Transkrip lengkap untuk 𝚌𝚘𝚗𝚜𝚎𝚗𝚜𝚞𝚜 𝚑𝚊𝚕𝚕𝚞𝚌𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗.

last week started on my birthday Monday the 16th. 00:06:30.240 --> 00:06:31.199 The street. 00:06:32.160 --> 00:06:32.879 The street. 00:06:33.120 --> 00:06:37.279 The goons insist on calling it a really fucking important week. 00:06:37.759 --> 00:06:41.439 You see, we had the Federal Open Markets Committee. 00:06:41.519 --> 00:06:43.920 We had the the the bosses. 00:06:45.519 --> 00:06:50.480 The high disciples of the financial system, the governors of the Federal Reserve. 00:06:50.639 --> 00:06:53.360 And they met last Wednesday. 00:06:53.759 --> 00:06:55.839 I was none the wiser. 00:06:56.319 --> 00:07:00.720 But they left rates unchanged at kind of let's call it 3.8%. 00:07:01.120 --> 00:07:02.560 That would be the mid-range. 00:07:02.800 --> 00:07:04.800 It was fully telegraphed. 00:07:05.279 --> 00:07:07.199 It was fully staged. 00:07:07.439 --> 00:07:10.160 Now what they did was like that's a great idea. 00:07:12.319 --> 00:07:14.480 It's all about growth and inflation. 00:07:14.720 --> 00:07:17.199 You want less inflation and more growth. 00:07:20.240 --> 00:07:23.120 There's a million definitions of inflation. 00:07:23.680 --> 00:07:32.399 The Fed, they love this thing called the P, the C, the E, the Peter, the Charlie, the Eddie. 00:07:32.959 --> 00:07:36.560 I've given up even price composite. 00:07:36.639 --> 00:07:37.199 I don't know. 00:07:37.600 --> 00:07:38.959 I'm sure you know better than me. 00:07:39.199 --> 00:07:41.040 Anyway, shock, horror. 00:07:41.680 --> 00:07:46.000 They so you know we want inflation down, we want growth up. 00:07:46.240 --> 00:07:53.040 Well, they gave us, they increased their forecast for inflation from 2.4 to 2.7. 00:07:53.439 --> 00:07:54.720 Shock, horror. 00:07:55.680 --> 00:08:11.920 And but to avail, if you will, the sense of shock and horror, they lifted their expectation for how fast the American economy, we call that GDP, gross domestic product, they now think it's going to grow a bit faster. 00:08:12.079 --> 00:08:16.399 They had originally thought 2.3, and now they're thinking 2.4. 00:08:16.800 --> 00:08:18.079 And that's it. 00:08:18.879 --> 00:08:19.519 That's it. 00:08:19.680 --> 00:08:21.199 That's the entire event. 00:08:21.519 --> 00:08:23.759 This really important event, that's it. 00:08:24.399 --> 00:08:26.639 Dressed up as insight. 00:08:28.079 --> 00:08:29.600 They call this signal. 00:08:29.680 --> 00:08:31.120 I call them wankers. 00:08:32.879 --> 00:08:35.759 Translation is it's it's not complicated. 00:08:36.240 --> 00:08:42.720 In real life, inflation is, you know what, it's not under control. 00:08:43.200 --> 00:08:45.120 And growth, you know what? 00:08:45.440 --> 00:08:48.080 It's not collapsing. 00:08:48.480 --> 00:08:53.200 Everything, everything is not under control. 00:08:55.279 --> 00:09:01.120 And the growth, the growth is just upsy downsy, come see, come sa, as my French friends say. 00:09:02.159 --> 00:09:03.679 The data is drifting. 00:09:03.919 --> 00:09:05.840 It's it's it's like my life. 00:09:05.919 --> 00:09:07.519 I'm sure it's a bit like your life. 00:09:07.600 --> 00:09:16.000 It's messy at times, it's chaotic, it's a weather system, it's the ocean currents shaped by forces. 00:09:16.639 --> 00:09:23.039 Nobody in the room can properly model or consistently model. 00:09:23.279 --> 00:09:39.279 And yet they stand there in their expansive suits with their forecast like medieval priests reading smoke circles, insisting they can see the future when they can't. 00:09:40.320 --> 00:09:42.320 When nobody fucking can. 00:09:42.720 --> 00:09:46.000 Maybe me, maybe just I get a glimpse of it sometimes. 00:09:46.240 --> 00:09:50.080 And that's the that's the only honest, honest statement in macro. 00:09:50.159 --> 00:09:52.000 I mean, not he's seeing the future. 00:09:52.399 --> 00:09:55.840 The only honest statement is nobody fucking can see the future. 00:09:56.000 --> 00:09:59.120 You've got to design a time machine, perhaps. 00:09:59.279 --> 00:10:00.799 Maybe the Chinese will. 00:10:02.000 --> 00:10:07.919 Now, as I hear my French neighbours garble something in French, are they saying 14? 