How To Find Value with Tanking Teams | Mon NBA Best Bets の全文書き起こし

the MVP because I think this is interesting. So what I did was I have a little system that put together that tracks all of the odds and gives us week by week information. Every Sunday, it spits out and says, here's what the odds worth this date, so that we can actually compare on a time basis. And so what we're really able to do is we're able to look at where were things a week go before the trade deadline and where are they now. But one of the most interesting ones has nothing to do with the trade deadline, and it does have to do with an injury status because Shae Yost Alexander is going to miss a couple of weeks with an injury, and so as a result, though very surprisingly, I was not expecting much movement on this because she's probably gonna be back in time. This has moved down from minus three sixty five to minus two ten at bet MGM. He's out until probably after All Star. They're probably gonna hold him out. He's missed four games right now. There's three more games before All Star. That's gonna be seven the rest of the way. They have five back to backs. How many is he gonna play, We don't know if he plays, if he misses all of them, he's at twelve so we're still gonna have six games left before he's ineligible for season awards, which is pretty much the only way I would have thought that he was gonna miss this. However, Jim Turvy, here's where he gets kind of interesting. Nikola Yoka just missed sixteen games. He's got two left, that's all he can miss, and then he's then he is also out. 00:04:25 Speaker 3: Of the running. 00:04:27 Speaker 1: There are five more back to backs. He can only miss two. What's interesting, though, is if Shay, if Jokic slides over sixty five, Shae misses all five back to backs coming up after missing the rest until after all Star, that's thirteen miss games. He would play sixty nine games versus Jokic sixty five. I have an operating on the assumption that Shaye would be somewhere in the high seventies, that it would be like, oh, Shay played seven the eight games Yokic played sixty five, and no matter how much better Jokic was, you can't make up that differential that availability, that number of games is too high. But if this slides into Shaye plays seventy or less and Jokic plays sixty five, now all of a sudden, I don't know, but we are getting a discount price on Shay here as well, what's your redown situation? 00:05:24 Speaker 3: And you'll also be getting kind of the order of. 00:05:28 Speaker 4: The injuries, right, Jokic had his injury, came back, and it's gonna be Shay who is whose injury and missing time is more front of mine. So you could almost even that might be worth like a game worth of just like recency bias. 00:05:40 Speaker 3: And then there's the fact we've talked about it on the pod here. 00:05:43 Speaker 4: If if we're wondering if the thunder are gonna be the top seed in the West, they lost these first two games without Shay in generally been like, you know, a good not great team since their incredible start. They have a tough schedule down the stretch now, so the Nuggets also have a tough schedule. 00:05:59 Speaker 3: They're pretty far behind at this point. 00:06:01 Speaker 4: But if we're talking about like a four to five win gap of four to five games played gap, and then the advanced stats as is, I do think it's Shay should be the favorite now. I think the market, annoyingly is priced pretty accurate because I do think, I mean, we have a path to you know, Jokic could miss a couple of games and then that takes him out of it, and then it's really hard I see someone commented Luca Luca's not winning MVP. There's no the Lakers are not that good. Luca has not been playing at the level of those guys. Luca has missed games. Luca's currently hurt. I don't really see any path. I think, if anything, I want like a Wenby because I think this at a really long number. I think Spurs have a chance to be the team that could overtake the Thunder in the West. I just it gets into silly season if she get misses, you know, a lot of games. If we come back from All Star Break and he's not playing that first game, I think we're kind of seeing this as like the Thunder being like, okay, that Hammy's a little tight, like let's let's uh, let's let's really have you, you know, well rested to come back after start break. But if it's a little bit more than that, it gets a silly season really quick. I think the market's right right. I think Shay should be the favorite. We I sales think that he will be back off the Alstar break. The Thunder are the most likely team to finish with the one seed. He's likely to be in kind of the low seventies. I think for games played but there there's a lot of ways this can get really weird really fast. 00:07:25 Speaker 3: I don't know. 00:07:26 Speaker 5: I mean, I think that we're assuming right like if he like the argument that Matt kind of pitched, it assumes that he misses basically as many games as you would as many games as like possible, almost like under the current construct. And honestly, I think the point about the record that you were kind of bringing up Jim in terms of Oklahoma City kind of lends itself to say, I don't know if they're good enough right now to just have that luxury of not playing him as much as you need to, because. 00:07:55 Speaker 3: They're only three games up. 00:07:57 Speaker 5: In the lost column on the Spurs, who have just been absolutely rolling, and the Spurs are also like another team very young, they keep getting better, like they just keep getting better. And the Spurs we're dealing with a variety of different injuries to start the season. So I don't know to what extent Oklahoma City can really afford to necessarily sit Shay out every back to back going down the stretch. The other thing is, to me, I think that this I'm like kind of guessing a little bit here, but I think that this injury and like a lot of these injuries that are popping up before the All Star Break are just we're gonna just

keep you out because we can basically give you an extra week for free because of the All Star Break, and we also don't really want you playing in the All Star Game. 00:08:44 Speaker 3: Here's the ticket to not do that. 00:08:46 Speaker 5: So, like I do think there's maybe like a little bit more of that as opposed to this is a serious injury. It's like we can functionally give you a two like two and a half week vacation in the middle of the season, be ready for the rest of the year. And like that's more the way that I kind of read it. The thing with Jokic, as good as he is, I think that Denver and Matt You're obviously on the pulse of Denver more. But to me it feels more like they know that what they have is really good, but they also know that they just need to be healthy getting into the postseason and then they don't they'll just win. 00:09:20 Speaker 3: But I don't know, like the. 00:09:22 Speaker 1: Problem is they know that, but like their players don't really care what they think. A good note of this is like Aaron Gordon got hurt twice on the second night of a back to back. He played in both those games and got hurt twice. Peyton Watson, who has had to take on an incredible load offensively given how young he is, hurt his hamstring on the second night of a back to back. Jamal Murray has played on the second night of a back to back. Joger just got back minute in the sprain and played on the second night of a back to back. These guys will not listen and sit. Yeah, they just keep playing through it, and I do. It's insane, and it's the problem is that compounds itself because here's what happens. Jokers out, Oh well, I gotta play jokers out, so I gotta you know, I gotta play big fellows. I gotta be there for him. Then jokers in, Oh well, if jokers playing on playing, it doesn't matter how hard I am, I'm playing. Jokers playing on playing. 00:10:36 Speaker 5: Like I mean, it was. It was nuts. Like the game that the game that they lost against the Knicks. They could have just said we're just not gonna really dry, like we're just not gonna try here the Knicks team like punt it. They wound up playing in the fucking overtime and then Jokic goes way beyond whatever minutes and you lose. 00:10:55 Speaker 1: And you lose, like it's just it makes so they lost three ways in that game. Yeah, he somehow lost three times in one game. 00:11:03 Speaker 3: Yeah, So. 00:11:07 Speaker 1: I think that interesting question is like okay with Joker, and I do think there are mixed There are mixed answers if you ask anybody. The official line from everybody is like, come on, Joker doesn't care about awards. Then there are people that are like a little bit more honest on the on the periphery, who are who whose opinion is like he cares a little Yeah, and he's a little annoyed about last year when he thought that he played one of the best seasons of his career and Shaye won it. 00:11:38 Speaker 3: I do it. 00:11:38 Speaker 1: Here's the here's the deal. Mis two ten sixty

