2026 Midterm Preview with Lakshya Jain & Adam Carlson の全文書き起こし

a lot of speculation, and I think as time 38 00:02:08.340 --> 00:02:11.699 goes on, if it becomes more, it may become something 39 00:02:11.719 --> 00:02:16.349 we talk about earlier this afternoon, In Palm Beach, there 40 00:02:16.400 --> 00:02:19.150 was a plane crash and somebody even got video of it. 41 00:02:19.199 --> 00:02:23.240 It almost went straight down into a mobile home park 42 00:02:23.819 --> 00:02:27.680 in Palm Beach, Florida. But what makes this politically relevant 43 00:02:27.819 --> 00:02:32.550 is it was six miles from the home or compound 44 00:02:32.629 --> 00:02:37.610 or do you call it a club of a current U.S. president. 45 00:02:37.729 --> 00:02:41.710 And so that does make it newsworthy. Now, of course, 46 00:02:41.729 --> 00:02:45.409 there's rampant speculation about this or that, which We're just 47 00:02:45.449 --> 00:02:48.729 not that kind of show. We're not the tinfoil conspiracy show. 48 00:02:49.469 --> 00:02:51.870 But more will come out about this. But apparently nine 49 00:02:51.930 --> 00:02:55.349 people were on the plane. Hopefully a lot of people 50 00:02:55.879 --> 00:02:59.740 at that mobile home park were away from their mobile homes. 51 00:03:00.599 --> 00:03:02.680 Maybe it was people that leave them down there for 52 00:03:02.719 --> 00:03:05.580 the certain times of the year that they were gone home. 53 00:03:06.020 --> 00:03:09.000 And that would hopefully limit the loss of life. But 54 00:03:09.460 --> 00:03:13.219 just had to mention that as well, given the proximity. Tim, 55 00:03:13.280 --> 00:03:14.240 any thoughts on that? 56 00:03:15.479 --> 00:03:18.520 Yeah, well, I also heard that, you know, it was 57 00:03:19.419 --> 00:03:23.780 actually maybe about four miles from the Palm Beach Airport. Actually, 58 00:03:23.819 --> 00:03:32.340 that's Trump International Airport now. Air Force One had gotten 59 00:03:32.419 --> 00:03:35.479 in the air only about an hour before this crash 60 00:03:35.520 --> 00:03:39.789 happened again. I agree with you, this conspiracy stuff, there's 61 00:03:39.870 --> 00:03:44.669 plenty enough of that on social media if people desire 62 00:03:44.710 --> 00:03:46.009 to look at that sort of thing. 63 00:03:46.030 --> 00:03:48.250 But we're not going to speculate here. 64 00:03:48.330 --> 00:03:54.030 It just seems like a tragic crash until we hear otherwise. 65 00:03:54.650 --> 00:03:58.080 Yeah, and it could have more political relevance because sometimes things, 66 00:03:58.120 --> 00:04:02.039 you know, get used politically, but we've just got too 67 00:04:02.099 --> 00:04:04.979 much that we know about that we can discuss. So 68 00:04:05.039 --> 00:04:08.120 now let's get into our predictions. But the first one, 69 00:04:08.159 --> 00:04:11.000 the one I moved to the top because of what 70 00:04:11.039 --> 00:04:14.800 went on the past few days is we're going to 71 00:04:14.819 --> 00:04:17.680 start off with the Michigan Senate race. And before we 72 00:04:17.720 --> 00:04:20.660 make our prediction, we kind of have to set this up. 73 00:04:21.120 --> 00:04:24.720 This was a primary race on the Democratic side between 74 00:04:24.740 --> 00:04:29.230 Abdul Al-Sayed and and Haley Stevens. And Haley Stevens had 75 00:04:29.250 --> 00:04:32.810 gone to the Unity Breakfast the next day and had 76 00:04:32.829 --> 00:04:36.910 been supportive of Abdul El-Sayed. Obviously, she got married. It 77 00:04:36.930 --> 00:04:40.560 wasn't like she was doing a daily campaign for him, 78 00:04:40.569 --> 00:04:45.980 but she was saying and doing the right things. And then, apparently, 79 00:04:46.040 --> 00:04:49.339 earlier this weekend, there were reports that Abdul El-Sayed wanted 80 00:04:49.420 --> 00:04:53.399 her to stay away from the campaign. Also, her husband 81 00:04:54.680 --> 00:04:58.230 has come out that he was already voting and supporting 82 00:04:58.290 --> 00:05:05.430 Mike Rogers. But then just today, this morning, she endorsed 83 00:05:06.750 --> 00:05:10.379 Mike Rogers, kind of switched on her endorsement. She did 84 00:05:10.420 --> 00:05:16.019 it at an African-American church during the morning service. It 85 00:05:16.139 --> 00:05:20.180 is quite an event. We'll talk about does it impact 86 00:05:20.240 --> 00:05:23.519 our prediction. But, Tim, what do you make of what's 87 00:05:23.860 --> 00:05:24.459 happened here? 88 00:05:26.199 --> 00:05:29.560 Well, I don't know why she did that. You know, 89 00:05:29.579 --> 00:05:33.139 we talked earlier today that some people had said she 90 00:05:33.180 --> 00:05:39.420 just committed the equivalent of political suicide. And we've seen 91 00:05:39.699 --> 00:05:43.040 that there has been some blowback. There have been some 92 00:05:43.259 --> 00:05:44.759 angry people about this. 93 00:05:44.779 --> 00:05:46.779 The Michigan Democratic. 94 00:05:46.240 --> 00:05:54.959 Party has effectively kicked her out. And the party chair 95 00:05:55.019 --> 00:06:00.879 up there, I believe Curtis Hertel, announced Congressman Stevens is 96 00:06:01.019 --> 00:06:03.879 not a current member of the Democratic. 97 00:06:03.290 --> 00:06:06.250 Party, nor will she be in the future. 98 00:06:06.269 --> 00:06:11.430 So, I mean, she nailed the coffin shut on her 99 00:06:11.529 --> 00:06:16.689 political futures as far as that goes. But the only 100 00:06:16.730 --> 00:06:18.990 thing I'd make out of it, there must be some 101 00:06:19.149 --> 00:06:20.769 really bad blood going. 102 00:06:22.269 --> 00:06:23.850 Between her and. 103 00:06:25.439 --> 00:06:31.459 Dulal Syed, especially since the primary was such a bitterly 104 00:06:31.540 --> 00:06:39.139 fought thing. Razor close. She was expected to prevail, and 105 00:06:39.339 --> 00:06:46.329 she did not. And I don't know how it will 106 00:06:46.389 --> 00:06:52.519 affect her. What's going on right now, David? 107 00:06:53.560 --> 00:06:57.139 Yeah, and her staff announced, her congressional

staff, because she's 108 00:06:57.160 --> 00:07:00.540 a congresswoman in Michigan. I don't know if she's going 109 00:07:00.560 --> 00:07:03.199 to call herself an independent until the end of the 110 00:07:03.259 --> 00:07:05.860 year or she's going to call herself a Democrat. I 111 00:07:05.860 --> 00:07:08.250 don't know how that's going to affect things because they 112 00:07:08.290 --> 00:07:12.509 may meet and have votes. But her staff quit in 113 00:07:12.610 --> 00:07:15.410 revolt to this, and she really has no there there 114 00:07:15.750 --> 00:07:21.779 under the current political dynamics. Because obviously Michigan Democrats are 115 00:07:21.819 --> 00:07:25.160 now saying at least the current slate of Michigan Democrats, 116 00:07:25.220 --> 00:07:27.819 which we have to think that that's going to have 117 00:07:27.879 --> 00:07:31.000 a lot of the same figures in it for the 118 00:07:31.060 --> 00:07:34.560 next several decades, want nothing to do with her. But 119 00:07:34.620 --> 00:07:37.980 then if she decides, oh, she's a Republican, well, are 120 00:07:38.019 --> 00:07:40.189 they going to want somebody, A, that was a Democrat, 121 00:07:40.259 --> 00:07:44.490 and B, that was a member of the Obama administration? 122 00:07:44.509 --> 00:07:45.470 Right. 123 00:07:45.939 --> 00:07:49.480 She's really got nothing there. Maybe there's some type of 124 00:07:49.680 --> 00:07:53.980 new political calculus that she could take advantage of, but 125 00:07:54.060 --> 00:07:58.540 that's total speculation. I would not have two coins on that. 126 00:07:59.120 --> 00:08:00.829 And one more thing, and I'm going to hand it 127 00:08:00.850 --> 00:08:04.689 back over to you, is Mallory Mamaro did take sides 128 00:08:04.769 --> 00:08:09.370 on this thing, and she took the side of Abdul El-Sayed. Tim? 129 00:08:09.870 --> 00:08:10.110 Right. 130 00:08:11.089 --> 00:08:15.250 And the– Really big thing about this is we're two 131 00:08:15.310 --> 00:08:19.000 days before the election, and you have to wonder. 132 00:08:18.759 --> 00:08:21.139 If this particular story. 133 00:08:21.000 --> 00:08:25.899 Is now going to dominate the news in Michigan when 134 00:08:26.250 --> 00:08:34.049 the news should be, you know, the candidacy of Abdullah El-Sayed. 135 00:08:34.919 --> 00:08:39.149 and the fact that he has been running very well lately, 136 00:08:39.549 --> 00:08:42.070 and you wonder if any momentum is going to be 137 00:08:42.129 --> 00:08:47.509 blocked or if the vote is already baked in because 138 00:08:47.909 --> 00:08:52.789 early voting is already done. It wouldn't affect that, but 139 00:08:52.809 --> 00:08:57.179 it certainly might affect what's going on on election day. 140 00:08:57.220 --> 00:08:58.840 You have to wonder. 141 00:08:58.440 --> 00:09:03.789 About The supporters of Haley Stevens, if they've already cast 142 00:09:03.870 --> 00:09:07.210 their votes or if some of them now who were 143 00:09:07.250 --> 00:09:09.370 not going to vote are going to come out and 144 00:09:09.429 --> 00:09:13.299 vote for Rogers or just if it's going to blow 145 00:09:13.360 --> 00:09:17.159 back on her or just what's going to happen next. 146 00:09:17.940 --> 00:09:21.639 about this for a long time. And late into this campaign, 147 00:09:21.990 --> 00:09:24.470 you know, this race was viewed as a pure toss-up. 148 00:09:24.490 --> 00:09:25.889 But in the last couple. 149 00:09:25.570 --> 00:09:28.850 Of weeks, if the polls are right, David, if the 150 00:09:28.889 --> 00:09:33.570 polls are accurate, El-Sayed had surged out to a seven- 151 00:09:33.669 --> 00:09:37.649 or eight-point lead, and that's pretty much universal in the polls. 152 00:09:38.509 --> 00:09:43.269 And he's also been topping the magic 50% barrier. 153 00:09:43.950 --> 00:09:44.860 So I just wonder. 154 00:09:45.610 --> 00:09:48.970 If what she did is going to affect any of 155 00:09:49.029 --> 00:09:49.769 that at all. 156 00:09:51.570 --> 00:09:55.240 Yeah, I can't say it won't have any impact, And 157 00:09:55.299 --> 00:09:57.019 I'll go ahead and make my prediction, and then I'll 158 00:09:57.039 --> 00:09:58.740 let you make yours after that, because I know usually 159 00:09:58.779 --> 00:10:01.580 I put you all on the spot and I go last. 160 00:10:01.960 --> 00:10:06.509 If this were like a 2022, a 2024, I think 161 00:10:06.549 --> 00:10:08.870 that this might have been the thing that tipped the 162 00:10:08.929 --> 00:10:13.110 balance and helped Mike Rogers win. But in this political 163 00:10:13.149 --> 00:10:16.190 environment and the fact that Michigan has banked a ton 164 00:10:16.230 --> 00:10:20.399 of votes, just early votes, That will be a factor 165 00:10:20.440 --> 00:10:23.980 as well. Abdel El-Sayed is going to win. I tell you, 166 00:10:24.240 --> 00:10:26.919 when you hear him speak, I bet he is the 167 00:10:26.980 --> 00:10:30.899 smartest person in the room, in most rooms he walks into. 168 00:10:30.950 --> 00:10:33.789 But I will say this, there is a little edge 169 00:10:33.850 --> 00:10:36.470 to him that he's going to need to, you know, 170 00:10:36.590 --> 00:10:39.629 learn how to work with folks that don't always agree 171 00:10:39.990 --> 00:10:43.710 with everything. I'm not saying that that was what, you know, 172 00:10:43.769 --> 00:10:47.740 caused this issue, but that people have sensed that. and 173 00:10:47.779 --> 00:10:52.799 he's going to have to learn to moderate those two qualities, 174 00:10:53.039 --> 00:10:56.960 one that being outstanding quality or just being just brilliant. 175 00:10:57.000 --> 00:11:01.879 He was the valedictorian of University of Michigan in 2007. 176 00:11:01.879 --> 00:11:05.190 I just learned that this past week. But go ahead 177 00:11:05.210 --> 00:11:06.710 and make your prediction on this race. 178 00:11:07.669 --> 00:11:13.230 There's no political adage that says people who are truly 179 00:11:13.350 --> 00:11:18.960 undecided

