UDSKRIFT 🔗
WEBVTT
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I'm gonna be honest.
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It's just an objective fact that when I don't have coins, I'm just so much more bored.
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I should just start buying garbage just so I could be financially motivated to cover specific assets.
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Okay.
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Today's gonna be a little bit of a fun one.
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We have a lot to talk about.
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We're gonna do a little rehashing of the weekend.
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We are going to get into some topics.
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We got sucker carls and nukes.
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We got war over for the 100th time.
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We got fake Pokemon Slabs.
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We got AI hacks.
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We're gonna have a quick call in 15 minutes from Mert to tell us how over it is on the hacking side of things.
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We have a post-mortem of the Binance exploit, which is nuts.
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We got stock crash, we got midterms, we got Jensen dating a Chinese spy, we got lighter, we got a million things to talk about, a million things to get into.
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And what's up, guys?
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How are we, man?
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How is everyone?
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I missed you.
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I truly did miss you.
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I I'll tell you what.
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I I I went 48 hours.
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That's not true.
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But I went a while without opening my phone this weekend.
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You open your phone, and the first thing you see, it's like, okay, Tucker Carlson, first tweet.
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Tucker Carlson, Trump is uh we're gonna Trump and Israel are gonna drop a nuke.
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Scroll one, CEO of Shopify, all of Linux is hacked.
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Scroll one more, cybersecurity expert.
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Every freezer in Europe has been taken over and they're spoiling food.
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One more scroll.
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Private jet in Florida has crashed.
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Here is a graphic video of every single angle and the audio recording.
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Enjoy.
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Next scroll, Lamar Jackson, broken thumb, out for the season.
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Next scroll.
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Every Pokemon card ever from PSA is fake.
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Good luck.
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The entire market is going to crash.
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Next scroll, the CEO of NVIDIA and arguably the most powerful person in America is dating a Chinese spy.
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Next scroll, CoffeeZilla video, Binance hack recap for eight billion dollars.
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Next scroll.
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That's the first thing you see when you look at your phone, man.
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I I've been pretty on this, and I'm gonna continue to be on it, even though it's maybe bad for business.
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That too much Twitter time is gonna drive you fucking crazy, man.
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It's oh yeah, and it sets your clock back, which is just like the most ridiculous thing ever.
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Too much Twitter time right now, it's never been less useful than it is.
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I I fully believe my job is to be a vessel.
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I'm like the guy the shield and everyone's laying below.
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I spend 10 hours a day on Twitter to get all the content so I can come feed it to you like a bird, like a like a bird, and you guys can avoid a lot of the like you're I'm not gonna listen to the audio during stream.
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So I'm out here chewing, then I and you go and you get only the good stuff.
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So my little birdies, I got you.
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This is what I'm here to do.
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And everybody's wondering, everybody wants to know the right guy, how was your weekend?
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What did you do?
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How was it?
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It was incredible.
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Okay, my weekend was fucking lit.
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Okay.
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I first of all, I haven't had a fun Halloween in five years.
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Deadass.
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I have not had a fun Halloween in five years.
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I was starting to think it wasn't possible.
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The problem and the reason why I think is because I've been going to the club every Halloween.
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Clubs are topped, house parties are bottomed because nobody wants nobody but nobody wants to do them.
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But my real take is that normal gen pop outdoor activities are back.
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Okay.
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I went, bro, I went to the parade in New York City.
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I went to the parade, which is some shit you would not ever.
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Usually I'd be like, bro, the parade.
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What the fuck are you talking about?
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I'm not going to the parade.
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I went to the parade.
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There was like 20, I don't know, 20,000 people.
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Every street was blocked off in New York City.
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It was actually a parade in my city, and it was, bro, it was electric.
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Load full transcript
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Everybody's in costumes, everyone's dressed up, everyone's drinking, everyone's going hard, everyone's cheering.
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Usually I'd be like, no, like I want a table.
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Get these people away from me.
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Now I'm like, fuck it.
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I'm going to the middle of the parade and it was electric.
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I'm so bullish on like communal outdoor activities.
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It's so bad.
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But no.
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All right, let's just start with the world's over.
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Um, AI or real.
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Go.
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Guess.
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AI or real.
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Obviously.
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AI or real.
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We're gonna do like an we're gonna do like a is it cake?
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AI or Reel costume.
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AI or Real.
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If you're wondering what this is, this is uh Aliyah's I don't even know how to say her name.
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Birthday gangbang visual.
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AI or real.
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Lady X, what's good?
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AI or real.
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Um, yeah, it's AI, it's AI, and everybody's cooks.
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Straight up.
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The images AI generated.
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I've stared at this image for 20, 25 minutes, and I I can't tell you how where.
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Genuinely where?
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Open image and news.
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I've stared at this for 20 minutes, and there's always people in the comments that are like, obviously AI.
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Where?
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You should you tell me where where in the AI is this?
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Genuinely where?
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Nowhere.
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What's what is the sign?
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Everything in this looks real.
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Bookshelf looks AI.
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How?
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Bookshelf?
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No.
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Cables look good, paintings look good, jackets look good.
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Hand, five- one, two, three, four, five.
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I mean, you could argue maybe a little bit, but it's blurry.
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Shape is not impossible.
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Stuff that bitch with with styrofoam, bro.
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Hand looks fine, thumb looks good, styrofoam cardboard in the what are we calling these?
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The flow chart.
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Floor tiles look good everywhere.
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Crack in the door, dust.
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It's a little dirty, maybe.
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Jackets, purse, hat is good.
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A little weird here.
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Hat and the purse are like a little bit weird.
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Cooked.
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Completely cooked.
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Wall shadow, but I don't know.
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The lighting is weird.
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Window is good.
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Cooked.
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We've hit it straight up.
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There was a there was a while where you maybe had to pause and think, is this AI?
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And I decided at that moment we had an existential problem.
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But you could at least figure it out.
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Like, okay, the fact that you have to pause and look and feel it is scary and alarming and but fine.
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But the fact that I, who I think has a pretty good vibe for what's real and what's not, or I think I'm relatively sharp.
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If I can't figure it out, it's over.
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I'm I'm like the barrier.
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I'm like the uh I'm the example.
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Okay.
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If I if I can't figure it out, the whole wrap it up.
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Wrap it up, it's over.
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Existing trust on the internet is about to become giga, giga, giga valuable.
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Gene Phil looked real to me too, bro.
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Gene Phil still looks real real to me.
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This thing still looks real to me.
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I I'm still not convinced this fucking thing isn't real.
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I'm still not convinced that this this this fellow isn't real.
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Straight up.
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I mean, I don't know.
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I'm still not convinced this isn't real.
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So, anyways, I saw this weekend and I genuinely just could not believe my eyes that they wanted to tell me that this is AI, but it was and it is.
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And um, before we get into Tucker Carlson saying the world is gonna get nuked, let's do a follow-up on our PSA Pokemon card segment really quick, because we're gonna be doing a lot of war today, and let's just get some let's get like a fun Doomer topic out of the way to start us off.
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Okay.
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Um, all right.
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Last week, the story of the week was there was a million-dollar heist on a FedEx truck containing Pokemon card PSA slabs.
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Okay, we still have no
resolution on what they are going to do with it, but we do have a new story, which is that there is an epidemic of fake PSA slabs being sold.
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It has finally been brought to light on a massive sale, and now all of a sudden, everybody has no idea, no calculation of just how much of the Pokemon card underbelly, sports card underbelly, PSA underbelly is driven by fake slabs, and that is what you would call a massive problem on our hands.
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So here's what happened Um, about a week ago, this card right here, 2002 Pokemon Expedition Dragonite Hollow, Gem Mint 10, sold on a Fanatics auction for$288,000 with 19 bids.
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Looks like another routine sale, the way that vintage Pokemon is moving.
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Nothing too crazy about it.
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However, immediately after this sale, there's this post made on the Pokemon TCG.
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Okay, and the post reads as such How is it possible that a card I submitted to PSA got sold on Fanatic Fanatics?
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The Dragonite from Expedition Base set is my all-time favorite card for a while now.
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I'm owning a PSA 1 and PSA 10 set of this card, as you can see here.
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I've just noticed that a PSA 10 with my specific serial number was allegedly sold on Fanatics on October 23rd.
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Since I personally sent this card to PSA and kept it since then, that is absolutely impossible.
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The card is shown in my image, the card shown in the image is definitely not mine.
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The hollow effect is different.
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Also, the lettering doesn't look correctly formatted.
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In my image of the set, you could see that the PSA logo is always aligned with the O and the word hollow.
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This is the case for all of my cards, except for the one that was sold.
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I genuinely believe someone has purchased a fake slab for$288,000.
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Okay.
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And so what happened is somebody went on Fanatics, they sold a PSA 10 Dragonite with this exact serial number.
