After Some Big CFB Upsets, Who Do We Still Have Confidence In? の全文書き起こし

00:03:56.319 that that program has. And then the comeback win for 72 00:03:56.719 --> 00:04:00.560 against army. Okay. Maybe South Florida getting the conference when 73 00:04:01.139 --> 00:04:04.139 finding a rhythm a little bit, maybe, and then Delaware 74 00:04:04.199 --> 00:04:06.710 state taking care of business there. And then bowling green, 75 00:04:06.759 --> 00:04:11.479 that game really told me that USF had some flaws 76 00:04:11.539 --> 00:04:15.099 to deal with because South Florida needed to score 14 77 00:04:15.099 --> 00:04:17.139 points in the fourth quarter to come back and win 78 00:04:17.259 --> 00:04:21.220 against a Bowling Green team that hasn't been great. And then, 79 00:04:21.240 --> 00:04:24.829 you know, if all those flaws kind of showed up 80 00:04:24.889 --> 00:04:28.750 against Temple, not able to get enough points on the 81 00:04:28.790 --> 00:04:31.290 board to take down the Owls. And now USF is 82 00:04:31.350 --> 00:04:34.750 four and one and one and one in conference play. 83 00:04:34.769 --> 00:04:39.649 And yeah, Yeah, South Florida dropped quite a bit in 84 00:04:39.730 --> 00:04:46.860 our G6 rankings this week. They went from being in 85 00:04:46.879 --> 00:04:51.360 the top 10 from 7th to 13th. So, Steve, what 86 00:04:51.379 --> 00:04:52.519 do you think of the Bulls right now? 87 00:04:53.319 --> 00:04:55.019 They need to learn how to start a football game. 88 00:04:55.540 --> 00:04:59.160 Against four FBS opponents this year, they've been outscored and 89 00:04:59.199 --> 00:05:00.779 first have 68-19. 68-19, and their only loss is four 90 00:05:00.839 --> 00:05:07.889 points to Temple. That's how bad things have been in 91 00:05:08.189 --> 00:05:11.250 the opening halves for them. But the difference in that 92 00:05:11.290 --> 00:05:14.129 Temple game was their lack of the usual fourth quarter 93 00:05:14.149 --> 00:05:16.490 surge where the fourth quarter was their highest scoring game 94 00:05:16.550 --> 00:05:18.709 in each of their first four contests. And they didn't 95 00:05:18.750 --> 00:05:21.170 have that against Temple. They lost that quarter seven to three, 96 00:05:21.230 --> 00:05:23.529 allowing a Johnny Shepard to run for that 34 yard 97 00:05:23.569 --> 00:05:27.170 touchdown on that late third down. But South Florida in 98 00:05:27.189 --> 00:05:31.250 the first halves this year, they've only scored one touchdown 99 00:05:31.800 --> 00:05:35.379 against FBS competition. Everything else has just been a field goal. 100 00:05:36.120 --> 00:05:39.740 And that one touchdown was their opening scripted drive against army. 101 00:05:40.540 --> 00:05:44.519 So it's, it's been a struggle for South Florida offensively. 102 00:05:44.720 --> 00:05:48.540 And I haven't really seen a consistent working solution. I mean, 103 00:05:48.560 --> 00:05:50.930 we've seen DJ Crowther have some good games on the ground. 104 00:05:51.439 --> 00:05:54.759 We've seen Michael Van Buren show his metal quarterback.

We 105 00:05:54.790 --> 00:05:57.370 haven't really seen it all combined together at once. It 106 00:05:57.449 --> 00:06:01.170 always seems to be some different flaw that's affecting South 107 00:06:01.189 --> 00:06:05.110 Florida early in these games. Uh, I mean, they've had 108 00:06:05.290 --> 00:06:07.250 a couple turnovers, but I feel like they haven't been 109 00:06:07.290 --> 00:06:09.509 too plagued by it. I don't have the stat in 110 00:06:09.529 --> 00:06:11.129 front of me right now, but I would assume just 111 00:06:11.170 --> 00:06:12.870 based on the FIU game that they would have a 112 00:06:12.949 --> 00:06:16.250 positive turnover differential. But I feel like it's a lot 113 00:06:16.290 --> 00:06:21.920 of offensive penalties that have plagued them. Just some weird 114 00:06:22.000 --> 00:06:25.839 inefficiencies in the passing game. Against Bowling Green, their offensive 115 00:06:25.899 --> 00:06:27.860 line did not hold up well in that Bowling Green game. 116 00:06:27.899 --> 00:06:29.459 I think they allowed four and a half sacks to 117 00:06:29.500 --> 00:06:32.910 Miles Bradley alone from Bowling Green. So it's a different 118 00:06:32.990 --> 00:06:36.329 issue that's just affecting the offense every game and leading 119 00:06:36.370 --> 00:06:39.730 to these inefficiencies, and they haven't shown any explosiveness so 120 00:06:39.769 --> 00:06:45.170 far whatsoever. So South Florida, you've played four games against 121 00:06:45.310 --> 00:06:48.139 FBS teams right now. Your highest scoring game is 28 122 00:06:48.129 --> 00:06:51.120 against Army. Every other game you score fewer than 20 points. 123 00:06:51.939 --> 00:06:55.040 Not exactly looking like a contender now, but their schedule 124 00:06:55.120 --> 00:06:58.000 is manageable coming up. After this UTSA game, they play 125 00:06:58.019 --> 00:07:02.250 Kent State, UAB, and East Carolina, where this team– on 126 00:07:02.310 --> 00:07:06.430 defense alone can maybe win nine or 10 games, but 127 00:07:06.509 --> 00:07:08.209 that offense really needs to take a hurdle. 