historically make their decision about who they're going to 180 00:11:19.000 --> 00:11:23.580 vote for on the Sunday before the election. And that 181 00:11:23.659 --> 00:11:26.940 could affect those people. The thing is, I don't think 182 00:11:27.000 --> 00:11:30.730 there's very many of those people. I don't think we 183 00:11:30.789 --> 00:11:34.570 have as many pure undecideds as we've had. I think 184 00:11:34.610 --> 00:11:40.230 this thing is baked in. I feel confident now with 185 00:11:40.289 --> 00:11:44.570 this one like you do. and I think El Sayed defeats. 186 00:11:44.250 --> 00:11:49.250 Mike Rogers, oh, by four to six points. 187 00:11:49.350 --> 00:11:52.289 I was going to say six to eight, but because 188 00:11:52.330 --> 00:11:54.500 of the Haley Stevens thing, I'm going to drop it 189 00:11:54.549 --> 00:11:55.899 by four to six points. 190 00:11:57.000 --> 00:11:58.500 Yeah, and I will go ahead and tell you all, 191 00:11:58.519 --> 00:12:01.440 tonight I'm going to give my straight up or down prediction. 192 00:12:01.519 --> 00:12:05.659 I am not doing lines, if you will, on how many, 193 00:12:06.490 --> 00:12:09.580 but Let's go ahead and we'll see what happens in Michigan. 194 00:12:09.620 --> 00:12:11.720 We did the governor's race, and, of course, that was 195 00:12:11.759 --> 00:12:14.059 an easy one. But let's now move to the Georgia 196 00:12:14.120 --> 00:12:17.009 governor's race. I think we don't even have to know 197 00:12:17.070 --> 00:12:21.509 what Wendy's prediction would have been, obviously, not being here. 198 00:12:21.549 --> 00:12:25.230 But let's give ours. And so this campaign, I will 199 00:12:25.289 --> 00:12:29.399 say this. I've been on the air, and I supported 200 00:12:29.440 --> 00:12:33.100 Jason Estevez in the primary, and I was leery. of 201 00:12:33.159 --> 00:12:36.919 Keisha Lance Bottoms being able to consolidate things and pick 202 00:12:37.019 --> 00:12:41.700 up those voters in the general election. But she has 203 00:12:41.779 --> 00:12:46.370 run an excellent campaign in the face of just the 204 00:12:46.409 --> 00:12:50.230 most massive amount of spending we've ever seen in Georgia history. 205 00:12:50.850 --> 00:12:53.090 I think this puts Guy Milner to shame, what Rick 206 00:12:53.110 --> 00:12:57.289 Jackson's done. And Bert Jones, the sitting lieutenant governor, was 207 00:12:57.389 --> 00:13:01.350 not able to withstand this. But Keisha Lance Bottoms has. 208 00:13:01.919 --> 00:13:05.720 been able to withstand this, and she's really been building 209 00:13:05.779 --> 00:13:08.419 a lead. And this past week, we had mentioned an 210 00:13:08.620 --> 00:13:12.429 old States Navigate poll from July the other week, but 211 00:13:12.450 --> 00:13:14.490 I think it was just that got re-upped because they 212 00:13:14.549 --> 00:13:16.750 knew a new one was coming out, and it had 213 00:13:16.929 --> 00:13:19.570 very good news for not only her at the top 214 00:13:19.590 --> 00:13:23.769 of the ticket, because they didn't poll John Ossoff's race, 215 00:13:23.850 --> 00:13:27.090 but those other statewide seats. Tim, I'll let you go 216 00:13:27.149 --> 00:13:27.899 first on this one. 217 00:13:29.330 --> 00:13:30.929 Well, you know, you mentioned this. 218 00:13:31.149 --> 00:13:35.929 This one has been tight almost the entire general election season. 219 00:13:36.000 --> 00:13:38.919 She's trying to make history in three ways like we 220 00:13:38.960 --> 00:13:42.740 talked about. It's the first female governor, the first black governor, 221 00:13:43.340 --> 00:13:45.799 and the first governor who was the mayor of Atlanta. 222 00:13:45.919 --> 00:13:48.700 I didn't know if she could pull all three together. 223 00:13:49.860 --> 00:13:52.460 Her opponent, you know, has spent the money to the 224 00:13:52.500 --> 00:13:54.950 tune of $ 220 million and $ 203 million of it has 225 00:13:55.009 --> 00:13:55.850 come out of his own pocket. 226 00:13:59.289 --> 00:14:01.490 And another $ 37. 227 00:14:00.610 --> 00:14:04.990 Million has been spent by outside groups supporting him. Her 228 00:14:05.029 --> 00:14:10.789 advantage is simply that Donald Trump is underwater badly in Georgia, 229 00:14:10.889 --> 00:14:17.370 very unpopular, like 42-55, and it's dragging the Republicans down. 230 00:14:17.490 --> 00:14:19.450 And the other plus. 231 00:14:19.610 --> 00:14:22.909 She has, of course, is the popularity, I believe, of 232 00:14:22.990 --> 00:14:27.929 John Ossoff, who's pulling the ticket up with him. My prediction, 233 00:14:27.990 --> 00:14:32.809 she wins by one to three points. That being said, 234 00:14:33.450 --> 00:14:35.870 it could be a point or two more, or it 235 00:14:35.990 --> 00:14:39.490 could be just razor, razor thin. But I believe she's 236 00:14:39.529 --> 00:14:40.269 going to win now. 237 00:14:41.049 --> 00:14:44.080 Yes. Well, your good friend Vernon Jones will be glad 238 00:14:44.120 --> 00:14:48.080 to hear that y'all are in agreement on that one. Oh, yeah. 239 00:14:48.139 --> 00:14:52.639 He and I have always been simpatico for those longtime 240 00:14:52.720 --> 00:14:54.700 listeners of the show, right? 241 00:14:55.220 --> 00:14:57.970 Absolutely. Well, I agree. I think she's going to win 242 00:14:58.009 --> 00:15:02.009 this thing. It's going to be history-making in so many ways. 243 00:15:02.509 --> 00:15:05.470 And I guess most important for Democrats in Georgia, she's 244 00:15:05.490 --> 00:15:07.889 going to be the first Democrat to hold that office 245 00:15:07.970 --> 00:15:12.870 since the first day or two of 2003 when Roy 246 00:15:12.909 --> 00:15:16.950 Barnes was leaving office. And that's a period of 23 years. 247 00:15:18.250 --> 00:15:20.269 So let's go ahead and keep moving. I think we've 248 00:15:20.289 --> 00:15:23.429 got time for maybe one more before this segment ends. 249 00:15:23.870 --> 00:15:28.070 And we get to welcome in our guest, Lexia Jane, 250

00:15:28.370 --> 00:15:31.809 who's also going to be joined by Adam Carlson, a 251 00:15:31.889 --> 00:15:35.330 split ticket in this next segment. But we're going to 252 00:15:35.370 --> 00:15:41.049 talk about the Florida governor's race, Byron Donalds versus Matt– 253 00:15:41.080 --> 00:15:46.720 I'm sorry, David Jolly, running as a Democrat, former Republican. Tim, 254 00:15:46.740 --> 00:15:47.590 how do you see this one? 255 00:15:48.840 --> 00:15:53.000 Well, Charlie's run a good race. He's made a real 256 00:15:53.080 --> 00:15:55.740 race of it in the last couple of weeks to 257 00:15:55.779 --> 00:16:01.159 the point that senior Trump administration officials, including the big 258 00:16:01.240 --> 00:16:04.799 man himself, have had to come in for some rallies. 259 00:16:06.539 --> 00:16:11.110 But I think that probably helped to stabilize the situation 260 00:16:11.169 --> 00:16:14.269 a little bit for Byron Donalds. It'll be tight because 261 00:16:14.330 --> 00:16:17.960 of the national environment. But Donald's is going to hang 262 00:16:18.080 --> 00:16:20.879 on here. I'm going to say Donald's by four points. 263 00:16:22.139 --> 00:16:22.519 All right. 264 00:16:22.570 --> 00:16:24.149 This is going to be the first time you and 265 00:16:24.210 --> 00:16:26.509 I are going to diverge in these predictions. Usually we 266 00:16:26.529 --> 00:16:30.470 diverge a lot more than this at times. I think 267 00:16:30.929 --> 00:16:33.370 this is going to be a case where David Jolly 268 00:16:33.450 --> 00:16:36.779 pulls an upset. But the reason is not– trend is 269 00:16:36.820 --> 00:16:38.840 going to be a big part of it, obviously, like 270 00:16:38.860 --> 00:16:41.059 it is in all these races. But it's also going 271 00:16:41.080 --> 00:16:43.039 to be the fact that Byron Donalds is just a 272 00:16:43.340 --> 00:16:49.450 terrible candidate, particularly– for Republicans in Florida. Honestly, I think 273 00:16:49.509 --> 00:16:54.409 if Casey DeSantis is the nominee, or if, you know, 274 00:16:54.509 --> 00:16:59.159 name a ton of other Republicans in Florida are the nominee, 275 00:16:59.259 --> 00:17:02.480 not James Fishback, but, you know, somebody else that's far 276 00:17:02.519 --> 00:17:06.759 less controversial, that they could have beaten David Jolly. But 277 00:17:06.839 --> 00:17:10.880 Byron Donalds is going to have issues for different reasons 278 00:17:11.769 --> 00:17:13.970 The fact that he's hugged up as close to Trump 279 00:17:14.029 --> 00:17:16.490 as any Florida Republican is not going to help with 280 00:17:16.509 --> 00:17:19.069 some voters. There are going to be some voters that 281 00:17:19.170 --> 00:17:23.069 honestly are not going to vote for an African-American. And 282 00:17:23.109 --> 00:17:28.599 then the fact that he had the drug convictions trying to, 283 00:17:28.720 --> 00:17:32.119 you know, selling drugs, that's not going to help. And 284 00:17:32.140 --> 00:17:34.740 the fact that David Jolly used to be a Republican 285 00:17:34.799 --> 00:17:38.539 and he seems like a safe Democrat that builds that 286 00:17:38.880 --> 00:17:45.859 permission structure. for some Republicans to feel OK switching and 287 00:17:45.940 --> 00:17:49.119 voting for a Democrat. All those things together are going 288 00:17:49.160 --> 00:17:54.470 to be what happens to pull David Jolly across the 289 00:17:54.490 --> 00:17:56.829 finish line. I think we have time for one more, 290 00:17:57.250 --> 00:18:01.210 and that would be Texas governor. We picked the Senate 291 00:18:01.250 --> 00:18:06.730 race last week, Tim, but... Greg Abbott is running for 292 00:18:06.769 --> 00:18:10.549 re-election for, I really, is this his fourth term he's 293 00:18:10.589 --> 00:18:11.170 running for? 294 00:18:11.269 --> 00:18:12.390 Yes, yes. 295 00:18:12.609 --> 00:18:19.150 Fourth term. You know, so that's quite a long time. Obviously, 296 00:18:19.190 --> 00:18:21.849 he has a very good personal story. I don't like 297 00:18:21.930 --> 00:18:25.380 it when anybody makes fun of his personal story of 298 00:18:25.539 --> 00:18:28.460 overcoming the fact that he was disabled in that car accident. 299 00:18:28.980 --> 00:18:31.799 You know, he's been called Governor Hot Wheels, and I 300 00:18:31.839 --> 00:18:34.490 think there was a cartoon about where somebody was pushing 301 00:18:34.509 --> 00:18:36.170 him off a cliff in the wheelchair. I thought that 302 00:18:36.190 --> 00:18:41.730 was very distasteful and really stupid politically. The cartoon may 303 00:18:41.789 --> 00:18:46.349 not actually have been promoted by a candidate. But nevertheless, 304 00:18:46.769 --> 00:18:49.430 people seem to be getting some fatigue. And then this 305 00:18:49.490 --> 00:18:52.789 is once again a case where there could be some 306 00:18:54.170 --> 00:18:59.210 just trend of people being tired of Republicans. And Greg 307 00:18:59.309 --> 00:19:03.509 Abbott is facing that. He's facing Gina Hinojosa, a member 308 00:19:03.529 --> 00:19:05.789 of the legislature. And I'll go ahead and go first 309 00:19:05.869 --> 00:19:10.069 on this one, Tim. I actually think that Greg Abbott 310 00:19:10.109 --> 00:19:12.579 is going to pull out a close race. It's going 311 00:19:12.599 --> 00:19:14.900 to be a lot like that Florida race, but in 312 00:19:14.980 --> 00:19:19.859 this case, you know, just different things that Abbott's done 313 00:19:19.900 --> 00:19:22.420 in the past. They'll get him a little bit of goodwill, 314 00:19:22.740 --> 00:19:27.009 and he's going to outperform Ken Paxton in And he'll 315 00:19:27.069 --> 00:19:29.329 barely hang on, but then this might be the thing 316 00:19:29.349 --> 00:19:32.369 that makes him say, let's go out on top and 317 00:19:32.450 --> 00:19:34.400 not run for, I guess, a fifth term. 318 00:19:35.579 --> 00:19:36.579 Yeah. 319 00:19:37.700 --> 00:19:40.579 Here's one for sure that no one expected to be 320 00:19:40.680 -->

