Volledige transcriptie van 129: The Quantum Trap

00:02:26,180 decision, there were two dissents with Cook and Hammock dissenting in favor of a rate hike. 33 00:02:26,700 --> 00:02:32,280 The Fed says economic activity is expanding at a, quote, stronger pace. And Fed says inflation 34 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:37,660 remains, quote, elevated and seeks more information. The Fed notes that the geopolitical 35 00:02:37,660 --> 00:02:42,620 developments are contributing to uncertainty. And the Fed asserts that, quote, the committee 36 00:02:42,620 --> 00:02:49,440 will deliver price stability. OK, so essentially, yeah, they're still signaling as much as they do 37 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:53,780 signal that they're going to raise rates in December. But they did not raise rates today, 38 00:02:54,260 --> 00:03:01,480 as expected. The reason why, okay, so why is it expected? Why was it as expected? It's not 39 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:06,400 guaranteed the rate hikes will do any good. This is a really tough one for old Kevin. I don't know 40 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:11,500 why the hell he took this job. You see, you hike rates, well, the AI trade gets even harder to fund. 41 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:16,760 GDP starts to fall off a cliff. But the housing market, we don't talk about the housing market a 42 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:21,260 lot on this show because it's not really driving global liquidity, but it is absolutely driving 43 00:03:21,260 --> 00:03:27,640 the U.S. market. And housing will not respond well to a rate increase. So that's another calculus. 44 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:33,520 But the worst part of it might be, for Kevin, if you could have empathy for the Fed chair, 45 00:03:34,500 --> 00:03:37,940 if energy is the real driver of inflation at the moment, if we just accept that argument, 46 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,700 even if the conflict in Iran were to wrap up, say, in December, 47 00:03:42,460 --> 00:03:46,440 there's still second and third order impacts on production. But more importantly, 48 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:52,020 shipping. So while oil prices in a barrel might go down when the conflict resolves, 49 00:03:52,380 --> 00:03:56,940 we don't know for sure if the prices we actually pay at the pump will go down. 50 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:02,820 I think that we will likely drift back down to, say, 60s by the end of next year, 51 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:10,000 should the war end. But I think there's a scenario where you see crude oil fall back, 52 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:16,280 but we haven't repaired the situation in Russia and Ukraine. And the Houthis are still harassing 53 00:04:16,280 --> 00:04:18,560 you know, Red Sea refineries. 54 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:19,980 You could end up in a scenario 55 00:04:19,980 --> 00:04:21,040 where you still have, 56 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:22,220 let's say a $60 Brent, 57 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:24,680 but you still have $100 a barrel diesel crack. 58 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:26,400 So you're still at this kind of, 59 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,200 you know, like

150, $160 a barrel diesel. 60 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:30,400 Like that is a scenario 61 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:31,760 that I think is very plausible. 62 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:34,600 And that's because while very clearly, 63 00:04:34,980 --> 00:04:36,800 I think we have too much 64 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:38,440 upstream crude oil production capacity 65 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:39,240 structure in the world. 66 00:04:39,740 --> 00:04:40,900 What's very clear is that 67 00:04:40,900 --> 00:04:41,900 we increasingly do not have 68 00:04:41,900 --> 00:04:43,240 enough refining capacity 69 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:44,840 to transform it reliably 70 00:04:44,840 --> 00:04:45,760 into what we need. 71 00:04:46,280 --> 00:04:48,140 And given those shipping rate floods, 72 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:49,760 more and more of those refineries 73 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,640 are not conveniently located 74 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:53,660 next to either consuming regions 75 00:04:53,660 --> 00:04:55,060 or to the sources of oil. 76 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:56,020 So you're often, for instance, 77 00:04:56,540 --> 00:04:59,760 you know, India would often import crude 78 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:00,400 from the Middle East 79 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:02,440 and then re-export diesel to Europe. 80 00:05:02,780 --> 00:05:05,080 That's an extraordinarily expensive trade now 81 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:06,360 given how expensive shipping is. 82 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:08,240 So up until recently, 83 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:09,520 we never really thought about this 84 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:11,860 because essentially time and distance 85 00:05:11,860 --> 00:05:15,080 was nearly free in the oil market. 86 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:20,060 shipping on tankers was so cheap that it was really, really easy to arbitrage these various 87 00:05:20,060 --> 00:05:25,160 markets, you know, from surplus to deficit, et cetera. But now you've essentially this 88 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,600 explosion of shipping rates has essentially fractured that global oil market into a 89 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,920 balkanized oil market that's increasingly difficult to effectively arbitrage between 90 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,300 those pools. I think that's the reality we're now going to deal with until we can sort that out. 91 00:05:36,780 --> 00:05:40,840 So here's where I see it. A Fed rate hike, I'm of the school of thought that when they 92 00:05:40,840 --> 00:05:47,880 rate change, either down or up, there are immediate market effects that take effect. And we see that 93 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:53,060 priced in in stocks and sometimes bonds and the money rates for like, you know, mortgages. 94 00:05:53,480 --> 00:06:00,480 But the actual real long tail impact, like the supply chain side and the economic price chain, 95 00:06:00,980 --> 00:06:06,440 all of that, like the stuff where it impacts the prices in the grocery store and all, it takes a 96 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:12,520 year or two. And I just say that having watched this now play out, there are immediate effects, 97 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:17,980 but the real long tail effects are one to two years. And so when the Fed raises rates, 98 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:23,620 they're really raising rates almost into the future or lowering rates into the past. It's 99 00:06:23,620 --> 00:06:28,520 delayed the effect that it has. So that's one problem they have. Plus, this energy situation 100 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:35,440 is moving really fast. And if this does play out, where even if the oil price comes down to like 60 101 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:40,160 or $70 a barrel doesn't necessarily mean that's what the truckers will be paying at the pump. 102 00:06:40,340 --> 00:06:43,420 That makes a Fed rate cut even less effective. 103 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:48,180 What do you think about kind of the perverse set of incentives for the Fed that's been set up here 104 00:06:48,180 --> 00:06:54,260 in the sense that financial conditions are already tightening and for the Fed to do more at this 105 00:06:54,260 --> 00:07:00,560 point when all of the catalysts are coming from exogenous factors like oil and things like that. 106 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:10,100 I mean, PBI we could talk about, but like, you know, I saw a Bloomberg headline this morning that said CoreWeave has made it impossible for the Fed to hike again. 107 00:07:10,820 --> 00:07:14,660 And don't you think that's not even just a tail wagging the dog? 108 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:20,820 It's I mean, this isn't supposed to be how monetary policy works, right? 109 00:07:20,820 --> 00:07:25,1000 This fun podcast is The Market Hang, and it's featured by Yahoo Finance. 110 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:31,520 And apparently the hosts are perhaps becoming an aware bear. 111 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:37,280 We talked about CoreWeave last week, and it's not really the focus of the clip, but there is that question. 112 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:41,020 Does stock market performance impact the short-term Fed rate decision-making? 113 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:43,800 It's not supposed to, but it kind of seems like it does. 114 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:48,560 This isn't supposed to be how monetary policy works, right? 115 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:54,300 And I hope that the Fed isn't taking into their calculus core weaves current financial condition. 116 00:07:54,780 --> 00:07:57,340 Perhaps they are. I hope they are not. 117 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,740 But I just go back to my opening statement. 118 00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:08,660 If, in fact, the majority of the current inflationary pressures, as we saw from CPI recently, are oil and gas. 119 00:08:09,060 --> 00:08:14,360 Right. We actually saw reductions month over month in poultry and meat prices and in dairy prices. 120 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:22,300 If the bulk of it now is in energy, right, what is the Fed or Reserve raising by 25 basis 121 00:08:22,300 --> 00:08:23,300 points? 122 00:08:23,300 --> 00:08:26,040 Let's just say they

raised by another 25 basis points this year. 123 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,040 What's that going to do to bring down the price of oil? 124 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:44,109 So if they get this wrong and they continue to raise interest rates to try and combat oil inflationary pressures do they start to now pull forward one of those potential rate cuts into early 2027 125 00:08:44,109 --> 00:08:47,269 if we start to see more weakness 126 00:08:47,269 --> 00:08:49,389 in the other side of their dual mandate, 127 00:08:49,529 --> 00:08:50,709 that being the labor market? 128 00:08:50,889 --> 00:08:53,829 So I hope they're not taking in core weave 129 00:08:53,829 --> 00:08:55,809 into their calculus for the October meeting. 130 00:08:56,129 --> 00:08:59,069 If they are, I think we have a lot more problems right now. 131 00:08:59,069 --> 00:09:11,789 I want to bring this back to why I say this sort of makes the AI trade a little shaky or a bit of an unwind because we've got an inflation driver that we can't really get a handle on, at least yet. 132 00:09:12,249 --> 00:09:14,189 There may be levers there that could be pulled. 133 00:09:14,849 --> 00:09:19,989 You've got a Fed, though, that only has one lever, and that's rates, a credit market that's 134 00:09:19,989 --> 00:09:24,229 already getting tight as a response to where the Fed seems to be going and has gone, and 135 00:09:24,229 --> 00:09:29,549 an AI build-out that's becoming starved for cash and resources, both in build-out in terms 136 00:09:29,549 --> 00:09:33,489 of physical infrastructure, but then acquiring chips and all of that kind of stuff. 137 00:09:33,489 --> 00:09:35,689 So I want to play Michael Howell here. 138 00:09:35,809 --> 00:09:41,749 He joined David Lin, and he lays out the bear case for the ongoing funding of the AI market 139 00:09:41,749 --> 00:09:42,449 and build-out. 140 00:09:42,449 --> 00:09:45,389 Going back to Meta as an example, earnings came out last night. 141 00:09:45,749 --> 00:09:49,349 Free cash flow was negative last quarter at $2.12 billion. 142 00:09:49,969 --> 00:09:52,249 They're sitting on $82 billion of cash currently. 143 00:09:53,609 --> 00:09:57,709 If free cash flow continues to be negative, where at least doesn't grow substantially, 144 00:09:58,109 --> 00:10:01,469 the concern is that they won't be able to fund their own build out internally, 145 00:10:01,669 --> 00:10:03,189 which means they have to raise capital. 146 00:10:03,609 --> 00:10:08,289 Now, they've actually introduced a new classy common stock in preparation for, 147 00:10:08,289 --> 00:10:10,849 I guess, the anticipation of needing fresh capital. 148 00:10:11,289 --> 00:10:13,109 So what does the AI sector face right now? 149 00:10:13,189 --> 00:10:14,089 What are their biggest hurdles? 150 00:10:14,449 --> 00:10:15,849 And how do they overcome those hurdles? 151 00:10:16,789 --> 00:10:19,389 Well, I think it's how they overcome it. 152 00:10:19,429 --> 00:10:20,469 I think it's going

