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Welcome back to City Speak.
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I'm your guest host today.
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My name is Dante Moreno.
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I serve as the finance administration and intergovernmental relations advocate at the National League of Cities.
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Citiespeak gives listeners an insider's view of what local leadership in America means today and features conversations with government leaders and policy experts regarding the biggest issues and challenges facing America's cities, towns, and villages.
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Newly proposed census rules will not only change who is counted in the upcoming decennial census in 2030, but where and how.
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Among other changes, the rule proposes to not count visa holders, refugees, or undocumented residents for apportionment reasons, despite the long-held US tradition of counting every resident during the decennial census.
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This change is expected to lead to an undercount of residents, which will decrease a city's political representation and power, as well as their state and federal funding allocations.
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Joining me to discuss the impacts on local governments is Tempe, Arizona council member and NLC second vice president, Doreen Garland.
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Councilmember Garland, welcome to Cities Speak.
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Thank you so much.
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I'm happy to be here with you.
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This is a very important topic.
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Well, I really appreciate you being here.
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Before we jump into it, can you give us an overview of Tempe?
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I'll just give you a little one.
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Tempe is a population of about 190,000 people.
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We are bordering Phoenix and Scottsdale.
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And we have one of the largest universities in the country, which is Arizona State University, and that is right in our downtown area.
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That campus, it increases our population in the city by about 55,000 people.
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When the kids get here, that's also including like 3,400 faculty and in the mix.
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So our population significantly increases when the ASU is here.
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We are also have a very strong manufacturing area.
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We have Honeywell here, we have Coca-Cola within our community, and we have the most beautiful town lake in downtown Tempe that after the Grand Canyon, it's the second most visited place in the state.
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And it's it really boosts up our economy having it here.
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But with all that and being a really incredibly vibrant community, we are also, you know, a really, really in the middle of a growing population area, population boom area in the United States.
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And with that, numbers are really important, making sure that we can deliver essential um services to our communities.
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That is fascinating.
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I did not realize that your population sort of swunk 55,000.
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Is that crazy?
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I know it's amazing.
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I recognize it when summer break, because when it's right across the street from the city hall.
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So when I go to city hall, when school's in session, it takes me an awful lot longer to get to my office.
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Lots of kids.
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Wow, that is that is really something there.
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Um I know that you were first elected in 2020.
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Uh there was a lot happening at that moment.
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There was COVID.
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Um, you were a newly elected member.
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Do you have any recollection of what the decennial census was like in Tempe in 2020?
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Well, the one thing I I recognized is how we all across the city and across the state recognized that we were massively undercounted.
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Um we figured um through other numbers that we looked at, but it was probably around 48,000 people that were undercounted in um in the state of Arizona.
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And since we all expected these higher numbers and we did not get those, that makes a huge difference in funding for our communities.
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And um, you know, when we look at that, what they didn't do is they didn't check what we called group porters, um, which means they didn't do doom dormitories with having ASU, that's pretty important.
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They didn't do correctional facilities, they didn't do um military housing and nursing homes.
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And that, I believe, helped to the large undercount that we had here in Arizona and in Tempe.
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You really kind of brought this back.
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I think when people think of the census, first of all, it doesn't feel like a number one priority for city leaders who are dealing with all of the other things that you all have to deal with every single day.
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And a lot of them are urgent priorities.
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And the census happens once every 10 years.
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Um, and it just sort of feels like that thing that'll happen, that the federal government does, it doesn't really feel like a city issue.
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But I mean, you pointed out that because Arizona was undercounted, not only was your
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representation decreased, you know, your residents aren't getting the representation that they should, but it also impacts not only your federal funding, but it can impact the funding that you get from the state of Arizona down to the cities.
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There are some significant changes being proposed to the decennial census right now.
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Uh, it's not a long document, but it's a meaty document.
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Can you share what initially jumped out at you when you first saw those proposed changes?
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This new rule would mean reduced funding in Tempe in a lot of different ways.
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And you know, we looked at state uh shared funding, and that state, that number, that data number, that status number that we get from the census, that tells us how much funding we are going to be getting distributed to our local cities and towns from the state.
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So the distribution from the U.S.
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Census Bureau looks at the number from the July 1st, I think, the year before.
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And if that number is not accurate, our state's shared revenue really drops.
