UDSKRIFT 🔗
00:00:03
Speaker 1: Welcome in What's Right with Nick Wright, episode 528. This episode of What's Right with Nick Wright is presented to you by Boost Mobile. A reminder to everyone, like, rate, subscribe, review to the pod. It is our week 10 pick show. Demond's a week 8, mediocre, 2 and 3. I... I... We'll just go through it right now real quick. Um... Week 9, it was 2-3. I don't know what I said. Carolina plus 2.5 at home against Denver. I was on the right side of that. I don't care. We talked about it on Tuesday, but Carolina has it at the 1. It's incomplete. The next play is run. They then let them retroactively review it. All of a sudden, it's Broncos ball. Broncos go down and score, and I lose. It's just outrageous, but whatever. Carolina plus two and a half. Dallas minus five and a half at Indio is on the wrong side of that. Dallas was lucky to even win that game. Houston minus five and a half at the Chargers, covering there the whole way. Tampa plus six and a half at Chicago. Maybe got a little lucky, but we'll take it. I mean, the five turnovers helped. Maybe I said the NFL is a way of humbling folks. I didn't know it would be humbling like that, but that's why we were on Tampa. Minnesota plus three and a half at the Bills. Safe to say on the wrong side of that one, especially when I said I thought they'd get better quarterback play than they had been getting with Carson Wentz. Instead, they got three and a half quarters of Carson Wentz and was so bad they traded for Kirk Cousins. All right. So we're 22 and 23 on the year. Nothing to write home about. Not a catastrophe. We're going to do this show relatively quick, in part because if we don't, then Demondze's mother, my wife, is going to say she missed her plane and she'll never leave Los Angeles. So we're going to roll through today's show. Let's get to the stay-aways.
00:02:00
Speaker 2: First is Jacksonville, Tennessee. Tennessee's 10.5-point Dawgs.
00:02:05
Speaker 1: I like Jacksonville. Jacksonville would be my lean. But man, oh man, laying double digits in a road divisional game. And Cam Ward is coming off his best performance and they're coming off a bye. So for those reasons, it's like, all right, we're not laying 10 and a half, but that would be my lean. Next.
00:02:27
Speaker 2: Kansas City at Atlanta plus three and a half.
00:02:29
Speaker 1: Wow.
00:02:30
Speaker 2: Shocker.
00:02:31
Speaker 3: What?
00:02:32
Speaker 1: You're surprised I'm not?
00:02:32
Speaker 2: Kansas City minus three and a half?
00:02:35
Speaker 1: Minus 2.5, yes. Minus 3.5, no. Feels like a Chiefs 3-point win. Listen, at... Atlanta's a bit of a bipolar team, and so sometimes Penix looks terrible, but sometimes he cooks. If he's having one of his cook stays, the Chiefs, I don't yet fully believe in the pass rush, so that part is a concern. Also, they're probably going to once again be without both starting tackles, so I just want to, you know, I don't want to lay a big number. That's all it is, so I'm staying away from it. Next.
00:03:12
Speaker 2: Minnesota at Green Bay. Green Bay's three and a half point favorites.
00:03:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I want to see how Kirk Cousins looks back with the Vikings. He's played great with the Raiders this year. I think folks are maybe a touch too optimistic about how instantly good he'll look with the Vikings, but we'll see. Also, two of the best defenses, because it's two of the best defenses, Sometimes you just say grab the points. But new quarterback, I just want to see it. I'm staying away from it. Next.
00:03:45
Speaker 2: Carolina at New Orleans. New Orleans two and a half point favorites.
00:03:51
Speaker 1: So that one's surprising, right? Yeah. So that's why I'm not. So I don't. So, again, we're recording this before Thursday night football. You guys will have heard it after Thursday night football. We'll see how, you know, this ages. But I was talking Thursday Night Football with some buddies last night. And my handicap on Thursday Night Football is simply because it's the Giants hosting the Commanders. And the Giants are two and a half point favorites. And my entire handicap is I think I like the Commanders because every single person in the world is going to be on the Giants. Like, the Giants are better. They're home. The game means more for them. And they're laying less than a field goal. Why? So, it's just, you know, vintage. I think the public's going to be on one side. So, even though I agree with that. I'll explain how this applies to Carolina and New Orleans in a moment. Even though I also would be on that side. in Giants commanders. I'm so certain the public's going to be on that side. It feels like Washington somehow something, and you guys will know, am I right? Did Washington somehow find a weird way to cover that spread? This is how I feel here. You're shocked. New Orleans is the favorite, right? Yeah.
00:05:12
Speaker 2: Is that what they were favorite?
