TRANSKRIP 🔗
00:00:06
Speaker 1: Welcome back in everybody to GM territory. Jim, we're going to talk about free agents today. It's an exciting free agent class, especially when it comes to the pitching side of things. But before we start with the labor talks going on right now, how is this going to affect free agency?
00:00:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great question. I think the only way I would know the answer is kind of look back at the last CBA negotiations to see what happened during that time. And it was interesting because We did have some free agents that wanted to sign quickly and swiftly before the agreement was made. And then we had other free agents that basically didn't sign until the end of January or into February. And so I really don't know. I think one of the big questions is how are the labor negotiations going? Does it look like there's going to be a cap? Does it look like there's going to be a penalty for the highest payroll teams? Because that could affect the superstar pitchers, the very best pitchers. That could affect how their contracts look. But I do think you're going to see some guys that sign early. As an example, I think someone like Freddie Peralta, who has really pitched well at the end of the season, has brought back his value, Tampa Bay, after trading for him at the deadline, has resurrected his career. And someone like that, if he gets a really good offer early on, might want to grab it. So I guess my answer is I'm guessing it's going to be mixed. We'll see some guys that sign quick and other guys that are going to probably wait until after the labor negotiations are done.
00:01:34
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:01:35
Speaker 1: Speaking about, you know, when it comes to this pitching class, Tarek Skubal is going to headline this class.
00:01:42
Speaker 3: No doubt about it. Where do you see tear it going.
00:01:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know. I mean, obviously a big market team, someone that's willing to break records. So I think, you know, obviously you look at teams like the Dodgers, the Mets, maybe the Angels with new ownership, maybe the Yankees, but I think they'll end up with one of the bigger market teams. I know he's also open to returning to Detroit, but we'll have to wait and see. It's going to be very fascinating. It's going to be fascinating to see if he gets the long-term record-breaking deal or if he does a shorter-term deal with the highest AAB we've ever seen before. you know, Scooble's coming off two Cy Young awards. He's not going to win one this year, but you know, after he had the elbow surgeries come back, he looks strong. He's an ace. We'll see how he does in October, but I do expect Trey Tarek Scooble to become the highest paid pitcher in baseball history when his contract is finalized and free agency is going to be fascinating for him as it always is with the top pitchers in every free agent market.
00:02:40
Speaker 3: Absolutely.
00:02:41
Speaker 1: And you know, Scott Boris, I have a feeling he's probably going to wait for a long time to see what the best offer is. He actually had an interesting quote talking about Elie De La Cruz of the Reds recently saying how Elie De La Cruz, he's the steak, right? You know, you're going to wait to see who wants to come and try one of the best steaks. And I thought that was a pretty funny tidbit from Scott Boris.
00:03:04
Speaker 3: So, all right.
00:03:05
Speaker 1: There's also another pitcher in this class that I really didn't know too much about, to be honest. But I did some research on this guy, Kaima Tyra. And what scouts are kind of calling him is he literally is forged in the shape of a fire hydrant. You know, he's 5'8. He can throw up to 100 miles an hour. His career in the NPB, 179 ERA, 578 innings pitched, 603 strikeouts over nine seasons. But he was mostly a reliever and closer for most of his career. Only in 2023 and 2026 has he been a full-time starter. Now, Jim, I am willing to believe that this guy is going to be a hot name, this free agency. What have you heard about him?
00:03:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've never seen him pitch in person. I have watched the video. I love the fire hydrant analogy. It just gave him a laugh. it's tremendous the strength that he gets from the bottom half of his body. He has amazing extension for a pitcher that's only 5'8. I don't get the impression he has good downward plane on that 100-mile-an-hour fastball you were talking about, but a lot of strength, but a lot of the same plane type of fastball. Foreseen top of zone, I can deliver it there at 100. I can deliver it below the knees at 100. It kind of is what you're seeing here. You know, some teams I've talked to have said they look for him as a guy that they believe can be a starter. Others have said that he'll be a back-end reliever type. You never know until you get the free agency. You know, I hate to give an opinion. I hate to rank someone like this, but I've never seen them in person. But he is a fascinating pitcher to watch, and he will be very interesting to see what he gets in free agency. By the way, he also is represented by Scott Boris and the Boris Corporation. Not just Derek Scoble. They always have a bevy or plethora of free agents. So Tyra is one of them. But he is a fascinating pitcher just because of the size, the delivery, the strength, and the fact that you can compare a human being to a fire hydrant.