to be very difficult. 153 00:10:20,669 --> 00:10:22,729 I think you've got a lot of parallels in the past. 154 00:10:23,149 --> 00:10:25,989 I mean, people have alluded to, you know, what happened to the railroads. 155 00:10:25,989 --> 00:10:29,149 I mean, railroad infrastructure is still there. 156 00:10:29,509 --> 00:10:31,969 But clearly, the companies that originally put that down are not. 157 00:10:32,309 --> 00:10:34,229 The same thing as you look at fiber optic cable. 158 00:10:34,629 --> 00:10:37,369 Fiber optic 20 years ago was the darling of the market. 159 00:10:37,369 --> 00:10:42,289 Global Crossing was a major IPO that came in the late 90s to the street. 160 00:10:42,729 --> 00:10:44,969 You know, it got off well on a great footing. 161 00:10:45,129 --> 00:10:48,029 But within five years, Global Crossing was in Chapter 11. 162 00:10:48,389 --> 00:10:54,809 And it was simply because, not because the technology was bad, but simply because margins on fiber optic collapsed by 80%. 163 00:10:54,809 --> 00:11:02,769 Now, see, this is why I'm not a fan of using the dot-com bust or fiber optic bust as a parallel to AI. 164 00:11:03,389 --> 00:11:05,289 I'm old enough now to have been there. 165 00:11:05,289 --> 00:11:11,569 In fact, it really screwed up the job market for me for a little bit as a kid that had gotten out of school and was trying to get into the tech industry. 166 00:11:12,429 --> 00:11:13,949 And so I kind of remember it pretty well. 167 00:11:14,389 --> 00:11:22,109 And the bit that is left off when people make the analysis of the dot-com boom and say, oh, well, you know, we got some Amazons out of that. 168 00:11:22,429 --> 00:11:25,029 Because that's a valid argument, and I think there's something to it. 169 00:11:25,329 --> 00:11:28,029 But there is a piece of the analysis that is missed. 170 00:11:28,649 --> 00:11:32,889 The reason why the margins dropped off, the reason why the fiber optic build out stopped, 171 00:11:32,989 --> 00:11:38,869 the reason why so many dot-com companies went bust is because there were no customers. 172 00:11:39,989 --> 00:11:42,629 Nerds like me weren't enough to sustain the bubble. 173 00:11:43,469 --> 00:11:46,289 Most people were still afraid to put their credit card on the internet. 174 00:11:46,729 --> 00:11:48,729 Some didn't even come around until COVID. 175 00:11:49,329 --> 00:11:54,669 And my wife works with patients who still refuse to order anything online. 176 00:11:54,989 --> 00:11:57,589 They come to her for some reason in some cases. 177 00:11:57,589 --> 00:12:06,249 Like it's, I think, a lost bit of history that the reason why Pets.com failed is because there weren't enough customers. 178 00:12:06,629 --> 00:12:12,249 The business was kind of crazy, but nothing more bonkers than what we have today with DoorDash or Uber or anything like that. 179 00:12:12,329 --> 00:12:14,829 But there's a sustainable market there now. 180 00:12:15,429 --> 00:12:20,229 And I think you could make the argument that there is a market, an argument for the market. 181 00:12:20,449 --> 00:12:20,689 I don't know. 182 00:12:21,289 --> 00:12:22,809 Look at the IPO from Anthropic. 183 00:12:23,049 --> 00:12:24,629 There's a lot of weird stuff in there. 184 00:12:24,969 --> 00:12:26,969 But they're also making $16 billion. 185 00:12:28,329 --> 00:12:29,089 That's money. 186 00:12:29,889 --> 00:12:32,269 OpenAI has a lot of costs, but they're making money. 187 00:12:32,629 --> 00:12:34,489 The question is, how can they square that? 188 00:12:34,549 --> 00:12:36,689 Can they end up making enough money to cover all this debt? 189 00:12:37,269 --> 00:12:39,089 That's where the questions lie. 190 00:12:39,369 --> 00:12:40,949 But they are making money. 191 00:12:41,409 --> 00:12:45,769 So where this bear analysis, I think, sort of falls down is in that regard. 192 00:12:45,989 --> 00:12:48,089 But I still think there is some merit to the argument. 193 00:12:48,089 --> 00:12:52,909 Knowledge was bad, but simply because margins on fiber optic collapsed by 80%. 194 00:12:52,909 --> 00:12:54,449 And this is the problem. 195 00:12:54,449 --> 00:12:58,369 You need cash flow generation to keep financing the debt that you're taking on. 196 00:12:58,809 --> 00:13:04,209 And the debt that is being taken on, as has just been alluded to, is eye-wateringly large. 197 00:13:04,589 --> 00:13:09,429 I mean, we're talking at least $2 trillion next year and after probably one and a half 198 00:13:09,429 --> 00:13:10,569 or whatever it may be this year. 199 00:13:10,829 --> 00:13:16,229 So these are big, big amounts of debt that are coming onto the market at a time when you've 200 00:13:16,229 --> 00:13:21,109 also got what is called the debt maturity wall, which is the echo effect from the COVID 201 00:13:21,109 --> 00:13:26,829 years when a lot of investors decided that they would take advantage of zero interest rates or 202 00:13:26,829 --> 00:13:31,989 low rates and basically term out their debt into the latter part of this decade. But that is coming 203 00:13:31,989 --> 00:13:38,429 to the fore now to be rolled over at a time when you've got new debt coming on from the AI CapEx, 204 00:13:38,509 --> 00:13:42,089 from the federal government, et cetera. And that's just talking about America. What about 205 00:13:42,089 --> 00:13:45,689 the rest of the world? Yeah, that's the part I actually think he's kind of on about. He's right. 206 00:13:45,969 --> 00:13:50,209 So we've got an inflation driver we can't get our handle on, at least yet. 207 00:13:50,749 --> 00:13:53,229 And you got this Fed in their situation. 208 00:13:53,769 --> 00:13:57,509 You've got now this lending situation with the credit market that's getting tougher. 209 00:13:57,949 --> 00:14:03,769 And in some cases, the bond market's demonstrated they'd rather buy a tech company bond than a federal government bond. 210 00:14:04,349 --> 00:14:08,309 All of that is really positioning Bitcoin. 211

00:14:08,309 --> 00:14:24,229 And that's why when you get guys that are in this AI trade and they come out on podcasts or on social media with arrogance and this cocksureness of where they're going and they trash on Bitcoin, I've got to respond. 212 00:14:24,229 --> 00:14:35,629 I had to be clear. 213 00:14:36,589 --> 00:14:38,729 I think the AI technology is a sure bet. 214 00:14:39,129 --> 00:14:43,309 We've only begun to use it, and it has so much more, 215 00:14:43,789 --> 00:14:46,169 especially when it comes to purpose-built models, 216 00:14:46,329 --> 00:14:48,529 smaller models, the harnesses around these things. 217 00:14:48,949 --> 00:14:49,409 Boy, howdy. 218 00:14:50,069 --> 00:14:52,289 Some of these AI companies, though, let's be honest, 219 00:14:52,809 --> 00:14:55,169 They're either going to go away or they're going to get consolidated. 220 00:14:55,769 --> 00:15:04,389 And if the recent market realities didn't bring any level of humility to the billionaires that have gotten rich early in the AI trade, it's like they don't sniff anything coming. 221 00:15:04,929 --> 00:15:07,829 Well, we have a perfect example. 222 00:15:08,529 --> 00:15:09,009 Chamath. 223 00:15:09,589 --> 00:15:11,689 Chamath Palitapia or whatever. 224 00:15:12,409 --> 00:15:14,089 He was an early backer in Grok. 225 00:15:14,129 --> 00:15:19,449 Of course, he got his first money from Facebook, but he was an early backer in Grok with a Q, the inference company. 226 00:15:19,449 --> 00:15:23,529 and Forbes estimate that when they sold to NVIDIA, 227 00:15:23,849 --> 00:15:26,689 his office made somewhere around $1.2 billion. 228 00:15:27,449 --> 00:15:29,629 Of course, Chamath has not won every trade. 229 00:15:29,629 --> 00:15:35,869 He did hold approximately 2,739 Bitcoin in 2014. 230 00:15:36,689 --> 00:15:39,249 And in early 2020, he sold the rest of his stash 231 00:15:39,249 --> 00:15:41,709 to Digital Currency Group in exchange for equity 232 00:15:41,709 --> 00:15:43,029 and no longer holds Bitcoin. 233 00:15:43,209 --> 00:15:46,069 However, because of his recent success in the AI trade, 234 00:15:46,449 --> 00:15:49,349 when he speaks, people listen and play clips of it. 235 00:15:49,449 --> 00:15:51,489 So at this point, you probably know it's coming. 236 00:15:51,749 --> 00:15:55,469 On Peter Diamond's Moonshots podcast, Chamath agreed that Bitcoin is done. 237 00:15:55,809 --> 00:15:56,909 So take a listen. 238 00:15:57,089 --> 00:16:00,629 And then I just want to address a few of these claims because they're probably going to get propagated around. 239 00:16:00,709 --> 00:16:02,549 You're probably hearing people talk about it. 240 00:16:03,049 --> 00:16:07,089 And the fact of the matter is Chamath got the technical details dead wrong. 241 00:16:07,529 --> 00:16:07,629 Great. 242 00:16:07,849 --> 00:16:08,209 All right. 243 00:16:08,329 --> 00:16:09,589 So I'll kick it off. 244 00:16:09,829 --> 00:16:13,289 So OpenAI solves 722 math problems. 245 00:16:13,809 --> 00:16:15,469 None of them reported encryption. 246 00:16:15,469 --> 00:16:21,349 I'm assuming that encryption was to a significant degree cracked if it was pointed in that direction. 247 00:16:21,989 --> 00:16:28,409 What's your view on crypto given the meteoric rise of superintelligence here? 248 00:16:28,729 --> 00:16:30,269 Are we safe or are we not? 249 00:16:30,389 --> 00:16:31,009 I think it's capped. 250 00:16:31,209 --> 00:16:36,409 I think that traditional crypto lacks the fungibility to have all forms of buyers. 251 00:16:36,549 --> 00:16:40,769 The buying pool is really retail, then institutionals, and then central banks. 252 00:16:40,989 --> 00:16:43,689 And retail lacks the fungibility to be owned by central banks. 253 00:16:43,689 --> 00:16:45,149 So it's capped from that perspective. 254 00:16:45,469 --> 00:16:54,329 Then it's capped because there are enough leaks around who owns what that now creates security risks. 255 00:16:54,489 --> 00:17:02,689 I think France being the best example where I think the French government forced publication of who owned what crypto assets and you had just a complete flurry of kidnappings. 256 00:17:02,989 --> 00:17:04,269 I'll just address this one really quick. 257 00:17:04,329 --> 00:17:08,149 I'm not sure why this is Bitcoin's fault necessarily. 258 00:17:08,929 --> 00:17:24,978 They could have it was a leak from a French tax office They could have just as easily leaked people that have real estate holdings right Or business owners gold holdings So that wasn really a fault of Bitcoin I just I don need to you know I respond to some of this later but that one right away 259 00:17:24,978 --> 00:17:25,738 is just sort of, come on. 260 00:17:25,819 --> 00:17:27,518 That's just like lumping in random. 261 00:17:27,918 --> 00:17:32,559 Location of who owned what crypto assets and you had just a complete flurry of kidnappings 262 00:17:32,559 --> 00:17:34,738 and, you know, all kinds of really bad things. 263 00:17:34,819 --> 00:17:35,859 And then the third is around. 264 00:17:35,918 --> 00:17:36,738 Really just one more thing. 265 00:17:36,758 --> 00:17:39,579 It's really a case for no KYC. 266 00:17:39,579 --> 00:17:44,639 it's a case for not registering your assets with your government is what it is because it was leaked 267 00:17:44,639 --> 00:17:50,738 from an off a tax office and then people people's lives were ruined as a result so it's it's actually 268 00:17:50,738 --> 00:17:56,139 it's funny because chamath is known as the dictator he's always just so for my he's all about 269 00:17:56,139 --> 00:18:01,039 he thinks all ai should be kyc'd but it's really actually an argument against kyc but he's too 270 00:18:01,039 --> 00:18:05,579 dense to realize it it's a complete flurry of kidnappings and you know all kinds of really 271 00:18:05,579 --> 00:18:11,938 bad things. And then the third is around AI, where if you believe that recursive self-improvement is... 272 00:18:11,938

--> 00:18:15,498 I love that he puts RSI in here. Like RSI has anything to do with it. 273 00:18:16,158 --> 00:18:21,178 You know, I guess the implication is that RSI means that AI is going to get better so fast, 274 00:18:21,238 --> 00:18:22,918 it's going to get so fast better. Oh my gosh. 275 00:18:22,918 --> 00:18:28,819 Around AI, where if you believe that, you know, recursive self-improvement is pointed towards, 276 00:18:28,938 --> 00:18:35,119 you know, cryptographic hacks, the most obvious thing to point it to would be to Satoshi's wallet 277 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:41,138 and, you know, to break SHA-256 and just kind of drain the wallet and then go short and then tell 278 00:18:41,138 --> 00:18:46,539 people that you did it. So then you'd make the money twice. That's the most honest admission 279 00:18:46,539 --> 00:18:50,998 right there is, of course, he would skimoth if this happened. He would pull a little skimoth 280 00:18:50,998 --> 00:18:55,119 and he would short everybody. That's the biggest tell right there in this entire clip. 281 00:18:55,898 --> 00:18:59,938 And then tell people that you did it. So then you'd make the money twice. 282 00:18:59,938 --> 00:19:05,619 all those things I think are realistic reasons why it's capped and there's an upper bound. 283 00:19:05,619 --> 00:19:14,198 And so it's incumbent on these efforts to migrate to quantum secure, quantum resistant 284 00:19:14,198 --> 00:19:18,599 cryptographic mechanisms, which as you can see in the Bitcoin community is basically impossible 285 00:19:18,599 --> 00:19:24,698 because it's a bunch of people that can't even agree, you know, where to meet, let alone 286 00:19:24,698 --> 00:19:28,478 let alone what time the meeting starts at. 287 00:19:28,718 --> 00:19:30,678 So I think crypto is a bit lost. 288 00:19:30,758 --> 00:19:31,438 They don't get on Zoom. 289 00:19:31,619 --> 00:19:32,019 What's here? 290 00:19:32,258 --> 00:19:34,599 So do you think Bitcoin is cooked? 291 00:19:35,698 --> 00:19:36,839 I just think it's capped. 292 00:19:36,918 --> 00:19:38,438 And then I think eventually it gets hacked. 293 00:19:38,678 --> 00:19:41,458 I love a 68-year-old man using the term cooked. 294 00:19:41,938 --> 00:19:42,758 Bitcoin is cooked? 295 00:19:43,859 --> 00:19:44,998 I just think it's capped. 296 00:19:45,059 --> 00:19:46,619 And then I think eventually it gets hacked. 297 00:19:46,778 --> 00:19:47,718 And then it goes to zero. 298 00:19:47,878 --> 00:19:48,539 Do you own Bitcoin? 299 00:19:48,918 --> 00:19:49,559 Are you willing to say? 300 00:19:49,559 --> 00:19:50,539 Through a company. 301 00:19:50,638 --> 00:19:52,138 Through a company called Digital Currency Group. 302 00:19:52,138 --> 00:19:55,238 So I had this very long term investment in Bitcoin. 303 00:19:55,539 --> 00:19:57,958 I seeded it to DCG a long time ago. 304 00:19:58,039 --> 00:19:59,859 They started up a bunch of ETFs. 305 00:20:00,319 --> 00:20:01,978 They gave me stock in return. 306 00:20:02,158 --> 00:20:05,898 And that was much better for me because then I alleviated myself of the storage risk and 307 00:20:05,898 --> 00:20:07,218 the security risk and I had equity. 308 00:20:07,599 --> 00:20:10,099 Oh, oh, OK. 309 00:20:10,178 --> 00:20:14,019 So let's go through some of this because Chimaz's own numbers of his Bitcoin stash have been 310 00:20:14,019 --> 00:20:14,819 all over the place. 311 00:20:14,819 --> 00:20:19,158 But I did have some bots do some digging through multiple podcasts and interviews. 312 00:20:19,158 --> 00:20:24,119 and his most commonly cited number is that he once held 100,000 Bitcoin, 313 00:20:24,819 --> 00:20:27,918 which today would be roughly worth $8 billion. 314 00:20:28,658 --> 00:20:31,958 Something tells me the equity he got in Digital Currency Group 315 00:20:31,958 --> 00:20:33,398 probably isn't worth $8 billion. 316 00:20:34,218 --> 00:20:36,559 So he may have some bias in this conversation 317 00:20:36,559 --> 00:20:39,658 because he is, if you will, all in on the AI trade. 318 00:20:40,258 --> 00:20:42,359 But let's talk about the one that's just so disappointing 319 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,619 because Chamath likes to present himself as a deep researcher. 320 00:20:45,918 --> 00:20:48,478 He'll often talk about how he has a team of people 321 00:20:48,478 --> 00:20:52,599 that go real deep into topics and he just becomes an expert. And then he goes and, you know, 322 00:20:52,638 --> 00:20:58,498 shares sometimes some of his musings on X. The problem is, is that he conflates SHA-256 and 323 00:20:58,498 --> 00:21:04,658 signatures. SHA-256, which is for proof of work, you know, the mining aspect, is highly resilient 324 00:21:04,658 --> 00:21:12,099 and is likely not going to get cracked by AI because the math is the math of the, it's just 325 00:21:12,099 --> 00:21:18,778 the physics. Of course, there is the actual quantum risk to Bitcoin, which is the elliptic 326 00:21:18,778 --> 00:21:24,898 curve signatures via Shor's algorithm on exposed public keys, which is the bit where he's kind of 327 00:21:24,898 --> 00:21:28,839 confused and maybe he's thinking about Satoshi's coins, I think. I'm trying to parse it, but I think 328 00:21:28,839 --> 00:21:33,019 that's how he gets to Satoshi's coins are going to get stolen or hacked or whatever he said. 329 00:21:33,478 --> 00:21:38,678 And he equates the theft of Satoshi's coins. He's making some leaps here. He equates the 330 00:21:38,678 --> 00:21:44,359 theft of Satoshi's coins with the collapse of the Bitcoin network. That's that's ridiculous. 331 00:21:44,879 --> 00:21:48,418 First of all, I've said it before. I ask you to ask yourself the same question. 332 00:21:48,539 --> 00:21:54,458 If Satoshi's coins came up for sale for five dollars, right, if the price of Bitcoin crashed 333 00:21:54,458 --> 00:21:58,238 because everybody lost faith and so they're trading it like a dollar, five dollars, 334 00:21:58,478 --> 00:22:03,178

