TRASCRIZIONE 🔗
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Do you believe in ghosts?
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No, but there are things like ghost armies.
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Ghost armies.
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It's a bit like defense fraud.
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It's soldiers who don't exist, entire armies designed to fool the enemy.
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So we're talking about military grade trick or treating.
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These can really affect the course of a war.
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The fact that they didn't exist really changed the strategy and tactics for their compatriots.
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So we're talking about huge powers like Russia, China, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, other places too.
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So this Halloween exposing the armies that aren't really there.
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And I would say to your politics at the moment is frightening enough.
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Well, that sounds like a Halloween special to me.
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Conflicts of interest brought to you by ACLED.
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Welcome to Conflict of Interest.
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My name is Cleaner Raleigh and I'm with the lovely and not at all frightening Braun.
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Actually, you you are a bit frightening.
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I would imagine that you can send a difficult email.
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Yeah, and I did, I I used to really enjoy being quite frightening, you know.
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And sometimes if I go out in the town I grew up in, I'll be like, can you get out of the way, please?
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Someone will be like, oh, that's Bronn.
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And I remember I did used to be quite frightening.
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But not so much anymore.
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And the only thing I suppose that I do that frequently frightens you, Cleaner, is my PR brain draws connections.
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And that is why I've managed to convince you to talk to me about ghost armies in the spirit of Halloween.
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Well, in fairness, I'm not crazy by Halloween, but I do like this topic.
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I think it's an important one.
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Yeah, and it definitely makes sense.
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So this one I think you first mentioned when we were talking about Yemen recently.
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But I'm sure we will get to that because I want to start right at the beginning with what we actually mean by ghost armies, what the kind of examples of that are and what they're used for.
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Why do they exist in the first place?
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And how is that possible?
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Yeah, so a ghost army refers to kind of hollow forces.
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So there was an original ghost
Load full transcript
army, which I'll tell you about in just a second.
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Little story time.
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But now it really is about military corruption, conscription, and audits.
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How do you audit the military?
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They're such enormous entities.
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And what you often find is waste, but the waste has to be channeled in some way, and it is often channeled with not the waste, but I guess the corruption, if you will, right?
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So there's waste and there's corruption, they're separate.
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The corruption is certainly about claiming that, you know, whole battalions exist that don't.
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And so somebody's pocketing those salaries and everything else that goes into it.
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But it has a little bit to do with the effectiveness of military forces.
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You've got a country like Eritrea that not only has national conscription, but it's endless, right?
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So you can be dragged into that military at any point in your life, especially men, of course.
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That has led to a mass about migration, often through non-legal means from Eritrea, but also a huge amount of young Eritrean men and women, of course, are killed on the battlefield for the fact that they have not been well trained and they're certainly not well treated.
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If you have something like that, where you have a large conscripted army, the waste is going to be in providing for those troops, right?
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So uniforms or food or lodging or whatever the case.
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That's where people are going to try to somehow claw back that money.
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If you have an army like or a military like the US, where you know you want really top-of-the-line innovative projects, it's going to be in the waste that comes from contracts for external entities or private military contracts and all the rest of it, where basically you're overcharged, things run long, a lot of money changes hands.
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So that's the kind of snapshot of the role that this has.
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Take us back then for this story time of the original Ghost Army.
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Yeah, so this is a really interesting story.
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It's about World War II, and it's the US 23rd Headquarters Special Troops, roughly 1,100 men who impersonated much larger formations in Europe after D-Day.
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Okay, so they used inflatable tanks and artillery sound trucks, fake radio traffic, and stage details like counterfeit unit insignia.
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They were trying to plant intelligence in cafe succession.
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So their best known operation is Versem in
March 1945.
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And it simulated two divisions to draw German attention away from the real crossing in the Rhine.
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And the unit was classified for decades.
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Many of its members, this is what I absolutely love, many of its members were artists and designers who went on to have quite notable careers.
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And now the term is sometimes used as this modern decoy.
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Russia and Ukraine have both made heavy use of inflatable and wooden decoys to soak up drones and missiles, which is an interesting kind of way in which they're trying to deal with being a target, right?
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So you create fake targets.
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You know, I would actually say that World War II, beyond being a really fascinating discussion of like the alliance structures and how it was fought over those years, there are some really fantastic innovations that happened there that weren't, you know, equipment or technology, but Monuments Men is a great book and it's a it's a really good film about this.
