin,
463
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he's a weirdo and he, he uses a lot of jargon,
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but you know, the guy just basically just ignores what
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he says. You know, like he makes these pretty compelling
466
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points where like the technology itself is not suited to
467
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solving problems that are helpful to us, was his point.
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And there's no memory, which means that they have to
469
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be extremely like circumscribed. Is that the word? Circumscript? Circumscribed
470
00:27:41.359 --> 00:27:47.019
problems that are, you know, well-defined problems. And it might
471
00:27:47.099 --> 00:27:50.440
be able to add some value perhaps someday, you know?
472
00:27:51.099 --> 00:27:53.509
And he's like, well, the question is like, well, yeah,
473
00:27:53.529 --> 00:27:56.650
they're compute bound, but surely we'll get better at that.
474
00:27:56.670 --> 00:27:57.930
And it's like, no, that's not what he, that isn't
475
00:27:57.950 --> 00:28:00.579
what he said, you know? He said this is like
476
00:28:00.630 --> 00:28:02.740
a core limitation to the technology.
477
00:28:02.759 --> 00:28:03.720
That could be possible?
478
00:28:04.019 --> 00:28:06.059
Yeah, no, of course. I think the issue, though, is
479
00:28:06.099 --> 00:28:08.240
do you buy– would you go long punch cards and
480
00:28:08.259 --> 00:28:11.670
vacuum tubes, right? Mercury delay lines, core memory, these are
481
00:28:11.690 --> 00:28:14.589
all things that disappeared and went bankrupt. Those were stocks
482
00:28:14.650 --> 00:28:18.789
at one point. CTR, you know, computer tabulator machine, got
483
00:28:18.809 --> 00:28:19.779
incorporated into IBM.
484
00:28:19.849 --> 00:28:23.160
Okay, but your critique is– Is business model and timing
485
00:28:23.279 --> 00:28:24.299
or is it technological?
486
00:28:24.500 --> 00:28:26.579
I think it's both. You know, I think that when
487
00:28:26.599 --> 00:28:28.799
you talk to Google or IBM or Microsoft and ask them,
488
00:28:28.839 --> 00:28:30.200
why are you spending hundreds of millions of dollars a
489
00:28:30.200 --> 00:28:32.829
year on this? They say, well, someday there might be
490
00:28:32.869 --> 00:28:34.630
something that comes out of it. That's not a great
491
00:28:34.670 --> 00:28:35.210
business to me.
492
00:28:35.289 --> 00:28:37.009
Well, it is very shocking. I mean, you can probably
493
00:28:37.029 --> 00:28:39.430
tell the story, but how many machines actually, how many
494
00:28:39.470 --> 00:28:41.230
machines does IBM and Google actually have?
495
00:28:41.670 --> 00:28:44.390
Very few. So Google has a few prototypes. IBM has
496
00:28:44.410 --> 00:28:46.230
a little cloud. Chelsea and I have tried every single
497
00:28:46.269 --> 00:28:49.490
quantum computer in the world. We cannot multiply 300 by
498
00:28:49.490 --> 00:28:53.789
200 on any of these. And you're shorting them? Yeah,
499
00:28:53.809 --> 00:28:56.890
I've been short them. Unfortunately, we lost millions of dollars
500
00:28:57.309 --> 00:28:59.970
shorting quantum computing companies, but I told my wife that
501
00:28:59.990 --> 00:29:01.190
we gained billions in insight.
502
00:29:03.190 --> 00:29:03.369
Right.
503
00:29:04.670 --> 00:29:07.109
It's not easy to time the markets, yes.
504
00:29:08.779 --> 00:29:12.380
So where is the natural computational edge?
505
00:29:12.460 --> 00:29:14.940
I think I've said this before, but there's this famous
506
00:29:15.019 --> 00:29:19.019
scene in The Big Short with Christian Bale playing, what's
507
00:29:19.059 --> 00:29:25.529
his name? Michael Burry. Who continues to make the same
508
00:29:25.569 --> 00:29:30.059
mistake today. But he was one of the few people
509
00:29:30.099 --> 00:29:33.640
who saw way ahead of time that the market collapsed
510
00:29:33.700 --> 00:29:35.089
in 2008, 2007, 2008. He saw it way over the horizon.
511
00:29:35.109 --> 00:29:35.529
He had to go.
512
00:29:40.009 --> 00:29:44.410
Get Wall Street banks to invent financial instruments for him.
513
00:29:45.670 --> 00:29:48.339
And they sold them to him because they're like, there's
514
00:29:48.380 --> 00:29:50.480
no way the housing market's going to fail, you know, sure.
515
00:29:52.259 --> 00:29:54.519
But he was so confident that he, you know, he
516
00:29:54.539 --> 00:29:56.799
was willing to pay a lot of money for these,
517
00:29:56.940 --> 00:30:01.680
you know, options contracts or whatever they were. And he
518
00:30:02.099 --> 00:30:06.279
was way early. He was like clairvoyant, but he was
519
00:30:06.359 --> 00:30:09.359
way early. And so all the people in his fund
520
00:30:09.400 --> 00:30:13.579
that he managed were furious with him because he's paying
521
00:30:13.619 --> 00:30:17.460
money every month betting against the U.S. housing market, which
522
00:30:17.480 --> 00:30:20.579
of course seemed ridiculous at the time. And there's this
523
00:30:20.640 --> 00:30:25.009
famous scene where the guy's in there questioning him, like
524
00:30:25.049 --> 00:30:28.390
how could he do this? And he's learning the financial
525
00:30:28.410 --> 00:30:33.640
rules entanglement that Michael Burry has created for himself and
526
00:30:33.819 --> 00:30:36.640
how much money they're all going to lose if he's wrong.
527
00:30:36.680 --> 00:30:42.160
And Christian Bale, Michael Burry goes, I'm not wrong. I'm
528
00:30:42.200 --> 00:30:47.809
just early. And the famous line is in response, the
529
00:30:47.829 --> 00:30:52.410
guy says, it's the same thing. And it's true. Like
530
00:30:53.170 --> 00:30:56.529
in stock market investing, like being early and being wrong
531
00:30:56.569 --> 00:31:01.200
are identical. You lost all your money either way. And
532
00:31:01.279 --> 00:31:04.799
so this is kind of the point they're making with
533
00:31:04.839 --> 00:31:08.920
market timing. But I think he is right. Short of
534
00:31:08.980 --> 00:31:12.579
some major government intervention, all this stuff is going to
535
00:31:12.619 --> 00:31:18.140
just disappear overnight. And it will be mom and pop
536
00:31:18.180 --> 00:31:19.779
401ks that probably pay the biggest price.
537
00:31:20.440 --> 00:31:23.299
Some people would say it's going to be towards encryption
538
00:31:23.339 --> 00:31:25.720
and defeating encryption because now we can actually use what
539
00:31:25.740 --> 00:31:28.809
it's actually good at to essentially brute force solutions to
540
00:31:28.829 --> 00:31:30.069
things that we can't solve today.
541
00:31:30.549 --> 00:31:32.470
I think it's crazy to even think about it because
542
00:31:32.950 --> 00:31:34.990
we have a computational problem that we're trying to solve.
543
00:31:35.490 --> 00:31:38.329
And every time somebody uses the word AI, I actually
544
00:31:38.369 --> 00:31:41.950
think of the word Matmul. These are Matmul machines. And
545
00:31:41.970 --> 00:31:43.869
I think that as we.
546
00:31:43.990 --> 00:31:45.890
Matrix multiplication is what he's referring to.
547
00:31:45.930 --> 00:31:47.750
Right. So multiplying two lists of numbers is what a
548
00:31:47.809 --> 00:31:49.349
GPU spends 99.9% of its time doing.
549
00:31:49.369 --> 00:31:49.490
Sure.