would you not spend a few hundred dollars to buy some Satoshi coins? I know there's 335 00:22:03,178 --> 00:22:07,258 I know they're supposed to be. I know they're not supposed to be special, but they're, you know, 336 00:22:07,258 --> 00:22:14,278 satoshi's coins i mean anyways i my point is there would be a rabid market to buy bitcoin at that 337 00:22:14,278 --> 00:22:20,158 price it just simply would become a redistribution it isn't a fundamental flaw in the network it 338 00:22:20,158 --> 00:22:24,738 would become a redistribution of those early coins and maybe something kind of beautiful in a way 339 00:22:24,738 --> 00:22:31,638 if satoshi has passed you know he has kind of given them to the network by reducing the supply 340 00:22:31,638 --> 00:22:36,658 but you know have at it we just got a bunch of new coins it's the only way you're ever going to 341 00:22:36,658 --> 00:22:41,138 get more coins. But I think that's how he gets there. And I just think it's other people said 342 00:22:41,138 --> 00:22:47,518 that it's silly. The criticism that I think sticks the most is probably worth addressing. 343 00:22:47,518 --> 00:22:52,458 And we're going to talk more about this in the quantum section in the updates. But it's it's 344 00:22:52,458 --> 00:22:57,819 possible to upgrade Bitcoin. It's not always easy. It's made up of individuals of incentives. 345 00:22:57,978 --> 00:23:02,698 But we'll get to that. The one I want to come to now is because this is what sparked this 346 00:23:02,698 --> 00:23:10,119 conversation is AI hacking is going to make this really easy because of recursive self-improvement. 347 00:23:10,619 --> 00:23:15,859 That doesn't break fundamental cryptographic assumptions. And so saying it goes to zero 348 00:23:15,859 --> 00:23:21,839 because of that is an extreme crazy loop, a leap, not a recursive loop. It's a crazy leap. 349 00:23:22,198 --> 00:23:26,619 Maybe Chamath should talk to his good old buddy Elon on how the fundamentals of maths work. 350 00:23:26,619 --> 00:23:28,918 You can also cryptographically sign things. 351 00:23:29,938 --> 00:23:41,099 Like, you know, mathematically, we don't see any way, for example, for AI to subvert the fundamentals of mathematics and say, figure out how to hash Bitcoin. 352 00:23:41,878 --> 00:23:44,319 AI can't defy fundamental math. 353 00:23:45,218 --> 00:23:45,378 Yeah. 354 00:23:45,378 --> 00:23:53,858 So we can improve the efficiency of Bitcoin hashing algorithms in the silicon, but not fundamentally crack it. 355 00:23:53,859 --> 00:24:16,539 So, you know, I guess in a way it's our advantage that there's people on the other side of this trade, right? If there weren't people like Chamath making these mistakes, Bitcoin would probably be worth more than $80,000. And the people who do understand, the people who are on the other side of what you might call the panic trade, they continue to build either their stash or services. And even Coinbase is one of them. 356 00:24:16,539

--> 00:24:44,339 And they're making a pivot that I kind of have been feeling coming for a while now. And this is Brett Chappal. And I don't know if I'm saying that right, but he's on Coinbase. He's like a co-CEO of their institutional stuff. And he was on BMTV. But he's talking about a pivot that Coinbase is making in the market that I think we're all going to look back at as an obvious change and probably one that's going to make them a much bigger player in Bitcoin and a lot more money. 357 00:24:44,339 --> 00:25:04,378 And you mentioned the second wave of institutional capital coming to Bitcoin. Do you expect that wave to be mostly driven by, you know, additional allocations of people who already have some exposure to Bitcoin, maybe just increasing that percentage? Or do you think the bigger opportunity for Bitcoin might be from net new market entrance? 358 00:25:04,378 --> 00:25:11,458 I think it's definitely the latter. I mean, people that have gone into Bitcoin and they've already 359 00:25:11,458 --> 00:25:15,799 sort of had this sort of come back to earth moment when we hit like 120s and came back to 360 00:25:15,799 --> 00:25:21,698 80s, but I'm still seeing follow on, you know, allocations to the space. But certainly the big 361 00:25:21,698 --> 00:25:27,099 upside is the next chapter, the chapter that we're in now. And so that's where, you know, early, 362 00:25:27,099 --> 00:25:34,039 early in the first phase, you know, venture funds, macro funds, private clients, 363 00:25:34,378 --> 00:25:40,618 than ETFs. So, ETS was the moment that unlocked the US RAA space. And now we're having all 364 00:25:40,618 --> 00:25:47,039 these integrations. And so maybe a not so well understood part of our business is Coinbase 365 00:25:47,039 --> 00:26:00,948 infrastructure So that probably deserves a quick word So that everything that we built that facilitates anyone to buy directly So to buy store sell finance stake do all the things you want to be able to do with crypto We actually 366 00:26:00,948 --> 00:26:06,928 we're having our Amazon to AWS pivot moment. And we're actually now externalizing. Internally, 367 00:26:06,988 --> 00:26:12,848 we call it CDP, Coinbase Developer Platform. Externally, we're calling it Coinbase Infrastructure. 368 00:26:13,748 --> 00:26:24,288 And so that's where players like Amazon and JP Morgan and Citibank and others are able to actually just use the infrastructure we've built to power their own clients' journeys. 369 00:26:24,908 --> 00:26:31,908 So that's really the thing about as like the indirect acquisition of existing clients that are on all of TradFi's platforms. 370 00:26:32,528 --> 00:26:35,808 And so in that moment, they're going to be able to like PNC, for example. 371 00:26:35,808 --> 00:26:41,668 You can now remain a PNC client and you can actually buy Bitcoin on the PNC app. 372 00:26:41,668 --> 00:26:44,788 And behind it, it's Coinbase's infrastructure that's powering that journey. 373 00:26:45,408 -->

00:26:50,848 So if I can do that with hundreds and then thousands of clients, then we've activated 374 00:26:50,848 --> 00:26:56,588 the whole U.S. in order to facilitate everyone's ability to actually buy Bitcoin and other 375 00:26:56,588 --> 00:26:57,208 crypto assets. 376 00:26:57,728 --> 00:26:58,548 We'll see how far they get. 377 00:26:58,668 --> 00:27:04,688 But the AWS aspect of it makes a lot of sense because Citi and JP Morgan and PNC don't want 378 00:27:04,688 --> 00:27:06,588 to have to have all of those services themselves. 379 00:27:07,048 --> 00:27:08,588 Coinbase is already a player in this market. 380 00:27:08,588 --> 00:27:11,308 Some of them probably own equity in Coinbase. 381 00:27:11,748 --> 00:27:13,308 There's always that aspect of it. 382 00:27:13,528 --> 00:27:17,168 It does seem like the right time to be getting this kind of stuff wired up. 383 00:27:17,628 --> 00:27:22,668 I mean, just as we kind of start to clear the four-year cycle, we'll get on the other side of the midterms. 384 00:27:23,348 --> 00:27:29,228 The ongoing debasement as policy seems to be obvious to even the most basic economic wonks now. 385 00:27:29,568 --> 00:27:32,488 And the biggest names in the world are getting behind Bitcoin. 386 00:27:32,488 --> 00:27:40,188 CME Group, the world's largest derivatives exchange, says Bitcoin functions primarily as a decentralized store of value. 387 00:27:40,568 --> 00:27:48,768 In an article on its Bitcoin ratio futures, CME says the asset is maturing along distinct economic, functional and regulatory paths. 388 00:27:48,948 --> 00:27:50,428 Stay a while and listen. 389 00:27:50,828 --> 00:27:54,668 All right. So let me tell you what I think is kind of changing here as an old timer. 390 00:27:54,668 --> 00:28:13,568 One of the things that's always failed with Bitcoin adoption at the institutional level in the past is it was always started either as an executive initiative to be hip and ride the trend waves or a radical group or person who worked inside that company, who's probably now later left and now does their own thing. 391 00:28:13,868 --> 00:28:19,528 And there was never really buy-off inside the institution at the regular people level. 392 00:28:19,848 --> 00:28:22,388 In fact, I would say there was the opposite of buy-off. 393 00:28:22,388 --> 00:28:26,548 what's happened in the last few years. And I think it's because of the obviousness of the 394 00:28:26,548 --> 00:28:31,688 debasement trade and the obviousness that this thing isn't just going away. There's been a 395 00:28:31,688 --> 00:28:38,008 changing of minds at the individual level inside these large financial institutions. And the reason 396 00:28:38,008 --> 00:28:42,708 why I say that is because I kind of monitor some of these, not all, but I monitor some of these 397 00:28:42,708 --> 00:28:49,068 economic podcasts where they bring these folks who are just employees of like, say, for example, 398 00:28:49,068 --> 00:28:53,508 J.P. Morgan

