One On One with Greg Sher & Scott Olson의 전체 녹취록

housing? 00:04:40.079 --> 00:04:41.279 Because it's funny you should say that. 00:04:41.600 --> 00:04:43.600 This is one of the questions I had on my list. 00:04:43.920 --> 00:04:55.600 So you're you're you're scratching my you're scratching my itch here because uh I don't know, does does uh Director Poulty I mean he knows building, but does he know the mortgage business? 00:04:55.839 --> 00:05:04.240 Like the you know, one of my questions is just overall, is there enough mortgage acumen in Capitol Hill? 00:05:04.399 --> 00:05:07.920 And if so, who is it Elizabeth Warren? 00:05:08.800 --> 00:05:14.319 So I guess I would start off by saying that everyone wants to talk about the big showy picture stuff. 00:05:14.399 --> 00:05:24.959 And I would say there's an there's a lot of uh very competent people in in the agencies, like uh Joe Gormley at Ginny May is outstanding. 00:05:25.199 --> 00:05:28.160 Um Matt Jones is over at FHA. 00:05:28.560 --> 00:05:30.720 Um these these these matter. 00:05:30.879 --> 00:05:42.399 I think uh FHFA, it's a it's yes, uh Poulti is in charge, but it's a collaborative process where you have Fannie Mae, Freddie Mack, um senior staff that's been around for a while. 00:05:42.480 --> 00:05:44.240 It's a it's a continuation. 00:05:44.639 --> 00:05:57.040 So um, you know, I think the CFPB has been the most um difficult to follow because they were run by the head of OMB for a while, and now they're trying to get a permanent director. 00:05:57.120 --> 00:06:00.639 And so, you know, uh, but they but they clearly understand the issue. 00:06:00.720 --> 00:06:11.519 So yeah, I mean I I I think when it comes to the people in the trenches at the key agencies for our members, I think there's a lot of very qualified people. 00:06:11.920 --> 00:06:13.360 You talked about the CFPB. 00:06:13.439 --> 00:06:17.120 My understanding is no enforcement actions in 2026. 00:06:17.360 --> 00:06:19.199 Is that your understanding as well? 00:06:19.839 --> 00:06:22.240 Well, I don't know whether there's none. 00:06:22.319 --> 00:06:25.360 Uh there's clearly it's been a different perspective. 00:06:25.519 --> 00:06:47.920 I I think that the um, you know, that's one half of the equation, which is that um they they obviously, I mean, I think they're moving towards a lot of the things that we've been arguing for years, which is number one, it shouldn't be based on did you ticky tack violate some rule, but whether there's consumer harm. 00:06:48.160 --> 00:06:51.759 Number two, uh there shouldn't be regulation by enforcement. 00:06:51.920 --> 00:07:00.240 Number three, some of these rules that the Biden administration, one of the reasons I gave them a B minus, they were doing some rules that were absolutely redundant for IMVs. 00:07:00.319 --> 00:07:01.519 They took those out. 00:07:01.680 --> 00:07:06.160 So, but but obviously it doesn't mean that this goes away, it just shifts to the states. 00:07:06.399 --> 00:07:06.720 Yeah. 00:07:07.199 --> 00:07:15.120 I mean, I I I think when you compare Biden to uh this administration, the bar was pretty low. 00:07:15.519 --> 00:07:19.680 Having said that, there have been some significant things that have happened. 00:07:19.839 --> 00:07:29.199 Uh I look at uh how they attacked uh FICO and you know they insisted on, you know, Poulte insisted on competition there with vanta score, which is gaining adoption. 00:07:29.519 --> 00:07:30.639 Yeah, that's good. 00:07:30.959 --> 00:07:32.079 That's super positive. 00:07:32.240 --> 00:07:41.839 I guess where I get stuck, and maybe you can clear my head on this, is the levers that they could be pulling in terms of affordability that they're not. 00:07:42.399 --> 00:07:46.399 More specifically, uh G fees and really LLPAs. 00:07:48.240 --> 00:07:58.240 That's something that's something that they could do for they could just do a carve out for first-time home buyers and wave LLPAs, for instance. 00:07:58.560 --> 00:08:06.800 Do something with them, even even give a small little window where you do that for six months and then we measure like something like that. 00:08:06.879 --> 00:08:23.439 And I understand my opinion is that they didn't do that, um they didn't do that when Barry Habib was leaning in on it as a member of Fannie Mays on the board because they were really considering strongly taking the um agencies out of conservatorship. 00:08:23.600 --> 00:08:28.319 Well, now we're two years in, we're probably gonna have uh you know Democratic House. 00:08:28.480 --> 00:08:31.199 So it's uh it doesn't look like that's gonna happen. 00:08:31.680 --> 00:08:48.320 Um so if that's not gonna happen, if they're not coming out and they don't necessarily have to justify them coming out by ringing the rest register and showing this big number that brings in a nice uh attractive amount of money from the public markets, then why not do that? 00:08:48.480 --> 00:09:04.720 Like that this is where I wonder if they know what they're doing, because like if they really want housing to get behind them, that's something that they can do, Scott, right away that will make the president look like an absolute champion for those that are on the outside looking in. 00:09:05.039 --> 00:09:06.399 I well, totally agree. 00:09:06.480 --> 00:09:09.440 I've uh you must uh I think we someone handed you our hymnal. 00:09:09.519 --> 00:09:18.960 I mean, we were fighting early last year for cutting Gulling, cutting LLPAs on manufactured home loans, on condos, and on high cost loans. 00:09:19.279 --> 00:09:27.279 Um, and and we really made a big splash of that with our Gen Z report a couple months ago, which we featured in when we rolled it out. 00:09:27.519 --> 00:09:33.440 That, you know, for it's the high cost loans, it's uh, you know, they are not because they're risky. 00:09:33.600 --> 00:09:42.559 They're they're they're higher LLPAs because some people in Washington don't want to see uh loans in you know higher cost areas. 00:09:42.720

