KOPYA NG SALIN 🔗
WEBVTT
1
00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:03.759
Or perspective on today's talks and President Trump's handling of Iran.
2
00:00:04.080 --> 00:00:06.759
We get now two views. Alan Air had a four
3
00:00:06.799 --> 00:00:10.000
decade career in US government, including in the Foreign Service,
4
00:00:10.039 --> 00:00:13.199
focusing on Iran. He was part of the Obama administration's
5
00:00:13.279 --> 00:00:16.960
team that negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or
6
00:00:17.039 --> 00:00:20.920
jcpoa agreement with Iran. He's now at the Middle East Institute.
7
00:00:21.120 --> 00:00:24.000
And retired Colonel Joel Raeburn had a twenty six year
8
00:00:24.039 --> 00:00:26.679
career in the Army. During the first Trump administration, he
9
00:00:26.800 --> 00:00:29.760
was on the National Security Council staff, focusing on Iran
10
00:00:29.760 --> 00:00:32.000
in the Middle East. He's now a senior Fellow at
11
00:00:32.039 --> 00:00:34.439
the Hudson Institute. Welcome to you bout, gentlemen, Thanks for
12
00:00:34.479 --> 00:00:37.000
being here. Having Alan, I'll begin with you. Just give
13
00:00:37.079 --> 00:00:39.840
us your assessment of how the talks have gone so far,
14
00:00:39.920 --> 00:00:42.640
and also your assessment of how President Trump has been
15
00:00:42.719 --> 00:00:45.880
handling this approach, dealing with Iran, demanding it gives up
16
00:00:45.880 --> 00:00:49.560
its nuclear program, assembling a massive military force, and threatening
17
00:00:49.560 --> 00:00:50.719
strikes if there's no deal.
18
00:00:51.799 --> 00:00:54.439
I think that again, based on what we heard today,
19
00:00:54.439 --> 00:00:57.240
there has been progress, and I think if there were
20
00:00:57.560 --> 00:01:01.200
enough time given to the process, there could in fact
21
00:01:01.280 --> 00:01:03.799
be a nuclear agreement between Iran the United States. They
22
00:01:03.840 --> 00:01:06.599
made progress, but there's still key red lines. The problem
23
00:01:06.680 --> 00:01:09.319
is you have all that military hardware in the Persian
24
00:01:09.359 --> 00:01:13.079
Gulf and nearby, and you can't keep that there, definitely. So,
25
00:01:14.040 --> 00:01:15.799
I mean, the most salient fact of all of this
26
00:01:15.959 --> 00:01:18.159
is that the red lines for either side have not
27
00:01:18.200 --> 00:01:21.400
really shifted, not just since last year's twelve year war,
28
00:01:21.959 --> 00:01:25.439
but since the beginning of the negotiations between the Trump
29
00:01:25.480 --> 00:01:30.879
administration and the Iranians. So we can reach an agreement,
30
00:01:32.200 --> 00:01:34.599
but it depends on whether we're willing to allow indigenous
31
00:01:34.680 --> 00:01:37.280
enrichment in Iran. In terms of how President Trump is
32
00:01:37.319 --> 00:01:40.640
handling it, it's all a question of whether he wants
33
00:01:40.719 --> 00:01:44.359
to give enough time to the suicide to negotiate to
34
00:01:44.439 --> 00:01:45.920
reach a deal, and that's his decision.
35
00:01:46.439 --> 00:01:47.400
Colonel, how do you see it?
36
00:01:47.599 --> 00:01:50.760
Well, I think what's different this time around is that
37
00:01:51.120 --> 00:01:56.480
the administration it's not just a nuclear issue. Really, if
38
00:01:56.519 --> 00:01:58.280
you listened to the President, if you listen to Secretary
39
00:01:58.280 --> 00:02:01.599
of Rubio in particular, it's the other aspects of the
40
00:02:01.599 --> 00:02:05.959
Iranian regimes, destabilizing and aggressive behavior. It's the ballistic missile
41
00:02:06.319 --> 00:02:10.120
and drone production and proliferation, including for example, into the
42
00:02:10.159 --> 00:02:14.400
Ukraine War through the Russians. It's the support for the
43
00:02:14.479 --> 00:02:17.879
terrorist proxies like Hesbala, Hamas and so on, which in
44
00:02:17.919 --> 00:02:21.400
the Huthis which exploded on October seventh, in October eighth,
45
00:02:21.680 --> 00:02:24.360
So I think what the administration is after right now,
46
00:02:25.080 --> 00:02:28.719
It does seem the Iranian negotiators will always try to
47
00:02:28.840 --> 00:02:34.520
sequestrate down to the narrow issue of nuclear enrichment, leaving
48
00:02:35.000 --> 00:02:38.240
the rest of the aspects of the Iranian regimes aggressive
49
00:02:38.280 --> 00:02:42.319
policies unaddressed. And frankly, that was one of the fatal
50
00:02:42.360 --> 00:02:47.319
flaws of the twenty fifteen JCPOA that the Obama administration negotiated.