seven percent implied. This is really the question. Are the odds there's a This is a multi layer question sixty seven percent for Shay assumes that he plays enough games more than you'll because Jim, I do want to ask you this, well, Joe, actually I'll ask you this if the gap between these two is less than six games. I personally am like, how the hell are you going to vote for anybody but Nicola jokicch look at the numbers. There's no way to do it. I just don't think you can do I don't care. I love EPM. You can't. 00:12:17 Speaker 3: You can't. 00:12:17 Speaker 1: I mean you can't. 00:12:19 Speaker 5: Only I think only way you could. I don't know what the I'm not sure what the schedule is this year, but I know that they still have what three more games head to head left that like, and I think one of them I'm just kind of skimming right now. One of them is in March. Another one, Oh well, here's the problem. There's an April tenth game that's between these two teams, right, and like you already know how that can go, Like it's so stupid, but it's just especially. 00:12:48 Speaker 1: If convincingly he was the best player on the floor by far. 00:12:52 Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's like, I know they are out of mind at this point. Yeah. 00:12:57 Speaker 5: So they have a February twenty seven, a mark I Febry twenty seven in Oklahoma City, March ninth in Oklahoma City, and then they have April ten in Denver, and presumably if Oklahoma City is rolling, that game probably doesn't mean anything to them. 00:13:12 Speaker 3: But are they going to be rolling? 00:13:14 Speaker 5: They're like, they're like, at that point, there's only like one game left in the season, so it's like they might just be ahead enough that it doesn't matter, you know what I mean. 00:13:22 Speaker 3: So it's like even if they're not rolling, but if they have enough. 00:13:25 Speaker 4: Of a lead, I almost feel that though doesn't hurt Shade like the fully we didn't even try. 00:13:31 Speaker 3: It's like, what you don't want that loose? Yes, I agree. 00:13:36 Speaker 5: So it's like the games that they've got are soon and they're both in Oklahoma City, and she already won the first one in Denver. Like if they're at that point of the season two where your MVP candidate can sit because you locked up the one seed, like that, that feels more compelling. It's not as much of like the embiid ducking fit conversation because they only play like once a year or twice a year, like in the middle of the season. They're not usually stacked at the end of the year. Here, it's like, well, I don't know. 00:14:07 Speaker 1: It does kill me that the Nuggets doing well without Yoka is gonna stick with some voters. It really shouldn't it will. 00:14:13 Speaker 3: And under zero and two with Shade. 00:14:16 Speaker 1: That's like, that's one that I really just like want to get them in a room and be like, let's really logic this out, guys, Like. 00:14:22 Speaker 3: Let's live on those games despite him being at.

00:14:25 Speaker 1: Yeah, like they beat the Celtics and Sixers on the road, and they beat the Celtic the Sixers with no starters playing, Like you really want to index on those games? Somebody asked us in the chat, and I do think it's an interesting one. Look, sixty seven percent, I think a good question is this, does the sixty seven percent implied for Shade? Does it? Let's remove Joker from the conversation, which I don't think you can, but let's remove him from the conversation and let's go to just is sixty seven percent implied the odds of him going over sixty five games played and being eligible Because you mentioned like the win losses with the Spurs. Guess who's tied in the lost column with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Yeah, the Detroit Pistons. 00:15:13 Speaker 4: Okaid, is I haven't look right now, he's. 00:15:16 Speaker 3: A far shout like statistically right, yeah. 00:15:18 Speaker 1: He doesn't. He doesn't get there on any of the metrics. 00:15:21 Speaker 3: He's just somebody cares, like nobody cares what Detroit is doing because they're just like the. 00:15:26 Speaker 1: All right, all right, this is this is this is a Knicks pod talk and that's cute. 00:15:31 Speaker 3: No, but I mean it's it's the same thing. 00:15:33 Speaker 5: I would say, basically the same thing if it was Brunts and like if the Knicks with the one seed, like nobody cares. It's like the East is just not as good as the West is. 00:15:42 Speaker 3: You don't say you. 00:15:43 Speaker 1: Don't think any Eastern Conference player can win MVP. 00:15:47 Speaker 5: No, unless like everybody in the Western Conference dies, like I think you need like in. 00:15:52 Speaker 1: The West, joker let's say joke. This is a far cry, right, Yeah, let's say Jokers ineligible and Shade is ineligible. 00:16:00 Speaker 3: I think that people would go. 00:16:02 Speaker 5: People would try to give it to Luca, and they would try to give it to Wemby, and then I think you start. 00:16:07 Speaker 3: Look out that. 00:16:08 Speaker 1: Yeah, we would have an extremely split vote. That's what we have. I think. 00:16:12 Speaker 5: I think it depends on the way the standings kind of shake out, But like that, I think then you would have whoever was the one seed in the East. People might coalesce around their star. But even then I think you're gonna get the Boston media is gonna push Jalen Brown, and then the New York media is gonna push bruntson, and you're gonna have more of a split because neither is gonna be. 00:16:32 Speaker 3: Like, oh, it should be your guy. 00:16:33 Speaker 5: They're gonna say, well, like our cases are all the same, like it should be our guy. 00:16:37 Speaker 1: This is like I feel like, I feel like this is like a Jurassic Park where Ian Alkholm Jack Goblum's character is going over the sequence. God creates Man, God destroys, God creates, God craves dinosaurs, God destroys dinosaurs, God creates man, Man destroys God. And then at the end of it is like dinosaur eats man, LaMelo Ball wins Envy. 00:17:01 Speaker 3: That's like it's right there, It's right there, the. 00:17:04 Speaker 1: End result of this. But I really wish the markets would open. I'm hoping that you have to all Star break for all NBA. By the way, because this is just the random aside. I will bet Jamal Murray high high for yes, for all NBA. I think Jamal Murray has legitimately been the ninth best player in the NBA this season, So all right, interesting, So I don't think we have a bet there. Jim thinks the market is priced appropriately. I think it's probably a little bit of value on Shay because you're getting a discount, like if you haven't gotten in on Shaw yet and like you took long shots. I don't think this is a bad place to hedge out. 00:17:34 Speaker 4: I would I would do. I don't think it's gonna move between now and All Star. In fact, if anything, it might get a little bit shorter even and then come back for that first game because I agree that I think that's