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And we need those fundings for a lot of important things that happen in the city.
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Um, it also will be affect, so it'll be affecting the dollars that we get in for our community for human services.
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If you think about our community block grants, our home grants, um, and other critical housing funding, if that census number is wrong, then we are not going to be able to get the funding that we need to work on our housing.
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Um, and it's coming at the worst possible time that we have in the country right now where we are short housing and construction costs continue to climb.
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So if we don't have those that number correct and we don't get the funding we get, that affects all of that.
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Um, the other thing that I think that it affects for us in the community that we think about, or I think about as a member of the Navajo Nation, is that the Census Bureau also eliminated four out of the six testing sites across the US.
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So one of them was established on our tribal communities.
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So there is the poorest communities in the country.
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It's part of Indian country where they don't have access to paved roads, they don't have a lot of one running water going to their homes.
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By restricting the resource of being able to get to that, the testing sites, this Arizona tribal communities, they will continue to be undercounted.
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And that makes for a disadvantage that has been happening for decades and will continue to happen if we don't do it in the right, in the right way.
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And the other thing that that rule really pops out to me and for the communities, because I volunteer for an organization that oversees a TEMPE, um uh Tempe School District, it's we help get additional funding or try to get funding for teachers and for students because they are a Title I district.
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This census poverty and population data informs um education and Title I funding allocations, that could seriously affect the students in the school districts that are in Tempe, and that's pretty scary.
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No, thank you for that, uh, council member.
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I think it's interesting that you brought up the census test site.
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Um Arizona was one of six test sites uh planned for earlier this year.
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Uh, at the last moment, we did see it was changed, and they they decreased the Census Bureau, decreased uh the test sites from six to two.
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Very importantly, eliminating not only testing in all the tribal areas chosen, but also all the rural areas.
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And this is the second time uh or the second decade in a row where no rural areas are being tested prior to the decennial census.
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So definitely a concerning trend considering we'll never have a perfect census, but I think we can always strive toward perfection.
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And the only way to do that is through accurate testing.
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We're never going to be perfect, but if we're removing test sites and we're removing locations where we want to do those test sites, we are not, we are going farther away from getting accurate numbers.
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And again, yes, you're right, we will never be perfect, but if we're going backwards, we're going back down the hill, and we can't do that.
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We can't do that.
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We're making it harder to get accurate numbers, and that's not the right way to go.
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And I think you flagged a couple of the many ways that municipalities use um census data because it does feel like this sort of wonky federal government issue.
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How does it impact me as a locality?
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Um, and the funding piece is a huge part of it.
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I know a lot of cities, um, each decennial do their best to meet their community development block round threshold.
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I know that 50,000 population number is one a lot of mid-sized cities are always striving to hit and count everybody.
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But you hit the nail on the head with the state revenue sharing.
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Even if you're not a big city, if you're not going out for big federal grants, you are
still getting state revenue funding.
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You are still getting other sorts of funding, and that's your residents' taxpayer dollars being returned to them.
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Um, and you need accurate numbers to make sure uh that it returns to your community.
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Uh, the rule would also exclude non-citizens and non-permanent residents from the apportionment count, which includes people here on visas.
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I know some students from ASU might be here on visas and faculty, refugees and undocumented residents.
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From the municipal perspective, what would those changes mean in practical terms for Tempe?
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Would there be any impacts to municipal services?
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Well, of course there would be, because again, it's the revenue that we get from the state share dollars that come into our community that help us do human services in our community.
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It helps improve all the other services, the libraries, all these other things that people in our communities use, that we would no longer have the funding to be able to use those those dollars.
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Um, and I think when you think about, if you specifically think about wanting to make sure that you're doing an accurate count to the people in your community, um, Maricopa County has about 225,000 undocumented immigrants that were listed from a survey that was done in 2023.
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Um and if you think about that and you think about the population of that same time, it's about 5% of the population.
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And if with this new rule, what will happen is that the new proposed question on the legal status, it'll cause fewer people to want to fill out the census form due to fears right now.
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If you think about the ICE issues of dealing with the fears of immigration agents targeting specific homes in your area, that would again cause our numbers to go down drastically.
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And again, we're caring for every person in our community.
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If somebody needs help or services or somebody needs something, we're not first checking to make sure that you know what their status is.