--> 00:09:43.519 Well, it's ridiculous. 00:09:43.600 --> 00:09:59.519 You know, we I pulled up a um a uh$720,000 home in like Kansas or Wisconsin, I think it was in rural Wisconsin, uh$750,000, uh 5,000 square feet, six bedrooms, whatever. 00:09:59.679 --> 00:10:00.960 So that's okay. 00:10:01.279 --> 00:10:12.080 But then I pulled one in, I think it was Calabasas, California, in the valley, uh, 1,300 square feet, not even a starter home, probably needed some work, and that was 850. 00:10:12.399 --> 00:10:13.600 And that's a starter home. 00:10:13.759 --> 00:10:20.320 And so there's just no reason in these high-cost areas that we should be discriminating against these loans. 00:10:20.399 --> 00:10:22.720 And so we'd like to see that fixed. 00:10:22.879 --> 00:10:37.919 And so yeah, they could do that, and maybe I think you you may be on to something that it factors into the taking them public, but you know, sometimes if you do this stuff, you can make a few more loans and you actually might make more money, you know. 00:10:38.159 --> 00:10:46.879 Well, I mean, the the the biggest issue facing both parties is affordability, things are just right out of control, right? 00:10:47.039 --> 00:10:49.840 And housing is front and center in that, in that. 00:10:49.919 --> 00:10:56.240 I mean, there's obviously gas and groceries and and and insurance, and there's a lot of things that are pushing the consumer. 00:10:56.720 --> 00:11:03.279 But when you look in, you know, I'm reading here that Fannie and Freddie Mack reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2026. 00:11:03.919 --> 00:11:10.240 Fanny posted net income of 4 billion while Freddie reported net income of 3.8 billion. 00:11:10.799 --> 00:11:13.279 So these are cash cows. 00:11:13.840 --> 00:11:15.600 There's certainly a lot of room to move. 00:11:16.240 --> 00:11:19.840 I don't think they were put in place to to be these cash cows. 00:11:19.919 --> 00:11:27.679 They were put in place to serve first-time homebuyers and to be able to help, you know, facilitate a healthy housing market. 00:11:27.840 --> 00:11:32.480 And so this is why I come back to the initial question that I started with. 00:11:32.720 --> 00:11:45.600 Are there enough people in Washington that understand that doing something like this, even a small win, not permanent, not permanent, but the impact that would make in helping the Republicans in November? 00:11:45.919 --> 00:11:48.399 See, uh I you're you're spot on, Greg. 00:11:48.559 --> 00:11:50.960 I don't think it's a matter of lack of understanding. 00:11:51.039 --> 00:11:54.480 I think it's here, here's here's the, and I gotta be careful what I say here. 00:11:54.639 --> 00:12:01.600 Look, everyone in the mortgage industry, lenders, uh, title companies, everyone, all loans are equal, okay? 00:12:01.759 --> 00:12:10.480 In a sense that you make, you know, the profits actually you make more on old, you know, existing reef, you know, existing higher cost loans. 00:12:10.639 --> 00:12:23.519 But what we tried to do in May was to focus on the real issue, which is first-time homebuyers, Gen Z, the incredible challenges that now the what the realtor said, the average first-time home buyer is now like 40. 00:12:23.600 --> 00:12:25.039 Uh, that's unacceptable. 00:12:25.200 --> 00:12:25.440 Okay. 00:12:25.840 --> 00:12:29.679 And so the the focus shouldn't be that all loans are created equal. 00:12:29.759 --> 00:12:37.519 The focus should be, like you said, that there's a higher priority for getting first-time home buyers in the market, particularly people in their 20s and 30s. 00:12:37.679 --> 00:12:39.600 That's why we've been focused on condos. 00:12:39.759 --> 00:12:41.840 Those are entry-level homes in a lot of markets. 00:12:42.000 --> 00:12:43.840 You know, you live, you live locally. 00:12:44.000 --> 00:12:45.840 A lot of young people, what can they afford? 00:12:45.919 --> 00:12:48.960 They can't afford a freestanding home in the DC area. 00:12:49.039 --> 00:12:50.080 They can afford a condo. 00:12:50.320 --> 00:12:52.799 Number two, manufactured homes in rural areas. 00:12:52.879 --> 00:12:55.679 That's that's the most affordable product. 00:12:55.840 --> 00:13:01.679 And then in these high, you know, these high-cost areas, you know, getting Fannie and Freddie back in the game. 00:13:01.840 --> 00:13:03.919 So I think that's what's needed. 00:13:04.000 --> 00:13:05.440 That's what we try to do in May. 00:13:05.519 --> 00:13:20.639 We need more people talking like you're talking to say the focus can't just be on mortgages generically, it should be on our target audience of trying to turn this around and get this generation back into home ownership. 00:13:20.960 --> 00:13:27.120 Scott, one thing that I want to point out, which which I stumbled upon, and you might stumble upon it now here. 00:13:27.440 --> 00:13:37.039 The 40-year first-time buyer age was that came from uh NAR National Association of Realtors. 00:13:37.279 --> 00:13:39.279 I I wrote about this on my LinkedIn. 00:13:39.440 --> 00:13:45.120 I believe it was a mail-in survey of like a thousand people or 5,000 people. 00:13:45.360 --> 00:13:46.639 It was something negligible. 00:13:46.720 --> 00:13:53.519 It would and then and then the press picked it up and ran with it to say that the average age is 40. 00:13:53.600 --> 00:13:59.840 Now, ICE and other people have come out and said actually the average age of the first-time homebuyer is 3233. 00:14:01.360 --> 00:14:02.559 Greg, it doesn't matter. 00:14:02.720 --> 00:14:06.159 It's it's it's higher than it was a generation ago. 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:07.919 No one disputes that, right? 00:14:08.320 --> 00:14:08.480 Yeah. 00:14:08.639 --> 00:14:13.679 So my other question is, because you've been how long have you been involved with in housing? 00:14:13.840 --> 00:14:14.559 How many years? 00:14:15.679 --> 00:14:16.080 30. 00:14:16.559 --> 00:14:16.879 Yeah. 00:14:17.039 --> 00:14:25.759 So

how does this moment compare to other moments where housing had its fair share of challenges? 00:14:26.559 --> 00:14:29.279 Oh, I'd say it's it's average. 00:14:29.519 --> 00:14:32.399 I mean, we've been through some really difficult times. 00:14:32.559 --> 00:14:35.679 Obviously, 2008 was horrendous. 00:14:35.919 --> 00:14:41.279 Um, you know, going back, I wasn't around, but you know, we went through the SNL crisis in the 80s. 00:14:41.440 --> 00:14:46.240 You know, we don't have crises along those lines, which is good. 00:14:46.639 --> 00:14:58.399 Uh so I think we just have to, you know, blocking and tackling, you know, get down to basics and and you know, talk is cheap, but these programs and the things we do make an impact. 00:14:58.559 --> 00:15:05.600 I mean, the other thing that we did in our Gen Z report, there's trillions of dollars in assets out there, okay, that could be used for down payments. 00:15:05.759 --> 00:15:10.879 But because of IRA rules and capital gains rules, people can't access them. 00:15:11.039 --> 00:15:26.960 You know, if you start working at 21 and build up a$100,000 IRA nest egg by the time you're 30, then you turn around and say, Oh, I just figured out I want to buy a home, you pay a huge penalty to um to uh to access those funds. 