Transkrip lengkap untuk Todd Buchholz

00:05:39.360 --> 00:05:44.800 And people do not feel as if their standard of living has risen. 00:05:44.800 --> 00:05:50.399 And Trump is the president, so therefore he has to take a significant part of the blame. 00:05:50.399 --> 00:05:53.680 Now we could break apart each of those one by one. 00:05:53.680 --> 00:05:57.759 If there weren't a war in Iran, the price of energy would be quite cheap. 00:05:57.759 --> 00:05:58.800 It had fallen. 00:05:58.800 --> 00:06:07.519 Trump's policies of drill, drill, drill, whether you one opposes on environmental grounds or is in favor of it on economic grounds. 00:06:07.519 --> 00:06:09.759 It was pushing energy prices lower. 00:06:09.759 --> 00:06:14.399 And then we've gotten mired into a war with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. 00:06:14.399 --> 00:06:16.959 And that has made the cost of living more expensive. 00:06:16.959 --> 00:06:21.519 And the American people are not very forgiving about that sort of thing. 00:06:21.519 --> 00:06:26.560 At the same time, interest rates are higher, which makes it more expensive to buy a house. 00:06:26.560 --> 00:06:30.079 And this these two factors are the same all over the world. 00:06:30.079 --> 00:06:34.720 Interest rates are higher around the world, and energy prices are higher around the world. 00:06:34.720 --> 00:06:40.000 And so President Biden, in my book, had been a miserable president. 00:06:40.000 --> 00:06:40.959 He was hardly there. 00:06:40.959 --> 00:06:48.959 I mean, he was might as well have had Madame Tussaud's wax works do a Biden statue and put it in the Oval Office. 00:06:48.959 --> 00:06:49.920 But he's gone. 00:06:49.920 --> 00:06:52.000 So it's can't blame him anymore. 00:06:52.000 --> 00:06:56.000 So Donald Trump is bearing the brunt of this. 00:06:56.000 --> 00:06:58.800 How bad will the elections be? 00:06:58.800 --> 00:07:04.480 Well, the Republican majority is narrow to begin with. 00:07:04.480 --> 00:07:13.519 Republicans only have an advantage of basically three or four seats in both the Senate, our upper house, and the House of Representatives, our lower house. 00:07:13.519 --> 00:07:19.680 And in the House of Representatives, that's an advantage of three when you're talking about a total of 435 seats. 00:07:19.680 --> 00:07:24.000 So it was just a sliver of a majority that he had. 00:07:24.000 --> 00:07:27.040 And now it's most likely that he'd lose that. 00:07:27.040 --> 00:07:35.439 But that's not the same as a vote on whether Democrats should now take over the government. 00:07:35.439 --> 00:07:43.199 So if the American people had to vote now, as it would be more in a parliamentary regime, do you want the Tories or do you want labor? 00:07:43.199 --> 00:07:49.600 It's unclear to me that the American people would say, oh, we want labor back in, or in this case, we want the Democrats back in. 00:07:49.600 --> 00:07:58.240 Here it's a matter of we we want to punish or express our disappointment in certain parts of the economy. 00:07:58.480

--> 00:08:00.959 That also absolutely fascinates me. 00:08:00.959 --> 00:08:11.199 Because so much of the coverage over here is about Trump as an individual. 00:08:11.199 --> 00:08:13.680 It's about the executive orders. 00:08:13.680 --> 00:08:32.559 It's about renaming AI SI, it's about the triumphal arch or the West Wing or a number of things which we don't take as the truth or reality. 00:08:32.559 --> 00:08:51.679 We hear about economic policy, we hear about the cost at the pumps, but most of us on this side of the water, I suspect, spend more time worrying about his creeping authoritarianism than we do about the cost to the American cost of living. 00:08:52.080 --> 00:09:01.679 But Jeremy, I would I would say that you can call it creeping authoritarianism, but the creeping won't go on for law because he is, as we call it, a lame duck. 00:09:01.679 --> 00:09:02.639 He can't run again. 00:09:02.639 --> 00:09:06.159 He's not going to be able to change the constitution to be president. 00:09:06.159 --> 00:09:07.919 He's about 80 years old. 00:09:07.919 --> 00:09:10.159 So he's going to be in the rearview mirror. 00:09:10.159 --> 00:09:33.200 In fact, as soon as the elections are over in the first week of November, Republicans will be airlifting themselves, hitchhiking, driving, hopping on trucks or rail cars to get to Iowa, the state of Iowa, which has the first caucus, the first sort of pseudo-election within the party to decide who's going to take Trump's place. 00:09:33.200 --> 00:09:35.279 So he is going to be fading. 00:09:35.279 --> 00:09:43.679 Now he doesn't want to fade, which is why he wants his name slapped across the Kennedy Center and every other mark that he can put up. 00:09:43.679 --> 00:09:55.759 But I think that what you are describing, the Trump personality expressing itself in ways that seem certainly unprecedented and in some cases outrageous. 00:09:55.759 --> 00:10:00.480 For the American people, that's more like reality TV entertainment. 