what they're doing, but I just really want to see it and then and then make the move. 00:17:48 Speaker 1: Yeah, uh okay, And now it is time four getting there, waiting, waiting, trying to pull up, trying to find thing there no Turveys how intrigue. Every every week Jim Turvey has talked about how he is. He's like, I'm intrigued by this. I'm intrigued by that. You know who's got me intrigued? And so this is I think we're just gonna have this as a recurring segment of Jim Turvey's House of Intrigue, and this week's House of Intrigue involved tanking, which I have been making lots of New Friends in Utah about on Twitter, Jim, you gave me a number of teams that based off of the information you think there's value on. Why don't you set up kind of what the research you that you kind of single down and then we'll kind of talk about the methodology here. 00:18:44 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:18:44 Speaker 4: I picked out six teams that to me, very specifically, are like the the big tankers in the NBA the rest of the season here, and I think that one comes with a bullet. I think the Washington Wizards are really the worst team and clearly leaning into the tank. Second to me on that list, sorry, get this up here. Second on that list being the Pacers you talked about right after the deadline you got the under on the all win total. I think they're very content to be losing. They have to lose to keep that pick they just sent out. Three is the Nets. They're kind of in the tier of just like very bad, but like aren't doing some of the shenanigans we see the other teams do. Four as the Kings, they're starting to play their young players, which is like a theoretical sign that they're tanking, but their young players are actually kind of fun. 00:19:32 Speaker 3: We'll talk about them. 00:19:34 Speaker 4: The Grizzlies, I think are the sneaky team here and that they are really kind of pulling the plug. It looks like they might even end up as like the third best team to hit up in these tank offs, and then the Jazz

are here as like a who the hell knows. I'm convinced that we were talking about them, the three of us are talking about them. There's like a theory in poker nowadays that like, because the poker is like, you know, optimal play has been solved that like if you go in with a random number generator, you can actually like if that's like a better play for poker, because it's like it's a game where there's people reading and stuff. 00:20:09 Speaker 3: I think the Jazz are using a random number generator to make. 00:20:12 Speaker 4: Decisions on like how like minutes and when to play guys and stuff because there's no. 00:20:16 Speaker 3: Rhyme or reason. I think that's very purposeful. 00:20:18 Speaker 4: They're trying to throw off the NBA in terms of being able to find them and stuff because they know they have like Soron's eye on them, and so they're doing stuff where they will play guys thirty minutes some nights and win a game and then the other nights they'll take them out in the fourth quarter and then they'll do then they'll do injury stuff, but then the guys are back. You just can't follow this team. But I do think that they belong in the mix of if we're looking at six teams that you want on your schedule down the stretch, they do belong there. So what I did was, do you want to hop in real quick before I say I didn't. 00:20:49 Speaker 1: A couple of things on the Wizards, who I know, I understand where you're coming from. I will say that they sat everybody yesterday or the previous game because and it it's clear the game was a high leverage tank point they did they did start like Keishawn George and folks versus the Heat today. They just played an all bench lineup in the second quarter. That probably doing that. 00:21:12 Speaker 4: A couple of games because their live unders aren't bad like it. They'll start those guys and then they'll they'll bench them. 00:21:18 Speaker 1: I don't I don't have a clear identity of like, the only thing I'm not trying to do this is not copying for my Wizards bets. I will just say I'm not entirely sure that Washington is gonna hard, hard tank the rest of the way versus Utah has done some absolutely reprehensible stuff. 00:21:37 Speaker 3: But Utah's roster is like ten times better than Washington. 00:21:40 Speaker 1: That's the thing. A lot of argument I've gotten into is I'm just trying to explain, like, you guys could you guys could win games, and you have the good players that could help you win the game active and then sometimes play them and then decrease as the game goes on. That is where I'm like, come on, man, like there's no transparency here. 00:21:58 Speaker 3: The Utah stuff is ridiculou. 00:22:00 Speaker 5: I mean they were beating Orlando, yeah, like in like significantly in the third quarter. The three of their like the three guys what was it, Jaron, Lori and uh I forget who the other one was. Like they were crushing and then they're just like, yeah, we're not gonna play them in the entire fourth court. Like there's just no there's nothing that you can tell me at a Utah that says like this is above board. There's just nothing you could tell me there. Like that seemed like a game that they were basically saying we're gonna play everybody because we think we're gonna lose anyway, and they forgot the magic still kind of suck. And then they were like, oh wait, we might actually win this game. And they're like, Nope, not anymore, Like we're. 00:22:41 Speaker 3: A sneaky big thing. 00:22:42 Speaker 4: There is that Keante George got hurt at half, and I think that might have been like, Okay, now we're pulling the play like. I think they might have been like okay, Like, well, we'll try it with this squad. That was my ref that I did projections uring that day, and I projected them to kind of like be trying minutes wise. And then I think Keanty got hurt and they said, if he's gonna be missing games, we're not gonna be quite good enough to push What are we even pushing for? 00:23:04 Speaker 3: Let's let's take it down. 00:23:05 Speaker 5: Yeah, And I think I saw something I don't remember how exactly it was worded, but it was something about how if teams like mess with the minutes of players in games that or like that, it affects the outcome of the game. I think, all I can try to find it while we're talking, but there's some verbiage I think in the rules that talks about not like they're not. The teams aren't supposed to do that, which is basically exactly what Utah did. And I don't know how you get around I just don't know how you get around it. Honestly, I think you do it, get around it, because then sometimes you do the other. 00:23:39 Speaker 3: That's why I'm avoiding Utah. 00:23:41 Speaker 4: That's like the play right now, because they're they're not making sense, and I think it's purposeful. 00:23:48 Speaker 1: I asked Jim for what did he think that teams with a winning percentage of less than thirty percent after the All Star break versus teams with better than thirty, better than forty, better than fifty, better than sixty, and better than seventy percent? How often did they win? 00:24:05 Speaker 3: Oh, by the way, I did misread. I did. 00:24:07 Speaker 4: I thought you're saying less than thirty, less than forty less. I thought we were going in the other direction. 00:24:11 Speaker 1: But okay, so I will not even include your comments. So I was just said to just kind of share this with you. Better than thirty percent, these teams only win twenty seven percent of the time. It actually goes down for better than forty percent to twenty four percent than twenty one percent for fifty percent. So over five hundred, they win twenty one percent of the time. Those teams below thirty percent win percentage. You get above sixty, it goes down to twenty two and then above seventy percent, even though they are fifty four percent against the spread, they are eighteen percent straight up. The reason I bring up these numbers, and that's a lot of numbers.

