#159: Market Wizard Lance Breitstein: Not Impossible, Just Improbable의 전체 녹취록

of got the process right? 00:04:44.319 --> 00:04:46.480 Was it a sort of a trade entry type thing? 00:04:46.639 --> 00:04:54.240 What was what was there a mechanism that became that began to evolve that was your thing that then started to make sense for you? 00:04:54.480 --> 00:04:54.800 Yep. 00:04:54.959 --> 00:05:00.160 So my my boss was just an absolute savant with technical analysis. 00:05:00.319 --> 00:05:13.680 He had done all the work to study every single detail, and he would have notebooks and notebooks full of chart write-ups with every little thing labeled, bar A versus the size of bar B versus bar C and D, uh, the volume labeled. 00:05:13.839 --> 00:05:20.560 So he was looking at this with nuances that most people don't even bother to look at and all this attention to detail. 00:05:20.639 --> 00:05:22.079 And he was teaching us that. 00:05:22.319 --> 00:05:29.199 But part of the issue was it was just so much information overload when you're just a 21-year-old kid trying to learn stocks. 00:05:29.279 --> 00:05:30.399 It was just a lot. 00:05:30.639 --> 00:05:41.680 And so then ultimately what happens is you might understand the basics of something and you're missing all these nuances, but then you you start hesitating, you start second guessing. 00:05:41.839 --> 00:05:46.800 So if the level is at 50 bucks, you're scared to buy$50 and one cent. 00:05:47.120 --> 00:05:50.720 So then instead of buying$50 and one cent, you wait for it. 00:05:50.800 --> 00:05:52.079 Oh man, is this a good setup? 00:05:52.160 --> 00:05:52.639 Was this good? 00:05:52.720 --> 00:05:53.040 I don't know. 00:05:53.120 --> 00:05:53.519 I don't know. 00:05:53.680 --> 00:05:55.040 Should I buy$50.10? 00:05:55.439 --> 00:05:57.040 I don't know,$50.20, I don't know. 00:05:57.199 --> 00:06:02.480 Then eventually, once it goes to$50 and 50 cents, you're like, oh wow, this is a good setup. 00:06:02.560 --> 00:06:03.360 I should be buying this. 00:06:03.439 --> 00:06:12.879 And you buy it 50-50, exactly when it then pulls back and has a little bit of a correction, which is exactly where you hit out rather than giving it the proper stop below 50. 00:06:13.199 --> 00:06:21.040 So everything you do in markets, I think as an amateur, is emotionally designed to make you do the wrong decision. 00:06:21.360 --> 00:06:23.920 And I would see my boss do the right decision. 00:06:24.079 --> 00:06:26.800 I would then do the exact opposite wrong decision. 00:06:26.959 --> 00:06:41.759 And after enough times of getting yelled at by my boss and making these mistakes, you slowly start to mold your lens and your viewpoint, uh, your perspective of these charts closer towards the correct way of thinking and looking at these things. 00:06:41.920 --> 00:06:47.600 And eventually you say, after maybe like a year of getting yelled at and doing awful decisions, you know what? 00:06:47.680 --> 00:06:51.680 I think I'm just gonna try buying this at 5001 and and see if it works. 00:06:51.839 --> 00:06:57.439 And then you start to get the positive feedback, and life life starts to get a little bit easier for you. 00:06:58.319 --> 00:06:59.680 Okay, that's fantastic. 00:06:59.759 --> 00:07:04.000 And uh, Lance from from me, Steve, welcome to the uh the podcast. 00:07:04.160 --> 00:07:12.800 And uh as I said just before, we started that uh we've had a lot of people, a lot of uh listeners over the years ask to have you on the podcast. 00:07:12.879 --> 00:07:14.720 So it's great to finally get there. 00:07:14.879 --> 00:07:18.399 Um, I know you had a couple of projects in the time, and then you had the book, of course. 00:07:18.639 --> 00:07:21.199 So um this this was quite apt. 00:07:21.839 --> 00:07:32.079 Um you know, I there was something you said, there's a few things you said which um which I really want to just just sort of zoom into. 00:07:32.560 --> 00:07:37.040 First of all, you you talked about finding a way there, and it was kind of persistence. 00:07:37.600 --> 00:07:43.680 Um, and and and in as I say to people, you know, learning trading, it's a multi-year journey. 00:07:44.000 --> 00:07:44.319 Okay. 00:07:45.040 --> 00:07:55.360 Um you mentioned something else, and it was very clear in the book about that was about being the hardest worker, um, out competing everyone. 00:07:55.759 --> 00:08:01.040 Um outcompeting people in a world where everyone is super competitive, by the way. 00:08:01.360 --> 00:08:05.040 Okay, but you were gonna work harder than everyone else. 00:08:05.279 --> 00:08:11.680 Now, I I was thinking before this podcast came on, you know, what will our listeners be looking for? 00:08:11.839 --> 00:08:19.120 Will they be looking for Lance to give some sort of super indicator that oh my god, that's what I've got to need to do, you know, some sort of technical side. 00:08:19.199 --> 00:08:22.399 You've got to buy here in future, you've got to be willing to sell here. 00:08:22.560 --> 00:08:24.399 But you kind of have by the way. 00:08:24.480 --> 00:08:27.120 You you when you see the signal, you buy it. 00:08:27.279 --> 00:08:29.439 If you wait for confirmation, you're dead. 00:08:29.680 --> 00:08:29.920 Okay. 00:08:30.720 --> 00:08:34.960 That was one of the things which is which is you know, classic mistake, which everyone makes. 00:08:35.039 --> 00:08:39.200 And you know, as a trader back in the years, I used to own that particular mistake. 00:08:39.440 --> 00:08:45.279 Um, but it it's it's the human side that I'm interested there. 00:08:45.759 --> 00:08:55.759 Okay, because a lot of the people that I see who succeed, you know, technically they're not necessarily better than other people, but it's they did something like you did. 00:08:55.840 --> 00:08:56.879 They worked harder. 00:08:56.960 --> 00:09:01.840 People don't realize the importance of hard work, and everyone thinks they work hard. 00:09:02.240 --> 00:09:09.759 But I see these people who make it, and to them they just do something different, they work

that much harder. 00:09:09.840 --> 00:09:14.000 It's a it's a it I call trading a performance game, okay? 00:09:14.159 --> 00:09:17.519 And it's it's it's like being a marathon runner, okay? 00:09:18.000 --> 00:09:31.279 The marathon runner who trains I don't know how many hours a marathon runner trains a week, but say the average marrow marathon runner trains 20 hours a week, and then there's one guy who does 40 hours a week. 00:09:32.639 --> 00:09:38.000 The odds of them succeeding are so much, so much higher. 00:09:38.399 --> 00:09:38.720 Okay. 00:09:39.279 --> 00:09:44.080 It it we see this in in in you know in in music, in theatre, in comedy. 00:09:44.240 --> 00:09:50.240 The bands that practice and practice and keep going more than anyone else, eventually it comes together. 00:09:50.320 --> 00:09:52.799 That was the story of the Beatles, you know. 00:09:53.120 --> 00:09:55.759 Um, you see it with with comedians. 00:09:55.840 --> 00:10:14.320 I I remember reading about um some of the great comedians, and they went years and years without succeeding, but they persisted and they worked harder than anyone else, and they look they worked through the drawdowns as a comedian, that the sort of comedian drawdown, the the empty rooms and the boos and the hisses and the no one laughing. 00:10:14.559 --> 00:10:17.200 And they kept going and they kept coming back, the persistence. 00:10:17.279 --> 00:10:20.639 And I think you mentioned the word persistence there as well. 00:10:21.600 --> 00:10:22.799 These are the bits, you know. 00:10:23.919 --> 00:10:26.799 For me, I want you to tell that story today. 00:10:27.440 --> 00:10:31.279 You know, not the technical story so much, the human story. 00:10:31.679 --> 00:10:38.240 And I know there's a lot to your human story because you also came for a tough background as well, growing up, a tough family background. 00:10:38.399 --> 00:10:46.559 Again, we do hear that from a lot of people who make it, that you know there's no what do you call it, there's there's no safety net. 00:10:47.200 --> 00:10:47.600 Yeah. 00:10:47.759 --> 00:10:54.240 Well, I I kind of think of performance and stuff like this kind of across three pillars. 00:10:54.480 --> 00:10:58.159 You have your natural talent and proclivity at something. 00:10:58.320 --> 00:11:01.200 So, for example, I was never gonna be a basketball player, right? 00:11:01.279 --> 00:11:05.360 I'm like a foot shy of ever standing a chance of being a basketball player. 00:11:05.440 --> 00:11:06.559 It's just not gonna happen. 00:11:06.720 --> 00:11:08.639 Um, so you've got your natural talent, right? 00:11:08.720 --> 00:11:18.559 So some people just you know, you find out with with Michael Phelps, oh my god, his body was just ultimately designed uh for swimming, but he also did all this other stuff. 00:11:18.720 --> 00:11:27.840 It's your natural proclivity, it's how hard you're gonna work, like just how many hours, and then how effective those hours are, right? 00:11:28.159 --> 00:11:32.799 So no matter how much I work at basketball, I just know it's just never gonna happen. 00:11:32.879 --> 00:11:34.960 I am never going to be in the NBA. 00:11:35.120 --> 00:11:42.639 Um now you mentioned that, Lance, you are competing in a world where there is a lot of competitive people. 00:11:42.879 --> 00:11:53.759 And what I've learned in life is most people actually aren't all that competitive and actually aren't all that fully invested in things. 00:11:54.000 --> 00:12:05.440 And so at Trillium, you're surrounded by people that come from Ivy League schools that were top of their class, that were uh, you know, D1 athletes, top chess player, poker player, video game player. 00:12:05.600 --> 00:12:08.080 You find people that are all from their best thing. 00:12:08.240 --> 00:12:14.639 Um, but the amount of people that truly, truly push themselves all in out of craft is so small. 