#39 - Dr. John Austin | Navigating the Unknown and Conquering Uncertainty! の全文書き起こし

00:02:11.520 And it's a question that people have been talking about for uh well over a hundred years. 00:02:11.520 --> 00:02:15.520 And the way I define it is well, let's just say what it isn't. 00:02:15.520 --> 00:02:19.439 So uncertainty is not the same as risk. 00:02:19.439 --> 00:02:23.680 And I think this is one of the places that we really get into some trouble here. 00:02:23.680 --> 00:02:31.360 So risk is when you don't know what will happen, but you can kind of figure out the odds of it. 00:02:31.360 --> 00:02:32.960 There's data there with that. 00:02:32.960 --> 00:02:36.319 Uncertainty is when you can't even define the odds. 00:02:36.319 --> 00:02:42.719 So you can sort of think of it as if the rules of the game themselves are not really clear. 00:02:42.719 --> 00:02:50.319 In the book, I like to use the metaphor of the fog, which I mean, it's not a lot of people talk about fog and uncertainty together, right? 00:02:50.319 --> 00:02:51.840 Uh, and there's a reason for that. 00:02:51.840 --> 00:03:00.240 When you think about fog, fog doesn't mean danger, it means you can't see as far as you would like to see. 00:03:00.240 --> 00:03:06.639 So you have a choice there on whether you're afraid of it or whether you act and whether you move forward with it. 00:03:06.639 --> 00:03:09.759 But the fog itself is not danger. 00:03:09.759 --> 00:03:16.879 And that's a key thing to think about because if we're thinking about risk, actually, risk is a danger, right? 00:03:16.879 --> 00:03:20.080 Uncertainty, it's a little different. 00:03:20.479 --> 00:03:21.599 Yeah, I didn't think about that. 00:03:21.599 --> 00:03:22.560 Uncertainty. 00:03:22.560 --> 00:03:24.960 So thanks for zeroing in on that for us. 00:03:24.960 --> 00:03:28.159 Now, how did you decide to research uncertainty? 00:03:28.159 --> 00:03:29.280 And how do you do that? 00:03:29.599 --> 00:03:32.240 Well, so there's a couple of reasons for this. 00:03:32.240 --> 00:03:54.000 When I think about this, the main one is that over the last two decades, uh, I have worked with executives, I've worked with a lot of different organizations, I've worked with graduate students, undergraduates, and I no matter whether I'm talking to someone who is 20 years old, someone who has been in the industry that they're working in for 30 years, I keep seeing the same pattern. 00:03:54.000 --> 00:03:59.280 And that is that smart, accomplished people, they're just paralyzed by ambiguity. 00:03:59.280 --> 00:04:02.879 And I realized that we don't talk about this a lot. 00:04:02.879 --> 00:04:06.879 And maybe there was a framework out there that I could help to sort of pull people into this. 00:04:06.879 --> 00:04:16.639 So that was the first thing is I kept finding myself trying to help people develop their leadership, help people become more effective in organizations. 00:04:16.639 --> 00:04:19.839 And we weren't talking about this central thing. 00:04:19.839 --> 00:04:22.160 So that was that's probably the

main thing. 00:04:22.160 --> 00:04:29.040 Then there's something else which has always stuck with me, which really got me started on thinking about the research here. 00:04:29.040 --> 00:04:33.120 So when I was 21 years old, I was a lifeguard. 00:04:33.120 --> 00:04:48.319 Uh, I was a lifeguard at an ocean beach, and I watched an 18-year-old uh minimally trained lifeguard calmly execute an absolute perfect rescue. 00:04:48.319 --> 00:04:53.680 It was about 10-foot surf, and it was um it it was pretty rough on our beach. 00:04:53.680 --> 00:04:57.439 Uh and he had no real great training. 00:04:57.439 --> 00:05:05.920 This was his first job, no experience in that situation, yet he acted with total confidence and he he just did it brilliantly. 00:05:05.920 --> 00:05:14.319 And I often kind of reflected back on that as I was going through my career and just and initially I thought, wow, isn't it amazing? 00:05:14.319 --> 00:05:18.319 Some people just seem to be born with this, they seem to have this ability. 00:05:18.319 --> 00:05:26.240 And as I worked with more and more people, I started to realize that's not really the case because I think people develop this. 00:05:26.240 --> 00:05:29.120 And so that's the question I started to ask. 00:05:29.120 --> 00:05:31.279 Why do some people thrive? 00:05:31.279 --> 00:05:37.199 And what is it that they have as skills that prevent them from freezing in that moment? 00:05:37.199 --> 00:05:46.240 Yeah, so that's that's kind of the the something that's the story that I think keeps coming back to me as I think about this. 00:05:47.439 --> 00:05:56.879 Side note when I was in the military, I was stationed up in Washington, DC, and uh something bad happened during one of our ceremonial events. 00:05:56.879 --> 00:05:58.959 It happened in front of everyone. 00:05:58.959 --> 00:06:03.120 And after the fact, the colonel came up and talked to me about it, and he said, Were you scared? 00:06:03.120 --> 00:06:04.720 And I'm like, I was petrified. 00:06:04.720 --> 00:06:09.519 So but somehow I just uh okay. 00:06:09.519 --> 00:06:12.319 Inside I'm falling apart, but I was able to do that. 00:06:12.319 --> 00:06:13.519 But yeah, uncertainty. 00:06:13.519 --> 00:06:15.439 That was I was very scared. 00:06:15.680 --> 00:06:22.240 Well, you know, and the other thing about that is and I I had a similar water rescue during this time as well. 00:06:22.240 --> 00:06:29.839 And um you are not thinking about these things in that moment, you're just reacting, you're just acting, right? 00:06:29.839 --> 00:06:33.040 Uh, and that's part of what what we figure out how to do here. 00:06:33.040 --> 00:06:42.879 Um, but there's uh we feel panicked, but sometimes we're still doing a good job of acting in in that moment with that. 00:06:42.879 --> 00:06:43.360 Right. 00:06:43.360 --> 00:06:44.079 Yeah, yeah. 00:06:44.319 --> 00:06:44.800 Yeah. 00:06:44.800 --> 00:06:48.480 Looking like a duck swimming on the surface, yeah, right, eating like crazy. 00:06:48.720 --> 00:06:50.879 And and this this lifeguard, he was terrified. 00:06:50.879 --> 00:06:51.839 He talked about that. 00:06:51.839 --> 00:06:53.759 Uh, and uh, but he looked great. 00:06:53.759 --> 00:06:58.800 And in fact, he was he was a local uh a local person. 00:06:58.800 --> 00:07:01.199 Uh I was not from the area, so it was great. 00:07:01.199 --> 00:07:08.480 We got to put him in front of all the local media and he got to be on local TV and in the newspaper for you know this rescue he did. 00:07:09.120 --> 00:07:09.600 Yeah. 00:07:09.600 --> 00:07:10.240 Yeah. 00:07:10.240 --> 00:07:12.639 Training helps with uh dealing with that. 00:07:12.639 --> 00:07:14.160 So yeah, that's great. 00:07:14.160 --> 00:07:17.920 Now, what are some of the surprising things that came out of your research? 00:07:18.240 --> 00:07:26.800 You know, I think the biggest surprise for me is that ambiguity aversion is something that it's not innate. 