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00:00:12 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington Broadcast Center. 00:00:18 Speaker 2: Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty. 00:00:20 Speaker 3: Armstrong and Getty. And now, here's Armstrong and Getty. 00:00:33 Speaker 4: El-Sayed spent the day with progressive Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, pushing their common message of Medicare for all and higher taxes on millionaires and billionaires, all one day after Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic nomination by less than a percentage point to El-Sayed, flipped her endorsement to Republican Mike Rogers over El-Sayed's stance towards Israel. Elsa's campaign says it raised nearly two and a half million dollars yesterday after the Stevens announcement. 00:01:00 Speaker 5: It shouldn't be this hard to pay your taxes and know that that money is going to be spent on you and your kids instead of. 00:01:05 Speaker 3: Dropping bombs on somebody else and their kids. 00:01:10 Speaker 6: Shouldn't be this hard. 00:01:13 Speaker 7: OK, I don't know. Was that him referencing that ad that got so much attention? I mean, in that ad, they specifically talk about dropping bombs and On other countries is why things are so expensive, and that was. 00:01:28 Speaker 8: Well, yeah, that ad paraphrased his campaign, which is why, I mean, he made like a weak disavowal of it. 00:01:35 Speaker 3: But no, why would he? That's his campaign. 00:01:37 Speaker 7: Wow, that's the one thing I'm staying up for tonight is to watch his acceptance speech if he wins. 00:01:43 Speaker 8: Speaking of Al Sayed, this is brand new. John Fetterman, 45. 00:01:48 Speaker 9: I mean, he's absolutely pro-Iran and Hamas. I mean, he even said he wants to defund the police. And he's in a spiritual union with Hassan Piker, who really thinks that we deserve 9-11. I mean, so overall, I don't get along with communists and socialists and people that hate America or people that pick on women, you know, like El-Sayed. 00:02:16 Speaker 7: They're going to be caucusing together if El-Sayed wins. And have there ever been in either party in my lifetime? A couple of people who would hate each other as much as those two were outside of like a personal grudge. I can't think of maybe back in the day when you had the hardcore racists that were still in the Senate that didn't want black people to get to vote or anything like that. That might be the only other. as far back as you'd have to go to where you got that sort of thing. 00:02:48 Speaker 8: Yeah, Fetterman is going to be a very, very welcome thorn in El-Sayed's side, if indeed El-Sayed wins tonight. An outcome I despise even thinking about. 00:03:00 Speaker 7: Here's the latest from somebody who knows what the private polling is. Mark Halperin on his show today. The private polling is within the margin of error in almost every single one of these polls. Senate races everybody's talking about other than North Carolina. So if you think that a single Senate race that's currently red is going to flip blue and is a sure thing, I would tell you you're wrong. I wouldn't say there's a single one that would surprise me if it stayed red. Not one, not Ohio, not Kansas, not Texas, not Iowa, not Alaska. He didn't mention Michigan. Of course, Michigan's already blue. It's the stain blue. So that would be that. Not one of them would surprise me. In the private polling, they've closed up. And what Republicans are counting on is that the voters in those states today will overcome, in some states, an early vote deficit. 00:03:46 Speaker 3: And Republicans turn out. 00:03:47 Speaker 7: So when it's this close within the margin of error, it could all go one way and it could all go the other way and have, you know, major difference either way. 00:03:55 Speaker 3: Or half and half. 00:03:56 Speaker 6: Or half and half. 00:03:57 Speaker 7: It doesn't tend to go that way a lot, it doesn't seem like. With all these close Trump elections, And I've never quite understood how this happens, but it's amazing how often a whole bunch of different states, counties, districts, whatever, break the same direction. 00:04:13 Speaker 3: Like there's a national mood going on. 00:04:16 Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah. Well, throw the bums out. It's definitely the national mood, but they're all bums, which leaves you in a bit of a spot. Although certainly I prefer free market bums to communist bums. You know, an interesting point about all this is that the number one issue for a lot of people is affordability, inflation. Again, as we pointed out last hour, and I've got this somewhere, but corruption, government corruption, was the number one issue in a recent Fox poll, which I found really, really interesting. 00:04:47 Speaker 7: And were those people polled by Fox thinking about the Trump family or the Biden family? 00:04:53 Speaker 3: Or all of the above. Or maybe both. I think it should be both. 00:04:58 Speaker 8: And the issue of Congress profiting from stock deals has gotten a fair. 00:05:01 Speaker 3: Amount of attention. Yeah, of course it should be both. 00:05:04 Speaker 8: But what's interesting, as Greg Hitt points out, is that anybody hoping for a fix for quote-unquote affordability is going to be disappointed because the factors that– folks, you're about to be more disappointed than anybody. 