Outmigration Is Reshaping Elections | The REAL Reason Republicans Will Lose | Monologue Monday の全文書き起こし

71 00:04:43.365 --> 00:04:45.748 Tonight, we have three segments with one verdict. 72 00:04:46.248 --> 00:04:51.153 The GOP problem, the out-migration misread, and the electoral map shifting. 73 00:04:51.854 --> 00:04:56.419 Underneath the party's feet while they argue about speaking slots at the next donor dinner. 74 00:04:56.799 --> 00:04:59.582 Because what's happening here isn't random, it's structural. 75 00:05:00.283 --> 00:05:04.768 Because when you actually look at what's happening, it's not complicated. 76 00:05:06.042 --> 00:05:07.283 They didn't just complain. 77 00:05:07.683 --> 00:05:08.224 They left. 78 00:05:08.924 --> 00:05:19.532 Millions of people looked at the taxes, the housing, the streets, the schools, and loaded a U-Haul and drove and did not come back. 79 00:05:21.533 --> 00:05:26.997 U-Haul's one-way pricing, by the way, is basically a real-time blue state misery index. 80 00:05:27.678 --> 00:05:28.498 Let's do the numbers. 81 00:05:29.379 --> 00:05:33.382 California, between 2020 and 2023, California lost over 500,000 residents net. 82 00:05:35.637 --> 00:05:40.918 After counting everyone who moved in, half a million more people left than arrived. 83 00:05:41.879 --> 00:05:44.799 Wyoming's entire population is about 580,000. 84 00:05:44.819 --> 00:05:48.560 California lost almost an entire Wyoming. 85 00:05:49.300 --> 00:05:54.442 Not to national disaster, not to war, to a rider truck and a change of address form. 86 00:05:55.142 --> 00:05:57.462 That is not a demographic blip. 87 00:05:58.062 --> 00:05:58.923 That is a verdict. 88 00:05:59.503 --> 00:06:01.903 New York, over 300,000 people gone in two years. 89 00:06:04.726 --> 00:06:10.009 New York City, the city that never sleeps, apparently never sleeps because people are up all night packing. 90 00:06:10.850 --> 00:06:12.070 Wall Street's still there. 91 00:06:12.130 --> 00:06:14.272 The $22 salads are still there. 92 00:06:15.112 --> 00:06:17.033 But the middle class is gone. 93 00:06:17.894 --> 00:06:20.396 Took the tax base, left the salads. 94 00:06:21.156 --> 00:06:22.477 Illinois, similar story. 95 00:06:22.517 --> 00:06:25.219 Population loss every single year for nearly a decade. 96 00:06:25.620 --> 00:06:28.202 Over 300,000 residents since 2015. 97 00:06:28.682 --> 00:06:34.346 Chicago, one of the greatest cities ever built, lost over 100,000 residents since 2020 alone. 98 00:06:34.946 --> 00:06:36.868 They didn't leave because they hate architecture. 99 00:06:37.228 --> 00:06:39.590 They left because their car got broken into four times. 100 00:06:39.830 --> 00:06:42.412 And the aldermen sent a strongly worded tweet about it. 101 00:06:43.583 --> 00:06:48.445 Illinois politicians respond to population loss the way a bad chef responds to empty tables. 102 00:06:49.105 --> 00:06:51.766 They assume you just left because you don't understand their cuisine. 103 00:06:52.286 --> 00:06:53.466 No, you understood it fine. 104 00:06:53.846 --> 00:06:58.228 You just

didn't want to pay for it anymore with your car and your taxes and your will to live. 105 00:06:58.788 --> 00:06:59.428 Where did they go? 106 00:07:00.269 --> 00:07:03.190 Texas gained over 4 million new residents in the last decade. 107 00:07:03.730 --> 00:07:10.352 That's the entire population of Oregon deciding simultaneously that no income tax deserves a second look. 108 00:07:11.203 --> 00:07:19.287 Austin absorbed so many California transplants that some neighborhoods now have breakfast tacos with a side of oat milk and a bumper sticker about ranked choice voting. 109 00:07:19.907 --> 00:07:21.728 I say that lovingly, sort of. 110 00:07:22.188 --> 00:07:32.593 But you met this guy, moved from San Francisco, complains about California taxes constantly, votes for the politicians who created California taxes every time. 111 00:07:33.253 --> 00:07:34.414 He's in Austin now. 112 00:07:34.834 --> 00:07:35.774 He's registered. 113 00:07:35.994 --> 00:07:36.495 He votes. 114 00:07:37.327 --> 00:07:38.588 Florida, similar story. 115 00:07:38.928 --> 00:07:44.432 Over 3 million new residents, now the third most populous state in the entire country. 116 00:07:45.132 --> 00:07:52.237 Florida, the state the left spent 20 years calling a national embarrassment growing faster than almost anywhere in the country. 117 00:07:53.223 --> 00:07:58.306 People chose the humidity over the homelessness, the alligators over the open-air drug markets. 118 00:07:58.807 --> 00:08:01.929 At least in Florida, the thing trying to eat you is honest about it. 119 00:08:02.769 --> 00:08:06.972 Arizona, over 700,000 new residents between 2020 and 23. 120 00:08:07.452 --> 00:08:09.714 Phoenix is now the fifth largest city in America. 121 00:08:10.394 --> 00:08:15.538 Phoenix, a city that is essentially a hairdryer pointed at a cul-de-sac, is now bigger than Philadelphia. 122 00:08:16.443 --> 00:08:20.245 People are choosing 115 degree summers over California's cost of living. 123 00:08:20.805 --> 00:08:21.965 That's not a preference. 124 00:08:22.666 --> 00:08:26.507 That is a psychological breaking point followed immediately by a moving truck. 125 00:08:26.847 --> 00:08:30.409 North Carolina, nearly 900,000 new residents since 2020. 126 00:08:30.789 --> 00:08:34.430 The research triangle absorbing transplants from New York and New Jersey. 127 00:08:34.770 --> 00:08:36.711 The way a paper towel absorbs a spill. 128 00:08:37.091 --> 00:08:38.392 Except the spill is people. 129 00:08:38.872 --> 00:08:42.574 And the paper towel is now a swing state with a Senate race that could go either way. 130 00:08:43.094 --> 00:08:45.575 Pay attention to the last part because we're going to come back to it. 131 00:08:46.253 --> 00:08:47.154 Why did they leave? 132 00:08:47.775 --> 00:08:49.137 The easy answer is taxes. 133 00:08:49.197 --> 00:08:51.159 California's top rate, 13%. 134 00:08:51.580 --> 00:08:53.642 New York City combined close to 15%. 135 00:08:53.963 --> 00:08:56.406 Illinois, functionally insolvent for years. 136 00:08:56.946 --> 00:08:58.148 But it wasn't just taxes. 137 00:08:58.789 --> 00:09:05.217 It was the feeling, that slow, daily, demoralizing feeling that the people running the state had decided you were the problem. 138 00:09:06.419 --> 00:09:09.881 It was a two-bedroom house in Sacramento listed at $750,000. 