00:10:08.480 --> 00:10:13.120 14 is the French number for 14.14. 00:10:13.519 --> 00:10:14.799 14 basis points. 00:10:15.039 --> 00:10:16.000 Remember that. 00:10:16.240 --> 00:10:17.759 What am I talking about? 00:10:18.639 --> 00:10:28.799 Well, you see, after the event of last week, the Federal Reserve meeting and how they changed you, like it's like the the Cardinals voting for a new Pope. 00:10:28.879 --> 00:10:41.679 The white smoke showed that GDP estimates had marginally been increased, and inflation estimates had taken a bit of a larger increase to the upside. 00:10:42.879 --> 00:10:48.480 The net of all that was the US 10-year government bond yield. 00:10:50.080 --> 00:10:51.039 It drifted. 00:10:51.200 --> 00:10:53.120 That's my word, drifted, it's not their word. 00:10:53.279 --> 00:10:58.720 It moved from roughly 4.25% to 4.39. 00:10:59.039 --> 00:11:02.240 Oh my god, I'm quoting numbers to two decimal points. 00:11:02.720 --> 00:11:06.159 This is what happens when you stare at your screen. 00:11:06.960 --> 00:11:12.960 Anyway, I had to use the two decimal points because that movement is 14. 00:11:13.279 --> 00:11:15.759 That number again, 14 basis points. 00:11:15.919 --> 00:11:18.480 14, 14, 14. 00:11:19.120 --> 00:11:20.159 Do you know what? 00:11:20.720 --> 00:11:23.279 Do you know what basis point is? 00:11:23.519 --> 00:11:26.559 Anyone, anyone, anyone? 00:11:27.279 --> 00:11:31.840 It's one hundredth of one percent. 00:11:32.240 --> 00:11:37.360 So we're talking about fourteen one hundredths of one percent. 00:11:38.559 --> 00:11:42.159 I call that an eyelash. 00:11:42.399 --> 00:11:44.960 I call that a rounding error. 00:11:45.120 --> 00:11:53.519 Something you would ignore in any real enterprise though where actual capital was at risk, where grown-ups were in charge. 00:11:54.080 --> 00:12:06.159

But in this Disney matrix world, they inflate one eyelash into a revelation. 00:12:06.799 --> 00:12:15.039 Grown men, not in mouse ears, but in exp maybe they do have mouse ears in expensive suits. 00:12:15.440 --> 00:12:27.279 They lower their voice solemnly and they talk about repricing the red puff as if 14 fucking basis points carries philosophical weight. 00:12:28.879 --> 00:12:29.679 It doesn't. 00:12:29.840 --> 00:12:34.559 It's triviality dressed up as importance. 00:12:34.720 --> 00:12:35.360 I don't know. 00:12:35.600 --> 00:12:37.679 This is the trick, not the move. 00:12:37.919 --> 00:12:41.759 It's how you narrate the move. 00:12:42.159 --> 00:12:48.559 And the smaller, and this was a really a very small move, the more theatrical the explanation. 00:12:48.799 --> 00:12:54.639 Because the system quite simply cannot admit that nothing happened. 00:12:54.879 --> 00:13:07.360 If nothing happened, there's nothing to sell, there's nothing to trade, there's nothing to justify the salaries and the bonuses of the guys in the suits. 00:13:07.840 --> 00:13:10.240 And so they they take noise. 00:13:10.559 --> 00:13:17.360 It's like a can, they take noise and they elevate it into signal because they have to. 00:13:18.080 --> 00:13:19.840 Now I see it. 00:13:20.399 --> 00:13:25.919 I see what they're doing, I see the trickery, their sleight of hand. 00:13:26.480 --> 00:13:32.720 And believe me, once you see it, oh my god, you can't unsee it. 00:13:34.000 --> 00:13:35.600 And this is the scam. 00:13:39.039 --> 00:13:46.960 Thankfully, chaos, my good friend, chaos doesn't obey what am I talking about? 00:13:47.200 --> 00:13:56.480 So there was another inflation data point, the PPI, the producer price index. 00:13:56.720 --> 00:14:13.120 And so this is the rate of change in prices in intermediate goods, like in manufactured goods, like before they transition into final goods, before they're on your shelf in the supermarket. 00:14:14.879 --> 00:14:28.720 And the producer price index, well, the headline figure, prices, again, remember this is before they hit your supermarket, rose 2.8%. 00:14:29.440 --> 00:14:42.639 Now, if you strip out things that move a lot, kind of a bit a bit crazy, like food prices, maybe the core was 2.6, up 2.6%. 00:14:45.200 --> 00:14:50.080 And if we just zoom into goods, so goods not services, it was 3.1%. 