00:15:27.200 --> 00:15:36.480 We're we're we have a proposal to make the the rules better for getting loans from your IRA, and then you pay it back and you move on and reinvest it in stocks. 00:15:36.720 --> 00:15:44.240 So you know, you have to do the the heavy lifting, you have to do the hard work to do a double here, a single there, a triple there. 00:15:44.320 --> 00:15:49.039 And all of a sudden, whatever the age is, if it's 32, well, we can get it down to 30 or something. 00:15:49.440 --> 00:16:01.120 So, yeah, so we mentioned the 40 uh year old benchmark, and I and I agree and appreciate you're saying it doesn't really matter because it's it's so hard to get into a home right now because of so many crosswinds. 00:16:01.519 --> 00:16:02.879 Um, that's for sure. 00:16:03.120 --> 00:16:11.679 Uh Scott, I want to ask you about the administration one more time because you said we need more people like me, you just said, to speak out. 00:16:12.080 --> 00:16:18.240 The question is if we could get a symphony of people, are they listening? 00:16:18.720 --> 00:16:19.360 Yeah. 00:16:19.600 --> 00:16:20.240 Yeah. 00:16:20.559 --> 00:16:21.360 I think so. 00:16:21.600 --> 00:16:28.480 I think that uh everyone, every administration responds to number one, what are people talking about? 00:16:28.639 --> 00:16:31.519 Why, why work on stuff that no one's saying is important? 00:16:31.679 --> 00:16:35.519 So just setting the agenda, and then two, setting priorities. 00:16:35.679 --> 00:16:38.799 I mean, that's what that's what that's what we're at, CHLA. 00:16:38.879 --> 00:16:42.559 We don't believe in writing every last letter and weighing in on every last issue. 00:16:42.720 --> 00:16:57.120 We sit down every week with our members, have a call, and and they talk about what's bothering them the most, and we filter that in and set our priorities to focus on trying to move the dial in the areas that are that are that are going to make the biggest impact for our members. 00:16:57.519 --> 00:17:03.600 And you also bring your members right into the hallways where decision and policy is made. 00:17:03.679 --> 00:17:11.359 I am a member of CHLA Community Homelanders of America, and very much appreciated being walked right into uh Ginny May. 00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:16.160 I think we talked to Greg Keith, who's you know very high up in the food chain at Ginny May. 00:17:16.400 --> 00:17:18.240 This was uh last year. 00:17:18.400 --> 00:17:20.880 Um also had a meeting with FHFA. 00:17:21.119 --> 00:17:22.319 So I appreciate that. 00:17:22.480 --> 00:17:28.559 And you know, at a fraction of what you know it costs at some other um trade associations. 00:17:28.640 --> 00:17:29.839 So you guys are doing great work. 00:17:29.920 --> 00:17:31.279 You're making a tremendous impact. 00:17:31.359 --> 00:17:32.480 What are you working on right now? 00:17:32.880 --> 00:17:36.720 What's what's high on the the docket at CHLA? 00:17:37.039 --> 00:17:44.559 Funny you should ask, because in early September we're looking at unveiling uh a report, a white paper on Ginny May. 00:17:44.720 --> 00:17:50.799 Um you may remember in 2000, uh the world went to hell in a handbasket with COVID. 00:17:51.119 --> 00:18:00.000 And so, you know, issuers and Congress said to borrowers, oh, you don't have to pay your mortgage, which was an interesting perspective. 00:18:00.160 --> 00:18:04.640 Um, and so issuers were under stress from having to advance funds. 00:18:04.720 --> 00:18:10.319 I mean, remember, we asked issuers to be a banker, even though they're a non-bank to these borrowers. 00:18:10.559 --> 00:18:16.799 And so fortunately it was a strong environment for IMBs because rates were low and there was a lot of refi business. 00:18:16.880 --> 00:18:29.680 But what happens the next time that you know we have a spike in in um in um defaults, and uh issuers have to you know go back to their lenders and get more get more liquidity for that. 00:18:29.839 --> 00:18:34.480 So we're we're working on an expanded proposal for a standby liquidity facility. 00:18:34.640 --> 00:18:39.359 In other words, don't wait until the next crisis, set it ahead of time, build confidence in the system. 00:18:39.440 --> 00:18:48.160 It's a it reduces risk to Ginny, it reduces risk to bankers, it reduces risk to I to uh IMB Ginny May issuers. 00:18:48.240 --> 00:18:49.599 So we're we're coming out with that. 00:18:49.759 --> 00:19:02.640 Again, not not something that people, you know, and we're also gonna have a lot in there about what Ginny Mae is and how they operate, because I think most people in Washington, in the policy world, that's one of the areas of least understanding. 00:19:02.960 -->

00:19:24.880 Yeah, so let me just throw a broad blanket on this from the lens of my of anyone out there, probably I would say the majority of people probably think, all right, Fanny, Freddie, Ginny, government entities, they're probably all equally collateralized and uh you know all there. 00:19:26.160 --> 00:19:26.880 Getting choked up here. 00:19:26.960 --> 00:19:29.119 This I'm I'm maybe I'm about to get emotional. 00:19:29.359 --> 00:19:31.759 Uh I just have a little phlegm going on, Scott. 00:19:31.839 --> 00:19:32.559 So please forgive me. 00:19:32.640 --> 00:19:35.519 I'm gonna I'm gonna do a one throat clear here, you know? 00:19:35.599 --> 00:19:36.799 So I'm sorry, pause. 00:19:37.359 --> 00:19:39.119 We no, you know, no pause, no pause. 00:19:39.200 --> 00:19:41.839 I want to be as real as my audience wants me to be real, Scott. 00:19:41.920 --> 00:19:48.960 So I'm just gonna give it one because otherwise, you know, you get in these conversations with people like and then every 15 to 20 seconds they do that. 00:19:49.119 --> 00:19:50.799 Why not just one big clear? 00:19:50.960 --> 00:19:51.920 I'm gonna give it a clear. 00:19:52.000 --> 00:19:52.480 You ready? 00:19:52.640 --> 00:19:53.039 Yep. 00:19:55.599 --> 00:19:56.240 You see that? 00:19:56.640 --> 00:19:56.799 Okay. 00:19:56.960 --> 00:19:58.720 How much better does my voice sound now? 00:19:59.119 --> 00:20:01.119 You look you sound like an announcer. 00:20:01.440 --> 00:20:02.400 Oh, thank you very much. 00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:05.039 All right, so anyway, broad blanket. 00:20:05.440 --> 00:20:14.000 What why is Ginny so much different in terms of being insulated and and capitalized than um Fannie and Freddie? 