Episode 285: ***EXCLUSIVE***Primary Poll With Famed Pollster Nicole McCleskey の全文書き起こし

in the middle of this because you asked me to do. 00:01:46.079 --> 00:01:47.840 Oh, yeah, this one, but in general. 00:01:48.079 --> 00:01:48.640 In general. 00:01:48.959 --> 00:01:52.079 Um, you know, usually we don't do these for public consumption. 00:01:52.239 --> 00:01:52.319 Yeah. 00:01:52.480 --> 00:01:54.799 It's to inform campaigns and how to run them better. 00:01:55.040 --> 00:01:55.200 Right. 00:01:55.439 --> 00:01:58.799 Um, so it's really kind of rare we do this kind of to share. 00:01:59.040 --> 00:01:59.359 Yeah. 00:01:59.599 --> 00:02:02.560 Um, so you know, I've been doing this for 30 years. 00:02:02.719 --> 00:02:06.159 Um and in New Mexico, gosh, since 2000. 00:02:06.319 --> 00:02:06.560 Yeah. 00:02:06.799 --> 00:02:08.879 Um and we're usually always right. 00:02:09.039 --> 00:02:09.199 Yeah. 00:02:09.360 --> 00:02:10.400 Well, we're always right. 00:02:11.599 --> 00:02:13.439 There have been some, there have been some tough moments. 00:02:14.159 --> 00:02:14.800 And there's tough moments. 00:02:15.280 --> 00:02:24.000 Yeah, no, I remember in when you gave us a I remember when we started the general in 2022, you you did a poll, we were up three against Michelle. 00:02:24.400 --> 00:02:27.439 Dobbs comes out, the abortion decision, and we go down 12. 00:02:27.599 --> 00:02:27.759 Right. 00:02:28.000 --> 00:02:31.680 I mean, and when you came out with that, I was like, oh, and we had to battle our way back. 00:02:31.840 --> 00:02:34.560 And we did to a large degree, but didn't get all the way there. 00:02:34.639 --> 00:02:38.639 But but I will say, you've shown me polls at times when it's been rough. 00:02:38.719 --> 00:02:38.879 Yeah. 00:02:39.280 --> 00:02:41.280 And it's turned out to be turned out to be true. 00:02:41.520 --> 00:02:48.639 Jay, in a campaign critical, the the good polling is critical, especially in a campaign where you're really serious about winning. 00:02:48.879 --> 00:02:49.599 Well, absolutely. 00:02:49.680 --> 00:02:54.639 I mean, and really everyone likes to focus on the horse race number, you know, where's the ballot at? 00:02:55.120 --> 00:03:07.120 In a campaign, obviously that's important, but you're also looking for a lot of stuff, whether image, you're testing messages, you're kind of trying to determine, you know, everyone thinks people do polls and then they talk about whatever the poll says. 00:03:07.199 --> 00:03:07.280 Yeah. 00:03:07.439 --> 00:03:16.800 But what you're really doing is you're testing a candidate's background and a candidate's positions, and then trying to figure out about that candidate what is most appealing and what moves voters the the most. 00:03:16.879 --> 00:03:23.039 And and so there's a lot more to it that becomes really useful for a campaign outside the horse race number. 00:03:23.199 --> 00:03:24.319 Yeah, yeah, no doubt. 00:03:24.479 --> 00:03:26.319 And then, Nicole, how do you guys do this? 00:03:26.400 --> 00:03:29.840 Before we get into the details on those things, people say, Oh my gosh, how do you? 00:03:30.000 --> 00:03:36.719 And this reminds me going back to television days and Nielsen numbers where everybody's like, How do you how do you know what a whole state's doing with 400 boxes or whatever? 00:03:36.960 --> 00:03:38.879 How do you know when you interview 400 people? 00:03:39.439 --> 00:03:39.840 Statistics. 00:03:40.000 --> 00:03:40.319 Yeah. 00:03:40.479 --> 00:03:48.159 Um, so this survey we did 400, sample 400 Republican primary voters, um, which gives you a margin of error plus or minus 4.9%. 00:03:48.719 --> 00:03:48.800 Yeah. 00:03:48.960 --> 00:03:54.560 So if you did this 95 times, you'd get the same result within a margin of error for 4.9%. 00:03:55.360 --> 00:03:58.719 So it's it's just basic statistics of how it works. 00:03:59.039 --> 00:04:01.039 Um get in tight there. 00:04:01.120 --> 00:04:01.599 Yeah, there we are. 00:04:01.840 --> 00:04:02.639 Get in tight, get in there. 00:04:02.960 --> 00:04:03.680 Get in tight in there. 00:04:03.759 --> 00:04:03.919 Okay. 00:04:04.240 --> 00:04:14.719 So the way we did this one, we did half of our interviews by live interviewer, live phone interviews, and the other half was by what we call text to web, where we text it and then they get a link to do it online. 00:04:14.960 --> 00:04:15.120 Yeah. 00:04:15.439 --> 00:04:21.920 Um, you know, that's just kind of a newer methodology that we're using because so many people are texting in online. 00:04:22.079 --> 00:04:22.399 Yep. 00:04:22.639 --> 00:04:24.959 Um, so that's how we did this particular one. 00:04:25.199 --> 00:04:28.480 And so it in all these things, this is not a survey monkey poll. 00:04:28.639 --> 00:04:33.519 So just so people know, these sort of things are not cheap to do, even for campaigns. 00:04:33.680 --> 00:04:34.560 Oh, it's expensive. 00:04:35.040 --> 00:04:35.600 It's really expensive. 00:04:35.759 --> 00:04:35.920 Yeah. 00:04:36.000 --> 00:04:41.279 And so so there then the reason we wanted to do it is because of the accuracy of what you get so people know what they're dealing with. 00:04:41.439 --> 00:04:48.560 But but a lot of times, you know, if you're getting even a text poll on your phone, most of that stuff is is garbage stuff that that you don't do, right? 00:04:48.639 --> 00:04:53.839 So when people look at pollsters and you work for public opinion strategies, and it's it'll say that on all our slides. 00:04:54.000 --> 00:04:56.000 But so that that's a top-end group. 00:04:56.079 --> 00:05:02.000 Are there a couple other polls that you look at and you're like, hey, when I hear from this pollster, I kind of go, eh, pay attention to it. 00:05:02.079 --> 00:05:04.000 At least they have decent methodology. 00:05:04.319 --> 00:05:06.240 Um sure. 00:05:06.480 --> 00:05:09.680 Um, I don't the media polls generally aren't great. 00:05:09.839 --> 00:05:11.839 Um, my firm does uh NBC News. 00:05:12.000 --> 00:05:12.240 Okay. 00:05:12.399 --> 00:05:14.879 So that's

a good one I trust because I trust my partner to do it. 00:05:15.279 --> 00:05:16.959 A lot of media polls are kind of bogus. 00:05:17.040 --> 00:05:17.199 Yeah. 00:05:17.360 --> 00:05:20.480 And they use some kind of iffy methodology sometimes. 00:05:20.720 --> 00:05:22.560 So I'd be very wary of media polls. 00:05:22.639 --> 00:05:26.879 Not like you said, not all poll pollsters are created equal, and not all polls are created equal. 00:05:27.199 --> 00:05:27.360 Okay. 00:05:27.839 --> 00:05:32.399 And the reason is just the to do the poll correctly, the methodology is expensive. 00:05:32.480 --> 00:05:32.639 Yeah. 00:05:32.720 --> 00:05:32.800 Yeah. 00:05:33.279 --> 00:05:35.519 So it's easier for the media to do a real cheap one. 00:05:35.680 --> 00:05:39.040 Well, plus, if you're doing a national poll, what is a national poll cost? 00:05:39.360 --> 00:05:40.160 A decent one? 00:05:40.480 --> 00:05:45.680 Well, I mean, uh an 800 sample, large, like long survey. 00:05:45.839 --> 00:05:47.199 Oh, 50, 60 grand. 00:05:47.519 --> 00:05:47.600 Yeah. 00:05:47.759 --> 00:05:47.839 Yeah. 00:05:48.959 --> 00:05:49.120 Yeah. 00:05:49.279 --> 00:05:49.759 It's expensive. 00:05:50.000 --> 00:05:52.079 And you know, we we don't cut corners in what we do. 00:05:52.160 --> 00:05:59.600 There's a lot of polling companies that will cut corners and you know, not do your quotas right in terms of your gender and your age and ethnicity and those kind of things. 00:05:59.759 --> 00:05:59.920 Yeah. 00:06:00.000 --> 00:06:02.160 Um, and it's really tough to do to do it right. 00:06:02.319 --> 00:06:04.079 Uh, and it gets expensive to do it right. 00:06:04.160 --> 00:06:04.800 So Yeah. 00:06:04.959 --> 00:06:06.720 Yeah, we just found that out when I got the bill. 00:06:07.040 --> 00:06:07.279 Okay. 00:06:07.519 --> 00:06:11.839 Um so we want to, I think what we'll start with is issues. 00:06:12.160 --> 00:06:21.199 Yeah, I think one of the things that we found that was interesting from this poll, Nicole, was what issues do voters uh feel are most important right now? 00:06:21.439 --> 00:06:31.759 And this one stood out to me as uh I was I I thought this was kind of interesting that at least here, 23%, which was the highest number, was corruption in government. 00:06:31.839 --> 00:06:32.000 Yeah. 00:06:32.319 --> 00:06:33.120 They cared a lot about that. 00:06:33.360 --> 00:06:35.279 Is that USAID kind of related? 00:06:35.360 --> 00:06:36.319 Or uh you know what I mean? 00:06:36.399 --> 00:06:36.720 Like it got. 00:06:37.120 --> 00:06:38.160 Well, we asked them about New Mexico. 00:06:38.240 --> 00:06:39.120 So this is in New Mexico. 00:06:39.360 --> 00:06:40.560 Oh, in New Mexico, okay, okay. 00:06:40.879 --> 00:06:41.040 Sorry. 00:06:41.360 --> 00:06:46.800 Of course, corruption's a big issue here because you know, Democrats are running things, so you know, they have concerns. 00:06:46.959 --> 00:06:47.279 Right. 00:06:47.439 --> 00:06:50.000 Um, so that's why it's

a top issue for Republicans. 00:06:50.079 --> 00:06:57.920 Uh, is because Bersham's been in charge and you know, yep, they're concerned about it and then obviously no sh no surprise that crime comes in as number two. 00:06:58.079 --> 00:06:58.319 Sure. 00:06:58.399 --> 00:06:59.519 Um and that's Albuquerque. 00:06:59.759 --> 00:07:00.800 And that's Albuquerque, okay. 00:07:01.279 --> 00:07:13.279 And then illegal immigration and border security, still at you know, a pretty big number at 19%, which I think is interesting because we're not hearing a lot from our Republican candidates talking about border security, which is it's kind of surprising to me. 00:07:13.680 --> 00:07:21.279 It fascinates me because in 2010, we were Susanna Martinez took that issue and owned it. 00:07:21.519 --> 00:07:33.279 And they was like everyone else, it was now everyone would run on the border, but back then no one wanted to talk about it, or they they they do it, but it was really light, and it really propelled her in the primary. 00:07:33.360 --> 00:07:37.120 And I think you have a lot of people, again, these are you gotta win the primary. 00:07:37.360 --> 00:07:46.959 These are Republican primary voters, and I don't know if they're scared of ICE stuff or the general, but you know, like we always talked about you gotta beat Philly before you can go to the Super Bowl. 00:07:47.120 --> 00:07:47.199 Right. 00:07:47.279 --> 00:07:48.399 So you gotta win your division. 00:07:48.560 --> 00:07:49.199 You gotta win the primary. 00:07:49.279 --> 00:07:49.360 Yeah. 00:07:49.600 --> 00:07:52.000 Well, and and honestly, Mark, you guys were always at the border. 00:07:52.079 --> 00:07:55.120 Every campaign you've been a part of, you're at the border talking about it. 00:07:55.199 --> 00:07:58.240 Now, given I understand that Trump has really closed that border up. 00:07:58.399 --> 00:08:03.439 So maybe people feel like it's more secure, so they're not making it a priority, but we're still a sanctuary state. 00:08:04.399 --> 00:08:05.759 The border's different than when you were running. 00:08:05.839 --> 00:08:06.000 Right. 00:08:06.160 --> 00:08:09.519 Because the border was open when we were talking about it, right? 00:08:10.399 --> 00:08:15.680 Now the border is closed, but the concern now is there's lots of people in this country here illegally. 00:08:16.399 --> 00:08:17.600 And they're getting stuff. 00:08:17.920 --> 00:08:18.000 Right. 00:08:18.079 --> 00:08:20.560 Is that that's why I wondered if that wasn't part of the corruption thing. 00:08:20.800 --> 00:08:23.279 Yeah, and they're getting stuff that working people aren't. 00:08:23.439 --> 00:08:23.680 Yep. 00:08:23.920 --> 00:08:28.720 So the failure of Republicans to talk about it in the primary is is a really big missed opportunity. 00:08:29.040 --> 00:08:34.639 Well, do you guys think in general, before we get to the next thing, and we're gonna get to the horse race here in a second, do you think this race is being

