Trascrizione completa di The Biggest Takeaways from the Trump-Xi Summit

5: Who shouted a question at them about Taiwan, and did you talk about Taiwan. He didn't answer that question, and President Trump looked a little bit frustrated. 00:03:04 Speaker 1: Taiwan. 00:03:05 Speaker 3: He does not want to see you, hey, fight for independence, because that would be a very strong confrontation. 00:03:13 Speaker 5: And I heard about they don't say eye to eye on a few pretty major things, and those major things are going to continue to be thorns in the relationship. 00:03:24 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Tim Stenoveek in for David Gera and Sarah Holder. Today on the show Big Take, Asia host Wan Ha takes listeners inside the Trump She summit, what the visit did and didn't accomplish, and what to watch for as Trump and she navigate the warreny Ron and China's ambitions in Taiwan. 00:03:50 Speaker 3: Jeff Mason, John lub Welcome. We're speaking on Friday morning, Beijing time, just ahead of President Trump's departure from China. Now, this summit mark the first visit by a sitting US president to China in nearly a decade. Last time it was also President Trump, he visited in twenty seventeen during his first term. What's changed in the US China relationship since then? 00:04:14 Speaker 4: It was nine years ago, but it feels like it could have been nine million years ago, right. So much has happened since. You've had COVID, you had spy balloons, you had the CFO of Huawei arrested in Canada, Joe Biden's election, two trade wars essentially, and now here is President Trump back in Beijing. 00:04:36 Speaker 5: The relationship has been influenced by a bunch of different factors. Certainly, the COVID pandemic, which happened at the end of President Trump's first term, really soured the President on China. He seems to have gotten over that. You don't hear him bringing it up very often anymore. He was also more ambitious in terms of wanting to crack down an intellectual property theft and some of the other foreigns in the relationship during his first term. Now he's more focused on getting business deals and getting some support from President She about the Iran War. Some of that economic ambition seems to have changed, and yet the president also really wants to have a relationship with China that is good for the economy of the United States. 00:05:26 Speaker 3: Jen, I want to ask you, then, what kind of tailwind does each leader come in with their economies, their political goodwill? 00:05:32 Speaker 4: At home? 00:05:33 Speaker 3: Trump obviously likes to talk about negotiations like their card games, right, So who's got the better hand here at this table? 00:05:41 Speaker 4: I think the fact that both presidents are so eager to make nice speaks to the fact that they each have bigger fish to fry back at home. President Trump has the war in the Middle East with the Iran President. She has an economy that is struggling. It is an economy that's over dependent on exports at the moment. It's an economy that's

faced deflation for the last two three years. There are lots of pressing issues that he would like to be able to focus on. Not being limited in his options by what Washington is doing in terms of sanctions and policies and diplomacy and elsewhere. 00:06:21 Speaker 3: And Jeff, the last time that these leaders met, the priority was trade in tariffs. Now Trump, of course has a bigger priorities. We've talked about Iran. How important and urgent is it for Trump to resolve the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 00:06:38 Speaker 5: Well, he certainly did not want the Iran war to be the dominant focus of this summit. He was downplaying it a little bit in the days before he arrived in Beijing when speaking to reporters. But I think your question is spot on. It's hugely important to him. Then straight up, Poormuz closure has had an impact not only on China in the US and that relationship, but on the global economy and honestly on President Trump's focus with the midterm elections coming in the United States, high gasoline prices in the US as a result of this war have certainly dimmed the political hopes of Republicans who want to hold on to control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Certainly, the Iran war and getting that settled will be key to him. In terms of his domestic politics going forward. In the readout that the White House released at the end of the meeting on Thursday, they said that President she also agreed that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon and did not think that the straight of war Mouse should be subject to Iran's control. So that is a win in terms of being able to show that the US and China are on. 00:07:48 Speaker 1: The same page. 00:07:50 Speaker 3: And John, what about China is obviously the largest buyer of Iranian oil, taking in roughly ninety percent of Iran's exports there, the country isn't dependent on it. Beijing has officially opposed the war, but it's largely stayed on the sidelines. 00:08:06 Speaker 4: I think the main issue for Beijing when it comes to the war in the Middle East is what the secondary impact is on economies around the world. Because China wants to sell its goods and products through those markets. It's depending on exports to fuel economic growth back at home to create jobs. And if higher oil prices are going to limit how many Chinese goods Americans or Europeans or people in Southeast Asia can buy from China, that is going to have a real impact. That's going to cause pain the longer the Strait of Hormuz's closed, the more of an impact. The more pronounced that impact becomes for China, the more motivated she will be to try and do something. But at the same time, I think there is a reluctance because there's been some talk of maybe China could be a mediator in this war. But I think on the Chinese side, there's this worry that what if a deal can't be reached, is China going to end up looking like it's the bad guy? Is going to get blamed for the deal not coming through. So there are lots of considerations. I think Beijing is trying to balance. 