Transkrip penuh untuk How are the 2026 Midterm Elections Shaping Up with Dr. Rachel Bitecofer

say. 74 00:05:02.209 --> 00:05:06.870 Right, of the action, but it's still, it's not like 75 00:05:06.910 --> 00:05:09.970 the case was thrown out. The case is still moving forward, right? 76 00:05:09.990 --> 00:05:13.089 The League of Women Voters suing, and the Supreme Court 77 00:05:13.149 --> 00:05:16.509 did say that they had standing. So, there is a 78 00:05:16.589 --> 00:05:22.139 chance that this could still lose in court again. But 79 00:05:22.959 --> 00:05:24.100 what Trump is trying to. 80 00:05:24.060 --> 00:05:29.560 Do is so confusion and discord, you know, not shocking. 81 00:05:29.620 --> 00:05:30.279 It's what he does. 82 00:05:31.120 --> 00:05:34.889 And Tim's absolutely right. Whether it's for this. 83 00:05:34.870 --> 00:05:39.269 Election or the next election, just creating chaos and. 84 00:05:39.209 --> 00:05:44.089 Concern and more of the oh my goodness, the boogeyman 85 00:05:44.290 --> 00:05:49.069 of people who aren't citizens trying to impact the election 86 00:05:49.089 --> 00:05:52.449 in an inappropriate manner. They're just going to keep stirring 87 00:05:52.490 --> 00:05:57.079 that up. I'm glad that we have provisional ballots here 88 00:05:57.120 --> 00:05:59.459 in Georgia, and I think we're going to need to 89 00:05:59.500 --> 00:06:02.540 do a lot of work to make sure people understand 90 00:06:02.620 --> 00:06:05.699 to demand a provisional ballot if for some reason their. 91 00:06:05.579 --> 00:06:07.689 Registration has been canceled. 92 00:06:08.670 --> 00:06:12.129 So at least that gives us a small window to 93 00:06:12.170 --> 00:06:13.610 fix things if it happens here. 94 00:06:15.250 --> 00:06:18.699 Yeah, I will say this. I'm always for people voting 95 00:06:18.800 --> 00:06:22.459 when it's most convenient. And that means if it's most 96 00:06:22.519 --> 00:06:27.120 convenient for you to vote on Election Day at 6 97 00:06:27.120 --> 00:06:29.720 o'clock in the evening, I think that's not a problem 98 00:06:29.740 --> 00:06:34.699 if that's your plan normally. But if your name could 99 00:06:34.759 --> 00:06:37.480 be one of those places that you think, oh, well, 100 00:06:37.519 --> 00:06:39.439 the Trump administration is going to come after me. Or 101 00:06:39.500 --> 00:06:43.180 maybe you were a naturalized citizen and you became a 102 00:06:43.220 --> 00:06:47.019 citizen a cycle or two ago. And then you think 103 00:06:47.060 --> 00:06:50.389 this could be an issue. That's probably going to be 104 00:06:50.410 --> 00:06:52.790 a situation where you need to make your plan of 105 00:06:52.829 --> 00:06:56.029 going to vote early so you can make sure there 106 00:06:56.370 --> 00:07:00.930 are no issues to where you can get all this 107 00:07:00.990 --> 00:07:03.379 straightened out to make sure your vote counts. Because I 108 00:07:03.420 --> 00:07:06.720 know that Provisional voting is really, really good, but you 109 00:07:07.040 --> 00:07:10.420 would rather get that done early in the cycle

or 110 00:07:10.620 --> 00:07:14.189 then hopefully work it out and get it secured as 111 00:07:14.269 --> 00:07:17.569 opposed to doing it at 630 at night and then 112 00:07:17.670 --> 00:07:22.149 hoping it gets secured afterwards because we're talking about, once again, 113 00:07:22.170 --> 00:07:26.389 a Trump administration justice system and everything else that would 114 00:07:26.980 --> 00:07:32.160 put their hands into the– you know, state election system. 115 00:07:32.180 --> 00:07:33.699 And we have a lot of states that want to 116 00:07:33.740 --> 00:07:37.860 push back from Trump. And it's not just the, you know, 117 00:07:38.379 --> 00:07:41.620 the Democratic states. I mean, Brad Raffensperger, he may be 118 00:07:41.639 --> 00:07:43.660 a Republican. I may disagree on a lot of issues, 119 00:07:43.680 --> 00:07:47.899 but he's been a good champion of letting folks vote 120 00:07:48.019 --> 00:07:51.939 and letting votes count more so than I think a 121 00:07:51.980 --> 00:07:55.459 lot of the Republicans who actually wanted to disqualify him 122 00:07:55.519 --> 00:08:00.920 from even running, you know, for offices. Wendy, I know 123 00:08:00.959 --> 00:08:04.959 you're into a lot of these situations. Does that plan 124 00:08:05.019 --> 00:08:07.160 make sense if people need to vote early because if 125 00:08:07.199 --> 00:08:10.360 they think they're going to be targets of this? 126 00:08:11.350 --> 00:08:14.829 Absolutely. I wish I had thought to say that. That's very, 127 00:08:15.149 --> 00:08:15.790 very well said. 128 00:08:17.209 --> 00:08:17.490 Yeah. 129 00:08:17.850 --> 00:08:18.129 Okay. 130 00:08:18.430 --> 00:08:21.449 And Tim, are there any other issues surrounding this that 131 00:08:21.490 --> 00:08:24.720 I may have missed on the court rulings? 132 00:08:26.209 --> 00:08:28.670 No, basically the court ruling is. 133 00:08:28.910 --> 00:08:34.230 That Trump has the green light to continue setting up 134 00:08:34.509 --> 00:08:39.009 this expansion and setting up this tool in the Department 135 00:08:39.049 --> 00:08:44.519 of Homeland Security to be ready to go do this. 136 00:08:44.620 --> 00:08:48.519 My concern is who's going to tell Trump, well, you 137 00:08:48.580 --> 00:08:51.340 can't do this. I don't think the red states are 138 00:08:51.360 --> 00:08:53.419 going to do that. That's what we've got to watch. 139 00:08:53.809 --> 00:08:59.950 And you're absolutely right about one thing. My advice to voters, 140 00:09:03.179 --> 00:09:06.019 they want to discourage you. They want to make it 141 00:09:06.080 --> 00:09:07.919 hard for you to vote or make you think your 142 00:09:07.960 --> 00:09:12.549 vote don't count or something. My advice to everyone, vote 143 00:09:12.610 --> 00:09:18.220 and vote as quickly as you possibly can. We need 144 00:09:18.259 --> 00:09:22.450 to flood the polls in such large numbers, as Jamie 145 00:09:22.470 --> 00:09:23.629 Raskin has said. 146 00:09:23.649 --> 00:09:26.049 That. 147 00:09:26.529 --> 00:09:31.649 It can't be ignored or contested, just like Hungary, he said. 148 00:09:32.009 --> 00:09:32.850 And he's right. 149 00:09:33.350 --> 00:09:37.269 We've got to go vote, keep the eye on the 150 00:09:37.309 --> 00:09:40.669 prize type of thing. Trump's going to do what he's 151 00:09:40.710 --> 00:09:42.820 going to do or try to do what he's going 152 00:09:42.840 --> 00:09:45.860 to do. What we can do as a response while 153 00:09:46.059 --> 00:09:50.440 others are carrying this stuff to court is go and vote. 154 00:09:50.679 --> 00:09:55.149 I've already singled out the earliest day that I can 155 00:09:55.190 --> 00:09:59.169 go vote in person on early voting up here, and 156 00:09:59.210 --> 00:10:01.700 that's what I'm going to do bright and early that 157 00:10:01.759 --> 00:10:03.679 day and get my vote in the bank. That's what 158 00:10:03.899 --> 00:10:06.500 everyone needs to do all over this country. 159 00:10:07.870 --> 00:10:09.250 Yeah, and it's going to be interesting because a lot 160 00:10:09.289 --> 00:10:13.789 of places like VoteHub, and I know Tom Bonnier, his 161 00:10:13.850 --> 00:10:17.820 firm TargetSmart, they'll do a lot of analysis of on 162 00:10:17.879 --> 00:10:21.120 who's voting early, and that's kind of an indicator of 163 00:10:21.179 --> 00:10:24.840 kind of an early scorecard, if you will, watching to 164 00:10:24.899 --> 00:10:26.980 see how those come in, so we'll kind of keep 165 00:10:27.019 --> 00:10:30.950 track of that moving forward. Well, Trump, you know, he 166 00:10:30.990 --> 00:10:34.549 didn't stop pushing that this week and doing all kinds 167 00:10:34.590 --> 00:10:37.590 of things. I don't even know where to begin, but 168 00:10:37.629 --> 00:10:39.870 I'm going to start with one of the strangest things 169 00:10:40.710 --> 00:10:43.399 I've heard in a while, and that would be Donald 170 00:10:43.440 --> 00:10:48.809 Trump putting a poll together wanting to rename artificial intelligence 171 00:10:48.909 --> 00:10:53.090 because apparently it's not that, you know, the heads of, 172 00:10:53.129 --> 00:10:56.759 you know, Anthropic and other companies are saying that there's 173 00:10:56.799 --> 00:11:01.779 no guardrails and it could really, you know, even push 174 00:11:02.139 --> 00:11:06.519 humanity to extinction, but at least give lots of problems 175 00:11:06.580 --> 00:11:09.320 to humanity and the way it's broken through guardrails and 176 00:11:09.340 --> 00:11:12.110 everything else. He says, it's just a Brandon problem. So 177 00:11:12.139 --> 00:11:17.250 he did a poll. He said, should we call it superintelligence, 178 00:11:17.889 --> 00:11:23.929 supreme intelligence, or extreme intelligence. Now, Wendy, I'm sure you 179 00:11:23.950 --> 00:11:26.210 voted in that poll, and you can start off by 180 00:11:26.730 --> 00:11:31.009 telling us which one you picked. But then after that, 181 00:11:31.129 --> 00:11:33.029 if you want to tell us if