00:10:00.480 --> 00:10:03.919 It's not actually what's driving their votes. 00:10:03.919 --> 00:10:12.720 And when the American people look at both parties, they see either party has a prescription to attend to go to an insane asylum. 00:10:12.720 --> 00:10:14.720 You can cite the various things Trump has done. 00:10:14.720 --> 00:10:18.879 Oh, Gulf of Mexico is now the Gulf of America, and so on and so forth. 00:10:18.879 --> 00:10:35.440 But then you go back to the Democratic Party, and this is a party where scientists, doctors, Supreme Court justices will testify before Congress and claim they don't know the difference between a man and a woman. 00:10:35.440 --> 00:10:48.080 Because they've been so co-opted by what is politically current that they take their logical brains and their knowledge and they put it in a lockbox somewhere because they don't want to offend. 00:10:48.080 --> 00:10:50.720 So there's craziness in both parties. 00:10:50.720 --> 00:10:57.440 Trump's craziness might

be a little bit more entertaining, maybe a little bit more scary if you're concerned that he could stay in power. 00:10:57.440 --> 00:11:01.200 But I do not believe that's what the American people are voting on. 00:11:01.200 --> 00:11:03.039 They're voting with their pockets. 00:11:03.039 --> 00:11:21.200 You know, remember Ronald Reagan was obviously a controversial figure, but in 1984, when he ran for re-election, he was able to display advertisements with American flags being raised in parks around the country, and the slogan was it's morning in America. 00:11:21.200 --> 00:11:26.799 And he didn't mean morning with a U, M-O-U-R-N-I-N-G, but it was morning. 00:11:26.799 --> 00:11:29.279 It was break of day, it was a new day. 00:11:29.279 --> 00:11:38.639 Well, in the midst of a war and uh higher prices, it's hard for that kind of message to be said. 00:11:38.639 --> 00:11:41.440 So Republicans will be losing seats, most likely. 00:11:41.919 --> 00:11:49.679 That makes complete sense, but would make more sense if the war were outside of Donald Trump's control. 00:11:49.679 --> 00:11:53.600 That's one of the things that pushes it over the edge for me. 00:11:53.600 --> 00:12:00.799 Because it was his decision to go in in the way that he did, and indeed, as of now to stay in. 00:12:00.799 --> 00:12:07.120 But I am interested, as will lots of listeners be, once Trump has gone. 00:12:07.120 --> 00:12:08.799 The question is simple. 00:12:08.799 --> 00:12:14.879 What will be left of what we used to call the New World Order? 00:12:14.879 --> 00:12:17.120 Has it changed forever? 00:12:17.840 --> 00:12:20.080 I don't think it's changed forever. 00:12:20.080 --> 00:12:23.840 And of course, I think it depends who comes to power after Trump. 00:12:23.840 --> 00:12:33.919 You look at the Trump White House and the administration, and right now it would seem to be the two leading candidates are the vice president, J.D. 00:12:33.919 --> 00:12:37.039 Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 00:12:37.039 --> 00:12:44.559 And I think those are very different characters, both having served in the Senate previously, Rubio for a much longer time. 00:12:44.559 --> 00:12:56.480 And Rubio, I believe, is an inter more of an internationalist, though he is someone who believes in what we call or what the world calls American exceptionalism. 00:12:56.480 --> 00:12:59.360 And why shouldn't he think America is exceptional? 00:12:59.360 --> 00:13:07.039 His family fled Cuba and came to the States, and then he became a congressman and then a senator and a secretary of state. 00:13:07.039 --> 00:13:10.320 There aren't too many countries in the world where that would have been possible. 00:13:10.320 --> 00:13:16.720 So he believes in that, but I don't see him on foreign policy in the same category as J.D. 00:13:16.720 --> 00:13:18.000 Vance, because it was J.D. 00:13:18.000 --> 00:13:24.159 Vance who sat Zelensky down on a sofa in the Oval Office and shouted him down. 00:13:24.159 --> 00:13:25.519 It was J.D. 00:13:25.519 --> 00:13:31.840 Vance who claimed he had a deal with the Iranians as if they could be trusted in these negotiations. 00:13:31.840 --> 00:13:34.960 And those who doubted him, he criticized. 00:13:34.960 --> 00:13:36.480 So I think if you have a J.D. 00:13:36.480 --> 00:13:41.679 Vance presidency, that does seem to be closer to a continuation of Trump. 00:13:41.679 --> 00:13:46.720 Marco Rubio, I think, would not necessarily be a continuation of Trump's policies. 00:13:46.720 --> 00:13:48.720 Having said that, there's an asterisk. 00:13:48.720 --> 00:13:49.279 J.D. 00:13:49.279 --> 00:13:54.559 Vance doesn't have a long history, and he's been on different sides of the equation. 00:13:54.559 --> 00:14:09.679 Your listeners can Google within a moment and find various quotations where he not just criticizes Trump prior to his appointment as vice president or election as vice president, but indeed is lacerating of Trump. 00:14:09.679 --> 00:14:12.720 So JD Vance is unpredictable. 