Transkrip lengkap untuk Arguing about AI with Billy Hollis

Yeah, that kind of cemented that. 45 00:01:51.450 --> 00:01:56.769 So, my stepdaughter... Who's actually visiting with her husband and 46 00:01:56.829 --> 00:01:58.329 daughter this week. 47 00:01:58.590 --> 00:01:59.269 Your grandbaby. 48 00:01:59.670 --> 00:02:03.450 Worked for said Harvey Weinstein in New York. 49 00:02:03.609 --> 00:02:04.230 Oh, no kidding. 50 00:02:04.329 --> 00:02:09.099 For a while and left before all this stuff came out. Wow. 51 00:02:09.300 --> 00:02:10.500 She was not affected by him. 52 00:02:10.699 --> 00:02:10.860 Good. 53 00:02:10.879 --> 00:02:13.340 Let's put it that way. Lucky. Just kind of weird. 54 00:02:14.259 --> 00:02:19.020 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Yeah. It's an exceptionally destructive 55 00:02:19.060 --> 00:02:20.340 Atlantic hurricane season. 56 00:02:20.370 --> 00:02:22.409 Yeah. 57 00:02:22.900 --> 00:02:24.340 Las Vegas mass shooting. 58 00:02:24.530 --> 00:02:24.759 Yeah. 59 00:02:24.870 --> 00:02:29.590 Which has become like not news anymore. Unfortunately, uh, Russian 60 00:02:29.610 --> 00:02:35.090 investigation and Robert Mueller, uh, the North Korean nuclear crisis, which. 61 00:02:35.389 --> 00:02:37.550 Hasn't gone away, but really hasn't gone anywhere either. 62 00:02:37.810 --> 00:02:42.009 Hasn't gone anywhere either. It's contained for now. Uh, the 63 00:02:42.110 --> 00:02:44.389 Charlottesville white nationalist rally. 64 00:02:44.569 --> 00:02:45.210 Yeah. It wasn't good. 65 00:02:45.289 --> 00:02:49.810 August unite the right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia erupted into violence. 66 00:02:50.189 --> 00:02:57.870 It's not good. Um, The Rohingya refugee crisis in Myanmar. 67 00:02:58.840 --> 00:03:04.159 Hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims fled for Bangladesh following 68 00:03:04.180 --> 00:03:09.819 a brutal military crackdown. Brexit formally gets underway. Brexit, the 69 00:03:09.860 --> 00:03:12.379 best idea the Brits have ever had. Oh, geez. 70 00:03:12.539 --> 00:03:17.080 Well, oddly enough, I was in London for the official 71 00:03:17.759 --> 00:03:19.300 Brexit exit. 72 00:03:19.580 --> 00:03:20.509 Okay. Wow. I. 73 00:03:21.919 --> 00:03:26.930 signed up to speak at NDC London, which is in 74 00:03:26.969 --> 00:03:30.449 the Q. You guys have been there, I think. It's 75 00:03:30.550 --> 00:03:34.030 right there in Westminster, right there next to where everything happened. 76 00:03:34.550 --> 00:03:36.250 And I actually went down. 77 00:03:36.289 --> 00:03:37.590 Right where Protest Corner is. 78 00:03:37.870 --> 00:03:40.750 Yeah. And I mean, I had a great hotel, not 79 00:03:40.770 --> 00:03:44.800 very far because I got that before the Brexit celebration 80 00:03:45.400 --> 00:03:48.039 was scheduled. So I got to, I wandered around, took 81 00:03:48.080 --> 00:03:51.780 videos and pictures of That's probably the most historic thing 82 00:03:51.819 --> 00:03:53.419 I've ever managed to get in the middle of. 83 00:03:53.479 --> 00:03:54.120 Yeah, no kidding. 84 00:03:54.300 --> 00:03:54.560 Wow. 85 00:03:54.639 --> 00:03:56.860 You should go back to NBC London and watch now 86 00:03:56.939 --> 00:03:59.379 because what's protesting on that corner is we should rejoin 87 00:03:59.419 --> 00:03:59.879 the EU. 88 00:04:00.340 --> 00:04:03.280 Yeah. Probably not the same people. 89 00:04:03.919 --> 00:04:05.280 No, I'm suspecting. 90 00:04:05.620 --> 00:04:08.919 It was quite an emotional decision, if I could say that. 91 00:04:10.840 --> 00:04:11.060 Yeah. 92 00:04:11.719 --> 00:04:18.269 Okay. And the number 10 story is Catalonia independence. uh, 93 00:04:18.379 --> 00:04:21.939 Catalonia had held a disputed independence referendum, October 1st, despite 94 00:04:21.959 --> 00:04:27.759 opposition from Spain's government and courts, Catalan leaders subsequently declared independence, 95 00:04:29.000 --> 00:04:33.019 prompting Madrid to dissolve regional government and impose direct rule. 96 00:04:34.220 --> 00:04:35.439 See what I did there? Independence. 97 00:04:36.259 --> 00:04:38.009 Yeah. Yeah. Okay. 98 00:04:39.050 --> 00:04:43.149 That's the way they pronounce their asses. Anyway, Richard, tell 99 00:04:43.209 --> 00:04:45.949 us about what happened in 2017 in space and tech. 100 00:04:46.529 --> 00:04:49.459 All right. Uh, this is the year 2017 is the 101 00:04:49.490 --> 00:04:54.949 year that commercial cargo to the space station exceeds government 102 00:04:55.689 --> 00:04:58.389 transport to the station. So of course, the U S 103 00:04:58.430 --> 00:05:00.310 only ever supplied the station with the space shuttle, which 104 00:05:00.350 --> 00:05:03.529 hadn't flown since last flight in 2011. So that had 105 00:05:03.550 --> 00:05:05.470 been six years from that. So they weren't doing any supply, 106 00:05:05.509 --> 00:05:09.290 but the Japanese have vehicle, the HTV for a while, 107 00:05:09.350 --> 00:05:12.370 the Europeans flew a vehicle, the ATV, and of course 108 00:05:12.550 --> 00:05:14.350 the Russians with their progress boosters. 109 00:05:14.689 --> 00:05:14.870 Yeah. 110 00:05:15.350 --> 00:05:19.189 And so, And progress mostly have been sustaining the station, 111 00:05:19.509 --> 00:05:22.990 including bringing all people to it with the Soyuz for 112 00:05:23.029 --> 00:05:25.689 many years and still are. We're still not getting to 113 00:05:25.889 --> 00:05:32.060 commercial crew. But in 2017, SpaceX flies the station four 114 00:05:32.120 --> 00:05:35.259 times with Cargo Dragon and Orbital ATK, which is now 115 00:05:35.279 --> 00:05:39.259 part of Northrop Grumman, flew twice with their vehicle, the 116 00:05:39.300 --> 00:05:42.569 Cygnus vehicle. So that's six compared to three Progress and 117 00:05:42.689 --> 00:05:46.160 one HTV. So the amount of resupply of the stations 118 00:05:46.199 --> 00:05:48.480 remains the same. It's eight to nine missions a year. 119 00:05:49.079 --> 00:05:52.449 But in 2017 is when commercial represents the bulk of it. 120

00:05:52.550 --> 00:05:55.970 And what's the advantage there? It costs less. It costs 121 00:05:56.050 --> 00:06:00.649 a lot less. And so, you know, it'll always be 122 00:06:00.689 --> 00:06:02.050 that way going forward after that. 123 00:06:02.589 --> 00:06:05.170 It's pretty amazing to look at the nine years and 124 00:06:05.350 --> 00:06:10.500 how dramatically different the entire– wait to orbit and cost factors, 125 00:06:10.540 --> 00:06:11.220 et cetera, are. 126 00:06:11.259 --> 00:06:13.040 Well, and the miracle, you know, these are the years 127 00:06:13.060 --> 00:06:15.000 of the miracles because this is also the year where 128 00:06:15.439 --> 00:06:19.579 in March, SpaceX reflies a Falcon 9 booster for the 129 00:06:19.620 --> 00:06:22.439 first time. The one that landed the year before, right? 130 00:06:22.500 --> 00:06:24.639 This is just when this is happening. We take it 131 00:06:24.680 --> 00:06:29.620 for granted now. I don't. It's magic every time, but 132 00:06:29.660 --> 00:06:31.139 it happens a hundred plus times a year. 133 00:06:31.160 --> 00:06:31.939 Yeah. 134 00:06:32.000 --> 00:06:36.610 Uh, 2017, also the year of that great eclipse across 135 00:06:36.670 --> 00:06:38.980 the U.S. from Oregon to South Carolina. 136 00:06:39.250 --> 00:06:39.810 Oh, yes. 137 00:06:39.949 --> 00:06:40.620 I've got pictures. 138 00:06:40.810 --> 00:06:41.060 Yeah. 139 00:06:41.310 --> 00:06:43.360 From my backyard. I didn't even have to travel. 140 00:06:43.379 --> 00:06:45.839 Didn't have to. Well, and we saw it here, too. 141 00:06:45.879 --> 00:06:47.220 In fact, I was on the coast when it happened. 142 00:06:47.259 --> 00:06:49.600 And I did the colander trick where I just pulled 143 00:06:49.639 --> 00:06:52.139 a colander out and shone it on the ground. And so, 144 00:06:52.199 --> 00:06:54.920 I saw several. Several hundred little eclipses? 145 00:06:54.939 --> 00:06:55.899 Little eclipses, yeah. 146 00:06:55.959 --> 00:06:56.279 It's cool. 147 00:06:56.360 --> 00:06:58.819 And the trees. I have lots of trees in the yard. Yeah. 148 00:06:58.879 --> 00:07:00.800 And so, you could just take a picture on Broadway 149 00:07:00.819 --> 00:07:02.100 in these beautiful crescents. 150 00:07:02.339 --> 00:07:02.920 Yeah. 151 00:07:02.959 --> 00:07:04.740 You wimps. I got the glasses. 152 00:07:05.579 --> 00:07:08.230 Too much work. They did. Too much work. 153 00:07:08.250 --> 00:07:10.709 They did work. I put them on. I couldn't see anything. 154 00:07:10.750 --> 00:07:14.110 I'm like, these things are useless. And then I looked 155 00:07:14.149 --> 00:07:18.069 at the sun. I'm like, oh, okay. They're supposed to 156 00:07:18.089 --> 00:07:19.790 do that. 157 00:07:19.810 --> 00:07:24.189 Two more space stories here. In September– After 13 years 158 00:07:24.250 --> 00:07:28.509 of service, Cassini is deorbited into Saturn. The concern, this 159 00:07:28.550 --> 00:07:30.589 is a huge vehicle, one of the largest ever flown. 160 00:07:31.730 --> 00:07:34.279 Size of a school bus, right? And they don't want 161 00:07:34.300 --> 00:07:36.839 to take the chance with contaminating any moon like Enceladus 162 00:07:36.899 --> 00:07:41.040 or Titan. And so they deliberately fly it into Saturn 163 00:07:41.319 --> 00:07:43.800 and manage to get a couple of pictures of it 164 00:07:43.899 --> 00:07:45.959 as it goes through the first cloud layer. It takes 165 00:07:46.019 --> 00:07:48.639 a few pictures. So getting really close to Saturn, you 166 00:07:48.660 --> 00:07:50.819 can see the shape of it before it's destroyed. 167 00:07:50.899 --> 00:07:51.360 Very cool. 168 00:07:51.379 --> 00:07:54.459 A little sad, but also it's the responsible ending. It's 169 00:07:54.500 --> 00:07:58.449 what we do now is you don't leave junk floating around. 170 00:07:58.550 --> 00:08:02.310 Every time I hear about Cassini, I think of Scott 171 00:08:02.329 --> 00:08:09.759 Guthrie naming the in-memory– Web server in Visual Studio, Cassini. 172 00:08:10.019 --> 00:08:12.439 Right. I always think of arguing with Rob Conner about 173 00:08:12.459 --> 00:08:14.439 the terrible ending to his book, but that's, you know, 174 00:08:14.459 --> 00:08:20.110 apparently I'm the only one who hates that ending. To 175 00:08:20.129 --> 00:08:21.790 the point where he says, listen, if I tell you 176 00:08:21.829 --> 00:08:23.189 I'm not going to fix this, is this going to 177 00:08:23.209 --> 00:08:26.879 break our friendship? No, no, I'm okay with you being wrong, but, 178 00:08:26.920 --> 00:08:28.459 you know, we'll see what we have to do. 179 00:08:28.480 --> 00:08:30.850 Just next time you write a book. Send me the 180 00:08:30.889 --> 00:08:32.159 copy before you publish it. 181 00:08:32.669 --> 00:08:34.580 He hadn't published it yet, but he wasn't changing it. 182 00:08:34.629 --> 00:08:37.970 He liked his ending. He was just wrong. Last but 183 00:08:37.990 --> 00:08:40.149 not least, Oumuamua. Do you remember this? 184 00:08:40.870 --> 00:08:43.429 You know, I usually have that with gravy and some 185 00:08:43.450 --> 00:08:45.289 potatoes in Hawaii. 186 00:08:45.309 --> 00:08:49.730 Oumuamua was the first time we detected an interstellar object. So, 187 00:08:49.809 --> 00:08:53.909 this is an asteroid that came through the solar system 188 00:08:54.090 --> 00:08:56.110 at a sufficient velocity that came from outside the solar 189 00:08:56.129 --> 00:08:59.929 system and exited again. We didn't detect it until it 190 00:08:59.950 --> 00:09:03.750 had already passed around the sun in September. We saw 191 00:09:03.769 --> 00:09:07.659 it in October. It was detected by a land-based telescope 192 00:09:07.720 --> 00:09:12.299 called Pan-STARRS, which is specifically designed to find near-Earth asteroids, 193 00:09:12.659 --> 00:09:16.500 which is why we detected this one. We're sure there's plenty. 194 00:09:16.580 --> 00:09:20.019 We've seen more since. It's just that they're hard to see. 195