00:12:14.799 --> 00:12:20.559 And I think even in the NBA, like you hear about what LeBron and Kobe did and what Steph Curry do. 00:12:20.720 --> 00:12:23.759 Like, even on the work ethic, they are the exceptions. 00:12:23.919 --> 00:12:30.399 They're the exceptions on the work ethic, but also in how effective their time is used and their natural talent too, to some degree. 00:12:30.559 --> 00:12:33.600 You know, there's there's only so many LeBron body types out there. 00:12:33.840 --> 00:12:43.120 And so, like, I think a lot of people think they're working hard, but their definition of hard is so different from my definition. 00:12:43.200 --> 00:12:46.320 And I trained a lot of people over the years, especially a Trillium. 00:12:46.399 --> 00:12:51.039 And what I learned is working hard does not mean the same thing to most people. 00:12:51.200 --> 00:12:57.440 And it's like, if you are gonna be the only one person can be the first one in and the last one out. 00:12:57.679 --> 00:13:00.799 Only one person can work the most hours per week. 00:13:00.960 --> 00:13:06.320 And it's like if you see a class of 25 people, there's inevitably got to be a distribution. 00:13:06.399 --> 00:13:08.960 There's only a couple people that are working the hardest. 00:13:09.120 --> 00:13:16.879 And even when I do my um advisory work with SB Capital, you can identify who those absolute standout workers are. 00:13:17.039 --> 00:13:18.480 So that's a big component. 00:13:18.639 --> 00:13:24.240 But then there's another thing: there's people that work really, really hard, but they're not working effectively. 00:13:24.480 --> 00:13:34.639 For example, I had um there, there was uh there was someone in the firm that I actually had had had roomed with for a little bit, and he was an extremely hard worker. 00:13:34.879 --> 00:13:39.919 He would, he would get in and and um, he was going into the New York office earlier than I was. 00:13:40.080 --> 00:13:41.600 This guy was waking up at 5 a.m. 00:13:41.759 --> 00:13:42.320 and everything. 00:13:42.480 --> 00:13:47.919

But here's the issue: he really specialized in uh trading headlines, especially pre-market. 00:13:48.080 --> 00:13:53.519 He would have great trades, but he wasn't solving his constraint of of sizing. 00:13:53.759 --> 00:14:07.360 And so it's not that he didn't work hard or any of this other stuff, but he would go in on the weekend and it was a lot of reading like research reports and uh doing doing the comfortable work that wasn't the most important work. 00:14:07.519 --> 00:14:18.080 And so many people at at Trillium or just at trading in general, you you fall victim to that, where trading is hard, failure is hard, looking at your mistakes each week is hard. 00:14:18.240 --> 00:14:28.879 And I think ultimately it's uh whatever natural proclivity you have, like if you're a total dummy, like I'm sorry, you're just not gonna be able to figure out the concepts and the nuances of of trading. 00:14:28.960 --> 00:14:32.000 It's it this is an intellectual pursuit to some degree. 00:14:32.159 --> 00:14:40.480 Um, and then to your part about upbringing, I think for many people, they don't have what I call a powerful why. 00:14:40.639 --> 00:14:41.679 Like trading is hard. 00:14:41.759 --> 00:14:43.039 You are gonna get your ass kicked. 00:14:43.120 --> 00:14:45.279 It is gonna take you years to find success. 00:14:45.519 --> 00:14:48.480 Even once you're successful, there will be ups and downs. 00:14:48.639 --> 00:14:52.080 You will never, it will never ever be easy. 00:14:52.159 --> 00:14:55.120 Like if you are looking for easy, it is the wrong job. 00:14:55.360 --> 00:15:00.559 And so that powerful why, it's that reason that drives you through the pain. 00:15:00.720 --> 00:15:10.720 When you are 12 months into the job and you feel like a dumbass, and you know, the head of HR is coming and saying, Hey, Lance, like, what's what's you know, what more can we do here? 00:15:10.879 --> 00:15:12.480 You don't seem to be making any progress. 00:15:12.639 --> 00:15:17.200 Like, we want you to make it, but you're not really, you know, making any progress. 00:15:17.360 --> 00:15:22.159 Um, what makes you persist when every sign is telling you to quit? 00:15:22.399 --> 00:15:24.720 And for me, it was my financial hunger. 00:15:24.879 --> 00:15:27.679 You know, I did not want to live the life my parents lived. 00:15:27.759 --> 00:15:29.279 I did not want to have that upbringing. 00:15:29.360 --> 00:15:32.559 I did not want to work like a dog my whole life. 00:15:32.799 --> 00:15:38.879 And so I knew that even though it was getting tough, I was just using that as fuel to keep on working harder. 00:15:39.039 --> 00:15:42.879 Because I saw my boss, my boss would make a couple hundred grand a month. 00:15:42.960 --> 00:15:45.679 He would make 10 grand in a trade, 50 grand in a trade. 00:15:45.759 --> 00:15:49.519 There would be some trades where it make hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars. 00:15:49.759 --> 00:15:54.480 And all I knew was like, holy shit, if I

can ever get there, like I need that. 00:15:54.639 --> 00:15:56.240 I need that financial security. 00:15:56.399 --> 00:16:00.399 And then when you train people, most people don't have that powerful why. 00:16:00.559 --> 00:16:04.000 It could be this uh this chip on your shoulder to prove someone wrong. 00:16:04.240 --> 00:16:07.759 It could be, oh my God, I just want to crack this puzzle. 00:16:07.919 --> 00:16:10.960 It could be, I never want to worry about money again. 00:16:11.120 --> 00:16:17.200 But if you don't have that why, I think it's impossible to teach someone or give someone that. 00:16:17.360 --> 00:16:22.320 And ultimately, uh you need it to persevere at a hard endeavor. 00:16:22.399 --> 00:16:24.159 Uh, that's that's what I think. 00:16:24.879 --> 00:16:29.279 Yeah, I I love that last last part because it is such a hard endeavor. 00:16:29.600 --> 00:16:37.039 Okay, and there is an element of get to a comfortable zone and then step back. 00:16:37.759 --> 00:16:40.720 And the ones carrying on and pushing on. 00:16:41.279 --> 00:16:47.759 I I I I happen to think that the success rate in trading at the retail level is ridiculously small. 00:16:47.919 --> 00:16:54.000 I don't take any of those numbers you see from brokers' firms where they say 10% or 20% succeed. 00:16:54.320 --> 00:17:02.480 That though those are very much um manipulated to make it sound like it's tough, but actually you've got a decent chance. 00:17:02.559 --> 00:17:07.119 You know, if you think I'm going in there and I'm gonna be one of the 10 and I'm I'm the hardest worker there. 00:17:07.599 --> 00:17:19.200 Um in the retail space, which you know most people listening to this will come from, I think it's somewhere below 1% are ever gonna make a career in trading. 00:17:19.359 --> 00:17:30.720 And of those, only uh perhaps a small fraction, um, maybe another 10% of those are gonna make really life-changing or you know, good money, and are gonna have a sustainable career making that money. 00:17:30.960 --> 00:17:34.000 And that doesn't mean that you shouldn't do it. 00:17:34.160 --> 00:17:43.119 To me, it does mean you should do it because that means that hell, actually, if you work really hard and if you get your act together, it is possible to do it. 00:17:43.200 --> 00:17:44.880 It's not luck, it's skill. 00:17:45.440 --> 00:17:57.680 But you know, like like if you wanna if there's something you really want to achieve at, some sort of sport you want to get to, and you want to play at a high level, okay, the chances of you doing it are incredibly low. 00:17:57.759 --> 00:18:02.240 But if you're really serious about it, you've got to really engage with it. 00:18:02.559 --> 00:18:06.000 All those things, you've got to have a powerful why, you've got to have a reason. 00:18:06.319 --> 00:18:12.240 You you've got to get up at ridiculous hours in the morning, five days a week, and put those miles in. 00:18:12.480 --> 00:18:14.960 You know, if you want to be a swimmer,

you're talking about Michael Ferris. 00:18:15.200 --> 00:18:18.640 He could have had the perfect body shape body, he did have the perfect body shape for it. 00:18:18.799 --> 00:18:24.319 But if he didn't put the hard the hours in, okay, he no one was gonna hear of him. 00:18:25.200 --> 00:18:29.119 You wanna know you want to know what I think is happening now, which I haven't really voiced. 00:18:29.200 --> 00:18:31.680 I've never like formally voiced this. 00:18:32.079 --> 00:18:39.039 So Trillium recruits from some of the best applicants in the country, right? 00:18:39.279 --> 00:18:45.440 Top schools, uh, people that have very standout backgrounds, they get hundreds, if not thousands, of applicants. 00:18:45.599 --> 00:18:47.039 Same for SB Capital. 00:18:47.519 --> 00:18:53.440 And so Trillium is choosing from the absolute best in the country. 00:18:53.680 --> 00:18:57.039 They're then giving them all the resources to succeed. 00:18:57.200 --> 00:19:01.839 And as a result of that, the the success rate, I mean, I mean, don't quote me on this. 00:19:01.920 --> 00:19:15.279 I don't know, never truly calculated the number, but I would say I was I was probably running when I was running in office, like we we were probably having a 25 to 30% success rate, which is pretty damn incredible versus versus the masses. 00:19:15.519 --> 00:19:37.839 And what I think is happening now, especially post-COVID, is trading has become so popular and so pervasive, and it's being marketed by influencers so deceptively, especially with the wave of funded trader programs, affiliate link sales, all that other stuff, that now guess what? 00:19:38.079 --> 00:19:48.319 Imagine if your applicant pool wasn't the best in the country, and not even the top tier of, oh my God, this person's driven, educated, they know what they're getting themselves into. 00:19:48.480 --> 00:20:00.880 What if you open it up to the universe of, hey, this is just people that want to earn a little bit extra income and you know think trading is interesting, sexy, whatever. 