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00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the NFL pros week nine reaction show. Thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.
00:00:10
Speaker 2: If you love crazy good quarterback play, week nine was for you. Joe Burrow went off. CJ Stroud went off. Jordan Love went nuclear. There was so... Much good football this week. I said there was a lot of good quarterback play, but we do have to start with Drake May and the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day. This started truly remarkably bad and just got worse from there. And I think what maybe made it worse was the fact that on the same field, at the same time, Jordan Love had one of the performances of the ages, just taking shot after shot. Do you want to just start with Jordan? And we'll get to Drake in a second, just because I think it's more fun to talk about good football.
00:01:02
Speaker 1: Sure.
00:01:02
Speaker 2: Okay.
00:01:03
Speaker 3: You know what?
00:01:04
Speaker 1: I do want to get into Jordan Love really quickly. And I'll start by saying the common stats that we have here for Jordan Love.
00:01:10
Speaker 3: Okay.
00:01:10
Speaker 1: 23 for 29, 372 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, a 153.2 yards. quarterback rating, almost an 80% completion percentage again, but we hear it next-gen stats. Also, we can categorize how quarterbacks play into a lot of different splits. There are so many different splits that we have for quarterbacks, and Brett, I'm looking at all of them right now, and Basically all of them. Jordan Love has a quarterback rating over 100. No matter what situation you put him in, over 10 air yards, over two and a half seconds, deep passive over 20 yards, no blitz, zone coverage, split safety, man coverage, in breaking routes, under pressure, burst the blitz, play action, under two and a half seconds, out breaking routes. under 10 air yards, intermediate routes. You've got to get so far down the category list. You've been basically the only spot where you could sort of break up his throws and say, ah, it wasn't over 100 of a quarterback rating. outside the tackle box, so you know, like scrambling and moving outside of the tackle box, and then throws on the run. That's basically it. That's it from Jordan Love. Everything else, outside of like throwaways and spikes, above a 100 quarterback rating. Straight up, when Jordan Love plays like this, I don't know if there's another quarterback who can out-duel him. Genuinely. Maybe Burrow, but.
00:02:34
Speaker 2: It's a short list.
00:02:35
Speaker 1: If Jordan Love plays like this, you're right, it is such a short list, and it's so much fun to watch he was phenomenal in this game he played so confidently and that's what he have to do to go toe-to-toe with another great quarterback in the league and i know drake didn't have a great day and we'll get to that in a second but dude jordan love was phenomenal it was a lot of fun to watch.
00:02:54
Speaker 2: It has been nearly 9 000 days since gillette stadium first opened and never not one time in those almost 9 000 days has a team walked in there and put up 45 on the patriots wow ever Wow. So that's the kind of day we're talking about here. And it's not like the Patriots' defense was bad, right? Like, they have an all-pro corner out there, Christian Gonzalez, who we talked about in the preview show, you know, matching up with these receivers. Like, if there was anybody that could stand up to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden and do something about it, it was going to be him. And then, like, the first 90 seconds of the game happened. You're like, uh-oh.
00:03:34
Speaker 1: Nope.
00:03:35
Speaker 2: He's not going to do anything about it. They're just going to go after him over and over and over again. Like, if you look at the Jordan Love passing chart... and all the dots that are on the right side of the field, that is just him looking at Christian Gonzalez and saying, hey, you, you're mine.
00:03:48
Speaker 1: Which is crazy that anybody would say that about Christian Gonzalez. But I'll tell you, man, the reason why he said that is because of how much faith he has in Matthew Golden and how well Matthew Golden is playing. Because you talked about nobody had ever put 45 in the Patriots before in Gillette Stadium. Well, Christian Gonzalez hadn't given up 105 receiving yards to a single receiver in his career before. until this game and until Matthew Golden. Brett not only was Golden 7 for 7, 7 targets, 7 catches for 105 receiving yards, he was also 4 for 4, 4 targets, 4 catches, 73 receiving yards in those man coverage situations. Matthew Golden is playing like one of the best wide receivers in the NFL this season and this tape just proves what we've seen over the last couple of weeks that that's the case.
00:04:35
Speaker 2: The Packers have been around for 107 years at this point. Today was also the first time that two Packers receivers in the same game had a buck 50 and a touchdown each. Like this was a historic game, not just for the Patriots defense in a bad way, but also the Packers offense in a good way. And at the same time, you know, we had talked up May against quarters previewing this game and how He started slow, had a bad first few weeks, and then really just took off, was super hot, and was slicing and dicing quarters. And the Packers came into this game as a top-two defense in terms of using quarters. We're like, okay, well, that's not a great matchup for Green Bay. Nope. They were fine. They did okay. Yeah, they did just fine. If you're looking at May against quarters in this game, First half, he was 2 of 7 for 37 yards and two picks with a 9.5 rating against quarters. Second half, picked it up. He was 5 of 5 for 63 and a touchdown. A perfect quarterback rating against quarters. But by then, they were down by a billion. So, you know, who cares? But those first two picks against quarters were just
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backbreakers. And you had tried to warn us about how good these Packers' safeties are. You know, Evan Williams... If you vote today, he's probably an all-pro. Xavier McKinney, ball hawk. The pick that he got on the crossing route when they were in quarters where he was sitting over the top of the vertical on his side just praying that Drake would let it go, and he dove on that cross so quickly and picked it off. They were ready to go. Lesson learned for me, even if a quarterback is really good against a certain coverage, If that certain coverage is being played by these safeties with this D.C., nobody is safe.
00:06:26
Speaker 3: Nobody.
00:06:27
Speaker 1: Well, I just didn't think that May had faced safeties like the ones that Green Bay has. And just the way that they rotate, how confidently they're playing, they're awesome. And so we're sitting here now, New England and Green Bay, they're the seventh seed right now in the playoff picture. Patriots went from 75% chance to make the playoffs, 56%. Now with this loss, Packers went from 52% chance to make the playoffs. Now they got a 61% chance after the win. And so big swings here with this game.
00:06:54
Speaker 2: Obviously, I love Matt staying aggressive in that situation, being able to take shots. And like you said, it all starts with the defense getting us the ball back in a really good spot right there. Meanwhile, cross the pond over in Madrid, the first game, 6.30 a.m. for me, by the way.
00:07:09
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, hold on. What was the coffee order? What will we have in the cup in the morning to wake up and get ready for this game?
00:07:18
Speaker 2: Oh, so I'm very basic. I have an espresso machine at home, so I make myself a little oat milk latte, sprinkle a little pumpkin spice on top of the foam.
00:07:25
Speaker 1: Okay, all right.
00:07:26
Speaker 2: I could make my own syrups or do something super fancy, but making fancy coffee while I have three cats screaming at me for breakfast usually doesn't go well, so I just do something as fast as possible after I roll out of bed. I don't know if we have any more Europe games. I'm always so excited for them, and then I have to get up and watch football at 6.30. And I'm like, dear God.
00:07:50
Speaker 1: The producers are telling us we got one more. We got one more, the Munich game. So we got one more international game. So make sure the cats are ready for it. Tell them the night before, hey, we're getting up early. Just letting you know. But this one was a lot of fun. We talked about this on the preview show when we were doing the game picks. I'm always so wary of international games. Not because they're bad games. A lot of times they're good contests, but like, I just don't know how they're going to be good contests, right? Like, is it just going to be something that I never thought was going to happen before? And in this one, it obviously was one-sided towards the Bengals, but my goodness, absolutely no jet lag playing on foreign soil. Didn't matter. Burrow still Burrow, Jamar Chase still Jamar Chase. And a little bit later in the game, they found out that T. Higgins was still T. Higgins. So this game was just an absolute beatdown. And to me, a major statement game for the Bengals and their playoff chances.