00:14:52.480 --> 00:14:59.679 And again, remember, the lesson here is not necessarily the number, but it's the behavior of the system. 00:15:00.159 --> 00:15:04.879 The more chaotic it becomes, that's what you look out for. 00:15:05.120 --> 00:15:13.279 You see, you zoom in on the tide and this turbulence, its eddies, its unpredictability is apparent. 00:15:14.559 --> 00:15:18.480 You zoom out and it appears smooth. 00:15:19.120 --> 00:15:21.279 And macro is no different. 00:15:21.679 --> 00:15:23.360 You mirror, mirror on the wall. 00:15:23.519 --> 00:15:27.360 If you ask mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the prettiest? 00:15:28.080 --> 00:15:30.480 Who's the smartest of them all? 00:15:31.759 --> 00:15:42.639 If you ask it every damn second of the day, it's gonna say, yes, no, you or some other person, yes, no, yes, no, no, no, no, yes, yes, yes, no signal. 00:15:43.039 --> 00:15:47.440 If you ask it once a year, it's gonna say yes. 00:15:47.919 --> 00:15:50.960 Or it depends on the person might say no. 00:15:51.600 --> 00:15:53.360 But do you see what I mean? 00:15:53.679 --> 00:15:56.960 Zoom out and it appears smooth. 00:15:57.519 --> 00:15:59.360 Smooth like a signal. 00:16:01.919 --> 00:16:12.720 But of course my dear friends on Wall Street, they stare at the damn thing. 00:16:13.679 --> 00:16:17.279 They and they they stare at it tick by tick by tick. 00:16:17.440 --> 00:16:23.279 I mean I look at still haven't done that chart exercise, haven't published it. 00:16:24.000 --> 00:16:31.120 We looked at the 500 companies that comprise the standard and poor standard and poor as 500. 00:16:31.519 --> 00:16:39.759 And we looked at quarterly data, data stretching back in some instances to the early 1970s. 00:16:40.240 --> 00:16:45.519 I think we were looking at we're looking at a lot of data. 00:16:46.240 --> 00:16:50.559 These people are tick, tick, tick, like every nanosecond. 00:16:51.120 --> 00:16:52.639 Decimal by decimal. 00:16:52.879 --> 00:16:55.919 Two standard deviation by two standard deviation. 00:16:56.159 --> 00:17:05.039 And then the They're surprised that their system refuses to obey linear models. 00:17:08.160 --> 00:17:09.920 Of course it refuses. 00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:13.680 Reality doesn't collide. 00:17:14.720 --> 00:17:18.000 It doesn't converge. 00:17:22.240 --> 00:17:30.240 Does it converge neatly to targets defined in Wall Street's lush and plush? 00:17:31.359 --> 00:17:34.240 A lot of onomatopea, I believe. 00:17:35.440 --> 00:17:40.799 Does it converge to targets conceived of in conference rooms? 00:17:41.519 --> 00:17:43.039 In invest banks. 00:17:44.160 --> 00:17:48.559 Nah, instead it goes, fuck you, fuck you, Jimmy. 00:17:49.519 --> 00:17:50.079 Do you hear the wind? 00:17:50.160 --> 00:17:51.359 I don't know if you hear that. 00:17:51.839 --> 00:17:57.279 Data it it lurches, it bites, it scratches, it damn ignores them all. 00:17:57.440 --> 00:17:58.640 I love the data. 00:17:58.799 --> 00:18:05.279 And because they can't accept that that they are actually in the scheme of things, they don't matter. 00:18:05.519 --> 00:18:07.279 They are insignificant. 00:18:08.559 --> 00:18:17.440 But because they can't they can't call that they resort to metaphor. 00:18:17.759 --> 00:18:19.920 I swear to god, I think it was CMBC. 00:18:20.079 --> 00:18:23.359 And the saying was, it's another what was it? 00:18:23.519 --> 00:18:28.319 It's it's another brick in the sticky inflation wall. 00:18:33.200 --> 00:18:34.319 Makes me angry. 00:18:36.079 --> 00:18:37.200 What the hell? 00:18:37.519 --> 00:18:40.640 Can can you tell me please, what the