or Fidelity or Charles Schwab. 399 00:28:53,568 --> 00:28:56,688 They just come on these podcasts and they kind of share their thoughts. 400 00:28:56,768 --> 00:28:58,728 These are the individuals working at the corporations. 401 00:28:59,628 --> 00:29:03,948 And this, I'm going to play a clip of Juran Timmer, probably getting that wrong as well. 402 00:29:04,348 --> 00:29:07,648 This is his personal view as Fidelity's macro director. 403 00:29:07,908 --> 00:29:09,908 And he was on the Compound and Friends podcast. 404 00:29:10,048 --> 00:29:15,208 If you listen, what you're about to hear is the old guard figuring it out. 405 00:29:15,208 --> 00:29:19,908 When you price Bitcoin in terms of gold, it's a really beautiful pattern. 406 00:29:20,068 --> 00:29:23,468 So I think gold's, I think Bitcoin's going to, I think they're both going to go up and 407 00:29:23,468 --> 00:29:27,268 Bitcoin's going to go up more, even though we're still kind of looking for a narrative. 408 00:29:27,408 --> 00:29:31,888 But as you know, when things move without a narrative, you always have to pay attention 409 00:29:31,888 --> 00:29:33,888 because that's, there's something going on. 410 00:29:34,008 --> 00:29:35,028 We just don't see it yet. 411 00:29:35,308 --> 00:29:41,408 Now that Bitcoin, in my view, has done a full winter, a mild winter, but even a year ago 412 00:29:41,408 --> 00:29:43,388 when it broke that trend line. 413 00:29:43,868 --> 00:29:46,088 And it's interesting, Bitcoin, as chaotic as it looks, 414 00:29:46,308 --> 00:29:48,868 when you put both time and price on a log scale, 415 00:29:49,408 --> 00:29:51,268 it's like a beautiful harmonic picture 416 00:29:51,268 --> 00:29:52,608 based on the power law. 417 00:29:52,828 --> 00:29:56,988 And every wave up and down fits a harmonic pattern. 418 00:29:57,228 --> 00:29:59,268 And that peak in 2025. 419 00:30:00,008 --> 00:30:02,628 And so at that point, based on trend lines. 420 00:30:02,628 --> 00:30:05,988 These guys love charts and trend lines, you guys. 421 00:30:06,068 --> 00:30:06,748 They love them. 422 00:30:07,048 --> 00:30:08,088 Peak in 2025. 423 00:30:08,088 --> 00:30:17,968 And so at that point, based on trend lines and knowing that every winter gets smaller, I'm like, you know, 60K is a level that I'm going to buy. 424 00:30:18,168 --> 00:30:19,148 And it went to 58. 425 00:30:19,548 --> 00:30:20,908 And not to toot my own. 426 00:30:21,028 --> 00:30:23,988 The Bitcoin winters are shrinking in length. 427 00:30:24,108 --> 00:30:25,388 Yeah, but so we hit 60. 428 00:30:25,388 --> 00:30:25,928 And depth. 429 00:30:26,468 --> 00:30:26,908 Yes. 430 00:30:27,428 --> 00:30:28,648 It's a maturing asset, right? 431 00:30:28,708 --> 00:30:31,568 So it's going to moon less and it's going to swoon less. 432 00:30:31,668 --> 00:30:33,168 And that's what maturing assets do. 433 00:30:33,168 --> 00:30:37,448 And then as recently as maybe a month or two ago, it was still at 60. 434 00:30:37,448 --> 00:30:40,128 And I'm like, OK, now I'm really going to pay attention. 435 00:30:40,308 --> 00:30:42,048 And then it broke above 80. 436 00:30:42,128 --> 00:30:43,468 That confirmed a double bottom. 437 00:30:44,148 --> 00:30:44,568 Listen to this guy. 438 00:30:44,648 --> 00:30:53,648 However he gets there, if he's got to sniff charts, if that's what it takes for him to get there, I'm impressed with the mental leap that they are making inside the institution. 439 00:30:54,208 --> 00:30:55,368 I think it makes a difference. 440 00:30:55,488 --> 00:30:59,808 There is one cloud hanging over all of their heads. 441 00:31:00,348 --> 00:31:01,948 So I want you to boost in. 442 00:31:03,168 --> 00:31:07,268 And tell me, are you worried about the quantum threat? 443 00:31:07,448 --> 00:31:10,968 I don't mean actually. 444 00:31:11,688 --> 00:31:15,468 Are you worried about it being negative on price action? 445 00:31:15,648 --> 00:31:18,168 Are you worried about people freaking out about the quantum threat? 446 00:31:18,548 --> 00:31:20,588 So as a result, here's the question, I suppose. 447 00:31:21,028 --> 00:31:21,728 Are you worried? 448 00:31:21,868 --> 00:31:25,488 And do you think Bitcoin should just start addressing it now, sooner than later? 449 00:31:26,028 --> 00:31:26,928 Why or why not? 450 00:31:27,388 --> 00:31:31,928 And stay tuned after the boost because I do have a big update on quantum risks. 451 00:31:35,228 --> 00:31:36,768 And there is work underway. 452 00:31:37,448 --> 00:31:41,468 So stay tuned. We'll have more on that. And I do want you to boost in your thoughts on that. 453 00:31:41,528 --> 00:31:45,168 So the question really is, is are you worried about it? Not just from a tech standpoint, 454 00:31:45,168 --> 00:31:48,508 but are you worried about it from it freaking new investors out? And do you think we should 455 00:31:48,508 --> 00:31:52,308 do something about that now? Why or why not? You know, it's kind of convoluted. Not my best 456 00:31:52,308 --> 00:31:56,528 question. I really think about it, but I do want to know. Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com. 457 00:32:07,448 --> 00:32:28,968 I got links in the show notes so you can support the show just by doing what you do while you stack sats with River, the Bitcoin well, or Salt, Strike, whatever your focus might be. 458 00:32:29,068 --> 00:32:29,828 Maybe you want lending. 459 00:32:29,988 --> 00:32:31,068 Maybe you want something else. 460 00:32:31,128 --> 00:32:34,628 I got links in the show notes if you want to spend the Bitcoin company all over Lightning. 461 00:32:34,808 --> 00:32:35,508 It's great. 462 00:32:35,508 --> 00:32:37,128 it has been 463 00:32:37,128 --> 00:32:40,188 and it will always be a list of companies 464 00:32:40,188 --> 00:32:41,908 that I don't have a direct relationship with 465 00:32:41,908 --> 00:32:43,908 but ones I use and if I don't like them anymore 466 00:32:43,908 --> 00:32:45,888 like Fold, I take them off the list 467 00:32:45,888 -->

00:32:47,268 keep you updated 468 00:32:47,268 --> 00:32:49,828 keep you updated, you can support the show 469 00:32:49,828 --> 00:32:51,908 just by doing what you do by clicking those links before you go 470 00:32:51,908 --> 00:32:53,968 do one of those things, I appreciate you 471 00:33:05,508 --> 00:33:08,748 Four score and seven boosts to go. 472 00:33:08,808 --> 00:33:11,328 We do have some boosts to get to, so let's do it, 473 00:33:11,328 --> 00:33:17,188 because Satsquatch is kicking us off as our baller booster with 93,100 satushers. 474 00:33:17,268 --> 00:33:18,608 Hey, rich lobster! 475 00:33:24,768 --> 00:33:26,248 Chris, I listen on Castamantic. 476 00:33:26,428 --> 00:33:28,208 Something is going on there with your splash page, 477 00:33:28,248 --> 00:33:32,228 unless you intentionally added a bunch of strange code instead of English in the subtext. 478 00:33:32,948 --> 00:33:34,868 I'm bullish as the Bitcoin pump forever bullish. 479 00:33:34,868 --> 00:33:37,168 maybe not as bullish as Leon Wancombe 480 00:33:37,168 --> 00:33:39,228 who says it'll be 100 trillion 481 00:33:39,228 --> 00:33:40,948 asset. You know I was looking for my phone sorry 482 00:33:40,948 --> 00:33:43,068 I was distracted there. I listen in Cast-O-Matic 483 00:33:43,068 --> 00:33:45,168 and I review and I don't know what you're saying 484 00:33:45,168 --> 00:33:47,028 I'll have to double check on that 485 00:33:47,028 --> 00:33:49,068 It gets rendered as HTML 486 00:33:49,068 --> 00:33:50,888 so as long as Cast-O-Matic which it should be 487 00:33:50,888 --> 00:33:52,788 and also by the way brand new version of Cast-O-Matic 488 00:33:52,788 --> 00:33:55,048 came out today. So I'll do an update and I'll check 489 00:33:55,048 --> 00:33:57,028 on that. Thanks for the heads up stats. I do 490 00:33:57,028 --> 00:33:58,848 appreciate the squanching around 491 00:33:58,848 --> 00:34:00,628 and letting me know about problems. It's good to know 492 00:34:00,628 --> 00:34:02,828 I can't have eyes everywhere even though I thought I was 493 00:34:02,828 --> 00:34:04,848 checking. At least not yet 494 00:34:04,848 --> 00:34:08,048 BK2, BK2 is here 495 00:34:08,048 --> 00:34:11,368 with 77,777 Satoshis. 496 00:34:11,448 --> 00:34:13,968 I hoard that which your kind covet. 497 00:34:13,988 --> 00:34:15,388 Covenant hot with the boost. 498 00:34:15,548 --> 00:34:17,468 Out on Fall Colors Tour of the Northwest, 499 00:34:18,028 --> 00:34:20,528 of the Northeast US for the last couple of weeks. 500 00:34:20,688 --> 00:34:22,248 Wow, what a great thing to do. 501 00:34:22,688 --> 00:34:24,968 Rod dogged 4,700 miles, right? 502 00:34:25,108 --> 00:34:25,828 You gotta think. 503 00:34:26,628 --> 00:34:27,128 You gotta think. 504 00:34:27,648 --> 00:34:28,288 So catching up. 505 00:34:28,408 --> 00:34:29,288 Disappointed in fold. 506 00:34:29,388 --> 00:34:31,888 Really love the passive stacking from the credit card. 507 00:34:31,888 --> 00:34:33,168 But with this whole reserve... 508 00:34:33,182 --> 00:34:38,402 portion. Yikes. Any good Bitcoin specific rewards cards? Is there a tax advantage to credit card 509 00:34:38,402 --> 00:34:42,142 rewards? You know, I have thought that that could be the truth about credit card rewards. 510 00:34:42,942 --> 00:34:47,622 They may be. I don't know. That's something definitely to look into. To me, to my eyes, 511 00:34:47,702 --> 00:34:52,842 the Gemini credit card is the best one to go for because the Coinbase card can offer you more, 512 00:34:52,922 --> 00:34:57,902 but you have to store a bunch of Bitcoin with Coinbase. Then there's the Fold card. They still 513 00:34:57,902 --> 00:35:02,962 do offer a credit card, which is probably going to be fine. It just doesn't quite have the same 514 00:35:02,962 --> 00:35:05,002 rewards going to be more like 1.5%. 515 00:35:05,002 --> 00:35:06,922 So it's hard to beat the Gemini card, 516 00:35:07,262 --> 00:35:09,002 I think, unfortunately, because it's 517 00:35:09,002 --> 00:35:10,342 not like I'm a huge fan of Gemini. 518 00:35:10,822 --> 00:35:13,002 But I have had one for a while and used 519 00:35:13,002 --> 00:35:14,662 it on and off for some, you know, purchases. 520 00:35:14,942 --> 00:35:16,382 So it's worked for me. 521 00:35:16,922 --> 00:35:18,502 I don't use it as my daily driver, though. 522 00:35:19,162 --> 00:35:20,962 Maybe I will. I do after I am still 523 00:35:20,962 --> 00:35:22,382 in the process of sorting this out. 524 00:35:22,842 --> 00:35:24,862 So maybe I'll give you guys an update on what 525 00:35:24,862 --> 00:35:26,342 my pipeline is when I'm finally done. 526 00:35:27,182 --> 00:35:29,202 Paltoon comes in with 50,000 527 00:35:29,202 --> 00:35:30,022 Satoshis. 528 00:35:31,022 --> 00:35:32,422 Fun will now commence. 529 00:35:32,422 --> 00:35:34,802 Long time listener, first time booster. 530 00:35:35,042 --> 00:35:35,402 Yes. 531 00:35:35,502 --> 00:35:36,782 That's not possible. 532 00:35:36,922 --> 00:35:37,962 Nothing can do that. 533 00:35:38,602 --> 00:35:44,682 I'd love to be able to boost TWIB via Bolt 12, reoccurring payment, payment flow where you or address TWIB at Jupyter Broadcasting with my Phoenix wall. 534 00:35:44,842 --> 00:35:45,362 I know. 535 00:35:47,062 --> 00:35:51,062 Would integration of Bolt 12 notes with your boost system be hard using Phoenix T? 536 00:35:51,642 --> 00:35:54,282 So there's a couple of things holding up Bolt 12. 537 00:35:54,282 --> 00:36:00,442 You know, Paul, Bolt 12 would have, would have, man, if podcasting 2.0 could have just 538 00:36:00,442 --> 00:36:04,002 used Bolt 12, we would have had, we would have bypassed so many problems. 539 00:36:04,622 --> 00:36:05,582 So I am watching it. 540 00:36:05,662 --> 00:36:08,662 There is a couple of dependencies still because I want to maintain some compatibility. 541 00:36:09,382 --> 00:36:13,042 But as soon as I can, you'll probably be the first to notice, I bet. 542 00:36:13,142 --> 00:36:14,302