00:09:16 Speaker 3: One issue that's required a lot of balancing is Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. Shortly after Trump and She concluded their closed door talks, Beijing released a statement about what was discussed. Let me read it here. President She stressed that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China US relations. If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great Jeopardy, John, how significant was his statement? 00:09:55 Speaker 4: So it was significant that President She brought up Taiwan, and with President Trump it was not new. And by that I mean that every time an American president and a Chinese president have met, China has brought up the issue of Taiwan. It is by far the most important thing on the Chinese side of the relationship. President She made that clear to President Trump, and he would have said the same to President Biden, to President Obama. But what stood out this time was the very clear linkage to potential conflict. And that is a sort of language that we don't hear often. We have heard other Chinese officials talk about don't play with fire. We have not heard that from President She. So I think it does suggest that he is trying to convey this message with the higher volume to it. 00:10:47 Speaker 3: We have seen the past that US presidents have walked this tight rope on Taiwan, right what's known as strategic ambiguity when it comes to Taiwan. Jeff, I wonder if you can tell us a little bit about how previous administrations have handled this relationship and is there any sign of a departure from Trump on the US's approach to Taiwan. 00:11:09 Speaker 5: Certainly, previous US administrations have wanted to maintain the status quo, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio essentially said that before this trip as well, that it was neither in the US's interests nor in China's interest for there to be any instability with regard to Taiwan or any changes. But I can tell you that before this trip, I spoke to some former US government officials who expressed concern that President Trump would be open to maybe shifting the US position on Taiwan, and that perhaps in the middle of negotiation with President Shei when he was seeking a business deal or support on Iran, that the impulsive nature of President Trump's presidency and just his personality and his leadership style would lead to perhaps a major concession on Taiwan. It doesn't appear as though that happened, So I think that will be interesting to watch in the coming days if we get any additional details not only about what the Chinese said about Taiwan, which they were very quick to read out, but about what President Trump said in response. 00:12:16 Speaker 3: The US has approved some big weapons deals with Taiwan. US

presidents have, you know, really not discussed Taiwan arms deals with China. She has previously registered his displeasure with the US arm sales and has put Taiwan out there now and again as a very central issue. So the US doesn't want to talk about it China does. Did you feel that either side blinked to there? 00:12:42 Speaker 1: It's just hard to tell. 00:12:44 Speaker 5: Certainly, they haven't announced any major shift in US policy towards Taiwan. If their roar one, you know, even their slight shift would be a pretty big deal. But the impression so far from the US side is that it did not. 00:12:58 Speaker 4: I think it's really interesting if you look at at what each side mentioned and what each side did not mention. Right, So, the Chinese mentioned Taiwan, the American side has been relatively reluctant to talk about Taiwan. The American side mentioned Iran, the Chinese side has been relatively reluctant to talk about Iran. I think it speaks to how each side has its own agenda in terms of what it's trying to get out of the summit. But also I think it shows how both sides in some ways are kind of talking past each other. 00:13:28 Speaker 3: Still, I'm back with Bloomberg's Jeff Mason and John Liu, who've been covering the Trump She summit from Beijing now, Jeff. When these two leaders last met, the big discussion was Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, which the US Supreme Court has since ruled unconstitutional. How did tariff's factor into this round of negotiations. 00:13:59 Speaker 5: There was a sense that the two leaders might extend their trade truce with regard to tariffs on the US side and with regard to rare earths on the Chinese side. We haven't seen any specific decisions released about that or discussed about that, but you're absolutely right to note that President Trump came in in one one level with an arm tied behind his back on tariffs because of that Supreme Court decision, and that has taken away what he has largely used as a cudgel with the Chinese and with multiple other allies and competitors around the world. That said, even with that sort of legal hamstring on him, the President still is using tariff, still talks about tariffs, has promised to find other ways to use them. 00:14:47 Speaker 1: Legally despite these new restrictions. 00:14:50 Speaker 5: And so though some analysts were saying that President She came into the summit with a stronger hand. That's certainly not how President Trump and his people viewed his position. 