00:09:20.179 --> 00:09:23.299 They move fast and they're on funny planes. When we think, 196 00:09:23.379 --> 00:09:25.289 when we're looking for near earth asteroids, cause we don't 197 00:09:25.330 --> 00:09:27.289 want to go the way of the dinosaurs, right? Like 198 00:09:27.330 --> 00:09:30.169 dinosaurs are gone cause they didn't have a space program. Uh, 199 00:09:30.450 --> 00:09:32.250 we are looking along the plane of the ecliptic where 200 00:09:32.289 --> 00:09:35.720 we're at the highest risk of collision. And when Amumuah 201 00:09:35.759 --> 00:09:38.259 passed that roughly in that direction, we were able to 202 00:09:38.299 --> 00:09:41.889 see it there. Uh, Lots of interesting conversation around this. 203 00:09:42.009 --> 00:09:45.970 It appeared to accelerate as it moved away from the sun, 204 00:09:46.250 --> 00:09:48.769 which is weird. That normally happens with comets, but then 205 00:09:48.830 --> 00:09:51.590 comets have a huge amount of emission, like you're superheating. 206 00:09:52.210 --> 00:09:55.129 The water on the comet is heating up and being 207 00:09:55.210 --> 00:09:57.740 jetted out, and that gives additional propulsion. None of that 208 00:09:57.779 --> 00:10:01.039 appeared from Oumuamua. This caused guys like Avi Loeb, who 209 00:10:01.620 --> 00:10:03.200 used to be a credible scientist, but has turned into 210 00:10:03.220 --> 00:10:04.820 a bit of a crackpot these days to say, oh, 211 00:10:04.879 --> 00:10:08.389 it's actually a spacecraft. Pretty sure it's a rock. But 212 00:10:08.429 --> 00:10:10.230 it was a weird rock. Like, near as you could tell, 213 00:10:10.269 --> 00:10:14.009 it was sort of cigar-shaped, and tumbling fairly slowly. 214 00:10:14.049 --> 00:10:16.509 There was another one that came through last year, wasn't it? 215 00:10:16.590 --> 00:10:18.639 Yep. I think we're on a third or fourth now. 216 00:10:19.080 --> 00:10:22.340 And people were freaking out thinking it was a spaceship 217 00:10:22.379 --> 00:10:24.940 and there was also, you know, look at these lights, 218 00:10:25.039 --> 00:10:25.360 you know. 219 00:10:25.539 --> 00:10:28.799 Yeah. It's pretty unlikely, you know. And, you know, you 220 00:10:28.840 --> 00:10:30.399 need really great evidence if you're going to make a 221 00:10:30.440 --> 00:10:31.299 great claim like that. 222 00:10:31.460 --> 00:10:31.679 Right. 223 00:10:31.720 --> 00:10:33.470 But the main thing that's happened and I think it's 224 00:10:33.490 --> 00:10:35.230 the good news is, you know, for the past 10 225 00:10:35.230 --> 00:10:38.230 years or so, we've had good enough sensors to start 226 00:10:38.269 --> 00:10:41.230 to be able to see these things. They've always been there. 227 00:10:41.250 --> 00:10:44.840 We just haven't seen them. All right, on the computing side, 228 00:10:44.860 --> 00:10:47.629 a bunch of interesting stories in 2017. We can nail 229 00:10:47.649 --> 00:10:50.600 the Microsoft ones quickly, some good news, some bad. Visual 230 00:10:50.620 --> 00:10:54.440 Studio 2017, which I don't think is a very remarkable 231 00:10:54.519 --> 00:10:56.820 version of Studio, except that it was really the version 232 00:10:56.860 --> 00:11:00.299 that started embracing the reality of we're in a GitHub 233 00:11:00.559 --> 00:11:04.019 Azure container world where we don't care what the operating 234 00:11:04.059 --> 00:11:07.779 system the container runs in. We get. NET Core 1.1. 235 00:11:07.759 --> 00:11:10.139 They're putting together the tools for the way that we 236 00:11:10.179 --> 00:11:14.639 work today where you're deploying into the cloud using Linux-based containers. 237 00:11:14.659 --> 00:11:14.980 Yeah. 238 00:11:15.320 --> 00:11:17.480 So, you know, much more focused on crossbot for 2017 239 00:11:17.480 --> 00:11:20.320 was kind of the version there. That's also, this is 240 00:11:20.340 --> 00:11:22.340 also the year that Teams launched, which I guess would 241 00:11:22.360 --> 00:11:26.179 be the bad news. Did I say that out loud? 242 00:11:26.230 --> 00:11:26.570 I feel bad. 243 00:11:26.590 --> 00:11:27.299 I hate Teams. 244 00:11:27.779 --> 00:11:29.789 Teams hates you back. It's only fair. 245 00:11:29.809 --> 00:11:31.529 I use it under duress. 246 00:11:31.970 --> 00:11:34.970 Yeah. It's also the year that Coplex finally shuts down 247 00:11:34.990 --> 00:11:37.669 because of course they've moved to GitHub completely. Started back 248 00:11:37.950 --> 00:11:41.509 in 2006. It was never, I mean, it was a 249 00:11:41.669 --> 00:11:44.590 source forge kind of mindset, but it's definitely the place 250 00:11:44.669 --> 00:11:48.340 where Microsoft would put up early code for us to 251 00:11:48.379 --> 00:11:51.220 download and play with and comment on. And we saw 252 00:11:51.240 --> 00:11:56.519 that rapid iteration, right? The AJAX toolkit, Silverlight came through 253 00:11:56.620 --> 00:12:00.279 that channel. So by October, it'll be read-only. And by December, 254 00:12:00.299 --> 00:12:04.179 it'll be gone and replaced with Archive. July is when 255 00:12:04.200 --> 00:12:07.279 Microsoft announced end of support for Windows Phone. And I 256 00:12:07.340 --> 00:12:11.470 think I kept a shrine to my 930 for five years. 257 00:12:11.970 --> 00:12:13.750 I have three of them in the drawer of broken dreams. 258 00:12:13.769 --> 00:12:16.389 You know, light a candle for a phone. Yeah, that's it. 259 00:12:16.649 --> 00:12:17.649 Yeah, there they sit. 260 00:12:17.840 --> 00:12:20.259 Okay, that's enough Microsoft stuff. Let's talk about the other 261 00:12:20.299 --> 00:12:23.279 important stuff that happens here. In June of 2017, the 262 00:12:23.399 --> 00:12:27.700 Google Brain Group publishes a paper called the Attention Paper. 263 00:12:28.679 --> 00:12:32.309 So this is eight Google researchers that were really focused 264 00:12:32.350 --> 00:12:36.789 on trying to improve translation. And they'd recognize that the 265 00:12:36.909 -->

00:12:40.309 way that machine learning was reading language was inefficient. It 266 00:12:40.330 --> 00:12:43.980 was sort of a one word at a time Bayesian 267 00:12:44.059 --> 00:12:47.200 methodology that didn't make for good translation. And they saw 268 00:12:47.220 --> 00:12:51.840 this parallel method they called attention mechanisms. So that every, 269 00:12:52.019 --> 00:12:53.379 the way they described it in the paper, which is 270 00:12:53.419 --> 00:12:56.110 very eloquent, is this is every word examines every other 271 00:12:56.149 --> 00:12:59.850 word based solely on the attention mechanism dispensing with recurrence 272 00:12:59.889 --> 00:13:01.250 and convolutions entirely. 273 00:13:01.429 --> 00:13:02.690 That sounds very familiar. 274 00:13:02.990 --> 00:13:06.750 What they're talking about is transformer architecture. And it's not 275 00:13:06.789 --> 00:13:09.090 a big splashy paper. It didn't make the news and 276 00:13:09.129 --> 00:13:13.049 so forth. But certain people read it. And it's sort of, 277 00:13:13.059 --> 00:13:15.980 you know, we talk about what's going on today. This 278 00:13:16.039 --> 00:13:21.019 is kind of the foundational paper, even more than the 279 00:13:21.019 --> 00:13:25.230 2020 hockey stick paper about how these models will grow. 280 00:13:25.769 --> 00:13:27.830 This is the one that makes the scientists go, hmm, 281 00:13:27.929 --> 00:13:31.610 we should look at processing language this way. 2017 is 282 00:13:31.649 --> 00:13:35.769 also the year of WannaCry. Now, I normally don't talk 283 00:13:35.830 --> 00:13:38.309 about viruses other than like first and so forth. What 284 00:13:38.330 --> 00:13:40.009 was the big deal with WannaCry? Well, it was big. 285 00:13:40.820 --> 00:13:43.679 It hit hundreds of millions of machines. It was a 286 00:13:43.720 --> 00:13:47.419 ransomware attack. The thing that was crazy about it was 287 00:13:47.500 --> 00:13:50.320 that it utilized a vulnerability that had a code name, 288 00:13:50.779 --> 00:13:54.340 Eternal Blue, because it had been developed by the NSA 289 00:13:54.679 --> 00:13:57.840 years before. And rather than getting a patch, they literally 290 00:13:57.940 --> 00:14:01.110 used it as a spying strategy. But when they got 291 00:14:01.169 --> 00:14:04.210 hacked by shadow brokers and leaked it, then it got 292 00:14:04.309 --> 00:14:08.529 widely distributed. Now, Microsoft always had a patch for it. 293 00:14:08.529 --> 00:14:10.259 They just didn't push it very much. But all of 294 00:14:10.279 --> 00:14:13.019 a sudden, they need to a whole bunch. The other 295 00:14:13.080 --> 00:14:17.759 weird part about this is that the attack, the ransomware 296 00:14:17.799 --> 00:14:21.960 attack that is WannaCry, had a kill switch. And the 297 00:14:22.039 --> 00:14:25.340 kill switch was based on every time the worm ran, 298 00:14:25.360 --> 00:14:28.139 it would check for a domain name that had never 299 00:14:28.179 --> 00:14:30.649 been registered. And if it was registered, then it would 300 00:14:30.669 --> 00:14:35.629 shut itself off. And when Marcus Hutchins had decompiled the 301 00:14:35.730 --> 00:14:37.970 ransomware and figured out how it worked, he registered the 302 00:14:37.990 --> 00:14:42.529 domain name and essentially stopped WannaCry. Beautiful. It's crazy, isn't it? 303 00:14:42.899 --> 00:14:45.019 Yeah, it is. But it's neat. 304 00:14:45.100 --> 00:14:45.340 Yeah. 305 00:14:45.500 --> 00:14:49.740 Yeah. It's very interesting. Last but not least, we're now 306 00:14:49.799 --> 00:14:52.120 coming into the era of this wave of quantum, which 307 00:14:52.159 --> 00:14:54.019 has faded off now, but this is when this new 308 00:14:54.080 --> 00:14:56.279 ascension happens. This is when Microsoft comes out big and 309 00:14:56.299 --> 00:14:58.659 they say, hey, we're going to start investing in quantum 310 00:14:58.679 --> 00:15:00.850 in a big way. Jason Zander actually led this team, 311 00:15:01.299 --> 00:15:04.730 and they talked about the topological qubit. You can go 312 00:15:04.769 --> 00:15:06.470 listen to Pat Hines' show about that if you really 313 00:15:06.509 --> 00:15:08.470 want to dig into it deeply. But they also then 314 00:15:08.529 --> 00:15:12.529 started immediately announcing toolkits. This becomes Qsharp and Azure Quantum 315 00:15:12.570 --> 00:15:15.850 and all that, and not to be left out. IBM 316 00:15:15.909 --> 00:15:20.240 also announces they have a prototype 50-qubit processor, and they 317 00:15:20.299 --> 00:15:25.639 have their own tool set called OpenQuasm, Q-A-S-M. And they 318 00:15:25.659 --> 00:15:27.460 start with 2.0. I don't know why, but that's what 319 00:15:27.480 --> 00:15:31.429 they do. And also another library called Quizzit. But it's 320 00:15:31.490 --> 00:15:34.730 the beginnings of the platform players saying, we think we're 321 00:15:34.750 --> 00:15:35.870 going to get something here. 322 00:15:35.889 --> 00:15:36.090 Mm-hmm. 323 00:15:36.519 --> 00:15:38.279 And so they started to put the ingredients together. I mean, 324 00:15:38.500 --> 00:15:41.470 you know, we're now looking back nine years and not 325 00:15:41.590 --> 00:15:44.009 much has happened, although we will have a wave. And 326 00:15:44.049 --> 00:15:46.309 over the next few shows, I'll make sure to include 327 00:15:46.330 --> 00:15:48.049 it because that's been certainly been something I've been playing 328 00:15:48.070 --> 00:15:48.710 Ghost in Tension to. 329 00:15:48.889 --> 00:15:49.049 Yeah. 330 00:15:49.230 --> 00:15:50.830 That's the stories of 2017. 331 00:15:50.830 --> 00:15:53.350 All right. Well, I guess it's time for that. fun 332 00:15:53.389 --> 00:15:57.679 little tune that introduces the section called better know a framework. 333 00:15:58.200 --> 00:16:06.139 All right, man, what do you got? 334 00:16:06.279 --> 00:16:10.799 Well, I have something that I'm, I'm doing and I 335 00:16:10.820 --> 00:16:13.440 want to tell