00:05:11
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:05:13
Speaker 2: I just don't want to see big league players walk by and pick up their left leg when they see him.
00:05:18
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah. It would bother me, too. It would bother me, too. It's a question I have to ask.
00:05:24
Speaker 1: So when we, we've seen a lot of pitchers come over from the NPB, how, how does that factor in as a general manager when you're trying to figure out, you know, the contract to give a guy like this, like for me, like if I would think it's more of a prove it deal, right. One year, prove it, show me that you can play in this league.
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How do you go about this?
00:05:44
Speaker 2: You know, I think it used to be a lot more difficult than it is today. And I think the, The success that some of these Japanese players are having in Japan when they come to the States, it is translating, right? So we saw some Japanese players come over this year. Munataki Murakami with the White Sox basically performed the same way he did in Japan, right? Lots of home runs, lots of strikes outs, good on-base percentage. We saw Okamoto of the Blue Jays come over here. We saw that same 30 home run power we saw in Japan immediately came here and translated. And interesting, you know, a pitcher, Tetsuya Imai, with the Houston Astros came over, didn't really translate. He had a bunch of injuries. But I do think that the professional competition in Japan is now pretty similar to what it is in the States. I think it's easier to translate what a guy is going to do. This particular pitcher, though, could be a little bit more difficult over here just because of a unique, you know, delivery size. spin, those kind of things is kind of unique with this guy. So he might be a little bit more difficult. You know, when Tetsuya Imai came over with the Astros and I talked to teams, everybody was split on him. Some guys didn't like him. Some guys thought he could be a top of the rotation starters. Others saw him as just a reliever. I'm expecting the same kind of mixed, you know, scouting reports on this guy as well. So he may be a little bit more difficult to understand how it translates.
00:07:08
Speaker 3: And I think that's, you know, an important part of what spring training is all about.
00:07:12
Speaker 1: You know, I think you're going to be able to learn a lot about that guy, too, once he's actually in house and you have your staff evaluating him every single day. So I think there's something to be said about that. But, you know, hand up. I'm excited for this guy to come over to the States. I can't wait to see him pitch.
00:07:29
Speaker 2: And one more thing just to keep in mind is that You know, Murakami, Okamoto, and Imai, they didn't get aggressive offers, right? Because there were a lot of teams that really didn't know what they were getting. And I know there's a lot of GMs right now that are kicking themselves for not stepping up and doing more to land a Murakami or an Okamoto. And so that might have teams maybe change how much they're willing to bid or how much they're willing to commit. based on the fact of how much they regret not being more aggressive with the Japanese players a year ago. So that part will be fascinating as well.
00:08:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, I didn't think about that. That's a good point.
00:08:06
Speaker 1: All right, Jim, I want to move on now to two teams, right? They're going to see some players walk when it comes to free agency. I want to start with the San Diego Padres. They got some arms that we're going to see walk here. And I want to talk about this starting rotation. You know, headlining it would be Casey Mize, you know, the guy that they just traded for during the deadline. Robbie Ray is another name. And then also Michael King. What do you see the Padres doing here?
00:08:36
Speaker 2: Well, as you just mentioned, you just mentioned three fifths of their rotation. And right now they're fighting for that final wildcard spot in the National League. But imagine if you took the three starters off what they look like and what you didn't mention. mention those starters was their reliever, Adrian Morahan, who will be the best left hand and relief pitcher on the free agent market. So for the Padres, they're going to have a lot of work to do in this offseason because to lose a Michael King, Robbie Ray, Casey Mize and Adrian Morahan, I mean, that's four-thirteenths of your pitching staff, right? That's a lot of your pitching staff. So, you know, they're going to have some work to do, either trying to re-sign a couple of them or, you know, trying to replace them out there, either in free agency or through trade. So, look, this is an important October for this team while they have, you know, these pitchers because, you know, Michael King's their best starting pitcher. They traded for Mize and Ray at the deadline. And again, Morhan sets up Mason Miller, as one of the best bullpens in baseball in San Diego. Keep in mind, Trey, that's not the only team, though, that has a chance of getting hit hard in free agency. Another wildcard team, the Chicago Cubs, they're also going to get hit because two-fifths of their rotation are also free agents. And I'm talking about Clay Holmes, who they acquired from the New York Mets at the trade deadline, and left-hander Shota Imanaga. So you've got two really good starters for the Cubs, and they're going to walk. And by the way, when you and I talk about position players later, we're going to talk about two more in their starting lineup that are free agents. So both the Padres and Cubs are going to hit hard this year in free agency.