00:08:45
Speaker 2: One of the major storylines for this, and we've been waiting for it forever this season, the Bengals actually ran the ball really well. I mean, not consistently, like they did have, you know, a bunch of runs stuffed, but they got explosives. to balance that out. It felt like for the first time in a while, they were getting some contribution from the ground game. So it wasn't just Joe and Jamar and T, even though it was Joe and Jamar and T, like they were going off, but it wasn't just them. When the Bengals were able to run the ball successfully, even a little bit, it means that teams are going to play more cover three. And if you're playing cover three and cover one, which the Falcons did a lot in this game, There is no force on heaven or earth that can stop Burrow and Jamar and T if you're playing single high safety structures for most of the game. If you're looking specifically at Joe against cover three in this game, he was 12 of 13 for 172 in a touchdown, a 144.4 rating, 13.2 yards per attempt against cover one, which is also single high safety man coverage across the board. 7-11 for 51, two more touchdowns, a 1-14. 114 passer rating. They are damn near unstoppable if you're sitting there in a single high safety structure. That's been true for years at this point. It's still true now. And so when they have a steady run game or even just the threat, of a steady run game and you have to play those single high structures you're done you're toast right.
00:10:23
Speaker 1: Now I I'm with you and that's why like a couple weeks ago I I thought that the Bengals should be looking at the running back trade market specifically making a big splash like Jonathan Taylor and more recently like I think we talked about this last week as well I'm I'm kind of walking that back because I think the efficiency of the overall ground game would go up, but what's the actual return on investment versus taking the ball out of Burrow's hands who has an EPA per drop back that's top five, top seven in the NFL? Well, I don't really want to take the ball out of that guy's hands very often. And I saw your tweet from earlier today. when you said, when I say the team should run the ball more, I'm not talking about the Bengals. And I agree. That's sort of the way that you look at it. You have to have some sort of complementary run game, but complementary looks different for every team. Balance is simply what's complementary. Balance is what keeps the offense going. It's what keeps the success rate higher. It's what keeps the EPA up. It's what makes you a consistently good offense. It doesn't mean balance is 50-50 with run and pass. And for the Bengals, balance is Joe
Burrow having the ball in his hands for the majority of the game.
00:11:36
Speaker 2: It doesn't even have to be 50-50. If you're looking at their run pass rate, like if we're talking about, you know, balance in a run game, people think that means you run the ball half the time. Even on third and two, the Bengals' run rate on third and two leading up to this game was only 45%. Compared to a lot of other teams, that's very low, but it's enough to make teams think you're going to do it. You compare that to third and medium, their run rate in third and medium is literally zero going into this game. They just don't do it at all. And so if there's even the slightest hint that you're going to run the ball, that's what led indirectly to that first Jamar Chase touchdown. It was third and two. They're in kind of a dirty bunch to the field. The Falcons are in cover three because there's a 45% chance they're going to run the ball here, and what this structure forces is a one-on-one to Jamar Chase. You hear cover three, you think zone defense, you're going to have a corner playing over the top of Jamar, and he's going to have a defender. That's not how cover three plays out against this three-by-one stuff. Typically, you're going to have man coverage on the backside, and the zone coverage is going to be thrown towards you know, the passing strength of the offensive formation. Passing strength meaning where all of the offensive threats are. If Jamar is by himself to the boundary side or the short side of the field, they're just going to leave him in man, whether it's cover three, cover one, like whatever. Zone coverages often have a man coverage component. And specifically in this look, I mean, AJ Terrell against a cut split here from Jamar where he's, you know, inside the numbers, he's playing outside leverage. He's telling Jamar Chase, you're not going to get outside of me. But Jamar is just so explosive, it didn't matter. He just blew right by him. And this is A.J. Terrell, quality corner, played a lot of good football for a long time. But Jamar's been doing this to him since 2019 when they were in college, right in that Clemson game. He's still doing it to him seven years later. And that's what you get with a super weapon outside is when you have even a slight threat of a run game, you force them into cover three, cover three still means one-on-one backside. And if you get one-on-one with Jamar, it's six.
00:13:52
Speaker 1: That's just it. The rest of the season is basically just about the Bengals defense being complimentary to me. That's just what, that's all that really is standing in the way of them being a legitimate Superbowl contender and a team to get back to the Superbowl because they're bangles defensive epa allowed on first drives this season they were bottom five heading into the afternoon games that we had that it's it's just not good it's it's not complimentary it allows you to be let down by one side of the ball and you just if you're a bangles fan you're just hoping the defense is good enough because when the offense plays like this it's hard to think that there are a lot of teams that can keep up with.
00:14:32
Speaker 2: You we're now far enough into the season where we can kind of look ahead to the the home stretch here on the schedule and try to project out like, okay, what seed is possible for Cincinnati? They're hosting the Steelers next on the 15th. Then they're on the road at the Commanders. Then they're hosting the Saints. They're at the Browns. They've got a big showdown with Kansas City in mid-December. Panthers, Colts, Ravens, Browns. Damn. How many games do they lose for the rest of the year?
00:15:07
Speaker 1: I mean, it's the NFL, so who knows, but like three? And you're being fair, cautious, I'll say. I think the number is between two and four, if I had to guess. If their offense is playing anywhere close to what it played, you know, when they were playing the Falcons, and even what we've seen recently.
00:15:29
Speaker 2: There's a non-zero chance it's two.
00:15:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I think between two to four probably makes sense for this team, but that's it. What's their record then?
00:15:37
Speaker 2: If they lose four games... That would be like a 13-win team. Which, I mean, that's probably first seed, right? Or at least close to it.
00:15:46
Speaker 1: Probably. Probably.
00:15:49
Speaker 2: Which I'm pretty sure in the preview episode before the season, you said it was going to be an AFC championship team, didn't you?
00:15:55
Speaker 1: I think I did.
00:15:57
Speaker 2: I had Burrow.
00:15:59
Speaker 1: His MVP, I believe.
00:16:01
Speaker 2: I think you had the Bengals going to the championship.
00:16:04
Speaker 1: And I think that might have been why. Because I said, I think the Bengals are going to have a really good year. And if they're going to have a really good year, Burrow's going to be an MVP candidate. So I do think, yeah, you know what? Yeah. You know what? We'll count that as a dub.
00:16:17
Speaker 2: You know what?
00:16:19
Speaker 1: Don't even look it up. We count it. No, we're counting. In fact, don't even play the rest of the games.
00:16:26
Speaker 2: They're 13-4.
00:16:29
Speaker 1: They're good. We don't have to worry about the rest of it.
00:16:31
Speaker 2: We're treating this like college. We're just going to put them at the one seed.
00:16:36
Speaker 1: And then, yeah, everybody else will kind of play out the season, and then, yeah, who's going to be behind the Bengals?
00:16:42
Speaker 2: It was a great atmosphere.
00:16:43
Speaker 1: I loved putting on a show for the people of Spain and was happy.
00:16:46
Speaker 2: To be here.