00:20:01.039 --> 00:20:06.559 And then you start getting them involved, especially with false expectations of what it takes to succeed. 00:20:06.799 --> 00:20:20.720 If you get influencers saying, look at all these payouts, look how easy it is, but they're not telling the true, authentic truth, you end up with a universe of applicants and people trying their hand at trading that stand absolutely no chance. 00:20:20.960 --> 00:20:29.839 So I think over the last call it five years, it's not just, oh my God, this person's naturally interested in trading, they're motivated, they self-selected to be interested in this. 00:20:30.000 --> 00:20:42.160 This is like, oh my God, applicants that are working full-time jobs with three kids, uh, you know, checking this out part-time, couple hours a week, uh, people that are thinking, oh, it's gonna take two months and I'm gonna have a green Lamborghini. 00:20:42.559 --> 00:20:54.480 When you change that as being the universe of applicants, all of a sudden, I would imagine the actual success rates of these people just plummet into the ground, like well below 1%. 00:20:55.119 --> 00:21:01.599 Because if if you're told that something is easy and hey, look, you know, look at this person getting a payout after three months. 00:21:01.759 --> 00:21:05.599 If you go in thinking, oh, beginners can do this, part-time people can do this. 00:21:05.759 --> 00:21:16.640 Uh, hey, you're you're, you know, you're you're a mom with kids and you've got a few hours a week, or you you're working this other job and you've got a few hours a week and you can do this, like, no, you can't. 00:21:16.799 --> 00:21:27.359 You can't, you know, like, yeah, like maybe one in 10,000 with enough time and multiple years of effort, but you're not gonna find long-term success in a couple months. 00:21:27.599 --> 00:21:39.599 The odds of you finding long-term success in a couple months or three to six months at an endeavor that takes multiple years of full-time work, it's it's such a fraction equivalent to zero. 00:21:39.759 --> 00:21:42.079 And so I think that's what's happening in the modern day. 00:21:42.160 --> 00:21:46.400 And that's why I try to be so vocal about what it actually takes. 00:21:46.480 --> 00:21:49.599 Um, and that doesn't, to your point, mean don't do it. 00:21:49.759 --> 00:21:59.440 It means do it if you're going into it with the realistic picture and you're saying, no, I understand the challenge ahead of me, and I still want to pursue this for the love of the game. 00:21:59.519 --> 00:22:04.319 And For the right reasons, and because I have a powerful enough why, God bless you. 00:22:04.480 --> 00:22:10.480 But for everyone else, you're just losing time and money, and you end up harmed because you're you're being sold something that's not the truth. 00:22:10.799 --> 00:22:11.519 Yeah, yeah. 00:22:11.599 --> 00:22:16.799 I I see this a lot, and you know, I um I as a coach, I get a lot of people who email me. 00:22:17.200 --> 00:22:26.799 Um, and you know, m most of them you know they don't pursue coaching, but every now and then I'll get someone who who you know who wants to take, you know, wants to have a call. 00:22:27.359 --> 00:22:42.880 And uh I'll speak to them and I'll say, you know, I don't think you've got I don't think using your money for me as a coach is is a good use of your money. 00:22:43.039 --> 00:22:47.200 You're not at a point yet where a coach is going to make any difference to you. 00:22:47.359 --> 00:22:53.119 Not not the sort of coach I am, not not someone who's helping develop poor performance to the next level. 00:22:53.359 --> 00:23:00.559 Um, I do work with some retail traders, but they're already strong retail traders and they want to move on further. 00:23:00.960 --> 00:23:05.759 But but for a lot of them, I'm saying, you know, technically you're not there. 00:23:06.000 --> 00:23:07.839 Your risk management isn't good

enough. 00:23:08.000 --> 00:23:10.400 You're you you you haven't got enough capital, even. 00:23:10.559 --> 00:23:14.480 You know, the amount of capital you're trading with, you're still playing a lottery ticket game. 00:23:14.720 --> 00:23:14.960 Okay. 00:23:15.359 --> 00:23:17.279 Uh you haven't got enough time behind you. 00:23:17.440 --> 00:23:18.480 Time is a huge thing. 00:23:18.559 --> 00:23:32.799 And if you know you're doing that, it took you two years full time, and it sounds like you were doing, you know, close close to possibly 20 hours a day sometimes, probably seven days a week, okay, of you know, all the weekend stuff as well. 00:23:33.039 --> 00:23:41.759 Um, and you've got people who are doing three, four hours in the evening, or you know, half an hour in the morning before work and then three, four hours in the evening. 00:23:42.000 --> 00:23:49.680 So it means that for them, the amount of time in the markets is two years for you, is probably close to six years for them. 00:23:50.000 --> 00:24:00.000 Okay, that that sort of learning time, the time where you can because it sounds like after two years, you're starting to connect some dots, you're starting to see things, you're starting to feel things. 00:24:00.240 --> 00:24:03.759 A life of failure for two years is starting to teach you, okay. 00:24:03.920 --> 00:24:06.319 You know, failure, as we say, as a greatest teacher. 00:24:06.480 --> 00:24:11.039 You know, you're not going to last six years of failure in this business, okay, if you haven't got the money behind it. 00:24:11.920 --> 00:24:19.519 You mentioned that because on a YouTube, on a recent YouTube video I'm I'm making, we did that math to make that exact point. 00:24:19.839 --> 00:24:26.880 And it's like the two years it took me in our equivalent, that's like eight years for someone. 00:24:27.119 --> 00:24:31.200 Nobody, nobody is surviving eight years while not profitable, you know. 00:24:31.279 --> 00:24:36.720 So it's like the math is so daunting when you do exactly the analysis you just did. 00:24:36.880 --> 00:24:39.839 And I don't think, yeah, people people are thinking that way at all. 00:24:40.160 --> 00:24:43.279 Yeah, I mean, for them it's a lottery ticket, and and that's the thing. 00:24:43.359 --> 00:24:53.440 And you know, it here's the thing is if you put the work in, you put the time in, if you're serious about this, you know, uh and I'd often say to people, look, set a plan for this, set a business plan. 00:24:53.599 --> 00:24:56.720 If you start a business, how many years is it gonna take you to be profitable? 00:24:56.799 --> 00:25:03.119 You know, the first few years you're buying, eventually you're losing money, you're recycling, you're restocking, you're borrowing money, you're funding it. 00:25:03.279 --> 00:25:15.680 Okay, it's years unless you know you've got you know, if unless you think you've got some great startup that no one else has got, you know, that's gonna make a truckload of money in in and and go public in six months' time. 00:25:15.839 --> 00:25:22.079 Okay, you're setting up a business here, you need resources, you need capital, you need time to learn it. 00:25:22.240 --> 00:25:26.160 You know, you need to fail because that's like we say, that is gonna teach you. 00:25:26.240 --> 00:25:30.000 And and I say, you know, have another income at some point along there as well. 00:25:30.240 --> 00:25:40.640 Because if you're not, um, and I know some incredible traders who made it, who lived, you know, had very supportive partners who allowed them to do the six years of learning, you know. 00:25:40.799 --> 00:25:47.119 But they said to the partner, this is gonna be a six-year learning curve, just to build some capital and start being successful. 00:25:47.200 --> 00:25:51.680 And they said, Okay, I work, you do this, and it's paid off for them. 00:25:51.839 --> 00:25:55.200 But what I'm saying is get serious about this, be real. 00:25:55.680 --> 00:26:02.160 You know, don't, you know, with some influencer there telling you could be driving a Lambeau by the end of the year, you know. 00:26:02.319 --> 00:26:03.920 I don't know what do you think, Mark? 00:26:04.000 --> 00:26:06.000 Because we hear this all the time, don't we? 00:26:07.359 --> 00:26:16.000 Yeah, I mean, I'm what concerns me is this sort of the lens that you know, people new to the market that think, oh, this is something I want to do. 00:26:16.160 --> 00:26:27.200 Uh they come in through the lens of technical analysis, which is essentially a and they'll see these charts and they'll look at these lines and my what have I bought there, I've sold there, and this seems so easy. 00:26:27.440 --> 00:26:36.799 Um, of course, that's just all historic, but I think that it will then be easier for them to make sense of that in real time going forward and find out well, it's not quite not quite so easy. 00:26:36.960 --> 00:27:01.119 So I think technicals can give a real false sense of security if you say this is the market, these are the tools, look how well it's done historically, and I think it gives people too too much of a hope that oh well I I I'll just follow this pathway, and of course, it isn't that easy, and so you do need to do this significant effort. 00:27:01.359 --> 00:27:08.000 I guess I want to go back to to the book if I made it chapter two that your work appears in. 00:27:08.240 --> 00:27:24.079 Um, something that George Coyle mentioned that he picked up about gaming, and particularly about delayed gratification as being almost a superpower that you had. 00:27:24.720 --> 00:27:29.200 And I really just like you to talk a little bit about that and what he meant by that. 00:27:29.279 --> 00:27:30.640 What does what does it mean? 00:27:30.799 --> 00:27:35.440 Um, and if you delay it, does it end up becoming a celebration at some point? 00:27:35.920 --> 00:27:42.079 But um he picks up on it because he was quite forceful in his sort of conclusion. 00:27:42.480 -->