run? 00:08:34.720 --> 00:08:43.200 I I don't understand how it's being run, quite frankly, because it's not being run as if people understand that that this is a conservative electorate. 00:08:43.360 --> 00:08:46.399 To to to really connect with this electorate, you gotta be conservative. 00:08:46.480 --> 00:08:47.840 You gotta talk like a conservative. 00:08:48.000 --> 00:08:49.120 I'm not seeing that. 00:08:49.360 --> 00:08:56.159 Uh no, I mean, to me, it's a race of uh we talked about this, I think, uh weeks ago last time I was on. 00:08:56.240 --> 00:09:02.000 The lane, the conservative lane is wide open and no one wants to take it, and that's the winning lane. 00:09:02.080 --> 00:09:05.279 Yeah, do you think they're they're scared to do that because of the general? 00:09:05.440 --> 00:09:06.879 Because of what will happen in the general? 00:09:07.279 --> 00:09:08.960 You can't afford to be scared of the general, though. 00:09:09.200 --> 00:09:10.720 And it's like you've got to win the primary. 00:09:10.879 --> 00:09:12.720 Like, you know, you know, you have to win the primaries. 00:09:12.879 --> 00:09:13.039 Yeah. 00:09:13.279 --> 00:09:16.799 You have to win the primary, and what are you gonna come out in the general and say I support amnesty? 00:09:16.960 --> 00:09:19.039 And no, you're not anyway. 00:09:19.120 --> 00:09:24.559 So take the issue, and that I think that's a huge mistake because it's you play Democrat light. 00:09:24.639 --> 00:09:26.559 Yep, they're gonna vote for the real real thing. 00:09:26.799 --> 00:09:27.279 Real thing, right? 00:09:27.360 --> 00:09:33.519 I mean, I think you will find that I think most New Mexicans actually agree with a conservative position on a lot of these things. 00:09:33.600 --> 00:09:37.360 Yeah, um, and to think you have to shift in a general is just a really big mistake. 00:09:37.600 --> 00:09:38.159 Yeah, yeah. 00:09:38.320 --> 00:09:39.759 Okay, let's go to number two. 00:09:39.919 --> 00:09:42.240 I'm what we wanted to get an idea of popularity. 00:09:42.320 --> 00:09:44.240 What where is everybody in this race right now? 00:09:44.320 --> 00:09:44.639 Okay. 00:09:44.799 --> 00:09:45.759 And so here it is, right here. 00:09:45.840 --> 00:09:49.519 We take a look here at the graphic, and and you can see these different numbers here. 00:09:49.679 --> 00:09:51.519 So a couple things, first of all. 00:09:51.600 --> 00:09:54.480 The first column we have here is have have they heard of them? 00:09:54.559 --> 00:09:56.480 Have a Republican primary voter short of them. 00:09:56.879 --> 00:09:57.600 Decent, all right. 00:09:57.840 --> 00:10:06.399 I mean, they don't know them well, but but Hull, 74% have heard of him, 75% Turner, Duke's been on TV, 74 for him, and of course, Trump, 100%. 00:10:06.799 --> 00:10:08.159 So we kept Trump going. 00:10:08.320 --> 00:10:11.759 This this graphic jumped off the page to me only for one person. 00:10:11.840 --> 00:10:14.720 And and it's and it's actually Duke Rodriguez. 00:10:15.120 --> 00:10:23.200 Because when you're 50-50 and you're you're you're not, you're you're barely, you know, right side up with your own primary voters, you're dead to me. 00:10:23.440 --> 00:10:23.759 Oh, yeah. 00:10:23.840 --> 00:10:25.840 He's yeah, dead as a doornail, right? 00:10:26.000 --> 00:10:29.679 I mean, I'm I know that you've already like, but that's a that's a rough number. 00:10:29.919 --> 00:10:30.879 Well, explain that though, Mark. 00:10:30.960 --> 00:10:37.679 You kind of jumped in and assumed people understand what you're talking about because you're talking about his favorability and his unfavorability, basically being even at 22%. 00:10:38.879 --> 00:10:39.600 That's what you're talking about. 00:10:39.679 --> 00:10:40.799 So make sure you explain that. 00:10:41.120 --> 00:10:45.840 Yeah, well, it means that as many people like him as don't in a primary that he's running in. 00:10:46.320 --> 00:10:46.799 Your people. 00:10:46.960 --> 00:10:47.840 Yeah, they're your people. 00:10:48.000 --> 00:10:52.559 Like, for example, Greg Hull's at 43% favorability, 6% unfavorability. 00:10:52.639 --> 00:10:54.559 So he's he's plus 37 points. 00:10:54.799 --> 00:10:56.879 You know, Turner's plus 30 points. 00:10:57.039 --> 00:11:02.559 Trump, you know, obviously is well defined, but Trump's in you know, eight to one support. 00:11:02.720 --> 00:11:05.679 So you should be wildly popular with your own party. 00:11:05.919 --> 00:11:10.480 I mean, uh, you should be at about a four to one ratio, favorable to unfavorable in a Republican primary. 00:11:10.559 --> 00:11:10.639 Yeah. 00:11:10.879 --> 00:11:11.360 He's not. 00:11:11.519 --> 00:11:11.759 Yeah. 00:11:12.240 --> 00:11:15.679 And keep in mind, we're talking about Republican primary voters. 00:11:15.919 --> 00:11:17.679 Which is definitely not even just Republican voters. 00:11:17.919 --> 00:11:19.039 That's the hardest of the hard courts. 00:11:19.519 --> 00:11:21.519 He's one of one, like that's a problem. 00:11:21.600 --> 00:11:21.919 Yeah, yeah. 00:11:22.320 --> 00:11:23.120 Yeah, so he's dead. 00:11:23.200 --> 00:11:23.919 Okay, so we know that. 00:11:24.080 --> 00:11:27.679 So we know Hall and Turner are both similarly thought of. 00:11:28.000 --> 00:11:28.240 Okay. 00:11:28.320 --> 00:11:28.960 All right, that's good. 00:11:29.039 --> 00:11:31.279 And we know obviously that Trump is very well thought of. 00:11:31.840 --> 00:11:38.879 The thing that would that is important there is like even now, we're close to the election, less than half of primary voters actually have an opinion of them. 00:11:39.120 --> 00:11:39.759 Yeah, that's a problem. 00:11:40.080 --> 00:11:41.360 Like there's half that don't even have to be a good thing. 00:11:41.519 --> 00:11:42.639 Yeah, put it back up, Ava. 00:11:42.799 --> 00:11:42.960 Yeah. 00:11:43.200 --> 00:11:44.639 Let's just look that back, look it back up. 00:11:44.720 --> 00:11:45.919 Yeah, I so you look at them, yeah.

00:11:46.080 --> 00:11:48.799 Favorability, 43% for all, 38% for for Turner. 00:11:49.039 --> 00:11:52.720 And if you had 43 and 6, that means 49% of people have an opinion at all. 00:11:52.799 --> 00:11:52.960 Yeah. 00:11:53.200 --> 00:11:57.440 The other 51% don't know enough to that's a question for you, Jay. 00:11:57.600 --> 00:12:03.519 Is it too late for anybody to jump in on this in the next couple of weeks and get you a strong opinion about it? 00:12:03.759 --> 00:12:04.720 Oh, I not at all. 00:12:04.960 --> 00:12:16.159 This is a very, I wouldn't see what Nicole thing, but I think it's an undefined race in the sense where like she's talking about whole turn, like you have half the electorate doesn't have an opinion yet of these candidates. 00:12:16.399 --> 00:12:19.759 And and the ones that have an opinion, how strong of an opinion? 00:12:19.840 --> 00:12:22.320 I think the strongest opinions are gonna be duke's negatives. 00:12:22.480 --> 00:12:22.799 Yeah. 00:12:23.200 --> 00:12:28.639 Well, uh outside of that, like there's a lot, I mean, voters are still learning who these candidates are. 00:12:28.799 --> 00:12:31.360 Yeah, you can figure you can you can win the last two weeks for sure. 00:12:31.519 --> 00:12:31.679 Yeah, yeah. 00:12:31.759 --> 00:12:34.639 With with you got enough money, you got to talk to people, and yeah, they gotta hear you. 00:12:34.799 --> 00:12:34.960 Yeah. 00:12:35.440 --> 00:12:37.919 And we'll get into how you talk to them because we polled that too. 00:12:38.080 --> 00:12:39.519 But who's actually voting? 00:12:39.679 --> 00:12:41.600 So who are we really talking about here? 00:12:41.759 --> 00:12:44.720 And and the numbers on this are are this is key. 00:12:44.799 --> 00:12:48.159 And and this is where I think I I can't believe where the race is right now. 00:12:48.399 --> 00:12:55.200 54% of Republican primary voters are very conservative in this poll, and 28% are somewhat conservative. 00:12:55.279 --> 00:12:56.720 That's a massive number. 00:12:56.799 --> 00:13:00.159 That's 82% are it's rock rib conservatives here. 00:13:00.320 --> 00:13:00.720 Yeah. 00:13:00.879 --> 00:13:08.480 Um, and just going back to the the point about their favorability though, too, it's just like what will happen is those that don't know them will not vote. 00:13:08.639 --> 00:13:10.799 And you know, right now you're talking to your conservatives. 00:13:10.960 --> 00:13:12.960 I'm not surprised that we're at 80% conservative plus. 00:13:13.279 --> 00:13:15.200 That's it, that's pretty typical in a primary. 00:13:15.279 --> 00:13:16.480 But okay. 00:13:16.720 --> 00:13:17.759 Okay, so here we go. 00:13:17.919 --> 00:13:18.879 You want to know the real number? 00:13:19.039 --> 00:13:19.440 Where are we at? 00:13:19.679 --> 00:13:21.279 Yeah, let's let's just drop the hammer right now. 00:13:21.519 --> 00:13:25.759 All right, this is where we're at in this race, and it is going to be very close, and it is close. 00:13:25.919 -->

