TRASCRIZIONE 🔗
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In today's episode, we look at COP 31 in Turkey,
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where countries are once again confronting the growing gap between
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global climate promises and actual action. We also take a
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look at Uttar Pradesh, where a Diwali night argument over
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firecrackers allegedly escalated into a shooting that left a Rashtrapati
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Bhavan security staffer seriously injured. But we begin today by
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talking about why are dairy fat prices rising And could
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consumers face further increases? Hi, I'm Ichha Sharma and you're
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listening to 3 Things, the Indian Express news show. India
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is the world's largest producer of milk, accounting for nearly
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a quarter of global production. And over the years, the
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dairy industry here has expanded considerably. supported by millions of
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farmers and an extensive network of corporatives. But despite that scale,
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the country is now facing an unusual problem, a shortage
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of milk fat. And the impact is beginning to show
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up in the prices of some of the most commonly
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consumed dairy products, particularly ghee and butter. In fact, just
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earlier this month, Amul increased the price of its cow
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ghee by Rs 40 per litre. while the Karnataka Milk
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Federation raised the price of its Nandini Ghee by as
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much as Rs. 135 per litre. Now, these increases come
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at a time when demand for high-fat dairy products is growing,
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even as the country's milk production is expanding at a
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slower pace. But what's interesting is that India is not
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necessarily facing a shortage of milk itself. The problem lies
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in what that milk contains.
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See, generally what has happened is more and more of
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your milk production in India is now coming from cows
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rather than buffaloes.
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That's the Indian Express's National Rural Affairs and Agriculture editor,
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Harish Damodaran.
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Buffaloes generally have about, you know, it can be 6.5, 7%,
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it can even be about 8% fat. Whereas cow milk,
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generally the fat content is less, you know, so... As
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a higher proportion of India's milk production is coming from cows,
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so therefore there is that much less of fat which
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is being produced.
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So essentially, we need to look at the two main
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components of milk solids. The first is milk fat, which
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is essentially for making products such as ghee, butter, cream
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and many traditional sweets. The second is what the dairy
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industry calls solids not fat, or SNF, which includes proteins,
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lactose and minerals, and is used in products such as
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skimmed milk powder. And while demand for fat-rich dairy products
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has been rising... Demand for the non-fat component has not
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increased at the same pace. This difference is particularly visible
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in the prices dairy companies receive.
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And especially, you know, what happened during the Tirupati laddu controversy, right?
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I mean, it was found that a lot of the
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laddu was being made using adulterated ghee. But generally, I
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think now the authorities, you know, FSSAI, you know, the
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Maharashtra food inspectors, you know, everybody, I mean, I think
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the awareness has increased, you know. So because of that,
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what is happening is that the adulteration also is coming down.
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So that is further reducing the total quantity of so-called ghee,
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you know. So the ghee and khoa, etc., which you're
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getting are probably less adulterated than they were maybe two
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years back or three years back. So I would say
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both these. And generally, I think our consumption of fats
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is growing, you know. So your fat consumption is growing.
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So India has this problem, you know. We are producing
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probably a surplus of SNF and probably the demand for
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fat is not catching up. And that's why you see
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the prices of ghee now going up, you know. You
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won't get good ghee, you know, that is pure ghee
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for less than 800 rupees per litre. If someone is
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giving it to you for 700 rupees, 650 rupees, you
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can be sure
Load full transcript
that it has been adulterated.
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Additionally, Harish highlights that in September 2025, the government reduced
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GST on several dairy items. Tax on ghee, butter and
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cheese was brought down from 12% to 5%, while ice
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cream moved from 18% to 5%. Packaged paneer was made tax-free.
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So these reductions naturally made dairy products more affordable and,
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according to industry experts, helped stimulate consumption. And there is
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also the question of exports. Over the last two financial years,
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India exported substantial quantities of ghee, butter and anhydrous milk fat,
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particularly when international prices were high.