00:10:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, they absolutely will. And I want to ask you something here. If you're the Padres, we mentioned the four names. If you could keep two, what two are you trying to keep?
00:10:24
Speaker 2: Michael King and Adrian Moran, without a doubt. Michael King's the best starting pitcher they have. I love the makeup. He loves San Diego, pitches great at Petco. And Moran is just so valuable. I mean, part of the reason why the Padres, if they make the playoffs, is going to be because they have the best bullpen in the National League and the deepest one. Moran plays a big role there. It's just going to be hard to keep him because there's going to be teams that are going to want him as closers. And by the way, speaking of closers, This free agent pitching market also is going to have two elite closers, both of whom we're going to see in the postseason, right? New York Yankees closer David Bednar, who was such a great closer with the Pirates, has come over and
been able to handle it in the Bronx, in New York, in the big market. He's going to be the most sought-after closer on the market. And Russell Iglesias, he might be 36 years old, but all Iglesias does is just lock down games for the Atlanta Braves. So it's going to be fun to see Bednar and Iglesias pitching in October, and it'll be interesting to see. where they land in November. Also, before we go on to position players, I did want to talk about a couple of left-handed starting pitchers who I think have a chance to be two of the best undervalued free agent starters in this year's class, and that's Foster Griffin and the Cleveland Guardians. You know, this past offseason, the Washington Nationals president, Paul DeBone, did a great job in signing Griffin to a one-year, $ 5. 5 million deal. In fact, the best undervalued free agent signing of the offseason, He couldn't get him extended in July, so we traded him to the Guardians. But I think he's going to do really well in free agency. I think he's young. I think he's really figured it out. He's a really solid mid-rotation starter. And also Trevor Rogers, the Baltimore Orioles, another left-hander. So those are two lefties to keep in mind, Foster Griffin and Trevor Rogers, in free agency. And by the way, the class also has guys like Nick Martinez, Kevin Gosman, Shane Bieber. We mentioned Freddy Peralta, so... You know, we just went over some 16 really good names in this free agent pitching class. It's going to be fascinating to see where they all end up.
00:12:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to be fascinating for sure. I do want to just have one little take here. I almost, and this is a question that, you know, I've talked about with you before in the past. Is it more important when you are managing a big league team to have two top arms in your rotation or a top arm and a really good reliever. Because we were talking about the Padres with Morhan and then keeping King compared to King and Mize. Like for me, I think I'd rather have King and Mize on the team and let Morhan walk. Even though that's a lot of talent, I just feel like I can find something else elsewhere, especially still having Mason Miller in the back of my bullpen.
00:13:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think I like Morhan more than you do. And his value and just the fact he's able to, you know, pitch and participate in three out of every five games that I play instead of one out of every five. So helping me win those other games that are started. So I want the most talent. That's how I would answer it. So I would pick top two starters if I thought the second starter was better than the reliever that you're giving an example. Like with the Padres, if you ask me what two pitchers you want, I want King and Mason Miller. Those are the two. But I do value more on extremely high. I like Casey Mize. I like Robbie Ray a lot. I do. in their rotation. I think they're very solid starters. Morhan, though, has been a difference maker for San Diego. And
without him, I don't know where they'd be, except for the fact I know they'd be outside of the playoffs looking in. Okay, before we go any further, we've got a break for this ad. And while we do, please hit the subscribe button, hit the like button. And when Trey and I come back, we're going to talk about the position player for the agents in this year's class.
00:14:07
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00:14:18
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00:14:30
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00:14:31
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00:15:08
Speaker 3: All righty, everyone.
00:15:09
Speaker 1: It's now time to go over the pending position players in this upcoming free agent class. Jim, I want to start out with Jazz Chisholm. What can you tell us about Jazz?
00:15:20
Speaker 2: You know, Jazz has had a down year, and there's no question he has a lot of talent. When he got to spring training, he told the world, I'm going to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bags, and I'm going to make $ 350 million. Well, none of that's gonna happen, okay? He had a down year, unfortunately, but he's still gonna end up probably with 20 homers and 40 stolen bases. Right now, he's on the injured list, not his fault. This has not been a good year. It's one of his worst slash lines of his career, and that's gonna hurt him in free agency. And I think the big question is, will someone give him that long-term deal with enough dollars to make it work for him? Or is it more likely he signs a shorter-term deal with opt-out clauses. Contracts like Bo Bichette of the Mets and Cody Bellinger of the Yankees signed a year ago. And I think that's more likely for Chaz so that he can prove it. Go back out there and hit up to his standards. And I think if that happens, his contract will be much better than what it's going to be this offseason. He has played well at second base. Not as consistent as you'd like, but he makes some flashy plays. And he's done well in New York City, right? He brings energy, he brings swag to the ballpark every single day. has been a really good
teammates well-liked inside that Yankee clubhouse. And it's been able to handle the bright lights of New York. So look, I think he's going to do well, but I think it's going to be a shorter term deal, higher AV AAV, and then opt outs and then deal with it after that.