Thank you very much for the boost. 543 00:36:14,942 --> 00:36:18,802 Derivation Dingus is here with 22,222 Satoshis McDuck boost. 544 00:36:18,942 --> 00:36:21,122 Things are looking up for old McDuck. 545 00:36:21,642 --> 00:36:23,842 I've been super busy lately, but I never miss an episode. 546 00:36:24,062 --> 00:36:24,722 Thanks for the value. 547 00:36:24,842 --> 00:36:25,802 Well, thank you, Derivation. 548 00:36:26,462 --> 00:36:28,002 I really, really appreciate that. 549 00:36:28,442 --> 00:36:30,642 Obi's here with 21,000 sats. 550 00:36:30,822 --> 00:36:33,242 It's a long history of 21 gigawatts. 551 00:36:33,422 --> 00:36:34,362 Cold open was awesome. 552 00:36:34,602 --> 00:36:35,782 Made me chuckle. 553 00:36:36,522 --> 00:36:36,842 All right. 554 00:36:37,602 --> 00:36:37,942 All right. 555 00:36:38,562 --> 00:36:40,762 Yeah, I had our, you know, let me tell you something. 556 00:36:41,922 --> 00:36:43,582 Last week's episode was cursed. 557 00:36:44,242 --> 00:36:44,782 All right? 558 00:36:44,882 --> 00:36:46,062 I don't even want to talk about it. 559 00:36:46,162 --> 00:36:47,822 I was going to talk, I don't even want to talk about it. 560 00:36:48,622 --> 00:36:49,822 There's systems in place. 561 00:36:50,562 --> 00:36:51,722 Should have caught these things. 562 00:36:52,782 --> 00:36:53,542 Things happened. 563 00:36:53,842 --> 00:36:55,682 new systems are in place. 564 00:36:56,202 --> 00:36:57,222 That's what I'm saying. 565 00:36:57,622 --> 00:36:58,902 That is what I am saying. 566 00:36:59,042 --> 00:36:59,622 You know what I mean? 567 00:37:00,162 --> 00:37:00,742 Thanks, Opie. 568 00:37:01,562 --> 00:37:05,102 Cypher Citizens here with 12,345 sats, 569 00:37:05,182 --> 00:37:05,862 space balls boost. 570 00:37:06,022 --> 00:37:10,142 So the combination is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 571 00:37:10,362 --> 00:37:12,282 And so it's bullish in the long term. 572 00:37:12,542 --> 00:37:12,862 Yes. 573 00:37:13,002 --> 00:37:13,582 That's amazing. 574 00:37:13,682 --> 00:37:15,222 I've got the same combination on my luggage. 575 00:37:15,282 --> 00:37:16,442 That makes sense to me, buddy. 576 00:37:16,502 --> 00:37:17,262 Makes sense to me. 577 00:37:17,862 --> 00:37:19,862 Yukon Cornelius is here with 5,000 sats. 578 00:37:23,842 --> 00:37:41,642 I think if I already had most of my liquid net worth infidelity or Schwab account and I could consolidate a million dollars worth of Bitcoin, removing the hardware wallet risk, multi-sig complication, and can do with that creating a taxable event and get access to tradify rates instead of the expense of Bitcoin-backed loans, yeah, I'd probably take that trade. 579 00:37:42,642 --> 00:37:43,922 Yeah, I know, right, Yukon? 580 00:37:44,222 --> 00:37:45,302 You can see where their head's at. 581 00:37:45,582 --> 00:37:48,882 I think it makes sense if you're someone looking to add Bitcoin to a dollar-denominated portfolio. 582 00:37:49,662 --> 00:37:50,422 Yes, right. 583 00:37:50,582 --> 00:37:52,382 That's what they ultimately want to exit in is dollars. 584 00:37:52,862 --> 00:37:53,822 Someone that doesn't see that 585 00:37:53,822 --> 00:37:55,342 as a nation state risk associated with it. 586 00:37:55,382 --> 00:37:55,642 Exactly. 587 00:37:55,862 --> 00:37:57,922 Now, that's what I've like in 20 years, 588 00:37:57,942 --> 00:37:59,142 am I going to want to take out dollars? 589 00:38:00,302 --> 00:38:01,282 Maybe at that point, 590 00:38:01,322 --> 00:38:02,902 but I'm not going to want to take out dollars now 591 00:38:02,902 --> 00:38:03,822 and use them in 20 years. 592 00:38:03,902 --> 00:38:05,322 You know, I'm going to want to keep it in Bitcoin 593 00:38:05,322 --> 00:38:05,862 in the meantime. 594 00:38:06,482 --> 00:38:07,702 So I'm right there with you. 595 00:38:07,742 --> 00:38:08,702 I think I can see where they're at, 596 00:38:08,762 --> 00:38:11,242 but they're already so cash rich. 597 00:38:12,042 --> 00:38:13,442 They don't have to worry about it. 598 00:38:14,062 --> 00:38:15,682 They literally are taken care of. 599 00:38:15,782 --> 00:38:16,602 They do not have to. 600 00:38:16,662 --> 00:38:17,502 They can afford it. 601 00:38:17,582 --> 00:38:18,262 They can afford it. 602 00:38:18,262 --> 00:38:19,462 That's truly what it is. 603 00:38:19,662 --> 00:38:20,122 Thanks, Yukon. 604 00:38:20,702 --> 00:38:22,462 Anonymous is here with a Spaceballs boost. 605 00:38:22,542 --> 00:38:25,482 We're going to have to go right to ludicrous speed. 606 00:38:25,662 --> 00:38:29,402 Plus one for the Seed Signer, in particular the one with the smart card hat, 607 00:38:29,482 --> 00:38:30,822 a.k.a. the Seed Signer shield. 608 00:38:31,262 --> 00:38:33,322 I wish I had done this from day one. 609 00:38:33,682 --> 00:38:36,642 Can send more details if you want, e.g. I had to have the hat fabricated 610 00:38:36,642 --> 00:38:38,542 from a PCB way directly to availability. 611 00:38:39,222 --> 00:38:40,182 Claude on the assist. 612 00:38:40,462 --> 00:38:43,162 You know, Anonymous, I would love more on the Seed Signer. 613 00:38:44,362 --> 00:38:47,842 Something in me, some old man aspect of me makes me a little cautious, 614 00:38:48,022 --> 00:38:49,202 but I am not opposed to learning. 615 00:38:49,202 --> 00:38:50,682 and changing my opinion. 616 00:38:50,902 --> 00:38:52,282 So I would love to know more 617 00:38:52,282 --> 00:38:54,242 because I think there does need to be 618 00:38:54,242 --> 00:38:56,082 a hardware wallet solution 619 00:38:56,082 --> 00:38:58,042 for people at every level. 620 00:38:58,622 --> 00:38:59,342 So please do. 621 00:39:00,382 --> 00:39:02,242 Nakamoto 6102 is here. 622 00:39:02,542 --> 00:39:04,362 Oh my God, this drawer is filled with brooklots. 623 00:39:04,382 --> 00:39:05,742 He says he's bullish AF. 624 00:39:05,922 --> 00:39:06,522 Thanks for the value. 625 00:39:06,622 --> 00:39:07,242 Thanks, Nakamoto. 626 00:39:07,422 --> 00:39:08,082 Appreciate you. 627 00:39:08,542 -->

00:39:09,882 Gene Bean's here with a row of ducks. 628 00:39:11,042 --> 00:39:12,562 Yay for liquid working again. 629 00:39:12,702 --> 00:39:12,982 Yeah. 630 00:39:13,442 --> 00:39:16,962 And I guess there's been a slight change 631 00:39:16,962 --> 00:39:18,562 in the missing Bitcoin. 632 00:39:18,562 --> 00:39:20,042 a little bit was sent back. 633 00:39:20,262 --> 00:39:21,242 There's something going on. 634 00:39:21,282 --> 00:39:22,062 They're talking tough. 635 00:39:22,562 --> 00:39:25,182 Either way, it does seem like sideswap IO 636 00:39:25,182 --> 00:39:26,522 or whatever it is, whatever the, 637 00:39:26,602 --> 00:39:27,962 whatever it seems like they're swapping. 638 00:39:28,422 --> 00:39:30,542 So, you know, I think their intention 639 00:39:30,542 --> 00:39:31,522 is to try to make this smooth 640 00:39:31,522 --> 00:39:32,642 because they intend to continue 641 00:39:32,642 --> 00:39:34,022 to use the liquid network for themselves. 642 00:39:34,842 --> 00:39:36,482 It's interesting that there hasn't been 643 00:39:36,482 --> 00:39:39,362 this massive depegging event. 644 00:39:40,302 --> 00:39:41,162 It's really not. 645 00:39:41,422 --> 00:39:43,362 I mean, I think now it's been a couple of, 646 00:39:43,502 --> 00:39:45,042 I've made three Bitcoin worth or something. 647 00:39:45,122 --> 00:39:46,422 It's been an amount, but I mean, 648 00:39:47,062 --> 00:39:48,322 I don't even think it's been three actually. 649 00:39:48,562 --> 00:39:50,902 I don't know, but it hasn't been like this bank run. 650 00:39:51,062 --> 00:39:52,322 I guess that's what I'm trying to say. 651 00:39:52,482 --> 00:39:53,022 Thanks, Gene Bean. 652 00:39:53,322 --> 00:39:54,002 Appreciate you. 653 00:39:54,542 --> 00:39:56,882 Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee is here with 10,000 sets. 654 00:39:57,022 --> 00:39:58,722 It's over 9,000! 655 00:39:59,522 --> 00:40:01,922 Deep thoughts on a road trip are a real thing, right? 656 00:40:02,642 --> 00:40:05,762 Deep thoughts on a road trip while talking to your agent will make you broke, 657 00:40:05,842 --> 00:40:08,882 spending all your money on tokens, but at least you can capture your ideas 658 00:40:08,882 --> 00:40:10,922 and you can move more quickly from ideas to development. 659 00:40:11,122 --> 00:40:12,002 Stay safe on the road, Chris. 660 00:40:12,542 --> 00:40:16,822 I have to admit, a couple of times I've tried this and it is very, very useful. 661 00:40:17,602 --> 00:40:18,322 Very useful. 662 00:40:18,322 --> 00:40:21,722 I think a good voice back and forth with these agents is going to be important. 663 00:40:22,142 --> 00:40:22,662 I really do. 664 00:40:23,122 --> 00:40:24,342 Thanks, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee. 665 00:40:24,442 --> 00:40:25,142 Appreciate you. 666 00:40:25,602 --> 00:40:27,282 Hey, Kiwi Bitcoin guides here. 667 00:40:27,422 --> 00:40:30,142 4,567 satoshis. 668 00:40:31,402 --> 00:40:32,402 Another great show, Chris. 669 00:40:32,622 --> 00:40:33,742 Thanks for keeping it rolling. 670 00:40:34,122 --> 00:40:35,342 It's funny what you said about Umbral. 671 00:40:35,442 --> 00:40:39,622 Now that I run two nodes on Linux without any package support, I'm kind of addicted to it 672 00:40:39,622 --> 00:40:41,722 and wouldn't want to run a node any other way. 673 00:40:42,082 --> 00:40:45,282 I like knowing exactly where I'm running and being in control of the updates myself. 674 00:40:45,282 --> 00:40:51,302 The unexpected gift for me from Bitcoin was being introduced to the FOSS world, and now I'm moving my whole digital life to it. 675 00:40:51,682 --> 00:40:52,982 Oh, I love that Kiwi. 676 00:40:53,782 --> 00:40:58,562 Can I recommend you go through Linux Unplugged, back catalog, and self-hosted to get some ideas? 677 00:40:59,402 --> 00:41:03,542 You know, often, like, Jellyfin can be quite the self-hosting gateway drug. 678 00:41:04,042 --> 00:41:04,982 Enjoy and keep me posted. 679 00:41:05,962 --> 00:41:10,062 Alan N. is here with, that's probably not right, 4,447 sats. 680 00:41:10,222 --> 00:41:11,922 I feel like that's like an airplane boost. 681 00:41:12,022 --> 00:41:14,062 Yeah, I got answers, and I want some questions. 682 00:41:14,062 --> 00:41:14,842 But it's just value. 683 00:41:15,162 --> 00:41:16,022 Thank you very much. 684 00:41:16,202 --> 00:41:16,822 Appreciate it, Alan. 685 00:41:17,562 --> 00:41:19,282 Paranoid Coders here with 2,000 sats. 686 00:41:19,322 --> 00:41:20,662 Coming in hot with the booth. 687 00:41:20,722 --> 00:41:21,602 No messages, value. 688 00:41:21,682 --> 00:41:22,342 Thank you very much. 689 00:41:22,422 --> 00:41:24,062 And Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks. 690 00:41:24,942 --> 00:41:27,682 I think Bitcoin could be sitting at 300K in 2032, 691 00:41:27,842 --> 00:41:29,922 but it's likely getting a higher price between now and then. 692 00:41:30,042 --> 00:41:31,082 Ha, I see what you did there. 693 00:41:31,082 --> 00:41:31,422 You're right. 694 00:41:31,882 --> 00:41:35,202 It'll hit 600,000 and fall back to 300,000. 695 00:41:35,202 --> 00:41:37,602 And everybody will freak out that it's lost so much value. 696 00:41:37,742 --> 00:41:39,102 You are absolutely right, Ace. 697 00:41:39,302 --> 00:41:40,422 I can see it now. 698 00:41:40,962 --> 00:41:42,342 JPEG's here with a row of ducks. 699 00:41:43,202 --> 00:41:44,702 No message, just value. 700 00:41:44,842 --> 00:41:45,742 Thank you very much. 701 00:41:45,802 --> 00:41:46,582 Appreciate you. 702 00:41:47,062 --> 00:41:50,082 And we have user 54 here with 5,000 sats. 703 00:41:50,142 --> 00:41:51,462 The traders love the vol. 704 00:41:51,662 --> 00:41:52,722 And he says pew, pew, pew. 705 00:41:52,802 --> 00:41:53,342 Pew, pew, pew. 706 00:41:53,542 --> 00:41:55,422 Shooting sats at you through a series of tubes. 707 00:41:55,522 --> 00:41:56,382 Thank you, user 54. 708 00:41:56,582 --> 00:41:57,502 Isn't it amazing? 709 00:41:57,622 --> 00:42:00,002 It's a series of peer-to-peer tubes at that. 710