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And of course, this is also a really interesting discussion about deception and its role in the military.
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So the deception angle is a bit like, you know, holding something shiny over here and going, look at this instead, and then then something else is going on after.
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That isn't necessarily how the concept of ghost armies is reflected today, right?
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So now it's really about payroll fraud, as I mentioned.
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So it refers to names on a military payroll who don't exist and have deserted or have died while the commanders keep collecting their salaries and their rations.
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So in the Ukraine-Russian situation, especially in the Russian situation, it is about people who have died and they are not declared so.
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You and I have discussed before there's an enormous problem here with fatality numbers coming out of that conflict.
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And this is one of the reasons.
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So you get a situation in Russia where you have what's called fatality suppression, which is the opposite of what you have in many other cases where you get fatality exaggeration.
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So all sorts of reasons why fatality numbers are purposefully manipulated, which is something we've said many, many times before.
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There's other quite famous cases, I would say.
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Iraq 2014, where after Mosul fell, Prime Minister Abadi said that the audit had found there was about 50,000 non-existent soldiers on those books.
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And they looked strong on paper.
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They were not able to actually contribute to the conflict, of course, because they didn't exist.
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In Afghanistan, US inspectors spent years warning that reported Afghan security force numbers, which are around 300,000, could not be verified and looked massively inflated by ghost personnel.
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The real fighting strength, especially in 2021, was found to be far, far lower, which explains really how quickly that force unraveled.
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And that kind of corruption, which is that the US was paying for that army to be trained, etc., means that there were many people at the very top level of the Afghan defense and, of course, political structures that were benefiting from enormous amounts of US money.
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They were unable to then win or take territory because they didn't exist.
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And then it's very common to find this issue in Nigeria, South Sudan, or DRC, for example.
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They have these recurring payroll scandals all the time.
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Biometric registration drives turning up large numbers of fictitious soldiers.
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In South Sudan and in other places too, these inflated numbers are a tool of patronage.
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And they feed Allied commanders and militias through salaries, of course, from these fake people.
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Now, I kind of wanted to talk about what patronage is, right?
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How it creates corruption, how certain things are kind of favored as the main means by which you would redistribute, let's say they're often called in academic literature, state rents.
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Effectively, it's money that the state's getting in and then it's redistributing, but not to public goods like a security force, but to elites within the system in order for them to support the structure as it is, whether it's the leader or the combination of elites at the very, very top.
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A patronage system is designed to effectively make sure that people are, for lack of a better term, paid off to keep the current political system, by which I mean it's people in place.
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So people are often given really good positions, or they're given additional money, or probably most commonly, there's impunity about their known corruption.
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So that I'm not going to go after you if you do these terrible things, and you're going to support me when it really comes down to it.
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You're not going to support like a challenger or somebody in the coup, or you're not going to support even somebody within who wants to challenge my rule.
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That's how it works, right?
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And that's really what Saudi Arabia found in that when they went to try to prevent the Houthis in recent weeks
from taking areas in the southwest of the state and those islands, they found that the opposition, whom they had been funding, right, and who made up the security forces of the internationally recognized government of Yemen really were paper.
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It was a ghost running.
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Yeah, I think this is where it first came up between you and I, wasn't it?
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And I think it was it like 20% of the of the fighters don't show up.
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So whose interests does this serve?
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Like where's the money going, firstly?
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But then the reality is, you know, you get called into something and there's not as many people as you're expecting, right?
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That that can't be positive.
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Yeah, but I mean, when do you ever, you know, take a good look at the entire army just standing around and do us, you know, do a headcount, right?
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You'd never do that.
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Okay, let's just say you're Riyadh.
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I'm the head of the opposition forces, let's say in Yemen.
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I say, listen, we need to get more money out of Riyadh.
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And I say, I'm gonna pretend that this service has grown by 20%.
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I need names, fake names, fake date of births, you know, fake locations, all the rest of it.
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I'm gonna send that and say that our, you know, we've done a recruitment drive and this is who our new recruits are.
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They're gonna send back salaries.
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I'm gonna pocket that.
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I'm also gonna make sure that you get your cut, right?
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And so, in a sense where there's very poor auditing, this makes a lot of sense to everybody on the ground.