00:13:35.440 Right now, Hull at 33%, Turner at 30, and the Duke is at 12, but the big number here to me, 25% undecided. 00:13:35.519 --> 00:13:37.039 Nicole, what do these numbers tell you? 00:13:37.279 --> 00:13:38.320 Um, it's a close race. 00:13:38.399 --> 00:13:39.440 Yeah, anybody can win that. 00:13:39.519 --> 00:13:40.159 Well, not anybody. 00:13:40.240 --> 00:13:42.000 We already said can't win it. 00:13:42.159 --> 00:13:42.240 Right. 00:13:42.399 --> 00:13:44.240 Um, but Huller Turner's gonna win this thing. 00:13:44.320 --> 00:13:44.639 Yeah. 00:13:44.799 --> 00:13:44.879 Okay. 00:13:45.519 --> 00:13:48.320 And I would say this is a close race right now. 00:13:48.399 --> 00:13:49.840 I don't know that it'll be close. 00:13:50.399 --> 00:13:54.000 This could easily be a 10, 15, 20 point race. 00:13:54.320 --> 00:13:55.039 One way or the other. 00:13:55.279 --> 00:13:57.279 It depends on how you execute down the stretch. 00:13:57.360 --> 00:13:57.440 Okay. 00:13:57.759 --> 00:13:59.039 I I go back, we talked about this. 00:13:59.120 --> 00:14:03.679 I think Suzanne, I think we were down six, maybe three and a half weeks out. 00:14:04.000 --> 00:14:05.279 And she won by 26. 00:14:05.360 --> 00:14:05.679 Yeah, wow. 00:14:05.840 --> 00:14:07.120 And it was a lot of money. 00:14:07.360 --> 00:14:11.840 Because it goes back to that point where you have half the electorate, doesn't have an opinion, they have soft opinions. 00:14:12.000 --> 00:14:16.480 If all of a sudden they get new information, that's gonna swing it one way or the other. 00:14:16.639 --> 00:14:24.559 If these guys, if Hole and Turner spend evenly and effectively, and they're even they're both the same level of effectiveness, yeah, it could be close. 00:14:24.639 --> 00:14:24.799 Right. 00:14:25.039 --> 00:14:33.919 If one side spends more than the other and um is more strong with their messaging, it could it could be big gap one way or the other. 00:14:34.159 --> 00:14:34.720 Right. 00:14:35.039 --> 00:14:40.320 Um so but is there any reason to bel so I've seen we've talked about this. 00:14:40.559 --> 00:14:46.399 Turner's uh an IE that's jumped in and supported Turner has been going negative on Hull. 00:14:46.720 --> 00:14:48.559 And and and we've talked about this before. 00:14:49.039 --> 00:14:51.519 This is the big boy class now. 00:14:51.600 --> 00:14:53.919 You do you don't get to win this thing without going after your opponent. 00:14:54.000 --> 00:14:55.440 I'm sorry, it's just how it works, right? 00:14:55.759 --> 00:14:56.000 Right. 00:14:56.159 --> 00:15:01.919 So if Turner's going after Hull, Hull doesn't appear to be going after Turner in any sort of significant way. 00:15:02.000 --> 00:15:04.559 So does that put Turner in a better position to beat Hull now? 00:15:04.799 --> 00:15:05.120 100%. 00:15:05.440 --> 00:15:05.919 Yeah, yeah. 00:15:06.000 --> 00:15:14.240 I mean, if if if Hull does not meet that and have a real debate and point out some of the stuff with Turner, he's gonna get crushed. 00:15:14.399 --> 00:15:14.639 Yeah. 00:15:14.799 --> 00:15:16.399 I mean, and he's he has stuff. 00:15:16.480 --> 00:15:18.320 I mean, what is it? 00:15:18.399 --> 00:15:20.000 A lot of those contracts that they're talking about. 00:15:20.159 --> 00:15:31.200 Turner took$600,000 from Biden to promote DEI, took a million to promote the infrastructure act for Biden, and six million to from MLG to promote the COVID stuff. 00:15:31.360 --> 00:15:33.440 If voters hear that, that shifts it. 00:15:33.600 --> 00:15:39.200 Right now, they're just hearing the hits on Hole with his time as mayor, and I got a mailing about it the other day. 00:15:39.360 --> 00:15:42.480 If that's all they hear, Hull's gonna get crushed. 00:15:42.720 --> 00:15:46.720 So he can feel good about himself after a 20-point loss if you decide to do that. 00:15:46.879 --> 00:15:49.120 We don't call it going negative, we call it voter education. 00:15:49.840 --> 00:15:50.639 Well, no, it's true. 00:15:52.000 --> 00:16:16.000 I remember this very vividly in Mark's race because, and we won't go into all the nitty-gritty on our race, but I do remember, you know, when we, especially when we were really green in the Senate race and things of that nature, talking about how do you stay positive and how when you are somebody that's kind of a positive guy, like Mark's very positive guy, thought I can just run on only positive ads and not really point out what the other candidate's doing badly or isn't as strong as me. 00:16:16.080 --> 00:16:18.559 But I'm just gonna talk about me and how what I'm gonna do. 00:16:18.720 --> 00:16:20.159 That works up to a point. 00:16:20.320 --> 00:16:31.759 But when a race is pretty close, you do have to carve a way to get away from your competitor, talking about this is where this person stands on this, and this is where I'm gonna be on this. 00:16:31.840 --> 00:16:35.679 And that gets poised as a negative ad, nine times out of ten, correct? 00:16:35.919 --> 00:16:40.320 Well, and it's it's a debate about issues, and voters have a right to know where candidates stand on the issues. 00:16:40.559 --> 00:16:44.720 And you remember the last primary, we we we said we'd be positive until attacked. 00:16:44.879 --> 00:16:45.600 And why'd we say that? 00:16:45.679 --> 00:16:47.120 Because you have like a 30-point lead. 00:16:47.360 --> 00:16:53.200 But once we get attacked, you're crazy not to because people do attack people evaporate in a party. 00:16:53.600 --> 00:17:05.279 Now, here's a question for you because in some races, like we've talked about this, the Sam Bregman and the Deb Holland one, when Sam Bregman attacks Deb, his likability score, his favorability scores, they drop. 00:17:05.519 --> 00:17:11.279 Do you think if like Hull goes after Doug Turner, at this point, will it have any impact on his favorability? 00:17:11.680 --> 00:17:17.599 I don't think so because they're both of these, as long as you're doing it on

issues, and Nicole can talk about this a lot more. 00:17:17.680 --> 00:17:21.759 If you're it depends on how the negatives, the negatives aren't going to go up because you're attacking somebody. 00:17:21.920 --> 00:17:27.839 Hull's negatives are going up because of what they're getting from Turner's group about is is his shortcomings, and vice versa. 00:17:28.000 --> 00:17:34.559 I think what's happening with Bregman is he's they've they're figuring out he's a moderate, it's a liberal primary. 00:17:34.720 --> 00:17:36.559 He's a personality. 00:17:36.799 --> 00:17:38.640 And he's a generally unlikable human, right? 00:17:38.720 --> 00:17:38.799 Right. 00:17:38.880 --> 00:17:38.960 Right. 00:17:39.200 --> 00:17:40.480 Plus he's he comes off of the bullshit. 00:17:40.960 --> 00:17:43.759 You're talking about Epstein, you're you're trying to tire to Epstein. 00:17:43.839 --> 00:17:48.079 That's that's different than telling saying someone pointing out someone voted to raise taxes or something. 00:17:48.319 --> 00:17:48.480 Right. 00:17:48.799 --> 00:17:51.440 So it also depends on what issue you're contrasting. 00:17:51.839 --> 00:17:52.880 Okay, so let's talk about that. 00:17:53.039 --> 00:18:04.319 What where do we see like if you were like a strategic like let's say that you were hired to talk about what maybe Hull could do differently right now. 00:18:04.480 --> 00:18:06.240 You got three weeks left in the campaign. 00:18:06.400 --> 00:18:10.480 What does his campaign do to stand to come out and get really strong here? 00:18:10.880 --> 00:18:18.960 Well, I mean, they they have to spend their well, I don't know what how much money they have, but they have to uh spend it as effectively as possible. 00:18:19.599 --> 00:18:22.640 They're gonna have to contrast with Turner because Turner's attacking him. 00:18:22.880 --> 00:18:27.920 They're gonna have to put forward a conservative message, a positive message about him and define him. 00:18:28.000 --> 00:18:31.119 Because despite what they all think, is that everyone knows him, they don't really. 00:18:31.200 --> 00:18:31.359 No. 00:18:31.519 --> 00:18:32.960 So you gotta kind of do both. 00:18:33.039 --> 00:18:40.319 You know, it's not that you just have to go negative and burn down the house, but you have to you can't sit there and get hit. 00:18:40.400 --> 00:18:41.359 It'll you'll see. 00:18:41.440 --> 00:18:47.279 I think the journal had um Turner or Hole up by what, 10 or something, you know, and now it's closing. 00:18:47.359 --> 00:18:50.160 Yeah, and it's gonna keep closing and Turner's gonna go right past it. 00:18:50.400 --> 00:19:01.920 I mean, if Turner's allowed to claim the conservative lane, that is that that's a travesty because of his lifelong record as a moderate, if not a liberal. 00:19:02.079 --> 00:19:04.640 So if Hull can't do that, complete failure. 00:19:05.119 --> 00:19:07.200 Well, yeah, and if Hole can't do that, then you shouldn't be the nominator. 00:19:07.440 --> 00:19:07.920 Well, no, you shouldn't. 00:19:08.400 --> 00:19:11.839 If you're not prepared to do what it takes to get out of the way, I'm not gonna be do prove anything to do. 00:19:12.160 --> 00:19:16.559 I agree, but to your point, Nicole, you we go and look at the numbers on on graphic five. 00:19:16.799 --> 00:19:18.000 This is what's crazy, right? 00:19:18.079 --> 00:19:20.720 You go to the most conservative parts of the state, and who does the best? 00:19:20.960 --> 00:19:21.200 That's crazy. 00:19:21.440 --> 00:19:22.319 Doug Turner, right? 00:19:22.400 --> 00:19:25.119 And if you're here in the Albuquerque area, you've heard of Rio Rancho. 00:19:25.279 --> 00:19:28.880 You you've heard that real life in Rio Rancho is better than life in Albuquerque. 00:19:29.039 --> 00:19:36.319 The guy who runs Rio Rancho is running for governor, and so you support him 48 to 21 in the greater Albuquerque area for Hull in this poll. 00:19:36.480 --> 00:19:39.680 Now, if you go other places, Northwest is a coin flip between the two. 00:19:39.839 --> 00:19:45.759 You go to the Southwest and fewer voters there, but still, but then the East, 46-17 for Turner. 00:19:45.920 --> 00:19:46.160 Why? 00:19:46.319 --> 00:19:48.079 Why is Turner dominating the Southeast? 00:19:48.240 --> 00:19:50.079 You have a guess he probably has a campaign there. 00:19:50.240 --> 00:19:50.559 He does. 00:19:50.640 --> 00:19:51.279 I mean, he would have to be. 00:19:51.440 --> 00:19:53.039 He's raising money there, and he's that's recently. 00:19:53.440 --> 00:19:54.880 He's got some mail, he's doing digital. 00:19:55.119 --> 00:19:58.400 I it would say that Hull has functionally no campaign outside of Albuquerque. 00:19:58.640 --> 00:19:58.799 Right. 00:19:58.960 --> 00:20:00.240 Okay, so let me ask you that. 00:20:00.480 --> 00:20:09.039 So obviously, when Mark ran, the big thing for us that was a turning point for us, I remember it very vividly in the war room, and I was begging you guys to triple check your numbers and all that. 00:20:09.119 --> 00:20:09.680 Remember all that? 00:20:09.759 --> 00:20:10.480 I'm sure you know that well. 00:20:10.880 --> 00:20:11.359 Try to forget. 00:20:11.519 --> 00:20:12.880 Yeah, I know we all try to forget that. 00:20:13.119 --> 00:20:19.440 But the biggest thing that I remember is the reason that we knew so early that night, which people still ask me, how did you guys know so early? 00:20:19.599 --> 00:20:21.519 And it's what Nicole said statistics, right? 00:20:21.680 --> 00:20:25.440 That Bernalillo County has a tremendous amount of weight in a statewide race. 00:20:25.680 --> 00:20:33.119 So seeing that Hall is still like the the leader in Bernalillo County and up here, does that give him the upper edge? 00:20:33.359 --> 00:20:34.880 Well, yeah, because he's leading in the race. 00:20:34.960 --> 00:20:41.200 But with, I mean, Bernalio or the Albuquerque metro area is about 44% of a prior of the primary turnout. 00:20:41.599 -->