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Somebody saw it and said, Uh, I have that exact same serial number.
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And it drove this thing into a pretty massive scandal.
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And so it brings us to this, which is that it is not the first time this has happened, and there's sort of this Cambrian explosion of fake cards being sold.
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And so this happened recently on this tweet, which is a ton of fake slabs are circulating on all the major platforms, including eBay, Alt, and Fanatics.
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There's a PSA 10 legendary collection Gyarados that sold on Ryan's cardhouse
that was also deemed fake.
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Apparently, Group of Europe is responsible.
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Do your due diligence.
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The only way that they were able to determine that these were fake is that there's a QR code on the back of a PSA graded slab that is supposed to take you to the official card almost as sort of a verification.
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The problem is you can recreate the QR code and take it to the same URL.
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But in this recent batch of fake cards, whoever was responsible for doing the duplicating put on a bad link that added this like preview weird URL, and people were able to figure out that it was fake.
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But the only reason they're able to figure out figure out it was fake is because it was a user error.
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Like the retard who was doing the faking fucked it up.
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And so it brought me to this story that I found on the internet where in January, this guy by the name of Anthony Cercio was convicted of wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud for his involvement in the year, multi-year-long scheme to sell fake Pokemon in sports trading cards defrauding buyers out of more than two million dollars.
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Two million dollars.
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January 28th, he was convicted um for trade for selling trading cards with forged grades allegedly issued by professional sports authenticator, aka PSA.
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And so all of a sudden, we sort of have a massive problem on our hands, okay?
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Because basically what is happening is people are going on eBay or whatever, they're finding a real card that is graded from PSA, they're copying the certification, like the the text, the images, the QR code.
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They're getting one of the real cards ungraded.
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They're figuring out how to finangle it in the slab, doing a little but a bang, but a boom, and they're shipping these off as real cards.
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The bigger problem is that there's really no clear way to solve this.
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And so you go to these card shows, and people who are not super experienced in the hobby are looking around, and the cards look real, they feel real, and we now have no idea how much product has moved through these Pokemon card shows that are fake.
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This is a monster because the entire industry,$15 billion of market cap, is dependent on the reliability and the trust that PSA has with the hobby.
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And so you add a dark horse zoom narrative like this in the middle of a blow off the top market in Pokemon, and all of the sudden you think to yourself, uh now what happens?
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So developing story, one that we are going to be following.
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But if you are buying cards right now, be careful.
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Um, all right, let's get into doom and gloom for the day.
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Um, under pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran.
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Um, the target would be Pickaxe Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program.
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No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place.
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The only military option is a nuclear strike.
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Netanyahu's been pushing hard for one.
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BB calls Trump about it every day, says an informed advisor.
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Netanyahu is concerned and desperate.
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After last week's election results, he can't form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats.
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Otherwise, he is out as the prime minister and on his way to investigations and possibly jail.
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Netanyahu must stay close to Trump.
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He needs this war.
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Pickaxe Mountain is crazy.
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To that end, he's applied maximum pressure to his closet allies in the administration, including the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and CENTCCOM commander Brad Cooper.
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Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they've so grievously mismanaged.
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Both are pushing to restart major combat operations.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu's lead.
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As our former leaders uh as our leaders of the Democratic Party, um, we're not gonna read this whole thing.
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Let's see.
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Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next week whether or not to use nuclear weapons.
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That would be November 7th, six days from now.
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To his credit, he's hesitating.
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At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president JD Vance and his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom agree a deal with Iran can be made.
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They're right though.
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It won't be simple.
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The Iranians are famously frustrated to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since the Ayatollah and his family
were killed in February.
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After decades of isolation, even remotely moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West.
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But overall, people have spoken to people who have spoken to decision makers in Iran say there was consensus that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making.
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So, all right, I don't know much about uh, I don't know, nuclear war odds here.
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I would say that that is about as close to a peak fear monger that you could possibly get to.
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Okay, 25 minutes ago or so, this came out as sort of a counter.
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Um, the Iranian president, Supreme Leader has granted the government certain authorities regarding negotiations.
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War will not force Iran to surrender.
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Iran is committed to dialogue, doing the best to get this market to stop bleeding.
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I do think if there's a real serious peace proposal and ceasefire post midterms, regardless of the red slash blue wave, the market will like it.
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The question is if we actually get a deal.
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So here's the thing.
00:15:54.080 --> 00:15:56.720
You gotta ask yourself, like, do you take Tucker Carlson seriously?
00:15:56.879 --> 00:15:58.399
I think the answer is very low.
00:15:58.720 --> 00:16:01.279
Second question is what the fuck are you supposed to do with that information?
00:16:01.440 --> 00:16:02.720
It's game theory out.
00:16:02.879 --> 00:16:15.120
Usually the answer is you always long nuclear war threats because either they nuke it and you die, or they don't and we rip and you have coins and you make money.
00:16:15.279 --> 00:16:21.039
And so, in both scenarios, buying coins is the preferable one or buying stocks.
00:16:21.200 --> 00:16:31.440
The problem though is that okay, if you really think about it, if they drop some small nuke on pickaxe island in Iran, which what the fuck is that?
00:16:31.600 --> 00:16:33.039
You're just not gonna die.
00:16:33.200 --> 00:16:34.879
Like you're not dying.
00:16:35.120 --> 00:16:39.360
Everyone in Iran is not dying, and the world is not ending if that happens.
00:16:39.519 --> 00:16:50.240
But what is happening is you break the social contract of we don't do nukes ever, and then all of a sudden all bets are off, and we definitely do go down.
00:16:50.399 --> 00:16:55.200
And so if it actually were to happen, it's the worst case scenario, probably.
00:16:55.360 --> 00:16:58.080
Because it isn't even gonna be big enough where like you're not gonna die.
00:16:58.240 --> 00:17:02.399
You you in in uh Chicago, Illinois are not gonna die, at least not day one.
00:17:02.559 --> 00:17:08.480
Not day one, you're not dying in the f you are not dying as a result of the nuke getting dropped, at least not day one.
00:17:08.640 --> 00:17:12.720
But your percentage of dying after that go up substantially from there.
00:17:12.960 --> 00:17:23.680
However, the actual chances and likelihood that something like this happens are extraordinarily low, which is why you long it anyways, just because it's probably not gonna happen.
00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:24.880
Oh my god.
00:17:25.039 --> 00:17:27.200
Four days following the biggest exploit ever.
00:17:27.519 --> 00:17:32.160
Mercado Bitcoin is hacked for 40 million and EU exchange is hacked for 106 million today.
00:17:32.400 --> 00:17:38.000
I'm telling you, tulip, I'm telling you, man, on these hacks, there's no way it's a nothing burger.
00:17:38.079 --> 00:17:38.880
Not this one.
00:17:39.039 --> 00:17:40.799
This does not feel like a nothing burger.
00:17:40.960 --> 00:17:42.720
XMR, XMR, XMR.
00:17:43.519 --> 00:17:44.799
If they get Coinbase, I'll be worried.
00:17:44.880 --> 00:17:46.160
Bro, if they get Coinbase, it's over.
00:17:46.480 --> 00:17:49.359
You can't worry once they get the it's over thing.
00:17:49.440 --> 00:17:52.079
Because if they get Coinbase, it's so GG's.
00:17:52.240 --> 00:17:53.519
Bro, if they get Coinbase.
00:17:53.680 --> 00:17:55.440
Oh my god, what are you talking about?
00:17:55.680 --> 00:17:57.599
If they get bro, Coinbase?
00:17:57.759 --> 00:17:59.759
There's no they got there's no getting Coinbase.
00:17:59.920 --> 00:18:00.720
They already got buying.
00:18:00.880 --> 00:18:01.759
How's Coinbase bigger?
00:18:02.079 --> 00:18:02.960
Just like it's US.
00:18:03.119 --> 00:18:04.960
You get Coinbase, you get the industry.
00:18:05.359 --> 00:18:10.799
It is 9.29 and 40 seconds on Monday, November 2nd, 2026.
00:18:10.960 --> 00:18:14.400
That means the stock market opens in 13 seconds.
00:18:14.640 --> 00:18:18.480
As always, the stock market open is powered by the counterparty stream.
00:18:18.640 --> 00:18:21.359
Anything you like, want to buy, sell, or trade if you could trade it.
00:18:21.440 --> 00:18:22.400
I'm talking about it.
00:18:22.559 --> 00:18:23.759
It's 9 30 a.m.
00:18:24.000 --> 00:18:25.039
on Monday, November 2nd.
00:18:25.279 --> 00:18:32.400
The stock market 2i opens up 0.48% on the daily.
00:18:32.480 --> 00:18:33.119
We needed it.