00:05:20 Speaker 7: That's our job. That's what we come into work for every single day. What can we do to disappoint people today? 00:05:26 Speaker 3: Joy crushing. That's how I see my job. I see joy. I want to crush it. Joy crushing. Nothing makes me angrier than somebody who's joyful. Oh, please. It's got to be a way to bring them down. 00:05:37 Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah. But so what's affecting affordability or what's continuing to stoke inflation a little bit? It's mostly the tariffs, which is not helping. The war against Iran, necessary or not, that sent energy prices higher. and a couple of other things, but it was all done by the

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executive branch. Congress didn't vote on any of it, and their avenues for overturning it are very, very few. And Greg actually goes into the history of Congress's ability to rein in conflicts, if you don't want to call it war, but it's almost hilarious. Its inability to halt the Vietnam War led Congress in 1973 to pass the famous War Powers Resolution requiring that within 60 to 90 days of committing forces to military action, the president either withdraw or obtain congressional authorization. Well, presidents have since responded with various claims of complying without an actual halt to hostilities. Reagan sent Marines to Lebanon in 82 through 84, Navy to escort tankers in the Persian Gulf, 87, 88. Bill Clinton intervened in Kosovo, Barack Obama in Libya, Iraq and Syria, Joe Biden in Iraq and Syria. 00:06:53 Speaker 3: Trump in iran then he. 00:06:55 Speaker 8: Said well no because there's that ceasefire so it reset the clock again and congress is reduced to just sputtering and. 00:07:02 Speaker 7: Stamping their little feet there's no or else in that thing or will. 00:07:06 Speaker 8: Right exactly and and the tariff thing trump has kind of gone way out on a limb on his own and so here's. 00:07:13 Speaker 3: The here's where i crush your hope. 00:07:17 Speaker 8: So what's left redistribution of wealth writing you checks, making you promises, subsidizing things, but because other than millionaires and billionaires, which wouldn't cover a tenth of the tab, they're unwilling to raise taxes, it's all going to be borrowed from the kids and grandkids. 00:07:41 Speaker 3: We had a good run. 00:07:43 Speaker 7: We're going to talk to Lon He Chen coming up here in about... I'm going to ask him about monarchy. Monarchy now. 15, 20 minutes about what starts tonight. which is the presidential race, which is insane, but it's true. It's true, it's true, and it's true. But at least you've got the comfort of. 00:08:03 Speaker 3: Your loyal dog, he says by way of transition. 00:08:07 Speaker 8: Adding years of happiness and health to your dog's life, reversing aging, that's what we're talking about, but not like some sort of magic pill. Rough Greens is nutrition you add to instantly upgrade every meal with all natural vitamins and minerals, plus vitamins. live probiotics, enzymes, omega oils, and antioxidants, and so much more. Yeah, then watch your dog and see what result you get. You should take the Rough Greens Healthy Dog Challenge now. Get a 14-day supply of Rough Greens VitaSmart for just $ 14 with free shipping. That's 14 days, $ 14. It doesn't really get any easier than that. Yeah, look for that shinier coat. I want a shiny coat. I want that coat to be so damn shiny I got to wear sunglasses around my dog, all right? More energy, more enthusiasm, more of the dog you love coming. Get that 14-day supply of Rough Greens VitaStar for just $ 14 with free shipping. 14 days, $ 14. Easy as that. RoughGreens.com. That's R-U-F-F, Greens.com. Use the promo code

Armstrong. Promo code Armstrong, RoughGreens.com. Rough Greens makes any dog food better. 00:09:07 Speaker 6: Woof. 00:09:07 Speaker 7: You mentioned your shiny coat. I was thinking about my hair or lack of it. My oldest is convinced that he has my hair genetically. And that he will be a bald man before he knows it. And he's trying to prepare himself emotionally for that result. Trying to convince him that my life has not been that horrific because of my hair situation. I'm not sure it's held me back in any way whatsoever, actually. 00:09:31 Speaker 3: He's pretty worried about it. 00:09:32 Speaker 8: My dad was bald. Both of my grandfathers were bald. And I just assumed my entire life I would be balding. And it kind of accepted it emotionally and then haven't. So clearly I was adopted. Parents should have shopped another couple of minutes at the orphanage before they picked me, but what are you going to do? 00:09:49 Speaker 3: Buyer beware. 00:09:51 Speaker 7: Shopped at the orphanage. 00:09:56 Speaker 3: Anyway. You have thoughts on the balding conversation? I do. Let your son know that. bald is in right now with the ladies. 