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So India was exporting a lot of ghee. So there
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was a time when I think the year before last,
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your global prices of ghee, of fat shot up. So
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because of that, a lot of fat got exported, you know,
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and probably I think the government will have to be
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very careful about exports. You know, you can allow exports
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in consumer packs, you know, like if it is branded consumer,
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you know, if it is going as a Amul ghee
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or something, it's fine. But I think we should be
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very careful about exporting fat in bulk, you know, especially
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if it is amidress, milk fat, etc. Because the fact is,
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we have a structural problem today, you know, which is
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that the fat consumption is growing, whereas probably the SMP,
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that is the SNF portion is not growing that much,
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you know. So to that extent, India has to be
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a little balanced.
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So what explains this growing imbalance? One important factor, Harish says,
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is a gradual change in the composition of India's dairy production. Traditionally,
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buffaloes accounted for a larger share of the country's milk supply. Now,
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buffalo milk generally contains between 6.5 and 8% fat, significantly
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more than cow milk. But over the years, farmers have
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increasingly preferred cross-bred cows, which tend to produce more milk
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and begin lactating earlier than buffaloes. As a result, the
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share of buffalo milk in India's total production has declined
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from roughly 57% at the beginning of the century to
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around 45% today. That means India may be producing more
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milk overall, but the proportion of fat available from that
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milk is changing. And then there is the larger question
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of how quickly India's milk production can expand. According to
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estimates from the US Department of Agriculture, India's milk production
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growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2026 and
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2% in 2027, partly because of tightening feed and fodder
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supplies and concerns about animal productivity. And climate conditions could
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further complicate this.
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So I don't expect El Nino's impact to be on
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milk production immediately because the past experience suggests that, you know,
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whenever there is a drought here, what happens is actually
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milk procurement by dairies goes up because milk is a
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source of daily liquidity. So what happens is when there
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is drought, farmers stop growing regular crops, you know, say wheat,
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say rice, say sugarcane. Because farmers prefer not to grow
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these crops. And instead, what they do is they prefer,
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you know, whatever little water is there, they try and,
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you know, reserve it for the animals, you know, including
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growing fodder, etc. So what happens is in that very
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first year, your milk production will not fall. But what
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happens is that the farmers will tend to feed the
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animals in milk more, you know. So suppose there is
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a cow which is already giving milk, they will give
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more fodder to that cow, you know. And suppose earlier
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they were sending, say, a buffalo for slaughter, you know,
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they'll keep that buffalo for one more season. But what
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happens is that the pregnant cows, the calves, they all
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don't get enough fodder because all the fodder is being
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used for the animals which are already yielding milk. So
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what happens? So you'll see the impact of drought, etc.,
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fodder shortage, etc., Coming not now, but the effects will
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be next year. Because the calves that have been underfed,
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they won't grow to be cows which can... Their entire
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pregnancy and lactation cycle gets disrupted.
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And next, we move our attention to Turkey, where world leaders,
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diplomats and climate negotiators have gathered for COP31. the annual
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United Nations Climate Summit, at a time when one of
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the world's most important climate goals appears to be slipping
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out of reach. Back in 2015, nearly every country in
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the world came together to adopt the Paris Agreement, committing
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to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above
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pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees.
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The idea was to prevent the worst consequences of climate
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change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and gradually moving away
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from fossil fuels. But more than a decade later, the
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world is nowhere close to meeting that ambition.
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Because, you know, we are expecting a little too much
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from the cops, actually.
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That's The Indian Express's Amitabh Sinha, who reports on climate
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action for the paper.
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The COPs have delivered what they had to deliver. They
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have set the climate targets, the temperature targets that we
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are all familiar with, 1.5 degrees Celsius. and 2 degrees
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Celsius targets. And they have also laid down the broad
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rules for international climate action. What now remains to be
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done is that individual countries have to take climate actions.