00:18:33.200 --> 00:18:36.160
Oh, brother, did we ever fucking need it?
00:18:36.240 --> 00:18:37.200
The IGV is flat.
00:18:37.279 --> 00:18:40.880
The Soxel is up 2%, but candling red on the open.
00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:42.400
Magdrop 0.76.
00:18:42.559 --> 00:18:43.519
IGV is flat.
00:18:43.680 --> 00:18:44.720
Soxul 2%.
00:18:45.039 --> 00:18:46.000
It wants to go.
00:18:46.319 --> 00:18:51.680
Dram still technically up two after a big pre-market, but it's candling red on the open.
00:18:51.759 --> 00:18:53.279
That's about a lose 49.
00:18:53.599 --> 00:18:55.519
IBB is up 0.5%.
00:18:56.319 --> 00:18:57.759
Neocletter deficit is up a quarter.
00:18:57.839 --> 00:18:59.039
Photonic is up 0.18.
00:18:59.200 -->
00:19:01.200
The Dow is up 0.8 and strong.
00:19:01.279 --> 00:19:02.960
The Nasdaq is up 0.2.
00:19:03.599 --> 00:19:10.000
The cosby on yesterday's session was up 2.24%.
00:19:10.480 --> 00:19:11.440
Look at AMD.
00:19:11.519 --> 00:19:12.799
What the it's like nothing.
00:19:12.960 --> 00:19:14.240
Burger at the moment.
00:19:14.400 --> 00:19:18.640
Soxel holding above 78 at the moment.
00:19:18.799 --> 00:19:21.759
And Dram holding above 49 at the moment.
00:19:21.920 --> 00:19:24.400
Coins 776 on BTC.
00:19:24.559 --> 00:19:26.640
2282 on ETH.
00:19:26.720 --> 00:19:28.400
DNAP already with the tweet.
00:19:28.480 --> 00:19:28.960
What do you got?
00:19:29.039 --> 00:19:29.599
What do you got?
00:19:29.680 --> 00:19:30.400
What do you got?
00:19:30.559 --> 00:19:32.799
SpaceX and talks to buy Boost Mobile.
00:19:32.960 --> 00:19:42.240
SpaceX reporting talks with Echo Star over potential acquisition of Boost Mobile or deal to use its wireless network as Elon looks to launch a full-fledged US cell phone service.
00:19:42.799 --> 00:19:45.839
Verizon stock should not be.
00:19:46.000 --> 00:19:49.680
It's down kind of got crushed, but it's only at down point five.
00:19:49.920 --> 00:19:51.599
AT it's just T.
00:19:51.839 --> 00:19:52.559
Yeah, it is just T.
00:19:52.720 --> 00:20:02.079
ATT down point four and echo is up 3.578 M BTC.
00:20:02.240 --> 00:20:03.119
Hypes 86.
00:20:03.279 --> 00:20:04.319
New Year's back over four.
00:20:04.400 --> 00:20:05.440
Pump 41.
00:20:05.680 --> 00:20:06.960
Silver's back above 50.
00:20:07.039 --> 00:20:08.880
Solana's 94.
00:20:09.279 --> 00:20:09.839
Horrible.
00:20:10.160 --> 00:20:10.960
30 years down one.
00:20:11.119 --> 00:20:13.519
The 10 years down one and the two years down 0.15.
00:20:13.680 --> 00:20:15.119
Venice is down three.
00:20:15.279 --> 00:20:17.279
Gold is up two, still under 4K.
00:20:17.359 --> 00:20:18.880
Copper's up a quarter.
00:20:19.039 --> 00:20:20.000
Excuse me, half.
00:20:20.240 --> 00:20:21.599
Monero's back above 600.
00:20:21.680 --> 00:20:24.000
Zek 1267.
00:20:24.640 --> 00:20:25.680
Ansom is short.
00:20:25.839 --> 00:20:26.480
Solana.
00:20:26.799 --> 00:20:27.839
Uh Linkett.
00:20:28.000 --> 00:20:29.599
Soxel about to go red.
00:20:29.839 --> 00:20:30.160
Man.
00:20:30.319 --> 00:20:32.880
The lows are 70 on Soxel, which is disgusting.
00:20:32.960 --> 00:20:34.240
It's about to go red on the daily.
00:20:34.480 --> 00:20:38.559
Dram loses 49, filling the pre-market pump gap.
00:20:38.799 --> 00:20:39.839
Q's still up 0.6.
00:20:40.240 --> 00:20:42.160
Spy's still up 0.48.
00:20:42.480 --> 00:20:43.359
There it goes.
00:20:43.599 --> 00:20:44.880
Soxel up a quarter.
00:20:45.039 --> 00:20:45.680
77.
00:20:46.079 --> 00:20:47.200
It's flat.
00:20:47.519 --> 00:20:48.400
Ugh, god.
00:20:48.559 --> 00:20:49.440
It just continues.
00:20:49.599 --> 00:20:50.240
There it goes.
00:20:50.480 --> 00:20:51.680
Red on the day.
00:20:51.839 --> 00:20:54.640
$77 on Soxel.
00:20:54.799 --> 00:20:57.759
Bitcoin wants to stay above 88.
00:20:58.319 --> 00:21:00.720
Um, Brent Oil is down five and a half.
00:21:00.799 --> 00:21:02.400
Crude is down six.
00:21:02.960 --> 00:21:06.240
You love, love, love to see that.
00:21:06.559 --> 00:21:08.400
Um, Joe Wisemthal tweet.
00:21:08.480 --> 00:21:08.799
What do you got?
00:21:08.880 --> 00:21:10.480
Is this anthropic revenue?
00:21:10.640 --> 00:21:14.640
Anthropic Q3 net loss is 23 billion versus 12.
00:21:18.880 --> 00:21:20.079
Is it is this real though?
00:21:20.240 --> 00:21:23.359
Because I remember seeing that the uh I spell it wrong.
00:21:23.599 --> 00:21:26.880
That the$80 billion loss whatever they posted was not actual loss.
00:21:26.960 --> 00:21:30.880
It was like convertible nodes, uh notes that were more valuable than when they issued them.
00:21:31.200 --> 00:21:32.240
Yeah, the converts.
00:21:32.559 --> 00:21:35.359
It like wasn't real, it's like phantom loss.
00:21:35.759 --> 00:21:41.119
Revenue grew 11, 27 year over year for the three months, and no, it's an operating loss.
00:21:41.200 --> 00:21:43.680
Okay, I don't entirely know how that works, to be honest with you.
00:21:43.920 --> 00:21:45.440
Brent done five and a half.
00:21:45.519 --> 00:21:46.160
Where are we?
00:21:46.880 --> 00:21:49.119
Okay, it's oxal fighting to bounce over.
00:21:49.279 --> 00:21:50.640
So it's a real loss, but it's not huge.
00:21:50.799 --> 00:21:51.359
500 million.
00:21:51.440 --> 00:21:53.680
Okay, all in guys were so bullish.
00:21:53.839 --> 00:21:56.559
Uh war stocks, defense stocks, Raytheon down a quarter.
00:21:56.640 --> 00:21:58.880
Palantir is flat, but red on the open.
00:21:59.039 --> 00:21:59.680
Northup is down.
00:22:00.400 --> 00:22:02.319
And Lockheed Martin is down 0.6.
00:22:02.960 --> 00:22:05.759
Big semis, big AI, everything in between.
00:22:05.920 --> 00:22:06.880
SK Heinex.
00:22:06.960 --> 00:22:08.160
Last night's touch was up 3.8.
00:22:08.240 --> 00:22:11.039
And then biggest gamers, that's K Heinex ADR, is up three.
00:22:11.200 --> 00:22:12.480
Amazon's up two and a half.
00:22:12.559 --> 00:22:14.000
Tus is up two and a half.
00:22:14.240 --> 00:22:15.119
SpaceX is up two.
00:22:15.279 --> 00:22:16.079
Google's up 1.5.
00:22:16.319 --> 00:22:17.519
Nvidia is up 1.5.
00:22:17.759 --> 00:22:18.960
Bloom Energy's up 1.5.
00:22:19.039 --> 00:22:20.559
Qcom up 1.5.
00:22:20.880 --> 00:22:21.759
ASML is up one.
00:22:21.920 --> 00:22:23.440
AMD's up half a percent.
00:22:23.599 --> 00:22:24.559
Meta is red.
00:22:24.640 --> 00:22:25.119
Look at that.
00:22:25.359 --> 00:22:25.920
Down 0.5.
00:22:26.160 --> 00:22:26.960
Microsoft is flat.
00:22:27.119 --> 00:22:31.200
Micron is flat under 900 at 884.
00:22:31.599 --> 00:22:32.559
Volcom is flat.
00:22:32.640 --> 00:22:34.000
Apple's down 0.5%.