128 00:07:09.389 --> 00:07:14.069 Yeah. South Florida right now leading the American in points 129 00:07:14.250 --> 00:07:17.949 allowed per game at 14.6 and top three in total defense, 130 00:07:19.269 --> 00:07:22.209 but not so good in terms of offense, you know, 131 00:07:22.449 --> 00:07:27.149 putting up 344 yards per game, their bottom five in 132 00:07:27.250 --> 00:07:29.750 total offense right now in the American and then scoring 26.6 133 00:07:29.750 --> 00:07:35.160 per game. points per game. So yeah, I, not exactly 134 00:07:35.199 --> 00:07:38.259 what I would have expected with Brian Hartline there in 135 00:07:38.300 --> 00:07:41.550 South Florida. Previously, their offense was humming at least last year. 136 00:07:41.579 --> 00:07:44.069 I know it was a different team, but I was, 137 00:07:44.850 --> 00:07:47.290 if you, if you would have made me guess what 138 00:07:47.310 --> 00:07:49.129 would be their strength going into the season, I would 139 00:07:49.149 --> 00:07:52.709 have thought offense, but it's instead been the defense that 140 00:07:53.009 --> 00:07:55.500 has at least kept them in games. And then they 141 00:07:55.639 --> 00:07:58.639 managed to score. So, you know, a score enough anyway, to, 142 00:07:59.639 --> 00:08:03.600 to win before that temple game. So, I mean, right 143 00:08:03.639 --> 00:08:08.319 now I, I think I don't even have them in 144 00:08:08.420 --> 00:08:12.819 the top four teams in the American. If I had 145 00:08:12.839 --> 00:08:15.480 to rank them right now, I think I like Memphis more. 146 00:08:16.100 --> 00:08:22.160 I like UTSA more. I like FAU and then North Texas, 147 00:08:22.420 --> 00:08:28.339 North Texas, like, especially after that Tulsa win. So yeah, I, 148 00:08:29.500 --> 00:08:33.210 I mean, if you had to convince me into believing 149 00:08:33.250 --> 00:08:35.090 in USF, what should it be? 150 00:08:36.909 --> 00:08:38.549 The defense is really good. 151 00:08:38.970 --> 00:08:40.710 Yeah. 152 00:08:40.730 --> 00:08:44.850 I mean, other than that Shepard 34-yard touchdown run late 153 00:08:44.870 --> 00:08:46.529 in the game, I thought the defense did a really 154 00:08:46.549 --> 00:08:48.950 good job of containing Temple for most of that game. 155 00:08:48.970 --> 00:08:52.200 They only allowed one touchdown before that. They've been able 156 00:08:52.240 --> 00:08:53.840 to apply some good pressure up front. 157 00:08:53.960 --> 00:08:54.259 C.J. 158 00:08:54.320 --> 00:08:56.679 Hicks, he was a former five-star recruit at Ohio State. 159 00:08:56.720 --> 00:08:58.179 I think he's done a good job. He still hasn't 160 00:08:58.200 --> 00:08:59.700 got that sack yet, but he's done a good job 161 00:08:59.720 --> 00:09:02.590 setting the edge in the run game. And then Pup Howard, linebacker, 162 00:09:02.620 --> 00:09:05.639 that was a good transfer addition from Florida. Former starter 163 00:09:05.679 --> 00:09:07.850 with the Gators. He served well with the run defense 164 00:09:07.870 --> 00:09:11.450 there in South Florida. And their secondary is a bit disruptive. 165 00:09:11.509 --> 00:09:14.070 I mean, we saw Marion Fortenberry force a fumble at 166 00:09:14.110 --> 00:09:17.750 the one-guard line, and he broke up a couple passes 167 00:09:17.789 --> 00:09:19.350 in that game. He made some key plays. They have 168 00:09:19.370 --> 00:09:22.259 some good playmakers on the defense. We just have not 169 00:09:22.379 --> 00:09:26.360 seen consistency or explosiveness from the offense, and that was 170 00:09:26.639 --> 00:09:29.240 the team's calling card last year. Last year, South Florida's 171 00:09:29.340 --> 00:09:34.659 offense was just quick 40-yard touchdown, quick three-play 75-yard drive 172 00:09:34.700 --> 00:09:37.750 where Byron Brown hits one of his many wide receivers 173 00:09:37.789 --> 00:09:40.549 that's now at Auburn over the top or just

scrambles 174 00:09:40.590 --> 00:09:42.970 for a big gain. And South Florida doesn't really have 175 00:09:43.009 --> 00:09:45.289 that explosiveness in the run game or the passing game 176 00:09:45.330 --> 00:09:46.210 that we saw last year. 177 00:09:48.230 --> 00:09:51.559 And looking at the rest of the season here, They're 178 00:09:51.580 --> 00:09:54.440 1-1 in conference play right now. They've got to play 179 00:09:54.559 --> 00:09:58.309 at East Carolina, Memphis, at FAU, and Tulane at home 180 00:09:58.350 --> 00:10:03.019 to close the season. do do they even and they 181 00:10:03.059 --> 00:10:05.600 have utsa coming up do they even have a winning 182 00:10:05.700 --> 00:10:07.759 record in conference play by the end of the year. 183 00:10:07.620 --> 00:10:10.379 I think so i i think this is one of 184 00:10:10.419 --> 00:10:16.059 the more manageable conference schedules they don't play it They 185 00:10:16.120 --> 00:10:17.500 already played Army. I was going to say they didn't 186 00:10:17.519 --> 00:10:19.769 play Service Academy. They don't have one remaining on the schedule, 187 00:10:19.789 --> 00:10:21.549 which I feel like that could be a matchup that 188 00:10:21.570 --> 00:10:24.809 could trip them up. UTSA, Memphis, and FAU are the 189 00:10:24.850 --> 00:10:28.309 tough ones. I think they can win the rest of those. 190 00:10:28.950 --> 00:10:30.320 East Carolina, Tulane, UAB. 191 00:10:30.649 --> 00:10:33.169 Tulane is another team I don't exactly have a bunch 192 00:10:33.210 --> 00:10:35.990 of faith in right now. And getting them at home, yeah, 193 00:10:36.169 --> 00:10:39.090 I could definitely see South Florida winning. Yeah, that's a 194 00:10:39.100 --> 00:10:39.409 good point. 195 00:10:40.559 --> 00:10:43.480 But I think they'll at least get to four wins, 196 00:10:43.559 --> 00:10:45.740 if not five. I think they could maybe sneak out 197 00:10:45.820 --> 00:10:49.299 one of those UTSA Memphis FAU games. I still think 198 00:10:49.350 --> 00:10:51.289 the offense is going to get better as the season 199 00:10:51.309 --> 00:10:54.929 goes on. It can't get much worse. So I think 200 00:10:54.950 --> 00:10:57.529 with the first year coach and things gelling together, you 201 00:10:57.570 --> 00:10:59.750 lost all but one starter on that side of the ball. 202 00:11:00.669 --> 00:11:02.889 I mean, you'd hope that would happen in five weeks, 203 00:11:02.960 --> 00:11:05.519 but it hasn't. But I think it will happen eventually. 