00:05:13
Speaker 1: Yeah. That was your reaction to that.
00:05:14
Speaker 3: I was surprised that they were figuring into like, I'm getting a lot of respect.
00:05:18
Speaker 1: So yeah, last week was against the Browns and Shador. Um, So I agree with you on this one, DeMonte, and this is why I'm staying away. It feels like Carolina's an obvious play, and it's an obvious enough play that I'm just staying away. Because I know they're on the road, but I think Carolina's better than New Orleans. I'm getting points, but it feels a little fishy. That's the short version of what I was saying. Next one, one of the worst games maybe in NFL history.
00:05:49
Speaker 2: Miami and Indy. Indy's three and a half point favorites.
00:05:54
Speaker 1: No, this legitimately could be one of the worst games ever. Like, Miami was trying to be bad, and now their quarterback's out. It's Kyle McCord as the starting quarterback. Meanwhile, the Colts weren't trying to be bad, were just naturally bad, and then traded away all their good players except for
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Jonathan Taylor. It's really one of the worst games ever. So I'm just staying away from it. Next.
00:06:22
Speaker 2: Rams at Arizona. Arizona's 9.5-point dogs.
00:06:25
Speaker 1: So this is another one where, not one of the worst games ever, but such a unique spot. You've got Carson Beck making his first career start against that Rams defense, but you have a Rams offense that all they have left is the running backs. All their receivers are injured. It's Kanata Mumfield and Tutu Atwell. So are you going to lay the nine and a half with a team that's going to have trouble scoring? Probably not. But are you going to jump on Carson back with Miles Garrett all of a sudden back? Like, no, so I'm just staying away.
00:07:02
Speaker 2: Next. San Francisco at Dallas. Dallas four and a half point dogs.
00:07:08
Speaker 1: I lean Dallas, but I also could see San Francisco scoring on like six straight possessions against that Dallas defense. So Dallas getting a full, you know, more than the field goal at home. I lean Dallas, but if I bet Dallas or pick Dallas and all of a sudden the Niners at the end of the first quarter have 17 points, I'm going to feel dumb, so I'm just staying away. Next.
00:07:37
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh against Cincinnati. Cincinnati's three and a half point favorites.
00:07:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I feel like this is a three point Cincy win. So technically that means I would be on Pittsburgh because I'm getting three and a half, but I'm just staying away. I think this line is basically just right, which leaves five games. And I'm telling you right now, some of these are the ugliest games you've ever seen. But that's how, you know what? The white whale of a 5-0 week is sometimes you got to get down in the... grimy and the grime and the dirt and the muck to find a five in a week. That's what we're trying to do. But first, let me talk to you about my friends at Polymarket. This is our football pick show, but you know what's also going on? Basketball, and the best way to trade on it is the prediction market, polymarket. In the past, if you wanted action on the game, put some money in, if your team was doing well, you wanted to cash out, trade, get locked. Not with polymarket. Polymarket's a prediction market. Stock exchange for sports is a way to look at it, where you buy in and sell out on your own terms. I've tried all of them, and Polymarket is truly the best prediction market out there. They are so confident. Never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. Every bucket, every block, every matchup in basketball trades on Polymarket. So download the Polymarket app today and use code NICKWRIGHT when you sign up. That's code NICKWRIGHT to get $ 25 free if you deposit just $ 10. So it is time now for Nick's Picks brought to you by.
00:09:37
Speaker 1: Polly market. First one to Monza is a good game. I can't say as much about the others. Let's get to it.
00:09:45
Speaker 2: First off, you got Detroit minus two and a half versus New England.
00:09:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a neutral site. I think Detroit, I have been impressed. I know it's been against bad teams, but at Detroit's defense showing a real pulse, I'm laying less than a few. goal. New England is super banged up. I was legitimately disturbed by how bad New England looked last week in a game that they should have been maximum motivated for. And so I, I like Detroit, And I don't have to lay a full field goal. The Pats haven't covered in a month, so even their wins they weren't covering. And, you know, Ramondre Stevenson may or may not be playing. We know Travion Henderson's not playing. We don't know if A.J. Brown's playing. Carlton Davis is out for the Patriots. Other offensive or multiple offensive linemen could be out. Like, they're just super banged up. So I'll take Detroit minus the two and a half. Next.
00:10:50
Speaker 2: Cleveland plus four and a half against Houston. Shocker.
00:10:56
Speaker 1: This is a ridiculous line.
00:10:59
Speaker 2: Okay.
00:11:02
Speaker 1: Why do the Texans deserve to be like significant favorites on the road against anybody that's shown a pulse this year? What have we seen from Houston where you're like, oh, okay, that makes sense.