The core that I'm trying to get to here is there is an idea. The way that we handicap these things. Jim, this is where I get nervous, is we act like the winning probability is zero when we're especially when we're talking about a limited number. Right, So you're gonna talk about these teams and you're gonna be like, well, they play all these teams x amount of times. I'm like, yeah, but based off of the data that we have, if it's they play those teams ten times, those teams are still gonna win between two and three times, depending on how good they are. So it's that win probability. It's I just want to guard against the idea of well, they're playing all these tanking teams because I see tanking teams win random ass games in March all the time. They're not gonna win most of them. They're gonna they're gonna lose almost all of them, but they are gonna win a few in there. And I think that distinction is important when we start talking about these things. 00:25:40 Speaker 4: No, for sure, this is more it's it's at the margins, right, All these things are at the margins. It's all imply probabilities, like you said, But you'd rather be playing these bad teams that are trying to lose, even though they will win every every you know, one in every five games. It's better than playing teams that are gonna win fifty fifth to make the keys against that sentence. 00:26:02 Speaker 1: So my case against that sentence is that, to me, it depends entirely on what your win profile is. So why don't we start with Portland, because Portland's actually the best argument to have about this. Giving your take for Portland. 00:26:15 Speaker 4: Yeah, so highlighted here to a few teams that were kind of like winners and losers from who gets to play the tanking teams the most down the. 00:26:22 Speaker 3: Stretch Portland Miami, Portland Miami. 00:26:27 Speaker 1: The Cavaliers, yep, the Celtics. No, Celtics are the opposite. 00:26:31 Speaker 4: Celtics are the opposite trying to find where I put all these direct notes and apologies. And then on the flip side of things, it's the Wolves. And then there were two other teams that I don't think screwed in here. But let's start with Portland, because you're right, I do think they're a really interesting team to talk about because they have had a really hard schedule and they've done good against the bad teams and strugglands the good teams, and now they get to play those bad teams. 00:26:57 Speaker 3: So I want to hear your case against Portland. I'm guessing. 00:27:04 Speaker 1: I am putting your notes into here because I actually read them. I actually read because I have respect for you. So here's an interesting one. Portland against bottom ten teams in point differential. This is via clean in the glass are nine and four that is poor, Like nine and four versus the worst teams is not impressive, and they're twenty second in point differential. This has been a spot for me all year. There are certain teams that I want to bet on against that are good against bad teams, and I don't think Portland's good, but like against I want to bet against them against the bad teams and bet on them against the good teams. Portland's awesome versus the top ten teams. They're great to bet against the spread when they're facing the team with the pulse, but they they're inconsistent. They're inherently inconsistent. Now there's still nine and four, but that margin I don't think is high enough to be able to get us too a comfortable place in terms of being able to beat them more with that edge. The other thing to keep in mind with Portland, this is a huge number. So I the way I have come to look at the schedule is entirely different from how most people do. A normal way to look at any schedule for a sports team is who do they play and how good are those teams? Oh, they play a bunch of bad teams, they will win. They play a bunch of good teams, they will lose. I look at it entirely from density schedule and travel because covering this league for long enough, I know that it doesn't really matter how good the opponent is if you're playing a crap team, a middle crap team, not necessarily these teams, because that's the point is where it's tough, like it is close. But if you're playing a bad team. But it's a third and four and you just you got into the you got into the hotel at three am, and you're on a third and four, five and seven, and you got a bunch of guys that are banged up and you're dealing with a shoulder and all of this stuff, and you're just like exhausted. It doesn't really matter, It doesn't help you. Portland's schedule is mostly okay, but there is a warning point. They travel the most miles in the league after All Star by a wide margin, and more time lanes. 00:29:05 Speaker 3: They always travel the most right. Do what they always travel the most right because they're no I think it's. 00:29:11 Speaker 1: There's who has it. It's either Denver or somebody else. But even then, there's different points in the season where Portland doesn't have the highest travel differential, but here they do buy an even wider margin than normal. They are they have six rest advantage games and only two rested disadvantage games, so that's really good, but they're only four and seven straight up when they have rest advantage, so like they haven't been able to transfer these things into actual wins when they have rest advantage. These are all kind of points of trying to put context on it. But I get where you're coming from because you're just like, yeah, but like, all right, they struggled early in the season when these teams were actually trying, but these teams are actively not trying, and I don't really have an answer there. 00:29:53 Speaker 3: Well, and here's the thing I found my notes. 00:29:55 Speaker 4: Apologies for being a little scared there, but for Portland, I didn't end up coming out with bet in part because of some of that and because. 00:30:03 Speaker 3: We don't know about this

anything. 00:30:04 Speaker 4: We didn't We're not gonna touch on mip today, but like that back is starting to look pretty like he came back for two games and had to leave again. That is very troubling, And they don't have any Like I don't want to be betting this. 00:30:16 Speaker 3: To me, A more interesting team is Miami. 00:30:19 Speaker 4: I would love to chat about Miami because they're one of the ones who I did against my bear judgment have a bet coming out of this on But it looks like you're on the flip side of this as well. 00:30:29 Speaker 1: Yeah, So the market here at Calshi, we've got forty five cents. Forty five plus wins is forty forty one cents. That's the one that gym kind of wants. He wants to go over because of how weak their upcoming schedule is. You can talk about that from men. 00:30:42 Speaker 4: Jim, Well, why, Actually my bet would be division. And I know this is like people can dig chasing or whatever, because we have I did Orlando at the beginning of the season, we did Charlotte a couple of weeks ago. We've skipped Atlanta, which is good. That doesn't look like they're Yeah, but Miami right now is plus two forty two win the division. I think that's a pretty interesting bet down the stretch. They have the easiest schedule remaining. They play nine of these tanking teams they play, including today. I guess the Wizards four times. I know, you think the Wizards are, you know, maybe not at the bottom that I have the Wizards as the bottom of that tier. I think, get four games against the Wizards. I mean, we saw what happened today. It was like a forty point win. It's not indicative of you know, it's not a lock to go four and oh, but these are margins that I do think are important. They get, yeah, nine games against those tanking six, five of those at home. It's just a very friendly schedule at the margins. Now Orlando has a pretty friendly schedule as well. But I think that this for me is like, if I'm looking at this, I'm holding my Orlando ticket, I don't mind grabbing this plus two forty. 00:31:50 Speaker 3: On Miami to win the division when it's. 00:31:51 Speaker 4: Pretty close as is, they're kind of it's a by low spot and I think a lot of people saw them as a loser of the trade deadline, but they really kind of just stayed the same In or it was another team that basically did nothing. I think we love that Charlotte number. That Charlotte numbers is already shrunk. They'll have a kind of a big test tomorrow if they can beat Detroit. You know, this is gonna get real interesting here. But Miami's a team. Give me some to talk about them against how they do against bottom tier teams, because I'd be curious, you know, do they profile the team that can take out and make use of this softer schedule. 