00:14:12.720 --> 00:14:21.600 Some people would say he's opportunistic, but I think the world would be comforted by a Marco Rubio presidency. 00:14:21.919 --> 00:14:22.159 Yeah. 00:14:22.159 --> 00:14:24.799 You mentioned in passing, you mentioned Cuba. 00:14:24.799 --> 00:14:28.960 Before he goes, is Trump gonna um take over Cuba? 00:14:28.960 --> 00:14:31.840 I was looking for a euphemism, but I couldn't find one. 00:14:32.159 --> 00:14:44.240 You know, the remarkable thing about Trump, and when I give speeches to business audiences, I say, here's what you need to know about Donald Trump's mind. 00:14:44.240 --> 00:14:47.360 He is the mind of my grandfather. 00:14:47.360 --> 00:15:02.639 My grandpa Sam was a developer, and he actually knew and was sort of a colleague and sometimes friend of Fred Trump, Donald Trump's father, because they both were building homes along the eastern seaboard between World War II and the 1970s. 00:15:02.639 --> 00:15:09.039 And one of the titles that the president of the United States has is commander in chief. 00:15:09.039 --> 00:15:15.120 I think we would be wise to think of him as developer-in-chief. 00:15:15.120 --> 00:15:18.240 What does it mean to be a developer-in-chief? 00:15:18.240 --> 00:15:22.480 A developer doesn't care so much about the old, the past. 00:15:22.480 --> 00:15:24.000 He wants new. 00:15:24.000 --> 00:15:30.320 He wants to build again and tear down and not shed a tear when he tears down. 00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:35.440 In fact, there was a 1980s story in the New York Times about Donald Trump. 00:15:35.440 --> 00:15:38.960 This was before he became famous, so his name was not in the headline. 00:15:38.960 --> 00:15:46.000 But when he built Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue, he tore down the Bonwood Teller building, which was a department store. 00:15:46.000 --> 00:15:54.159 Well, at the top or on the facade of that building, were certain statues that the Metropolitan Museum

of Art had wanted. 00:15:54.159 --> 00:16:02.240 But they were just torn down and pummeled into smithereens the way the rest of the building was, so there could be a new building. 00:16:02.240 --> 00:16:10.159 That tabula rasa, to use the Latin phrase, blank slate mentality, shows up in the Trump presidency. 00:16:10.159 --> 00:16:19.679 That's why, Jeremy, he can wake up in the morning and say, Gulf of Mexico, no, Gulf of America, Canada, 51st state, Greenland, 52nd state. 00:16:19.679 --> 00:16:20.639 Why not? 00:16:20.639 --> 00:16:25.039 So he has that freedom of thought. 00:16:25.039 --> 00:16:30.240 Some people might say no respect and a disdain for history. 00:16:30.240 --> 00:16:34.879 Yeah, and it's not a very conservative way to be. 00:16:34.879 --> 00:16:37.519 But it isn't, I guess, freeing. 00:16:37.519 --> 00:16:42.159 I guess, you know, I'd feel pretty free if I didn't feel I had to preserve anything in my life. 00:16:42.159 --> 00:16:45.039 But that's the Donald Trump mentality. 00:16:45.039 --> 00:16:49.440 And that's the best way to think of his daring. 00:16:49.440 --> 00:16:53.120 It's not simply he wants to do something daring like take over Cuba. 00:16:53.120 --> 00:16:59.440 It's that he doesn't care that Fidel Castro's regime had been there since 1959. 00:16:59.919 --> 00:17:02.720 That's such wonderful insight, Todd. 00:17:02.720 --> 00:17:03.440 It really is. 00:17:03.440 --> 00:17:04.400 That's so clear. 00:17:04.400 --> 00:17:06.559 Just tell me quickly before we move on. 00:17:06.559 --> 00:17:08.720 Have you spent time with Trump? 00:17:09.119 --> 00:17:10.880 I have, but not intensely. 00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:14.559 And not, you know, I certainly do not consider myself an advisor. 00:17:14.559 --> 00:17:16.799 I've met him, I've been in rooms with him. 00:17:16.799 --> 00:17:22.559 I've spoken a little bit, but I don't want to give the impression that I've I've been whispering in his ear. 00:17:22.559 --> 00:17:25.680 In fact, at this moment, let me just correct one thing in your introduction. 00:17:25.680 --> 00:17:30.799 I was director of economic policy for the first Bush for George Herbert Walker Bush. 00:17:30.799 --> 00:17:31.359 Aha. 00:17:31.359 --> 00:17:32.240 Or W. 00:17:32.240 --> 00:17:37.839 Bush, I was an outside advisor, but not within the gates. 00:17:38.240 --> 00:17:38.640 Thank you. 00:17:38.640 --> 00:17:40.079 That makes a great deal of sense. 00:17:40.079 --> 00:17:42.799 When I was looking at that before, I was thinking of the dates. 00:17:42.799 --> 00:17:48.160 I Jeremy, you're supposed to follow that up by saying, but Todd you look too youthful to have been at the end. 00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:49.119 Okay, we'll do that again. 00:17:49.119 --> 00:17:49.759 We'll do that again. 00:17:49.759 --> 00:17:54.480 Oh, so you were director of economic policy for George H. 00:17:54.480 --> 00:18:00.799 Todd, I don't see that that's possible because you are too young looking for that to be true. 00:18:00.799 --> 00:18:02.079 Okay, we've done that now. 00:18:02.079 --> 00:18:02.799 We can move on. 00:18:02.799 --> 00:18:06.799 Now, this book of yours, we're getting on to talk about some economic stuff. 