Transkrip penuh untuk Can the D-backs Still Extend Gabriel Moreno After Breakout 2026 Season?

accountability. And that's what they'll always say going forward. Don't kid yourself. I mean, the front office has a lot to say of which candidates are placed in front of him. 00:06:35 Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll have to wait and see. Of course, there's a lockout looming. And we're going to talk a little more about the details of that later in the episode. But I'm sure the Diamondbacks want to make this decision sooner than later. get that pitching coach in place and be able to have some conversations before the lockout begins. So we'll keep you all posted on that. Based on our show headline today, you're probably expecting us to talk about Gabriel Moreno. And we will do that here shortly. We're going to talk about the possibility of a Moreno extension. Jack just wrote a great article about that over on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI. So we're going to dive into that. Before we do, though, it is time for On Deck Live. presented by Fox One. Well, Jack, we've already seen some very fun MLB postseason action. The Diamondbacks, of course, not involved, but still some entertaining baseball to be watched here in the month of October. I was at Petco Park actually a couple of times this past week as they took on the Brewers. That was a really, really great series, even as the Brewers ultimately win three games to one. And I guess just sticking on the NL side, Jack, we've got Milwaukee now going back home to Great American Ballpark. They're going to be taking on the Dodgers in the NLCS, and it should be a pretty fun matchup to watch. 00:08:06 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm rooting for the Brewers. I mean, that's my personal preference. My personal preference as a brewer is Ray's World Series. That's what I want to see. I think a lot of people can figure out why I'd like to see that. I just think it would be fun to see MLB try to spin their way around that particular matchup in the World Series. But at the same time, I'm not very confident that the Brewers are going to pull this off. I just think that the Dodgers pitching is firing on all cylinders right now. I think their pitching is too strong. I mean, the Brewers, you know, like Padres pitched well down the stretch. And, you know, they have a pretty decent pitching staff, but the Brewers still had a better September ERA team ERA than the Padres did by almost half a run. So like, it's not like, you know, Padres got so hot and their pitching staff went in blazing hot. The Brewers offense really kind of got shut down a bit and they seem to be making a lot of mistakes on defense. They were playing tight. So, you know, they, I think they really need to win the first two games at home to be able to relax and go into Dodger Stadium. If they come out of Milwaukee with a 1-1 split, I think the pressure is really going to be on them. Meanwhile, we're probably going to see Tarek Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto going the first two games for the Dodgers versus, I'm guessing it's going to be Mizorowski, Jacob Mizorowski, and then Henderson going for the Brewers. And Those are great pitching matchups, but I think they favor the Dodgers. Yamamoto's great on the road, by the way. So if the Dodgers are thinking of maybe moving Snell up ahead of Yamamoto and keep them in order, they could do that. But I think they'd actually rather have Yamamoto going in game two and then he can come back around for game six on the road if necessary. 00:10:05 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Jacob Mizorowski gives the Brewers a weapon that they have not had in the past, and that definitely changes things for them in the postseason. But you look at the pitching matchups beyond game one and yeah, it's like, well, Dodgers basically just have four aces essentially ready to go, which is outrageous. And then of course, everything that they have in their lineup as well. I think I said great American ballpark earlier. I mixed up my America ballparks. This is American family fields out in, out in Milwaukee. So I wanted to correct that real quick, but should be a very fun series to watch. And of course you can watch it over at Fox one. MLB on Fox is streaming on Fox One. The postseason is here, and we have your front row seat to the wildest walk-offs, lights out pitching, and clutch plays all playoffs long. Stream each NLDS and NLCS game, then the 2026 World Series, live on Fox One. At home or on the go, live or on demand, never miss a moment. Stream now. Start your Fox One three-day free trial today at foxone.com. Well, Jack, our main topic on this edition of Snakes Territory is Gabriel Moreno, the possibility of the Diamondbacks extending Gabriel Moreno after what was an exceptional, exceptional 2026 season. He, of course, wins the batting title with a 311 average. He's the first catcher to win a batting title since Buster Posey did it in 2012, and he's I don't think he's going to get any first place MVP votes, but he's definitely going to get some high end MVP votes should finish in the top five, at least based on the numbers that we're looking at. And our good friend Steve Gilbert over at MLB.com, he wrote a story about five questions facing the Diamondbacks this offseason. And one of them was, what about a Gabriel Moreno extension? Steve wrote that it is possible the Diamondbacks look to work out an extension with Moreno and in order to keep him around longer than his current deal. And that deal, of course, goes for another two seasons. So through the end of 2028. Jack, I know you really dove in on this and did all the research and made all the spreadsheets as you often do. And so I'll give you the Florida to start things out here about what a Moreno extension would look like. 00:12:31 Speaker 2: Well, you know, the first thing is the context, right? I mean, if you look at spring of 2025, They extended Geraldo Padomo, gave him four years, $ 45 million, $ 44 million. And then a month later in late March, just as the season was getting underway, they gave Brandon Fott an extension as well, five years, $ 45