00:15:00 Speaker 3: And going into this meeting, we're also hearing about the China US constructive strategic stability, John, what exactly is that? 00:15:08 Speaker 5: So? 00:15:08 Speaker 4: I think in many ways, I think it's about the relationship between Presidents Trump and She. So the way I would think about it is one, if you and I are friends and we have some dispute, I nick your car by accident, because we're friends, we're going to find a way to solve that conflict in a relatively amicable way. But if you and I hate each other and I accidentally tap your car, it's going to be a huge blow up. And So I think what that's speaking to is what is the fundamental underlying relationship like, because that will determine how well these two countries can deal with conflict and problems as they arise, and they will definitely arise. 00:15:53 Speaker 3: Jeff Trump came with an impressive, high profile delegation Tesla's Elon Musk, apples, Tim Cook and videos. Jensen Huang, how did that factor into the various deals and the deal making there at the summit? 00:16:07 Speaker 1: I think it factored hugely into it. And President. 00:16:09 Speaker 5: She had a separate meeting with some of those CEOs that Trump was not at. The CEOs were present in some of the pomp and circumstance parts of the summit, the welcoming ceremony and the banquet, and I think President Trump really liked that as a show of force of the business community coming together to support him and to support his goals with China. 00:16:32 Speaker 1: But it also goes deeper than that. 00:16:34 Speaker 5: I think the President really wants to come away with economic deals, and the takeaway from that is that there are positive benefits for the US economy and for US businesses from having an open relationship and trade between China and the US, but as much as possible on US terms, and that was part of his message while he was here. 00:16:56 Speaker 3: And President Trump was able to walk away with some trade deals in hand. He said China will buy two hundred Boeing planes, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer also said he's expecting an agreement for American agricultural goods worth tens of billions of dollars? Jeff, Are these big enough wins for Trump to come home with? Especially ahead of the midterms. 00:17:18 Speaker 5: The president faces some major headwinds going into the midterms. There's no doubt about that, and certainly the fuel price. Gasoline price is the biggest one. But he is a marketer, he is a salesman in chief, and so he will absolutely use these deals as a way to say, look what I did when I went to Beijing. This is going to help farmers, This is going to help manufacturing, this is going to help workers. You should continue to bless and support Republicans so that my agenda can go forward after them the term elections. 00:17:49 Speaker 1: Whether or not it's enough, it's not a question. 00:17:52 Speaker 5: That I'm able to answer, but I can certainly say he will use it for his case and for the case of his entire party. 00:18:01 Speaker 3: John, let's step back for a moment. The summit really seems to be a reset for the US and China after such a tense year of tariffs and wrangling over trade. What can we expect going forward? 00:18:13 Speaker 4: I think the strip is very important. I think it's even more interesting if you see it as the first of four potential meetings between Presidents Trump and She this year. President of Trump is in Beijing obviously this week, but then he's invited President She to visit in September. And then potentially President She would be back in the United States in December for the G twenty in Miami, and right before that, President Trump would be making another visit to China, to the city of Shenjen for APEC in November, and so it's really setting up for a lot of discussion and diplomacy and deal making this year between the United States and China. 00:18:52 Speaker 5: I had some US officials say that that lowered the bar in some ways for this meeting, that they didn't have to come away with as many major announcements or in Washington speak, deliverables, because they would have multiple other meetings this year already. 00:19:11 Speaker 1: Now. 00:19:11 Speaker 3: She opened the meeting by saying the world is at a new crossroads and raise the question of whether the US and China can escape the Thlucidides trap, which is the idea that when a rising new power like China threatens to displace and establish ruling power like the US, it's almost inevitable to result in conflict. John, what's the message that she is trying to deliver here? 00:19:34 Speaker 4: I think what he's trying to say to President Trump is there is a difference between fate and choice and President Trump and President She can choose to try to get along, They can choose to try and steer the relationship in a positive direction. But there are so many fundamental differences between the United States and China, be it political systems, economics, social norms, that fate might just dictate that these two countries inevitably must have some sort of conflict. And so I think President she by bringing that up, is trying to emphasize that they have to proactively be trying to manage the relationship in a positive way or it will fall into conflict. 00:20:29 Speaker 2: This is the Big take from Bloomberg News. I'm Tim stanebeck in for David Gura and Sarah Holder. The show is hosted by David Gura, Sarah Holder, and Jan Hat. The show is made by Aaron Edwards, David Fox, Jeff Grocott, Patty Hirsch, Rachel Lewis Kriskey, Katie mcmurran, Naomi Eaton, Julia Press, Tracy Samuelson, Naomi Shaven, Alex Sagira, Julia Weaver, Yang Yong, and Taka Yasuzawa. There's much more on Bloomberg dot Com. Get unlimited access to all of our coverage at a special rate for listeners at Bloomberg dot COMLA podcast offer thanks for listening. We'll be back on Monday.