51
00:02:47.719 --> 00:02:52.280
It became just an agreement about the nuclear enrichment file
52
00:02:52.840 --> 00:02:56.039
and left costm Solamani and the Kudz force and Hesbala's
53
00:02:56.039 --> 00:03:01.280
behavior across the region unaddressed, the missile and drone aspect unaddressed,
54
00:03:01.319 --> 00:03:03.759
and that's what began to blow up then twenty seventeen,
55
00:03:03.879 --> 00:03:05.039
eighteen and so on.
56
00:03:05.240 --> 00:03:07.120
Alan to the point that this is what we've heard
57
00:03:07.120 --> 00:03:09.879
from the Trump administration. Have they made a convincing case
58
00:03:09.960 --> 00:03:13.280
about why there is an imminent threat from Iran that
59
00:03:13.319 --> 00:03:15.960
would warrant a military strike. Have you heard that yet?
60
00:03:16.159 --> 00:03:18.039
I have not heard. I obviously listened to the State
61
00:03:18.039 --> 00:03:22.719
of the Union speech. Joel is right, Iran presents a
62
00:03:22.840 --> 00:03:25.800
type of threat to the United States and that it
63
00:03:25.879 --> 00:03:28.560
is antagonistic to what we're trying to do in the region,
64
00:03:28.560 --> 00:03:30.240
to what we're trying to do in the world. But
65
00:03:30.360 --> 00:03:32.479
in terms of it being an imminent threat either in
66
00:03:32.479 --> 00:03:35.759
the sense of its nuclear program, its missile programs, or
67
00:03:35.800 --> 00:03:40.599
it's decimated, if not
Load full transcript
destroyed, networks of proxies, no, no threat. No,
68
00:03:40.599 --> 00:03:44.960
no imminent threat. And what's most interesting is that now
69
00:03:45.280 --> 00:03:48.439
Iran has lost almost all of its deterrence that it
70
00:03:48.520 --> 00:03:54.439
had before the October seventh attacks. So finding an agreement
71
00:03:54.479 --> 00:03:58.000
with Iran on the nuclear issue is theoretically possible. If
72
00:03:58.039 --> 00:04:00.879
you put missiles on the table, if you put proxies
73
00:04:00.919 --> 00:04:03.759
on the table, the odds of reaching an agreement where
74
00:04:03.759 --> 00:04:08.400
Iran is null null set, It's not going to happen.
75
00:04:08.560 --> 00:04:11.479
So, Colonel, if the goal is a deal, then why
76
00:04:11.759 --> 00:04:15.360
the military build up, why the expedited talks with the
77
00:04:15.360 --> 00:04:16.680
threat of a strike on the back end.
78
00:04:16.759 --> 00:04:18.879
Well, I think we're in a different world in a
79
00:04:18.959 --> 00:04:22.480
post October seventh and October eighth. Remember October seventh was
80
00:04:22.519 --> 00:04:25.759
the Hamas attack against Israel. October eighth was the Iranian
81
00:04:25.800 --> 00:04:28.519
regime and has Bali decision to enter that war, which
82
00:04:28.560 --> 00:04:30.000
they didn't have to do. That was a war of
83
00:04:30.079 --> 00:04:32.600
choice on the Iranian regimes, part of the Supreme Leader's
84
00:04:32.600 --> 00:04:35.240
decision making. So I think we're in a different when,
85
00:04:35.240 --> 00:04:38.120
in a different world post October seventh and eighth. Their
86
00:04:38.279 --> 00:04:42.439
use of militant proxies, the ballistic missiles and drones which
87
00:04:42.480 --> 00:04:46.319
they provided that have done so much damage in Ukraine.
88
00:04:46.759 --> 00:04:50.000
The huthis shutting down the Red Sea, for example, against
89
00:04:50.560 --> 00:04:55.480
against commercial shipping. That's not tolerated anymore. In that kind
90
00:04:55.519 --> 00:04:59.079
of hybrid threat from the Irani is not tolerated anymore.
91
00:04:59.240 --> 00:05:01.160
Many of those proxies been degraded.