00:07:26.800 --> 00:07:28.959 Uh, it's not something that we're born with. 00:07:28.959 --> 00:07:38.480 And one of the cooler research that I came across is research that shows that eight to nine-year-olds, they don't just don't exhibit aversion to ambiguity. 00:07:38.480 --> 00:07:48.959 But if you study later adolescence, uh young adults, you start to see that pretty much everyone has this aversion to ambiguity. 00:07:48.959 --> 00:07:52.240 And so that to me was really kind of a surprise. 00:07:52.240 --> 00:07:54.639 And it got me thinking, what's the difference? 00:07:54.639 --> 00:07:56.959 What happens in those years, right? 00:07:56.959 --> 00:08:07.279 Uh, and uh I think the other thing is that surprise itself is actually a very important trigger for us. 00:08:07.279 --> 00:08:15.920 So surprise events actually rewrite our brains in ways that are essential to learning. 00:08:15.920 --> 00:08:29.199 So if you think about that, we spend all of our time trying to remove surprise from our lives in many ways as adults, and organizations that are designed to eliminate surprise. 00:08:29.199 --> 00:08:36.000 And yet, surprise seems to be really important for us to be able to learn and create memory. 00:08:36.000 --> 00:08:39.919 So those two things I think are kind of the the my big aha's. 00:08:40.399 --> 00:08:40.639 Right. 00:08:40.639 --> 00:08:48.240 I don't like uncertainty, I don't like surprises, but then after things happen, I look back on them and it's like, oh, okay, cool. 00:08:48.240 --> 00:08:50.080 Well, I I learned from that. 00:08:50.080 --> 00:08:51.039 So Right, right. 00:08:51.039 --> 00:08:52.960 I just I still don't I still don't want it though. 00:08:53.200 --> 00:08:56.799 No, in that moment, it's it's like how how did I not see this coming? 00:08:56.799 --> 00:08:59.519 And there's this there's there's a fear that can come up, right? 00:08:59.519 --> 00:09:00.080 Yeah. 00:09:00.320 --> 00:09:00.799 Yeah. 00:09:00.799 --> 00:09:04.879 Now, where do we waste effort when

we're facing uncertainty? 00:09:05.279 --> 00:09:06.559 That's a that's a great question. 00:09:06.559 --> 00:09:17.919 I think the um the thing that I often say to people is that there's a moment where you have to stop trying to gather data to get out of the uncertainty. 00:09:17.919 --> 00:09:24.000 Uh so I think we waste a lot of time trying to find the data that will make us certain. 00:09:24.000 --> 00:09:33.919 In genuinely uncertain situations, more data doesn't usually create clarity because the problem isn't really insufficient information, right? 00:09:33.919 --> 00:09:37.919 If there's something the rules have changed here. 00:09:37.919 --> 00:09:44.639 So you're trying to solve uncertainty with a tool of certainty, if that makes sense. 00:09:44.879 --> 00:09:45.039 Yeah. 00:09:45.200 --> 00:09:54.559 Uh and I'm not saying don't go out there and try to find it and look for that data, but at a certain point, you say, okay, it's it's not there, and I need to act on what I know here. 00:09:54.559 --> 00:09:58.960 So I think that's probably the biggest time waste with that. 00:09:58.960 --> 00:10:08.000 And then the other one is probably the if I just work harder, I'll be able to get out of this. 00:10:08.000 --> 00:10:15.440 And what work harder usually means is do the thing you've always done, but just do more of it, right? 00:10:15.440 --> 00:10:25.039 So psychologists kind of call this the threat rigidity effect, where when we're under threat, we narrow and focus more in a specific area, right? 00:10:25.039 --> 00:10:30.480 So you grip tighter on something when you're in that fog, you hold on to the steering wheel tighter, right? 00:10:30.480 --> 00:10:39.600 Uh, but uh the if the environment is shifting, we actually might have to be looking more broadly uh and looking for some of those things. 00:10:40.080 --> 00:10:45.440 We'll talk more about it as we go, but is it more of a take a step back and just pause type thing? 00:10:45.519 --> 00:10:48.399 And there is uh there is that. 00:10:48.399 --> 00:11:00.639 So in in these moments, there is there are cues out there, but those cues might be overshadowed by all of the details we filled in from our past experiences, right? 00:11:00.639 --> 00:11:07.039 So we think we see something and now it's it's not playing out that way, but we keep trying to kind of plug something in. 00:11:07.039 --> 00:11:13.600 So if you think about instead pausing, looking at what is unexpected. 00:11:13.600 --> 00:11:29.360 So actually asking yourself, I shouldn't say asking yourself, training yourself when something surprises you to, like you said, pause and then also start looking around for the thing that seems out of place. 00:11:29.360 --> 00:11:35.440 And now that gives you something to focus on, but it's a it's a problem to focus on, it's a puzzle, right? 00:11:35.440 --> 00:11:38.080 And that's that sort of gets us going. 00:11:38.080 --> 00:11:49.440 But now the puzzle is around paying attention to what we're what's right in front of us, as opposed to you know this automatic processing that we might have done there. 00:11:49.440 --> 00:11:50.320 Right. 00:11:50.320 --> 00:11:56.320 You know, and and you and think about this, it's it's not just pausing because there's an emotional side to that moment, right? 00:11:56.320 --> 00:12:00.559 You're you're you're probably a little threatened in that moment. 00:12:00.559 --> 00:12:04.240 So I would say also breathe. 00:12:06.320 --> 00:12:07.600 Just pause, breathe. 00:12:07.600 --> 00:12:08.559 I like it. 00:12:08.559 --> 00:12:09.519 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:12:09.519 --> 00:12:11.759 All right, so that's laying the foundation. 00:12:11.759 --> 00:12:16.240 Let's let's talk about how uncertainty impacts us as adults. 00:12:16.240 --> 00:12:20.960 So now you've said that kids don't struggle with uncertainty the way adults do. 00:12:20.960 --> 00:12:22.080 Why is that? 00:12:22.559 --> 00:12:24.000 So it's interesting. 00:12:24.000 --> 00:12:30.480 So where this came from, maybe let me just explain the the study that first got me really aware of this. 00:12:30.480 --> 00:12:36.080 And that is there was a study that was um published in 2015. 00:12:36.080 --> 00:12:39.600 It's it's referenced in my book in the first couple chapters. 00:12:39.600 --> 00:12:50.240 And in it, children and adults were given options between a choice that has known odds and a choice that has unknown odds. 00:12:50.240 --> 00:12:54.159 And this is a type of decision choice that's been around for 50 years. 00:12:54.159 --> 00:13:01.279 Uh, and it's a way that we assess this idea of whether or not we have a preference for certainty or uncertainty. 00:13:01.279 --> 00:13:06.799 What they found was that adults strongly preferred the known odds problem. 00:13:06.799 --> 00:13:12.080 Uh and uh the kids, it was kind of 50-50. 00:13:12.080 --> 00:13:14.799 They really just uh didn't care. 00:13:14.799 --> 00:13:22.480 And I saw a subsequent follow-up study where kids were actually interviewed about this, and some kids said, yeah, it's more fun to not know. 00:13:22.480 --> 00:13:25.360 That was kind of interesting, right? 00:13:25.360 --> 00:13:41.039 And so when I read that study, it it got me thinking, well, in some ways you could say we're born as explorers, and then as we learn, we kind of shift from explorers to warriors, right? 00:13:41.039 --> 00:13:50.000 We start thinking about you know the the downside of not knowing, whereas kids might be also thinking about the adventure of not knowing, right? 00:13:50.000 --> 00:14:15.440 So that doesn't really explain why, but uh there has been some theorizing that to grow and survive, right, in the world as a kid, you just everything's new for a long time, and you still have this habit of my job is to mess with things and to figure out what they do, and that maybe over time we're done messing with things, right? 00:14:15.440 --> 00:14:18.240 We kind of should have a different way of