00:22:35.200 --> 00:22:38.640
I've held and operated the iPhone Duo.
00:22:38.720 --> 00:22:39.359
It's pretty sick.
00:22:39.440 --> 00:22:40.000
I'm
not gonna lie.
00:22:40.160 --> 00:22:41.200
Did anyone here get one?
00:22:41.440 --> 00:22:45.440
Sand disk is down 1.3, Rocket Lab is down 0.6, Arm is down one.
00:22:45.599 --> 00:22:47.920
Palo Alto, cybersecurity is down two.
00:22:48.400 --> 00:22:51.359
CrowdStrike, cybersecurity is down three.
00:22:51.599 --> 00:22:54.880
Cloudflare, cybersecurity is down five.
00:22:55.359 --> 00:22:55.920
Really?
00:22:56.079 --> 00:22:57.039
Why is it down five?
00:22:57.279 --> 00:23:00.799
DOS is down three, ACS down three, Intel is down another lord.
00:23:00.960 --> 00:23:03.279
Look at this chart on Intel.
00:23:03.519 --> 00:23:09.680
Another three Oracle issued ten billion dollars of additional stock.
00:23:09.920 --> 00:23:12.960
That is down five percent on the open.
00:23:13.200 --> 00:23:18.319
Marvell on the momentum acquisition, down five and a half on all stock deal.
00:23:18.480 --> 00:23:19.599
Firefly is down five.
00:23:19.680 --> 00:23:22.559
So Rebus is about to lose 100.
00:23:22.720 --> 00:23:27.759
That is down nine, excuse me, eight percent on the day.
00:23:28.000 --> 00:23:35.359
Look at this chart, it's now a 22 billion dollar company from all-time high on a uh IPO day.
00:23:35.440 --> 00:23:44.319
So Rebus is down 75 percentage points, and Lumentum on Marvell acquisition is down 12.
00:23:44.799 --> 00:23:47.119
Brutal, pretty nasty washout.
00:23:47.200 --> 00:23:50.000
Bitcoin 78, 1272 on Zach.
00:23:50.240 --> 00:23:55.440
Uh Soxels holding above 77 and Dram holding above 48.
00:23:55.680 --> 00:23:58.319
Gavin Baker tweet about Cerebrus or what?
00:23:59.039 --> 00:23:59.359
Yeah.
00:24:00.319 --> 00:24:00.960
Are we gonna die?
00:24:01.119 --> 00:24:04.480
No, of course we're not gonna die, but things are a little bit grim.
00:24:04.559 --> 00:24:05.440
How's gold doing?
00:24:05.920 --> 00:24:11.599
I don't hate the buy gold thing, but even that feels a little bit like feels like there's nowhere to run, is what it feels like.
00:24:11.759 --> 00:24:13.039
Socks are officially red.
00:24:13.359 --> 00:24:14.880
That's a little bit what it feels like to me.
00:24:15.519 --> 00:24:17.039
Is like there's nowhere to hide.
00:24:17.279 --> 00:24:20.960
All right, uh Sass, consumer, everything.
00:24:21.200 --> 00:24:24.720
Also, Malcolm, if you get a coffee, get me right.
00:24:24.880 --> 00:24:27.920
Um Rivian's up six, Carvana's up five.
00:24:28.319 --> 00:24:29.119
Use cars.
00:24:29.200 --> 00:24:29.599
Who is that?
00:24:29.680 --> 00:24:38.559
Use card tweet, tweak your up five, unity up two and a half, MSTR is up two, Lulu's up two and a half, Airbnb's up two, Z is up two, Cerebrus officially loses a hundred.
00:24:38.799 --> 00:24:40.799
My god, my god.
00:24:41.039 --> 00:24:48.640
Maybe a little oat milk in the uh Americano 777 on BTC, Zach losing it, socks are red again, Dram is about to go red.
00:24:48.720 --> 00:24:50.799
It's oh my god, it's just scary.
00:24:50.960 --> 00:24:52.000
It is scary out here.
00:24:52.240 --> 00:24:52.480
Keep going.
00:24:52.559 --> 00:24:54.240
Uh Lulu's up two and a half.
00:24:54.480 --> 00:24:57.519
By the way, I feel like the baddies are wearing Lululemon again.
00:24:57.599 --> 00:24:59.599
It's Lulu's low-key back outside.
00:24:59.680 --> 00:25:03.440
I don't know what happened, but I'm seeing like I'm seeing some Lulu uh iced.
00:25:03.759 --> 00:25:18.799
Uber's up two, Shopify's up one and a half, Nike's up 1.6, Disney's up 1.6, AMC's up one, Reddit is up one, hood is up one, Roblox is flat, eBay's up a percent, take two is up 0.5 of the batty field report.
00:25:19.039 --> 00:25:21.119
They might be more bullish on Zec than Nier.
00:25:21.599 --> 00:25:23.759
Um, I mean, Nier's traded insane.
00:25:23.920 --> 00:25:29.359
I think at the end of the day, though, like there's nothing to be said for the Zek thesis being so simple.
00:25:29.680 --> 00:25:33.599
Things often get a premium for being like unbelievably simple.
00:25:34.079 --> 00:25:46.880
Um, look at this Nebius down four, core weave down four, Iran down three, Mara down three, Eli Lidley down two, Coinbase down one, himself down point two.
00:25:47.599 --> 00:25:51.759
It's such a weird spot because what is the trade for everything's gonna get hacked forever?
00:25:52.000 --> 00:25:53.759
Fucking cybersecurity, the way that's trading.
00:25:53.920 --> 00:26:06.480
That's cybersecurity, because look, cybersecurity is uh where crowd crowd is down three and a half low of the day, palato's down one and a half, altcoins, altcoins, zach leads up two and a half, monero is second.
00:26:06.559 --> 00:26:09.119
I by the way, uh Elizabeth I think you're right.
00:26:09.359 --> 00:26:11.680
What do the hackers buy every time they buy fucking Monero?
00:26:12.240 --> 00:26:14.319
But why is it to trade so shit?
00:26:14.480 --> 00:26:15.359
I like I like it.
00:26:15.440 --> 00:26:16.079
I don't know.
00:26:16.400 --> 00:26:23.039
Again, I'm I'm I'm fully still the only three things you could own coins wise for me is uh an ETH.
00:26:23.200 --> 00:26:27.440
You lose me an ETH is Monero, Zach, and PTC.
00:26:27.680 --> 00:26:37.680
Outside of that, I just um Chip is down 10, Connect's down five, grass is down five, Monet is down four, uh Jito's down three and a half, Pith is down three.
00:26:37.759 --> 00:26:39.440
Dude, I saw the pith ad in New York.
00:26:39.519 --> 00:26:40.880
It was crazy, like on the subway.
00:26:41.119 --> 00:26:41.839
Outside of the subway.
00:26:42.000 --> 00:26:48.000
Arb's up three, Jupiter's down two or down three, Jupiter's down two point six, Pepe's down two point seven five.
00:26:48.640 --> 00:26:52.319
Huge state actors can't use XMR, no liquidity.
00:26:52.480 --> 00:26:53.279
Yeah, I don't know.
00:26:53.440 --> 00:27:01.359
Ave's down two, far coins on two, Penguin's down two, Tao's down two, tawn is down two, Bitcoin 77.7.
00:27:01.759 --> 00:27:02.960
Yeah, not a whole lot of anything.
00:27:03.039 --> 00:27:04.319
Hype, not in the top three worth owning.
00:27:04.480 --> 00:27:06.799
Nah, hype two, hype two, hype two, hype two, hype two.
00:27:07.119 --> 00:27:07.839
Sorry, sorry.
00:27:08.000 --> 00:27:09.599
The perp taxes I agree with.
00:27:09.680 --> 00:27:11.519
I mostly meant on the like the hacking.
00:27:11.759 --> 00:27:12.400
We get it, dude.
00:27:12.480 --> 00:27:13.119
Hype, hype.
00:27:13.200 --> 00:27:13.920
You guys own hype.
00:27:14.079 --> 00:27:14.559
Fuck.
00:27:14.960 --> 00:27:15.839
Man, I get it.
00:27:15.920 --> 00:27:16.640
You own hype.
00:27:17.039 --> 00:27:17.440
Fuck.
00:27:17.599 --> 00:27:20.400
I meant as a direct response to hacks.
00:27:20.799 --> 00:27:22.400
God, you don't leave it at one time.
00:27:24.720 --> 00:27:26.240
The dot HLs are ridiculous.
00:27:26.559 --> 00:27:30.400
Brent's on six, and crude is on six point three.
00:27:30.799 --> 00:27:34.240
Dare I look at on chain right now.
00:27:34.319 --> 00:27:35.440
All right, on chain, what do we got?
