Transkrip penuh untuk The GOP’s LAST CHANCE For Midterms Redemption

00:02:37.320 Hopefully my stupid voice holds up. 100 00:02:37.820 --> 00:02:39.080 Cause sometimes it doesn't like that. 101 00:02:39.380 --> 00:02:39.500 Uh, 102 00:02:39.580 --> 00:02:40.440 but you know what? 103 00:02:40.910 --> 00:02:41.460 Drugs. 104 00:02:42.360 --> 00:02:42.820 OK? 105 00:02:43.080 --> 00:02:44.179 If it gets difficult for me, 106 00:02:44.279 --> 00:02:46.619 I will just do illicit drugs, 107 00:02:46.759 --> 00:02:48.520 and then the show will get much more exciting. 108 00:02:48.800 --> 00:02:52.399 We have early voting going on in 43 states right now. 109 00:02:52.479 --> 00:02:53.149 43 states. 110 00:02:53.160 --> 00:02:53.679 And here's the, 111 00:02:53.839 --> 00:02:54.320 this is the, 112 00:02:54.330 --> 00:02:54.360 the, 113 00:02:54.529 --> 00:02:54.630 you know, 114 00:02:54.679 --> 00:02:56.100 we give you the schedule update all the time. 115 00:02:56.380 --> 00:02:56.860 Who's left? 116 00:02:57.440 --> 00:02:59.039 Washington DC October 26th, 117 00:02:59.160 --> 00:02:59.600 Oklahoma, 118 00:02:59.679 --> 00:03:00.520 October 28th, 119 00:03:00.759 --> 00:03:01.119 Kentucky, 120 00:03:01.240 --> 00:03:02.139 October 29th, 121 00:03:02.679 --> 00:03:03.619 and that's the whole list. 122 00:03:04.479 --> 00:03:04.570 Yeah, 123 00:03:04.679 --> 00:03:05.169 that's it. 124 00:03:05.369 --> 00:03:06.369 We're up to what, 125 00:03:06.449 --> 00:03:06.649 I mean, 126 00:03:07.089 --> 00:03:07.210 Washington, 127 00:03:07.369 --> 00:03:07.649 DC, 128 00:03:07.770 --> 00:03:08.759 so 45 states. 129 00:03:08.839 --> 00:03:10.789 There's a few states that don't have early voting. 130 00:03:11.330 --> 00:03:12.110 Interesting. 131 00:03:12.449 --> 00:03:12.919 I remember, 132 00:03:12.929 --> 00:03:13.070 uh, 133 00:03:13.080 --> 00:03:15.490 when we were having this Georgia controversy when, 134 00:03:15.529 --> 00:03:15.690 uh, 135 00:03:15.729 --> 00:03:16.429 when everyone was saying 136 00:03:16.770 --> 00:03:20.130 that Georgia's laws were going to ruin democracy and 137 00:03:20.130 --> 00:03:21.990 then they had more people voting than ever before. 138 00:03:22.289 --> 00:03:23.720 And when that whole controversy was going on, 139 00:03:23.770 --> 00:03:24.270 we all realized that, 140 00:03:24.369 --> 00:03:24.490 hey, 141 00:03:24.559 --> 00:03:26.970 there's a bunch of left-wing states that don't have early voting at all. 142 00:03:27.050 --> 00:03:28.990 They don't seem to have any problem with it whatsoever. 143 00:03:29.289 --> 00:03:29.410 Uh, 144 00:03:29.490 --> 00:03:30.309 very strange, 145 00:03:30.330 --> 00:03:30.509 uh, 146 00:03:30.529 --> 00:03:32.089 arguments being made on both sides. 147 00:03:32.789 --> 00:03:34.369 But I wanna kind of look at where we are, 148 00:03:34.630 --> 00:03:36.619 as we're 8 days away from the election. 149 00:03:36.910 --> 00:03:38.220 What does control look like? 150 00:03:38.509 --> 00:03:39.860 What do these races look like? 151 00:03:40.070 --> 00:03:41.029 Can you believe the media? 152 00:03:41.139 --> 00:03:42.190 Can you believe the polls? 153 00:03:44.289 --> 00:03:45.500 There's a couple of different factors here. 154 00:03:47.490 --> 00:03:48.270 I 155 00:03:48.809 --> 00:03:49.570 wanna be honest with you, 156 00:03:49.610 --> 00:03:49.970 and I, 157 00:03:50.080 --> 00:03:52.190 I've been honest with you this entire time. 158 00:03:52.490 --> 00:03:58.610 I get bored with the whole walking your party line thing that a lot of people wanna do. 159 00:03:58.729 --> 00:03:58.880 You know, 160 00:03:58.929 --> 00:04:01.850 a lot of people wanna root for something and tell you it's gonna come true, 161 00:04:01.889 --> 00:04:02.250 and, 162 00:04:02.649 --> 00:04:03.250 and frankly, 163 00:04:03.330 --> 00:04:04.529 I don't like doing that. 164 00:04:04.610 --> 00:04:04.929 It doesn't, 165 00:04:04.970 --> 00:04:06.270 it's not interesting to me. 166 00:04:06.759 --> 00:04:07.160 Um, 167 00:04:07.279 --> 00:04:07.399 you know, 168 00:04:07.479 --> 00:04:08.539 I like to get hope sometimes. 169 00:04:08.600 --> 00:04:10.320 I like to look for the rays of sunshine. 170 00:04:10.429 --> 00:04:11.440 There's nothing wrong with that. 171 00:04:11.720 --> 00:04:11.830 Uh, 172 00:04:11.880 --> 00:04:13.839 if you happen to be a Republican or conservative, 173 00:04:13.919 --> 00:04:15.190 it's been kind of cloudy weather, 174 00:04:15.389 --> 00:04:15.520 right? 175 00:04:15.610 --> 00:04:17.358 Like things have not looked so good in the polls. 176 00:04:18.139 --> 00:04:18.569 And 177 00:04:19.188 --> 00:04:20.579 you can say you don't believe the polls, 178 00:04:20.628 --> 00:04:22.108 you can say you don't believe prediction markets, 179 00:04:22.188 --> 00:04:23.669 you can say you don't believe the news. 180 00:04:23.748 --> 00:04:25.648 All that's totally uh up to you. 181 00:04:26.700 --> 00:04:28.420 One thing that is believable though, 182 00:04:28.500 --> 00:04:30.720 is where Republicans are putting their money. 183 00:04:30.980 --> 00:04:31.609 And right now, 184 00:04:31.980 --> 00:04:34.820 Republicans are putting their money in states like Mississippi. 185 00:04:36.459 --> 00:04:37.380 South Carolina, 186 00:04:37.579 --> 00:04:38.299 Nebraska, 187 00:04:38.540 --> 00:04:39.019 Kansas, 188 00:04:39.140 --> 00:04:39.700 Texas. 189 00:04:41.410 --> 00:04:45.350 These states are getting flooded with money from Republican groups, 190 00:04:45.500 --> 00:04:46.220 uh, 191 00:04:46.399 --> 00:04:47.350 super PACs, 192 00:04:47.799 --> 00:04:48.440 campaigns, 193 00:04:48.519 --> 00:04:49.119 all that stuff. 194 00:04:49.279 --> 00:04:51.079 It's all going to that type of state. 195 00:04:51.160 --> 00:04:52.380 They've given up on states like 196 00:04:52.720 --> 00:04:53.799 North Carolina and Georgia, 197 00:04:53.880 --> 00:04:54.540 for example. 198 00:04:54.920 --> 00:04:55.040 Uh, 199 00:04:55.109 --> 00:04:57.720 there's really no money going into those races at this point.

200 00:04:59.130 --> 00:05:00.170 So the question is, 201 00:05:00.329 --> 00:05:02.519 because that's what the Republicans are seeing now. 202 00:05:02.529 --> 00:05:03.070 Republicans 203 00:05:03.410 --> 00:05:05.690 have been known at times for their incompetence. 204 00:05:05.850 --> 00:05:07.079 So it's possible there's wrong, 205 00:05:07.170 --> 00:05:07.410 right? 206 00:05:07.690 --> 00:05:09.769 Maybe they're overstating the doom level here 207 00:05:09.769 --> 00:05:11.250 and they're just playing defense and saying, 208 00:05:11.359 --> 00:05:11.489 look, 209 00:05:11.549 --> 00:05:13.369 let's just not lose all these states, 210 00:05:13.630 --> 00:05:14.609 we'll see what happens. 211 00:05:14.929 --> 00:05:15.670 That's possible, 212 00:05:15.679 --> 00:05:16.730 and they could just be wrong. 213 00:05:17.190 --> 00:05:17.549 Um, 214 00:05:17.600 --> 00:05:19.179 and I think there are some 215 00:05:20.000 --> 00:05:22.859 reasons to believe that things have improved recently 216 00:05:23.619 --> 00:05:24.279 for Republicans. 217 00:05:24.359 --> 00:05:25.920 I wanna go through some of that data with you. 218 00:05:26.000 --> 00:05:26.269 This, 219 00:05:26.399 --> 00:05:26.640 uh, 220 00:05:26.760 --> 00:05:27.279 I'll give you, 221 00:05:27.399 --> 00:05:28.640 we'll start here with YouGov. 222 00:05:28.880 --> 00:05:29.709 YouGov is a pollster, 223 00:05:29.799 --> 00:05:30.600 been around for a long time. 224 00:05:30.679 --> 00:05:31.440 We featured them before, 225 00:05:31.450 --> 00:05:34.160 and I wanna make sure you understand that we featured them about a month ago. 226 00:05:34.790 --> 00:05:38.329 The reason I want to tell you about that is because we featured them in the light of 227 00:05:38.750 --> 00:05:41.829 really negative results for conservatives and Republicans. 228 00:05:42.799 --> 00:05:43.119 Um, 229 00:05:43.190 --> 00:05:43.540 in fact, 230 00:05:43.720 --> 00:05:44.000 they, 231 00:05:44.279 --> 00:05:46.769 when they turned on their likely voter screen, 232 00:05:46.880 --> 00:05:48.929 it was so negative for, 233 00:05:49.019 --> 00:05:49.470 uh, 234 00:05:49.480 --> 00:05:49.980 Republicans, 235 00:05:50.119 --> 00:05:51.559 it seemed almost unbelievable. 236 00:05:51.640 --> 00:05:53.140 Like it would be worse than any election 237 00:05:53.640 --> 00:05:54.660 that has happened, 238 00:05:54.959 --> 00:05:55.160 uh, 239 00:05:55.200 --> 00:05:55.799 in a very, 240 00:05:55.880 --> 00:05:56.040 you know, 241 00:05:56.119 --> 00:05:56.519 in a very, 242 00:05:56.619 --> 00:05:58.239 very long time for either party. 243 00:05:59.089 --> 00:05:59.890 Here's their headline today. 244 00:05:59.970 --> 00:06:01.350 Are Republicans catching up 245 00:06:01.809 --> 00:06:02.630 in the race 246 00:06:02.769 --> 00:06:03.369 for Congress? 247 00:06:03.489 --> 00:06:04.309 There is some 248 00:06:04.640 --> 00:06:05.290 evidence for this. 249 00:06:05.369 --> 00:06:06.470 We are seeing 250 00:06:06.850 --> 00:06:08.890 some bounce back in states like Texas, 251 00:06:09.089 --> 00:06:10.269 in states like Iowa, 252 00:06:10.609 --> 00:06:11.279 in states, 253 00:06:11.369 --> 00:06:12.250 uh, 254 00:06:12.290 --> 00:06:14.790 strength in states like Florida continuing. 255 00:06:15.170 --> 00:06:15.329 Uh, 256 00:06:15.410 --> 00:06:17.670 there are some bright spots for, 257 00:06:17.929 --> 00:06:18.089 uh, 258 00:06:18.130 --> 00:06:19.369 the red parts of the map. 259 00:06:20.799 --> 00:06:22.820 I wanna go through some of this data to show you 260 00:06:23.279 --> 00:06:24.859 some indications of this. 261 00:06:25.079 --> 00:06:25.500 And 262 00:06:25.600 --> 00:06:27.059 there are indications 263 00:06:27.359 --> 00:06:27.989 of it if you, 264 00:06:28.200 --> 00:06:28.269 you, 265 00:06:28.359 --> 00:06:30.239 you gotta squint maybe a little bit sometimes, 266 00:06:30.359 --> 00:06:32.260 and it doesn't mean that we're going from 267 00:06:32.600 --> 00:06:34.519 bad news or horrible news to good news. 268 00:06:34.600 --> 00:06:36.279 That's not what this data is showing. 269 00:06:36.359 --> 00:06:37.220 What it's showing is 270 00:06:37.359 --> 00:06:39.859 horrible news to less bad news. 271 00:06:40.399 --> 00:06:40.959 At this point, 272 00:06:41.049 --> 00:06:43.079 you're either going to have a very bad year 273 00:06:43.079 --> 00:06:45.679 for Republicans or a very bad year for polls. 274 00:06:45.760 --> 00:06:46.940 Those are the two options. 275 00:06:47.320 --> 00:06:48.779 You can't really have 276 00:06:49.440 --> 00:06:51.290 Good poll a good polling year, 277 00:06:51.540 --> 00:06:51.880 um, 278 00:06:52.000 --> 00:06:52.399 and, 279 00:06:52.519 --> 00:06:53.079 and say, 280 00:06:53.119 --> 00:06:53.540 OK, 281 00:06:54.350 --> 00:06:55.200 Republicans did well. 282 00:06:55.799 --> 00:06:56.429 At this point, 283 00:06:56.480 --> 00:06:57.980 polling is pretty much saying 284 00:06:58.440 --> 00:06:59.380 really bad things 285 00:06:59.600 --> 00:07:00.019 for 286 00:07:00.559 --> 00:07:01.059 Republicans. 287 00:07:01.440 --> 00:07:01.670 And, 288 00:07:01.760 --> 00:07:01.959 you know, 289 00:07:02.079 --> 00:07:04.690 prediction markets are echoing much of that sentiment. 290 00:07:04.880 --> 00:07:05.459 However, 291 00:07:06.250 --> 00:07:09.809 We have some evidence that that is reversing at least to some level, 292 00:07:09.850 --> 00:07:10.769 and I wanna show you this. 293 00:07:10.850 --> 00:07:12.670 This is an important concept to understand. 294 00:07:13.089 --> 00:07:15.619 As you are leading up to an election, 295 00:07:16.170 --> 00:07:17.309 most pollsters 296 00:07:17.489 --> 00:07:20.649 will ask very broad categories of people, 297 00:07:21.049 --> 00:07:22.709 sometimes even adults. 298 00:07:22.970 --> 00:07:24.809 I never like a poll about adults. 299 00:07:24.929 --> 00:07:25.359 Adults, 300 00:07:25.410 --> 00:07:25.529 uh, 301 00:07:25.609 --> 00:07:26.040 and you might say, 302 00:07:26.100