00:42:01,122 --> 00:42:04,462 North Lake Odell is here with 5,678. 711 00:42:04,662 --> 00:42:05,722 Well, I'll be dipped. 712 00:42:05,902 --> 00:42:06,662 He says boost. 713 00:42:06,802 --> 00:42:07,722 Well, thank you very much. 714 00:42:08,042 --> 00:42:08,442 Boost. 715 00:42:09,002 --> 00:42:09,702 Appreciate you. 716 00:42:10,522 --> 00:42:10,922 Sickander? 717 00:42:11,122 --> 00:42:11,382 No. 718 00:42:11,382 --> 00:42:12,942 S-I-K-A-N-D-E 719 00:42:12,942 --> 00:42:14,722 S-I-K-A-N-D-E 720 00:42:14,722 --> 00:42:15,382 S-I-K-A-N-D-E 721 00:42:15,382 --> 00:42:16,042 I bet you that's it 722 00:42:16,042 --> 00:42:18,082 is here with $20 in fiat. 723 00:42:18,262 --> 00:42:18,942 Oh my god 724 00:42:18,942 --> 00:42:20,462 this drawer is filled with fruit loops. 725 00:42:21,342 --> 00:42:23,402 Just the days left for eCash man 726 00:42:23,402 --> 00:42:26,322 just days left for the eCash main chain fork. 727 00:42:26,782 --> 00:42:28,242 The Thunder and Z-Side side chains 728 00:42:28,242 --> 00:42:29,342 should launch at the fork 729 00:42:29,342 --> 00:42:30,682 so it's going to be really interesting 730 00:42:30,682 --> 00:42:31,962 to see how everything plays out. 731 00:42:32,342 --> 00:42:33,642 Anyone interested in splitting their coins 732 00:42:33,642 --> 00:42:34,262 after the fork 733 00:42:34,262 --> 00:42:36,902 should read eCash.com slash split. 734 00:42:37,282 --> 00:42:38,582 Any chance of getting Bitcoin Dad 735 00:42:38,582 --> 00:42:40,282 or Paul Strzok back on the pod 736 00:42:40,282 --> 00:42:41,662 to talk about the eCash fork. 737 00:42:42,042 --> 00:42:42,742 Oh, that'd be fun. 738 00:42:43,322 --> 00:42:44,742 I imagine they're both very busy. 739 00:42:45,582 --> 00:42:46,162 But if I, you know, 740 00:42:46,222 --> 00:42:47,422 I would like to do bonus episodes 741 00:42:47,422 --> 00:42:47,922 with interviews 742 00:42:47,922 --> 00:42:49,402 and they would be very high on my list. 743 00:42:50,042 --> 00:42:59,734 Thank you everybody who boosted the show including those of you who boosted below the 2000s at cutoff and those of you who streamed We had 45 of you No that not right No 19 744 00:42:59,854 --> 00:43:00,134 There you go. 745 00:43:00,134 --> 00:43:00,454 That's right. 746 00:43:00,534 --> 00:43:01,214 19 of you. 747 00:43:01,294 --> 00:43:02,214 Ah, still pretty good. 748 00:43:02,514 --> 00:43:06,854 19 of you stream sats and you sat streamers stacked 32,360. 749 00:43:07,574 --> 00:43:08,854 You're doing very well. 750 00:43:09,454 --> 00:43:10,154 Thank you very much. 751 00:43:10,414 --> 00:43:12,854 Now, when you total it all up, we did pretty good this episode. 752 00:43:12,854 --> 00:43:17,854 This episode stacked a grand total of 459,185 satoshis. 753 00:43:19,854 --> 00:43:27,854 This here is a value for value podcast. 754 00:43:28,094 --> 00:43:30,374 If you enjoy what I do and you give value out of it, 755 00:43:30,554 --> 00:43:31,734 helps make sense of the world, 756 00:43:31,814

--> 00:43:34,774 you can send me a boost at boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com. 757 00:43:34,774 --> 00:43:37,774 And don't let them tell you people don't use their sats for anything. 758 00:43:38,094 --> 00:43:39,774 Don't let them tell you lightning doesn't work 759 00:43:39,774 --> 00:43:43,674 because every single episode is proof that is not true. 760 00:43:44,014 --> 00:43:47,854 No ads, just powered by community and the sats that you contribute. 761 00:43:47,854 --> 00:43:56,254 You can also become a member over at jupiter.party, and then you get special access to Linux Unplugged and launch, and you get a free member boost. 762 00:43:56,434 --> 00:43:58,854 There's also, you can become a member via SATs on Fountain. 763 00:43:59,174 --> 00:44:01,894 Still kind of an experimental system, but it's pretty darn cool. 764 00:44:02,134 --> 00:44:03,514 So that's available as well. 765 00:44:09,974 --> 00:44:11,454 Well, surprise, surprise. 766 00:44:11,454 --> 00:44:18,094 The banks are reacting like jerks to people deploying their own personal agents to help them sort out their finances. 767 00:44:18,774 --> 00:44:24,514 And it just reminds us that holding your own Bitcoin is a level of freedom that is easy to take for granted. 768 00:44:24,834 --> 00:44:27,434 You're the boss of your property, as it should be. 769 00:44:27,974 --> 00:44:34,674 And it's funny because, like, as soon as agents started getting popular, you saw projects like AlbiHub trying to make it easier to integrate. 770 00:44:34,994 --> 00:44:38,514 You saw a lot of crypto projects trying to make it easier to integrate with agents. 771 00:44:38,974 --> 00:44:40,034 Not the banks. 772 00:44:40,614 --> 00:44:44,814 They love to remind us that once they've got your money, it's their money, 773 00:44:44,914 --> 00:44:46,994 and you can get access to it if they let you. 774 00:44:47,394 --> 00:44:50,654 But don't you dare do anything that they don't approve of ahead of time. 775 00:44:50,914 --> 00:44:54,334 So you can imagine how some of these banks are responding to people connecting agents. 776 00:44:54,994 --> 00:44:57,214 They are completely being reasonable, 777 00:44:57,214 --> 00:45:00,754 and they're looking forward to how customers want to use this 778 00:45:00,754 --> 00:45:02,874 and creating safe mechanisms to make it possible. 779 00:45:03,714 --> 00:45:05,114 No, they're not. 780 00:45:05,754 --> 00:45:08,094 They're throwing a hissy fit and a bunch of FUD. 781 00:45:08,094 --> 00:45:13,894 A new report is highlighting how hard it could become to keep your money safe. 782 00:45:14,394 --> 00:45:24,074 Axios says major U.S. banks are detecting what they believe is unauthorized actions by third-party AI agents operating inside customer accounts. 783 00:45:24,274 --> 00:45:27,534 Now, of course, the positioning of this is pretty scary. 784 00:45:27,914 --> 00:45:33,854 But the majority of this is customers that are connecting their AI agents to a service called Plaid, or Plaid. 785 00:45:33,854 --> 00:45:36,854 and that is sort of an intermediary middleman 786 00:45:36,854 --> 00:45:38,194 that does read-only access 787 00:45:38,194 --> 00:45:41,214 via a ridiculous system that they had to come up with 788 00:45:41,214 --> 00:45:43,214 because the banks never provided a system for this. 789 00:45:43,474 --> 00:45:45,054 Now, you can imagine 790 00:45:45,054 --> 00:45:47,754 there's probably a few rogue AI agents out there 791 00:45:47,754 --> 00:45:48,734 that are knocking on doors, 792 00:45:49,254 --> 00:45:50,754 but I would be willing to bet, 793 00:45:50,894 --> 00:45:51,314 to bet? 794 00:45:51,454 --> 00:45:54,314 I would be willing to bet some serious Satoshis 795 00:45:54,314 --> 00:45:56,274 that that is the vast minority 796 00:45:56,274 --> 00:45:58,094 and the vast majority 797 00:45:58,094 --> 00:46:00,754 are people that just got themselves a Muse account 798 00:46:00,754 --> 00:46:02,774 or a GrokBot or a Dot 799 00:46:02,774 --> 00:46:07,154 and all of them have connectors for plaid in there. 800 00:46:07,554 --> 00:46:08,454 All of them. 801 00:46:08,574 --> 00:46:10,634 So yeah, that's what people are doing here. 802 00:46:10,674 --> 00:46:12,294 But the banks, that's not how they handle it 803 00:46:12,294 --> 00:46:13,674 and that's not how they spin it. 804 00:46:13,674 --> 00:46:16,214 Actions by third-party AI agents 805 00:46:16,214 --> 00:46:18,614 operating inside customer accounts. 806 00:46:19,114 --> 00:46:20,654 Some of these agents appear to have tried 807 00:46:20,654 --> 00:46:23,514 to act independent of user instructions. 808 00:46:24,054 --> 00:46:26,314 Connor Leahy is an expert on AI safety 809 00:46:26,314 --> 00:46:29,274 and the US Executive Director for Control AI 810 00:46:29,274 --> 00:46:31,874 and can hopefully give us some insight on this. 811 00:46:31,874 --> 00:46:33,114 Good morning and welcome. 812 00:46:33,454 --> 00:46:39,054 Hope our viewers understand what these AI agents were instructed to do and how that 813 00:46:39,054 --> 00:46:40,674 differed from what they actually did. 814 00:46:41,494 --> 00:46:45,414 Well, I think it's very important to understand is that in the modern world of AI, we're not 815 00:46:45,414 --> 00:46:47,194 really talking about chatbots anymore. 816 00:46:47,314 --> 00:46:48,594 We're talking about agents. 817 00:46:48,914 --> 00:46:51,954 These are systems that can take actions in the real world. 818 00:46:52,354 --> 00:46:54,134 They can access your bank account. 819 00:46:54,254 --> 00:46:55,574 They can do tasks for you. 820 00:46:55,674 --> 00:46:57,314 And many, many people are using these. 821 00:46:57,614 --> 00:46:57,794 Yeah. 822 00:46:57,894 --> 00:46:59,414 Picture an app on your phone. 823 00:46:59,494 --> 00:47:00,414 It's a lot like that. 824 00:47:00,414 --> 00:47:08,894 In this instance, it seems that in most circumstances, these AI agents were probably given access to the bank accounts by their users. 825

00:47:08,894 --> 00:47:16,714 But, and this is very important, it's A, not always clear that we can separate between truly authorized access or not. 826 00:47:17,054 --> 00:47:20,354 That's because of the architecture, because the banks never set this up properly. 827 00:47:20,354 --> 00:47:30,634 So then you had a system like Plaid come in that does it through all kinds of whack-a-ma-me means, either API or just through the online banking web lock-in, which is how they have to get into my banks. 828 00:47:31,254 --> 00:47:34,994 That's why they can't tell because they refuse to play along for so many years. 829 00:47:35,134 --> 00:47:38,534 And now that bill is coming due because they're old and they're slow. 830 00:47:38,534 --> 00:47:43,754 It's not always clear that we can separate between truly authorized access or not. 831 00:47:44,194 --> 00:47:49,154 And B, often these agents will take actions that the humans did not intend. 832 00:47:49,154 --> 00:48:05,874 I wish, I wish. I got so screwed by fold. I got so screwed because of ACH delays. Now, this is my rough understanding of the situation. My wife has the full understanding, so this may not be the entire picture. 833 00:48:05,874 --> 00:48:12,934 My rough understanding is an ACH transfer was delayed for some reason because ACH is crap. 834 00:48:13,214 --> 00:48:21,034 I used to work at the banks when ACH was still done by spreadsheets over FTP dial-up, dialed up to a server and transferred it. 835 00:48:21,694 --> 00:48:24,494 So ACH is a really, really old system. 836 00:48:24,854 --> 00:48:27,754 And for whatever reason this time, it didn't land. 837 00:48:27,754 --> 00:48:43,454 And for whatever reason, Fold still covered our bills, even though we didn't have the money in the account, which seems like a good thing, except for I had agents in here managing this and I knew what was coming due. 838 00:48:43,534 --> 00:48:44,534 I had it all figured out. 839 00:48:44,734 --> 00:48:46,574 So we double paid. 840 00:48:46,874 --> 00:48:53,914 We paid the bill directly from our checking account, even though we'd already sent the money via ACH. 841 00:48:54,674 --> 00:49:03,994 And so then because this had happened, our account went into some kind of hold and review status and no transactions could clear, even though we had transferred the money. 842 00:49:04,274 --> 00:49:06,294 No bills would clear for a while. 843 00:49:06,294 --> 00:49:10,994 And then they had to figure out the money they spent to take from the ACH transfer that we'd put in there. 844 00:49:11,654 --> 00:49:14,114 And so it is effectively almost three weeks. 845 00:49:14,254 --> 00:49:15,494 I couldn't use my fold account. 846 00:49:16,114 --> 00:49:17,174 It was a nightmare. 847 00:49:17,174 --> 00:49:27,114 And the only thing that prevented me from going default on my car payment or on a credit card bill or whatever it might have been. 848 00:49:27,374 --> 00:49:28,114 Oh, yeah. 849 00:49:28,214 --> 00:49:28,474 Oh, yeah. 850 00:49:28,494 --> 00:49:29,114 Of course. 851 00:49:29,634 --> 00:49:30,374 Of course. 852 00:49:30,634 --> 00:49:32,714 The insurance that we pay twice a year was due. 853 00:49:32,974 --> 00:49:33,234 Right. 854 00:49:33,374 --> 00:49:33,994 Of course. 855 00:49:34,194 --> 00:49:35,274 Our insurance was due. 856 00:49:35,794 --> 00:49:38,774 And, you know, that was set up forever ago. 857 00:49:39,654 --> 00:49:43,274 I would have never have caught that if I didn't have something helping me manage all of this. 858 00:49:43,794 --> 00:49:44,914 And it was a nightmare. 859 00:49:45,154 --> 00:49:46,194 It was a nightmare. 860 00:49:46,194 --> 00:49:51,174 And without the agents, we would be in financial ruins potentially because of what Fold did to us. 861 00:49:51,774 --> 00:49:52,294 It was bad. 862 00:49:53,134 --> 00:49:57,954 And so to watch this and hear them talk like this is so immensely frustrating. 863 00:49:58,334 --> 00:50:02,994 And as a Bitcoiner, you just look at this and think, these guys are always going to behave like this. 864 00:50:03,394 --> 00:50:08,474 And then they throw the FUD around that you don't know what they're doing, that they might be taking actions you didn't want them to take. 865 00:50:08,594 --> 00:50:12,594 I wish, I wish they would do that. 866 00:50:12,894 --> 00:50:13,654 I wish. 867 00:50:14,074 --> 00:50:16,874 No, no, you have to hold their hand on every little thing. 868 00:50:17,294 --> 00:50:20,014 They only want, first of all, they only get read access through Plaid. 869 00:50:20,734 --> 00:50:23,054 And if you want to go further than that, you have to have a bank that has an API 870 00:50:23,054 --> 00:50:25,494 and an MCP, if you're lucky, like Mercury. 871 00:50:25,974 --> 00:50:27,054 Most banks don't. 872 00:50:27,134 --> 00:50:30,254 And even then, if they have an official API with an API token 873 00:50:30,254 --> 00:50:33,214 that is scoped to limited access, 874 00:50:33,514 --> 00:50:36,374 they still are so careful. 875 00:50:36,774 --> 00:50:37,914 It is frustrating. 876 00:50:38,334 --> 00:50:41,934 It takes so long, especially if you're working with a frontier model. 877 00:50:41,934 --> 00:50:45,074 If you're working with a Chinese model, sometimes they just will get it done. 878 00:50:45,474 --> 00:50:47,894 So this whole thing is really just ridiculous. 879 00:50:48,094 --> 00:50:49,774 And I don't need to go on about it. 880 00:50:49,994 --> 00:50:53,534 I think I've made my point that the banks are never going to let you access the money 881 00:50:53,534 --> 00:50:54,574 the way you want to. 882 00:50:54,754 --> 00:50:57,254 And they're going to make a stink about some of these agents. 883 00:50:57,314 --> 00:51:00,974 And there's going to be a separation in services of banks that support the stuff and banks 884 00:51:00,974 --> 00:51:01,434 that don't. 885 00:51:01,774 --> 00:51:04,174 But let's move on to quantum FUD. 886 00:51:04,534 --> 00:51:10,254 Because like the