00:27:35.519 --> 00:27:35.920
How bad is it?
00:27:36.400 --> 00:27:39.839
IMD 15 cards 200.
00:27:40.079 --> 00:27:42.240
Kimchi 3.6, pawns.
00:27:42.319 --> 00:27:44.079
Somebody was in the pit talking about buying pawns.
00:27:44.240 --> 00:27:45.200
I was like, what the fuck?
00:27:45.519 --> 00:27:48.720
157 AI 61.
00:27:49.279 --> 00:27:51.519
Useless 127.
00:27:52.000 --> 00:27:54.319
Ansome 45.
00:27:55.440 --> 00:27:56.799
Meme 6.
00:27:57.119 --> 00:27:59.200
Kcoin 36.
00:27:59.680 --> 00:28:00.000
Oh.
00:28:00.480 --> 00:28:02.319
Nio 850k.
00:28:02.559 --> 00:28:04.880
Boner, boner, boner, boner.
00:28:05.039 --> 00:28:05.680
Oh my god.
00:28:05.839 --> 00:28:06.799
That looks so bad.
00:28:07.039 --> 00:28:08.799
FWA is a low blow.
00:28:09.279 --> 00:28:10.400
I know, by the way.
00:28:10.559 --> 00:28:12.079
Like, what the fuck?
00:28:12.240 --> 00:28:13.359
What the fuck was that?
00:28:13.519 --> 00:28:14.480
FWA.
00:28:14.880 --> 00:28:16.079
Yo, yo, yo, Mr.
00:28:16.160 --> 00:28:16.480
Mert.
00:28:16.720 --> 00:28:17.200
Hello, sir.
00:28:17.279 --> 00:28:17.839
How you doing?
00:28:18.000 --> 00:28:19.359
Um, incredible, man.
00:28:19.599 --> 00:28:20.880
How are you doing?
00:28:20.960 --> 00:28:21.440
Welcome back.
00:28:21.599 --> 00:28:22.160
I've been better.
00:28:22.480 --> 00:28:24.000
Dude, you're kind of like our doom guest now.
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I don't know how this happened exactly, but you're like, the world might be ending.
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Who do we call?
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Let's just call Mert type of guest.
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The last one was about Justin Drake, which at least we don't talk about Eth holder today.
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And today is about a I don't know, a doom vague post you made, which we should get into some details, but you tweeted, and I quote, which is a scary one from you.
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Man, I have never seen anything like this.
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Enter, enter hacks after hacks after hacks, enter, enter.
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An actual world war is happening on the internet at the moment.
00:28:56.799 --> 00:28:59.839
Send tweet, log off for a day.
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Okay.
00:29:01.279 --> 00:29:03.440
I mean, first of all, Jesus.
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Second of all, what sparked and what was that tweet in reference to specifically, but then more broadly?
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Well, I think it's no secret that anybody who's been paying attention on the internet on Twitter, x.com, has seen pretty much hacks being reported on, I would say a daily cadence, especially if you're a regular retail user.
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But if you're an engineer or a technical person, you're seeing way more than that because generally speaking, engineers have specific channels they watch for, like, oh, a new vulnerability was found, whatever.
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And you would get these things like once a week, depending on the severity, once a month, whatever.
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But now you're seeing like 20 a day, and it's everything.
00:29:48.000 --> 00:30:06.960
So, for example, just this morning I woke up, I logged on, and the first thing I saw is Belgium, Sweden, France, Luxembourg, Finland, and like five other countries just are getting their fridges hacked, and uh some of them are blowing up entirely.
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Uh, and that is on top of obviously Binance hacked, and then I just logged on a few minutes ago, and I saw Mercado hacked, and then some other European exchange hacked.
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Uh, I don't know which one it is yet.
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Uh, and so, and by the way, like the thing to understand here is um you're seeing basically only the casualty numbers, right?
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So imagine something like the Ukraine-Russia war, where drones are being launched at all times, but you really only hear about it when they break through and like destroy a refinery or something.
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And so what you're seeing is actually a subset, a small subset of all attacks underway right now.
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Uh, so like I know a bunch of teams that have been under attack myself.
00:30:50.240 --> 00:30:57.599
Uh, we've been under attack certainly a few times, and uh, it's just there's a lot of it's it's it's ugly.
00:30:58.160 --> 00:31:09.920
Can you explain why there feels to be this divergence between all of the smart people in technical smart people, CEO of Shopify, everybody's sort of out in public and saying, oh my god, it's so over.
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And then the vast majority of non-hackers, not super technical people are saying none of this matters.
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And despite all of these hacks being reported, you know, PHP exploit, it kind of feels like nothing happened at the end of it.
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There was all this doom and gloom, and like, you know, it's all over, and then nothing happened.
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I woke up a couple days later and I haven't heard PHP in like 10 days.
00:31:32.400 --> 00:31:38.960
Like, what why is there this severe feels like uh understanding from both sides of where we're actually at?
00:31:39.200 --> 00:31:49.519
Yeah, so this is this is actually a good point, um, which is to say when it comes to things that aren't crypto, it's very hard to actually steal money.
00:31:49.759 --> 00:31:55.839
Uh, and generally what will happen is, for example, you'll hack a smart fridge and the temperature will go up or something.
00:31:55.920 --> 00:32:02.240
And let's say food supply for the next three days is uh ruined, right?
00:32:02.400 --> 00:32:06.480
That's pretty bad, but it's not like, oh shit, the world has ended bad.
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Or the the most common that you'll see is, for example, Chainalysis announced this, but so did like a hundred other teams, is like, yeah, by the way, your emails are now leaked.
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Um, or the ledger and treasure hacks, for example, were not the devices themselves necessarily being hacked, although that also happened if you got from like a sketchy reseller.
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But it was mostly that, oh, your shipping address is now leaked, and you're so it's a lot of data mining, like people are just stealing data, and then that data gets sold on the dark web to other hackers, which then use that to target you.
00:32:39.839 --> 00:32:51.680
And so that is to say, the pain is not direct when it comes to non-crypto things, it might never happen, or it might happen like indiscreetly, such that you're not really aware.
00:32:51.839 --> 00:32:57.839
With crypto, it's different, obviously, because it's the money is just there and it's generally speaking not reversible.
00:32:58.079 --> 00:33:05.359
So you have somebody like Binance, they get hacked, that money is just gone, and they have to get Jeremy and Paulo on the phone to freeze it.
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And then luckily Binance is rich enough to cover it.
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But so that's a disconnect, right?
00:33:09.119 --> 00:33:16.799
Like most of these hacks, and by the way, there you you must also give credit to the engineers that work on some of the big companies, right?
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Uh like the Googles and Apples of the world are under what I assume are insane attacks, and but they have teams within teams within teams, uh, helping stop these things, right?
00:33:29.039 --> 00:33:30.799
So that's that's the disconnect.
00:33:30.880 --> 00:33:35.039
Um, it definitely affects engineers more because we have to actually work on it.
00:33:35.119 --> 00:33:36.880
It's a disproportionate amount of time.
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It's like the one good analogy is like it's like the US-Iran thing where if you remember, uh, they were just launching shit tons of drones, yeah.
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And then people were like, oh, well, the interceptors are gonna run out because it's more expensive to produce the interceptor than it is for the drone.
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It's kind of dissimilar for like engineering companies, which is to say, we're just spending all day, every day just upgrading these systems and defending.
00:34:02.240 --> 00:34:08.079
Um, and that's just very much more painful for the engineer than it is for the average user.
00:34:08.400 --> 00:34:12.480
It's a good point that like people only freak out when you see the dollar amount.
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And so when someone's like, your data's been leaked from Coinbase, I'm like, okay, cool, my day, my identity's been stolen nine times, and my data's been leaked a thousand times over the course.
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When I pay taxes, I have to like get a pin from the IRS because I've had my identity stolen so many times.
00:34:26.159 --> 00:34:32.719
So, from that point, can can you sort of lay out what you would think is the worst case scenario from here?
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Like, what outcome are you the most concerned about?
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And generally speaking, how would it play?
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Like, what would get hacked, what would come down, what would be your like doom scenario, and how likely like likely do you think it is?
00:34:45.039 --> 00:34:47.599
I I think there's a lot of worst-case scenarios.
00:34:47.679 --> 00:35:07.039
It's I always like to use actual war as an analogy here because, for example, you might put up defenses and and I'll build a wall and have the biggest army and tanks and all this, but then you have to account for the Navy and then not just the Navy, but the submarines, and then the Air Force, and then the Space Force now, and then cyber, and then economics, and then sanctions.
00:35:07.119 --> 00:35:14.079
So there's so many different vectors to keep track of that it's hard to say, well, which one is actually worse?
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Um the one of the ones that was recent uh was about internet certificates, which would allow people to basically forge legit websites.