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We're checking that we're there to help people and we're there to take care of all the people that are in our community.
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It by changing this rule, it is by far the least efficient way to spend federal dollars on behalf of the people in your community.
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Least efficient.
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You mentioned, you know, that Tempe or Maricopa County has an undocumented population, as do most, if not all, populations across the country, people live where they live.
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You know, it's really interesting because one in four American-born children live with a parent that has a mixed status, lived in a family of mixed status.
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And you had mentioned education earlier.
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I know not every city deals with their education funding, but education as a whole is always important for the community.
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And children are always undercounted.
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And I know there are concerns that if there was a legal status question or a citizenship question on the census, that more families would choose not to answer the question, which would of course lead to decreased funding for education, for housing, for all the other points that you had mentioned.
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What I think is really sad about that is that it trickles down.
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If we do not have, again, if we do not have this accurate counting, if if this rule goes into effect, these rules go into effect, the trickle down is going to be the most vulnerable in our communities.
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And it's going to be our children, it's going to be our seniors, it's going to be those people who need more assistance.
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The trickle-down effect is dangerous for our communities.
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And that is what is going to happen to us.
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And it's not just the larger communities, it's not the 190,000 approximately that are in the city of Tempe.
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It is cities, towns, and villages across the country of all sizes that will be living with the effect of the undercount.
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The proposal would change when people are counted too.
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Right now, the Census Bureau counts a person's usual residence as the one that they spend the majority of their time in.
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However, the new proposal would count people instead where they are at the majority of the time, specifically from January 3rd to April 1st.
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I suspect that Tempe might get some snowbirds from northern states who might live the majority of their time in a different state, but during that time period might be enjoying the warmer weather down in Tempe.
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How do you see that affecting Tempe and also cities in all regions of the country?
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Well, Tempele, Tempe does get our snowbirds each winter, but they're not as significant a slice of our population compared to the other communities that are here in Arizona.
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Our largest influx of outside population, it consists mainly of our students that come into town who will be in school during those months of testing.
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For Tempe, I think a major problem is the plan to stop testing group quarters.
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That to me is for us, that affects us more.
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So, you know, as I said earlier, the dormitories and the nursing homes for Tempe, not counting those areas really would put us down as, again, further undercount our population.
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And that, again, makes it difficult for us to qualify for needed funding to meet the demands of our residents and our temporary residents that come into Tempe every year.
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This proposal would also bar race, ethnicity, and sexual orientation questions from the Census Forum.
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Race and ethnicity questions have been asked on the decennial census since 1790, when the US had its very first census.
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And there are currently no sexual orientation questions included or proposed, but it would bar them from ever being included in the questionnaire.
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While the census information can feel very data heavy, do you have any examples of how race and ethnicity data has been used by Tempe before?
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Well, I will I'll just say first off, we're not going to be able to understand the full depth of our city's demographics if this rule moves forward.
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That's just that's just what's going to happen.
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There are many grants that are regional and local that have historically included formulas that give credit or points of scoring improvements to projects that specifically address more vulnerable populations, which are the ones that you had mentioned.
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For example, the Biden administration, we qualified for funds to increase our the trees we planted.
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This formula had some scoring advantages for us in Tempe that focused on lower socioeconomic numbers and higher heat impacts, which was helpful for us because we were able then to put in the shade canopy areas that were needed in these areas.
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So that really hit the city of Tempe and is something that we were able to use because of demographics and information like that.
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We also had um we had another one that helped out with our transportation because areas that were car-free households scored better for in the city of Tempe, and we were able to use funding in those areas also.
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So again, I think trying to get as much information as possible out of these census numbers is going to help be able to help us across the board in every area for our communities.
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I think a lot of people, when they see that the the US government is asking them those questions, they feel a little bit um uncomfortable.
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They don't know why it's being asked.
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But it is really interesting.
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You know, I know a lot of municipal planning departments use them.
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Um, and it really has been sort of a thorough line for us since 1790 asking.
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It's not a new development.
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And it shouldn't be changed.
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There, I mean, the qu some questions that are asked may be difficult, but in the long run, it pays off for the communities that are served by those numbers.
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So we need to have them.
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And I know Tempe is a larger community out there.
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You might be able to find other data sources or pay for them, but I know a lot of communities across the country, especially smaller and more rural communities, census data is their only form of accurate data out there.