550
00:31:50.920 --> 00:31:53.079
But it does it in n-cubed time. Now what's funny,
551
00:31:53.299 --> 00:31:56.039
I think things like complexity algorithms are going to be
552
00:31:56.079 --> 00:31:59.069
parlance in the next five to ten years as we
553
00:32:00.609 --> 00:32:03.329
move towards a society. So n-cubed means if you want
554
00:32:03.349 --> 00:32:06.809
to multiply a thousand element square matrix versus another thousand
555
00:32:06.829 --> 00:32:08.710
element square matrix on an NVIDIA machine, it takes a
556
00:32:08.730 --> 00:32:11.890
billion operations. That's a lot of operations. As we learned
557
00:32:11.910 --> 00:32:15.880
about this computing stuff through my lovely wife, I was
558
00:32:15.900 --> 00:32:17.720
flipping through nature, which is what we do as a hobby,
559
00:32:18.000 --> 00:32:22.269
and I saw a paper from Microsoft that was called AOC,
560
00:32:22.670 --> 00:32:25.470
analog optical computing. In New York, that means something different,
561
00:32:25.589 --> 00:32:29.190
but AOC in this case is. And what I saw
562
00:32:29.210 --> 00:32:31.400
in the corner of my eye was that matte moles
563
00:32:31.559 --> 00:32:35.220
in light are free. They happen in instant time, which
564
00:32:35.279 --> 00:32:37.599
is a really remarkable thing. So we're investigating, maybe we'll
565
00:32:37.619 --> 00:32:40.700
start a company or something like that, but there's a
566
00:32:40.700 --> 00:32:44.740
couple of startups like Neurofoss, OptiCore, Lumai that want to
567
00:32:44.759 --> 00:32:47.640
make these photonic matte mole cores, which would run circles
568
00:32:47.680 --> 00:32:51.619
around what NVIDIA does. Of course, that's not the whole story.
569
00:32:51.660 --> 00:32:54.609
There's a lot of details and non-linearity and storage.
570
00:32:55.049 --> 00:32:59.589
Beyond the hatred for quantum and your raging short that
571
00:32:59.630 --> 00:33:02.089
may or may not be winning, you were a hedge
572
00:33:02.109 --> 00:33:06.319
fund manager, correct? And the famous episode, just to catch
573
00:33:06.359 --> 00:33:10.640
everybody up, was you bought a drug and then you
574
00:33:10.960 --> 00:33:13.480
inflated the price of the drug. Is that what happened?
575
00:33:13.500 --> 00:33:16.220
Can you just give us the history and what takes
576
00:33:16.240 --> 00:33:16.500
you now to.
577
00:33:18.990 --> 00:33:21.599
Yeah, I started at 16 at Jim Cramer's hedge fund.
578
00:33:22.059 --> 00:33:26.240
Cramer was actually a tremendously effective and skilled trader. But
579
00:33:26.839 --> 00:33:29.339
Cramer's idea of investing was to, you know, buy and
580
00:33:29.380 --> 00:33:32.900
sell all day, every day, everything. And he somehow squeezed
581
00:33:32.940 --> 00:33:34.630
profits out of it. That was the way you do
582
00:33:34.670 --> 00:33:35.829
it sort of in the 80s and 90s.
583
00:33:36.670 --> 00:33:39.569
For people who don't know, Jim Cramer's like the famous,
584
00:33:39.950 --> 00:33:41.849
he's got a show on CNBC and he has all
585
00:33:41.869 --> 00:33:45.259
the like sound effects and He's always yelling and screaming.
586
00:33:45.319 --> 00:33:48.579
And he's always like in every movie about the stock market,
587
00:33:48.640 --> 00:33:52.269
he has like a cameo of his show. And the
588
00:33:52.309 --> 00:33:54.549
joke about Jim Cramer is that the best thing you
589
00:33:54.589 --> 00:33:58.650
can do is just bet against him. There's even funds
590
00:33:58.769 --> 00:34:01.750
called inverse Cramer funds. So like if he recommends that
591
00:34:01.769 --> 00:34:04.670
you buy a stock, the fund sells it. And if
592
00:34:04.710 --> 00:34:07.109
he recommends that you sell a stock, the fund buys it.
593
00:34:07.839 --> 00:34:09.340
And it's like one of the best ways to make
594
00:34:09.400 --> 00:34:12.920
money is to just bet against Jim Cramer. So that's
595
00:34:12.940 --> 00:34:14.719
why he said he was actually really good at once.
596
00:34:14.880 --> 00:34:17.440
And he actually made 23% a year net of fees.
597
00:34:17.699 --> 00:34:19.239
And so you worked for him as a 16-year-old?
598
00:34:19.280 --> 00:34:20.449
I worked for him at 16.
599
00:34:20.429 --> 00:34:21.250
How did you get that job?
600
00:34:21.710 --> 00:34:24.030
Just being in Manhattan, having a big mouth, and, you know,
601
00:34:24.090 --> 00:34:28.329
it's a great city. And loving stocks, loving investing. Bill
602
00:34:28.349 --> 00:34:31.409
Gates was my hero. And I found a way to,
603
00:34:31.760 --> 00:34:34.219
you know, get into that. And Kramer one day pointed
604
00:34:34.239 --> 00:34:35.880
at me and said, genomics, you're going to look at genomics.
605
00:34:36.500 --> 00:34:38.960
And I said, okay. And it was a lot of fun.
606
00:34:39.000 --> 00:34:41.119
And I went to a tiger cub. I started my
607
00:34:41.139 --> 00:34:43.340
own fund. I realized I was a much better entrepreneur
608
00:34:43.619 --> 00:34:45.610
and private equity guy than a trader. We found that
609
00:34:45.650 --> 00:34:49.289
the marketplace for molecules had huge amounts of alpha, whereas
610
00:34:49.309 --> 00:34:52.110
the marketplace of public companies, we could buy a drug from,
611
00:34:52.269 --> 00:34:53.949
I bought a drug from Bristol Myers for 2 million.
612
00:34:54.800 --> 00:34:57.579
And that same company is public today. It's worth 6 billion.
613
00:34:58.139 --> 00:35:01.719
So that was my first startup. And, um, It was
614
00:35:01.760 --> 00:35:04.400
a really inefficient market. Pfizer would sell you a drug
615
00:35:04.440 --> 00:35:06.179
for a million bucks that was worth a billion dollars.
616
00:35:06.199 --> 00:35:08.559
They didn't care. Sell you the rights to the drugs.
617
00:35:08.579 --> 00:35:10.420
You could productize it, price it. Yeah, absolutely.
618
00:35:10.440 --> 00:35:12.300
Sorry, what do you mean? You just knock on Pfizer's
619
00:35:12.340 --> 00:35:14.420
door and they're like, take what you'd like for a
620
00:35:14.440 --> 00:35:15.000
million dollars.
621
00:35:15.039 --> 00:35:17.099
We saw this and we built two very similar companies
622
00:35:17.179 --> 00:35:24.059
that our biggest constraint was finding people to vet these assets.
623
00:35:24.079 --> 00:35:24.280
Clinically.
624
00:35:27.139 --> 00:35:31.409
Yeah, just reading papers, reading patents, going to universities and
625
00:35:31.449 --> 00:35:34.329
small drug companies and big drug companies, making relationships. It's
626
00:35:34.349 --> 00:35:37.829
called business development in our field. And our biggest bandwidth
627
00:35:37.929 --> 00:35:40.889
problem was reading these papers. So I started a small
628
00:35:40.949 --> 00:35:43.489
NLP company on the side in 2015. We had Watson.
629
00:35:43.659 --> 00:35:47.880
It was great. It wasn't great. We tried to read
630
00:35:47.940 --> 00:35:50.619
every paper that was published in medicine. It was 40
631
00:35:50.619 --> 00:35:53.619
million papers. And having humans do that is a really
632
00:35:53.639 --> 00:35:54.099
tough thing.
