TRANSKRIPTIO 🔗
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Mike Raya returning to the pod for another edition of Inside Communications.
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Thanks for having me.
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I I fully expected after watching all your debates that you'd be here in a suit and tie for me, but I kind of like that.
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I'm just getting the hoodie.
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Yeah, exactly.
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We've come back down to earth.
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My uniform is retired for four years or whatever it may be.
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We're now two major debates in.
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There's another this will air on Tuesday, the the 20th.
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So there's another debate tonight, the Channel 12 debate for the governor's race.
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But Lieutenant Governor's wrapped up.
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It's definitely the home stretch.
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Early voting has started.
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Where do these races stand right now in terms of a, from a communication standpoint, uh what are the next major steps that each of these candidates are thinking about taking?
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Sure.
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So I think any of the races, whether it's the GUPS race, the LG race, any of the congressional races, they're all thinking right now about their closing message.
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They're all thinking about how do I get the call to action to my most impassioned supporters and those that are leaning in my direction to actually go to the polls, whether they go early, whether they show up on election day, which is why you're beginning to see a kind of shift in the tone and the tenor of some of the paid ads that are out there.
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They're including more of that call to action to get out to vote.
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They're doubling down on the biographical components of their message where they need to, or if they're behind, they're doubling down on the things that are there to be able to give their opponent or supporters of their opponent pause before going out.
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But I think that that's really where they are this week.
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Um I think when we think about the governor's racing, obviously all their attention today and tomorrow is on their debate prep, being able to do what they can in that last broad appeal moment in the campaign.
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Um it's the la if you go back and you look four years ago, this was the WPRI debate, it was the last one before the the primary, um, where Helena Folk really did have a great moment and that probably did propel her to be able to win election day.
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Um, I think in some ways the the challenging candidates, um, Ken Bloch and Ari McKain, they are are are facing a little bit of that same challenge that Helena faced four years ago in the primary, in that this WPRI debate, would which is like very like traditionally the one that people turn out for.
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Um it's televised.
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Channel 12 does a really good job of being able to promote it across all different platforms.
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Um Tim White and Ted Nasi have done at this point in the neighborhood, I think it's 103 uh debates over the course of their career together.
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Um this is where voters who are either truly on the fence or haven't truly engaged yet, they find their way to be able to tune in.
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But for Ken and Aaron, just like Helena four years ago in the primary, early voting has already started.
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There are people who have already cast their ballot that they're not going to be able to convince.
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They're not going to be able to pull over onto the other side and be able to get there.
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So they need to figure out in these debates how are they able to not only sort of convert some of the undecided who haven't pulled the the lever yet, but potentially get other people out into the polls.
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Right.
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Much of this race, at least in terms of an inside baseball track for a few weeks anyway, focused on whether or not the Republican nominee, Aaron Gukin, would get out of the race, creating a an ostensibly creating a head-to-head matchup between Ken Block and Helena Bonano folks.
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That's not going to happen.
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There's no way Gukin's getting out.
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Polling shows blocked trails anywhere in the neighborhood of 10-ish points, we'll say, with margins of error, sort of an anecdotal amalgamation of polling right there.
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Is that something that when you when you're looking at a WPRI debate that does have such a wide appeal and trust behind it, I think voters trust that debate.
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Is that something that, given the fact that Goukean is on that stage, does Bloch have an opportunity here to move this within some kind of toss-up scenario heading into actual election day?
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Maybe.
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And when you just do the back of the envelope math, he would essentially have to win 100% undecided voters right now without losing any.
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I think anytime a candidate is calling on another candidate to drop out of a race publicly, it's a disservice to voters.
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It's not up to another candidate to tell a another person running for that seat whether they deserve to be on the ballot or not, or whether they have a rightful place on that ballot.
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Um, and frankly, I mean Aaron ran the Republican primary,
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won the Republican primary, the the Republican Party has a place on the Rhode Island ballot.
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Um so the the that tactical effort, I think there's certainly ways.
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I know when um I've been in and around other campaigns, there's the math, yeah, like you always like the math maths.
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So certain candidates, a three or a four-way or a five-way race is more beneficial to them than a head-to-head.
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Um, but you don't necessarily come out and use your resources and create and and and uh advocate for less choice for voters.
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Um I think that's a disservice to voters.
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I think that just needs to be put out there.
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Um I do think where there are opportunities for the the the challenging candidates, and and I'm I'm talking there about Ken Bach and Aaron McKean is uh for them to be able to kind of offer a clear difference of governance.