00:18:06.799 --> 00:18:15.039 I read and wrote down the blurb about your book, The Price of Prosperity. 00:18:15.039 --> 00:18:19.039 And I want to read it out very quickly because I think it's fascinating. 00:18:19.039 --> 00:18:24.480 Without common purpose and shared identity, nations can collapse. 00:18:24.480 --> 00:18:28.799 Reckless financial markets encourage gambling. 00:18:28.799 --> 00:18:36.799 A coddling culture removes the stigma of educational underachievement. 00:18:36.799 --> 00:18:42.160 Newcomers are watched with suspicion and contempt. 00:18:42.160 --> 00:18:48.319 That is an absolutely fascinating snapshot. 00:18:48.319 --> 00:18:53.599 You wrote that in the 2010s, I believe, although I think you've probably updated it since. 00:18:53.599 --> 00:19:02.240 But that background fascinates me because in some ways we can see the mirror image over here. 00:19:02.240 --> 00:19:14.480 You certainly can in London, which, as we all know, and you know London well, I guess, it's a global city, so it's not surprising that you'd see similar things if you look out of the window. 00:19:14.480 --> 00:19:16.400 What's your conclusion then? 00:19:16.400 --> 00:19:19.039 What is your what do you call it? 00:19:19.039 --> 00:19:22.480 Where rich nations fail and how to renew them. 00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:26.559 So where do we go from there to wherever we're going next? 00:19:26.559 --> 00:19:30.400 Because I think you'd agree that wherever it is, we ain't there yet. 00:19:30.960 --> 00:19:35.119 I think we've learned that nations are fragile things. 00:19:35.119 --> 00:19:37.920 Nations are fragile things. 00:19:37.920 --> 00:19:43.279 The US national anthem, the Star Spangled Banner, ends with a question. 00:19:43.279 --> 00:19:51.440 Oh, say does that star-spangled banner still wave over the land of the free and the home of the brave? 00:19:51.440 --> 00:19:53.359 There's a question mark. 00:19:53.359 --> 00:20:06.319 Because the writer Francis Scott Key penned that during the War of 1812, and there was bombing going on in Baltimore, and the nation had only been declared independent in 1776. 00:20:06.319 --> 00:20:08.799 So it hadn't been around very long. 00:20:08.799 --> 00:20:14.880 And at that point, there'd been various young nations that had been throttled in their youth. 00:20:14.880 --> 00:20:20.160 There was a Republic of Genoa and you know various others that just simply didn't make it. 00:20:20.160 --> 00:20:30.400 And you look at the history of regimes, countries, nations that had seemed strong and they didn't make it. 00:20:30.400 --> 00:20:35.759 My wife's grandmother passed away at a hundred and five and a half recently. 00:20:35.759 --> 00:20:39.039 Of course, when you get to 105, you count those halves, right? 00:20:39.039

--> 00:20:44.880 When she was born, there was a Habsburg Empire. 00:20:44.880 --> 00:20:47.519 There was an Ottoman Empire. 00:20:47.519 --> 00:20:54.720 And the Habsburg Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire controlled a half of Europe and it's gone. 00:20:54.720 --> 00:20:57.279 The Ottoman Empire, I've never met an Ottoman. 00:20:57.279 --> 00:21:02.240 I've never met an Ottoman. 00:21:02.240 --> 00:21:07.920 But the Ottoman Empire controlled all of the Middle East and parts of Africa, and they're gone. 00:21:07.920 --> 00:21:09.440 And why? 00:21:09.440 --> 00:21:20.960 Because they frayed, the stitching was ripped apart, there was not enough centrifugal force or commonality to keep things together. 00:21:20.960 --> 00:21:35.039 And when you look at modern economies, whether it's the UK or the US or France and Germany and others, and you see that in order to prosper, you have to engage in international trade, and that's a good thing. 00:21:35.039 --> 00:21:45.839 But if you don't have some kind of common principles, if you don't believe in a common history, then the country has no reason to stay together. 00:21:45.839 --> 00:21:48.720 And that's why those empires fell. 00:21:48.720 --> 00:21:49.920 And I worry about that. 00:21:49.920 --> 00:21:52.240 I worry deeply, especially in the UK. 00:21:52.240 --> 00:21:55.680 I've spent a lot of time in London and in the UK. 00:21:55.680 --> 00:22:03.519 And when we were rehearsing our musical Glory Ride, we were rehearsing a Bishopsgate, you know, near Liverpool Liverpool Station. 00:22:03.519 --> 00:22:08.240 And I remember when we had to get some scripts copied again. 00:22:08.240 --> 00:22:14.240 It must have been on a Sunday, or the conventional copy companies printers were not open. 00:22:14.240 --> 00:22:19.759 So I ended up basically jogging east of Liverpool Station. 00:22:19.759 --> 00:22:24.880 And the further I got east, the further I felt, oh, I was very east. 00:22:24.880 --> 00:22:30.240 I felt I was in Afghanistan, not in London. 