hell is a tricky brick? 00:18:40.799 --> 00:18:42.880 A tricky, not a sticky brick. 00:18:43.839 --> 00:18:44.960 Is it wet? 00:18:45.359 --> 00:18:46.559 Is it alive? 00:18:46.720 --> 00:18:49.200 Is it climbing something? 00:18:51.279 --> 00:18:54.880 And seriously, are they no? 00:18:56.160 --> 00:18:59.359 Are they fucking with pink flound? 00:19:01.839 --> 00:19:04.240 I mean this is what passes for analysis. 00:19:04.480 --> 00:19:12.160 A child's really bad metaphor standing in for some diligent macro understanding. 00:19:12.720 --> 00:19:19.839 Cause if you need bad fucking poetry to explain your data, you just don't understand your data. 00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:29.920 Now the next section which takes us to China is entitled Just Show Me, not the money, it's kind of the same thing. 00:19:30.160 --> 00:19:31.759 Show me the yield. 00:19:32.400 --> 00:19:33.920 Let me explain. 00:19:35.200 --> 00:19:37.039 China reported. 00:19:37.680 --> 00:19:39.599 China had a big day. 00:19:40.400 --> 00:19:42.799 This is Thursday going into Friday. 00:19:43.119 --> 00:19:45.200 Monday of this week. 00:19:46.319 --> 00:19:48.079 The week after my birthday. 00:19:49.359 --> 00:19:53.839 China reported industrial production year over year up 5.1%. 00:19:55.279 --> 00:19:59.839 Retail sales year over year up 4.2%. 00:20:01.119 --> 00:20:06.799 Fixed asset investment year over year up 4.1%. 00:20:08.319 --> 00:20:10.640 All labelled as beats. 00:20:11.519 --> 00:20:15.359 And instantly the narrative machine, it flips. 00:20:16.000 --> 00:20:17.519 China is back. 00:20:18.559 --> 00:20:21.440 China's stimulus is working. 00:20:21.680 --> 00:20:26.319 And commodities, they were bent, people were buying them, they were up on the day. 00:20:28.640 --> 00:20:32.319 Except I have. 00:20:40.799 --> 00:20:42.720 Childlike in the simplicity. 00:20:43.440 --> 00:20:48.160 And the rule is show me the yield. 00:20:48.240 --> 00:20:49.440 Show me the fucking money. 00:20:49.599 --> 00:20:51.359 Forgive my vulgarity. 00:20:52.240 --> 00:20:59.039 Like, mm, the straits of hormoose with oil at a hundred bucks a barrel. 00:20:59.359 --> 00:21:15.039 If they're if their 10-year government bond yield, if it's still sitting below 2%, nobody with any ounce of intelligence believes the story. 00:21:15.440 --> 00:21:20.160 Chinese system is still trapped in deflationary sludge. 00:21:22.559 --> 00:21:24.640 They're trudging through sludge. 00:21:24.799 --> 00:21:27.759 Wilfred on from the first world war. 00:21:28.480 --> 00:21:36.559 I'm talking about China is dealing with deflationary sludge, but they're dressing it up as growth. 00:21:36.799 --> 00:21:37.759 How do I know that? 00:21:37.839 --> 00:21:39.359 I'm actually looking at a chart. 00:21:39.519 --> 00:21:40.880 Maybe will I share it with you? 00:21:41.039 --> 00:21:41.680 Will I won? 00:21:41.839 --> 00:21:43.759 Will I will I will I won? 00:21:46.000 --> 00:21:59.759 You know, about a year ago, the the authorities, the

commies over there, they started lobbying like juicy bombs at the at the tape and the screens of Bloomberg saying, hey, over here. 00:22:00.480 --> 00:22:02.400 Over here, like we get it, we're sorry. 00:22:02.559 --> 00:22:05.839 We want we want our asset prices to go up. 00:22:06.960 --> 00:22:09.839 And we're gonna do everything, we're gonna stimulate. 00:22:10.799 --> 00:22:30.319 And they had to do something because the 10-year Chinese bond yield, I think, got down to about 1.6% when it was vying with Japan. 00:22:30.799 --> 00:22:37.200 Japan, it's not a good indicator, as the lowest 10-year yields. 00:22:38.240 --> 00:22:48.400 So since then, they've stopped the price of their government bonds going up. 00:22:48.559 --> 00:22:55.759 Because they don't like the price is being bit up because risk takers globally and within China are terrified. 00:22:56.240 --> 00:23:04.559 Property prices, everything's overvalued, so much leverage, very little, very lots of jobs, very little profit in the system. 00:23:05.519 --> 00:23:13.359 A stock market which has done nothing in yeah, like this century. 00:23:18.079 --> 00:23:24.799 And the credibility of this then really is what happens next with the 10-year treasury yield. 00:23:25.279 --> 00:23:30.160 And what I can tell you is it's kind of your yod? 00:23:30.400 --> 00:23:31.680 Can I say is your word? 00:23:32.720 --> 00:23:34.720 Your yod, I think I want to say. 00:23:35.039 --> 00:23:51.759 Kind of 155 low, like 190, 1.9% high yield, 160 low yield, like 190 high yield, but less than 2%. 00:23:53.759 --> 00:24:03.200 At my point, you know, when the GDP, retail sales, fixed asset investment, about four or five percent. 00:24:03.440 --> 00:24:06.000 I'm like, I'll fall asleep. 