00:20:14.480 --> 00:20:19.759 So it's like it's not even apples and oranges, it's like avocados and steak. 00:20:19.839 --> 00:20:20.319 I don't know. 00:20:20.480 --> 00:20:26.160 Um, the you know, Fannie and Freddie, they're in a lot of ways an insurance company. 00:20:26.240 --> 00:20:29.519 They buy huge slogs of mortgage loans and they have the risk. 00:20:29.599 --> 00:20:35.920 So in 2008, when when prices went down and mortgages went to a hell in a handbasket, they lost money. 00:20:36.160 --> 00:20:36.480 Okay. 00:20:37.039 --> 00:20:40.960 How much money do you think Ginny Mae lost in 2008 and 2009? 00:20:41.200 --> 00:20:50.240 The answer is they made money because they don't buy mortgages, they securitize FHA loans, which are already guarantees. 00:20:50.319 --> 00:20:54.640 They securitize VA loans, which are already guaranteed, they securitize RHS loans. 00:20:54.880 --> 00:20:58.480 So the risk is exceedingly low for them. 00:20:58.640 --> 00:21:05.039 They make money, they've made money every year for the last 20 years, except one year when they lost$30 million or something like that. 00:21:05.279 --> 00:21:13.519 So the issue is they're there for a purpose, they're there to facilitate a broad market of competitors. 00:21:13.680 --> 00:21:16.559 In other

words, that's why we exist as an organization. 00:21:16.720 --> 00:21:20.079 We represent primarily small and mid-sized IMBs. 00:21:20.160 --> 00:21:23.680 And we think that consumers benefit by having a lot of us. 00:21:23.920 --> 00:21:36.960 And one of the ways, like in 2000, honestly, a lot of the aggregators, because of forbearance and other things, they, you know, they some of them dropped out for a while, some of them had really poor pricing. 00:21:37.119 --> 00:21:45.920 But it was the your like your firm and others that were in the market, you know, doing directly through Jimmy May that kept a competitive market. 00:21:46.000 --> 00:21:49.680 And that's what we that's why we're focusing on this issue. 00:21:51.920 --> 00:21:54.480 I don't know that I fully understand that answer. 00:21:55.039 --> 00:22:01.680 Well, I mean, if it worked, you in other words, you're saying there's a need to Set up a backstop just in case. 00:22:01.759 --> 00:22:03.519 So you don't have to panic and get that. 00:22:03.680 --> 00:22:04.640 That makes great sense. 00:22:04.720 --> 00:22:09.920 But then in the other breath, you say that they've only lost money once over the last 30 years or so. 00:22:10.000 --> 00:22:11.039 So what's broken? 00:22:11.119 --> 00:22:14.559 If I mean that's a pretty good track record, 29 out of 30 is pretty good. 00:22:14.880 --> 00:22:19.119 Because their making money is not the same as having a broad base of issuers. 00:22:19.279 --> 00:22:31.759 And if they decide to be uh, you know, excessively conservative and crack down on issuers when you get to that market, then you're gonna have uh, you know, people out of the market. 00:22:32.160 --> 00:22:33.279 All right, that's a great answer. 00:22:33.440 --> 00:22:40.000 I the the uh the other side of this coin is are you why now are are you fearful? 00:22:40.160 --> 00:22:53.839 Do you think, based on the history of you knowing the market and the trajectory and energy prices and recessions and all that stuff, that we could be heading to a moment where we're gonna need to make sure that's in place? 00:22:54.799 --> 00:22:59.279 I think it's I think it's an it's important enough to try to push for that. 00:22:59.359 --> 00:23:03.599 I mean, we're just we're not asking them to put it in place, we're asking them to to do some real work. 00:23:03.680 --> 00:23:05.279 In other words, figure out who should fund it. 00:23:05.359 --> 00:23:09.759 Should it be the Federal Home Loan Bank lending the banks or should it be the Federal Reserve? 00:23:10.319 --> 00:23:12.079 But do you think we're heading towards another crisis? 00:23:12.160 --> 00:23:13.839 Do you think I have no idea? 00:23:14.079 --> 00:23:14.559 Well, I do. 00:23:15.279 --> 00:23:15.920 I do, I do. 00:23:16.480 --> 00:23:17.119 Maybe you think. 00:23:17.200 --> 00:23:18.400 But here's the point. 00:23:18.640 --> 00:23:33.440 I was there, I worked on the Financial Services Committee during 2008, and the the the mortgage business went to hell in a handbasket, and we we came up with huge programs like HAMP and HARP in 20 days, okay? 00:23:33.680 --> 00:23:35.119 And could we have done better? 00:23:35.279 --> 00:23:41.920 Of course we could have, because we waited until there was a crisis to figure out how to deal with what a crisis would look like. 00:23:42.079 --> 00:23:44.400 So let's do some thinking ahead of time. 00:23:44.640 --> 00:23:50.319 So the next crisis, which might not be for 20 years, or it might be next year, who knows? 00:23:50.559 --> 00:23:55.359 So we're ready, and and that we, you know, that that's our that's our point. 00:23:55.440 --> 00:23:58.079 It's well something something has to give. 00:23:58.720 --> 00:23:59.759 Something has to give. 00:24:00.640 --> 00:24:15.839 Meaning you've got hot inflation, uh consumer sentiments terrible, uh debt is awful, delinquencies are going up, uh, gas prices are up, like if something has got to break. 00:24:16.480 --> 00:24:17.039 It will break. 00:24:17.119 --> 00:24:17.920 Something will break, right? 00:24:18.000 --> 00:24:19.119 It just is factual. 00:24:19.440 --> 00:24:22.160 Never in the history of mankind has something not broken. 00:24:22.559 --> 00:24:23.920 So what is it gonna be? 00:24:24.000 --> 00:24:34.319 And for me, I think it's gonna be uh the consumer is just gonna absolutely capitulate uh and and it's gonna make it harder to make mortgage payments. 00:24:35.039 --> 00:24:42.720 And when you don't make mortgage payments, defaults go up and eventually you you know typically head into a recession, rates go down. 00:24:43.119 --> 00:24:45.759 So I mean, you know that you know, you know this, right? 00:24:46.079 --> 00:24:50.240 And that's so I so I think that you know, I appreciate the work that you're doing. 00:24:50.319 --> 00:24:52.160 I'm just one opinion, obviously. 00:24:52.400 --> 00:25:03.759 Um I appreciate the work you're doing because I I don't know how it's gonna manifest itself, but it will be good if we get into a mode where that next crisis is closer than we think, and we have we have a facility in place. 00:25:03.920 --> 00:25:06.079 So thank you for the work that you're doing to that end. 00:25:06.400 --> 00:25:14.640 Um even though you don't necessarily agree with my thesis, although I'll ask you what do you think what do you think will break? 00:25:14.799 --> 00:25:20.160 I mean, is it gonna be um is it gonna be infl inflation? 00:25:20.240 --> 00:25:21.839 Is it gonna be wages? 00:25:22.000 --> 00:25:23.440 Is it gonna be house prices? 00:25:23.599 --> 00:25:26.400 Like what what of the options there are? 00:25:26.799 --> 00:25:29.039 Did you have any kind of a gut feel? 00:25:30.240 --> 00:25:33.519 Well, I think that I mean, I don't know, I'm just drawing on experience. 00:25:33.599 --> 00:25:48.559 I I remember in the in the 90s, you know, in the 80s and 90s, I mean going through the cycle, you know, prices went up and up and up, and and like in here, and then all