633
00:35:54.199 --> 00:35:56.570
How do you take a molecule and flip it from
634
00:35:56.570 --> 00:35:58.570
25 million to six, but what are you doing in
635
00:35:58.610 --> 00:36:00.199
that six or nine months that you own it?
636
00:36:00.480 --> 00:36:03.280
I think, so what I did with sparsantan, a drug
637
00:36:03.320 --> 00:36:05.539
that I named and is now FDA approved, now a
638
00:36:05.539 --> 00:36:09.980
blockbuster drug, is Bristol discovered and developed it for hypertension,
639
00:36:10.000 --> 00:36:13.239
which is sort of a dead, sleepy market that nobody
640
00:36:13.260 --> 00:36:13.639
really needs.
641
00:36:13.659 --> 00:36:14.760
Hypertension, high blood pressure.
642
00:36:15.489 --> 00:36:18.949
And so we moved into a disease called FSGS, which
643
00:36:19.170 --> 00:36:21.170
is a disease that never has had a drug approved
644
00:36:21.190 --> 00:36:23.130
for it. So you sort of try to angle it
645
00:36:23.170 --> 00:36:24.170
in a way that makes sense.
646
00:36:24.530 --> 00:36:27.920
And in I don't know if this is, I understand
647
00:36:27.940 --> 00:36:29.639
this is kind of off topic for a show, but
648
00:36:30.139 --> 00:36:34.340
I just think it's so interesting the way, I don't
649
00:36:34.389 --> 00:36:37.369
think people realize the way drug development works. You know,
650
00:36:37.409 --> 00:36:39.449
I think people have this image of like a room
651
00:36:39.510 --> 00:36:44.849
filled of expert physicians talking about, you know, the next
652
00:36:44.909 --> 00:36:48.150
drug or how this drug can be used or designing
653
00:36:48.210 --> 00:36:52.070
the next drug. And it's like, no, I mean, there's an, there's,
654
00:36:52.230 --> 00:36:56.559
that does happen sometimes, you know? I've been involved with, uh,
655
00:36:56.820 --> 00:37:00.880
with like, uh, a couple of different peptides and small
656
00:37:00.920 --> 00:37:06.639
molecules that people have been working on, but it's, um, no, it's, it's,
657
00:37:06.840 --> 00:37:10.610
it's about, it's about margin. You know, it's like, okay, Hey,
658
00:37:10.849 --> 00:37:14.309
I can buy the rights to this drug cheap and
659
00:37:14.329 --> 00:37:17.210
then build a team that is going to prove that
660
00:37:17.250 --> 00:37:19.469
it can be used for something else. But it's not
661
00:37:19.510 --> 00:37:22.070
like you find the drug determined as good at something else.
662
00:37:22.250 --> 00:37:22.710
You know what I mean?
663
00:37:22.730 --> 00:37:25.389
Like, so yeah, so he's been, listen to the words
664
00:37:25.429 --> 00:37:27.289
he's using. Like, yeah, so we got this drug and
665
00:37:27.329 --> 00:37:31.869
we moved into a new disease. Now, this is a,
666
00:37:32.969 --> 00:37:36.369
these are economic, this is economic vocabulary. Like when he
667
00:37:36.409 --> 00:37:41.420
says we moved into a new disease, he means a
668
00:37:41.449 --> 00:37:45.909
new market. You know, like we found this under, you know, mispriced,
669
00:37:46.539 --> 00:37:50.340
undervalued opportunity. We picked it up and we moved into
670
00:37:50.380 --> 00:37:52.880
a new market. It's the way you would talk about
671
00:37:52.920 --> 00:37:57.510
like you know, any other economic idea. And it's just,
672
00:37:58.710 --> 00:38:06.909
it is like, it's wild. You know, American healthcare is insane.
673
00:38:07.769 --> 00:38:10.230
It is, I guess it's not terribly surprising that our
674
00:38:10.269 --> 00:38:14.159
life expectancy is going down even as our, you know,
675
00:38:15.440 --> 00:38:18.760
medicine improves, but it's just, it's weird. It's a weird
676
00:38:20.860 --> 00:38:23.659
You know, I think it's probably naive to expect it
677
00:38:23.699 --> 00:38:25.900
to be any different. You know, this is just the
678
00:38:25.940 --> 00:38:26.320
way of the world.
679
00:38:26.340 --> 00:38:28.739
In that case, the drug got FDA approved. 30,000 people
680
00:38:28.760 --> 00:38:32.039
who have focal segmental glomerulosclerosis never had a drug before
681
00:38:32.059 --> 00:38:33.960
now have a drug. I can be a good guy, too.
682
00:38:34.739 --> 00:38:37.880
And I think the, you know, that was, you know,
683
00:38:37.900 --> 00:38:40.239
it's the art of that field. It's a great way
684
00:38:40.260 --> 00:38:41.039
to make a billion dollars.
685
00:38:41.320 --> 00:38:43.340
Is this what Royalty Pharma does?
686
00:38:43.610 --> 00:38:43.909
Roy Vant.
687
00:38:44.789 --> 00:38:46.989
But is this also what Royalty Pharma does? They'll come in?
688
00:38:47.010 --> 00:38:49.780
Yeah, Royalty's a bit of a different player. Genius guys, obviously.
689
00:38:49.840 --> 00:38:52.039
Their big claim to fame was they went to NYU,
690
00:38:52.059 --> 00:38:55.519
but was getting this big royalty from Remicade, and they
691
00:38:55.559 --> 00:38:57.880
bought it for like one times earnings. And then that
692
00:38:57.920 --> 00:38:58.960
royalty 20x' d.
693
00:38:58.880 --> 00:39:00.920
They buy the cash flows at a bigger discount than
694
00:39:01.199 --> 00:39:01.920
how they're being priced.
695
00:39:01.940 --> 00:39:03.099
Brad, I know you want to get in here, so
696
00:39:03.119 --> 00:39:03.500
jump in here.
697
00:39:03.519 --> 00:39:07.710
Martin, take this framework now. You know kind of the
698
00:39:07.750 --> 00:39:10.909
big levers in the market today, right? What's expected in
699
00:39:10.949 --> 00:39:13.550
terms of compute? What's expected in terms of this CapEx
700
00:39:13.610 --> 00:39:16.599
build out? Are you spending much time looking at that
701
00:39:16.659 --> 00:39:18.400
and do you see any boogeymen there?
702
00:39:18.460 --> 00:39:19.400
What are you worried about?
703
00:39:19.739 --> 00:39:21.530
What would you be shorting? What would you be long
704
00:39:21.570 --> 00:39:24.329
in that complex? Yeah, I mentioned photonic computing before because
705
00:39:24.369 --> 00:39:27.250
I do think in 20 years these H100s are in
706
00:39:27.269 --> 00:39:29.309
the scrap heap. B100s are in the scrap heap. B200s
707
00:39:29.320 --> 00:39:31.900
are in the scrap heap. We're going to find ways
708
00:39:31.940 --> 00:39:33.840
to do this better. I think it's insane that we're
709
00:39:33.860 --> 00:39:35.920
thinking about space. I think it's insane we're thinking about nuclear.
710
00:39:36.380 --> 00:39:39.550
Sam Altman finally said publicly that he thinks photonic computing
711
00:39:39.869 --> 00:39:40.550
is unarrival.
712
00:39:40.570 --> 00:39:43.769
I should just mention, you know, V100, B200, these are
713
00:39:43.789 --> 00:39:45.849
GPUs used in data centers.
714
00:39:45.869 --> 00:39:46.309
Podcast.
715
00:39:47.329 --> 00:39:51.059
That photonic computing could be the future. So I'm just
716
00:39:51.119 --> 00:39:53.559
wondering why we think this is a sane idea to
717
00:39:53.619 --> 00:39:55.440
cover the earth with computers when we can make a
718
00:39:55.460 --> 00:39:57.800
faster one. I think that that doesn't mean NVIDIA is
719
00:39:57.840 --> 00:39:59.889
not a long and a long semis right now. I
720
00:40:01.130 --> 00:40:04.409
think Jevin always wins in the end. Everyone Jevin's paradoxes.