00:24:06.160 --> 00:24:12.240 I'm like, you know what, guys, call me when it tr when the yield trades through two percent. 00:24:13.279 --> 00:24:14.799 Kinda easy, right? 00:24:15.200 --> 00:24:22.559 But until then, it's all Jack and Nori, you're telling me a story at state, is call me propaganda. 00:24:23.039 --> 00:24:28.559 I got I got nothing to do with propaganda. 00:24:34.240 --> 00:24:38.400 Am I going existential when I say decay doesn't scream? 00:24:41.039 --> 00:24:41.920 Maybe. 00:24:42.720 --> 00:24:55.200 What I'm getting at, what I'm digging at is that the rest of this week was kind of f and and the the week before was it was like filler, pretending to be substance. 00:24:55.279 --> 00:25:02.000 You know, it's like that orange tangerine you get in your stocking that you hang over the Christmas fire. 00:25:02.160 --> 00:25:06.559 It's like it's a sweet tangerine, but you know, you're waiting for the big deal. 00:25:06.799 --> 00:25:11.359 Tangerines and the data we got weren't really in the the big deal. 00:25:11.440 --> 00:25:17.119 We got Empire State, which is kind of industrial activity within the New York State. 00:25:17.519 --> 00:25:18.640 It was weak. 00:25:18.960 --> 00:25:31.599 We got ADP, which is it's it's a private sector indicator on labor market employment, and it's a little bit floppish, a little bit soft. 00:25:32.000 --> 00:25:36.000 Housing data was fragile. 00:25:36.960 --> 00:25:39.039 It's okay, but it was fragile. 00:25:39.200 --> 00:25:42.720 And the unemployment claims were steady. 00:25:43.119 --> 00:25:45.920 Nothing broke, nothing healed. 00:25:46.160 --> 00:25:50.240 The system just kind of lingered. 00:25:50.799 --> 00:25:52.400 And this this is the point. 00:25:52.559 --> 00:25:59.519 This is the danger point where most people lose their their footing because we all want resolution. 00:25:59.839 --> 00:26:04.720 We want a crash, a boom, we want a reason to turn the page. 00:26:04.960 --> 00:26:06.799 Something clean, a clean cue. 00:26:06.960 --> 00:26:08.640 I always give me a clean kill. 00:26:09.039 --> 00:26:14.720 You know, give me the SP of Nasdaq down 20-25%, and then we'll buy it and we'll make new eyes. 00:26:18.720 --> 00:26:23.599 And of course, what we get instead with life is a mess. 00:26:25.680 --> 00:26:29.759 Inflation kind of hanging around as you just thought it. 00:26:30.559 --> 00:26:34.559 Growth kind of like leaking energy. 00:26:35.440 --> 00:26:37.680 Certainly no regime shift. 00:26:37.920 --> 00:26:39.359 That'd be a kill. 00:26:40.240 --> 00:26:53.200 Just a slow daily grind that defies the narrative but sustains the illusion that the story still matters when it doesn't. 00:26:53.839 --> 00:26:54.799 Soft landing. 00:26:55.039 --> 00:26:56.319 It's not a forecast. 00:26:56.480 --> 00:26:59.920 It's product that's sold to you. 00:27:00.240 --> 00:27:04.400 It's something they keep selling to you because they have to. 00:27:05.920 --> 00:27:08.640 It's expensive running a Wall Street bank. 00:27:09.119 --> 00:27:12.000 Same with disinflation is on autopilot. 00:27:12.079 --> 00:27:16.640 That's not the Microsoft AI, that's just like disinflation's coming down predictably. 00:27:16.880 --> 00:27:18.640 That's a fantasy. 00:27:19.440 --> 00:27:24.799 Prices do not drift obediently back to 2% targets. 00:27:25.039 --> 00:27:26.799 They are mad. 00:27:29.839 --> 00:27:30.799 Or boom. 00:27:32.640 --> 00:27:41.759 Did I just make funny noises that were indicating the direction of travel for inflation? 00:27:42.079 --> 00:27:43.039 Maybe. 00:27:44.640 --> 00:27:53.759 The noises or the the these stories, the Wall Street titles to grown men, of course they were never real. 00:27:54.559 --> 00:27:56.240 They just do you know what? 00:27:56.400 --> 00:27:58.400 They sounded good in a research note. 00:27:58.640 --> 00:28:02.480 Everyone went, we can make money on that. 00:28:02.799 --> 00:28:08.160 With the first call, the best call, the last call, just don't call. 00:28:18.799 --> 00:28:19.759 I like chaos. 00:28:20.000 --> 00:28:21.599 My life is chaotic. 00:28:21.759 --> 00:28:22.720 I like that. 00:28:23.039 --> 00:28:27.839 And they convince themselves that it's that that world is predictable.