00:16:47
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Rams and the Commanders next. So we've got a Rams win. But at what cost? You know, because we've got a potential Puka Nakua injury, which, by the way, dude, can we just talk about this box score that we have here for the Rams, the Rams
passing game? This looks like something that's in Madden, right? When you have, like, you've been playing career mode, and you're like, nah, I'm just giving my guy, like, 20 targets every single game. That's genuinely how it feels like the Rams are playing football with Puka Nakua. Nakua had 19 targets. 14 receptions, 150 yards, and a touchdown. The next closest receiver on the team had two targets, two catches, 20 yards.
00:17:35
Speaker 2: Dude, they have actual running backs on the team, and they gave them a carry on third and 11 on the last play. They do not care about anybody else in that offense other than Pucca.
00:17:47
Speaker 1: Nakua's numbers had to be so ridiculous this year. And I looked this up. Nakua currently has the second highest target percentage for a single season in the NGS era. So it's going back to 2016. He's only behind one person and one year. And it's himself two years ago. And in fact, I zoomed out even further. Brett, since 2016, Nakua has three of the top four target percentage single seasons in the league. He's only been in the league for four years. That fourth year was his rookie year. And that one was at like 28.7%. Oh, that's it. Just almost a third of the targets on the team. Since he has come into the league, every single thing is Puka Nakua. And it's absolutely wild.
00:18:39
Speaker 2: And I don't really blame them either. Like, I really don't. Like, he's one of the best offensive players at any position in the NFL. He really is that valuable. It's one of the most valuable contracts in the NFL because they're still not paying him a lot of money right now, and he's gotten that much production in his first few years in the league. Like, I get it. Plus, with Devontae Inger, like, what else are you going to throw to? Like, yeah, they're one-dimensional and everything, you know, the whole plane's made out of puka, but what else are you going to make it out of? They don't really have any other choice. But at the same time, 3rd and 11, do we really have to give him a carry on 3rd and 11? I wouldn't have done that personally, especially because it's a low percentage chance you're even going to convert that in the first place. Also, side note, he did get, we think, injured on that play. As of recording, all we know is he's going to get an MRI. We don't know how serious it is. We hope it's not, but I mean... At what cost? You said it yourself. At what cost? Why did we have to do that?
00:19:46
Speaker 1: And I think that Stafford's also different this year. Obviously, when he's throwing to Nakua, it works. But I was looking this up this afternoon, and when I was thinking of how they were getting the ball to Nakua this year, I keep thinking of so many different behind-the-line-of-scrimmage stuff, at-the-line-of-scrimmage stuff.
00:20:07
Speaker 3: Very.
00:20:08
Speaker 1: uniquely designed screen game like I think it's a very creative screen game I like how they're doing it but it's basically an extension of the run
game and I'm like man is this just because they don't really trust Stafford downfield and that's not quite it because Stafford is still top 10 in total passing yards with 10 or more air yards but Brett even though he's top 10 in total passing yards from those longer passes beyond 10 yards he is only 24th in QBR on such throws. He is 20th in completion percentage, and he is 24th in EPA per dropback. He is 17th on EPA per dropback on throws of more than 20 yards, and he has not completed a single pass of 20 or more air yards from inside the numbers.
00:20:57
Speaker 2: Wait, what?
00:20:58
Speaker 1: Really? He has not completed a pass of 20 or more air yards from inside the numbers. And it's something that I have. He's 0 for 7. And it's something that I've kind of like hinted at. And the more we go on with this season, the more context I feel like I get. And I'm just like, why does this Rams offense look so difficult? Everything is just such a tight window throw. And it's because the Rams very much just do what they think is best. we're just going to be straight up better than you. And it's a lot of tight window throws. It's a lot of contested catches. It's a lot of yards after contact. And sometimes it works. But there are other times, I think, when you dig a little bit deeper into the efficiency that leaves some questions as to what this offense is going to be long-term, especially if Niku is going to miss any time.
00:21:51
Speaker 2: Well, when you have Myles Garrett on the other side, sometimes, yeah, you can just out-talent people because you have better dudes than they do. And this was Miles' first game back off injury. Hasn't played since week one. And now having played two games this entire year, it's week nine. We're almost at mid-November. He is now 55% of the way to catching Jared Verse for season-long pressures. Also, Verse has no sacks so far. Miles now has three. Verse has 20 pressures per next-gen stats. Miles has 11. So he's gaining on him. trev he's only played two games he was sensational in this game like i said three sacks and he looked like miles garrett there was a sack that he had he was he was everything that we remember i was worried i.
00:22:44
Speaker 1: Was worried of like is he gonna come back and it's just kind of gonna be like a wasted year and then i watched like three reps from him at the beginning of the game and i was like no we're good we're good actually yeah keep it rolling.
00:22:58
Speaker 2: Early in the fourth quarter, there was a sack that he had, which was vintage miles. And he's known for his Eurostep, right? And he'll use it whether he's at a wide nine. He'll use it as a five. Sometimes when they line him up over a center or a guard, he'll Eurostep them too. And the reason why it's so effective is because he does have power. Like his foundation is power because he's like 280 pounds. I know what he's listed at. That number is a lie. That man is like 280 and box jumps like 40 inches. And so this sack that he had early in the fourth quarter, when you see him jab hard inside, it's because he is telling the tackle with his body language and with how he's pointing his shoulders inside, like, I am going to run into your chest. I'm going to take you for a ride. And the tackle kind of has no choice reflexively, but just to start anchoring down and flashing his hands because he's like, hey, I have a 280 pounder running right at me. And The thing that makes Miles so special and really historically special is he can then plant off of that foot when he looks like he's about to run through your chest and do this Euro step outside while chopping with his inside hand. And then even when he's at the same depth of the quarterback, you know, his hips are pointed towards the end zone. And he has to crank himself around the corner, flatten for the sack. Most guys, especially if they're that heavy, that big, they can't round the corner that quickly. But for him, he turns on a dime. He turns like somebody who weighs 230. That's something Nicky Manwuri would do. And he's got 50-plus pounds on him. So the fact that he can flash power a Eurostep, chop the hands, bend, and then flatten around the corner and get a sack... First game off a knee injury. Alien doesn't even describe him. Even aliens, if they landed here today, would be like, what the hell is that? We've never seen that before. He's one of one.
00:24:59
Speaker 1: For the Commanders, obviously, look, this is a one-score game for the Commanders, but it kind of just feels like that sort of season for them. The receiving core seems jumbled. I don't think that it's terrible every week, but it just seems jumbled and inconsistent for them. The run game's also inconsistent. There's been some strange offensive emphasis points. Is that the best way to say it for the commanders in late-game situations this season? If you're trying to be kind, sure. And I think that this week was another one where it's like, hey, we've got to get the ball into the end zone here at the end. We've got to score a touchdown. I don't know. I feel as though... It just feels like one of those seasons where things are just not going right with the commanders. We'll see what the offseason brings when it comes to changes on the roster, the staff, whatever it is with this team. But it just feels like one of those seasons that could have been with the commanders, and this feels like another game that kind of maybe could have been in a lot of ways. Let's talk about the Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers. This game I do think is interesting and deserves some attention on both sides here, Brett, because Denver came out hot And it was like, oh, here we go. Like, Panthers, this is it. Like, the season's going off the rails. This is terrible. And then they punch back. But then, obviously, the Broncos are able to stabilize things. This is their 16th consecutive one-score victory, which is pretty damn incredible when you say out loud. Your
thoughts here on this game. You want to start with the Panthers or you want to start with the Broncos?