it really is 182 00:11:33.049 --> 00:11:37.129 just a branding problem, or is Trump just not even 183 00:11:37.289 --> 00:11:39.370 understanding this issue in any way? 184 00:11:39.389 --> 00:11:41.039 Well, you know. 185 00:11:41.129 --> 00:11:44.139 Trump is just trying to manipulate it because, again. 186 00:11:45.440 --> 00:11:45.840 He and. 187 00:11:45.799 --> 00:11:53.120 His family have investments in artificial intelligence, right? And he 188 00:11:53.240 --> 00:11:57.899 wants to keep all of his masters. 189 00:11:57.980 --> 00:11:59.960 His economic masters, happy. 190 00:12:00.700 --> 00:12:06.049 And, you know, those fellows funded him significantly. 191 00:12:06.970 --> 00:12:11.429 And it's just distraction, distraction, distraction. 192 00:12:12.059 --> 00:12:12.740 Distraction. 193 00:12:12.899 --> 00:12:17.120 Anything to talk about something other than the chaos he 194 00:12:17.159 --> 00:12:21.860 has created through his policies, the fact that I'm telling y'all, 195 00:12:21.940 --> 00:12:24.960 I was shocked because I keep having to, when I 196 00:12:24.980 --> 00:12:27.250 fill up my car and I've got a, you know, 197 00:12:27.259 --> 00:12:32.889 a small SUV, I'm now going over $ 50 to fill. 198 00:12:32.789 --> 00:12:33.370 Up my car. 199 00:12:33.490 --> 00:12:36.870 And today at the gas station, the person who filled 200 00:12:36.950 --> 00:12:38.269 up before me had to put $ 107 in. 201 00:12:41.139 --> 00:12:43.039 Of gas in their car. 202 00:12:43.039 --> 00:12:45.159 $ 107 on the, I was, I was floored by that. 203 00:12:45.299 --> 00:12:47.830 I don't, I'd have to stop driving and that would 204 00:12:47.850 --> 00:12:48.970 certainly hurt the work I'm. 205 00:12:48.870 --> 00:12:49.669 Doing right now. 206 00:12:50.070 --> 00:12:53.149 So he's just trying to distract and play games. That's 207 00:12:53.169 --> 00:12:53.649 what he does. 208 00:12:53.669 --> 00:12:54.669 Yeah. 209 00:12:54.809 --> 00:12:57.820 But I don't think this is real effective. Tim, I 210 00:12:57.879 --> 00:13:01.320 actually looked it up and I thought, you know, Google 211 00:13:01.600 --> 00:13:05.379 and Apple, they just, every time Trump renames a body 212 00:13:05.419 --> 00:13:08.399 of water, they're just, you know, toe the line and 213 00:13:08.440 --> 00:13:11.720 they change it to you know, Gulf of America, Lake 214 00:13:11.759 --> 00:13:15.659 of America, or Lake America, whatever else it is. And 215 00:13:15.679 --> 00:13:19.179 so I went on, I used Gemini, the Google tool, 216 00:13:19.259 --> 00:13:23.860 and I asked, I said, now, is Google going to 217 00:13:24.419 --> 00:13:29.230 call AI, super artificial intelligence, super intelligence? It said no. 218 00:13:30.120 --> 00:13:32.909 And then I asked about Apple, no. And I'm like, well, 219 00:13:32.929 --> 00:13:34.850 why not? And they're like, well, it doesn't even make 220 00:13:34.889 --> 00:13:39.799 any sense because it is artificial intelligence. if it's super 221 00:13:40.179 --> 00:13:45.200 or extreme or supreme, it means that a sentient being, 222 00:13:45.759 --> 00:13:51.200 mostly a human, actually contains the intelligence. If the intelligence 223 00:13:51.320 --> 00:13:56.399 is in a computer form, it's artificial. And so I 224 00:13:56.440 --> 00:13:58.200 get back to the fact that I just don't think 225 00:13:58.240 --> 00:14:01.059 Donald Trump understands. I know he wants to make money 226 00:14:01.139 --> 00:14:05.159 off of everything he can. He'd run a a punch 227 00:14:05.240 --> 00:14:08.210 board system out of the Oval Office if he thought 228 00:14:08.230 --> 00:14:10.490 he could make a buck. But I don't really think 229 00:14:10.529 --> 00:14:13.830 he understands this issue and this problem, does. 230 00:14:16.370 --> 00:14:16.470 He? 231 00:14:17.509 --> 00:14:21.490 I don't think he understands most issues, David. I'll tell 232 00:14:21.529 --> 00:14:26.129 you what he does understand. He is accustomed when he 233 00:14:26.190 --> 00:14:31.029 makes a pronouncement of everybody getting in line and agreeing 234 00:14:31.100 --> 00:14:31.389 with him. 235 00:14:31.919 --> 00:14:33.220 And I'm going to tell you something. 236 00:14:33.659 --> 00:14:37.519 If he decides to put a little pressure on Google 237 00:14:37.679 --> 00:14:41.350 and some others to change the name of it to 238 00:14:41.419 --> 00:14:45.830 say Supreme Intelligence, well, you know what? That's exactly what 239 00:14:45.909 --> 00:14:50.389 I believe they'll do because they have decided since the 240 00:14:50.429 --> 00:14:53.110 day he walked back into the Oval Office that the 241 00:14:53.169 --> 00:14:58.480 best way to get along was to go along. And 242 00:14:59.299 --> 00:15:03.559 not just them, but a lot of big billionaires and 243 00:15:03.620 --> 00:15:06.620 stuff like that. And that's what most of them are doing. 244 00:15:06.639 --> 00:15:09.159 So I wouldn't be surprised if they changed. 245 00:15:08.840 --> 00:15:09.549 The name of it. 246 00:15:09.970 --> 00:15:13.889 Of course, people need to understand that once him and 247 00:15:13.950 --> 00:15:16.889 his bunch are gone, all these things are going to 248 00:15:16.929 --> 00:15:20.509 go back to the names that they were, whether, you know, 249 00:15:20.590 --> 00:15:27.179 anybody likes it or not. Because, well, you know, because facts, 250 00:15:27.340 --> 00:15:27.759 I guess. 251 00:15:29.120 --> 00:15:33.840 Yeah, it's systemic of a bigger issue. It's not just 252 00:15:33.940 --> 00:15:37.240 the naming in this case. It's that he doesn't understand it. 253 00:15:37.990 --> 00:15:38.549 We'll see. 254 00:15:38.649 --> 00:15:42.470 I mean, I did this check on, I believe, Wednesday morning. 255 00:15:42.950 --> 00:15:45.710 It had not been anything, so I'll keep seeing it. 256 00:15:45.870 --> 00:15:48.919 It's harder to check than obviously looking at Google Maps 257 00:15:48.980 --> 00:15:53.340 or Apple Maps and seeing if they've renamed

Lake Ontario 258 00:15:53.899 --> 00:15:56.879 Lake of America or something like that. Well, let's talk 259 00:15:56.899 --> 00:15:59.899 about something else that happened this week. They had the 260 00:15:59.940 --> 00:16:05.570 big summit with China. The Chairman Yi came over and 261 00:16:05.610 --> 00:16:08.389 met with Donald Trump, and they discussed all kinds of things, 262 00:16:08.470 --> 00:16:12.570 some public, some which we probably don't fully know privately. 263 00:16:12.929 --> 00:16:16.700 But really one of the more shocking out-of-left-field things that 264 00:16:16.759 --> 00:16:20.720 came out of that summit was Donald Trump saying that 265 00:16:20.799 --> 00:16:24.879 he may allow, or I guess technically it is take 266 00:16:24.960 --> 00:16:28.000 off the 100% tariffs. And these are tariffs that Joe 267 00:16:28.019 --> 00:16:31.960 Biden actually signed or renewed or what have you. This 268 00:16:32.019 --> 00:16:36.600 is kind of a more bipartisan tariff on BYD electric cars. 269 00:16:37.059 --> 00:16:39.419 He said he may just take those off, which is 270 00:16:39.500 --> 00:16:46.500 so strange given his made in America message. Wendy, did 271 00:16:46.580 --> 00:16:49.980 you see that pronouncement? And what did you think of that, 272 00:16:50.019 --> 00:16:53.470 that he just casually said that he may allow these 273 00:16:53.570 --> 00:16:58.629 Chinese EVs, which are far cheaper and actually have better 274 00:16:58.710 --> 00:17:00.809 ratings than Tesla and others. 275 00:17:02.409 --> 00:17:06.259 Look, you know, he's always looking for a deal, and 276 00:17:06.559 --> 00:17:09.180 maybe these guys cut him in, are going to let 277 00:17:09.220 --> 00:17:12.180 him or his kids be an investor in their companies, and, 278 00:17:12.819 --> 00:17:18.500 you know, he's just doing them a solid. I can't 279 00:17:19.539 --> 00:17:26.819 figure out why he prefers to have positive relationships with 280 00:17:27.539 --> 00:17:32.609 people and countries that should be our enemies. The war 281 00:17:32.680 --> 00:17:37.410 we're currently in, at his choice, our opponents are being 282 00:17:37.490 --> 00:17:42.829 funded by the Chinese. The Republicans, you might notice lately, 283 00:17:42.890 --> 00:17:45.210 the Republicans have been trying to find a way to 284 00:17:46.180 --> 00:17:52.140 push back against the data center outrage among regular everyday citizens. 285 00:17:52.900 --> 00:17:56.140 And the boogeyman they came up with was China, China, China. 286 00:17:56.980 --> 00:18:00.630 And oops, there they go talking about the evils of 287 00:18:00.730 --> 00:18:04.890 China in terms of can't let them outdo us with 288 00:18:04.910 --> 00:18:05.549 data centers. 289 00:18:05.569 --> 00:18:06.450 We've got to keep up. 290 00:18:07.029 --> 00:18:10.490 And then their boy Trump goes and literally rolls out 291 00:18:10.529 --> 00:18:11.230 the red carpet. 292 00:18:11.329 --> 00:18:16.970 Runs to the plane to meet this dictator. It's just baffling. 293 00:18:18.009 --> 00:18:20.589 And I don't know how they keep up with which. 294 00:18:20.470 --> 00:18:21.009 End is up. 295 00:18:21.769 --> 00:18:27.710 Yeah, the flyover where he winced at the noise. Now, Tim, 296 00:18:27.799 --> 00:18:28.630 I made the comment. 297 00:18:28.730 --> 00:18:29.779 One of our. 298 00:18:29.519 --> 00:18:33.180 Frequent Get Passed guests said something about how this will 299 00:18:33.240 --> 00:18:37.779 hurt American automakers. And I said, honestly, the BYDs, they 300 00:18:37.819 --> 00:18:40.279 may not hurt if you're in the market for a 301 00:18:40.319 --> 00:18:44.579 Dodge Ram or a F-150 or a Silverado. It's not 302 00:18:44.599 --> 00:18:48.089 going to hurt that. It's going to hurt Tesla, Rivian, 303 00:18:48.609 --> 00:18:54.289 and Slate. Slate has heavy investment from Jeff Bezos, and 304 00:18:54.730 --> 00:19:00.250 Tesla is on stock and barrel by Elon Musk. So 305 00:19:00.589 --> 00:19:04.690 wouldn't this be impacting his friends as hard as anybody? 306 00:19:06.150 --> 00:19:12.490 It would be, except there was also talk that Trump 307 00:19:12.630 --> 00:19:17.380 indicated that he would not be opposed to the Chinese 308 00:19:17.690 --> 00:19:23.359 building plants and building those cars over here. Then we're 309 00:19:23.420 --> 00:19:29.099 talking about direct competition on our soil with the big three, 310 00:19:30.160 --> 00:19:36.579 not only to sell vehicles, but for auto workers and such. 311 00:19:37.319 --> 00:19:39.900 Then it would get very different, wouldn't it? 312 00:19:39.880 --> 00:19:44.430 Yeah, although I don't know if the cost helps there 313 00:19:44.430 --> 00:19:48.839 because one thing that keeps the cost low is you know, 314 00:19:49.019 --> 00:19:53.480 Chinese labor that's paid less. If you paid anything close 315 00:19:53.519 --> 00:19:58.910 to American standards, it would be hard to maintain. 316 00:19:59.410 --> 00:20:04.750 Well, that was mentioned, and even with the increased labor 317 00:20:04.829 --> 00:20:10.269 cost over here, the Chinese vehicles would be cheaper now. 318 00:20:10.799 --> 00:20:17.609 than most anything for sale in this country electric or 319 00:20:20.490 --> 00:20:28.420 run by fossil fuels. Because obviously the vehicle itself just 320 00:20:28.460 --> 00:20:35.039 doesn't cost a lot to produce. I mean, they're selling 321 00:20:35.059 --> 00:20:38.960 them over there for a lot. $ 13, 000. If they bring 322 00:20:38.980 --> 00:20:42.460 them over here and just double that, they're still going 323 00:20:42.480 --> 00:20:44.950 to be very, very competitive. 324 00:20:46.269 --> 00:20:49.369 Oh, yes, much less than anything but maybe the Slate, 325 00:20:49.490 --> 00:20:54.369 which the Slate is a very stripped-down vehicle on purpose 326 00:20:54.430 --> 00:20:57.089 to try to bring the price point down. So it'd 327 00:20:57.130 --> 00:20:59.890 be interesting to see if it happens. I think