00:16:45
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:16:45
Speaker 1: With jazz, especially, you know, he's hitting one 89 this year with runners and scoring position. That's not going to get you paid $ 300 million. However, As you mentioned before, you know, he's a, he's a confident guy and I like that. I want that kind of player in my clubhouse without a doubt. Let's now switch gears and talk about Randy Rosarena. He's having an awesome year in Seattle.
00:17:10
Speaker 2: Best year of his career.
00:17:11
Speaker 6: Really?
00:17:12
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, 20 homers and 20 stolen bases. Again, I think it's six straight years now that he's been able to accomplish that, which is amazing. Very consistent player. but this year he's been better slash lines. The best of his career. He's been getting on base offensively. It's got 23 home runs. Um, had a one over the weekend. That was a big one. Um, and the big question though, is the defensive part of his game, which has not been great in left field. He does make some highlight films cause he makes some highlight plays, but he's a below average defender in left field, but he's going to do extremely well in free agency. you know, we saw at the trade deadline, how teams overpaid prospects to trade for right-hand hitting power, which is just, it's very thin in the game. There's not an inventory of it. And because of Rosarena is going to provide 20 to 25 homers and 20 to 25 stolen bases year in and year out, not only is he going to get paid, but I think he's going to end up doing extremely well in free agency and maybe even get overpaid because of what he brings to the table with his power. I would like to see him to go to go to a team that has a band box to improve, you know, on the number. Cause I think it could be 30, 30, to be honest. I think Philadelphia, the Phillies would be a really good spot for him this off season. I think the Cincinnati Reds would be a good location for him. We'll see how much Seattle respects and honors him in free agency and tries to, you know, keep them in a long-term deal. But I think he's going to be a very fascinating free agent in this class and Because I think Trey, he's going to get overpaid by somebody just because of the power, right-handed power and the speed combination he brings to the table.
00:18:51
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00:18:59
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00:19:23
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00:19:26
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00:20:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's kind of interesting, right? Say a Suzuki in right field produces the home runs. He's a big bat. It hits ball in ballpark, drives runs in. He's really improved defensively in right field as well. He's an impact player. He would be the priority for me if I were in the front office of the Cubs and trying to retain him. But I also, look, I love what Ian Happ has been able to do. Four consecutive gold gloves in left field. And he's another player like a Rosarena and Jazz Chisholm that produces 20 homers and 20 steals year in and year out at a pretty consistent pace. His slash line is down this year. I'm not that concerned about it. Really good defender. So these are very important elements of the Chicago Cubs club in the corner outfield. They traded away one of their best corner outfield prospects in the offseason, Owen Casey, in that deal for Edward Cabrera with the Miami Marlins. So they don't have him, which means to me they have to sign at least one of the two. They do have another corner outfield prospect in Kevin Alcantara. They also have Matt Shaw. Both would be candidates to replace if one of the two were to leave as well. But, you know, look, I mean, this is a playoff team, and I think these two guys are extremely important on both sides of the ball, offensively and defensively. So free agency is going to be fascinating with the Chicago Cubs because, as we mentioned earlier when we talked about the free agent pitchers, They also have Clay Holmes. They also showed Imanaga that are free agents as well. So a lot of free agents on the Chicago Cubs team. So after this postseason is over, the front office has a lot of work to do to try to retain their own players, let alone try to make this team better.
00:21:39
Speaker 1: If you had to pick between Suzuki and Happ, which one are you keeping?
00:21:44
Speaker 2: I'm going with Suzuki.
I'm going with the power guy. But again, they both bring different things to the table, and they're both very important parts of the team. But I would lean Suzuki.
00:21:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to lean half. And the reason I'm leaning half is the four gold gloves. That's very, very hard to do at this level. I know he's having a down year, but in a down year, he still has hit over 20 home runs.
00:22:08
Speaker 3: So I like Ian Happ.