00:10:03 Speaker 7: Well, uh, like I said, I don't feel like it's held me back in any way. And yeah, it, since what? The mid nineties. Did Michael, does Michael Jordan get the credit for being the first person to shave their head and like really make it mainstream. But anyway, Um, after it went mainstream to shave your head, if you don't have much hair, it just, it doesn't matter anymore. 00:10:24 Speaker 3: I don't feel it. And being behaired isn't a drawback either. 00:10:27 Speaker 6: So. 00:10:27 Speaker 3: No, no. You can't lose. No, no. 00:10:30 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:10:31 Speaker 3: I don't think it's that big a deal. 00:10:33 Speaker 7: I mean, if you want to have options, I do, I do tell my kids that like my youngest has got serious rock and roll hair and just fantastic hair. And, uh, and where's the thusly? And I, so he's got options. 00:10:44 Speaker 3: I've never had options. 00:10:46 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:10:46 Speaker 3: My option is this egg. Egg is my option. 00:10:48 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:10:50 Speaker 3: And you can't afford eggs because we're bombing the Palestinians. Thanks to the Jews. That's what I hear. 00:10:57 Speaker 2: Wow. 00:11:04 Speaker 3: Where do you go from there? 00:11:05 Speaker 7: They say that the baldness comes from your mom's side. I mean, that's the old saw, right? 00:11:10 Speaker 3: Yeah. Get a new saw. Go down to the Home Depot. 00:11:14 Speaker 7: But all the men in my family look exactly the same. Me, my brother, my dad, his dad, his brothers all look exactly the same. Same hair exactly. So you can say it came from mom, but I don't know. There's three generations there and all going through the man. 00:11:29 Speaker 3: So if your mom's bald, you'll be bald. That's what they claim. That's all bullcrap. I think it is bullcrap. Nobody's sure. She's an egg. Bald as an egg. 00:11:42 Speaker 7: We will talk to Lon He Chen coming up in a little bit about where things are. He's actually one of the smartest political pundits out there. He worked on Rubio's campaign back in the day when Rubio was running against Trump in 2016. So he probably has a soft spot for Rubio. I definitely have a soft spot for Rubio running for president. I hate the fact that he says he won't run if J.D. 00:12:02 Speaker 6: Does. 00:12:03 Speaker 3: Why'd he do that? I'd have to ask Lonnie that. Do you know? Have you had personal conversations? 00:12:07 Speaker 6: I have. 00:12:07 Speaker 3: Yeah, I do. I absolutely have an idea. 00:12:10 Speaker 7: Well, I was going to ask Lonnie if he knows, because he might actually have corresponded, and then he would tell us, sharing their intimate conversations, of course, on the radio show. 00:12:19 Speaker 3: If he doesn't know, I will tell him, because I've figured it out. How handy. So lots on the way. Stay here. 00:12:25 Speaker 2: Armstrong and Getty. The Armstrong and Getty Show. 00:12:38 Speaker 10: The New York City Marathon on Sunday. More than 60,000 runners and among them 90-year-old Marty Granoff who says absolutely everyone. 00:12:45 Speaker 3: Told him he's nuts. But you know what? 00:12:48 Speaker 10: He ran it along with his son and grandson crossing the finish line in 8 hours 26 minutes. He says age has nothing to do with it. 00:12:57 Speaker 3: It has something to do with it, old man, but well done. 90 years old. 00:13:03 Speaker 7: To get Through 26 miles, whether you walked, crawled, or jogged is amazing. 00:13:09 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's astonishing. 00:13:10 Speaker 8: I walk a couple of miles a day, and if I go like an extra mile, I'm tarred. 00:13:16 Speaker 7: I've been running every other day following my close chat GBT regimen for my 10K I'm going to run next year. 00:13:23 Speaker 3: Good man. Excellent. Glad to hear it. 00:13:26 Speaker 7: Maybe when I'm 90, I'll try to run a marathon. 00:13:29 Speaker 3: It's important to have plans. There you go. 00:13:31 Speaker 8: Put it on the calendar. Probably want an alert. like an alarm because it'd be easier to forget. 00:13:37 Speaker 7: Jeez. 00:13:38 Speaker 3: That's right. 00:13:38 Speaker 7: And then the alarm goes off and then I guess I'm supposed to run a marathon. I haven't exercised in 30 years. 00:13:46 Speaker 3: Shoot. 00:13:46 Speaker 8: I should have set the alarm 10 minutes before the event. So when can we expect any results? Well, not, not for a while. I'm looking at the map of when you get election results and. 00:13:59 Speaker 3: It's, it's just, it's so stupid. 00:14:03 Speaker 8: There are, it looks to be a quick count, 10 states that will have the results on election night. 00:14:09 Speaker 3: There are 50 states, Joe. 00:14:12 Speaker 8: There are 10 or so that will have their results on election night. Oddly, they're all in the eastern half geographically. The country more or less Oklahoma kind of pokes over onto the