everybody about it. And for two reasons, one, 336 00:16:14.240 --> 00:16:18.379 it's an application that I produced and, And I am 337 00:16:18.450 --> 00:16:21.590 a software producer on this project. I am not a 338 00:16:21.649 --> 00:16:22.549 software developer. 339 00:16:22.769 --> 00:16:23.110 Right. 340 00:16:23.169 --> 00:16:27.009 Because I used an AI to do the dirty work. 341 00:16:28.649 --> 00:16:31.470 But it came out of necessity. And the reason that 342 00:16:31.509 --> 00:16:33.409 I want to bring it up is not just because 343 00:16:33.429 --> 00:16:35.769 it's a neat story, but I want some feedback from 344 00:16:35.830 --> 00:16:45.309 our listeners. Especially those who lead bands, musical groups. and 345 00:16:45.429 --> 00:16:49.870 have to wrangle the troops to find dates to play. 346 00:16:51.149 --> 00:16:54.009 So it's called Can We Play It? And you can 347 00:16:54.049 --> 00:17:00.230 read the documentation at canweplayit.app. Okay. It has links to 348 00:17:00.309 --> 00:17:05.970 the stores, but they're not there yet. But anyway, there's screenshots. 349 00:17:06.450 --> 00:17:09.309 There's an explanation of what it does. And I really 350 00:17:09.349 --> 00:17:13.619 would like anybody who manages bands to And especially, you know, bigger. 351 00:17:13.819 --> 00:17:17.099 Mine's a 10 piece, right? So it's very difficult emails 352 00:17:17.140 --> 00:17:19.220 and texts and spreadsheets and trying to figure out who 353 00:17:19.660 --> 00:17:22.940 can play what, when. And then people have questions and 354 00:17:23.009 --> 00:17:25.329 I can't answer them. I have to go back through email. 355 00:17:25.789 --> 00:17:27.490 Who's on this gig again? You know? 356 00:17:27.769 --> 00:17:27.970 Right. 357 00:17:28.210 --> 00:17:31.259 So basically it answers the question, can we play it? 358 00:17:32.049 --> 00:17:35.009 And here's how it works. I, the leader, I have 359 00:17:35.049 --> 00:17:37.630 an account and I'm the only one who pays for 360 00:17:37.670 --> 00:17:41.279 that account, subscribes, has a subscription. And then I invite 361 00:17:41.339 --> 00:17:45.079 members by email or text, depending on their preferred method 362 00:17:45.099 --> 00:17:48.359 of communication. And this is really important because some of 363 00:17:48.400 --> 00:17:51.859 my members never read an email. Some only read text. 364 00:17:51.880 --> 00:17:52.880 Some never read texts. 365 00:17:53.059 --> 00:17:53.279 Right. 366 00:17:53.400 --> 00:17:56.900 So it's an invite and then they install it. And 367 00:17:56.940 --> 00:18:02.240 then once I've invited all the members, their job is 368 00:18:02.299 --> 00:18:06.279 to go through the next three months and pick all 369 00:18:06.319 --> 00:18:08.460 the dates that they can't play. 370 00:18:08.660 --> 00:18:08.859 Right. 371 00:18:09.099 --> 00:18:12.509 Not that they can't. they can't. So they're the exceptions. 372 00:18:13.309 --> 00:18:15.829 And once everybody has done that and I get a 373 00:18:15.869 --> 00:18:18.890 request from a venue, Hey, can you play this date? 374 00:18:19.190 --> 00:18:20.869 All I do is I pick the date and I say, 375 00:18:20.910 --> 00:18:23.569 can we play it? And it says yes or no. 376 00:18:23.589 --> 00:18:28.140 And it takes into account subs substitutes. Like we know 377 00:18:28.160 --> 00:18:30.940 there's a trumpet player has two subs that can fill 378 00:18:30.980 --> 00:18:33.579 in for him. Tenor sax player has a couple of 379 00:18:33.619 --> 00:18:37.069 subs that could fill in for him. Um, And then 380 00:18:37.109 --> 00:18:40.069 basically I can send, if everybody can do it, I 381 00:18:40.109 --> 00:18:44.769 can send a confirmation with one click to everyone. Notifications 382 00:18:44.829 --> 00:18:49.960 in the app, email, text, whatever. And then they reply 383 00:18:50.019 --> 00:18:52.440 yes or no. And if they can't, they can assign 384 00:18:52.500 --> 00:18:56.279 a sub. And I can know in a matter of 385 00:18:56.920 --> 00:19:01.079 half an hour versus weeks of chasing down members if 386 00:19:01.119 --> 00:19:03.750 we can play this gig or not. We've even lost 387 00:19:03.910 --> 00:19:08.150 gigs because people didn't respond in time. And I have 388 00:19:08.250 --> 00:19:10.769 one member in my band who's kind of a senior citizen. 389 00:19:11.470 --> 00:19:15.210 Not that that matters, but his mind is going fast. 390 00:19:15.890 --> 00:19:18.970 He actually said, what's the deal with this gig here? 391 00:19:19.009 --> 00:19:21.690 And I said, yeah, you said you could play it. No, 392 00:19:21.769 --> 00:19:25.230 I got another gig. He double booked because he didn't 393 00:19:25.279 --> 00:19:30.240 remember saying that he could play this gig. Anyway, so 394 00:19:30.279 --> 00:19:33.259 can we play it.app? I wrote it as a Maui 395 00:19:33.279 --> 00:19:37.690 blazer app and it's got an Azure API backend and, 396 00:19:38.230 --> 00:19:42.769 and SQL and all that stuff. So I would like feedback, 397 00:19:42.890 --> 00:19:47.029 go look at the screenshots and tell me if you were, 398 00:19:47.049 --> 00:19:50.670 you know, if you're managing a band or whatever, you know, 399 00:19:50.950 --> 00:19:54.319 what would be some features that we could change or add? 400 00:19:54.339 --> 00:19:55.039 Cool. 401 00:19:55.450 --> 00:20:00.160 So I really wanted one of these Samsung Z Fold, 402 00:20:02.400 --> 00:20:06.180 you know, phones that opens up and it has this thing. 403 00:20:07.019 --> 00:20:10.059 And I went to AI and I said, hey, I 404 00:20:10.099 --> 00:20:12.460 want to write an application that can utilize this. Give 405 00:20:12.500 --> 00:20:14.740 me some ideas. And it said, based on what I 406 00:20:14.799 --> 00:20:17.829 know about you and all this, here's a couple of ideas. 407 00:20:18.640 --> 00:20:23.430 And Kelly said, you can only buy that if you 408 00:20:23.490 --> 00:20:25.269 write an app that can make money. 409

00:20:25.289 --> 00:20:27.089 Nice. 410 00:20:28.430 --> 00:20:30.750 So that's what I landed on. Anyway, that's what I got. 411 00:20:30.789 --> 00:20:32.910 Please send me some feedback if you're a musician or 412 00:20:32.930 --> 00:20:35.529 a band member or a leader. And let me know 413 00:20:35.569 --> 00:20:39.450 if you've got some suggestions. Canweplayit.app. That's what I got. 414 00:20:39.589 --> 00:20:40.490 Who's talking to us, Richard? 415 00:20:40.769 --> 00:20:43.549 Grabbed a comment off show 2014. That's the one we 416 00:20:43.609 --> 00:20:45.519 just recorded with Sean Wildermuth. 417 00:20:45.839 --> 00:20:46.480 Yeah. 418 00:20:46.599 --> 00:20:49.519 Who was talking, you know, with how life as a 419 00:20:49.539 --> 00:20:52.259 senior developer suddenly changed by AI, right? 420 00:20:52.579 --> 00:20:52.859 Yeah. 421 00:20:52.880 --> 00:20:56.240 Which I think is particularly relevant. And another old developer, 422 00:20:56.380 --> 00:20:59.930 Richard Rukima, or Code Pewter, commented on it. So, welcome 423 00:20:59.950 --> 00:21:00.690 to the old gang. 424 00:21:00.869 --> 00:21:01.130 Yeah. 425 00:21:01.289 --> 00:21:03.869 And I like Richard's comment just because it's a troublemaker. 426 00:21:03.930 --> 00:21:04.789 I like Richard. 427 00:21:04.849 --> 00:21:06.609 He said, I had the luxury of starting with AI 428 00:21:06.650 --> 00:21:09.490 harnesses on Greenfield projects where I controlled 100% of the requirements. 429 00:21:09.529 --> 00:21:11.470 It didn't take long before I decided to lean into 430 00:21:11.529 --> 00:21:15.579 it completely. Full YOLO mode. Full access. Full clients. Give 431 00:21:15.619 --> 00:21:17.859 the harness the intent. Give it the boundaries. And let 432 00:21:18.140 --> 00:21:18.779 it run. 433 00:21:18.799 --> 00:21:18.880 Yeah. 434 00:21:19.559 --> 00:21:22.079 My working assumption became simple. Build software the same way 435 00:21:22.099 --> 00:21:25.259 I would with Visual Studio. using the same architectural principles 436 00:21:25.299 --> 00:21:27.880 and standards that have developed over decades, except moved 100 437 00:21:27.880 --> 00:21:31.400 or even 1,000 times faster. And listening to you three, 438 00:21:31.519 --> 00:21:34.039 I hear a much more conservative approach. AI is useful, 439 00:21:34.059 --> 00:21:35.700 but you have to handle it like a grenade with 440 00:21:35.740 --> 00:21:39.410 the pin pulled. I understand the caution. I've deliberately been 441 00:21:39.450 --> 00:21:42.410 testing the other side of the equation. Instead of constantly 442 00:21:42.470 --> 00:21:44.910 watching every action, I've been asking, what happens if I 443 00:21:44.950 --> 00:21:48.369 configure the environment properly, establish the architecture and constraints, point 444 00:21:48.410 --> 00:21:51.250 the harness at the intent, and get out of its way? 445 00:21:52.470 --> 00:21:54.430 The further I push that approach, the more interesting the 446 00:21:54.470 --> 00:21:57.609 results have become. The code increasingly comes out structured the 447 00:21:57.630 --> 00:22:00.259 way I expect because I've spent time configuring the harness 448 00:22:00.430 --> 00:22:03.940 around how I build software. There are failures. There are pitfalls. 449 00:22:04.119 --> 00:22:06.019 You still need to review what gets produced, but the 450 00:22:06.059 --> 00:22:08.519 sheer amount of work one experienced person gets through changes 451 00:22:08.579 --> 00:22:12.569 the economics of the software development. We're approaching a strange problem. 452 00:22:12.660 --> 00:22:14.910 One person with an AI harness produces so much code 453 00:22:14.930 --> 00:22:17.609 so quickly that you start wondering whether the bottleneck becomes 454 00:22:17.670 --> 00:22:21.490 having enough experienced humans to review the output. That's the 455 00:22:21.529 --> 00:22:23.710 edge I'm interested in finding. And the further I push it, 456 00:22:23.789 --> 00:22:26.329 the faster I'm getting work done. It's scary, but it's 457 00:22:26.369 --> 00:22:27.029 also enthralling. 458 00:22:27.170 --> 00:22:30.690 I have a comment. And I love Richard Rukema. Rukema? 459 00:22:30.789 --> 00:22:31.710 Yeah. 460 00:22:31.849 --> 00:22:34.690 He came to Dakota in the castle a couple of 461 00:22:34.710 --> 00:22:38.569 years ago in Tuscany. But Richard, I'm going to defend 462 00:22:38.710 --> 00:22:44.490 our conservative stance, or at least mine. A great person 463 00:22:44.750 --> 00:22:50.079 who shall remain nameless, Patrick Hines, once said that convenience 464 00:22:50.220 --> 00:22:53.980 is the enemy of security. And it's true. And I 465 00:22:54.079 --> 00:23:00.329 think you are experiencing the sheer convenience and to your amazement, 466 00:23:00.789 --> 00:23:04.750 the efficacy of this stuff right now. But the danger, 467 00:23:04.809 --> 00:23:07.390 of course, is if you get too complacent and you 468 00:23:07.410 --> 00:23:14.089 stop checking the code, then you are susceptible to security problems. 469 00:23:14.369 --> 00:23:18.119 And you're also susceptible to not being able to defend 470 00:23:18.240 --> 00:23:21.920 the code. Like somebody says, this is great, but why 471 00:23:21.940 --> 00:23:24.180 did you do that? And you kind of like scratch 472 00:23:24.200 --> 00:23:25.680 your head and say, I don't know, I'm going to 473 00:23:25.720 --> 00:23:28.250 have to check that out. And you'll probably ask your 474 00:23:28.309 --> 00:23:31.430 AI to check it out for you. But so in 475 00:23:31.509 --> 00:23:36.410 this early times, I admit I'm using AI to produce 476 00:23:37.369 --> 00:23:40.829 and I'm being very productive, but I go very slowly. 477 00:23:40.990 --> 00:23:43.089 I take it in steps and in every step I 478 00:23:43.170 --> 00:23:45.930 check and I test and And I look, and I 479 00:23:45.990 --> 00:23:48.269 set breakpoints, and I find out what it's doing, and 480 00:23:48.329 --> 00:23:52.490 I okay it, just