--> 00:07:26.170 well, 303 00:07:26.230 --> 00:07:27.130 what do you want a poll of kids? 304 00:07:27.209 --> 00:07:27.480 No. 305 00:07:27.690 --> 00:07:29.869 What I want is a poll of registered voters at least. 306 00:07:30.559 --> 00:07:32.079 Adults means anybody, 307 00:07:32.200 --> 00:07:33.700 they're not even registered to vote. 308 00:07:33.839 --> 00:07:36.200 And so at that point they're very unreliable as to 309 00:07:36.200 --> 00:07:37.679 whether they would go to the polls or not. 310 00:07:37.760 --> 00:07:38.510 As we all know, 311 00:07:38.750 --> 00:07:39.579 a lot of people don't. 312 00:07:39.920 --> 00:07:40.149 Um, 313 00:07:40.239 --> 00:07:42.059 so registered voters is that first, 314 00:07:42.119 --> 00:07:42.429 that, 315 00:07:42.519 --> 00:07:42.679 you know, 316 00:07:42.720 --> 00:07:44.500 you have adults and then you have the first kind of, 317 00:07:44.760 --> 00:07:45.779 uh, 318 00:07:46.559 --> 00:07:47.660 hurdle to clear is, 319 00:07:47.679 --> 00:07:48.940 are you registered to vote? 320 00:07:49.000 --> 00:07:49.709 If you are, 321 00:07:50.000 --> 00:07:51.119 you're put into a lot of these polls. 322 00:07:51.179 --> 00:07:51.679 If you're not, 323 00:07:51.750 --> 00:07:53.339 a lot of times you're just kind of tossed to the side. 324 00:07:54.109 --> 00:07:54.529 Now, 325 00:07:55.190 --> 00:07:56.029 it goes farther than that, 326 00:07:56.070 --> 00:07:57.390 as you get closer to the election. 327 00:07:57.959 --> 00:07:59.890 They start putting on likely voter screens. 328 00:08:00.010 --> 00:08:00.239 Likely, 329 00:08:00.290 --> 00:08:01.170 I've talked about this before, 330 00:08:01.250 --> 00:08:02.320 but if you missed those shows, 331 00:08:02.489 --> 00:08:04.070 likely voter screens are basically 332 00:08:04.489 --> 00:08:06.149 questions to get a little bit more invasive 333 00:08:06.290 --> 00:08:08.760 to try to understand whether you're actually gonna vote or not. 334 00:08:09.250 --> 00:08:10.149 Sometimes it's as simple as, 335 00:08:10.209 --> 00:08:11.350 are you sure you're gonna vote? 336 00:08:11.570 --> 00:08:12.089 And if you say, 337 00:08:12.250 --> 00:08:12.570 if you say, 338 00:08:12.690 --> 00:08:12.809 well, 339 00:08:12.829 --> 00:08:12.850 well, 340 00:08:13.089 --> 00:08:13.750 probably, 341 00:08:14.089 --> 00:08:16.109 you might not clear that likely voter 342 00:08:16.250 --> 00:08:16.799 category. 343 00:08:17.010 --> 00:08:17.690 If you say, 344 00:08:17.769 --> 00:08:18.000 uh, 345 00:08:18.010 --> 00:08:18.600 if they ask you, 346 00:08:18.679 --> 00:08:18.769 hey, 347 00:08:18.880 --> 00:08:20.450 have you voted in the last 5 elections? 348 00:08:20.519 --> 00:08:21.809 How many of the last 5? 349 00:08:21.880 --> 00:08:22.250 And you say, 350 00:08:22.329 --> 00:08:22.350 oh, 351 00:08:22.529 --> 00:08:22.929 all 5, 352 00:08:23.010 --> 00:08:23.929 I always vote. 353 00:08:24.500 --> 00:08:26.140 You're much more likely to vote in this upcoming one. 354 00:08:26.209 --> 00:08:26.500 If you said, 355 00:08:26.579 --> 00:08:26.700 well, 356 00:08:26.739 --> 00:08:29.320 I've never voted before and I'm 42 years old, 357 00:08:29.739 --> 00:08:30.019 and, 358 00:08:30.059 --> 00:08:30.339 uh, 359 00:08:30.450 --> 00:08:30.859 and I'm gonna, 360 00:08:30.980 --> 00:08:32.049 but I'm gonna turn out this time, 361 00:08:32.179 --> 00:08:34.099 you're treated as a less likely voter. 362 00:08:34.380 --> 00:08:36.320 All that makes kind of intuitive sense. 363 00:08:36.700 --> 00:08:37.080 Um, 364 00:08:37.340 --> 00:08:39.080 YouGov does this in an interesting way. 365 00:08:39.140 --> 00:08:41.340 They have multiple different screens for this. 366 00:08:41.539 --> 00:08:42.969 They have registered voters, 367 00:08:43.099 --> 00:08:44.260 they have a likely voter screen, 368 00:08:44.330 --> 00:08:45.880 and then they have a very strict 369 00:08:46.580 --> 00:08:47.330 likely voter screen, 370 00:08:47.380 --> 00:08:50.320 which is like only people they're pretty much are sure are going to vote. 371 00:08:50.859 --> 00:08:53.789 This is what their pollings look like over the past month and a half or so. 372 00:08:54.200 --> 00:08:54.409 Um, 373 00:08:54.479 --> 00:08:55.580 and what you see here, 374 00:08:56.090 --> 00:08:57.820 starting in the beginning of September 375 00:08:58.049 --> 00:08:58.830 till today, 376 00:08:59.200 --> 00:08:59.750 is 377 00:09:00.010 --> 00:09:00.169 a, 378 00:09:00.210 --> 00:09:02.869 a rise in the Democratic lead. 379 00:09:03.169 --> 00:09:05.210 The strictest screen when we featured this, 380 00:09:05.270 --> 00:09:07.650 I think this was the moment we featured this poll. 381 00:09:08.590 --> 00:09:11.630 We're talking about the best case scenario for Democrats at that time 382 00:09:11.989 --> 00:09:12.349 was, 383 00:09:12.390 --> 00:09:12.580 uh, 384 00:09:12.590 --> 00:09:13.809 on September 20th, 385 00:09:14.099 --> 00:09:16.849 that was a + 14 in the generic ballot. 386 00:09:17.070 --> 00:09:17.229 Again, 387 00:09:17.270 --> 00:09:17.710 for those, 388 00:09:17.719 --> 00:09:17.859 uh, 389 00:09:17.869 --> 00:09:18.820 people who have lives, 390 00:09:18.989 --> 00:09:20.010 a generic ballot 391 00:09:20.159 --> 00:09:20.869 is basically, 392 00:09:20.950 --> 00:09:21.030 hey, 393 00:09:21.070 --> 00:09:23.090 you're gonna vote for your local Democrat or Republican, 394 00:09:23.349 --> 00:09:24.229 and you can take, 395 00:09:24.349 --> 00:09:26.950 you can kind of get a sense of the climate of a given election. 396 00:09:27.640 --> 00:09:29.390 When you measure generic ballot, 397 00:09:29.599 --> 00:09:31.580 generic ballot is seen as one of the best, 398 00:09:31.799 --> 00:09:32.320 um, 399 00:09:32.520 --> 00:09:35.070 predictors of what's going to come up in the election, 400 00:09:35.119 --> 00:09:35.900 and you see 401 00:09:36.039 --> 00:09:37.549 that's a very strict screen. 402 00:09:37.640 --> 00:09:39.340 Only the most likely voters get

there, 403 00:09:39.599 --> 00:09:40.520 a + 14. 404 00:09:40.599 --> 00:09:42.340 At the same time that that was going on, 405 00:09:42.590 --> 00:09:42.799 uh, 406 00:09:43.109 --> 00:09:45.080 Democrats were a 10 407 00:09:45.320 --> 00:09:47.559 when it comes to the what they call a loose screen. 408 00:09:47.640 --> 00:09:49.489 This is the normal likely voter screen, 409 00:09:49.719 --> 00:09:51.039 and then the registered voters, 410 00:09:51.280 --> 00:09:52.150 they were a plus, 411 00:09:52.239 --> 00:09:53.440 let's say 7. 412 00:09:53.859 --> 00:09:54.239 So, 413 00:09:54.419 --> 00:09:54.700 if you're, 414 00:09:54.780 --> 00:09:54.979 you know, 415 00:09:55.219 --> 00:09:55.380 the, 416 00:09:55.460 --> 00:09:57.000 the less likely you are to vote, 417 00:09:57.140 --> 00:09:58.640 the more Republican you were 418 00:09:58.859 --> 00:09:59.609 in all of these, 419 00:09:59.619 --> 00:09:59.989 uh, 420 00:10:00.320 --> 00:10:00.729 uh, 421 00:10:00.739 --> 00:10:01.640 screens because 422 00:10:02.219 --> 00:10:04.450 Republicans are not as passionate this time around. 423 00:10:04.619 --> 00:10:04.780 Uh, 424 00:10:05.330 --> 00:10:06.659 Democrats are much more, 425 00:10:06.979 --> 00:10:07.140 uh, 426 00:10:07.260 --> 00:10:09.059 showing much more energy in this election, 427 00:10:09.099 --> 00:10:11.719 and that is echoed in almost every single poll I've seen. 428 00:10:12.260 --> 00:10:13.330 But as you see, 429 00:10:13.580 --> 00:10:15.289 as we go from September 20th on, 430 00:10:15.419 --> 00:10:19.840 we see a a considerable decrease in all of these categories. 431 00:10:20.219 --> 00:10:20.340 Uh, 432 00:10:20.380 --> 00:10:21.539 if you're listening on podcast, 433 00:10:21.619 --> 00:10:22.700 I'll give you the sense of this. 434 00:10:23.090 --> 00:10:24.099 On September 20th, 435 00:10:24.179 --> 00:10:26.859 the strictest screen was a + 14 for Democrats. 436 00:10:27.099 --> 00:10:28.500 It then dropped to a +13, 437 00:10:28.659 --> 00:10:29.460 a +12, 438 00:10:29.650 --> 00:10:30.409 a +11, 439 00:10:30.539 --> 00:10:32.400 and now down to a +9. 440 00:10:32.619 --> 00:10:34.299 So it's gone from 14 to 9. 441 00:10:34.460 --> 00:10:35.700 It's a 5 point swing. 442 00:10:36.099 --> 00:10:38.299 And as far as a loose screen, 443 00:10:38.380 --> 00:10:40.520 this is the register normal likely voter screen. 444 00:10:40.820 --> 00:10:43.219 It has gone from a 10 for Democrats to a +7, 445 00:10:43.330 --> 00:10:44.340 so a 3-point swing. 446 00:10:44.640 --> 00:10:45.210 And for, 447 00:10:45.289 --> 00:10:45.440 uh, 448 00:10:45.489 --> 00:10:47.070 in the just registered voters, 449 00:10:47.330 --> 00:10:49.729 you've seen a drop from about 0. 450 00:10:49.770 --> 00:10:51.770 +7 for Democrats to +, 451 00:10:52.239 --> 00:10:53.349 uh, 452 00:10:53.369 --> 00:10:54.880 say 52 points. 453 00:10:55.049 --> 00:10:55.309 So. 454 00:10:55.820 --> 00:10:59.359 Less drop among uh registered voters than likely voters. 455 00:10:59.580 --> 00:10:59.809 Um, 456 00:10:59.859 --> 00:11:00.919 but the point here 457 00:11:01.059 --> 00:11:01.640 is that 458 00:11:01.940 --> 00:11:02.739 people who, 459 00:11:02.900 --> 00:11:05.039 what you're seeing here is a process we 460 00:11:05.260 --> 00:11:05.880 predicted 461 00:11:06.059 --> 00:11:06.950 on this program, 462 00:11:07.219 --> 00:11:07.679 which is, 463 00:11:07.739 --> 00:11:09.280 as you get closer to a race, 464 00:11:09.580 --> 00:11:11.320 as you come out of Labor Day, 465 00:11:11.460 --> 00:11:13.619 as you get out of the summer stuff, 466 00:11:13.690 --> 00:11:15.039 your kids go back to school, 467 00:11:15.219 --> 00:11:17.419 you start focusing on the election again, 468 00:11:17.619 --> 00:11:20.380 you start seeing $100 million of ads. 469 00:11:21.190 --> 00:11:21.869 All of a sudden, 470 00:11:22.030 --> 00:11:22.710 you go from, 471 00:11:22.789 --> 00:11:24.229 I don't really care about this election to, 472 00:11:24.270 --> 00:11:24.580 you know what, 473 00:11:24.630 --> 00:11:26.229 I actually kinda do care about this election. 474 00:11:26.669 --> 00:11:28.380 And now I am gonna make sure I get out and vote. 475 00:11:28.510 --> 00:11:30.070 You may have said in September, 476 00:11:30.190 --> 00:11:30.770 uh, 477 00:11:31.070 --> 00:11:32.210 I'm not that passionate. 478 00:11:32.669 --> 00:11:33.830 Now you are passionate, 479 00:11:33.909 --> 00:11:34.070 right? 480 00:11:34.140 --> 00:11:35.429 That's why they run these ads, 481 00:11:35.469 --> 00:11:36.750 to get you out of the house. 482 00:11:37.190 --> 00:11:37.650 So 483 00:11:38.070 --> 00:11:40.179 that is what's happening with this data. 484 00:11:40.390 --> 00:11:41.150 We see a, 485 00:11:41.190 --> 00:11:41.330 a, 486 00:11:41.390 --> 00:11:43.130 a similar thing happening in 487 00:11:43.270 --> 00:11:45.450 the propensity of people who are very likely, 488 00:11:45.590 --> 00:11:45.789 uh, 489 00:11:45.869 --> 00:11:47.469 that they will definitely vote. 490 00:11:47.479 --> 00:11:47.590 Again, 491 00:11:47.710 --> 00:11:48.710 YouGov data here. 492 00:11:48.979 --> 00:11:50.469 If you look at September 20th, 493 00:11:50.549 --> 00:11:53.140 you see a situation where 80, 494 00:11:53.469 --> 00:11:53.739 let's see, 495 00:11:53.789 --> 00:11:55.169 85% 496 00:11:55.349 --> 00:11:57.409 of Democrats said they were sure to vote 497 00:11:57.510 --> 00:11:59.080 that has risen to 87%. 498 00:11:59.260 --> 00:11:59.989 It almost gets higher. 499 00:12:01.219 --> 00:12:03.099 Republicans have seen a much more dramatic, 500 00:12:03.460 --> 00:12:03.650 uh, 501 00:12:03.659 --> 00:12:04.340 gain there. 502 00:12:04.500 --> 00:12:07.419 They were at 70% and have risen all the way to 80%. 503 00:12:07.700 --> 00:12:11.119 So they have closed the gap from about 15 points 504 00:12:11.419 --> 00:12:12.320 to 7 505 00:12:12.659 --> 00:12:14.700 in that time period of about a month. 506 00:12:15.609 --> 00:12:17.190 That

is very good news for, 507 00:12:17.289 --> 00:12:18.030 uh, 508 00:12:18.679 --> 00:12:22.169 Republicans and Republican candidates if this holds true. 509 00:12:22.369 --> 00:12:24.239 Independents have been up a little bit, 510 00:12:24.289 --> 00:12:25.179 but mostly flat, 511 00:12:25.250 --> 00:12:27.750 and you'd see them bounce around a little bit more than the parties, 512 00:12:28.049 --> 00:12:31.349 but what you saw was a real depression around September 20th 513 00:12:31.530 --> 00:12:32.750 and a rise 514 00:12:33.039 --> 00:12:33.280 to, 515 00:12:33.289 --> 00:12:33.650 uh, 516 00:12:33.780 --> 00:12:35.250 to 80% now for. 517 00:12:35.539 --> 00:12:35.820 Republicans, 518 00:12:35.940 --> 00:12:37.169 you'd expect that to rise. 519 00:12:37.219 --> 00:12:38.859 This is October 18th data, 520 00:12:39.179 --> 00:12:39.380 uh, 521 00:12:39.500 --> 00:12:40.260 so it's a week old, 522 00:12:40.460 --> 00:12:42.200 but you'd expect that to rise each week 523 00:12:42.340 --> 00:12:46.599 and probably that gap close a little bit more as we get closer and closer and closer. 524 00:12:46.900 --> 00:12:48.320 Now I put that in perspective, 525 00:12:48.340 --> 00:12:48.599 again, 526 00:12:48.900 --> 00:12:48.950 I, 527 00:12:49.059 --> 00:12:50.020 and I wanna make sure I, 528 00:12:50.340 --> 00:12:51.700 I don't want to come off as like some, 529 00:12:51.780 --> 00:12:52.070 you know, 530 00:12:52.179 --> 00:12:52.369 uh, 531 00:12:52.460 --> 00:12:52.659 hey, 532 00:12:52.780 --> 00:12:55.000 I'm trying to mislead you because I want one side to win. 533 00:12:55.539 --> 00:12:56.309 It's important for me, 534 00:12:56.330 --> 00:12:57.729 for you to win on prediction markets. 535 00:12:57.900 --> 00:12:58.780 It's important for me to, 536 00:12:58.919 --> 00:12:59.059 you know, 537 00:12:59.219 --> 00:12:59.369 for, 538 00:12:59.539 --> 00:13:00.489 for my candidates to win. 539 00:13:00.520 --> 00:13:00.650 I, 540 00:13:00.739 --> 00:13:01.739 I want that to happen. 541 00:13:02.070 --> 00:13:05.000 But what I want to use this form for is to tell you the truth. 542 00:13:05.320 --> 00:13:05.549 Um, 543 00:13:05.599 --> 00:13:07.260 and what the truth here 544 00:13:07.479 --> 00:13:07.880 is, 545 00:13:07.960 --> 00:13:08.109 uh, 546 00:13:08.159 --> 00:13:09.130 is that while 547 00:13:09.479 --> 00:13:10.789 there is a narrowing, 548 00:13:11.080 --> 00:13:13.140 the narrowing doesn't mean 549 00:13:13.440 --> 00:13:17.280 you're gonna see massive gains for Republicans in the House and Senate. 550 00:13:17.359 --> 00:13:18.119 I don't think that's going to. 551 00:13:18.294 --> 00:13:18.835 Happen at all. 552 00:13:19.255 --> 00:13:20.575 This is a predict this is a, 553 00:13:20.655 --> 00:13:20.804 uh, 554 00:13:20.854 --> 00:13:21.515 a kind of 555 00:13:21.854 --> 00:13:23.875 putting this in context sort of moment here. 556 00:13:24.294 --> 00:13:24.494 Um, 557 00:13:24.534 --> 00:13:25.655 this is likely voters, 558 00:13:25.775 --> 00:13:25.895 uh, 559 00:13:25.974 --> 00:13:28.164 which are now at +9 for Democrats. 560 00:13:28.414 --> 00:13:29.414 This is compared to, 561 00:13:29.655 --> 00:13:30.635 to 2018. 562 00:13:30.775 --> 00:13:31.604 Why 2018? 563 00:13:31.775 --> 00:13:32.945 2018 is a really crap, 564 00:13:32.955 --> 00:13:34.515 crappy year for Republicans, 565 00:13:34.815 --> 00:13:37.075 and the fact is the line for this year, 566 00:13:37.375 --> 00:13:40.114 it has been worse the entire time 567 00:13:40.455 --> 00:13:41.695 than 2018, 568 00:13:42.034 --> 00:13:43.215 according to YouGov data. 569 00:13:43.375 --> 00:13:44.594 Now YouGov is one pollster. 570 00:13:45.330 --> 00:13:45.570 We, 571 00:13:45.630 --> 00:13:47.559 we'll give you every bit of a disclaimer, 572 00:13:47.609 --> 00:13:48.489 but you know the disclaimers, 573 00:13:48.570 --> 00:13:49.590 I don't wanna bore you with them 574 00:13:49.770 --> 00:13:50.010 all, 575 00:13:50.090 --> 00:13:50.650 but we've 576 00:13:50.849 --> 00:13:51.880 said them a million times. 577 00:13:52.130 --> 00:13:52.950 The bottom line here 578 00:13:53.289 --> 00:13:54.289 is that even at, 579 00:13:54.450 --> 00:13:56.950 even with this improvement that you can see on this chart, 580 00:13:57.479 --> 00:13:57.840 um, 581 00:13:58.049 --> 00:14:00.150 which echoes an improvement from 2018, 582 00:14:00.770 --> 00:14:01.929 it's still worse. 583 00:14:02.260 --> 00:14:03.169 That it was 584 00:14:03.289 --> 00:14:05.229 in 2018 at least so far. 585 00:14:05.330 --> 00:14:07.500 We will see if that continues as we go forward. 586 00:14:07.570 --> 00:14:10.880 Let's make a note to check in on that YouGov uh data as it improves, 587 00:14:10.890 --> 00:14:11.090 Adam, 588 00:14:11.210 --> 00:14:11.510 because, 589 00:14:11.890 --> 00:14:12.010 uh, 590 00:14:12.049 --> 00:14:12.750 just to kind of keep our, 591 00:14:12.809 --> 00:14:13.929 our heads here, 592 00:14:13.969 --> 00:14:15.390 I wanna make sure we understand things 593 00:14:15.690 --> 00:14:16.030 now. 594 00:14:16.289 --> 00:14:17.109 Another part of this 595 00:14:17.210 --> 00:14:18.239 are undecided voters, 596 00:14:18.320 --> 00:14:20.710 and there still are a lot of undecided voters out there. 597 00:14:21.489 --> 00:14:21.890 You might say, 598 00:14:21.969 --> 00:14:22.049 well, 599 00:14:22.090 --> 00:14:23.090 I had my mind made up in, 600 00:14:23.159 --> 00:14:23.510 you know, 601 00:14:23.719 --> 00:14:24.729 1984. 602 00:14:24.960 --> 00:14:25.239 Uh, 603 00:14:25.409 --> 00:14:25.799 but 604 00:14:26.049 --> 00:14:26.530 right now, 605 00:14:26.650 --> 00:14:28.210 people are really making their minds up, 606 00:14:28.289 --> 00:14:29.799 and it's a small percentage of the population, 607 00:14:29.849 --> 00:14:30.729 but it's an important one. 608 00:14:31.130 --> 00:14:32.169 Matthew Iglesias wrote this, 609 00:14:32.210 --> 00:14:34.049 and I thought this was an interesting way of, 610 00:14:34.130 -->