of a sudden in '88, here in Washington, they stopped. 00:25:48.640 --> 00:25:53.680 In other words, and then 10 years later, prices were the same or lower, and that's how they adjusted. 00:25:53.759 --> 00:25:55.279 So that's kind of my best guess. 00:25:55.359 --> 00:26:00.559 I don't really understand that things are gonna be soft for an extended period of time. 00:26:00.799 --> 00:26:01.440 Yeah. 00:26:02.640 --> 00:26:05.519 What's it costing to fill up your tank these days? 00:26:06.319 --> 00:26:08.880 Uh four uh four dollars. 00:26:09.759 --> 00:26:10.559 Oh, I see. 00:26:11.359 --> 00:26:12.480 Oh, four dollars a gallon. 00:26:12.559 --> 00:26:12.880 Sorry. 00:26:13.119 --> 00:26:14.400 I was gonna say four dollars, man. 00:26:14.559 --> 00:26:16.240 What are you were you riding a tricycle to work? 00:26:16.319 --> 00:26:16.960 What's going on here? 00:26:17.039 --> 00:26:19.519 Um, is that just it only costs 12 bucks? 00:26:19.599 --> 00:26:25.200 I wait until the things this far above E, and then I put in three gallons, and then you know, two hours ago. 00:26:25.359 --> 00:26:27.200 Have you ever have you ever run out of gas? 00:26:27.519 --> 00:26:33.119 Just in the mountains of Arizona, driving across country from uh LA to Washington. 00:26:33.200 --> 00:26:33.920 It was not a good time. 00:26:34.000 --> 00:26:35.119 This was like Well, what happened? 00:26:35.279 --> 00:26:35.759 What happened? 00:26:36.079 --> 00:26:36.799 Walk us through it. 00:26:36.960 --> 00:26:38.240 This was before cell phones. 00:26:38.400 --> 00:26:42.640 A trucker gave us a ride, and then a trucker drove us back to with a gas can. 00:26:42.799 --> 00:26:44.720 So I I didn't I learned my lesson. 00:26:44.799 --> 00:26:47.119 I don't I don't think I've run out of gas since then. 00:26:47.200 --> 00:26:49.200 But I've run out of gas once. 00:26:49.519 --> 00:26:50.799 Yeah, it's the worst feeling. 00:26:50.960 --> 00:26:56.400 You know, because you all because well, because you always assume like you get the car, they're like, Oh yeah, when it's empty, it's not really empty. 00:26:56.480 --> 00:26:57.440 There's this reserve tank. 00:26:57.519 --> 00:27:00.160 So you always think that you can kind of straddle that. 00:27:00.400 --> 00:27:01.680 And it's the it's the worst. 00:27:01.839 --> 00:27:07.519 The only thing worse than that is is when that uh deflated tire indicator comes on your dashboard. 00:27:07.759 --> 00:27:08.160 Oh, yeah. 00:27:08.319 --> 00:27:09.359 That's that sucks. 00:27:09.519 --> 00:27:12.160 Yeah, you gotta get out, you gotta see how fast is it deflating. 00:27:12.240 --> 00:27:14.799 You know, I carry an air pump in my truck now, just in case. 00:27:15.359 --> 00:27:19.680 Greg, has anyone, uh anyone in your audience not run out of gas once in their life? 00:27:19.759 --> 00:27:20.799 I mean that's a great question. 00:27:20.880 --> 00:27:22.799 I'm gonna bring this up on no surrender today. 00:27:22.960 --> 00:27:24.079 That's that's

a really good one. 00:27:24.240 --> 00:27:25.119 Thank you for that. 00:27:25.279 --> 00:27:27.440 You know what else I'm gonna bring up on No Surrender? 00:27:27.680 --> 00:27:31.119 Okay, um I'm like thinking of these quirky things. 00:27:31.359 --> 00:27:32.640 This is totally one off. 00:27:32.720 --> 00:27:33.599 I'm gonna catch you off guard. 00:27:33.680 --> 00:27:46.960 If you're in a grocery market, yeah, you're in a grocery store, and you walk up to a bag of grapes, is it okay to stick your hand in and grab a grape out and test it out to see if it has the level of sweetness that you need? 00:27:48.079 --> 00:27:52.400 Yeah, as long as you leave two pennies on the I'm serious, because I do that. 00:27:52.480 --> 00:27:53.839 I take a grape out of every bag. 00:27:54.000 --> 00:27:54.400 Do you? 00:27:54.640 --> 00:27:54.799 No. 00:27:55.039 --> 00:27:55.599 Are you gonna deny? 00:27:55.839 --> 00:27:58.319 Are you gonna deny that you've never taken a grape out? 00:27:58.559 --> 00:28:03.680 No, I get I buy the raspberries in the little bat in the little boxes, and so I just look at them. 00:28:03.759 --> 00:28:05.759 That's all I'm not a big grape person. 00:28:06.000 --> 00:28:07.200 What about cherries? 00:28:07.599 --> 00:28:08.079 Same thing. 00:28:08.960 --> 00:28:10.559 I'm can't always apples. 00:28:10.720 --> 00:28:15.680 Do you ever pick up the apples and like push your thumb into it to see if there are any soft spots? 00:28:16.160 --> 00:28:18.559 I'm gonna have to plead the fifth here on that one. 00:28:18.880 --> 00:28:20.160 Okay, yeah, I thought so. 00:28:20.400 --> 00:28:21.839 Um, all right. 00:28:21.920 --> 00:28:27.279 So so there's also um this topic you wanted to talk about break through the noise. 00:28:27.519 --> 00:28:28.079 Yeah. 00:28:28.400 --> 00:28:29.440 What is that? 00:28:29.759 --> 00:28:34.559 So, all of your listeners, you know, you you're in the mortgage business. 00:28:34.640 --> 00:28:41.759 And so uh one of the things I've learned over 30 years is everyone sort of thinks that that's what people are focused on, what they do. 00:28:41.920 --> 00:28:59.200 But in fact, Washington is this just cauldron of noise where you've got interest representing the securities industry, insurance, banking, uh, you know, all these different products, and they're all fighting to talk about themselves and talk about who they are. 00:28:59.279 --> 00:29:02.000 And then in mortgages, you have different players. 00:29:02.079 --> 00:29:10.480 And so the only the main reason CHLA was formed is we wanted to make sure there was an organization that exclusively represented IMBs. 00:29:10.720 --> 00:29:15.359 And since we've done that, we've we've gone now, we're like over 80% of the market. 00:29:15.440 --> 00:29:24.400 And so, but but we try to get out there and educate people about why IMBs are important, um, knock down myths. 