00:26:43
Speaker 2: We keep saying that they can't get away with it anymore, and they just keep getting away with it. And I don't mean that as a diss. I know Broncos fans are tired of hearing about it. You know, some people say it's unethical football. Some people say it's blind luck. Some people say it's unsustainable. Like you said, 16 straight. Seems like they're sustaining it pretty well. Since the start of 2025, their record when getting outgained meaning they get less yards than their opponent. It's 6-4. That is a 600 winning percentage when outgained. The rest of the league is 114, 280, and 2. That is a 290 winning percentage.
00:27:27
Speaker 1: That's nuts.
00:27:30
Speaker 2: Yes, it is nuts. That also tells me yards do not matter with this team because if you get a bunch of yards on them, you get into the red zone. Their red zone defense is so good. Like their top eight in red zone defense this year, 37.8% of possessions in the red zone get touchdowns. Well, well, well below average. They are so good defensively in the red zone that the yards, it's just kind of empty calories against them. And they're just going to hold you to three over and over and over again. And they're going to keep it within striking distance. And if they just get one play in the fourth quarter, whether it's special teams or Jonah Coleman doing something awesome, or both throwing a big ball to Pat Bryant or Waddle or whoever, if they just get one play, because the game is always going to be close, it's always going to be one possession, that's all they need, right? So their red zone defense is great. They're getting plays from special teams when they need them. No team is ever really able to pull away from them outside of the very rare exception like week one against Kansas City where they did legitimately pull away from them. But that's also because the defense just couldn't tackle that day. When their defense plays like themselves... they're almost impossible to beat because you just can't put them down and they won't die. I've never seen a team like this that just won't die. And it's at some point we just have to say like, yeah, that's who they are. They're going to keep winning that way.
00:28:56
Speaker 1: And, you know, I was thinking about this today. I think the main frustration that we have with the Broncos is maybe a ceiling and potential that we feel like this team should be at, or at least has. And, anytime you have expectations for a team and they don't live up to it, even if they're winning, sometimes it could feel like a disappointment. Sometimes you could feel like they're not going in the right direction. And there are obviously, you know, we've had bonus conversations about like, he needs to be better in certain ways. And the average air yards and average at the target is it's just dink and dunk football, just far too much. And then we've talked about how he could sometimes turn it on in the fourth quarter and, and, you know, the forgiveness of sins because of how he plays in the fourth quarter. But the first three quarters are just, they're, They're far too anemic to win a football game. there's there's all of these things we've said so much about the Broncos but at the end of the day we talked about this with the Bengals a little bit earlier in the show complimentary means doing what you need to do to win games And the defense is certainly complimentary of what the offense, when the offense struggles, the defense, a lot of times this season has stepped up and they have looked like one of the best defenses in the NFL, like we thought they had the potential to be. And I think certainly with Jonah Coleman, I feel like the ceiling of the rush game is a little bit better for this team to be more quote unquote balance, which feels like, I don't know, maybe the theme word that we have here of this show. But I just, when I look at the criticism of the Broncos, there are certainly things that I think that they need to and should even do better to get to where they want to go to win the Super Bowl. But at the same time, sometimes I was just thinking about it this afternoon, and I'm like, man, maybe I'm being a little too harsh on them just because I think of what the Broncos can be. Sometimes I look at what Bo Nix is in the fourth quarter, and I go, just do that! That more often!
00:30:34
Speaker 2: Why is it so hard?
00:30:36
Speaker 1: And I think that there's a little bit of built-in frustration there with that, but a heck of a team, especially when you keep coming out on top in these one-score games, you've got to recognize that. On the Panther side of things, I think it's twofold here, things I want to recognize. The first one is that this team continues to really struggle defending the run when things get outside of the tackle box. And I think that both of their starting corners being out still and being out till kind of feels like late November, early December with Mike Jackson and J.C.
00:31:03
Speaker 2: Horn.
00:31:03
Speaker 1: That's just going to be an issue for them that they have to try to mitigate. But on runs outside of the tackles, I noticed this at the beginning of this game when the Broncos were really putting it on them. They're bottom five in yards per carry average and bottom three in success rate allowed. So anytime you are forcing those linebackers to flow all the way to the outside, they're not able to do it. Or the rest of the team's not able to do it. The outside corners aren't able to help in the run game the way that you want to. We've also mentioned the offensive line and straight up just the offensive line held them back in this game. Rasheed Walker, Monroe Freeling each had 9.3% pressure percentages in this game. Both of them had time to pressure averages below not just three seconds, but 2.8 seconds, which is really fast on average. Each of them gave up
quick pressure. Each of them gave up at least a half a sack. Walker gave up two and a half sacks. And Walker, Rasheed Walker also got double team help on 10 pass blocking reps and still gave up two pressures on those. Like he's just really struggling. It's hard to play offense when two of your offensive tackles are really struggling that much. So it was a game that obviously the Broncos came out on top, but it's one where I think the Panthers are just, it's a very frustrating season, all of the injuries that they're having to deal with. And, you know, it gets old making excuses, especially for ones that you can't control with injuries. But this was another one where I think both sides of the ball really felt the injuries of the guys that weren't out there. Once again from the Broncos, now riding a five-game winning streak as they improve to 7-2 on the season.
00:32:35
Speaker 2: The Panthers fall. to three and five all right Cleveland New Orleans started out not that fun of a game to watch I had it on since the beginning it was nine to six with under six minutes to go it just was a lot of bad offensive football like I'm not going to sugarcoat it Shador started really really slow Tyler Shuck he did make some good plays but there were some baffling moments like they caught a blitz with a hard count. Like, they got him to show it, and then they just snapped the ball anyway, and he took a sack from the guy that showed the blitz. And it's like, what's the point of doing a hard count if we're not going to make any sort of adjustments in protection whatsoever? A lot of bad offensive football. And then the last six minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime just exploded. Went from 9-6 to 23-22. Ended on the very last play. Browns going for a two-point conversion. Didn't get it. And it was supremely entertaining in the end. I want to give Shador credit. Again, 54 minutes, not super great football. I don't think it was entirely his fault because they had like a 60% run rate for most of this game. So he didn't really get a chance to get in rhythm. It's his first start. He's averaging like four attempts per quarter. leading up to the fourth quarter, so it's hard to get in rhythm when you haven't played. Once they did start throwing more, though, if you're looking at fourth quarter and overtime, he had 20 passing plays just in the fourth and overtime, compared to 16 in the first three quarters. And that's where you really started to see him make plays once he got more comfortable. I'm not going to pretend that the throws that he did make were like dimes. The Denzel Boston throw, I think, was really more Denzel Boston making a crazy adjustment than a true great throw. Casey's touchdown, same thing, kind of underthrown, but that's why he drafted these guys super high, so you give yourself a margin for error. And the Harold Fannin touchdown, that was just Harold Fannin just running through everybody. So it wasn't necessarily Shador making plays with perfect throws, but he did make the throw. I agree. The throw to Judy, honestly, was his best play of the day. Because he got detonated while letting it go and got 30-something yards, gave him an opportunity to get a field goal. That was his best play of the day. So while I don't want to go overboard with the take Sunshin to her positively or negatively, what I found myself asking after the game was, even though they lost, do they go back to Deshaun? Would that have even happened with Deshaun? as, as unperfect as it was, I'm not so sure that it would have happened with Deshaun in there. So why, you know, why go back when you have an opportunity to really go in a playoff run here? Deshaun is not the future anyway. I'm not even sure Shadur is the future, but we already know Deshaun is not the future. So why not find out if Shadur is the future and, in the back half of this season and see if he can go on a little bit of a run here.