204 00:11:05.580 --> 00:11:07.360 And I think that Kent State game might be a 205 00:11:08.120 --> 00:11:09.840 good reset for the offense to get going. 206 00:11:11.220 --> 00:11:13.720 Now, sticking in the American, because there's a couple more 207 00:11:13.779 --> 00:11:18.070 teams that were ranked high in our G6 rankings that lost. 208 00:11:18.529 --> 00:11:23.289 Another one of them, Tulsa. Now, I think this loss 209 00:11:23.450 --> 00:11:26.610 is– it was close. It was a very competitive game 210 00:11:26.789 --> 00:11:31.659 against North Texas at home on Thursday, but they lose 211 00:11:31.700 --> 00:11:39.059 in overtime 45-44. And– It wasn't a game that I 212 00:11:39.080 --> 00:11:41.220 would have expected if it was going to be close. 213 00:11:41.299 --> 00:11:45.980 I thought Tulsa's defense, if you're going to keep it competitive, 214 00:11:46.240 --> 00:11:47.399 it was going to be a little bit more of 215 00:11:47.440 --> 00:11:53.419 a low-scoring game. But 45-44, not exactly that. But that said, 216 00:11:53.759 --> 00:11:56.799 they don't win, and now they've lost back-to-back games after 217 00:11:56.879 --> 00:12:02.600 starting the season 3-0, including that remarkable win against Oklahoma 218 00:12:02.620 --> 00:12:04.240 State at home 24-10. But then they beat Sam Houston... 219 00:12:06.610 --> 00:12:12.289 and take on East Texas A & M. So they 220 00:12:12.309 --> 00:12:15.899 start 3-0, now 3-2. What do you think of the 221 00:12:15.940 --> 00:12:17.000 Golden Hurricane right now? 222 00:12:17.539 --> 00:12:20.159 I still think they're improved over last year. It is 223 00:12:20.240 --> 00:12:22.860 tough that Trey Lamb is 1-8 in conference games since 224 00:12:22.879 --> 00:12:25.500 he's been there. I mean, he's 6-2 in non-conference games 225 00:12:25.519 --> 00:12:28.149 with two wins over Oklahoma State. If you told Tulsa 226 00:12:28.190 --> 00:12:30.710 fans that when he was about to take over the job, 227 00:12:31.210 --> 00:12:32.870 he said, sign me up any day for that. 228 00:12:33.049 --> 00:12:34.990 Does anything else matter at that point? Yeah. 229 00:12:35.720 --> 00:12:38.779 Conference games have been a struggle. I was actually impressed. 230 00:12:39.100 --> 00:12:41.340 I left the North Texas game impressed. One, I was 231 00:12:41.379 --> 00:12:43.120 shocked Tulsa was favored. I think I saw that it 232 00:12:43.139 --> 00:12:45.360 was Tulsa by one and a half. In my preview, 233 00:12:45.399 --> 00:12:47.720 I picked North Texas 35 to 16. I saw what 234 00:12:47.779 --> 00:12:51.480 North Texas did to UNLV. North Texas' offense outgained Indiana. 235 00:12:52.120 --> 00:12:55.039 They were great against Texas State. That offense had been 236 00:12:55.100 --> 00:12:57.710 pretty much unstoppable so far this year. And after watching 237 00:12:57.799 --> 00:13:00.269 Tulsa's defense kind of struggle to contain Chris Marshall in 238 00:13:00.289 --> 00:13:03.269 that Arkansas passing attack, I thought North Texas was going 239 00:13:03.289 --> 00:13:06.990 to be a team that would kind of crushed Tulsa 240 00:13:07.710 --> 00:13:10.720 and it didn't exactly happen that way, but it sort 241 00:13:10.759 --> 00:13:13.519 of did in the box score, North Texas out gained 242 00:13:13.539 --> 00:13:17.240 them five 59 to three 52. If not for three turnovers, 243 00:13:17.919 --> 00:13:20.460 North Texas probably would have won that game a lot 244 00:13:20.500 --> 00:13:23.450 more

handily, a lot more convincing. They overcame that 14 245 00:13:23.450 --> 00:13:25.970 to three deficit pretty early and then built a two 246 00:13:26.009 --> 00:13:30.289 touchdown lead. Then came the phantom Tulsa touchdown that went 247 00:13:30.350 --> 00:13:35.549 viral that nobody understood and including roles analysts and former officials. 248 00:13:35.929 --> 00:13:38.529 Nobody understood where that touchdown came from. But I'm not 249 00:13:38.549 --> 00:13:40.070 going to say that's going to change the game. That 250 00:13:40.090 --> 00:13:42.389 was a first and goal from the five-yard line. Tulsa 251 00:13:42.490 --> 00:13:46.389 probably eventually scores there. So not too hung up on 252 00:13:46.940 --> 00:13:49.080 that result because I think Tulsa was going to score anyway. 253 00:13:49.639 --> 00:13:52.960 But I was impressed with Tulsa's offense in being able 254 00:13:52.980 --> 00:13:54.100 to stay in the game. They had to score more 255 00:13:54.120 --> 00:13:58.000 than 24 points against FBS competition. Baylor Hayes, three touchdowns 256 00:13:58.039 --> 00:14:00.539 without an interception. He moved the passing game pretty well. 257 00:14:01.129 --> 00:14:03.490 And the running attack did its job, I would say. 258 00:14:03.669 --> 00:14:05.710 It looked a lot better than it did against Arkansas. 259 00:14:06.169 --> 00:14:09.250 So I think that Tulsa's offense did enough for me 260 00:14:09.360 --> 00:14:12.980 to convince me that this is still a bowl team. 261 00:14:13.580 --> 00:14:15.600 I don't think that's a contender. I never even did 262 00:14:15.639 --> 00:14:18.059 after the Oklahoma State game because I didn't think the 263 00:14:18.179 --> 00:14:20.820 offense had that level in it. But you see the 264 00:14:20.879 --> 00:14:25.360 upcoming schedule, Navy, Rice, Army, Tulane, FAU, Charlotte, UTSA. That's 265 00:14:25.480 --> 00:14:28.580 probably one of the easier stretches in the Americans. with 266 00:14:28.720 --> 00:14:32.269 FAU and UTSA probably being the two most difficult games remaining. 