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Um and so you wouldn't even know you're being hacked in some sets.
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That's crazy.
00:35:27.280 --> 00:35:36.719
Uh depending depending on um what what you're you know, I think it's I think it's highly unlikely that, for example, a bank gets hacked.
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Because even if you tried as a user to move your money, that's a slow process there.
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So if you're hacking it, the banks are all interconnected, they can call the other bank and be like, stop, right?
00:35:47.199 --> 00:35:50.320
And so I think something that catastrophic, not likely.
00:35:50.480 --> 00:35:59.280
Um, I would hope that um
so one thing that would be pretty bad, of course, is uh, or or let me rephrase so nobody panics.
00:35:59.519 --> 00:36:05.519
I think the big companies like the Microsofts and Googles and Apples of the world are prepared against this.
00:36:05.760 --> 00:36:20.559
Um, I think what I'm more worried about is individual users just getting like the the the number of individual losses in terms of like, so for example, assume you lost your email access, assume somebody just accessed your email.
00:36:20.719 --> 00:36:25.199
Well, depending on how you set up your shit, that can really fuck you, right?
00:36:25.360 --> 00:36:34.719
Because if you have your email, like you have one master email, you can log into most websites if you also have one other piece of information, generally speaking.
00:36:35.039 --> 00:36:38.559
Um and these are getting very sophisticated too, right?
00:36:38.639 --> 00:36:43.039
There was a recent attack where it was actually coming from a legit Google domain.
00:36:43.199 --> 00:36:48.639
And so let's say you do all your homework, you don't click fishy links, whatever, and then you see an email from Google.
00:36:48.960 --> 00:36:52.559
Okay, well, in certain cases, if you click that, you're still fucked.
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Right.
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And so, or or actually there was like another crazy one uh last night that I just saw, which is Russia hacked Ukraine's uh defense uh alert systems, and um Ukraine then hacked Russia back, and so you're a citizen in those countries, and on your phone it says there are nukes heading towards you, leave now or something crazy.
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This happened yesterday.
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Um, they were just hacking each other, they're saying, Oh, radioactive containment, whatever.
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Like, imagine you got that message in New York City.
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Um, like it's not a pleasant thing, and and so it's very hard to point to one horrible thing happening as opposed to just like just a thousand cuts, like, oh, this thing leaked, this thing is broken, and it's just exhausting.
00:37:40.239 --> 00:37:42.480
I think I think that's my baseline, worst case.
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What do you think is I don't think they can hack like a bank.
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What's the I agree with in the bank situation, by the way.
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Like your money in Bank of America is not going away.
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Um, what what is the incentive for like the fridge hacker?
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Like why who's doing it?
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Why are they doing it?
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Is can they have a financial outcome?
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I guess you could like you know, short Whole Foods or whatever, but uh I don't feel like a few steps away.
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What is the incentive for these like gorilla hacking type of plays?
00:38:14.239 --> 00:38:21.199
Well, a why question is always very hard to determine, but certainly there's a multitude of ranges, right?
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Anything from nation states who, let's say, particularly don't like the EU, let's say, uh, or literally a disgruntled teenager from Estonia, some like an Eastern European guy.
00:38:32.559 --> 00:38:32.719
Yeah.
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Because AI has changed the economics of this, right?
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Before, if you needed to find these hacks, you'd have to spend an insane amount of manual work for basically no outcome, like other than a temporary disturbance.
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Now it's not super difficult, right?
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You find one weak entry point, whether it's an unpatched server or some weird unpatched internet thing, just one person working at these companies, which is what happened with Binance.
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Um, and then you just let your trillion agents do the rest of the work.
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So the economics are now very different for attack versus defense.
00:39:07.280 --> 00:39:10.320
Has there been like a golden age of hacking, like early internet?
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Was there like a golden era of hacking that sort of dissolved out and we were done with it?
00:39:15.679 --> 00:39:17.360
Like, has has is that a thing that's happened before?
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Like, have we seen something like this before where everything, all these websites were terrible and everybody was just getting exploited in like early days of the internet?
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I think it was more of a constant thing.
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Um, because the earlier the internet, then the less stuff there was on it to begin with, anyway.
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But now everything is connected on the internet.
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And so just regardless of what's happened in the past, today everything runs, everything is connected.
00:39:42.239 --> 00:39:55.039
Uh, IoT, you know, I believe even uh a Chinese airline or something ticketing system got hacked, and like there were like nine, 10 hour waits um before they were able to sort it out.
00:39:55.199 --> 00:40:00.400
So, like everything, like there's no reason your smart fridge should be connected to the fucking internet.
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This is my take earlier, bro.
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My TV, my computer, my phone, my uh whatever, Google Home, whatever, my my your microwave has fucking Wi-Fi, my fridge has it, your Tesla, it's in garage clicker, your eight sleep, my fucking uh Dyson toothbrush, it's insane.
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Like, how do we get there?
00:40:21.519 --> 00:40:22.239
That's insane.
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Everything is connected to the internet.
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Exactly.
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Yeah.
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I mean, you know, it's in theory, it's good for consumers and all this type of stuff.
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But if there's a very specific type of engineer um who only buys non-electric cars, who has guns in their house, uh, and who basically doesn't trust any device ever.
00:40:42.400 --> 00:40:44.079
Uh, I'm sort of getting there.
00:40:44.159 --> 00:40:45.519
I'm still a little too young for that.
00:40:45.599 --> 00:40:53.519
But the older types of like 40-year-olds with like the neckbeard types, those are the guys who have been extremely vindicated.
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Hunter Beast.
00:40:54.800 --> 00:40:55.840
I don't I don't know who that is.
00:40:56.000 --> 00:40:56.239
Okay.
00:40:56.480 --> 00:41:00.559
But uh I like Trent from Solana, for example, is a good example.
00:41:00.880 --> 00:41:02.800
What do you want to own in a scenario?
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Like, if you think hacks are gonna be up only, what do you want to own?
00:41:06.079 --> 00:41:09.360
Like, like, how do the cybersecurity stocks benefit from this?
00:41:09.440 --> 00:41:12.079
Like, what do you want to own in a scenario where hacks are up only?
00:41:12.159 --> 00:41:13.119
Like, do you just go all in?
00:41:13.199 --> 00:41:19.440
You just like trust Zcash cryptography, you just trust Bitcoin cryptography and think that these uniquely benefit?
00:41:19.679 --> 00:41:30.159
So I don't know about the timing of these, but um actually when AI first came out, uh 2023, 2024, that is the first thing I did, which is I just loaded up on cybersecurity stocks.
00:41:30.320 --> 00:41:35.199
Uh, the particular one that I did was Palo Alto Networks, which has done very well since then.
00:41:35.440 --> 00:41:35.679
It has.
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Indian CEO, etc.
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I was like, okay, this is not this is not gonna fail me.
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I I know this is gonna work.
00:41:40.960 --> 00:41:43.360
And um so I think that could be interesting.
00:41:43.519 --> 00:41:48.000
Um, I think AI companies themselves, like, it really depends on the valuation.
00:41:48.079 --> 00:41:49.599
Obviously, it's hard to say.
00:41:49.840 --> 00:41:56.480
But my thesis is that probably a third to a half of their token spend will actually come from cybersecurity.
00:41:56.639 --> 00:41:57.039
Whoa.
00:41:57.519 --> 00:42:00.880
Um, because like the economics have changed now, right?
00:42:00.960 --> 00:42:12.239
Because like if the attackers are wasting these tokens on finding vulnerabilities, you need to spend the tokens on defending against the vulnerabilities and proactively monitoring and all these different things.
00:42:12.559 --> 00:42:20.320
So uh, in terms of like your other point of okay, well, like do you trust crypto and and and and Bitcoin and Zcash?
00:42:20.559 --> 00:42:43.360
I want to make it very clear that these are rather different um types of systems, which when I last came on, if you remember, I said
something like the probability of hacks is multiple orders of magnitude higher than fundamental cryptography breaking, which was Justin Drake's bunker mode point, which I think is still wrong.
00:42:43.599 --> 00:42:49.440
Um, I I think still there is no credible anything to point to cryptography breaking.
00:42:49.519 --> 00:43:00.639
I think be like one example I'll give you here is like who's really tried hacking smart fridges at your local supermarket versus who's tried breaking elliptic curves, right?
00:43:00.880 --> 00:43:05.599
One has probably a trillion dollars behind it, the other probably like eight people have tried.
00:43:05.679 --> 00:43:09.280
Like it's just not the same level of scrutiny.
00:43:09.519 --> 00:43:26.800
Um, and so you can sort of have that faith, but also you can have the like with an L1 specifically, not a smart contract on the L1, but the L1 itself, you're you're, I think, pretty safe because even in the worst case, the L1 can just roll back or it can fork, right?