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I remember that there was a statement about this in reference to how Russia, before they invaded Ukraine, had this problem a losh, right?
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Defense spending more broadly, whether even if it's not payroll spending, is kind of notoriously, notoriously awash with fraud.
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You have a doubling of defense spending in the last few years, a lot of that's going into people's pockets.
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It's certainly not going to provide public security.
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So there's kickbacks on big procurement deals.
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This often happens, of course, when politicians or constituencies are involved in these deals.
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So it's going to happen a lot more in democracies, that particular type of issue.
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Whereas diverting budgets or suppliers frauding the buyer, that can also happen a lot in democracies.
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And then the selling in the promotions and positions, which is actually a problem in the Saudi army, in the sense that they're not sold, but they are given to princes within the royal family who are not capable of doing it.
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And then so they're ineffective in that job.
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That's a form of patronage.
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But China had this enormous problem in that people were buying positions, and that happens m more in autocratic states.
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So the financial side makes sense to invested parties, right?
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It's a it's a system and they can make the most out of it.
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It's like every day there's a new benefits fraud story in the UK.
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It's it's people taking advantage of the situation, right?
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But when that service is needed, isn't that a a lose-lose?
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I mean, who's at who's going to get in trouble, right?
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So first you have to figure out who orchestrated it.
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Often these things go on for quite a while.
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The procurement issue, for example, they may lose the contract, but they'll get it back later.
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The individuals within who've, let's say, pocketed that, that is illegal, right?
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But I don't think you hear a huge number of fraud cases within the armed forces being successfully brought to trial.
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So there's a sense that they're going to protect the reputation from what there is of those types of cases being brought up.
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But I will say that there is a US audit office that's been set up for the Defense Department.
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And the US defense industry broadly, or the US, I think basically I think the US military has um never passed an audit.
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Never.
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They've failed every single audit.
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That's really surprising, given the patriotism and pride that's associated with the military in the dates.
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So I've got some of the details here, right?
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The US Defense Department has never passed an audit.
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It has failed every audit since becoming mandatory in 2018.
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The 2024 round was the seventh straight failure, with officials still able to fully account for$824 billion budget with a clean audit now targeted for 2028.
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The earlier round found that nearly half of roughly 4 trillion in assets could not be accounted for.
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Okay.
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First thought, it's only been mandatory since 2018.
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That feels really l recent.
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Second thought is if I said to you, oh yeah, I've I've written this thing and I know it's not right yet, sorry, but it should be right in two years, I can't see that going down very well.
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How have they landed on 2028?
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We should be able to get this right.
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I really don't know, but I will say this, right?
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2018, Donald Trump was in office, right?
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Whatever process started in 2018, it's not great to hear it.
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In 10 years we'll get it right.
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That's a good point.
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But it says here that the Government Accountability Office has kept defense weapons acquisition, financial management, and contract management on its high risk list for decades.
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Its annual weapons system assessments are the best source on cost overruns and delays by program.
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And the F-35 is the most studied case.
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So this is basically where people are getting kickbacks all throughout the process.
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It's being really, really stretched out.
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And so people kind of continue the money.
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The Defense Business Board, an internal study, identified around$125 billion in potential administrative savings over five years.
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That was reportedly suppressed and became a story only when reported by the Washington Post.
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The reports by Transdigim in 2019-2021 found that excess profits on sole source parts were good illustration of legal overcharging, which is distinct from fraud, but that's that happens a lot.
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In wartime contracting, there was an estimated 30 to 60 billion lost on waste and fraud in Iraq and Afghanistan contracting.
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SIGAR, Afghanistan, which is Special Inspectors General, produced years of detailed reporting about how money and inflated force numbers interacted with the collapse of the Afghan security forces.
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You know, this is interesting because there's a little bit of a similarity to the fact I was just chatting last night with somebody who runs quite a big granting organization in the States.
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He said one of the things that they think about a lot is how a lot of money can really ruin an organization if they get it all at once, because they cannot absorb it, right?
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So it does lead to waste.
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Waste is the best thing it could possibly lead to, you know, or corruption in other cases.
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So it's really interesting that Trump was the guy that brought this in because, you know, for for whatever you want to say about him, he's a businessman, right?
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So he would be looking out for waste, I guess.