thinking of that. 00:14:18.240 --> 00:14:25.360 I will say one thing though, is that kids do show a bias towards things that are familiar. 00:14:25.360 --> 00:14:32.960 So that's one uh that's a similar type of thing, but um that what that means is if they already, if something looks familiar to them, they will choose that. 00:14:32.960 --> 00:14:36.799 Um that's a little different than choosing something because you know the odds of it. 00:14:36.799 --> 00:14:40.799 So that was a nice thing to shake out because that was a question. 00:14:40.799 --> 00:14:44.639 Is that all what that we're measuring here with this? 00:14:44.879 --> 00:14:45.039 Yeah. 00:14:45.279 --> 00:14:55.759 I think the other thing, maybe the question isn't why are kids more comfortable with uncertainty, but what are all those things that happen that make us less uncertain? 00:14:55.759 --> 00:15:00.639 And you know, the there's a Pavlovian response here, right? 00:15:00.639 --> 00:15:04.320 To how how we are rewarded in schools. 00:15:04.320 --> 00:15:11.200 Um we get rewarded for having the right answer, not for um asking good questions necessarily. 00:15:11.200 --> 00:15:16.879 Career incentives are all about knowing and social conditioning, right? 00:15:16.879 --> 00:15:25.279 Uh, you're not gonna look like the type of person people want to follow if you don't really look like you know the answer, right? 00:15:25.279 --> 00:15:31.919 So I think all of these things lead to a very clear preference over time with that. 00:15:32.240 --> 00:15:32.639 Yeah. 00:15:32.639 --> 00:15:36.559 It sounds it seems like ego would become a part of that as well. 00:15:36.559 --> 00:15:37.200 Yeah. 00:15:37.200 --> 00:15:42.399 You know, and anything that um is uncertain, kind of you might get embarrassed or something. 00:15:42.399 --> 00:15:45.600 So the fear of being embarrassed is so many things there. 00:15:45.600 --> 00:15:46.080 But yeah. 00:15:46.080 --> 00:15:46.320 Yeah. 00:15:46.320 --> 00:15:48.000 Well, kids don't care though. 00:15:48.000 --> 00:15:49.120 They're just like, whatever. 00:15:49.120 --> 00:15:50.639 So I think you're right. 00:15:50.639 --> 00:15:51.279 I think, yeah. 00:15:51.279 --> 00:15:54.639 But they have to eat chicken nuggets and peanut butter and jelly every day. 00:15:54.639 --> 00:15:58.159 So they don't want interesting, right? 00:15:58.320 --> 00:16:02.159 So kids are all about the adventure except for when it comes to food. 00:16:02.639 --> 00:16:03.200 Yeah. 00:16:03.200 --> 00:16:05.200 I want chicken nuggets. 00:16:05.200 --> 00:16:10.879 So we we talked earlier about uh how we waste effort. 00:16:10.879 --> 00:16:12.720 Now, what traps do we fall into? 00:16:12.720 --> 00:16:14.559 I think you just alluded to one of those. 00:16:14.559 --> 00:16:18.399 What traps do we fall into as adults when facing uncertainty? 00:16:18.639 --> 00:16:23.840 Well, and you alluded to one of them as well, which is that um there's the expert trap, right? 00:16:23.840 --> 00:16:30.480 That we we we um we we need to feel like we're the expert. 00:16:30.480 --> 00:16:42.559 So there's a couple that and there's something called the illusion of explanatory depth, uh, also, which is that we feel like we know how things work if we know a little bit about them, right? 00:16:42.559 --> 00:16:58.399 Uh and part this all ties into a broader thing, which is which there's an illusion of control, that um the more expertise we accumulate, the more our expertise becomes our identity, right? 00:16:58.399 --> 00:17:11.920 Yeah, so admitting that our expertise is not giving us an answer can actually kind of be very threatening, not just to um in that situation, but almost a threat to who we are, right? 00:17:11.920 --> 00:17:14.000 Uh I think that's a big one. 00:17:14.000 --> 00:17:28.400 And then I'm sure you're familiar with Daniel Kahneman's work, which is the thinking fast and thinking slow, uh, and all of his work that he did with Amos Tversky, I think a lot of that really comes into play here. 00:17:28.400 --> 00:17:35.279 And their prospect theory, which talks about loss aversion, is I think key here. 00:17:35.279 --> 00:17:42.480 And that is that initial losses hurt about twice as much as equivalent gains feel good. 00:17:42.480 --> 00:17:45.839 So they studied this in the 1970s. 00:17:45.839 --> 00:17:56.240 And if you think about that, that means that uncertainty we think more about the loss side because it's more painful than we think about the potential gain side. 00:17:56.240 --> 00:18:02.079 So that's a very, I know it's kind of an academic way of thinking of this, but I think I think it's interesting. 00:18:02.079 --> 00:18:16.079 It it suggests that we're gonna hold on to what we know, the status quo, because that new thing opens up the possibility of both loss and gain, but we feel loss more powerfully, right? 00:18:16.400 --> 00:18:16.799 Yeah. 00:18:16.799 --> 00:18:17.359 Yeah. 00:18:17.359 --> 00:18:24.079 And when you said, just to confess, when you said, I'm sure you're familiar with this person's work, I went, I'm sorry. 00:18:24.079 --> 00:18:24.319 Right. 00:18:24.319 --> 00:18:26.559 I see that's that's like I'm inside I went. 00:18:26.880 --> 00:18:28.160 I just set you up, right? 00:18:28.160 --> 00:18:29.920 I that's like the worst thing to say, right? 00:18:29.920 --> 00:18:34.480 Because it's like I'm I'm setting you up to have to act like you know what I'm talking about. 00:18:34.720 --> 00:18:35.759 Oh, I was pretending to. 00:18:35.759 --> 00:18:37.680 I was sitting here going, oh yeah. 00:18:37.680 --> 00:18:38.319 No. 00:18:38.319 --> 00:18:40.319 But then you said uh, you know, some of the things. 00:18:40.319 --> 00:18:44.000 Oh yeah, and I actually I had heard of those things, so that's cool. 00:18:44.240 --> 00:18:50.319 But uh yeah, the ego, I went, Wait, I'm gonna have to remember this because it really is a that's a great example. 00:18:50.319 --> 00:18:52.880 I'll keep