00:35:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that Shador in this game looked better than he certainly did last year, where I feel like he really struggled. Now, the time to throw average for him was still over three seconds, but that's not going to get better unless he plays. You know, you can manufacture a lower time to throw if you just tell the quarterback, like, hey, I want you, the second you get to the end of your drop back, the ball is coming out of your hands. Like, we're designing these plays to where you're not really reading too much. You're reading one defender. You're not really scanning the field for what might be the best route in the progression. We just want the ball out of your hand fast because we don't trust how you're going to hold onto the ball. So you can manufacture a lower time to throw average, but that doesn't always yield the best quarterback play. And sometimes you can be coaching confidence out of quarterbacks if you do that. So for Shador, I like that Munkin's sort of letting him still play the game the way that he wants to try to confidently play the game. He is just holding on the ball too long. Like there were times where sometimes the pocket called for this, where I felt like he was retreating beyond the pocket, just dropping way deeper to adjust for pressure when he probably could have stepped up or sidestepped or something. But again, that only gets better if you play. So I'm with you. I think that Shador has a case to be the starting quarterback for the rest of the season just to see what you got. I think that you can absolutely make a case for that after what we saw here in this game. I want to shout out Tyler Shuck, though, as well. Shuck, man, I feel like he's got the clutch gene. Not that every single throw is perfect, but we've had a couple of times this season where he was great in the fourth quarter and when his back was against the wall. He was 11 for 17 in the fourth quarter in overtime, 109 passing yards, had a touchdown and an interception, 102.3 quarterback rating. while being pressured on
25.3% of his dropbacks in the fourth quarter and overtime, by the way. So fun to watch him. I think that there's a lot to like about when it's going well for Tyler Shuck and obviously the first game for Jordan Tyson. So the rest of this season, it's going to be fun, hopefully, to see this offense a lot more healthy with all those guys out there.
00:37:40
Speaker 2: He had a ball in this game, by the way, 57.1 yards through the air. Like, he's got a cannon.
00:37:47
Speaker 1: He's got the goods. He let it rip.
00:37:51
Speaker 2: All right, Tampa Bay, Chicago. Trevor, there were seven turnovers in this game. I don't even know where to begin.
00:38:01
Speaker 1: Dude, it is funny because Baker and Caleb are both extremely talented, right? Heisman Trophy winners, gunslingers, must-watch TV type of quarterbacks. But when it looks bad for these quarterbacks, they are just giving the ball to the other team. And even with that being the case, I never would have imagined that it was going to be this much. And so what a wild ride of a game that ends up in a three-point game, field goal win as time expires. But yeah, this is a wild one, man.
00:38:38
Speaker 2: And what was crazy is, okay, five turnovers by the Bears. They still win.
00:38:42
Speaker 1: This game, which in itself is a crazy stat.
00:38:45
Speaker 2: If you look at the past two weeks, the Bucs have forced a lot of turnovers the past two weeks. Their scoring drive percentage off of drives that start with a takeaway, of which they've had eight in two weeks, it's only 37.5%. That's the equivalent of the 29th highest scoring drive percentage in the league off of takeaway. They have not been able to capitalize on.
00:39:15
Speaker 1: There's no other way to say it that's bad, especially for the rate in which they're forcing the turnovers because Callie, who is our excellent NGS researcher here for the show, gave me this stat, which is insane. The Bucs have had four interceptions. in cover three the last two weeks, each of the last two weeks. I mean, four interceptions in and of itself is crazy, but to say you have four in cover three in each of the last two weeks is crazy. Since 2018, it's those two games and then one other game in which a team has recorded four interceptions in in cover three, and the Bucs have done it in back-to-back weeks. Crazy. The turnovers that this team is creating is absolutely crazy. I think the defense playing better as a whole could be sustainable for them. The turnovers are not going to be sustainable. You can't think that you're going to get this many turnovers. And Brett, I think that's where the issue is. That's where my stat and your stat sort of ties together, if you're looking at this from a Tampa angle, is You're getting a crazy amount of turnovers, and you just forced five turnovers in a game. You still lost. It took you a turnover at the very end when Chicago was trying to ice the game, and then the Bucs call a couple of plays. Bucky Irving gets in the end
zone. All of a sudden, it's a tie game, but then you got the blown coverage on the close to 11 pass. They get in a field goal range. They end up losing the game anyways. That's concerning. That's when you go into the locker room and you're just like, come on, man. Five turnovers. We couldn't beat this team? That's tough.
00:40:48
Speaker 2: Also, the fact that their own turnovers, you could argue, is the reason why they lost on top of that. Like, the pick six was awful. Yeah. It's just a Tampa 2 look. He's sitting there as a hook dropper. Like, I don't know how Baker didn't see him. He was sitting right there.
00:41:06
Speaker 1: It always hurts more. When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throw a pick against Tampa 2, it's always how I felt.
00:41:13
Speaker 2: We invented this.
00:41:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm like, why are you allowed to do this? You can't hold on here. Can we sue for this and take this turnover off the board? Copyright infringement? That's what I'm saying, man. Can we get the lawyers involved, please?
00:41:28
Speaker 2: I know there's some Steelers fan vigorously typing. Actually, the Steelers invented it in the 70s. We know.
00:41:32
Speaker 1: We know.
00:41:35
Speaker 2: Also, Pete Carroll just calls it inverted cover three. It's a whole thing. Tampa 2 coverage is.
00:41:41
Speaker 1: A whole war behind it. No, that's just Pete getting around the copyright. That's what he's trying to do there. Caleb looked untouchable to start this game. And I think a couple of those interceptions that he had, those are heat check interceptions, where he just thought he could do no wrong. And to be honest with you, again, how the game started, kind of don't blame him. But you do, when he threw those interceptions... they panned to Ben Johnson's face on the sideline. You kind of go, those are the moments where you've got, if he throws one interception of a heat check throw, you go, okay, man, you could have it. You're Caleb Williams.
00:42:18
Speaker 2: After the third one, though.
00:42:19
Speaker 1: You could have it.
00:42:20
Speaker 2: Okay.
00:42:21
Speaker 1: But even like the, after, I think it was the second one, Ben Johnson kind of like, they went to him and he like rolled his eyes on the sideline and he wasn't like rolling his eyes like at Caleb. It was like rolling his eyes and like, like we can't do this.
00:42:32
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the whip around. We're going to start with Jets, Chiefs. You said last week it's always something different every single game with the Jets. You never know what it's going to be. It's going to be offense. It's going to be defense. It's going to be special teams. I mean, typically, special teams will contribute. This has been a really bad year for special teams with the Jets. This week, it was kind of everything. Offense wasn't great. Defense wasn't great. Special teams, again, horrific. Every single week, they're horrific. At this point, I have nothing left for Jets fans. Other than just, I'm sorry. I'm really, really sorry. This team is way more talented than the results on the field. And I'm not saying they're the most talented team. They're not this. They're not supposed to be this. You have one of the most productive young edge rushers we have ever seen. If you're looking at a player's first eight games, nobody's ever had as many sacks and forced fumbles as David Bailey. Like this kid should be a superstar. Nobody's talking about him because the Jets aren't winning games because they're always just finding new ways to lose. They allowed 203 of the 228 net passing yards for the Chiefs today after the catch. How is that even possible for a defensive coach to have his defense give up that many yards after the catch? And that is a separate issue we will talk about with the Chiefs of how they're kind of over-reliant on after-the-catch yards. But, like, good God, 200 in a game? I just, I don't, like, what do you even say to Connor when you do NFL SE this week? What do you do?