00:22:10
Speaker 1: He went to actually the University of Cincinnati just right down the street from where I'm from. And yeah, so I might have a little bias there. All right, we also have some catchers that are going to be available in the offseason. Tyler Stevenson is one that I'm excited to see what kind of contract he gets.
00:22:28
Speaker 3: Are there any others out there?
00:22:30
Speaker 2: Brian Jeffers of the Minnesota Twins would be the other. So I think those are the two best catchers. Carson Kelly Cubs would be the third one. So no, there's not an all-star caliber catcher out there, but there are three quality catchers that will do, they'll do okay in free agency. You know, I think with Jeffers and Stevenson, they might be looked at more as platoon type catchers, to be honest, for contending teams. And maybe the same thing with Kelly as well. But again, solid catchers in every team needs catching. The other thing we should look at in this free agent class of position players is a couple of guys that are having really good years and maybe taking their game to the next level. And I'm talking about first baseman outfielder Jake Bowers of the Milwaukee Brewers and Louis Arai is the second baseman of the Philadelphia Phillies. You know, Bowers going to hit 25 to 30 home runs when this season is finally over. That's an incredible year for him. He's done a lot of adjustments with his swing, has really bought into the analytics and technology that's been available to him. He's become a really good player, and I think he's going to be a very fascinating free agent based on the year that he's had. And the other player is Luis Arias, who has a chance to win his fourth batting title with four different teams, which is amazing. But the most important part of Luis Arias is his improvements defensively at second base, and a lot of credit goes to Ron Washington, the coach of the Giants, who had him in the first half of the year before he got traded to the Phillies, he worked with him, and Arise has kept getting better and better defensively. So this is a really great news, I think, for Arise when it gets to free agency. The one downside of Arise, besides the fact that he doesn't strike out and he puts the ball in play and he wins batting titles, but what he doesn't bring to the table is power, speed, and those two things has prevented him from getting that long-term contract that he's always been looking for. But he doesn't have the power. He doesn't have the speed. But now that he's a good defender to go along with being able to win batting titles, I think his value is going to be better than it's been in prior years. So those are two interesting guys. I want to throw in a few infielders, too, and get your take on them. The infield class isn't great, but there are some guys. Brandon Lau of the Pirates, left-hand power hitter. Glaber Torres, second baseman of the Tigers, an Alec Boehm, the first baseman, third baseman of the Phillies. What's your take on those three guys, Trey?
00:24:50
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, I'm loving Brandon Lau. He's had an unreal season. You see on the screen here, he's going to hit 30 home runs. He's hitting above 250, which actually he's on pace to have a better batting average this season than last season. So I'm excited for Brandon Lau. I think there's going to be a really good market for Lau out there. And then, you know, when it comes to some of these other players that you just mentioned, yeah, Look, Alec Boehm, I think he needs a change of scenery. And I think the Phillies probably want him to have a change of scenery as well. It's kind of been, I don't want to say a love-hate relationship in Philly. But listen, there's been some ups and downs with him in the fan base there. And, you know, although he's really been producing, you know, off and on, I think it's time for a change for sure.
00:25:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good call. I like that. There's also some good defensive center fielders that will be on the open market. Trent Grisham of the Yankees, Dalton Varshow of the Astros. Offensively, some questions around them, but pretty solid players. And then you've got a couple of power bats as well. Taylor Ward of the Mariners started the year with the Orioles, had a down year in terms of power, but the year before hit 30 plus. And of course, the veteran George Springer, who has been a very solid DH there for the Toronto Blue Jays. I would guess that he would stay in Toronto and try to sign a shorter-term deal. But that's basically the position class. What's your take overall of the free agent class, and what's your take of both the pitching and position player classes, Dre?
00:26:21
Speaker 3: Oh, man.
00:26:21
Speaker 1: My overall take, I'd say this is a pitcher-dominant class. I think that's really what we're looking at when we see this free agent class in general. More dominant arms and dominant hitters, but It's going to be exciting for agency, for sure. I'm excited to see, obviously, what happens after the labor talks, you know, when we see these guys sign.
00:26:42
Speaker 3: And, you know, will it be earlier? Will it be later? But overall, this will be an exciting winter.
00:26:49
Speaker 2: No doubt.
00:26:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, no doubt about it. All right, everyone.
00:26:52
Speaker 1: Well, hey, that's going to do it for this edition of GM Territory. Happy week one to all the NFL fans out there.
00:26:59
Speaker 3: Go Bills. Go Cowboys. Challenge relax.
00:27:02
Speaker 2: We gone.