文字起こし 🔗
WEBVTT
00:00:00.050 --> 00:00:09.166
One year ago on this show, I reported that zip code 19136 was renting in 33 days, right alongside the best of the Northeast.
00:00:09.506 --> 00:00:20.297
Today, the same zip code is at 55 days on market with a$225 gap between what landlords are asking and what tenants are actually paying.
00:00:20.646 --> 00:00:27.835
Meanwhile, across the city in South Philly, 19145 just posted 33 days and a$77 gap.
00:00:28.254 --> 00:00:40.415
For as long as I've been doing this, Northeast Philly was the dependable market, steady row homes, steady families, steady rents, while other parts of the city rode booms and busts.
00:00:40.451 --> 00:00:41.759
So what happened?
00:00:42.085 --> 00:00:45.441
Why is the Northeast suddenly underperforming South Philly?
00:00:45.768 --> 00:00:59.292
Today we're digging into 19136, Holmesburg, Penny Park, Winchester Park, and I'm going to show you exactly what the data says changed, because the answer is part market shift and part self-inflicted.
00:00:59.332 --> 00:01:03.088
If you own in Northeast, this episode is your wake-up call.
00:01:03.343 --> 00:01:04.388
Let's get into it.
00:01:04.588 --> 00:01:16.209
Welcome back to the Philly Landlord Guy, the show built for rental owners, property managers, and investors who want real, no-fluff facts about Philadelphia market, neighborhood by neighborhood.
00:01:16.605 --> 00:01:25.243
I'm your host, Yuriy Skripnichenko, the guy with the crazy last name, licensed real estate broker and certified property manager here in the city.
00:01:25.828 --> 00:01:29.787
So let's get into it, and let's start with the citywide baseline first.
00:01:30.132 --> 00:01:39.346
Across Philadelphia in September, there were 1,659 new units listed and 1,185 units rented.
00:01:39.695 --> 00:01:42.192
The median listed price was 1,800.
00:01:42.466 --> 00:01:45.957
The median rented price was 1,775.
00:01:46.329 --> 00:01:51.638
A$25 gap, about 1%, citywide landlords are pricing accurately.
00:01:52.287 --> 00:01:59.852
And the big citywide story this month, days on the market jumped to 58, up from 46 reported in August.
00:02:00.234 --> 00:02:01.959
The seasonal slowdown is here.
00:02:02.368 --> 00:02:06.768
School year moves are done, and we're entering the slowest season stretch of the year.
00:02:07.253 --> 00:02:16.633
Months of supply 2.5, with October inventory at 4,072 units, actually down from 4,400 a year ago.
00:02:17.133 --> 00:02:20.401
Now I'll be fair to the Northeast right up front.
00:02:20.429 --> 00:02:26.383
19136, 55 days is roughly in the line with the citywide 58.
00:02:26.848 --> 00:02:30.776
Part of what's happening here is the same seasonal slowdown everyone's feeling.
00:02:31.185 --> 00:02:45.777
But hold on to that$25 citywide gap, because 19136 version of that number is nine times bigger, And South Philly, in the same slow months, rented in 33 days.
00:02:45.932 --> 00:02:48.705
That contrast is today's story.
00:02:48.906 --> 00:02:54.323
So let's establish what the 19136 zip code actually is.
00:02:54.716 --> 00:03:00.627
It sits in the lower northeast along the Delaware River, split down the middle by, Pennypack Creek.
00:03:01.027 --> 00:03:07.365
About, 36 to 39,000 residents, roughly 13,000 households.
00:03:07.769 --> 00:03:19.467
The main neighborhoods Holmesburg, the historic core along Frankford Ave, one of the oldest settlements in the Northeast, plus Pennypack, Winchester Park, and the northern edge of Mayfair.
00:03:19.930 --> 00:03:31.620
The housing stock, classic Northeast product, row homes and twins built primarily in 1940s, with Pennypack Park has its green spine running through the middle.
00:03:32.192 --> 00:03:48.050
This is more suburban feeling than the Riverwards and it's definitely lower density, around 6,500 to 8,000 people per square mile versus, 30,000-plus in the South Philly zip codes we've cover-covered before.
00:03:48.665 --> 00:03:52.956
Median home value about$236,000 per Zillow.
00:03:53.385 --> 00:03:58.615
It's up 5% over the past year, and here is important detail.
00:03:59.049 --> 00:04:03.562
Homes for sale here go pending in about 16 days.
00:04:03.806 --> 00:04:09.783
Remember that number because the sales market being hot while the rental market stalls tells us something.
00:04:10.658 --> 00:04:13.336
This is a working-class transitioning community.
00:04:13.729 --> 00:04:21.451
Median household income runs roughly from 57 to$65,000, depending on the source and the year.
00:04:21.833 --> 00:04:31.706
It's solidly below It solidly below the citywide trajectory of places like 19145 which just crossed$72,000.
00:04:32.122 --> 00:04:39.117
Hallsburg specifically is classified as lower middle income with childhood poverty rate about 26%.