00:27:44.160 Um what do you have to say about that? 00:27:44.480 --> 00:27:49.680 Well, I think I think for the listeners thus far, everything has sounded pretty dour, right? 00:27:49.759 --> 00:27:51.279 A lot of people fail, it's difficult. 00:27:51.440 --> 00:27:53.279 Oh my god, why am I even doing this? 00:27:53.440 --> 00:27:55.920 That might be that might be the overall feeling. 00:27:56.079 --> 00:27:56.799 But guess what? 00:27:56.880 --> 00:27:57.680 There is hope. 00:27:58.160 --> 00:28:09.440 And that hope is that concept of delayed gratification and that some really good things take time, and that if you wait, all of a sudden things can get better and better. 00:28:09.519 --> 00:28:16.000 So, for example, if I have a hundred bucks and I spend it today, I can buy a hundred dollars worth of goods. 00:28:16.160 --> 00:28:24.400 But if I take that hundred bucks and I invest it and I help build it and I compound it, next year I might be able to buy$200 worth of worth of goods. 00:28:24.559 --> 00:28:36.799 And so this concept of delayed gratification is that if we work in the near term and invest and compound for the future, in the future, we're gonna have far more resources than we otherwise would. 00:28:37.039 --> 00:28:52.880 And especially uh to what you alluded to, in video games, there's a lot of strategy games where you need to save resources, you need to compound, you need to invest in the future, knowing that your future you're gonna be way better off rather than consuming in the near term. 00:28:53.039 --> 00:28:56.799 And I think for so many endeavors in life, it's not just trading. 00:28:56.960 --> 00:29:05.039 Like we can pick trading as the vehicle, but it's really true for any performance craft and just most things in life. 00:29:05.200 --> 00:29:15.440 Like most things in life take a lot of um, take a lot of work, take a lot of investment, uh, anything you want to get good at, it's it's not just trading. 00:29:15.599 --> 00:29:23.759 If you want to be a pro athlete, think about the time investment it takes to end up on the field as a pro athlete, starting from when you're a kid. 00:29:24.000 --> 00:29:29.680 If you want to be a professional musician, think about the time investment it takes starting from a kid. 00:29:29.839 --> 00:29:35.519 If you want to be a writer, any form of artist, you are doing that for so many years. 00:29:35.759 --> 00:29:41.200 The beginner artist is making zero dollars, the beginner writer is making zero dollars. 00:29:41.359 --> 00:29:45.519 So it's not all that unusual that a beginner trader is not gonna make money. 00:29:45.599 --> 00:29:48.160 And if anything, they might be losing money. 00:29:48.400 --> 00:29:51.359 So trading is not unique in that sense. 00:29:51.519 --> 00:30:03.599 But what I would say, for as dour as it sounded about trading, the kind of amazing part is there are traders that find success in a couple years, a year or two, three years. 00:30:03.839 --> 00:30:07.279 And then the upside from trading can be phenomenal. 00:30:07.440 --> 00:30:12.000 There are traders that within a couple years, three, five years, they are making a million bucks. 00:30:12.160 --> 00:30:16.640 There are traders that over 10 years, they will make millions and millions of dollars. 00:30:16.960 --> 00:30:21.920 The learning curve for trading is actually better than many other performance endeavors. 00:30:22.079 --> 00:30:28.400 I would rather take a beginner trader and help them make a million dollars than I would a beginner writer or artist. 00:30:28.640 --> 00:30:33.759 And so, as crappy of a picture as we've painted, it's actually just normal. 00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:38.720 Even if you take a startup business, if you want to open up a restaurant, that's really hard. 00:30:38.799 --> 00:30:39.759 It's a hard industry. 00:30:39.839 --> 00:30:42.400 You're gonna need to work your tail off for so many years. 00:30:42.480 --> 00:30:46.880 You're gonna need to work nights, weekends, you're gonna have to learn all these aspects of the business. 00:30:47.119 --> 00:30:54.880 Entrepreneurship, like especially now that I've done my own stuff, building the YouTube brand and all that, entrepreneurship of any kind is so hard. 00:30:55.119 --> 00:30:56.960 You are responsible for every detail. 00:30:57.039 --> 00:31:02.640 If you are running your own business and trying to scale a business with employees and everything else, it is not easy. 00:31:02.720 --> 00:31:04.559 There is a multi-year learning curve. 00:31:04.720 --> 00:31:06.160 Most businesses fail. 00:31:06.319 --> 00:31:09.039 So I think it's not that trading is unique. 00:31:09.200 --> 00:31:14.799 Um, and if anything, trading is favorable versus other areas, but you need to put in the time. 00:31:14.960 --> 00:31:20.079 And if you're gonna quit at month six or year one, you might as well not even start. 00:31:20.160 --> 00:31:28.799 Like imagine, imagine if I were to tell you, I'm gonna open up a restaurant, but if it doesn't make a million bucks a year in profit by the end of the first year, I'm done. 00:31:29.039 --> 00:31:31.200 You might you might as well just not even start. 00:31:31.359 --> 00:31:33.119 And that's true for a lot of stuff. 00:31:33.279 --> 00:31:42.960 So you need to be willing to put in the work, knowing that if you persevere and that most won't, you can self-select and eventually reach all that delayed gratification. 00:31:43.200 --> 00:31:48.160 An experienced trader makes so much more money than they ever should. 00:31:48.319 --> 00:31:53.279 I I've I I have friends that are in their late 20s making hundreds of thousands, millions of dollars. 00:31:53.519 --> 00:31:57.279 They they are not like how many executives make$2 million a year? 00:31:57.440 --> 00:32:06.079 Is my is my is my 27-year-old friend Steven that makes a couple million bucks a year, is he all that more special than some of these top executives? 00:32:06.319 --> 00:32:06.640 No. 00:32:06.960

--> 00:32:09.119 But he paid his dues early on. 00:32:09.279 --> 00:32:18.960 And all these long-term traders, they are getting um the fruits of their labors over the course of their career as long as they continue to adapt and evolve with the market. 00:32:19.119 --> 00:32:26.799 Um, so in that sense, markets are actually beautiful because once you find success, you are earning such an above-average living. 00:32:26.880 --> 00:32:35.359 I mean, there are people at Trillium making a lot of money year after year after year, that they would not have been able to replicate that in any other endeavor. 00:32:35.519 --> 00:32:40.480 If I got into any job other than trading, I would not be where I am today. 00:32:40.720 --> 00:32:44.400 If I took that accounting job at KPMG, I would not be where I am today. 00:32:44.640 --> 00:32:51.839 Virtually anything but the most extreme of performance crafts would not have compensated me like trading does. 00:32:53.119 --> 00:33:03.279 You know, um just hearing all this, and I'm thinking, if I'm listening to this, I'm thinking, I'm gonna switch off now and just go do something else. 00:33:03.440 --> 00:33:07.759 You know, we're not there to try and demotivate you, we're actually there to motivate you. 00:33:08.000 --> 00:33:08.240 Okay. 00:33:08.799 --> 00:33:16.559 But what we want you to have is a dose of reality, not a dose of unreality, which is what you're getting from every single day. 00:33:16.720 --> 00:33:26.880 You know, you're seeing these these things on social media that are going, you could be a multimillionaire driving a Lamborghini, living the high life, try flying first class. 00:33:27.039 --> 00:33:29.599 That's what you are holding the dollar things in your hands. 00:33:29.680 --> 00:33:32.240 We we see them, you know, they're cowboys, okay. 00:33:32.400 --> 00:33:40.240 The the the snake oil salesmen, okay, and you know, they're making money drifting this, okay. 00:33:40.799 --> 00:33:44.000 They're selling you the dream, okay. 00:33:44.640 --> 00:33:46.160 That's not life. 00:33:46.559 --> 00:33:51.839 Okay, if you really want to make it, if you really want to have the dream, these are the sort of messages you've got to hear. 00:33:52.079 --> 00:34:01.119 Okay, and if you're halfway through this and you're thinking, oh god, okay, all right, don't give up on it, but just just get realistic. 00:34:01.599 --> 00:34:04.880 Okay, you know, Lance is a great example of this. 00:34:05.039 --> 00:34:11.679 You know, we've had so many great people on our podcast over the years who tell you the same story, okay? 00:34:11.920 --> 00:34:19.280 And and you know, we're we're we're trying to say that this is reality, okay? 00:34:19.599 --> 00:34:21.039 This is this is how it is. 00:34:21.119 --> 00:34:22.239 This is what I said at the beginning. 00:34:22.480 --> 00:34:27.039 Lance, I don't want you to tell us your secret, your secret signal, your technical signals, okay. 00:34:27.280 --> 00:34:33.599 Every single trader who's ever succeeded, if you take a thousand of them, they'll all trade in a slightly different way. 00:34:33.760 --> 00:34:36.000 Okay, some might not use technicals at all. 00:34:36.159 --> 00:34:42.400 Okay, some will only use technicals, some will have a blend, okay, some will be systematic, some will be discretionary. 00:34:42.639 --> 00:34:45.920 You know, I would like to get into your way a little bit at some point soon. 00:34:46.079 --> 00:34:52.400 Um, but before I do, I want to hand it back, Mark, because you you you're sitting there and I know you've got some some powerful views on all this. 00:34:52.639 --> 00:35:04.880 Yeah, I think um I mean guess sort of a slight summary of them of the belief that there is delayed gratification is I think you know that that through the work there will be um reward is important. 