using saying that. 00:18:53.119 --> 00:18:54.319 Right in that moment. 00:18:54.319 --> 00:18:56.559 You're talking to me, and I'm going, uh yeah. 00:18:56.559 --> 00:18:58.000 So yeah, that happened. 00:18:58.079 --> 00:19:08.319 So literally sitting here, the uncertainty struck, and I went, oh I want to flag that for a moment because think about uh I I I fell into something that I often coach people not to do. 00:19:08.319 --> 00:19:13.759 It's really an arrogant thing to start a sentence with, of course, you know. 00:19:13.759 --> 00:19:24.799 Uh and it it's it really is a it's setting yourself up as I know something, and okay, I'm I'm going to say that you should know it too. 00:19:24.799 --> 00:19:25.279 Right. 00:19:25.279 --> 00:19:26.559 Think about that, right? 00:19:26.559 --> 00:19:30.480 That that's not a that's not a good way to have an interaction with someone. 00:19:30.559 --> 00:19:34.160 Uh well, I didn't take it as arrogant, I took it as I should know this. 00:19:34.160 --> 00:19:34.400 Right. 00:19:34.640 --> 00:19:42.640 And I went, oh it's it's it's the it's the the person who's taught facilitation over the years catching myself for falling into my own trap. 00:19:42.960 --> 00:19:43.519 No, all good. 00:19:43.519 --> 00:19:45.519 No, but it is uh what you're talking about. 00:19:45.519 --> 00:19:47.920 Yeah, I I yeah, I I had heard those things. 00:19:47.920 --> 00:19:48.960 So that's uh that's cool. 00:19:49.200 --> 00:20:02.000 Uh you know, let me just add one other, which is that uh those are individual things, but recognize that all of our organizational incentives as well are biased towards knowing things and knowing the with that. 00:20:02.000 --> 00:20:02.480 Yeah. 00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:03.599 And social comparison. 00:20:03.599 --> 00:20:14.640 In the corporate world, we've got dashboards, we're measuring everything and we're looking at the numbers and what can we do to change and you know, just trying to deal with that. 00:20:14.640 --> 00:20:17.200 Uncertainty scares organizations, I think. 00:20:17.519 --> 00:20:22.559 And so as a result, it scares people within organizations to to act uncertain, right? 00:20:22.559 --> 00:20:30.720 So that means that we also only see people who are performing as if they know everything uh around us. 00:20:30.720 --> 00:20:37.039 Uh so we're all doing this performance as if we actually know everything at the all of the Yes. 00:20:37.359 --> 00:20:39.279 I I see that so often. 00:20:39.279 --> 00:20:47.119 It's like you go into meetings and people are talking and sharing information or asking questions they already know the answers to and things like that. 00:20:47.119 --> 00:20:49.279 So and uh I've done it. 00:20:49.279 --> 00:20:52.079 I'm not excluding myself here, but yeah. 00:20:52.079 --> 00:20:59.200 So especially when you're doing a lot of tech layoffs and everything, people start behaving in this way to, you know, you have to be the expert. 00:20:59.200 --> 00:21:11.200

But um side note, I did a brief, brief reading on uh reversal theory and telic state versus paratelic state and all of that. 00:21:11.200 --> 00:21:15.519 Let me know what you think of this as it relates to an organization. 00:21:15.519 --> 00:21:26.799 If leaders in an organization can create an environment where it's almost playful, then that helps to deal with some of those issues with uncertainty, right? 00:21:27.039 --> 00:21:27.759 Well, what do you think? 00:21:27.759 --> 00:21:44.319 Yeah, so uh so that's it that's interesting because if we accept that ambiguity creates anxiety, then reducing anxiety might actually help us deal with more ambiguity, right? 00:21:44.319 --> 00:21:48.000 So uh it in that way, uh I think it makes sense. 00:21:48.000 --> 00:21:53.839 If you're putting people at ease, you're allowing you're giving people this idea that they're not stressed. 00:21:53.839 --> 00:21:59.759 Then when you do introduce uncertainty in that situation, you're already working from a lower level of. 00:21:59.759 --> 00:22:00.559 Stress. 00:22:00.559 --> 00:22:16.640 So it it strikes me that absolutely even if you can't directly help people be more comfortable with uncertainty, putting people more at ease is another way to get them able to better respond in those moments. 00:22:16.640 --> 00:22:17.279 Yeah. 00:22:17.680 --> 00:22:18.079 Yeah. 00:22:18.079 --> 00:22:19.200 That's cool. 00:22:19.200 --> 00:22:24.480 Because uh if leaders are uncertain and they're fearful, it's very contagious. 00:22:24.480 --> 00:22:28.720 And so that's when everybody starts acting like, you know, I've got to do something. 00:22:29.119 --> 00:22:30.319 Yeah, let me just build on that. 00:22:30.319 --> 00:22:39.119 That the the thing that I find interesting also is that we don't role model not knowing very well. 00:22:39.119 --> 00:22:50.799 And um it, you know, maybe you say, well, John, you don't really need that, you know, when you're dealing with people who've been working for 20 years, but when you're dealing with newer employees, uh, I think it's important. 00:22:50.799 --> 00:22:54.319 And I think about this a lot now that I'm working with undergraduates. 00:22:54.319 --> 00:23:04.799 Uh I try to be the professor who kind of doesn't know what he's doing so much. 00:23:04.799 --> 00:23:11.119 I mean, you know, I have expertise, but I want to be able to show when I don't know. 00:23:11.119 --> 00:23:13.119 Uh, and so I think about that. 00:23:13.119 --> 00:23:19.279 And I think it's important for people to be able to see that is an option sometimes. 00:23:19.839 --> 00:23:20.160 Yeah. 00:23:20.160 --> 00:23:21.599 Um that's cool. 00:23:21.599 --> 00:23:23.279 My background is engineering. 00:23:23.279 --> 00:23:26.319 I studied electrical engineering and at NC State. 00:23:26.319 --> 00:23:32.799 And one of the coolest things I saw were professors that would just sit down and work on a problem and they didn't know. 00:23:32.799 --> 00:23:39.759 So I'm a,