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And together, these climate actions should be able to do
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enough to reverse or fight the problem of climate change. Now,
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that second part is not happening. And it's not COP's
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fault because, you know, there is no mechanism within the
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COPs to force the countries to do more. Now, that
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is one perspective. The other perspective, look at it from
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the country's perspective. Now, there is a valid argument to
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suggest that, look, the targets that were set in the
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Paris Agreement, the 1.5 and 2 degrees target that we
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talk about, these targets were too difficult to start with.
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They were too ambitious. In fact, you know, the Paris
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Agreement sort of relies very heavily on the moral force
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and the good conscience of the countries to, you know,
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do good for the world as a whole, not look
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at their own interests, not forego, prioritize global interest over
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their own economic interests, their own developmental needs. That is
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not something that happens. Now, that is an inherent weakness
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of the Paris Agreement. And the results of that, it's
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unfolding right now.
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And this is the backdrop against which COP 31 began
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in the Turkish city of Antalya on Monday, and is
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expected to discuss ways to accelerate climate action and build
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on commitments made during previous summits. But there is little
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expectation of any major breakthrough.
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The COP process still has some meaning, a lot of meaning.
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In fact, you know, climate change has dropped in the
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global priority list for global agenda. It has dropped down.
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You don't see climate discussed as vociferously as it was.
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It used to be just two to three years ago
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at different global stages. You know, earlier it used to
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be the main agenda, G20, G7, all regional forums in
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trade talks and everything. Now, it's not happening. I mean,
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climate is not the biggest agenda on these different forums,
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but it is the main agenda on this climate meetings.
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The climate meetings have been constructed specifically to discuss climate change.
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And the problem of climate change hasn't gone away. There
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are other problems that have come up. There are wars
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that have come up. There is an energy security crisis
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that is staring us in the face and all sorts
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of things, more emergent things are requiring our attention. But
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the climate
change hasn't disappeared. You have to deal with it.
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You have to, you know, find ways to come up
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with actions, collaborate, cooperate with each other and deal with
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the climate change. And that's what we will see happening
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at these COPs. So, they are not irrelevant, but to
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expect them to come up with something that will miraculously
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prevent the 1.5 degree centigrade breach or 2 degrees breach,
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that is something that is, we are confusing what its
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role has to be.
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Now, of course, over the years, COP meetings have produced
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several important agreements, most notably the Paris Agreement itself. But
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they have struggled to ensure that countries actually deliver on
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their commitments.
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And, you know, a lot has been done. It would
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be a mistake to say nothing has happened. There are
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thousands of actions that are being taken across the world,
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both by states like governments and also by non-state actors
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like corporations, civil society organizations, even individuals. All sorts of
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actions are being taken. a lot of these actions also
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have a variety of co-benefits in terms of, say, poverty reduction,
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in terms of better livelihoods, in terms of food security,
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in terms of energy security. Lots of co-benefits also come
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out of these actions. Now, again, we come back to
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the fact that even though lots of these climate actions
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are being taken, they are not adequate. They are not
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adequate to meet the 1.5 and 2 degrees targets. So
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then we come back to these targets, whether they were,
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you know, too ambitious to start with. And it's actually
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very clear, you know, even if we bring down the
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entire emissions, entire global emissions to zero right now, things
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are not going to change for the next three, four decades.
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Amitabh, you have covered quite a few of these conferences.
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So tell us, after 30 years of co-ops, are we
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reaching a fatigue point in the process? Or does the
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fact that countries still show up signal hope?
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So not exactly a fatigue point. And I think countries
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not just show up, most of them show up quite
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enthusiastically and in a lot of hope. But more than fatigue,
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there is certainly an element of frustration. And that frustration
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emanates from the fact that the pace of climate action
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so far in the last 30 years that, you know,
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the world has been trying to fight climate change, the
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pace of climate action has not been commensurate to the
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scale of the problem. Now, I'm sure a lot of
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our listeners would be aware that last year, 2024, the 1.5
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degree temperature target was breached. So one year, the 1.5
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degree target has already been breached. And going by the
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current trend, it's likely to become a normal affair in
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maybe 5 or 10 years that consistently the annual temperatures
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would be 1.5 degrees higher than the pre-industrial times. While
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at the same time, the global emissions, emissions of greenhouse gases,
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which are the main reason for global warming, those emissions
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are still rising. So the frustration actually comes from this,
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that the pace of climate action, what needed to happen, basically,
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that has not happened till now. And therefore, we are
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likely to miss the 2030 targets as well. And, you know,
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the 1.5 degree target, as I said, is almost out
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of reach already. And the next, you know, the fear
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is that even the 2 degree target is likely to
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go out of the window very soon. So the frustration
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emanates from that. But I think most countries, if you
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ask them, are still hopeful that something can be done. Right.