00:20:51.920 So yeah, you can you can make up a lot of ground just by winning big in Albuquerque, but you can also win by winning the surrounding areas by by those kind of margins. 00:20:52.319 --> 00:21:05.839 And I'd say in a in a primary, it's less, you know, the east if if I was working for Hole and I saw these numbers I and I and I and you had resources and the willingness to run a campaign, I'd love them because I know those numbers are evaporate. 00:21:06.079 --> 00:21:11.200 Those numbers would evaporate in a week of a thousand points of TV on some of those contracts. 00:21:11.359 --> 00:21:15.599 But well, then you want a little contrast on immigration on Turner. 00:21:15.759 --> 00:21:16.400 Yeah, okay. 00:21:17.359 --> 00:21:21.039 But here's the problem, but if you don't raise the money, then you can't you can't do it. 00:21:21.359 --> 00:21:24.480 And Turner, they're running a campaign, they're not just gonna let him do it. 00:21:24.640 --> 00:21:28.319 They're gonna they're gonna hit Hole back and they're gonna make it harder for him. 00:21:28.480 --> 00:21:39.920 So it's even Hole can even do that, and they've kind of put themselves in a whole because because Turner's Turner and the pack supporting Turner are not just gonna sit back and let him, they're gonna be attacking Hole at the same point. 00:21:40.000 --> 00:21:42.720 So let's talk about those attacks though for a second. 00:21:42.960 --> 00:21:46.400 Because uh most of them have been this sort of deal, right? 00:21:46.559 --> 00:21:52.720 Everybody it's funny because everybody thinks mail's dead, but it's not in a Republican primary, right? 00:21:52.960 --> 00:21:57.680 In a Republican primary, things like this are very effective, which is which is Turner's hit on hull. 00:21:57.839 --> 00:21:58.160 Uh huh. 00:21:58.319 --> 00:21:59.599 Okay, and that has come through. 00:22:00.240 --> 00:22:04.799 And we also pulled that to figure out, hey, where are you getting your information from these campaigns? 00:22:05.039 --> 00:22:06.960 One more Ava number six, please. 00:22:07.119 --> 00:22:10.319 And and you can see right here, you're getting it. 00:22:10.400 --> 00:22:14.319 If you're if you're finding out about Hull, it's from social media posts more than anything else. 00:22:14.400 --> 00:22:15.279 That's a problem for that. 00:22:15.440 --> 00:22:16.000 That's crazy. 00:22:16.079 --> 00:22:16.240 Yeah. 00:22:16.400 --> 00:22:17.839 I I I can't believe they're fine. 00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:21.839 I mean, for both of them, finding out most about them through social media. 00:22:22.000 --> 00:22:22.160 Yeah. 00:22:22.319 --> 00:22:28.640 Well, what I what stood out to me was it says that 12% said that they've heard of Hull from television ads, but I don't think he's done a TV ad. 00:22:29.119 --> 00:22:33.200 Well, and and sometimes people get confused about between what they see online versus what they see on Twitter. 00:22:33.359 --> 00:22:33.759 Oh, that's true. 00:22:33.920

--> 00:22:35.200 There's a there is some confusion there. 00:22:35.359 --> 00:22:35.519 Okay. 00:22:35.680 --> 00:22:41.839 Or I always like in polls, you'll ask, like, where did you hear that information, the negative information about a candidate? 00:22:42.000 --> 00:22:43.759 And almost always like, I read it somewhere. 00:22:43.920 --> 00:22:44.000 Yeah. 00:22:45.440 --> 00:22:47.680 They don't admit that the TV ads what persuaded them. 00:22:47.920 --> 00:22:49.680 Like, I was doing a lot of research and I read it. 00:22:50.000 --> 00:22:51.599 Or I was on TikTok and I saw the ad. 00:22:52.000 --> 00:22:58.079 Well, I also think a TV ad could be blurred with like a news story, or they saw the debate on KRQE or something like that, and they confused it with TV. 00:22:58.319 --> 00:22:59.920 Or they're seeing a TV ad online. 00:23:00.240 --> 00:23:02.160 Like they're running, I think they're both running streaming. 00:23:02.240 --> 00:23:06.799 I know Turner's running a lot better streaming, a lot more on digital than um. 00:23:07.359 --> 00:23:10.640 And people get confused between streaming TV and TV sites. 00:23:14.559 --> 00:23:19.440 Turner's running a campaign and no one else really is really looking at it. 00:23:19.759 --> 00:23:20.160 Right, right. 00:23:20.480 --> 00:23:21.440 Hey, come on now, Duke. 00:23:21.519 --> 00:23:23.839 I saw Duke's Billboard, and I know how important billboards are. 00:23:26.079 --> 00:23:29.599 I missed on the primary voters' important issues was saving para. 00:23:30.000 --> 00:23:30.160 Yeah. 00:23:30.319 --> 00:23:32.240 That I keep seeing on like Duke's billboards. 00:23:32.640 --> 00:23:36.480 Yeah, he's for a guy who is the smartest guy in the room, he's running an interesting campaign. 00:23:36.720 --> 00:23:36.880 Yeah. 00:23:37.039 --> 00:23:39.839 He's running a very countercultural campaign to winning. 00:23:40.000 --> 00:23:44.559 Um, so let's talk a little bit about then where where you think this is right now, then. 00:23:44.720 --> 00:23:46.480 Okay, so Nicole, where are we? 00:23:46.559 --> 00:23:47.759 You're looking at these numbers. 00:23:47.920 --> 00:23:51.279 If you're sitting in a room with, let's start with Turner. 00:23:51.440 --> 00:23:54.160 If you're sitting in a room with Turner, what are you telling him? 00:23:54.880 --> 00:23:55.920 What am I telling him? 00:23:56.319 --> 00:23:57.359 We're doing the right thing. 00:23:57.599 --> 00:23:57.839 Yeah. 00:23:57.920 --> 00:23:58.720 You're doing the right thing. 00:23:59.359 --> 00:24:01.039 I just can't imagine being in that room. 00:24:03.200 --> 00:24:06.799 But the very channel pretend if you well, it's like you're in the wrong one. 00:24:07.920 --> 00:24:08.799 They're running a campaign. 00:24:08.880 --> 00:24:14.799 Yeah, and they're they're it's gonna it's not showing up here yet because I don't know how much negative there's been. 00:24:15.039 --> 00:24:16.000 Is that yeah? 00:24:16.240 --> 00:24:17.279 It's not enough yet. 00:24:17.440 --> 00:24:20.319 Yeah, but he's right, he's in the race. 00:24:20.480 --> 00:24:20.640 Yeah. 00:24:20.799 --> 00:24:24.880 And by the way, so Duke, Duke's the only one who's really hit Turner. 00:24:25.039 --> 00:24:26.559 And and did that just not land? 00:24:26.799 --> 00:24:36.079 I mean, once you do a text messaging, though, everyone loves text messaging because they're like, oh, it really and they have no idea how few people you're actually reaching that actually goes through and what impact it has. 00:24:36.160 --> 00:24:36.480 Yeah, okay. 00:24:36.640 --> 00:24:39.039 But it's easy to say, oh, we hit you know 200,000. 00:24:40.640 --> 00:24:41.839 You didn't actually hit 200,000. 00:24:42.160 --> 00:24:43.440 The text company that's fleecing you. 00:24:43.519 --> 00:24:43.680 Yeah. 00:24:43.839 --> 00:24:44.400 Um, okay. 00:24:44.559 --> 00:24:49.200 So so then you're in the room with Hull and you're saying, okay, what are you telling Greg? 00:24:49.359 --> 00:24:52.079 I although we don't know what kind of we got to assume they don't have any money. 00:24:52.160 --> 00:24:53.759 I I don't know how else to what else to do. 00:24:54.160 --> 00:24:57.279 They gotta have enough where what was the last one, like 250,000? 00:24:57.839 --> 00:24:58.480 It just depends. 00:24:58.799 --> 00:25:06.480 One trap campaigns I think run into all the time is if they don't have enough money and they see Turner on TV and Turner doing this, and Turner has a pack. 00:25:06.640 --> 00:25:08.960 So it's not just Turner money, it's not really Turner money. 00:25:09.039 --> 00:25:10.160 The packs can outspend him. 00:25:10.319 --> 00:25:10.480 Right. 00:25:10.640 --> 00:25:13.119 The PAC's running the strong campaign now the two. 00:25:13.440 --> 00:25:13.599 Right. 00:25:13.839 --> 00:25:15.759 But the they try to do everything. 00:25:15.920 --> 00:25:17.359 Let's do a little of this and a little that. 00:25:17.519 --> 00:25:32.240 They need to pick a couple mediums and try to own it, whether it's direct mail, whether it's you know, I don't want to reveal a whole bunch, but like I'd have a couple other strategies, but you gotta you have to think how can I effectively communicate my message to the voters that matter. 00:25:32.720 --> 00:25:34.400 Well, let's just say they have to be disciplined about it. 00:25:34.480 --> 00:25:36.640 They can't go, we're gonna spend a little on this and a little on that. 00:25:36.799 --> 00:25:38.640 Because when you do that, you end up with what you have to do. 00:25:38.799 --> 00:25:42.319 Yeah, and I think we've won campaigns with a with being underfunded. 00:25:42.559 --> 00:25:48.079 I mean, you can do it, you have to be smarter about it and you have to see that the negative stuff and say, uh enough. 00:25:48.400 --> 00:25:49.839 Yeah, I'm not gonna take this, right? 00:25:50.160 --> 00:25:55.200 Yeah, you can't sit there and spend a bunch of money on billboards and four by eights, but you don't have