western half, but I don't know why that is. And then you've got states that will have the results before noon tomorrow, and they are all in the eastern two-thirds of the country. But practically the entire western United States, with the exception of Wyoming and New Mexico and They all make you wait days and days. 00:14:44 Speaker 7: Okay, well, the two that I'm really most interested in, Michigan by far number one, then Texas. 00:14:51 Speaker 3: When's Michigan close their polls? 00:14:53 Speaker 8: Well, I could get into when they close them, but what's more important is when you get the results, and they're both by noon tomorrow. 00:15:00 Speaker 2: What? 00:15:01 Speaker 3: So we might not know if Syed won tonight? That's correct, yeah. 00:15:05 Speaker 8: Unless they do exit polling and projections and stuff like that. I don't know how they release results in Michigan, whether it's district by district. 00:15:11 Speaker 7: If we're going to find out tomorrow, then all the news coverage today is really stupid. Acting like something is happening. It's not even happening today, let alone happening tonight, let alone now. 00:15:26 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:15:27 Speaker 7: Like they've got the clock down in the corner on CNN. Four hours and 35 minutes. until coverage begins coverage of what showing pictures of people in line and discussing the same thing you've discussed for. 00:15:40 Speaker 8: Two months yes so this is inexplicable to me in south cackalack 96 of the votes will be counted by midnight at least that's what happened in 2024 96 in michigan it's 46 now they'll both have her done by tomorrow at noon so that's that's great but Here's. 00:16:03 Speaker 7: A question about South Carolina. Do you think in her heart of hearts, Lindsey Graham's sister wants to win or lose? I'll bet she wants to lose. 00:16:12 Speaker 8: I think she's extremely ambivalent about it. I'll bet she goes back and forth wondering how the hell this ever happened. If she got to choose, she might choose winning. But if she loses, when she gets that word, she is going to have relief. And not that, what usually happens with politicians, just devastating rejection. And what am I going to do with my life now? She's not going to have any of that. 00:16:36 Speaker 3: You are 100% correct, I believe. 00:16:39 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:16:39 Speaker 8: I think if you could probe into her heart of hearts and put a percentage on it, I think she wants to win 51-49. 00:16:46 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:16:50 Speaker 8: Anyway, so one more interesting bit of timeline stuff. In 2022, the House was called eight days after the election. The Senate was called four days after the election. In 2024, the House was called eight days later. The Senate was called at midnight 06 Eastern on election night. 00:17:18 Speaker 3: So, you know. We'll call it the way we see it. 00:17:27 Speaker 7: I'm keeping my eye on El-Sayed's acceptance speech if he wins. 00:17:33 Speaker 8: Why? 00:17:33 Speaker 7: I want to know if he's going to try to moderate it all or if he's going to think, ah, here. 00:17:38 Speaker 3: We go, bitches. 00:17:41 Speaker 8: No, I still, my theory remains no. As a dedicated Islamist, he has a very, very long view. Now, you have pointed out that he doesn't seem willing or able to discipline himself at times. 00:17:52 Speaker 3: He just can't. 00:17:54 Speaker 8: Like that Ross Dutha interview on 60 Minutes. All he had to say was, does Israel, does Palestine have a right to? 00:18:00 Speaker 2: Yes. 00:18:01 Speaker 3: Does Israel have a right to? Yes, of course. Both do. We need a Tuesday. But no, he couldn't. 00:18:06 Speaker 8: No, Israel can only exist if they, and if we see this, he just, he doesn't have the discipline. But if he is reminded by his imam, what's at stake, he'll clamp down and continue to pretend to be what he's been pretending to be. 00:18:22 Speaker 7: One of the best political pundits in America with all the knowledge to back up his punditry. Lon Heachin coming up next. 00:18:29 Speaker 2: Armstrong and Getty. The Armstrong and Getty Show. 00:18:44 Speaker 5: I was talking to my daughter, who's four years old, and I said, honey, we're going to start getting ready for our toy drive. We try to, you know, Give some toys to Toys for Tots. We're now in November getting ready for Christmas. And I'd like you to identify maybe a couple toys you'd like to donate here. So she brings me two of her brother's toys. And I realized that despite my best efforts, ladies and gentlemen, I have apparently raised a Democrat. 00:19:15 Speaker 3: Hey, J.D. 00:19:16 Speaker 7: Vance working the room there. He is currently leading in the polls. You average all the big polls. Who's going to be the nominee for president for Republican? 00:19:26 Speaker 6: J.D. 00:19:26 Speaker 7: Vance is in the lead by quite a bit. On the Democratic side, it's Kamala Harris. 00:19:29 Speaker 3: So it's going to be J.D. 00:19:30 Speaker 7: Vance versus Kamala Harris for 2028 for president, except for these. 00:19:34 Speaker 3: Early polls are always, always wrong. 00:19:38 Speaker 6: Oh, boy. 00:19:38 Speaker 8: To discuss this and much, much more, Lonnie Chen, David and Diane Steffi Fellow in American Public Policy Studies at the Hoover Institution. Lonhee's also the Director of Domestic Policy Studies at Stanford University. 00:19:50 Speaker 3: And he joins us now. Lonhee, how are you, sir? 00:19:52 Speaker 6: I'm doing well. Great to be with you both on Election Day. 00:19:55 Speaker 7: So here's our theory in talking to you, because we're going to have you on tomorrow when we'll actually have some results to talk about. But since we ain't got no results today, thought we thought maybe we'd talk about the presidential election, which I'm told kicks off tonight when the polls close. So let's start with the premise. All the pundits out there that say the race for 2028 for the presidency begins tonight. 00:20:15 Speaker 3: Is that true? 00:20:17 Speaker