00:04:39.117 --> 00:04:44.966
So the average base is working families, price sensitive, needing three-bedroom product.
00:04:44.983 --> 00:04:50.627
And in fact, rentals in 19136 are mostly three-plus bedrooms.
00:04:50.826 --> 00:04:54.982
So transit, and here is a structural disadvantage versus South Philly.
00:04:55.307 --> 00:04:58.021
19136 has no subway.
00:04:58.360 --> 00:05:02.918
The Market-Frankford El ends, at Frankford Terminal, a ZIP code away.
00:05:03.238 --> 00:05:13.132
What you have here is the bus network along Frankford and Torresdale Avenues and the Holmesburg Junction Regional Rail Station on the Trenton Line.
00:05:13.170 --> 00:05:21.077
Compare that to 19145 and 19148, sitting directly on the Broad Street Line.
00:05:21.423 --> 00:05:25.887
For a tenant base that increasingly values transit, matters more every year.
00:05:26.088 --> 00:05:34.384
So the anchors here is Pennypack Park, over 1,600 acres of, parkland, a real amenity.
00:05:34.668 --> 00:05:40.680
The Frankford Avenue commercial corridor and the Holmesburg deep history, including the old prison site.
00:05:41.079 --> 00:05:43.548
It's a stable, livable family neighborhood.
00:05:43.576 --> 00:05:49.283
This
Load full transcript
is not a distressed market story, which makes the rental numbers more interesting, not less.
00:05:50.100 --> 00:05:56.848
Now the September MLS report, And I'll give you honest caveat up front here, same as I did in 19120.
00:05:57.307 --> 00:05:58.591
This is a thin month.
00:05:58.663 --> 00:06:01.517
Sixteen units listed, only five rented.
00:06:01.545 --> 00:06:10.913
Five closed lease- Five closed leases is not a statistically robust sample, so I'm going to combine it with outside data as we go.
00:06:11.028 --> 00:06:16.194
But even a thin month tells a story when every indicator points the same direction.
00:06:16.394 --> 00:06:23.180
So the September numbers, listed median 1,625, sold median 1,400.
00:06:23.521 --> 00:06:29.867
That is a$225 gap, about 14% between ask and close.
00:06:30.233 --> 00:06:37.701
Days on market 55, only one unit pending at the month's end, meaning the October pipeline is nearly empty.
00:06:38.257 --> 00:06:46.855
End of month inventory 19 units, and October is already at 20, up from 14 units a year ago.
00:06:47.189 --> 00:06:52.752
That's a 43% increase year-over-year inventory build-up in a small market.
00:06:53.524 --> 00:07:00.713
The Zillow platform currently shows about 39 active rentals in 19136, double what the MLS shows.
00:07:00.716 --> 00:07:05.161
So like 19120, a chunk of this market rents off MLS.
00:07:05.718 --> 00:07:10.031
And Zillow's median asking rent for the ZIP is$1,400.
00:07:10.858 --> 00:07:11.696
Listen to that again.
00:07:11.709 --> 00:07:15.492
Zillow's median ask equals the MLS median close.
00:07:16.206 --> 00:07:17.446
So here's the why.
00:07:17.689 --> 00:07:21.016
Why is the Northeast trailing South Philly?
00:07:21.218 --> 00:07:24.161
Three reasons, and the first one is self-inflicted.
00:07:24.552 --> 00:07:27.872
Landlords here are priced in a market that doesn't exist.
00:07:28.072 --> 00:07:30.185
Look at the year-over-year asking data.
00:07:30.206 --> 00:07:36.588
In October 2025, the median list price in 19136 was$1,425.
00:07:36.928 --> 00:07:43.557
It is$1,625 today, a 14% increase in asking rents in one year.
00:07:44.028 --> 00:07:48.442
Did tenant income in Holmesburg rose 14%?
00:07:48.519 --> 00:07:48.985
No.
00:07:49.303 --> 00:07:53.927
The median household income here is$57,000 to$65,000.
00:07:54.278 --> 00:08:01.860
That supports roughly$1,400 to$1,600 in rent at healthy ratios.
00:08:02.180 --> 00:08:12.749
Landlords in the Northeast watched citywide rent climb, watched their own assessment climb, insurance prices climb, and repriced their units upward.
00:08:12.757 --> 00:08:17.437
But the tenant base on the other side of the equation simply cannot pay it.
00:08:17.757 --> 00:08:19.206
The market said no.
00:08:19.557 --> 00:08:21.937
That's the$225 gap.
00:08:21.954 --> 00:08:30.540
And again, as over and over I've been saying this year in all of the PSAs, make sure that you're pricing your property correctly.
00:08:31.072 --> 00:08:39.443
The gap
of$225 can keep your property on the market much longer than if you price it correctly from the beginning.
00:08:40.371 --> 00:08:47.654
And for context, the citywide gap between ask and close this month was$25, about 1%.
00:08:48.126 --> 00:08:50.881
19136 is 14%.
00:08:51.342 --> 00:08:54.414
The seasonal slowdown explained the 55 days.
00:08:54.495 --> 00:08:58.308
It does not explain a gap nine times the citywide norm.
00:08:58.934 --> 00:09:00.364
That part is pricing.
00:09:00.826 --> 00:09:03.721
Reason two, the demand wave moved south.
00:09:03.802 --> 00:09:07.099
The income story we've documented all year is real.
00:09:07.107 --> 00:09:09.054
19146 doubled.
00:09:09.065 --> 00:09:10.995
19145 doubled.
00:09:11.381 --> 00:09:15.273
LowerMSM is up 12 and A half percent in a single year.
00:09:15.702 --> 00:09:23.623
Young, high-earning renters concentrated in South Philly near the Broad Street Line, near Passyunk, near the arena steward.
00:09:24.384 --> 00:09:33.546
The Northeast tenant base, meanwhile, is working families whose income grew far more slowly than the rest of the city, or at least the southern part of it, and Fishtown.
00:09:33.628 --> 00:09:38.702
Demand didn't vanish in Northeast, it just didn't grow while landlords' expectations did.
00:09:39.269 --> 00:09:41.869
And reason three, the buyers are taking the tenants.
00:09:42.370 --> 00:09:43.910
Remember that sales number?
00:09:44.152 --> 00:09:50.355
Homes here go pending in 16 days at a median price around$236,000.
00:09:50.754 --> 00:09:58.464
At that price point rent versus buy math is tightest in the city, or one of the tightest in the city.
00:09:59.130 --> 00:10:10.948
At$236,000, purchase rents roughly 18 to$1950 a month all in, not dramatically more than$1625 asking rent.
00:10:11.363 --> 00:10:16.320
The national Zillow data shows renting bids buying by$1,000 a month on average.
00:10:16.341 --> 00:10:20.721
But in 19136, that gap nearly closes.
00:10:21.032 --> 00:10:26.583
So your strongest would-be tenants, the dual income working families, are buying these houses instead of renting them.
00:10:27.100 --> 00:10:31.342
The hot sales market is literally absorbing the top of the rental demand pool.
00:10:31.881 --> 00:10:39.807
That is the opposite of what is happening in 19145, where$302,000 prices keep tenants renting.
00:10:40.090 --> 00:10:46.991
Why I'm comparing it to 19145 is simply because this is our next zip code that we will cover in the next episode.
00:10:47.192 --> 00:11:01.875
So what this means practically if you own in 19136 price at the market, not at your hopes 14 to$1500 for standard three-bedroom products with the premium and reserves for generally renovated units with laundry and parking.
00:11:02.207 --> 00:11:08.961
At 1625, you will sit through the s- 55 days average and likely cut anyway.
00:11:09.327 --> 00:11:13.076
Retention is even more valuable here than elsewhere.
00:11:13.277 --> 00:11:20.620
In a thin market with one pending unit, losing a paying tenant in November could mean a vacancy far into January of next year.
00:11:20.779 --> 00:11:22.697
And know your exit math.
00:11:23.126 --> 00:11:36.052
With home spending at 16 days at rising prices, if a unit isn't penciling as a rental, this is one of UC codes where the sales market gives you a generally fast, strong exit option.
00:11:36.431 --> 00:11:41.503
That's not a defeat, that's a portfolio management Quick thank you to our sponsor, TrustArt Realty.
00:11:41.837 --> 00:11:50.274
If today's episode stung a little because your Northeast unit has been sitting, this is exactly what a real rental analysis is for.
00:11:50.595 --> 00:11:59.899
TrustArt Realty will pull actual comps for your block and tell you the number that rents in 30 days, not the number that sits for 90.
00:12:00.486 --> 00:12:02.597
It's free for all of our listeners.
00:12:02.640 --> 00:12:12.812
Reach out at trustartrealty@phillylandlordguy.com or go to trustartrealty.com and click the link to schedule your free consultation.
00:12:13.011 --> 00:12:15.030
So let's plan this.
00:12:15.234 --> 00:12:17.610
19136 is not a broken market.
00:12:17.633 --> 00:12:23.023
It's a stable, family-oriented, Lower Northeast neighborhood with generally hot sales market.
00:12:23.441 --> 00:12:25.336
What's broken is the pricing.
00:12:25.471 --> 00:12:39.898
Asking rents jumped 14% in a year in a zip where tenants' income did not move, and as the result is 55 days on the market and$225 ask to close gap.
00:12:40.432 --> 00:12:48.028
The Northeast hasn't lost its fundamentals, it's lost its pricing discipline right as the city demand wave concentrated in South Philly.
00:12:48.489 --> 00:13:00.922
If you own here, price at 14 to 1,500 for a standard product, fight for your renewals, and remember, the 60-day sales market is your friend if a property stops penciling.
00:13:01.524 --> 00:13:08.916
If you find this episode useful, information helpful, subscribe, leave a review, and drop your zip code and the questions in the comments.
00:13:08.940 --> 00:13:10.551
I read and answer them myself.
00:13:10.933 --> 00:13:15.254
Keep your properties clean, stay legal, and I'll catch you in the next episode.