00:19:44.869 on the radar on election night, much less close. Greg Abbott, 321 00:19:45.309 --> 00:19:47.829 I've got to, you know, give the man kudos. He's 322 00:19:47.890 --> 00:19:52.339 historically one of the most powerful politicians. politicians Texas has seen, 323 00:19:52.440 --> 00:19:59.960 I suppose. And Gina Hanna-Josa, despite entering, you know, entering 324 00:20:00.009 --> 00:20:05.490 this race, will basically still have not much name recognition. 325 00:20:06.670 --> 00:20:07.710 But as. 326 00:20:10.779 --> 00:20:17.859 The candidate she's benefited from the national backlash against the Republicans, 327 00:20:17.900 --> 00:20:21.789 but at the end, I'm with you, David. I think 328 00:20:21.950 --> 00:20:30.049 because Abbott is still running at 44% of Latino voters, 329 00:20:30.049 --> 00:20:31.710 17% of black voters in the polls. 330 00:20:31.950 --> 00:20:33.799 He's going to win by three to five points. 331 00:20:35.440 --> 00:20:36.940 Yeah, I was wondering if that would be the one 332 00:20:36.960 --> 00:20:39.829 we'd split on. It would be the Texas and the 333 00:20:39.880 --> 00:20:43.450 Florida would decide who got better predictions. I guess it'll 334 00:20:43.470 --> 00:20:46.509 just be all Florida. So I will say this. They 335 00:20:46.609 --> 00:20:50.690 say that the Latino vote is up everywhere, but particularly 336 00:20:50.819 --> 00:20:53.839 in Texas. And it will be interesting to see. I mean, 337 00:20:53.880 --> 00:20:58.349 maybe that's a big decider, and she does really well 338 00:20:58.609 --> 00:21:01.269 and prevails. 339 00:21:01.490 --> 00:21:06.509 If she eats significantly into that 44% that he got 340 00:21:06.589 --> 00:21:09.789 last time out of Hispanics, he could be in some 341 00:21:09.849 --> 00:21:10.490 real trouble. 342 00:21:11.230 --> 00:21:18.720 Yeah, and this is going to be something we'll... Go ahead. Yeah, so... 343 00:21:19.119 --> 00:21:21.380 That's something we'll talk about with our guest in the 344 00:21:21.500 --> 00:21:26.079 next segment with Adam Carlson and Lexia Jane is turnout 345 00:21:26.180 --> 00:21:30.279 because that's a big unknown. The Republicans, they have been 346 00:21:30.319 --> 00:21:32.470 turnout for early vote, but we know they like to 347 00:21:32.549 --> 00:21:35.829 turn out on Election Day. But if they just don't 348 00:21:35.910 --> 00:21:39.089 turn out because they're so unmotivated, that could throw all 349 00:21:39.150 --> 00:21:44.109 these races two or three more points Democratic than we're expecting. No. 350 00:21:48.160 --> 00:21:48.279 No. 351 00:21:49.039 --> 00:21:51.119 Well, that was our first segment. We'll be back in 352 00:21:51.160 --> 00:21:55.559 the next segment. Hi, welcome back to the Kudzu Vine, 353 00:21:55.599 --> 00:21:58.539 and we are so excited to have not one but 354 00:21:58.740 --> 00:22:03.859 two election experts on with us this evening. Lexia Jane 355 00:22:03.920 --> 00:22:07.779 from Split Ticket, who's been with us multiple times. Welcome back, Lexia. 356 00:22:09.500 --> 00:22:10.579 Hey, thanks for having me. 357 00:22:11.539 --> 00:22:14.200 Yes, and for the first time on the show, a 358 00:22:14.240 --> 00:22:16.720 guy that's been making a lot of news in the 359 00:22:17.140 --> 00:22:22.299 election world, information sphere, Adam Carlson. Welcome, Adam. 360 00:22:23.440 --> 00:22:24.279 Thanks so much for having me. 361 00:22:25.140 --> 00:22:25.380 Yes. 362 00:22:25.640 --> 00:22:28.339 Well, Adam, since it's your first time, quickly tell our 363 00:22:28.420 --> 00:22:32.539 listeners about your political background and where you're writing and 364 00:22:32.559 --> 00:22:33.380 all that kind of thing. 365 00:22:34.960 --> 00:22:40.910 Yeah, so I'm a pollster working with Democratic and now 366 00:22:40.930 --> 00:22:44.190 a couple of independent candidates across the country based out 367 00:22:44.210 --> 00:22:48.240 of New York. I've been polling professionally for about 13, 368 00:22:48.240 --> 00:22:52.519 14 years now and started my own firm last summer. 369 00:22:53.160 --> 00:22:55.559 So still fairly new under my own name, but I've 370 00:22:55.579 --> 00:22:59.480 been doing this for a long time, including in the 2016, 371 00:22:59.480 --> 00:23:02.950 the now infamous 2016 cycle when I was at Global 372 00:23:02.970 --> 00:23:03.490 Strategy Group. 373 00:23:04.769 --> 00:23:05.069 Yes. 374 00:23:05.130 --> 00:23:08.609 Well, glad to have you all both on. So really 375 00:23:08.650 --> 00:23:10.049 to both of you all, because you all may both 376 00:23:10.069 --> 00:23:11.690 have a model or it may just be lecture with 377 00:23:11.710 --> 00:23:15.670 split tickets. looking at this model, I think everybody that 378 00:23:15.750 --> 00:23:18.349 looks at this election can tell it's going to be 379 00:23:18.390 --> 00:23:23.269 a Democratic trending year. I'm probably underselling that. But what 380 00:23:23.369 --> 00:23:27.190 seems to be the issue or issues that are really 381 00:23:27.279 --> 00:23:31.960 driving this move towards Democratic candidates and away from Republicans? 382 00:23:34.279 --> 00:23:39.410 You know, David, I've said that I think Republicans can 383 00:23:39.470 --> 00:23:41.890 see a light at the end of the tunnel, finally, 384 00:23:42.019 --> 00:23:44.859 after a very long two years, and that light is 385 00:23:44.900 --> 00:23:49.859 a train. It is very difficult for me to understate 386 00:23:49.920 --> 00:23:54.000 how pissed off the country is of Donald Trump. You 387 00:23:54.039 --> 00:23:56.650 know all the things that they said about Joe Biden, right? And, 388 00:23:56.880 --> 00:24:01.450 you know, a lot of it, to be clear, Biden 389 00:24:01.490 --> 00:24:04.009 kind of brought on himself. But all those things that 390 00:24:04.029 --> 00:24:07.329 they said about Biden and the failed presidency, etc., I 391 00:24:07.369 --> 00:24:09.769 want to remind people that Donald Trump

today is more 392 00:24:09.829 --> 00:24:15.000 unpopular than any president in American history since George Bush. 393 00:24:16.380 --> 00:24:22.880 When you adjust for polarization, this is one of the 394 00:24:22.940 --> 00:24:33.390 most spectacularly unifying presidencies you can find in that everyone 395 00:24:33.430 --> 00:24:35.950 hates him. The Republicans are depressed. They don't want to 396 00:24:35.970 --> 00:24:39.460 turn out. The war has been incredibly unpopular. The tariffs 397 00:24:39.480 --> 00:24:44.539 have been even worse. And somehow, despite all of that, 398 00:24:44.579 --> 00:24:50.849 the president shows absolutely no will to listen to the electorate. 399 00:24:51.190 --> 00:24:54.289 And that's resulted in perhaps the most democratic year that 400 00:24:54.309 --> 00:24:56.809 we've seen in the last 40 years that polls are believed. 401 00:24:59.009 --> 00:25:01.869 Yes. Now, Adam, do you have anything that you're saying? 402 00:25:03.049 --> 00:25:05.869 Yeah, I mean, I've polled in the last year and 403 00:25:05.910 --> 00:25:09.710 a half, even just this year alone, in pretty much 404 00:25:09.750 --> 00:25:11.789 every corner, not in every state, but every corner of 405 00:25:11.809 --> 00:25:17.390 the country. You know, California, to South Dakota, to Georgia itself, 406 00:25:17.470 --> 00:25:21.980 to Maine, Michigan, New York, et cetera. And in every 407 00:25:22.019 --> 00:25:27.500 single survey I've run, and this dates back to 2025, 408 00:25:27.500 --> 00:25:30.420 Not only is affordability and cost of living the number 409 00:25:30.549 --> 00:25:33.250 one issue, it's the number one issue by a huge, 410 00:25:33.670 --> 00:25:36.789 huge margin. I'm seeing like corruption kind of creep up 411 00:25:36.809 --> 00:25:41.079 a little bit as like a pretty consistent second place. Um, 412 00:25:41.279 --> 00:25:43.539 although that's a bit different because I think Republicans also 413 00:25:43.700 --> 00:25:46.559 care about corruption in a different way, but it's so 414 00:25:46.599 --> 00:25:49.660 much so that I'm asking follow-up questions, you know, ahead 415 00:25:49.700 --> 00:25:52.950 of time, people like, what about affordable? Let's talk about it. And, 416 00:25:52.970 --> 00:25:55.829 you know, Trump's main pitch in 2024 was I'm going 417 00:25:55.849 --> 00:25:59.730 to bring down costs. I'm going to make groceries cheaper 418 00:25:59.789 --> 00:26:02.630 on day one. I'm going to disentangle us from foreign conflicts. And, 419 00:26:03.289 --> 00:26:06.710 you know, I think that if there's two easy ways 420 00:26:06.750 --> 00:26:11.529 to piss off your, you know, any even remotely persuadable 421 00:26:11.589 --> 00:26:14.690 voters in this country, people who aren't like super hard 422 00:26:14.730 --> 00:26:19.329 and partisans, it's A, making things more expensive, and B, 423 00:26:19.589 --> 00:26:21.829 it's not being able to trust them. And so he's 424 00:26:21.849 --> 00:26:25.170 doing exactly the opposite in terms of cost of living 425 00:26:25.299 --> 00:26:28.759 and foreign entanglements, which also is feeding back into cost 426 00:26:28.799 --> 00:26:31.140 of living that he said he wasn't going to do. 427 00:26:31.920 --> 00:26:36.630 So I think people feel pretty betrayed, even by conservative Republicans, 428 00:26:37.150 --> 00:26:40.890 even some agri-Republicans feel betrayed. And so the real question is, 429 00:26:41.509 --> 00:26:42.789 you know, is this going to be a bad night 430 00:26:42.809 --> 00:26:46.519 for Republicans or a catastrophic night for Republicans? And what 431 00:26:46.559 --> 00:26:49.960 it comes down to is these Republican voters who are undecided, 432 00:26:49.980 --> 00:26:52.299 who haven't voted yet, who are not showing up in 433 00:26:52.319 --> 00:26:54.140 early voting, are they going to come home to the 434 00:26:54.180 --> 00:26:56.980 party and just be loyal soldiers? Are they going to 435 00:26:57.039 --> 00:26:59.339 stay home? I can't see a lot of them, you know, 436 00:26:59.359 --> 00:27:02.900 switching over to Democrats. differ in a handful of states, but, uh, yeah, 437 00:27:02.940 --> 00:27:05.279 it's come home versus stay home. We'll determine how bad 438 00:27:05.299 --> 00:27:05.839 the bleeding is. 439 00:27:07.500 --> 00:27:11.099 So if I'm hearing y'all correctly, um, pool reflecting pool 440 00:27:11.140 --> 00:27:14.660 cleaning and ballroom building is not moving voters. 441 00:27:16.700 --> 00:27:20.049 That's right. It's not, you know, talking to a democratic 442 00:27:20.089 --> 00:27:24.170 congressional candidate though. And I will tell you that it's 443 00:27:24.210 --> 00:27:27.670 not moving votes on either side. Um, I was talking 444 00:27:27.690 --> 00:27:30.049 to the congressional candidate I was speaking to, you know, 445 00:27:30.089 --> 00:27:32.910 she's running in a battleground race. Um, one of the 446 00:27:32.970 --> 00:27:35.930 most hotly contested races in the country and asked her, 447 00:27:35.950 --> 00:27:38.670 you know, what are you seeing with respect to the 448 00:27:38.710 --> 00:27:41.410 ballroom with respect to anything like that? She's like, no 449 00:27:41.509 --> 00:27:42.970 one talks to me about that. The only people that 450 00:27:43.009 --> 00:27:46.269 talk to me about that are Democrats mad about everything 451 00:27:46.289 --> 00:27:48.730 that Trump is doing. I think Democrats made the wise 452 00:27:48.809 --> 00:27:55.859 decision this time to not fight. on this type of issue. Instead, 453 00:27:56.000 --> 00:27:58.769 you know, the calculus from the Democratic Party has been 454 00:27:58.789 --> 00:28:03.250 Trump's corruption is in full view. Everyone's seeing it. You 455 00:28:03.289 --> 00:28:04.710 can make your own decisions on that. 456 00:28:05.009 --> 00:28:05.430 We're going to. 457 00:28:05.430 --> 00:28:07.430 Message on the economy. We're going to message on the 458 00:28:07.470 --> 00:28:10.150