6: The race for the 2028 presidency began two years ago. It's just that we'll see it bubble up, you know, beyond the surface tonight. I mean, the funny thing is you interview not you, but the media has interviewed all of these people who are probably going to run and they've had to basically not say they're running. But somehow it becomes acceptable starting tomorrow for them to say they are running. And this stupid charade we play in American politics where, oh, you know, I'm really focused. 00:20:48 Speaker 3: I heard J.B. 00:20:48 Speaker 6: Pritzker, the governor of Illinois. I'm really focused on the people of Illinois. But, you know, at 12 or 1 a.m. on November 4th, my focus will magically change to the American people. 00:20:59 Speaker 3: That's what we're going to hear. 00:21:00 Speaker 6: And it's, you know, any. thinking about this process for years. They've been setting up organization. They've been thinking about who they need to hire. They've been thinking about what contrast they want to draw. This is a multi-year process. And I've been involved in these several times over the years where people are thinking about whether they want to run for president. I will tell you, it does not magically happen the morning after the election, but that's the way that these guys make it seem, which is just idiotic. 00:21:29 Speaker 8: Yeah, first of all, congratulations, Lon. He, in embracing an Armstrong and Getty-esque bluntness, describing. 00:21:36 Speaker 3: The political scene. We need more of that. 00:21:39 Speaker 8: So we played a little audio of J.D. Vance coming back, and J.D. Vance is extremely bright and very, very calculating. And you can see the machinations of him trying to hold together this coalition and make sure that slice of the pie sticks with him, even though they're objectionable to these people over there. 00:21:58 Speaker 3: Is he too. 00:22:00 Speaker 8: What's the phrase? Too smart by half. Is he an overthinker or is that what you need to be in the modern world? 00:22:09 Speaker 6: I think he is. I don't think he's overthinking it. I think he's encountering a very real challenge, which is what happens to Trump's coalition after Trump. And it's not going to be the same coalition for Vice President Vance as it was for Trump. And I think he is trying to determine what that coalition looks like. So I don't think it's overthinking it. I think it's just a massive challenge of what do you do when– such a significant figure, you know, whether you like him or not, President Trump is a significant figure in our politics, maybe the most significant figure in recent history. The question becomes like, well, what do you do, right? As a candidate trying to succeed him, do you go to the exact same playbook? Probably not. So if you have a different playbook, what does that look like? Who are you going after? Who are the gettable voters? Are there voters who didn't vote for Trump that would vote for a Are there voters who voted for Trump who won't vote for J.D. Vance? There, too, I think the answer is yes. So he's got a very challenging task ahead. And I think he's trying to figure that out, as pretty much every other Republican who might run for president is figuring out, which is how do you assemble a coalition? that gets you across the finish line in the way that Donald Trump got across the finish line. It's just not going to be the same. I mean, it's extraordinary what Trump did winning those Rust Belt states that Republicans had not been competitive in for many, many years. Is it going to be that formula or is it going to look completely different? I think that's the big question we've got to answer over the next couple of years. 00:23:37 Speaker 3: Super quick follow up. 00:23:39 Speaker 8: And what I was driving at with the question was, if you look at somebody like Reagan, he was not, you know, yeah, micro-analyzing the various constituencies that make up the Republican or potential Republican voter, he was saying, here's a vision, and I think it's going to work. That's oversimplifying it, but is there room for a visionary or somebody saying, look, I have a plan, let's do this, as opposed to, you know, pandering, essentially. 