139 00:09:09.901 --> 00:09:12.743 Not Manhattan, Sacramento. 140 00:09:12.903 --> 00:09:19.147 It was a school system so captured by ideology, your kid came home knowing their pronouns, but not their multiplication tables. 141 00:09:20.127 --> 00:09:24.310 Which is great if you want your child to be very affirmed and completely unemployable. 142 00:09:25.410 --> 00:09:29.453 These policies weren't sold as collapse, but they produced it. 143 00:09:30.727 --> 00:09:33.708 Personal tangent, because it matters. 144 00:09:33.728 --> 00:09:36.148 I live in Portland, Oregon, which I talked about earlier. 145 00:09:36.708 --> 00:09:46.971 For those of you who haven't visited, is what happens when you take a genuinely beautiful city and let a political science thesis run it for 15 years. 146 00:09:47.971 --> 00:09:50.411 I've watched storefronts board up on streets. 147 00:09:50.491 --> 00:09:51.732 I walked every morning. 148 00:09:52.372 --> 00:09:58.173 I watched good people, smart people, people who believed in this place, pack their apartments and leave. 149 00:09:59.468 --> 00:10:04.433 Most of them were not conservatives, not MAGA, not Republicans. 150 00:10:05.574 --> 00:10:13.601 They were normal people who voted for every levy, every measure, every candidate the party told them would fix it time after time. 151 00:10:14.362 --> 00:10:16.163 And then one day they did the math. 152 00:10:17.004 --> 00:10:18.806 The math said, leave. 153 00:10:19.726 --> 00:10:21.748 I had a conversation with a woman I'll call Karen. 154 00:10:21.808 --> 00:10:24.551 No, not that kind of Karen, an actual woman named Karen. 155 00:10:25.489 --> 00:10:32.272 was a nurse, lifelong Democrat, Obama twice, Clinton, Biden, moved to Tennessee. 156 00:10:33.833 --> 00:10:36.534 I asked Karen, what finally did it for you? 157 00:10:36.594 --> 00:10:38.495 What was the straw that broke the camel's back? 158 00:10:39.855 --> 00:10:42.236 She told me I couldn't afford to live where I worked. 159 00:10:42.836 --> 00:10:47.118 I served homeless patients and couldn't afford to live in the same city they lived in. 160 00:10:48.719 --> 00:10:51.280 And when I brought that up, they called me a gentrifier. 161 00:10:52.593 --> 00:10:56.035 She voted Republican for the first time in her life in 2022. 162 00:10:56.896 --> 00:10:58.176 She is not an anomaly. 163 00:10:58.557 --> 00:11:00.178 She is a data point with a face. 164 00:11:00.658 --> 00:11:08.483 In a movement the Republican Party does not fully understand yet, and sadly, Republicans looked at this and thought, perfect. 165 00:11:09.423 --> 00:11:10.804 And that was their

first mistake. 166 00:11:11.985 --> 00:11:19.910 The assumption, people left blue states, blue states have bad policies, therefore the people who left must agree with us. 167 00:11:21.666 --> 00:11:24.288 Sadly, that is not how human beings work. 168 00:11:25.389 --> 00:11:38.460 You don't spend, and I'm telling you from experience, 30 years marinating in a political worldview, voting for it, defending it at Thanksgiving, and then cross the state line and immediately become a Federalist Society member. 169 00:11:39.861 --> 00:11:41.762 That is not what happened. 170 00:11:42.463 --> 00:11:44.204 They brought their values with them. 171 00:11:44.444 --> 00:11:50.049 Not all of them, not permanently, but enough to make our lives harder. 172 00:11:51.143 --> 00:11:53.244 They left because the policies failed. 173 00:11:53.904 --> 00:11:57.146 They did not leave because they stopped believing in the policies. 174 00:11:57.886 --> 00:12:00.867 That is the distinction the GOP missed completely. 175 00:12:01.868 --> 00:12:09.811 It's like a patient who left a hospital because the doctor kept making them sicker, and the hospital assumed the patient now has a medical degree. 176 00:12:10.952 --> 00:12:11.392 They don't. 177 00:12:12.232 --> 00:12:14.033 They were just tired of being sick. 178 00:12:15.393 --> 00:12:20.936 And the first politician who shows up at their door speaking their language gets their vote. 179 00:12:21.656 --> 00:12:25.278 The Republican Party stupidly assumed reality would do the work. 180 00:12:26.519 --> 00:12:28.060 Reality was doing the work. 181 00:12:28.520 --> 00:12:30.561 The GOP just wasn't in the room. 182 00:12:31.241 --> 00:12:34.323 They were at dinner with the consultant eating the steak. 183 00:12:35.660 --> 00:12:37.681 doing nothing for the voters. 184 00:12:38.021 --> 00:12:39.061 And these aren't trends. 185 00:12:39.141 --> 00:12:42.283 These are voters in this election right now. 186 00:12:42.963 --> 00:12:44.464 Ballots are going out right now. 187 00:12:44.804 --> 00:12:46.104 Primaries are happening. 188 00:12:47.165 --> 00:12:49.166 Arizona Senate within the margin of error. 189 00:12:49.686 --> 00:12:52.187 Georgia, every statewide race is a knife fight. 190 00:12:52.507 --> 00:12:55.188 Texas suburbs, purple and getting more purple. 191 00:12:55.668 --> 00:12:59.830 North Carolina, competitive in a state Republicans used to win in their sleep. 192 00:13:00.871 --> 00:13:03.313 These voters are registered, active. 193 00:13:03.693 --> 00:13:04.994 They showed up in 22. 194 00:13:05.314 --> 00:13:06.775 They showed up in 24. 195 00:13:07.255 --> 00:13:10.838 And the GOP's strategy for reaching them is to assume they already agree. 196 00:13:12.079 --> 00:13:13.540 That is not a strategy. 197 00:13:14.180 --> 00:13:16.562 That is a group project nobody did. 198 00:13:17.523 --> 00:13:22.066 Georgia 2020, Trump lost by fewer than 12,000 votes. 199 00:13:22.486 --> 00:13:28.070 Georgia gained over 100,000 new