enough money for direct mail. 00:25:55.279 --> 00:26:00.880 Like that's kind of the So if you had one one area that you say, okay, let's let's dedicate some money here. 00:26:01.039 --> 00:26:05.359 Would it be direct mail if you if you're if you don't have enough for broadcast for TV for TV? 00:26:05.519 --> 00:26:14.319 Everyone look in in like streaming stuff, that's really important now and targeting and all that stuff's important, but broadcast TV still moves. 00:26:14.400 --> 00:26:20.400 Yeah, it still moves numbers, and I don't care what anyone in the core, I don't care what anyone says when you in campaigns, you'd see it all the time. 00:26:20.559 --> 00:26:23.279 It's like think you put up broadcast TV, boom, there it goes. 00:26:23.359 --> 00:26:24.480 You buy it differently now. 00:26:24.559 --> 00:26:28.880 Yeah, you know, there's ways you handle it differently, but it's still the it still moves numbers better than anything. 00:26:29.119 --> 00:26:32.640 Yeah, and unfortunately, you have to have people to know what they're doing to buy it properly. 00:26:32.720 --> 00:26:35.359 Yeah, um, you know, and to and to cut the ad properly. 00:26:35.680 --> 00:26:37.599 You see a lot of garbage messaging. 00:26:37.839 --> 00:26:38.319 Yeah, right. 00:26:39.519 --> 00:26:46.000 There's I think I think the person who who's has the issue that has to fix everything is Hull. 00:26:46.240 --> 00:26:46.559 Yeah. 00:26:46.720 --> 00:26:48.640 Because Turner's doing what he needs to do. 00:26:48.880 --> 00:26:53.599 Like he, if you look at the trajectory, you draw a line from don't I don't what was the first poll that came out? 00:26:53.759 --> 00:26:54.079 Emerson? 00:26:54.400 --> 00:26:55.200 Yeah, it was Emerson's. 00:26:55.359 --> 00:26:57.039 And that's just really bad methodology. 00:26:57.440 --> 00:26:58.880 It's not like it had it, whatever it was. 00:26:58.960 --> 00:26:59.759 I can't even remember. 00:26:59.839 --> 00:27:05.839 But like if you look at where Sandarov had it in the journal, and you look at ours, yeah, it's he's going like this. 00:27:05.920 --> 00:27:06.160 Yep. 00:27:06.319 --> 00:27:11.680 And if you do this, if you nothing changes, and a week from now it's gonna be like this, election day it's gonna be like that. 00:27:11.839 --> 00:27:12.880 Yeah, that's what's gonna happen. 00:27:12.960 --> 00:27:14.319 It could easily be a 20-point race. 00:27:14.400 --> 00:27:14.799 Yeah, yeah. 00:27:14.960 --> 00:27:16.079 In Turner's favor. 00:27:16.319 --> 00:27:16.559 Yes. 00:27:16.720 --> 00:27:17.519 Okay, yeah. 00:27:17.759 --> 00:27:21.599 Okay, and Duke, we don't have any advice for the Duke or Duke's Duke's dead, by the way. 00:27:21.759 --> 00:27:25.680 And by the way, this whole issue about it raises your negatives with uh with attack ads, yeah. 00:27:25.759 --> 00:27:28.559 They've all been blistering Duke, and Duke's the only one who's taking the water. 00:27:28.640 --> 00:27:28.799 Yeah. 00:27:29.119 --> 00:27:29.599 No

one else is. 00:27:29.920 --> 00:27:30.720 Yeah, that's interesting. 00:27:30.880 --> 00:27:31.440 Yeah, it is. 00:27:31.599 --> 00:27:32.400 Um, okay. 00:27:32.640 --> 00:27:38.400 So the overall environment, I want to talk about the broader environment here for a second because you see stuff all over the country. 00:27:38.559 --> 00:27:46.960 And one thing we've said to people on this show from the very beginning is look, anytime you have a president of your own party in a midterm, uh it can be really rough. 00:27:47.119 --> 00:27:48.720 We saw it with Trump in 18. 00:27:48.799 --> 00:27:49.039 Yeah. 00:27:49.200 --> 00:27:53.680 We would have seen it with Biden in 22 had you not seen the Dobbs decision. 00:27:53.839 --> 00:27:56.000 I think Biden would have had his clot cleaned. 00:27:56.079 --> 00:27:57.920 And the whole race would have been different in 24. 00:27:58.000 --> 00:27:58.160 Yep. 00:27:58.319 --> 00:28:01.279 Actually, I don't think Biden would have been the candidate from the from the jump. 00:28:01.440 --> 00:28:04.400 But but they they got what they wanted, and and that, and that's that. 00:28:04.559 --> 00:28:11.039 So I want to show you some numbers from a Siena poll, New York Times Siena poll, and and it's rough. 00:28:11.119 --> 00:28:15.279 Okay, so the approval numbers for Trump are 37%. 00:28:15.839 --> 00:28:16.240 Yep. 00:28:16.480 --> 00:28:18.799 Uh that's tough to win with that number, Nicole. 00:28:18.880 --> 00:28:21.039 I I don't have to be a pollster to be able to tell that. 00:28:21.279 --> 00:28:22.799 59% disapprove. 00:28:22.880 --> 00:28:29.759 And then you look at the major issues where if you go back a year, you know, Trump has shed big, big numbers here. 00:28:29.920 --> 00:28:36.720 When you see those numbers, and I'll just say it for those of you guys listening and not looking, Trump 37% approval, 59% disapprove. 00:28:36.880 --> 00:28:40.160 He's got 41% approval on immigration, 56% disapprove. 00:28:40.240 --> 00:28:46.000 He's underwater by big, big numbers all the way down to cost of living, is the one is devastating too. 00:28:46.160 --> 00:28:49.599 So when you look at that, what does this tell you about the environment we're in? 00:28:49.920 --> 00:28:51.599 It's really it, I mean, it's really tough. 00:28:51.759 --> 00:28:51.839 Yeah. 00:28:52.319 --> 00:28:54.319 Those were issues a year ago. 00:28:54.480 --> 00:28:55.039 He owned. 00:28:55.359 --> 00:28:55.839 He owned. 00:28:56.000 --> 00:28:57.440 People thought he would fix the economy. 00:28:57.599 --> 00:28:57.839 Yep. 00:28:58.160 --> 00:29:02.319 He he actually closed the border, but people are like, they they forget and they say, What's next? 00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:02.480 Yeah. 00:29:02.640 --> 00:29:05.279 Because their cost of living is so high and they struggle so much. 00:29:05.440 --> 00:29:07.680 They're like, I thought the guy was gonna fix it. 00:29:07.839 --> 00:29:08.000 Yeah. 00:29:08.160 --> 00:29:10.640 So those were issues he owned a year ago. 00:29:10.960 --> 00:29:15.920 And if as if that was not bad enough, then you put in the Iran war. 00:29:16.240 --> 00:29:21.440 And that was just kind of the straw that broke the camel's back because he ran on no foreign wars. 00:29:21.680 --> 00:29:26.559 And you got even Republicans saying, you know, I I I I I can't support that. 00:29:26.720 --> 00:29:28.960 So it's it's a really tough spot. 00:29:29.599 --> 00:29:38.160 Do you do you think there's anything that Trump could do between now and November that will turn things around for the midterms for those that are running as Republicans? 00:29:38.720 --> 00:29:39.680 Can he do? 00:29:40.480 --> 00:29:47.759 I mean, do you think they I mean it's hard because what everything I've read it says even if he changed everything, even if he got gas prices lowered today, right? 00:29:47.839 --> 00:29:51.200 No, it's still hard because there's an at that climb that takes some time. 00:29:51.440 --> 00:29:58.880 It you know, we sit typically you kind of see things are baked in pretty early in the year, like January, February. 00:29:59.200 --> 00:30:04.079 It's pretty baked in, like in terms of perceptions of him and how he's done. 00:30:04.960 --> 00:30:09.359 You know, it's it's really hard to move that once it takes hold and it's just gotten worse. 00:30:09.519 --> 00:30:12.720 So I'm just not sure he can it's a big ship you got to turn around. 00:30:12.960 --> 00:30:17.039 Yeah, and it's tough because you look at some of these issues like the war in Iran. 00:30:17.440 --> 00:30:21.119 Me personally, I think he's absolutely 100% doing the right thing. 00:30:21.279 --> 00:30:25.680 I'm grateful for my kids that he's doing this, that you have to do that. 00:30:25.920 --> 00:30:31.279 And it it raises gas prices, and you and and that's different than what Biden did just on policy. 00:30:31.359 --> 00:30:34.640 We're just gonna they cause the price, you know, gas prices to hike. 00:30:34.799 --> 00:30:40.079 So those things happen, and he's got to be a leader and see things through, which is what he's doing. 00:30:40.319 --> 00:30:42.400 But it again, politically, you're gonna take some hits. 00:30:42.559 --> 00:30:46.240 Now, midterms, this is why midterms are always tough for that incumbent party. 00:30:46.799 --> 00:31:03.279 Now, I think what you have to do with this is as you have to run your own campaign as a Republican and make it about local issues and you know, like this governor's race has to be about Deb Holland and everything, and not she's gonna make everything about Trump just like you saw with Keller. 00:31:03.519 --> 00:31:09.119 Yeah, turn Darren White into Darren White into Trump, who Darren White can't stand Trump. 00:31:10.079 --> 00:31:11.440 So you gotta do that. 00:31:11.519 --> 00:31:14.319 And and if you do that, you can be successful even in very difficult years. 00:31:14.400 --> 00:31:16.559 You look at Heather Wilson carrying the city. 00:31:16.720

--> 00:31:19.119 But Jay, I would let me let's have that discussion for a second. 00:31:19.279 --> 00:31:21.440 I would argue that's not possible right now. 00:31:21.599 --> 00:31:25.680 I'm I don't think you can cleave Trump away from a local candidate anymore. 00:31:25.839 --> 00:31:28.960 I I think the world's changed until until Trump's gone. 00:31:29.119 --> 00:31:30.319 I I'm not sure you can't. 00:31:30.400 --> 00:31:32.559 And and again, a lot of times that can be good. 00:31:32.640 --> 00:31:35.279 And in some states, like New Mexico, that's tar, that's tough. 00:31:35.359 --> 00:31:36.000 Am I wrong? 00:31:36.319 --> 00:31:36.960 Are you wrong? 00:31:37.039 --> 00:31:37.759 No, no. 00:31:38.000 --> 00:31:42.319 Um, I think I think he's branded the Republican. 00:31:42.559 --> 00:31:44.880 It is his Republican Party until he's no longer there. 00:31:45.119 --> 00:31:50.240 That's a hundred getting away from him should not be the objective of a Republican candidate. 00:31:50.480 --> 00:31:50.640 Yeah. 00:31:50.880 --> 00:31:52.880 No, you gotta make it about them. 00:31:53.119 --> 00:31:54.240 Yeah, you gotta do this. 00:31:54.480 --> 00:31:59.680 You know, you gotta make it well, you know, they might have concerns about Trump, and you're definitely gonna be Trump. 00:31:59.759 --> 00:32:02.160 You don't want to run away from it because you're gonna kill your base. 00:32:02.319 --> 00:32:02.480 Right. 00:32:02.640 --> 00:32:03.200 And everything else. 00:32:03.279 --> 00:32:06.880 And it that's why this whole thing we talked about in the primer, I think, is a fool's errand. 00:32:07.039 --> 00:32:08.720 Right to try and try to get get all the time. 00:32:09.039 --> 00:32:10.559 Try to play moderate liberal. 00:32:11.039 --> 00:32:14.799 But the um you gotta make the other stuff more important. 00:32:15.519 --> 00:32:17.200 What you gotta do is make the Democrats worse. 00:32:17.440 --> 00:32:17.519 Right. 00:32:17.759 --> 00:32:18.079 I mean, yeah. 00:32:18.400 --> 00:32:19.279 No, and that's the thing, right? 00:32:19.680 --> 00:32:31.119 Because they are challenging in the state, especially when you keep you talk about Democrat control issues, why we're in the toilet on so many issues, and how that person's gonna stand up and do better. 00:32:31.279 --> 00:32:47.839 With all that said, you guys, and the fact that Trump's even not doing as well in New Mexico as he did even when he won, we get asked all the time can the can one of these whoever wins our Republican primary, can they beat Deb Holland in this race in the midterm? 00:32:47.920 --> 00:32:48.880 Do you have any predictions on that? 00:32:48.960 --> 00:32:50.880 Obviously, we don't have a crystal ball, we don't know. 00:32:51.119 --> 00:32:54.319 Things can change on a dime, and we've all witnessed that firsthand. 00:32:54.559 --> 00:32:55.759 They're gonna start as an underdog. 00:32:56.000 --> 00:32:56.400 Very clear. 00:32:56.559 --> 00:32:58.480 Like we have a very challenging environment. 00:32:58.640 --> 00:32:59.039 Yeah. 00:32:59.279 --> 00:33:04.240 And it's a set and by the way, that that same poll was showed Trump 17 underwater. 00:33:04.640 --> 00:33:07.599 You can win as an underdog with the right candidate. 00:33:08.000 --> 00:33:09.920 And she's so atrocious. 00:33:10.720 --> 00:33:12.240 I mean, okay. 00:33:12.640 --> 00:33:13.039 I agree with that. 00:33:13.119 --> 00:33:14.240 See, I think that's what changes it. 00:33:14.319 --> 00:33:14.559 I agree. 00:33:14.880 --> 00:33:16.480 If it was just a regular Democrat, I agree. 00:33:16.799 --> 00:33:18.400 Like say it was Kim Keller, you'd have no shot. 00:33:18.640 --> 00:33:19.200 Like you're cooked. 00:33:19.359 --> 00:33:19.680 You're done. 00:33:19.839 --> 00:33:20.480 But I agree. 00:33:20.720 --> 00:33:21.359 Puncher's chance. 00:33:21.759 --> 00:33:24.319 When people find out, like, it's pretty shocking. 00:33:24.559 --> 00:33:32.880 But are you guys what we talked about in our last show is there's no way we don't think the Deb Holland's team is gonna but let her uh debate whoever wins. 00:33:33.200 --> 00:33:33.839 Yeah, so we're speaking. 00:33:34.079 --> 00:33:34.480 No, no, no. 00:33:34.559 --> 00:33:34.799 I agree. 00:33:34.960 --> 00:33:35.759 Okay, I want to that point. 00:33:35.839 --> 00:33:39.119 Ava, let's go to the last rundown from our last show. 00:33:39.279 --> 00:33:41.680 Let's pull Holland on fracking. 00:33:41.759 --> 00:33:47.759 And the reason I want to bring this up is because I was stunned when I was listening to her response on fracking. 00:33:48.000 --> 00:33:50.000 It's the very first clip with Jessica Gratte. 00:33:50.319 --> 00:33:51.359 It's the first clip with Gratte. 00:33:51.680 --> 00:33:58.799 Now, what's so stunning about this is how the fact is she could dance around this issue and not deal with it the way she did. 00:33:58.960 --> 00:34:07.119 What is shocking is that she doesn't seem to have an idea of how we get our oil and gas, meaning it's on federal or state land. 00:34:07.279 --> 00:34:08.320 We're not Texas. 00:34:08.400 --> 00:34:10.639 We don't drill on private land here for the most part. 00:34:11.039 --> 00:34:13.760 We we just listen to what she says. 00:34:13.840 --> 00:34:15.119 And Jessica goes back and forth. 00:34:15.199 --> 00:34:19.199 And I honestly believe halfway through the line of questioning, I think Jessica's staggered. 00:34:19.280 --> 00:34:21.039 Like, I can't believe we're having this discussion. 00:34:21.440 --> 00:34:23.119 Keep in mind it's a former Interior Secretary. 00:34:23.440 --> 00:34:23.519 Right. 00:34:23.599 --> 00:34:23.679 Yeah. 00:34:23.920 --> 00:34:25.840 Should know this like the back of her hand. 00:34:26.079 --> 00:34:27.039 Okay, just listen to this. 00:34:27.360 --> 00:34:27.519 Ms. 00:34:27.599 --> 00:34:30.719 Holland, you have historically been against fracking in Congress. 00:34:30.800 --> 00:34:32.239 You supported the new Green Deal.