00:43:26.880 --> 00:43:32.239
The validators are incentivized to work together to be like if the L1 itself is broken, we roll back.
00:43:32.320 --> 00:43:34.960
This has happened many times in blockchain history.
00:43:35.199 --> 00:43:42.800
So I'm I'm personally not worried about storing funds that are not bridged, uh, the native tokens on the native chains themselves.
00:43:43.039 --> 00:43:43.840
It's a great take.
00:43:43.920 --> 00:43:46.960
Um, that's a more specific than the uh the vague dooming you're doing.
00:43:47.119 --> 00:43:48.079
Okay, I got two more for you.
00:43:48.159 --> 00:43:48.800
I'll let you go.
00:43:48.880 --> 00:43:53.679
Um, number one, I'm curious on this perfect security concept.
00:43:53.760 --> 00:43:59.599
Like I can imagine at Helios you're getting slaughtered, or I would imagine there's moments of people trying to crack and and break into.
00:44:00.159 --> 00:44:02.960
Of your systems, like how secure do you feel?
00:44:03.280 --> 00:44:17.519
Based off how secure you think everybody else feels, and do you think you get to this point where you're like, okay, we have achieved it internally, perfect security, you know, validated by the latest frontier model, uncrackable, unhackable?
00:44:17.760 --> 00:44:21.519
I think again, it's I'm gonna make the same analogy, which is the war analogy.
00:44:21.679 --> 00:44:34.719
Like it's it's sort of how you would consider a country's defense spending, which is to say, okay, you have um air defense missiles, you have a cybersecurity team, you have a navy, you have nukes, all these different things.
00:44:34.880 --> 00:44:36.079
That's all fine.
00:44:36.320 --> 00:44:41.920
But what's important is how do you keep that up to date as other weapons evolve?
00:44:42.079 --> 00:44:44.800
And then also, what do you do if you do get attacked, right?
00:44:44.960 --> 00:44:45.920
Incident management.
00:44:46.159 --> 00:44:55.519
And so one silver line that I'll say on a more optimistic note is that this probably gets a bit worse before it gets better, but it is gonna get better, right?
00:44:55.599 --> 00:44:56.960
Like there's only so many different things.
00:44:57.119 --> 00:44:58.000
What do you think worse looks like?
00:44:58.559 --> 00:44:59.519
Like, what are you waiting for?
00:44:59.599 --> 00:45:01.280
What do you what are you waiting for?
00:45:08.960 --> 00:45:12.880
Probably a major company getting hacked.
00:45:13.119 --> 00:45:15.440
Um like Apple ID would be pretty bad.
00:45:15.519 --> 00:45:19.440
Like Apple, everybody's like Apple uh like phone data would be pretty bad.
00:45:19.760 --> 00:45:24.320
What one other thing could be like we've already seen this, like a browser just being completely zero day.
00:45:24.719 --> 00:45:28.639
But um, we have seen that these things are fixed hyper fast.
00:45:28.719 --> 00:45:35.360
And so as a user, as long as you have very fast updates, like if you're on Chrome and it says update, fucking update, like doing it.
00:45:35.519 --> 00:45:37.920
But how would you know the update isn't a hack?
00:45:38.079 --> 00:45:40.719
Like if you hacked Chrome, could you push a nefarious update?
00:45:40.880 --> 00:45:51.280
Everybody updates it, and then you're actually fucking that I I'm not familiar with the exact system they use, but that does seem and also by the way, you would see all about it on Twitter.
00:45:51.440 --> 00:45:52.239
Like you wouldn't have to do.
00:45:54.159 --> 00:45:56.639
After everyone got fucked.
00:45:58.079 --> 00:46:01.360
With with an operating system specifically, it's extremely unlikely.
00:46:01.440 --> 00:46:02.880
Like if it's an Apple upgrade.
00:46:03.039 --> 00:46:12.239
Um with a Google upgrade, it's that also seems extremely unlikely to me because if you can already do that, then you already have access to certain systems that you wouldn't need to do that.
00:46:12.480 --> 00:46:13.119
Okay, okay, okay.
00:46:13.519 --> 00:46:18.480
Um, but again, uh that's also another point, which is you have to use trusted channels, right?
00:46:18.639 --> 00:46:24.639
Like just you trust is much more of an important factor here than uh anything else.
00:46:24.880 --> 00:46:28.960
Uh but okay, so to to answer your ask your question of like, okay, what am I waiting for?
00:46:29.119 --> 00:46:31.920
Um honestly, I don't even know what to wait for.
00:46:32.079 --> 00:46:38.880
Um just I'm just extremely paranoid on absolutely everything, and I think that's probably a safe default.
00:46:39.119 --> 00:46:41.920
Okay, I I I added one to my last two, I so I have two more.
00:46:42.079 --> 00:46:48.960
Number one, can you explain what a um a hardware zero day is, if that's possible, and what the implications are of that?
00:46:49.039 --> 00:46:50.239
I've seen people tweet about this.
00:46:50.559 --> 00:46:58.880
Like a zero day is basically um when they discover something just like right on the open, just like that.
00:46:59.039 --> 00:47:01.840
Like on the something that's never been seen before.
00:47:02.079 --> 00:47:04.800
And basically, it has live implications.
00:47:04.880 --> 00:47:05.039
Okay.
00:47:05.280 --> 00:47:12.000
Um, which is to say, if there's a zero day on your phone, let's say Apple announces it, you have to upgrade right away, right?
00:47:12.159 --> 00:47:12.480
Wow.
00:47:12.719 --> 00:47:20.880
Now there are you know mitigating factors in that, like, look, you're not gonna be able to hack every single device on Earth.
00:47:21.039 --> 00:47:27.039
Like, that just requires, to Deb's last point, an extreme amount of connectedness and compute and all these resources.
00:47:27.280 --> 00:47:27.760
Yep.
00:47:28.000 --> 00:47:31.760
Um, so it's actually much more important for companies, right?
00:47:31.840 --> 00:47:47.760
For example, there was a Linux zero day um which um basically allowed it such that if you'd sent a certain type of traffic to a server without any passwords, without anything else, just sending traffic, you could just take over that computer, which is like pretty insane.
00:47:47.840 --> 00:47:49.280
Uh, that is what Toby said this year.
00:47:49.519 --> 00:47:50.239
Okay, that was the tweet.
00:47:50.320 --> 00:47:50.719
Got it.
00:47:51.119 --> 00:47:51.760
Yeah.
00:47:52.320 --> 00:47:58.800
And so luckily though, that that was you know pretty quickly patched by pretty much everybody I'm aware of.
00:47:59.119 --> 00:48:04.480
Um, and so one thing that has been good to see is like everybody's sort of on guard.
00:48:05.119 --> 00:48:12.159
Um, so like I don't want I don't want people kind of their takeaway from this episode to be like, okay, we're fucked, it's over.
00:48:12.320 --> 00:48:19.519
It's more like just be paranoid and stay ready, but you have a lot of help, but you still need to do the basics right, right?
00:48:19.599 --> 00:48:24.079
Like use a Yubi key for your own accounts, get two, not just one.
00:48:24.480 --> 00:48:26.320
Um, never use SMS.
00:48:26.480 --> 00:48:26.719
Ever.
00:48:26.960 --> 00:48:27.519
Really, ever.
00:48:27.840 --> 00:48:29.840
Uh do not use SMS.
00:48:30.000 --> 00:48:30.159
Why?
00:48:30.320 --> 00:48:31.519
That's just absolutely not.
00:48:31.760 --> 00:48:34.559
Because it's just so vulnerable in so many different dimensions, right?
00:48:34.639 --> 00:48:38.239
Like I think there was a very recent exploit of like voicemail.
00:48:38.400 --> 00:48:44.400
People can just take over certain aspects of your uh SMS and in your sim by voicemail, right?
00:48:44.480 --> 00:48:47.360
And and so just never use SMS, it's just not a good idea.
00:48:47.599 --> 00:48:51.599
Um, use a password manager um to the extent possible.
00:48:51.679 --> 00:48:56.960
Like if you're using Proton Mail, use a different email for every single site you send, sign, sign, sign up for.
00:48:57.119 --> 00:49:00.000
Um, quick updates, you know, trust the channels.
00:49:00.079 --> 00:49:02.400
Do not fucking click any like weird
shit.
00:49:02.639 --> 00:49:05.360
Only go to like the known.coms.
00:49:05.599 --> 00:49:08.559
And there's a bunch of like Opset guys like this you can find online.
00:49:08.800 --> 00:49:10.079
You can even just ask Claude.
00:49:10.400 --> 00:49:11.360
Just do the basics right.
00:49:11.440 --> 00:49:13.840
The basics are probably 90% of the effort.