like a manager would do that 481 00:23:52.630 --> 00:23:58.250 to software developers under that manager. And I think that's 482 00:23:58.289 --> 00:24:01.430 the smart way to go. You're saving all this time. 483 00:24:02.009 --> 00:24:05.210 Why not just put a little bit back into checking? 484 00:24:05.230 --> 00:24:06.990 All right, Rich, I don't think you need another copy 485 00:24:07.029 --> 00:24:10.269 of Muse to Codeby, but feel free to ping me anyway. 486 00:24:10.549 --> 00:24:13.559 It's certainly great to get in touch. And if you'd 487 00:24:13.599 --> 00:24:14.759 like a copy of Music to Code By, write a 488 00:24:14.779 --> 00:24:17.160 comment on the website at. netrocks. com. We're on the Facebooks. 489 00:24:17.180 --> 00:24:18.700 We publish every show there. And if you comment there 490 00:24:18.720 --> 00:24:20.220 and I read it in the show, we'll send you 491 00:24:20.240 --> 00:24:21.059 a copy of Music to Code By. 492 00:24:21.400 --> 00:24:23.980 And if you want to just get Music to Code By, 493 00:24:24.019 --> 00:24:30.819 go to musictocodeby.net. You can download the 22-track collection in MP3, FLAC, 494 00:24:30.980 --> 00:24:32.359 and WAV formats. 495 00:24:34.029 --> 00:24:34.440 All right. 496 00:24:34.529 --> 00:24:36.809 And now let's bring in Billy. You heard him talking 497 00:24:36.849 --> 00:24:39.970 in the intro there, but he needs no introduction. But 498 00:24:39.990 --> 00:24:42.170 I'm still going to read his bio anyway because it's great. 499 00:24:42.819 --> 00:24:45.319 Billy Hollis is a software designer and developer with a 500 00:24:45.400 --> 00:24:46.720 contrarian streak. 501 00:24:47.839 --> 00:24:48.819 Really? Shock. 502 00:24:48.859 --> 00:24:49.849 Is this a new bio? 503 00:24:50.329 --> 00:24:50.789 Yeah, weird. 504 00:24:52.170 --> 00:24:56.109 This contrarian streak often challenges conventional wisdom in the industry. 505 00:24:56.710 --> 00:24:59.990 He has a consulting practice in Nashville, Tennessee, in the 506 00:25:00.029 --> 00:25:04.940 United States, and his team focuses on user experience design, 507 00:25:05.539 --> 00:25:11.670 advanced user interface development, rules-based architectures, and healthcare systems. He 508 00:25:11.690 --> 00:25:15.470 teaches classes for design thinking and UX design and technical 509 00:25:15.509 --> 00:25:19.549 classes on XAML for WinUI and XAML for WPF. It's 510 00:25:19.710 --> 00:25:20.410 Billy Hollis. 511 00:25:20.710 --> 00:25:23.650 Thank you, Carl. Always nice to be back. And what 512 00:25:23.730 --> 00:25:26.140 is this, 26, 7? 513 00:25:26.140 --> 00:25:27.220 Probably. Something like that. 514 00:25:27.240 --> 00:25:30.759 Something like that at the podcast. I've done something like that. 515 00:25:30.819 --> 00:25:32.859 You're out there in the front runners, my friend, for sure. 516 00:25:32.900 --> 00:25:36.400 Yeah. And I've enjoyed every single one of them. So 517 00:25:36.640 --> 00:25:39.309 we ought to have some fun today. I was listening 518 00:25:39.349 --> 00:25:43.970 to you talk about your use of AI and what's 519 00:25:44.130 --> 00:25:45.460 the person I'm not familiar with? 520 00:25:45.490 --> 00:25:46.150 Richard Rukema? 521 00:25:46.539 --> 00:25:51.940 Yeah. And I completely respect that and what it's doing. 522 00:25:52.019 --> 00:25:55.640 And I hear other people saying similar things. And I'm 523 00:25:55.779 --> 00:26:01.480 coming at it from a different perspective because, first of all, 524 00:26:01.549 --> 00:26:04.089 I don't do as much actual coding as I used 525 00:26:04.109 --> 00:26:05.349 to have a team for that. A lot of the 526 00:26:05.369 --> 00:26:08.970 stuff we're doing is pretty advanced and advanced architectures. And 527 00:26:09.029 --> 00:26:11.369 I don't know that we're at the point that these 528 00:26:11.769 --> 00:26:16.430 all-encompassing systems are accessible to just prompting your way through 529 00:26:16.450 --> 00:26:19.170 it yet. You could do pieces, but I'm not sure 530 00:26:19.210 --> 00:26:21.859 you could do kind of the unified stuff that we 531 00:26:21.920 --> 00:26:25.000 tend to do. In addition to that, I don't find 532 00:26:25.980 --> 00:26:29.980 a lot of the coding AI generation to be very 533 00:26:30.039 --> 00:26:32.519 helpful because I find it doesn't do a very good 534 00:26:32.559 --> 00:26:36.380 job with XAML. Because I guess there's not really a 535 00:26:36.420 --> 00:26:40.440 lot of good training material for it out there. 536 00:26:40.599 --> 00:26:42.609 And if what there is, you probably wrote it. 537 00:26:43.240 --> 00:26:48.829 Well, actually probably not because while I put my stuff 538 00:26:48.910 --> 00:26:51.769 out there sort of freely available, I've never put anything 539 00:26:51.789 --> 00:26:54.549 on GitHub where it was, where the models would, would 540 00:26:54.609 --> 00:26:58.279 normally go to get it. Um, and, and, I've observed 541 00:26:58.339 --> 00:27:01.160 over the years that the quality of the XAML code 542 00:27:01.180 --> 00:27:04.359 that I see written by the typical average corporate developer, 543 00:27:04.579 --> 00:27:09.440 which probably comprises the stuff on GitHub, that quality isn't 544 00:27:09.460 --> 00:27:13.480 very good. They don't use XAML in the interesting way 545 00:27:13.500 --> 00:27:16.259 that my team and I tend to. So it doesn't 546 00:27:16.299 --> 00:27:20.539 really help me much in the coding area because of that. 547 00:27:21.160 --> 00:27:25.119 It doesn't help me in the writing area. Because I've 548 00:27:25.140 --> 00:27:28.720 written several million words, and my brain's trained up to 549 00:27:28.819 --> 00:27:31.019 do that. So that if I'm going to write a 550 00:27:31.039 --> 00:27:34.000 three-paragraph email to somebody, there's no way in the world 551 00:27:34.039 --> 00:27:36.599 I'm going to an LLM to do that. I mean, 552 00:27:36.980 --> 00:27:39.119 I can write that so quickly, and it will express 553

00:27:39.240 --> 00:27:42.960 exactly what I want. And I guess maybe as a writer, 554 00:27:43.279 --> 00:27:47.140 I'm very tuned to the tone and the style of 555 00:27:47.339 --> 00:27:51.529 AI writing. And it just sounds wrong to me. It's 556 00:27:51.569 --> 00:27:53.930 just sloppy. So I don't use it in the writing. 557 00:27:54.190 --> 00:27:58.089 I use it for image generation a fair amount because 558 00:27:58.130 --> 00:27:59.950 if I'm doing slideshows and such and I want to 559 00:27:59.970 --> 00:28:03.809 get illustrated visuals of the things that I do. And 560 00:28:04.210 --> 00:28:06.309 while that is helpful and I get some good stuff 561 00:28:06.369 --> 00:28:08.430 out of it, I also get some of the most 562 00:28:08.599 --> 00:28:12.859 bizarre and incoherent stuff out of it that I've ever seen, 563 00:28:12.890 --> 00:28:16.460 which I posted some of those on my ex Twitter account. 564 00:28:16.920 --> 00:28:20.099 And at times, I mean, I've got an absolute incoherent 565 00:28:20.279 --> 00:28:24.980 gibberish out of A.I. I was doing a search just 566 00:28:25.019 --> 00:28:29.559 to find words that rhyme with something. And I posted 567 00:28:29.619 --> 00:28:32.059 it on my Twitter account. I'll give a link to 568 00:28:32.099 --> 00:28:34.880 that for the show if you like. But what Copilot 569 00:28:34.900 --> 00:28:38.480 came back with, I'm telling you, it was just incoherent. 570 00:28:38.819 --> 00:28:42.059 And that makes me nervous about it. I can't have 571 00:28:42.099 --> 00:28:45.680 that confidence that he had in the comment that everything 572 00:28:45.700 --> 00:28:47.869 is just going to be okay because I see too 573 00:28:47.880 --> 00:28:48.960 many things going wrong. 574 00:28:49.200 --> 00:28:52.220 Yeah, and you said it when you said it doesn't 575 00:28:52.319 --> 00:28:58.029 particularly write good XAML. It does, however, write good Blazor, C-sharp, 576 00:28:58.470 --> 00:29:04.730 web code, really good. And it turns out the Blazor 577 00:29:04.930 --> 00:29:07.410 MAUI stuff it did a really good job on as well. 578 00:29:07.990 --> 00:29:10.319 And I'm perfectly prepared to believe all that, that it 579 00:29:10.380 --> 00:29:13.759 is doing a good job in those areas. Yeah. So 580 00:29:13.819 --> 00:29:16.740 I keep trying new things and I do run into 581 00:29:17.319 --> 00:29:20.759 enough obstacles and blocks that I don't use it routinely, 582 00:29:20.779 --> 00:29:23.519 but I try to investigate things. And I also look 583 00:29:23.559 --> 00:29:26.740 at kind of the bigger picture if I can about 584 00:29:26.789 --> 00:29:29.269 what's going on in the industry and try to understand 585 00:29:30.430 --> 00:29:34.089 how things are going to develop. And there are potential 586 00:29:34.589 --> 00:29:36.849 issues there. I think a lot of us are kind 587 00:29:36.869 --> 00:29:39.130 of sensitive to it. And I think it's important to 588 00:29:39.150 --> 00:29:43.079 talk about that stuff because the proponents of AI, the 589 00:29:43.119 --> 00:29:45.940 guys who have a vested interest in it, are not 590 00:29:46.039 --> 00:29:48.740 going to talk about these things. They don't like to. 591 00:29:49.019 --> 00:29:52.859 There are some fairly well-known people, including AI researchers out there, 592 00:29:53.220 --> 00:29:56.500 like Gary Marcus, if you know who that is, and 593 00:29:56.579 --> 00:29:59.880 a fellow named Ed Zitron. And they kind of take 594 00:30:00.279 --> 00:30:04.430 that negative sort of, this could go wrong in these ways. 595 00:30:04.589 --> 00:30:07.990 And I honestly think it's worthwhile for us to know 596 00:30:08.029 --> 00:30:09.490 about them. There's an old saying. 597 00:30:09.690 --> 00:30:10.230 Absolutely. 598 00:30:10.529 --> 00:30:13.990 That if you see a problem rolling down the hill 599 00:30:14.089 --> 00:30:18.220 at you, that it's nine out of 10 chances that 600 00:30:18.240 --> 00:30:19.759 it's going to roll into a ditch before it gets 601 00:30:19.779 --> 00:30:23.539 to you. And I think that's probably true. But if 602 00:30:23.579 --> 00:30:26.819 you've got enough problems, eventually one of them hits you 603 00:30:27.440 --> 00:30:31.279 and starts to cause the problem. I've got a list. 604 00:30:31.319 --> 00:30:33.680 Let's see if I can go through it and see 605 00:30:33.700 --> 00:30:36.119 which one of these resonate with you guys and you 606 00:30:36.140 --> 00:30:37.549 want to talk about. I have one at the end 607 00:30:37.569 --> 00:30:40.329 that I'd like to go through. What are we going 608 00:30:40.349 --> 00:30:42.089 to do about the people who can't find work because 609 00:30:42.109 --> 00:30:42.890 of AI displacement? 610 00:30:43.029 --> 00:30:44.509 That's a huge issue. 611 00:30:44.869 --> 00:30:47.450 What's that going to do to them psychologically? That's a 612 00:30:47.509 --> 00:30:52.140 huge issue. Are we in a bubble? If we are, 613 00:30:52.599 --> 00:30:55.180 what kind is it? What will the aftermath be? Because 614 00:30:55.299 --> 00:30:58.900 some bubbles don't don't really cause any long-term problems. I 615 00:30:58.920 --> 00:31:01.000 think about the fiber optic bubble in the late 90s. 616 00:31:01.859 --> 00:31:04.579 And there was a huge bubble in it. A lot 617 00:31:04.599 --> 00:31:08.849 of companies that over-invested in it lost everything. Other people 618 00:31:08.930 --> 00:31:12.069 bought those assets for pennies on the dollars and created 619 00:31:12.089 --> 00:31:14.809 the foundation of today's internet out of all that fiber 620 00:31:14.869 --> 00:31:15.589 optic capacity. 621 00:31:16.109 --> 00:31:18.630 Yeah, well, I mean, that was really the web bubble. Yeah, 622 00:31:18.670 --> 00:31:20.650 that was the web bubble. Right, the dot-com boom. 623 00:31:20.890 --> 00:31:23.559 And we have a bubble like that in which everything 624 00:31:23.579 --> 00:31:25.259 will turn out fine in the end. It's just that 625 00:31:25.319 -->