00:22:30.240 --> 00:22:34.400 And I'm not saying that in a pejorative way. 00:22:34.400 --> 00:22:39.359 I'm just saying if you were to take a snapshot, you would not know you were in London. 00:22:39.359 --> 00:22:40.240 Is that a problem? 00:22:40.240 --> 00:22:41.920 It doesn't have to be a problem. 00:22:41.920 --> 00:23:06.559 If I speak to people in that neighborhood and they tell me they care about Gladstone, they know about Winston Churchill, they have some idea of the Second World War and the sacrifices that were made and the principles of the Magna Carta, and they want Britain to survive and prevail. 00:23:06.559 --> 00:23:09.759 Then I don't care if all the signs are in languages I can't read. 00:23:09.759 --> 00:23:15.440 Churchill said if the British Empire lasts for another thousand years, they will say this is our finest hour. 00:23:15.440 --> 00:23:27.519 You have to ask how many of residents in London or within the UK really care whether the empire

lasts another thousand years. 00:23:27.519 --> 00:23:31.200 If we get the empire, whether the city or the country does. 00:23:31.680 --> 00:23:41.920 I think it's a fair question, but I also think that your observation is the geography is very interesting. 00:23:41.920 --> 00:23:58.880 Because what you're talking about is finding yourself in parts of the old East End around a place called Shoritch and that kind of area, just east of the city of London. 00:23:58.880 --> 00:24:26.079 And between 100 and 150 years ago, you would have made the same observation, except that rather than seeing people from Bangladesh and possibly Syria and a number of other countries, you'd have found a very large number of Jewish immigrants, including a number of my ancestors, and most of them, talking between themselves, would have spoken in Yiddish. 00:24:26.079 --> 00:24:36.880 It just so happens that that area has continued to be from the days of the Huguenots from France, so 100 years or more before then, my history isn't good. 00:24:36.880 --> 00:24:41.759 It's been a settling point for first-generation immigrants. 00:24:41.759 --> 00:24:45.440 And then when they make a bit of money, they go out east further into the coast. 00:24:45.440 --> 00:24:56.319 By the way, listener, if you haven't already, I commend to you the Just Between Us episode with my own aunt, who is also 105 and a half. 00:24:56.319 --> 00:24:59.279 In fact, coming up to 106, I think, in November. 00:24:59.599 --> 00:25:01.759 Well, I'm glad you interviewed her before me. 00:25:01.759 --> 00:25:03.680 You really have to prioritize these. 00:25:04.160 --> 00:25:05.440 Well, I think that's true. 00:25:05.440 --> 00:25:06.799 I wouldn't argue with that. 00:25:06.799 --> 00:25:19.359 And she talked about how at home everyone around her was talking in Yiddish, but she didn't want to and ran away from Hebrew lessons and blah, blah, blah. 00:25:19.359 --> 00:25:22.559 Which is maybe more of a comment on my aunt than anything else. 00:25:22.559 --> 00:25:23.440 I appreciate that. 00:25:23.440 --> 00:25:25.039 So let's move on to another. 00:25:25.039 --> 00:25:30.880 A coddling culture removes the stigma of educational underachievement. 00:25:31.279 --> 00:25:38.799 We had in this country, the same in the UK, this self-esteem movement for a generation. 00:25:38.799 --> 00:25:44.559 So uh there was a survey done in the uh Washington, D.C. 00:25:44.559 --> 00:25:48.799 school district, and then tests done, objective tests. 00:25:48.799 --> 00:25:51.279 And the students in the Washington, D.C. 00:25:51.279 --> 00:25:57.359 school district graded themselves as very strong in maths. 00:25:57.359 --> 00:26:01.039 But it turned out they were terrible. 00:26:01.039 --> 00:26:17.119 They thought they were great, but they were awful because the teacher spent more time boosting them up, giving them trophies for being so strong that they actually didn't spend much time learning how to add, subtract, multiply, and divide. 00:26:17.119 --> 00:26:30.640 And actually, there was a story just a week or two ago about a woman who writes for the New York Times who wrote a controversial essay that became a movement called the 1619 Project. 00:26:30.640 --> 00:26:34.079 And the point is, she happened to be an African-American. 00:26:34.079 --> 00:26:35.759 She placed her daughter. 00:26:35.759 --> 00:26:39.920 The woman could get her daughter into almost any school she wanted. 00:26:39.920 --> 00:26:46.000 She placed her in a low-performing school, largely African-American population. 00:26:46.000 --> 00:26:50.799 Well, the daughter is now 16 years old and is outraged at her mother. 00:26:50.799 --> 00:26:58.640 And it turns out that this daughter was told that she was very strong in maths. 00:26:58.640 --> 00:27:06.319 And she's now discovered as she's applying university or contemplating university that she is terribly ill-prepared. 00:27:06.319 --> 00:27:11.279 And so that's why, you know, I you had cited the word coddled. 00:27:11.279 --> 00:27:18.559 It doesn't do much good for someone's self-esteem to tell them something that they eventually will discover. 