00:28:28.319 --> 00:28:34.640 Like weather forecasts, like occasionally they'll get they'll be accurate, and then they're like, we control the weather. 00:28:34.880 --> 00:28:38.160 They're not scientists, they're believers. 00:28:42.960 --> 00:28:45.440 Well, I mean, there was a lot of data. 00:28:45.759 --> 00:28:53.279 We got purchasing manager indices for manufacturing. 00:28:54.079 --> 00:28:56.160 I'm not gonna do I'm not doing a decimal point. 00:28:56.319 --> 00:28:59.200 52 services, 51. 00:28:59.519 --> 00:29:01.680 The composite was 51. 00:29:02.000 --> 00:29:04.480 Do you notice the commonality across those three? 00:29:04.640 --> 00:29:06.319 They were all above 50. 00:29:06.559 --> 00:29:10.960 So the surface, the narrative again, the story remains un intact. 00:29:11.200 --> 00:29:11.599 Why? 00:29:11.839 --> 00:29:19.119 Because when you go below 50, you're actually it's an indicating, it's an indicator of contraction. 00:29:19.279 --> 00:29:20.799 Nothing contracted. 00:29:21.119 --> 00:29:23.920 Cops, but nothing contracted. 00:29:24.720 --> 00:29:27.279 Service is slowing. 00:29:28.240 --> 00:29:30.079 Demand weakening. 00:29:30.160 --> 00:29:33.920 And these are kind of observations you can draw from that data. 00:29:34.240 --> 00:29:35.279 Employment. 00:29:35.759 --> 00:29:39.200 Employment actually fell for the first time in over a year. 00:29:39.759 --> 00:29:41.440 It was kind of like a red flag. 00:29:41.680 --> 00:29:42.720 Costs are rising. 00:29:42.799 --> 00:29:46.319 Did anyone say the straits are forms? 00:29:46.960 --> 00:29:48.079 Prices are rising. 00:29:48.160 --> 00:30:00.079 Did anyone say Iran's ballistic ballistic missile emissions are down 90%, maybe, but oil prices are rising. 00:30:00.559 --> 00:30:04.240 Confidence, I mean confidence has been fading over a very long time. 00:30:04.319 --> 00:30:05.519 It's called singularity. 00:30:11.839 --> 00:30:16.559 Of course, that really doesn't sound like economic strength. 00:30:16.880 --> 00:30:25.839 It sounds more like a system kind of losing momentum, but definitely refusing to kind of face plan and collapse. 00:30:26.960 --> 00:30:35.279 To that point, the Q1, fast tracking GDP, is looking at that it's going to come in 1 to 1.3. 00:30:35.680 --> 00:30:36.880 Same story. 00:30:37.359 --> 00:30:40.000 Not enough weakness to trigger a panic. 00:30:40.240 --> 00:30:44.079 Not enough strength to justify being wildly bullish. 00:30:44.400 --> 00:30:49.599 Just enough to keep everyone stuck in the middle. 00:30:49.759 --> 00:30:51.039 I'm stuck in the middle with you. 00:30:51.119 --> 00:30:55.279 I've got you know jokers to the left of me, I've got idiots to the right. 00:30:59.359 --> 00:31:02.559 And you know, the the farce completes itself. 00:31:02.640 --> 00:31:04.400 I think it was Tuesday. 00:31:04.720 --> 00:31:05.839 Durable goods. 00:31:06.480 --> 00:31:09.759 Durable goods didn't even bother to show up. 00:31:10.319 --> 00:31:11.440 Postponed. 00:31:12.799 --> 00:31:15.599 Even the data is embarrassed. 00:31:15.839 --> 00:31:21.920 It can't be bothered to attend its own performance travesty, if you will. 00:31:22.319 --> 00:31:23.920 It's like durable goods are there. 00:31:24.160 --> 00:31:26.480 I can't, I can't bear, I can't bear. 00:31:26.640 --> 00:31:29.839 Please don't measure me with two decimal points. 00:31:32.720 --> 00:31:37.519 Instead, again, we got fluff, we got import prices, they were up 1.3. 00:31:37.759 --> 00:31:40.960 We got export prices, they were up 1.5, 1.5. 00:31:41.759 --> 00:31:50.720 Actually, trade inflation, the pressure, quietly building, but 1.3, 1.5. 00:31:51.200 --> 00:31:54.720 It's way below headline, headline inflation. 00:31:57.359 --> 00:31:59.599 We did get the current account. 00:31:59.839 --> 00:32:07.039 Yeah, so that's principally it's trade flows and then capital flows, typically offsetting capital flows. 00:32:07.440 --> 00:32:15.039 And the deficit, America's run a deficit since it came off the gold standard in 1970. 00:32:15.839 --> 00:32:18.559 This deficit was small. 00:32:19.279 --> 00:32:25.279 It was as small as it was during COVID, the twilight years of COVID, but like when we stopped trading. 00:32:25.680 --> 00:32:28.880 Um the deficit, of course, would become very small. 