00:11:21
Speaker 2: You don't see any incidents in where Stroud pours on them here? I think that.
00:11:26
Speaker 1: Brown's defense is pretty good. And so, like, the Texans have won three games this year. They beat a Jags team on a neutral site by three points. Their other two wins were blowouts, but it's against the Titans and the Chargers. When they played... You know, decent teams. And the Browns are a decent team who this week is starting. They're a more reliable quarterback, I suppose, in Deshaun. They lose. And so I just.
00:12:01
Speaker 2: Like last year, they could be routed in a form. Like they did last year.
00:12:05
Speaker 1: But still, that could be a three or four point win. I just... I don't... I don't think Houston deserves to be.
00:12:14
Speaker 1: Pretty big. I mean, four and a half is kind of big. More than field goal favorites on the road against teams that have a pulse. And the Browns definitely have a pulse. And the Browns could be six and two if they got that two-point conversion. And so, no, I'm just... I'll take Cleveland plus the four and a half. I don't get this line at all.
00:12:36
Speaker 3: Next is Seattle minus six and a half against Vegas.
00:12:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, this is just... It's a rookie quarterback making his first start ever against that defense. It's just all it is. How many points does Seattle need to cover this number?
00:12:56
Speaker 2: 20?
00:12:56
Speaker 3: 17?
00:12:56
Speaker 1: Is there a world where they score 14 and cover the number? There is. 17 would they cover the number?
00:13:05
Speaker 2: Maybe.
00:13:05
Speaker 1: 20, would they cover the number? I say almost definitely.
00:13:18
Speaker 2: What's the quarterback
situation for Seattle? It's not great.
00:13:24
Speaker 1: I'm going to admit it's not great. I mean, it's almost, I believe it will be Drew Locke. Darnold's not going to play and Drew Locke's banged up himself. I understand that piece of it, but this is a Seattle defense play against a quarterback making his first start ever. Like I just, Rookie number one picks at quarterback are 9-20 in their careers against the spread and first starts in their last 29 of those starts. And by the way, they weren't playing the Seattle defense. Mike McDonald's never lost against a rookie quarterback. And in Baltimore, he killed rookie quarterbacks. I'll lay the 6.5 with Seattle. Next.
00:14:06
Speaker 2: Jets plus 8.5 against Buffalo.
00:14:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, just short rest, divisional game, at home, getting more than a touchdown. Jets offense is, even though they didn't show it this past week, they couldn't get it in the end zone. Jets offense, sneaky good. Just a lot of fundamentals are... I got to take the eight and a half points with Aaron Glenn and feel good about it. Going into last week, dogs of more than seven were 26 and three against spread. Last week, they were 0 and 4. I think it gets back to how it was. And again, short rest on the road, divisional game for Buffalo, and they're laying more than a touchdown. I'll take the Jets plus eight and a half. And now we discuss one of the worst Monday night games that's ever happened.
00:15:00
Speaker 3: I don't know if this is disrespect or not, but the Chargers plus four and a half against Baltimore at Baltimore.
00:15:06
Speaker 2: Jacoby Brissett.
00:15:09
Speaker 1: Exactly. Listen, I'm sorry. That Ravens defense plus Jacoby Brissett making his first ever start for them. They can't be favorites of more than a field goal. They just can't be. And I know the Chargers are awful. Nobody knows more than me that the Chargers are awful. I get that. But here's the other thing. Are they going to go 0-17? It looks like it, to be honest. I mean, that would be hilarious. But I don't believe they're going to go 0-17.
00:15:45
Speaker 3: And I think last Christmas, I think it's like even better than this isn't better than when I just don't think you can bet anything on the Chargers, whatever line it is.
00:15:54
Speaker 2: I just don't think you can put it on the Chargers.