lump on my neck that just won't go away, quantum FUD continues to be 887 00:51:10,254 --> 00:51:21,385 a large part of the online discourse week after week It seems like it anchored by one claim I made mention of this earlier and that is that Bitcoin is hard to change 888 00:51:22,025 --> 00:51:24,085 And this is a core point that people bring up 889 00:51:24,085 --> 00:51:24,965 over and over again. 890 00:51:25,085 --> 00:51:26,645 Kost's chief of security, James Lopp, 891 00:51:26,905 --> 00:51:28,465 he just said that recently this week. 892 00:51:28,585 --> 00:51:30,785 Where is quantum computing actually at today? 893 00:51:30,785 --> 00:51:34,245 And how far is it from being able to steal someone's Bitcoin? 894 00:51:35,345 --> 00:51:36,565 Yeah, it's always fun to see people 895 00:51:36,565 --> 00:51:38,865 throw around these numbers because first of all, 896 00:51:39,025 --> 00:51:41,005 one qubit is not equal to one qubit. 897 00:51:41,005 --> 00:51:42,585 There's different types of qubits. 898 00:51:42,865 --> 00:51:43,765 There's physical qubits. 899 00:51:43,925 --> 00:51:45,005 There's logical qubits. 900 00:51:45,265 --> 00:51:49,425 And then there's the complexity of all the algorithms that these qubits are actually running. 901 00:51:49,925 --> 00:51:56,125 And that's like one of the many different things that is a constantly moving variable in the quantum research space. 902 00:51:56,125 --> 00:52:09,245 But to sum it up, we are orders of magnitude away from a real usable quantum computer that can crack the elliptic curve algorithm that is used to secure your Bitcoin. 903 00:52:09,245 --> 00:52:14,765 And do you, I mean, could you even put it on a timeline for when it becomes a real threat? 904 00:52:15,405 --> 00:52:17,965 This is the trillion dollar question. 905 00:52:18,605 --> 00:52:25,325 Because we're orders of magnitude away, it means we have to have multiple massive breakthroughs. 906 00:52:25,325 --> 00:52:32,705 But as anyone who's been paying attention to the technology space, now AI is having multiple breakthroughs. 907 00:52:32,705 --> 00:52:42,765 And the crazy thing about AI breakthroughs is that they tend to percolate throughout the entire technology ecosystem and result in breakthroughs in other industries. 908 00:52:43,345 --> 00:52:45,825 So this is one thing people are keeping their eyes on. 909 00:52:46,085 --> 00:52:49,085 I still don't think it's going to happen any time in the next few years. 910 00:52:49,085 --> 00:52:54,525 I'm still hopeful that we have at least a decade or more, because if we have less than a decade, we're behind. 911 00:52:54,785 --> 00:52:57,785 And that's basically why I've been talking about quantum for several years. 912 00:52:57,785 --> 00:53:05,405 Not because I think that it's about to break everything, but because, as we all know, Bitcoin is very, very difficult to change. 913 00:53:06,085 --> 00:53:08,725 Very, very difficult to change, he says. 914 00:53:08,925 --> 00:53:11,065 And I agree and I disagree. 915 00:53:11,665 --> 00:53:14,465 It's hard to change consensus for bad ideas. 916 00:53:14,605 --> 00:53:15,285 That is true. 917 00:53:15,405 --> 00:53:17,485 It's very, very hard to change for bad ideas. 918 00:53:18,185 --> 00:53:23,505 And it is true that even good ideas are difficult to change in a decentralized open source project. 919 00:53:23,505 --> 00:53:31,305 but bitcoin isn't like some sort of rock it's made up of humans of individuals who have followed 920 00:53:31,305 --> 00:53:35,145 their incentives since the beginning of the bitcoin network it's honestly one of the most 921 00:53:35,145 --> 00:53:40,985 brilliant and resilient things about bitcoin is that everyone is just following their incentives 922 00:53:40,985 --> 00:53:48,385 the users the miners the operators the etf holders that's the core human behavior that's led to the 923 00:53:48,385 --> 00:53:52,905 network success so far that's the core of it right there and that's part of the network effect 924 00:53:53,345 --> 00:53:55,865 It's one of the areas, actually, Michael Saylor and I agree. 925 00:53:56,745 --> 00:53:58,925 Incentives will line up when the time is right. 926 00:53:59,805 --> 00:54:01,405 People don't want to lose their Bitcoin. 927 00:54:02,105 --> 00:54:06,465 He was just up on stage this week, and I was asked about this. 928 00:54:06,545 --> 00:54:07,525 And so I'm going to play this clip. 929 00:54:07,885 --> 00:54:08,865 I didn't put this together. 930 00:54:08,865 --> 00:54:10,905 I think maybe somebody's clanker put this together. 931 00:54:11,565 --> 00:54:15,865 But it's a clip of Saylor answering this question, and I tend to agree with most of it. 932 00:54:16,185 --> 00:54:21,425 And then what will follow him is several clips of quantum researchers and developers 933 00:54:21,425 --> 00:54:25,645 and their current thoughts on the state of Bitcoin and the quantum leap. 934 00:54:25,645 --> 00:54:30,745 We only have a quick second, but I have to ask you, because it's obviously a big issue just in general, 935 00:54:30,925 --> 00:54:32,425 not just AI, but also quantum. 936 00:54:32,905 --> 00:54:36,985 I noticed that you did not mention as a potential headwind quantum 937 00:54:36,985 --> 00:54:41,765 and what quantum is doing in terms of cryptography and security risk. 938 00:54:42,265 --> 00:54:46,105 Do you have a, you know, particularly in the last week or two in terms of developments, 939 00:54:46,705 --> 00:54:50,965 do you continue to sort of see this as a long-term, medium-term, no-term, 940 00:54:50,965 --> 00:54:55,405 challenge to the Bitcoin system. Obviously, there's going to be a coordination question as to how do 941 00:54:55,405 --> 00:55:00,365 you make your Bitcoin quantum proof? How do you get your mind around? 942 00:55:00,845 --> 00:55:04,205 I mean, the short answer to Bitcoin security is there's a hundred things people have worried 943 00:55:04,205 --> 00:55:10,585 about over the

last 20 years, and we ticked them all off. They've all been overcome. The latest one 944 00:55:10,585 --> 00:55:15,905 is quantum concern. There is no quantum computer. There is no consensus that there's a quantum 945 00:55:15,905 --> 00:55:21,545 computer. When there is a quantum threat and it forms, the consensus will form in the world and 946 00:55:21,545 --> 00:55:27,325 every bank, every big tech company, every software company and all the crypto networks and digital 947 00:55:27,325 --> 00:55:33,685 assets and every government will all upgrade to post-quantum resistant cryptography. The Bitcoin 948 00:55:33,685 --> 00:55:39,345 network is just a bunch of nodes, a bunch of software running on computers and phones. And 949 00:55:39,345 --> 00:55:45,285 at the point that there's consensus on a quantum threat, we will upgrade the software. It's probably 950 00:55:45,285 --> 00:55:46,605 a 90-day upgrade. 951 00:55:46,885 --> 00:55:52,645 The reason we don't upgrade the software now is because quantum-resistant cryptographic 952 00:55:52,645 --> 00:55:57,385 libraries are actually much more complicated with other attack surfaces. 953 00:55:58,105 --> 00:56:01,425 And the actual threat in the industry right now isn't quantum. 954 00:56:01,545 --> 00:56:04,525 The actual threat, the real threat, is AI hacking. 955 00:56:05,125 --> 00:56:11,025 So if you take a frontier model, the one thing you would love to have is a super complicated 956 00:56:11,025 --> 00:56:13,225 Rube Goldberg device piece of software, 957 00:56:13,225 --> 00:56:15,425 and you would like to attack it 958 00:56:15,425 --> 00:56:17,565 with the latest frontier model, 959 00:56:17,745 --> 00:56:18,825 find a glitch in it, 960 00:56:18,825 --> 00:56:19,965 and then exploit the glitch. 961 00:56:20,745 --> 00:56:25,405 And so the danger is upgrading software 962 00:56:25,405 --> 00:56:27,745 to be too complicated too quickly 963 00:56:27,745 --> 00:56:29,885 before the threat manifests itself. 964 00:56:30,365 --> 00:56:32,625 It's like it's an iatrogenic intervention. 965 00:56:32,805 --> 00:56:33,425 That's the danger. 966 00:56:34,105 --> 00:56:37,225 So the rational thing for the network to do 967 00:56:37,225 --> 00:56:42,325 is wait and develop the quantum, post-quantum libraries. 968 00:56:42,405 --> 00:56:44,345 But that's happening at Microsoft and Google 969 00:56:44,345 --> 00:56:46,805 and the US government, NSA, et cetera. 970 00:56:47,205 --> 00:56:48,205 Let those develop. 971 00:56:48,325 --> 00:56:49,245 They keep improving. 972 00:56:49,405 --> 00:56:50,665 They're improving exponentially. 973 00:56:51,485 --> 00:56:53,525 Wait until there is a quantum computer. 974 00:56:53,525 --> 00:56:56,345 There might be a threat that forms in five or 10 years. 975 00:56:56,445 --> 00:56:57,525 It might never come. 976 00:56:57,665 --> 00:57:01,085 It might come sooner, might come in 30 years. 977 00:57:01,505 --> 00:57:04,345 When and if it comes, you upgrade the software.

978 00:57:04,345 --> 00:57:11,385 but you don't vaccinate your kid at age one against some disease they might get at age 67. 979 00:57:12,525 --> 00:57:18,345 Because if you do that 100 times and you've got a 1% mortality rate, 980 00:57:18,385 --> 00:57:21,845 you're going to kill the kid by protecting them against something that never happened, 981 00:57:21,905 --> 00:57:23,325 that they're not going to live to see happen. 982 00:57:23,445 --> 00:57:26,825 And so we view quantum resistance the same way. 983 00:57:26,865 --> 00:57:27,685 It's a vaccine. 984 00:57:28,365 --> 00:57:29,465 We've developed it. 985 00:57:29,465 --> 00:57:38,625 But the threat's evolving and the cure is getting better and we'll wait until we need it before we take it. 986 00:57:38,865 --> 00:57:42,485 Great. Any future work we should be expecting to see from you? Some research? 987 00:57:43,005 --> 00:57:51,245 Yeah, I mean, right now we're looking at what we need to do to be able to transition to post-quantum signature schemes. 988 00:57:52,045 --> 00:57:57,885 There's a lot of new research around that as well, doing NPC for lattice-based signatures, for example. 989 00:57:57,885 --> 00:58:01,705 threshold decryption for lattice-based encryption, 990 00:58:02,545 --> 00:58:06,105 how far can you push MPC for hash-based signature schemes. 991 00:58:06,965 --> 00:58:10,785 So, you know, we're applying it in the cryptocurrency space, 992 00:58:10,865 --> 00:58:13,485 in the blockchain space, but I think it's relevant, 993 00:58:13,765 --> 00:58:15,665 you know, it's relevant cryptography in general. 994 00:58:16,405 --> 00:58:19,585 That's where I'm focusing my time right now. 995 00:58:20,305 --> 00:58:22,565 In the absence of that information, 996 00:58:23,465 --> 00:58:26,785 what would you recommend or how do you kind of think about this 997 00:58:26,785 --> 00:58:29,405 as just like an everyday user of technology? 998 00:58:29,565 --> 00:58:30,965 Like, how does this impact 999 00:58:30,965 --> 00:58:32,605 how you interact with technology, if at all? 1000 00:58:32,765 --> 00:58:34,105 So nothing has changed. 1001 00:58:34,805 --> 00:58:37,925 The world today is the same as the world a week ago, 1002 00:58:38,145 --> 00:58:39,205 the world a year ago. 1003 00:58:39,305 --> 00:58:39,965 Nothing has changed. 1004 00:58:40,025 --> 00:58:42,505 Until we learn something new 1005 00:58:42,505 --> 00:58:44,985 about our standard cryptographic systems, 1006 00:58:45,525 --> 00:58:46,345 nothing has changed. 1007 00:58:46,485 --> 00:58:48,625 Keep using the systems as they are. 1008 00:58:49,205 --> 00:58:50,545 When we learn something new, 1009 00:58:50,845 --> 00:58:52,205 either we'll have more confidence 1010 00:58:52,205 --> 00:58:53,505 or we'll have to react. 1011 00:58:53,945 --> 00:58:55,625 But until we have more information, 1012 00:58:55,625 --> 00:59:02,005 nothing has changed so please don't panic you know keep calm yeah to put it another way you know the 1013