you know, I'm younger, I'm you know, sitting under the tutelage of a professor, and this guy's got a PhD. 00:23:39.759 --> 00:23:45.839 When they would just sit down and work on a problem, and there was no ego, there was no, well, I don't know this. 00:23:45.839 --> 00:23:47.039 They would figure it out. 00:23:47.039 --> 00:23:58.079 And it was that was cool to watch because in a lot of scenarios, it's like like maybe you're a dad, you know, you don't want your kids to look at you and go, oh, he doesn't know the answer. 00:23:58.079 --> 00:24:00.079 And so you kind of pretend maybe. 00:24:00.079 --> 00:24:05.440 But that was very instructive, though, to sit with a professor and and they go, huh. 00:24:05.440 --> 00:24:07.680 And then just sit and start figuring things out. 00:24:07.680 --> 00:24:08.559 That's cool. 00:24:08.559 --> 00:24:14.160 But uh that doesn't work too well in corporate environments, though. 00:24:14.559 --> 00:24:16.480 And you know, that is a shame, right? 00:24:16.480 --> 00:24:25.680 But uh if we could um there are some teams that do do that well, that that work together, it sort of define and what you're talking about. 00:24:25.680 --> 00:24:36.079 One of the great things about being trained as an engineer is learning how to do that, learning how to sort of break down a system, understand its parts, and really figure out what you don't know, right? 00:24:36.079 --> 00:24:41.519 So you're seeing the process that the professor uses to figure something out they don't know. 00:24:41.519 --> 00:24:42.799 And I think that's so valuable. 00:24:42.799 --> 00:24:46.000 And I think engineering is a field that does a great job with that. 00:24:46.000 --> 00:24:55.359 I think you're right there that in in most of our work settings, we don't have that opportunity to see and work together in doing that type of stuff. 00:24:55.359 --> 00:24:56.160 Yeah. 00:24:56.559 --> 00:25:04.319 Yeah, if you're dealing with a customer and something is wrong, ambiguity is, you know, because they get frustrated. 00:25:04.319 --> 00:25:07.759 So you have to kind of manage the customers' frustrations and things. 00:25:07.759 --> 00:25:19.440 But then, but if if you can really dig into a problem, and what I've seen really good engineers is they see the problem and it's an anomaly and they're excited about solving it. 00:25:19.440 --> 00:25:20.799 That's that's really cool. 00:25:20.799 --> 00:25:23.920 But uh yeah, learning how to get to that place. 00:25:24.000 --> 00:25:24.720 That's that's the thing. 00:25:24.720 --> 00:25:32.400 You know, I think a field that's done a lot better at it recently, uh, it's a field we used to say was really bad at it, and it's medical doctors. 00:25:32.400 --> 00:25:44.319 So uh for years, doctors were found to be the most overconfident in the in the uh the people who are most uh one of the professions that was least able to admit they don't know something. 00:25:44.319 --> 00:25:45.759 And and it makes sense, right? 00:25:45.759 --> 00:25:50.240 Because you only go to a doctor for an answer and you're not satisfied if you don't get it. 00:25:50.240 --> 00:25:56.559 But if you've noticed, doctors now are seem to be a bit better, at least in the United States. 00:25:56.559 --> 00:26:11.839 And I I attribute that to much better attention to this issue in medical school, where doctors are now able to sit with a patient next to them and try to figure out what's going on. 00:26:11.839 --> 00:26:14.319 And it makes us more comfortable as patients. 00:26:14.319 --> 00:26:14.960 That's great. 00:26:14.960 --> 00:26:15.599 Yeah. 00:26:15.599 --> 00:26:22.799 So so I think that's what that's a field that has really advanced uh in their ability to do this. 00:26:23.440 --> 00:26:28.640 Now let's let's dig into your, you call it the uncertainty intelligence framework. 00:26:28.640 --> 00:26:30.960 So in your book, you lay that out. 00:26:30.960 --> 00:26:32.880 Uncertainty intelligence framework. 00:26:32.880 --> 00:26:33.839 Can you describe that? 00:26:34.160 --> 00:26:34.480 Yeah. 00:26:34.480 --> 00:26:44.160 So uncertainty intelligence is uh, first of all, the the key thing here is that it's not a personality trait you have, right? 00:26:44.160 --> 00:26:47.279 The ability to thrive in an uncertain situation. 00:26:47.279 --> 00:26:54.799 When I went and looked at people who were doing this well, what I saw is they had an underlying set of skills. 00:26:54.799 --> 00:26:58.720 And those skills could be developed through practice. 00:26:58.720 --> 00:27:09.440 And if you do this, you make better decisions, uh, you maintain your performance better under stress, uh, and you just demonstrate stronger leadership. 00:27:09.440 --> 00:27:12.319 And this is this is not necessarily new. 00:27:12.319 --> 00:27:15.039 What I did is just pull this together. 00:27:15.039 --> 00:27:20.240 And there's three areas that are part of uncertainty intelligence. 00:27:20.240 --> 00:27:28.079 Uh the first one is anticipatory awareness, and that's the ability to see and project emerging changes. 00:27:28.079 --> 00:27:34.720 The second is adaptability, that's revising your plans as the world changes around you. 00:27:34.720 --> 00:27:43.839 Uh, and then the third is learning agility, and that's rapidly developing new skills and competences, uh, and learning which of your old skills to throw out. 00:27:43.839 --> 00:27:58.000 So I kind of use a shorthand for these, which is uh see react prepare, in that those people who are good at uncertainty have developed all three of these skills. 00:27:58.000 --> 00:27:59.039 Oh yeah. 00:27:59.039 --> 00:28:08.640 So that's kind of and so in the book, I like to dig into for each one of them what are some techniques you can use to develop these types of intelligence. 00:28:08.640 --> 00:28:10.640 And what are some of those tools from the book? 00:28:10.640 --> 00:28:11.920 I'm glad you asked. 00:28:11.920 --> 00:28:19.200 So uh I do a lot of work with

uh foresight. 00:28:19.200 --> 00:28:24.079 So forecasting is we try to predict what the most likely future is. 00:28:24.079 --> 00:28:29.440 So foresight is anticipating the range of possible futures that are out there. 00:28:29.440 --> 00:28:29.759 Okay. 00:28:29.759 --> 00:28:41.440 And so I've I've spent a lot of time in my career working with teams to help them identify multiple potential futures and then use that to develop more robust plans around that. 00:28:41.440 --> 00:29:02.640 Uh, and so one of the tools in my book is something I call uncertainty vectoring, which is a tool that I developed that I helps you really think about how you identify the different uncertainties in your situation, map how they interact with each other, and then use that to generate different futures. 00:29:02.640 --> 00:29:07.440 Uh and this has been done for years in an area called scenario planning. 00:29:07.440 --> 00:29:11.680 And I just uh adjusted it a little bit to focus more on the uncertainties. 00:29:11.680 --> 00:29:16.319 This is actually a great way to develop anticipatory awareness here. 00:29:16.319 --> 00:29:27.359 It it gets you to uh anticipate different ways the world could go before you find yourself in the position of being surprised and having to react to them. 00:29:27.359 --> 00:29:29.279 So that this is a tool I love. 00:29:29.279 --> 00:29:36.160 And uh because you can use it in a group setting, you can use it individually when thinking about your careers, those types of things. 00:29:36.160 --> 00:29:37.119 Nice. 00:29:37.119 --> 00:29:43.599 As it relates to um adapting, this is where you're reacting in that moment. 00:29:43.599 --> 00:29:51.680 Uh, there's really a tool that I like to think about here, which is uh it I call it the three translation moments. 00:29:51.680 --> 00:30:00.400 And what this is is translating what's going on in in uh the world to how do I respond to it very quickly. 00:30:00.400 --> 00:30:19.359 And it comes down to very quickly in that moment being able to create a new mindset, uh, so that's seeing things a little differently, uh, moving from that mindset to new behaviors, so acting differently, and then anchoring it. 00:30:19.359 --> 00:30:21.920 So embedding that in the situation. 00:30:21.920 --> 00:30:27.599 And I think of that as making sure that you're committing to an action. 00:30:27.599 --> 00:30:37.519 So those are three translation moments, and each one of them requires you to develop sort of a different type of skill as when you're in that moment of change. 00:30:37.519 --> 00:30:50.079 The key thing about adapting is this is uh what you see in emergency situations when certain people seem to just be really good at getting things moving, right? 00:30:50.079 --> 00:30:53.039 Um that's that adaptability skill. 00:30:53.039 --> 00:31:11.519 And then one other one, if you're working with teams, uh I like to think about uh how it is that uh we can very quickly realign the skills and expertise that