00:29:24.480 --> 00:29:30.319 There are people are always running around saying we're gonna, you know, devastate the market because we're unsafe. 00:29:30.559 --> 00:29:37.279 Um, and then you know, fight for issues from a particularly distinct IMB perspective. 00:29:37.359 --> 00:29:38.799 But we don't kid ourselves. 00:29:38.960 --> 00:29:41.440 There's a lot of competition out there for attention. 00:29:41.519 --> 00:29:46.319 And so we need everyone to, you know, talk to their own members of Congress. 00:29:46.480 --> 00:29:51.839 We need everyone to be, well, not everyone to have their own talk show like you do, but you know, more of that. 00:29:51.920 --> 00:29:52.880 That's helpful. 00:29:53.119 --> 00:29:54.720 That's really helpful. 00:29:55.759 --> 00:30:05.359 So in in reading through some of the uh notes here, um, there's a line in here that IMB originators face Safe Act testing and licensing. 00:30:05.440 --> 00:30:07.440 Bank originators are exempt. 00:30:07.680 --> 00:30:09.599 Are you looking to do something about that? 00:30:09.759 --> 00:30:11.839 Are you looking to level that up in some way? 00:30:12.160 --> 00:30:13.200 We think it should be. 00:30:13.279 --> 00:30:18.160 We don't understand why they can't just be required to take the the SAFAC test. 00:30:18.319 --> 00:30:27.279 I mean, there's thousands of banks, there's thousands of loan originators that work for banks that fail the SAFAC test and they're allowed to be registered. 00:30:27.599 --> 00:30:28.319 Go figure. 00:30:28.559 --> 00:30:33.279 Well, they're also allowed, you know, LOs at banks, it's my understanding they can have terrible credit too. 00:30:33.359 --> 00:30:34.799 You can't if you're an IMB. 00:30:35.599 --> 00:30:38.319 Well, we don't think we want to move in the other direction on that. 00:30:38.400 --> 00:30:41.920 We don't think that credit should be a basis for getting a license. 00:30:42.000 --> 00:30:57.680 You know, having some uh, you know, healthcare problem in the past should be Well, the the R the argument is if you can't take care of your own credit, how are you going to advise other people to do that with the biggest decision of their life? 00:30:57.839 --> 00:31:01.359 That would be what the pundits would respond with. 00:31:02.319 --> 00:31:06.400 Okay, well, I I'm not sure I agree with that, but it should be a level playing field. 00:31:06.480 --> 00:31:07.519 That's our that's our point. 00:31:07.599 --> 00:31:08.880 It should be a level playing field. 00:31:08.960 --> 00:31:14.480 It's just hard though, because the the the fiction is that these you know banks never have problems. 00:31:14.640 --> 00:31:16.079 Well, yeah. 00:31:16.640 --> 00:31:18.079 Let's talk about condos. 00:31:18.640 --> 00:31:19.279 Yep. 00:31:19.759 --> 00:31:25.599 I mean, uh this this is a I'm not sure that all the numbers have worked their way through the system. 00:31:25.759 --> 00:31:29.920 They probably have not, but limited review is gone. 00:31:30.000 --> 00:31:33.440 Uh reserves have gone from 10 to 15 percent. 00:31:34.160 --> 00:31:37.519 Uh

what do you feel like the ramifications are going to be? 00:31:37.599 --> 00:31:38.480 When will we feel it? 00:31:38.559 --> 00:31:40.240 And what do you want to do about it? 00:31:40.640 --> 00:31:46.079 Well, that's the that's the problem, is you know, it won't be that readily apparent to people on the outside. 00:31:46.240 --> 00:31:50.000 So we we we need to speak up about the impact this is having. 00:31:50.160 --> 00:31:52.880 So we've been out in front on this for a long time. 00:31:53.039 --> 00:31:59.920 I mean, they did some good things earlier this summer with insurance requirements, a little more flexibility on replacement cost and so on. 00:32:00.160 --> 00:32:04.000 But um, the limited review is is a big deal for us. 00:32:04.160 --> 00:32:08.000 Um, we think the complaints are gonna escalate as time goes on. 00:32:08.240 --> 00:32:11.279 Uh, we we're searching for some sort of compromise. 00:32:11.440 --> 00:32:14.960 I mean, they're saying that it shouldn't be a you know, no review. 00:32:15.039 --> 00:32:16.799 We're saying that maybe we can streamline. 00:32:17.039 --> 00:32:20.720 We're trying to figure that one out and see whether we can come back with a compromise. 00:32:20.880 --> 00:32:26.880 On the replacement reserves, that's a big deal, and that's gonna play out over the next year. 00:32:26.960 --> 00:32:33.519 We've been working closely with the Community Associations Institute, which is the top group representing condo owners. 00:32:33.680 --> 00:32:41.920 We kind of leave that issue to them, but uh we think this is gonna mean that you know the the dues at these condo associations are gonna go up. 00:32:42.000 --> 00:32:44.079 It's gonna make it hard to qualify for a loan. 00:32:44.240 --> 00:32:47.759 So we're we're trying to keep this issue on the front burner, and we're not afraid. 00:32:47.839 --> 00:32:55.200 We weer edited a letter with CAI with the mortgage brokers in July saying that they should you know revisit these issues. 00:32:55.519 --> 00:32:57.680 Do you have any sense as to what drove this? 00:32:58.720 --> 00:33:00.480 I mean, it starts with surfside. 00:33:00.640 --> 00:33:11.039 I mean, it starts with surfside, which was you know a geographic regional thing where uh you know a pool flooded the the place and collapsed a building. 00:33:11.200 --> 00:33:17.279 But since then, I think Fannie and Freddie have have done a deep dive on saying we don't we're not sure we understand what's going on. 00:33:17.440 --> 00:33:21.839 You know, there's like 50,000 uh associations across the country. 00:33:21.920 --> 00:33:26.240 It's hard to get a handle on you know which ones are well managed and which ones aren't. 00:33:26.400 --> 00:33:29.680 So policies, the right level of oversight is hard. 00:33:29.920 --> 00:33:33.279 Yeah, I mean, like we we do a lot of condos here uh at NFM. 00:33:33.359 --> 00:33:36.160 We have our own condo desk and condo reviews and all that stuff. 00:33:36.240 --> 00:33:44.400 And our limited reviews performed better than our full reviews, yeah. 00:33:44.640 --> 00:33:47.039 So wouldn't that be a smart place to start? 00:33:47.200 --> 00:33:49.119 Hey, what's performing and what's not? 00:33:49.440 --> 00:33:58.000 That's absolutely um the other thing, you know, and we're criticizing Fannie and Freddie, but you know, in some ways, FHA is is even more restrictive. 