00:35:05.440 --> 00:35:26.159 Um but of course I know that um you know your your your journey, Lance, would have had moments that you needed to push through, you know, to keep momentum going, to be on track for you know for certainly the world within trillium, and of course to some extent the world after that. 00:35:26.400 --> 00:35:30.960 But what kept you going when things didn't quite work out? 00:35:31.039 --> 00:35:37.360 You know, because I thought I think dealing dealing with that, pushing through and self-belief is really, really important. 00:35:38.079 --> 00:35:44.960 Any massive elite performer would would have the same um you know barriers to push through. 00:35:45.119 --> 00:35:48.639 What what what were your barriers and how did you push through them? 00:35:48.960 --> 00:35:53.360 Yeah, so I'm I'm gonna go on a big, big rant, looping some of this stuff together. 00:35:53.519 --> 00:36:02.000 So what one of my favorite business minds, but just general minds right now has been uh Alex Hermozzi. 00:36:02.239 --> 00:36:07.199 And Alex Hermozy speaks a lot about how reality is undefeated. 00:36:07.360 --> 00:36:14.719 And someone asked him this amazing question, like, um, you know, is is it is it bad to meet your heroes or something like that? 00:36:14.880 --> 00:36:15.679 And he's like, why? 00:36:15.760 --> 00:36:24.239 And he's and the question asker said, oh, because they might not be all you you know hoped for and and thought they would be. 00:36:24.400 --> 00:36:29.039 And then he's like, Yeah, but like, why would I want to live in some disillusioned fantasy? 00:36:29.119 --> 00:36:32.320 Like, I want to have the closest frame to reality as possible. 00:36:32.480 --> 00:36:35.599 Like, I want to view the world as realistically as possible. 00:36:35.840 --> 00:36:51.039 And this concept of viewing the world realistically is so important because I think any time in life when we do not view the world realistically, we ultimately uh get harmed or at least will over the long run. 00:36:51.199 --> 00:36:53.920 So, so take someone as genius as Steve Jobs. 00:36:54.079 --> 00:36:58.400 I think anyone

will say Steve Jobs was a genius, extremely intelligent, extremely smart. 00:36:58.559 --> 00:37:01.199 Steve Jobs was also a dumbass, right? 00:37:01.440 --> 00:37:05.360 And Steve Jobs being a dumbass actually got him killed, you know? 00:37:05.679 --> 00:37:18.480 Because if you read his his the biography by Walter Isaacson, right, when he had cancer, he spent something like a couple months on like an apple diet where he was he was only eating apples rather than doing chemo. 00:37:18.719 --> 00:37:22.559 His lens was that, hey, apples and nature will holistically heal me. 00:37:22.719 --> 00:37:23.280 He was wrong. 00:37:23.440 --> 00:37:24.719 That didn't match reality. 00:37:24.880 --> 00:37:32.960 The reality was he probably did need chemo, and then in his later, you know, days when he was about to pass away, he deeply regretted that. 00:37:33.199 --> 00:37:41.280 Reality one, you know, no matter what you he could distort the business world through pure force and will, but you can't distort nature. 00:37:41.440 --> 00:37:44.800 And him doing that Apple diet probably significantly hurt him. 00:37:44.880 --> 00:37:52.960 And anytime you have a view that's different, like if you think, oh my God, you know, I don't care how hard trading is, I'm gonna do this in three months, well, guess what? 00:37:53.119 --> 00:37:54.320 Reality is gonna hit you hard. 00:37:54.480 --> 00:38:01.920 And so I think so often in life, like if we conflict with reality, it harms us. 00:38:02.000 --> 00:38:03.920 And that's kind of Hermosy's point. 00:38:04.079 --> 00:38:09.199 And so, then to the question of the learning curve, you can be harmed each way. 00:38:09.360 --> 00:38:13.599 Like, if I think, oh my God, I'm so good, I'm gonna be so great, I'm gonna be the best. 00:38:13.920 --> 00:38:14.719 Well, guess what? 00:38:14.800 --> 00:38:17.119 If that's not true, the PL is gonna talk. 00:38:17.199 --> 00:38:21.599 Like the PL is the ultimate arbiter of truth, especially over the long run. 00:38:21.679 --> 00:38:27.840 Like you can get lucky on any given day, but over the long run, PL is your measure of success. 00:38:28.159 --> 00:38:31.920 And so ultimately, I was struggling. 00:38:32.000 --> 00:38:33.280 I did not have PL. 00:38:33.360 --> 00:38:38.000 So to say, oh my god, Lance, you're so special, you're such a good trader, Lance, you're gonna be a market wizard. 00:38:38.079 --> 00:38:39.440 That would have been a total lie. 00:38:39.599 --> 00:38:41.440 Reality was saying, Lance, you're shit. 00:38:41.519 --> 00:38:42.719 You're not gonna make it. 00:38:42.880 --> 00:38:45.920 And so I had to face the truth. 00:38:46.159 --> 00:38:49.920 And at that moment, I had to handicap that decision. 00:38:50.079 --> 00:38:51.840 Like everything is expected value. 00:38:51.920 --> 00:38:58.239 So I had to very objectively say, Lance, what is the expected value of me staying at this job? 00:38:58.320 --> 00:39:04.079 Like I could stay here for two years, four years, six years, but am I just gonna be wasting all my time and money? 00:39:04.239 --> 00:39:09.440 I mean, given I was getting paid some super menial salary, but there is an opportunity cost. 00:39:09.519 --> 00:39:14.480 I could have got a job paying me over a hundred grand, meanwhile, I was making 25 grand a year. 00:39:14.639 --> 00:39:20.719 And so at any moment in time, I had to do the expected value equation. 00:39:20.880 --> 00:39:24.239 What is the probability of my success if I stay? 00:39:24.480 --> 00:39:27.440 What is the probability, you know, what is the what is the reward? 00:39:27.519 --> 00:39:30.880 What's that spectrum of how much money I can make? 00:39:30.960 --> 00:39:33.840 And what's my opportunity cost if I fail? 00:39:34.000 --> 00:39:38.960 And so when I first took the job at Trillium, I had a job offer at the Bank of Montreal. 00:39:39.039 --> 00:39:42.159 And I did that equation in my head for myself. 00:39:42.320 --> 00:39:44.719 Of course, you don't know the true numbers, you're approximating. 00:39:44.800 --> 00:39:51.679 And so then when I was a year in and struggling, I was interviewing at other firms because I didn't know if this is worth it. 00:39:51.840 --> 00:39:55.679 And so to make that decision, I started talking to some of the others in my group. 00:39:55.840 --> 00:39:57.119 And I got so lucky. 00:39:57.280 --> 00:39:59.119 Actually, I mean, I was texting this guy just yesterday. 00:39:59.280 --> 00:40:01.119 We're still we're still really good friends. 00:40:01.440 --> 00:40:05.039 And I said, hey man, like I'm thinking of quitting. 00:40:05.119 --> 00:40:11.360 I don't want to tell our boss just yet, but like I think I need to quit in another six months if this doesn't start happening and or even quit now. 00:40:11.440 --> 00:40:12.239 Like I'm interviewing. 00:40:12.320 --> 00:40:15.280 Should I just should I just spend all my effort on finding a new job? 00:40:15.440 --> 00:40:16.960 Because this seems hopeless. 00:40:17.280 --> 00:40:20.480 And fortunately, he was an outside perspective. 00:40:20.559 --> 00:40:31.039 And he could say, Look, Lance, like, I know it sucks right now, but from my seat, you're understanding the concepts, your call-outs that you're making are really good. 00:40:31.199 --> 00:40:36.800 Like, I think you're gonna really regret it if you don't give it another six months to a year. 00:40:37.039 --> 00:40:44.880 Because from what I'm seeing, you're closer than you think, and your probabilities of success, even though it feels shitty, are actually better. 00:40:45.119 --> 00:40:49.599 And so those conversations helped me gauge like what's the expected value of me staying. 00:40:49.760 --> 00:40:52.639 And so I had to very objectively do that analysis. 00:40:52.800 --> 00:40:59.119 There's some people at that firm where it's like, look, man, you can stay here for four years, it's not gonna happen. 00:40:59.199 --> 00:41:02.639 Like you're just not doing the work, you don't have

you're not getting it. 00:41:02.800 --> 00:41:05.039 And so ultimately, reality wins. 00:41:05.119 --> 00:41:09.760 And we're just trying to make the the right decision based on how we perceive reality. 00:41:09.920 --> 00:41:12.800 That is life, that is trading, that's everything else. 00:41:12.960 --> 00:41:20.000 Like, if I wanted to go to the MBA, it doesn't matter how powerful my Y is, it doesn't matter how badly I want it. 00:41:20.079 --> 00:41:22.480 Like, I am not going to make it in the MBA. 00:41:22.559 --> 00:41:23.760 You know, that is reality. 00:41:24.000 --> 00:41:29.039 If I try and ignore or deny that, reality will ultimately win. 00:41:29.199 --> 00:41:30.480 Reality always wins. 00:41:31.039 --> 00:41:35.280 Can I just ask, if that mentor had not said that to you, what would have happened? 00:41:35.679 --> 00:41:38.800 Well, so things could have got dicey. 00:41:38.960 --> 00:41:43.920 Uh, you know, I got lucky to some degree because I ended I interviewed at Citadel. 00:41:44.000 --> 00:41:46.159 Um, or no, not Citadel, D.E. 00:41:46.239 --> 00:41:46.719 Shaw. 00:41:47.119 --> 00:41:49.679 And uh if D.E. 00:41:49.760 --> 00:41:58.239 Shaw, which is just absolutely incredible firm, if they gave me a job offer, even with what he said, I probably would have been gone. 00:41:58.480 --> 00:42:11.920 I mean, to to to be making no money, living like a dog, like eating awful crappy food, like working your butt off and seeing nothing, if I got some really juicy job offer, even with his advice, I would have been gone. 00:42:12.159 --> 00:42:16.480 And um what it did though is one, I got lucky that D.E. 00:42:16.559 --> 00:42:19.679 Shaw was like, hey Lance, you actually do suck, and we don't want you either. 00:42:19.760 --> 00:42:21.920 Uh, so I got a little lucky in that regard. 00:42:22.159 --> 00:42:27.840 Um, but ultimately what ended up happening is once I got rejected from from D.E. 00:42:27.920 --> 00:42:30.159 Shaw, I still did maybe one more interview. 