00:15:55
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, I mean, they can't. They they they they're 0 and 8 and 0 and 8 against the spread. I understand that. I think it's been 11 straight losses straight up and against the spread for the Chargers dating back to last year. I don't care. I'm not afraid of that. I'll take Justin Herbert and Los Angeles Chargers because Jacoby Brissett and this Ravens defense can't be four-and-a-half-point favorites. They just can't be. It's not in his first start. They just can't do it. You know what? I think Chargers might get their first win of the year. You can't lay four-and-a-half with the Ravens on their fourth quarterback of the season. All right, we will get to DeMondse's teaser, which sadly came to a crashing halt last week. But first, my picks recap. Detroit minus two and a half at home, or I'm sorry, in Munich against the Pats. Cleveland getting four and a half at home against the Texans. Seattle laying six and a half against the Raiders. The Jets getting eight and a half at home against Buffalo. And the Chargers getting four and a half in Baltimore. All right, before we get to Demanze's teaser and touchdown genie, let me remind you guys, sadly, everything feels like it just keeps going up. Rents going up. Streaming services are going up. You go to get a burrito and you're getting charged extra for salsa or guac or whatever. Not with Boost Mobile. You and your phone bill don't have to play the will this go up soon game. Why? Because Boost Mobile has unlimited talk, text, and data playing at a price that will never go up. In fact, same price you pay for life. So switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up only at Boost Mobile. After 30 gigs, customers may experience lower speeds. Customers will pay $ 25 per month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan. Tonight at 6.30 p.m. Eastern, it's Emirates NBA Cup action on Prime. Week three of group play as the quest for the Cup continues and Prime's got a pair of great matchups. First, The Knicks and the Pacers renew their longstanding rivalry in their first meeting of the season. Then, the Warriors test their long range against a young and relentless Spurs squad. Watch the Emirates NBA Cup tonight at 6.30 p.m. Eastern, only on Prime. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com slash Amazon Prime for details. All right, Demondze, we hit touchdown genie last week for the first time in a while. Love to see that.
00:18:31
Speaker 2: CeeDee Lamb, winner, cashed at 53%. Do you like anybody this week?
00:18:38
Speaker 1: I do. Parker Washington. Touchdown, Jeannie. Jacksonville Jaguars. After a little bit of a statistical dip, the Jags got Brian Thomas Jr. in the end zone last week just to toy with the rest of the league. I will take Parker Washington at 44% for touchdown, Jeannie. All right, let's talk teasers.
00:19:04
Speaker 3: I honestly feel like this calls for some type of probation period or something. All three legs wrong on a teaser is pretty crazy. So Vegas obviously didn't cover on the plus 16. Minnesota didn't cover on the plus 10. And the Jets did not cover on the plus 16.
00:19:21
Speaker 1: And I gave it an A. What a catastrophe. That really is bad. That really is bad. What are we doing this week?
00:19:28
Speaker 2: Three team, six and a half point teaser this week. We're going to go with Houston to plus two.
00:19:33
Speaker 1: That's the worst leg of a teaser I've ever seen. You're going through the zero and you're getting two. That's the worst leg I've ever seen. I hate that so much. Go ahead.
00:19:47
Speaker 2: You got Minnesota to plus two.
00:19:50
Speaker 1: 10.
00:19:51
Speaker 2: And then we got Kansas City to plus 3 against the Falcons.
00:19:56
Speaker 1: This is the worst teaser I've ever seen.
00:19:59
Speaker 3: Last week was the worst teaser you've ever seen. No, last week was a great teaser. It just didn't work out.
00:20:05
Speaker 1: And now you're not trusting the process. This is our first ever F-grade. You've done so well and learned so much, and now you're teasing a plus two. I just can't. I mean... I can't, Matt, good luck.
00:20:24
Speaker 2: After this last week, man, three, that's crazy. But hey, ride with me, guys. Just trail it from a distance if you don't trust it out there.
00:20:32
Speaker 1: Listen, folks, take, I guess, take Minnesota, Kansas City's not a great league either, but take Minnesota and Kansas City and then pick something else in that Houston plus two. They're out of your mind. All right, what about the offer?
00:20:47
Speaker 3: So last week you smartly declined Kyle Pitts over 50 yards and he hit his under.
00:20:52
Speaker 2: Uh, this week, the.
00:20:53
Speaker 1: Producers, I said, switch it. I said, let's do the under and we hit the under. Yes.
00:20:57
Speaker 3: So this week, the producers think that Josh down is going to get involved early with Kansas city.
00:21:02
Speaker 2: So Josh downs, first touchdown score at 10%. Do you like it?
00:21:06
Speaker 1: No, I do not like it. I'm not taking that. Let's have the, I would need that.
00:21:12
Speaker 2: No fun.
00:21:12
Speaker 1: So that's 10%. I'm getting nine to one. I would need like 19 to one for me to like that first touchdown score. I don't even know if you'll be in the goal line packages. No, I'm not. Thanks, but no thanks, producers. We're okay. All right, great job. Demondze's got to go take his mom to the airport so she can come back to New York. Thank you to our wonderful sponsors, Boost Mobile, Polymarket, and the Emirates NBA Cup on Prime. Thank you to Blue Duck and to Volume. Enjoy the football this weekend. I'll promise to be less argumentative on Twitter over the weekend as well. Talk to you guys soon. We'll trade.