00:14:35.130 of looking at this. 611 00:14:35.479 --> 00:14:35.729 Um, 612 00:14:35.969 --> 00:14:36.090 again, 613 00:14:36.169 --> 00:14:36.729 he's on the left, 614 00:14:36.809 --> 00:14:39.380 he's probably thinking this is a very bad outcome, 615 00:14:39.659 --> 00:14:39.770 uh, 616 00:14:39.880 --> 00:14:42.289 but I think it's an interesting way to look at this, 617 00:14:42.409 --> 00:14:42.530 and, 618 00:14:42.640 --> 00:14:43.750 and most of this is 619 00:14:44.010 --> 00:14:45.080 At least partially true. 620 00:14:45.369 --> 00:14:45.690 Polling, 621 00:14:45.780 --> 00:14:45.929 uh, 622 00:14:46.250 --> 00:14:46.570 for example, 623 00:14:46.650 --> 00:14:48.070 this is Kansas Senate. 624 00:14:48.369 --> 00:14:50.190 Polling has Hamilton up by 1 point 625 00:14:50.489 --> 00:14:53.039 in a context where there are 10% who are still undecided, 626 00:14:53.049 --> 00:14:54.390 and almost all of them 627 00:14:54.530 --> 00:14:55.250 are going to be Trump, 628 00:14:55.369 --> 00:14:55.530 Trump, 629 00:14:55.630 --> 00:14:56.130 Trump voters, 630 00:14:56.210 --> 00:14:57.729 meaning they voted for Trump in 2016, 631 00:14:57.809 --> 00:14:58.289 2020, 632 00:14:58.359 --> 00:14:59.359 and 2024. 633 00:14:59.690 --> 00:15:01.369 So you have this group of undecided voters that 634 00:15:01.369 --> 00:15:02.929 are gonna go one way or the other likely. 635 00:15:04.030 --> 00:15:05.140 Most of those people are, 636 00:15:05.219 --> 00:15:07.400 have been Trump supporters this entire time. 637 00:15:07.809 --> 00:15:08.219 Should we, 638 00:15:08.340 --> 00:15:10.190 shouldn't we expect this to be a GOP? 639 00:15:10.619 --> 00:15:10.729 When? 640 00:15:11.369 --> 00:15:12.099 Conceptually speaking, 641 00:15:12.179 --> 00:15:15.859 is it a polling error if these late deciders break for Hamilton? 642 00:15:16.140 --> 00:15:17.559 There's a good case to be made here. 643 00:15:17.780 --> 00:15:18.840 If you voted for Trump 644 00:15:19.059 --> 00:15:20.010 in 2016, 645 00:15:20.260 --> 00:15:21.969 you voted for Trump in 2020, 646 00:15:22.119 --> 00:15:24.039 you voted for Trump in 2024, 647 00:15:24.289 --> 00:15:25.919 are you so upset 648 00:15:26.179 --> 00:15:27.919 with your previous vote from 649 00:15:28.059 --> 00:15:28.700 not that long ago, 650 00:15:28.859 --> 00:15:29.559 two years ago. 651 00:15:30.080 --> 00:15:32.500 That you think things have gone so terribly 652 00:15:32.719 --> 00:15:35.030 that you're now looking for a left-wing candidate, 653 00:15:35.080 --> 00:15:35.869 an Adam Hamilton, 654 00:15:35.919 --> 00:15:37.380 a James Tallarico, 655 00:15:37.799 --> 00:15:38.039 uh, 656 00:15:38.119 --> 00:15:38.479 you know, 657 00:15:38.599 --> 00:15:39.049 uh, 658 00:15:39.320 --> 00:15:39.979 Scott Colom 659 00:15:40.679 --> 00:15:41.359 in Mississippi. 660 00:15:42.030 --> 00:15:42.440 One of these, 661 00:15:42.500 --> 00:15:44.440 are you really gonna go that far? 662 00:15:46.369 --> 00:15:48.630 It doesn't feel intuitive that that would be true. 663 00:15:49.450 --> 00:15:50.549 Meaning that if, 664 00:15:50.640 --> 00:15:51.289 if they can, 665 00:15:51.369 --> 00:15:54.799 if conservatives can win a majority of those undecided votes, 666 00:15:54.969 --> 00:15:57.770 they're gonna win a lot of these toss-up races in the Senate. 667 00:15:58.330 --> 00:15:58.799 Um, 668 00:15:59.059 --> 00:16:00.500 we have some more information on this. 669 00:16:00.580 --> 00:16:01.700 This is from Strength in Numbers, 670 00:16:01.739 --> 00:16:02.039 which, 671 00:16:02.299 --> 00:16:02.500 uh, 672 00:16:02.659 --> 00:16:02.820 they, 673 00:16:02.900 --> 00:16:03.419 they asked the question, 674 00:16:03.500 --> 00:16:05.289 who's already voted in 2026 midterms, 675 00:16:05.340 --> 00:16:06.049 who's undecided, 676 00:16:06.059 --> 00:16:07.090 and how might they vote? 677 00:16:07.270 --> 00:16:07.510 Now, 678 00:16:07.770 --> 00:16:08.460 Strength in numbers is, 679 00:16:08.580 --> 00:16:08.700 you know, 680 00:16:08.739 --> 00:16:09.299 a good pollster. 681 00:16:09.340 --> 00:16:09.539 They, 682 00:16:09.659 --> 00:16:11.039 they are a legitimate 683 00:16:11.299 --> 00:16:11.719 outfit. 684 00:16:11.900 --> 00:16:12.979 They do tend to lean, 685 00:16:13.059 --> 00:16:13.219 uh, 686 00:16:13.299 --> 00:16:15.880 I would say their data tends to lean a little bit more left, 687 00:16:16.179 --> 00:16:16.340 um, 688 00:16:16.500 --> 00:16:16.840 but 689 00:16:17.179 --> 00:16:17.859 to give you a percent, 690 00:16:17.869 --> 00:16:18.260 uh, 691 00:16:18.270 --> 00:16:20.260 a kind of a perception as to who is undecided, 692 00:16:20.340 --> 00:16:22.340 they did some polling on that data or have some, 693 00:16:22.419 --> 00:16:22.609 uh, 694 00:16:22.619 --> 00:16:23.549 breakdowns of that data. 695 00:16:23.820 --> 00:16:24.239 Um, 696 00:16:24.700 --> 00:16:25.210 first of all, 697 00:16:25.400 --> 00:16:27.599 the people who are undecided are not big Trump fans right now. 698 00:16:28.580 --> 00:16:29.250 They have, 699 00:16:29.289 --> 00:16:29.570 uh, 700 00:16:29.580 --> 00:16:31.159 decided that Trump is not doing a good job. 701 00:16:31.260 --> 00:16:31.979 What they say here, 702 00:16:32.099 --> 00:16:32.619 this is the, 703 00:16:32.659 --> 00:16:32.969 uh, 704 00:16:32.979 --> 00:16:33.359 group, 705 00:16:33.799 --> 00:16:34.719 they're massively, 706 00:16:34.729 --> 00:16:35.159 uh, 707 00:16:35.169 --> 00:16:35.469 uh, 708 00:16:35.479 --> 00:16:35.489 uh, 709 00:16:35.500 --> 00:16:36.659 disapproving of Donald Trump, 710 00:16:36.809 --> 00:16:38.780 69 to 14 is that number. 711 00:16:39.090 --> 00:16:40.890 49% strongly disapprove, 712 00:16:41.020 --> 00:16:43.320 20% somewhat disapproves, 713 00:16:43.460 --> 00:16:44.520 only 12%, 714 00:16:44.750 --> 00:16:45.049 uh, 715 00:16:45.219 --> 00:16:45.739 somewhat approve, 716 00:16:45.780 --> 00:16:46.640 and 2% 717 00:16:46.780 --> 00:16:47.349 strongly disapprove. 718 00:16:47.580

--> 00:16:49.400 That now that makes some sense intuitively because. 719 00:16:49.890 --> 00:16:50.289 You, 720 00:16:50.409 --> 00:16:53.190 you would think the people who really like Trump and approve of them 721 00:16:53.450 --> 00:16:54.929 probably aren't undecided, 722 00:16:55.090 --> 00:16:55.250 right? 723 00:16:55.450 --> 00:16:56.130 Those people are already, 724 00:16:56.250 --> 00:16:57.409 have already picked a candidate. 725 00:16:57.690 --> 00:16:58.770 These people are undecided, 726 00:16:58.890 --> 00:17:01.070 probably previously voted for Trump at least once, 727 00:17:01.369 --> 00:17:02.010 and now we're saying, 728 00:17:02.119 --> 00:17:02.450 wait a minute, 729 00:17:02.489 --> 00:17:03.369 I'm not as happy as I, 730 00:17:03.409 --> 00:17:04.170 as I was. 731 00:17:04.410 --> 00:17:04.949 However, 732 00:17:05.368 --> 00:17:05.890 the people, 733 00:17:05.969 --> 00:17:06.910 as you see here, 734 00:17:07.719 --> 00:17:07.858 Uh, 735 00:17:07.920 --> 00:17:08.900 2 to 1 ratio, 736 00:17:09.358 --> 00:17:10.368 Trump versus Harris, 737 00:17:10.589 --> 00:17:11.319 voted for Trump. 738 00:17:11.430 --> 00:17:12.719 So these are mostly people, 739 00:17:12.880 --> 00:17:13.239 mostly, 740 00:17:13.300 --> 00:17:13.979 not all, 741 00:17:14.280 --> 00:17:14.439 uh, 742 00:17:14.520 --> 00:17:15.000 but the, 743 00:17:15.079 --> 00:17:15.348 the, 744 00:17:15.400 --> 00:17:17.140 the plurality of people here, 745 00:17:17.579 --> 00:17:17.880 um, 746 00:17:18.020 --> 00:17:18.310 uh, 747 00:17:18.479 --> 00:17:20.160 that are assigned to a candidate 748 00:17:20.358 --> 00:17:21.729 are people who are, 749 00:17:21.890 --> 00:17:22.880 who voted for Donald Trump. 750 00:17:23.000 --> 00:17:25.910 So they have at least familiarity of voting Republican before, 751 00:17:26.160 --> 00:17:28.348 lean Republican at one point in their lives, 752 00:17:28.680 --> 00:17:28.760 uh, 753 00:17:28.829 --> 00:17:30.640 at least leaning towards MAGA or Trump. 754 00:17:31.239 --> 00:17:31.400 They, 755 00:17:31.479 --> 00:17:32.630 28% of those people, 756 00:17:32.790 --> 00:17:34.290 15% voted for Harris, 757 00:17:34.560 --> 00:17:34.709 uh, 758 00:17:34.760 --> 00:17:37.479 third party candidates was 18% and then didn't vote at all, 759 00:17:37.520 --> 00:17:38.380 38%. 760 00:17:38.479 --> 00:17:38.760 Again, 761 00:17:38.959 --> 00:17:40.040 will those people come in? 762 00:17:40.280 --> 00:17:40.760 If they do, 763 00:17:40.869 --> 00:17:43.010 they will likely go toward the Democrat, 764 00:17:43.319 --> 00:17:43.819 but 765 00:17:44.280 --> 00:17:45.959 people who didn't vote in 2024, 766 00:17:46.069 --> 00:17:47.420 a presidential year, 767 00:17:47.439 --> 00:17:50.719 are really unlikely to actually get to the polls. 768 00:17:51.099 --> 00:17:53.219 If you didn't bother to vote in 2024, 769 00:17:53.400 --> 00:17:55.890 in a highly contested presidential election 770 00:17:56.119 --> 00:17:57.199 that included Donald Trump, 771 00:17:57.280 --> 00:17:57.520 one of them, 772 00:17:57.599 --> 00:17:58.000 you know. 773 00:17:58.400 --> 00:17:59.119 Whether you like him or not, 774 00:17:59.170 --> 00:18:00.209 either you love him or you hate him, 775 00:18:00.250 --> 00:18:00.609 usually, 776 00:18:00.930 --> 00:18:02.069 very polarizing guy. 777 00:18:03.550 --> 00:18:06.760 You could see why people would be skeptical that those people would 778 00:18:06.760 --> 00:18:10.339 actually show up to vote for Adam Hamilton or Roger Marshall, 779 00:18:10.400 --> 00:18:10.530 right? 780 00:18:10.589 --> 00:18:11.250 Like it's just 781 00:18:11.410 --> 00:18:13.229 the passion levels are usually lower on this, 782 00:18:13.349 --> 00:18:14.369 in those situations. 783 00:18:14.670 --> 00:18:15.089 Um, 784 00:18:15.349 --> 00:18:15.469 now, 785 00:18:15.550 --> 00:18:16.209 I am 786 00:18:16.979 --> 00:18:17.550 a person, 787 00:18:17.589 --> 00:18:18.770 to be honest with you, 788 00:18:19.150 --> 00:18:20.709 and there are a lot of, 789 00:18:20.790 --> 00:18:21.369 uh, 790 00:18:21.469 --> 00:18:21.969 of 791 00:18:22.199 --> 00:18:25.869 early voting tea leaf readers who will tell you different, 792 00:18:25.949 --> 00:18:26.339 uh, 793 00:18:26.589 --> 00:18:27.150 things than this. 794 00:18:27.229 --> 00:18:30.089 I am a person who does not take all that much 795 00:18:30.270 --> 00:18:31.030 from early vote. 796 00:18:32.180 --> 00:18:34.520 There are some pretty smart arguments to be made 797 00:18:34.520 --> 00:18:36.900 that if you look at lower propensity voters, 798 00:18:37.099 --> 00:18:37.219 again, 799 00:18:37.380 --> 00:18:38.500 voters who don't typically vote, 800 00:18:38.579 --> 00:18:40.770 if you can lock those people in and isolate them, 801 00:18:41.099 --> 00:18:42.579 you can get something out of those guys. 802 00:18:42.660 --> 00:18:42.949 But again, 803 00:18:43.060 --> 00:18:45.099 you're talking about a tiny fraction of the audience, 804 00:18:45.140 --> 00:18:45.439 and 805 00:18:45.699 --> 00:18:46.800 I think a lot of times 806 00:18:46.989 --> 00:18:47.369 you get, 807 00:18:47.380 --> 00:18:47.660 uh, 808 00:18:47.670 --> 00:18:48.010 uh, 809 00:18:48.050 --> 00:18:49.369 an overestimation of that. 810 00:18:49.420 --> 00:18:50.359 I find that 811 00:18:50.469 --> 00:18:54.479 early voting data tends to mislead more than it leads correctly. 812 00:18:54.939 --> 00:18:55.180 Um, 813 00:18:55.300 --> 00:18:56.640 so that is my opinion on that. 814 00:18:56.739 --> 00:18:58.410 I wanna show you some of that data anyway, 815 00:18:58.660 --> 00:18:59.739 in case you happen to be, 816 00:18:59.780 --> 00:19:00.130 uh, 817 00:19:00.300 --> 00:19:01.500 in case you happen to disagree. 818 00:19:01.920 --> 00:19:03.130 This is again from, 819 00:19:03.140 --> 00:19:04.099 uh, 820 00:19:04.109 --> 00:19:04.900 Strength in numbers. 821 00:19:05.319 --> 00:19:05.680 Um, 822 00:19:06.849 --> 00:19:08.170 What we normally see 823 00:19:08.530