721
00:40:04.690 --> 00:40:07.150
You know, I realize this isn't a finance show. So
722
00:40:07.170 --> 00:40:09.610
I'll just say, you know, long means you're invested. You know,
723
00:40:09.639 --> 00:40:10.900
you're expecting the price.
724
00:40:10.679 --> 00:40:13.179
To go up the crap out of everything. Alex Wank,
725
00:40:13.670 --> 00:40:15.869
told me Jevin's going to take care of all this.
726
00:40:15.889 --> 00:40:18.489
It'll be a million X compute improvement. There are guys
727
00:40:18.530 --> 00:40:20.989
in the Valley talking about better transformers that are a
728
00:40:20.989 --> 00:40:25.630
thousand times better. If there's a thousand times more efficient transformer,
729
00:40:25.789 --> 00:40:28.949
that's bad for NVIDIA. There's no doubt about that. So
730
00:40:28.969 --> 00:40:31.500
we're not going to have a million X demand. Now
731
00:40:31.739 --> 00:40:35.380
we might in another way, but there aren't a million
732
00:40:35.460 --> 00:40:37.420
X more people. Whether we have a million X more
733
00:40:37.440 --> 00:40:40.360
compute needs, we'll have to see. For now, I think
734
00:40:40.420 --> 00:40:43.380
there's You know, my guess, like anybody else's, is long,
735
00:40:43.400 --> 00:40:45.820
but I probably would have guessed in 2000 that Yahoo
736
00:40:45.860 --> 00:40:48.929
and Cisco were longs too. So it's a tricky place.
737
00:40:48.949 --> 00:40:50.650
So how do you manage? Do you run a hedge
738
00:40:50.690 --> 00:40:51.090
fund still?
739
00:40:51.110 --> 00:40:51.389
I don't.
740
00:40:51.510 --> 00:40:51.750
Okay.
741
00:40:52.070 --> 00:40:54.170
So you're managing your own money. And when you think
742
00:40:54.210 --> 00:40:56.949
about portfolio allocation, are you thinking about it in the
743
00:40:56.989 --> 00:40:59.090
way you did when you ran your fund? Are you
744
00:40:59.130 --> 00:41:03.460
looking for specific high alpha events or startup or disruption
745
00:41:03.820 --> 00:41:06.579
and really going long behind those and not really thinking
746
00:41:06.599 --> 00:41:07.820
about competing with the market?
747
00:41:08.139 --> 00:41:11.159
Yeah, I'm sort of nimble. I mean, I think this
748
00:41:11.500 --> 00:41:13.760
Dario trade was like a great reason to go long.
749
00:41:14.219 --> 00:41:17.119
So I sort of piled in, you know, onto the sphere.
750
00:41:17.619 --> 00:41:21.010
Meaning the sell-off yesterday was sort of like just a
751
00:41:21.030 --> 00:41:21.269
head figure?
752
00:41:21.289 --> 00:41:22.489
Yeah, I think it was ridiculous, yeah.
753
00:41:22.590 --> 00:41:23.690
What did you think about his essay?
754
00:41:24.489 --> 00:41:25.449
I think that.
755
00:41:26.269 --> 00:41:31.920
A little context. So Dario is CEO of Anthropic, and
756
00:41:32.019 --> 00:41:35.420
he's doing the same thing. bullshit that everybody's doing saying
757
00:41:35.440 --> 00:41:38.840
like we need to pause we need regulate us harder
758
00:41:38.900 --> 00:41:44.250
daddy to the government you know because I mean my
759
00:41:44.289 --> 00:41:46.210
assumption is that they're trying to make it so there
760
00:41:46.289 --> 00:41:49.349
are no more competitors you know because open source competition
761
00:41:49.369 --> 00:41:52.949
will ruin them but you know the premise of his
762
00:41:53.130 --> 00:41:57.110
essay that he wrote was that basically like Claude might
763
00:41:57.150 --> 00:42:02.940
be conscious you know and so we should not We
764
00:42:02.960 --> 00:42:07.579
should pause development or whatever. And it's just the dumbest
765
00:42:07.599 --> 00:42:11.139
thing ever. It's like, okay, go ahead, pause. But their
766
00:42:11.159 --> 00:42:13.039
point is like, well, if we pause, no one else
767
00:42:13.099 --> 00:42:14.590
is going to pause and we're going to be behind.
768
00:42:14.610 --> 00:42:21.389
So the government should force us to pause, all of us. Anyway.
769
00:42:22.670 --> 00:42:25.510
I want to pay deference to him creating a trillion-dollar company,
770
00:42:25.530 --> 00:42:27.119
but I kind of hate the guy. And I think
771
00:42:27.159 --> 00:42:28.840
that he– it's not easy.
772
00:42:28.780 --> 00:42:30.119
To make a trillion-dollar company. Why do you hate him?
773
00:42:31.099 --> 00:42:33.030
I think he's a fear monger. I mean, I also
774
00:42:33.070 --> 00:42:35.610
think that he, you know, imagine you and I started
775
00:42:35.630 --> 00:42:37.969
a business and I said, I'm going to show you
776
00:42:37.989 --> 00:42:40.469
Pandora's box. Here it is. And you say, wow, that's amazing.
777
00:42:40.510 --> 00:42:42.409
And he said, thanks a lot, Martin. I'm going down
778
00:42:42.429 --> 00:42:44.760
the street. I'm going to start Pandora's box too. What
779
00:42:45.070 -->
00:42:47.420
are you doing? You know, it would, I would probably
780
00:42:47.460 --> 00:42:49.719
sue you for trade secrets or something. This is exactly
781
00:42:49.739 --> 00:42:50.139
what happened.
782
00:42:50.159 --> 00:42:54.820
So you're saying because he was at OpenAI and then
783
00:42:55.059 --> 00:42:59.469
he and his five or six co-founders leave, you're saying that.
784
00:42:59.869 --> 00:43:01.840
Like, Would you be, would you be friends with that guy?
785
00:43:02.739 --> 00:43:03.219
Would you like that?
786
00:43:03.440 --> 00:43:05.159
Well, I mean, I think the thing with Silicon Valley
787
00:43:05.199 --> 00:43:08.800
is that it kind of happens a lot. Um, and
788
00:43:09.460 --> 00:43:11.400
you know, it's, it's sort of hard to pinpoint what
789
00:43:11.469 --> 00:43:14.369
is a patent versus what is, you know, retained knowledge.
790
00:43:15.070 --> 00:43:17.230
I'm not excusing it or I'm not saying I know
791
00:43:17.389 --> 00:43:18.250
anything that happened, but.
792
00:43:18.869 --> 00:43:20.230
Um, the way my guy went to jail for it.
793
00:43:21.409 --> 00:43:24.340
Well, I think that that was because he was found
794
00:43:24.380 --> 00:43:29.489
to have actually stolen physical documents that were, um, Okay,
795
00:43:29.510 --> 00:43:32.510
so you have an issue with sort of the origin
796
00:43:32.550 --> 00:43:33.369
story of the problem.
797
00:43:33.389 --> 00:43:36.550
The fear-mongering, the ridiculous, you know, hyperbole. Right. You know,
798
00:43:36.570 --> 00:43:38.750
he says the AI is going to help drug development. Well,
799
00:43:38.929 --> 00:43:42.679
let me ask you more. What about effective altruism? Yeah,
800
00:43:42.820 --> 00:43:43.280
even worse.
801
00:43:44.400 --> 00:43:45.900
I remember now. This is why I wanted to play
802
00:43:45.940 --> 00:43:48.199
the clip. I could have skipped 20 minutes. I'm sorry.