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And so if you you lose it, you lose everything.
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Absolutely.
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Yeah, absolutely.
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Census issues can be hard for cities, towns, and villages to get engaged with because it happens once a decade.
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There's turnover.
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Again, it's one of those feels bureaucratic and administrative and far away from the city priorities that you're dealing with every day.
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Even though it drives funding decisions from the state and federal government, as well as your businesses, your nonprofits, uh, and the city itself, of course, it doesn't really feel like it's tackling urgent issues.
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Uh, what would you say to other local elected leaders who may not yet be engaged on census?
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Why does it matter that they show up and respond to these proposed changes?
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So accurate population counts are necessary to ensure we can provide critical services to our residents and our visitors.
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And it does seem like four years is a long way off to be able to think about this.
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Right now is a time to engage with our representatives to reach out to the administration right now to let them know what your first hand experiences are and what the impacts of this rule change will make on your community.
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And, you know, we sit there, and I'm not sure what terms, how long terms are for other elected officials.
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I sit here and think, oh gosh, I've got a four-year term, that's a long time.
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That is not a long time.
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And if you think that the census is going to be coming out or we're going to be doing it in four years, it's going to be proposed and finalized a year or two before that.
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So really, you don't have four years.
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So what I would say to the communities around is do exactly what I did thinking about this podcast or the CitSpeaks that we're going to do is doing more research.
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I think I will not say that that I um was invited onto this Cityspeak conversation with all the knowledge of what this is going to do and that rules and how are the rules going to be affect my community, but I am engaged now.
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Knowing the fact that that this could make such a difference in our city and really impact our bottom line budget, it is really important that we all get an engage.
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We all get the information.
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We reach out to NLC for more information or more help that will make a difference in our communities and not look at it that yes, we have pressing issues.
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I've got a council meeting on Thursday, I really need to get focusing on.
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Yes, those are immediate issues, but if we're not also thinking long term, we are we are going to be causing issues in our community that are unnecessary.
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And we need to reach out and participate.
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Thank you, Councilmember Garland.
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To leave our listeners with kind of one last thought.
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Do you want to share what would happen in 2030 if Tempe's population is undercounted?
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How is that going to impact the city?
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Well, I think it leads to fewer fundings going to our emergency responders, our police who are on the front line.
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It also affects funding available for city services and programs.
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If you think about our parks, our recreation, our class, the classes that we have, the libraries, the services that our community uses, those are going to be affected.
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Again, we talked about Title I, we talked about our students and our kids in our community.
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We'll also see reduced funding for affordable housing projects.
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Tempe is considered a leader in this area by developing new funding resources, but those things will not happen if we don't have accurate numbers.
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You know, we are looking right now at building a workforce housing complex on top of a fire station.
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It's a creative way to use fundings that we have currently to make a difference in our housing.
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If we do not have the accurate numbers, we will not have the funding to move forward on those projects.
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We all have a responsibility to the residents in our community.
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And if we are not getting educated and if we are not reaching out to NLC or to our representatives or to the administration to tell them how important this issue is and the fact that we cannot have rule changes that are going to undercount our communities, we are we're going to be behind and we're going to be losing.
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We need to be reaching out.
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Thank you so much, Councilmember Garland, for stopping by Cities Speak today and breaking down how the census proposed changes to the 2030 decennial census would impact communities and why sharing why an accurate count is so important to cities, towns, and villages across America.
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To our listeners, we encourage you to submit a comment letter by the October 13th deadline sharing how the proposed changes will impact your communities.
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If you would like more information, you can visit nlc.org slash census to find resources on the proposed changes, including an explainer blog, a webinar recording, and a template comment letter.
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If you have any questions or would like more information, please email census at nlc.org.
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Thank you all for listening.
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We'll be back next week with another episode of CitySpeak.
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Thanks for listening to City Speak with Clarence Anthony.
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If you like the show, let us know.
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Share this episode with your friends, and make sure to subscribe.
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We're curious to hear what you think, what you want more of, and how we can improve.
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If you have feedback or an idea for a guest you'd like Clarence to sit down with, send us your thoughts at Cityspeak Podcast at nlc.org.
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Join us next month for a new episode.
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Like and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcast.
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See you next time.