--> 00:19:09.290 in early dating, 824 00:19:09.390 --> 00:19:09.520 uh, 825 00:19:09.569 --> 00:19:11.770 early voting data is that Democrats get out early. 826 00:19:11.930 --> 00:19:12.800 We all kind of know that, 827 00:19:12.859 --> 00:19:13.130 right? 828 00:19:13.569 --> 00:19:14.750 Democrats vote early 829 00:19:15.050 --> 00:19:15.869 more often 830 00:19:16.010 --> 00:19:16.969 than Republicans do, 831 00:19:17.030 --> 00:19:18.969 and we see that in every single election with one, 832 00:19:19.329 --> 00:19:20.709 actually kind of interesting exception 833 00:19:21.609 --> 00:19:22.589 of 2024. 834 00:19:23.130 --> 00:19:23.239 But, 835 00:19:23.290 --> 00:19:23.479 uh, 836 00:19:23.489 --> 00:19:24.479 looking at the previous elections, 837 00:19:24.489 --> 00:19:24.930 you see, 838 00:19:25.000 --> 00:19:25.119 uh, 839 00:19:25.150 --> 00:19:25.709 uh, 840 00:19:25.770 --> 00:19:26.199 anywhere from, 841 00:19:26.209 --> 00:19:26.630 uh, 842 00:19:26.680 --> 00:19:27.290 8 843 00:19:27.770 --> 00:19:29.430 to 10 point 844 00:19:30.000 --> 00:19:30.400 move, 845 00:19:30.729 --> 00:19:32.189 maybe 5 to 10 point move 846 00:19:32.609 --> 00:19:33.030 from, 847 00:19:33.130 --> 00:19:33.530 uh, 848 00:19:34.150 --> 00:19:34.160 when, 849 00:19:34.209 --> 00:19:34.410 you know, 850 00:19:34.530 --> 00:19:35.359 in early ballots, 851 00:19:35.530 --> 00:19:36.369 more Democratic. 852 00:19:36.790 --> 00:19:37.209 Um, 853 00:19:37.430 --> 00:19:40.310 day of the final electorate being much more Republican. 854 00:19:40.589 --> 00:19:42.010 So you see a big move 855 00:19:42.280 --> 00:19:42.750 from, 856 00:19:42.869 --> 00:19:43.050 uh, 857 00:19:43.069 --> 00:19:44.849 the early voting being more Democratic, 858 00:19:45.109 --> 00:19:47.310 the day of voting being much more Republican, 859 00:19:47.630 --> 00:19:48.380 the average of that, 860 00:19:48.390 --> 00:19:49.760 the final electorate being these, 861 00:19:49.770 --> 00:19:50.280 uh, 862 00:19:50.510 --> 00:19:51.819 dots that are not colored in. 863 00:19:52.020 --> 00:19:52.819 In 2022, 864 00:19:52.859 --> 00:19:54.849 it was a very slight lean toward Republicans. 865 00:19:54.900 --> 00:19:55.420 2024, 866 00:19:55.459 --> 00:19:57.160 a little bit more toward Republicans 867 00:19:57.339 --> 00:19:58.319 with the final vote, 868 00:19:58.660 --> 00:19:58.959 but 869 00:19:59.099 --> 00:19:59.400 that, 870 00:19:59.459 --> 00:20:00.099 uh, 871 00:20:00.119 --> 00:20:00.939 election data, 872 00:20:01.020 --> 00:20:01.329 uh, 873 00:20:01.339 --> 00:20:03.199 looking back to 2018 874 00:20:03.540 --> 00:20:05.839 shows that usually Democrats get out early, 875 00:20:06.030 --> 00:20:06.290 um, 876 00:20:06.420 --> 00:20:08.670 and this is broken down in multiple different ways. 877 00:20:08.780 --> 00:20:10.140 Voted in both previous generals. 878 00:20:10.180 --> 00:20:11.000 They go on to, 879 00:20:11.260 --> 00:20:13.209 if you haven't voted at all or you haven't, 880

00:20:13.260 --> 00:20:13.410 uh, 881 00:20:13.530 --> 00:20:13.619 you know, 882 00:20:13.819 --> 00:20:15.020 go to the next slide if you would. 883 00:20:15.369 --> 00:20:15.760 Um, 884 00:20:15.810 --> 00:20:19.400 these are voted in one out of two previous general elections and two out of two. 885 00:20:19.640 --> 00:20:21.579 What you see generally speaking though, 886 00:20:21.770 --> 00:20:22.869 is the same story 887 00:20:23.050 --> 00:20:24.430 in almost every case, 888 00:20:24.689 --> 00:20:26.369 with the exception of 2024, 889 00:20:26.489 --> 00:20:27.589 which is interesting. 890 00:20:27.810 --> 00:20:28.760 In 2024, 891 00:20:28.810 --> 00:20:30.530 there really wasn't that sort of change. 892 00:20:30.650 --> 00:20:31.069 So, 893 00:20:31.290 --> 00:20:32.089 is that a situation, 894 00:20:32.130 --> 00:20:32.869 and this could be, 895 00:20:32.969 --> 00:20:34.430 this is a plausible theory. 896 00:20:35.030 --> 00:20:35.849 Donald Trump, 897 00:20:36.180 --> 00:20:36.339 uh, 898 00:20:36.430 --> 00:20:37.869 in 2016, 899 00:20:37.910 --> 00:20:39.449 but really more in 2020, 900 00:20:39.510 --> 00:20:41.530 encouraged Republican voters 901 00:20:41.910 --> 00:20:43.540 to not vote early, 902 00:20:43.829 --> 00:20:44.910 to not vote by mail. 903 00:20:45.010 --> 00:20:45.510 It's corrupt, 904 00:20:45.589 --> 00:20:46.369 it's a corrupt system. 905 00:20:46.469 --> 00:20:46.660 It's, 906 00:20:46.709 --> 00:20:47.050 you know, 907 00:20:47.270 --> 00:20:47.829 the only state, 908 00:20:47.839 --> 00:20:48.109 honestly, 909 00:20:48.189 --> 00:20:50.829 you go back to 2020 where he encouraged it was Florida, 910 00:20:50.839 --> 00:20:53.709 and it was basically his best performing state of the election. 911 00:20:54.199 --> 00:20:54.349 Uh, 912 00:20:54.400 --> 00:20:55.420 I don't think that's a coincidence. 913 00:20:55.750 --> 00:20:55.930 Um, 914 00:20:56.079 --> 00:20:56.640 they just, 915 00:20:56.869 --> 00:20:57.979 they saw that same data, 916 00:20:58.119 --> 00:21:00.640 and in 2024 they stopped saying don't vote early, 917 00:21:00.760 --> 00:21:01.280 don't vote in, 918 00:21:01.369 --> 00:21:01.439 in, 919 00:21:01.530 --> 00:21:02.109 in the elections, 920 00:21:02.119 --> 00:21:02.439 and 921 00:21:02.599 --> 00:21:04.900 like you might say like there's fraud in those elections or whatever, 922 00:21:05.199 --> 00:21:05.359 uh, 923 00:21:05.479 --> 00:21:07.180 when it comes to early voting and mail-in voting. 924 00:21:07.239 --> 00:21:07.380 The, 925 00:21:07.390 --> 00:21:07.989 the, 926 00:21:08.000 --> 00:21:08.680 the thing about it, 927 00:21:08.760 --> 00:21:11.060 it's really valuable to campaigns. 928 00:21:11.599 --> 00:21:13.780 Campaigns love when you vote early because 929 00:21:13.959 --> 00:21:15.140 when you vote early, 930 00:21:15.599 --> 00:21:19.540 they can check you off the list and stop using resources to try to get you out to vote. 931 00:21:20.000 --> 00:21:20.680 So they love it. 932 00:21:21.130 --> 00:21:21.849 When you vote early, 933 00:21:22.050 --> 00:21:22.810 if you vote early, 934 00:21:22.930 --> 00:21:24.810 you'll stop getting text messages constantly, 935 00:21:24.930 --> 00:21:25.000 uh, 936 00:21:25.050 --> 00:21:26.349 in a lot of cases because 937 00:21:26.489 --> 00:21:27.479 you get checked off the list. 938 00:21:27.530 --> 00:21:28.930 They see that you voted and then you're, 939 00:21:29.239 --> 00:21:30.869 they don't need to spend any money on you anymore. 940 00:21:31.369 --> 00:21:32.040 They love that. 941 00:21:32.310 --> 00:21:33.989 So now Republicans have been considering, 942 00:21:34.089 --> 00:21:34.390 uh, 943 00:21:34.530 --> 00:21:35.290 they've changed that, 944 00:21:35.329 --> 00:21:35.469 uh, 945 00:21:35.479 --> 00:21:36.050 outlook and said, 946 00:21:36.130 --> 00:21:36.280 look, 947 00:21:36.369 --> 00:21:37.209 just go and vote early. 948 00:21:37.479 --> 00:21:38.969 2024 was the first time they tried that, 949 00:21:39.010 --> 00:21:39.800 and you see that data, 950 00:21:39.890 --> 00:21:40.250 not, 951 00:21:40.489 --> 00:21:41.530 not as much leaning, 952 00:21:41.810 --> 00:21:41.920 uh, 953 00:21:42.000 --> 00:21:44.459 in the Republican way for day of voting. 954 00:21:44.520 --> 00:21:45.790 So that's gonna be interesting to see. 955 00:21:46.819 --> 00:21:48.170 When it comes to prediction markets, 956 00:21:48.589 --> 00:21:50.369 this is all really interesting information. 957 00:21:50.550 --> 00:21:50.890 I 958 00:21:51.349 --> 00:21:52.579 think a lot of the movement lately, 959 00:21:52.630 --> 00:21:53.469 I dove into this, 960 00:21:53.569 --> 00:21:54.060 uh, 961 00:21:54.069 --> 00:21:54.310 deeply, 962 00:21:54.369 --> 00:21:56.250 maybe we'll get into this on another show as well. 963 00:21:56.630 --> 00:21:57.050 Um, 964 00:21:57.349 --> 00:21:58.510 what's moving the markets right now, 965 00:21:58.550 --> 00:22:00.229 it does seem to be early voting, 966 00:22:00.300 --> 00:22:00.500 uh, 967 00:22:00.619 --> 00:22:01.109 voting data, 968 00:22:01.189 --> 00:22:02.349 even more than polling. 969 00:22:02.829 --> 00:22:03.089 Um, 970 00:22:03.359 --> 00:22:04.640 Texas is a good example of this. 971 00:22:04.760 --> 00:22:05.640 In Texas, 972 00:22:06.119 --> 00:22:08.119 the polling for Greg Abbott has been pretty good, 973 00:22:08.339 --> 00:22:10.229 better than previously in the cycle, 974 00:22:10.479 --> 00:22:12.660 and his actual percentages have dropped. 975 00:22:12.880 --> 00:22:13.280 Why? 976 00:22:13.400 --> 00:22:15.459 Early voting data in Texas looks pretty bad 977 00:22:15.760 --> 00:22:16.699 for Republicans. 978 00:22:16.959 --> 00:22:17.839 What do I take out of that? 979 00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:18.520 Not much. 980 00:22:19.540 --> 00:22:20.449 I don't take much out of it, 981 00:22:20.459 --> 00:22:21.540 and I could be wrong on this. 982 00:22:21.579 --> 00:22:24.180 We might find that this is the time where early voting data has

been predictive. 983 00:22:24.459 --> 00:22:26.489 What I've seen about early voting data is it, 984 00:22:26.540 --> 00:22:28.359 it tends to mislead you more 985 00:22:28.489 --> 00:22:29.569 than it leads you in the right direction, 986 00:22:29.579 --> 00:22:30.630 and over and over again, 987 00:22:30.859 --> 00:22:31.099 we've, 988 00:22:31.219 --> 00:22:32.079 we've been told 989 00:22:32.619 --> 00:22:33.780 by early voting data, 990 00:22:33.859 --> 00:22:34.089 uh, 991 00:22:34.260 --> 00:22:36.239 soothsayers what's gonna happen in an election, 992 00:22:36.339 --> 00:22:37.579 and then it doesn't wind up happening. 993 00:22:38.000 --> 00:22:39.959 So I don't really pay much attention to it. 994 00:22:40.160 --> 00:22:40.270 Uh, 995 00:22:40.319 --> 00:22:41.530 if you have somebody who you really love, 996 00:22:41.599 --> 00:22:41.839 you know, 997 00:22:42.040 --> 00:22:42.319 go ahead, 998 00:22:42.479 --> 00:22:42.599 uh, 999 00:22:42.719 --> 00:22:42.959 you know, 1000 00:22:43.760 --> 00:22:43.969 free, 1001 00:22:44.199 --> 00:22:47.800 feel free to share it on the predictable show.com chats because I'll look 1002 00:22:47.800 --> 00:22:49.979 at the data all day long and some of it is convincing, 1003 00:22:50.280 --> 00:22:50.869 but generally speaking, 1004 00:22:50.920 --> 00:22:51.719 I don't think much about it. 1005 00:22:51.790 --> 00:22:52.160 I was talking, 1006 00:22:52.599 --> 00:22:52.790 uh, 1007 00:22:53.040 --> 00:22:54.540 what's interesting about this is you can use 1008 00:22:54.859 --> 00:22:56.339 prediction markets to do 1009 00:22:56.520 --> 00:22:57.260 different things 1010 00:22:57.430 --> 00:22:57.920 in these moments. 1011 00:22:58.040 --> 00:22:58.160 Yes, 1012 00:22:58.239 --> 00:22:58.599 you can do, 1013 00:22:58.760 --> 00:22:59.959 do them for pure profit, 1014 00:23:00.099 --> 00:23:00.189 uh, 1015 00:23:00.400 --> 00:23:00.819 potential, 1016 00:23:01.160 --> 00:23:03.380 and it also helps deliver a better result, 1017 00:23:03.760 --> 00:23:03.920 uh, 1018 00:23:04.040 --> 00:23:05.959 to the American people when it comes to their information diet. 1019 00:23:06.000 --> 00:23:06.939 I think that's a positive. 1020 00:23:07.859 --> 00:23:08.410 However, 1021 00:23:08.689 --> 00:23:09.969 you can also kind of hedge your life. 1022 00:23:10.099 --> 00:23:11.380 I've talked about hedging your life a lot. 1023 00:23:11.459 --> 00:23:12.479 I do it all the time, 1024 00:23:12.699 --> 00:23:13.089 um, 1025 00:23:13.199 --> 00:23:13.770 uh, 1026 00:23:13.780 --> 00:23:16.810 because I believe if I'm gonna have something that makes my life worse, 1027 00:23:16.859 --> 00:23:17.699 I should get paid for it. 1028 00:23:18.410 --> 00:23:18.770 Um, 1029 00:23:18.849 --> 00:23:19.349 you know, 1030 00:23:19.609 --> 00:23:20.290 I had to work with, 1031 00:23:20.369 --> 00:23:20.619 uh, 1032 00:23:20.760 --> 00:23:21.810 with Jeffy for many, 1033 00:23:21.890 --> 00:23:22.550 many years, 1034 00:23:22.810