affordability angle. And when I did my latest poll, I 459 00:28:10.170 --> 00:28:12.849 was struck to see that when I looked at the 460 00:28:12.890 --> 00:28:16.910 word clouds for both the Democrats and the Republicans, everything 461 00:28:16.930 --> 00:28:18.950 in the Democratic cloud was like, Who do you think 462 00:28:18.990 --> 00:28:22.809 the democratic party fights for working people, people, um, you know, 463 00:28:23.839 --> 00:28:26.980 working class people, et cetera, and everything in the Republican 464 00:28:27.019 --> 00:28:31.740 crowd is rich people, billionaires, um, the elites. There was 465 00:28:31.819 --> 00:28:34.359 even a mention of pedophiles for the SD Epstein thing, 466 00:28:34.480 --> 00:28:37.740 but like, that's the type of election that when it happens, 467 00:28:38.859 --> 00:28:42.619 it's really bad news for you because look, everyone believes 468 00:28:42.680 --> 00:28:44.960 politicians are corrupt. And if you try to fight a 469 00:28:44.980 --> 00:28:48.190 war on corruption, It's a very dangerous and difficult war 470 00:28:48.210 --> 00:28:49.930 to fight, but if you fight a war on cost 471 00:28:49.990 --> 00:28:51.769 of living, it's very easy to just point to the 472 00:28:51.809 --> 00:28:55.329 gas prices, point to groceries, and everyone's like, well, yeah, 473 00:28:55.349 --> 00:28:57.539 I can see everything's more expensive, and they hate it. 474 00:28:58.440 --> 00:28:59.759 And that's why Democrats are doing better. 475 00:28:59.779 --> 00:29:06.059 Yeah, sounds like they're listing smart pollsters like y'all. Well, 476 00:29:06.079 --> 00:29:08.119 let me ask y'all both– go ahead if you want 477 00:29:08.140 --> 00:29:08.660 to ask something. 478 00:29:08.680 --> 00:29:09.009 Go ahead. 479 00:29:09.880 --> 00:29:11.700 I was going to say, it's just, you know, things 480 00:29:11.720 --> 00:29:14.160 you can see with your own eyes are very difficult 481 00:29:14.259 --> 00:29:16.319 to convince people that they're not seeing with their own eyes, 482 00:29:16.359 --> 00:29:18.880 particularly when it comes to their pocketbook. So, you know, 483 00:29:18.900 --> 00:29:20.819 you go to the gas pump, you know, let's say 484 00:29:20.859 --> 00:29:24.210 gas is, you know, 40 cents cheaper than it was 485 00:29:24.349 --> 00:29:26.930 a week or two ago. That's not going to change 486 00:29:26.950 --> 00:29:29.990 your vote to vote for Trump. I mean, you're still 487 00:29:30.029 --> 00:29:32.390 kind of taking that into its totality of, you know, 488 00:29:32.450 --> 00:29:34.829 under Trump, my gas prices have gone up and it's 489 00:29:35.069 --> 00:29:37.369 easy to connect the dots with the Iran war. 490 00:29:37.410 --> 00:29:37.490 Yes. 491 00:29:40.200 --> 00:29:41.859 And just so many things. We could have a whole 492 00:29:42.180 --> 00:29:45.799 series on, you know, cost of living. Well, let me 493 00:29:45.859 --> 00:29:50.210 ask y'all another maybe more hardcore political question, and it 494 00:29:50.269 --> 00:29:54.640 looks like the Democrats may retake the Senate, which I 495 00:29:54.660 --> 00:29:57.880 don't think we thought maybe even, say, six months ago. 496 00:29:58.349 --> 00:30:01.109 But not, you know, will they retake the Senate, but 497 00:30:01.630 --> 00:30:03.609 to both of y'all, because y'all may have different answers, 498 00:30:04.029 --> 00:30:05.950 what do y'all think is going to be the closest 499 00:30:06.730 --> 00:30:09.539 Senate race? You know, before we might have thought John 500 00:30:09.619 --> 00:30:13.880 Ossoff or Roy Cooper, but now it looks like the 501 00:30:13.940 --> 00:30:17.799 map shifted so much that it's just totally the races. 502 00:30:17.740 --> 00:30:20.960 Are on the board. Closest Senate race? Iowa. 503 00:30:23.000 --> 00:30:23.720 Okay. Iowa. 504 00:30:24.059 --> 00:30:26.720 I wouldn't even blink. I'd tell you Iowa. Closest race 505 00:30:26.759 --> 00:30:28.720 by far. Okay. 506 00:30:28.799 --> 00:30:29.240 And Adam? 507 00:30:29.319 --> 00:30:32.500 I think Iowa or Kansas. Just to be interesting, I'll 508 00:30:32.519 --> 00:30:33.000 say Kansas. 509 00:30:34.059 --> 00:30:36.279 You know, it's funny that Adam says this because I 510 00:30:36.299 --> 00:30:38.960 got to strongly disagree on the Kansas part. I think 511 00:30:39.539 --> 00:30:42.279 if the polls are real, there's two universes for me, right? Like, 512 00:30:42.759 --> 00:30:45.000 the polls are real in Kansas, in which case Adam 513 00:30:45.039 --> 00:30:48.200 Hamilton wins by four. Or the polls are not real 514 00:30:48.339 --> 00:30:51.180 and Adam Hamilton loses by two or three. Like, I think. 515 00:30:52.690 --> 00:30:54.630 This is one of those rare times and I'm like, look, 516 00:30:54.930 --> 00:30:56.549 the polls are telling a story. We don't know if 517 00:30:56.609 --> 00:30:59.650 it's the right story. In Iowa, the polls are actually 518 00:30:59.690 --> 00:31:01.670 telling the same story the fundamentals are, which is that 519 00:31:01.710 --> 00:31:03.940 it's a very close race. Our modeled margin in Iowa 520 00:31:04.079 --> 00:31:07.839 is Hinson winning by 0.2 percentage points, which would mark 521 00:31:07.859 --> 00:31:11.119 the closest Iowa Senate election, I think, in this century. 522 00:31:12.380 --> 00:31:15.259 But in Kansas, like, Adam Hamilton leads every poll. The 523 00:31:15.279 --> 00:31:16.980 only reason that our model is, like, thinking it's a 524 00:31:17.000 --> 00:31:19.460 toss-up is because it thinks the fundamentals of the state 525 00:31:19.500 --> 00:31:21.720 are a little bit red. But, like, you know, the 526 00:31:21.779 --> 00:31:25.869 model doesn't really have access to Roger Marshall's bankruptcy filings 527 00:31:25.920 --> 00:31:26.950 against his patients. 528 00:31:29.750 --> 00:31:31.230 Yeah, you kind of brought up a good point. I 529 00:31:31.289 --> 00:31:35.009 wonder if it is because it appears that Adam Hamilton 530 00:31:35.369 -->