00:59:02,005 --> 00:59:08,225 the the reaction yesterday and continuing today is not a reaction to new information 1014 00:59:08,225 --> 00:59:16,645 what the reaction is maybe an indirect reaction to the dump of mathematical results from open ai 1015 00:59:16,645 --> 00:59:22,665 a very indirect kind of information about ai's progress which i again is it was amazing but i 1016 00:59:22,665 --> 00:59:27,905 don't think is a surprise. It's like all Silicon Valley's been talking about for years now. But 1017 00:59:27,905 --> 00:59:43,077 it not a specific reaction to a specific piece of information about cryptography We didn learn that elliptic curves are vulnerable in a way that they weren before We didn learn that any specific cryptographic assumptions have less security than they did before 1018 00:59:43,877 --> 00:59:52,417 Maybe to give people a little bit more confidence also, we have a lot of different types of assumptions that we use to build public key cryptography. 1019 00:59:52,417 --> 00:59:54,537 It's not just elliptic curves or lattices. 1020 00:59:54,737 --> 00:59:59,217 We have isogenies and code-based systems and multivariate polynomial-based systems. 1021 00:59:59,657 --> 01:00:01,297 There are many hash-based signatures. 1022 01:00:01,297 --> 01:00:06,057 there are many other types of assumptions that we can build public key cryptography from. 1023 01:00:06,737 --> 01:00:08,777 So if we need to react, we can react. 1024 01:00:08,957 --> 01:00:12,777 Of course, everything takes time, but we sort of know where to go. 1025 01:00:13,197 --> 01:00:19,917 And so even if the worst of the worst happens, there are still plenty of ways for us to recover. 1026 01:00:20,917 --> 01:00:26,177 So it seems to me like the reality is people in the know are thinking about it. 1027 01:00:26,177 --> 01:00:27,217 They're working on it. 1028 01:00:27,217 --> 01:00:29,737 and they have no doubt that when the time comes, 1029 01:00:29,857 --> 01:00:31,497 the Bitcoin network will make the adjustments 1030 01:00:31,497 --> 01:00:32,797 it needs to make. 1031 01:00:33,537 --> 01:00:35,717 The fact that we don't have to wait for the banks 1032 01:00:35,717 --> 01:00:38,817 or CEOs or governments to sort this out 1033 01:00:38,817 --> 01:00:41,397 is going to be a massive advantage for Bitcoiners 1034 01:00:41,397 --> 01:00:43,697 and we're so focused on this one little problem. 1035 01:00:44,097 --> 01:00:46,657 We are gonna be in such a better position 1036 01:00:46,657 --> 01:00:48,577 than just about every institution 1037 01:00:48,577 --> 01:00:49,837 that has to deal with this. 1038 01:00:50,577 --> 01:00:53,197 So I think maybe just to wrap us up, 1039 01:00:53,657 --> 01:00:55,517 I wanna end on a clip that reminds us 1040 01:00:55,517 --> 01:00:58,197 how important an actual store of value is. 1041 01:00:58,317 --> 01:01:00,617 Because Chamath did it, others do it. 1042 01:01:00,677 --> 01:01:02,977 They just hand-waved the store of value 1043 01:01:02,977 --> 01:01:06,477 as if it doesn't matter, as if it's nothing. 1044 01:01:07,057 --> 01:01:08,917 But I think it's the exact opposite. 1045 01:01:09,117 --> 01:01:11,737 I think it's a product with universal market fit. 1046 01:01:12,297 --> 01:01:15,597 And Jack wrapped up pretty well on his podcast this week. 1047 01:01:16,037 --> 01:01:17,877 I thought he ended on a nice strong note 1048 01:01:17,877 --> 01:01:19,357 and put this into perspective. 1049 01:01:19,357 --> 01:01:21,857 You know, I've always considered government debt 1050 01:01:21,857 --> 01:01:23,717 as a form of time travel. 1051 01:01:23,717 --> 01:01:27,137 They borrow from our future without our consent. 1052 01:01:27,317 --> 01:01:29,057 They literally travel to the future 1053 01:01:29,057 --> 01:01:33,277 and take our time, energy, effort, labor. 1054 01:01:33,397 --> 01:01:35,497 The fact that generations before us 1055 01:01:35,497 --> 01:01:39,137 were able to work five, six, seven years to own a home 1056 01:01:39,137 --> 01:01:43,477 and now we're having to work 50, 60 years to own a home, 1057 01:01:43,597 --> 01:01:45,077 like literally own it, not a mortgage, 1058 01:01:45,257 --> 01:01:46,617 pay it off, your property. 1059 01:01:47,397 --> 01:01:49,257 That's theft of time. 1060 01:01:49,337 --> 01:01:50,137 That's time travel. 1061 01:01:50,217 --> 01:01:51,577 That's entering our future, 1062 01:01:51,577 --> 01:01:55,157 grabbing our effort, our labor, our energy, 1063 01:01:55,857 --> 01:01:57,577 and spending it and wasting it today 1064 01:01:57,577 --> 01:01:59,077 without our consent. 1065 01:01:59,557 --> 01:02:00,357 That's the other thing. 1066 01:02:00,457 --> 01:02:01,257 On a gold standard, 1067 01:02:01,357 --> 01:02:03,937 you used to have to deposit the gold to the government 1068 01:02:03,937 --> 01:02:06,537 if they needed to defend themselves for war 1069 01:02:06,537 --> 01:02:09,297 or they needed help financing something. 1070 01:02:09,457 --> 01:02:12,177 And if I didn't consent to that, I kept my gold. 1071 01:02:12,597 --> 01:02:13,857 And that was such a fair system. 1072 01:02:13,857 --> 01:02:15,657 If we really needed to go to war 1073 01:02:15,657 --> 01:02:17,817 and we really needed to defend ourselves, 1074 01:02:18,097 --> 01:02:20,217 well, then the people would surely go into their savings 1075 01:02:20,217 --> 01:02:21,517 and give a little bit of gold 1076 01:02:21,517 --> 01:02:23,777 to make sure that we as a country 1077 01:02:23,777 --> 01:02:24,857 were doing what we needed to do. 1078 01:02:24,917 --> 01:02:26,497 But if we didn't actually need to, 1079 01:02:26,737 --> 01:02:29,477 you wouldn't get the financing to be able to afford it 1080 01:02:29,477 --> 01:02:31,337 because everyone had to consent. 1081 01:02:31,997 --> 01:02:34,377 Fiat money printing is a violation 1082 01:02:34,377 --> 01:02:36,857 of our property rights and our dignity 1083 01:02:36,857 --> 01:02:38,817 because it's without our

consent. 1084 01:02:39,577 --> 01:02:42,057 It is literally theft and abuse. 1085 01:02:42,857 --> 01:02:46,017 And so my message to whoever's willing to listen is, 1086 01:02:46,017 --> 01:02:50,697 listen, there are two incredibly powerful expressions, 1087 01:02:50,697 --> 01:02:58,397 voice and exit. Okay. When voice is no longer sufficient, there's only one action left and 1088 01:02:58,397 --> 01:03:05,577 that's exit. And so you want to protest? I've been protesting for 14 years now by Bitcoin. 1089 01:03:06,077 --> 01:03:11,317 It's not violent. I don't need anyone's permission. I don't need a specific politician 1090 01:03:11,317 --> 01:03:18,137 or political agenda. Okay. And put the moral code. This is from my speech in Prague a few years ago, 1091 01:03:18,137 --> 01:03:24,577 But before Bitcoin is computer code or a network, I think it's moral code. 1092 01:03:24,917 --> 01:03:32,657 And that moral code is thou shall not inflate, thou shall not confiscate, thou shall not counterfeit, and thou shall not censor. 1093 01:03:34,097 --> 01:03:35,637 Thou shall treat everyone equally. 1094 01:03:37,177 --> 01:03:39,197 Everyone is included. 1095 01:03:39,917 --> 01:03:41,437 Everyone is treated equally. 1096 01:03:42,017 --> 01:03:43,937 There's a freedom in coming and going. 1097 01:03:44,817 --> 01:03:46,217 You cannot censor. 1098 01:03:46,397 --> 01:03:47,417 You cannot counterfeit. 1099 01:03:47,417 --> 01:03:54,337 you cannot confiscate, you cannot inflate, and you cannot steal. It is moral code of protest. 1100 01:03:54,717 --> 01:04:01,117 It is a peaceful protest to say, you know what? I'm out. Because when voice is no longer 1101 01:04:01,117 --> 01:04:06,717 sufficient, exit is the only option we have left to protect any dignity. 1102 01:04:17,417 --> 01:04:27,997 Let's check in on the state of the network as I wrap up at block height 973,562. 1103 01:04:28,557 --> 01:04:33,097 Our U.S. price to one Bitcoin right now, 81,190. 1104 01:04:33,097 --> 01:04:37,917 That makes our sats per dollar at 1,232 satoshis to a dollar. 1105 01:04:38,397 --> 01:04:47,017 We're down 35.7 from our all-time high, which was 387 days ago, you absolute cyber hornet 1106 01:04:47,017 --> 01:04:53,317 psychopaths. The difficulty retarget date is tomorrow, as I record October 29th, with an 1107 01:04:53,317 --> 01:04:59,857 estimated, whoa, estimated difficulty change upward of 6.2%. I thought they were all switching 1108 01:04:59,857 --> 01:05:08,937 to AI. Whoa. Wow. Reachable Bitcoin nodes down a bit this week at 23,114. We're up 0.6% in the 1109 01:05:08,937 --> 01:05:17,517 last 24 hours, but down 4% since the last episode. Sats on the blockchain, or fees on the blockchain, 1110 01:05:18,317 --> 01:05:24,277 still low. One sat per V-byte. But look at that difficulty change. Isn't that something? 1111 01:05:24,697 --> 01:05:27,917 You know what I say, the state of the network is strong. 1112 01:05:27,917 --> 01:05:40,597 well if you made it this far come say hi to me in texas if you're in the austin area i'm flying 1113 01:05:40,597 --> 01:05:46,757 out next week and i'll be there i think the 6th and the 7th at texas linux fest gonna try to do a 1114 01:05:46,757 --> 01:05:51,697 little lunch on a friday i suspect maybe saturday i don't know maybe both days you know i do need to 1115 01:05:51,697 --> 01:05:53,677 eat. Also links to what I talked 1116 01:05:53,677 --> 01:05:55,697 about this week, thisweekinbitcoin.show. 1117 01:05:57,017 --> 01:05:57,797 You'll check out, 1118 01:05:58,017 --> 01:05:59,697 you'll see there's probably more stuff in there that didn't even make 1119 01:05:59,697 --> 01:06:01,597 it in the show. Do let me know 1120 01:06:01,597 --> 01:06:03,797 how I did with a boost. My goal 1121 01:06:03,797 --> 01:06:05,717 is to focus on the things that matter to 1122 01:06:05,717 --> 01:06:07,697 you. Focus on the signal, not get 1123 01:06:07,697 --> 01:06:09,417 distracted by the emotions or the politics. 1124 01:06:09,677 --> 01:06:11,557 None of that. So that way is you can 1125 01:06:11,557 --> 01:06:13,257 plan for yourselves, your friends, your families, 1126 01:06:13,577 --> 01:06:15,137 your business, whatever it might be. 1127 01:06:15,597 --> 01:06:17,297 Also, I want to know your thoughts on quantum. 1128 01:06:17,437 --> 01:06:19,597 If you think it's something we need to address sooner than 1129 01:06:19,597 --> 01:06:21,077 later just to calm people down. 1130 01:06:21,697 --> 01:06:26,157 or if the risk of addressing it sooner than later is actually more dangerous. 1131 01:06:27,437 --> 01:06:28,297 Boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com. 1132 01:06:28,357 --> 01:06:30,057 Let me know how I did over there. 1133 01:06:30,417 --> 01:06:33,817 And of course, if there's something you'd like to see me cover in a future episode, 1134 01:06:33,897 --> 01:06:34,617 you can put it there. 1135 01:06:35,017 --> 01:06:36,837 I'm not quite sure what the plan is for next week. 1136 01:06:36,877 --> 01:06:39,197 Since I am flying, I may do an early episode. 1137 01:06:39,357 --> 01:06:40,757 So keep your eye on the RSS feed. 1138 01:06:41,117 --> 01:06:43,437 That's always the best way to get an episode when it drops. 1139 01:06:43,877 --> 01:06:44,737 Thanks so much for listening. 1140 01:06:44,877 --> 01:06:48,617 And I'll see you right back here on This Week in Bitcoin next week. 1141 01:06:51,697 --> 01:07:21,677 Thank you. 1142 01:07:21,697 --> 01:07:51,677 Thank you. 1143 01:07:51,697 --> 01:07:52,197 you