00:32:36.079 --> 00:32:42.480 So mmm, and yeah, but Marcus, by this point, Marcus will like mean like barely moving. 00:32:43.279 --> 00:32:46.160 This shit doesn't resolve anything. 00:32:46.960 --> 00:32:50.240 Just adds more inputs into a machine. 00:32:51.279 --> 00:32:58.880 It's meant to be a weighing machine, but it exists really to produce motion, not truth. 00:33:01.440 --> 00:33:04.559 Data Economic data. 00:33:06.880 --> 00:33:08.000 Are you listening? 00:33:08.240 --> 00:33:09.359 Have you fallen asleep? 00:33:09.440 --> 00:33:10.000 It's okay. 00:33:10.640 --> 00:33:12.640 I'm falling asleep, I'm going to bed. 00:33:13.200 --> 00:33:17.519 Macro data in the hands of Wall Street. 00:33:18.799 --> 00:33:22.400 It exists to keep asset prices moving. 00:33:22.559 --> 00:33:25.119 Up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down. 00:33:25.680 --> 00:33:27.279 The suits get paid. 00:33:28.400 --> 00:33:31.519 Transforming this noise into storytelling. 00:33:31.920 --> 00:33:33.759 Storytelling into fees. 00:33:33.920 --> 00:33:35.599 It's like Hollywood. 00:33:36.640 --> 00:33:40.000 That's why we need kids with guns. 00:33:40.079 --> 00:33:41.119 Are you playing that? 00:33:41.359 --> 00:33:42.160 Oh my god. 00:33:42.480 --> 00:33:45.039 Pete Tanning, wonderful friend. 00:33:45.359 --> 00:33:47.839 Artist in residence in Winwood. 00:33:47.920 --> 00:33:49.119 I was in Miami. 00:33:49.519 --> 00:33:50.319 And Steve. 00:33:50.559 --> 00:33:51.440 Steve, not Steve. 00:33:51.519 --> 00:33:53.759 Uh Pete picked me up and some friends. 00:33:53.920 --> 00:33:55.279 Sunday night. 00:33:55.599 --> 00:34:00.400 Came out of a an uber, uber black SUV. 00:34:01.039 -->

00:34:02.640 And we jumped into his. 00:34:02.799 --> 00:34:09.760 It's like a a golf cart which has been transformed into a ladybug or a love bug. 00:34:09.840 --> 00:34:16.400 He's got his big translucent lit-up um wings. 00:34:17.920 --> 00:34:22.079 And Pete plays really good music and he drives really, really fast. 00:34:22.719 --> 00:34:24.239 And I smiled. 00:34:24.559 --> 00:34:26.239 I smiled a lot. 00:34:26.639 --> 00:34:28.559 Why am I telling you that? 00:34:30.159 --> 00:34:31.599 Kids with guns. 00:34:32.639 --> 00:34:33.599 The kids. 00:34:36.159 --> 00:34:38.480 Kids, I don't know, like in your 30s. 00:34:38.719 --> 00:34:53.039 And you own nothing, you're the disenfranchised, struggling to get a um to to get an edge or a ledge to own something. 00:34:53.840 --> 00:34:55.519 To build wealth. 00:34:56.079 --> 00:35:02.320 You've got no claim on the economic system that's supposedly all these data points are coming from. 00:35:03.840 --> 00:35:10.480 And yet, as you know, you're that consumer confidence sentiment, which is not high. 00:35:10.960 --> 00:35:19.920 And it's because AI is coming for your job, your career, your sense of meaning. 00:35:21.760 --> 00:35:25.519 So imagine, and I this is for my rage. 00:35:25.840 --> 00:35:36.000 Imagine that's kind of this inevitability almost, and yet you've got well-paid financial clowns debating decimal points. 00:35:36.559 --> 00:35:40.559 Not even hundreds of one percentage points. 00:35:40.880 --> 00:35:45.360 It's this as though this is where the future is decided. 00:35:46.719 --> 00:35:47.760 What can I say to you? 00:35:48.000 --> 00:35:50.800 That is fucking criminal. 00:35:54.159 --> 00:36:02.960 And when when this market, when any market breaks, because systems systems built on this kind of abstraction, they they break. 00:36:03.119 --> 00:36:06.480 Higher, lower, I really don't think it matters. 00:36:06.800 --> 00:36:15.599 But the same people who construct this fantasy, who just defend this nonsense, they'll be bailed out. 00:36:16.159 --> 00:36:17.760 But not the kids. 00:36:18.239 --> 00:36:21.679 The kids will get the bill in the future. 00:36:22.079 --> 00:36:23.440 They always do. 00:36:24.719 --> 00:36:27.519 Disenfranchised kids need guns. 00:36:27.760 --> 00:36:28.719 We were playing as well. 00:36:28.880 --> 00:36:30.159 I was talking about Pete Pete. 00:36:31.280 --> 00:36:32.320 Pete Tunny. 00:36:32.800 --> 00:36:37.760 One of my favorite songs is Is it Paper Planes Flying Paper Planes? 