00:44:18
Speaker 1: Brother, you know what I say. They got three picks in the top 15. I don't got to say anything to him. The cigar is already lit. His feet are already up on the desk. And he says, pull up the mock draft again. Run it again. He's a... Conor's Denzel Washington.
00:44:37
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no.
00:44:38
Speaker 1: Not Denzel Washington. The better example is he is Herb Brooks from Miracle with the whistle in his mouth just yelling again.
00:44:47
Speaker 3: Again.
00:44:49
Speaker 1: Send him again. And it's just a mock draft simulator of the Jets. But, like, to your point, I mean.
00:44:55
Speaker 2: You're right.
00:44:56
Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs are good when it goes well for the Chiefs. Obviously, it goes very well. It's good to see Kenneth Walker, obviously, continuing to play well, bouncing back from a couple of slower weeks. But on the Jets' side of things, they've allowed almost the most points per game in the NFL over the last four weeks. They allowed a 57.8% success rate against the Chiefs in this game. I don't want to go after Aaron Glenn for all this all the time, but hey, you're a defensive coach. This is what you were brought in to do.
00:45:25
Speaker 2: They spent a lot of money on defense this offseason.
00:45:28
Speaker 1: It's not like their defense isn't quite elite. Their defense is bad. Their defense has been bad. It was bad last year. It's bad this year. It's just bad. And I just think that that's tough. And so I think a lot of Jets fans are turning the page on this season. Maybe they're turning the page on this regime. Obviously, we got a second half of the season to see what they got. But yeah, man, I mean... They're getting good rookie performances at a lot of these guys on both sides of the ball. And it's not seeming to matter. And I think that's when you really get concerned. The ownership from the front office is when you start getting your young guys, like when your draft picks are hitting and it does not matter
at all for you, that's when you start having some major question marks about things.
00:46:08
Speaker 2: And to the Chiefs, you're not getting away with this either. So they try to sneak in this game. They brought out Justin Fields, tried to sneak, fumbled it, failed. Disaster.
00:46:17
Speaker 1: Just for us, by the way.
00:46:19
Speaker 2: Just for us.
00:46:20
Speaker 1: For us, that they did this Neek for us.
00:46:22
Speaker 2: Andy went to the media after the game, and he's like, we tried it. It didn't work. Are you happy?
00:46:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's why I said they did it for us. They did it for the people. The comment that he said, this really irked me. The comment that he said was, it's a hard thing to practice.
00:46:40
Speaker 2: I don't know. 31 other teams figure it out. It's a really high percentage play for 31 other teams. It feels like a you thing. So whatever you guys are doing, and you say it's hard to practice, there is a significant chunk of the calendar, they call it training camp, where you learn how to do a quarterback sneak. They've never been able to do it. They got down to the goal line in this game, and they busted out a shield screen to Travis Kelsey that they hadn't used in like five years, because back then they also couldn't convert in short yardage. And so they're just kind of going through all the greatest hits this year, doing like shovel screens and everything like that. I don't know, guys. Figure it out. It's a 99% play for everybody but you. That's a you problem.
00:47:28
Speaker 1: I think it would be beneficial if they could figure out how to do it. But it doesn't seem like they want to figure out how to do it. They would rather do it a different way. Uh, your, uh, 10 confidence pick game this week was the San Francisco 49ers. And they indeed looked like a 10 confidence pick type of a team, uh, taking down the Las Vegas Raiders. I will say this with the Raiders though. I'm not, I'm not trying to just be the draft guy who's trying to rush the number one overall pick quarterback to play. Like I am very much of the mindset that I love what the Raiders have done. I love that they have bought time with Fernando. I love that they, um, leaning on on Cousins for this but over the last couple of weeks you know obviously they start hot and they win what was it four they were four no to start the season I believe so you start hot your role everything's rolling now they're four and five on the season and this game specifically there was one throw it was the Kirk Cousins interception it was his third interception that he has so the last interception they threw in this game where look the game was pretty much over anyways but you watch that interception and You see what Kirk sees and you see him load up and let the ball go before the receiver even really has a ton of separation vertically. But Kirk just can't, he can't get it there. He can't get the ball to where it needs to be to lead that receiver with this vertical separation that they are gaining. Mendoza completes that pass and it's a touchdown. I really do think that. Now, maybe they see him in practice, right? So maybe the pocket presence and decision-making and how he gets there, maybe all that's not fast enough yet. But I can tell you the arm talent, that's a touchdown, 100%. If the Raiders want to go toe-to-toe with the best and really have a realistic chance of beating them, you do that with Fernando Mendoza potentially giving you that. Because I think there is a limited scene. for as great as Kirk has been and as awesome as the floor has been for this team with Cousins out there, I think we're starting to see what the ceiling is too. And so I wonder if it's going to be Mendoza time at some point soon.
00:49:32
Speaker 2: I do want to ask you this question because they're playing the Seahawks next.
00:49:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wouldn't do that one. Don't do that one. Don't do that.
00:49:43
Speaker 2: Here's the thing. If we don't think Kirk has the gas to win that game anyway, and if the goal is we need Fernando to understand the kind of game speed that he needs to be at to win, is there not a better lesson than going against Mike McDonald? If he loses, fine. You're probably going to lose that game anyway. So is it Is it better to just throw him out there against the Seahawks to see where he's at? Knowing that Fernando is such a good self-starter, I don't think he's going to lose his confidence if he gets his ass kicked by the Seahawks. I don't. I think he's wired in a way where he'll, he'll legitimately treat it as a learning opportunity because their next two games are Seattle and Denver. And then you got Cleveland who is also a good defense. So like, it's not like there's a ton of bad defenses left on the schedule. If you're going to throw them out there, is it not more beneficial to let him take his lumps now, knowing that at best you're a seven seed with Kirk. And if you miss it because you throw up Fernando and he's losing a bunch of games, like, At least you're kind of getting it out of the way. Does that make sense or more sense than just leaving on the bench? Sure.
00:50:57
Speaker 1: I think the schedule, Matt, I think everybody likes to focus on schedules when you talk about playing rookie quarterbacks and letting them start for the first time. The way that I explain it is the correct time to play a rookie quarterback is when you know that they're going to be able to fail and not lose confidence in themselves. Whether that's week three, week five, week 15, anything in between or anything around it. That's what I truly believe, is whenever you can throw them out there, and when they fail, because they will fail, they won't lose confidence in themselves, and they'll actually learn the lessons instead. That's the time that you put the quarterback out there. Maybe that is against the Seahawks. Any quick thoughts on the 49ers? I mean, it was a dominant game for the 49ers. Brock Purdy
looked awesome. The offensive line looked awesome. Grayson Holland getting hurt sucks. I mean, there's no way around that one. That one sucks. Linebackers looked great for this 49ers team once again. I think it was just kind of another day at the office for a team that's got the number one overall seed aspirations.
00:51:50
Speaker 2: I mean, Fred Warner's sick. That's my number one note.
00:51:53
Speaker 1: There you go.