00:42:30.320 --> 00:42:32.480 But what I said is I'm gonna have a stop loss. 00:42:32.639 --> 00:42:35.840 Like, I can't spend four years at this job making no money. 00:42:35.920 --> 00:42:37.599 Um, I've I've got to support myself. 00:42:37.679 --> 00:42:38.639 I have student loans. 00:42:38.800 --> 00:42:41.599 My family was not doing financially well either. 00:42:41.840 --> 00:42:45.440 And um so I said, I'm gonna give this six more months. 00:42:45.760 --> 00:42:55.760 That's that's like that's a based on the evidence I'm seeing, that's a prudent amount where if it's been two years and I'm still not showing at least the green shoots of making money, I just gotta call it. 00:42:55.920 --> 00:43:05.039 And so again, who knows whether what degrees luck and everything else, but um within a couple months later, I started to have some really breakout trades. 00:43:05.199 --> 00:43:11.840 And once I caught my stride, and once everything started to click, oh man, there was there was just no looking back. 00:43:12.000 --> 00:43:22.960 And like the the speed at which I, because I conceptually understood everything so well, especially like the bet sizing and everything else, and I had such good role models of bet sizing. 00:43:23.119 --> 00:43:34.480 Once I started making like a 10K month or a 20K month, the speed at which I was making 40K, 60, 80k, um, it was just so so mind-bogglingly fast. 00:43:35.119 --> 00:43:48.000 Um, where it was it was just such an incredible part of my life to struggle for two years, then say, oh my God, I am I am making you know like months and months worth of pay uh in a week. 00:43:48.159 --> 00:43:51.119 Uh it was it was an incredible time in my life. 00:43:51.840 --> 00:43:55.360 Okay, so let's let's let let's move forward to that point. 00:43:55.679 --> 00:43:56.000 Okay. 00:43:56.639 --> 00:44:00.960 Um and and let's also focus on the fact that you With day trading. 00:44:01.599 --> 00:44:01.920 Okay. 00:44:02.079 --> 00:44:02.960 Inequities. 00:44:03.599 --> 00:44:16.960 And in the book you spoke about how day trading, and I'm gonna add a caveat here, day trading when you get it right, okay, can be one of the most lucrative activities going. 00:44:17.920 --> 00:44:18.239 Okay. 00:44:18.880 --> 00:44:24.239 Um, and you you you you made some really interesting points that you know there's people say, well, algos can do it. 00:44:24.320 --> 00:44:26.400 How can you do it if algos can do it quicker? 00:44:26.880 --> 00:44:27.119 Okay. 00:44:27.440 --> 00:44:29.119 Now I love the way you answered that. 00:44:29.199 --> 00:44:31.760 You've obviously thought about that very deeply. 00:44:32.000 --> 00:44:36.159 Um and and we're having this with AI now where people are saying, Well, AI can do that. 00:44:36.239 --> 00:44:37.360 How can you beat AI? 00:44:37.519 --> 00:44:40.400 It's the same sort of thing, and AI is more powerful. 00:44:40.639 --> 00:44:43.280 Actually, I think some of the same things are at play there. 00:44:43.440 --> 00:44:55.920 That that there's an element of human sensing and capability that something clicks and you hone in on something that's actually not yet there, you see it in advance. 00:44:56.079 --> 00:44:59.519 And I wonder if that was it. 00:44:59.679 --> 00:45:01.119 You know, what what was it for you? 00:45:01.199 --> 00:45:13.599 I'm just second guessing here a bit, but what was it for you that shifted that enabled you as a day trader to go from someone who wasn't making money to someone who's having you know 10, 20, 40,000 days? 00:45:13.920 --> 00:45:15.119 What was the difference? 00:45:15.280 --> 00:45:20.239 Other than, you know, you you were still persisting, you were still working hard, but something clicked. 00:45:20.480 --> 00:45:21.360 What was it? 00:45:21.760 --> 00:45:30.960 Yeah, I mean, so for starters, one of the one of the hills that I will very passionately die on, and uh I wish I had just the greater intellect. 00:45:31.199 --> 00:45:37.360 I

mean, I probably could team up with someone and and just write a white paper, and maybe one day in my life I I will do this. 00:45:37.599 --> 00:45:56.239 Um but I would love to write a white paper, essentially arguing you can't technically prove anything, but but making the point that the most and greatest edge is on the shorter time frames, and that the returns of a skilled day trader will never ever be matched by the higher time frames. 00:45:56.400 --> 00:46:09.440 Like over a long-term investment horizon, uh, you know, the Warren Buffett's the most skilled investors of all time, like Warren Buffett's returns are laughable to like in the poor way compared to a day trader. 00:46:09.599 --> 00:46:19.760 Um, like if we calculated uh, you know, I mean, my my returns were and I know for market wizards, they calculated them, which I can't even tell you what they were off my head. 00:46:20.000 --> 00:46:32.079 But um if if if we weren't increasing my capital as aggressively as as we were, um for for day trading world, like day trading is of course, you know, more liquidity constrained. 00:46:32.320 --> 00:46:49.440 If we just gave me like a a million dollar account, the returns I would have done on that, or even a 250k account levered, because that's you know, most day trading buying power is levered, 4x, the returns I could do on that would just be so astronomical. 00:46:49.599 --> 00:46:56.320 Um, so that is a that is one thing later in life I'll try and team up with someone far smarter than me uh to do a white paper on. 00:46:56.719 --> 00:47:10.400 Um, but then to your oh sorry, then the second part of the question, remind me again, it was um just just to put just to put a caveat in there, because we sometimes get people pushed back on his when people make some of the sort of claims you did. 00:47:10.639 --> 00:47:16.880 Um his I think his return profile is something sub 20% annually. 00:47:17.119 --> 00:47:22.079 Okay, but equally the amount of capital he's got at work is something like$150 billion. 00:47:22.719 --> 00:47:28.079 And and you can't just move that sort of money and you don't have that sort of liquidity on a on a daily basis. 00:47:28.239 --> 00:47:39.119 So it's one of those progressive things that the the the more your size goes up that you're you're playing with, um, the longer the time frame you need and the lower your actual return is going to be. 00:47:39.280 --> 00:47:45.440 Um and I I'm I I know you're aware of that, but I'm just sort of making before anyone writes in. 00:47:46.480 --> 00:47:46.880 Yeah, yeah. 00:47:47.119 --> 00:47:47.440 Of course. 00:47:47.599 --> 00:47:49.920 But I mean even if you normalize for that. 00:47:50.000 --> 00:47:58.480 And I mean, the simplest proof of this would simply be that the beauty of being a day trader is you can be moving to the stuff that's moving the greatest percent, right? 00:47:58.639 --> 00:48:02.559 So if you're invested, you you're at the whims of the market, right? 00:48:02.639 --> 00:48:05.199 You can get a bear market, you're going down generally. 00:48:05.519 --> 00:48:17.360 And even still, for you to have like elite elite performance, you're not gonna man, like if you're picking the same stocks for months or years or whatever, those are not necessarily the stocks moving the most percent each day. 00:48:17.440 --> 00:48:24.639 The beauty of being a day trader is I can move to the greatest volatility every single day and be capturing massive percents on that account. 00:48:24.719 --> 00:48:30.880 So that's that's something like what the proof would look like, even even normalized for for for buying power and whatnot. 00:48:31.199 --> 00:48:36.159 And again, just to add something in, I think if Warren Buffett had day traded, he wouldn't be alive now. 00:48:37.039 --> 00:48:38.400 That is also probably true. 00:48:38.559 --> 00:48:45.920 Yeah, he's managed to uh preserve both health and wealth uh miraculously despite the diet cokes and uh you know cheeseburgers. 00:48:46.239 --> 00:48:50.239 Yeah, that the that that there's there's very few more testing things than day trading. 00:48:50.320 --> 00:49:06.559 And I mean, I as a trader I work for a bank, so I wasn't as sort of trader as you, but there was a period where I was pretty much day trading, and it's not something you can do into into you know, well I find personally it's very hard to do even in even beyond your medium years, age-wise. 00:49:06.639 --> 00:49:09.519 It's it's the the energy that it requires. 00:49:09.760 --> 00:49:13.920 You know, I mean, you must have been burning some calories doing that job on a daily basis. 00:49:14.239 --> 00:49:14.960 Oh, it's tough. 00:49:15.039 --> 00:49:16.480 Yeah, it never gets easy. 00:49:16.800 --> 00:49:17.519 Yeah, yeah. 00:49:17.599 --> 00:49:21.840 But it and again, this is the thing, it's you know, it's what you put into it. 00:49:21.920 --> 00:49:27.199 But you know, day trading takes a special sort of person as well, and a special sort of energy. 00:49:27.280 --> 00:49:36.079 I mean, I I mean Marcus spoke about this a lot with the people we knew from the markets when we were young, many of whom would have been day traders and day brokers, sort of thing. 00:49:36.320 --> 00:49:46.079 And and you know, it it a lot of them had to take extra sort of substances just to get through the week, and uh it it it took a big toll on their lives in many ways. 00:49:46.320 --> 00:49:49.679 Yeah, I think the general conclusion for everyone was that it sucks. 00:49:50.320 --> 00:49:56.880 Basically, it's uh you know, there are other better things to be doing it, but if you're in it, okay, that's fine. 00:49:57.119 --> 00:50:02.800 It's um it requires you to manage yourself in a very different way. 00:50:02.960 --> 00:50:05.920 Steve mentioned early on about well, what does this mean? 00:50:06.159 --> 00:50:11.360 We've talked technicals and markets, but what about what what's Lance doing to cope with this stuff?