803
00:43:49.699 --> 00:43:52.519
So yeah, so he barely heard it, but he slipped
804
00:43:52.559 --> 00:43:55.760
a comment in there about how Dario and any others
805
00:43:55.889 --> 00:43:57.780
are saying like AI is going to help with the
806
00:43:57.800 --> 00:43:59.869
drug development. But it's totally asinine.
807
00:43:59.929 --> 00:44:00.389
No, it isn't.
808
00:44:01.130 --> 00:44:03.289
No, it isn't. It hasn't.
809
00:44:03.489 --> 00:44:03.889
It won't.
810
00:44:04.329 --> 00:44:06.909
I'm not saying you can't find a paper. Like here's
811
00:44:06.929 --> 00:44:09.750
the thing. There is a big difference between like a
812
00:44:09.889 --> 00:44:14.690
claim that you see on Instagram, like AI breakthrough cancer drug,
813
00:44:14.750 --> 00:44:18.900
you know, versus– you know, this is like, you found
814
00:44:18.940 --> 00:44:22.909
a P value, you know, something interesting popped up. This
815
00:44:22.949 --> 00:44:26.070
starts a 10 year drug discovery pipeline and it just
816
00:44:26.170 --> 00:44:28.730
never works. It never, it barely works for human when
817
00:44:28.769 --> 00:44:31.550
humans do it, you know, that's not to say there's
818
00:44:31.570 --> 00:44:35.929
not applications where AI could increase productivity or save time.
819
00:44:35.969 --> 00:44:40.889
But the idea that like genuine innovation in drug development
820
00:44:40.929 --> 00:44:44.179
is going to come from AI is pretty farfetched. Um,
821
00:44:44.630 --> 00:44:46.530
And people just have a really hard time believing that
822
00:44:46.550 --> 00:44:48.980
because it's like, well, when I ask it, it answers.
823
00:44:49.420 --> 00:44:53.440
So I can just say, chat GBT, develop a new
824
00:44:53.480 --> 00:44:56.639
drug for cancer, enter, you know? And from their mind,
825
00:44:56.679 --> 00:44:58.760
it is like this vast intelligence, but of course it
826
00:44:58.820 --> 00:45:03.139
is just a statistical model. And you can't, it's difficult
827
00:45:03.179 --> 00:45:06.909
to come up with truly novel innovation from weighted parameters,
828
00:45:06.969 --> 00:45:10.809
which are based on existing information, you know? Now, some
829
00:45:10.869 --> 00:45:15.360
new ideas are just the recombination of existing information. So
830
00:45:15.400 --> 00:45:19.519
it is technically possible for it to have interesting ideas,
831
00:45:19.659 --> 00:45:24.179
but you know, so far that has not manifested. Um, anyway,
832
00:45:24.219 --> 00:45:28.010
so the, the, he got kind of cut off. Someone
833
00:45:28.050 --> 00:45:32.170
else asked the question, what about effective altruism? Random subject change.
834
00:45:32.250 --> 00:45:33.929
I don't, I don't get some of these questions are
835
00:45:33.969 --> 00:45:37.050
such right turns, but if you don't know effective altruism,
836
00:45:37.309 --> 00:45:40.530
something for you to look into is this is like
837
00:45:40.590 --> 00:45:46.070
a semi-religious cult. It's really supposed to be like a
838
00:45:46.230 --> 00:45:54.659
group that is concerned about unmitigated AI development. But all
839
00:45:54.699 --> 00:45:57.539
the AI developers are in it, you know, or they were.
840
00:45:57.940 --> 00:46:01.320
It's come under scrutiny. But, you know, yeah, Sam Altman, Elon,
841
00:46:01.360 --> 00:46:05.019
these guys were all involved in the early days. And
842
00:46:05.079 --> 00:46:07.420
it's like, you know, the best thing you could do
843
00:46:07.559 --> 00:46:11.090
is just stop doing it. You know? But again, it's
844
00:46:11.159 --> 00:46:14.460
the Nazi scientist excuse. Like, well, if I if I quit,
845
00:46:14.579 --> 00:46:17.400
someone else will just take my place. So anyway, effective
846
00:46:17.460 --> 00:46:23.019
altruism is a very odd group with very strange. I mean,
847
00:46:23.059 --> 00:46:26.550
if you just read the beliefs, sounds good. But like
848
00:46:26.639 --> 00:46:31.389
the actual. It's a whole it would take a whole episode.
849
00:46:31.849 --> 00:46:32.150
Why?
850
00:46:32.250 --> 00:46:34.869
Why is what do you find so
lonesome about this
851
00:46:34.909 --> 00:46:35.550
group of people?
852
00:46:35.590 --> 00:46:36.250
Let's unpack it.
853
00:46:36.780 --> 00:46:40.300
Yeah, so I helped popularize and I even think I
854
00:46:40.320 --> 00:46:44.780
would say start the EAC movement, which was this counter insurgency.
855
00:46:45.360 --> 00:46:45.780
I think that.
856
00:46:46.059 --> 00:46:47.000
Sorry, there's EA.
857
00:46:47.599 --> 00:46:50.679
Yes. And then there's EAC. Which was intentionally named... EA
858
00:46:50.780 --> 00:46:52.260
is effective altruism.
859
00:46:52.519 --> 00:46:53.300
EAC is?
860
00:46:53.659 --> 00:46:54.860
Effective accelerationism.
861
00:46:55.159 --> 00:46:56.340
Effective accelerationism.
862
00:46:56.380 --> 00:46:59.980
Which means? Which means? That's a great question. It does
863
00:47:00.000 --> 00:47:02.579
mean sort of move fast and break things. And, you know,
864
00:47:02.820 --> 00:47:04.820
it's no secret that Zuckerberg came out the other day
865
00:47:04.860 --> 00:47:07.820
and said, we should move fast in AI. I think
866
00:47:07.840 --> 00:47:10.760
the fear-mongering is a little ridiculous, and there'll be a
867
00:47:10.760 --> 00:47:13.940
time to panic. It's just not now. Physical AI presents
868
00:47:13.980 --> 00:47:17.719
those opportunities. For now, I mean, you can turn off
869
00:47:17.739 --> 00:47:19.630
the computer. It's not that big of a deal. I
870
00:47:19.650 --> 00:47:23.070
think nerds get carried away. If you ever were a
871
00:47:23.230 --> 00:47:25.210
nerd or a jock, believe it or not, a little
872
00:47:25.230 --> 00:47:27.110
bit of both, the jocks know what to do when
873
00:47:27.130 --> 00:47:30.210
the spotlight's on them. The nerds don't, and they clam up.
874
00:47:30.289 --> 00:47:32.920
And some of them Instead of saying everything's fine, they
875
00:47:32.940 --> 00:47:34.780
want to draw attention to themselves. They want to say, well,
876
00:47:34.800 --> 00:47:36.699
the thing I'm working on is really amazing. And the
877
00:47:36.719 --> 00:47:40.719
reality is that this is just software. It's not the
878
00:47:40.739 --> 00:47:42.219
end of the world. It is the most important kind
879
00:47:42.260 --> 00:47:45.389
of software ever made, as you said earlier. But it's
880
00:47:45.449 --> 00:47:47.690
not going to kill us all. Dario also said that
881
00:47:47.730 --> 00:47:50.449
we'd be fully unemployed within one to five years, about
882
00:47:50.469 --> 00:47:53.309
two years ago. Well, he's got three years left. He
883
00:47:53.329 --> 00:47:55.030
also said that we'd cure all diseases. I don't think
884
00:47:55.050 --> 00:47:58.530
there'll be a single AI-relevant drug in the next 10 years.
885
00:47:59.809 --> 00:48:02.309
AI does not help drug discovery. If you've ever built drugs,
886
00:48:02.369 --> 00:48:04.610
and raise your hand if you've made a drug, gotten
887
00:48:04.670 --> 00:48:07.150
FDA approval for a drug. Okay, I'm pretty sure that's it.
