TRANSKRIPTIO 🔗
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One year ago on this show, I reported that zip code 19136 was renting in 33 days, right alongside the best of the Northeast.
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Today, the same zip code is at 55 days on market with a$225 gap between what landlords are asking and what tenants are actually paying.
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Meanwhile, across the city in South Philly, 19145 just posted 33 days and a$77 gap.
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For as long as I've been doing this, Northeast Philly was the dependable market, steady row homes, steady families, steady rents, while other parts of the city rode booms and busts.
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So what happened?
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Why is the Northeast suddenly underperforming South Philly?
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Today we're digging into 19136, Holmesburg, Penny Park, Winchester Park, and I'm going to show you exactly what the data says changed, because the answer is part market shift and part self-inflicted.
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If you own in Northeast, this episode is your wake-up call.
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Let's get into it.
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Welcome back to the Philly Landlord Guy, the show built for rental owners, property managers, and investors who want real, no-fluff facts about Philadelphia market, neighborhood by neighborhood.
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I'm your host, Yuriy Skripnichenko, the guy with the crazy last name, licensed real estate broker and certified property manager here in the city.
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So let's get into it, and let's start with the citywide baseline first.
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Across Philadelphia in September, there were 1,659 new units listed and 1,185 units rented.
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The median listed price was 1,800.
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The median rented price was 1,775.
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A$25 gap, about 1%, citywide landlords are pricing accurately.
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And the big citywide story this month, days on the market jumped to 58, up from 46 reported in August.
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The seasonal slowdown is here.
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School year moves are done, and we're entering the slowest season stretch of the year.
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Months of supply 2.5, with October inventory at 4,072 units, actually down from 4,400 a year ago.
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Now I'll be fair to the Northeast right up front.
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19136, 55 days is roughly in the line with the citywide 58.
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Part of what's happening here is the same seasonal slowdown everyone's feeling.
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But hold on to that$25 citywide gap, because 19136 version of that number is nine times bigger, And South Philly, in the same slow months, rented in 33 days.
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That contrast is today's story.
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So let's establish what the 19136 zip code actually is.
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It sits in the lower northeast along the Delaware River, split down the middle by, Pennypack Creek.
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About, 36 to 39,000 residents, roughly 13,000 households.
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The main neighborhoods Holmesburg, the historic core along Frankford Ave, one of the oldest settlements in the Northeast, plus Pennypack, Winchester Park, and the northern edge of Mayfair.
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The housing stock, classic Northeast product, row homes and twins built primarily in 1940s, with Pennypack Park has its green spine running through the middle.
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This is more suburban feeling than the Riverwards and it's definitely lower density, around 6,500 to 8,000 people per square mile versus, 30,000-plus in the South Philly zip codes we've cover-covered before.
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Median home value about$236,000 per Zillow.
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It's up 5% over the past year, and here is important detail.
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Homes for sale here go pending in about 16 days.
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Remember that number because the sales market being hot while the rental market stalls tells us something.
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This is a working-class transitioning community.
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Median household income runs roughly from 57 to$65,000, depending on the source and the year.
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It's solidly below It solidly below the citywide trajectory of places like 19145 which just crossed$72,000.
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Hallsburg specifically is classified as lower middle income with childhood poverty rate about 26%.
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So the average base is working families, price sensitive, needing three-bedroom product.
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And in fact, rentals in 19136 are mostly three-plus bedrooms.
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So transit, and here is a structural disadvantage versus South Philly.
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19136 has no subway.
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The Market-Frankford El ends, at Frankford Terminal, a ZIP code away.
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What you have here is the bus network along Frankford and Torresdale Avenues and the Holmesburg Junction Regional Rail Station on the Trenton Line.
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Compare that to 19145 and 19148, sitting directly on the Broad Street Line.
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For a tenant base that increasingly values transit, matters more every year.
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So the anchors here is Pennypack Park, over 1,600 acres of, parkland, a real amenity.
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The Frankford Avenue commercial corridor and the Holmesburg deep history, including the old prison site.
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It's a stable, livable family neighborhood.
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This
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is not a distressed market story, which makes the rental numbers more interesting, not less.
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Now the September MLS report, And I'll give you honest caveat up front here, same as I did in 19120.
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This is a thin month.
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Sixteen units listed, only five rented.
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Five closed lease- Five closed leases is not a statistically robust sample, so I'm going to combine it with outside data as we go.
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But even a thin month tells a story when every indicator points the same direction.
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So the September numbers, listed median 1,625, sold median 1,400.
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That is a$225 gap, about 14% between ask and close.
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Days on market 55, only one unit pending at the month's end, meaning the October pipeline is nearly empty.