00:27:18.559 --> 00:27:26.720 The best way to get esteem is to do something worthy of esteem and earn it. 00:27:26.720 --> 00:27:32.000 There was an actor and producer who was the producing partner of Orson Wells. 00:27:32.000 --> 00:27:34.160 His name was John Houseman. 00:27:34.160 --> 00:27:38.559 And John Houseman had a kind of pseudo-British accent. 00:27:38.559 --> 00:27:40.079 I think he was born in Romania. 00:27:40.079 --> 00:27:41.440 I think he lived anyway. 00:27:41.440 --> 00:27:44.799 He may have affected a British accent, but it was very persuasive to Americans. 00:27:44.799 --> 00:27:53.839 And he starred in a movie called The Paper Chase, and it was a television series about an authoritarian professor at Harvard Law School. 00:27:53.839 --> 00:28:00.480 And this same actor, John Houseman, was contracted by a financial firm, a brokerage house, called E.F. 00:28:00.480 --> 00:28:01.119 Hutton. 00:28:01.119 --> 00:28:09.599 And the ad campaign was him in his very stentorian tone saying, We make money the old-fashioned way. 00:28:09.599 --> 00:28:11.279 We earn it. 00:28:11.279 --> 00:28:13.599 Well, there is something to that. 00:28:13.599 --> 00:28:28.079 You know, it was kind of haughty and a little obnoxious at the time, but it doesn't do children any good to tell them they're good at something, and then for them to discover with broken hearts that in fact they may have wasted a lot of time pretending. 00:28:28.400 --> 00:28:31.759 I think you and I agree so much on this that we ought to move on. 00:28:31.759 --> 00:28:32.880 Let's talk briefly. 00:28:32.880 --> 00:28:34.160 I know time's sticking away. 00:28:34.160 --> 00:28:44.319 And I know, because a birdie told me that you have a meeting coming up with Stallone's management, which obviously I want to ask you to spill the beans on.

00:28:44.319 --> 00:28:49.839 But before we get to that, let's talk a little bit about the markets and investment and that side of things. 00:28:49.839 --> 00:28:57.119 Because in Price of Prosperity, you also criticize reckless financial markets. 00:28:57.119 --> 00:29:01.680 And I am not in the least bit informed about this. 00:29:01.680 --> 00:29:08.240 But it seems to be that there is this great AI-related boom going on. 00:29:08.240 --> 00:29:17.440 And it seems to be that not all these companies are going to be able to deliver on what they claim to be their promise. 00:29:17.440 --> 00:29:22.480 That it seems to me that the bubble is going to burst at some point. 00:29:22.480 --> 00:29:30.400 True, likely, or not at all likely, it's going to carry on from strength to strength for these reasons. 00:29:30.880 --> 00:29:35.759 Yes, well, sure, it'll carry on strength to strength till it destroys the entire world. 00:29:35.759 --> 00:29:38.799 And it looks like the end of some Bruce Willis movie or something. 00:29:38.799 --> 00:29:41.279 I actually don't think that we're facing the end of the world. 00:29:41.279 --> 00:29:48.400 I think the best analogy is to the beginning of the automobile industry in the early 20th century. 00:29:48.400 --> 00:30:06.799 There were literally thousands of automobile makers, thousands of them around the world, throughout Europe, but through the United States alone, and thousands of auto companies in the early days making cars, not just little bits, not just, oh, the thousands that made ashtrays and brake pads. 00:30:06.799 --> 00:30:09.519 No, there are thousands that made full cars. 00:30:09.519 --> 00:30:13.279 But only three survived. 00:30:13.279 --> 00:30:18.240 That is, for many decades, we talked about the big three: General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler. 00:30:18.240 --> 00:30:20.880 Did that mean the auto industry didn't survive? 00:30:20.880 --> 00:30:26.400 No, the auto industry thrived and became pretty much the biggest industry in the country. 00:30:26.400 --> 00:30:28.960 But thousands and thousands went bankrupt. 00:30:28.960 --> 00:30:33.440 So we look at artificial intelligence and data centers and so on. 00:30:33.440 --> 00:30:39.599 And I think the industry itself and the promise of the industry is enormous. 00:30:39.599 --> 00:30:43.920 But can we figure out in advance who the survivors are? 00:30:43.920 --> 00:30:48.079 I think that's a pretty difficult thing from an investment point of view. 00:30:48.079 --> 00:30:57.839 Having said that, there are certain companies at any particular time that look nearly untouchable and in almost monopoly positions. 00:30:57.839 --> 00:31:04.240 And you look at NVIDIA today, does lead the world in chip intelligence. 00:31:04.240 --> 00:31:07.440 And no one else seems particularly close. 00:31:07.440 --> 00:31:08.799 Will they have that forever? 00:31:08.799 --> 00:31:10.720 Well, I doubt forever. 00:31:10.720 --> 00:31:19.599 There was a time when we all walked around in the 80s with Sony Walkman, and Sony had all the portable audio products. 