00:32:22 Speaker 1: Yeah, so there's sixteenth and win percentage versus those bottom ten teams in sixteenth and win percentage and ats differential, they're plus two point nine in spread diff So what this actually means is like when they do handle business, they absolutely kill them, which is most of the time it's kind of mixed results. Most of my stuff has just belt off of I've projected, but like I had them, I haven't projected at forty two point eight and I was super high on Then we get to open the year, we're going to cash on on the win total over which was a breeze. That's gonna be great. But this is to me, is now a time to kind of go back the other way where it's like they did a lot of their work early and the bigger problem is just like uh nol La Roche makes everyone hate themselves by January, just like Noel La Rose, the assistant coach who's running their offense, everyone just wants to die because you're running up and down the floor all the time so fast. They have a lot of interior interior tension because you know, they didn't make the trade for you, honest, they couldn't make the trade. Coil Ware is still in and out in terms of the doghouse, and they don't have like a consistent kind of sense of who's in who's out. Jovich went from a DNP to starting like they they're all over the place, which with where they want to be with this roster, and you throw in on top of that hero's continued injury problems and I know that, like Brian Fitzeka would be like, that's good for them, Like I just want the I need the salary on the floor. 00:33:42 Speaker 3: It's like dead money. 00:33:43 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, That's my biggest thing is I don't I don't want to equate players to cash value. To me, it's more of you have spent X amount of your available resources on this player because you thought that he was going to provide you with that impact or production, and if he is not available, that's just empty. It's just not there. It's like a dead cap space. It's just like you didn't you have less value on the floor because you allocated resources, including a roster spot and minutes that you were expecting to something that isn't there. 00:34:14 Speaker 4: If you were sitting on Orlando preseason division picked up Charlotte a week or two ago, would you touch Miami or are you just like I'll ride those two Orlando and Charlotte. 00:34:25 Speaker 1: It's so tough at plus two forty is it's so tough. I don't know, and I want to be able to I just want to be honest and say I don't know and not make up an answer here. And the reason is Charlotte is the kind of team that I have a really hard time with because any team that is this hot, my like every part of my being is like this is gonna crash, Like there is a crater and a correction at some point, and it's you remember when Charlotte was like the best team in the league for like two months. That was crazy. So anyway, they're five hundred, right, win this division. That's about saying yeah, but I mean more of like they're back to playing five hundred ball over X amount of weeks, right, I don't trust Orlando. 00:35:15 Speaker 5: Yeah, they're gonna get Fronds back presumably, but then that's always a reintegration process, and they weren't

good at the beginning of the year whenever it was healthy. So like obviously now Anthony Black has really stepped forward. But at the same time, it's like you have all these guys that kind of need the ball, like you're really running into an only one ball situation with but you have a team that has like really like five dudes that need the ball. 00:35:44 Speaker 3: Because they all kind of do slightly different things. So I don't know. 00:35:48 Speaker 5: I'm always a little bit of a Orlando hater, and I think i've I've been consistent in this, but I don't. 00:35:56 Speaker 3: I don't know. 00:35:56 Speaker 5: They they should, in theory have the most runway because they have the most talent. 00:36:00 Speaker 1: I think, yeah, I bought no at a bad price for them at fifty two cents for forty five plus wins a few weeks ago, and that's like I'm locked in between. Their preseason opener line was like thirty six and forty five, So I've got like a nine win middle window, which I feel pretty good about. Division I don't. Yeah, I don't have a clear answer right now because it's just like I think Miami's floor is probably higher than the other two. I think Orlando's ceiling is higher, but they have not been able to find it. They just don't have it this year. They do not like I can't even get that. It's usually I would want Orlando's floor where it's like, well, look they may not be great, but they'll be pretty good. And now I'm kind of like, I don't know, man, Like Orlando, there's a lot of nights where it's just like they're bad. They're just bad a lot of nights. Miami is very rarely bad. If they are bad, it's because they are outmatched, like versus Boston, where it's just like they can't compete with that team. And what you're saying is that the schedule is kind of helpful to a team that's got a high floor and their middle of the range between these team teams. But I will say they are not a team that will screw around and lose to a tank job like today, like they will do enough to get past a Washington team. So I get the concept there. And hey, look, I like portfolio plays. You're not gonna find me. As long as you come out ahead, I'm fine with the portfolio play. Talk to me about Cavaliers. 00:37:32 Speaker 4: Yeah, Cleveland, we don't have a We often do a ton here, but they pop as well as you know. They've had seven versus tanking teams, two against Washington, top five easiest schedule on reference in tankaton. We've got to see what Harden looked like. We'll be talking props in a little bit. I thought Jarri Allen looked great. That connection looked really good right off the bat. I think they're a team you almost want to play the ceiling more. The market is just kind of all over it though you've got here, you know Calci fifty plus wins, Yes, seventy five cents. That's the markets. The markets in the market is saying, like what we believe in this Cleveland team. Maybe there's some schedule stuff here as well that the market is is in on. I I just saw they're They're a winner of it. There just isn't a great way to bet it in my opinion. But I definitely I think they could go on to run here. I just don't think I think the market realizes that. 00:38:18 Speaker 1: Yeah, I get it, But actually this MIAs three hundred, I don't really care. Like I think that's a good price. Yeah, Like I think that they should be higher than that, Like I've gotten projected way higher than that. The hardened thing, I don't think disrupts their floor at all. 00:38:31 Speaker 3: I think I think it raises the floor if anything. 00:38:34 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's like Garland, Garland's always Garland's always out. Yeah, And if Donovan miss his time, I would much rather. I think I would way more trust Hardened to run an offense than Garland by himself, with the way his health had been like you put hardened there, you're gonna play at minimum five hundred ball like that. He's just like such a high floor raiser and everybody's gonna, like every reason touch the ball, everybod's gonna eat. So I don't I think their floor is much higher now with Harden. 00:39:03 Speaker 1: You've got wolves on here. I want to kind of like cut that. We'll cut that one because I just want to say, like, today's great. Today's a great example. They're at home versus the Clippers who have had all this trade stuff, and they get stomped. They were the hottest team in basketball two weeks ago. Now that the most miserable team in basketball. They're gonna be fine. They're gonna pull out of it. But like, there's no floor on Minnesota. There's just not. They don't. That's what cost them a top three seed in the last two seasons is they do not care enough, like and people will point that to that being coaching. That's actually it's a that's that's an ant problem is that like. 00:39:38 Speaker 4: And I actually was looking at them as a loser and looking at them as like not a top five seed and maybe framing that in a way that like if they might not mind being that six seed and avoiding, you know, the thunder in the second round and trying to sneak their way through the playoffs that way. 00:39:53 Speaker 1: I think when we start getting the problem is when we start getting because you were kind of talked about betting them as as specific six. Once we get into that, now you're in my territory of like tie breaker. 00:40:02 Speaker 3: Yeah, there's just good it gets. 00:40:04 Speaker 1: So, yeah, Boston is the last one I want to talk about. I think it's interesting you've got some thoughts on Boston as well as maybe being a team that's going to struggle a little bit in this back half of the year. 00:40:17 Speaker 3: Yeah, I have them as a loser. 00:40:19 Speaker 4: They're one of two teams that play only three games against these tanking six, toughest schedule in the East remaining both by Basketball Reference and Tankathon. They've also had like pretty crazy good health this this entire season. And then I know you guys are on the other side of this, But I don't