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Um and I think that's one of the things that's actually been lacking in the the the debates prior, right?
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If you look at the first debate um with Channel 10 that Jane Valescenti hosted, that felt like a morning radio talk show, a morning zoo talk show where it was kind of gotcha questions, soundbite questions, like do you support this ideological thing or that ideological thing?
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And it didn't give voters a great opportunity to be able to understand what a Ken Bloch administration would look like or what an Aragon Cain administration would look like.
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They both spoke largely in um in in in boiled down, kind of quick sound bites.
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So like neither of them got very, very deep.
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Um on your debate, I think there was a lot more opportunity for them to get deep.
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I I don't think that they necessarily chose to.
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Um, although Ken Block, to his credit, started to on a handful of things.
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I think he was a little bit more substantive around what his views on health care are.
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I think he showed a little bit of difference from Glena Folk's on an approach to housing.
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I I mean, I think that he opened himself up to critique on those, and I think that he needs to be ready for uh to defend his record on being against the Affordable Care Act and uh articulating that he is gonna plan to plan when it comes to to housing.
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But I think that those are like those those are clear differences of governing approach that would be that I think will be something that that he'll need to be prepared to dig down or or or dig into a little bit more.
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Um I do think that the there is opportunity.
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I don't know if the math is gonna math to be able to kind of put this race into kind of that true toss-up where you're within one, one and a half points of a margin of error.
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Um, particularly because people have started to vote.
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The I I think we we need to be mindful of, I don't know what the numbers are today, but polls have been open.
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People are going to their town hall, they are casting ballots.
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Um, and the the the polling that we see through here is always going to be a snapshot in time.
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And that snapshot in time doesn't necessarily take into effect levers that have already been pulled.
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Well, one race that is consistently polling as basically a dead heat at this point is the Lieutenant Governor's race.
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That's Lieutenant Governor Matos and the challenger, Republican John Laughlin.
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Look, uh I don't know how this race moves just from my standpoint.
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I don't know how anybody in in this race there are such stark differences on major issues, even if those issues aren't necessarily within the purview of the office, that it's hard to imagine what the gray area could be.
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Nonetheless, I turn to you closing messages as these two candidates now vie for this office.
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I mean, it comes down to even though early voting has started, it comes down to what?
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There's no more debates.
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Yeah, I I think this is I this has been one of the most interesting races to watch.
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I they have both moved into actually let me back up one second.
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I want to say that I I kind of appreciate this race because it's a throwback to the politics that I engaged in when I first started my career 20 years ago.
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Um strong differences of opinion, incredible amount of respect.
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They every debate that I've I've listened to or watched the these two candidates in, um, it almost you almost get the sense of like they enjoy sharing the time together, they enjoy the exchange of ideas.
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And in it, like none of it has devolved into personal attacks or misrepresentations.
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Um, oh, you're a socialist, oh, you're MAGA, um, in the way that we've seen, even in the governor's race, which is crazy to me.
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Um, it it in a way that um a former CEO of a Fortune 7 company is being labeled as a socialist, which is just almost laughable.
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Um, but I think in this race, it's it's it's a nice and refreshing throwback to those times where two candidates could have significant, vehement, substantive differences of of opinion and uh different philosophies for governing, but still maintain a level of respect and admiration for each other's public service.
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Um what we're seeing here, I I think they they are both moving into their closing message.
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Um, certainly you're seeing with Lieutenant Governor Matos, she is telling her personal story anywhere and everywhere that she can be.
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She is all over the state with supporters.
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I think she's done a very good job as part of her closing um engagement campaign to align with other Democrats who are running for local office on the East Bay.
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I saw her and her team at the Warren Walkabout this weekend with a couple of candidates running for town council in Barrington and Warren.
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Um the I think with John Laughlin, you're seeing him really drive a message toward independent, moderate, probably older male voters that is really honed in on pocketbook issues, tax issues.
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Um, and he's going to where those voters are.
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Um he's doing a lot of tough radio.
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He's doing the the the uh the the cattle call events in central Rhode Island where those votes are going to come from.
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Um and I I think this is a uh will come down to who's more organized, who's got the the better organization to get doors out there.
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Um and I think that this race is close in part because of the strength of both candidates, um, but also it is a signal of this anti-incumbency that we are feeling.
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In a a race like Lieutenant Governor that does not draw a lot of attention, particularly, should have a Democrat feeling more secure in where they are, particularly without the caricature type candidate that we've had in the past from the Bull Moose Party or the Bull Moose, no cool moose.