eventually 328 00:21:00.670 --> 00:21:02.859 the world keeps getting smaller and smaller. You're going to 329 00:21:02.890 --> 00:21:05.640 see more products around. Well, there's one final thing I 330 00:21:05.660 --> 00:21:09.880 wanted to mention that even though it's not completely Trump-centric, 331 00:21:09.900 --> 00:21:12.099 it had something to do with the Supreme Court making 332 00:21:12.119 --> 00:21:16.839 a ruling. Apparently a 9-0 ruling was handed down by 333 00:21:16.859 --> 00:21:22.069 the Supreme Court, Tim, from all the Missouri House districts. 334 00:21:22.170 --> 00:21:27.589 Missouri keeps trying to get these House districts in. Tell 335 00:21:27.630 --> 00:21:28.970 us what happened there with that ruling. 336 00:21:28.990 --> 00:21:33.769 For the third time, count them, three times the Supreme 337 00:21:33.849 --> 00:21:44.799 Court rejected the Republican-drawn congressional mouth that Donald Trump had pushed. 338 00:21:45.000 --> 00:21:48.799 It is a correct ruling as people are starting to 339 00:21:48.859 --> 00:21:52.859 get ready to vote, and they keep going back and forth, 340 00:21:53.220 --> 00:21:56.160 and the Supreme Court keeps saying, no, we've done ruled 341 00:21:56.309 --> 00:21:56.789 on this. 342 00:21:57.970 --> 00:21:59.579 The And all of. 343 00:21:59.559 --> 00:22:05.109 This because the GOP map had targeted Emanuel Cleaver's district, 344 00:22:05.150 --> 00:22:09.309 you know, over there in the Kansas City area. They 345 00:22:09.349 --> 00:22:13.630 had redrawn his district and turned it from a safe 346 00:22:13.690 --> 00:22:18.150 Democratic district literally into a safe Republican district. Now it 347 00:22:18.170 --> 00:22:23.279 reverts again into a safe Democratic district. There have been 348 00:22:23.279 --> 00:22:30.299 16 lawsuits filed over this one district. That's how hard 349 00:22:30.759 --> 00:22:38.279 the Republicans have pushed this middle-of-the-decade redistricting to try to 350 00:22:38.359 --> 00:22:42.400 grab every district they could because they can see what's 351 00:22:42.460 --> 00:22:47.079 coming at the polls the same that we can. And 352 00:22:47.339 --> 00:22:51.049 they're trying to buffer it by grabbing these districts. 353 00:22:51.089 --> 00:22:54.180 Well, in this case, it didn't work. 354 00:22:54.240 --> 00:22:56.910 So Trump got a win and a loss this week 355 00:22:57.009 --> 00:22:58.269 out of the Supreme Court. 356 00:22:59.630 --> 00:23:03.500 Yes, Wendy, Missouri is not by any means the most 357 00:23:03.539 --> 00:23:07.039 Republican state. It's got Democratic strongholds. But does it seem 358 00:23:07.079 --> 00:23:12.039 like Missouri Republicans are some of those most strident Republicans 359 00:23:12.119 --> 00:23:17.200 and just pushing what they want regardless of what anybody decides? 360 00:23:19.019 --> 00:23:24.259 Yeah, I mean, again, it's part of this– Trump has 361 00:23:24.299 --> 00:23:31.259 made people feel emboldened to– to make

decisions that are, you. 362 00:23:33.440 --> 00:23:34.440 Know, contrary to. 363 00:23:34.339 --> 00:23:37.079 The, you know, it's, it's like, get the power. 364 00:23:37.160 --> 00:23:37.890 You can do it. 365 00:23:37.900 --> 00:23:41.849 There's nothing wrong with you grabbing the power like this gerrymandering. 366 00:23:42.529 --> 00:23:43.440 It's okay. 367 00:23:44.250 --> 00:23:47.450 Um, and, and it's okay if it's racial, just say 368 00:23:47.490 --> 00:23:51.329 it's not racial, say it's political, say it's partisan and 369 00:23:51.369 --> 00:23:56.150 partisan is okay. And racial sometimes not. Okay. So, I mean, 370 00:23:56.170 --> 00:23:59.990 there's just, it, Again, people used to say all kinds 371 00:24:00.009 --> 00:24:02.549 of horrible things, but they said it quietly or in 372 00:24:02.569 --> 00:24:06.630 a whisper behind closed doors. And, you know, Trump says, oh, 373 00:24:06.670 --> 00:24:08.779 just put it on a megaphone. Just be as awful 374 00:24:08.819 --> 00:24:09.579 as you want to be. 375 00:24:09.460 --> 00:24:13.079 And just be loud about it, because by golly, we've 376 00:24:13.119 --> 00:24:13.740 got the power. 377 00:24:13.779 --> 00:24:15.059 So let's use it while we can. 378 00:24:15.079 --> 00:24:16.759 Yes. 379 00:24:17.240 --> 00:24:19.619 Well, we covered a lot of topics in that first segment. 380 00:24:19.660 --> 00:24:22.180 We come back after the break. We're going to talk 381 00:24:22.220 --> 00:24:28.559 to Dr. Rachel Bitterkofer. Hi, welcome back to the Kudzu Vine. 382 00:24:28.599 --> 00:24:30.700 And joining us for I don't know how many times 383 00:24:30.720 --> 00:24:35.829 she's been on, one of our favorite guests, Dr. Rachel Bitterkofer. Welcome, Dr. Bitterkofer. 384 00:24:36.390 --> 00:24:37.609 Hey, how y'all doing? 385 00:24:37.650 --> 00:24:38.509 It's fall, y'all. 386 00:24:39.750 --> 00:24:42.789 Yeah, getting that way. I know you've been talking a 387 00:24:42.849 --> 00:24:47.809 lot about Oregon football almost as much as politics, right? 388 00:24:47.890 --> 00:24:50.460 That's how I spend the football season, definitely. 389 00:24:50.519 --> 00:24:50.700 Yep. 390 00:24:51.359 --> 00:24:51.559 Yep. 391 00:24:52.539 --> 00:24:53.920 We all have to have a diversion. 392 00:24:53.940 --> 00:24:54.009 Yep. 393 00:24:54.339 --> 00:24:56.559 But we did have you on. It's a political show, 394 00:24:56.700 --> 00:25:00.059 so we're going to try to stick to politics. And 395 00:25:01.440 --> 00:25:06.670 your midterm prospectus came out. It was just fascinating. And 396 00:25:06.710 --> 00:25:10.349 before we start drilling into specific states, I just wanted 397 00:25:10.369 --> 00:25:13.630 to ask you kind of a global question. Obviously, there's 398 00:25:13.730 --> 00:25:20.059 so many issues that, you know, people are voting on prices, 399 00:25:20.119 --> 00:25:23.269 affordability issues. you know, the war and how much they 400 00:25:23.289 --> 00:25:26.549 may not like it and data centers. But all of 401 00:25:26.609 --> 00:25:31.400 this seems to come back to Donald Trump's poor decision making. 402 00:25:32.380 --> 00:25:34.099 Do you think from what you can tell in the 403 00:25:34.140 --> 00:25:38.079 research you've done, are voters putting that together that they 404 00:25:38.519 --> 00:25:42.059 don't like the cause, Donald Trump's decision making, or is 405 00:25:42.099 --> 00:25:45.109 it just all the symptoms of like how much they 406 00:25:45.140 --> 00:25:46.170 have to pay for everything? 407 00:25:47.509 --> 00:25:50.190 I mean, if you're asking a complex question, I'll tell 408 00:25:50.210 --> 00:25:54.349 you like organically, there's only so many people who connect 409 00:25:54.970 --> 00:25:58.009 like high prices to Trump and that's why your advertising 410 00:25:58.029 --> 00:26:00.430 needs to help them make that connection. 411 00:26:00.549 --> 00:26:00.789 Right. 412 00:26:01.190 --> 00:26:04.259 But never before have we had a president, I mean, 413 00:26:04.319 --> 00:26:07.299 you know, the way they treated Biden and the pandemic inflation, 414 00:26:07.720 --> 00:26:10.119 he was personally responsible for it and they made it 415 00:26:10.559 --> 00:26:14.190 a central theme of the 2024 cycle. But, you know, 416 00:26:14.259 --> 00:26:16.240 we Democrats aren't as good at that. 417 00:26:16.259 --> 00:26:16.599 Right. 418 00:26:16.940 --> 00:26:19.940 And here we have the case where Donald Trump literally 419 00:26:20.000 --> 00:26:20.900 did it to himself. 420 00:26:20.960 --> 00:26:21.200 He did. 421 00:26:21.319 --> 00:26:23.240 All he had to do was nothing. 422 00:26:23.619 --> 00:26:23.839 Right. 423 00:26:23.920 --> 00:26:27.059 Biden's economy was getting ready to go. All he had 424 00:26:27.079 --> 00:26:30.420 to do was nothing. Inflation had gone down to two seven. 425 00:26:31.160 --> 00:26:31.420 Right. 426 00:26:31.720 --> 00:26:34.450 And gas was down to like three twenty five a 427 00:26:34.470 --> 00:26:38.490 gallon or whatever. And these two decisions, the trade wars 428 00:26:38.549 --> 00:26:42.230 and tariffs, and then the stupid war in Iran, which 429 00:26:42.430 --> 00:26:44.670 I am sure his military advisors told him not to 430 00:26:44.730 --> 00:26:47.210 do because of the straight-up hormes, and he did it 431 00:26:47.319 --> 00:26:49.700 anyway because he had to go and show what a 432 00:26:49.720 --> 00:26:52.480 man he is, right? So in this case, it's really 433 00:26:52.559 --> 00:26:55.619 much easier for people to blame the president because, especially 434 00:26:55.640 --> 00:26:59.240 with Iran, it's very clear. He did this thing in Iran, 435 00:26:59.259 --> 00:27:02.140 and he created an oil crisis, and now diesel is $ 7, right? 436 00:27:04.509 --> 00:27:04.750 Yes. 437 00:27:05.210 --> 00:27:08.009 And one more question about Trump. You see his approval 438 00:27:08.069 --> 00:27:11.279 rating as low as, I believe, 29 percent. You might 439