00:31:28.210 people got too exuberant early on. Right. 626 00:31:28.329 --> 00:31:31.309 Well, you get into what's the ass, what's the residual 627 00:31:31.410 --> 00:31:33.210 asset you can buy for 10 cents on the dollar. 628 00:31:33.250 --> 00:31:36.750 That's a, yeah. Yeah. And I don't, I'm not really 629 00:31:36.789 --> 00:31:38.990 sure I understand exactly where that's going. We'll talk about 630 00:31:39.019 --> 00:31:40.839 that at home because that's kind of another danger. 631 00:31:40.960 --> 00:31:44.099 Well, I mean, the residual asset is data centers, but 632 00:31:44.180 --> 00:31:48.279 those companies are building nose aren't financially, you know, stressed. 633 00:31:48.500 --> 00:31:51.700 Actually they're starting to, but they're, they're, they're big. 634 00:31:52.039 --> 00:31:54.339 There's also a lot of social pushback to data centers. 635 00:31:54.779 --> 00:31:55.819 all around the United States. 636 00:31:55.839 --> 00:31:57.140 That's a, that's a problem. 637 00:31:57.200 --> 00:32:00.019 Yeah. But that's, that's not the major issue here. They're spending, 638 00:32:00.059 --> 00:32:01.039 they're spending the money on. 639 00:32:00.980 --> 00:32:03.119 It one way or the other. And they're spending the money, 640 00:32:03.200 --> 00:32:06.670 but they have not discovered. That's another problem that the 641 00:32:06.769 --> 00:32:11.789 cost of the compute to service their customers is not 642 00:32:11.829 --> 00:32:12.309 making money. 643 00:32:12.609 --> 00:32:15.130 I think you're getting the bigger issue here is building 644 00:32:15.150 --> 00:32:17.839 a model, just organizing electrons by generating a lot of heat. 645 00:32:18.059 --> 00:32:21.140 And that money's gone. Well, it's what it's been is 646 00:32:21.220 --> 00:32:23.799 paid to the company built the data center, you know, 647 00:32:24.490 --> 00:32:27.529 The joke here is that Microsoft and Amazon and Google 648 00:32:27.569 --> 00:32:29.720 are posting record profits through this whole thing. 649 00:32:29.880 --> 00:32:33.200 Yeah, so they're going to keep going despite what are 650 00:32:33.240 --> 00:32:37.710 potential external effects, such as the negative effects of tying 651 00:32:37.789 --> 00:32:42.900 up so much of the planet's compute. Gaming computers, people 652 00:32:42.940 --> 00:32:46.640 building their own gaming computers has just absolutely gone off 653 00:32:46.660 --> 00:32:46.940 the cliff. 654 00:32:46.960 --> 00:32:47.940 It's impossible, yeah. 655 00:32:48.220 --> 00:32:51.920 Yeah, because they can't find the components at the price 656 00:32:51.940 --> 00:32:54.930 that they need. Now, if that spreads into the wider 657 00:32:54.990 --> 00:32:58.210 corporate world, what does that mean for corporations who need compute? 658 00:32:58.549 --> 00:33:01.029 My advice on Run As is here, my top of 659 00:33:01.069 --> 00:33:03.450 the year show was don't buy machines this year. Extend 660 00:33:03.490 --> 00:33:04.109 your warranties. 661 00:33:04.170 --> 00:33:05.130 Yeah, yeah. 662 00:33:05.170 --> 00:33:07.309 Because you're going to overpay for those machines you've got 663 00:33:07.329 --> 00:33:09.910 to amortize over four or five years. It doesn't make sense. Mm-hmm. 664 00:33:10.650 --> 00:33:12.579 But I was also presuming this was going to end 665 00:33:12.680 --> 00:33:14.480 and it doesn't look like it's ending anytime soon. 666 00:33:14.599 --> 00:33:15.920 It doesn't look like it's going to, no. 667 00:33:16.460 --> 00:33:19.039 I mean, it is deflating now. There's no question about 668 00:33:19.420 --> 00:33:22.119 the stock prices are off, the smart money starting to 669 00:33:22.200 --> 00:33:23.900 pull out of AI as it is. 670 00:33:24.160 --> 00:33:25.920 As it is, yeah. I kind of see some of 671 00:33:25.960 --> 00:33:26.640 that trends as well. 672 00:33:26.660 --> 00:33:28.400 But that doesn't mean there isn't a crash coming. 673 00:33:29.230 --> 00:33:32.809 But the problem I probably spend more time thinking about 674 00:33:32.950 --> 00:33:38.910 than any other is brain rot. The tendency of AI 675 00:33:39.349 --> 00:33:43.109 to get I mean, my philosophy about that has to 676 00:33:43.170 --> 00:33:46.690 do with the fact that thinking is hard work. And 677 00:33:46.730 --> 00:33:49.029 there are a lot of people who would prefer not 678 00:33:49.069 --> 00:33:51.579 to think. I mean, you start to see things in 679 00:33:51.650 --> 00:33:53.880 our industry where everybody just wants to be told what 680 00:33:53.920 --> 00:33:54.220 to do. 681 00:33:54.619 --> 00:33:56.019 Right. 682 00:33:56.220 --> 00:33:59.740 Just I don't want to design it. Just tell me, 683 00:34:00.599 --> 00:34:04.220 give me a set of design guidelines and prescriptive design 684 00:34:04.259 --> 00:34:06.849 that will just do it for me. And because I 685 00:34:06.869 --> 00:34:08.929 don't want to think about that. Well, I understand why 686 00:34:09.190 --> 00:34:11.340 design is kind of a weird discipline. But I think 687 00:34:11.380 --> 00:34:14.900 that that's a bigger, bigger issue is a lot of people, 688 00:34:14.920 --> 00:34:17.780 I think, get into doing their systems with AI because 689 00:34:18.260 --> 00:34:21.380 they don't want to think about the details anymore. Well, OK. 690 00:34:21.539 --> 00:34:23.179 Well, there's a group of people who thought it was 691 00:34:23.199 --> 00:34:25.210 going to be brain rot. We allowed garbage collection to 692 00:34:25.250 --> 00:34:28.269 happen automatically, too. Like you reference your own memory. 693 00:34:28.449 --> 00:34:30.670 That's what else comes to mind. 694 00:34:30.829 --> 00:34:33.730 I guess I'm not sympathetic to that because I always 695 00:34:33.809 --> 00:34:36.969 worked on a system that did garbage collection. I never 696 00:34:37.030 --> 00:34:38.170 worked in the secret. Yeah. 697 00:34:38.269 --> 00:34:42.050 And Socrates got really angry that his students weren't memorizing 698

00:34:42.090 --> 00:34:44.230 their speeches anymore because they had papyrus. 699 00:34:44.389 --> 00:34:44.969 That's right. 700 00:34:45.570 --> 00:34:47.750 It's like, this is brain rot. If you don't have 701 00:34:47.789 --> 00:34:49.630 going to put out the effort to memorize your speech, 702 00:34:49.690 --> 00:34:50.789 how serious are you? 703 00:34:50.989 --> 00:34:54.760 I also think that a software producer using AI to 704 00:34:54.820 --> 00:35:01.619 help them with design and code still has the brain engaged. And, 705 00:35:01.639 --> 00:35:04.380 you know, for example, for this last app that I 706 00:35:04.400 --> 00:35:07.469 worked on, I asked it for a couple of design 707 00:35:08.230 --> 00:35:11.900 options and I picked the one that I thought was good. 708 00:35:12.139 --> 00:35:15.519 And I, and I, and I augmented it, you know, 709 00:35:15.679 --> 00:35:18.300 based on, but the, the difference is I didn't have 710 00:35:18.340 --> 00:35:20.260 to go to Figma and figure out how to use 711 00:35:20.300 --> 00:35:23.500 their interface and all that stuff and CSS and blah, blah, blah. 712 00:35:24.039 --> 00:35:27.199 I just said, this is what I want. But I 713 00:35:27.260 --> 00:35:28.769 still had the designer's eye. 714 00:35:29.679 --> 00:35:29.949 Right. 715 00:35:30.389 --> 00:35:34.050 And I still had that input. And also, when developing 716 00:35:34.090 --> 00:35:36.519 these things, you don't just say, here, write a piece 717 00:35:36.539 --> 00:35:39.860 of software, poof, it's done. You do it in steps. 718 00:35:40.780 --> 00:35:44.239 And I've tested everything. It even helped me test things. 719 00:35:44.400 --> 00:35:48.239 I said, I want a script that I can go 720 00:35:48.340 --> 00:35:51.440 through to exercise all of the features with these three 721 00:35:51.480 --> 00:35:54.639 phones and these three users. Give me that, and I'll 722 00:35:54.679 --> 00:35:57.679 take screenshots along the way for documentation and tell me 723 00:35:57.719 --> 00:36:02.050 what the screenshot should be. So that was really, really helpful. Now, 724 00:36:02.070 --> 00:36:06.619 I could have done that without a script, but having 725 00:36:06.659 --> 00:36:10.219 that script, I could focus on the tests and testing 726 00:36:10.280 --> 00:36:12.199 and figuring out these problems. And in the course of 727 00:36:12.239 --> 00:36:17.460 doing that, I found several bugs that I hadn't found before. 728 00:36:18.219 --> 00:36:19.980 That's a producer's job, right? 729 00:36:20.179 --> 00:36:23.400 I will grant everything that you're saying there. Yeah. But 730 00:36:23.460 --> 00:36:26.449 understand that we're in a special circumstance here. We have 731 00:36:26.469 --> 00:36:29.190 two generations of people who had to learn to think 732 00:36:29.250 --> 00:36:29.989 about these things. 733 00:36:30.030 --> 00:36:30.269 Yeah. 734 00:36:30.750 --> 00:36:32.250 Conceptually and in detail. 735 00:36:32.409 --> 00:36:32.610 Right. 736

00:36:32.710 --> 00:36:37.550 Being leveraged in with these new tools. But, I mean, 737 00:36:37.590 --> 00:36:41.889 there's a pretty big related thing in college. College professors 738 00:36:41.929 --> 00:36:45.769 will tell you that their students don't write anymore. No, 739 00:36:45.949 --> 00:36:49.840 that's true. They just don't. shove it out with AI 740 00:36:49.880 --> 00:36:52.400 and they're not really learning that much. They don't read 741 00:36:52.519 --> 00:36:54.760 in depth anymore. They talk about the fact that they 742 00:36:54.780 --> 00:36:58.980 have students who couldn't possibly get through a 200 page book. 743 00:36:59.059 --> 00:36:59.320 Yeah. 744 00:36:59.599 --> 00:37:01.519 How many 200 page books have you guys written? 745 00:37:01.619 --> 00:37:02.780 That's hundreds. 746 00:37:03.599 --> 00:37:06.610 Written, not just bread. I mean, if you talk about red, 747 00:37:06.909 --> 00:37:10.849 it's probably in the thousands. And so, so that's, I'm 748 00:37:10.889 --> 00:37:15.630 talking about more of the longterm of people not developing 749 00:37:15.789 --> 00:37:19.070 their capacity in a way that And there are some 750 00:37:19.110 --> 00:37:22.030 studies that if you depend heavily on AI, especially for writing, 751 00:37:22.349 --> 00:37:25.789 that it does degrade your ability to then put it aside. 752 00:37:26.889 --> 00:37:29.510 But like you said, it is early times. These are 753 00:37:29.550 --> 00:37:32.789 new methods of learning emerging. The biggest challenge you're having 754 00:37:32.829 --> 00:37:37.019 in schools over this is that The testing apparatus cannot 755 00:37:37.119 --> 00:37:40.360 tolerate these changes. You no longer can test students in 756 00:37:40.380 --> 00:37:41.099 a meaningful way. 757 00:37:41.400 --> 00:37:41.659 Yeah. 758 00:37:41.780 --> 00:37:44.820 And remember, because I said at the beginning, nine out 759 00:37:44.860 --> 00:37:46.539 of ten of the things rolling down that look like 760 00:37:46.559 --> 00:37:48.860 a problem may not end up being a problem. And 761 00:37:49.119 --> 00:37:51.800 so I kind of granted that at the beginning. But 762 00:37:51.880 --> 00:37:55.280 I still think it's worthwhile to kind of understand which ones, 763 00:37:56.019 --> 00:37:59.619 what are the candidates? What are the possibilities? and maybe 764 00:37:59.679 --> 00:38:03.030 a little bit about how do they interact. Then I've 765 00:38:03.050 --> 00:38:07.110 seen a little bit about AI rot, the idea of 766 00:38:07.210 --> 00:38:09.929 AI being trained on AI-generated content. 767 00:38:10.030 --> 00:38:10.869 Yeah, don't do that. 768 00:38:11.210 --> 00:38:13.090 Yeah, well, I'm not sure they're going to be able 769 00:38:13.110 --> 00:38:13.710 to avoid that. 770 00:38:13.730 --> 00:38:17.269 Well, they definitely are because they see exactly that. It's degenerative. 771 00:38:17.409 --> 00:38:19.809 Yeah, it collapses the model there. 772 00:38:19.829 --> 00:38:22.889 They're