267 00:14:32.350 --> 00:14:34.909 So I think that this Tulsa's a bowl team. I 268 00:14:34.950 --> 00:14:36.649 think they can get a winning record this year. I 269 00:14:37.509 --> 00:14:39.710 think they can solve some of their non-conference issues. That 270 00:14:39.750 --> 00:14:42.139 was a very good performance against the North Texas team 271 00:14:42.179 --> 00:14:44.299 that I think is going to contend for a conference championship. 272 00:14:45.639 --> 00:14:48.639 Yeah, and I think we're talking about this game completely different. 273 00:14:48.679 --> 00:14:51.279 I mean, Tulsa went for two and was just short. 274 00:14:52.230 --> 00:14:56.250 If they get that two-point conversion, we're talking about this 275 00:14:57.039 --> 00:15:02.879 in a completely different way. I still like Tulsa overall. 276 00:15:04.919 --> 00:15:08.120 Maybe this is just the one setback game, and maybe 277 00:15:08.159 --> 00:15:11.659 they lose one more, and then by tiebreakers or whatever, 278 00:15:11.700 --> 00:15:17.929 they find themselves into the conference championship. I don't... I 279 00:15:17.950 --> 00:15:21.090 think Memphis and UTSA are still my top two teams 280 00:15:21.129 --> 00:15:25.529 in the conference, but I mean, if the defense can 281 00:15:25.590 --> 00:15:29.059 get back to what it was before the North Texas game, 282 00:15:29.220 --> 00:15:31.320 and then if that offense can keep humming the way 283 00:15:31.500 --> 00:15:36.100 it was and Baylor Hayes stays healthy, I think there's 284 00:15:36.139 --> 00:15:40.019 a path there. I really do. So I think Tulsa's 285 00:15:40.620 --> 00:15:44.539 a team that my confidence meter, if you had to 286 00:15:44.580 --> 00:15:47.799 put a confidence meter in Tulsa right now, I think 287 00:15:47.840 --> 00:15:50.600 I'm at like an eight. Where are you at, Steve? 288 00:15:51.279 --> 00:15:55.960 To do what? To be competitive in the American, to 289 00:15:57.240 --> 00:15:59.220 be in the mix by the end of the season. 290 00:16:00.340 --> 00:16:02.779 Probably like a six and a half, I would say. 291 00:16:02.840 --> 00:16:09.299 Okay. Okay. Maybe a team that is lower, higher? Because 292 00:16:09.700 --> 00:16:11.580 you had a lot of faith in them going into 293 00:16:11.720 --> 00:16:15.419 last week, and that's another team I want to talk 294 00:16:15.460 --> 00:16:21.769 about here is Army. Uh, army, obviously not exactly what 295 00:16:21.789 --> 00:16:26.480 you want to see against Louisiana tech losing 31 to 29. 296 00:16:26.480 --> 00:16:30.580 Now they're two and two. Would they have the loss 297 00:16:30.620 --> 00:16:33.019 against South Florida and the win over temple? So they're 298 00:16:33.100 --> 00:16:35.659 one in one in conference play. What do you think 299 00:16:35.679 --> 00:16:36.679 of the black Knights right now? 300 00:16:37.799 --> 00:16:39.899 They have a lot of defensive issues that I did 301 00:16:39.960 --> 00:16:42.679 not expect. I understood they were replacing a lot of 302 00:16:42.710 --> 00:16:45.799 the defense from last year, but I, I didn't think 303 00:16:45.840 --> 00:16:48.519 their run defense would be this susceptible. And their pass 304 00:16:48.559 --> 00:16:50.879 defense has also allowed a lot of explosives this year. 305 00:16:50.919 --> 00:16:53.080 We saw that against Temple. We saw it again against 306 00:16:53.120 --> 00:16:57.250 Louisiana Tech. They gave up 503 yards. In Army games, 307 00:16:57.570 --> 00:17:01.370 usually limited possessions, other than that famous Wake Forest game 308 00:17:01.389 --> 00:17:03.570 a few years ago that was like 70 to 56 309 00:17:03.570 --> 00:17:06.990 or whatever. But Army games, you think limited possessions, few 310 00:17:07.069 --> 00:17:09.750 yards allowed. And because of that, they keep ranking first 311 00:17:09.809 --> 00:17:11.990 and second in scoring defense and total defense in the 312

00:17:12.029 --> 00:17:15.660 American every single year, it seems like. But Louisiana Tech 313 00:17:15.720 --> 00:17:18.420 just got whatever they wanted offensively on Army, and they 314 00:17:18.440 --> 00:17:20.210 were able to do it in a multitude of ways. 315 00:17:21.130 --> 00:17:23.769 And Army was very close to losing that Temple game 316 00:17:23.829 --> 00:17:26.109 as well, where I just have to remove them from 317 00:17:26.130 --> 00:17:28.690 my American Conference championship at this point. I just don't 318 00:17:28.730 --> 00:17:31.329 think it's the year of the service academy. I haven't 319 00:17:31.349 --> 00:17:35.349 seen enough consistency from the rushing attack where you see 320 00:17:35.390 --> 00:17:39.170 multiple players having good games. We've usually seen the Cale 321 00:17:39.210 --> 00:17:42.329 Hellams game. Against Louisiana Tech, it was just Samari Howard. 322 00:17:42.390 --> 00:17:42.650 That was. 323 00:17:43.279 --> 00:17:45.880 pretty much single-handedly leading the rushing attack. And with Army, 324 00:17:45.900 --> 00:17:48.900 you can't have a one-man show in the backfield each game. 325 00:17:48.940 --> 00:17:51.559 You have to have multiple guys stepping up and delivering 326 00:17:51.599 --> 00:17:54.900 strong performances for that option offense to work at its peak. 327 00:17:55.319 --> 00:17:57.759 And that has not happened so far this year. So 328 00:17:58.259 --> 00:18:01.259 I unfortunately have removed the Black Knights for my championship 329 00:18:01.279 --> 00:18:04.079 game in favor of two other teams. I also removed 330 00:18:04.119 --> 00:18:06.900 South Florida for my preseason conference championship. So I have 331 00:18:06.960 --> 00:18:08.259 two whole new teams in there. 