00:27:11.380 --> 00:27:15.839 see it sneak up to a robust 37 percent. But 440 00:27:15.880 --> 00:27:21.140 my question is, of those people that disapprove, you know, 441 00:27:21.460 --> 00:27:24.690 roughly over 60 percent in every single poll, how many 442 00:27:24.730 --> 00:27:26.789 of those folks are going to be like, well, I 443 00:27:26.829 --> 00:27:29.289 don't like what Trump is doing, but I'm still just 444 00:27:29.329 --> 00:27:31.569 going to vote for Republicans because that's what I do? 445 00:27:32.690 --> 00:27:34.390 Yeah, I mean, what we're going to see this cycle, 446 00:27:34.450 --> 00:27:37.470 what I highlighted in my forecast, which is very different 447 00:27:37.490 --> 00:27:41.970 than what other analysts are doing. is the difference between 448 00:27:41.990 --> 00:27:45.180 this midterm and the 2018 midterm, which was the last 449 00:27:45.599 --> 00:27:49.160 midterm effect against Trump. And Trump is just himself a 450 00:27:49.180 --> 00:27:51.980 very divisive person. He was divisive term one and he's 451 00:27:52.160 --> 00:27:55.200 multiplied it by a thousand term two. So that midterm 452 00:27:55.240 --> 00:27:58.839 effect has always been robust. But in 18, when I 453 00:27:58.859 --> 00:28:01.799 was developing my forecasting technique and I was tracking things 454 00:28:01.960 --> 00:28:05.799 in 2017 and 2018 for special elections to kind of 455 00:28:05.880 --> 00:28:09.210 indicate what's going to happen, Democrats were able to clean 456 00:28:09.250 --> 00:28:11.569 up on the swing map. They were on basically every 457 00:28:11.589 --> 00:28:15.539 swing race there was in 2017 and 2018. But they 458 00:28:15.730 --> 00:28:19.960 never picked up defection from Republican voters. And that's what 459 00:28:20.039 --> 00:28:23.380 this cycle is so unique about. We're seeing about a 460 00:28:23.359 --> 00:28:28.039 10 percent, one in five Republican voter that is telling 461 00:28:28.119 --> 00:28:30.920 us they want to defect and has evidence that we've 462 00:28:30.980 --> 00:28:34.079 had about six, seven races in the most recent one. 463 00:28:34.630 --> 00:28:38.829 is in Pennsylvania where it had a state house special 464 00:28:38.869 --> 00:28:42.150 election in July. And that was a Trump, I believe, 465 00:28:42.390 --> 00:28:46.650 like 13 district. And it flipped. And those things cannot happen. 466 00:28:46.670 --> 00:28:51.079 You can't be flipping deep red places unless you're getting 467 00:28:51.119 --> 00:28:56.059 defection because those electorates are going to be majority Republican 468 00:28:56.099 --> 00:28:59.619 and right-leaning independents. And where that defection is particularly coming 469 00:28:59.680 --> 00:29:03.849 from is those independents who admit that they vote for 470 00:29:03.910 --> 00:29:08.470 Republicans typically. We're seeing softening right there. Those are people 471 00:29:08.509 --> 00:29:09.279 that are softening. 472 00:29:10.579 --> 00:29:10.779 Yes. 473

00:29:11.019 --> 00:29:12.410 Well, I'm going to ask you one more question, and 474 00:29:12.430 --> 00:29:15.920 I'm going to let Wendy and Tim really drill down 475 00:29:15.980 --> 00:29:19.819 into this prospectus and everything else. But I wanted to 476 00:29:19.940 --> 00:29:23.339 ask you about a state, your state that you live in, Oregon. 477 00:29:24.380 --> 00:29:28.579 Oregon's obviously a very blue state, high disapproval for Donald Trump, 478 00:29:28.660 --> 00:29:33.799 two Democratic senators there. a Democratic governor, Tina Kotek, and 479 00:29:34.099 --> 00:29:37.390 I've seen some polling that suggests she's probably going to 480 00:29:37.430 --> 00:29:39.930 win just because it's such a Democratic state, but she's 481 00:29:40.000 --> 00:29:43.559 having trouble in a weird cycle. Why does she seemingly 482 00:29:43.619 --> 00:29:47.430 not connect with voters as much as the average Democratic 483 00:29:47.490 --> 00:29:50.089 governor would in a political environment like this? 484 00:29:50.109 --> 00:29:55.470 I will tell you it's because she is a short-haired 485 00:29:55.890 --> 00:30:00.230 lesbian that is why and you know those candidates fair 486 00:30:00.269 --> 00:30:04.559 or not or those politicians you have to overcome two 487 00:30:04.640 --> 00:30:08.759 things there being a woman okay which changes things and 488 00:30:08.799 --> 00:30:11.640 then being a lesbian on top of it so some 489 00:30:11.700 --> 00:30:14.359 of it is no doubt that but what is what 490 00:30:14.420 --> 00:30:18.089 is going on on the west coast is the liberal base, 491 00:30:18.130 --> 00:30:21.359 you know, the liberal, we tried this, we tried what 492 00:30:21.400 --> 00:30:23.920 Mandami is planning on rolling out in New York City 493 00:30:23.960 --> 00:30:26.980 on the West Coast for homeless policy. And all of 494 00:30:27.039 --> 00:30:31.680 our progressive ideas backfired and created even more homeless and 495 00:30:31.740 --> 00:30:34.599 even more drug use. And it, you know, really early 496 00:30:34.619 --> 00:30:38.759 in the life. being dragged down by that, but I 497 00:30:38.779 --> 00:30:41.539 have absolutely no concern about Oregon. In fact, Oregon is 498 00:30:41.559 --> 00:30:42.660 so blue this cycle. 499 00:30:43.000 --> 00:30:43.700 We know all of. 500 00:30:43.720 --> 00:30:47.460 Our swing or one swing race, two swing race, swing 501 00:30:47.519 --> 00:30:50.619 races for the house of representatives aren't even swinging. 502 00:30:50.640 --> 00:30:51.420 Okay. 503 00:30:51.799 --> 00:30:55.799 So it would be absolutely shocking. If, if, if we 504 00:30:55.819 --> 00:30:58.460 were to see something where, you know, Tina Kotech wasn't, 505 00:30:58.829 --> 00:31:02.400 wasn't reelected, I would be shocked. Now her opponents, If 506 00:31:02.460 --> 00:31:05.259 she was in a swing state, it would be formidable. 507 00:31:05.440 --> 00:31:08.799 Probably the best Republican they have anywhere on the ticket 508 00:31:08.859 --> 00:31:11.720 right now is Christine Grayson, but that's not enough to 509 00:31:11.849 --> 00:31:15.829 overcome that party idea on the ballot in a cycle 510 00:31:15.869 --> 00:31:18.069 where no one's buying the R brand. 511 00:31:19.410 --> 00:31:22.269 Yes, I was just interested about that. So now we're 512 00:31:22.289 --> 00:31:25.650 going to get into the really competitive stuff with Wendy 513 00:31:25.690 --> 00:31:27.970 and then Tim. Wendy, I'm going to let you ask 514 00:31:28.009 --> 00:31:28.690 some questions. 515 00:31:31.380 --> 00:31:33.650 Thanks so much, and Doc, thanks for being with us. 516 00:31:35.029 --> 00:31:40.029 I am most curious about Texas. Should we believe this time? 517 00:31:40.049 --> 00:31:42.990 How many times have they wanted us to believe that 518 00:31:43.029 --> 00:31:46.210 we could make Texas blue or. 519 00:31:47.690 --> 00:31:50.519 Bluish? Where are we going with Texas? 520 00:31:50.579 --> 00:31:53.920 The Senate race seems exciting, and heck, I think there 521 00:31:53.940 --> 00:31:56.799 was a poll this week that showed that the governor's 522 00:31:56.859 --> 00:31:57.599 race was close. 523 00:31:57.660 --> 00:31:59.660 So tell me where we're going in Texas. 524 00:32:00.339 --> 00:32:00.539 Yeah. 525 00:32:00.619 --> 00:32:03.930 So the forecast is focused in the Senate side about, 526 00:32:04.029 --> 00:32:06.329 you know, how hard it is to win a Senate 527 00:32:06.349 --> 00:32:09.869 majority that cycle in every cycle until we fix our 528 00:32:09.970 --> 00:32:15.000 branded middle America. And, you know, even with a blue wave, 529 00:32:15.460 --> 00:32:17.980 you know, you're looking at pickups that are tough. Maine, 530 00:32:18.339 --> 00:32:21.880 North Carolina is in, you know, pretty much in the bag. 531 00:32:22.240 --> 00:32:25.119 But you got Maine and Alaska. And then you have 532 00:32:25.160 --> 00:32:27.579 to go beyond that if you want the majorities. So 533 00:32:27.619 --> 00:32:29.700 not only do you have to win these hard states, 534 00:32:29.779 --> 00:32:33.289 Maine and Alaska, we add in Texas and Ohio to 535 00:32:33.329 --> 00:32:36.130 that mix. Now, what I want to tell you is 536 00:32:36.210 --> 00:32:41.509 if not now, never, eh, okay? You've got the right candidate, 537 00:32:41.849 --> 00:32:46.609 the right fundamentals, the right campaign strategy, right? Like it's 538 00:32:46.930 --> 00:32:50.339 all happening in Texas right now. And you've got the 539 00:32:50.740 --> 00:32:55.799 worst opponent you could ever have. So if not now, never, okay? 540 00:32:56.309 --> 00:32:58.990 And yes, I do think Texas has potential to flip. 541 00:32:59.109 --> 00:33:02.069 If we are looking at a math where Ohio goes 542 00:33:02.309 --> 00:33:06.329 to blue and the governor and Senate race, I think 543 00:33:06.450 --> 00:33:11.240 it's probable that Texas will go to certifying that win. However, 544 00:33:11.720 --> 00:33:13.920 different problems,