also now scrounging for new original data sources, like 773 00:38:23.469 --> 00:38:26.650 buying antique books, cutting them apart, and scanning them. 774 00:38:26.889 --> 00:38:30.059 Hey, I hate to interrupt this fiery conversation, but we 775 00:38:30.139 --> 00:38:33.639 do have to break here for these very important messages, 776 00:38:33.679 --> 00:38:39.099 so we'll be right back. Developers are asking a new question. 777 00:38:39.659 --> 00:38:43.320 Do we still need third-party libraries when AI can generate 778 00:38:43.420 --> 00:38:48.340 so much code? For common UI tasks, maybe, but not always. 779 00:38:49.179 --> 00:38:55.969 But deep functionality is different. Document editing, PDF generation... Rendering, conversion, 780 00:38:56.130 --> 00:38:59.969 and enterprise document workflows are the result of years of engineering, 781 00:39:00.190 --> 00:39:05.000 extensive testing, and millions of real-world deployments. AI can generate code, yeah, 782 00:39:05.059 --> 00:39:09.360 but it can't instantly generate decades of proven document technology. 783 00:39:10.159 --> 00:39:14.780 TXTextControl gives developers that foundation so you can focus on 784 00:39:14.820 --> 00:39:19.409 building your application, not rebuilding a document engine. Learn more 785 00:39:19.550 --> 00:39:20.670 at textcontrol.com. 786 00:39:26.539 --> 00:39:27.460 And we're back. It's. 787 00:39:27.429 --> 00:39:27.750 NET Rocks. 788 00:39:27.769 --> 00:39:30.090 I'm Richard Campbell. That's Carl Franglin. Yo. And Taco. with 789 00:39:30.130 --> 00:39:32.570 our friend, Billy Hollis. And I'm going to hijack the 790 00:39:32.610 --> 00:39:34.369 conversation just for a bit to push back on a 791 00:39:34.389 --> 00:39:37.739 few of these things too, because I agree with you, Billy, 792 00:39:37.760 --> 00:39:40.280 that right now, while we have skilled people in the 793 00:39:40.449 --> 00:39:45.599 old methods, they're reigning these tools into some degree because 794 00:39:45.619 --> 00:39:48.719 the tools are mature. You know, you can, I mean, 795 00:39:49.130 --> 00:39:52.949 We're having a revolution in security testing happening with these 796 00:39:52.989 --> 00:39:55.710 tools right now. The rate of patches for repairing a 797 00:39:55.730 --> 00:39:58.820 software is all time, which really counters the argument you 798 00:39:58.880 --> 00:40:02.300 can't make secure software with LLMs. It simply isn't true. 799 00:40:03.039 --> 00:40:05.380 The LLMs are turning into the tool most effective at 800 00:40:05.440 --> 00:40:09.059 finding security flaws. You just have to use them properly. 801 00:40:09.619 --> 00:40:13.170 But the real argument here is as our generation leaves 802 00:40:13.230 --> 00:40:15.309 this industry, don't you think the tools are going to 803 00:40:15.329 --> 00:40:17.750 improve enough that security is just not going to be 804 00:40:17.869 --> 00:40:20.449 optional because that's what the tools require? 805 00:40:20.489 --> 00:40:23.690 It's not now. It was never optional. 806 00:40:24.110 --> 00:40:24.449 No, no. 807 00:40:24.510 --> 00:40:27.309 I'm talking about the tools actually enforcing it, right? We've 808 00:40:27.329 --> 00:40:30.780 been able to ignore it, but as these tools improve, 809 00:40:31.400 --> 00:40:33.320 you think this will be an essential part of the process, 810 00:40:33.579 --> 00:40:34.480 as is architecture. 811 00:40:34.900 --> 00:40:37.539 And again, I grant all those things. And as I said, 812 00:40:38.420 --> 00:40:41.320 not all problems that look like they might come at you, 813 00:40:41.340 --> 00:40:42.420 end up coming at you. 814 00:40:42.980 --> 00:40:44.280 But it's worth talking about. 815 00:40:44.440 --> 00:40:46.610 Well, often you can run in traffic and get away 816 00:40:46.619 --> 00:40:47.989 with it. It doesn't mean you're not going to be 817 00:40:48.090 --> 00:40:49.469 splatted by a 4x4. 818 00:40:49.489 --> 00:40:54.269 That's right. And then I start to think about the 819 00:40:54.389 --> 00:40:58.889 wider sort of social effects. One of the examples from 820 00:40:58.929 --> 00:41:03.119 history that I like to think about is the effect 821 00:41:03.159 --> 00:41:06.440 of the automobile. You can just do all the cascading 822 00:41:06.500 --> 00:41:10.679 things about how the automobile works. See, when people first 823 00:41:11.920 --> 00:41:16.019 had it, it became a part of society. The conventional 824 00:41:16.039 --> 00:41:18.840 thinking was, well, yeah, it's a faster horse carriage. 825 00:41:19.039 --> 00:41:20.239 Yeah, we want faster horses. 826 00:41:20.389 --> 00:41:24.989 We want fast horses. But, I mean, the automobile caused 827 00:41:25.730 --> 00:41:28.679 the drive-in theater. because of other technological changes. 828 00:41:28.699 --> 00:41:29.429 Created suburbs. 829 00:41:29.800 --> 00:41:36.409 Created suburbs. It changed the mating rituals of our whole society. 830 00:41:36.690 --> 00:41:39.070 Well, where else would you go to the submarine races? 831 00:41:39.150 --> 00:41:42.860 Yeah. So when I kind of look at some of 832 00:41:42.920 --> 00:41:47.460 the effects of not just AI, but other related technologies 833 00:41:47.480 --> 00:41:51.900 and how they come together, it concerns me that the 834 00:41:52.260 --> 00:41:55.449 person-to-person communication that has been a part of society since 835 00:41:56.190 --> 00:41:59.880 history began Look, I know young people of my son's 836 00:41:59.920 --> 00:42:03.260 generation who will not answer a phone call. 837 00:42:03.900 --> 00:42:06.460 Dude, I won't answer a phone call unless it's on 838 00:42:06.519 --> 00:42:07.159 my schedule. 839 00:42:07.179 --> 00:42:10.840 Well, it goes beyond that, though. They also have no 840 00:42:10.880 --> 00:42:13.949 experience in actually talking to people in real time. They're 841 00:42:14.070 --> 00:42:17.449 terrified to call a doctor's office and set up an appointment. 842 00:42:17.469 -->

00:42:19.130 All of those things are true, Billy. I'm not going 843 00:42:19.150 --> 00:42:21.090 to argue with a minute, but it's NAI's fault. 844 00:42:21.269 --> 00:42:21.550 I agree. 845 00:42:22.510 --> 00:42:24.389 That was happening before this tool appeared. 846 00:42:24.409 --> 00:42:24.550 Yeah. 847 00:42:25.059 --> 00:42:27.840 I will posit that it's a temporary problem. All my 848 00:42:27.900 --> 00:42:32.320 kids went through this. Kelly's kids wanted their mom to 849 00:42:32.360 --> 00:42:34.519 make the calls on their behalf. And she said, no, 850 00:42:35.019 --> 00:42:36.519 we're going to sit here. You're going to make the 851 00:42:36.559 --> 00:42:39.219 call and you're going to talk to them. And they 852 00:42:39.260 --> 00:42:41.179 got over it. Do you know what I mean? It's 853 00:42:41.239 --> 00:42:45.019 not a permanent problem. I think it's a temporary technologically 854 00:42:45.099 --> 00:42:46.280 disruptive related. 855 00:42:46.300 --> 00:42:51.510 I hope that you are correct about that. And of course, 856 00:42:51.769 --> 00:42:54.550 the fact that they depend on On AI for writing, 857 00:42:54.590 --> 00:42:56.690 someone has to come out of college doing that, I think. 858 00:42:56.710 --> 00:42:57.329 Yeah. 859 00:42:57.429 --> 00:43:02.690 That puts layers in between people's communication. People talk about 860 00:43:02.750 --> 00:43:05.670 work slot, where somebody's in a job and they've got 861 00:43:05.690 --> 00:43:08.150 to generate some report or something. And they just kind 862 00:43:08.210 --> 00:43:09.849 of have AI do it. It doesn't have any depth 863 00:43:09.869 --> 00:43:12.670 or originality or anything in it. But they fulfill the 864 00:43:12.750 --> 00:43:15.699 letter of the job. That's very disrespectful. 865 00:43:15.719 --> 00:43:17.429 That's just because the job's not well described. 866 00:43:17.510 --> 00:43:22.719 It's not. Yeah. Well, yeah. Understood that. But those are all. 867 00:43:22.760 --> 00:43:24.179 This is a transitory effect. 868 00:43:24.219 --> 00:43:26.840 Things that have to be adapted, that we have to 869 00:43:26.900 --> 00:43:33.630 adapt to. Right. So, and, and you, Carl, you may 870 00:43:33.650 --> 00:43:35.949 be right that they're all going to get over it. 871 00:43:36.010 --> 00:43:38.469 But have you seen the clips? 872 00:43:38.670 --> 00:43:40.349 With help. Yeah. 873 00:43:40.530 --> 00:43:46.389 Have you seen the clips of college graduates booing commencement speakers? Yeah. 874 00:43:46.590 --> 00:43:47.690 Who talked about AI. 875 00:43:48.429 --> 00:43:49.210 Yep. Sure have. 876 00:43:49.309 --> 00:43:53.170 Okay. They are, they are not excited about this. They're 877 00:43:53.230 --> 00:43:53.989 negative about it. 878 00:43:54.250 --> 00:43:58.880 Yeah. And especially the Gen Z generation who didn't have 879 00:43:59.039 --> 00:44:02.820 the high school experience that they were, that their friends had, 880 00:44:03.059 --> 00:44:06.519 their older and younger friends. So, because that was COVID time, 881 00:44:06.639 --> 00:44:09.579 they were robbed of my, my youngest daughter was robbed 882 00:44:09.639 --> 00:44:12.800 of her high school graduation, her high school summer, like 883 00:44:13.519 --> 00:44:17.170 all of that stuff. just kind of went away for her. 884 00:44:17.429 --> 00:44:21.630 So they all turned inward into their phones and things 885 00:44:21.690 --> 00:44:26.070 and became very mistrustful of people, I think. And it 886 00:44:26.150 --> 00:44:29.050 took her a long time to, she lives in New 887 00:44:29.090 --> 00:44:32.210 York now, and to go out and pound the pavement 888 00:44:32.329 --> 00:44:35.639 and hit the streets and talk to people and be social. But, 889 00:44:35.820 --> 00:44:38.420 you know, she still doesn't answer my texts for three days. 890 00:44:40.559 --> 00:44:41.480 And I'm her father. 891 00:44:41.500 --> 00:44:47.219 Yeah. So I see a lot of sort of general 892 00:44:47.239 --> 00:44:52.599 stuff like that. The tangible example that I talk about 893 00:44:53.000 --> 00:44:55.480 because I've done some presentations and so I have a 894 00:44:55.480 --> 00:45:00.070 fair amount of thinking about it is where we're at 895 00:45:00.090 --> 00:45:06.309 in recruiting, interviewing HR stuff, because that's a pretty good 896 00:45:06.409 --> 00:45:11.289 one that that HR people. I've met some really good 897 00:45:11.369 --> 00:45:14.150 ones and I've also met some really lazy ones. And 898 00:45:14.269 --> 00:45:16.690 the lazy ones were some of the very earliest ones 899 00:45:16.809 --> 00:45:20.690 to get into automation of things that to me are 900 00:45:20.750 --> 00:45:25.219 fundamentally people to people. Right. And shouldn't be automated. So 901 00:45:25.260 --> 00:45:29.159 that we spent probably 15 years or so that resumes 902 00:45:29.239 --> 00:45:32.480 went to every resume in the tech industry has this 903 00:45:32.639 --> 00:45:36.260 big list of acronyms of the stuff you're supposed to, 904 00:45:36.619 --> 00:45:39.840 the technologies you're supposed to know. I call that alphabet 905 00:45:39.940 --> 00:45:45.760 soup in my life. my course on interviewing developers. Um, but, 906 00:45:45.820 --> 00:45:48.559 and they had, they did, people did that because the 907 00:45:48.679 --> 00:45:55.420 HR people automated resume screening on a keyword basis. Uh, 908 00:45:55.619 --> 00:45:58.280 and so people had to put stuff in there just 909 00:45:58.300 --> 00:46:02.139 to get through that first screen of, of the resumes or, 910 00:46:02.219 --> 00:46:05.420 or that they didn't go any further down the path. Um, and, 911 00:46:05.559 --> 00:46:09.079 and that was, it was understandable from the standpoint that 912 00:46:09.260 --> 00:46:11.119 if you got thousands of resumes, you got to find 913 00:46:11.199 --> 00:46:14.019 some way, to automate get through. On the other hand, 914 00:46:14.539 --> 00:46:18.010 I mean, I used to read