00:31:38.930 and Josh Turek are both really good candidates. Actually, Henson 531 00:31:38.990 --> 00:31:43.529 is not a bad candidate, but yet Roger Marshall has 532 00:31:43.710 --> 00:31:46.079 just made the news for all the wrong reasons. And 533 00:31:46.440 --> 00:31:49.099 could that be the reason that, you know, I was 534 00:31:49.119 --> 00:31:52.430 going to be the closer race just because Ashley Henson 535 00:31:52.509 --> 00:31:56.829 hadn't been, you know, pissing off her constituents like Roger Marshall. 536 00:31:59.579 --> 00:32:02.200 Yeah, she's, you know, I think that if Joni Ernst 537 00:32:02.559 --> 00:32:05.500 was running for reelection in Iowa, I think Josh Chirik 538 00:32:05.519 --> 00:32:07.759 would be the prohibitive favorite to win. She was pretty 539 00:32:07.779 --> 00:32:11.789 unpopular and a variety of reasons, I think, would be 540 00:32:11.829 --> 00:32:13.789 easier to tie to Trump. Henson has a history of 541 00:32:13.890 --> 00:32:17.819 overperforming Trump, although I think it's a bit overstated, um, 542 00:32:17.859 --> 00:32:21.359 to talk a bit more about that with his, uh, 543 00:32:21.380 --> 00:32:25.240 wins about replacement score. But, um, yeah, it's, it's, it's 544 00:32:25.279 --> 00:32:28.079 interesting because Kansas is just very, you know, as we 545 00:32:28.099 --> 00:32:29.940 saw with the Washington post poll that came out the 546 00:32:29.960 --> 00:32:32.009 other day, it's a bit tricky to poll, although I've 547 00:32:32.049 --> 00:32:33.710 had a bunch of other pollsters on both sides of 548 00:32:33.730 --> 00:32:37.630 the aisle who had not had the same major response 549 00:32:37.650 --> 00:32:39.390 rate issues that the Washington post had. 550 00:32:39.410 --> 00:32:42.529 Um, so it's, it's, It's. 551 00:32:42.470 --> 00:32:45.660 Swimming further upstream, I think, in Kansas, but only by 552 00:32:45.759 --> 00:32:48.640 three points. It went for Trump by 16 points in 553 00:32:48.640 --> 00:32:52.180 2024 versus 13 for Iowa. I just think that there's 554 00:32:52.299 --> 00:32:57.240 a broader mental, a larger mental hurdle for people to 555 00:32:57.299 --> 00:32:59.980 get to because a Democrat hasn't won the Senate race 556 00:33:00.200 --> 00:33:05.869 in Kansas since 1932. But I think that Hamilton, you know. 557 00:33:05.930 --> 00:33:06.869 He needs to. 558 00:33:08.250 --> 00:33:10.299 dominate with the suburbs and the few kind of urban 559 00:33:10.319 --> 00:33:12.500 areas in the state, which he's primed to do, but 560 00:33:12.539 --> 00:33:15.619 it all comes down to rural turnout. And in my 561 00:33:15.660 --> 00:33:20.799 own polling, I've had some difficulty reaching rural kind of 562 00:33:20.839 --> 00:33:22.880 MAGA voters. So I think there's a chance that the 563 00:33:22.920 --> 00:33:26.500 polling is missing them a little bit in Kansas, although 564 00:33:26.539 --> 00:33:29.119 Kansas has kind of a rich history of having a 565 00:33:29.180 --> 00:33:31.309 strong moderate stream within the party. 566 00:33:31.990 --> 00:33:32.450 So we'll see. 567 00:33:32.650 --> 00:33:35.119 I think it'd be really close. I wouldn't be shocked 568 00:33:35.319 --> 00:33:37.480 if Iowa is the closest race in the country, or 569 00:33:37.500 --> 00:33:40.660 even Texas. But we'll have a pretty good idea in 570 00:33:40.700 --> 00:33:41.420 about 48 hours. 571 00:33:42.460 --> 00:33:45.480 Yeah, definitely fascinating. Well, I'm going to pass it to 572 00:33:45.539 --> 00:33:47.599 Tim Shiflett for more questions. Tim? 573 00:33:48.960 --> 00:33:52.180 Good evening, gentlemen. And I would like to start with 574 00:33:52.240 --> 00:33:55.650 a question for you, Adam, since you wrote about this 575 00:33:55.789 --> 00:33:58.549 just a few hours ago on social media. 576 00:34:00.809 --> 00:34:04.410 I was wondering... How do you feel Michigan. 577 00:34:03.930 --> 00:34:08.530 Voters will react to what happened there today with Haley Stevens? 578 00:34:08.610 --> 00:34:10.210 Will that affect the race at all? 579 00:34:12.849 --> 00:34:15.489 It's hard to say. I think that this is probably 580 00:34:15.510 --> 00:34:18.849 going to be a bigger issue nationally and on social 581 00:34:18.869 --> 00:34:21.309 media than it will be in Michigan. Most local reporting, 582 00:34:21.409 --> 00:34:23.670 at least up until this morning when Haley Stevens endorsed 583 00:34:23.989 --> 00:34:28.909 Mike Rogers, people hadn't heard about Haley Stevens' fiance, Jason Turkish, 584 00:34:28.969 --> 00:34:32.449 and uh, the back and forth and Hassan Piker, most 585 00:34:32.469 --> 00:34:34.809 voters still don't know who Hassan Piker is. Uh, again, 586 00:34:34.829 --> 00:34:38.409 he gets much more, uh, airplay in those venues and, 587 00:34:38.920 --> 00:34:39.760 and before. 588 00:34:39.539 --> 00:34:41.400 I, so there's two schools of thought, right? 589 00:34:41.519 --> 00:34:45.679 Is one Haley Stevens who came within less than a 590 00:34:45.739 --> 00:34:48.780 point of winning the nomination was very popular from the party, uh, 591 00:34:49.739 --> 00:34:52.159 you know, up until this week, uh, in the Michigan 592 00:34:52.179 --> 00:34:55.300 democratic party, um, on a ton of votes and a 593 00:34:55.420 --> 00:34:57.139 lot of parts of state where Abdul needs to do 594 00:34:57.179 --> 00:34:59.869 really well, uh, The one school of thought is that 595 00:34:59.909 --> 00:35:04.690 that gives the undecided voters a permission structure to either 596 00:35:04.929 --> 00:35:07.670 blank the Senate ballot or vote for Mike Rogers. It's like, okay, 597 00:35:08.030 --> 00:35:11.710 if Kelly Stevens can't stomach it, I can't stomach it either. However, 598 00:35:12.110 --> 00:35:14.349 what we've seen in the last, however, what we've seen 599 00:35:14.369 --> 00:35:15.989 in the last few hours and not just, you know, 600 00:35:16.030 --> 00:35:19.730 forget social media reaction, forget media reaction, just look at,

601 00:35:19.789 --> 00:35:22.710 you know, what's happening like on the ground in Michigan 602 00:35:22.909 --> 00:35:26.250 since then. You have a lot of undecided voters do take, 603 00:35:26.909 --> 00:35:29.710 used from local officials that they like, and from everyone 604 00:35:29.730 --> 00:35:33.829 from Jennifer Granholm, former governor and Obama administration official, to 605 00:35:33.929 --> 00:35:39.519 Kristen McDonald-Rivett, who is kind of a more moderate representative, 606 00:35:39.860 --> 00:35:43.920 represented the only Trump-won Democratic district in the state, the 607 00:35:43.940 --> 00:35:47.119 state party chair, everybody in the national party and the 608 00:35:47.159 --> 00:35:52.719 state party just fully condemning Haley Stevens. Abdul's raised a 609 00:35:52.900 --> 00:35:55.230 ton of money in the last couple hours. I think 610 00:35:55.349 --> 00:35:57.349 it's the highest clip since he won the nomination. So 611 00:35:58.110 --> 00:36:01.090 the base is responding. It's more like, is that increasing 612 00:36:01.150 --> 00:36:04.429 enthusiasm among people that are already voting for him? And 613 00:36:04.489 --> 00:36:06.469 so they're just kind of like more motivated to get out? 614 00:36:07.650 --> 00:36:09.820 Or is it just kind of like a pep rally 615 00:36:09.920 --> 00:36:12.360 and it's not actually changing any minds? And people who are... 616 00:36:12.969 --> 00:36:15.269 going to vote for Rogers because of this, you know, are, are, 617 00:36:15.349 --> 00:36:17.510 are not quite as seen. So I think it remains, 618 00:36:17.769 --> 00:36:19.789 my guess is that it doesn't really have a major 619 00:36:19.849 --> 00:36:23.789 effect or it slightly helps Abdul, but I'm not expecting 620 00:36:23.809 --> 00:36:26.409 this race to be like within a couple of points. Anyway, 621 00:36:26.489 --> 00:36:28.929 I think Abdul is probably favored by at least four 622 00:36:28.949 --> 00:36:31.829 to five points, if not more, we should be getting 623 00:36:31.849 --> 00:36:33.590 a New York times. He had a poll that about this, 624 00:36:33.989 --> 00:36:38.480 I believe tonight offer a bit more All that was 625 00:36:38.559 --> 00:36:41.679 obviously done before the Steven saga, but I know Laksh 626 00:36:41.699 --> 00:36:43.010 has a bit of a different opinion, so I'll pass 627 00:36:43.050 --> 00:36:45.590 to him. 628 00:36:48.210 --> 00:36:49.510 Can I add one thing on this? 629 00:36:50.570 --> 00:36:51.210 Yes, please. 630 00:36:52.070 --> 00:36:57.230 I think anyone saying that it won't hurt Abdul El-Sayed is, frankly, 631 00:36:57.349 --> 00:37:00.650 I think just... And I say this with the greatest 632 00:37:00.750 --> 00:37:02.829 love and respect for Adam, who I have known for 633 00:37:02.889 --> 00:37:05.360 many years and I consider a good friend... I think 634 00:37:05.400 --> 00:37:10.260 anyone thinking that this won't hurt Abdul El-Sayed is living 635 00:37:10.280 --> 00:37:12.340 in a bit of a

wishland. And the reason I 636 00:37:12.380 --> 00:37:15.519 say that is because Haley Stevens came within 1% of wings. 637 00:37:15.559 --> 00:37:19.590 She has deep support bases. And what she's vocalizing is 638 00:37:20.530 --> 00:37:24.170 really just a fear that a lot of the center 639 00:37:24.250 --> 00:37:29.030 fringe of the party has of El-Sayed. And Stevens gives 640 00:37:29.050 --> 00:37:32.329 them essentially a permission structure to break rank and vote 641 00:37:32.369 --> 00:37:35.400 against him. up until today, I had El Sayed winning 642 00:37:35.440 --> 00:37:37.219 by four. If you have to force me to guess, 643 00:37:37.340 --> 00:37:39.909 I think he still wins by one. I just think that, 644 00:37:39.929 --> 00:37:43.949 you know, my official role is nonpartisan, but if I 645 00:37:43.989 --> 00:37:49.369 may say something as a Democrat, is that okay? I think, 646 00:37:50.610 --> 00:37:54.639 I think it, I think it's a disgrace to, because 647 00:37:55.010 --> 00:37:57.460 the whole point of a primary within a party is 648 00:37:57.480 --> 00:37:59.820 that when you, when you fight the battle of And 649 00:37:59.840 --> 00:38:03.179 you commit to supporting the nominee unless there's something like 650 00:38:03.599 --> 00:38:06.460 major breaking that comes out. There's nothing here that's happened, 651 00:38:06.480 --> 00:38:10.420 and there's no argument you can make for Stevens advancing 652 00:38:10.469 --> 00:38:13.269 the policies that she supposedly cares about by breaking rank 653 00:38:13.469 --> 00:38:16.690 and endorsing Mike Rogers. So to me, it will hurt him. 654 00:38:16.909 --> 00:38:19.269 It will hurt Abdul El-Sayed. The question is, does it 655 00:38:19.289 --> 00:38:21.409 hurt him enough to lose? I don't think so, but 656 00:38:21.429 --> 00:38:26.019 I've got to say I'm not sure about it. Okay. Now, 657 00:38:26.079 --> 00:38:27.579 I want to get three points. 658 00:38:31.989 --> 00:38:34.230 I think he dropped three points from what you expected 659 00:38:34.269 --> 00:38:35.369 from plus four to plus one. 660 00:38:36.409 --> 00:38:36.690 Yes. 661 00:38:39.329 --> 00:38:43.429 Okay. Lockshin, I want to ask you a question now. 662 00:38:44.489 --> 00:38:53.889 There was a lot of mid-decade redistricting done because of 663 00:38:53.909 --> 00:38:59.219 Donald Trump and And to U.S. House districts last year 664 00:38:59.239 --> 00:39:02.019 and this year, it was unprecedented. We've never seen anything 665 00:39:02.159 --> 00:39:05.599 like it. Didn't all of that make your. 666 00:39:05.519 --> 00:39:08.960 Job of building models a lot tougher? 667 00:39:09.039 --> 00:39:09.579 How were you. 668 00:39:09.579 --> 00:39:13.369 Able to handle that? Actually, it didn't make it tougher. 669 00:39:13.409 --> 00:39:15.269 So the funny thing is, right, the model looks at 670 00:39:15.289 --> 00:39:17.409 the partisan lead. It doesn't look at the fact that 671 00:39:17.429 --> 00:39:20.610 the district's redrawn. We just know what the new partisanship 672 00:39:20.630 --> 00:39:21.289 of the district is. 673 00:39:21.309 --> 00:39:22.690 And look, voters. 674 00:39:23.539 --> 00:39:27.949 The average person does not change their vote solely based 675 00:39:28.030 --> 00:39:29.969 on whether or not they live in a competitive environment. 676 00:39:30.300 --> 00:39:36.360 district or a gerrymandered one, right? Voter behavior is voter behavior. 677 00:39:36.699 --> 00:39:39.360 If you're expecting a swing of like 15 points to 678 00:39:39.389 --> 00:39:42.750 the left in a swing district, you would expect something 679 00:39:43.130 --> 00:39:48.050 similar in what's suddenly been gerrymandered out. Now, the difference, 680 00:39:48.250 --> 00:39:51.489 of course, is this. And the gerrymandered seats, a lot 681 00:39:51.510 --> 00:39:57.119 of the nominees don't have competitive races, and so therefore 682 00:39:57.159 --> 00:39:59.920 they don't fundraise very much. And so that could throw 683 00:39:59.980 --> 00:40:02.699 a wrench into like an upset in North Carolina, for example. 684 00:40:02.760 --> 00:40:04.590 I could totally see that if the early voting is 685 00:40:04.610 --> 00:40:07.610 that bad for them, something springs out of the ordinary 686 00:40:07.670 --> 00:40:11.530 because no one shows up and suddenly an R plus 687 00:40:11.530 --> 00:40:14.909 25 seat that's had red areas taken out to give 688 00:40:14.969 --> 00:40:17.780 to other blue seats so that they become redder. Suddenly 689 00:40:17.800 --> 00:40:21.610 an R-plus-25 seat becomes an R-plus-19 seat. That R-plus-19 seat 690 00:40:21.650 --> 00:40:25.489 then flips in a midterm by just enough. That's possible. 691 00:40:25.989 --> 00:40:28.130 But this is the type of stuff the model is 692 00:40:28.150 --> 00:40:30.510 built for. This is exactly the type of thing the 693 00:40:30.570 --> 00:40:34.550 model specializes in. So to me, that wasn't as big 694 00:40:34.570 --> 00:40:36.949 of a concern. But I will say Republicans should be 695 00:40:36.989 --> 00:40:40.230 surprised that they're going to get zero seats out of 696 00:40:40.289 --> 00:40:42.179 redistricting at this rate. It's pretty funny. 697 00:40:43.860 --> 00:40:49.239 They're great. So I look at your model, Lakshya, the 698 00:40:49.300 --> 00:40:53.800 Alaska House race, the at-large race up there, and I 699 00:40:53.840 --> 00:40:57.820 see Nick Begich is in decent shape to win. Now, 700 00:40:57.909 --> 00:41:01.789 why is he seemingly doing so well in an otherwise 701 00:41:01.909 --> 00:41:05.510 toxic atmosphere for the Republicans nationwide? 702 00:41:06.570 --> 00:41:11.190 Because there's a spoiler Democrat on the ballot. Hafner is 703 00:41:11.250 --> 00:41:16.579 on the ballot. And that makes the job of the 704 00:41:17.260 --> 00:41:20.440 Democrats much harder because Bill Hill is not a Democrat. 705 00:41:20.460 --> 00:41:23.500 He listed as an independent. So there are enough voters 706