--> 00:23:24.050 and I had to be paid for that. 1035 00:23:24.410 --> 00:23:24.530 Uh, 1036 00:23:24.609 --> 00:23:25.930 so you get the sense of, 1037 00:23:26.030 --> 00:23:26.829 of 1038 00:23:27.170 --> 00:23:27.890 when you want, 1039 00:23:28.089 --> 00:23:28.119 uh, 1040 00:23:28.250 --> 00:23:30.109 it's one of the central things that I think about, 1041 00:23:30.449 --> 00:23:31.150 and it goes, 1042 00:23:31.209 --> 00:23:32.089 I was talking to Dave Landau, 1043 00:23:32.209 --> 00:23:32.810 who I do a show with, 1044 00:23:32.880 --> 00:23:33.010 uh, 1045 00:23:33.209 --> 00:23:34.229 Stu and Dave do America, 1046 00:23:34.650 --> 00:23:34.890 um, 1047 00:23:35.050 --> 00:23:35.780 it's on Blaze TV. 1048 00:23:36.010 --> 00:23:36.609 If you haven't seen it, 1049 00:23:36.849 --> 00:23:37.400 I think you'll like it. 1050 00:23:37.410 --> 00:23:37.890 It's funny. 1051 00:23:38.130 --> 00:23:38.630 He's funny. 1052 00:23:38.969 --> 00:23:39.130 Um, 1053 00:23:39.239 --> 00:23:40.520 and so we're doing a, 1054 00:23:40.609 --> 00:23:40.699 a, 1055 00:23:40.770 --> 00:23:42.099 a show about the, 1056 00:23:42.209 --> 00:23:42.829 uh, 1057 00:23:42.930 --> 00:23:43.170 elections, 1058 00:23:43.329 --> 00:23:43.609 and, 1059 00:23:43.650 --> 00:23:43.849 uh, 1060 00:23:43.930 --> 00:23:44.810 we kind of go to the break, 1061 00:23:44.849 --> 00:23:45.209 and he says, 1062 00:23:45.329 --> 00:23:45.410 yeah, 1063 00:23:45.489 --> 00:23:45.640 I've, 1064 00:23:45.810 --> 00:23:46.709 I've got some money on, 1065 00:23:46.770 --> 00:23:46.880 uh, 1066 00:23:47.010 --> 00:23:47.469 Calci. 1067 00:23:48.280 --> 00:23:49.369 On El Sayed to win. 1068 00:23:49.449 --> 00:23:50.170 He lives in Michigan. 1069 00:23:50.290 --> 00:23:50.689 He's saying, 1070 00:23:50.770 --> 00:23:50.890 I, 1071 00:23:50.930 --> 00:23:51.449 I just, 1072 00:23:51.689 --> 00:23:52.930 I don't want El Sayed to be my senator. 1073 00:23:52.939 --> 00:23:53.109 I'm, 1074 00:23:53.170 --> 00:23:54.229 I'm basically trying to, 1075 00:23:54.420 --> 00:23:54.599 uh, 1076 00:23:54.849 --> 00:23:55.729 this way I'll win either way. 1077 00:23:55.780 --> 00:23:56.010 I'm like, 1078 00:23:56.050 --> 00:23:57.050 you're hedging your life. 1079 00:23:57.449 --> 00:23:58.630 This is what this is. 1080 00:23:58.930 --> 00:23:59.329 And 1081 00:24:00.250 --> 00:24:00.930 Because 1082 00:24:01.089 --> 00:24:02.130 a representative of your state, 1083 00:24:02.290 --> 00:24:02.959 particularly governor, 1084 00:24:03.010 --> 00:24:05.569 can make your life considerably worse if they win, 1085 00:24:05.609 --> 00:24:05.760 if, 1086 00:24:05.810 --> 00:24:06.010 if, 1087 00:24:06.089 --> 00:24:07.589 if you don't like their policies. 1088 00:24:08.089 --> 00:24:08.290 I mean, 1089 00:24:08.329 --> 00:24:09.430 you can really do this, 1090 00:24:09.449 --> 00:24:09.900 uh, 1091 00:24:10.010 --> 00:24:10.369 down the, 1092 00:24:10.449 --> 00:24:10.680 the, 1093 00:24:10.689 --> 00:24:11.229

down the line. 1094 00:24:11.810 --> 00:24:14.000 You should get paid if you, 1095 00:24:14.069 --> 00:24:14.239 uh, 1096 00:24:14.250 --> 00:24:14.449 if you, 1097 00:24:14.520 --> 00:24:16.469 if a candidate that you think is gonna make your life worse, 1098 00:24:16.689 --> 00:24:17.719 is going to get elected, 1099 00:24:17.890 --> 00:24:18.810 and they're gonna make your life worse, 1100 00:24:18.920 --> 00:24:19.599 you should get paid for that. 1101 00:24:19.650 --> 00:24:20.829 You should get compensated for it. 1102 00:24:21.130 --> 00:24:23.109 And you can actually look at this and try to calculate 1103 00:24:23.530 --> 00:24:24.430 exactly what's going on. 1104 00:24:24.489 --> 00:24:24.569 When, 1105 00:24:24.689 --> 00:24:24.890 when, 1106 00:24:24.930 --> 00:24:26.550 in 2028 is a good example of this. 1107 00:24:26.770 --> 00:24:29.290 If a left-wing candidate were to win in 2028, 1108 00:24:29.449 --> 00:24:32.469 it's likely your taxes would go up and that would cost you actual money. 1109 00:24:32.770 --> 00:24:33.910 You can hedge that risk 1110 00:24:34.040 --> 00:24:35.050 on prediction markets. 1111 00:24:35.640 --> 00:24:37.609 And that is something that I've done in the past. 1112 00:24:37.729 --> 00:24:38.969 It doesn't mean you can get all of, 1113 00:24:39.079 --> 00:24:39.369 you know, 1114 00:24:39.540 --> 00:24:39.989 tax, 1115 00:24:40.189 --> 00:24:41.650 tax burdens can be very large, 1116 00:24:41.890 --> 00:24:43.449 but you can get paid some of that money back, 1117 00:24:43.500 --> 00:24:44.369 hedge it a little bit, 1118 00:24:44.650 --> 00:24:44.770 uh, 1119 00:24:44.810 --> 00:24:46.089 if you understand how to do that. 1120 00:24:46.130 --> 00:24:47.359 And as we get closer to 2028, 1121 00:24:47.410 --> 00:24:47.530 we'll, 1122 00:24:47.599 --> 00:24:48.949 we'll talk about that a little bit more. 1123 00:24:49.319 --> 00:24:49.489 Um, 1124 00:24:49.540 --> 00:24:53.030 you can also hedge your life by just going into the Senate Fantasy League, 1125 00:24:53.209 --> 00:24:53.540 uh, 1126 00:24:53.640 --> 00:24:53.689 website, 1127 00:24:53.810 --> 00:24:55.089 SenateFantassy.com, 1128 00:24:55.410 --> 00:24:56.609 and put a team in there. 1129 00:24:56.689 --> 00:24:57.449 It is free. 1130 00:24:58.359 --> 00:24:58.479 Uh, 1131 00:24:58.569 --> 00:24:59.270 when you do that, 1132 00:24:59.520 --> 00:25:00.579 you go in there and you can pick 1133 00:25:00.920 --> 00:25:02.030 all candidates you don't like, 1134 00:25:02.119 --> 00:25:03.020 and if they all win, 1135 00:25:03.319 --> 00:25:05.780 you'll do really well in the Senate Fantasy League and maybe make some money. 1136 00:25:05.949 --> 00:25:06.239 Um, 1137 00:25:06.439 --> 00:25:07.030 we are, 1138 00:25:07.079 --> 00:25:07.239 uh, 1139 00:25:07.319 --> 00:25:09.599 we have about 500 teams in right now. 1140 00:25:09.680 --> 00:25:10.849 We'd love to get your team in. 1141 00:25:11.229 --> 00:25:11.800 500 teams, 1142 00:25:11.839 --> 00:25:12.010

there's, 1143 00:25:12.119 --> 00:25:12.760 I think there's, 1144 00:25:12.959 --> 00:25:13.459 uh, 1145 00:25:13.479 --> 00:25:14.859 the top 10 all get cash. 1146 00:25:15.119 --> 00:25:17.199 So you're talking about a 1 in 50 chance of winning cash. 1147 00:25:17.349 --> 00:25:18.040 Why wouldn't you take that? 1148 00:25:18.109 --> 00:25:18.579 It's free. 1149 00:25:18.880 --> 00:25:19.959 It's a free opportunity, 1150 00:25:20.199 --> 00:25:20.319 uh, 1151 00:25:20.400 --> 00:25:21.310 to win some money. 1152 00:25:21.439 --> 00:25:22.319 I was thinking about it, 1153 00:25:22.479 --> 00:25:23.359 I was thinking about this. 1154 00:25:23.439 --> 00:25:24.800 I have not run this by anybody yet. 1155 00:25:25.150 --> 00:25:26.150 But also giving like, 1156 00:25:26.280 --> 00:25:26.560 I don't know, 1157 00:25:26.599 --> 00:25:29.750 100 bucks to whoever finishes in dead last place. 1158 00:25:30.119 --> 00:25:32.859 If you are capable of coming in last place in this, 1159 00:25:33.130 --> 00:25:34.640 maybe we come up with a prize for that too, 1160 00:25:34.719 --> 00:25:35.109 cause I, 1161 00:25:35.479 --> 00:25:35.719 you know, 1162 00:25:35.920 --> 00:25:36.000 again, 1163 00:25:36.079 --> 00:25:36.520 just luck, 1164 00:25:36.640 --> 00:25:38.209 you think you're gonna win some of these cases, 1165 00:25:38.400 --> 00:25:38.670 uh, 1166 00:25:38.680 --> 00:25:39.500 races anyway. 1167 00:25:39.640 --> 00:25:40.050 Um, 1168 00:25:40.400 --> 00:25:40.660 so, 1169 00:25:40.729 --> 00:25:41.479 Senate Fantasy.com, 1170 00:25:41.560 --> 00:25:42.310 do we have the leaderboard up? 1171 00:25:42.390 --> 00:25:45.300 One thing we added as a feature because some of these names are so great, 1172 00:25:45.760 --> 00:25:45.869 uh, 1173 00:25:45.920 --> 00:25:47.540 you can now like the names as well. 1174 00:25:47.800 --> 00:25:48.069 Um, 1175 00:25:48.160 --> 00:25:50.400 we just launched this like a couple of hours ago, 1176 00:25:50.520 --> 00:25:51.979 so you click on the heart next to it 1177 00:25:52.119 --> 00:25:53.119 and we'll see who likes, 1178 00:25:53.160 --> 00:25:53.390 uh, 1179 00:25:53.400 --> 00:25:53.640 the name. 1180 00:25:53.719 --> 00:25:54.800 Maybe we'll come up with a prize. 1181 00:25:55.055 --> 00:25:56.084 Some merch or something 1182 00:25:56.265 --> 00:25:57.104 for whoever, 1183 00:25:57.145 --> 00:25:57.665 uh, 1184 00:25:57.824 --> 00:25:58.224 whatever, 1185 00:25:58.305 --> 00:25:58.614 uh, 1186 00:25:58.785 --> 00:25:59.655 name does well. 1187 00:25:59.854 --> 00:26:00.064 Right now, 1188 00:26:00.224 --> 00:26:02.005 Jay Rogue Fighters is in first place. 1189 00:26:02.185 --> 00:26:02.375 Um, 1190 00:26:02.425 --> 00:26:03.285 you kind of look down, 1191 00:26:03.505 --> 00:26:04.295 let's go Brewers, 1192 00:26:04.375 --> 00:26:04.535 uh, 1193 00:26:04.545 --> 00:26:05.704 might get a double win here, 1194 00:26:05.824 --> 00:26:05.905 uh, 1195 00:26:05.984 --> 00:26:08.265 winning the World Series and also

winning the fantasy league. 1196 00:26:08.535 --> 00:26:09.704 Kandahar and Jalalabad, 1197 00:26:09.775 --> 00:26:10.185 I love that one. 1198 00:26:10.234 --> 00:26:12.744 That was an old bit we did on Glenn's show in like 2001. 1199 00:26:12.785 --> 00:26:14.064 That's an old-timey listener. 1200 00:26:14.165 --> 00:26:14.724 I love it. 1201 00:26:15.064 --> 00:26:15.775 Uh, 1202 00:26:16.064 --> 00:26:16.285 great, 1203 00:26:16.425 --> 00:26:16.584 uh, 1204 00:26:16.744 --> 00:26:16.765 name, 1205 00:26:16.905 --> 00:26:18.285 neither Steve nor Stu. 1206 00:26:18.739 --> 00:26:18.979 Uh, 1207 00:26:19.060 --> 00:26:19.219 is, 1208 00:26:19.300 --> 00:26:20.439 is in there as well. 1209 00:26:20.619 --> 00:26:21.939 Ilhan's Legal Fund. 1210 00:26:22.099 --> 00:26:22.660 I don't know if we, 1211 00:26:22.859 --> 00:26:24.640 do we want Ilhan's Legal Fund to win? 1212 00:26:25.010 --> 00:26:25.140 Uh, 1213 00:26:25.420 --> 00:26:26.500 tons and tons of great ones on there. 1214 00:26:26.579 --> 00:26:26.859 Go down, 1215 00:26:27.180 --> 00:26:27.939 scroll around, 1216 00:26:28.180 --> 00:26:29.599 click on whatever you want. 1217 00:26:29.859 --> 00:26:30.140 Um, 1218 00:26:30.219 --> 00:26:30.599 we've got, 1219 00:26:30.699 --> 00:26:31.089 uh, 1220 00:26:31.260 --> 00:26:31.900 Steve Krakauer, 1221 00:26:32.020 --> 00:26:33.959 Megyn Kelly's executive producer is in there now. 1222 00:26:34.050 --> 00:26:34.260 Uh, 1223 00:26:34.459 --> 00:26:34.900 uh, 1224 00:26:35.160 --> 00:26:35.260 uh, 1225 00:26:35.339 --> 00:26:35.760 PMT, 1226 00:26:35.819 --> 00:26:36.949 the prediction market trader, 1227 00:26:37.010 --> 00:26:38.890 one of the top traders in the world is in this. 1228 00:26:39.219 --> 00:26:39.500 Go in there, 1229 00:26:39.619 --> 00:26:40.540 see how you match up against them. 1230 00:26:40.579 --> 00:26:41.250 And then you have me. 1231 00:26:41.339 --> 00:26:41.780 I'm, 1232 00:26:41.989 --> 00:26:43.650 I'm in 84th place right now, 1233 00:26:43.859 --> 00:26:44.780 85th place. 1234 00:26:45.430 --> 00:26:46.369 I'm gonna pass everybody. 1235 00:26:46.449 --> 00:26:46.989 Don't worry about it. 1236 00:26:47.069 --> 00:26:47.780 It just takes time. 1237 00:26:48.020 --> 00:26:48.300 OK, 1238 00:26:48.469 --> 00:26:48.550 uh, 1239 00:26:48.630 --> 00:26:48.829 go there, 1240 00:26:48.910 --> 00:26:49.869 Senate Fantasy.com. 1241 00:26:49.949 --> 00:26:50.140 Get in. 1242 00:26:50.150 --> 00:26:50.949 You only have a week left, 1243 00:26:51.030 --> 00:26:51.869 but you do have a week. 1244 00:26:52.189 --> 00:26:53.170 Get your team in there. 1245 00:26:53.550 --> 00:26:54.810 Be one of the people that can win. 1246 00:26:54.949 --> 00:26:55.630 I would love to fund. 1247 00:26:55.709 --> 00:26:57.930 I would love to fund your prediction market account. 1248 00:26:58.390 --> 00:26:58.469 Uh, 1249 00:26:58.540 --> 00:27:00.130 2500 bucks first prize. 1250 00:27:00.229 --> 00:27:01.709 I think there's $1000 for second prize.