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Um and then when we're talking about the the corruption and the contracts and stuff, have you seen the film War Dogs with Jonah Hill?
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No, actually I have not.
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It's silly and it's supposed to be a comedy, so it's very but it's essentially about the bidding process to be the kind of responsible supplier of whatever it is for the states, and so somehow he ends up being one and it's a whole thing.
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And I watched it because it looked funny, but actually, the by no means it was I think lots of people have interpreted that it's a true story, it's not, it's written by a guy who had some role to play in it, not true story.
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But so the elements of that bidding process are made quite clear in that, and so that's my sort of only awareness of this.
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Do you think it's the case that maybe the states isn't particularly bad in the grand scheme of things, but because they're more advanced in some other areas, they're actually kind of digging into and exposing that we're just able to point at the numbers and the figures with the states.
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Whereas if we're looking at with Saudi, who would be the person to say, right, we need an audit today?
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Yeah, yeah, it's a good point.
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So I will say that kind of rigorous public auditing is concentrated in countries that have some of the least significant problems, right?
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Because they have the institutions to do it, like Russia, China, Egypt, Eritrea, most African militaries, I would say.
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Their analysis on like Transparency International, investigative journalism, leaked documents, like they don't have the same resonance as they would elsewhere.
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I guess I I just think that there is, you know, the militaries have this very, very important public function.
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They get a tremendous amount of money.
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They have increased the share of the budget that they get everywhere.
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In fact, one of the biggest issues in Britain just at the moment is about the defense spending.
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And everybody wants to claim that it's because the central government doesn't want to spend more on defense because they don't have it.
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And that's partially true.
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But it's also true that the defense industry needs to be much better at accounting for this enormous amount of money it takes from the state and be effective with that amount of money, because that's very possible if it was used
well.
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But waste and corruption are features of any system that has this much money.
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And then to basically claim, well, I'm we're unaccountable for it because we're we provide such an important public service is what typically gets them out of having to account for it.
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And it creates this real sense of confusion, I think, within the general public.
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They don't believe that the military can use this money well, it certainly can, right?
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But they also believe that that it's very difficult to find corruption and to root it out, which is true.
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But what I would say is that the more I learn about corruption at the very top, or the fact that people have impunity for these types of things that's growing, even within democratic states, at the very top, that becomes criminality somewhere down the system.
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And so to me, it's all linked about public trust, public money, public service, and criminality and corruption.
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And so with the way the world is right now, there's a really high level of state conflict, conflict involving the state, isn't there?
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And so if this is going on on kind of all fronts, almost every single military we've mentioned today is busy doing one thing or another across the world at the moment.
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Which direction is this going in?
00:18:44.160 --> 00:18:44.880
Is this getting worse?
00:18:45.119 --> 00:18:49.359
Uh, yeah, it's 100% getting worse, especially as you mentioned with that amount of money.
00:18:49.519 --> 00:18:52.000
But it does three things that are really, really bad.
00:18:52.160 --> 00:18:54.960
It hollows out capabilities, like you were just saying.
00:18:55.200 --> 00:18:59.039
You think you have this capable partner that you've paid for several times over.
00:18:59.200 --> 00:19:00.319
It's not there, right?
00:19:00.559 --> 00:19:06.799
Which means that you're now going to expose yourself to more danger because your partner on the ground isn't there.
00:19:06.880 --> 00:19:10.640
Or in fact, you've not been sent the right equipment in the right way because of this.
00:19:10.880 --> 00:19:16.079
They had that problem in the Strait of Hormuz, where they were not supporting or they're not equipping US soldiers.
00:19:16.319 --> 00:19:20.079
And in fact, it was a US Navy sufficiently in those places.
00:19:20.319 --> 00:19:22.960
It's kind of a tool of ruling the place, right?
00:19:23.039 --> 00:19:30.240
It's this patronage corruption system that keeps these important people at the very top because they're spreading the wealth out to the people who are necessary.
00:19:30.720 --> 00:19:32.960
But it's theft, basically, right?
00:19:33.039 --> 00:19:37.839
It's theft that basically is institutionalized within people who are benefiting.
00:19:38.079 --> 00:19:44.960
And this opacity, which is that we can't possibly explain where this money went, is the warning sign, right?
00:19:45.359 --> 00:19:47.759
We can all explain where our money went, right?