332 00:18:09.529 --> 00:18:13.170 So, yeah, Army, a team that plummeted in our G6 333 00:18:13.210 --> 00:18:18.519 Top 25 ranking from 12th to 24th. Yeah, I think 334 00:18:18.559 --> 00:18:20.240 they're going to be a solid team. I could see 335 00:18:20.259 --> 00:18:21.559 them being in a bowl game by the end of 336 00:18:21.579 --> 00:18:26.000 the season, but in terms of being competitive in the American, 337 00:18:26.019 --> 00:18:31.069 I just haven't seen enough for me to believe that 338 00:18:31.119 --> 00:18:35.089 they're going to be in the mix for a conference title. So, 339 00:18:36.769 --> 00:18:39.099 Before we move on to two more teams that aren't 340 00:18:39.150 --> 00:18:41.640 in the American, who do you like to win the 341 00:18:41.700 --> 00:18:45.259 conference championship right now, then? I like. 342 00:18:45.279 --> 00:18:49.839 I don't know who I'm going to pick. I like 343 00:18:49.880 --> 00:18:52.259 Memphis and North Texas in the conference championship game. 344 00:18:52.539 --> 00:18:53.519 Okay, yeah. 345 00:18:53.880 --> 00:18:57.380 Memphis and North Texas. I am fully bought into North 346 00:18:57.420 --> 00:19:02.049 Texas' offense. Their defense, a bit inconsistent, but that UNLV 347 00:19:02.069 --> 00:19:04.529 game keeps... bringing me back to that run defense and 348 00:19:04.549 --> 00:19:06.589 what they were able to do against UNLV. That win's 349 00:19:06.609 --> 00:19:10.470 looking even better after what UNLV did to Cal. I 350 00:19:10.490 --> 00:19:13.470 have believed in North Texas, honestly, since that Indiana game. 351 00:19:13.630 --> 00:19:16.710 That 52-16 score was not indicative of how that game 352 00:19:16.769 --> 00:19:19.730 went whatsoever. It was 24-13 in the third quarter. North 353 00:19:19.750 --> 00:19:22.039 Texas' offense was kind of going toe-to-toe with them for 354 00:19:22.079 --> 00:19:26.859 a bit. And Memphis, other than the second half against 355 00:19:26.900 --> 00:19:30.700 Boise State, Memphis has played a phenomenal season. They're so balanced. 356 00:19:31.349 --> 00:19:34.369 Marcus Stokes is a great quarterback. We've seen Jalen Carter 357 00:19:34.410 --> 00:19:37.920 take over games on the ground. That team, they're a 358 00:19:37.940 --> 00:19:41.180 fun team. They're easy to buy into. Their defense, they're 359 00:19:41.519 --> 00:19:46.049 disruptive at the front. It's a very well-balanced Memphis team. 360 00:19:46.109 --> 00:19:49.009 It's shocking that Memphis hasn't made the conference championship since 2019, 361 00:19:48.990 --> 00:19:52.009 considering how many good teams they've had over the years, 362 00:19:52.049 --> 00:19:54.930 how many star players they've had over the years, like 363 00:19:54.950 --> 00:19:57.410 the whole Seth Hennigan era. But I think this is 364 00:19:57.450 --> 00:19:59.910 the year the Tigers finally get back. They just look 365 00:19:59.970 --> 00:20:03.480 so good. I know it was just Charlotte, but 59-8 366 00:20:03.579 --> 00:20:06.799 on the road. They ended that thing before the 11 a.m. Central, 367 00:20:06.799 --> 00:20:09.579 12 p.m. Eastern games even kicked off. 368 00:20:11.720 --> 00:20:16.170 North Texas, I maybe should believe in them a little 369 00:20:16.210 --> 00:20:18.990 bit more, but there's that game against Texas State where 370 00:20:19.190 --> 00:20:23.410 they gave up 49 points. Do you foresee that being 371 00:20:23.430 --> 00:20:27.410 a continuing problem with this North Texas and its defense? 372 00:20:28.490 --> 00:20:31.410 Or do you just think Brad Jackson and that Texas 373 00:20:31.430 --> 00:20:34.309 State offense is just so good and the Mean Green 374 00:20:34.329 --> 00:20:35.910 just aren't going to see a team like that again? 375 00:20:37.029 --> 00:20:40.789 It could be, but Texas State kind of let down 376 00:20:40.849 --> 00:20:43.329 last week against the San Diego state team that was 377 00:20:43.450 --> 00:20:50.509 shorthanded due to some biological circumstances, but North Texas, I 378 00:20:51.029 --> 00:20:54.279 trust the offense enough to get things done and win 379 00:20:54.299 --> 00:20:56.859 games in high scoring fashion. I don't think this is 380 00:20:56.880 -->

00:20:59.740 the strongest year in the American conference. Every team has 381 00:20:59.779 --> 00:21:02.160 been pretty flawed so far. I'd say that Memphis has 382 00:21:02.339 --> 00:21:04.960 probably proven to be the least flawed team in the conference, 383 00:21:04.980 --> 00:21:09.170 I would say to date, but North Texas overall, Taven 384 00:21:09.190 --> 00:21:11.329 Jackson has really found his home there. He's been a 385 00:21:11.369 --> 00:21:15.809 pretty good strong passer, regularly getting over 300 yards. Jaheim White, 386 00:21:15.950 --> 00:21:18.529 just controlling games on the ground. They have so many 387 00:21:18.650 --> 00:21:21.779 weapons at wide receiver. Corey Millerner, we've seen him take 388 00:21:21.839 --> 00:21:24.099 over games. We've seen the tight end Max Reese take 389 00:21:24.180 --> 00:21:26.779 over the last few games. Justin Stevenson's done a good job. 390 00:21:27.079 --> 00:21:29.680 Just so many weapons where you can just win 45 391 00:21:29.680 --> 00:21:32.920 to 44 every week and make this conference championship game. 392 00:21:32.960 --> 00:21:34.769 And I think North Texas might be on track to 393 00:21:34.829 --> 00:21:35.250 doing that. 394 00:21:36.180 --> 00:21:38.029 So this is the perfect segue to another team I 395 00:21:38.069 --> 00:21:41.529 wanted to bring up. One in the Pac-12 now. I 396 00:21:41.569 --> 00:21:44.970 almost said Sunbelt. Nope, caught myself. They're in the Pac-12 now, 397 00:21:45.049 --> 00:21:49.750 Texas State. They lost, you mentioned this already, lost to 398 00:21:49.789 --> 00:21:52.670 San Diego State. Then they fell eight spots in our 399 00:21:52.769 --> 00:21:56.369 G6 rankings, 15th to 23rd. So what do you think 400 00:21:56.390 --> 00:21:58.609 of the Bobcats right now? Are you maybe not too 401 00:21:58.650 --> 00:22:01.599 worried about them, you know, based on the circumstances they 402 00:22:01.630 --> 00:22:08.640 dealt with? Or is that maybe signs of problems? Are 403 00:22:08.660 --> 00:22:12.450 they going to continue to have issues against other Pac-12 teams? 