million. And a lot of people wondered at the time, like, why wasn't Gabby extended at that point? And I think that's like the first interesting question to look at because I think it's very relevant to the overall situation. Perhaps at that time, the D-backs were offering similar type deals to what they offered Moreno and Podomo, I mean, fought in Podomo. And that may not have been anywhere near enticing enough for Moreno, who had won a gold glove in 2023, had some big postseason moments, but he did have a somewhat injury-marred 2024 season. His games and plate appearances weren't very high. And so, you know, he decided, I think, I think the team did try to broach the subject at that time, around the same time that they worked with Perdomo in FOD. But clearly that didn't happen. So they were not able to meet. And I'm just wondering, you know, Jesse, from your perspective, what did you think back then about Marino not getting an extension along with Perdomo in FOD? 00:14:04 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it was. I mean, I think it was tricky because Moreno at the time, it felt like there was still untapped potential. We saw at the end of the 23 season, there was there was some power that seemed to really be showcasing itself. He was hitting third for the Diamondbacks throughout much of that postseason run. And so I think the Diamondbacks would have loved to do an extension back then. But if you were Gabby Moreno at the time, you were probably like, yeah, I think that I can do better than this. Or I think I would rather just take my chances. I guess, are you saying though, Jack, that the Diamondbacks maybe weren't quite as into that idea back then as at least I'm perceiving was the case? 00:14:47 Speaker 2: My guess is that they probably approached with some kind of extension offer whether it was similar to Podomo's and thoughts. I mean, the situations are all a little bit different, but it probably would have been within that range. And I think from Moreno's standpoint, it just wasn't enough to entice him. He decided to look, everyone's personality is different. Gabby is a very confident young man. He's, he's humble. And when you talk to him, he never comes off in a, you know, braggadocio way, but at the same time, there's a very quiet confidence that he has. It's not cockiness. and it just meshes with his personality to me that he would bet on himself. That's how I perceive it. Yeah. So, you know, taking it forward, like the first thing, you know, to figure out like what an extension should look like, you got to just kind of look at, you know, how much he's played, what he's produced, and what's the baseline to project going forward. So on screen is a simple table. and it shows 2023 through 2026. It shows his age, which happened to coincide, makes it a little easier. He's aged 23 through 26 seasons. It shows the actual number of plate appearances each year, 380, 351, 309 in 2025, and then 549 last year. So the average number of plate appearances is 397. And then it shows AWAR, which is the average of baseball reference war and fan graphs war. I just think that's the simplest system. The two major baseball reference and fan graphs, they calculate the defense differently. And so I think that the best way to do this is to average it out. So that's what the A war does. And he went 3.3, 2.6, 2.2, 6.1, a major leap, of course, in 2026. for an average of 3.5. Now, to formulate the baseline going forward, most projection systems use a weighted average. And so I then took the last four seasons and I weighted them 4, 3, 2, 1. 40% of the weighted average is 2026, 30% is 2025, 20% is 2024, and 10% is 2023. That came out to 3.9 A war, average war. So just round and say four war and an average of 421 plate appearances. So that's your weighted average of Gabriel Moreno's last four season, which then creates the platform to work out how to project him going forward. 00:17:46 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think one thing that stands out about Moreno that is maybe a little different from the other catchers that have gotten extensions recently is that Moreno is not a huge home run guy, right? This is a different situation than Cal Raleigh. It's a different situation than, you know, even Will Smith or the Dodgers or I know Sean Murphy's contract with Atlanta has not gone well, but there's a little bit more power there historically. And I think that was part of the motivation for giving him that deal to begin with. And JT Real Muto. Yeah, yeah, Real Muto. There's more power there historically as well. I guess you're talking about fancy weighted averages, Jack. If we just do a straight average of his last four seasons, Moreno averages about nine home runs per year. And granted, it was much higher in 2026 when he hit 16. So I'm sure from his perspective, he's