different conversation. 545 00:33:15.559 --> 00:33:15.900 Right. 546 00:33:16.579 --> 00:33:20.559 And are you, let's, let's have, tell me what you've 547 00:33:20.599 --> 00:33:24.170 looked at here in Georgia. Of course, feeling good about 548 00:33:24.230 --> 00:33:28.789 our Senate race. I suppose you're seeing that off office 549 00:33:28.869 --> 00:33:31.349 in good shape. How do you see the governor's race? 550 00:33:32.269 --> 00:33:34.450 Yeah, I mean, I think that's competitive as well because 551 00:33:34.509 --> 00:33:37.109 of the environment that we're in and, you know, the 552 00:33:37.150 --> 00:33:40.410 candidate that they have put up, Slick Rick, right? And 553 00:33:40.450 --> 00:33:43.359 good for her for naming him and giving him a silly. 554 00:33:43.160 --> 00:33:43.960 Nickname, right? 555 00:33:45.059 --> 00:33:47.700 So there's a potential we'll see Georgia for the first 556 00:33:47.740 --> 00:33:52.470 time go blue statewide outside of the Senate races. And 557 00:33:52.970 --> 00:33:57.710 Ossoff obviously is, in my opinion, setting the tone of 558 00:33:57.750 --> 00:34:00.609 how to campaign and win reelection in a state like 559 00:34:00.650 --> 00:34:04.630 Georgia and possibly the presidency, though he says he's not 560 00:34:04.650 --> 00:34:10.500 going to run, and has luckily put this race in 561 00:34:10.539 --> 00:34:14.519 what I would call too big to rig. And why 562 00:34:14.559 --> 00:34:16.519 do I mention that? And as I point out in 563 00:34:16.559 --> 00:34:19.960 the forecast, There's very few– I mean, there are places 564 00:34:20.000 --> 00:34:23.099 where they can get in the way of certification. Texas 565 00:34:23.139 --> 00:34:26.639 is obviously the best example of that, where the Republican 566 00:34:27.050 --> 00:34:33.010 Party of Texas has told us that they're going to– 567 00:34:37.880 --> 00:34:42.219 the Republican legislature gave itself a power of veto over 568 00:34:42.280 --> 00:34:46.039 election certification. But I don't think that it's going to 569 00:34:46.099 --> 00:34:48.820 be played. I don't think that I think we're going 570 00:34:48.840 --> 00:34:50.460 to see things go fine in Georgia. 571 00:34:52.400 --> 00:34:53.900 Well, I'm sure glad to hear that. 572 00:34:54.719 --> 00:34:57.449 And I guess before I turn it over to Tim, 573 00:34:57.530 --> 00:35:00.829 I want to ask what, as you've dug in and 574 00:35:00.949 --> 00:35:04.929 looked around the country, what is the most surprising place 575 00:35:05.010 --> 00:35:09.489 to you where Democrats are going to, you know, shock 576 00:35:09.610 --> 00:35:14.639 the country or where Republicans somehow are remarkably holding on 577 00:35:14.760 --> 00:35:19.099 when local conditions feel like they shouldn't by all rights. 578 00:35:19.909 --> 00:35:22.670 Yeah, I mean, one thing I do in the forecast 579 00:35:22.710 --> 00:35:26.070 is try to explain, listen, if Democrats win those three 580 00:35:26.110 --> 00:35:29.650 and then pick up Ohio and Texas, that is not 581 00:35:29.690 --> 00:35:33.389 a blue wave. That is a blue tsunami, right? So 582 00:35:33.429 --> 00:35:37.190 it's a highly unexpected outcome. So I would say that 583 00:35:37.230 --> 00:35:40.449 those are unexpected outcomes. They are goals, but they are 584 00:35:40.550 --> 00:35:44.510 unexpected outcomes. Beyond that, I think probably the most surprising 585 00:35:44.570 --> 00:35:49.000 thing is how many other candidates are at least giving 586 00:35:49.019 --> 00:35:53.280 their Republican opponents a problem, right, where they have to 587 00:35:53.380 --> 00:35:57.460 invest resources. I mean, I'm working on a couple races 588 00:35:57.500 --> 00:35:59.360 in Pennsylvania, but one of them is a Trump plus 589 00:35:59.360 --> 00:36:02.340 13 district, and I think it's going to flip, right? 590 00:36:02.679 --> 00:36:05.510 So I think the takeaway on election night is going 591 00:36:05.530 --> 00:36:09.690 to be just how deep into deep red territory this 592 00:36:09.789 --> 00:36:11.630 backlash to Trump reaches. 593 00:36:13.210 --> 00:36:13.510 Wow. 594 00:36:13.829 --> 00:36:14.210 Okay. 595 00:36:14.349 --> 00:36:16.349 So I'm going to turn it over to Tim, but 596 00:36:16.429 --> 00:36:19.269 I want to tee up something for you and us 597 00:36:19.309 --> 00:36:19.889 to talk. 598 00:36:19.710 --> 00:36:23.349 About next time you're on. If we win in all. 599 00:36:23.250 --> 00:36:26.940 These unexpected places, how do we make sure we govern 600 00:36:27.019 --> 00:36:30.340 so they can get reelected? But in the meantime, back 601 00:36:30.380 --> 00:36:31.780 to now and over to Tim. 602 00:36:33.699 --> 00:36:34.780 Good evening, doctor. 603 00:36:34.860 --> 00:36:37.340 Thank you for being with us again. Good to have 604 00:36:37.380 --> 00:36:37.820 you on. 605 00:36:38.480 --> 00:36:39.619 Always good to be with y'all. 606 00:36:41.699 --> 00:36:48.610 So, recently I took a cross-country road trip. Ended up, 607 00:36:48.650 --> 00:36:51.610 as a matter of fact, in Seaside, Oregon, a place 608 00:36:51.690 --> 00:36:53.489 I'm sure you know very well. 609 00:36:53.909 --> 00:36:54.469 Oh, dude. 610 00:36:54.710 --> 00:36:55.610 Oh, my goodness. 611 00:36:56.469 --> 00:36:58.630 Went right through Portland on the way over there. 612 00:36:58.650 --> 00:37:01.840 But anyway, came up through the state of Idaho up 613 00:37:01.880 --> 00:37:05.199 to Coeur d'Alene and on the way back down through 614 00:37:05.239 --> 00:37:07.579 Boise City and in the southern part of the state. 615 00:37:07.599 --> 00:37:09.679 And I stopped at a couple of stores, talked to 616 00:37:09.699 --> 00:37:10.239 some people. 617 00:37:11.139 --> 00:37:14.500 And, you know, you quickly realize that you're not in 618 00:37:14.579 --> 00:37:20.159 Frank Church's Idaho anymore. I mean, it's obviously one of 619 00:37:20.199 --> 00:37:24.260 the reddest of red states, but yet I'm looking at 620

00:37:24.340 --> 00:37:30.840 some Senate race ratings, and the Senate race there is 621 00:37:31.000 --> 00:37:36.320 listed as lean Republican. Now, I've got to ask you, 622 00:37:36.699 --> 00:37:41.219 is that result of what's going on in the country, 623 00:37:41.739 --> 00:37:45.380 or is there something more local to that race that's 624 00:37:45.460 --> 00:37:46.920 causing it to be that close? 625 00:37:48.079 --> 00:37:52.900 No, it's purely the result of what's happening nationally. That's 626 00:37:52.960 --> 00:37:57.349 exactly it. And then the midterm effect is, like I 627 00:37:57.369 --> 00:38:01.989 always say, people want, you know, really to cling to 628 00:38:02.030 --> 00:38:05.570 this idea that all politics is local. Well, When you're 629 00:38:05.610 --> 00:38:09.070 engaging in a campaign, you want to have as local 630 00:38:09.429 --> 00:38:12.050 a presence as possible. And you do, if there's some 631 00:38:12.110 --> 00:38:14.849 local things, want to be talking about them, not in 632 00:38:14.889 --> 00:38:17.349 your paid advertising. What you want to be doing in 633 00:38:17.369 --> 00:38:21.989 your paid advertising is nationalizing the race, unless the national 634 00:38:22.030 --> 00:38:25.070 environment doesn't benefit you, which is why when you look 635 00:38:25.110 --> 00:38:28.760 at how Republicans are running, particularly Christine Drazen's ads, which 636 00:38:28.820 --> 00:38:31.079 I have the benefit of having to watch every night 637 00:38:31.119 --> 00:38:35.980 with the news, You know, it is about minimizing partisanship 638 00:38:36.000 --> 00:38:39.519 and running away from, you know, separating herself from the 639 00:38:39.579 --> 00:38:43.480 Republican Party. And you can only do that so well 640 00:38:43.699 --> 00:38:46.320 in a midterm environment. So we're going to see a 641 00:38:46.800 --> 00:38:49.780 midterm effect, I think, for the ages this cycle. And 642 00:38:49.800 --> 00:38:53.239 it may not be enough to flip a place like Idaho, 643 00:38:53.260 --> 00:38:55.699 but we're going to see margins that should scare the 644 00:38:55.739 --> 00:38:56.920 GOP pretty badly. 645 00:38:58.429 --> 00:38:58.840 Goodness. 646 00:38:59.559 --> 00:39:05.380 Well, another thing our Republican friends tried to do, unprecedented 647 00:39:05.440 --> 00:39:09.860 this year, was they conducted quite a bit of redistricting 648 00:39:09.980 --> 00:39:11.639 of congressional. 649 00:39:10.980 --> 00:39:14.519 Districts at the request of Donald Trump. A lot of 650 00:39:14.539 --> 00:39:15.599 them down south. 651 00:39:16.159 --> 00:39:23.300 A lot of them displaced African Americans. But your forecast 652 00:39:23.320 --> 00:39:29.969 is very bullish on major Democrat House gains. So did, 653 00:39:30.079 --> 00:39:34.880 that redistricting simply blow up in their faces or did 654 00:39:35.079 --> 00:39:39.489 it just not make enough difference considering the national landscape? 655 00:39:40.239 --> 00:39:42.289 Yeah, so it went wrong for them on two levels. 656 00:39:42.329 --> 00:39:44.530 Number one, in the forecast, I do talk about the 657 00:39:44.590 --> 00:39:47.489 redistricted seats and the gain loss that each party is 658 00:39:47.510 --> 00:39:49.949 going to make and where that puts us. So if 659 00:39:49.989 --> 00:39:52.409 you want to check that part out of the forecast, 660 00:39:52.449 --> 00:39:55.789 you can. But in terms of the redistricting, there's a 661 00:39:55.809 --> 00:39:59.309 couple of things. Number one, they've redistricted Texas with this 662 00:39:59.489 --> 00:40:03.250 idea that the Latino love of Republicans was something that 663 00:40:03.369 --> 00:40:07.800 actually was substantive when it was really just an out-party effect. 664 00:40:08.159 --> 00:40:10.380 And even if he hadn't been as bad as he was, 665 00:40:10.599 --> 00:40:14.340 that would have declined when Trump became president again. But 666 00:40:14.380 --> 00:40:17.420 the way that he has treated Latino people and like 667 00:40:17.460 --> 00:40:20.579 the economic stuff, too, it is just plummeted. I mean, 668 00:40:20.599 --> 00:40:24.280 his approval and Latino margins are going to be incredible, 669 00:40:24.420 --> 00:40:28.039 incredibly bad. I mean, and because they bleached out like 670 00:40:28.059 --> 00:40:30.260 so they were counting on a certain robust margin on 671 00:40:30.300 --> 00:40:33.300 Latino vote. And that means a couple of the districts 672 00:40:33.320 --> 00:40:35.739 that they thought they could pick up in Texas are 673 00:40:35.800 --> 00:40:40.860 problematic now. And in addition to that, California moved you know, 674 00:40:40.969 --> 00:40:45.389 got prop fit, the measure passed to redistrict, right? And 675 00:40:45.449 --> 00:40:49.210 Gavin Newsom's gerrymander is offsetting a few of the seat 676 00:40:49.250 --> 00:40:53.489 gains that they made by crushing the Voting Rights Act 677 00:40:53.530 --> 00:40:57.489 in the South, basically, right? And so, you know, in 678 00:40:57.570 --> 00:41:00.489 other words, it's kind of a wash. But like, last 679 00:41:00.650 --> 00:41:04.139 in the 2018 cycle, because the 2018 was the end 680 00:41:04.179 --> 00:41:08.400 of a census decade, okay? And And there had been 681 00:41:08.519 --> 00:41:12.420 so much in flight to southern places like Virginia, like Georgia, 682 00:41:12.840 --> 00:41:16.940 that I knew like the partisan scores we use on 683 00:41:17.000 --> 00:41:20.940 districts had been outdated. This cycle, the Democrats just have 684 00:41:20.960 --> 00:41:23.980 a very tough map to win the 20 that I 685 00:41:24.019 --> 00:41:26.579 think are going to flip. I said the core 20 686 00:41:26.579 --> 00:41:29.679 in the forecast are going to flip. Just those 20 687 00:41:29.679 --> 00:41:33.139 were in R plus positive territory. So there's no gimme 688 00:41:33.199 --> 00:41:36.400 races in this. set of House races. So if the 689 00:41:36.440 -->