1251 00:27:01.790 --> 00:27:02.699 It goes all the way down. 1252 00:27:02.949 --> 00:27:03.030 Uh, 1253 00:27:03.069 --> 00:27:03.510 the top 10, 1254 00:27:03.550 --> 00:27:04.969 I think all of them win cash. 1255 00:27:05.469 --> 00:27:05.869 Get in, 1256 00:27:05.949 --> 00:27:06.099 uh, 1257 00:27:06.180 --> 00:27:06.949 and there's also prizes, 1258 00:27:06.989 --> 00:27:08.339 I think for the whole top 100. 1259 00:27:08.630 --> 00:27:08.810 So, 1260 00:27:09.109 --> 00:27:09.689 lots of chances, 1261 00:27:09.790 --> 00:27:11.000 1 in 5 chance to win something. 1262 00:27:11.689 --> 00:27:13.489 Go to that Senate Fantasy.com, 1263 00:27:13.810 --> 00:27:14.469 free to join. 1264 00:27:14.849 --> 00:27:15.310 Check it out. 1265 00:27:15.550 --> 00:27:16.400 Senate Fantasy.com. 1266 00:27:16.449 --> 00:27:17.000 Back in a second. 1267 00:27:34.939 --> 00:27:37.530 So there's a big election coming up here in 8 days. 1268 00:27:37.660 --> 00:27:40.020 There was another election that happened over the weekend 1269 00:27:40.339 --> 00:27:41.500 in Brazil, 1270 00:27:41.579 --> 00:27:43.780 and it was kind of a big prediction market story. 1271 00:27:43.969 --> 00:27:47.760 Lula wins Brazil's presidency in stunning blow 1272 00:27:48.020 --> 00:27:49.890 to Latin America's right. 1273 00:27:50.260 --> 00:27:50.369 Uh, 1274 00:27:50.420 --> 00:27:53.319 you'll be shocked to hear that there's some controversy around this election. 1275 00:27:53.689 --> 00:27:54.020 Um, 1276 00:27:54.180 --> 00:27:54.380 I, 1277 00:27:54.500 --> 00:27:56.420 there's also prediction market lessons to be learned. 1278 00:27:56.579 --> 00:27:57.170 Scottylicious, 1279 00:27:57.229 --> 00:27:57.339 uh, 1280 00:27:57.420 --> 00:27:59.280 David Ben Susan who has been on the program a couple of times. 1281 00:27:59.739 --> 00:27:59.939 Uh, 1282 00:28:00.060 --> 00:28:02.380 he reminds us of a very important tip. 1283 00:28:03.099 --> 00:28:05.589 Very important tip about this when it comes to prediction markets. 1284 00:28:05.959 --> 00:28:06.359 He says, 1285 00:28:06.439 --> 00:28:06.630 uh, 1286 00:28:06.680 --> 00:28:08.140 never chase losses. 1287 00:28:08.520 --> 00:28:10.880 I lost a lot on the first round of the Brazil race, 1288 00:28:10.959 --> 00:28:13.859 but still had some Lula bought in the low 60s for the final round. 1289 00:28:14.199 --> 00:28:16.310 It might have been tempting to buy a bunch of Bolsonaro 1290 00:28:16.310 --> 00:28:18.550 to win in round two because he was heavily favored. 1291 00:28:18.800 --> 00:28:19.160 Instead, 1292 00:28:19.239 --> 00:28:23.180 we held tight to the Lula shares we bought and bought more in the low 80s last night 1293 00:28:23.319 --> 00:28:24.709 when things became obvious. 1294 00:28:24.920 --> 00:28:26.640 I think over the years I've assimilated the 1295 00:28:26.640 --> 00:28:29.520 idea that chasing losses is a poor proposition. 1296 00:28:30.140 --> 00:28:31.119 Now I have to remember 1297 00:28:31.579 --> 00:28:31.920 the, 1298 00:28:31.930 --> 00:28:32.209 uh, 1299 00:28:32.219 --> 00:28:34.420 another important lesson stay the hell away from 1300 00:28:34.420 --> 00:28:37.229 unpredictable Latin American elections in the first place. 1301 00:28:37.390 --> 00:28:37.619 I mean, 1302 00:28:37.699 --> 00:28:39.770 there might be two constitutional amendments in there. 1303 00:28:40.020 --> 00:28:40.579 Number one, 1304 00:28:40.699 --> 00:28:40.859 the, 1305 00:28:40.900 --> 00:28:41.219 uh, 1306 00:28:41.300 --> 00:28:42.699 the Scotty amendment, 1307 00:28:42.979 --> 00:28:43.290 um, 1308 00:28:43.380 --> 00:28:43.849 which is, 1309 00:28:43.859 --> 00:28:44.319 uh, 1310 00:28:44.780 --> 00:28:45.180 uh, 1311 00:28:45.280 --> 00:28:47.400 chasing losses is a poor proposition. 1312 00:28:47.780 --> 00:28:48.680 I like the wording of it. 1313 00:28:48.739 --> 00:28:49.709 I think that might be our next, 1314 00:28:49.739 --> 00:28:49.969 uh, 1315 00:28:49.979 --> 00:28:51.739 constitutional amendment if he doesn't mind us using it. 1316 00:28:51.979 --> 00:28:54.359 And then also stay the hell away from unpredictable Latin 1317 00:28:54.359 --> 00:28:57.119 American elections because when has there ever been anything that's gone 1318 00:28:57.260 --> 00:28:58.079 awry at all 1319 00:28:58.619 --> 00:28:59.680 in a Latin American election? 1320 00:28:59.859 --> 00:29:00.819 Everything seems just, 1321 00:29:00.939 --> 00:29:02.239 just perfect all the time, 1322 00:29:02.660 --> 00:29:02.819 uh, 1323 00:29:02.979 --> 00:29:04.099 never any controversy. 1324 00:29:04.410 --> 00:29:06.829 Bolsonaro is saying he thinks the election was stolen. 1325 00:29:07.060 --> 00:29:08.020 It's one of those things that, 1326 00:29:08.170 --> 00:29:08.260 you know, 1327 00:29:08.349 --> 00:29:08.750 of course, 1328 00:29:08.859 --> 00:29:09.209 I don't know, 1329 00:29:09.260 --> 00:29:11.819 it seems like over the past decade or so every single 1330 00:29:11.819 --> 00:29:13.770 candidate that has lost an election has said it's stolen. 1331 00:29:14.050 --> 00:29:14.109 Uh, 1332 00:29:14.180 --> 00:29:14.410 however, 1333 00:29:14.479 --> 00:29:15.540 a little more credibility in, 1334 00:29:15.650 --> 00:29:18.010 in random Latin American elections. 1335 00:29:18.260 --> 00:29:20.199 We will see if there's any credibility to that. 1336 00:29:20.550 --> 00:29:20.800 Um, 1337 00:29:20.880 --> 00:29:22.619 prediction markets are getting 1338 00:29:23.040 --> 00:29:24.699 hit today because of this election. 1339 00:29:25.540 --> 00:29:25.859 Why? 1340 00:29:25.949 --> 00:29:26.060 Well, 1341 00:29:26.140 --> 00:29:26.359 as, 1342 00:29:26.420 --> 00:29:27.319 uh, 1343 00:29:27.329 --> 00:29:28.020 David mentioned, 1344 00:29:28.880 --> 00:29:33.260 This is a situation where Bolsonaro was favored going into this election night. 1345 00:29:33.479 --> 00:29:33.630 And, 1346 00:29:33.640 --> 00:29:33.890 uh, 1347 00:29:33.920 --> 00:29:34.079 you know, 1348 00:29:34.119

--> 00:29:36.119 if you look anywhere on Twitter or anything else, 1349 00:29:36.199 --> 00:29:36.709 people are all saying, 1350 00:29:36.760 --> 00:29:37.079 oh, 1351 00:29:37.319 --> 00:29:37.510 see, 1352 00:29:37.630 --> 00:29:39.229 prediction markets don't predict anything. 1353 00:29:39.560 --> 00:29:40.729 Look at this chart, 1354 00:29:41.040 --> 00:29:41.270 and, 1355 00:29:41.280 --> 00:29:41.719 uh, 1356 00:29:41.729 --> 00:29:42.939 I'll show you the chart in a second. 1357 00:29:43.199 --> 00:29:45.040 We're also getting this from the mainstream media, 1358 00:29:45.160 --> 00:29:46.420 prediction markets credibility 1359 00:29:46.599 --> 00:29:48.300 on the line in midterms. 1360 00:29:48.719 --> 00:29:49.349 And of course, 1361 00:29:49.400 --> 00:29:50.219 that is true. 1362 00:29:50.479 --> 00:29:51.660 It is on the line. 1363 00:29:51.959 --> 00:29:53.380 The reason I know that is because 1364 00:29:53.560 --> 00:29:54.880 it's always on the line. 1365 00:29:54.989 --> 00:29:57.800 Every single time prediction markets predict anything. 1366 00:29:58.329 --> 00:30:02.119 We are told that they have to predict it correctly or they have no credibility. 1367 00:30:02.569 --> 00:30:02.839 That is, 1368 00:30:02.849 --> 00:30:03.140 of course, 1369 00:30:03.209 --> 00:30:04.910 an idiotic uh idea, 1370 00:30:05.250 --> 00:30:07.790 and I can show you evidence of that here in a moment. 1371 00:30:08.699 --> 00:30:09.599 I will also say, 1372 00:30:09.619 --> 00:30:10.900 I do get it here. 1373 00:30:11.020 --> 00:30:12.530 I do get that I am pulling, 1374 00:30:12.540 --> 00:30:14.319 I am pushing a very heavy 1375 00:30:14.780 --> 00:30:15.560 uh stone 1376 00:30:16.339 --> 00:30:17.640 up a very steep 1377 00:30:17.780 --> 00:30:20.319 hill when I'm asking the American 1378 00:30:20.449 --> 00:30:22.160 population to understand probability. 1379 00:30:22.660 --> 00:30:23.839 You being here, 1380 00:30:23.859 --> 00:30:24.849 might be a little different. 1381 00:30:25.060 --> 00:30:27.209 You might be able to intake these things and understand them. 1382 00:30:27.380 --> 00:30:29.260 You have to understand that most people don't, 1383 00:30:29.339 --> 00:30:31.719 or at least don't care enough to think about it. 1384 00:30:31.910 --> 00:30:32.099 Um, 1385 00:30:32.140 --> 00:30:32.489 and that's, 1386 00:30:32.500 --> 00:30:32.739 of course, 1387 00:30:32.849 --> 00:30:33.599 social media, 1388 00:30:33.780 --> 00:30:36.780 it makes that problem 10 times worse than it probably even is. 1389 00:30:37.790 --> 00:30:41.209 Probability is something that is included when you're talking about these things, 1390 00:30:41.270 --> 00:30:45.050 and it is very difficult for the average person to understand because to be fair, 1391 00:30:45.270 --> 00:30:45.689 they don't 1392 00:30:45.949 --> 00:30:46.310 trade, 1393 00:30:46.469 --> 00:30:47.449 they don't care 1394 00:30:47.560 --> 00:30:48.400 about this stuff. 1395 00:30:48.630 --> 00:30:48.829 Um, 1396 00:30:48.949 --> 00:30:51.540 so they don't care about your stupid probability arguments. 1397 00:30:51.739 --> 00:30:53.130 What they care about is who's gonna win, 1398 00:30:53.459 --> 00:30:54.670 because that's what affects their lives. 1399 00:30:54.790 --> 00:30:55.000 They don't, 1400 00:30:55.280 --> 00:30:55.859 they're not trading, 1401 00:30:55.939 --> 00:30:56.150 they don't, 1402 00:30:56.229 --> 00:30:56.630 they don't care. 1403 00:30:56.709 --> 00:30:57.650 They just wanna know who's gonna win. 1404 00:30:57.910 --> 00:31:00.430 And if you tell them one candidate's gonna win and that candidate loses, 1405 00:31:00.910 --> 00:31:01.410 well, 1406 00:31:02.430 --> 00:31:04.589 Then you've lied to them and you have no credibility. 1407 00:31:04.709 --> 00:31:06.969 That's the way this gets looked at by a lot of people 1408 00:31:07.150 --> 00:31:08.449 in the general population. 1409 00:31:08.910 --> 00:31:10.170 And I understand that. 1410 00:31:10.229 --> 00:31:12.010 I understand the emotions behind it. 1411 00:31:12.290 --> 00:31:12.630 Of course, 1412 00:31:12.750 --> 00:31:13.660 what you have to get, 1413 00:31:13.719 --> 00:31:13.760 if, 1414 00:31:13.910 --> 00:31:14.229 and if, 1415 00:31:14.469 --> 00:31:14.630 you know, 1416 00:31:14.709 --> 00:31:16.609 if you know people who are thinking this way, 1417 00:31:17.270 --> 00:31:19.910 trying to understand and trying to help them understand this is, 1418 00:31:19.949 --> 00:31:20.530 is key, 1419 00:31:21.030 --> 00:31:21.260 uh, 1420 00:31:21.270 --> 00:31:23.910 to prediction markets having more utility than it might just 1421 00:31:23.910 --> 00:31:26.790 have to us and to people who are political obsessives. 1422 00:31:27.489 --> 00:31:27.709 Uh, 1423 00:31:28.030 --> 00:31:28.650 because 1424 00:31:29.069 --> 00:31:29.410 what 1425 00:31:29.550 --> 00:31:31.390 they're not telling you Bolsonaro was going to win. 1426 00:31:31.469 --> 00:31:31.790 They told, 1427 00:31:31.880 --> 00:31:33.849 they were telling you Bolsonaro had a good chance to win. 1428 00:31:34.069 --> 00:31:34.219 Um, 1429 00:31:34.270 --> 00:31:34.859 do we have the, 1430 00:31:34.989 --> 00:31:37.189 the market here by any chance on this Bolsonaro election? 1431 00:31:37.229 --> 00:31:37.930 You see here, 1432 00:31:38.479 --> 00:31:38.709 uh, 1433 00:31:38.910 --> 00:31:40.430 Bolsonaro was the underdog, 1434 00:31:40.670 --> 00:31:40.790 uh, 1435 00:31:40.910 --> 00:31:41.770 then kind of, 1436 00:31:41.819 --> 00:31:42.329 uh, 1437 00:31:42.390 --> 00:31:43.619 went to about a 50/50 race, 1438 00:31:43.670 --> 00:31:45.660 was the underdog again going into the first round, 1439 00:31:45.910 --> 00:31:48.329 then became the favorite going into the second round. 1440 00:31:48.989 --> 00:31:50.030 And if you see the end of this, 1441 00:31:50.150 --> 00:31:52.250 there's two basically straight up and down lines 1442 00:31:52.709 --> 00:31:53.790 because they flip-flopped.

1443 00:31:53.910 --> 00:31:55.030 Go back and give me like a, 1444 00:31:55.150 --> 00:31:55.239 a, 1445 00:31:55.310 --> 00:31:56.770 a month here on this chart. 1446 00:31:57.550 --> 00:31:58.709 And I'm gonna get a better view of it. 1447 00:31:59.199 --> 00:32:04.369 Bolsonaro was about a 75% favorite going into election day and wound up losing, 1448 00:32:04.439 --> 00:32:05.060 at least 1449 00:32:05.319 --> 00:32:06.579 according to the final count. 1450 00:32:06.959 --> 00:32:07.949 Lula won, 1451 00:32:08.500 --> 00:32:10.380 as only a 25% chance of winning. 1452 00:32:10.800 --> 00:32:11.280 What you, 1453 00:32:11.439 --> 00:32:11.640 you know, 1454 00:32:11.880 --> 00:32:11.959 what, 1455 00:32:12.079 --> 00:32:13.459 what is hard for people to understand, 1456 00:32:13.479 --> 00:32:15.069 cause I think a lot of times they look at this and they think, 1457 00:32:15.160 --> 00:32:15.239 0, 1458 00:32:15.280 --> 00:32:16.069 75%, 1459 00:32:16.280 --> 00:32:19.819 a a person who's 75% uh 75% 1460 00:32:19.949 --> 00:32:21.099 in a polling average 1461 00:32:21.439 --> 00:32:22.040 is a very, 1462 00:32:22.150 --> 00:32:22.439 very high, 1463 00:32:22.520 --> 00:32:24.619 like a almost 100% chance to win. 1464 00:32:25.150 --> 00:32:26.839 If you're 75% in a polling average, 1465 00:32:26.920 --> 00:32:28.890 that's different than 75% on a prediction market. 1466 00:32:28.979 --> 00:32:30.099 A prediction market is telling you 1467 00:32:30.439 --> 00:32:32.829 that 1 out of every 4 times this election occurs, 1468 00:32:33.079 --> 00:32:35.079 you should expect Lula to win it. 1469 00:32:36.569 --> 00:32:37.170 3 out of 4, 1470 00:32:37.209 --> 00:32:37.829 you should expect 1471 00:32:38.369 --> 00:32:39.619 Bolsonaro to win it. 1472 00:32:40.050 --> 00:32:41.689 This was one of those indications, 1473 00:32:42.050 --> 00:32:43.810 or one of those chances where um 1474 00:32:43.910 --> 00:32:45.209 uh the opposite happened, 1475 00:32:45.290 --> 00:32:46.890 where the underdog wins. 1476 00:32:46.969 --> 00:32:49.189 The underdog does win sometimes. 1477 00:32:50.979 --> 00:32:51.319 And, 1478 00:32:51.369 --> 00:32:51.500 you know, 1479 00:32:51.619 --> 00:32:53.959 when you think about prediction markets in a way. 1480 00:32:54.739 --> 00:32:55.280 They're not, 1481 00:32:55.500 --> 00:32:58.319 the information they're giving you aren't really predictions. 1482 00:32:58.619 --> 00:33:00.380 If like if you are on a prediction market, 1483 00:33:00.449 --> 00:33:01.199 if you're trading, 1484 00:33:01.739 --> 00:33:03.859 you are doing your best to predict the outcome. 1485 00:33:03.989 --> 00:33:05.579 That is your role in the process. 1486 00:33:05.699 --> 00:33:06.369 So in that way, 1487 00:33:06.489 --> 00:33:08.349 prediction markets are about predicting things. 1488 00:33:09.140 --> 00:33:11.530 When it comes to the output of a prediction market, 1489 00:33:11.829 --> 00:33:15.369 when at the end of the Fed day it says 70% favorite for someone like Bolsonaro, 1490 00:33:15.869 --> 00:33:17.569 what it is doing there is less 1491 00:33:18.109 --> 00:33:18.750 predicting. 1492 00:33:20.020 --> 00:33:22.040 and more of crystallizing 1493 00:33:22.660 --> 00:33:25.099 all of human knowledge into one number. 1494 00:33:26.400 --> 00:33:28.079 All the things that we think we know. 1495 00:33:28.199 --> 00:33:30.020 We could be wrong about some of those things. 1496 00:33:30.439 --> 00:33:31.709 That's why prediction markets, 1497 00:33:31.719 --> 00:33:32.500 markets aren't perfect, 1498 00:33:32.560 --> 00:33:33.040 and by the way, 1499 00:33:33.199 --> 00:33:34.319 here at Predictable with Stew, 1500 00:33:34.599 --> 00:33:35.859 we are happy they aren't perfect, 1501 00:33:35.880 --> 00:33:36.670 because if they were perfect, 1502 00:33:36.719 --> 00:33:38.219 it would be very difficult to make any money. 1503 00:33:38.550 --> 00:33:38.719 Um, 1504 00:33:38.760 --> 00:33:41.000 we look for the imperfections and try to take advantage of those. 1505 00:33:41.079 --> 00:33:42.380 That's what we do here all the time. 1506 00:33:42.750 --> 00:33:44.260 And there are some imperfections. 1507 00:33:44.270 --> 00:33:47.030 You can always find value in individual markets, 1508 00:33:47.099 --> 00:33:47.609 but what 1509 00:33:47.829 --> 00:33:49.609 prediction markets do really well, 1510 00:33:49.869 --> 00:33:50.290 is 1511 00:33:50.390 --> 00:33:51.650 if they tell you 1512 00:33:51.790 --> 00:33:52.930 a 70%, 1513 00:33:53.310 --> 00:33:55.530 there's a 70% chance of something happening, 1514 00:33:55.869 --> 00:33:56.589 over time, 1515 00:33:56.670 --> 00:33:57.609 what you'll see is, 1516 00:33:57.790 --> 00:34:00.380 there's a 70% chance of that thing happening. 1517 00:34:00.589 --> 00:34:01.829 We've told you multiple stories, 1518 00:34:01.900 --> 00:34:04.310 we should do multiple uh studies of this over time. 1519 00:34:04.380 --> 00:34:05.930 There's a new one out right now. 1520 00:34:07.079 --> 00:34:07.199 Uh, 1521 00:34:07.270 --> 00:34:07.839 calibration, 1522 00:34:07.920 --> 00:34:08.429 accuracy, 1523 00:34:08.438 --> 00:34:11.620 and domain variation across 1 million collective forecasts 1524 00:34:11.918 --> 00:34:12.760 from prediction 1525 00:34:12.958 --> 00:34:13.590 platforms. 1526 00:34:13.879 --> 00:34:14.188 Now, 1527 00:34:14.399 --> 00:34:17.830 I'm not gonna go through all the details of the study because I have a show to do and, 1528 00:34:17.840 --> 00:34:18.070 uh, 1529 00:34:18.080 --> 00:34:19.958 I don't want everyone to tune out. 1530 00:34:20.280 --> 00:34:20.438 OK, 1531 00:34:20.520 --> 00:34:20.629 I, 1532 00:34:20.679 --> 00:34:20.830 I, 1533 00:34:20.879 --> 00:34:21.179 I, 1534 00:34:21.360 --> 00:34:24.260 reading academic studies on the air is not exactly 1535 00:34:24.438 --> 00:34:25.899 the highest rating potential. 1536 00:34:26.120 --> 00:34:27.179 But what I will tell you is, 1537 00:34:27.478 --> 00:34:28.478 ideally,