not viewing himself as a nine home run per year hitter. But I think if you're the Diamondbacks, if you're looking at this objectively, you have to realize that power has not been a huge part of Moreno's game historically. And, you know, as he ages, that's something you want to keep in mind. I think that especially when you're talking about a contract that could stretch beyond $ 20 million per season, we don't see that kind of money given all that often to guys who don't hit the long ball. 00:19:10 Speaker 2: Yeah. On the other hand, one of the links in the story links to a catcher aging curve article over at Fangraphs. And it's not unusual to see catchers actually their OVP probably goes down a bit when their on base percentage goes down a bit as they age. But the power numbers can come up in this past year. I mean, you know, Gabby took 61 walks. He had 50 extra hits. He hit for both power on base and slug. and put up a whopping 874 OPS. I mean, you know, that was like the fifth highest in the national league. It was the third highest OPS +. So, you know, the power was there to the full extent that you could reasonably expect in 2026. And the question is, can

you repeat that? Can you keep going along those lines? So good point on the power. So then going forward, what we now have here is a projections analysis. table and a contract proposal. So there's a lot of numbers on this screen. Sorry for our audio listeners. I'll do my best to kind of walk through it. But I show Gabby starting off with 420 plate appearances projected for 2027, 400 for 2028. And a lot of people might think, well, wait a minute, he just had 500 plus plate appearances last year. But in the years prior to that, it was just 300 plus. Gabby's had five separate injured list stints and has lost 158 days to the injured list over the last four seasons, including a stint for an oblique in 2026. Even in 2026, he had an injured list stint. So these numbers are somewhat of a reflection of where he's been. Then through those first two seasons, 2027, 2028, are what would be his arbitration years prior to free agency if he just goes year to year. And then from 29 through 32, it just shows a gradual reduction in plate appearances, 380, 360, 340, 320. The war starts off at 3.5. It's a fairly standard reduction from the previous year of 0.5 and then reducing by half a war each year. So 3.5, 3, 2.5, 2, 1.5, and 1.0. through 2032 in his age 32 season. So he's projected for a total of 13.5 war. And the dollar amount comes out based on the dollar value of that production based on $ 9 million per war comes out to $ 121 million. So that's what I'm projecting Gabriel Moreno to produce from 2027 through 2032, 13.5 war and roughly $ 122 million in value. Now, the salary structure that I've set up here basically has him receiving what he would receive in arbitration over the next two years, $ 6 and $ 9 million, so $ 15 million over the next two years, and then $ 23 million starting from 2029 through 2032. That brings the annual salaries up to $ 107 million I add in a signing bonus of $ 3 million, which is prorated to $ 500, 000 over the life of the contract. And so that totals out to $ 110 million. So this is what I'm projecting for him, a 13 and a half war and $ 110 million contract value. Now the gap between that 110 and 122 million projected value is can be made up for by incentives like playing time percentage per plate appearances. If he exceeds those plate appearances, he could get additional funds. If he can, you know, finish highly in MVP or wins another gold glove, things like that can also add to his dollar amount. And then they can always add on some kind of option structure with a buyout at the end to bridge that gap between 110 and 122. So that's kind of the outline that I put there. One last point I want to make here, and I just want to highlight off that chart. If you can go back to that just for a second. Note, and then we'll discuss this further, that 6.5 of the 13.5 war are projected to come in the first two years in what would be the arbitration years. That's $ 58. 5 million of the value, or almost half, and for only $ 15, $ 16 million of

the $ 110 million being paid. In other words, if the Diamondbacks don't extend Gabriel Marino, they can get essentially half the value that this entire six-year deal represents for only $ 15 million. 00:24:19 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that's where this may be as much as you would love to have Gabriel Moreno on your baseball team for four years beyond his current deal. There is an element of like, well, you've got him under contract for what's probably going to be two pretty darn good years. And I guess according to your projections, he's going to produce basically just as much value in those next two seasons as he would in the four seasons after that combined. So this is, this is tough, Jack. I mean, I could see this from a lot of different perspectives and, Um, I think, I think frankly, if you're just looking at the spreadsheet, it kind of feels like the extension is unnecessary. It kind of feels like you're going to get a whole lot of value for the next two years. And then if you actually go out and you pay him, you know, 23 and a half million per year for the four years after that, as you're, as you're saying, you're going to be overpaying for probably all of those years, maybe even from the first one, if that's actually, how much it would take. I know his projection for 2029 pretty much has him exactly in line with making