00:49:14.159 --> 00:49:15.679
Okay, my last question, I'll let you go.
00:49:15.760 --> 00:49:17.039
This is this was actually pretty sick, by the way.
00:49:17.119 --> 00:49:17.760
Thank you for doing it.
00:49:17.920 --> 00:49:18.880
I'm not trying to get you in trouble.
00:49:18.960 --> 00:49:20.079
I'm not trying to clickbait you in this one.
00:49:20.159 --> 00:49:24.480
I actually just curious, you could maybe take a pause and I I won't let my clippers bait you.
00:49:24.800 --> 00:49:32.079
But um, where does hyperliquid rank on vulnerability level here?
00:49:32.320 --> 00:49:35.360
And is that something that we should be thinking about?
00:49:35.519 --> 00:49:38.639
Tradex BZ just posted something that they were getting attacked at some level.
00:49:38.719 --> 00:49:41.440
Like, where is hyperliquid on the vulnerability scale here?
00:49:41.760 --> 00:49:46.400
It's pretty hard to say because I don't think their code is still open source.
00:49:46.800 --> 00:49:52.079
So I'd be just going off intuition and a lot of assumptions I'm making that are vibes-based.
00:49:52.320 --> 00:49:58.960
One thing I'll say is I think the biggest bridges in and out of hyperliquid are units, uh, hyperunit with Shoku.
00:50:00.079 --> 00:50:05.840
And I think that's a choke point that Shoku can close off pretty fast.
00:50:06.079 --> 00:50:08.239
Um, and I think they have been doing work on it.
00:50:08.320 --> 00:50:11.599
So if there was like a big hack, it's like, how do you get off hyperliquid?
00:50:11.760 --> 00:50:17.039
And it's generally through hyperunit, as far as I'm aware, maybe there's some other weird ones, but I'm guessing they're lower liquidity.
00:50:17.280 --> 00:50:17.840
So you're stuck.
00:50:18.079 --> 00:50:22.320
Well, then I think yeah, like Shoku would just shut you off, is how I see it.
00:50:22.559 --> 00:50:35.519
Um and then with hyperliquid, I think it's since it's a bit more, let's say the core team is very influential in like the activities on the chain, I think they'd be able to respond pretty fast.
00:50:35.760 --> 00:50:41.760
As opposed to like a Bitcoin, if there's like a huge issue on Bitcoin, how are you gonna coordinate that many people, right?
00:50:41.840 --> 00:50:43.199
That's just that's pretty tough.
00:50:43.440 --> 00:50:46.559
So I I'm I'm not super worried about hyperliquid.
00:50:46.639 --> 00:50:50.800
I think something could happen, as with anything else, but it seems like they have the right things in place there.
00:50:51.119 --> 00:50:52.400
Mert you're the goat, dude.
00:50:52.480 --> 00:50:54.079
The doom posts are killing me when you do them.
00:50:54.239 --> 00:50:55.760
But you are a reasonable guy when you come on.
00:50:55.840 --> 00:51:00.480
You're uh our resident zero day panic, doom or gloomer that comes on and tells us it's all gonna be okay.
00:51:00.559 --> 00:51:03.840
So as long as you keep telling us it's gonna be okay, I I think it is.
00:51:03.920 --> 00:51:04.880
Um you're the man.
00:51:04.960 --> 00:51:05.360
Anything else?
00:51:05.440 --> 00:51:07.519
Anything you want to show, uh send people to?
00:51:07.760 --> 00:51:09.840
Any uh anything to add at the very end?
00:51:10.079 --> 00:51:10.320
Nope.
00:51:10.400 --> 00:51:11.519
Just buy a YubiKey.
00:51:11.679 --> 00:51:12.639
Yeah, buy a YubiKey.
00:51:13.119 --> 00:51:15.360
You got a uh like a ref link?
00:51:15.519 --> 00:51:17.840
No, I don't uh just buy the stock.
00:51:17.920 --> 00:51:18.880
It's I got you, brother.
00:51:18.960 --> 00:51:19.360
Bye Mert.
00:51:19.440 --> 00:51:20.320
I'll see you in the next one, bro.
00:51:20.400 --> 00:51:20.960
Thanks for coming on.
00:51:21.119 --> 00:51:21.360
Much love.
00:51:21.519 --> 00:51:21.920
All right, peace.
00:51:22.159 --> 00:51:22.400
Thank you.
00:51:22.480 --> 00:51:22.880
Bye bye.
00:51:23.199 --> 00:51:23.840
Seems like we're fine.
00:51:24.480 --> 00:51:25.599
Seems like we're fine, no?
00:51:25.760 --> 00:51:26.480
What do you think?
00:51:26.719 --> 00:51:27.440
I don't know.
00:51:27.599 --> 00:51:29.039
I it's a weird one.
00:51:29.119 --> 00:51:33.519
I the the thing for me continues to be that yeah, we we we good.
00:51:33.599 --> 00:51:34.400
Mert's handling it.
00:51:34.559 --> 00:51:45.440
Here's the thing is like you make a good point, he makes a good point where it's like, okay, the main incentive for hacking is just like crypto systems, which have been the main incentive forever, which people have been trying to hack forever.
00:51:45.679 --> 00:51:48.719
Now there's obviously a work, I can't spell.
00:51:48.800 --> 00:51:50.000
Is that like shocking to you?
00:51:50.239 --> 00:51:51.679
Calci tweet question mark.
00:51:51.840 --> 00:51:54.880
German politicians' iPhone have been hacked by possible spyware.
00:51:55.360 --> 00:52:01.920
Okay, the main financial outcome is hacking a crypto system, obviously, an exchange or whatever.
00:52:02.000 --> 00:52:03.119
You can fucking get off.
00:52:03.280 --> 00:52:04.960
There's been two, there was two today.
00:52:05.199 --> 00:52:06.960
For some reason, I'm just not concerned.
00:52:07.039 --> 00:52:11.599
I don't know if I'm supposed to be concerned, but if my money gets hacked on Coinbase, I'm getting the money back.
00:52:11.760 --> 00:52:14.480
And if I don't get it back, then the whole world is over.
00:52:14.639 --> 00:52:16.400
So that's is what that is.
00:52:16.639 --> 00:52:24.079
The hyperliquid thing would be extremely unfortunate, and I give it a pretty low probability, but it would also be over if that happened.
00:52:24.239 --> 00:52:27.599
And so I'm gonna just assume that it's not gonna happen.
00:52:27.920 --> 00:52:31.119
If you have money in orbit and it gets hacked, you're not getting your money back.
00:52:31.199 --> 00:52:32.559
But why do you have money in orbit?
00:52:32.719 --> 00:52:38.880
Money in my Bank of America account is not getting hacked, and even if it does get hacked, I'm getting made whole.
00:52:39.119 --> 00:52:42.559
And there's no scenario in which I don't get made whole off of that.
00:52:42.639 --> 00:52:46.800
And if there was a scenario in which I didn't get made whole from Bank of America, the world's over anyway, so who cares?
00:52:47.039 --> 00:52:50.960
If my phone data gets hacked, well, it already is.
00:52:51.199 --> 00:52:53.920
My identity's been stolen like 20 times.
00:52:54.159 --> 00:53:00.239
I have to file a pin with the IRS because somebody actually paid taxes under my name one time, which was crazy.
00:53:00.320 --> 00:53:02.159
I don't know who would do that, but they did.
00:53:02.400 --> 00:53:05.039
And so that isn't that big of a deal.
00:53:05.199 --> 00:53:07.519
If my email data gets hacked, not a big deal.
00:53:07.599 --> 00:53:09.199
It's already happened, I can imagine.
00:53:09.360 --> 00:53:15.280
If my iMessage history got hacked, that would be unfortunate, but it's probably already happened.
00:53:15.519 --> 00:53:25.119
If my Instagram DMs got hacked, um it wouldn't be ideal.
00:53:25.280 --> 00:53:27.199
Yeah, it wouldn't be ideal on that.
00:53:27.280 --> 00:53:28.559
I'll just come out and say it.
00:53:28.639 --> 00:53:29.760
It wouldn't, it wouldn't be ideal.
00:53:29.920 --> 00:53:30.719
That wouldn't be ideal.
00:53:30.880 --> 00:53:35.039
My shooting percentage at the rim is like I uh it's gonna be a big week.
00:53:35.199 --> 00:53:43.599
Lock the fuck in, strap in, get focused, let's get our shit together and let's have a good one.
00:53:43.679 --> 00:53:45.760
I love you, I appreciate you.
00:53:46.079 --> 00:53:48.320
If you're new here, I'm live every morning, 8 30 a.m.
00:53:48.400 --> 00:53:48.719
EST.
00:53:48.800 --> 00:53:50.480
It's really like 8 41, give or take.