really love the Vucevich pickup. I think he's gonna potentially hurt the defense a little bit. He had a great first game for them, pretty bad second game. So you see them kind of both sides to that coin already before their game today, you can get them under fifty two and a half wins. 00:40:48 Speaker 3: That just seems really high that I know that the. 00:40:52 Speaker 4: By the you know, advanced net rating and all that has really liked them. I think there's a lot of paths between a tough schedule. They've been really hell healthy. They're integrating a guy who, you know, in the long run, baby Vic, can you know, be a system guy and not really hurt them by I do think there'll be some some pains here and there. So I really like that under fifty two and a half. And then I saw you may note here, Matt on the nixt division price huge that was one of our earlier we gave out that as a Future of the Week earlier that that was a huge win for our next division. Uh that today the Knicks took care of business there and I believe they're now tied. And the Knicks have a decent schedule. But the Boston an Easton concert schedule can only be so tough. 00:41:35 Speaker 3: But Boston's is pretty tough. 00:41:37 Speaker 1: It's brutal because the Knicks are at a high point because they're just playing. They were at a low point and everyone was selling and now they've played amazing basketball. 00:41:46 Speaker 3: Yeah, but. 00:41:50 Speaker 1: I do think probably getting the Knicks as the division winner is probably the way to go, mostly based off of there's actually one more factor here, which is if Tatum comes back, that's such a huge wrench in things. It's Boston's gonna be completely messed up for about a week and a. 00:42:05 Speaker 3: Half, jal except the rest of the season, Like. 00:42:10 Speaker 1: Yeah, they're just gonna they're not gonna know how to do this. 00:42:12 Speaker 5: So and like the Knicks stuff too, everybody's like, oh the Knicks, the Knicks and Knicks, like their bad month was one game under five hundred, Like. 00:42:20 Speaker 3: That was the bad month that was like yeah, I. 00:42:22 Speaker 1: Mean they really, to be fair, they really were shit. 00:42:24 Speaker 5: So they were they were awful, but it was also you know, it's like we knew. It wasn't like super surprising, considering every team post Cup is just ass. 00:42:33 Speaker 1: They're just I don't see. But here's the thing is, like do I think that they are more that or do I think that they're this team that is now elite defensively with Jalen Brunson on the floor. 00:42:42 Speaker 5: Oh no, I don't think that's real, But like who knows. 00:42:47 Speaker 1: Jim also likes the Wizards No. On twenty plus wins at sixty one cents. You can find it on Calshi. I project them right now based off of their numbers at twenty three point five. If you take off four wins of that for just like they're gonna actively try and lose, which is not a lot, then where you're under here. So I don't blame

you at all forgetting in on Wizards No. Twenty plus wins. I just I have some level of hope that they will establish themselves as like, Okay, we're definitely keeping the pick. We're gonna keep the pick. 00:43:20 Speaker 3: And now we can actually play our guys the fourth. 00:43:22 Speaker 1: And now we can actually like try and build some good habits, because I do think this shit is corrosive. 00:43:26 Speaker 4: They actually, I mean, they won three their last six games because they have some spunk to them. 00:43:31 Speaker 1: But I guess it's not just because I have money on them. I genuinely am like guys, like I did all this research. I'm gonna be writing about this like you can fucking here's what's gonna happen. You're gonna draft Cam Boozer and then he's gonna be a ten time All Star and a Western or an Eastern Conference Finals MVP for someone else, not for you, but regardless. A few other bets before we hit best bets for the Monday slate. Victor Wamanyama Defensive Player of the Year. He's back to the favorite gym with fourteen games missed. I think this is another chance to get in on No, I'm sorry, four more games. 00:44:18 Speaker 3: I you're you're braver man than I am. 00:44:19 Speaker 4: That this market has is like you know, the the Hulk and Loki meme, that that is this market. To me this year, I was I had this thing and I was like, I got out flanked over here. Then he came back. I I'm I'm staying away. It does seem like he probably missed a game or two here or there, but like if he doesn't, I think they're gonna want to hand it to him. So it really is like does he miss he has to miss three games, right? 00:44:41 Speaker 1: I think that's one of the problems. Is like with everybody else, it's is he eligible? Yes, Okay? If eligible is like to be eligible as a certain percentage chance, and then if eligible, does he win is a certain percentage chance? And with Victor it's is he eligible yes, okay, one he's winning to him. 00:44:57 Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, and like also too, I think you can put make an argument that like Chet was trying, like they've tried to make Chet like the default other guy, and I don't think Chet has been like I don't know, he hasn't done anything that I'm like, wow, Chet, we need to give him this award, like I'm more likely to go the go Bear route again, like then I would be to go Chet. Like I just feel like I don't I'm not like super impressed with anything, Like there's nothing that I see and I'm like, oh. 00:45:27 Speaker 1: Every voter Chet, every voter I've talked to, and like there are one hundred voters, so it's not like I've talked to everybody. Okay, So I can't give you like the consensus like majority is this, but I can just tell you anecdotically, every voter I've talked to you thinks is Rudy Gobert. Wow, that's how good he's been. He's just been like the numbers actually lean towards Chet a little bit in a lot of these instances, but everybody thinks it's it's Rudy. And I think even if Victor slides over the sixty five game mark. If Rudy's got an edge on him by eight games, I think that that could wind up mattering quite a bit. 00:45:59 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think the thing with check I see Jim being sucked back in. What's his number right now? I mean you can get a freak number on that. I think like nine to one at least. 00:46:07 Speaker 1: Yeah, he's hung out in that same spot area. I just don't I think he's a lot closer than the market realizes that. I mean, he's gonna win because Victor woman Yama is gonna win if he's eligible, right, that's one hundred percent because of just like look all the blocks. But like Rudy Gobert is the most impactful defender in the NBA this season. H last one is or real quick on this rackets division is down to plus three sixty. I kind of want to get in on this because this is such a good Bilo spot. Like they're spiraling and they're gonna like there's gonna be massive changes this summer. Their chemistry is terrible, horrible, Like Kevin Durant is pissed off at Albert Shangun Doka is pissed off at Alprin Schangun and reed Shepherd Albert Schangun is pissed off that he's getting like all he's getting it from all angles. It's all bad. They're also better than most teams. They're just are They're just better than most teams. And so like, if San Antonio tails off at all, the Rockets at plus three sixty, that's a really good number I think on that division. 00:47:06 Speaker 4: I mean, it's probably it's a painful feeling by low for sure. 00:47:11 Speaker 5: I would say it's like a Wemby bet too, because like if Wemby gets. 00:47:15 Speaker 1: Hurt, well, here here's a here's like a well, here's like a Here's like a really good way to put it. Think about how disappointing and frustrating and miserable the Rockets season has been, and how glorious and amazing and how everything has gone right for San Antonio. The Rockets are three games back in the lost column. 00:47:31 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's it, three. 00:47:32 Speaker 4: Bye, and by adjusted net rating on Duncson three, Houston's the better team. 00:47:36 Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, that's holding up the offense, which is cratered since Seman Adams went down, because if they do not have offensive rebounds, that offense sucks. 00:47:43 Speaker 3: He's not coming back either, and he's. 00:47:45 Speaker 1: Not coming back. Last one's Lakers. The division moved on the Warriors not getting Yannis. So basically, when the Warriors didn't get Yannis, this thing moved on the deadline and everyone and the market went towards Lakers. Uh, it's minus two hundred now MGM. Even with Luca's injury. He's not expected the miss significant time. He's out Monday, but not going to miss significant time. No on their division is forty two cents. But the more interesting one that I find is the Suns are plus two hundred at bet MGM, and I have them projected a game behind the Los Angeles Lakers. Devin Booker and Jalen Green are both back. Finally, they lost their first game with them, which