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End of month inventory 19 units, and October is already at 20, up from 14 units a year ago.
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That's a 43% increase year-over-year inventory build-up in a small market.
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The Zillow platform currently shows about 39 active rentals in 19136, double what the MLS shows.
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So like 19120, a chunk of this market rents off MLS.
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And Zillow's median asking rent for the ZIP is$1,400.
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Listen to that again.
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Zillow's median ask equals the MLS median close.
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So here's the why.
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Why is the Northeast trailing South Philly?
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Three reasons, and the first one is self-inflicted.
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Landlords here are priced in a market that doesn't exist.
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Look at the year-over-year asking data.
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In October 2025, the median list price in 19136 was$1,425.
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It is$1,625 today, a 14% increase in asking rents in one year.
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Did tenant income in Holmesburg rose 14%?
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No.
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The median household income here is$57,000 to$65,000.
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That supports roughly$1,400 to$1,600 in rent at healthy ratios.
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Landlords in the Northeast watched citywide rent climb, watched their own assessment climb, insurance prices climb, and repriced their units upward.
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But the tenant base on the other side of the equation simply cannot pay it.
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The market said no.
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That's the$225 gap.
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And again, as over and over I've been saying this year in all of the PSAs, make sure that you're pricing your property correctly.
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The gap
of$225 can keep your property on the market much longer than if you price it correctly from the beginning.
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And for context, the citywide gap between ask and close this month was$25, about 1%.
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19136 is 14%.
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The seasonal slowdown explained the 55 days.
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It does not explain a gap nine times the citywide norm.
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That part is pricing.
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Reason two, the demand wave moved south.
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The income story we've documented all year is real.
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19146 doubled.
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19145 doubled.
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LowerMSM is up 12 and A half percent in a single year.
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Young, high-earning renters concentrated in South Philly near the Broad Street Line, near Passyunk, near the arena steward.
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The Northeast tenant base, meanwhile, is working families whose income grew far more slowly than the rest of the city, or at least the southern part of it, and Fishtown.
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Demand didn't vanish in Northeast, it just didn't grow while landlords' expectations did.
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And reason three, the buyers are taking the tenants.
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Remember that sales number?
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Homes here go pending in 16 days at a median price around$236,000.
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At that price point rent versus buy math is tightest in the city, or one of the tightest in the city.
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At$236,000, purchase rents roughly 18 to$1950 a month all in, not dramatically more than$1625 asking rent.
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The national Zillow data shows renting bids buying by$1,000 a month on average.
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But in 19136, that gap nearly closes.
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So your strongest would-be tenants, the dual income working families, are buying these houses instead of renting them.
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The hot sales market is literally absorbing the top of the rental demand pool.
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That is the opposite of what is happening in 19145, where$302,000 prices keep tenants renting.
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Why I'm comparing it to 19145 is simply because this is our next zip code that we will cover in the next episode.
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So what this means practically if you own in 19136 price at the market, not at your hopes 14 to$1500 for standard three-bedroom products with the premium and reserves for generally renovated units with laundry and parking.
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At 1625, you will sit through the s- 55 days average and likely cut anyway.
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Retention is even more valuable here than elsewhere.
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In a thin market with one pending unit, losing a paying tenant in November could mean a vacancy far into January of next year.
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And know your exit math.
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With home spending at 16 days at rising prices, if a unit isn't penciling as a rental, this is one of UC codes where the sales market gives you a generally fast, strong exit option.
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That's not a defeat, that's a portfolio management Quick thank you to our sponsor, TrustArt Realty.
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If today's episode stung a little because your Northeast unit has been sitting, this is exactly what a real rental analysis is for.
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TrustArt Realty will pull actual comps for your block and tell you the number that rents in 30 days, not the number that sits for 90.
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It's free for all of our listeners.
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Reach out at trustartrealty@phillylandlordguy.com or go to trustartrealty.com and click the link to schedule your free consultation.
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So let's plan this.
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19136 is not a broken market.
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It's a stable, family-oriented, Lower Northeast neighborhood with generally hot sales market.
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What's broken is the pricing.
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Asking rents jumped 14% in a year in a zip where tenants' income did not move, and as the result is 55 days on the market and$225 ask to close gap.
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The Northeast hasn't lost its fundamentals, it's lost its pricing discipline right as the city demand wave concentrated in South Philly.
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If you own here, price at 14 to 1,500 for a standard product, fight for your renewals, and remember, the 60-day sales market is your friend if a property stops penciling.
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If you find this episode useful, information helpful, subscribe, leave a review, and drop your zip code and the questions in the comments.
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I read and answer them myself.
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Keep your properties clean, stay legal, and I'll catch you in the next episode.