00:31:19.599 --> 00:31:22.000 And we thought, well, they're the best. 00:31:22.000 --> 00:31:24.240 And then Apple came out with the iPod. 00:31:24.240 --> 00:31:30.319 And I don't, you know, really haven't heard of Sony since, except for flat screen TVs and a few other products. 00:31:30.319 --> 00:31:40.400 So at any snapshot in time, we'll point out certain companies that seem as if maybe they will be eternal. 00:31:40.400 --> 00:31:47.119 But markets are ferocious in finding weaknesses and exploiting them. 00:31:47.119 --> 00:31:56.400 So, bottom line, Jeremy, I think AI is truly a big deal and will continue to be a big deal from an investment point of view. 00:31:56.400 --> 00:32:08.960 I would advise investors who want to be part of that to invest in a broad way and not think they can figure out which specific company is going to be the big winner in the next five to ten years. 00:32:09.279 --> 00:32:14.000 If you had a spare billion, that might not be a hypothetical question for all I know. 00:32:14.000 --> 00:32:17.359 So with your spare billion, where would you put it right now? 00:32:17.680 --> 00:32:20.720 Well, if I had a spare billion, I might buy a baseball. 00:32:20.720 --> 00:32:24.319 No, that you can't even buy, you can't buy a sports club anymore, can you? 00:32:24.319 --> 00:32:26.960 So look, I would take the advice I'm giving. 00:32:26.960 --> 00:32:35.839 I do think that over time, and I'll speak for the U.S., because I have less confidence in the equity markets abroad. 00:32:35.839 --> 00:32:37.039 I think the U.S. 00:32:37.039 --> 00:32:40.960 equity market in the long run will continue to be strong. 00:32:40.960 --> 00:32:46.240 So a broad base of stocks is where a majority should go. 00:32:46.240 --> 00:32:54.319 And then obviously you need some, or if you had a million dollars, a billion dollars, you probably don't really have to have security. 00:32:54.319 --> 00:33:11.440 But I think the same advice I'd give a billionaire, I would give to somebody who has a couple fewer zeros than that, which is 60 or 70 percent of your funds should be placing a bet on innovation continuing. 00:33:11.440 --> 00:33:13.920 And keep an eye on the political process. 00:33:13.920 --> 00:33:22.400 If the US turns into some sort of authoritarian regime, and if tariffs go on forever, then I would shave back that ratio. 00:33:22.720 --> 00:33:23.039 Okay. 00:33:23.039 --> 00:33:24.079 Thank you very much. 00:33:24.079 --> 00:33:28.160 Sorry to be so cheeky as to ask for that advice for nothing. 00:33:28.160 --> 00:33:44.319 Now, I want to go to the most important subject, which is this musical that you have written with your daughter, because you gave it a run in London and in the US as well, but that ain't going to be the last of it. 00:33:44.319 --> 00:33:49.519 My assumption is that you want to see it propping up the West End. 00:33:49.519 -->

00:33:53.920 You want to see it in lights on the West End and on Broadway. 00:33:53.920 --> 00:33:55.440 So, how's it going? 00:33:55.599 --> 00:33:56.799 What stage are you at now? 00:33:56.799 --> 00:33:57.759 Thank you, Jeremy. 00:33:57.759 --> 00:33:58.960 It's going very well. 00:33:58.960 --> 00:34:04.799 We did a an early developmental production at the Charing Cross Theater a few years ago. 00:34:04.799 --> 00:34:06.880 And we were very proud of that production. 00:34:06.880 --> 00:34:18.719 And we decided after that we needed to make the show really cool so that young people and old people would be screaming and crying and laughing. 00:34:18.719 --> 00:34:20.320 And so we worked very hard. 00:34:20.320 --> 00:34:23.280 And I should I should summarize for your listeners what it's about. 00:34:23.280 --> 00:34:24.719 So it's called Glory Ride. 00:34:24.719 --> 00:34:28.719 It's based on a true, amazing story from the Second World War. 00:34:28.719 --> 00:34:34.800 Basically, the film was the most famous athlete in Italy, and that's where it takes place in Florence, Italy. 00:34:34.800 --> 00:34:37.360 And who doesn't want to go to Tuscany for a couple hours? 00:34:37.360 --> 00:34:41.199 The most famous athlete in Italy was a cyclist named Gino Bartoli. 00:34:41.199 --> 00:34:43.360 He won the Tour de France in 1938. 00:34:43.360 --> 00:34:50.880 So then the war comes, and the Cardinal of Florence comes to him, and he's sitting out the war because Mussolini idolizes him. 00:34:50.880 --> 00:34:52.000 He doesn't have to fight. 00:34:52.000 --> 00:34:55.199 The Cardinal of Florence comes to him and says, Gino, you have to help us. 00:34:55.199 --> 00:34:57.199 And Gino says, Well, what are you talking about? 00:34:57.199 --> 00:35:02.719 And the cardinal explains, look, the Nazis are now on the other side of the river in Florence. 00:35:02.719 --> 00:35:08.960 The black shirts are rounding up gypsies, Jews, Slavs, Greeks, and sending them to the camps in Germany. 00:35:08.960 --> 00:35:09.519 You have to help. 00:35:09.519 --> 00:35:12.239 And the cyclist is, What do you want from me? 00:35:12.239 --> 00:35:13.199 I have a bicycle. 00:35:13.199 --> 00:35:14.400 I have a yellow shirt. 00:35:14.400 --> 00:35:15.840 Find somebody with tanks. 00:35:15.840 --> 00:35:17.119 I can't help you. 00:35:17.119 --> 00:35:20.000 And the cardinal says, wait, don't you understand? 00:35:20.000 --> 00:35:27.440 Because of your fame and because of your bicycle, you are the only guy who can get past the fascist checkpoints. 00:35:27.440 --> 00:35:30.000 We've been hiding children all over Tuscany. 00:35:30.000 --> 00:35:35.280 We need you to send those passports and visas so these kids can get out. 00:35:35.280 --> 00:35:36.880 So he embarks on this mission. 00:35:36.880 --> 00:35:43.039 It's kind of a, we've turned it into a heist, an accountant, a cardinal of the Catholic Church, and a cyclist. 00:35:43.039 --> 00:35:48.800 Fool the fascists and get hundreds