residents from out of state in the two years before that election. 200 00:13:29.558 --> 00:13:30.819 You don't need a PhD. 201 00:13:30.839 --> 00:13:33.181 You need a calculator in 45 seconds. 202 00:13:34.383 --> 00:13:35.604 Arizona 2020. 203 00:13:36.004 --> 00:13:38.526 Biden won by just over 10,000 votes. 204 00:13:38.987 --> 00:13:42.370 Arizona added 200,000 new residents in the two years prior. 205 00:13:43.291 --> 00:13:45.853 I'm not saying migration caused those results. 206 00:13:46.514 --> 00:13:52.660 I'm saying migration is a variable the GOP has refused to model state after state, cycle after cycle. 207 00:13:53.572 --> 00:14:00.374 I mean, they keep losing races they should win and blaming everything except the variable they won't model. 208 00:14:01.134 --> 00:14:02.534 That is not bad luck. 209 00:14:02.634 --> 00:14:03.734 That is a choice. 210 00:14:04.355 --> 00:14:07.435 A choice being made with your money and your elections. 211 00:14:08.196 --> 00:14:10.096 Another case study, Stacey Abrams. 212 00:14:10.656 --> 00:14:14.717 She lost in 2018, lost again in 2022. 213 00:14:14.837 --> 00:14:22.519 But between those losses, she registered hundreds of thousands of new voters, built permanent infrastructure, year-round paid staff. 214 00:14:23.477 --> 00:14:30.441 In 2020, the machine helped flip Georgia for the first time since Bill Clinton was playing saxophone on Arsenio Hall. 215 00:14:31.641 --> 00:14:33.702 The Republican response to Stacey Abrams? 216 00:14:34.142 --> 00:14:35.583 I'll just call her a sore loser. 217 00:14:36.684 --> 00:14:41.066 She was also building a voter registration machine in your state while you were calling her names. 218 00:14:41.906 --> 00:14:46.129 Sadly, Republicans can do both, but only one wins elections. 219 00:14:46.909 --> 00:14:48.850 You have to go get the voter. 220 00:14:49.190 --> 00:14:52.332 The voter does not come to you just because you were right. 221 00:14:53.366 --> 00:14:55.647 Being right is not a ground game. 222 00:14:56.387 --> 00:14:58.108 The Republican Party has a theory. 223 00:14:59.129 --> 00:15:04.311 People will see the failure, feel the failure, wake up, then vote Republican. 224 00:15:05.192 --> 00:15:06.552 It's a beautiful theory. 225 00:15:07.113 --> 00:15:07.913 Very clean. 226 00:15:09.154 --> 00:15:13.216 But completely untethered from reality and human behavior. 227 00:15:14.196 --> 00:15:21.740 For every Karen who flipped, there are three people who moved to Tennessee and immediately asked, why doesn't Tennessee have better public transit? 228 00:15:22.880 --> 00:15:23.521 I've met them. 229 00:15:23.961 --> 00:15:24.862 They are registered. 230 00:15:24.902 --> 00:15:27.104 They are voting in your primary right now. 231 00:15:28.765 --> 00:15:31.247 The other side is showing up. 232 00:15:31.547 --> 00:15:32.128 They moved in. 233 00:15:32.208 --> 00:15:35.230 Millions of people moved into these red deadlock places. 234 00:15:36.691 --> 00:15:41.696

And if you think those voters showed up as blank slates, you haven't been paying attention. 235 00:15:42.356 --> 00:15:46.179 And this is where the theory stops and the math starts. 236 00:15:47.120 --> 00:15:51.424 The left spent years, years trying to eliminate the electoral college. 237 00:15:52.510 --> 00:15:55.633 The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. 238 00:15:56.173 --> 00:16:05.602 Court challenges, constitutional arguments, endless New York Times op-eds from people who were very, very confident they'd found the trick to make Wyoming stop counting. 239 00:16:07.023 --> 00:16:07.703 They failed. 240 00:16:08.764 --> 00:16:16.031 The Electoral College is still there, still in the Constitution, still doing exactly what the founders designed it to do. 241 00:16:17.313 --> 00:16:22.639 Turns out the founders were slightly better at this than a think tank in Bethesda, Maryland. 242 00:16:23.740 --> 00:16:25.622 So the math changed anyways. 243 00:16:26.843 --> 00:16:27.764 Not by law. 244 00:16:29.266 --> 00:16:30.487 By population. 245 00:16:31.968 --> 00:16:37.975 Which, I have to say, is a more efficient strategy than anything the compact ever produced. 246 00:16:39.115 --> 00:16:52.047 I mean, after the 2020 census, the one that counted every resident, every household, every person who relocated from San Francisco to somewhere with functioning sewage, Congress reapportioned the House. 247 00:16:52.867 --> 00:16:54.629 Texas gained two congressional seats. 248 00:16:54.729 --> 00:16:55.750 Florida gained one. 249 00:16:55.870 --> 00:16:57.111 California lost one. 250 00:16:57.972 --> 00:17:00.715 Congressional seats equal electoral college votes. 251 00:17:01.355 --> 00:17:02.136 Texas up. 252 00:17:02.316 --> 00:17:03.057 Florida up. 253 00:17:03.297 --> 00:17:04.238 California down. 254 00:17:05.474 --> 00:17:15.159 The left spent a decade trying to dilute the Electoral College and through their own policy failures handed Texas two extra votes and took one from themselves. 255 00:17:16.340 --> 00:17:17.320 That is not irony. 256 00:17:17.780 --> 00:17:22.823 That is a Greek tragedy written by a U-Haul, directed by Gavin Newsom. 257 00:17:23.403 --> 00:17:25.584 You genuinely cannot make this up. 258 00:17:26.765 --> 00:17:28.066 But that's not the real story. 259 00:17:28.866 --> 00:17:33.849 See, the real story is what happened inside those states, specifically the suburbs. 260 00:17:34.688 --> 00:17:43.476 Because you can gain two electoral college votes in Texas and still lose Texas if Houston, Dallas, and Austin flip hard enough. 261 00:17:44.616 --> 00:17:45.637 And they are flipping. 262 00:17:46.258 --> 00:17:55.966 Quietly, incrementally, county by county, subdivision by subdivision, one transplant family at a time, one KitchenAid mixer at a time. 263 00:17:56.867 --> 00:18:01.471 Maricopa County, Phoenix, fourth largest county in America. 264 00:18:02.467 --> 00:18:05.309 In 2020, Joe Biden won Maricopa County. 265 00:18:06.470 --> 00:18:10.633 In 2012, Romney won it by 200,000 votes. 266 00:18:11.394 --> 00:18:12.995 By 2020, Biden flipped it. 267 00:18:13.516 --> 00:18:14.636 That is not a trend. 268 00:18:14.696 --> 00:18:16.118 That is a transformation. 269 00:18:16.818 --> 00:18:19.520 Statewide margin, 10,457 votes. 270 00:18:19.620 --> 00:18:21.982 It's not a landslide. 271 00:18:22.202 --> 00:18:24.044 That's a Costco on a Saturday morning. 272 00:18:25.004 --> 00:18:29.866 10,457 votes flipped Arizona's 11 electoral college votes. 273 00:18:30.486 --> 00:18:34.608 And the county that delivered it is the county absorbing the most California transplants. 274 00:18:35.148 --> 00:18:36.369 That's not a coincidence. 275 00:18:36.449 --> 00:18:37.249 It's a mechanism. 276 00:18:37.849 --> 00:18:44.312 An expensive mechanism the GOP has watched operate for three election cycles and has yet to address it. 277 00:18:45.225 --> 00:18:49.688 Georgia, Biden won by 11,000-something votes in a state of 10 million people. 278 00:18:50.389 --> 00:18:52.571 That is statistically a rounding error. 