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And Amitabh, besides this, and we've actually spoken about this
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earlier as well, that developing countries are clearly frustrated with
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the lack of adequate climate finance and technology transfers as well.
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So would you say the trust deficit between the global
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North and South has now become the biggest
obstacle?
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Yes.
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I mean, finance, technology certainly are issues that frustrate the
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developing countries. They are extremely disappointed with the fact that
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the developed countries have not even taken adequate measures to
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reduce their emissions, right? I mean, as our readers would
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also be aware that the United States has pulled out
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of the Paris Agreement. It happened immediately after Donald Trump
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became president. Now, the important thing here is the United
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States is still the largest historical emitter By historical emitter,
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I mean, you know, since the start of the industrial
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age till now, cumulatively, the United States has produced more
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greenhouse gases than any other country. And therefore, under, you know,
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the polluters pay principle sort of a thing that the
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climate change architecture applies, the United States also has the
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biggest responsibility to do the cleanup action, meaning it has
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the biggest responsibility to, you know, one, mitigate its emissions,
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I mean, reduce its emissions. and to also provide finance
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and technology. So the United States is a key player here,
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and it has just abdicated its responsibility by having moved
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out of the Paris Agreement. So the way the international
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climate architecture is designed, It puts a higher degree of
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responsibility on the developed countries to reduce their emissions, to
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provide money and to provide technology to the developing countries
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to help them fight climate change. And that has not
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been fulfilled. The developing countries have been angry, have been
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very disappointed and extremely frustrated.
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And in the end... We talk about a violent Diwali
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night dispute in Uttar Pradesh's Bhagpat, where a 26-year-old man,
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posted with Rashtrapati Bhavan security, was shot in the head
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after an argument over bursting firecrackers. Saurabh Tomar had returned
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to his village, Gopalpur Khadan, to celebrate Diwali with his
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family when the confrontation took place.
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As reported by.
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The Indian Express's Manish Sahu, Saurabh and members of his
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family were bursting firecrackers on the road when two neighbours,
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brothers Dhiraj and Monu, objected. The disagreement initially involved Saurabh's
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elder brother Vineeth, but police say it soon escalated. Dhiraj
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allegedly pulled out a countryman. pistol and opened fire. The
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bullet first struck a wall and then hit Saurabh in
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the head. The accused are also alleged to have assaulted
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Vineeth and threatened the family before fleeing. Saurabh was rushed
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to hospital, where doctors performed surgery and removed the bullet.
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Police said his condition was stable at the time of
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the report. An FIR has now been registered against Dheeraj
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and Monu on charges of attempt to murder and police
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say efforts are underway to arrest them. Now, there may
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also be a longer history behind the confrontation. Saurabh's father,
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Janak Raj, has alleged that the two families had an
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old enmity and and said his sons were attacked after
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the accused arrived while they were bursting crackers. Police have
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not independently established that claim. Saurabh, who has reportedly been
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posted at Rashtrapati Bhavan for the past seven years, got
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married around two years ago and has a nine-month-old child.
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You were listening to Three Things by The Indian Express.
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Today's show was edited and mixed by Suresh Pawar and
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produced by Shashank Bhargav and me, Itchha Sharma. If you
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like the show, do subscribe to us wherever you get
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think may like it, with a friend or in your family.
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Podcast or write to us at podcast at indianexpress.com.