is what I would expect is for them to lose the first game when they're integrating new pieces back. This team still has the best chemistry, the best vibes, the best energy, a really good roster. I kind of think this is a good Bilo spot to get in on the Suns. I don't mind if you're not somebody that has entered the market, or if you have a position built on the warrior on the Lakers. Rather, I would take a look at the Suns plus two hundred. 00:48:47 Speaker 3: I like this. 00:48:48 Speaker 5: I think that the Suns seem to like have completely recalibrated. They have a roster full of like dudes that actually want to work together. I feel it's just not you know, I'm not starting to say anything about Kevin Durant, but I think that you just by getting like by moving off of him and recalibrating the roster again around Booker, it feels like it's just a deeper rotation for for everybody involved. So I think they've got a little bit of teeth. And then you get like the Dylan Brooks of it all, as Jim would say, just as I mean, he just is a he's a warrior, but I think he really sets the tempo on a nightly basis where you kind of get into the dregs of the season and like some of the problems that you see with Minnesota, for example, I feel like you don't see that with Phoenix because you have Dylan Brooks as like we're gonna we have to win, like it doesn't matter. 00:49:40 Speaker 4: I was hoping they would pop as a team that plays bad teams a lot because they do great against bad teams. 00:49:44 Speaker 3: I think you summed up perfect, Matt. It's like, if you don't have a position. 00:49:48 Speaker 4: I feel like I'm already like I've already got a lot of Phoenix stuff and fading Lakers a lot, and the Lakers just kind of keep winning, and I'm like, I don't believe it. I think it's gonna flip. But I'm like, I'm so already in that camp that I'm not gonna add to it. But if you don't have any of that yet, I'm with you for sure. 00:50:03 Speaker 1: Lakers floor is a little bit higher than Phoenix's is kind of the problem. I think the average leans looking towards Phoenix. But the Phoenix Suns are more likely to beat good teams than the Lakers, but they're also more likely to lose the bad teams than the Lakers. And the Lakers are just like we are who we are. We're gonna score a lot of points. You could score. If you hit a lot of shots, you can win. If you don't, you're probably gonna lose. That's it. Let's do some best bets for Monday in the Association. Let's start with Joe Delera. Tonight Joe, what's your three star bet of the night. Damn it not me. Not. 00:50:42 Speaker 5: My three star better than night is gonna be on James Harden over seven and a half assists here against the Denver Nuggets. 00:50:49 Speaker 3: I like the spot for Harden. 00:50:51 Speaker 5: I think the seven and a half is a little bit light given what he did in his debut. He had eight dimes against the Kings in a game they had like pretty even the like they won by six, but they were still

pretty under control. I would say the majority of that game he had eight assists on eleven potentials still have passed the ball forty nine times, so I think that that was pretty significant here. 00:51:12 Speaker 3: I like the opportunity against Denver. 00:51:16 Speaker 5: I think that this is a spot where they've kind of given up a pretty big assist games relatively recently. Caid had double doubles in a couple of consecutive games. Luca had a ten assist game recently as well. So I like that, and I also think that it gives the Cavs some other things to look at. I think they probably want to see some more of these minutes where Harden is running the offense. Let Donovan play a little bit off ball, get a couple like a little bit more rest and the fact that Harden can pass to Mitchell to just close out of possessions also great. So I think it's a good opportunity here. Plus the Nuggets have been like relatively weak on the interior towards centers, so I do think it's a good like pick and roll combo with Jared Allen, which we should see plenty of in this matchup as well. So I like, I like Harden to go over the seven and a half. And before he had gotten traded, he had nine assists on seventeen potentials against Denver, basically just right before you got traded anyway. 00:52:14 Speaker 1: Yeah, so Denver doesn't run as much at level coverage anymore. They always had problems with Harden for a variety of reasons. They play more drop now, which is bad. Their biggest weakness is the corner three. Their second biggest weakness is the lob. They don't know how to stop that, Like, they just can't. It's very difficult to stop a lob when your center does not jump. So if he just like sits there and that's all he does, and the valle is the exact same way, So this is a great play. I would bet Jared Allen's been on a tear and they're gonna keep feeding him like I would. I would bet that Harden's gonna get four lobs to Allen alone in this game. They only ran four picking rolls for Harden and his first game versus the Kings King's coverage is a lot bit different though they switch, so that's like entirely different. You're gonna see a lot more opportunities for James Harden to get downhill in this game. I'd expect him to play against valentiunas more and that's an equally bad matchup. Jared Allen is going to smash in this game. And then if they do bring help, if they do manage to bring some help over, which they wont because they don't have Aaron Gordon and they don't have Peyton Watson, They've got no reprotection. Spencer Jones is out with a concussion slash. They don't want to pay him yet until they absolutely have to. They have no forwards, which means that you have guards. This is one of the problems they have. It's Bruce Brown and Jamal Murray trying to guard the dunker spot and the corner. Three. Guess where Harden murders you passing to the law in the corner three. Great play by by Delia. I'm all over this. This is a great play on James Harden over seven

and a half assists Jim Turvy your three star play of the night. 00:53:47 Speaker 3: I'll keep it relatively brief because you guys already made a lot of the case. For me. It is Jared Allen. 00:53:52 Speaker 4: Oh that point, it's a perfect little same game parlay here. I think these will be highly correlated. I don't think it's any surprise that Harden's first game Jared Allen scored twenty nine points. Eleven for twelve is getting spoon fed by hard and there. He also had forty points two games ago. When mobile is out. His usage definitely goes up with mobile out. He's also going to have to play more minutes. It has a spread of I believe one at last I saw caps or favored by one. 00:54:17 Speaker 3: This should be a close game. 00:54:18 Speaker 4: Allen's type of guy whose minutes actually do vary pretty notably in terms of it's a blaw or a close game. I think you should get pretty big minutes with A being a close game B with no mobile, and I think he'll be out there with with James Harding quite a bit, and that that combo is really looking good in game one, So I don't think these fourteen and a halfs are could be around much longer. I think he's gonna be posting some pre nice points totals. 00:54:42 Speaker 3: Here. 00:54:42 Speaker 4: You guys pointed out the interior defense of Denver not the best, So yeah, I think Jared Allen's gona have a really big game. I think it's gonna pair real nicely with that hard and assist, and I think that's a real fun same game parably for you. 00:54:56 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's already fifteen and a half at FANDLE, So if you're live at YouTube dot com, Slash the Action Network goes scouring to find the best odds on Jared Allen. I'm gonna start building the same game parlay because this has got me excited. Now let's go to Joe Dealara for his two and one star plays of the night. 00:55:13 Speaker 5: So my two star play is Isaacacorro under thirteen and a half points plus rebounds. He just went over this against Denver. I specifically actually didn't play it against Denver. I played it against the Raptors game before you at twelve and just shot like perfectly really, but and Denver I didn't want to play it because of some of the things that Matt and I and Jim just talked about in terms of their coverage. Here, this is a matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, who actually do a decent job of limiting, you know, three point opportunities. They're decent. They kind of allow some of the looks in the corner, but overall they also play at like a much slower pace here. The big thing for me with a Coro is while Chicago's dealing with a variety of players either in or out traded, doubtful, whatever, you know, you they did add some other ball dominant, high usage players that are really all trying to kind of carve out their role, I would say, and a lot of them are not going to be super interested in passing the ball to Isaac Occorro. You have Anthony Simon's, Colin Sexton, Jaden Ivy Dillingham, Like, there's all dudes that only care about getting their own and Ocoro is not somebody that can get his own. He's somebody that kind of needs to be fed the basketball and He's not even a great rebounder either, so I like adding the rebounds here for the combo prop his three and a half line. I think you could even play that too at under three and a half rebounds if that's available to you. 00:56:36 Speaker 3: He has only had three. He's really only had more than. 00:56:40 Speaker 5: Two in two of his last eight games so or two of his last ten games. Rather, so I just don't think that there's enough opportunity for Okoro in this Bolls offense. 00:56:52 Speaker 3: And Chicago is also like they're still a little weird. 00:56:55 Speaker 5: I feel like they don't really know which direction they're going in because they always think that they can win the NBA Championship through the ten seed in the play in tournament. And if they're in a competitive game, Okoro we've seen get like bench down the stretch. So but then at the same time, if they're blowing a team out, he's also not somebody that's getting the minutes in the blowout. So I think there's just a lot of ways to have downward trajectory for a Korro. So I like the under thirteen and a half points plus rebounds here, and then for my one star play, I'm on Desmond Bane over eighteen and a half points, you can take twenty plus two if it goes that way. He's just kind of been on a bit of a heater lately. It sit this in seven of ten games, or really eight of ten games on an eighteen and a half averaging twenty point three points per game. I think we're getting a little bit of a discount here because Franz is on the report is questionable. I would read this that Franz is not just not gonna play until after the All Star break. I mean, Orlando has done stupid things with him, like even bothering to play him in Germany when I guess he was just not healthy at all. But at this point, I think it just makes sense just hold him out through the All Star Break and we shouldn't have really any issues here. 00:58:03 Speaker 3: The matchicks Milwaukee, I think is strong. 