279 00:18:53.091 --> 00:18:58.835 That is the margin of error on a medium-quality poll taken by someone who kind of wants to be somewhere else. 280 00:19:00.096 --> 00:19:07.562 Cobb County, suburban Atlanta, reliably Republican for decades, moving left for a decade. 281 00:19:08.162 --> 00:19:08.963 Gwinnett County. 282 00:19:10.038 --> 00:19:14.545 In 2004, Republican by 30 points in 2020, Biden carried it. 283 00:19:15.246 --> 00:19:15.807 What happened? 284 00:19:16.628 --> 00:19:23.999 It grew with transplants from New York and New Jersey who packed their voting patterns in the same box as the KitchenAid mixer. 285 00:19:24.279 --> 00:19:25.741 You don't need a new map. 286 00:19:26.434 --> 00:19:28.235 You just need different people on it. 287 00:19:28.935 --> 00:19:32.797 Tarrant County, Texas, Fort Worth, the biggest county in America. 288 00:19:33.417 --> 00:19:38.319 Trump barely held in 2020, won by less than one point. 289 00:19:39.080 --> 00:19:40.981 In 2016, he won it by 10. 290 00:19:41.541 --> 00:19:43.902 In 2012, Romney won it by 20. 291 00:19:44.943 --> 00:19:54.587 Tarrant absorbed migrants from California and Illinois, people who needed somewhere affordable, whose politics had not yet caught up with why they needed somewhere affordable. 292 00:19:55.682 --> 00:20:02.024 If Tarrant flips, and it is trending there, Texas becomes a serious Democratic conversation. 293 00:20:03.585 --> 00:20:04.505 Not in 20 years. 294 00:20:05.426 --> 00:20:05.686 Now. 295 00:20:06.646 --> 00:20:07.126 Texas. 296 00:20:07.807 --> 00:20:10.188 The once Republican security blanket. 297 00:20:10.628 --> 00:20:13.349 Now competitive because people moved. 298 00:20:14.872 --> 00:20:15.673 They moved. 299 00:20:15.773 --> 00:20:16.473 Remember that. 300 00:20:16.834 --> 00:20:18.335 Quick personal tangent. 301 00:20:19.075 --> 00:20:23.039 I have a friend outside Atlanta,

lifelong resident of the Atlanta area. 302 00:20:23.519 --> 00:20:26.501 I visited a couple years ago driving through his neighborhood. 303 00:20:26.962 --> 00:20:38.491 And I noticed the yoga studio where the hardware store was, craft brewery where the diner was, a community gathering space, which is what you call a parking lot when you want to charge admission. 304 00:20:39.472 --> 00:20:42.254 I said, God, man, this place looks different. 305 00:20:43.364 --> 00:20:45.044 He said, yeah, they keep coming. 306 00:20:46.205 --> 00:20:46.545 Who? 307 00:20:47.245 --> 00:20:48.005 Who keeps coming? 308 00:20:48.805 --> 00:20:54.806 People from up north move here, love it, spend the next 10 years trying to make it exactly like the place they left. 309 00:20:55.966 --> 00:20:58.867 He said his county commissioner is from New Jersey. 310 00:20:59.307 --> 00:21:01.707 His HOA president is from New Jersey. 311 00:21:02.027 --> 00:21:06.008 His kids' school board, three people from New Jersey. 312 00:21:07.208 --> 00:21:10.049 Of course, I had to say, what do you have against people from New Jersey? 313 00:21:11.309 --> 00:21:11.930 He said nothing. 314 00:21:12.030 --> 00:21:18.034 I just voted for a county commissioner commissioner who's six hours from New Jersey and still thinks he's in New Jersey. 315 00:21:19.215 --> 00:21:25.180 See, that's the mechanism, suburb by suburb, school board by school board, HOA by HOA. 316 00:21:25.981 --> 00:21:30.525 The people move, the politics follow, and the Democrats know this. 317 00:21:31.906 --> 00:21:33.387 Eventually is now. 318 00:21:34.940 --> 00:21:36.441 Should have been a red wave. 319 00:21:36.661 --> 00:21:38.322 Every fundamental said red wave. 320 00:21:38.382 --> 00:21:42.244 Every Republican consultant had already picked out their victory dinner reservation. 321 00:21:43.805 --> 00:21:44.905 But the wave didn't come. 322 00:21:45.726 --> 00:21:47.346 Blake Masters lost by five. 323 00:21:47.707 --> 00:21:50.688 Carrie Lake lost by 17,000 votes. 324 00:21:50.768 --> 00:21:52.489 Mark Fickham lost all three. 325 00:21:53.209 --> 00:21:57.312 In a state with a Republican registration advantage, with a Democratic president at 40% approval. 326 00:21:57.332 --> 00:21:57.452 Lost. 327 00:22:00.489 --> 00:22:01.549 And the official lesson? 328 00:22:02.249 --> 00:22:04.010 Oh, the election was probably stolen. 329 00:22:04.610 --> 00:22:08.271 Again, not that nobody knocked doors in Maricopa. 330 00:22:08.771 --> 00:22:12.852 Not that 700 new residents were sitting there uncontacted. 331 00:22:13.492 --> 00:22:14.773 No, stolen. 332 00:22:15.673 --> 00:22:16.613 That's not a lesson. 333 00:22:17.293 --> 00:22:19.934 That's a permission slip to not do the work. 334 00:22:20.554 --> 00:22:23.715 A very convenient, very expensive permission slip. 335 00:22:24.555 --> 00:22:28.156 At some point, coincidence stops being a serious explanation. 336 00:22:29.008 --> 00:22:36.314 Republicans are still running against the map they think exists, not the one that actually does. 337 00:22:38.275 --> 00:22:43.919 Same ad they ran in 2014, same strategy, same consultants, different electorate. 338 00:22:45.280 --> 00:22:46.942 That is not a plan. 339 00:22:47.922 --> 00:22:50.123 That is nostalgia with a campaign logo. 340 00:22:50.263 --> 00:22:52.505 And these margins matter in this election. 341 00:22:52.645 --> 00:22:53.786 Ballots are going out today. 342 00:22:53.846 --> 00:22:54.966 Primaries happening now. 343 00:22:55.307 --> 00:22:56.367 North Carolina Senate. 344 00:22:56.607 --> 00:23:02.311 Both parties watching because the transplant vote is real, growing, and not locked in for anyone. 345 00:23:03.552 --> 00:23:08.755 Texas has four congressional districts that were safe Republican 10 years ago. 346 00:23:08.835 --> 00:23:11.897 Now on the Democratic outside spending target list. 347 00:23:12.597 --> 00:23:12.938 Four. 348 00:23:13.898 --> 00:23:15.059 Nobody is laughing now. 349 00:23:16.471 --> 00:23:17.892 The Electoral College didn't change. 350 00:23:17.932 --> 00:23:18.992 The left couldn't do it. 351 00:23:19.492 --> 00:23:20.833 But the population moved. 352 00:23:21.233 --> 00:23:24.215 Destruction forced movement to change voters. 353 00:23:24.815 --> 00:23:28.196 And the population moving did something no constitutional amendment could. 354 00:23:29.137 --> 00:23:35.740 Took the same map, the same Electoral College, and changed who was standing on it. 355 00:23:35.780 --> 00:23:41.182 10,000 voters in Maricopa are worth more than 100,000 voters in rural Oklahoma. 356 00:23:42.343 --> 00:23:44.504 Not because of the Electoral College. 