00:50:11.519 --> 00:50:15.519 I mean, what's your what's what where are you getting your your energy from? 00:50:15.679 --> 00:50:23.679 Where where are you sort of you know getting rid of the of the downs and and to some extent the um you know the high aces, right? 00:50:23.760 --> 00:50:26.400 Because as you said, you don't want to be too extreme on this stuff. 00:50:26.480 --> 00:50:29.920 So how how are you managing yourself, Jurean, or how did you manage yourself? 00:50:30.079 --> 00:50:34.480 Obviously, you may have moved on from that phase of your career. 00:50:34.800 --> 00:50:43.760 Well, I think the beauty of the world is so much has evolved in performance endeavors over and will continue to evolve. 00:50:44.079 --> 00:50:52.480 And if you think about it, we used to have professional athletes uh chewing tobacco, smoking, you know, drinking everything. 00:50:52.639 --> 00:50:59.280 How many professional athletes are doing that kind of stuff, you know, before a game, after a game, whatever? 00:50:59.519 --> 00:51:05.920 And even over the course of my career, the amount the world has evolved is incredible. 00:51:06.079 --> 00:51:13.760 So you have all these stereotypes of the macho frat pro trader that's out partying, drinking, doing cocaine on the desk, all this stuff. 00:51:14.000 --> 00:51:16.000 Like, well, guess what? 00:51:16.159 --> 00:51:20.079 That type of person, you do not perform optimally. 00:51:20.239 --> 00:51:22.880 That type of person is pretty much gone. 00:51:23.039 --> 00:51:26.159 You do not have a career anymore because you cannot compete. 00:51:26.320 --> 00:51:32.000 And so, what ended up happening is even trading floors are so much more efficient than they used to be. 00:51:32.159 --> 00:51:37.840 So, on trading floors, you have desks that are subsidizing sleep tracking aura rings. 00:51:37.920 --> 00:51:44.000 You have desks that are ordering healthy meals for their traders, you have desks that are providing psychology services. 00:51:44.239 --> 00:51:56.800 And the uh even over the last five years, I think I was ahead of the curve on this, but now everybody, not just traders and performance athletes, know about sleep, exercise, diet, and everything else. 00:51:57.039 --> 00:52:02.559 Like most of American youth are not even American youth, global youth. 00:52:02.639 --> 00:52:06.559 I gotta make this more acceptable to uh my my my my my my friends in London. 00:52:06.719 --> 00:52:13.519 And uh the amount of people that are drinking during the week, if they want to perform, it just doesn't happen anymore. 00:52:13.679 --> 00:52:24.079 So the last five years in particular, people are acutely aware of how important sleep is, how damaging alcohol and other drugs are, how important diet and exercise is. 00:52:24.159 --> 00:52:31.599 I mean, we have we have females, we have males of all ages doing strength training, doing cardio, uh, doing mindfulness. 00:52:31.920 --> 00:52:38.320 So by default, the cultural norms have evolved and that has allowed traders to perform better. 00:52:38.559 --> 00:52:42.800 Me, I spent most of my career drinking my ass off, just having a blast in the city. 00:52:42.960 --> 00:52:44.800 It was not optimal for performance. 00:52:44.880 --> 00:53:01.360 It was optimal for having the time in my life that I look back fondly on, but that was not the I wish like I swear to God on this, the amount of PL that I've given up from just being hung over on the desk over the course of my career is so many millions of dollars. 00:53:01.599 --> 00:53:06.079 Um, you know, whether that's whether whether I would go back and change it, who the hell knows? 00:53:06.239 --> 00:53:10.079 Um but so the world has evolved in that sense. 00:53:10.239 --> 00:53:17.119 And now, like I'm I'm well aware that if there's a big trade coming up, you can bet that I'm getting good sleep ahead of that. 00:53:17.280 --> 00:53:20.880 You can bet that I'm still hitting the gym, I'm still hitting my morning routine. 00:53:20.960 --> 00:53:39.199 And I think I think one of my biggest contributions to the trading world at large nowadays is even in 2022 when I started tweeting and whatever else, since 2018, I had been tracking my sleep and working that sleep score into my daily report card and my daily routine. 00:53:39.360 --> 00:53:42.239 And I was connecting the dots between guess what? 00:53:42.400 --> 00:53:48.320 How well I sleep, exercise, and feel is highly correlated to my PL. 00:53:48.639 --> 00:53:53.440 And when I first started tweeting that stuff, I was laughed out of the room. 00:53:53.599 --> 00:53:56.400 Like people would mock me endlessly on Twitter. 00:53:56.559 --> 00:53:58.000 Oh my God, I can't believe that. 00:53:58.079 --> 00:54:01.760 Oh, oh, you know, alpha male traders, uh, you know, tracking his sleep. 00:54:01.840 --> 00:54:03.280 Oh, boo hoo, he got bad sleep. 00:54:03.360 --> 00:54:04.320 Like, oh, who cares? 00:54:04.480 --> 00:54:07.360 Oh, what, you're really not gonna go out drinking before a big day. 00:54:07.440 --> 00:54:09.599 Like, I was mocked endlessly. 00:54:09.679 --> 00:54:11.760 And that was just four years ago. 00:54:12.079 --> 00:54:22.480 Now, the amount of people that have emailed me, uh, texted me, spoke to me, even at meetups, even when I run into people, even on Twitter now, it's just like so obvious. 00:54:22.559 --> 00:54:26.960 Like, oh, wait, getting really shitty sleep really damages my PL. 00:54:27.119 --> 00:54:30.239 Drinking before a big day really damages my PL. 00:54:30.400 --> 00:54:34.239 And so um, the world has evolved in a good way. 00:54:34.400 --> 00:54:35.360 And guess what? 00:54:35.519 --> 00:54:38.480 You need to evolve because otherwise you just cannot compete. 00:54:38.639 --> 00:54:41.119 You will you will become extinct like a dinosaur. 00:54:41.280 --> 00:54:51.920 If if you are still parting your ass off, getting shitty sleep, not doing the this stuff, it's it it hurts you, and you can't

afford in a performance endeavor to to be that way. 00:54:54.320 --> 00:54:56.800 Well, there you go, folks. 00:54:57.039 --> 00:54:58.719 Guess remember those critical things. 00:54:58.800 --> 00:55:02.480 It starts off with you at real, I guess, a physiological level, no. 00:55:02.880 --> 00:55:06.159 I'm so pleased you mentioned the mindfulness stuff as well. 00:55:06.239 --> 00:55:11.840 Those things, you know, I guess 10 years ago would have been seen as softy sort of things not to bother with. 00:55:12.079 --> 00:55:18.079 Um, and in London, I'd try and get having a curry at midnight as well after a night out drinking, you know. 00:55:18.239 --> 00:55:23.440 So um yes, uh treating things seriously, I think, is really, really important. 00:55:23.679 --> 00:55:38.000 You know what's really interesting is I I was out this week for a very nice evening, probably drinking a little bit too much, but um it was with um a wine producer from Oregon of all places, um, where they produced some amazing wines. 00:55:38.480 --> 00:55:44.000 And um uh I think I've still got a bit of a headache from it, actually. 00:55:44.239 --> 00:55:58.960 But uh he was saying that one of the big um shifts in the wine industry amongst young people is they're drinking a lot less wine in quantity, but they're making up for it by spending a lot more on quality. 00:55:59.199 --> 00:56:02.079 So actually, their spending on wine hasn't gone down. 00:56:02.320 --> 00:56:09.199 But instead of going out five days a week and having a cheap wine, they're going out one day a week and having a really good wine. 00:56:09.360 --> 00:56:14.000 Um, and that's benefited them a lot, he said, because they're growing some very good wine. 00:56:14.239 --> 00:56:23.119 Um, but it it does talk about that shift in it in people's in how people are engaging with health and leisure and pleasure. 00:56:23.360 --> 00:56:47.599 And and you reminded me of of an individual I know who was featured on the Market Wizards book before you, who told me that you know he went away for a long weekend for a stag weekend, um, and it was sort of a Thursday evening tell Sunday night thing where you know there wasn't an awful lot of sleep and a lot of um a lot of uh bodily abuse being done to everyone there. 00:56:47.840 --> 00:56:53.119 And he said the the big problem was on the Friday after that was non-farm payrolls. 00:56:53.360 --> 00:56:59.760 You know, one of the you know, he makes a lot of money every non-farm payrolls, usually if he gets it right. 00:56:59.920 --> 00:57:04.800 And he said that weekend trip, in his estimate, cost him$500,000. 00:57:07.119 --> 00:57:08.239 I believe it, yeah. 00:57:08.480 --> 00:57:14.880 And I think I think it's one of those things where this doesn't mean don't have fun, don't drink, you know, you got always got to be perfect. 00:57:15.119 --> 00:57:18.960 A lot of this is just being mindful and making sure you make the right decision. 00:57:19.119 --> 00:57:21.760 And it goes