00:41:41.769 Democrats pick up 20 or 30 seats, it's a massive performance. 690 00:41:44.030 --> 00:41:49.409 You mentioned Hispanics. Is the Hispanic. 691 00:41:48.650 --> 00:41:53.320 Support for Republicans collapsing? Is that universal? Is that happening 692 00:41:53.579 --> 00:41:54.480 all over the country? 693 00:41:54.519 --> 00:41:57.159 I know you were talking about Texas, but is it 694 00:41:57.219 --> 00:42:01.769 happening in other places, say, I don't know, Florida, for instance? Yes. 695 00:42:02.469 --> 00:42:05.300 Well, it's happening in other places except Florida. Why is 696 00:42:05.360 --> 00:42:09.960 Florida the exception? Because its Hispanic population is predominantly drawn 697 00:42:10.400 --> 00:42:16.699 from South America, whereas Texas, Arizona, that population tends to 698 00:42:16.739 --> 00:42:21.809 come from Mexico. And the Republican Party has been very 699 00:42:21.869 --> 00:42:24.769 good at branding the Democrats as socialist and communist for 700 00:42:24.809 --> 00:42:27.469 over a decade, and a lot of people have bought 701 00:42:27.550 --> 00:42:29.789 into that, right? So what we're going to see in 702 00:42:29.849 --> 00:42:34.150 Florida is a pullback of that community. Trump deported all 703 00:42:34.170 --> 00:42:38.920 of the Haitians and the Venezuelans, especially the Venezuelans. People 704 00:42:38.960 --> 00:42:42.219 aren't going to appreciate that in Florida. But it's still 705 00:42:42.619 --> 00:42:45.760 a million and a half voter registration in that state. 706 00:42:46.219 --> 00:42:49.110 So the governor's race is competitive because it has a 707 00:42:49.139 --> 00:42:53.550 nominee that in theory is able to pick up some support. 708 00:42:53.869 --> 00:42:56.030 I think we could see a really close governor's race, 709 00:42:56.090 --> 00:42:58.579 in fact. but the Senate race is off the table. 710 00:42:58.599 --> 00:43:05.320 Okay. So when I sat down at my television on 711 00:43:05.400 --> 00:43:10.420 election night, I'm going to be watching as my. 712 00:43:10.280 --> 00:43:12.269 Race to watch to see how we're. 713 00:43:12.119 --> 00:43:15.690 Doing the North Carolina Senate race, not for a win 714 00:43:15.730 --> 00:43:18.230 or a loss, but for how early. 715 00:43:18.489 --> 00:43:21.210 That race is calling. The reason for that. 716 00:43:21.349 --> 00:43:24.690 Is that has been drilled into my head by some 717 00:43:24.730 --> 00:43:29.619 of my friends and acquaintances over there that North Carolina 718 00:43:29.980 --> 00:43:34.039 is simply a purple state and most races are going 719 00:43:34.079 --> 00:43:38.030 to be very close. And I'm thinking, well, if they 720 00:43:38.090 --> 00:43:42.829 call this race early and it's something approaching double digits, 721 00:43:43.190 --> 00:43:46.730 we should be having a really good night around the country. 722 00:43:47.250 --> 00:43:50.309 So what are you going to be looking at? What 723 00:43:50.409 --> 00:43:52.530 race are you going to be looking at or what 724 00:43:52.670 --> 00:43:55.869 state are you going to be looking at as a 725 00:43:55.989 --> 00:43:59.250 bellwether to tell you what's going. 726 00:43:59.090 --> 00:43:59.949 On in the country. 727 00:44:00.710 --> 00:44:03.789 I mean, it's really just the eastern seaboard. The eastern 728 00:44:03.829 --> 00:44:08.889 coast polls tend to close at 7, and they're all 729 00:44:08.909 --> 00:44:11.019 going to pop at once. So it's not like there's 730 00:44:11.139 --> 00:44:13.760 one outlier that we're going to look at first, right? 731 00:44:14.039 --> 00:44:16.719 But you're exactly right. The size of the ease of 732 00:44:16.820 --> 00:44:20.539 victory in Pennsylvania for Shapiro and for Cooper in North 733 00:44:20.579 --> 00:44:23.659 Carolina are going to be good indications of the strength 734 00:44:24.019 --> 00:44:27.329 of that defection vote. But I'll be looking for my 735 00:44:27.369 --> 00:44:30.610 districts that are on the East Coast that are, you know, 736 00:44:30.769 --> 00:44:35.829 all of them are generally Republican positive districts. And, you know, 737 00:44:35.869 --> 00:44:38.269 we should know pretty early. And then, you know, like 738 00:44:38.429 --> 00:44:40.769 what we've learned, too, is you're not going to get 739 00:44:41.309 --> 00:44:44.940 vote tallies out of California for a week. I don't 740 00:44:44.960 --> 00:44:45.599 know why. 741 00:44:46.099 --> 00:44:47.300 I don't know why. 742 00:44:47.699 --> 00:44:50.340 Because in Oregon, we have all vote by mail and 743 00:44:50.440 --> 00:44:51.800 we've never had that problem. 744 00:44:51.860 --> 00:44:51.980 But. 745 00:44:52.380 --> 00:44:55.070 It's going to take them time to count the ballots, apparently. So, 746 00:44:55.690 --> 00:44:59.530 you know, we won't have certainty. And then, you know, Texas, 747 00:44:59.769 --> 00:45:02.510 that's central time. So, I mean, I'll be looking at 748 00:45:02.530 --> 00:45:05.070 those East Coast races. And I don't think, okay, we've 749 00:45:05.090 --> 00:45:05.929 got Susan. 750 00:45:05.650 --> 00:45:06.670 Collins in Maine. 751 00:45:06.690 --> 00:45:10.920 You've got the North Carolina Center race and the Ossoffs margin. 752 00:45:10.940 --> 00:45:12.099 I'll be looking at that as well. 753 00:45:13.719 --> 00:45:16.739 All right. And I'm going to make my last question 754 00:45:16.780 --> 00:45:20.380 about Susan Collins because I don't know how many. 755 00:45:20.139 --> 00:45:23.730 Cycles, three or the last four at least. 756 00:45:24.550 --> 00:45:27.369 I thought, well, we finally are going to get her 757 00:45:27.449 --> 00:45:31.559 this year. And time after time, she has prevailed sometimes 758 00:45:31.659 --> 00:45:36.599 rather easily. Can she survive this wave or is this 759 00:45:36.699 --> 00:45:37.519 finally the year? 760 00:45:38.380 --> 00:45:41.610 If there's anyone that can survive the wave other than 761 00:45:41.650 --> 00:45:45.409

Lisa Murkowski, it would be Susan Collins. And Lisa's not up, right? 762 00:45:45.809 --> 00:45:49.610 So it would be Susan Collins, right? I mean, it's frustrating, 763 00:45:49.650 --> 00:45:52.880 but at least this time, all the fundamentals are right again, 764 00:45:53.340 --> 00:45:57.360 like in 18 or 20 or whenever Sarah Gideon must 765 00:45:57.380 --> 00:46:01.719 have lost in 2020. Yep, in 2020, right? Out-party fundamentals, 766 00:46:02.260 --> 00:46:04.730 and yet they couldn't take her out. The only difference, 767 00:46:04.829 --> 00:46:07.309 and then, of course, we have that nominee problem, right? 768 00:46:07.329 --> 00:46:10.139 So you have The guy with the Nazi tattoos, and 769 00:46:10.159 --> 00:46:14.949 the new guy coming in, and the new guy is 770 00:46:15.110 --> 00:46:18.409 not particularly charismatic, but whatever, right? At least he doesn't 771 00:46:18.429 --> 00:46:20.869 have Nazi tattoos, and the race is about Susan Collins. 772 00:46:20.889 --> 00:46:24.789 That's all I ever wanted in Maine was for someone 773 00:46:24.829 --> 00:46:28.489 to make a strategy that was focused on her, okay? 774 00:46:28.869 --> 00:46:32.739 And undermining her brand as a moderate, because she has 775 00:46:32.940 --> 00:46:37.500 a 95% voting record with Trump, and when it really matters... 776 00:46:37.590 --> 00:46:42.469 every time she votes for fascism, right? So, you know, 777 00:46:42.510 --> 00:46:45.480 we really at least have run the right strategy this 778 00:46:45.539 --> 00:46:48.059 time around, and we'll have to see what happens. But 779 00:46:48.179 --> 00:46:51.719 there's no way we can look at polling in anywhere, anywhere, 780 00:46:51.739 --> 00:46:53.929 but polling, you know, I would advise you not to 781 00:46:53.949 --> 00:46:57.590 be focused on because, you know, Oregon governor is not 782 00:46:57.630 --> 00:46:59.849 competitive at all. But if you look at the polling, 783 00:46:59.889 --> 00:47:02.190 it looks like it's competitive, right? So that should tell 784 00:47:02.230 --> 00:47:05.889 you something's weird about polling. And so we can't trust 785 00:47:05.929 --> 00:47:08.269 the Collins polling. We had her up, I think her 786 00:47:08.289 --> 00:47:11.269 opponent was up like nine in 2020, and then still 787 00:47:11.369 --> 00:47:13.929 Collins not only wins it, but wins it big, right? 788 00:47:14.429 --> 00:47:17.159 So we really, I'll believe it when we see it 789 00:47:17.239 --> 00:47:20.860 on Texas, on Maine, on Alaska. I want these things 790 00:47:20.920 --> 00:47:22.880 to happen really bad, and I try not to let 791 00:47:22.940 --> 00:47:26.639 those preferences cloud my analysis. You know, I want to 792 00:47:26.679 --> 00:47:32.269 be right even more. So, you know, but if not now, 793 00:47:32.570 --> 00:47:33.670 never on Collins. 794 00:47:33.710 --> 00:47:33.869 Yeah. 795 00:47:36.110 --> 00:47:36.969 Well, Dr. 796 00:47:36.989 --> 00:47:41.050 Bittercoffer, your analysis that you mentioned is among the best 797 00:47:41.469 --> 00:47:44.389 that I hear in every cycle, and I always seek 798 00:47:44.449 --> 00:47:47.610 you out, even when you don't know that I'm reading. 799 00:47:47.750 --> 00:47:50.690 I'm there doing it anyway. And with that, I'm going 800 00:47:50.710 --> 00:47:53.210 to send it back to David. 801 00:47:54.130 --> 00:47:58.489 Yes, completely echo what Tim said, and let's leave with this. 802 00:47:59.070 --> 00:48:03.369 You have the Substack Recycle. I also follow you on Twitter. 803 00:48:03.409 --> 00:48:08.159 That's why I know you know, your passion for Oregon football, 804 00:48:08.179 --> 00:48:11.400 where you're not writing that about the cycle. So tell 805 00:48:11.480 --> 00:48:13.800 our listeners where they can read you between now and 806 00:48:13.840 --> 00:48:16.280 election day and then even after when you're going to 807 00:48:16.300 --> 00:48:17.579 tell us what happened. 808 00:48:18.219 --> 00:48:21.449 Yeah, I mean, I want people to understand we're going 809 00:48:21.469 --> 00:48:24.550 to go through some things now. The first two years 810 00:48:24.650 --> 00:48:27.610 were not great with Trump, but they are tame compared 811 00:48:27.650 --> 00:48:30.309 to what's coming next, okay? And so if you want 812 00:48:30.329 --> 00:48:32.280 to stay ahead of all that and you want to 813 00:48:32.539 --> 00:48:36.340 understand it, then you should subscribe to the cycle on 814 00:48:36.389 --> 00:48:39.559 sub stack. That's my site, my, um, where I do 815 00:48:39.599 --> 00:48:42.179 my analysis. I put out at least once a piece, 816 00:48:42.260 --> 00:48:44.480 one piece a week. I don't, I go for quality 817 00:48:44.559 --> 00:48:47.360 over quantity. So you're not getting a bunch of stuff 818 00:48:47.400 --> 00:48:50.199 in the inbox. And if you can support me with 819 00:48:50.239 --> 00:48:52.670 a paid subscription, I run the sub stack, like a 820 00:48:52.690 --> 00:48:56.309 PBS model where people who want to support my work can, 821 00:48:56.349 --> 00:48:58.170 and then people who need to read the work and 822 00:48:58.190 --> 00:49:02.349 don't have the money can also by not having it paywall. So, um, 823 00:49:03.119 --> 00:49:05.150 And that's where they can find my stuff. I highly 824 00:49:05.230 --> 00:49:07.809 recommend it. We're going to be going through some things 825 00:49:07.829 --> 00:49:08.909 these next two years. 826 00:49:11.050 --> 00:49:14.820 Yes. Well, thank you so much. And, you know, work hard, 827 00:49:14.860 --> 00:49:17.480 but pace yourself between now and Election Day. 828 00:49:18.260 --> 00:49:18.639 You too. 829 00:49:20.369 --> 00:49:22.090 All right. 830 00:49:23.199 --> 00:49:27.619 Go dogs, go ducks. I said go dogs, go ducks. 831 00:49:28.679 --> 00:49:29.099 Yes. 832 00:49:29.239 --> 00:49:30.980 Well, thanks for joining us this evening. 833 00:49:31.659 --> 00:49:32.820 Thank you so much for having me. 834 00:49:32.840 -->