888
00:48:08.210 --> 00:48:11.219
You know, it's pretty hard. It's pretty hard to do.
889
00:48:11.550 --> 00:48:14.070
And we've had computers for a long time. I built
890
00:48:14.090 --> 00:48:17.000
a Cray cluster to analyze drugs. Now I can use,
891
00:48:17.099 --> 00:48:20.159
you know, GPUs. It's great. But there isn't much AI
892
00:48:20.199 --> 00:48:22.039
can help us with in drug discovery.
893
00:48:22.119 --> 00:48:24.719
What is the revenue cycle that's driving valuation? So just
894
00:48:24.780 --> 00:48:27.800
unpack it from a hedge funder. You're sitting there, you're like, well,
895
00:48:28.340 --> 00:48:31.840
you see these run rates, right? I think Jensen mentioned
896
00:48:31.860 --> 00:48:35.429
it yesterday, $ 400 billion have gone into venture that has
897
00:48:35.469 --> 00:48:38.769
been redirected into AI. So do you interpret that as
898
00:48:39.269 --> 00:48:43.369
VCs funneling LP money to buy tokens effectively?
899
00:48:43.809 --> 00:48:45.760
Yeah, I think so. And that's your argument.
900
00:48:45.989 --> 00:48:46.159
Yeah.
901
00:48:46.510 --> 00:48:47.519
And I think you're going to have one.
902
00:48:47.539 --> 00:48:49.219
There's a valuation trap in there, do you think?
903
00:48:49.780 --> 00:48:52.139
I don't think so. I think that what you mentioned earlier, productivity,
904
00:48:52.159 --> 00:48:55.750
I mean, There is infinite demand for intelligence and infinite
905
00:48:55.769 --> 00:48:58.150
demand for work. When you said the workforce, I said,
906
00:48:58.170 --> 00:49:00.480
I think Brad's making a mistake here because if you
907
00:49:00.519 --> 00:49:03.079
take the TAM and limit it to knowledge workers, you're
908
00:49:03.099 --> 00:49:07.739
really undercutting the TAM. For sure. Trying to be conservative. Yeah.
909
00:49:07.780 --> 00:49:10.420
There's no limit towards intelligence. One example I used to give,
910
00:49:10.460 --> 00:49:12.510
and my buddy started.
911
00:49:13.250 --> 00:49:18.389
All right. Sorry. I didn't mean to play this whole thing. Sorry.
912
00:49:18.409 --> 00:49:21.360
I guess I did not really prepare. well um i'm
913
00:49:22.199 --> 00:49:22.820
trying to.
914
00:49:22.780 --> 00:49:27.280
Close everything on my computer because it's down to like
915
00:49:27.400 --> 00:49:31.679
three percent even though it's plugged in uh we will
916
00:49:33.000 --> 00:49:37.400
wrap up here quickly with this out-of-body experience thing i'm
917
00:49:37.440 --> 00:49:40.449
curious if you guys have heard of So there's a
918
00:49:40.489 --> 00:49:41.849
new study published.
919
00:49:42.409 --> 00:49:48.860
Um, let me find my, my page here. Who wrote it?
920
00:49:48.880 --> 00:49:59.400
The last thing started with an M I believe. Um, do, do, do, do, do. Um, Weiler, Weiler,
921
00:49:59.639 --> 00:50:10.289
M Weiler. It's published this year, June. Um, it is
922
00:50:10.750 --> 00:50:13.880
kind of published in a random journal, but, but it's
923
00:50:13.960 -->
00:50:15.980
a real journal, you know, it's peer reviewed and stuff.
924
00:50:16.940 --> 00:50:23.659
And they, what they did is they recruited something like
925
00:50:23.659 --> 00:50:28.289
30 people who are like claimed out of body experiencers.
926
00:50:28.949 --> 00:50:32.289
And this is just another way of describing what would
927
00:50:32.329 --> 00:50:37.309
have been called, you know, astral projection in the past.
928
00:50:39.250 --> 00:50:44.539
And so they recruited like 30 people who are apparently
929
00:50:46.800 --> 00:50:56.429
experienced astral projectors or out-of-body experiencers. And they put them
930
00:50:56.489 --> 00:51:04.539
in a room with an EEG cap on. And they
931
00:51:04.639 --> 00:51:10.940
had them attempt to visualize a computer screen in another room,
932
00:51:12.219 --> 00:51:17.179
no windows, you know, and, uh, report to the researchers
933
00:51:17.239 --> 00:51:19.889
what was on the screen. And it was random. There's
934
00:51:19.949 --> 00:51:25.510
random image generation. They would describe what they saw and, uh,
935
00:51:25.690 --> 00:51:29.409
an AI, you know, chat, GBT or whatever would take
936
00:51:29.449 --> 00:51:32.969
their description and render it into like a drawing and
937
00:51:32.989 --> 00:51:35.389
they would compare. and see if there was any similarity.
938
00:51:35.929 --> 00:51:38.849
And I don't know exactly how they scored things, but
939
00:51:38.949 --> 00:51:42.309
basically it was, it didn't work. So, you know, these,
940
00:51:42.769 --> 00:51:48.289
these out of body experiencers, um, were not better than
941
00:51:48.530 --> 00:51:53.550
chance at, at, uh, describing what was on the screen.
942
00:51:53.570 --> 00:51:55.719
So it's kind of a bummer. It's probably the only
943
00:51:55.760 --> 00:51:58.980
reason it got published. Um, which is because it said
944
00:51:59.059 --> 00:52:03.119
that didn't work. But interestingly, there were two participants who, uh,
945
00:52:04.130 --> 00:52:09.429
unprompted described in high detail scenes that they could or
946
00:52:09.510 --> 00:52:12.929
should not be aware of. Like another room in the
947
00:52:12.989 --> 00:52:15.630
lab that they were, they had, they didn't have access
948
00:52:15.650 --> 00:52:19.050
to and the orientation, like the description of where the
949
00:52:19.070 --> 00:52:21.980
people were sitting and what they were doing. And then
950
00:52:22.099 --> 00:52:25.199
later they verified, they went back and looked at the time,
951
00:52:25.440 --> 00:52:27.400
who was in what room at what time. And it
952
00:52:27.519 --> 00:52:31.599
was correct. So there were two people that gave these
953
00:52:31.639 --> 00:52:36.440
like interesting descriptions. Now it's kind of, you know, those
954
00:52:36.480 --> 00:52:40.260
aren't study outcomes and it wasn't, it wasn't, it wasn't
955
00:52:40.320 --> 00:52:42.780
formalized ahead of time. So technically you, you know, that
956
00:52:42.820 --> 00:52:45.989
you can't report that as a real finding, but it
957
00:52:46.050 --> 00:52:50.650
is interesting. I do like the interest in this kind
958
00:52:50.690 --> 00:52:53.489
of stuff that has been increasing. I just, I don't,
959
00:52:53.769 --> 00:52:56.230
I just, it does seem like if it is real
960
00:52:56.650 --> 00:52:58.409
and I'm not saying it is, but if it is real,
961
00:52:59.300 --> 00:53:01.320
it does not seem like the kind of thing that
962
00:53:01.360 --> 00:53:05.530
can really be studied. You know, because it it seems
963
00:53:05.670 --> 00:53:14.570
somewhat like obviously person dependent, but also like difficult to wield,
964
00:53:14.789 --> 00:53:18.550
I suppose. You know, like, I don't know. And also
965
00:53:18.610 --> 00:53:21.369
it could just be like stage magician stuff, you know,
966
00:53:21.409 --> 00:53:24.369
like these people could have snuck a peek in that
967
00:53:24.429 --> 00:53:26.929
room without anyone knowing, maybe, you know, because it wasn't
968
00:53:27.010 --> 00:53:29.510
formally a part of the study. Who knows? There weren't
969
00:53:29.570 --> 00:53:32.960
controls in place. So yeah, but this has prompted a
970
00:53:32.980 --> 00:53:37.300
lot of YouTube discussion and a lot of people criticizing
971
00:53:37.320 --> 00:53:41.869
the study. It should have been done differently. And this guy,
972
00:53:42.920 --> 00:53:46.489
I had considered playing this video, but given how long
973
00:53:46.610 --> 00:53:53.889
we've been talking, I'm kind of questioning. But he's a
974
00:53:53.929 --> 00:54:00.639
guy with a thick accent. Anton, Anton, something, I can
975
00:54:00.679 --> 00:54:07.760
pull it up. No, I don't think we'll do it.