out of fascist Italy before they're going to be murdered. 00:35:48.800 --> 00:35:49.760 True story. 00:35:49.760 --> 00:35:53.519 Then the same cyclist in 1948 wins the Tour de France again. 00:35:53.519 --> 00:35:58.480 10 years after his first victory, oldest guy ever to win, he doesn't tell anybody what he did during the war. 00:35:58.480 --> 00:36:00.159 Then he dies in 2000. 00:36:00.159 --> 00:36:04.159 And some old people say, oh, you know, he saved my life, and no one believes them. 00:36:04.159 --> 00:36:09.599 And then it's only been the last 10 or 15 years it's been divulged, the story we tell in Glory Ride. 00:36:09.599 --> 00:36:14.639 So we took what we did in London a few years ago and we reimagined it. 00:36:14.639 --> 00:36:21.119 And now it's kind of a modern, energetic, more Hamilton-ish telling of the story. 00:36:21.119 --> 00:36:24.559 And we broke the box office records at the Delaware Theater Company. 00:36:24.559 --> 00:36:25.280 And now you're right. 00:36:25.280 --> 00:36:29.360 We are looking for a West End theater and looking to bring it to New York as well. 00:36:29.360 --> 00:36:36.639 So if Andrew Lloyd Weber, if Nika Burns, or if the folks who run ATG are listening, we are ready. 00:36:36.960 --> 00:36:43.679 Well, I used to know Nika very well, but um I have no idea whether she's listening or not, but I'm sure she knows. 00:36:43.679 --> 00:36:47.840 I did a TV pilot with Nika once, which I'll tell you about off-air. 00:36:47.840 --> 00:36:51.920 Not because I'm being secretive, but because it's not that interesting a story. 00:36:51.920 --> 00:36:54.800 Would you and your daughter do a musical about Trump? 00:36:56.880 --> 00:36:59.039 Oh, here's how we're gonna answer that. 00:36:59.039 --> 00:37:03.199 In Glory Ride, it takes place during World War II, as I said. 00:37:03.199 --> 00:37:11.760 When we wrote the first script and did the first kind of rehearsal, we actually had Mussolini as a character. 00:37:11.760 --> 00:37:18.000 And then we decided that it brings too much expectation. 00:37:18.000 --> 00:37:19.840 Oh, does it look like Mussolini? 00:37:19.840 --> 00:37:20.960 How bald is he? 00:37:20.960 --> 00:37:24.960 How does it and it dominates the storytelling itself? 00:37:24.960 --> 00:37:28.960 So Trump, maybe 20 years from now, it could be different. 00:37:28.960 --> 00:37:39.360 But at this point, the question of Trump and mimicry and and so on would be so dominating that I don't think you could get a story that would touch people. 00:37:39.360 --> 00:37:43.039 And that's what you want in a novel, in a musical, in a drama. 00:37:43.039 --> 00:37:47.440 You want people's feelings to be tapped into, and not simply feelings of rage. 00:37:47.440 --> 00:37:49.840 Oh, I hate him, he's such a so-and-so. 00:37:49.840 --> 00:37:51.760 So the answer would be no. 00:37:51.760 --> 00:37:56.480 Better to do a story about someone who is a little bit further into the past. 00:37:56.480 --> 00:37:58.000 I get it completely. 00:37:58.159 --> 00:38:01.360 So, okay, one very last question. 00:38:01.360 --> 00:38:08.239 What I'm not a journalist, but I share the love of scoops. 00:38:08.239 --> 00:38:13.519 What's your next, apart from Glory Ride, what's your next big thing? 00:38:13.920 --> 00:38:19.280 Yeah, look, I'm working on another economics book, but that's in early stages. 00:38:19.280 --> 00:38:25.119 I've also finished a draft of a novel that I'm working on that also takes place during the Second World War. 00:38:25.119 --> 00:38:30.880 So we'll see whether that sees the light of day or just as something on the laptop for years to come. 00:38:31.440 --> 00:38:33.920 Todd, thanks for your time this morning. 00:38:33.920 --> 00:38:36.960 I knew it was gonna be educational. 00:38:36.960 --> 00:38:40.079 It's actually been better than that. 00:38:40.079 --> 00:38:56.159 Because I now feel as though I, and hopefully my listeners have a much, much better steer on what's going on in the States, but also how that relates to the American psyche. 00:38:56.159 --> 00:38:57.920 Todd, thank you very much. 00:38:57.920 --> 00:39:00.320 I hope it's not too long before I see you again. 00:39:00.320 --> 00:39:01.360 Thank you so much. 00:39:01.679 --> 00:39:03.119 Good to be with you, Jeremy. 00:39:03.119 --> 00:39:04.079 Thank you.