a couple dozen resumes 915 00:46:18.090 --> 00:46:21.590 a day when I was running a Microsoft partner in 916 00:46:21.630 --> 00:46:23.710 the late 90s. That was a big part of my 917 00:46:23.750 --> 00:46:26.250 job and doing the interviewing. That's where I got the 918 00:46:26.289 --> 00:46:29.059 experience to draw on for some of these courses I did. Actually, 919 00:46:29.079 --> 00:46:32.159 the first session I did on interviewing developers was at 920 00:46:32.340 --> 00:46:38.119 DevConnections 2014, I think, Richard. And it was a well-intended session. 921 00:46:38.380 --> 00:46:38.920 It went really well. 922 00:46:38.940 --> 00:46:41.559 That's why I kept developing in that area. And there 923 00:46:41.599 --> 00:46:43.090 was a guy that went to that session that I 924 00:46:43.159 --> 00:46:46.010 ran into a couple of years later. And he said 925 00:46:46.530 --> 00:46:50.730 that that approach of asking questions that were more about 926 00:46:50.750 --> 00:46:55.849 the human side of being a developer, that he used 927 00:46:55.889 --> 00:46:58.030 my process and some of the questions that I used 928 00:46:58.070 --> 00:47:02.519 and such. And he said it improved retention. Sure. And 929 00:47:02.639 --> 00:47:05.050 so I think there are getting into the human to 930 00:47:05.130 --> 00:47:09.480 human ways has has tremendous benefit. But HR seems to 931 00:47:09.519 --> 00:47:10.199 be going the other way. 932 00:47:10.300 --> 00:47:13.380 Well, I mean, they're also being– they are getting inundated 933 00:47:13.400 --> 00:47:16.239 with thousands of resumes. What do you do, right? And 934 00:47:16.559 --> 00:47:19.000 I remember triaging off resumes the same way where the 935 00:47:19.099 --> 00:47:21.059 slightest flaw in the resume, you just put it aside 936 00:47:21.079 --> 00:47:22.699 because you had to triage. 937 00:47:22.840 --> 00:47:23.280 Yeah. 938 00:47:24.030 --> 00:47:26.829 And now this has just been amplified by these tools 939 00:47:27.070 --> 00:47:27.829 both ways. 940 00:47:28.070 --> 00:47:28.670 Both ways. 941 00:47:28.809 --> 00:47:31.389 Both ways. In the end, this is a self-correcting system 942 00:47:31.409 --> 00:47:34.070 because you can't hire the people you need and the 943 00:47:34.110 --> 00:47:36.429 people who want to get hired can't get hired. Then 944 00:47:36.469 --> 00:47:37.340 they adapt. 945 00:47:37.409 --> 00:47:37.550 Yeah. 946 00:47:37.909 --> 00:47:41.389 So I think we're just in a weird time. I 947 00:47:41.429 --> 00:47:42.230 would agree that it's a. 948 00:47:42.210 --> 00:47:44.769 Weird time because at this particular point in time, most 949 00:47:44.829 --> 00:47:46.260 resumes are being written by AI. 950 00:47:46.510 --> 00:47:46.889 Sure. 951 00:47:46.949 --> 00:47:49.889 And they're being read by it too. And they're being 952 00:47:49.969 --> 00:47:52.070 read by AI. And I don't know if you saw 953 00:47:52.110 --> 00:47:55.119 the research on this. Somebody did some research to test this, 954 00:47:55.400 --> 00:48:01.260 and they found out that the AI's reading these resumes 955 00:48:01.679 --> 00:48:06.389 have a strong preference for for resumes that were written 956 00:48:06.710 --> 00:48:07.449 by the same AI. 957 00:48:07.489 --> 00:48:07.789 Of course. 958 00:48:08.010 --> 00:48:08.269 Yeah. 959 00:48:08.469 --> 00:48:10.269 Yeah. Yeah. 960 00:48:10.429 --> 00:48:10.679 Well. 961 00:48:11.179 --> 00:48:11.760 Figure that one. 962 00:48:11.949 --> 00:48:13.800 That's kind of a danger zone to me. 963 00:48:13.920 --> 00:48:18.159 There's evidence of this phenomena happening. I saw a commercial 964 00:48:18.199 --> 00:48:19.980 and I've seen it a couple of times from Chase, 965 00:48:20.039 --> 00:48:23.320 you know, the Chase Bank, right? And it's all about 966 00:48:23.480 --> 00:48:26.900 how robots have gone wrong, right? It starts out with 967 00:48:26.940 --> 00:48:29.739 a robot saying, coffee, how would you like your coffee? 968 00:48:29.780 --> 00:48:31.460 And the lady says, no sugar. And he takes the 969 00:48:31.539 --> 00:48:34.030 sugar thing and dumps it in there. And then it's 970 00:48:34.070 --> 00:48:37.889 just like, here's your copy. Enjoy it. And other things 971 00:48:37.969 --> 00:48:41.360 like that. And then the tagline is at Chase, we 972 00:48:41.389 --> 00:48:44.679 don't spend time figuring out how to remove people from 973 00:48:44.719 --> 00:48:47.860 the equation, but we're opening more centers where you can 974 00:48:47.900 --> 00:48:50.820 talk to us face to face. And that resonates with 975 00:48:50.860 --> 00:48:55.880 people for this very reason. But if a bank is saying, hey, 976 00:48:56.860 --> 00:49:00.070 you come to us, we're real people. Jeez, where were 977 00:49:00.110 --> 00:49:02.190 those banks 10 years ago when I used to work? 978 00:49:03.119 --> 00:49:05.500 Because there wasn't as much last batch against technology as 979 00:49:05.519 --> 00:49:08.909 there is right now. Going back to the graduates booing 980 00:49:09.130 --> 00:49:12.329 AI people, can you blame them? No. These guys have 981 00:49:12.369 --> 00:49:15.769 been marketing to investors on the back of, we're destroying 982 00:49:15.809 --> 00:49:18.329 all work, so you better invest in us. These are 983 00:49:18.349 --> 00:49:22.579 the guys trying to enter the workplace. Like, no surprise. 984 00:49:22.980 --> 00:49:25.219 And I think this is also a feedback of the pandemic. 985 00:49:25.300 --> 00:49:27.969 We're all a bit tired of screens. Once upon a time, 986 00:49:28.010 --> 00:49:30.630 we really liked the automation because it was more efficient. 987 00:49:31.190 --> 00:49:34.409 And now we're starting to remember, because we lost enough 988 00:49:34.449 --> 00:49:37.360 of it, that face-to-face communication sucks. kind of awesome. 989 00:49:37.480 --> 00:49:37.860 Yeah. 990 00:49:38.000 --> 00:49:42.110 And we're craving it, right? Even though these young kids 991 00:49:42.150

--> 00:49:45.699 or whatever are getting more depressed because they're not What 992 00:49:45.719 --> 00:49:48.739 they really want is human contact. And I think we 993 00:49:48.800 --> 00:49:49.119 all do. 994 00:49:49.400 --> 00:49:49.860 I do too. 995 00:49:50.139 --> 00:49:52.320 And so I think that it's bouncing back. 996 00:49:52.559 --> 00:49:55.039 And I'd like to think that somebody will figure out 997 00:49:55.079 --> 00:49:57.039 how to leverage AI to make that happen. 998 00:49:57.239 --> 00:50:00.559 Well, I think exactly right. These are just tools. It 999 00:50:00.599 --> 00:50:03.050 has a terrible name that makes everybody stupid. 1000 00:50:03.610 --> 00:50:04.239 Yeah. 1001 00:50:04.280 --> 00:50:07.110 But in the end, there are just new automation tools. 1002 00:50:07.570 --> 00:50:10.650 And the fact that we could have a face-to-face conversation 1003 00:50:11.090 --> 00:50:14.309 while the tool is doing a transcript and double-checking facts 1004 00:50:14.369 --> 00:50:17.400 and collecting useful information so that we get good results 1005 00:50:17.420 --> 00:50:19.800 from that conversation, that's a hell of an asset. 1006 00:50:19.920 --> 00:50:22.420 Well, to me, a useful sort of way of looking 1007 00:50:22.440 --> 00:50:24.699 at it is, from what I see, AI tends to 1008 00:50:24.739 --> 00:50:28.090 be good at things that are measurable, that are quantifiable 1009 00:50:28.670 --> 00:50:31.909 in some sense. And there are human things that aren't. 1010 00:50:33.150 --> 00:50:37.690 And so, for example, in the whole recruitment process, trust 1011 00:50:38.179 --> 00:50:41.000 is– People don't even think about this, I think, when 1012 00:50:41.019 --> 00:50:43.969 they interview. One of the things that they're zeroing in 1013 00:50:44.110 --> 00:50:47.389 on intuitively is, can I trust this person to be 1014 00:50:47.469 --> 00:50:52.429 on my team? And I mean, I don't know that 1015 00:50:52.449 --> 00:50:54.369 we're ever going to have a tool that says, yes, well, 1016 00:50:54.389 --> 00:50:58.760 this person ranks 92.6 on the international trust measurement scale. 1017 00:50:59.920 --> 00:51:02.360 I'm not sure that we're close to anything like that. 1018 00:51:02.860 --> 00:51:04.840 So now you're talking about things that have to be 1019 00:51:04.900 --> 00:51:09.139 established person to person. And the people who are going 1020 00:51:09.719 --> 00:51:12.619 whole hog into applying AI to all this stuff don't 1021 00:51:12.639 --> 00:51:14.340 seem to get that. So I think there's going to 1022 00:51:14.360 --> 00:51:16.579 be damage. I think there are going to be companies. 1023 00:51:17.719 --> 00:51:21.179 And again, a lot of stuff in the long term, 1024 00:51:21.469 --> 00:51:23.639 I hope, will fall out. But I think there will 1025 00:51:23.659 --> 00:51:28.210 be companies that will degrade themselves to the point of 1026 00:51:28.409 --> 00:51:34.909 failure because they over-depend on AI to pick their people. 1027 00:51:35.630 --> 00:51:36.050 Remember, AI. 1028 00:51:37.010 --> 00:51:40.869 It's all about the measurable stuff, but it also sort 1029 00:51:40.909 --> 00:51:44.369 of brings all the world's knowledge and puts it into 1030 00:51:44.389 --> 00:51:47.730 a blended sludge. Yeah. 1031 00:51:47.769 --> 00:51:49.929 Well, that is the superpower, right? 1032 00:51:50.309 --> 00:51:50.389 Yeah. 1033 00:51:50.409 --> 00:51:52.690 We've always had too much data. We certainly– and it's 1034 00:51:52.710 --> 00:51:54.929 been a crisis for a long time. And now we 1035 00:51:55.030 --> 00:51:59.909 finally found a way to JPEG language. It's a lossy 1036 00:51:59.949 --> 00:52:02.769 compression format, but it allows you to get through a 1037 00:52:02.809 --> 00:52:05.969 lot more data. The problem is that once it presents 1038 00:52:06.050 --> 00:52:08.610 information to you, you got to fact check it because 1039 00:52:09.150 --> 00:52:11.719 it's a lossy compression format. 1040 00:52:11.860 --> 00:52:16.480 And the concern about that for me being coming from 1041 00:52:16.500 --> 00:52:20.039 the design world, et cetera, is that if you fall 1042 00:52:20.079 --> 00:52:22.460 into those patterns of thought of kind of everything average, 1043 00:52:22.500 --> 00:52:27.809 everything sort of, if you don't work consciously, to free 1044 00:52:27.829 --> 00:52:31.179 yourself from that and come outside of it. Now, how 1045 00:52:31.199 --> 00:52:33.039 are you going to innovate? How are you going to 1046 00:52:33.059 --> 00:52:39.639 come up with completely new ways of doing things? And 1047 00:52:39.699 --> 00:52:45.949 companies need that. They need, look, a corporate organization can 1048 00:52:46.010 --> 00:52:49.210 only have a certain maximum number of people like me 1049 00:52:49.650 --> 00:52:52.750 who are always questioning everything. But you do need some 1050 00:52:52.809 --> 00:52:55.150 of them. They're the yeast in the bread, so to speak. 1051 00:52:55.190 --> 00:52:55.369 Sure. 1052 00:52:55.389 --> 00:53:00.320 That sort of makes things And AR tends to downgrade people. 1053 00:53:00.449 --> 00:53:02.340 If I could shift gears at the end of the 1054 00:53:02.380 --> 00:53:04.500 show here for a minute. You guys know who Mike 1055 00:53:04.579 --> 00:53:07.840 Rowe is, right? Dirty Jobs, Mike Rowe. He has been 1056 00:53:07.880 --> 00:53:11.059 an advocate for, and he even has a foundation for 1057 00:53:11.119 --> 00:53:13.119 supporting education for the trades. 1058 00:53:13.940 --> 00:53:15.960 You mean the least automatable class of work. 1059 00:53:16.260 --> 00:53:21.440 Yeah, exactly. And the whole argument goes, there are some 1060 00:53:21.760 --> 00:53:24.550 odd 40 million or 4 million. There's some multiple of 1061 00:53:24.550 --> 00:53:29.420 4 million people. open trade jobs right now and nobody 1062 00:53:29.559 --> 00:53:34.800 to fill them. And it's because people have, and going 1063 00:53:34.860 -->

00:53:38.260 back to when they took shop out of high school 1064 00:53:38.440 --> 00:53:43.739 and middle school, there has been this look down upon 1065 00:53:43.820 --> 00:53:47.000 the trades attitude. And you must go to college. You 1066 00:53:47.019 --> 00:53:49.280 must get a four-year degree. And everybody knows where that 1067 00:53:49.320 --> 00:53:50.460 got most people, right? 1068 00:53:50.619 --> 00:53:52.940 I just talked to a kid, a friend of mine's son, 1069 00:53:53.159 --> 00:53:57.320 who just graduated from a nice university in UK with 1070 00:53:57.360 --> 00:53:59.909 a mathematics degree. And you know what he's doing? He's 1071 00:53:59.929 --> 00:54:00.889 studying to be an electrician. 1072 00:54:00.989 --> 00:54:01.170 Yeah. 1073 00:54:01.469 --> 00:54:03.630 Not because he didn't like his mathematics degree, but he 1074 00:54:03.670 --> 00:54:06.690 wants to go make something. He thinks he'll go back 1075 00:54:06.730 --> 00:54:08.590 to school afterwards, but he's going to go apprentice. 1076 00:54:08.630 --> 00:54:11.199 One of my stepdaughters went to NYU for a very 1077 00:54:11.239 --> 00:54:14.300 expensive education, and she's a wedding planner. She's got her 1078 00:54:14.360 --> 00:54:16.500 own wedding planning business. It has nothing to do with 1079 00:54:16.780 --> 00:54:17.920 what her degree was in. 1080 00:54:18.059 --> 00:54:19.179 That's not that unusual. 1081 00:54:19.480 --> 00:54:23.159 But I wouldn't say that a degree isn't useful if 1082 00:54:23.199 --> 00:54:25.750 you think of it as a way to improve yourself 1083 00:54:25.809 --> 00:54:28.690 as a human, not necessarily to prepare for a job. 1084 00:54:29.380 --> 00:54:33.219 But the thing about the trades is that, yeah, like 1085 00:54:33.400 --> 00:54:38.840 Richard said, completely AI, they don't care. Your job isn't 1086 00:54:38.860 --> 00:54:41.849 going to be replaced if you're a carpenter, at least 1087 00:54:41.869 --> 00:54:42.530 for a long time. 1088 00:54:42.889 --> 00:54:45.230 Well, and I'm not convinced that anybody's job is going 1089 00:54:45.250 --> 00:54:48.909 to be replaced. It's just automation tools. You just move faster. 1090 00:54:49.599 --> 00:54:52.679 Well, we have talked a lot about in the past 1091 00:54:52.739 --> 00:54:55.190 about junior developers being screwed, right? 1092 00:54:55.269 --> 00:54:58.110 I disagree, actually, because junior developers embrace these new tools 1093 00:54:58.150 --> 00:54:58.829 better than anybody. 1094 00:54:58.909 --> 00:55:01.230 But do they have the experience to use them effectively? 1095 00:55:01.349 --> 00:55:04.030 Does anybody know if they don't? If they get good results, 1096 00:55:04.090 --> 00:55:04.769 how does it matter? 1097 00:55:05.010 --> 00:55:08.900 Who are they replacing exactly? Because they're not replacing anybody. 1098 00:55:09.179 --> 00:55:09.360 Yeah. 1099 00:55:09.480 --> 00:55:09.739 Okay. 1100 00:55:10.400 --> 00:55:13.500 Well, anyway, so I just wanted to throw that out 1101 00:55:13.539 --> 00:55:16.960 there that, you know, if you're thinking about a career, 1102 00:55:17.300 --> 00:55:20.989 young people, consider the trades, the trade school. You don't 1103 00:55:21.010 --> 00:55:23.659 need a degree. And sometimes you can make even more 1104 00:55:23.719 --> 00:55:26.539 than a couple hundred grand a year if you get 1105 00:55:26.579 --> 00:55:27.380 into the right job. 1106 00:55:27.599 --> 00:55:30.960 Well, the way I think about this, because I'm kind 1107 00:55:30.980 --> 00:55:34.320 of exposed to that world a lot. I took shop 1108 00:55:34.659 --> 00:55:37.219 when I was in junior high school. Took two years 1109 00:55:37.280 --> 00:55:40.050 of it. Partially because I'm kind of a generalist and 1110 00:55:40.090 --> 00:55:42.070 I want to be able to kind of understand all 1111 00:55:42.110 --> 00:55:45.889 the things. But I also come from a background. My brother, 1112 00:55:46.539 --> 00:55:50.099 is head of HVAC installation and support for one of 1113 00:55:50.119 --> 00:55:54.320 the local companies. And he has no college. He just 1114 00:55:54.400 --> 00:55:58.219 graduated from high school. But him and those people that 1115 00:55:58.260 --> 00:56:00.570 I know, the way I kind of describe it is 1116 00:56:01.309 --> 00:56:04.550 they live in a world of things. We live, for 1117 00:56:04.570 --> 00:56:07.869 the most part, developers, media, live in a world of 1118 00:56:08.110 --> 00:56:12.889 words and symbols and code. And people that live in 1119 00:56:12.949 --> 00:56:16.010 that world love AI. And people that live in the 1120 00:56:16.050 --> 00:56:21.769 world of things, it doesn't really resonate with them. I 1121 00:56:22.570 --> 00:56:25.070 think it will in some ways. I mean, I can 1122 00:56:25.110 --> 00:56:28.500 certainly imagine an AI that you take a picture of 1123 00:56:28.539 --> 00:56:32.300 this part of an HVAC system to get the exact 1124 00:56:32.360 --> 00:56:37.500 model number of whatever. There are certainly going to be 1125 00:56:37.559 --> 00:56:41.179 places where you develop pieces of that use the capabilities 1126 00:56:41.219 --> 00:56:44.429 of AI to help those guys do their job. Absolutely. 1127 00:56:44.469 --> 00:56:46.269 But at the end of the day, they're going to 1128 00:56:46.289 --> 00:56:48.929 be putting a hand on a thing and taking it 1129 00:56:49.050 --> 00:56:52.550 off and putting another thing on. And that's, I think 1130 00:56:52.590 --> 00:56:54.590 there's a fundamental difference in the way people look at 1131 00:56:54.610 --> 00:56:55.050 the world. 1132 00:56:55.199 --> 00:56:57.679 Before I started an exercise routine, I took a picture 1133 00:56:57.719 --> 00:56:59.760 of every machine in the gym and uploaded it to 1134 00:56:59.780 --> 00:57:03.139 chat GPT and said, make me a PDF of what 1135 00:57:03.199 --> 00:57:08.199 this machine does and how to use it with the pictures. So, 1136 00:57:08.360 -->