92
00:05:00.759 --> 00:05:03.480
Now they've been degraded. They've been degraded, and the writing
93
00:05:03.560 --> 00:05:07.120
regimes on capabilities has been degraded. But the intention still
94
00:05:07.160 --> 00:05:09.360
seems to be there. And I think what the President
95
00:05:09.399 --> 00:05:12.279
and the administration are responding to is after the Twelve
96
00:05:12.319 --> 00:05:14.560
Day War last June, I think there was an expectation
97
00:05:14.680 --> 00:05:18.279
that the Supreme Leader in his regime would abandon that
98
00:05:18.360 --> 00:05:21.680
aggressive policy. They would they would abandon their ambitions to
99
00:05:22.399 --> 00:05:25.399
get back to nuclear enrichment, to continue to produce and
100
00:05:26.319 --> 00:05:29.000
proliferate drones and missiles, and then they would they would
101
00:05:29.000 --> 00:05:33.199
be willing to severtize or wind down the military proxies.
102
00:05:33.319 --> 00:05:35.160
And that just hasn't happened. The evidence has been in
103
00:05:35.879 --> 00:05:38.800
the other direction. I think that's what's been compelling this action.
104
00:05:39.199 --> 00:05:41.759
Are you concerned this will end with the US military
105
00:05:41.759 --> 00:05:43.839
strike and if so, what do you think that strike
106
00:05:44.120 --> 00:05:45.480
looks like? What form could it take.
107
00:05:45.600 --> 00:05:48.360
I'm not concernedabill end with a US military strike. I'm
108
00:05:48.360 --> 00:05:51.439
concerned it will start with the US military strike in
109
00:05:51.439 --> 00:05:53.920
the sense that Iran has made it known that, unlike
110
00:05:53.959 --> 00:05:58.439
previous responses, were to be attacked either what we would
111
00:05:58.639 --> 00:06:03.000
characterize as a limited or decapitation, any type of attack.
112
00:06:03.399 --> 00:06:06.759
Iran has said largely because it feels its deterrence has
113
00:06:06.759 --> 00:06:09.399
been eradicated and it needs to restore that it will
114
00:06:09.439 --> 00:06:16.600
respond aggressively and disproportionately. So I'm concerned that, despite the
115
00:06:16.759 --> 00:06:20.439
huge imbalance in military power between the US and Israel,
116
00:06:20.519 --> 00:06:25.519
were to join and Iran, that Iran will strike out
117
00:06:25.560 --> 00:06:28.759
and try to destabilize the region. Strike at our allies,
118
00:06:29.000 --> 00:06:31.800
strike at our forces in the region, strike at Israel,
119
00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:35.079
and that would lead two events in the in the
120
00:06:35.120 --> 00:06:36.560
region that can't be helpful.
121
00:06:36.600 --> 00:06:38.360
Colonel thirty seconds left, I'll give you the last word.
122
00:06:38.439 --> 00:06:40.240
I just think in a military confrontation, if it comes
123
00:06:40.279 --> 00:06:43.160
to that between the United States and Iran, it's not
124
00:06:43.160 --> 00:06:45.959
really a fight. It's not even just a fair fight.
125
00:06:46.199 --> 00:06:49.199
There really won't be a contest there. The Iranian regime
126
00:06:49.439 --> 00:06:53.319
has adopted as a security doctrine in which they essentially
127
00:06:53.319 --> 00:06:56.519
don't have conventional defenses. They don't really have an air force,
128
00:06:56.879 --> 00:06:59.720
a navy, an army, they barely have a missile and
129
00:06:59.759 --> 00:07:02.680
air defense. So this would be a short contest. It
130
00:07:02.680 --> 00:07:04.759
could be sharp, I think in the first couple of days,
131
00:07:05.040 --> 00:07:08.439
as it was in their confrontation with the Israelis last year.
132
00:07:08.759 --> 00:07:13.160
But the military disparity there is just vast, I think
133
00:07:13.279 --> 00:07:14.759
more than people understand.
134
00:07:15.120 --> 00:07:16.920
We'll see what happens. We'd love to have you back
135
00:07:16.920 --> 00:07:19.879
as things develop. Colonel Joel Rayburn and Alan Air, thank
136
00:07:19.920 --> 00:07:20.800
you so much for your time.
137
00:07:20.879 --> 00:07:21.680
Thank you having.
138
00:07:32.279 --> 00:07:37.519
Support journalism you trust, support PBS News. Donate now or
139
00:07:37.560 --> 00:07:40.120
even better, start a monthly contribution today.
140
00:08:00.079 --> 00:08:00.120
You