976
00:54:07.940 --> 00:54:16.739
But basically, people are going into this big thing. It's
977
00:54:16.840 --> 00:54:21.530
sort of reinvigorated the consciousness is generated by the brain argument.
978
00:54:23.630 --> 00:54:25.889
And I would like to encourage you guys, if you
979
00:54:25.949 --> 00:54:33.070
feel like this push and pull between materialism in spirituality, religion, blah, blah, blah,
980
00:54:34.170 --> 00:54:38.159
is maybe just kind of like reframe the argument and
981
00:54:38.199 --> 00:54:42.179
think about things differently, like a little bit more dispassionately, maybe, perhaps.
982
00:54:43.679 --> 00:54:50.500
And just think about like, is consciousness physical? Now, if
983
00:54:50.519 --> 00:54:53.079
you're a religious person, you're probably going to want to
984
00:54:53.119 --> 00:54:56.530
say no. And if you're a more, you know, have
985
00:54:56.570 --> 00:54:59.710
more of a scientific materialist worldview, you want to say yes.
986
00:55:00.730 --> 00:55:02.650
but I think that is the wrong way to look
987
00:55:02.710 --> 00:55:06.849
at it because I don't think we know what physical means.
988
00:55:07.969 --> 00:55:10.739
You know, like when we say this, this phone that
989
00:55:10.760 --> 00:55:13.360
I'm holding is physical, like you don't really know what
990
00:55:13.519 --> 00:55:19.840
matter is, you know, and increasingly mainstream interpretations sort of
991
00:55:19.900 --> 00:55:23.480
leave us feeling like maybe matter isn't real. It, maybe
992
00:55:23.519 --> 00:55:27.949
it's just information, you know? And so it's, Think about
993
00:55:27.989 --> 00:55:31.320
the strangeness of being alive, of being here in this
994
00:55:31.440 --> 00:55:35.719
universe with its laws, you know, with its very well, very,
995
00:55:35.780 --> 00:55:42.059
you know, narrow laws. And, you know, we talked about
996
00:55:42.079 --> 00:55:45.719
like how the speed of light essentially is like great
997
00:55:45.780 --> 00:55:49.800
evidence for this being some sort of information bound universe,
998
00:55:49.860 --> 00:55:51.659
because that's how video games work. You know, you can
999
00:55:51.679 --> 00:55:55.559
travel one pixel per refresh rate of the monitor, you know,
1000
00:55:56.010 --> 00:56:00.739
otherwise your character's teleporting or lagging. And so when we
1001
00:56:00.780 --> 00:56:04.119
multiply our smallest distance by our smallest unit of time,
1002
00:56:04.260 --> 00:56:06.239
plank time, plank distance, we get the speed of light.
1003
00:56:07.400 --> 00:56:10.280
And when you multiply a pixel size in a video
1004
00:56:10.320 --> 00:56:15.420
game by the ability of the processor to generate a
1005
00:56:15.460 --> 00:56:18.139
new frame, you get the maximum speed that you can
1006
00:56:18.179 --> 00:56:20.889
travel in the game. And so there's just a lot
1007
00:56:20.929 --> 00:56:26.699
about our universe that points to what scientists would say is,
1008
00:56:26.739 --> 00:56:30.190
you know, maybe a simulation or multiverse or whatever. But
1009
00:56:30.230 --> 00:56:32.809
what I would probably just describe as design, like it
1010
00:56:32.849 --> 00:56:38.309
feels made, you know, and people hear design and they
1011
00:56:38.329 --> 00:56:42.090
think intelligent design, they think young earth, you know, 6,000
1012
00:56:42.090 --> 00:56:46.050
year old earth, the garden, but I'm much, I'm not
1013
00:56:46.090 --> 00:56:48.340
very dogmatic about that stuff. You guys know that I
1014
00:56:48.380 --> 00:56:52.090
think by now, I mean, I oscillate, but I'm just
1015
00:56:52.130 --> 00:56:54.409
like very comfortable with the idea like, okay, well, if
1016
00:56:54.469 --> 00:57:00.929
the universe is made and I am made, why wouldn't
1017
00:57:01.030 --> 00:57:02.769
consciousness be physical?
1018
00:57:04.949 --> 00:57:05.239
Right?
1019
00:57:05.449 --> 00:57:09.360
I mean, why wouldn't consciousness be physical? Now, I personally
1020
00:57:09.400 --> 00:57:12.280
do think there's a bit more to the story. And
1021
00:57:12.360 --> 00:57:15.059
I think that's actually quite obvious. We know very little
1022
00:57:15.139 --> 00:57:19.579
about consciousness in general. But of course, you need the
1023
00:57:19.639 --> 00:57:22.940
physical structure of the brain for consciousness to occur. But
1024
00:57:23.000 --> 00:57:26.460
I don't think the reverse is true. I don't think
1025
00:57:26.519 --> 00:57:30.440
that having the brain equals consciousness. I think there may
1026
00:57:30.539 --> 00:57:34.119
be some other aspect to it. And it could still
1027
00:57:34.159 --> 00:57:36.579
involve physical structures. Like, you know, we talked to Mike
1028
00:57:36.619 --> 00:57:40.579
Weist about orchestrated objective reduction. And, you know, there's integrated
1029
00:57:40.619 --> 00:57:45.159
information theory. And these are physical theories, but they point
1030
00:57:45.199 --> 00:57:50.579
to there being something more than just computation. And one
1031
00:57:50.619 --> 00:57:52.920
half of the argument is it's just an emergent property.
1032
00:57:52.960 --> 00:57:54.280
That doesn't make a lot of sense to me at.
1033
00:57:55.960 --> 00:57:56.119
All.
1034
00:57:57.059 --> 00:58:00.059
Anyway, the point is this, you know, if we, if
1035
00:58:00.099 --> 00:58:02.469
you were to take the Bible seriously, which I do,
1036
00:58:05.050 --> 00:58:08.230
it's kind of what it describes. It describes us as
1037
00:58:08.489 --> 00:58:13.289
being made. You know, we're made from the dust and
1038
00:58:13.349 --> 00:58:17.949
to the dust we will return when we die. Now,
1039
00:58:18.150 --> 00:58:20.929
what's unique about the New Testament, about the Christian religion,
1040
00:58:20.989 --> 00:58:24.389
is that we're told, yeah, you will die, you will
1041
00:58:24.409 --> 00:58:27.760
return to the dust, and you'll just be dead. You
1042
00:58:27.820 --> 00:58:30.360
won't be in heaven. I mean, that's my interpretation. I
1043
00:58:30.400 --> 00:58:33.699
know different religions have different viewpoints. I know that's a
1044
00:58:33.739 --> 00:58:37.280
very heterodox opinion, what I'm saying. But, I mean, just
1045
00:58:37.340 --> 00:58:41.889
read it. It seems to suggest that, you know, death
1046
00:58:42.030 --> 00:58:45.630
is like a deep sleep, which a deep sleep is
1047
00:58:45.670 --> 00:58:49.289
like non-existence, you know. Anyone who's had a really deep sleep,
1048
00:58:49.449 --> 00:58:53.920
you're not seeing blackness. You're just not seeing anything. You're non-existent.
1049
00:58:55.840 --> 00:59:00.079
And so death is like that. However, someday the world
1050
00:59:00.639 --> 00:59:03.309
and the heavens, you know, the earth and the universe
1051
00:59:03.369 --> 00:59:06.630
will be remade and you will be given a new body.