00:57:10.380 cause they, I asked them at the desk, they're like, no, 1137 00:57:10.420 --> 00:57:13.320 we don't have any kind of documentation or whatever. You 1138 00:57:13.340 --> 00:57:15.239 get what you get. Like you're expected to know how 1139 00:57:15.260 --> 00:57:16.000 to use these things. 1140 00:57:16.039 --> 00:57:17.360 But at the end of the day, you got to 1141 00:57:17.380 --> 00:57:19.219 get on the machine and start pushing some weights. 1142 00:57:19.320 --> 00:57:19.880 Of course. 1143 00:57:19.980 --> 00:57:23.969 Yeah. So, and that's, if you don't have that mindset 1144 00:57:23.989 --> 00:57:26.050 going in, it doesn't matter how much information you've got 1145 00:57:26.110 --> 00:57:27.050 on what the machines do. 1146 00:57:27.110 --> 00:57:27.369 Yeah. 1147 00:57:27.409 --> 00:57:29.309 Right. And so people that live in that world of 1148 00:57:29.369 --> 00:57:32.590 things that, that, that things are tangible for them. It, 1149 00:57:34.440 --> 00:57:36.000 At the end of the day, you work on the 1150 00:57:36.059 --> 00:57:38.559 air conditioner. It either blows cold air or it doesn't. 1151 00:57:38.699 --> 00:57:41.800 And no amount of words to the person that's living 1152 00:57:41.820 --> 00:57:44.199 in that house is going to change the fact that 1153 00:57:44.239 --> 00:57:46.530 you failed to repair their air conditioner. 1154 00:57:47.010 --> 00:57:49.550 Guys, do you really want to end a software development 1155 00:57:49.570 --> 00:57:51.449 show on a, hey, you should have entered the trades? 1156 00:57:51.769 --> 00:57:51.829 No. 1157 00:57:52.429 --> 00:57:53.570 Because I don't think you think that. 1158 00:57:53.690 --> 00:57:56.190 I just had to make that point. 1159 00:57:56.449 --> 00:57:56.650 Yeah. 1160 00:57:56.750 --> 00:57:59.309 Because, you know, people are afraid of their jobs and stuff. 1161 00:57:59.369 --> 00:58:01.929 And I'm going into high schools a few times a 1162 00:58:01.969 --> 00:58:04.449 year and I talk about careers. And I always mention 1163 00:58:04.590 --> 00:58:07.929 the trades for exactly that reason. Like, don't believe the hype. 1164 00:58:07.989 --> 00:58:08.170 No. 1165 00:58:08.190 --> 00:58:10.010 Because the four-year programs are so broken. 1166 00:58:10.929 --> 00:58:14.010 I know people who gave up on software development in 1167 00:58:14.030 --> 00:58:14.559 their 40s. 1168 00:58:14.739 --> 00:58:14.920 Sure. 1169 00:58:15.199 --> 00:58:20.510 And went and did trades-based hands-on stuff because they... They 1170 00:58:20.530 --> 00:58:22.449 got burned out of all the constant changes. 1171 00:58:24.369 --> 00:58:27.050 If you don't like that, you're having a tough time. 1172 00:58:27.070 --> 00:58:28.550 I think the people that are having the toughest time 1173 00:58:28.690 --> 00:58:31.329 in this current wave are the folks that jumped on 1174 00:58:31.369 --> 00:58:35.739 a stack like. NET 10, 15 years ago and been 1175 00:58:35.780 --> 00:58:38.719 able to

live in that stack alone the whole time. 1176 00:58:39.599 --> 00:58:41.119 Now we're being disrupted in a way they've never been 1177 00:58:41.139 --> 00:58:46.050 disrupted before. We're older. We were disrupted by. NET and 1178 00:58:46.110 --> 00:58:48.380 jumped into it. So the fact that we're being disrupted again, 1179 00:58:48.400 --> 00:58:52.099 not as big a deal because we're used to being disrupted. 1180 00:58:52.340 --> 00:58:56.619 Yeah. Yeah. It's one of the metaphors that I tend 1181 00:58:56.639 --> 00:58:59.059 to use. It's probably a good thing to kind of 1182 00:58:59.380 --> 00:59:01.219 end up on since I know we're getting close to 1183 00:59:01.260 --> 00:59:04.829 the end of the time. Our entire industry has always 1184 00:59:04.849 --> 00:59:09.929 been about change. But there's different degrees of change. 1185 00:59:10.429 --> 00:59:10.630 Sure. 1186 00:59:11.030 --> 00:59:15.170 Normal change in our industry is like, I compare it 1187 00:59:15.230 --> 00:59:19.789 to waking up one day and your spouse has been 1188 00:59:19.829 --> 00:59:22.550 replaced by a different person. Right. Yeah. And you just 1189 00:59:22.590 --> 00:59:24.739 have to get to learn to love the new spouse 1190 00:59:26.539 --> 00:59:29.739 and learn their foibles. But you do it and you 1191 00:59:29.780 --> 00:59:33.239 adapt and you go on. And then every once in 1192 00:59:33.260 --> 00:59:37.789 a while, every 10, 15, 20 years, We get a 1193 00:59:37.809 --> 00:59:40.500 change that's more like you wake up one day and 1194 00:59:40.539 --> 00:59:42.539 you're married to a reptilian alien. 1195 00:59:42.840 --> 00:59:44.579 Yeah, I've heard that before. 1196 00:59:44.619 --> 00:59:47.739 You're not even sure what species it is. And AI 1197 00:59:47.780 --> 00:59:49.369 is one of those changes. And we went through one 1198 00:59:49.389 --> 00:59:53.070 of those changes in the 90s where everything changed at once, 1199 00:59:53.489 --> 00:59:57.840 where you went to GUIs, event-driven architectures, relational databases, and 1200 00:59:58.329 --> 01:00:00.750 And all of the things that the people that were 1201 01:00:00.809 --> 01:00:02.130 coming into that world. Right. 1202 01:00:02.269 --> 01:00:03.550 And then got slammed with the internet. 1203 01:00:03.639 --> 01:00:05.300 And some of them couldn't do that. 1204 01:00:05.340 --> 01:00:06.539 Yeah. Right after that. 1205 01:00:06.599 --> 01:00:09.300 And then the internet hit just as that was just 1206 01:00:09.320 --> 01:00:13.170 getting established. So that was the 90s was that reptilian 1207 01:00:13.250 --> 01:00:15.010 alien change. And we're in it again. 1208 01:00:15.250 --> 01:00:18.130 I just like to compare it to the ship for Agile, where, no, 1209 01:00:18.170 --> 01:00:21.139 the way you're thinking is incorrect about how you're building software. 1210 01:00:21.179 --> 01:00:23.139 You can tell about these shifts by looking at the 1211 01:00:23.179 --> 01:00:25.619 history of. NET Rocks and finding the threads that go 1212 01:00:25.639 --> 01:00:29.159 through different eras and different periods. We're always talking about 1213 01:00:29.239 --> 01:00:30.619 Agile there for a while, right? 1214 01:00:30.980 --> 01:00:33.159 And then it just became software development. Right. 1215 01:00:34.019 --> 01:00:34.159 Yeah. 1216 01:00:34.840 --> 01:00:37.440 Billy, it's been such a delight having you back on 1217 01:00:37.460 --> 01:00:39.760 the show and talking to you and seeing you in person. 1218 01:00:39.840 --> 01:00:41.460 It's been great. 1219 01:00:41.699 --> 01:00:43.900 I've loved it as I always do because, I mean, 1220 01:00:43.920 --> 01:00:45.800 I walk around the house ranting about stuff all the 1221 01:00:45.820 --> 01:00:46.460 time to myself. 1222 01:00:46.780 --> 01:00:48.440 It's good to rant with us then. 1223 01:00:48.500 --> 01:00:51.380 It's having a public venue in which to get some 1224 01:00:51.420 --> 01:00:54.059 of these rants out into the wider world is a pleasure. 1225 01:00:54.079 --> 01:00:56.949 Well, when I go out into the wider world, I 1226 01:00:57.170 --> 01:01:00.230 often have those rants of yours in my head when 1227 01:01:00.269 --> 01:01:01.650 I see dumb UX. 1228 01:01:01.889 --> 01:01:02.130 Nice. 1229 01:01:02.670 --> 01:01:07.960 Elevator buttons, you know. towel dispensers over the toilet. 1230 01:01:09.860 --> 01:01:11.679 I used to be perfectly happy with the ways the 1231 01:01:11.699 --> 01:01:13.400 world was laid out. Then Billy told me how it 1232 01:01:13.440 --> 01:01:16.000 was all wrong. All the time. 1233 01:01:16.239 --> 01:01:17.800 Well, it's not so much that it was all wrong, 1234 01:01:17.840 --> 01:01:22.360 but it could be a lot better. And, and, People 1235 01:01:22.380 --> 01:01:26.340 that sort of think everything is just good enough. No, 1236 01:01:26.380 --> 01:01:27.889 I've never been like that. I've always wanted the world 1237 01:01:27.909 --> 01:01:28.320 to get better. 1238 01:01:28.639 --> 01:01:28.969 Awesome. 1239 01:01:29.130 --> 01:01:31.309 Well, I'm going to call the show Arguing About AI. 1240 01:01:31.570 --> 01:01:31.809 Okay. 1241 01:01:31.869 --> 01:01:32.070 Good. 1242 01:01:32.309 --> 01:01:32.869 That sounds good. 1243 01:01:32.909 --> 01:01:34.090 Because I think that's the right name. 1244 01:01:34.150 --> 01:01:35.949 All sides were represented. 1245 01:01:35.969 --> 01:01:39.150 I don't know if that's true, but we all made 1246 01:01:39.170 --> 01:01:40.150 some noises anyway. 1247 01:01:40.190 --> 01:01:42.110 All right, Billy. Thank you very much. And we'll talk 1248 01:01:42.130 --> 01:01:44.210 to you again. And we'll talk to you, dear listener, 1249 01:01:44.250 --> 01:01:44.940 next time on. 1250 01:01:45.190 --> 01:01:46.010 NET Rocks. 1251 01:02:06.960 --> 01:02:09.679 NET Rocks is brought to you by Franklin's Net and 1252 01:02:09.719 --> 01:02:14.440 produced by Plop Studios, a full-service audio, video, and post-production 1253 01:02:14.500 --> 01:02:18.480 facility located physically in New London, Connecticut, and, of course, 1254 01:02:18.539 --> 01:02:22.139 in the cloud, online at pwop.com. 1255 01:02:22.889 --> 01:02:30.789 Visit our website at dotnetrocks.com for RSS feeds, downloads, mobile apps, comments, 1256 01:02:31.210 --> 01:02:33.690 and access to the full archives going back to show 1257 01:02:33.730 --> 01:02:36.460 number one, recorded in September 2002. 1258 01:02:36.460 --> 01:02:39.760 And make sure you check out our sponsors. They keep 1259 01:02:39.840 --> 01:02:40.480 us in business. 1260 01:02:41.079 --> 01:02:43.460 Now go write some code. See you next time.