we have in a group when a new situation comes up. 00:31:11.519 --> 00:31:22.559 And so there's a tool I use called Situated Expertise, which really builds into uh how you can redeploy your teams and redesign things around new situations. 00:31:22.559 --> 00:31:26.319 So I hope that's not going too much into the weeds with the no, no. 00:31:26.319 --> 00:31:27.200 That's cool. 00:31:27.440 --> 00:31:30.799 So you mentioned anticipatory awareness. 00:31:30.799 --> 00:31:33.599 And what is that again? 00:31:34.000 --> 00:31:42.559 So that it's um scanning broadly, um, detecting weak signals uh and projecting how change unfolds. 00:31:42.880 --> 00:31:43.200 Okay. 00:31:43.200 --> 00:31:47.519 And then adaptability, when you know, we know that adapt to things as they emerge. 00:31:47.519 --> 00:31:58.799 And then that learning agility is cool because I mean the way things change in the tech industry, it's like, okay, AI disrupting a lot of things, and so teams have to be revamped. 00:31:58.799 --> 00:32:00.400 People have to learn new things. 00:32:00.400 --> 00:32:01.359 So that's cool. 00:32:01.359 --> 00:32:12.559 And this, I mean, this applies to individuals as well, because as an individual dealing with family situations, dealing with work, dealing with all of these things, things are constantly changing. 00:32:12.559 --> 00:32:19.680 And so we have to, as things emerge, have the ability to pick pick up new skills and learn things. 00:32:19.680 --> 00:32:20.799 So that's yeah. 00:32:20.799 --> 00:32:23.759 I mean, this applies to teams, to companies, to individuals, everything. 00:32:24.079 --> 00:32:32.079 You know, you know, and I I want to say that a key part of learning agility is also being prepared to unlearn things. 00:32:32.079 --> 00:32:32.720 Right. 00:32:32.720 --> 00:32:34.079 So think of this. 00:32:34.079 --> 00:32:43.759 I'm I'm I have as a professor right now, I have students entering college who are not gonna leave college for four years. 00:32:43.759 --> 00:32:49.359 Think about how long four years in is based on how quickly the world is changing. 00:32:49.359 --> 00:32:56.720 So there is not a professor out there who can honestly say everything they're teaching is gonna be relevant in four years. 00:32:56.720 --> 00:32:59.119 At least the way I see it, right? 00:32:59.119 --> 00:33:06.720 So we our job is to prepare them for that future, but we ourselves don't necessarily know what that is. 00:33:06.720 --> 00:33:21.759 So the best thing that we can do is train students on how to learn and also develop that ability to unlearn and realize that something that we taught them is no longer relevant, right? 00:33:21.759 --> 00:33:22.640 Right. 00:33:22.640 --> 00:33:23.440 Yeah. 00:33:23.920 --> 00:33:24.079 Yeah. 00:33:24.240 --> 00:33:30.160 I mean, one of the things that hits us in the workplace is something new technology comes out. 00:33:30.160 --> 00:33:32.559 We're working with the old technology. 00:33:32.559 --> 00:33:36.079 We know how things operate there and we don't want to change. 00:33:36.079 --> 00:33:39.440 And sometimes we end up losing our jobs as a result. 00:33:39.440 --> 00:33:45.599 So uh yeah, let's uh my background was uh telephony. 00:33:45.599 --> 00:33:50.079 And so when I started, it was working in voice over IP. 00:33:50.079 --> 00:33:55.759 And so we ended up, we were doing a lot of work with customers who were replacing old PBXs. 00:33:55.759 --> 00:34:04.400 And so the old PBX technicians, I say old, the folks that knew the PBX technology did not want to learn the voice over IP. 00:34:04.400 --> 00:34:08.800 But those PBXs were going away. 00:34:08.800 --> 00:34:16.800 And so we literally we deployed a new phone system for a customer, and they they knew these old Nortel PBXs, the engineers. 00:34:16.800 --> 00:34:19.519 They literally refused to learn the new system. 00:34:19.519 --> 00:34:21.679 And we were we were trying to teach them. 00:34:21.679 --> 00:34:28.079 And they ended up after the project was over, they had to interview for their jobs, and they you know lost their job. 00:34:28.079 --> 00:34:30.239 If they had just learned the new system. 00:34:30.239 --> 00:34:33.039 So, anyways, but yeah, learning agility. 00:34:33.039 --> 00:34:37.920 You gotta be able to stop doing the old stuff, start doing the new. 00:34:37.920 --> 00:34:39.760 So, yeah, it's it was difficult though. 00:34:39.760 --> 00:34:42.239 That's that's often a very difficult thing for people to do. 00:34:42.960 --> 00:34:44.960 You've gotten really good at that old thing. 00:34:44.960 --> 00:34:47.280 Uh, you know, yes, and that's tough. 00:34:47.280 --> 00:34:50.000 Yes, we I think we have to have empathy for this. 00:34:50.000 --> 00:34:50.960 It is tough. 00:34:50.960 --> 00:34:56.079 Uh and and it's totally legitimate for someone to say, I am not, I just am not interested in this. 00:34:56.079 --> 00:35:04.800 But you when you make that choice, you also do have to understand that that old thing might not be as valuable anymore. 00:35:05.199 --> 00:35:06.719 Yeah, yeah. 00:35:06.719 --> 00:35:24.000 So, but interestingly enough, I met with a customer two, three years ago that it was a university, and these guys had built their PBX system in 1984, and it was the same crew still working there today. 00:35:24.000 --> 00:35:30.480 And I went, it was awesome, but they were eager to learn the new stuff, and it was it was very cool. 00:35:30.480 --> 00:35:39.280 So they were they were a good crew, but these these guys they built this phone system in when Reagan was president, and that's amazing. 00:35:39.280 --> 00:35:41.119 So it was awesome. 00:35:41.119 --> 00:35:44.639 So uh so let's talk about some practical advice now. 00:35:44.639 --> 00:35:49.920 What what are some habits people can start today in dealing with uncertainty? 00:35:50.239 --> 00:35:53.599 I like to think small, and habits that's a great way to think of it, right? 00:35:53.599 -->

00:36:03.760 So so yeah, so the um every day there is some uncertainty in your life, and we do such a good job of just pushing it aside. 00:36:03.760 --> 00:36:12.639 So, one thing that I would suggest is have start a kind of a daily uh decision lab, right? 00:36:12.639 --> 00:36:26.880 So for two weeks, just maybe on your commute or just at the end of your day, log one decision you made that day that you made, even though there was some uncertainty, right? 00:36:26.880 --> 00:36:39.920 And you start tracking this, you start to notice that there are certain types of uncertainties that you defer decisions because of, and there are others that you're totally comfortable with. 00:36:39.920 --> 00:36:45.199 And it gives you sort of an insight into the your own way of dealing with uncertainty. 00:36:45.199 --> 00:36:47.920 And what are the uncertainties that you might be ignoring with this? 00:36:47.920 --> 00:36:52.400 So it's kind of it's kind of a way to capture some of those default biases that you have. 00:36:52.639 --> 00:36:52.800 Okay. 00:36:52.960 --> 00:37:03.599 And then then a second thing I often uh talk about on the when you're trying to make sense of things is are you looking somewhere that no one else is looking? 00:37:03.599 --> 00:37:18.800 And one way to get to start practicing that is give yourself a time, like set it at 15 minutes a week, put it on your calendar and look somewhere outside of your field. 00:37:18.800 --> 00:37:21.039 Just go look at something, right? 00:37:21.039 --> 00:37:26.800 So scan something that no one else is looking at, and you don't even know why it's relevant. 00:37:26.800 --> 00:37:33.920 Uh, but you basically what you're starting to do is say, I'm just gonna go sit and listen to this thing. 00:37:33.920 --> 00:37:37.280 Uh, maybe it's an awesome podcast, right? 00:37:37.280 --> 00:37:46.000 And it's something that um you you start to kind of see things outside of your field. 00:37:46.000 --> 00:37:52.480 It's one way that you start to build those muscles of anticipatory awareness because you're looking more broadly with that. 00:37:52.480 --> 00:37:54.960 I think those would be two habits that I think have high. 00:37:55.440 --> 00:38:01.280 And I would think I would think that that would also start to foster that wonder that we had as kids as well, right? 00:38:01.280 --> 00:38:01.920 Right, yeah. 00:38:01.920 --> 00:38:03.440 So learn learning something new. 00:38:03.679 --> 00:38:04.719 That's that's absolutely true. 00:38:04.719 --> 00:38:09.519 And and I do think there's something about that curiosity of saying, Oh, I wonder what I wonder about this. 00:38:09.519 --> 00:38:10.159 What is it? 00:38:10.159 --> 00:38:11.199 What is it that doing? 00:38:11.199 --> 00:38:15.280 I I I I'm I have this benefit, I'm on of a university campus. 00:38:15.280 --> 00:38:20.559 So I can just go in and listen to lectures in fields that I know nothing about, right? 00:38:20.559 --> 00:38:21.599 And that's cool. 00:38:21.599 --> 00:38:28.239 Especially in the science fields, I'm totally lost, but I'm fascinated uh by trying to figure it out. 00:38:28.239 --> 00:38:33.119 And also I love the passion of the people talking about it. 00:38:33.119 --> 00:38:37.519 And so I always learn something, even if it's just learning how little I know. 00:38:38.480 --> 00:38:40.000 Yeah, that's so cool. 00:38:40.000 --> 00:38:52.480 Yeah, one time I I was in lecture, it was a physics lecture, and it was man, this guy, the professor, was uh he must have been 70, 80 years old, but still going strong, and he loved what he did. 00:38:52.480 --> 00:38:59.280 And just the passion that he had in talking about physics, and he was talking about the universe in one lecture. 00:38:59.280 --> 00:39:07.119 He spent an entire hour speaking off the cuff from no notes, just talking about the known universe. 00:39:07.119 --> 00:39:09.039 And oh man, it was wonderful. 00:39:09.039 --> 00:39:12.239 Literally everyone was just wrapped attention. 00:39:12.239 --> 00:39:13.519 So yeah, that's cool. 00:39:13.519 --> 00:39:15.920 But yeah, that guy was he was preserving that. 00:39:15.920 --> 00:39:19.840 He had that wonder after in working in the field for decades, right? 00:39:19.840 --> 00:39:21.519 And he still had that wonder. 00:39:21.519 --> 00:39:23.519 It was cool, but uh yeah. 00:39:23.519 --> 00:39:29.039 Now, what are one or two practices that give 80% of the benefits? 00:39:31.440 --> 00:39:33.199 So was it those two you just mentioned? 00:39:33.199 --> 00:39:34.079 Oh, no, no, no. 00:39:34.079 --> 00:39:36.000 I'm just uh that's such a good question. 00:39:36.000 --> 00:39:53.840 And um, so there's one technique that I keep finding myself using with different groups, and I might kind of adjust it a little bit for it depending on what the issue is, but it I call it the backward-forward flip. 00:39:53.840 --> 00:40:02.320 And it's um regularly looking back at surprises that hit you over a set time period. 00:40:02.320 --> 00:40:16.800 I often use three years, but you could maybe maybe it's one year, but you look back, you set a date in time, say three years ago, exact, you know, um in April 2023, right? 00:40:16.800 --> 00:40:19.760 Uh or something, whatever it is, whatever's three years ago. 00:40:19.760 --> 00:40:28.800 And then you say, all right, where exactly was I and what has surprised me that has happened since then? 00:40:28.800 --> 00:40:37.599 Really think about what has happened that that you just didn't anticipate, and use that to reflect on what did you miss? 00:40:37.599 --> 00:40:39.760 Where were you not looking? 00:40:39.760 --> 00:40:41.760 Were there weak signals out there? 00:40:41.760 --> 00:40:43.679 Where would you have seen them? 00:40:43.679 --> 00:40:48.480 Were you resisting adapting your own uh way of working? 00:40:48.480 --> 00:40:52.400 And how did you eventually learn that? 00:40:52.400 --> 00:41:10.800 And then take that and now after you've done

all that, just flip it forward and you start to really think a little differently about the amount of uncertainty that might be about to hit you, and then also give you some ideas and different things you might do about it. 00:41:10.800 --> 00:41:13.440 So I think that's a really helpful one. 00:41:13.440 --> 00:41:31.599 And um interesting observation when I do this with younger people, when I ask them to describe future uncertainties, they tend to um focus on positive uncertainties. 00:41:31.599 --> 00:41:38.639 When I do this with groups of people that have been around longer, it flips. 00:41:38.639 --> 00:41:44.480 And when people talk about future uncertainties, they tend to tend to talk more about negative uncertainties. 00:41:44.480 --> 00:41:46.320 I don't know any research on this. 00:41:46.320 --> 00:41:49.840 I'm just observing what I've seen in groups with that. 00:41:49.840 --> 00:41:52.639 So I think that's that's that's one practice. 00:41:52.639 --> 00:41:55.119 Um what do you call it again? 00:41:55.119 --> 00:41:56.960 I call it the backward-forward flip. 00:41:56.960 --> 00:41:59.840 You look backward and then you flip it, look forward. 00:41:59.840 --> 00:42:03.679 I don't know if that's a good name, but it's the one I came up with probably about 10 years ago. 00:42:04.559 --> 00:42:04.960 Yeah. 00:42:04.960 --> 00:42:08.639 Yeah, it would seem then that journaling would be a help for that. 00:42:08.639 --> 00:42:18.480 So if you um especially if you're maintaining like an electronic journal, writing is good because it's it helps with just tactile the touch and everything. 00:42:18.480 --> 00:42:27.599 But then if you have an electronic journal that you're storing things in, it seems like you can look back on that and uh call out the big major events that that hit you. 00:42:27.679 --> 00:42:28.960 But uh Yeah, yeah. 00:42:28.960 --> 00:42:29.599 Yeah, yeah. 00:42:29.599 --> 00:42:36.960 So I I I think that's a great way to sort of realize that that we're living through it and we have successfully lived through a whole bunch of uncertainty. 00:42:36.960 --> 00:42:41.119 So we're overwhelmed right now, perhaps, but you know what? 00:42:41.119 --> 00:42:43.519 We were in the past and we're still here, right? 00:42:43.519 --> 00:42:48.480 Um you know, and the other one is really just a simple question. 00:42:48.480 --> 00:42:54.719 And get get in the habit of asking people what keeps them up at night or what are they uncertain about? 00:42:54.719 --> 00:42:57.679 Because as we've talked about, people hide their uncertainty. 00:42:57.679 --> 00:42:59.039 You never see it. 00:42:59.039 --> 00:43:12.960 And I think asking people what is it that they don't know, and and inviting them to talk about the future, because then it's not scary for them to admit to you they don't know because none of us know it. 00:43:12.960 --> 00:43:24.159 So asking them that that question of what what do you wish you knew about what was going to happen in

the next few years, you you start to realize it normalizes uncertainty. 00:43:24.159 --> 00:43:31.199 We're all uncertain, and everyone who just acts like they know what they're doing, they're as uncertain as the rest of us. 00:43:31.199 --> 00:43:38.400 And so you you often learn a lot when you especially if you ask someone who's quite skilled uh these types of questions. 00:43:38.960 --> 00:43:39.599 That's funny. 00:43:39.599 --> 00:43:40.960 Yeah, those interview questions. 00:43:40.960 --> 00:43:43.280 Where do you see yourself in five to ten years? 00:43:43.280 --> 00:43:49.199 And then you make you make up an answer, and it's like, you know, you're not gonna be you have no idea where you're gonna be in five years. 00:43:49.199 --> 00:43:50.400 Right, right, right. 00:43:50.400 --> 00:43:52.079 So yeah. 00:43:52.079 --> 00:43:55.920 I think I was asked that once, and I said, you know, I don't know. 00:43:55.920 --> 00:43:57.360 And I'm I'm good with that. 00:43:57.360 --> 00:43:59.119 So it's a good answer. 00:43:59.280 --> 00:43:59.760 Good answer. 00:44:00.159 --> 00:44:07.199 And here's why, because when I was 18, I had my entire life mapped out and it ne it didn't work out anything like I anticipated. 00:44:07.599 --> 00:44:10.239 See, I I'm guess I was that opposite person. 00:44:10.239 --> 00:44:13.039 I had no idea what I was gonna do when I entered college. 00:44:13.039 --> 00:44:14.159 I think back on that. 00:44:14.159 --> 00:44:19.599 I was like, and then I kind of just rolled with the flow or yeah, kind of went with it for a while. 00:44:19.599 --> 00:44:24.000 And then um I it it seemed to work out initially. 00:44:24.159 --> 00:44:27.119 Uh yeah, that's cool. 00:44:27.119 --> 00:44:28.400 So funny. 00:44:28.400 --> 00:44:31.360 But um wow, well, that's a good place to wrap it up. 00:44:31.360 --> 00:44:34.159 Um so where do people find you? 00:44:34.639 --> 00:44:42.400 I have a website that is certain about uncertainty, and that there's dashes between those words. 00:44:42.400 --> 00:44:44.880 Certain about uncertainty.com. 00:44:44.880 --> 00:44:46.800 Yeah, we'll include links in the description. 00:44:46.800 --> 00:44:48.639 Okay, and you you can find me on LinkedIn. 00:44:48.639 --> 00:44:51.440 I am I'm open to anyone reaching out to me on LinkedIn. 00:44:51.440 --> 00:44:54.400 Uh there's about 10,000 John Austins on LinkedIn. 00:44:54.400 --> 00:44:59.679 So I'm the one who's the you know university professor and the dean of the honors college. 00:44:59.679 --> 00:45:02.320 So those are the two best places to find me. 00:45:02.960 --> 00:45:03.280 Okay. 00:45:03.280 --> 00:45:07.679 Yeah, so we'll include links in the description, and uh so you folks can find him. 00:45:07.679 --> 00:45:11.039 And I'll also include a link to uh John's book. 00:45:11.039 --> 00:45:12.880 So we'll uh we'll have that up there. 00:45:12.880 --> 00:45:16.400 I'm looking forward to picking up a copy of the book and uh digging into that. 00:45:16.400 --> 00:45:19.760 So uh I mean here are my takeaways from this, right? 00:45:19.760 --> 00:45:21.360 We have agency. 00:45:21.360 --> 00:45:27.840 And life, if we allow it, life it just happens to us. 00:45:27.840 --> 00:45:29.199 But we can't look at it that way. 00:45:29.199 --> 00:45:30.079 We have agency. 00:45:30.079 --> 00:45:35.920 It's not just happening, we have the ability to shape how things are turning out for us. 00:45:35.920 --> 00:45:44.239 Now, we do make our plans for the future, but we we have to realize that the future is never going to perfectly match what we imagined. 00:45:44.239 --> 00:45:50.480 And in military terms, there's that common saying, no plan ever survives contact with the enemy. 00:45:50.480 --> 00:45:57.840 So we need that ability to embrace uncertainty and be willing to adjust as life unfolds. 00:45:57.840 --> 00:45:59.840 And I confess I'm not good at it. 00:45:59.840 --> 00:46:02.639 And that's why when I when I saw Dr. 00:46:02.639 --> 00:46:06.559 Austin's content out there, I was like, wow, love to talk to this guy. 00:46:06.559 --> 00:46:08.880 So thanks for thanks for responding. 00:46:08.880 --> 00:46:09.760 I I appreciate it. 00:46:09.760 --> 00:46:11.599 And it's been very instructive for me. 00:46:11.599 --> 00:46:13.679 So I appreciate your time today. 00:46:13.679 --> 00:46:15.039 Thank you so much for meeting with us. 00:46:15.280 --> 00:46:17.039 Well, I I appreciate the opportunity. 00:46:17.039 --> 00:46:17.599 Absolutely. 00:46:17.599 --> 00:46:23.519 This has been a great conversation, and uh it's uh something I would never tire of talking about. 00:46:24.320 --> 00:46:24.960 That's wonderful. 00:46:24.960 --> 00:46:31.440 Yeah, I can tell you're passionate about it, and it's uh yeah, you've got the spark and it's it's interesting to listen to. 00:46:31.440 --> 00:46:33.280 So yeah, thank you so much. 00:46:33.280 --> 00:46:37.599 Now, if if you enjoyed this episode, please consider leaving us a review. 00:46:37.599 --> 00:46:43.039 And uh you can also use links in the description to reach out to us, give us feedback, things like that. 00:46:43.039 --> 00:46:45.679 But until next time, we'll see you on the path.