00:41:23.519 --> 00:41:28.400 that could theoretically break for the Democrat and deny Bill 707 00:41:28.440 --> 00:41:31.360 Hill the shot at victory that he may have had 708 00:41:31.409 --> 00:41:35.090 in a one-on-one. And this is the inverse of the 709 00:41:35.139 --> 00:41:38.809 Alaska gubernatorial effect where Jonathan Christ Tompkins is the odds-on 710 00:41:38.849 --> 00:41:43.280 favorite to become the next governor because– The three Republicans 711 00:41:43.340 --> 00:41:47.059 running are all splitting the vote remarkably efficiently, meaning that 712 00:41:47.099 --> 00:41:50.739 he's almost certain to win that race. But that's because 713 00:41:50.800 --> 00:41:53.309 the Republican vote is splintered among three candidates, and they 714 00:41:53.329 --> 00:41:56.730 don't all rank each other. Now, in this House race, 715 00:41:57.809 --> 00:42:01.469 it's the opposite story for Democrats, right? There is a 716 00:42:01.510 --> 00:42:08.079 Democrat running, and there is an independent running. So that's 717 00:42:08.119 --> 00:42:08.719 kind of the story. 718 00:42:10.059 --> 00:42:13.840 All right. Now, my final question, and I want to 719 00:42:13.900 --> 00:42:19.530 send it up to you, Adam. On Tuesday, I'm going 720 00:42:19.570 --> 00:42:23.250 to be tuning in, and I'm going to be looking 721 00:42:23.769 --> 00:42:28.150 for signs of what may be about. 722 00:42:27.909 --> 00:42:30.250 To occur in the country. And I think I'm going. 723 00:42:30.110 --> 00:42:34.469 To be watching for early results up in Kentucky's 6th 724 00:42:34.590 --> 00:42:41.289 Congressional District race. That's Zach Dembo's race. And if they 725 00:42:41.329 --> 00:42:44.610 call that race pretty early for Zach Dembo, I'm going 726 00:42:44.650 --> 00:42:50.650 to say that's a possible blue wave forming. And what 727 00:42:50.690 --> 00:42:54.969 I want to ask you, is there a particular race 728 00:42:56.269 --> 00:43:00.750 or trend that you will be looking for early. 729 00:43:01.869 --> 00:43:04.840 For a sign of how things are going to go 730 00:43:05.090 --> 00:43:05.989 throughout the night? 731 00:43:07.679 --> 00:43:09.460 That's a great question. I think, you know, in the 732 00:43:09.500 --> 00:43:11.559 six o'clock, to your point, in the six o'clock hour 733 00:43:11.579 --> 00:43:15.360 Eastern time, I'm looking at three races in particular. So 734 00:43:15.440 --> 00:43:19.650 Kentucky six, that's Zach Dumbo versus Ralph Alvarado. That's a 735 00:43:19.760 --> 00:43:22.230 Trump plus 15 seat. It's rated as a toss up 736 00:43:22.289 --> 00:43:27.250 by the kind of expert raters. And there's also Indiana five. 737 00:43:27.469 --> 00:43:29.630 So that's the Democrats when they're on pace to take 738 00:43:29.670 --> 00:43:33.800 back the House in a reasonably large way of. Um, although, 739 00:43:33.820 --> 00:43:36.659 you know, I wouldn't over-index, I hadn't always been representative 740 00:43:36.719 --> 00:43:38.639 of the rest

of the country. And then midterms, you 741 00:43:38.659 --> 00:43:41.840 get kind of weird state by state or regional pattern. So, 742 00:43:41.940 --> 00:43:45.820 you know, but it's a good indicator. Indiana's fifth congressional district, 743 00:43:45.840 --> 00:43:48.590 which is, um, Oh, closed at the same time as 744 00:43:48.619 --> 00:43:53.130 victorious bars versus JD Ford. It's if Democrats are close 745 00:43:53.150 --> 00:43:54.469 to winning that or winning that, it's kind of like 746 00:43:54.510 --> 00:43:58.039 a likely are kind of race. Then we're in blue 747 00:43:58.079 --> 00:44:01.289 wave or blue tsunami territory potentially. So those are the 748 00:44:01.329 --> 00:44:03.610 two I'm watching. And then there's also the Indiana Secretary 749 00:44:03.630 --> 00:44:07.110 of State's race where Bo Bai is now expected to win. 750 00:44:08.230 --> 00:44:10.590 But if Democrats aren't winning that race, it could be 751 00:44:10.630 --> 00:44:12.469 local factors or it could be in for a disappointment. 752 00:44:13.050 --> 00:44:17.960 But to me, the most clear ladder of expectations is 753 00:44:18.019 --> 00:44:21.949 in Virginia. So, you know, Democrats are going to fairly 754 00:44:22.010 --> 00:44:25.630 easily win the 7th District. That's Eugene Vindman. That's kind 755 00:44:25.650 --> 00:44:27.230 of off the board at this point. But to me, 756 00:44:27.250 --> 00:44:30.570 there's three races that I'm watching. Virginia's 2nd District, which 757 00:44:30.650 --> 00:44:34.079 is Jen Kiggins running against Elaine Luria, a former congresswoman. 758 00:44:34.099 --> 00:44:38.059 That's kind of like basically a tie in 2024. Democrats 759 00:44:38.079 --> 00:44:40.260 should win that by a fairly big margin. That's in 760 00:44:40.300 --> 00:44:44.559 the Hampton Roads area. The next rung, so that's like 761 00:44:44.639 --> 00:44:46.590 a good night for Democrats, probably take back the House, 762 00:44:46.840 --> 00:44:49.800 you know, But maybe not, and do it enthusiastically if 763 00:44:49.820 --> 00:44:52.780 that's all they win. The next rung is Virginia's first district, 764 00:44:53.179 --> 00:44:56.420 which is Rob Whitman versus Shannon Taylor, a bit closer 765 00:44:56.440 --> 00:44:59.099 to the center north of the state. That was a 766 00:44:59.119 --> 00:45:01.179 Trump plus five district. That's rated as a toss-up. I 767 00:45:01.179 --> 00:45:03.489 put that in the same category as Kentucky six. So 768 00:45:03.510 --> 00:45:06.369 they win that, win for a very good night and 769 00:45:06.389 --> 00:45:10.159 a comfortable majority. Democrats are winning the fifth district, which 770 00:45:10.219 --> 00:45:13.099 is John McGuire against Tom Perriello. That's a Trump plus 771 00:45:13.099 --> 00:45:16.739 12 district. The Republicans are expected to win. Then we're 772 00:45:16.780 --> 00:45:19.699 in blue wave territory. So to me, that's the clearest 773 00:45:19.880 --> 00:45:25.510 example of good, great, terrific. Or if I lose all 774 00:45:25.530 --> 00:45:27.269 three of them, then a bad night. So I'm looking 775 00:45:27.309 --> 00:45:29.909 mostly at Indiana, Kentucky, and Virginia in the first hour. 776 00:45:29.929 --> 00:45:31.710 All right. 777 00:45:32.389 --> 00:45:36.130 Gentlemen, I thank you for being with us tonight, and 778 00:45:36.289 --> 00:45:38.969 I'm going to send it back to David to end 779 00:45:39.010 --> 00:45:39.909 the segment. David? 780 00:45:40.719 --> 00:45:42.619 Yes, well, we're right up against it, but I want 781 00:45:42.639 --> 00:45:46.179 to ask a one-question lightning round about a state that's 782 00:45:46.219 --> 00:45:49.340 just finally getting some attention, and that's the state of Mississippi. 783 00:45:49.900 --> 00:45:51.360 So each of y'all, if you want to tell me, 784 00:45:51.679 --> 00:45:55.559 will Mississippi be getting a new senator or get a 785 00:45:55.599 --> 00:45:57.800 new protein on Tuesday night? 786 00:45:59.059 --> 00:46:02.139 They're going to be getting the same. Cindy Hyde-Smith, I 787 00:46:02.159 --> 00:46:04.800 will say, if Scott Cologne wins, it would mark the 788 00:46:04.860 --> 00:46:10.889 greatest senatorial upset in modern American history other than Doug 789 00:46:11.010 --> 00:46:14.869 Jones winning against Roy Moore. That is how monumental a 790 00:46:14.909 --> 00:46:17.369 Democratic victory would be in Mississippi. It is so hard 791 00:46:17.389 --> 00:46:19.800 for me to overstate how difficult of a task Scott 792 00:46:19.820 --> 00:46:24.440 Cologne faces. If he wins, it would be nothing short 793 00:46:24.480 --> 00:46:26.019 of a remarkable achievement. 794 00:46:27.519 --> 00:46:27.679 Yes. 795 00:46:28.329 --> 00:46:31.250 And Adam, protein or senator? 796 00:46:32.349 --> 00:46:36.769 Protein, unfortunately, for Democrats like myself. I think that it 797 00:46:36.809 --> 00:46:40.489 will be much closer than anyone would have anticipated a 798 00:46:40.510 --> 00:46:43.099 couple months ago, single-digit race, maybe even within five points. 799 00:46:43.679 --> 00:46:46.199 But it's such a hard, to Asha's point, it's such 800 00:46:46.219 --> 00:46:49.570 a tough hill to climb with racial polarization. You'd need 801 00:46:49.610 --> 00:46:55.369 like a unprecedented rural collapse in turnout on Tuesday. And again, 802 00:46:55.389 --> 00:46:58.250 Mississippi is mostly voting on Election Day. So we don't 803 00:46:58.269 --> 00:47:01.010 have any kind of early voting indicators. So, you know, 804 00:47:01.050 --> 00:47:04.760 it's possible. But we're looking at states like Louisiana and 805 00:47:04.780 --> 00:47:08.079 South Carolina and, you know, a few other states as 806 00:47:08.119 --> 00:47:10.079 kind of proxies for it right now. But no, if 807 00:47:10.119 --> 00:47:12.900 I had to pick today, Hyde-Smith wins another term. 808 00:47:13.949 --> 00:47:17.969 I had to throw that in. Well, now, Lexia, from 809 00:47:18.050 --> 00:47:21.710 Split