1052
00:59:06.829 --> 00:59:09.269
You'll be recreated. It's like a spawn point in a
1053
00:59:09.269 --> 00:59:12.079
video game. Like, you you just that character ceases to
1054
00:59:12.139 --> 00:59:17.570
exist but it is regenerated from memory somewhere else and
1055
00:59:17.650 --> 00:59:20.489
that description of the universe number one is just fascinating
1056
00:59:20.829 -->
00:59:25.340
right but number two is totally consistent with everything we
1057
00:59:25.400 --> 00:59:28.530
know about consciousness. I, this is a weird pivot from
1058
00:59:28.909 --> 00:59:31.969
the rest of this episode. I was planning for it
1059
00:59:32.010 --> 00:59:34.449
to be more out of body experience and less smart
1060
00:59:34.489 --> 00:59:38.610
and Shkreli, sorry, but, uh, my computer's died. So I'm
1061
00:59:38.630 --> 00:59:43.469
just trying to wrap it up. Um, but you know,
1062
00:59:43.489 --> 00:59:45.949
you watch these videos, like I encourage you to watch this.
1063
00:59:46.090 --> 00:59:49.519
Is it Anton? What's his name? Anton. It's got Anton.
1064
00:59:49.579 --> 00:59:49.860
I think.
1065
00:59:52.099 --> 00:59:52.480
Yes.
1066
00:59:54.139 --> 01:00:01.940
Uh, Anton Petrov. Anton Petrov. I encourage you to watch
1067
01:00:01.980 --> 01:00:05.039
this study. It's interesting. I mean, the claim is that,
1068
01:00:05.179 --> 01:00:11.409
you know, of course, it's not supernatural. But I don't
1069
01:00:11.489 --> 01:00:17.210
think they are using that word correctly. Like, I don't
1070
01:00:17.230 --> 01:00:20.449
think there is such a thing as the supernatural meaning
1071
01:00:20.650 --> 01:00:26.369
different from nature, right? I think there is our created universe,
1072
01:00:26.730 --> 01:00:29.800
which is what we might call natural, but it is
1073
01:00:29.940 --> 01:00:34.300
created by something that exists outside of this universe. And
1074
01:00:34.340 --> 01:00:36.760
you could call that supernatural. I'd be comfortable with that.
1075
01:00:37.380 --> 01:00:41.469
But consciousness itself, I think it is natural. I think it,
1076
01:00:41.480 --> 01:00:45.440
I think you could, you know, I think it, I
1077
01:00:45.480 --> 01:00:48.940
think it would be a little reductionistic to say it's
1078
01:00:49.079 --> 01:00:54.449
generated by the brain, you know, um, But it is
1079
01:00:55.690 --> 01:00:59.150
certainly obviously related to the brain and local to the brain.
1080
01:00:59.550 --> 01:01:08.650
It's something quite intrinsic to the brain. And if matter
1081
01:01:08.730 --> 01:01:12.409
is just information, then it's all supernatural. Everything we're in
1082
01:01:13.289 --> 01:01:20.389
is supernatural. It's made. It's created. And so I think
1083
01:01:20.429 --> 01:01:24.619
the paradigm is wrong. Like we're arguing about like nature
1084
01:01:24.719 --> 01:01:30.159
versus or like religion versus science, supernatural versus natural. I
1085
01:01:30.179 --> 01:01:33.219
just think this is incorrect. I mean, you, you can
1086
01:01:33.300 --> 01:01:36.239
imagine just making your video game, right? Designing your video
1087
01:01:36.260 --> 01:01:42.750
game and watching your, your, say you create conscious agents
1088
01:01:42.869 --> 01:01:45.949
in the game, little characters, and you can imagine them
1089
01:01:45.989 --> 01:01:50.070
spending thousands of years arguing about
these deep questions, you know, like,
1090
01:01:51.269 --> 01:01:56.190
Am I conscious? Am I not? You know, what is consciousness? Well, I,
1091
01:01:56.389 --> 01:01:58.409
you know, I think it's just a function of the brain,
1092
01:01:58.510 --> 01:02:01.920
which evolved over time. And the other guy's like, no,
1093
01:02:01.980 --> 01:02:05.199
I think it came from our creator. And it could
1094
01:02:05.239 --> 01:02:08.920
just be that they're both correct. You know, because if,
1095
01:02:10.239 --> 01:02:13.619
if we made them, then it did come from the creator.
1096
01:02:14.159 --> 01:02:16.199
But if we made the rules of the game and
1097
01:02:16.219 --> 01:02:18.869
we made the information set and the rule set such that,
1098
01:02:19.170 --> 01:02:23.699
that consciousness would emerge over time, then they're both right,
1099
01:02:24.480 --> 01:02:27.940
you know? But I think they would both be shocked
1100
01:02:28.820 --> 01:02:31.099
at the end if they found out how it really works, right?
1101
01:02:31.940 --> 01:02:36.719
So anyway, I don't know if that's useful or interesting
1102
01:02:36.780 --> 01:02:40.449
or important, but just some thoughts I wanted to get
1103
01:02:40.530 --> 01:02:43.230
out there. What do you guys think about Martin Shkreli?
1104
01:02:45.469 --> 01:02:47.590
I don't ever want to agree with him on anything,
1105
01:02:47.610 --> 01:02:48.989
but I do kind of agree with him on this
1106
01:02:49.070 --> 01:02:58.039
AI stuff. The desperate human need for companionship, for hope,
1107
01:02:58.519 --> 01:03:02.940
for promise, this void we have, this hole in us
1108
01:03:02.980 --> 01:03:07.559
that we have, it so badly wants our AI friend
1109
01:03:08.000 --> 01:03:12.420
to come along and be there for us and cure
1110
01:03:12.480 --> 01:03:18.360
our cancer and usher in the golden age. But that's just,
1111
01:03:19.699 --> 01:03:24.139
that's magical thinking. That's religious thinking more than anything I've
1112
01:03:24.159 --> 01:03:26.940
done on this show. So anyway, I'm curious what you
1113
01:03:26.960 --> 01:03:30.099
guys think. Send me an email at godsideviewbook at gmail.com.
1114
01:03:30.139 --> 01:03:33.719
Thank you to my core 200. I'll try to do
1115
01:03:33.739 --> 01:03:36.590
a better job with our programming on the next show.
1116
01:03:36.610 --> 01:03:39.269
We'll try to find some shorter, more interesting clips. But
1117
01:03:39.769 --> 01:03:42.710
until then, I hope everyone's having a good Sunday. Stay
1118
01:03:42.789 --> 01:03:44.929
safe out there. And God bless.
1119
01:03:48.760 --> 01:04:08.389
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1129
01:04:33.849 --> 01:04:34.389
Hi, everybody.
1130
01:04:34.489 --> 01:04:37.210
It's me, Cinderella X. You are listening to the Fringe
1131
01:04:37.230 --> 01:04:38.909
Radio Network. I know I was going to tell them.
1132
01:05:03.320 --> 01:05:05.840
Hey, do you have the app? It's the best way
1133
01:05:05.900 --> 01:05:07.699
to listen to the Fringe Radio Network.
1134
01:05:08.219 --> 01:05:10.820
It's safe, and you don't have to log in to
1135
01:05:11.000 --> 01:05:13.920
use it, and it doesn't track you or trace you,
1136
01:05:13.940 --> 01:05:15.739
and it sounds beautiful.
1137
01:05:16.980 --> 01:05:19.079
I know, I was going to tell him. How do
1138
01:05:19.099 --> 01:05:24.030
you get the app? Just go to FringeRadioNetwork.com, right at
1139
01:05:24.070 --> 01:05:27.590
the top of the page. I know, Slippers, we've got
1140
01:05:27.610 --> 01:05:29.050
to keep cleaning these chimneys.