1538 00:34:29.139 --> 00:34:30.399 This study would show you 1539 00:34:30.938 --> 00:34:34.438 a bunch of lines that go from the bottom left-hand corner of your screen 1540 00:34:34.780 --> 00:34:35.418 to the bottom, 1541 00:34:35.500 --> 00:34:37.199 or to the top right-hand corner of your screen. 1542 00:34:37.458 --> 00:34:38.360 There's a straight line, 1543 00:34:38.370 --> 00:34:41.409 and you hope that those predictions match that line. 1544 00:34:41.620 --> 00:34:43.780 Let me show you the results over all of these categories. 1545 00:34:43.860 --> 00:34:46.320 This is what they came up with over a million different contracts. 1546 00:34:46.540 --> 00:34:49.250 And what you see here for those listening on podcasts 1547 00:34:49.550 --> 00:34:50.389 are Lines 1548 00:34:50.530 --> 00:34:53.389 that go from the bottom left-hand corner of the box, 1549 00:34:53.810 --> 00:34:56.280 all the way up to the top right-hand corner of the box. 1550 00:34:56.688 --> 00:34:56.899 That, 1551 00:34:56.929 --> 00:34:57.159 uh, 1552 00:34:57.169 --> 00:34:58.949 typical straight line up, 1553 00:34:59.209 --> 00:34:59.439 uh, 1554 00:34:59.449 --> 00:35:01.169 to up and to the right is exactly what you 1555 00:35:01.169 --> 00:35:03.649 want and what you get in almost every category. 1556 00:35:03.729 --> 00:35:03.840 Now, 1557 00:35:03.879 --> 00:35:05.459 there are blips here. 1558 00:35:05.719 --> 00:35:07.489 A couple of the blips you might notice 1559 00:35:07.850 --> 00:35:08.300 are, 1560 00:35:08.330 --> 00:35:08.760 um, 1561 00:35:08.770 --> 00:35:10.409 in geopolitics. 1562 00:35:10.679 --> 00:35:11.540 A little bit, 1563 00:35:11.800 --> 00:35:12.080 um, 1564 00:35:12.320 --> 00:35:13.439 military conflicts, 1565 00:35:13.760 --> 00:35:14.969 notably unpredictable. 1566 00:35:15.199 --> 00:35:15.540 Uh, 1567 00:35:15.550 --> 00:35:15.659 uh, 1568 00:35:15.719 --> 00:35:17.120 there's a little bit of a bias. 1569 00:35:17.360 --> 00:35:17.909 Elections, 1570 00:35:17.919 --> 00:35:20.919 a tad when you go out over a long period of time. 1571 00:35:21.429 --> 00:35:23.320 Technology sometimes difficult to predict, 1572 00:35:23.520 --> 00:35:23.929 but I mean, 1573 00:35:24.010 --> 00:35:24.570 these things are, 1574 00:35:24.679 --> 00:35:24.879 what I'm, 1575 00:35:24.959 --> 00:35:25.840 what I'm saying they're difficult. 1576 00:35:25.879 --> 00:35:26.340 It's like 1577 00:35:26.780 --> 00:35:28.149 instead of being 100% accurate, 1578 00:35:28.169 --> 00:35:31.159 it's like 98% or 95% or 90% accurate. 1579 00:35:31.540 --> 00:35:32.100 You see, 1580 00:35:32.179 --> 00:35:35.340 there is very little variation from this line showing, 1581 00:35:35.659 --> 00:35:36.399 once again, 1582 00:35:36.620 --> 00:35:36.770 you know, 1583 00:35:36.830 --> 00:35:38.060 this is not the 1st study that showed this, 1584 00:35:38.100 --> 00:35:40.719 this is like the 5th or 6th that we featured on this show, 1585 00:35:41.139 --> 00:35:42.899 that when you use prediction markets, 1586 00:35:42.939 --> 00:35:45.320 they are the greatest tool we have to understand 1587 00:35:45.699 --> 00:35:46.149 the world. 1588 00:35:46.989 --> 00:35:47.350 That is, 1589 00:35:47.439 --> 00:35:47.969 that's it 1590 00:35:48.699 --> 00:35:50.439 That's one of the reasons why I do this show. 1591 00:35:50.860 --> 00:35:50.979 Yes, 1592 00:35:51.060 --> 00:35:52.580 I do it also to make money 1593 00:35:52.860 --> 00:35:53.479 because I like, 1594 00:35:53.500 --> 00:35:53.649 uh, 1595 00:35:53.659 --> 00:35:54.500 being in prediction markets. 1596 00:35:54.540 --> 00:35:55.090 And again, 1597 00:35:55.260 --> 00:35:56.850 if prediction markets were just gambling, 1598 00:35:56.899 --> 00:35:59.959 I can tell you I wouldn't have be up in every single year, 1599 00:36:00.419 --> 00:36:00.560 uh, 1600 00:36:00.570 --> 00:36:03.439 that I've been in prediction markets since I started over a decade ago. 1601 00:36:03.659 --> 00:36:03.739 Uh, 1602 00:36:03.780 --> 00:36:04.020 it's, 1603 00:36:04.060 --> 00:36:04.919 it wouldn't be, 1604 00:36:05.139 --> 00:36:05.189 uh, 1605 00:36:05.260 --> 00:36:06.979 you can't replicate that unless you're some, 1606 00:36:07.060 --> 00:36:07.260 you know, 1607 00:36:07.409 --> 00:36:07.860 genius, 1608 00:36:07.939 --> 00:36:08.260 uh, 1609 00:36:08.340 --> 00:36:08.500 you know, 1610 00:36:08.699 --> 00:36:09.300 professional gambler, 1611 00:36:09.379 --> 00:36:10.360 maybe some of them can. 1612 00:36:10.580 --> 00:36:11.169 I can't. 1613 00:36:11.370 --> 00:36:12.530 All I know is when I gamble, 1614 00:36:12.580 --> 00:36:13.360 I lose, 1615 00:36:13.689 --> 00:36:13.820 uh, 1616 00:36:13.899 --> 00:36:14.419 when I, 1617 00:36:14.500 --> 00:36:15.500 I'm on prediction markets, 1618 00:36:15.659 --> 00:36:16.540 I typically win. 1619 00:36:16.739 --> 00:36:17.379 Not every time. 1620 00:36:17.790 --> 00:36:19.169 But over a long period of time, 1621 00:36:19.199 --> 00:36:20.199 and that's what you should look at when 1622 00:36:20.199 --> 00:36:21.600 you're looking at the accuracy of these markets. 1623 00:36:21.719 --> 00:36:21.979 So, 1624 00:36:22.120 --> 00:36:24.340 when you think you're smart and you go on Twitter 1625 00:36:24.469 --> 00:36:24.840 and you say, 1626 00:36:24.919 --> 00:36:25.360 oh gosh, 1627 00:36:25.479 --> 00:36:25.629 well, 1628 00:36:25.699 --> 00:36:27.100 look at this one election 1629 00:36:27.479 --> 00:36:27.739 where 1630 00:36:28.219 --> 00:36:30.000 a 70% favorite lost, 1631 00:36:30.120 --> 00:36:32.239 I'm really smart for telling you that 1632 00:36:32.250 --> 00:36:34.560 prediction markets have no predictive ability. 1633 00:36:35.250 --> 00:36:37.929 Perhaps it would be notable for you to go back 1634 00:36:37.929 --> 00:36:39.709 and look at the academic studies that have been done 1635 00:36:39.850 --> 00:36:40.629 to show 1636 00:36:40.770 --> 00:36:41.929 that what they say, 1637 00:36:42.090 --> 00:36:43.239 a 70% favorite,

1638 00:36:43.449 --> 00:36:45.139 should win about 70% of the time, 1639 00:36:45.260 --> 00:36:47.629 has been shown true over every category, 1640 00:36:47.689 --> 00:36:50.790 over very long extended periods of time, 1641 00:36:50.929 --> 00:36:52.969 and millions of different contracts. 1642 00:36:53.669 --> 00:36:53.909 Yes, 1643 00:36:53.989 --> 00:36:55.489 you can point at one thing 1644 00:36:55.870 --> 00:36:57.020 where a favorite lost, 1645 00:36:57.149 --> 00:37:00.649 and you can think you're really smart and get your retweets and get your likes 1646 00:37:01.260 --> 00:37:03.969 from people who hate prediction markets for God knows what reason. 1647 00:37:04.610 --> 00:37:05.449 But at the end of the day, 1648 00:37:05.550 --> 00:37:08.270 what this is doing is making your information diet 1649 00:37:08.489 --> 00:37:09.139 better. 1650 00:37:09.370 --> 00:37:10.949 It's making you understand the world 1651 00:37:11.209 --> 00:37:12.120 more accurately. 1652 00:37:12.270 --> 00:37:14.250 It is cutting through media nonsense, 1653 00:37:14.449 --> 00:37:15.610 partisan nonsense, 1654 00:37:15.919 --> 00:37:18.189 all of these things that have been the enemy 1655 00:37:18.729 --> 00:37:20.439 of the information diet of the average. 1656 00:37:20.604 --> 00:37:21.014 Citizen. 1657 00:37:21.235 --> 00:37:23.104 It is cutting through all of that. 1658 00:37:23.405 --> 00:37:25.324 And if you're not in markets at all, 1659 00:37:25.405 --> 00:37:26.635 if you're just looking at this, 1660 00:37:26.935 --> 00:37:29.405 because you're just gonna go to Calsci and you're gonna click on the thing and say, 1661 00:37:29.485 --> 00:37:29.764 oh wow, 1662 00:37:29.804 --> 00:37:31.324 this person has an 85% chance to win. 1663 00:37:31.445 --> 00:37:32.584 You're just taking in the information. 1664 00:37:32.725 --> 00:37:33.185 It's doing 1665 00:37:33.405 --> 00:37:34.465 all of that for you 1666 00:37:34.625 --> 00:37:35.665 with all the work 1667 00:37:35.804 --> 00:37:36.504 for free. 1668 00:37:37.310 --> 00:37:38.909 And zero effort on your part. 1669 00:37:40.409 --> 00:37:43.169 How is this seen as anything but an incredible positive, 1670 00:37:43.570 --> 00:37:46.429 especially when the results are so crystal clear 1671 00:37:46.530 --> 00:37:47.770 over a long period of time. 1672 00:37:48.000 --> 00:37:49.580 Prediction markets are doing things 1673 00:37:49.929 --> 00:37:51.250 that have been the desire, 1674 00:37:51.600 --> 00:37:55.429 especially of those who feel left out of the mainstream media 1675 00:37:55.810 --> 00:37:57.120 talking points of the day, 1676 00:37:57.610 --> 00:37:58.149 who feel, 1677 00:37:58.290 --> 00:37:58.669 uh, 1678 00:37:58.889 --> 00:37:59.239 uh, 1679 00:37:59.250 --> 00:38:00.429 that they don't get 1680 00:38:00.570 --> 00:38:02.270 the most clear and accurate information. 1681 00:38:02.649 --> 00:38:03.969 If your desire is that, 1682 00:38:04.050 --> 00:38:05.949 and I've been working in that

field my entire life. 1683 00:38:06.560 --> 00:38:09.979 Your desire is to take information and actually get accurate information 1684 00:38:10.199 --> 00:38:10.719 to the people, 1685 00:38:10.919 --> 00:38:12.459 fair information to the people. 1686 00:38:12.800 --> 00:38:13.659 Nothing does it better 1687 00:38:14.020 --> 00:38:15.020 than prediction markets. 1688 00:38:15.320 --> 00:38:15.840 Back in a second. 1689 00:38:31.139 --> 00:38:32.250 Time for candidate countdown. 1690 00:38:32.350 --> 00:38:35.540 We are showing you a candidate a day to that could be um, 1691 00:38:35.770 --> 00:38:37.580 have some value for you on prediction markets, 1692 00:38:37.590 --> 00:38:40.850 and then we want to feature today's candidate countdown with 8 days remaining until 1693 00:38:41.110 --> 00:38:42.050 the midterms 1694 00:38:42.590 --> 00:38:44.699 is actually a group of candidates, 1695 00:38:44.909 --> 00:38:45.790 the Socialists. 1696 00:38:45.939 --> 00:38:46.189 Yes, 1697 00:38:46.310 --> 00:38:48.270 the Socialists are our candidates of the day. 1698 00:38:48.350 --> 00:38:49.750 Now that doesn't mean we want to pick the, 1699 00:38:49.870 --> 00:38:49.989 you know, 1700 00:38:50.110 --> 00:38:50.469 socialists, 1701 00:38:50.510 --> 00:38:50.790 but 1702 00:38:50.949 --> 00:38:52.770 I wanted to break this down for you largely because 1703 00:38:52.989 --> 00:38:54.530 the New York Times kind of set a 1704 00:38:54.939 --> 00:38:55.429 Um, 1705 00:38:55.550 --> 00:38:55.830 uh, 1706 00:38:55.909 --> 00:38:56.929 a marking point here, 1707 00:38:56.979 --> 00:38:58.750 and I wanted to kind of note it because 1708 00:38:58.750 --> 00:39:01.060 we're gonna have a lot of conversation after this election 1709 00:39:01.350 --> 00:39:02.889 whether socialist candidates 1710 00:39:03.149 --> 00:39:06.300 can win and whether America just absolutely hearts socialism. 1711 00:39:06.580 --> 00:39:08.500 Certainly you will get that from a lot of sources. 1712 00:39:08.989 --> 00:39:11.429 These are the candidates that they put out there in this article, 1713 00:39:11.510 --> 00:39:15.209 the 11 midterm races that could shape the progressive movement's future, 1714 00:39:15.790 --> 00:39:17.870 and many of them are either they're either 1715 00:39:17.870 --> 00:39:21.209 admitted democratic socialists or they just basically are 1716 00:39:21.389 --> 00:39:22.330 and just won't admit it, 1717 00:39:22.429 --> 00:39:23.030 one of the two. 1718 00:39:23.419 --> 00:39:23.649 Um, 1719 00:39:23.739 --> 00:39:25.659 and they feature these 11 candidates. 1720 00:39:25.739 --> 00:39:26.189 I want to go through, 1721 00:39:26.219 --> 00:39:26.459 this is, 1722 00:39:26.580 --> 00:39:26.879 these are, 1723 00:39:26.939 --> 00:39:27.070 uh, 1724 00:39:27.120 --> 00:39:28.959 the Calci percentages for these candidates. 1725 00:39:29.179 --> 00:39:31.199 El Sayed is a 66% favorite. 1726 00:39:31.739 --> 00:39:32.699 Flanagan in, 1727 00:39:32.780 --> 00:39:33.159 uh,