00:24:07 Speaker 6: Well, this is I mean, again, I think this is going to be the issue because Republicans have not had to be anything other than the party of Trump for the last couple of years. And that's had both good sides and bad sides. The next Republican nominee is absolutely going to have to do exactly what you said, which is articulate a vision for what what are the next four, eight, 12 years look like under Republican governance. And it's not it's not sufficient. It's just not going to be sufficient to say, Well, we're going to we're going to run the Trump playbook over again, whether that's a policy playbook or a political playbook. It's just not going to work. And so that that is going to be the big challenge. And the vice president has the opportunity to rise to that occasion to say, look, here's here's my vision. Here's what I want to do. But I've been saying for a long time, guys, I really believe this. This is going to be a very crowded field in 2028 on the Republican side as well. It's not going to be a coronation. That's not how President Trump wants it. And there's a lot of ambitious people out there who want to raise their profile and want to be in the mix and want to be in the discussion for 2028 and beyond. So I think we're headed into a really disrupted period of politics where, you know, the left's got their own challenges. We can talk about those another time. But on the right, the question, the big question is going to be, what is that next phase of Republican politics looks like? It looked like and I don't think it's going to be, you know, let's run the Trump playbook again, because that was successful for Trump. I'm not sure it's going to be successful for anybody else. 00:25:28 Speaker 7: Yeah, so Chris Christie was

out today saying if the Republicans lose big, you got to hang it around J.D. Vance's neck. And Chris Christie has said he's thinking about running for president. So that was taking a shot at the guy at the top right now. But so you mentioned something a little bit ago. And I did want to get into Marco Rubio because he finishes second or first in all these early polls. And you used to work on his campaign. But you said you've been involved with people who are in that early stage of deciding to run or not. The people who decide not to run. What causes somebody to decide not to run? 00:25:59 Speaker 6: Great question. I think it's a combination of many different things. First of all, all of these people who are thinking about running for president, they are very keen observers of our politics, okay? And they understand what's going on in the political environment probably better than most others because they're in it every day. And I would say the top reason is because they just don't see that they're going to be able to win. And, um, they don't see that there's a whole lot to be gained from being in a process where they don't win. That's not going to apply to everybody. Okay. There's some people who run just because it raises their awareness. 00:26:35 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:26:36 Speaker 6: Well, or I mean, look at Vivek Ramaswamy. 00:26:38 Speaker 3: That's a good example of somebody, right. 00:26:40 Speaker 6: Who, who went from being no, having no political profile to, you know, now being one of the final two contenders for governor of Ohio. So I think for some people, they look at the environment and they would say, you know what? I just don't see this happening for me. I don't see it happening for fill in the blank party. It's it is a tremendous expenditure of time, effort, energy. And it has to be a labor of love when you run for president. 00:27:06 Speaker 7: Is it ever is it ever what they tell the media? You know, I did not put my family through it or anything like that. 00:27:12 Speaker 6: Of course not. I mean, they come up with all sorts of great excuses, usually centering around, well, I really just want to spend time with my kids the next couple of years. And it's like, where were you the last 12 years? But I know. I mean, of course, they're going to come up with an excuse. But that is the raw political calculus. And I've been around that table when that decision was made to basically go, no, go. And you decide, no, we're not going to go. Wow. Because, because, you know, all of the data and all the instincts tell us this is just not, it's not going to be good cycle. And there's a lot of productive ways to spend four years. 00:27:44 Speaker 3: It's going to be hard to let go of. 00:27:46 Speaker 6: Very hard, very hard, but. I mean let's just take someone like Rubio as an example, right? Here's a guy who's got a tremendous– in my view, a tremendous political future ahead. He's a young guy who could afford if he decided he wanted to sit out 2028, could very well afford to do that if that's what he decided to do because he's got the potential whenever he decides to do that, to do the run again. to be extremely formidable. And he's going to make that decision on his terms. And I think that there may be a few others who fall into that category, not a ton. But I think, you know, there are people who can make the decision to sit this one out and potentially be better off. But You know, it's all about what are the data tell us? What are what are the instincts say to the person? And yeah, you know, look, there's personal considerations as well, because running for president is really, really hard. And you've got to be willing to invest all of your time, effort, energy, everything else into it. 00:28:42 Speaker 8: We're talking to the fabulous Lonnie Chen of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. Lonnie, I've got a handful of articles assembled here. I was thinking about talking about this topic at some point today. Colorado's abandoning its fiscal discipline or it's trying to pass ballot measures because it's actually been admirably disciplined fiscally for a long time. Here's the headline panic and anger spread as Europe's great pension covenant covenant unravels. And then from the wall street journal, where did all the fiscal Hawks, why did all the fiscal Hawks go extinct? So my question is, Is fiscal responsibility, sobriety, just pretty much dead at this point? 