00:51:55
Speaker 2: He's so good, man. He's so good. Comeback player of the year to me. Let's get to Detroit-Miami. We did not expect Miami to win this game, and they didn't win this game. So from that standpoint, yeah, this game kind of, happened exactly as we thought it would. What didn't happen exactly as I thought it would was just how sticky the Lions offense was. Each team only had eight possessions in this game. One of them for the Lions was just a three-play possession that was a pick early on in the game. Every other drive the Lions had in this game, which was only seven of them for all four quarters, they averaged 8.3 plays per drive on those possessions, which doesn't sound crazy. That is absolutely crazy. The NFL average for plays per drive is 5.7. So that's almost three plays more than the NFL average. Detroit themselves are tied for second this year at 6.4 average per drive. The highest is 6.5. So Almost two plays more than the stickiest offense in the NFL as far as just can't get them off the field. Like stubborn offense maybe is the best way to put it. And, you know, if you're looking at the overall stats of this game, Lions were only 3 of 12 on third down. So you're wondering how were they able to stay on the field so much?
00:53:19
Speaker 1: They were 4 of 4.
00:53:22
Speaker 2: On fourth down in this game. You just couldn't get them off.
00:53:25
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:53:26
Speaker 2: And, you know, both teams had a fake punt in this game, which I found hilarious. I don't know the last time both... teams hit a fake punt in one game. But like beyond that, you know, you had Jameer Gibbs just racing to the pylon around Jordan Brooks. Like they had a perfect call in that game where Brooks was on the edge and they did kind of like a counter pitch. And it's like, go ahead, keep up with Jameer Gibbs one-on-one in space. You're not going to, right? Like they had Tesla running a return in on fourth down. That was like a perfect call because they would show smash over and over and over again. And then just running back inside, like, They were in their bag in high leverage downs and distances in this game. And that's what really blew me away is even by Lions standards, you could not get them off the field. I felt bad for the Dolphins by the fourth quarter. Like, there's nothing they could do.
00:54:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Lions just, I think, just bounced back in this game. They were pressured 53.3% on Jared Goff's dropbacks in the first half, gave up three sacks. it was pressured only 21.4% in the second half. And I wondered to myself, like, oh, did they just blitz less for some reason? No, they didn't. They actually blitzed more. Now, they didn't blitz a lot, but they blitzed more in the second half than the first half. The thing was that just the Lions offensive line locked in. I mean, Blake Miller had a 31.4% pressure percentage in the first half, 0% in the second half. And I think that, yeah, that was sort of the same across the whole offensive line. So this Dolphins team is scrappy. Like, they're going to kind of be a little closer on the scoreboard than you would expect, even though They're not going to rack up a lot of wins this year. They're going to play you tough, and I think they played Detroit tough, but Detroit was just too much in the end.
00:54:58
Speaker 2: Giants-Eagles. My God.
00:55:02
Speaker 1: Orville Reese. He's so good.
00:55:04
Speaker 2: He's so good. 12 tackles, 3 sacks, 28.6% pressure rate, average time to pressure of 2.13 seconds, which in football terms means instantly. You look at him, you look at Malik, you look at CeCe Malinoa, Cam, the young talent core here. that the Giants are building is so impressive.
00:55:28
Speaker 1: So impressive. I think Arville Reese, I know other people have been here earlier the last couple of weeks, but Arville Reese to me is defensive rookie of the year after a performance like this. He's a takeover type of a player. Even though I was waiting for him to develop a little bit more in coverage, that's not going to be what's asked of him this season. So there's no reason for me to sit here and expect it and hold it back from him. earning the accolades and the recognition that he deserves because this man hunts quarterbacks. He hunts the football. It's just amazing to see a player of his athletic caliber be able to do what he's been able to do. McCarthy, Giants pick up the win in this game. McCarthy had the injury. He was in and out. He had the rib injury. Something that I think is just to note about McCarthy, something to monitor, two for eight with only 14 passing yards and a 39.6 quarterback rating on in-breaking routes. Now, he was better in breaking routes against Houston, but just something to monitor. Is there something moving forward about him being reluctant to attack over the middle of the field, or was it just kind of like, hey, they were having a bad game in that area? And then for me, the Eagles, just to talk about the Eagles a little bit here in this game, I don't know what you want from this team with this offensive line the way that they are this year.
00:56:41
Speaker 2: It's untenable.
00:56:42
Speaker 1: They're just going to be bad. 28 rushing yards on 17 design carries. Negative 16 rushing yards over expected. Negative 0.9 yards before contact average. Can't win. Not going to win. They're just not going to win football games like that. And it just kind of unfortunately is what it is for the Eagles.
00:56:59
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, Dallas Indy.
00:57:02
Speaker 1: Never in doubt.
00:57:04
Speaker 2: There's a little bit of doubt.
00:57:05
Speaker 1: No, never in doubt.
00:57:06
Speaker 2: Don't lie to us. There's a little bit of doubt.
00:57:08
Speaker 1: Never in doubt. Never in doubt.
00:57:11
Speaker 2: It was tied late in the game, and I know you were glued to the screen, dude. You've never watched a Colts game with more passion than this one this week. It was absurd.
00:57:27
Speaker 1: When the Colts had the ball and were driving and were guaranteed to at least get a field goal, I was kind of mentally just losing my mind. Because we were once again in a situation where Dallas had like a 92% chance to win the game in the third quarter or something like that. And I was like, this team. Now, in all seriousness, this is a, I always feel bad saying like poorly coached because I'm not a coach myself. But the player execution is not there consistently for this team in this game.
00:57:59
Speaker 2: Wait, which one?
00:58:01
Speaker 1: For the Cowboys. What do you mean?
00:58:03
Speaker 2: Okay, you could say for both, really.
00:58:04
Speaker 1: No, I'm specifically talking about what is one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. The team that I think is probably the most disappointing team in the NFL outside of the Los Angeles Chargers is Dallas Cowboys because again this week, 14 penalties, 153 penalty yards, 99 yards allowed on five missed tackles, a 19.9 yards per missed tackle average. That's the most in a single game by any defense this season. The Cowboys won this game, but it's just like, come on, man. If Dak's not superhuman at times for this team. But he was.
00:58:38
Speaker 2: That's my takeaway. He was. Editor Nick, please throw up Dak's passing chart here just so the people can look at it. This is how they won. This passing chart is how they won. Dak was superhuman when they needed it most. CD was incredible in this game. They the one mistake that CD made, which honestly, I don't really fault like the fumble was kind of a weird thing because his hand was down, but his wrist and his forearm wasn't. So it technically counted as a fumble. and he didn't realize it and it held they didn't there was a rookie corner that should have touched him down before the fumble even happened so kind of a weird play which if you're looking at the overall narrative of the game you have that fumble which took cowboys points off the board you had a fumble earlier in the game which basically gave the colts points You take those two fumbles out of the equation, this game's probably not close. But it's not close because of what Dak and CeeDee did otherwise. No pickings in this game, no problem, did not matter. When this team wants to go down the field, take coaching out of it. They just have better dudes than you. They just do. And I wish they had a better defense to complement that. I wish they had better special teams. They don't. So if they are going to win games, it's going to be like this. And it's agonizing. It's awful to
watch for Cowboys fans because they know it's going to be way closer than it should be. But, you know, when you're paying your quarterback $ 60 million a year, you hope that he can play like this just to give you a shot at winning, and he absolutely is.
01:00:12
Speaker 1: Really quick, this could age very quickly, but do you think George Pickens gets traded? I don't think so.
01:00:23
Speaker 2: If they lost this game, I would have said yes. Yeah, I agree.
01:00:26
Speaker 1: I agree. I agree.