404 00:22:12.470 --> 00:22:16.369 The problem is, read the box score, and you think 405 00:22:16.430 --> 00:22:19.910 Texas State won this game by like 30. First downs, 406 00:22:20.029 --> 00:22:23.500 Texas State 34, San Diego State 13. Third down efficiency, 407 00:22:23.599 --> 00:22:25.880 Texas State 8 of 19, San Diego State 1 of 10. Yards, 408 00:22:25.880 --> 00:22:32.589 565 to 239 yards. It was only a 2-0 turnover battle. 409 00:22:32.619 --> 00:22:34.569 You still feel like at that point that Texas State 410 00:22:34.609 --> 00:22:37.069 still probably could have won this game by at least 20. 411 00:22:37.069 --> 00:22:38.789 But no, they had a late pick six, a really 412 00:22:38.849 --> 00:22:45.109 weird pick six, right after the safety. This Texas State 413 00:22:45.130 --> 00:22:47.109 forces a safety. They have that safety punt. And then 414 00:22:47.130 --> 00:22:49.150 the first play after is a pick six to Cameron Cooper, 415 00:22:49.210 --> 00:22:50.910 the same guy in San Diego State who blocked a 416 00:22:50.930 --> 00:22:53.380 field goal earlier and really turned the tide of the 417 00:22:53.410 --> 00:22:57.549 game with two freak plays. Texas State's offense can outscore anybody, 418 00:22:57.589 --> 00:22:59.970 but their defense has been such a problem. We saw 419 00:22:59.990 --> 00:23:02.559 that against North Texas. We saw it also against UTSA 420 00:23:02.599 --> 00:23:06.359 to some extent, giving up that fourth quarter drive late 421 00:23:06.380 --> 00:23:08.259 in the game to lose. And then week one when 422 00:23:08.279 --> 00:23:11.640 they gave up 59 to Texas. And Texas's offense hasn't 423 00:23:11.660 --> 00:23:14.720 been the most consistent unit so far. So Texas State 424 00:23:14.759 --> 00:23:17.880 is like the Pac-12 version of North Texas where you 425 00:23:17.900 --> 00:23:20.069 can't really trust the defense, but you can trust the 426 00:23:20.190 --> 00:23:23.019 offense to at least deliver every game. But the problem 427 00:23:23.039 --> 00:23:26.420 with Texas State is it's been a team susceptible to 428 00:23:26.579 --> 00:23:30.559 weird mistakes. It has been very bad in the turnover 429 00:23:30.619 --> 00:23:33.680 game so far. Looking up the margin right now, it 430 00:23:33.799 --> 00:23:37.720 is a minus four. And I don't know what it 431 00:23:37.759 --> 00:23:39.779 was in their FCS game, if that would even make 432 00:23:39.819 --> 00:23:42.900 it worse if you excluded that. But also they've had 433 00:23:42.940 --> 00:23:46.480 struggles in the kicking game. They've just had struggles in 434 00:23:46.559 --> 00:23:49.490 weird areas that are kind of obscured by the box 435 00:23:49.509 --> 00:23:52.089 score in some way. So The offense has been pretty 436 00:23:52.130 --> 00:23:54.710 dominant so far, but they have some other issues that 437 00:23:54.730 --> 00:23:58.009 they really need to clean up going into full Pac-12 play. 438 00:23:58.569 --> 00:24:01.769 They did win the turnover margin 2-1 against Incarnate Word. 439 00:24:02.309 --> 00:24:05.890 So I'm thinking that's the only example of that this 440 00:24:05.910 --> 00:24:06.970 year for Texas State. 441 00:24:07.089 --> 00:24:14.869 So yeah, the turnovers have been brutal, but I still 442 00:24:14.890 --> 00:24:17.670 think that there's such an incredible upside for this team 443 00:24:17.710 --> 00:24:20.130 with that offense and the playmakers. 444 00:24:20.700 --> 00:24:24.599 That that offense has. I think San Diego State's a 445 00:24:24.660 --> 00:24:29.680 really interesting case study for is Texas State going to 446 00:24:29.720 --> 00:24:33.980 be a contender in the Pac-12? Maybe not. Maybe that 447 00:24:34.099 --> 00:24:37.660 offense isn't good enough to overcome all the other deficiencies 448 00:24:37.720 --> 00:24:41.299 that this team has. But are they going to be 449 00:24:42.259 -->

00:24:47.759 a very tough team for every other unit or squad 450 00:24:48.039 --> 00:24:52.660 in the Pac-12? Yes. I think even at Boise State, 451 00:24:52.940 --> 00:24:55.829 I think Boise State is not going to be looking 452 00:24:55.869 --> 00:25:00.490 forward to dealing with this Texas State passing offense, especially 453 00:25:00.529 --> 00:25:04.579 with all the problems that that Boise State passing defense has. 454 00:25:04.740 --> 00:25:11.759 Oregon State, could that be a 56-53 game, something like that? Yeah, 455 00:25:12.039 --> 00:25:16.369 I'm looking forward to a high-scoring game like that. Fresno State, 456 00:25:16.410 --> 00:25:19.390 their defense has been pretty solid, so we'll see how 457 00:25:19.430 --> 00:25:23.130 those two units match up. I think Fresno State, I 458 00:25:23.170 --> 00:25:26.190 think that one could be even lopsided Fresno State's way 459 00:25:26.269 --> 00:25:29.769 because Fresno State is very, at least to me, the 460 00:25:29.890 --> 00:25:35.970 eye test seems they're a more disciplined team. So maybe 461 00:25:36.670 --> 00:25:41.779 those problems, if they continue into November, could be very 462 00:25:41.819 --> 00:25:45.769 problematic in a game like that. But, I mean, they're 463 00:25:45.789 --> 00:25:48.650 0-1 in conference play with the loss of San Diego State. 