1728 00:39:33.189 --> 00:39:33.199 Miss, 1729 00:39:33.649 --> 00:39:33.729 uh, 1730 00:39:33.780 --> 00:39:34.100 excuse me, 1731 00:39:34.179 --> 00:39:34.919 Minnesota 1732 00:39:35.179 --> 00:39:37.169 for the Senate is an 83% favorite. 1733 00:39:37.580 --> 00:39:37.739 Uh, 1734 00:39:37.939 --> 00:39:38.419 Nixon, 1735 00:39:38.530 --> 00:39:41.959 Angela Nixon in Florida is only 14% chance to win, 1736 00:39:42.250 --> 00:39:43.649 the biggest underdog on this board, 1737 00:39:43.929 --> 00:39:44.010 uh, 1738 00:39:44.020 --> 00:39:47.020 59% chance for Jackson to win in Maine. 1739 00:39:47.419 --> 00:39:47.790 Um, 1740 00:39:47.870 --> 00:39:49.179 a little rise there for, 1741 00:39:49.229 --> 00:39:49.739 um, 1742 00:39:49.909 --> 00:39:50.300 uh, 1743 00:39:50.449 --> 00:39:51.209 Susan Collins. 1744 00:39:51.459 --> 00:39:51.669 Uh, 1745 00:39:51.899 --> 00:39:53.510 Velejas in California, 1746 00:39:53.540 --> 00:39:56.070 22 is at 91% chance to, 1747 00:39:56.179 --> 00:39:56.629 to win. 1748 00:39:57.040 --> 00:40:00.750 Rutanel in Colorado 8th is the 85% favorite. 1749 00:40:01.110 --> 00:40:01.479 Lawrence, 1750 00:40:01.590 --> 00:40:02.889 73% favorite 1751 00:40:03.070 --> 00:40:03.590 in Michigan, 1752 00:40:03.629 --> 00:40:04.250 7. 1753 00:40:04.669 --> 00:40:05.310 Pearson, 1754 00:40:05.850 --> 00:40:06.909 who just got some awesome hair, 1755 00:40:06.989 --> 00:40:07.909 I gotta say right now. 1756 00:40:07.969 --> 00:40:08.110 I mean, 1757 00:40:08.189 --> 00:40:09.330 I would vote for him just for the hair, 1758 00:40:09.540 --> 00:40:11.570 a 19% favorite to win in Tennessee, 1759 00:40:11.669 --> 00:40:12.280 9. 1760 00:40:13.110 --> 00:40:13.629 Dunlap, 1761 00:40:13.790 --> 00:40:14.590 45%, 1762 00:40:14.659 --> 00:40:15.469 also great hair. 1763 00:40:15.969 --> 00:40:16.169 Uh, 1764 00:40:16.209 --> 00:40:16.729 for Dunlap, 1765 00:40:16.810 --> 00:40:17.270 look at that. 1766 00:40:17.449 --> 00:40:18.149 That's really nice. 1767 00:40:18.530 --> 00:40:18.689 Uh, 1768 00:40:18.760 --> 00:40:20.129 45% favorite in Maine, 1769 00:40:20.770 --> 00:40:21.050 too, 1770 00:40:21.290 --> 00:40:21.889 but he's bald, 1771 00:40:21.929 --> 00:40:22.169 by the way, 1772 00:40:22.250 --> 00:40:23.320 for those listening on podcast. 1773 00:40:23.610 --> 00:40:23.899 Um, 1774 00:40:24.090 --> 00:40:24.169 uh, 1775 00:40:24.250 --> 00:40:24.889 for stag, 1776 00:40:25.010 --> 00:40:25.870 uh, 1777 00:40:25.929 --> 00:40:26.389 Montana, 1778 00:40:26.520 --> 00:40:27.000 First District, 1779 00:40:27.010 --> 00:40:28.050 44% favorite, 1780 00:40:28.060 --> 00:40:29.370 and Brooks in Pennsylvania 7th, 1781 00:40:29.429 --> 00:40:30.449 and 88% favorite. 1782 00:40:30.610 --> 00:40:31.969 You see this kind of all over the board, 1783 00:40:32.169 --> 00:40:34.429 a couple of real long shots and Nixon and Pearson, 1784 00:40:34.929 --> 00:40:36.570 but this will be an interesting way to look back. 1785 00:40:37.000 --> 00:40:37.310 At, 1786 00:40:37.489 --> 00:40:38.020 uh, 1787 00:40:38.250 --> 00:40:40.459 whether progressivism had a big night or not. 1788 00:40:40.770 --> 00:40:42.600 If you're getting a lot of these people who are in, 1789 00:40:42.719 --> 00:40:42.800 you know, 1790 00:40:42.850 --> 00:40:45.129 if you're getting 19 and 14% favorites to win, 1791 00:40:45.169 --> 00:40:46.449 it's a big night for progressivism. 1792 00:40:46.729 --> 00:40:50.050 If they're only winning the races and maybe they lose an 85% favorite, 1793 00:40:50.409 --> 00:40:52.080 maybe the opposite story should be told. 1794 00:40:52.330 --> 00:40:53.729 It's going to be a very interesting thing. 1795 00:40:53.770 --> 00:40:55.810 I will say looking at this as far as value goes. 1796 00:40:57.510 --> 00:40:59.449 Both Minnesota and Oregon are just, 1797 00:40:59.610 --> 00:41:00.850 they're so tempting to me. 1798 00:41:01.020 --> 00:41:01.129 Uh, 1799 00:41:01.250 --> 00:41:01.929 they're so tempting. 1800 00:41:01.949 --> 00:41:03.209 In a blue year, 1801 00:41:03.399 --> 00:41:05.469 it's just so hard to believe 1802 00:41:05.810 --> 00:41:06.149 that 1803 00:41:06.439 --> 00:41:10.030 voters in Minnesota and Oregon would pick the Republican. 1804 00:41:10.399 --> 00:41:10.530 Again, 1805 00:41:10.610 --> 00:41:12.570 like Peggy Flanagan is at 83%. 1806 00:41:12.649 --> 00:41:14.189 That's a nice profit for a week. 1807 00:41:14.610 --> 00:41:16.520 You're talking about basically 20% profit, 1808 00:41:16.770 --> 00:41:16.959 uh, 1809 00:41:16.969 --> 00:41:17.830 in a week 1810 00:41:18.040 --> 00:41:20.409 if you were to go that direction with Flanagan. 1811 00:41:20.899 --> 00:41:21.739 But you look at Flanagan, 1812 00:41:21.860 --> 00:41:22.889 she's just an oddball, 1813 00:41:22.939 --> 00:41:23.100 man, 1814 00:41:23.219 --> 00:41:24.800 like she dresses like a weirdo, 1815 00:41:24.860 --> 00:41:25.280 uh, 1816 00:41:25.500 --> 00:41:25.989 I know, 1817 00:41:26.260 --> 00:41:26.449 I, 1818 00:41:26.659 --> 00:41:27.580 and then Michelle Tafoya, 1819 00:41:28.090 --> 00:41:28.290 who's, 1820 00:41:28.330 --> 00:41:28.500 you know, 1821 00:41:28.699 --> 00:41:28.820 again, 1822 00:41:28.899 --> 00:41:29.419 it's unfair, 1823 00:41:29.540 --> 00:41:31.889 she's been a television personality for a long time. 1824 00:41:32.100 --> 00:41:33.500 She comes off as very normal, 1825 00:41:33.679 --> 00:41:34.600 very relatable. 1826 00:41:35.010 --> 00:41:38.010 But can a Republican win in Minnesota in this climate? 1827 00:41:38.290 --> 00:41:39.489 Same thing happening over in, 1828 00:41:39.530 --> 00:41:40.270 uh, 1829 00:41:40.330 --> 00:41:40.530 you know, 1830 00:41:40.679 --> 00:41:41.530 a little bit different dynamic, 1831 00:41:41.570 --> 00:41:43.090 with the Oregon governor's race, 1832 00:41:43.129 --> 00:41:45.010 which is one of my bigger positions, 1833 00:41:45.350 --> 00:41:45.530 uh, 1834 00:41:45.610 --> 00:41:47.409 on Tina Kottek to win there,

1835 00:41:47.489 --> 00:41:48.689 but the polling has been very, 1836 00:41:48.800 --> 00:41:49.350 very close 1837 00:41:49.850 --> 00:41:51.189 for someone who's in that position, 1838 00:41:51.250 --> 00:41:51.649 I will say, 1839 00:41:51.689 --> 00:41:51.810 so. 1840 00:41:52.185 --> 00:41:53.014 That's where we stand right now. 1841 00:41:53.054 --> 00:41:54.614 Our candidates today is 11 different people. 1842 00:41:54.675 --> 00:41:56.034 We're gonna keep track of these people 1843 00:41:56.135 --> 00:41:56.334 and, 1844 00:41:56.375 --> 00:41:58.155 and revisit this after the election, 1845 00:41:58.534 --> 00:41:58.665 uh, 1846 00:41:58.695 --> 00:41:58.965 to say, 1847 00:41:59.054 --> 00:41:59.175 hey, 1848 00:41:59.254 --> 00:42:02.435 how did the Socialists actually do by their own standards they set 1849 00:42:02.975 --> 00:42:03.514 beforehand 1850 00:42:03.935 --> 00:42:04.735 rather than the, 1851 00:42:04.814 --> 00:42:04.975 you know, 1852 00:42:05.054 --> 00:42:06.435 the spin room afterward. 1853 00:42:06.695 --> 00:42:08.135 So we'll follow that closely as well. 1854 00:42:08.254 --> 00:42:08.834 Back in a second. 1855 00:42:18.070 --> 00:42:22.270 I have over 350 positions on prediction markets, 1856 00:42:22.810 --> 00:42:24.540 the majority of them probably about 1857 00:42:24.699 --> 00:42:26.280 the election that's gonna end up in a week. 1858 00:42:26.350 --> 00:42:27.020 And then I'm gonna have a lot, 1859 00:42:27.070 --> 00:42:27.409 uh, 1860 00:42:27.540 --> 00:42:29.350 a much lighter diet. 1861 00:42:29.750 --> 00:42:30.060 Of the, 1862 00:42:30.070 --> 00:42:30.350 uh, 1863 00:42:30.360 --> 00:42:30.469 of, 1864 00:42:30.570 --> 00:42:31.229 of physicians, 1865 00:42:31.310 --> 00:42:33.729 but all of them are up on PredictableShow.com. 1866 00:42:33.830 --> 00:42:34.530 If you wanna go there, 1867 00:42:34.909 --> 00:42:34.989 uh, 1868 00:42:35.070 --> 00:42:36.070 you'd be a premium subscriber. 1869 00:42:36.110 --> 00:42:38.189 You can see all of my picks when I make them. 1870 00:42:38.429 --> 00:42:38.540 Uh, 1871 00:42:38.590 --> 00:42:40.830 you get a nice advance of that before we really ever, 1872 00:42:40.949 --> 00:42:42.889 most of the time even talk about them on the air. 1873 00:42:43.229 --> 00:42:43.310 Uh, 1874 00:42:43.389 --> 00:42:44.750 and if you're someone who trades markets, 1875 00:42:44.790 --> 00:42:46.229 you're gonna find great value, 1876 00:42:46.459 --> 00:42:46.629 uh, 1877 00:42:46.659 --> 00:42:47.649 in this election. 1878 00:42:47.989 --> 00:42:48.110 Look, 1879 00:42:48.189 --> 00:42:49.590 there is money to be made on this election. 1880 00:42:49.709 --> 00:42:50.610 We're gonna make some of it. 1881 00:42:50.889 --> 00:42:51.110 And I, 1882 00:42:51.149 --> 00:42:51.260 I, 1883 00:42:51.350 --> 00:42:52.120 I wanna make sure. 1884 00:42:52.669 --> 00:42:55.330 I wanna try to put ourselves in a position where we're going to be positive, 1885 00:42:55.340 --> 00:42:55.530

uh, 1886 00:42:55.550 --> 00:42:55.929 for, 1887 00:42:55.949 --> 00:42:56.219 uh, 1888 00:42:56.229 --> 00:42:57.070 this election cycle. 1889 00:42:57.149 --> 00:42:57.629 I think we're, 1890 00:42:57.750 --> 00:42:57.870 you know, 1891 00:42:58.209 --> 00:42:58.350 I, 1892 00:42:58.459 --> 00:43:00.530 I did a little analysis of this on my own, 1893 00:43:00.659 --> 00:43:00.929 uh, 1894 00:43:00.939 --> 00:43:01.689 positions 1895 00:43:01.949 --> 00:43:02.729 over the weekend. 1896 00:43:03.010 --> 00:43:04.489 About 70% of, 1897 00:43:04.590 --> 00:43:05.689 of where we are, 1898 00:43:05.699 --> 00:43:06.399 are up right now. 1899 00:43:06.469 --> 00:43:08.870 There's a bunch that are around even from where I bought them. 1900 00:43:09.290 --> 00:43:11.149 Few that are down that make me worried, 1901 00:43:11.389 --> 00:43:11.510 uh, 1902 00:43:11.590 --> 00:43:13.790 but we're gonna look at that and on election night, 1903 00:43:13.870 --> 00:43:15.189 we're gonna have a massive live stream. 1904 00:43:15.350 --> 00:43:18.870 Gonna be hours and hours and hours and hours as long as my voice can hold up. 1905 00:43:19.750 --> 00:43:23.060 And it will be us live trading these markets together, 1906 00:43:23.479 --> 00:43:24.610 talking about these markets, 1907 00:43:24.800 --> 00:43:26.159 analyzing the election results, 1908 00:43:26.280 --> 00:43:27.459 doing all the things 1909 00:43:27.679 --> 00:43:29.510 that I think will bring value to you. 1910 00:43:29.840 --> 00:43:30.070 Um, 1911 00:43:30.120 --> 00:43:32.860 we will have a special pre-show as well for, 1912 00:43:32.879 --> 00:43:33.070 uh, 1913 00:43:33.080 --> 00:43:34.199 premium subscribers only. 1914 00:43:34.280 --> 00:43:36.510 So if you have specific questions about your markets, 1915 00:43:36.790 --> 00:43:38.800 we're gonna try to answer every single one of those. 1916 00:43:39.100 --> 00:43:39.479 So, 1917 00:43:39.600 --> 00:43:40.389 on election day, 1918 00:43:40.600 --> 00:43:41.239 sometime during the day, 1919 00:43:41.300 --> 00:43:42.199 we'll have a pre-show. 1920 00:43:42.560 --> 00:43:45.600 We'll join you right around the time when polls are opening. 1921 00:43:45.929 --> 00:43:46.219 Um, 1922 00:43:46.300 --> 00:43:47.000 for the day, 1923 00:43:47.219 --> 00:43:48.899 and we'll be trading those markets live. 1924 00:43:49.100 --> 00:43:50.739 We're also gonna give you tons of resources and 1925 00:43:50.739 --> 00:43:53.250 there are tons of resources already at predictableShow.com. 1926 00:43:53.300 --> 00:43:54.679 We're in the middle of doing our packet, 1927 00:43:54.929 --> 00:43:55.169 uh, 1928 00:43:55.340 --> 00:43:55.620 for, 1929 00:43:55.699 --> 00:43:56.010 um, 1930 00:43:56.419 --> 00:43:58.500 election night and to kind of get you ready for that. 1931 00:43:59.590 --> 00:44:02.169 When you kind of look at the way 1932 00:44:02.389 --> 00:44:03.610 all of this plays out, 1933 00:44:04.429 --> 00:44:05.429 what you're gonna see, 1934 00:44:05.550 --> 00:44:06.129 I think, 1935 00:44:06.429 --> 00:44:07.409 is um 1936 00:44:07.669 --> 00:44:08.489 a real. 1937 00:44:09.820 --> 00:44:11.969 A collection of tools that I don't think have ever been available anywhere, 1938 00:44:12.020 --> 00:44:12.679 frankly. 1939 00:44:13.219 --> 00:44:14.239 If you want to 1940 00:44:14.439 --> 00:44:14.979 win and, 1941 00:44:15.020 --> 00:44:17.879 and profit on prediction markets when it comes to elections, 1942 00:44:18.300 --> 00:44:20.520 I don't know that there's ever been a better place to go 1943 00:44:20.830 --> 00:44:22.340 than predictableShow.com. 1944 00:44:22.379 --> 00:44:22.939 And I think you'll, 1945 00:44:23.020 --> 00:44:23.209 uh, 1946 00:44:23.370 --> 00:44:24.469 if you go there and you're a member, 1947 00:44:24.540 --> 00:44:25.889 I think you'll understand that 1948 00:44:26.020 --> 00:44:28.500 by the time we get there because there's going to be a ton, 1949 00:44:28.739 --> 00:44:30.840 we already have a ton of tools up there for you to use. 1950 00:44:31.310 --> 00:44:31.510 Uh, 1951 00:44:31.879 --> 00:44:32.600 election models, 1952 00:44:32.840 --> 00:44:34.820 all stuff that's fun like Senate Fantasy, 1953 00:44:35.159 --> 00:44:35.629 all the way to, 1954 00:44:35.760 --> 00:44:36.139 you know, 1955 00:44:36.280 --> 00:44:36.399 uh, 1956 00:44:36.459 --> 00:44:37.270 a million other options. 1957 00:44:37.320 --> 00:44:38.000 So go check it out. 1958 00:44:38.229 --> 00:44:39.229 PredictableShow.com. 1959 00:44:39.280 --> 00:44:42.860 This is a great time to join PredictableShow.com. 1960 00:44:43.110 --> 00:44:44.310 Thank you so much for joining us. 1961 00:44:44.520 --> 00:44:45.159 We'll talk to you tomorrow.