00:19:48.160 --> 00:19:53.599
Especially an enormous defense department, no matter where it is in the world, will have records.
00:19:53.680 --> 00:19:53.839
Yeah.
00:19:53.920 --> 00:19:57.039
And those records will be like two trillion of assets have gone missing.
00:19:57.200 --> 00:19:57.519
Yeah.
00:19:57.680 --> 00:20:02.240
I can't always explain where mine has gone if I've spent any time in TK Maxx.
00:20:02.720 --> 00:20:03.039
I know.
00:20:03.200 --> 00:20:03.359
Yeah.
00:20:03.599 --> 00:20:04.960
TK Max does add up.
00:20:05.119 --> 00:20:05.599
I'll say that.
00:20:05.839 --> 00:20:06.079
Yeah.
00:20:06.480 --> 00:20:07.119
Out of nowhere.
00:20:07.359 --> 00:20:07.599
Yeah.
00:20:07.680 --> 00:20:19.440
I will say one other thing that's important is that these private military contractors who are sometimes brought in in order to supplement the forces that people believe to exist that didn't, like Blackwater and all the rest of it.
00:20:19.680 --> 00:20:28.799
They're brought in in order to deal with the fact that there isn't enough force, there isn't enough uh bodies who are able to fight on the ground.
00:20:28.960 --> 00:20:34.000
And they have an incredibly poor rate of civilian protection.
00:20:34.240 --> 00:20:41.519
So we are putting more civilians in harm by having any sort of corruption within the military forces because of this.
00:20:41.680 --> 00:20:48.240
And the second thing is that they are, as a subject of their contract, they enjoy total impunity about what they're going to do.
00:20:48.319 --> 00:20:52.480
There's no accountability for their actions because of how they were hired in those contracting.
00:20:52.640 --> 00:20:59.519
And, you know, it's led to extremely wealthy people who are mercenaries because of this corruption.
00:20:59.759 --> 00:21:10.319
So, you know, recently when there was all of the issues to do with the funding and the money around the reform party, and then reform investigated themselves and concluded, yeah, no wrongdoing.
00:21:11.200 --> 00:21:13.440
Is that what's likely to happen?
00:21:13.599 --> 00:21:19.200
You know, if people continue to look into this, is it in those who are looking into its interests to conclude that everything's fine?
00:21:19.440 --> 00:21:21.519
I mean, it depends.
00:21:21.599 --> 00:21:26.640
Like, I I don't think any heads have rolled over, you know, several years of failed audits.
00:21:26.799 --> 00:21:36.160
I don't think that anybody's been fired from the UK military for not being able to account for the money that could make up for a shortfall in funding other parts of it.
00:21:36.319 --> 00:21:43.920
I think there's a performance of administrative and bureaucratic assessment, but yeah, I don't think that.
00:21:44.240 --> 00:21:44.559
No.
00:21:44.799 --> 00:21:47.200
Maybe we should do a poll with our listenership.
00:21:47.440 --> 00:21:55.440
In your job, if you said, oh no, I'm sorry, I don't know where that money's gone, ha ha, would that be the end of the story for you?
00:21:55.759 --> 00:21:57.759
Oh God, can you imagine Amanda?
00:21:58.480 --> 00:22:01.359
She'd be like, I don't understand what you just said.
00:22:02.480 --> 00:22:04.480
I can't account for this coffee, Amanda.
00:22:04.559 --> 00:22:04.960
I really can't.
00:22:05.039 --> 00:22:06.319
I don't know where the receipt is.
00:22:06.559 --> 00:22:07.599
Yeah, really sorry.
00:22:07.680 --> 00:22:11.920
I'm in the same boat with the uh microphone that went missing that I tried to order for Tiziano.
00:22:12.079 --> 00:22:14.079
It's got lost in the post, and I'm sorry.
00:22:14.559 --> 00:22:16.480
Yeah, we're we're sorry, Amanda.
00:22:16.640 --> 00:22:21.039
We are all right, I think that's uh that's it for today.
00:22:21.200 --> 00:22:26.240
Um please come back where we'll discuss the impacts of this and other things in future episodes.
00:22:26.559 --> 00:22:31.119
Yeah, and I'll do my best to come up with some more themed weeks because I love them.
00:22:31.839 --> 00:22:40.799
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00:22:41.039 --> 00:22:46.559
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