357 00:23:45.651 --> 00:23:47.493 because of where those voters landed. 358 00:23:48.493 --> 00:23:52.657 Shift a few thousand voters, move a few counties, tighten a few suburbs. 359 00:23:53.798 --> 00:23:55.660 You don't get new voters. 360 00:23:56.460 --> 00:23:59.883 You get the same voters in a place where they matter more. 361 00:24:00.644 --> 00:24:02.125 So here's where we are. 362 00:24:03.046 --> 00:24:03.727 People left. 363 00:24:03.887 --> 00:24:04.467 They moved. 364 00:24:04.848 --> 00:24:08.491 They were forced out based on progressive, destructive policies. 365 00:24:09.712 --> 00:24:14.255 And when they were forced out, progressives realized this is working at their advantage. 366 00:24:14.615 --> 00:24:16.917 Why else haven't they fixed anything? 367 00:24:17.657 --> 00:24:18.698 They haven't fixed anything. 368 00:24:20.079 --> 00:24:27.083 And they're taking serious heat because they lost absolutely zero political power when all these people left. 369 00:24:27.624 --> 00:24:29.505 All their supermajorities still hold. 370 00:24:30.862 --> 00:24:45.531 And they know that these people have been brainwashed to the point where what blue states do so well through schools and institutions and courts and everything else is they differentiate people from their vote and outcomes. 371

00:24:46.172 --> 00:24:48.133 So no one wants to take responsibility. 372 00:24:49.034 --> 00:24:51.555 Talk about this with the Palisades victims all the time. 373 00:24:52.376 --> 00:24:59.921 The people in the Palisades voted over and over again for over a decade to create the perfect conditions for that to happen. 374 00:25:00.508 --> 00:25:04.910 They voted for the same mayor who continually defunded the fire department living in a fire zone. 375 00:25:05.651 --> 00:25:06.851 And now they're blaming the government. 376 00:25:06.952 --> 00:25:15.596 Well, yes, they obviously have suffered a tremendous loss, but they have to take some personal responsibility for their voting patterns and they won't. 377 00:25:16.117 --> 00:25:25.902 And I guarantee you a huge percentage of people in the Palisades will still vote Democrat for Karen Bass for the same people that got their house burned down. 378 00:25:26.898 --> 00:25:33.284 Because people have been trained in blue states especially to separate outcomes from their votes. 379 00:25:33.524 --> 00:25:34.204 So people left. 380 00:25:34.244 --> 00:25:34.585 They moved. 381 00:25:34.605 --> 00:25:38.848 They landed in the suburbs that decide the margins, that decide the states, that decide the map. 382 00:25:39.749 --> 00:25:41.110 The margins are razor thin. 383 00:25:41.691 --> 00:25:46.255 10,000 votes in Arizona, 11,000 in Georgia, 17,000 in a governor's race. 384 00:25:46.315 --> 00:25:48.577 The Republican was supposed to win going away. 385 00:25:49.517 --> 00:25:51.479 So, one question. 386 00:25:51.699 --> 00:25:53.241 What did the GOP do about it? 387 00:25:54.182 --> 00:25:54.502 I'll wait. 388 00:25:55.788 --> 00:25:57.169 They saw the map shifting. 389 00:25:57.730 --> 00:25:59.212 They saw the out-migration. 390 00:25:59.252 --> 00:26:00.413 They saw the purple. 391 00:26:01.294 --> 00:26:02.135 They did nothing. 392 00:26:02.155 --> 00:26:05.698 Well, actually, that's not fair. 393 00:26:06.599 --> 00:26:07.540 They sent an email. 394 00:26:09.122 --> 00:26:11.124 Not nothing like they tried and failed. 395 00:26:11.204 --> 00:26:14.728 Nothing like they looked at the data and decided the map was probably fine. 396 00:26:16.952 --> 00:26:22.917 That is a party choosing comfort over competition while eating good steak at a very nice fundraiser. 397 00:26:23.717 --> 00:26:24.678 And you know me, guys. 398 00:26:25.098 --> 00:26:26.219 I don't do vague. 399 00:26:27.220 --> 00:26:40.891 After losing Arizona by 10,000 votes, Georgia by 11,000, the White House on the thinnest sunbelt margins in history, the Republican Party's primary response was to spend two years arguing about whether the election was stolen. 400 00:26:42.062 --> 00:26:44.003 Listen, I understand the frustration. 401 00:26:44.323 --> 00:26:46.444 I'm not here to relitigate 2020. 402 00:26:46.504 --> 00:26:47.284 I don't care. 403 00:26:48.665 --> 00:26:50.546 But here is the cold hard truth. 404 00:26:50.646 --> 00:26:53.987 Nobody in conservative media wants to say into a live microphone. 405 00:26:55.528 --> 00:26:58.869 Even if every concern about 2020 is valid. 406 00:27:00.450 --> 00:27:02.231 You still have to win the next election. 407 00:27:03.611 --> 00:27:06.372 You cannot win the next election by fighting the last one. 408 00:27:06.412 --> 00:27:07.673 That is not strategy. 409 00:27:09.133 --> 00:27:12.055 And it's basically grief with a super PAC attached to it. 410 00:27:12.816 --> 00:27:15.197 Very expensive grief billable by the hour. 411 00:27:15.498 --> 00:27:18.680 Serious parties do autopsies after narrow losses. 412 00:27:19.080 --> 00:27:22.122 Republicans actually did one in 2012. 413 00:27:22.603 --> 00:27:24.344 The Growth and Opportunity Project. 414 00:27:24.984 --> 00:27:28.046 Hundreds of pages, very thorough, very expensive. 415 00:27:28.787 --> 00:27:38.334 It said, expand the coalition, reach Hispanic voters, modernize the ground game, stop writing off demographics before the race starts. 416 00:27:39.164 --> 00:27:39.844 Sound familiar? 417 00:27:40.144 --> 00:27:41.765 Things I've been saying for years. 418 00:27:42.826 --> 00:27:46.407 The Republican Party took that report and stuck it in a drawer. 419 00:27:47.167 --> 00:27:53.510 Then, in 2016, accidentally stumbled into a strategy that worked once and decided that was the whole playbook forever. 420 00:27:53.530 --> 00:28:02.954 I mean, that would be like a chef accidentally burning a steak, having one customer love it, and burning every steak for the next decade wondering why people stopped coming. 421 00:28:03.674 --> 00:28:04.735 The steak worked once. 422 00:28:06.080 --> 00:28:08.741 That doesn't mean fire is a cooking philosophy. 423 00:28:09.541 --> 00:28:12.742 Now, the ground game is where it gets painful. 424 00:28:13.482 --> 00:28:17.983 Again, Stacey Abrams lost in 2018, lost again in 2022. 425 00:28:18.443 --> 00:28:25.285 However, between those two losses, she registered hundreds of thousands of voters, built permanent infrastructure. 426 00:28:25.905 --> 00:28:27.866 They have a paid year-round staff. 427 00:28:28.901 --> 00:28:32.983 not 90 days before the election, year-round doing voter registration. 428 00:28:33.643 --> 00:28:41.027 In 2020, that machine flipped Georgia for the first time since Bill Clinton was playing saxophone. 429 00:28:41.767 --> 00:28:45.489 And the Republican response to Stacey Abrams, again, they called her a sore loser. 430 00:28:46.150 --> 00:28:50.492 But she was building a voter registration machine in your state while you were doing that. 431 00:28:51.291 --> 00:28:54.193 You could have done both, and only one of them wins elections. 432 00:28:54.714 --> 00:28:55.634 Same in Arizona. 433 00:28:56.295 --> 00:29:00.298 Democrats, permanent campaign model since 2018. 434 00:29:01.058 --> 00:29:07.123 Offices open between elections, staff retained between elections, year-round voter contact. 435 00:29:07.815 -->