that amount of money, but then you expect the production to fall off after that. So on paper, I don't know if it really looks like something the Diamondbacks should do. Moreno just had such an unbelievably good year in 26 that it feels like the window for an extension has maybe closed here from the team side at this point. On the other hand, catcher is a really important position. And, and I remember the pre Gabrielle Moreno days when, when the D backs were, you know, it was kind of a revolving door of a bunch of different veterans coming in and trying to make it happen. You know, Alex Avila and Chris Herman. And, you know, it was tough. Like the D backs were getting almost no production from that position whatsoever. And then suddenly you've got Gabrielle Moreno in there as a three or four war player. you know, catcher is just the kind of position where it's hard to find value. It's hard to find someone, you know, at a reasonable cost that can actually give you two more at that position. And so from that standpoint, it's like, well, maybe you are willing to pay a premium. Maybe you are willing to kind of knowingly overpay in order to get a good amount of production at that position moving forward. 00:26:46 Speaker 2: Right. I mean, one of the key points that I ended up my article with was look, players of this caliber, especially catchers of this caliber, just do not grow on trees, you know? And, and so the team has to be really, and not to mention his popularity. I mean, I don't know how much player popularity factors in to this front office's calculations, but if it does certainly, you know, that's, that's something else to consider. I mean, Gabby's an enormously popular player. Yeah. And so, As difficult as it is to find a good catcher, even if you're baking in some decline there, you may want to consider, well, what if he can stave off that decline? Now, a big piece of this, a lot of people are probably going to mention, well, you can have him DH more. Later in the contract, you can move him to first base or something. Well, then that's going to deduct from his value because as we're calculating it using war. And by the way, war is not the be all and end all. but it's just a useful tool for this discussion. The point being is that the positional values that war assigns are much higher for a catcher than they are for a DH. And it's a big gap. 00:28:01 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:28:01 Speaker 2: Okay. So, so even like, you know, if Gabby flipped and two thirds of his time came at DH and, you know, over the last couple of years and one third of his time came at catcher or first base, then he's not going to have very much positional value whatsoever. he's going to have to really hit to make up for that. So the war total likely wouldn't go up, even if his batting numbers maintained from close to what, you know, his career averages. So that's another factor in this, like, you know, in order for this to work, Gabby's got to be able to stay at catcher most of the time. Yes. He can still take a quarter of his plate appearances over, over at DH and keep them fresh, keep them in the lineup. But, You know, 75% of his games played in PA and innings need to come at catcher for this to work. The other thing I'll mention is, you know, does the fact that Carlos Verahonda, a catching prospect, broke out and was just named by the Diamondbacks, their player of the year, position player of the year for 2026, and their first round draft pick as a catcher, Ryan Helfrich, and who impressed with his power in limited sample size, in his first go-around as a pro. I think he hit five or six homers and just a little over 100 plate appearances and is getting praise for his defensive work. So, I mean, you know, they just named a catcher their player of the year, and they just went out and drafted a catcher with their first-round draft pick. Is that tipping the Diamondbacks' intentions here? 00:29:35 Speaker 1: Vera Honda did have a really good season. 272 average, 870 OPS overall. across three levels, opened the year in single A by Salia, then spent, I guess he played more games in Hillsborough than anywhere else, and then he just got to double A to finish off the season. So at 20 years old, he's a promising prospect for sure. And then as you mentioned, Ryder Helfrich is now in the organization and one of the big names in this farm system as well. So yeah, there, there's a lot of factors here. The last thing that, that I'll mention is I do wonder if the structure, uh, would be switched up a little bit. It seems like in these contracts where you're buying out a couple of, uh, you know,

arbitration years and then, um, and then tacking on some, some free agent years after that, oftentimes you'll bump up the number in the arbitration years. So I wonder if I don't know if this makes it easier for the Diamondbacks, but maybe these age 27, 28 years, maybe the D-backs bump it up to $ 8 million and $ 11 million or something like that. And then that saves them a little bit of money on the back end, but wouldn't make a huge difference either way. So all in all, you're looking at a six-year $ 110 million extension for Gabriel Moreno. That's what we've got on the table here. Jack, are there any final thoughts on that topic before we move on? 00:31:01 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I just mentioned the signing bonus. You know, I mean, typically that signing bonus is going to be paid all at once. But if you remember from our payroll