00:49:34.440 All right. 835 00:49:34.920 --> 00:49:37.840 That was Dr. Rachel Bitterkofer. And in our final segment, 836 00:49:37.860 --> 00:49:42.199 it'll just be Wendy, Tim, and I going over Alabama, 837 00:49:43.030 --> 00:49:46.389 some interesting things were said by their, I guess he's 838 00:49:46.409 --> 00:49:50.570 their senior senator now, possibly future governor, but we'll do 839 00:49:50.610 --> 00:49:58.309 that in the final segment on the Internet Only podcast. Hi, 840 00:49:58.349 --> 00:50:00.929 welcome back to our final segment. In our final segment, 841 00:50:00.949 --> 00:50:02.829 we're going to get back to our kudzu vine roots 842 00:50:02.869 --> 00:50:08.449 where we talk about one southern state, essentially one southern topic. 843 00:50:09.050 --> 00:50:11.429 And that state's going to be the yellow hammer state 844 00:50:11.550 --> 00:50:14.789 next door to us, even next door to UTM. You're 845 00:50:14.809 --> 00:50:17.579 just now north of it. We're to the east of it. 846 00:50:17.590 --> 00:50:20.409 But that would be Alabama. And we'll kind of go 847 00:50:20.449 --> 00:50:23.139 through a few facets of this. But this past week, 848 00:50:23.920 --> 00:50:29.659 their governor's candidate was not doing his governor candidate business. 849 00:50:29.760 --> 00:50:32.639 He was worrying about something, I guess we might just say, 850 00:50:32.860 --> 00:50:38.150 far greater than anything happening possibly in Alabama. And that 851 00:50:38.190 --> 00:50:43.260 would be Apparently, throughout our airline industry, we have a 852 00:50:43.440 --> 00:50:48.340 rampant furry problem. Now, that doesn't mean that gerbils and 853 00:50:48.440 --> 00:50:53.099 squirrels and everything else are on the loose. That means 854 00:50:53.179 --> 00:50:59.099 that apparently the pilots and flight attendants and other personnel 855 00:50:59.579 --> 00:51:02.340 are into the furry culture, at least a few of them. 856 00:51:02.400 --> 00:51:05.920 That's folks that like to dress up in costumes and 857 00:51:05.960 --> 00:51:08.780 then do other things. But once again... This would be 858 00:51:08.800 --> 00:51:13.420 between consenting adults on their own private time, not putting 859 00:51:13.440 --> 00:51:17.559 the thing on autopilot. So it was such a weird, 860 00:51:17.820 --> 00:51:23.250 bizarre thing to even discuss on the Senate floor. Wendy, 861 00:51:23.429 --> 00:51:26.570 what in the world is Tommy Tuberville thinking? 862 00:51:28.469 --> 00:51:38.150 He is reaching into the... playbook if we will use 863 00:51:38.190 --> 00:51:43.449 that analogy right of you know random things to say 864 00:51:43.550 --> 00:51:47.869 for 200 alex um you know the the kitty litter 865 00:51:47.889 --> 00:51:51.449 stuff people have brought up in schools that you know 866 00:51:51.469 --> 00:51:53.659 that's the next thing that we need to be worried 867 00:51:53.699 --> 00:51:58.079 about ruining our students so not only does he accuse 868 00:51:58.719 --> 00:52:02.280 the pilots and maybe the flight attendants but he even 869 00:52:02.320 --> 00:52:08.170 goes after the air traffic controllers and it was so 870 00:52:08.230 --> 00:52:10.530 funny because when that story came out I mean it's 871 00:52:10.570 --> 00:52:16.429 not funny really because it's you know it's perverse fascination 872 00:52:16.510 --> 00:52:19.599 right and I love the people who found photos of 873 00:52:19.639 --> 00:52:21.500 him then with mascots. 874 00:52:20.900 --> 00:52:22.639 Who of course are furries right. 875 00:52:26.139 --> 00:52:30.679 Have the look of furries right but it's just again 876 00:52:30.760 --> 00:52:33.710 it's more distraction it's trying to. 877 00:52:34.420 --> 00:52:37.659 Stir people up. I wouldn't even call it red. 878 00:52:37.530 --> 00:52:40.590 Meat because it's so odd that most people don't even 879 00:52:40.630 --> 00:52:43.989 know what he's talking about. I probably wouldn't have even 880 00:52:44.030 --> 00:52:47.150 known if I hadn't seen some CSI episode years. 881 00:52:46.989 --> 00:52:48.969 Ago where they had like a. 882 00:52:49.030 --> 00:52:55.449 Furries convention or something where somebody died. But it's ridiculousness 883 00:52:55.909 --> 00:53:00.130 and I really think that Doug Jones is making a 884 00:53:00.170 --> 00:53:04.250 great case over there in Alabama. Again, he's got He's 885 00:53:04.590 --> 00:53:09.239 plowing uphill, if that's even an analogy. But it's a tough, 886 00:53:09.260 --> 00:53:15.239 tough state. But Tuberville just every day, every week, every 887 00:53:15.320 --> 00:53:17.880 month shows how ignorant he is. 888 00:53:17.900 --> 00:53:20.739 I can't remember somebody else with. 889 00:53:20.590 --> 00:53:22.449 Yesterday said, I don't even know how he won a 890 00:53:22.510 --> 00:53:25.630 single ball game as a coach of a team because 891 00:53:25.690 --> 00:53:31.320 he just lacks intelligence and certainly lacks... the kind of 892 00:53:31.340 --> 00:53:33.699 character we'd like to see in what's supposed to be 893 00:53:33.739 --> 00:53:35.480 the august body of the U.S. 894 00:53:35.500 --> 00:53:38.460 Senate. Tim, do you see it differently? 895 00:53:38.480 --> 00:53:41.079 Well, Tim, I was going to ask you, I've got 896 00:53:41.139 --> 00:53:46.590 two theories on this. Do you think that, A, Tommy 897 00:53:46.619 --> 00:53:49.130 Tubber will say, you know, I'm not getting made fun 898 00:53:49.210 --> 00:53:54.550 of enough on The Daily Show, on Jimmy Kimmel, on other, 899 00:53:54.730 --> 00:53:58.469 you know, satire political shows, or he said, you know, 900 00:53:59.210 --> 00:54:02.510 I just need to give Doug Jones some material to 901 00:54:02.570 --> 00:54:06.869 attack me to show how unqualified I am. Which one 902 00:54:06.889 --> 00:54:07.849 of those do you think it is? 903 00:54:08.550 --> 00:54:13.250 Well, I think it's option three because let me tell 904 00:54:13.329 --> 00:54:16.269 you how