back to that concept of reality. 00:57:22.000 --> 00:57:26.000 Like there are costs to every decision, every decision is a trade-off. 00:57:26.159 --> 00:57:31.440 But just the more accurate you can be with both sides of the ledger, hey, here's the pros, here's the costs. 00:57:31.599 --> 00:57:32.079 Guess what? 00:57:32.239 --> 00:57:35.199 I still drink, I still have nights where I have super shitty sleep. 00:57:35.360 --> 00:57:38.719 I'll still go on the fun trips, the jet lag, the this, the that. 00:57:38.880 --> 00:57:41.679 But it's just making sure that you're aware of the cost. 00:57:41.920 --> 00:57:53.039 And I think from most of my trading career, we were not uh just intellectually aware of wow, these are the costs of bad sleep, of drinking the night before um, you know, a big day, all that stuff. 00:57:53.280 --> 00:57:58.559 And uh so it's it's not that there's a right decision with most things. 00:57:58.639 --> 00:58:00.800 You should should you stay in trading or should you quit? 00:58:00.880 --> 00:58:02.159 Should you pursue this or should you not? 00:58:02.239 --> 00:58:03.920 Should you be this style of trader or that? 00:58:04.079 --> 00:58:06.159 Should you get good sleep or bad sleep? 00:58:06.400 --> 00:58:07.760 There's no right decision. 00:58:07.840 --> 00:58:14.159 It's just trying to make as accurate of a decision for your values that's positive expected value for you. 00:58:14.239 --> 00:58:16.559 And that's kind of the beauty about trading. 00:58:16.800 --> 00:58:26.159 Every trading concept and markets itself themselves, it's such a lens and such a microcosm for just life in general, right? 00:58:26.320 --> 00:58:33.920 Every decision we make in life has a trade-off, everything has an expected value of how uh that decision will pan out. 00:58:34.000 --> 00:58:38.000 And the goal of life is to figure out these are our goals and our values. 00:58:38.239 --> 00:58:42.800 What are the decisions with the best expected value to help us achieve those? 00:58:42.960 --> 00:58:46.559 And then whatever risk we're taking, is that acceptable? 00:58:46.719 --> 00:58:53.280 Um, if if you're doing, you know, Adderall every single day, is is the health consequences of that worth it? 00:58:53.440 --> 00:59:01.119 Is uh if you're doing some unregulated peptide, is the health consequences uh worth it? 00:59:01.199 --> 00:59:02.800 And is the risk reward worth it? 00:59:02.880 --> 00:59:04.079 There's no right answer. 00:59:04.239 --> 00:59:06.079 It's just what's the right answer for you? 00:59:06.159 --> 00:59:10.079 And are you just being accurate with your assessment of the risk reward? 00:59:10.239 --> 00:59:12.000 That's life, everything we do. 00:59:12.639 --> 00:59:13.519 Fantastic. 00:59:13.760 --> 00:59:15.760 Listen, Mark, I'm mindful of time. 00:59:15.840 --> 00:59:20.559 Um, did you have any more questions you want to bring up or or is there anything else you'd like to add at this point? 00:59:20.800 --> 00:59:27.440 I mean, obviously, we you know, you're featured in the book, and you know, you're doing it, you're doing some different work now. 00:59:27.519 --> 00:59:29.280 You're doing a lot more educational stuff. 00:59:29.519 --> 00:59:30.960 You're still trading, right, as well. 00:59:31.199 --> 00:59:32.559 Still trade, yeah, yeah, absolutely. 00:59:32.719 --> 00:59:37.360 I just now don't trade at a level where I'm not gonna be able to sleep at night, which is a bit different. 00:59:38.159 --> 00:59:46.559 Yeah, I mean, I think I think my final message for the audience would be um trading is not impossible. 00:59:46.639 --> 00:59:48.880 Uh, it's just improbable. 00:59:49.199 --> 00:59:54.000 But those probabilities of success, you have a lot of those fully in your control. 00:59:54.159 --> 01:00:01.360 And as long as you go in with right expectations and you have a powerful why, you absolutely can find success at this job. 01:00:01.599 --> 01:00:10.639 And once you find success at this job, I think most people will agree, despite all the ups and downs, it is one of the most wonderful, beautiful careers you can ever have. 01:00:10.880 --> 01:00:15.440 The quality of life and the freedom you can experience is absolutely wonderful. 01:00:15.519 --> 01:00:19.599 And I have been blessed, uh, and I earned part of that blessing very much so. 01:00:19.679 --> 01:00:23.280 Uh, but I have been blessed to live the life that trading has provided me. 01:00:23.440 --> 01:00:27.760 And it is a career that no other job out there really could have done that for me. 01:00:27.920 --> 01:00:38.239 Um, so much of you know the the true dream of a young person achieving wealth and freedom, it is real. 01:00:38.480 --> 01:00:41.119 You just absolutely will also need to work at it. 01:00:41.199 --> 01:00:44.960 And I think that's what I want people to understand about the job. 01:00:45.760 --> 01:00:46.400 Fantastic. 01:00:46.559 --> 01:00:54.960 Well, listen, I think uh you know, for me, the the concept of that that belief that you will make it and that delayed gratification will come. 01:00:55.440 --> 01:01:16.320 Um also the you have to accept criticism on the journey and you use it to fire you up as you did from the HR teams telling you, you know, what's going on, from that mentor that um just checks you, but you push through it and you didn't end up going to the shore, and you ended up you know pursuing the career that you had. 01:01:16.480 --> 01:01:34.639 And those things perhaps come back to you really understanding what your why was at the very beginning and using it as the DNA through your journey to guess keep you saying, I'm going that way and no one's gonna stop me, you know, which uh which goes back to almost purpose, you know. 01:01:34.719 --> 01:01:40.880 And I think Christieve and I talk about purpose an awful lot and and it links into the powerful why. 01:01:40.960 --> 01:01:44.960 Um and if you don't know it, you're kind of listless and things don't happen. 01:01:45.039 --> 01:01:48.079 But if you do, it's the most powerful thing in the world. 01:01:48.239 --> 01:01:52.559 So uh we're super grateful for you joining us today. 01:01:52.639 --> 01:02:03.039 And um, I think at so many points I'm sure the the audience will will love and pick up a bond, and I'm sure at some point in the future we'll we'll do it all again as your journey continues. 01:02:03.920 --> 01:02:04.079 Thank you. 01:02:04.400 --> 01:02:06.960 Thank you, Mark and Steve, for the wonderful conversation. 01:02:07.039 --> 01:02:08.239 I've I've loved it. 01:02:08.480 --> 01:02:08.960 Brilliant. 01:02:09.039 --> 01:02:09.679 Yeah, thank you. 01:02:09.840 --> 01:02:14.320 I mean, um it was a long time getting you on, but it it was worth every second of it. 01:02:14.480 --> 01:02:15.360 So thank you very much. 01:02:15.440 --> 01:02:20.320 And of course, all your details, if anyone wants to find out more about you, they're in the podcast notes. 01:02:20.400 --> 01:02:21.840 So do check them out. 01:02:22.000 --> 01:02:28.639 Um, do if you haven't read Market Wizards for the Next Generation, do make sure you get around to that. 01:02:28.719 --> 01:02:31.440 They're all great books, the entire market series books. 01:02:31.599 --> 01:02:34.880 Um, Lance, thank you very much, and uh we wish you well. 01:02:35.119 --> 01:02:35.599 My pleasure. 01:02:35.840 --> 01:02:36.559 Same to you. 01:02:36.800 --> 01:02:37.840 Thank you for listening today. 01:02:37.920 --> 01:02:39.360 We do hope you enjoyed the episode. 01:02:39.519 --> 01:02:40.400 Thank you to Lance. 01:02:40.800 --> 01:02:43.119 It's great to have a Market Wizard back on the show. 01:02:43.199 --> 01:02:49.280 We've had several in the past, so uh, including Jack Schwager, of course, do check out some of our back episodes. 01:02:49.440 --> 01:02:56.480 And uh, if you want to know more about Lance and his work, do check out the the notes, the show notes, and uh you will find out plenty there. 01:02:56.719 --> 01:03:21.679 Again, just uh as a reminder, if you're interested about any of the services AlphaMind offer, from trader performance education to the high performance trader performance coaching, which we offer and which is offered uh both in the uh in the in the corporate world to organisations and to private individuals, uh, do reach out to us, info at alpha-mind.net, and do check out our website, alpha-mind.net. 01:03:22.000 --> 01:03:25.840 Thank you very much, and we look forward to having you for future episodes. 01:03:26.079 --> 01:03:26.880 Thank you.