00:33:58.079 --> 00:34:06.400 And so we called a year or two ago, we were asking them, why don't you like if Fanny or Freddie have approved a project, why don't you make a loan against it? 00:34:06.480 --> 00:34:11.599 Why do we have all these different agencies, different processes that are so distinct? 00:34:11.760 --> 00:34:15.280 So this is a big issue, and we're gonna keep talking about it. 00:34:17.760 --> 00:34:19.199 Have we left anything on the table here? 00:34:19.360 --> 00:34:22.480 Anything else you want to talk about before I uh bid you ado? 00:34:23.039 --> 00:34:24.000 I don't think so. 00:34:24.239 --> 00:34:28.480 Uh just you were talking about the you know breaking through the noise. 00:34:28.639 --> 00:34:32.159 I mean, we've been trying to uh do that last week. 00:34:32.239 --> 00:34:38.559 We wrote a letter, you know, going back on the you know, you just sort of it's like Sisyphus pushing something up a hill on some of these. 00:34:38.639 --> 00:34:43.840 You know, we're saying that IMB should be eligible for federal home loan advances, but at a time. 00:34:43.920 --> 00:34:44.719 Oh, yeah, let's talk about that. 00:34:44.800 --> 00:34:45.039 Yeah, yeah. 00:34:45.119 --> 00:34:46.480 I'm sorry, I meant to bring that up. 00:34:46.639 --> 00:34:47.519 What is that? 00:34:48.159 --> 00:34:50.159 So explain explain that. 00:34:50.239 --> 00:34:52.559 What is what is it and why should the industry care? 00:34:52.800 --> 00:34:56.000 The federal home loan bank is the sort of the hidden GSE. 00:34:56.079 --> 00:35:01.440 No one focuses on them, they make advances, collateralized advances to banks for the mortgages. 00:35:01.599 --> 00:35:05.599 Well, basically, banks aren't doing mortgages anymore. 00:35:05.840 --> 00:35:18.239 Uh, so what we've said is, and this goes back to the Gini issue, is why not create a collateralized project that's funded by the federal home loan banks and they funnel them through the banks. 00:35:18.400 --> 00:35:23.360 The banks do the underwriting, but they do collateralized advances to help with Ginny advances. 00:35:23.519 --> 00:35:30.960 We just think that the federal home loan bank should be more focused on where the mortgages are being made, which is non-banks. 00:35:31.440 --> 00:35:36.000 So that anyway, and how will how will that help IMBs? 00:35:36.800 --> 00:35:40.000 Because we'll get more credit and more liquidity into the system. 00:35:40.239 --> 00:35:44.320 Will it will it will it add product or just more capital? 00:35:44.639 --> 00:35:45.840 Just more capital, yeah. 00:35:46.159 --> 00:35:47.599 More

more more financing. 00:35:47.920 --> 00:35:52.800 So how how old were you when you first stepped foot into the capital? 00:35:54.159 --> 00:35:56.400 But then you're gonna be able to figure out how old I am. 00:35:56.480 --> 00:35:57.280 No, I'm not gonna go there. 00:35:57.360 --> 00:35:59.039 I'm not gonna ask for the year. 00:36:00.559 --> 00:36:02.639 It was 30 years 30 years ago. 00:36:02.880 --> 00:36:04.480 33 years ago. 00:36:04.800 --> 00:36:05.679 I started working. 00:36:06.559 --> 00:36:10.079 That you say you first stepped foot in the Capitol 33 years ago. 00:36:10.239 --> 00:36:11.440 So who is the most sorry? 00:36:11.519 --> 00:36:12.960 I lied 34 years ago. 00:36:13.199 --> 00:36:18.559 Who's the most famous politician you ever you've you've met through your Capitol Hill days? 00:36:19.039 --> 00:36:20.480 Bill Clinton, I guess. 00:36:20.800 --> 00:36:22.079 What was he like? 00:36:23.119 --> 00:36:24.400 He was smooth. 00:36:26.800 --> 00:36:29.599 I'll say but he just turned 80. 00:36:30.000 --> 00:36:38.639 I went to uh I went to uh the memorial service on the hill for uh for Barney Frank a couple weeks ago, and he showed up and made a speech. 00:36:38.800 --> 00:36:42.239 He's still he's he's aging, but he still kind of got it. 00:36:42.559 --> 00:36:43.599 He's still got it. 00:36:43.760 --> 00:36:44.079 Yeah. 00:36:44.320 --> 00:36:45.920 Uh are you a historian? 00:36:46.239 --> 00:36:50.639 My father was a history professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. 00:36:50.800 --> 00:36:51.119 Why? 00:36:51.360 --> 00:36:52.880 And you went to Stanford, right? 00:36:53.039 --> 00:36:53.920 Yeah, yeah. 00:36:54.159 --> 00:36:55.440 Oh, you've done your work. 00:36:55.760 --> 00:36:57.760 That's a pretty good school, I hear. 00:36:58.159 --> 00:37:04.400 But I think history is history is uh, you know, nothing ever is really new. 00:37:04.480 --> 00:37:20.800 I mean, you know, we had that we had the SNL crisis in the 80s into the early 90s, and a lot of these lessons, you know, the the the Silicon Valley Bank, it was just the SNL crisis revisited in a different form 40 years later. 00:37:21.360 --> 00:37:23.760 A lot of this stuff just keeps repeating itself. 00:37:24.000 --> 00:37:26.880 Yeah, well, you wonder what what is going to be the next crisis. 00:37:27.039 --> 00:37:28.719 I feel like we're right, we're sitting right there, right? 00:37:29.039 --> 00:37:32.800 It's sound like you've done a lot more work than a lot of people in figuring that out. 00:37:33.119 --> 00:37:33.920 I think we're sitting. 00:37:34.000 --> 00:37:35.760 I mean, there's this thing, misery on the eights. 00:37:35.920 --> 00:37:43.119 Stan Middleman wrote about it in his uh biography, which was released last year, seeing around corners. 00:37:43.280 --> 00:37:43.679 Yeah. 00:37:43.920 --> 00:37:50.719 And historically, if you look at the last three decades or so, there has been something not good that has happened around the eights. 00:37:50.880 --> 00:37:57.280 You know, you mentioned 2008 and the financial crisis, 2018, COVID started to percolate. 00:37:57.360 --> 00:38:04.159 And, you know, this 2028, there's gonna be a reversal of home values, I'm telling you right now. 00:38:04.400 --> 00:38:10.960 So we're gonna go into a recession and rates are gonna go down, and it's gonna start the refi cycle, and that's what is gonna happen. 00:38:11.119 --> 00:38:15.840 Um I know I'm saying it as if I've seen it already, but look, you're talking about history. 00:38:15.920 --> 00:38:16.719 That's history. 00:38:16.960 --> 00:38:31.599 Well, my only take is, and this is me talking, not Claude, um, that the the the one of the big problems is that they're throwing so much money at AI, and a lot of this is private capital through you know private equity funding. 00:38:31.679 --> 00:38:33.360 And what happens if that implodes? 00:38:33.440 --> 00:38:35.199 I mean, when are the profits gonna come? 00:38:35.360 --> 00:38:39.119 Is there gonna be I mean, we see this in a lot of new burgeoning technologies? 