00:29:09.615 Arizona Republicans, same period. 436 00:29:09.915 --> 00:29:17.677 Chairmanship battles, purity tests, candidates spending more time fighting each other in primaries than registering voters for the general. 437 00:29:18.297 --> 00:29:18.937 It's sick. 438 00:29:19.637 --> 00:29:22.918 People like Blake, Masters, Thiccum, all lost. 439 00:29:23.258 --> 00:29:25.498 All three big losers. 440 00:29:26.638 --> 00:29:28.639 Republican have registration advantage. 441 00:29:29.159 --> 00:29:30.759 Democratic president was underwater. 442 00:29:31.079 --> 00:29:33.100 Best GOP environment in a decade. 443 00:29:33.340 --> 00:29:34.880 We still lost. 444 00:29:36.384 --> 00:29:37.184 Official lesson? 445 00:29:37.925 --> 00:29:38.725 It was stolen. 446 00:29:40.006 --> 00:29:42.327 Not nobody knocked on doors in Maricopa. 447 00:29:42.648 --> 00:29:46.370 Not 700,000 new residents went completely uncontacted. 448 00:29:46.750 --> 00:29:47.030 Oh, no. 449 00:29:47.350 --> 00:29:47.851 Stolen. 450 00:29:49.131 --> 00:29:50.312 That is not a lesson. 451 00:29:50.352 --> 00:29:52.353 That's a permission slip not to do the work. 452 00:29:53.094 --> 00:29:53.814 Think about money. 453 00:29:53.834 --> 00:29:59.577 2022 cycle, Republicans raised and spent over $4 billion. 454 00:30:00.078 --> 00:30:00.778 $4 billion. 455 00:30:01.759 --> 00:30:03.119 You know what $4 billion buys? 456 00:30:05.167 --> 00:30:13.510 a permanent ground operation in every competitive Sunbelt County in America for 20 years with money left over for the coffee in the yard signs. 457 00:30:14.490 --> 00:30:21.412 Instead, a substantial portion of that $4 billion went to stupid consultants. 458 00:30:22.453 --> 00:30:37.759 The same consultants who missed the suburban collapse, didn't model the transplant vote, didn't build infrastructure in Maricopa, didn't knock on doors in Gwinnett County, and are currently still being paid to consult on this cycle right now. 459 00:30:38.679 --> 00:30:47.743 That would be like hiring the same contractor to rebuild your house after he flooded it three times because he gave a confident presentation and your brother-in-law vouched for him. 460 00:30:48.483 --> 00:30:50.204 The consultants are not the problem. 461 00:30:51.087 --> 00:30:53.830 The party that keeps writing the checks is the problem. 462 00:30:55.451 --> 00:30:57.273 $4 billion. 463 00:30:58.474 --> 00:31:01.176 And a fundraising email with a countdown timer. 464 00:31:02.437 --> 00:31:05.180 And here's the part that genuinely makes me angry. 465 00:31:06.421 --> 00:31:07.962 I'm a gay conservative. 466 00:31:08.843 --> 00:31:12.627 I know what it feels like to be written off before the conversation starts. 467 00:31:13.969 --> 00:31:22.839 I know what it feels like to walk into a room and have someone decide before you open your mouth that you don't belong or I don't belong. 468 00:31:22.959 --> 00:31:24.261 I live that every day. 469 00:31:25.502 --> 00:31:30.748 And I'm

watching the Republican Party do exactly that to an entire category of voters right now. 470 00:31:31.988 --> 00:31:39.932 The transplants, the exhausted, confused, genuinely persuadable people who left because blue governance made their lives worse. 471 00:31:40.873 --> 00:31:46.175 Half registered independent, a third left specifically because the policies failed them. 472 00:31:47.276 --> 00:31:49.417 They are reachable. 473 00:31:50.338 --> 00:31:55.120 Sitting in Maricopa and Gwinnett and Tarrant, waiting for someone to make a case. 474 00:31:56.301 --> 00:31:58.142 The GOP's plan for reaching them? 475 00:31:58.714 --> 00:32:00.175 I'll assume they already agree. 476 00:32:00.636 --> 00:32:01.856 Wait for them to show up. 477 00:32:02.677 --> 00:32:04.018 That is not outreach. 478 00:32:04.679 --> 00:32:07.441 That is arrogance dressed up as confidence. 479 00:32:07.861 --> 00:32:09.002 This is why we lose. 480 00:32:09.743 --> 00:32:13.245 We rest on our laurels every election cycle. 481 00:32:13.886 --> 00:32:14.586 I've been both. 482 00:32:14.646 --> 00:32:15.487 I know the difference. 483 00:32:15.567 --> 00:32:17.228 They are right about the policies. 484 00:32:17.669 --> 00:32:18.750 Low taxes work. 485 00:32:18.790 --> 00:32:19.850 School choices work. 486 00:32:20.131 --> 00:32:21.111 Secure borders work. 487 00:32:21.151 --> 00:32:22.252 Law enforcement works. 488 00:32:23.033 --> 00:32:25.415 And they have spent four election cycles being right. 489 00:32:26.815 --> 00:32:34.040 but they're losing ground because being right without competing is like being the best player who won't show up to the game. 490 00:32:34.680 --> 00:32:38.383 Who cares if you're right, you're technically correct. 491 00:32:38.623 --> 00:32:42.646 You're also losing ballots going out. 492 00:32:42.726 --> 00:32:44.147 Now primaries happening. 493 00:32:44.187 --> 00:32:47.869 Now races tightening in every state we've talked about tonight. 494 00:32:49.330 --> 00:32:51.412 We've completely abandoned the transplant. 495 00:32:52.384 --> 00:32:54.485 The question is not whether Republicans are right. 496 00:32:54.546 --> 00:32:58.969 The question is whether they're willing to do the work that being right requires. 497 00:33:00.250 --> 00:33:08.355 Knocking on doors, registering voters, year-round staff, showing up in neighborhoods without a single Republican yard sign. 498 00:33:09.676 --> 00:33:11.738 Not because those neighborhoods are lost. 499 00:33:12.959 --> 00:33:14.700 Because no one's ever knocked on the door. 500 00:33:15.901 --> 00:33:17.282 And one final data point. 501 00:33:18.182 --> 00:33:29.329 2024, Trump won, flipped Georgia, held Arizona barely, ran up margins nobody expected, and Republicans said, we're fine, maps fixed, coalition held. 502 00:33:31.230 --> 00:33:32.611 But here's what they're not saying. 503 00:33:34.092 --> 00:33:38.095 Trump outperformed because Trump is a ground game. 504 00:33:39.455 --> 00:33:46.418 a single political force who moves voters through sheer presence in a way that has no parallel in modern American politics. 505 00:33:46.998 --> 00:33:49.439 Look at turnout in other elections that he's not in. 506 00:33:50.640 --> 00:33:53.481 Donald Trump is not on the ballot in the midterms. 507 00:33:54.363 --> 00:34:00.288 The candidate on your ballot in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, again, not Donald Trump. 508 00:34:00.949 --> 00:34:07.754 No rallies, no name recognition, no ability to turn out voters who don't show up for anyone else. 509 00:34:08.615 --> 00:34:11.037 See, the Democrats have a ground game. 510 00:34:11.097 --> 00:34:11.658 We don't. 511 00:34:12.619 --> 00:34:17.122 And right now, in too many of these races, we're non-existent. 512 00:34:17.943 --> 00:34:22.207 In areas that should be top Republican areas. 513 00:34:23.557 --> 00:34:27.418 And that's the sad true reason Republicans will lose races they have no business losing. 514 00:34:27.878 --> 00:34:28.859 It's not the war. 515 00:34:28.899 --> 00:34:29.759 It's not the media. 516 00:34:29.799 --> 00:34:31.039 Not MAGA infighting. 517 00:34:31.239 --> 00:34:33.040 Those are small little things. 518 00:34:34.040 --> 00:34:35.060 It's themselves. 519 00:34:36.581 --> 00:34:41.942 We are the party that wins arguments and loses elections because we have a strategy problem. 520 00:34:43.143 --> 00:34:46.063 Strategy problem is the only kind of problem you can actually fix. 521 00:34:47.484 --> 00:34:49.004 But only if you're willing to. 522 00:34:49.925 --> 00:34:50.965 That is the verdict. 523 00:34:52.213 --> 00:34:57.434 So when you step back and look at all of this, blue state policies made life unlivable. 524 00:34:58.175 --> 00:35:00.115 Destruction helped progressives. 525 00:35:00.795 --> 00:35:05.797 People left, carried 30 years of political identity in the same box as the furniture. 526 00:35:06.797 --> 00:35:07.297 They moved. 527 00:35:07.897 --> 00:35:12.919 They landed in the suburbs that decided the margins, that decided the states, that decided the map. 528 00:35:14.099 --> 00:35:16.860 And the Republican Party looked at all of it and called it good news. 529 00:35:17.800 --> 00:35:20.601 At that point, it stops being surprising. 530 00:35:21.607 --> 00:35:23.768 This is why Republicans are going to lose seats. 531 00:35:23.848 --> 00:35:24.509 They should win. 532 00:35:25.109 --> 00:35:26.169 It's not fraud. 533 00:35:26.470 --> 00:35:27.890 It's not conspiracy. 534 00:35:27.930 --> 00:35:29.211 It's not a mystery. 535 00:35:29.291 --> 00:35:30.532 Nobody can explain. 536 00:35:32.073 --> 00:35:32.713 It's math. 537 00:35:33.513 --> 00:35:35.795 It's demography and behavior. 538 00:35:36.475 --> 00:35:43.759 A voter who spent 20 years pulling the lever for progressive candidates does not become a Republican the moment they cross the Nevada state line. 539 00:35:44.719 --> 00:35:46.961 No, they become a persuadable voter. 540 00:35:48.521 --> 00:35:50.643 But

guess what persuadable voters require? 541 00:35:51.468 --> 00:35:52.249 Persuasion! 542 00:35:53.250 --> 00:35:54.671 Which requires showing up. 543 00:35:55.452 --> 00:35:59.716 Which, apparently, is the most controversial thing I have said tonight. 544 00:36:00.677 --> 00:36:03.360 This is already baked into this election. 545 00:36:03.800 --> 00:36:04.981 Registrations happened. 546 00:36:05.301 --> 00:36:06.503 Relocations happened. 547 00:36:06.763 --> 00:36:07.864 Precincts shifted. 548 00:36:08.424 --> 00:36:12.228 The conditions that produced 2020 and 2022 did not disappear. 549 00:36:12.849 --> 00:36:13.730 They compounded. 550 00:36:15.475 --> 00:36:20.499 The party that refuses to study them is going to be shocked again on election night. 551 00:36:20.719 --> 00:36:25.462 While the consultants sit and explain it was actually a very complicated environment. 552 00:36:26.243 --> 00:36:26.383 No. 553 00:36:27.144 --> 00:36:28.024 The map changed. 554 00:36:28.044 --> 00:36:28.985 The voters changed. 555 00:36:29.025 --> 00:36:29.926 The behavior didn't. 556 00:36:29.966 --> 00:36:30.686 You did nothing. 557 00:36:31.307 --> 00:36:31.687 That's it. 558 00:36:32.268 --> 00:36:34.970 That is the whole argument. 559 00:36:35.010 --> 00:36:37.271 700,000 people moved into Maricopa County. 560 00:36:38.072 --> 00:36:41.134 The Republican Party sent them a fundraising email. 561 00:36:41.715 --> 00:36:41.975 That's it. 562 00:36:43.216 --> 00:36:46.477 $25 suggested donation countdown timer. 563 00:36:46.977 --> 00:36:59.761 If Republicans don't understand this, if they keep assuming voters will figure it out, if they keep running the same playbook in a fundamentally different electorate, they're going to keep losing easy, winnable races. 564 00:37:01.001 --> 00:37:05.683 And the morning after, the consultants will be on television explaining why it was complicated Karl Rove. 565 00:37:06.463 --> 00:37:07.043 Wrong again. 566 00:37:07.263 --> 00:37:07.743 Paid again. 567 00:37:10.555 --> 00:37:12.938 That's the most reliable cycle in American politics. 568 00:37:13.699 --> 00:37:15.861 You don't lose because your voters disappeared. 569 00:37:16.943 --> 00:37:19.706 You lose because the other side showed up somewhere new. 570 00:37:19.926 --> 00:37:22.550 It's very, it's very clear. 571 00:37:23.481 --> 00:37:27.143 that these policies didn't start as intentional destructive policies. 572 00:37:27.163 --> 00:37:34.587 But the Democrats for years have always tried to destroy stuff to force people in a corner to feel like they've tried all the other options before they've left. 573 00:37:34.947 --> 00:37:38.669 And when they realized that when people left, they didn't change their voting patterns. 574 00:37:38.909 --> 00:37:48.034 They took advantage of it and pressed the gas during COVID on all these progressive policies to increase the destruction, to increase the outward migration, 575 00:37:53.157 --> 00:37:58.178 Red spaces while maintaining

all of their supermajorities and political power in the other states. 576 00:37:58.399 --> 00:38:00.239 It's actually genius. 577 00:38:01.499 --> 00:38:03.760 Evil genius, but genius nonetheless. 578 00:38:03.940 --> 00:38:07.081 Simply the other side showed up somewhere new, and we weren't there. 579 00:38:07.101 --> 00:38:10.242 Republicans were at dinner with the consultant. 580 00:38:10.262 --> 00:38:14.883 You charged $15,000 a month for the privilege of losing Maricopa. 581 00:38:15.903 --> 00:38:16.904 This isn't a warning. 582 00:38:16.964 --> 00:38:17.984 This is a trajectory. 583 00:38:18.764 --> 00:38:20.905 Trajectories do not fix themselves. 584 00:38:22.068 --> 00:38:27.230 Quietly, one subdivision at a time until Texas is competitive and everyone acts shocked. 585 00:38:28.491 --> 00:38:31.772 And nobody remembers that we told them exactly how it happened. 586 00:38:33.273 --> 00:38:36.774 On a Monday, on this show, before it was too late. 587 00:38:37.034 --> 00:38:43.297 Ronald Reagan, former actor, former Democrat, recent conservative, running for governor of California. 588 00:38:44.577 --> 00:38:46.058 Nobody took him seriously. 589 00:38:46.718 --> 00:38:53.103 Sacramento thought it was a novelty campaign, a celebrity with ideas, charming but irrelevant. 590 00:38:53.984 --> 00:38:56.265 He won by almost a million votes. 591 00:38:57.106 --> 00:38:58.727 Here's the part nobody tells. 592 00:38:59.708 --> 00:39:02.750 Reagan didn't win because California agreed with him. 593 00:39:03.551 --> 00:39:08.855 He won because he showed up to talk to people no Republican candidate had ever bothered with. 594 00:39:10.196 --> 00:39:15.400 Union households, blue-collar Democrats, people who voted for LBJ two years earlier. 595 00:39:16.152 --> 00:39:24.496 He didn't write them off, didn't assume they were lost like we do, didn't send them a fundraising email with a countdown timer. 596 00:39:25.257 --> 00:39:32.200 He showed up, made the argument in their living rooms, at their kitchen tables, in their language. 597 00:39:33.061 --> 00:39:35.162 Those voters had a name 20 years later. 598 00:39:36.062 --> 00:39:37.223 Reagan Democrats. 599 00:39:38.243 --> 00:39:41.785 They existed because Reagan competed for them. 600 00:39:43.338 --> 00:39:49.079 The transplant sitting in Maricopa right now, the ones who left California because California broke its promises. 601 00:39:49.900 --> 00:39:52.180 They are the Reagan Democrats of this moment. 602 00:39:53.541 --> 00:39:57.241 Totally reachable, totally persuadable, totally waiting. 603 00:39:58.162 --> 00:40:00.402 Reagan would have already knocked on the door. 604 00:40:01.342 --> 00:40:03.263 The question is whether anyone else will. 605 00:40:04.903 --> 00:40:07.024 And one ask before we go tonight. 606 00:40:07.925 --> 00:40:09.967 The algorithm does not like this show. 607 00:40:10.527 --> 00:40:12.549 The platforms would rather you not hear this. 608 00:40:13.049 --> 00:40:14.731 They make you work to find us. 609 00:40:15.492 --> 00:40:17.794 So be the algorithm for me, if you don't mind. 610 00:40:18.494 --> 00:40:23.118 If this landed, share it right now before the notification pulls you somewhere else. 611 00:40:23.779 --> 00:40:27.482 Send it to the Republican who thinks 2024 fixed everything. 612 00:40:28.143 --> 00:40:31.566 Send it to the conservative who thinks Election Day is the whole job. 613 00:40:32.486 --> 00:40:34.888 Election Day is one day of the job. 614 00:40:35.721 --> 00:40:38.122 And as always, if you see us, share us. 615 00:40:38.522 --> 00:40:44.404 We're on Rumble, Apple, Spotify, Substack, X, Instagram, all under the banner Common Sense with Chad Law. 616 00:40:44.784 --> 00:40:46.245 Find it, follow it, share it. 617 00:40:46.965 --> 00:40:49.926 And never forget the phone number, 252-CHAD-LAW, my name. 618 00:40:50.246 --> 00:40:53.367 Call, text, send me your county's voter registration numbers. 619 00:40:53.747 --> 00:40:57.589 Send me the name of your local Republican chair who hasn't knocked a door since 2008. 620 00:40:58.569 --> 00:41:00.890 I read them all, unlike the consultant. 621 00:41:01.770 --> 00:41:03.851 Homework, ladies and gentlemen, for the week. 622 00:41:05.182 --> 00:41:09.163 This week, somebody is going to tell you Republicans are in great shape. 623 00:41:09.623 --> 00:41:10.663 Maps favorable. 624 00:41:10.723 --> 00:41:11.803 Momentum's there. 625 00:41:13.083 --> 00:41:16.024 Smile and ask one question for me. 626 00:41:16.804 --> 00:41:19.245 What's the doorknock program in Maricopa County? 627 00:41:20.185 --> 00:41:21.205 Watch their face. 628 00:41:21.865 --> 00:41:25.666 That blank, slightly irritated, who are you to ask face? 629 00:41:26.106 --> 00:41:27.186 I get that face a lot. 630 00:41:28.386 --> 00:41:32.927 That is the true, honest, and sad reason Republicans will lose races they should win. 631 00:41:34.095 --> 00:41:34.815 I'm Chad Law. 632 00:41:35.395 --> 00:41:39.517 The Constitution is the greatest political document ever written by human hands. 633 00:41:40.097 --> 00:41:42.977 The Republican Party is still capable of being worthy of it. 634 00:41:44.438 --> 00:41:45.878 But worthy requires work. 635 00:41:46.498 --> 00:41:49.259 And work starts the day after the last election. 636 00:41:49.819 --> 00:41:51.520 Not the day before the next one. 637 00:41:52.740 --> 00:41:53.660 The people moved. 638 00:41:54.401 --> 00:41:55.161 They're registered. 639 00:41:55.221 --> 00:41:55.941 They're active. 640 00:41:56.141 --> 00:41:58.982 They're not waiting for you to figure out that they exist. 641 00:42:00.502 --> 00:42:02.143 Ballots are already going out. 642 00:42:03.117 --> 00:42:04.298 The clock is running. 643 00:42:05.099 --> 00:42:05.879 And America? 644 00:42:07.200 --> 00:42:09.102 That was common sense. 645 00:42:09.743 --> 00:42:11.184 It's wonderful. 646 00:42:12.125 --> 00:42:14.607 It's marvelous. 647 00:42:15.467 --> 00:42:19.531 That you should care for me. 648 00:42:20.151 --> 00:42:25.976 Yes, you've made my life so glamorous. 649 00:42:27.117 --> 00:42:29.219 You can't blame me for fear. 650 00:42:32.144 --> 00:42:33.907 Oh, it's wonderful. 651 00:42:35.589 --> 00:42:43.280 It's so marvelous that you should care for me. 652 00:42:43.901 --> 00:42:45.323 It's wonderful. 653 00:42:45.343 --> 00:42:46.644 It's marvelous. 654 00:42:46.985 --> 00:42:47.926 Glorious.