Ticket, but Split Ticket's gotten some changes, although we 810 00:47:21.769 --> 00:47:23.969 had you on in the summer when it happened. Tell 811 00:47:24.050 --> 00:47:27.730 our listeners where they can read your forecast, the final poll, 812 00:47:28.030 --> 00:47:30.269 and then if, Adam, you want to tell again where 813 00:47:30.329 --> 00:47:31.659 folks can read your writings. 814 00:47:32.469 --> 00:47:35.480 Yeah, you can find us at theargumentmag.com. We'd love to 815 00:47:35.519 --> 00:47:38.579 see you. We're hosting a live stream with me, Nate Silver, 816 00:47:38.739 --> 00:47:41.739 Gail Andruk, and Matt Iglesias on election night. We would 817 00:47:41.860 --> 00:47:44.590 absolutely love for you all to join us. argument, the 818 00:47:44.650 --> 00:47:45.800 argument mag.com. 819 00:47:47.570 --> 00:47:47.800 Yes. 820 00:47:49.239 --> 00:47:52.800 And, uh, in general, um, who knows, maybe I'll start 821 00:47:52.820 --> 00:47:54.900 some sort of join the masses and get a sub 822 00:47:54.920 --> 00:47:57.019 stack after the election. But for now, just on Twitter, 823 00:47:57.460 --> 00:48:01.039 just look for my name, Adam Carlson, the C like Tucker, unfortunately, um, 824 00:48:01.659 --> 00:48:04.500 I'll be doing a lot more polling, um, in the 825 00:48:04.519 --> 00:48:08.059 coming months, uh, particularly, uh, some interesting things lined up 826 00:48:08.099 --> 00:48:13.949 for the off year. I will be on zinus-research.com. 827 00:48:13.989 --> 00:48:15.570 You can reach me there. 828 00:48:16.369 --> 00:48:18.369 And I will be, on election night, I will be 829 00:48:18.489 --> 00:48:21.210 in the Fox 5 studio, which is a local New 830 00:48:21.230 --> 00:48:24.550 York City studio, mostly talking about New York elections. But 831 00:48:25.349 --> 00:48:29.369 in between segments, I will be furiously tweeting and calling 832 00:48:29.409 --> 00:48:31.940 races and, you know, lots of my fun stuff. So 833 00:48:31.980 --> 00:48:33.860 feel free to set your notifications on. 834 00:48:35.579 --> 00:48:35.920 All right. 835 00:48:35.960 --> 00:48:38.719 We're so glad you could join us on our pre-election. 836 00:48:39.090 --> 00:48:41.699 election show here tonight on the Kudzu Vine. And for 837 00:48:41.739 --> 00:48:45.119 our Georgia Now listeners, that's it for this show, which 838 00:48:45.159 --> 00:48:48.460 will air right the day before the election on Monday. 839 00:48:48.579 --> 00:48:50.239 And then Tim and I will come back on the 840 00:48:50.400 --> 00:48:57.050 other side, internet only, with some more predictions. All right, 841 00:48:57.090 --> 00:49:01.429 welcome back in our third podcast-only segment. Thank you all 842 00:49:01.469 --> 00:49:05.360 for downloading the podcast each and every week and listening. 843 00:49:05.380 --> 00:49:07.860 And of course, if you hadn't rated Make sure you 844 00:49:07.900 --> 00:49:12.889 subscribe and rate so more folks can hear us every week. 845 00:49:13.309 --> 00:49:16.590 But we're going to start off with, Tim, I think 846 00:49:16.630 --> 00:49:19.190 the race that you may have been the most fascinating, 847 00:49:19.570 --> 00:49:21.929 either the one maybe that you didn't live in or 848 00:49:21.969 --> 00:49:24.920 live in now, but that would be the main Senate race. 849 00:49:25.039 --> 00:49:29.440 Susan Collins, the person that's been left for dead for 850 00:49:29.460 --> 00:49:33.960 at least another cycle before this and always comes back. 851 00:49:34.480 --> 00:49:38.059 But is this the cycle that Democrats finally get or 852 00:49:38.079 --> 00:49:41.760 because really Donald Trump's? dug too big a hole for her. 853 00:49:42.909 --> 00:49:44.110 Oh, how many. 854 00:49:43.909 --> 00:49:47.610 Times have we discussed Susan Collins on this show and 855 00:49:47.670 --> 00:49:51.820 how she always figures out a way to win, even 856 00:49:51.889 --> 00:49:55.420 when the polls show her to be in trouble, and 857 00:49:55.460 --> 00:49:59.340 they have done so in the past. But this has 858 00:49:59.380 --> 00:50:03.019 been a pretty wild election season up there in Maine, 859 00:50:03.119 --> 00:50:06.489 and here we go again with her. She's been there 860 00:50:06.570 --> 00:50:07.590 for five terms. 861 00:50:08.559 --> 00:50:09.719 I'm going to tell you what, though. 862 00:50:09.840 --> 00:50:14.090 I think her look has finally run out. There's the 863 00:50:14.190 --> 00:50:18.389 old political saying. They call them waves now, but, you know, 864 00:50:18.570 --> 00:50:22.690 when I first got involved in politics, they called them landslides. 865 00:50:23.329 --> 00:50:24.630 And the old saying. 866 00:50:24.269 --> 00:50:28.909 Was landslides don't stop at state lines. And so I'm 867 00:50:28.949 --> 00:50:33.699 going to predict that Troy Jackson, despite all that's happened 868 00:50:33.780 --> 00:50:36.699 on there, is going to win this race by two 869 00:50:36.739 --> 00:50:40.090 to three points. And we're going to have a Democratic 870 00:50:40.210 --> 00:50:44.070 senator from the great state of Maine joining the Senate. 871 00:50:44.969 --> 00:50:47.719 I agree with you. I think Troy Jackson wins. He 872 00:50:47.780 --> 00:50:51.400 seems to stabilize the campaign. People are so worried about him, like, 873 00:50:51.780 --> 00:50:56.179 drinking some, you know, niche coffee and putting it on 874 00:50:56.219 --> 00:50:58.619 the Internet, like he was running this terrible campaign. And 875 00:50:58.699 --> 00:51:02.269 since then, people have just calmed down and looked at 876 00:51:02.349 --> 00:51:05.489 polls and rational data. And then, of course, the debates. 877 00:51:06.059 --> 00:51:10.099 where she talked about how she had really lowered prices 878 00:51:10.219 --> 00:51:13.280 on rock salt, and that was it. And people pointed 879 00:51:13.380 --> 00:51:16.219 out that rock salt's really not something you put on 880 00:51:16.239 --> 00:51:21.280 your kitchen table to

eat. So now we have a 881 00:51:21.400 --> 00:51:25.539 pair of states coming back to back where I thought, 882 00:51:25.840 --> 00:51:28.360 and I was wrong about one of them, and I 883 00:51:28.389 --> 00:51:30.869 think it was just oversight, but both the governors and 884 00:51:30.969 --> 00:51:34.110 the Senate race are ones we need to pick. And 885 00:51:34.130 --> 00:51:39.960 the first one is Ohio. Let's start with the governor's race. 886 00:51:40.340 --> 00:51:44.260 We have what I put as one of the worst candidates, 887 00:51:44.760 --> 00:51:47.679 Vivek Ramaswamy. In some ways, I think he's probably a 888 00:51:47.739 --> 00:51:54.380 worse candidate now than Byron Donalds because Vivek Ramaswamy keeps 889 00:51:54.639 --> 00:51:58.900 making mistakes during this campaign. Byron Donalds just kind of 890 00:51:58.980 --> 00:52:02.500 had a bad profile. He had been sticking his foot 891 00:52:02.519 --> 00:52:05.610 in his mouth over and over like Vivek Ramaswamy has 892 00:52:05.659 --> 00:52:10.570 with um, horrifically bad ads that had been repudiated even 893 00:52:10.610 --> 00:52:14.960 by Republicans. And the fact that he apparently never swung 894 00:52:14.980 --> 00:52:18.199 a baseball bat in his life, um, before the campaign 895 00:52:18.340 --> 00:52:20.420 ad and everything else. And so I'll go ahead and 896 00:52:20.440 --> 00:52:23.920 go first. I don't think Amy Acton was the best 897 00:52:23.989 --> 00:52:27.349 candidate Democrats could have put forward. I think if Tim 898 00:52:27.429 --> 00:52:30.170 Ryan would have been the nominee, this race would have 899 00:52:30.190 --> 00:52:34.150 been off the board two months ago. But since, um, 900 00:52:34.840 --> 00:52:37.500 You know, Amy Acton is a little bit weaker candidate. 901 00:52:37.679 --> 00:52:39.960 It put it a little more in play, and probably 902 00:52:39.980 --> 00:52:44.420 more importantly, the fact that Ohio has tended to trend 903 00:52:44.460 --> 00:52:47.599 Republican in the past few cycles. But I think that 904 00:52:47.679 --> 00:52:50.840 is up, and we're going to see a governor, a 905 00:52:51.699 --> 00:52:55.389 Democratic governor in Ohio. What's your take on this race? 906 00:52:56.329 --> 00:53:02.289 Well, you know, unfortunately for Vivek Ramaswamy, the story has 907 00:53:02.389 --> 00:53:06.789 been– pretty much that he's not been a good candidate. Also, 908 00:53:07.070 --> 00:53:10.849 you got to remember, we've talked about that terrible ad 909 00:53:11.269 --> 00:53:18.010 that his campaign ran featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother, and 910 00:53:18.449 --> 00:53:23.489 it just blew up in their faces. And some GOP insiders, 911 00:53:23.590 --> 00:53:29.199 according to MSNBC, have said that this ad is has 912 00:53:30.250 --> 00:53:34.389 actually put the wind at the back of Amy Acton 913 00:53:34.510 --> 00:53:37.710 and has hurt him terribly. I'll tell you what, I 914 00:53:37.750 --> 00:53:40.150 think she's going to win by two to five points. 915 00:53:40.289 --> 00:53:44.139 I wouldn't have dreamed this earlier, but I believe she's 916 00:53:44.469 --> 00:53:45.460 going to be your governor. 917 00:53:46.219 --> 00:53:49.280 Yeah, and I guess that almost brings another question as 918 00:53:49.300 --> 00:53:53.800 we talk about the Senate race. I really thought that 919 00:53:53.929 --> 00:53:56.949 Sherrod Brown would have outrun her no matter what the 920 00:53:56.989 --> 00:54:01.150 results are now. And it's not really Sherrod Brown outrunning 921 00:54:01.190 --> 00:54:04.989 her as much as it will be John Husted, even 922 00:54:05.030 --> 00:54:10.429 in a loss, outrunning Vivek Ramaswamy. John Husted has, of course, 923 00:54:10.469 --> 00:54:15.269 had the most discussed posterior of any person probably on 924 00:54:15.429 --> 00:54:18.730 planet Earth over the past two weeks. Because it's not 925 00:54:18.789 --> 00:54:22.369 only Donald Trump, it's everybody commenting on about Donald Trump's 926 00:54:22.429 --> 00:54:28.659 fascination with John Husted's backside, but that would be a 927 00:54:28.739 --> 00:54:34.079 Senate race which would return Sherrod Brown to the Senate 928 00:54:34.219 --> 00:54:39.519 after a two-year hiatus. Tim, what's your take on that race? 929 00:54:40.019 --> 00:54:43.340 Well, as crazy as some of these races have been 930 00:54:43.360 --> 00:54:50.000 with ups and downs, The senator's posterior notwithstanding, because he 931 00:54:50.039 --> 00:54:52.559 really didn't cause that, Donald Trump. 932 00:54:52.900 --> 00:54:57.210 Who creates chaos everywhere, caused that. But this race has 933 00:54:57.329 --> 00:54:58.309 been stable. 934 00:54:59.070 --> 00:55:02.329 Sherrod Brown seems to have had the lead for pretty 935 00:55:02.389 --> 00:55:07.170 much this entire race for the duration. And the numbers 936 00:55:07.469 --> 00:55:11.380 have been stable also in the pollings. It's still going 937 00:55:11.400 --> 00:55:14.699 to be close, and he may win by less than 938 00:55:14.849 --> 00:55:17.869 Amy Acton, but he is going to win, Sherrod Brown is, 939 00:55:17.949 --> 00:55:19.150 by two to four points. 940 00:55:19.190 --> 00:55:21.590 This is a Democratic year in Ohio, David. 941 00:55:22.369 --> 00:55:24.210 Yeah, I think it's going to win, and this is 942 00:55:24.250 --> 00:55:27.599 not a case where John Hustead's run a bad campaign. 943 00:55:27.940 --> 00:55:31.260 He didn't make this cringier when Donald Trump kept on 944 00:55:31.300 --> 00:55:37.159 about it, like others, including Florida Senator Ashley Moody, saying 945 00:55:37.219 --> 00:55:42.289 she's jealous. that her backside wasn't complimented. And I think 946 00:55:42.329 --> 00:55:46.530 a few other politicians have said weird things, and John 947 00:55:46.570 --> 00:55:49.409 Husted hadn't done that. But he's probably going to be 948 00:55:49.429 --> 00:55:53.800 ex-Senator John Husted after Tuesday. Now, let's go to Iowa, 949 00:55:53.989