00:38:39.280 --> 00:38:44.239 You have a you can have a bubble and then the Well, I think I just gonna accelerate unemployment, right? 00:38:44.400 --> 00:38:48.320 If it turns out to be something real, I mean, either way, we're hosed. 00:38:48.480 --> 00:38:52.880 If it turns out to be something really great, then it's gonna replace a lot of jobs. 00:38:53.039 --> 00:38:54.960 The unemployment rate is gonna go up. 00:38:55.119 --> 00:39:00.960 If it turns out to be a complete bust, all these big tech companies are gonna go belly up or whatever. 00:39:01.039 --> 00:39:02.320 They're gonna have a lot of distress. 00:39:02.480 --> 00:39:10.239 That's gonna impact people's 401ks, their confidence, uh, it's gonna erode um their uh their net worth. 00:39:10.320 --> 00:39:12.159 Like none of none of those scenarios are good. 00:39:12.239 --> 00:39:18.239 It just feels like we've been spinning around in this cocoon of shit for you know four or five years. 00:39:18.320 --> 00:39:20.800 And eventually just the bottom's gonna fall out. 00:39:21.039 --> 00:39:29.679 And uh my prediction is that bottom is gonna be a pretty severe recession and and that um people are gonna stop making their payments on their mortgages. 00:39:29.760 --> 00:39:36.480 I mean, I'm I'm already getting reports from a lot of people um in the mortgage business that that are making loans every day, Scott. 00:39:36.559 --> 00:39:44.559 This is something for you to track that there are more and more people calling up their loan officers saying, I'm desperate, help me. 00:39:44.719 --> 00:39:46.559 Can you do a cash out loan for me? 00:39:46.719 --> 00:39:56.559 Um and there's also uh reportedly, uh, at least in my circles, a record number of people that are making their mortgage payments later and later in the month. 00:39:57.119 --> 00:39:59.840 So they're going past their grace period of the 15th. 00:40:00.000 -->

00:40:07.360 Many people are now making them on the 22nd, the 23rd, the 24th, where they're not quite 30 days late, so it's not going to show up. 00:40:08.079 --> 00:40:12.000 But you're right on the precipice of them having to make a very serious decision. 00:40:12.079 --> 00:40:15.840 You know, and I heard food on my table, is it gas in my tank? 00:40:16.000 --> 00:40:17.760 Is it my mortgage payment? 00:40:18.079 --> 00:40:26.880 Well, I heard the other day that uh credit card debt is what, up 60% in whatever it's all-time record, it's well over a trillion, yeah, well over a trillion dollars. 00:40:27.199 --> 00:40:37.039 You know, it's it's and and that's there's a lot of people over the years that have said that the simple, you know, underwriting criteria that there's there's there's more inclusive ways of measuring this. 00:40:37.119 --> 00:40:42.719 But obviously, if people are stressed by you know growing debt, and you know, same thing with auto loans. 00:40:42.800 --> 00:40:45.280 It's like everyone they're talking about now seven-year loans. 00:40:45.360 --> 00:40:49.599 You're talking about uh, you know, prices are at unprecedented levels for cars. 00:40:49.760 --> 00:40:51.679 So people are carry a lot of debt. 00:40:51.760 --> 00:40:57.599 Obviously, they the last thing they want to do is default on their mortgage, but at a certain point, like you say, what can they do? 00:40:59.599 --> 00:41:01.519 So will you so you'll have me back? 00:41:01.840 --> 00:41:06.159 Will you have me back for another interview when some of the stuff that you're saying comes about? 00:41:07.360 --> 00:41:08.079 Yeah, of course. 00:41:08.159 --> 00:41:09.119 I love having you on here. 00:41:09.199 --> 00:41:10.320 You're you went to Stanford. 00:41:10.400 --> 00:41:11.679 How could I not have you on? 00:41:11.920 --> 00:41:13.920 I barely I barely made it through Maryland. 00:41:14.000 --> 00:41:15.679 I'm I'm surprised you even talk to me. 00:41:15.760 --> 00:41:16.880 I'm so dumb. 00:41:17.280 --> 00:41:19.039 You're you're obviously very smart. 00:41:19.199 --> 00:41:29.119 Uh, so you know, I'm I'm I'm usually intimidated when I talk to people from Harvard, Stanford, you know, the Ivies, but you, you know, you you have a way of putting you have a way of putting everyone at ease. 00:41:29.280 --> 00:41:31.440 I don't feel like you're judging me intellectually. 00:41:31.599 --> 00:41:32.400 So thank you for that. 00:41:32.480 --> 00:41:33.280 I appreciate that. 00:41:33.440 --> 00:41:38.159 Give me a quick thought on the deficit reaching$40 trillion. 00:41:39.519 --> 00:41:49.360 Well, I just, you know, I went to business school and I everything they taught me was a bunch of lies when they said, well, at a certain point you borrow so much money, rates have to go through the roof. 00:41:49.440 --> 00:41:51.199 And maybe that's starting to happen. 00:41:51.440 --> 00:41:54.559 But uh we we gotta we gotta fix Social Security. 00:41:54.719 --> 00:41:59.440 I mean, it's six years away from you know running out of money. 00:41:59.599 --> 00:42:03.920 And we gotta fix, we gotta, and neither party cares about the deficit. 00:42:04.239 --> 00:42:10.000 The the Republicans think you should just keep cutting taxes, and the Democrats think you should just keep spending money. 00:42:10.159 --> 00:42:13.039 And uh so I I don't know. 00:42:13.199 --> 00:42:21.599 That's you know, the only thing that's gonna change that is when foreigner when foreign investors start saying no mass. 00:42:21.920 --> 00:42:23.199 Yeah, exactly. 00:42:23.440 --> 00:42:30.960 Or, you know, when the when when the yen capitulates or uh yeah, you know, all these foreign entities just take all their money out of our treasuries. 00:42:31.039 --> 00:42:32.000 There's a lot going on for sure. 00:42:32.079 --> 00:42:37.280 Scott Olson, executive director of CHLA, Community Homelenders of America. 00:42:37.440 --> 00:42:39.199 I am a proud member. 00:42:39.360 --> 00:42:41.679 This is a great trade group to be a part of. 00:42:42.000 --> 00:42:42.320 Thank you. 00:42:42.480 --> 00:42:45.440 Not exp not expensive either, and you get a seat at the table. 00:42:45.599 --> 00:42:46.639 I can speak to that. 00:42:46.719 --> 00:42:50.239 Every Tuesday at noon, we all sit around and everyone has a voice. 00:42:50.400 --> 00:42:51.280 Very impactful. 00:42:51.440 --> 00:42:54.960 Thank you for the work you're doing and for your time here on one-on-one. 00:42:55.519 --> 00:42:57.199 As always, great to be on. 00:42:57.440 --> 00:42:58.960 All right, see you again next Monday, everyone. 00:42:59.119 --> 00:42:59.440 So long. 00:42:59.519 --> 00:43:00.480 Have a great week.