discussion, when we talked about LRD payroll, the way it's calculated is it's prorated over the life of the contract on paper. So on the spreadsheet, it shows a half a million dollars a year. But part of the incentive for Gabby to sign on the dotted line is he gets that $ 3 million bonus pretty much within, there's usually a deadline. Like for example, all of Corbin Carroll's signing bonus was paid by like May 31st of the following year or something like that. There's a specific date that was tied to it. But when you look at the LRD calculations, it's actually prorated on paper. So part of it's accounting versus what they actually do. Yeah. The only other thing I'll say here is, I think it would be pretty cool to see Gabriel Marino remain a Diamondback for as long as possible. I just think that he's a really good person. He's a really good player. He's well-liked in the clubhouse. He's a fan favorite. He's a really darn good baseball player. I'd rather bet on him being able to find a little bit more consistent health than bet on the next prospect. That's just me. So I hope that the Diamondbacks, from a personal standpoint, can find a way to get this done. And I hope that he would like to remain a Diamondback. But we'll see. I've tried to present everything as even-handedly as possible without injecting my own personal preference into the article. The article is kind of more just laying out the facts and the numbers. And you guys get to know how I feel. 00:32:47 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I mentioned the power earlier and how, you know, Moreno's maybe not going to hit 30 home runs anytime soon. But he also did just, you know, win the NL batting title. And there aren't as much as you might like to get some power from your catcher. There also are not many catchers in the league with like a 70 grade hit tool, which is I think is pretty well established that like that's how good of a hitter Gabriel Moreno is. And as you think about him playing, aging, like what is this going to look like when he's 32 or 33? That's the kind of tool that you figure can continue to play in future seasons. So let us know what you think in the chat.

We always are curious what all of you are thinking about our spreadsheets and all these crazy numbers that were thrown out there. So yeah, let us know. Six years, $ 110 million. Would you be willing to do that to keep Gabriel Moreno around for the long term? Was there something else you wanted to add on this, Jack? 00:33:44 Speaker 2: Please go to si.com slash MLB slash Diamondbacks and you'll find this article. I appreciate you checking it out over there as well so that you can kind of review the full numbers aspect of how I laid it out. 00:34:00 Speaker 1: We weren't going to dive too much into this, but we did also want to hit on the bullpen in this episode. We know that Gambo has talked about this over on Arizona Sports 98.7 a little bit. And our friend D-back stats and info at D-back stats info on Twitter kind of cobbled together some notes here from Burns and Gambo. The Diamondbacks would like to bring Taylor Clark back. That's one note here. Gerardo Carrillo, Cade Stroud and Juan Burgos are names that are likely in the pen for 2027 or in the bullpen mix for next season. And then also, according to Gambo, Ryan Thompson is looking for a fresh start elsewhere. he is not likely to return. So Taylor Clark is the name that D-backs maybe like to bring back out of their impending free agents. And then Carrillo, Stroud, Burgos, all mentioned as guys who could be in the mix here. Jack, at first glance, I think Taylor Clark coming back could certainly see that making sense. Clark had a great year for the D-backs, even though things were shaky at the end. And because he's not missing a whole lot of bats, you figure he's going to still come at a relatively low cost, should be a budget-friendly option. And then, you know, I won't lie, when you see Carrillo, Stroud, Burgos thrown around as options for the bullpen, certainly Carrillo looked awesome for a brief stretch there. But, you know, Cade Stroud and Juan Burgos, they've kind of just been up and down guys. And Cade Stroud really, really struggled to throw strikes after coming over in that trade. 00:35:38 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a lot of components here. You know, when we reviewed the payroll and Ken's comments, and he talked about maybe lowering the payroll and depending more on some of the younger players to step in and fill the roles of departing free agents. Clearly, part of that is the bullpen. Kevin Ginkle already gave a farewell message, more or less, on Instagram. Doesn't look like there's any intentions between him and the team to reunite next year. I think that's a pretty safe bet. Jonathan Loizaga made $ 5 million last year and is coming off an excellent season. And so I don't think the D-backs are going to be able to invest the needed funds to bring him back. I think he priced himself out of their range. So it's understandable that they're looking towards their younger pitchers. And Mike Hazen did mention Burgos and Stroud by name during his postseason presser. He didn't mention Carrillo, but obviously whoever Gambo spoke to did. And, you know, Stroud in particular, I have very little confidence in, you know, his, he's never been able to throw strikes. He's always posted very high walk rates, 12, 13%, you know, most of the time in the minor leagues. And it just, you know, it just never looked like he had command of his stuff. And