00:29:28 Speaker 6: Oh, I hope not. But I do think politically the constituency for fiscal discipline is a lot smaller today than it was, you know, let's call it in the late 80s. 2000, you know, the sort of 2010 to 2012 period when the Tea Party was ascended. And that was sort of the top issue in a lot of ways. Interestingly enough, if you ask voters today what their top concerns are. Deficits and fiscal issues still do make the list. But then when you talk about what it would actually take to address those challenges, like, for example, reforming Social Security and Medicare, people don't want it. They're not interested in taking the steps that would actually be needed to curb some of our fiscal challenges. But this, to me, is the single biggest long-run issue we face in America. We have to get this right. And the fact that we did not address it back in 2007, 2008, 2009, when Obama was president, the fact that we didn't get it done then was a big pox on all of our houses. And this only gets harder to deal with. The math does not get easier. But the constituency, guys, is just not there. Politically, it is not popular to sit there and argue for entitlement reform. or to think about how we have a tax code that better make sure that we are raising the right amount of revenue. I mean, these are not discussions people want to have right now. And it's unfortunate. 00:30:50 Speaker 7: So name recognition is huge in these early polls. And often that person doesn't end up even close to the nominee. See Rudy Giuliani or Hillary

Clinton, depending on the year. And but Kamala Harris, is she actually going to put herself through this again? 00:31:05 Speaker 3: I can't even imagine who would advise her to do that. 00:31:10 Speaker 6: I honestly, I have no idea. It does not seem to me to be smart on her part. I just don't think that dog will hunt in 2028. But here's the thing. Sometimes for these political figures, what else are they going to do? I mean, literally, what else are they going to do, right? If they don't run for president, what does their life look like? If they're not involved in that discussion, do they have any kind of political swag at all? And This might be part of her calculus. I don't know, frankly, what's animating it. 00:31:42 Speaker 7: There's that old saying about running for president is like having sex. You don't do it once and then think, well, that was fun. 00:31:47 Speaker 3: No need to do it again. 00:31:48 Speaker 8: It kind of compels you to want to try it again. 00:31:52 Speaker 3: I actually haven't heard that one. 00:31:54 Speaker 6: I actually haven't heard that one. That's pretty good. I think that that she. I just don't know. I don't know if it's a lack of self-awareness. I don't know if it's just like, why not? Why not? Why not give it a shot? Because everyone else is. But when the field is that wide open, as we're going to see in 2028, there is literally no contender that people would look at and say, that's the heir apparent. It's not like on the Republican side where you've got a sitting vice president, probably is going to run or maybe will run. And that looks quite obvious. On the Democratic side, it is wide open. And so she probably thinks, You know, I mean, everybody looks at it and says, why not me? And that's the first question. I mean, if you're advising someone who's thinking about running for president, every conversation starts the same way. Hey, why not me? 00:32:44 Speaker 3: Why not? 00:32:45 Speaker 2: Right. 00:32:46 Speaker 6: And so you end up with a bunch of people running and you're like, who are these people? Well, the reality is that for most of them, it's because they have talked themselves into they have done the opposite of what we talked about earlier. Instead of sitting there and calmly looking at the data and saying, does this make sense? Do we think we're going to win? What does a macro look like? They just say, hey, why not? How else am I going to spend my time? 00:33:06 Speaker 3: Yeah, blah, blah, blah. 00:33:08 Speaker 8: I'm still a Swalwell man, and you can't talk me off of that. 00:33:14 Speaker 6: That's a rough one. That's a rough one. 00:33:17 Speaker 3: Hey, I'm afraid we're up against a break. 00:33:19 Speaker 8: Can't wait to talk to you tomorrow as the dust settles a little bit and we actually know something. 00:33:23 Speaker 3: Lonnie Chen of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Thanks for your time. Always, Lonnie. Thanks a bunch. 