--> 00:55:56.039 and I'm going to do one real quick. We should 950 00:55:56.079 --> 00:55:58.420 have picked this race last week. I'm not even so 951 00:55:58.500 --> 00:56:00.340 sure we should have put this on the board, because 952 00:56:00.420 --> 00:56:04.059 Rob Sands is going to win, and Rob Sands is 953 00:56:04.099 --> 00:56:08.639 probably going to win this governorship by a bigger margin 954 00:56:08.659 --> 00:56:15.000 than any non-incumbent Democratic governor on Tuesday. So quickly pick 955 00:56:15.989 --> 00:56:17.510 this Iowa governor's race. 956 00:56:18.570 --> 00:56:20.650 Well, you got Zach Lyon running. 957 00:56:20.789 --> 00:56:23.190 Who embraces RFK Jr. 958 00:56:23.230 --> 00:56:28.420 And that MAHA movement that hasn't exactly... produced. 959 00:56:28.059 --> 00:56:32.380 A scintillating campaign, Rob Sand, the state auditor, knows how 960 00:56:32.400 --> 00:56:35.119 to win statewide races. He's going to win this thing 961 00:56:35.159 --> 00:56:38.760 by 7 to 10, I believe, David. Yes. 962 00:56:39.079 --> 00:56:41.039 Now let's flip over to the other side. And one 963 00:56:41.059 --> 00:56:45.079 we've already discussed where, you know, I believe Adam called 964 00:56:45.119 --> 00:56:48.519 it the closest Senate race in the country. I think 965 00:56:48.639 --> 00:56:52.139 Josh Turek's going to win. He is an excellent candidate 966 00:56:52.159 --> 00:56:55.460 with an excellent profile. Barack Obama is He's endorsed a 967 00:56:55.500 --> 00:56:59.340 lot of candidates, but if I'm not mistaken, Josh Turek 968 00:56:59.360 --> 00:57:01.380 was one of the first ones he endorsed, and he 969 00:57:01.400 --> 00:57:05.239 actually went to Iowa to film a commercial with him 970 00:57:06.409 --> 00:57:09.250 playing basketball since they have a shared love of the game, 971 00:57:09.269 --> 00:57:13.849 although one played it for the U.S. Olympic team with 972 00:57:13.889 --> 00:57:17.670 wheelchair basketball. And really, it's unfortunate for poor old Ashley 973 00:57:17.710 --> 00:57:22.260 Henson Cussin Another cycle she probably holds on. She probably 974 00:57:22.280 --> 00:57:25.139 could have held under a congressional seat because she's not 975 00:57:25.280 --> 00:57:30.059 one of these odious Republican candidates that just turns people 976 00:57:30.300 --> 00:57:34.159 off like a lot of these characters we've discussed. So 977 00:57:34.239 --> 00:57:36.369 your take on that, Governor? Yeah, I bet. 978 00:57:37.750 --> 00:57:41.409 This is one of two red states that Trump was 979 00:57:41.469 --> 00:57:45.130 supposedly going to be in today. I haven't looked at 980 00:57:45.170 --> 00:57:47.750 the news tonight right before we went on to see 981 00:57:47.789 --> 00:57:53.059 if he actually did do that. The Republicans have been 982 00:57:53.219 --> 00:58:00.159 feverishly trying to prop Representative Hansen up. In this environment, though, 983 00:58:00.199 --> 00:58:06.340 the winds at the back of Josh Turek I think 984 00:58:06.559 --> 00:58:09.599 our two guests are right. This may be the closest 985 00:58:09.739 --> 00:58:14.719 race in the country, and I think Henson hangs on 986 00:58:14.840 --> 00:58:15.980 by one point. 987 00:58:17.440 --> 00:58:21.260 Wow. Okay, so we've split on another race, but I 988 00:58:21.320 --> 00:58:26.050 do acknowledge that her candidate quality is superior to, I 989 00:58:26.090 --> 00:58:30.690 could insert 10 different Republicans this cycle. So now let's 990 00:58:30.730 --> 00:58:33.789 talk about Kansas Senate, the other race, the race that 991 00:58:33.829 --> 00:58:36.320 I believe lecture thought was going to be a little closer. 992 00:58:38.000 --> 00:58:43.840 Adam Hamilton is the challenger. The Democratic nominee is definitely 993 00:58:43.880 --> 00:58:47.000 not fit the profile of what we would have seen 994 00:58:47.039 --> 00:58:53.760 in past cycles, but he's running against Roger Marshall, who 995 00:58:54.199 --> 00:58:58.519 has just said all the wrong things. Like, I don't 996 00:58:58.539 --> 00:59:02.090 know that an incumbent is running as bad a campaign 997 00:59:02.530 --> 00:59:05.530 in America. So I'll go ahead and pick this one first. 998 00:59:05.969 --> 00:59:09.889 I think Adam Hamilton is going to pull this out. 999 00:59:09.989 --> 00:59:14.150 He's been consistently leading in a lot of polls. This 1000 00:59:14.250 --> 00:59:17.250 could be that even more people move on board. And, 1001 00:59:17.309 --> 00:59:20.510 of course, it's just hard to attack this gentleman. He's 1002 00:59:20.570 --> 00:59:25.030 the pastor of the largest Methodist church, I believe, in 1003 00:59:25.070 --> 00:59:30.869 America and the largest church in Kansas. And so he's 1004 00:59:30.949 --> 00:59:34.250 somebody with a super high profile going in here, but 1005 00:59:34.309 --> 00:59:37.409 not somebody that has a political profile. Somebody has a 1006 00:59:37.449 --> 00:59:42.239 profile for doing good works and mission work. And that's 1007 00:59:42.320 --> 00:59:45.340 how he was introduced. So your prediction on this race? 1008 00:59:46.420 --> 00:59:49.659 Well, a little bit of history. Do our listeners know 1009 00:59:49.719 --> 00:59:54.139 who a fellow named George McGill was? Well, I'll tell 1010 00:59:54.179 --> 00:59:57.119 you right quick, since we're pressed for time, he was 1011 00:59:57.199 --> 01:00:03.400 elected as the last Democratic senator in Kansas in 1932. 1012 01:00:03.400 --> 01:00:08.260 And since then, starting in 1938, the Republicans have an 1013 01:00:08.280 --> 01:00:13.369 88-year winning streak out there. That's the longest in U.S. 1014 01:00:13.489 --> 01:00:19.030 Senate history. So we're fighting against history itself. That being said, 1015 01:00:19.530 --> 01:00:23.530 I believe that That being said, I believe that Reverend 1016 01:00:23.570 --> 01:00:29.579 Hamilton is the very best U.S. Senate candidate among challengers 1017 01:00:29.780 -->

01:00:35.119 in this country. And this one may not be as 1018 01:00:35.219 --> 01:00:37.199 close as many believe it is. 1019 01:00:37.280 --> 01:00:40.690 David, I think Hamilton wins by four to seven points. 1020 01:00:41.570 --> 01:00:44.690 Yeah, it'll be fascinating. And then one final race, and 1021 01:00:44.730 --> 01:00:48.619 this is a race where it's not... Democrat versus Republican, 1022 01:00:48.639 --> 01:00:51.860 but it's somebody who is an independent, but we see 1023 01:00:51.900 --> 01:00:55.019 that they're going to be not Republican if they were 1024 01:00:55.059 --> 01:01:02.219 to win. Dan Osborne ran two years ago against Deb Fischer. 1025 01:01:02.280 --> 01:01:07.670 He lost, but in a much friendlier Republican year with 1026 01:01:08.550 --> 01:01:12.590 a more popular Donald Trump on the ballot. But this 1027 01:01:12.670 --> 01:01:17.199 time he's running against Pete Ricketts, former governor of I guess, 1028 01:01:17.570 --> 01:01:20.719 one of the owners of the Chicago Cubs. Is that correct? 1029 01:01:21.880 --> 01:01:22.139 Yes. 1030 01:01:23.039 --> 01:01:29.820 And then also the husband of a Democrat, his wife, 1031 01:01:29.860 --> 01:01:34.519 who's actually running for some type of school post or serving. 1032 01:01:34.579 --> 01:01:38.940 And so it's just a weird dynamic there. We just 1033 01:01:39.239 --> 01:01:42.650 so many different moving parts, but no real Democrat to 1034 01:01:42.730 --> 01:01:47.590 speak of in this race. And so, Tim, how do 1035 01:01:47.610 --> 01:01:48.349 you see this one? 1036 01:01:49.829 --> 01:01:52.949 Well, I believe this one's competitive only because of the 1037 01:01:52.989 --> 01:01:58.550 blowback against Republicans. Ricketts is not a bad candidate, but 1038 01:01:59.849 --> 01:02:04.309 it just seems lately that very few GOP seats are 1039 01:02:04.369 --> 01:02:05.380 safe anywhere. 1040 01:02:05.760 --> 01:02:09.280 But I think Ricketts will survive. He'll win by six points. 1041 01:02:10.699 --> 01:02:13.840 Yeah, this is one I want to say Oswald wins, 1042 01:02:13.909 --> 01:02:16.050 but I don't know that it is. I do think 1043 01:02:16.110 --> 01:02:19.829 that the Omaha Senate seat flips. And I've even heard 1044 01:02:19.849 --> 01:02:21.610 the House seat. 1045 01:02:21.650 --> 01:02:24.570 You mean the House seat. You mean the House seat. 1046 01:02:24.690 --> 01:02:27.460 I mean the House seat. Omaha doesn't have its own 1047 01:02:27.500 --> 01:02:30.139 Senate seat. That would be some kind of new thing. 1048 01:02:30.420 --> 01:02:33.320 So the Omaha House seat was going to flip with 1049 01:02:33.340 --> 01:02:35.599 Don Bacon not running for re-election. And it might even 1050 01:02:35.639 --> 01:02:38.539 flip with a running for re-election. Even Mike Flood, there 1051 01:02:38.559 --> 01:02:41.030 was a poll showing he's in danger. The one thing 1052 01:02:41.070 --> 01:02:44.409 that could help, and this is not a prediction, but 1053 01:02:44.650 --> 01:02:48.329 just how Osborne would get there, would be that there's 1054 01:02:48.369 --> 01:02:54.210 just a massive turnout in Omaha, in Lincoln. I don't 1055 01:02:54.250 --> 01:02:56.630 even know what the third largest city in Nebraska is, 1056 01:02:56.710 --> 01:03:01.469 but those pockets of bigger population, and then the western 1057 01:03:01.510 --> 01:03:05.369 part of the state just doesn't turn out. And that 1058 01:03:05.409 --> 01:03:09.320 would be the key to victory. It's kind of a 1059 01:03:09.730 --> 01:03:13.889 You just have to hope people don't show up in 1060 01:03:13.929 --> 01:03:16.630 the rural areas, the more Republican areas, or I guess 1061 01:03:16.710 --> 01:03:21.489 even Omaha Republicans or Lincoln Republicans. But a lot of 1062 01:03:21.550 --> 01:03:24.900 picks tonight. We'll see how everything turns out. Wendy, of course, 1063 01:03:24.940 --> 01:03:26.699 she got to pick all the easy ones so she 1064 01:03:26.719 --> 01:03:29.579 can just point fingers at us whichever way she wants to. 1065 01:03:29.599 --> 01:03:34.179 We'll get her back, and we're going to cover whatever happens, good, bad, 1066 01:03:34.280 --> 01:03:37.840 or crazy. We will cover it. And, of course, we 1067 01:03:37.880 --> 01:03:41.130 don't even know what will happen tomorrow. besides these elections 1068 01:03:41.570 --> 01:03:44.050 next Sunday. But we'll be back on the Kudzu Vine 1069 01:03:44.090 --> 01:03:44.960 to discuss it all. 1070 01:03:46.420 --> 01:03:47.119 Good night, guys. 1071 01:03:47.139 --> 01:03:48.659 Good night, everybody.