Oh, by the way, he used to throw 96. Now he throws 94. And so I just don't know if there's, you know, and he's going to be 29 years old. We are not talking about a 22, 23 year old prospect who, if he could only just get command of his stuff, he's 29 years old and his stuff is already declining as is natural for a pitcher. It's 29 years old. Nobody throws as hard at 29 as they did at 25. Almost very few. There's a few exceptions, but, By and large, that's the fact there. Burgos is a couple years younger. He's 26. He's going to be 27. His stuff has still not yet really fallen off as far as velocity, whether or not he'll be able to command it. He did face 17 batters. I think he gave up three hits and didn't walk a guy in the majors this year. So, you know, maybe that's a little bit more reason for hope. Carrillo, I mean, you know, we were all gaga for him until all of a sudden, He couldn't find the strike zone at all. And so that's a little concerning. He's not a spring chicken either. He's 28 years old. So none of these guys are very young. That's my point. 26, 27, 28 years old, 29 years old. So what are we expecting here? What kind of turnaround are we really expecting from these guys? The last thing I'll add is Juan Murillo and Brandon Garcia pitched a lot in 2026. Garcia, you have to add his minor league innings as well. And of course, you know, Justin Martinez is coming off his second Tommy John surgery. That's a great core to have stuff wise, but you know, getting through the next season without any of those guys getting hurt and not regressing off their 2026 performance, that's a big bet to make as well. So Right now, I'm not very encouraged by the prospects to have anywhere near the same level of bullpen next year as they had this year. 00:39:05 Speaker 1: It is kind of funny to be critical of the bullpen when the Diamondbacks, I think, pretty clearly have the best 7-8-9 trio that they've ever had lined up going into a season, at least in recent memory. I mean, there are a lot of teams that would love to have Brandon Garcia and Juan Murillo lined up at the end of games alongside Justin Martinez. They're controllable for a number of years ahead. There's a lot to like there. But I agree with you. The depth was also a big part of the bullpen being so good this year. And beyond those three guys, even if you do bring back Taylor Clark, there's still a whole lot of gaps to fill. Cade Stroudjack, just to revisit that trade The Diamondbacks, of course, they got some other pieces in that deal in exchange for Blaze Alexander in that deal with Baltimore. But man, in retrospect, it really feels like

they paid a premium for 25 innings in the big leagues last year where he had a 171 ERA with Baltimore. And frankly, his underlying stuff was good. It wasn't like it was terrible, but It was a 3-9-6 XFIP, 3-4 FIP in that time. His walk rate was a little high. He really excelled at keeping the ball in the ballpark. But yeah, the ability to throw strikes, that was an issue for him. It was a 5.4 walk per nine in AAA this year. It's a 13% walk rate. And then you are also right about the stuff dropping off. He only pitched a few innings in the majors this season, but his stuff plus was 95%. compared to 106 with Baltimore in 2025. The curveball in particular, the Stuff Plus model, did not like that pitch nearly as much in 2026 as it did last year. Granted, very, very small sample size there. But yeah, the Diamondbacks have some work to do, Jack. There's no getting around that. 00:41:02 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, you know, look, did the Diamondbacks find a formula for finding undervalued relievers that could perform well last year? Or did they get lucky? That's the big question, right? I mean, we don't know. And I can't really evaluate that. But, you know, hopefully it's that they figured out a formula and they were able to go out and, again, identify a couple of guys that are not going to be as expensive, maybe somebody, you know, that didn't miss some time with injury that they believe is healthy enough to perform. And there's something in that, you know, Jonathan Loizaga, you know, 2.0, that kind of thing. I mean, that's what they're going to need to have happen here. They're going to have to get another, I hate to use the term scrap heap, but I know people are going to use that. They're going to have to rescue a guy or two off the scrap heap and turn them into a useful, positive role reliever to fill the gaps here. Because the players that they're mentioning are just not enticing me to have much faith and confidence. Sure, one or two of them might be a decent ad next year. But, you know, I haven't, I don't see enough there to feel like that should be part of your baseline plan going forward. 00:42:23 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that is very fair. Well, before we get out of here, we did want to touch on a kind of bizarre story that came out over at The Athletic about Major League Baseball making preparations for the lockout that is Clearly, waiting around the corner will begin on December 1st. There was a memo sent out to team owners and high-ranking executives from Dan Halem, who is the second-in-command to Commissioner Rob Manfred over at the league office. And his memo basically details what club officials should expect and how they should act during the inevitable work stoppage that is waiting around the corner. And there's some strange stuff in here, Jack. There's a note that says sending players holiday gift cards or holiday cards or gifts would not be permissible during a lockout. Clubs could send holiday cards or gifts to players prior to December