01:00:27
Speaker 2: Now, just because of what the NFC East is this year, really what the NFC in general is this year, it's ultra competitive. They're not entirely out of it.
01:00:39
Speaker 1: I say no.
01:00:40
Speaker 2: I'll say no.
01:00:41
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:00:42
Speaker 2: Because that would basically be them saying, like, we're giving up. And I don't feel like they're in that.
01:00:48
Speaker 1: Place right now. I don't think so either. I don't think so either.
01:00:51
Speaker 2: Shall we get to Arizona-Seattle? Sure.
01:00:55
Speaker 1: Yeah.
01:00:57
Speaker 2: I understand why the Cardinals are the way that they are. They've taken offensive line injuries this year and on paper going into the year, you know, four out of their five offensive line spots are taken care of. Like I was a big fan of Basantas coming out. I'm sure you were as well.
01:01:14
Speaker 1: Yep.
01:01:15
Speaker 2: And you know, right tackle, as long as they just had like semi kind of sort of okay, right tackle play. I thought it was going to be a good offensive line or at least a solid offensive line. And the question was, is their defense going to do literally anything? and once they started taking on water injury-wise in the offensive line, and Jeremiah got banged up before the season even started because they gave him like 30 carries in a preseason game for some reason, it just spun out of control. You've got to prove yourself every day, Brad.
01:01:42
Speaker 3: What?
01:01:42
Speaker 1: I said you've got to prove yourself every day.
01:01:46
Speaker 2: Every day.
01:01:46
Speaker 1: You've got to get to work. You've got to prove yourself.
01:01:49
Speaker 2: Like 15 touches.
01:01:50
Speaker 1: Whatever you did yesterday, it doesn't matter. Last game, it didn't matter. It doesn't matter.
01:01:56
Speaker 2: But it's led to this. All of that has led to this, where if you're looking at how the game went, it was a 10-play drive for a field goal, then three and out, six-play drive, punt, three and out, kneel before half, six-play drive, punt, six-play drive, punt, 14-play drive, turnover on downs, nothing for the rest of the game. So everything is either like a 10-play drive when the passing game is working, or three and out. And the reason is, if you're looking at their designed rush success rate on second and 10. Cause they do like to throw early, uh, on first down because what else are they going to do when that doesn't work? It's incomplete. It's second and 10. They
try to run the ball to get back on track. Their success rate on those designed runs is 11.1%. Fourth lowest in the NFL. And really their run game overall isn't good this year because Jeremiah loves hurt Tyler. I was here. We love him. He's not a number one and the offensive lines banked up. So they are truly a one dimensional offense, uh, without the quarterback to make it work like the Bengals have with Burrow and Chase and T. Both of them pass at similar rates. One of them is actually equipped to do it. And you just can't play offense this way. It's going to look like this until they get better dudes.
01:03:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, and unfortunately for the Cardinals on this one, obviously, fortunately, if you're a Seahawks fan, Minshew actually threw the ball downfield more in this game than he did the previous game that was so electric against the Cowboys. He just wasn't very good at it this time around. The big reason why is because when you look at how Gardner Minshew played against zone coverage against the Cowboys, I mean, he tore it up. He absolutely tore it. Came in the game off the bench in relief of Jacoby Brissett, and he was incredible and fearless against zone coverage, and we saw them come back and win that game because of it. The Seahawks basically said, okay, well, guess what? We're not going to give you this game. whole lot of zone coverage. And they played a lot of man coverage in this game, and Minshew had just a 3.8 yards per attempt average against man. And they basically dared Minshew to be pretty pinpoint and perfect as a passer against tight man coverage instead of being able to throw to a spot and throw against zone. And I think it was just that very simple philosophical change that made all the difference in the world and really curbed an offense that was able to come back and beat the Cowboys the week before and only three points against Seattle this week.
01:04:24
Speaker 2: Texans Chargers. Boy, this was not close. I hope the Chargers start trading people now. They don't sound like they are. Which is insanity to me, dude. You're 0-8. Trade people. Get out of some contracts.
01:04:43
Speaker 1: It's one of those things where I wonder if they were, because they're 0-8, I wonder if they were 3-5, 2-7 even. They're trading players off. But because they're 0-8, and because it's looked the way it's looked, I wonder if everybody in that building goes, we start trading players, we might as well put our house up for sale. Like, we're all just going to be gone. And maybe they are anyways. But, you know.
01:05:17
Speaker 2: That's my thought. I think that's kind of inevitable at this point. Hey, hey, hey.
01:05:22
Speaker 1: Our producer in the chat is telling us still can technically finish 9-8. Okay.
01:05:28
Speaker 3: Right? Right?
01:05:31
Speaker 2: Like, there's lotto tickets, and then there's whatever that is.
01:05:34
Speaker 1: You got to believe. It starts to believe. And it sounds like you're not believing.
01:05:40
Speaker 2: Can we put whatever the next-gen stats... playoff odds are for the Chargers? I know they're technically not mathematically eliminated. Can we just put that on screen? And is it less than a percent? Because I bet it is.
01:05:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know.
01:05:52
Speaker 1: I don't know if it is or not. But, like, all that to say, again, I think because it's so bad that, like, Joe Ortiz, why would he sell players off at this point?
01:06:05
Speaker 2: I'm sorry. They just said it's 0.6%.
01:06:07
Speaker 1: Oh, no, 0.06%. Oh, my God. What?
01:06:15
Speaker 2: So you're saying there's a chance, Keanu.
01:06:18
Speaker 1: I said that it all starts with belief. Oh, my God. Can you imagine if the Chargers went 9-8? We're the hottest team in the NFL. Nobody wanted to play them, but they don't get in the playoffs because they're 9-8.
01:06:36
Speaker 2: Which, honestly, I bet that has happened in Chargers history before because if there's anything that would have happened to it, it's the Chargers.
01:06:43
Speaker 1: That's very true. That's very true.
01:06:45
Speaker 2: Anyway, we probably should talk about the Texans a little bit. C.J. Stroud was great in this game. I mean, speaking of passing maps, throw C.J. 's on screen. It does not get better than this. Working the entire field. Left, right, middle, deep, short. He was perfect. He was perfect in this game. Well, other than the interception. But he was mostly perfect in this game. Nico Collins made arguably the catch of the year. Tank Dell got involved. Had a huge touchdown early in this game. Welcome back, Tank Dell. The defense had eight sacks in this game. First time that they've had eight sacks since week 12 of last season against the Bills. Which, surprise, surprise, the Texans have had two seasons in a row where they've had an eight sack game. The pass rush finally woke up. There was nothing wrong with the Texans in this game. First time all season that there's been nothing wrong with Houston. And now, their playoff odds... for a three and five team are back up to 35% just from this. So it's, it's going to take a lot of work for them to really get back into it, but you could look up in a couple of weeks and they're five and five and they're alive for a seven seed, especially if they play like this. All right, that'll wrap it up for our week nine reaction show. As always, thank you for watching and listening wherever you happen to be watching and listening. We have our mid season award show happening this week. So keep an eye out for that. That's also going to be on NFL channel on fast, you know, Roku and wherever you can find that it's going to be on all of our audio platforms. And then we have our week 10 preview coming out also later this week. So it is a heavy, heavy week for us. I'm Brett. That's Trevor for Mitchell Keanu, Callie, Nick, the whole team, Fabian, everybody. Thank you once again. And we'll see you in a few days. Thank you for listening to our Week 9 Reaction Show. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.