464 00:25:49.309 --> 00:25:51.410 They do have to play other teams like Colorado State, 465 00:25:51.509 --> 00:25:54.930 Utah State, Wazoo. I don't know. Do you think they 466 00:25:54.950 --> 00:25:57.029 can get to 500 in conference play by the end 467 00:25:57.069 --> 00:25:58.670 of the year and make a bowl game? 468 00:26:00.829 --> 00:26:03.029 I think they'll get to 500 in conference play. I 469 00:26:03.069 --> 00:26:06.329 have them beating Colorado State, Utah State, Washington State. Not 470 00:26:06.369 --> 00:26:08.130 sure who the flex game is going to be. That'll 471 00:26:08.150 --> 00:26:12.599 be interesting. But I think they can get Fresno State 472 00:26:12.630 --> 00:26:16.799 at home. Or maybe one of Boise State or Oregon State. 473 00:26:17.259 --> 00:26:19.160 I think they could sneak up on one of those 474 00:26:19.240 --> 00:26:20.859 and just win an offensive shootout. 475 00:26:20.880 --> 00:26:25.160 I think the Boise State game is really interesting. Yeah. 476 00:26:25.799 --> 00:26:28.279 I don't know if Boise State goes perfect yet. They've 477 00:26:28.299 --> 00:26:31.160 looked really good. They've looked the part. But, I mean, 478 00:26:31.400 --> 00:26:34.240 Oregon State and Texas State are such dangerous offenses that 479 00:26:34.400 --> 00:26:36.980 I said in last week's show that they can capitalize 480 00:26:37.039 --> 00:26:39.440 on Boise State's biggest flaw, and it's a game of matchups. 481 00:26:39.460 --> 00:26:41.920 So those are two games I'm definitely looking forward to. 482 00:26:42.650 --> 00:26:48.099 And Texas State, if they continue to struggle against Colorado State, 483 00:26:48.180 --> 00:26:51.460 even I could see them losing to Colorado State. And 484 00:26:51.480 --> 00:26:55.220 then maybe Utah State gives them problems. But then it 485 00:26:55.299 --> 00:26:59.480 is such a kryptonite-type team for Boise State that if 486 00:26:59.559 --> 00:27:03.460 Texas State then beats Boise State after struggling the previous 487 00:27:03.480 --> 00:27:08.619 few weeks, that throws the G6 CFP race down. into 488 00:27:08.839 --> 00:27:12.079 a in that that is going to throw a wrench 489 00:27:12.119 --> 00:27:16.180 in everything so looking forward to it because we love 490 00:27:16.220 --> 00:27:20.140 college football and we love chaos on this podcast so 491 00:27:20.660 --> 00:27:22.369 one more team i wanted to bring up here before 492 00:27:22.420 --> 00:27:26.369 we go and that was umass and i think everyone 493 00:27:26.390 --> 00:27:30.450 kind of let out a collective uh no not umass 494 00:27:31.130 --> 00:27:33.769 because they were one of the most fun teams in 495 00:27:33.829 --> 00:27:37.819 college football this year But then they go and lose 496 00:27:37.859 --> 00:27:42.380 to Eastern Michigan and lose by a healthy margin. So 497 00:27:43.599 --> 00:27:47.190 do we still have any sort of confidence in UMass 498 00:27:47.869 --> 00:27:51.130 and the Minutemen in terms of the MAAC title race 499 00:27:51.769 --> 00:27:55.390 after a really thorough loss against a team like Eastern Michigan, Steve? 500 00:27:56.309 --> 00:27:59.069 I'll be honest. I never had them in the MAAC 501 00:27:59.109 --> 00:28:01.690 title race picture. It was a great start. It was 502 00:28:01.730 --> 00:28:04.730 a fantastic story. I'm so glad that we've unlocked a 503 00:28:04.809 --> 00:28:08.279 sleeping giant of a fan base in Amherst, which absolutely delivered. 504 00:28:08.650 --> 00:28:10.559 It kind of reminded me of the Western Michigan-Boise State 505 00:28:10.579 --> 00:28:14.299 game where the crowd brought the top energy in a decade, 506 00:28:14.420 --> 00:28:16.680 but the team just wasn't able to match that performance 507 00:28:16.740 --> 00:28:20.059 on the field. Eastern Michigan was up 38-7 in that game. 508 00:28:20.079 --> 00:28:23.019 They really hammered UMass. That was the Eastern Michigan I 509 00:28:23.079 --> 00:28:25.380 expected to see going into the season where Noah Kim, 510 00:28:25.420 --> 00:28:27.859 the leading passer in the MAAC last year, looks like 511 00:28:27.900 --> 00:28:31.750 the seventh-year senior veteran quarterback he is their three-headed running 512 00:28:31.789 --> 00:28:35.329 back room is able to capitalize on offense. And Eastern Michigan, 513 00:28:35.829 --> 00:28:37.809 who I thought was going to be an offensively dominant 514 00:28:37.849 --> 00:28:40.069 team going into the year, finally showed that. And they 515 00:28:40.109 --> 00:28:42.990 did it with some long, methodical possessions. I think almost 516 00:28:43.089 --> 00:28:46.170 every single scoring

drive was at least 10 plays. But yeah, 517 00:28:46.349 --> 00:28:50.480 UMass didn't design enough Pop Watson-designed runs in that game 518 00:28:50.740 --> 00:28:52.599 that I would have liked to see that really unlocks 519 00:28:52.640 --> 00:28:56.079 another level of their offense. And then defensively, they kind 520 00:28:56.119 --> 00:28:58.920 of They didn't really show the same strength in the 521 00:28:58.980 --> 00:29:01.599 trenches that they did in that Rutgers game. They weren't 522 00:29:01.660 --> 00:29:05.200 able to stuff Eastern Michigan's run game as well. The 523 00:29:05.240 --> 00:29:09.049 thing is, UMass hadn't been challenged since that Rutgers game. 524 00:29:09.200 --> 00:29:12.190 They played two FCS opponents in Sacramento State, who is 525 00:29:12.809 --> 00:29:15.809 just as bad as anybody in the FBS. They're still transitioning. 