2nd. So I guess they're going to have to do some early Christmas shopping this year, it looks like. And yeah, there's also some weird notes about like, you can attend like a player's wedding, like team officials are allowed to attend those sorts of events, but you're not supposed to talk shop. And there's all kinds of cautionary terminology in here about, you know, it's tricky to know where the line is between what you can talk about and what you can't talk about. So kind of just sets the stage, Jack, for what's going to be a pretty bizarre few months, not too far from now. 00:44:01 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, The first thing that fans are going to notice, of course, is that all the player images will be scrubbed from MLB.com and all the team websites, DBAX.com, et cetera. You will not see any player images for anyone that's on the 40-man roster. So that's the first thing that you'll notice visually. Also, they're not allowed to have any contact with the players at all regarding the training staff, coaches. They can't talk to them. Okay. So they can't, you know, whatever off season plans that they give the guys to work on, you know, do this, this kind of drill, or this is where we're going to work on physically or, you know, work on this pitching wise or work on this pitch, whatever it is. There's no ability to follow up with the player and chart track and chart how any of that's going. So it's all going to dive into this black hole as of the, onset of the lockout, December 2nd, there's going to be no contact until it's all resolved, which may not happen until a month or two into what should have been the season. So you're looking at December, January, February, potentially March, April, five months of no contact between the players and the coaching staff and the medical teams. And a lot happens in between there. So That's something to really be aware of, how they're able to get up and running and figure everything out if there's a lengthy lockout. That's really a long time not to have any follow-up. What a performance is going to look like, how healthy your guy is going to be. I think there's a tendency for some guys to maybe get a little out of shape and just not quite do as well on their own. Other guys do fine, but there's going to be those few guys that aren't able to stay in as good a shape or aren't able to execute to the plan as well as they would have had they been under the team's supervision. That's just people are people. 00:46:08 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not a great situation for anyone. I mean, I think about someone like Corbin Burns this offseason who's going to try to have a normal offseason and would really benefit from a normal buildup going into 2027. And realistically, that just probably isn't going to happen. You still figure he's Corbin Burns. He's a big time competitor, like he's going to take care of himself and do what he needs to do over the offseason. But being cut off from the team is not going to help anything for him or anyone else. So there is also some verbiage in here about the 2027 season and how the league is optimistic that the 2027 season will be played. But they're, of course, acknowledging the possibility that that doesn't happen. There's some words here for you know, people selling season tickets right now and how you should go about that. And, you know, being willing to to provide like, yes, if there are any games that are missed, then you will receive a credit or refund for the value of those games, trying to like provide some assurances to fans. But if you're a baseball fan and you're not exactly jumping at the chance to buy a season ticket plan for a season that may or may not get cut short by a significant margin, I can't really blame you. That is that is pretty fair. So We'll see what happens here. This is still a couple months away. But once we get into December, no trades, no free agent signings, basically no fun. So we're going to make the most of it as best we can. We really appreciate all of you following our work here at Snakes Territory. If you haven't already, be sure to subscribe to our channel here on YouTube. Drop a like on this video. It really helps us out. Hit the bell icon for notifications so that you never miss an episode of the show. And if you're joining us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, any of those platforms, it also really helps us out if you would leave us a five-star review. Until our next show, you can find us over on Twitter. I am at JesseNFriedman. Jack is at ShoeWizard59. And our show is at Snake's Territory. And you can find Jack's written work, including that article that he wrote about this potential Gabriel Moreno extension. You can find that over there. at Arizona Diamondbacks on SI. Jack, any final thoughts here as we say goodbye? 00:48:24 Speaker 2: Just want to tease a little bit. Our next episode that'll come up in the middle of next week is going to be a prospect-heavy episode. So you prospect hounds are going to really want to hear about this. We've got a lot of really great information and a special guest coming back to help us sort through it all. 00:48:42 Speaker 1: Well, thank you again to all of you for being with us on this episode. We really appreciate your time and we'll be back very, very soon with another episode of Snakes Territory.