00:33:28 Speaker 6: Great talking to you. Yep. 00:33:30 Speaker 8: So our friends at Blue Collar Dollar understand you and your priorities and your lifestyle and the rest of it. This is not high-flying, pretentious, Wall Street-y financial management. This is down-to-earth, American-style, and they want to talk to you. 00:33:45 Speaker 7: So the consultation with Blue Collar Dollar, having a real conversation about your financial future with people who understand your way of life, is complimentary if you've saved $ 250, 000 or more. 00:33:53 Speaker 3: There's no obligation at all. 00:33:56 Speaker 8: A couple of minutes is all it takes to get started with people who understand the value of your time and they make it easy. Just dial pound 250 on your mobile phone and at the prompt say blue-collar-dollar. That's pound 250, then say blue-collar-dollar. These are people who understand you take control of your financial future. 00:34:14 Speaker 3: Blue-collar-dollar. 00:34:15 Speaker 8: Dial pound 250 and say the keywords blue-collar-dollar. 00:34:19 Speaker 1: Armstrong and Getty are not clients of Talon. They are paid endorsers and receive compensation for this endorsement, which creates a financial incentive to promote Talon. Advisory services are offered through Talon, LLC, and SEC-registered investment advisor. Learn more at bluecollardollar.com. 00:34:32 Speaker 2: Armstrong and Getty. The Armstrong and Getty Show. 00:34:46 Speaker 7: Wakelock is getting a zero, and Swift in for the touchdown, Chicago. 00:34:51 Speaker 6: Right back to the line, Swift to the edge. Touchdown, Chicago. 00:34:57 Speaker 7: Toss to Swift, up the guts, touchdown, Chicago. 00:35:01 Speaker 3: He's got three. 00:35:03 Speaker 7: So the Bears are for real, if you're wondering who the better teams are in the NFL. 00:35:09 Speaker 3: Swift is a good name for a football player. It is. It is. 00:35:13 Speaker 7: So we were just talking to Lonnie Chen about how the presidential race really kicks off out in the open, as he pointed out, starting tonight, tomorrow. 00:35:24 Speaker 3: And they all can admit out loud that they want to be president. And that is interesting. 00:35:29 Speaker 7: The people that run that, you're just trying to raise your name ID, which there are some reports. I heard somebody talking about this the other day. I don't know if it's true or not, but that's what Trump was really up to in 16. It's just like make himself even a bigger star, you know. Not really with any political experience have a shot at it, but I don't know if that's true or not. 00:35:48 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:35:49 Speaker 8: Well, and I was thinking as we talked, why the hell would Vivek Ramaswamy want to be the governor of Ohio? Oh, springboard to the White House. 00:35:57 Speaker 2: Oh. 00:35:58 Speaker 3: Has a couple of good years, revives this, that, or the other. 00:36:01 Speaker 7: But to get far enough, that's why I was interested in asking the question about the people who decide not to. I mean, to get far enough that you've got a Lon He Chen that you've made contact with and you have in a conference room somewhere, and I assume you have some money people behind you and a handful other policy whatevers. To get that far and then decide no... Oh, that's got to be rough. I just can't even quite imagine that. 00:36:28 Speaker 8: You know, I've read enough about the mechanics of it, and I know you have, too, that I just think you get enough red and yellow lights from the big donors and the kingmakers and the important governors that. Wait a minute, they really are leaning to the other guy. Wait a minute, he is too, and he is too. 00:36:47 Speaker 3: Well, there's also the... It accumulates. 00:36:49 Speaker 7: I know of one example where this happened. Haley Barber, where is he? Mississippi, Alabama, one of those states down there. He was going to run for president. And one thing you do is you hire an oppo research company to do oppo research on you. Dig up stuff that you probably know, but wonder if other people know. I don't even know how that works. Is it stuff you don't know? 00:37:09 Speaker 6: Anyway. 00:37:10 Speaker 7: Whatever came back in the oppo research, he was like, I can't run. I can't imagine what that is either. They come back with some stuff. Oh, yeah, I forgot that night. I have no idea what it is. 00:37:21 Speaker 8: Well, that's why I'm so open about my clown porn addiction. I want it just out there so it's old news. I'm hanging a lantern on it, as they say. 00:37:29 Speaker 7: Everybody, they're bringing up the same old information that's been out there for many years. 00:37:34 Speaker 3: This, again, clown porn, clown porn, clown porn. Let's talk about affordability. Exactly. 00:37:44 Speaker 8: Speaking of fiscal matters, and Lon, he agreed there's virtually no constituency for fiscal sanity. I'm going to convert you. This is going to be Saul on the road to Damascus next hour. And it's only going to take like 90 seconds. 00:37:58 Speaker 7: I almost asked Lon He this question. Oh, I don't have time to tell you about it. Whether or not Kamala is smart or not. I almost got into that, but I didn't want to put him in that position. 00:38:08 Speaker 2: Armstrong and Getty.

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