00:58:06 Speaker 5: He in his only other game against them in his like over the last couple of seasons. 00:58:10 Speaker 3: He had twenty two against them last year. 00:58:12 Speaker 5: But I think that they've been relatively weak to spot up shooters over the course of the entire season, and for Baine, with what his shot profile is, not only can he pull up from three, can also attack you at the rim too. So I think there's plenty of opportunity for Desmond Bain, who has kind of fallen into a better role, I think, in a better usage situation over the. 00:58:32 Speaker 3: Past couple of weeks for Orlando. So I like Desmond Baine to score here. 00:58:38 Speaker 1: The Acora one. I Have'm a little bit nervous about. The Bulls just shoot so many threes. That's their entire game plan. And I will say, like Colin Sexton, I really liked the player that Collins turned into in that first game. He

I watched that because it was him versus the Nuggets. He was like he he just met these guys and like had his arms around them, huddling them up, like getting them organized, and was like they were getting into fights and he's like, hey are getting frustrated with the officials, and he's like, hey, move on, like real like leadership stuff, like a little bit of like a floor general point, like I really liked, Like I'm really collin sected right now. And then Koro just takes so many, so many He's like their leader on corner threes that they have left. It's the Himm and Gershan Yabaceli. Now the nets are gonna switch everything, so that's less of a concern. So I think you're probably safe there because the nets are just not gonna they're not gonna help off, and they're just gonna let you get to the Riven score because they're tanking. 00:59:35 Speaker 3: But yeah, yeah, all. 00:59:38 Speaker 1: Right, Jim Turvey, you're two in your one star. 00:59:42 Speaker 4: Yeah, my two star is Lebron James under twenty two and a half points. Obviously they'll they thought here. I think people would be looking towards the over no Luca, but this is a really tough matchup in the OKC thunder. Obviously no Shade, but pretty much the rest of the teams back that defense is very, very good. And the bigger thing here is that Lebron's usage actually doesn't jump as much as you'd imagine with Luca off, and then Austin Reeves should be seeing his minutes slowly increase. So we saw no Luca. Last game, Lebron went under this number. We saw no Luca a few weeks back, Lebron went under this number. Those were not in matchup nearly as tough as this Oka seed matchup. He's played three games this year without Luca. He did go over it. In the first one he had twenty three, but he's hovering around this number in each of these games. 01:00:30 Speaker 3: And this is easily the toughest matchup of the bunch. 01:00:34 Speaker 4: I think that anytime you can get an under on on a Lebron points prop, you're probably baking in a tiny bit of edge just off of, you know, probably one of the more popular props you're gonna find out there. Lebron amazing at his age, should be doing what he's doing, but the scoring just isn't quite there. A really tough matchup. I'm with the under on that, and then final one one star, I'm going with another under. I'm going to mar DeRozan. We can actually this I was guessing it was be twenty three and a half PR. We even got twenty four and a half pri so this is this is excellent. 01:01:04 Speaker 3: We can go with the under. I saw the chat shouting out Nick Clifford. 01:01:08 Speaker 4: I definitely place in Nick Clifford stuff too, Nick Clifford. 01:01:15 Speaker 3: Those two kind of correlate. 01:01:17 Speaker 4: The Kings have moved towards playing these young guys, who I actually is kind of like a fun young squad. I if I knew for sure that they were going to go all in on it. I might look to bet them in some games eventually against the Pelicans. Here there's just a lot of unknowns on all sides of you know, who's trying and all that. But Demarja Rosen is one of these guys who has lost big minutes in a lot of these games. And if you if you scroll through his minutes log, it's kind of all over the place. But he's got games with twenty minutes, eighteen minutes, eighteen minutes, even if he gets that thirty range. I mean, he was there last game. He went well under this. He had a very bad shooting game. He went two for twelve from two. You won't see that often from Derozen. But the bigger point being here was Sacer. I know that they're just kind of moving away from these older guys being the point of focus, which they should have done a long time ago. 01:02:07 Speaker 3: But hey, they're doing it now. 01:02:08 Speaker 4: Credit to them, partly because they have some pretty interesting young guys. 01:02:11 Speaker 3: It makes it easier to do that pivot. 01:02:13 Speaker 4: When you have some guys like Clifford, like Cardwell, like Raino, like Carter. There's just like a kind of an interesting little squad here. So there's a lot of patsis under. It could be, you know, a bad shooting game, it could be a blowout, it could be given the minutes to the young guys. So my one star is Demart Rosen under twenty four and half piarere. 01:02:36 Speaker 1: Okay. I like those those plays as well. King is definitely going to be plenty of young guys here on. 01:02:42 Speaker 3: Now. 01:02:43 Speaker 1: That's a really sneaky good player. By Jim Turvy, I have a a. I have the same game for us to put together for the Nuggets game. 01:02:51 Speaker 3: Okay. 01:02:53 Speaker 1: Jared Allen over fifteen and a half points, James Harden a plus assists. Thos are both best bets from Jim and Joe. Cavaliers money line. This Nuggets team is probably not They have struggled with Cleveland overall, and they're just not really equipped to deal with the Cavaliers onslaught Jalen Tyson two plus made threes. He is their leader in three point attempts from the corner of this season, and he's shooting forty eight percent from the from three point range from the corner. And then there's this over two thirty five and a half. You're ready for the stat Jim turvy, you're ready for this time, I'm about to drop it on you very when Nikola Jokic plays this season and Aaron Gordon does not, So that's that's as simple as it is. Jokic plays, ag does not. The over is twenty and four. 01:03:43 Speaker 3: Wow, that's good. 01:03:47 Speaker 1: Twenty and four when the Jokic plays and Aaron Gordon does not. And if you're like why, the answer is Aaron knows how to cover for yoke, and so he knows how to direct the other guys to be like, you got to shrink in here. You can't like, Yoke's not gonna come that wide. You get to shrink in here, or you've gotta be able to play it. He knows how to He knows the tendencies. He's played so much with Nicola that he knows how to cover for those kind of things. Twenty and four is the over number. 01:04:19 Speaker 5: This is. 01:04:19 Speaker 3: This is gonna be a pretty good number too. 01:04:22 Speaker 1: If you thirty five and a half. 01:04:24 Speaker 3: Or sorry, what's the same game, parla, what does it come out to? 01:04:28 Speaker 1: This is a five five legger, but it's all correlated. We're at eight ninety eight or about nine. 01:04:34 Speaker 3: To one, all right, I don't hate that at all. I'm gonna hit that. 01:04:39 Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at HB Basketball'm gonnahit that through Playbook, which is our AI bot. That will actually if you give it an image of a bet that you want, it will just pull it in there. So whether you pull it from the Action NETWORKAP or anywhere from an article, if you just like feed that to it, it's gonna be like here you go, and they'll shop it out for you to find the best odds to use that at Playbook. That's gonna to do have for best bad Jim Turvey's at Turvy Bats and at Roto Grinders. Joe de Lera's at the Cash of that podcast at Joe de Lera. David Payne is our esteem producer who's done such great work on NFL this season. So a big applaud or David for making it through football season. Now you just gotta deal with Now, you just got to deal with us adding another nine buckets here Slate because we are, by the way, after All Star A not this coming week, but then the week after, we are adding a Friday show for Buckets live on Friday nights. Thanks for hanging out with in the chat. Make sure you give us a like and subscribe. Let's know that you like the show. Hit me up at HB Basketball for Suly. The folks that have already reached out and told me that they like the show helps me out a lot. You guys have yourselves a great week. We'll see you guys doing tomorrow night eleven Eastern or live buckets until next time. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 01:05:59 Speaker 2: If you are someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler