文字起こし 🔗
WEBVTT
1
00:00:05.799 --> 00:00:10.000
Hello, and welcome to the Intelbreth. Today's Monday, twenty four
2
00:00:10.080 --> 00:00:13.960
feb I'm your host Daniel, and today will be covering
3
00:00:14.359 --> 00:00:18.359
the results of the German election. Zelensky has offered to
4
00:00:18.440 --> 00:00:23.399
quit and return for NATO entry for Ukraine and European
5
00:00:23.480 --> 00:00:27.359
leaders are in Kiev to mark three years of the war. Firstly,
6
00:00:28.160 --> 00:00:32.840
the Conservative Union bloc, composed of the Christian Democratic Union
7
00:00:33.399 --> 00:00:37.759
and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union Party,
8
00:00:38.320 --> 00:00:42.719
celebrated a victory in the twenty twenty five German federal elections,
9
00:00:42.759 --> 00:00:47.240
with their leader Frederick Mears, proclaiming success on election night
10
00:00:47.320 --> 00:00:51.320
in Berlin. Despite their win, the mood at the party
11
00:00:51.359 --> 00:00:56.280
headquarters was subdued, as the Union had anticipated a stronger performance,
12
00:00:56.840 --> 00:01:01.640
aiming for thirty plus percent on x, but only managed
13
00:01:01.679 --> 00:01:05.439
to secure about twenty eight percent of the vote. This
14
00:01:05.560 --> 00:01:10.120
outcome falls short of allowing them to govern alone, necessitating
15
00:01:10.519 --> 00:01:14.359
the search for coalition partners to achieve a governing majority
16
00:01:14.760 --> 00:01:20.840
under Germany's proportional representation system. The election also saw a
17
00:01:20.920 --> 00:01:24.439
significant rise in support for the Alternate for Germany Party
18
00:01:25.079 --> 00:01:30.560
or AfD, a populist party with segments deemed far right extremists.
19
00:01:31.120 --> 00:01:34.959
Which secured the second highest share of votes at twenty percent.
20
00:01:35.799 --> 00:01:40.480
The party's co leader, Alice Wielder, highlighted the party's growth,
21
00:01:40.760 --> 00:01:45.000
stating that the CDU and CSU could only fulfill their
22
00:01:45.040 --> 00:01:50.599
campaign promises by collaborating with the AfD. However, Frederick Meres
23
00:01:50.760 --> 00:01:55.319
and the Union have firmly excluded any coalition with the AfD,
24
00:01:55.599 --> 00:02:00.920
citing major ideological differences on several key issues, including foreign
25
00:02:01.000 --> 00:02:06.959
policy and European integration. The political landscape is further complicated
26
00:02:07.000 --> 00:02:11.000
by the poor performance of the Social Democrats and the Greens,
27
00:02:11.520 --> 00:02:17.360
both potential coalition partners for the Union. The Social Democrats
28
00:02:17.439 --> 00:02:22.039
recorded their worst results since eighteen ninety, adding another layer
29
00:02:22.120 --> 00:02:25.759
of challenges as the Union seeks to form a viable government.
30
00:02:27.800 --> 00:02:32.719
So what, Germans voted clearly for change, much like every
31
00:02:32.759 --> 00:02:35.479
other European country has done that has gone to the
32
00:02:35.520 --> 00:02:39.360
ballot in the last few years. However, the majority of
33
00:02:39.400 --> 00:02:43.759
the country voted for a somewhat subtler change, voting for
34
00:02:43.800 --> 00:02:47.840
the Conservative Party over the AfD, which is widely considered
35
00:02:47.879 --> 00:02:52.199
to be far right. While their boost and popularity is notable,
36
00:02:52.599 --> 00:02:55.560
it is highly unlikely they will get any power in
37
00:02:55.599 --> 00:02:59.639
this government. Yet it is possible that if the situation
38
00:02:59.680 --> 00:03:03.840
in Jermany doesn't change, then the AfD may win the
39
00:03:03.840 --> 00:03:10.319
majority in the next election and next president. Vladimir Zelensky
40
00:03:10.520 --> 00:03:14.039
of Ukraine has offered a bold proposal during a press
41
00:03:14.039 --> 00:03:17.360
conference in Kiev, stating that he would resign from his
42
00:03:17.439 --> 00:03:22.680
position immediately if he guaranteed Ukraine's membership in NATO, framing
43
00:03:22.680 --> 00:03:27.439
his potential resignation as a sacrifice for national peace and security.
44
00:03:28.599 --> 00:03:33.280
This statement comes amid ongoing and tensions and the third
45
00:03:33.319 --> 00:03:37.479
adversary of Russian's full scale invasion of the country, and
46
00:03:37.560 --> 00:03:41.599
a further plea for support. Zelenski expressed the desire for
47
00:03:41.680 --> 00:03:45.240
the United States under Donald Trump to engage more deeply
48
00:03:45.319 --> 00:03:50.360
with Ukraine, seeking a role beyond mere mediation between Ukraine
49
00:03:50.400 --> 00:03:54.919
and Russia, as comments underline the strained relations between the
50
00:03:54.919 --> 00:04:00.319
two countries, with Trump recently intensifying criticism by la bling
51
00:04:00.439 --> 00:04:05.759
Zelensky a dictator and errorously accusing Ukraine of instigating the
52
00:04:05.800 --> 00:04:10.479
conflict or while suggesting that both Russia and Ukraine leaders
53
00:04:10.879 --> 00:04:15.439
meet to negotiate an end to the conflict. In addition
54
00:04:15.560 --> 00:04:20.399
to the political maneuvers, Zelensky discussed security and economic strategies,
55
00:04:20.920 --> 00:04:26.319
urging Trump to provide concrete security guarantees to Ukraine. He
56
00:04:26.439 --> 00:04:30.639
highlighted the ongoing negotiations that might allow the US to
57
00:04:30.680 --> 00:04:36.040
access Ukraine's natural resources and exchange for continued security assistance,
58
00:04:37.000 --> 00:04:40.639
with potential deals on rare earth minerals close to being
59
00:04:40.680 --> 00:04:46.120
finalized with Trump's Special envoy. Zelensky also pushed back on
60
00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:49.560
claims that Ukraine owes the US five hundred billion u
61
00:04:49.600 --> 00:04:55.120
S dollars for wartime support, citing data from Germany's Kiel
62
00:04:55.240 --> 00:04:59.079
Institute
Load full transcript
for the World Economy that places the total of
63
00:04:59.199 --> 00:05:03.480
US aid at one hundred and fourteen billion. As remarks,
64
00:05:03.680 --> 00:05:07.959
emphasized that such financial aid should be seen as grants
65
00:05:08.079 --> 00:05:12.319
rather than loans, contrasting the approaches of the US and
66
00:05:12.399 --> 00:05:17.360
the European Union and reflecting the broader geopolitical and financial
67
00:05:17.439 --> 00:05:23.120
complexities facing Ukraine and the war. So what, In my
68
00:05:23.240 --> 00:05:27.560
personal opinion, Zelensky is absolutely smashing it. He stayed at
69
00:05:27.600 --> 00:05:30.040
the start of the war and has continued to prove
70
00:05:30.160 --> 00:05:33.959
to be a good wartime leader. This statement is no different.
71
00:05:34.360 --> 00:05:37.480
It goes against all the negative media that is currently
72
00:05:37.519 --> 00:05:41.800
being put out about him and the Ukrainian government. However,
73
00:05:42.120 --> 00:05:44.759
one thing he needs to improve on is how he
74
00:05:44.839 --> 00:05:49.839
deals with Trump. Regardless of your thoughts about Trump, Zelensky
75
00:05:50.040 --> 00:05:52.800
needs to improve how he deals with them, or else
76
00:05:52.920 --> 00:05:57.160
it seems likely Trump will withdraw all support. Houghton has
77
00:05:57.199 --> 00:06:00.560
shown his skill in dealing with Trump both during his
78
00:06:00.680 --> 00:06:05.040
last tenure and in the last few weeks. He shows
79
00:06:05.079 --> 00:06:08.399
that he knows the man. Due to this, Zelensky and
80
00:06:08.639 --> 00:06:12.759
Ukraine are likely to suffer of Zelensky cannot personally improve
81
00:06:12.839 --> 00:06:18.120
his relationship with the US leader. And lastly, on the
82
00:06:18.160 --> 00:06:22.759
third anniversary of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine
83
00:06:22.839 --> 00:06:26.560
has hosted European leaders in a significant summit in Kiev,
84
00:06:27.439 --> 00:06:32.959
highlighting solidarity and shared stakes with Europe amidst the ongoing war.
85
00:06:33.120 --> 00:06:38.120
Zelensky's administration, however, noted the absence of top US officials.
86
00:06:38.800 --> 00:06:44.360
This underscores are pivot by the US administration towards Moscow.
87
00:06:45.480 --> 00:06:50.120
This shift comes amid escalating tensions marked by Trump's harsh
88
00:06:50.120 --> 00:06:54.839
criticisms of Zelensky, whom he laid labeled a dictator and
89
00:06:54.920 --> 00:06:59.839
wrongly accused of initiating the conflict. These developments have come
90
00:07:00.120 --> 00:07:03.800
sided with US engaging in direct talks with Russia. In
91
00:07:03.839 --> 00:07:11.360
Saudi Arabia, notably excluding Ukraine and any European representation in Kiev. Today,
92
00:07:11.680 --> 00:07:17.319
European leaders, including the European Commission President, the European Council President,
93
00:07:17.759 --> 00:07:22.040
and various European presidents and prime ministers, have gathered to
94
00:07:22.120 --> 00:07:27.680
demonstrate their support for Ukraine. The Assembly discussed crucial matters
95
00:07:27.759 --> 00:07:31.839
such as the need for increased defense spending and strategic
96
00:07:31.959 --> 00:07:36.319
unity against the backdrop of Zelensky's push for a stronger
97
00:07:36.360 --> 00:07:42.480
collective European military posture. The Ukrainian president emphasized the necessity
98
00:07:42.480 --> 00:07:47.199
of achieving peace through strength was the min unity, underscoring
99
00:07:47.319 --> 00:07:52.800
the broader implications for Europe's destiny. Meanwhile, Ukraine's deputy Prime
100
00:07:52.800 --> 00:07:57.000
minister indicated that they were close to finalizing a significant
101
00:07:57.000 --> 00:08:01.240
deal with the US for access to its mineral resources
102
00:08:02.079 --> 00:08:07.120
so one. Similarly to the last story, this division between
103
00:08:07.240 --> 00:08:10.600
Ukraine and the US seems to come from the personal
104
00:08:10.639 --> 00:08:14.360
issues between Zelensky and Trump. It is likely that if
105
00:08:14.439 --> 00:08:18.120
Zelensky can change his tact with Trump, then the relationship
106
00:08:18.160 --> 00:08:24.079
will likely improve, both personally and at the national level. Regardless,
107
00:08:24.240 --> 00:08:27.279
it is likely that the EU will provide enough support
108
00:08:27.360 --> 00:08:30.879
to continue with the defense of Ukraine while Trump tries
109
00:08:30.920 --> 00:08:34.960
to secure his piece deal. One thing, they will almost
110
00:08:34.960 --> 00:08:40.279
certainly cripple Ukraine as if Trump prematurely removes sanctions on Russia,
111
00:08:40.759 --> 00:08:44.840
allowing them to recover economically before a DL is reached,
112
00:08:45.720 --> 00:08:49.120
this would likely be the final nail in Ukraine's coffin,
113
00:08:49.960 --> 00:08:52.600
as the only real thing that is currently going in
114
00:08:52.639 --> 00:08:57.360
their favors the damage to the Russian economy. Thank you
115
00:08:57.399 --> 00:09:00.519
for tuning in to the Intel Reef, your daily update
116
00:09:00.559 --> 00:09:05.240
on global geopolitics, brought to you by Age Intelligence. You
117
00:09:05.320 --> 00:09:07.840
can support the show by sharing it with your friends
118
00:09:08.200 --> 00:09:11.799
and leaving us a five star review, and if you're
119
00:09:11.799 --> 00:09:14.879
curious to learn more about intelligence, you could check out
120
00:09:14.879 --> 00:09:18.120
one of our courses in the description below. Thank you
121
00:09:18.159 --> 00:09:20.519
for listening. I've been your host, Daniel, and I'll see
122
00:09:20.559 --> 00:09:21.159
you next time.