526 00:29:15.849 --> 00:29:16.529 It's a new team. 527 00:29:17.430 --> 00:29:20.630 So UMass hadn't really been challenged, and Eastern Michigan kind 528 00:29:20.670 --> 00:29:22.690 of punched them in the mouth. So I'm curious to 529 00:29:22.730 --> 00:29:25.589 see how this team responds. You have Miami, Ohio at 530 00:29:25.630 --> 00:29:28.089 home next week, and Miami is a completely different team 531 00:29:28.430 --> 00:29:31.200 down its top two quarterbacks now. So it does present 532 00:29:31.519 --> 00:29:37.069 UMass an opportunity for redemption. And I think there's going 533 00:29:37.089 --> 00:29:39.170 to be challenging games on the schedule, but in MAAC play, 534 00:29:39.210 --> 00:29:42.900 Toledo is really the one that feels like a guaranteed loss. 535 00:29:43.259 --> 00:29:45.240 Can they have a winning record, make a bowl game? 536 00:29:45.440 --> 00:29:46.000 Absolutely. 537 00:29:46.460 --> 00:29:50.460 Are they going to contend with Toledo, Western Michigan for 538 00:29:50.559 --> 00:29:52.259 the MAAC championship? Probably not. 539 00:29:53.730 --> 00:29:58.210 Yeah, especially after there were so many close results. Western 540 00:29:58.230 --> 00:30:03.859 Michigan barely beating Buffalo. You had Ohio barely beating, I 541 00:30:03.890 --> 00:30:08.359 think it was Kent State. And then, yeah, I mean, 542 00:30:08.559 --> 00:30:15.839 the MAAC otherwise had a chaotic week. Bowling Green having 543 00:30:15.900 --> 00:30:21.160 its first win over Miami, Ohio. You mentioned obviously Miami 544 00:30:21.420 --> 00:30:24.670 not at full strength, but And then Central Michigan, a 545 00:30:24.690 --> 00:30:27.329 team that I kind of liked in terms of the 546 00:30:27.390 --> 00:30:30.869 MAAC going into the season, they were the only other 547 00:30:30.910 --> 00:30:37.839 convincing win, beating Akron 41-17. But yeah, Toledo right now, 4-1. 548 00:30:38.400 --> 00:30:40.480 There's a lot to like about the Rockets right now. 549 00:30:41.160 --> 00:30:46.069 And I still, you know, I get that game against Buffalo, 550 00:30:46.089 --> 00:30:48.230 you would have liked that to not be so close, 551 00:30:48.289 --> 00:30:50.990 but I still have a lot of faith in Western Michigan. 552 00:30:51.009 --> 00:30:55.000 I think those two teams... are the top dogs in 553 00:30:55.019 --> 00:30:59.319 the MAAC right now. But looking forward to seeing how 554 00:30:59.359 --> 00:31:04.319 this all unfolds in the MAAC here and looking forward 555 00:31:04.380 --> 00:31:10.779 to another chaotic week in college football. Steve, yeah, so 556 00:31:10.880 --> 00:31:14.539 your trip, who do you like? UTSA South Florida, you 557 00:31:14.559 --> 00:31:16.420 like UTSA to take care of business there in the 558 00:31:16.480 --> 00:31:16.920 Alamo Dome? 559 00:31:17.380 --> 00:31:20.200 I've seen a lot of UTSA conference wins at Alamo 560 00:31:20.240 --> 00:31:22.240 Dome before, and I think that they will get it 561 00:31:22.259 --> 00:31:24.619 done on Thursday night. You can catch me at that 562 00:31:24.660 --> 00:31:28.619 Rainforest Cafe before the game getting some anaconda pasta or 563 00:31:28.680 --> 00:31:33.329 something like that going over and watching UTSA South Florida 564 00:31:33.369 --> 00:31:35.390 on the Alamo Dome. Should be a great atmosphere there, 565 00:31:35.430 --> 00:31:38.789 especially in the wake of Brian Hartline's comments. But fun 566 00:31:38.829 --> 00:31:41.390 American Thursday night game. We had one last week with Tulsa, 567 00:31:41.509 --> 00:31:44.849 North Texas, so We could get more craziness chaos. You 568 00:31:44.890 --> 00:31:47.029 said this is a chaos loving podcast. We can get 569 00:31:47.049 --> 00:31:49.130 more chaos in the Alamo dome Thursday night. And that's 570 00:31:49.170 --> 00:31:50.809 going to be a fun one in San Antonio. 571 00:31:51.589 --> 00:31:54.809 Yeah. Can't wait. What other content you got coming this week, Steve, 572 00:31:54.849 --> 00:31:56.630 before we let you go? Yeah. 573 00:31:56.710 --> 00:32:00.059 Just publishing stuff on different conferences, just published a big 574 00:32:00.059 --> 00:32:04.660 12 takeaways piece. Also my Monday Mac musings thoughts piece 575 00:32:04.680 --> 00:32:08.259 will be published probably like five minutes after we finished filming, 576 00:32:08.680 --> 00:32:10.460 going to do some stuff on the American, some other 577 00:32:10.519 --> 00:32:14.430 previews of stuff soon. And then I know we're already 578 00:32:14.470 --> 00:32:16.769 looking a week ahead, but I also look forward to 579 00:32:16.809 --> 00:32:19.759 getting back on the field for some weekday CUSA next 580 00:32:19.799 --> 00:32:23.779 week when Sam Houston's hosting some games. So Thursday games, 581 00:32:23.819 --> 00:32:25.940 Wednesday games, looking forward to covering games on all sorts 582 00:32:25.980 --> 00:32:26.680 of days of the week. 583 00:32:27.440 --> 00:32:30.190 Awesome. It's going to be awesome. Can't wait. Thank you 584 00:32:30.210 --> 00:32:34.210 so much for the time, Steve, as always. And this 585 00:32:34.250 --> 00:32:36.210 has been the pool report with Colton pool. If you 586 00:32:36.250 --> 00:32:38.579 like what you heard and want more mid-major football coverage, 587 00:32:38.619 --> 00:32:40.880 make sure you subscribe and give us a five-star review. 588 00:32:41.079 --> 00:32:42.619 You can find me and the work that I'll be 589 00:32:42.640 --> 00:32:45.059 doing covering the group of six over on Twitter slash 590 00:32:45.220 --> 00:32:47.779 X at C pool reporter. And if you're so inclined, 591 00:32:47.799 --> 00:32:49.690 you can support my G six coverage at the pool 592 00:32:49.710 --> 00:32:52.349 report on sub stack. And now I think it's about 593 00:32:52.390 --> 00:32:53.849 time we get out of here.