00:34:32.320 --> 00:34:36.239 You said, quote, you were wholeheartedly against fracking on public lands. 00:34:36.400 --> 00:34:36.960 Yes or no? 00:34:37.039 --> 00:34:38.239 Is that still your stance? 00:34:38.639 --> 00:34:40.079 Fracking on public lands? 00:34:40.239 --> 00:34:41.760 Um, absolutely, yes. 00:34:42.000 --> 00:34:53.840 I mean, look, we we have um a thriving gas and oil industry here in New Mexico, and uh I have no intention of you know stopping people's jobs. 00:34:54.000 --> 00:34:56.880 I think we can operate in a much cleaner way. 00:34:57.119 --> 00:35:04.320 Um one of the things that I'm proud of doing, of course, is protecting Chaco uh from gas and oil drilling. 00:35:04.480 --> 00:35:08.159 And look, there are places to drill, there are places not to drill. 00:35:08.320 --> 00:35:16.000 Um we can, I think we can protect our public lands at the same time we're growing our economy and ensuring that we have the energy for tomorrow. 00:35:16.480 --> 00:35:16.960 So she presses. 00:35:17.360 --> 00:35:20.480 That being said, we also need to move forward with our clean energy. 00:35:20.639 --> 00:35:28.559 We've we've made a promise to ourselves to move to zero emissions uh by 2050, and uh that would still be my plan. 00:35:28.800 --> 00:35:29.119 Uh Ms. 00:35:29.199 --> 00:35:34.320 Holland can uh just so I'm clear, you said that yes, you would like to ban fracking on public lands. 00:35:34.719 --> 00:35:43.599 So our public lands uh we have enough private land here in New Mexico, and that's really because a lot of the gas and oil uh drilling is happening. 00:35:44.000 --> 00:35:48.559 Um state lands, of course, that we we we look at those. 00:35:48.719 --> 00:35:53.920 When I was Secretary of the Interior, uh we moved those gas and oil permits forward. 00:35:54.079 --> 00:36:01.360 We also were able to shrink the amount of land uh that those permits were um were so yes or no? 00:36:02.239 --> 00:36:03.280 I mean, yes. 00:36:03.440 --> 00:36:04.400 I mean I yes, I think. 00:36:04.960 --> 00:36:08.719 Okay, so throw the towel. 00:36:09.599 --> 00:36:10.239 Throw it down! 00:36:10.559 --> 00:36:11.440 Throw the towel. 00:36:12.159 --> 00:36:14.880 We discovered that she should not handle a follow-up question. 00:36:15.039 --> 00:36:15.679 No, no, no question. 00:36:15.760 --> 00:36:17.199 But she shouldn't answer the first one. 00:36:17.360 --> 00:36:18.639 I mean, she shouldn't even know. 00:36:19.440 --> 00:36:22.239 The rumor is the rumor is that she got those questions in advance, Nicole. 00:36:22.639 --> 00:36:23.679 No, I don't think that she did. 00:36:24.079 --> 00:36:25.679 No, that's not the I don't think that's I don't think that's true. 00:36:25.920 --> 00:36:29.760 That's not but as a gubernatorial candidate, that's the kind of question you should expect and know. 00:36:30.239 --> 00:36:30.960 Especially if you're her. 00:36:32.559 --> 00:36:33.360 And the interior secretary. 00:36:33.920 --> 00:36:37.519 This is what opens up to me, whoever the Republican nominee is. 00:36:37.760 --> 00:36:41.360 What this says to you is she wants to cut benefits for all New Mexicans. 00:36:41.519 --> 00:36:43.039 Like that's where you go with this, right? 00:36:43.280 --> 00:36:43.840 Is it not? 00:36:44.000 --> 00:36:53.599 In other words, if if you're looking at this and you say, okay, well, she wants to get ban fracking on public lands, that means education gets cut, that means Medicaid gets cut, that means everything gets cut. 00:36:53.760 --> 00:36:56.960 Snap gets everything gets not snap, but everything gets cut, right? 00:36:57.440 --> 00:37:01.840 And so that's what you'd hammer her with from the very beginning and just bury her on that. 00:37:02.000 --> 00:37:02.159 Right. 00:37:02.320 --> 00:37:05.119 I mean, I can't believe and I think your point is right. 00:37:05.199 --> 00:37:08.960 I think it given her issues, I think they hide her. 00:37:09.119 --> 00:37:17.679 I I think you you you end up, I think she takes the Arizona governor's race from 2022 and uses that as the model, and she just disappears basically. 00:37:17.920 --> 00:37:18.639 Just run ads. 00:37:18.880 --> 00:37:19.039 Right. 00:37:19.199 --> 00:37:21.280 I mean, uh does she inspire confidence? 00:37:21.440 --> 00:37:22.480 She looks awful. 00:37:22.800 --> 00:37:31.280 And that honestly, look at some of the hearings like Bregman's doing running an ad and out on at least social media, where you're just sending a clip from one of the congressional hearings. 00:37:32.079 --> 00:37:33.119 Those aren't one-offs. 00:37:33.199 --> 00:37:35.519 Yeah, every single hearing was like that. 00:37:36.159 --> 00:37:38.800 Well, whoever wins our Republican primary better use those same clips. 00:37:39.119 --> 00:37:41.039 And that's the thing, that's what gives us the chance, I think. 00:37:41.360 --> 00:37:46.079 But it's it's pretty shocking to me that like you present this stuff to New Mexico voters. 00:37:46.239 --> 00:37:47.840 I mean, we saw it in the mayor's race. 00:37:47.920 --> 00:37:48.880 I mean, how many times? 00:37:49.039 --> 00:37:50.239 And then But it doesn't matter. 00:37:50.400 --> 00:37:50.800 It doesn't matter. 00:37:50.960 --> 00:37:51.119 Yeah. 00:37:51.199 --> 00:37:51.360 Yeah. 00:37:51.599 --> 00:37:52.559 We're just gonna elect dumb. 00:37:52.719 --> 00:37:53.760 I'm sorry, I'm not supposed to say that. 00:37:54.000 --> 00:37:57.280 Well, no, I mean it's it's frustrating. 00:37:57.519 --> 00:38:01.039 It's maddening, and obvious, obviously us at this table feel it very much so. 00:38:01.440 --> 00:38:11.360 But that's why these the Republican nominee that's why I like primaries in the sense of this whoever's gonna win the primary is gonna run the better campaign the down the stretch and raise the money to do that. 00:38:11.440 --> 00:38:11.599 Yep. 00:38:11.760 --> 00:38:27.199 And in order for us to win, you look at like Trump's number and all that, one reason that always

happens in midterms to the the um party that's in power is because all the negative information is it's basically Trump is running a positive campaign against a negative campaign because the Democrats don't have a face right now. 00:38:27.440 --> 00:38:33.519 Yeah, so whoever gets run the are we have to make the case against Holland like this, and it's there. 00:38:33.760 --> 00:38:40.960 I would just I mean, whoever then I'm should they should challenge her to two debates a week, one in every county by the time there's an election, and just she'll never do it. 00:38:41.119 --> 00:38:46.000 No, she she won't pay the price for not doing it because A, the media is not gonna hammer her on it. 00:38:47.360 --> 00:38:48.320 They're not going to be aggressive. 00:38:48.559 --> 00:38:53.280 He's been aggressive, and there's been some talk of it, but but if if you're her side, you just stay disciplined. 00:38:55.039 --> 00:38:55.840 Yeah, and just like I'm out. 00:38:56.559 --> 00:39:00.880 My vote, what I think will happen is exactly what Ben Ray did to you during your Senate race. 00:39:01.039 --> 00:39:04.320 He did debate you, but he waited until after early voting started. 00:39:04.480 --> 00:39:08.000 He came in super late and you guys did it via Zoom, if I recall. 00:39:08.079 --> 00:39:09.199 He wouldn't even be in the same room with him. 00:39:09.360 --> 00:39:10.400 Well, it's a little bit of a COVID situation. 00:39:10.800 --> 00:39:12.320 But yeah, we could have been in the same room with him. 00:39:12.400 --> 00:39:13.599 Come on, it was really good. 00:39:13.679 --> 00:39:14.480 No, no, we're gonna do that. 00:39:14.639 --> 00:39:21.599 Although, but but again, in Ben Ray, we don't always, you know, the blackjack dealer that became a button can handle him. 00:39:21.840 --> 00:39:22.079 Exactly. 00:39:22.400 --> 00:39:27.199 My point was like the whole thing, she's dumb, she's this, or get it gets it gets overused. 00:39:27.440 --> 00:39:27.599 Yep. 00:39:27.840 --> 00:39:36.639 And with Holland, that is a next level, like lacking the intellectual firepower or the capability to be governor. 00:39:36.800 --> 00:39:39.119 And that's where we throw it around too much. 00:39:39.199 --> 00:39:40.559 Oh, that can't be grammars now. 00:39:40.639 --> 00:39:41.519 I think it's overused. 00:39:41.760 --> 00:39:45.199 Yeah, Deb Holland clearly has no idea what she's doing. 00:39:45.360 --> 00:39:49.920 I can't wait till they say it's just they're running a sexist campaign, it's a bit because she's gonna be able to do that. 00:39:51.039 --> 00:39:51.440 No, no, no. 00:39:51.519 --> 00:39:52.079 Let me tell you something. 00:39:52.320 --> 00:39:57.039 If you ended up, if I was on a debate say with Deb Holland, it'd be very you'd have to be really careful. 00:39:57.280 --> 00:39:58.079 You'd be really mean. 00:39:58.239 --> 00:39:59.599 Oh no, that's the problem, right? 00:39:59.679 --> 00:40:00.639 You can't do that, right? 00:40:00.719 --> 00:40:04.800

And that's the Bregman thing where Bregman on a stage with her comes off looking like a bully. 00:40:04.960 --> 00:40:15.760 So so with her, I think you'd have to really kill her with kindness, and you'd have to really handle because we when we got ready for debates, you two would be in the room, Scott Darnell would be in, like you guys, and we go over strategy. 00:40:15.920 --> 00:40:20.480 That strategy would have to be be really careful to not look like you're beating up on her, right? 00:40:20.800 --> 00:40:22.800 I mean, she she does it to herself. 00:40:23.119 --> 00:40:24.320 You don't have to do anything to her. 00:40:24.559 --> 00:40:25.039 That's all right. 00:40:25.519 --> 00:40:28.239 You gotta take what she said, and there's enough clips there. 00:40:28.320 --> 00:40:37.280 And if she doesn't do those debates, you gotta make you got to show voters and demonstrate to them in a way where it's like Brayman's what he's running now is powerful from hearing. 00:40:37.519 --> 00:40:43.760 What's really powerful though is that's not like a bad day, that's not a one-off, and you have to show like this is just constant. 00:40:43.920 --> 00:40:49.599 Yeah, so to where you almost you shame the media, like they have a they have to ask her those questions. 00:40:49.840 --> 00:40:50.239 Yeah. 00:40:50.559 --> 00:40:53.360 Okay, let's hit on just a couple other quick things I want to talk about. 00:40:53.519 --> 00:40:58.719 I want to do a quick soundbite because I think there's been some real interest here in the Texas race as well. 00:40:58.880 --> 00:41:03.440 Uh Trump just endorsed Paxton, and which is an which is an interesting choice. 00:41:03.519 --> 00:41:05.519 I think we talked about on our last episode. 00:41:05.599 --> 00:41:06.800 And Jay, I think you agree. 00:41:06.880 --> 00:41:08.000 He's just front-running this a little bit. 00:41:08.159 --> 00:41:09.519 Paxton was probably gonna win anyway. 00:41:09.679 --> 00:41:16.400 Yeah, I think when Trump didn't endorse immediately at when it went to the runoff, and all that word was Trump was gonna endorse, and all of a sudden he pulled back for Corny. 00:41:16.639 --> 00:41:21.360 Yeah, the race uh, you know, from afar, it seemed to me like all that momentum went to Paxton. 00:41:21.519 --> 00:41:21.599 Right. 00:41:24.400 --> 00:41:24.960 Yeah, got it. 00:41:25.039 --> 00:41:26.000 Okay, so let's do this. 00:41:26.159 --> 00:41:29.760 Harry Enton talked a little bit about what's gonna happen in that race with with us. 00:41:29.840 --> 00:41:31.679 Effectively now it's gonna be Paxton Talarico. 00:41:32.079 --> 00:41:36.320 So, Nicole, I want you to talk a little bit about this, but let's get Harry Enton's take on this, and then we'll we'll talk about it. 00:41:46.320 --> 00:41:53.840 You got Taller Rico here at 44%, and then look at here Ken Paxton, a Republican, a Republican in Texas. 00:41:54.000 --> 00:41:57.760 The best he can do at this point is averaging 40% of the vote. 00:41:57.920 --> 00:42:00.639 I mean, I was looking at all the polling I could find. 00:42:00.800 --> 00:42:07.280 This is the best that a Democrat for Senate has been polling since like 2002. 00:42:07.920 --> 00:42:10.079 That is a very long time ago. 00:42:10.159 --> 00:42:15.760 When you have to go all the way back since I was in middle school, you know that the Democrat in this particular case is polling well in Texas. 00:42:16.079 --> 00:42:16.320 Okay. 00:42:16.480 --> 00:42:17.519 Uh quick thing here. 00:42:17.599 --> 00:42:23.039 First of all, I would argue that given a guy like Paxson, people are gonna come home to him. 00:42:23.280 --> 00:42:24.320 Republicans will come home. 00:42:24.400 --> 00:42:28.239 So the 40% number, I think, is fool's gold for Talarico. 00:42:28.480 --> 00:42:32.000 But Tallerico, and I just I find him uniquely repellent. 00:42:32.159 --> 00:42:36.079 I think he's the worst kind of human being that takes faith and corrupts it. 00:42:36.320 --> 00:42:36.960 He's the most dangerous. 00:42:37.280 --> 00:42:38.559 Uh uh, yeah, uh absolutely. 00:42:38.639 --> 00:42:41.360 I I just find that to be in someone who cares a lot about their faith. 00:42:41.599 --> 00:42:43.280 So just tell me your thoughts on this, right? 00:42:43.440 --> 00:42:45.039 What what what sticks out to you about this race? 00:42:45.360 --> 00:42:48.159 I mean 44% is a long way from 50. 00:42:48.400 --> 00:42:48.639 Right. 00:42:48.800 --> 00:42:51.199 And that's the best he can do in this environment. 00:42:51.360 --> 00:42:54.239 Um, you know, uh it's gonna go back to Paxton. 00:42:54.719 --> 00:42:57.119 Um, it will after the after the primary. 00:42:57.199 --> 00:43:00.159 I mean, i it'll build, it'll get he'll get there. 00:43:00.320 --> 00:43:04.400 And not a glove has been laid on Talarico yet in this race. 00:43:04.480 --> 00:43:04.559 Yeah. 00:43:04.719 --> 00:43:07.679 And there's a lot to to talk about in the record. 00:43:07.840 --> 00:43:10.159 Um and and she's just seeing non-binary. 00:43:10.239 --> 00:43:13.599 Yeah, that's just I mean, yeah, welcome back. 00:43:13.840 --> 00:43:26.719 I mean, that's it's kind of like generally what needs to happen in a lot of these campaigns is let's talk about the Democrats, let's stop talking about Republicans and tell what the Democrats expose what they are. 00:43:26.800 --> 00:43:28.559 Um, which is exactly right. 00:43:28.800 --> 00:43:30.800 It's these elections have to be choices. 00:43:31.039 --> 00:43:34.960 So Trump's taking hits on stuff because it's all about him right now. 00:43:35.039 --> 00:43:39.360 And that's that's why all you know what the party in power that always happens. 00:43:39.519 --> 00:43:40.800 We got to give them a choice. 00:43:40.960 --> 00:43:45.280 These elections cannot be a referendum on us, it can't be a referendum on Iran. 00:43:45.519 --> 00:43:47.679 It's got to be a choice between these candidates. 00:43:47.920 --> 00:43:57.039 And uh the I think the

problem you're gonna see for us strategically, for Republicans, is when you see numbers like that, all of a sudden we have to start spending money in Texas. 00:43:57.280 --> 00:44:05.039 And if money gets diverted over to Texas, you look at A big map, and you know it's a it's a word of we have to protect a bunch of sentences. 00:44:05.360 --> 00:44:06.239 Can you spend in Ohio? 00:44:06.320 --> 00:44:07.039 Can you spend in those? 00:44:07.360 --> 00:44:13.840 Yeah, you start taking and the Democrats will call it a win if they force Republicans to spend a bunch of money in Texas. 00:44:14.239 --> 00:44:21.440 Now, if they win, they I mean it'd be a huge news, obviously, but I think they'd consider it a win if they force us to spend money in Texas. 00:44:21.840 --> 00:44:22.400 Right, right. 00:44:22.639 --> 00:44:23.119 Interesting. 00:44:23.360 --> 00:44:23.679 Okay. 00:44:23.920 --> 00:44:26.239 So I guess predictions going forward here. 00:44:26.320 --> 00:44:29.039 Uh I always gotta ask the prediction model here. 00:44:29.199 --> 00:44:30.559 We'll go around the table here. 00:44:30.719 --> 00:44:37.760 Uh Nicole, looking at what you're looking at uh from the poll, you think who wins the Republican uh nomination for governor? 00:44:38.079 --> 00:44:39.760 I have to give a prediction. 00:44:40.320 --> 00:44:42.800 Be a nice, be a nice uh It's just the way we play the game here. 00:44:43.760 --> 00:44:45.760 I know it's hard, but you gotta you gotta try. 00:44:45.920 --> 00:44:47.039 You gotta play the game with us. 00:44:47.280 --> 00:44:53.440 Doesn't mean that we know anything more than you do at home other than polling and kind of some insight of running a campaign. 00:44:53.679 --> 00:44:59.440 But if you were to say today and how things are going, who do you think is gonna win? 00:45:02.719 --> 00:45:03.599 I think Turner. 00:45:03.840 --> 00:45:04.559 You think Turner wins? 00:45:04.719 --> 00:45:05.360 You think Turner wins. 00:45:05.519 --> 00:45:06.559 Okay, what about you, Jay? 00:45:06.800 --> 00:45:11.840 Um, if you look at the trajectory the way it is right now, I think Turner has the has the advantage. 00:45:12.000 --> 00:45:13.760 He's winning it right now where it's gonna go. 00:45:13.920 --> 00:45:16.079 I but I I believe it's up for grabs. 00:45:16.320 --> 00:45:17.519 I really do believe that. 00:45:17.599 --> 00:45:22.880 I think it's it could go either way, and it could be right now, it's close race, and people are saying, Oh, it's close race. 00:45:23.119 --> 00:45:26.480 Would not surprise me at all if it's double digits one way or the other. 00:45:26.800 --> 00:45:27.039 Okay. 00:45:27.119 --> 00:45:27.440 All right. 00:45:27.599 --> 00:45:27.840 You? 00:45:28.079 --> 00:45:28.559 No, you. 00:45:28.719 --> 00:45:29.119 Oh, really? 00:45:29.280 --> 00:45:29.599 Back to you. 00:45:30.000 --> 00:45:30.880 Yes, no, go ahead. 00:45:31.119 --> 00:45:31.440 Really? 00:45:31.599 --> 00:45:31.840 Yes. 00:45:32.159 --> 00:45:34.000 I'm go I'm I'm staying strong with Hull. 00:45:34.079 --> 00:45:41.440 I I think Hull's got a real shot because of his um likability in Burnley Oak County and and Sandoval County. 00:45:41.599 --> 00:45:43.519 I think there's counties with lots of voters. 00:45:43.679 --> 00:45:51.440 I mean, it's just, I don't know, maybe I'm crazy, but I just feel like his people know him up where there's more people that could show up to vote. 00:45:51.840 --> 00:45:53.360 Now, do they show up to vote? 00:45:53.840 --> 00:46:01.199 That's what I kind of hope really like this conversation today and why this conversation is important, is to get people to actually show up to vote. 00:46:01.440 --> 00:46:02.960 Because, you know, we've talked about it. 00:46:03.039 --> 00:46:07.679 Primary voters, they're not, they don't show up as much as they would say a presidential election, right? 00:46:07.840 --> 00:46:08.559 In a midterm, yeah. 00:46:08.719 --> 00:46:09.280 In a midterm. 00:46:09.440 --> 00:46:10.639 So show up to vote. 00:46:10.719 --> 00:46:15.119 If you really care and are passionate about who you want to win that primary ticket, you gotta show up to vote. 00:46:15.199 --> 00:46:20.800 So yeah, and it used to be not our our issue used to be we show up and no matter what, and that's not this party anymore. 00:46:21.119 --> 00:46:22.159 No, it's it's totally changing. 00:46:22.320 --> 00:46:22.880 Okay, so you? 00:46:23.039 --> 00:46:23.920 Oh, Turner's gonna win. 00:46:24.000 --> 00:46:27.039 It's a it's a it's you don't stop. 00:46:27.119 --> 00:46:34.639 I mean, if I felt like there was if I felt like there was money coming in uh on Hull's side, I think he absolutely could hold it off. 00:46:34.800 --> 00:46:38.159 But he th there's no and this is one I just got one problem with this. 00:46:38.239 --> 00:46:40.000 It and this is one thing we said on the last show. 00:46:40.079 --> 00:46:40.800 I'll say it again. 00:46:40.960 --> 00:46:47.039 The first question you should ask yourself if you're thinking about running for a a big time office is ask yourself if you can raise the money. 00:46:47.199 --> 00:46:52.320 Because uh don't ask yourself if your ideas are good or if people like you or you're the most popular guy here or there or whatever. 00:46:52.400 --> 00:46:52.960 It doesn't matter. 00:46:53.119 --> 00:46:54.719 What matters is can you raise the money? 00:46:54.800 --> 00:46:56.960 Because if you can't raise the money, you can't communicate with anyone. 00:46:57.039 --> 00:47:00.559 It's like you're screaming in the woods about your ideas or you're yelling at the clouds. 00:47:00.639 --> 00:47:01.360 It doesn't matter. 00:47:01.599 --> 00:47:02.239 And so that's my point. 00:47:02.639 --> 00:47:04.159 You can't win a grassroots campaign. 00:47:04.559 --> 00:47:05.199 No, it doesn't exist. 00:47:05.760 --> 00:47:08.079 When someone says that, it's usually because they don't have any money. 00:47:08.159 --> 00:47:09.199 There that's

code for that. 00:47:09.280 --> 00:47:09.440 Yeah. 00:47:09.679 --> 00:47:17.199 Because here's the thing if both if Turner, if you gave Turner$2 million and Hold two million and they spent it equally, but as effectively, Hole wins that. 00:47:17.360 --> 00:47:17.920 Oh, I agree with you. 00:47:18.159 --> 00:47:18.800 Hole wins that. 00:47:18.960 --> 00:47:19.599 I totally agree with you. 00:47:19.920 --> 00:47:21.920 He's got a um, he's gonna but he can do it. 00:47:22.239 --> 00:47:27.199 But but some of this is about people you hire too, and it's part of what helped us in 2022 and 2020. 00:47:27.360 --> 00:47:31.360 We hired the best people to help us, and that happened to be you chuckles. 00:47:31.760 --> 00:47:32.800 But but it was true. 00:47:33.039 --> 00:47:33.440 It was true. 00:47:33.519 --> 00:47:37.280 I always I can't tell you how many people I sat down with, like, well, why do you hire this person or that person? 00:47:37.440 --> 00:47:38.239 Because they're the best. 00:47:38.320 --> 00:47:42.159 And if you run your business or you hire the best people, then you do better. 00:47:42.320 --> 00:47:50.400 If you go and act like this is some popularity contest from high school and you don't want to uh offend, you know, Janice the cheerleader, then you're not gonna win. 00:47:50.559 --> 00:47:51.119 I'm sorry. 00:47:51.199 --> 00:48:03.119 I if you're not gonna go, if you can't sit down in a room and win over each time a donor that's gonna give you good money or win over the small dollar person in Farmington, you've got to do that. 00:48:03.199 --> 00:48:04.400 That's part of the job. 00:48:04.639 --> 00:48:07.760 And you like here's the other thing they talk about, how to run a campaign. 00:48:07.920 --> 00:48:13.199 You have to have enough respect for the voters to be able to debate and say, you know what, voters deserve to know this. 00:48:13.280 --> 00:48:13.519 Yep. 00:48:13.679 --> 00:48:16.960 And they and they deserve to, you know, and and they don't get offended by it. 00:48:17.039 --> 00:48:17.119 Right. 00:48:17.440 --> 00:48:18.800 Unless it's a personal attack. 00:48:18.880 --> 00:48:22.639 There's a big gap between going after somebody personally and going after an issue. 00:48:22.880 --> 00:48:24.800 Plus, the number one goal has to be to win. 00:48:24.880 --> 00:48:28.320 It can't be to be like, hey, if this other guy wins, maybe I'll still be friends with him. 00:48:28.400 --> 00:48:28.480 Right. 00:48:28.559 --> 00:48:29.199 And maybe we could. 00:48:29.440 --> 00:48:33.199 I would have been, I mean, literally, we ripped Dow's legs off. 00:48:33.440 --> 00:48:33.679 Okay. 00:48:34.239 --> 00:48:34.400 Right. 00:48:34.559 --> 00:48:36.480 And I still would have hired her to do something with it. 00:48:36.800 --> 00:48:37.199 Oh, 100%. 00:48:37.519 --> 00:48:39.920 I would have done it in a heartbeat because I had more respect for her for what she was. 00:48:40.239 --> 00:48:41.679 So you know though, they started it. 00:48:41.760 --> 00:48:43.199 I do remember that very vividly back then. 00:48:43.679 --> 00:48:44.239 And she did it. 00:48:44.320 --> 00:48:46.239 She because she had to because I had. 00:48:46.960 --> 00:48:48.800 It was like, oh my God, I can't believe it. 00:48:49.679 --> 00:48:50.159 Like, of course. 00:48:51.039 --> 00:48:51.679 And she should have. 00:48:51.760 --> 00:48:52.320 And I get it. 00:48:52.480 --> 00:48:53.920 Now I wouldn't have gone as far as she did. 00:48:54.000 --> 00:48:56.559 She could have saved herself some trouble, but neither way. 00:48:56.880 --> 00:48:58.400 I know when we had that aircraft carrier off. 00:49:00.079 --> 00:49:01.920 But no, we but I remember those decisions. 00:49:02.320 --> 00:49:08.400 As we came up to it down the stretch, we had a lead and a significant one, but we also knew it and we've had this. 00:49:08.480 --> 00:49:09.920 I had this discussion directly with you. 00:49:10.079 --> 00:49:10.639 What do we do? 00:49:10.800 --> 00:49:13.519 Do we continue to push or do we pull off? 00:49:13.679 --> 00:49:15.679 And you're like, you gotta run through the tape. 00:49:15.840 --> 00:49:16.559 Yeah, absolutely. 00:49:16.639 --> 00:49:17.280 You bury them. 00:49:17.519 --> 00:49:17.679 Yeah. 00:49:17.920 --> 00:49:19.679 I mean that, but that's again, and that's what this is. 00:49:19.760 --> 00:49:28.000 So those of you guys who watch this, that's why we want to give you this information, is just to bring the smartest people we can to you to tell you exactly what's going on behind the scenes. 00:49:28.079 --> 00:49:29.519 So now you know how this goes. 00:49:29.679 --> 00:49:32.800 I, you know, now it's up to you guys to go out and vote and do what you want to do. 00:49:32.960 --> 00:49:33.440 Yeah, and vote. 00:49:33.519 --> 00:49:36.159 And also I would just say, you know, money matters. 00:49:36.239 --> 00:49:44.639 And so if you have passion about one of these candidates, I'd I'd cut them a check very quickly because I think somebody, somebody's gonna need it to get it across the finish line. 00:49:44.800 --> 00:49:52.400 And whoever does get across the finish line, we need to rally and support that person um to beat Deb Holland, because that's really who it's gonna be. 00:49:52.559 --> 00:49:53.199 We all know that, right? 00:49:53.280 --> 00:49:54.480 Are we all in agreement on that one? 00:49:54.719 --> 00:49:55.199 Yeah, okay. 00:49:55.280 --> 00:49:55.840 I'm just making sure. 00:49:56.239 --> 00:49:58.239 Didn't know if I needed any other vets on the table on that one. 00:49:58.400 --> 00:49:59.840 Well, thanks you guys so much for joining us. 00:49:59.920 --> 00:50:01.440 I do want to just go ahead and tease this. 00:50:01.519 --> 00:50:02.719 I don't even know if Jay knows this or not. 00:50:02.880 --> 00:50:08.320 Jay, I'm gonna be out of town on election night, and you have been recommended to come and fill my spot uh with Mr. 00:50:08.400 --> 00:50:09.119 Chuckles over here. 00:50:09.199 --> 00:50:09.840 So I hope that's a good one. 00:50:10.000 --> 00:50:11.440 Chuckles and let me know but we're ready to go. 00:50:11.679 --> 00:50:14.320 So hopefully you can carry the weights to the table. 00:50:14.559 --> 00:50:15.119 Yeah, June 2nd. 00:50:15.280 --> 00:50:15.760 Yeah, June 2nd. 00:50:16.000 --> 00:50:18.480 And we'll do a show at uh the night of June 2nd once we get the results. 00:50:19.440 --> 00:50:20.880 You can't go on vacation on that night, okay? 00:50:21.119 --> 00:50:21.519 Just so you know. 00:50:21.599 --> 00:50:21.760 All right. 00:50:22.480 --> 00:50:23.440 Well, thanks you guys for joining us. 00:50:23.519 --> 00:50:24.480 Please like, subscribe. 00:50:24.559 --> 00:50:25.360 It's very important for us. 00:50:25.519 --> 00:50:27.360 If you want to sign up for emails, you know where to go. 00:50:27.519 --> 00:50:28.880 No doubt about itpodcast.com. 00:50:28.960 --> 00:50:29.519 Thanks so much, you guys. 00:50:29.599 --> 00:50:29.840 God bless. 00:50:30.000 --> 00:50:31.119 Thank you, Nicole, for actually showing up. 00:50:31.360 --> 00:50:32.000 Yeah, thanks, Nicole. 00:50:32.639 --> 00:50:33.760 Celebrity, celebrity partner. 00:50:34.480 --> 00:50:35.360 Does this mean that you'll come back? 00:50:35.679 --> 00:50:36.960 No, I'm going back in the shadows. 00:50:37.920 --> 00:50:38.960 Well, thanks you guys for joining us. 00:50:39.119 --> 00:50:39.760 Take care, you guys. 00:50:39.840 --> 00:50:40.239 God bless. 00:50:42.239 --> 00:50:45.840 You've been listening to the No Doubt About It podcast. 00:50:46.320 --> 00:50:48.239 We hope you've enjoyed the show. 00:50:48.400 --> 00:50:49.920 We know we had a blast. 00:50:50.079 --> 00:50:52.719 Make sure to like, rate, and review. 00:50:52.880 --> 00:50:53.920 We'll be back soon. 00:50:54.079 --> 00:50:59.679 But in the meantime, you can find us on Instagram and Facebook at No Doubt About It Podcast. 00:51:00.000 --> 00:51:01.679 No Doubt About It. 00:51:02.480 --> 00:51:06.400 The No Doubt About It Podcast is a choose adventure media production. 00:51:06.639 --> 00:51:09.679 See you next time on No Doubt About It. 00:51:10.480 --> 00:51:11.920 There is no Doubt About It.