00:36:38.159 --> 00:36:38.880 MIE. 00:36:41.039 --> 00:36:45.360 It has this great sequence where it has explosive guns. 00:36:45.599 --> 00:36:47.039 Enough about guns. 00:36:47.360 --> 00:36:53.440 Anyway, this is why I refuse to play along with the charade, with this invented hierarchy of importance. 00:36:54.159 --> 00:36:57.840 No move, my friends, no price move, no meaning. 00:36:58.400 --> 00:37:08.480 People will tell you the Fed matters, that their forecasts matter, that their revisions, the PCE revision from last Wednesday, that that matters. 00:37:09.280 --> 00:37:21.119 Why would I grant authority to an institution that has spent years being consistently wrong about the thing it claims to control and doesn't? 00:37:22.000 --> 00:37:23.920 They don't control inflation. 00:37:24.239 --> 00:37:26.480 They describe it after the fact. 00:37:26.639 --> 00:37:28.639 They describe it badly. 00:37:29.039 --> 00:37:32.719 And they revise their descriptions as reality. 00:37:34.000 --> 00:37:35.440 Forces them to. 00:37:35.920 --> 00:37:37.679 That's why I watch price. 00:37:37.840 --> 00:37:41.440 I don't outsource my judgment to bureaucrats. 00:37:42.079 --> 00:37:47.360 Bureaucrats guessing with less vulgar vocabulary than yours truly. 00:37:48.159 --> 00:37:52.239 So the same applies to the PCE indicator. 00:37:55.199 --> 00:37:59.039 I'm writing, I'm talking to you on his thirsty. 00:37:59.599 --> 00:38:01.039 Thirsty night. 00:38:01.360 --> 00:38:05.840 And in the morning, we're going to get PCE. 00:38:08.800 --> 00:38:11.679 And when you're listening to this, you'll know what's happened. 00:38:11.760 --> 00:38:14.159 Was it point two versus point three? 00:38:16.079 --> 00:38:19.199 Do second decimal points matter? 00:38:22.239 --> 00:38:23.840 I'm not listening. 00:38:24.480 --> 00:38:26.719 I'm sleeping in tomorrow. 00:38:27.199 --> 00:38:45.599 Because unless unless the PCE moves the only thing that matters, unless it moves the price of the treasuries, unless it takes the 10-year yield to 4.5, something would be broken, or on the way to being broke, being broken. 00:38:46.559 --> 00:38:53.440 Or if they take it to 4% the 10-year year, then something for sure has changed. 00:38:53.679 --> 00:38:57.199 Below 4.9, I would be buying. 00:38:58.079 --> 00:39:00.079 I'd be buying the treasuries. 00:39:01.039 --> 00:39:05.119 4.54, that's signal. 00:39:06.000 --> 00:39:12.000 Everything else is commentary layered on noise. 00:39:12.639 --> 00:39:13.840 So there you go, folks. 00:39:13.920 --> 00:39:15.199 That's the acid rule. 00:39:15.440 --> 00:39:16.320 No move. 00:39:16.639 --> 00:39:18.000 No move in treasuries. 00:39:18.239 --> 00:39:20.320 No meaning in the macro data. 00:39:21.280 --> 00:39:26.800 And that's why the street, that's why Bloomberg, that's why CNBC, they hate people like me. 00:39:27.280 --> 00:39:30.480 Because I don't need their narrative. 00:39:30.960 --> 00:39:33.039 I don't need their calendars. 00:39:33.519 --> 00:39:37.840 I don't need their permission to decide what matters. 00:39:38.239 --> 00:39:43.280 I I, me, and I hope you, we watch the price. 00:39:44.159 --> 00:39:46.320 We watch behavior. 00:39:47.360 --> 00:39:49.440 And we ignore the rest. 00:39:50.639 --> 00:39:56.239 I, you Andrew, have very much enjoyed speaking to you. 00:39:56.480 --> 00:39:58.559 I am the acid capitalist. 00:39:58.960 --> 00:40:06.400 I've I've slept 20 hours, but I had such a great weekend in Miami. 00:40:08.000 --> 00:40:12.320 But I will not play Wall Street's crooked game. 00:40:14.400 --> 00:40:16.960 I'm kissing, I'm saying B zoo. 00:40:17.119 --> 00:40:20.159 I was thinking what but what music am I going to play out? 00:40:20.480 --> 00:40:23.039 But I found such great, beautiful music. 00:40:23.280 --> 00:40:25.280 Do we play the acid capitalist? 00:40:25.360 --> 00:40:26.159 Or do we play? 00:40:26.239 --> 00:40:30.239 I've got this great song with my son the raining. 00:40:30.320 --> 00:40:33.440 I'm playing bass badly, but it's kind of meant to be bad. 00:40:33.599 --> 00:40:35.840 And I've got the old intern. 00:40:36.320 --> 00:40:37.440 The old, the young. 00:40:37.679 --> 00:40:38.079 Gabe. 00:40:38.239 --> 00:40:40.639 Gabe's playing really nice electric guitar. 00:40:40.719 --> 00:40:42.880 Maybe we'll end with that anyway. 00:40:44.480 --> 00:40:46.400 Good night, my friends.