this fool came around to doing what he 905 00:54:16.329 --> 00:54:16.969 was doing. 906 00:54:18.349 --> 00:54:19.630 Wendy alluded to it. 907 00:54:19.730 --> 00:54:23.780 There's a group of devoted folks in the country. I 908 00:54:23.800 --> 00:54:29.320 don't know how many, but they are interested in anthropomorphic animals. 909 00:54:29.920 --> 00:54:36.219 Those are fictional animals that act like humans. That's a furry. Now, 910 00:54:36.280 --> 00:54:39.360 why did he go after pilots? Well, back in April, 911 00:54:39.949 --> 00:54:44.309 a couple of pilots were fooling around on their radios 912 00:54:44.530 --> 00:54:48.730 in some downtime, and they were actually meowing and barking 913 00:54:48.849 --> 00:54:52.650 at each other. Well, the FAA did not take kindly 914 00:54:52.710 --> 00:54:57.489 to that, and they castigated the two gentlemen for using 915 00:54:57.659 --> 00:55:04.199 non-essential language on their frequencies. But There is no evidence 916 00:55:04.260 --> 00:55:07.119 that it had anything at all to do with what 917 00:55:07.179 --> 00:55:11.300 Tuberwood was talking about, even though he went to railing 918 00:55:11.500 --> 00:55:15.530 about the airline industry. And he, of course, provided not 919 00:55:15.789 --> 00:55:18.309 one shred of evidence to his claim that a bunch 920 00:55:18.349 --> 00:55:24.929 of airline workers participate in this furry thing. And so 921 00:55:25.050 --> 00:55:28.030 on the 22nd, he gets on the Senate floor of 922 00:55:28.190 --> 00:55:32.389 all places and starts talking, talks about a furry culture, 923 00:55:32.530 --> 00:55:36.269 a rise in gender confusion. And with the pilots, he said, Lord, 924 00:55:36.329 --> 00:55:39.650 help us. It's terrifying when you think about this, that 925 00:55:39.690 --> 00:55:44.139 somebody just flying your plane might be a furry and 926 00:55:44.159 --> 00:55:49.039 just all kind of just lunacy that had nothing to 927 00:55:49.119 --> 00:55:55.159 do with anything. You know, he has a reputation as 928 00:55:55.280 --> 00:56:00.679 being the dumbest member of the Senate. And this guy 929 00:56:00.820 --> 00:56:05.550 wants to be governor. I want to address one more thing, David. 930 00:56:05.610 --> 00:56:09.489 You were talking about what's going on in the governor's 931 00:56:09.570 --> 00:56:12.250 race over there. Well, you know Trump's going to Mobile. 932 00:56:13.570 --> 00:56:19.460 There is some concern, apparently, by Alabama Republicans about a 933 00:56:19.940 --> 00:56:26.340 lack of enthusiasm and about turnout, which was obviously just anemic, 934 00:56:26.869 --> 00:56:30.130 like 5% in some places over there in the primary, 935 00:56:30.469 --> 00:56:34.769 and they hope a Trump rally can boost turnout and 936 00:56:34.809 --> 00:56:40.489 help their candidates, including him. So that's what all this 937 00:56:40.610 --> 00:56:43.920 craziness was about, and he just looked like a fool 938 00:56:43.980 --> 00:56:48.340 and provided great grist for the late-night comics and others. 939 00:56:50.079 --> 00:56:52.000 Yeah, and you kind of alluded to that next thing 940 00:56:52.119 --> 00:56:55.380 is the governor's race there. 941 00:56:56.420 --> 00:56:56.619 Right. 942 00:56:57.079 --> 00:57:00.360 You know, Alabama's a pretty Republican state. The last time 943 00:57:00.400 --> 00:57:08.030 they've elected a Democratic governor was 1998 with– his name's 944 00:57:08.110 --> 00:57:10.829 even escaping me, but I remember he was a big 945 00:57:10.929 --> 00:57:12.650 pro– Siegelman. 946 00:57:13.690 --> 00:57:14.730 Governor Siegelman. 947 00:57:15.289 --> 00:57:17.510 He won, and I think they've had a few wins 948 00:57:17.590 --> 00:57:21.440 here and there, little Jim Folsom. won a statewide office. 949 00:57:21.500 --> 00:57:25.139 I think Roy Sparks stayed in office a lot longer. 950 00:57:25.460 --> 00:57:28.360 But by and large, pretty Republican state. They have two 951 00:57:28.420 --> 00:57:32.949 Republican senators, the other which Katie Britt at least has 952 00:57:32.969 --> 00:57:38.110 the good sense not to talk about furries. Therefore, you 953 00:57:38.190 --> 00:57:42.590 have this race that shouldn't be close, but in a 954 00:57:42.769 --> 00:57:46.789 cycle like this, with a candidate that you have to 955 00:57:46.869 --> 00:57:51.730 know that everybody outside of the hardcore Republicans know is 956 00:57:51.989 --> 00:57:55.429 not the best and brightest that they can put out. 957 00:57:55.809 --> 00:57:58.489 It might honestly be the best and brightest or not 958 00:57:58.530 --> 00:58:01.670 the best and brightest that Florida puts out, because he's 959 00:58:01.710 --> 00:58:06.849 got some residency issues. Apparently, his homestead exemption is in Florida. 960 00:58:07.150 --> 00:58:09.130 So there's a lot of different things that could make 961 00:58:09.170 --> 00:58:12.769 this race possibly closer. And then we see that Donald Trump, 962 00:58:12.829 --> 00:58:15.619 as they've lined up some rallies, And I will say 963 00:58:15.980 --> 00:58:18.920 the rallies are in Oklahoma. Now there's rumors of some 964 00:58:19.019 --> 00:58:22.699 Florida rallies. And, Wendy, I want to ask you, is 965 00:58:22.739 --> 00:58:25.670 this more of a sign that Alabama could really be 966 00:58:25.730 --> 00:58:29.949 in play, or is it just they want to give 967 00:58:30.530 --> 00:58:34.090 Donald Trump some layup rallies, like let's send him to 968 00:58:34.199 --> 00:58:37.679 states where we know Republicans will win and he can 969 00:58:37.860 --> 00:58:40.940 claim he was the magic X factor? Which one do 970 00:58:40.960 --> 00:58:41.500 you think it is? 971 00:58:43.130 --> 00:58:47.400 I think they don't want to send him to States 972 00:58:47.559 --> 00:58:50.119 where they are suddenly closer than they ought to be, 973 00:58:52.079 --> 00:58:56.059 which is, you know, a corollary to your second theory 974 00:58:56.099 --> 00:59:00.280 there

of, you know, just let him go someplace nice 975 00:59:00.360 --> 00:59:02.789 and sweet where people will still cheer for him and 976 00:59:02.889 --> 00:59:04.349 he might can fill up an arena. 977 00:59:07.690 --> 00:59:08.530 That's my thinking. 978 00:59:08.590 --> 00:59:12.269 I mean, he, like some people have figured out that 979 00:59:12.409 --> 00:59:16.340 an approval rating below 30%. 980 00:59:15.030 --> 00:59:17.719 Is not good. And that's not who you want to 981 00:59:17.760 --> 00:59:19.019 bring to your state. 982 00:59:20.619 --> 00:59:20.860 Yeah. 983 00:59:20.960 --> 00:59:24.480 Yeah. I mean, we'll see. It's going to be interesting 984 00:59:24.500 --> 00:59:27.679 because if this wave is as massive as people are 985 00:59:27.719 --> 00:59:32.519 talking about it, and you have such a candidate quality disparity, 986 00:59:33.219 --> 00:59:36.210 you could see an Alabama in play if turnout is 987 00:59:36.269 --> 00:59:39.630 depressed and everything else. And that would be a bit 988 00:59:39.670 --> 00:59:43.230 of a shocker. But, I mean, it could be. And honestly, 989 00:59:43.250 --> 00:59:47.730 you know, we've seen states like Matt Bevin in Kentucky 990 00:59:47.769 --> 00:59:49.860 where he was such a Republican state, but he was 991 00:59:49.969 --> 00:59:54.480 such a bad governor, he lost his reelection campaign. We 992 00:59:54.579 --> 01:00:01.519 saw in Kansas, Chris Kovach. He was so toxic that 993 01:00:02.099 --> 01:00:05.260 they elected a Democrat. And I think even if somehow 994 01:00:05.320 --> 01:00:09.559 Tommy Tuberville gets in there, if he doesn't hire a 995 01:00:09.599 --> 01:00:11.840 lot of people that know what they're doing and just 996 01:00:12.000 --> 01:00:15.780 stay out of the way, I guess put it on autopilot, 997 01:00:15.860 --> 01:00:18.190 so to speak. But if he carries on and does 998 01:00:18.230 --> 01:00:22.090 a lot of his routine like this first thing, he 999 01:00:22.170 --> 01:00:25.559 could put a state in Alabama on. in play, even 1000 01:00:25.599 --> 01:00:29.400 in a more Republican year, just because he's so overmatched 1001 01:00:29.420 --> 01:00:29.960 for the job. 1002 01:00:30.219 --> 01:00:30.510 Tim? 1003 01:00:30.840 --> 01:00:34.090 Let me remind y'all of something, Alabama. 1004 01:00:35.670 --> 01:00:39.349 What happened in the special election over there in the U.S. 1005 01:00:39.389 --> 01:00:42.230 Senate race, Roy Moore. 1006 01:00:42.489 --> 01:00:46.199 Was just such a horrible candidate. 1007 01:00:47.619 --> 01:00:51.719 That we had an upset. And who beat him? 1008 01:00:52.099 --> 01:00:55.420 Well, the guy that's running for governor as a Democrat 1009 01:00:55.500 --> 01:00:59.519 right now. I think there might be a little something 1010 01:01:00.019 --> 01:01:03.000 to this rally the troops story. 1011 01:01:03.010 --> 01:01:04.550 Of Trump going over there. 1012 01:01:05.650 --> 01:01:09.730 I think their internal polling might be showing this race 1013

01:01:10.150 --> 01:01:14.329 as being pretty close because we really ran the best 1014 01:01:14.449 --> 01:01:19.090 candidate we could run. And they are running possibly the 1015 01:01:19.130 --> 01:01:20.110 worst candidate. 1016 01:01:20.460 --> 01:01:21.619 That they could find. 1017 01:01:22.469 --> 01:01:25.690 And in this toxic atmosphere, it's got to make it 1018 01:01:25.730 --> 01:01:27.650 a close race, doesn't it, David? 1019 01:01:28.530 --> 01:01:30.829 Yeah, I mean, you said for years now you can't 1020 01:01:30.869 --> 01:01:35.760 beat somebody with nobody. Well, we picked the somebody, the 1021 01:01:35.800 --> 01:01:39.059 last guy to win a statewide race. And, you know, 1022 01:01:39.099 --> 01:01:44.139 he ran against a really toxic candidate, but Tommy Tuberville's 1023 01:01:44.179 --> 01:01:47.489 a different kind of toxic. He doesn't have the the 1024 01:01:47.710 --> 01:01:53.369 baggage that Roy Moore had in the past, but he's 1025 01:01:53.590 --> 01:01:57.409 so unfit for the job as far as qualifications. I mean, 1026 01:01:57.869 --> 01:02:01.550 I tell my students in class, people need to look 1027 01:02:01.630 --> 01:02:05.559 at voting for candidates like hiring a job. You look 1028 01:02:05.599 --> 01:02:09.780 at a resume, you do the interview, you see the qualifications. 1029 01:02:10.340 --> 01:02:14.099 If you put all the people in Alabama up, I 1030 01:02:14.139 --> 01:02:17.210 just don't think Tommy Tuberville will make it past the 1031 01:02:17.250 --> 01:02:20.070 first cut. And that's cut, say, a quarter of the 1032 01:02:20.110 --> 01:02:23.309 state out. Because one, he might be in Florida when 1033 01:02:23.329 --> 01:02:26.829 it happened, but he's just not up for the job. 1034 01:02:27.030 --> 01:02:29.909 And I'm not saying this is all Republicans are not 1035 01:02:29.949 --> 01:02:33.929 up for the job. Their current governor, Kay Ivey, understands 1036 01:02:34.050 --> 01:02:39.090 things about governing. Katie Britt understands things about governing. Tommy 1037 01:02:39.110 --> 01:02:40.090 Tuberville doesn't. 1038 01:02:40.949 --> 01:02:41.340 Right. 1039 01:02:41.360 --> 01:02:42.179 Right. 1040 01:02:42.980 --> 01:02:43.219 Yeah. 1041 01:02:43.480 --> 01:02:45.840 Well, Wendy, do you want the last word on this 1042 01:02:45.900 --> 01:02:47.079 or anything else to add? 1043 01:02:49.340 --> 01:02:53.579 Yeah, go Dougie. Let's have some Dougie Fresh. You know, 1044 01:02:53.639 --> 01:02:57.320 he's doing the grassroots thing. He's got social media going, 1045 01:02:57.840 --> 01:03:00.809 and he happens to be a great human being, and 1046 01:03:01.929 --> 01:03:04.210 maybe that can matter. Yeah. 1047 01:03:04.639 --> 01:03:10.610 Hey, pollsters, don't poll Pennsylvania again. Poll Alabama's governor. Don't 1048 01:03:10.670 --> 01:03:14.849 do the umpteenth poll of Texas. Texas is fascinating, but 1049 01:03:14.869 --> 01:03:18.389 we don't need three polls every other day. Poll Alabama. 1050 01:03:18.409 --> 01:03:20.789 Let's see if there's any smoke here and see what's 1051 01:03:20.829 --> 01:03:24.260 going on. Well, thanks again to Dr. Rachel Bitticoff for 1052 01:03:24.280 --> 01:03:27.039 coming on the show. And next week, we're excited about 1053 01:03:27.099 --> 01:03:29.840 our guest, somebody we hadn't had in a while, but man, 1054 01:03:29.860 --> 01:03:34.510 do we still get downloads on this show. This guest, 1055 01:03:34.889 --> 01:03:38.300 Sherry Jacobus, is going to be our guest next week 1056 01:03:38.400 --> 01:03:41.780 on the show talking about the upcoming elections. Until then, 1057 01:03:41.800 --> 01:03:42.659 it's been the Kudzu Vine. 1058 01:03:43.789 --> 01:03:44.510 Good night, guys. 1059 01:03:45.610 --> 01:03:46.150 Night, everybody. 1060 01:03:46.170 --> 01:03:47.150 Night.