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Cool moose.
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Yeah.
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Cool moose.
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The cool moose party.
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Um that there is kind of this sense of we are ready for change.
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Um, and we're seeing that everywhere.
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I think that's one of the reasons that the governor's race.
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And again, I'm not going to buy an argument that a nine-point, the a week, two and a half weeks away from election day is a toss-up.
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But looking at the state's demographics, looking at the the the performance of the congressional candidates and the and and Jack Reed's number, that race shouldn't be it should be a 12-point race, not a nine-point race.
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Uh, and I do think that some of that is in this
sense of we're like change is a winning message in this cycle.
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Um, and Helena folks is not Dan McKee by any stretch, but she's got a D next to her name.
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The Democrats have been in that uh in the governor's office since 2014.
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Um, so there are going to be folks who are like, let's go let someone else try this and and see what we're able to get from it.
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I don't think that alone is gonna be a winning message for for Ken Block.
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I think if he does want to close the rest of that nine-point gap, he needs to be able to start showing Rhode Island voters that he is able to do more than just articulate what we all know is wrong with the state and be able to show a vision for how he's gonna do it differently, who he's gonna bring into government, what kind of policies or what his budget's gonna look like.
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It can't just be a, hey, I'm gonna cut your electricity bill by 25%.
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Trust me.
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Yeah.
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I think right now it's interesting.
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It's an odd analogy because of the the human beings and the politics, but I remember hearing Steve Bannon heading into and yeah, this like a lookout right there.
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Steve Bannon, your centerpiece for discussions on Rhode Island governors' races for some reason.
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But I remember hearing him, I guess it was right around the time of Trump too, whatever, right before, right after, describing what he called MAGA Plus.
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And this was their model that shifted from MAGA 2016 or 2020 into something that included the Maha movement, you know, the the healthy foods, obviously, also the tech bros and the billionaires and so on and so forth.
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The the expansion of MAGA, MAGA Plus, also more of a Christian nationalist thing.
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It's almost like Ken Block needs Ken Block plus.
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He needs Ken Block plus another large constituency.
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And I think he tried to reach for it a little bit with the transit lane, we're going to make the buses free.
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He met with Scott Wolfe, Gross Smart, and tried to put that into an affordability plan.
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But it's almost like he needs that other wide base that is either politically homeless or traditionally Democrat that would in large part move across.
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I just don't know what that is or if that's even available right now.
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Right.
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And the thing is, and I don't want to talk only about Ken Block's campaign.
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I think that's true for all of them, for anyone.
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And in many ways, that's the challenge of any campaign or any communications effort or any PR effort.
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It's identifying the audience that you are going to try to send a call of action out to.
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And when we look at this for like our clients, like it's not like it's not that important to our clients for us to be able to place stories for them, for people to know what they're doing, if it's not aligned with some kind of call to action, whether it's for more funding, whether it's for legislative approval of a uh a new waiver to be able to do things differently, or if it's for building public and civic support for a capital uh investment that they want to make in infrastructure.
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Um, I guess it's the same thing.
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You don't have an audience that is primed and ready to listen to and act on the CTA or the call to action that you put in place, your message might be popular, or you might say things that resonate with folks, but it doesn't necessarily go anywhere.
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I think when you look at the three candidates for for governor and you look at where their closing messages are, like the the Helena campaign is talking very much about the challenges that Rhode Islanders face.
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She's talking directly to people, she's using anecdotes, she's using stories to be able to put in context for every voter in the state.
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These are the things that I'm going to prioritize, and here's how I'm going to do it.
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And I need your help.
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And that's like that.
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I need your help.
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It's go vote for me.
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I need your help, is kind of show up if and when I'm governor and be there with me to advocate for these things.
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That that's kind of our shared approach.
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10 Block campaign, I think he's doing a really good job.
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I will give him a lot of credit for being able to articulate in ways that regular Rhode Islanders are able to understand complex challenges, but challenges that we're already aware of.
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The bridge sucked.
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Yep, we all know that.
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Um, and he is able to lean into and hone the frustration that a lot of us have about that and be able to articulate it in a way that makes sense to all of us.
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Um but he's only rarely talking about, or or he's only truly talking about the problem without offering the solution to go with it.
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And I think that's where that 10% that's undecided, that if if if it were, and if he is successful to be able to convert the rest of that, he is going to have to.
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And I and frankly, I think it's he's got 11, 12, uh 15 days to do it.
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I think he doesn't have a lot of money, he doesn't have a lot of time.
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Um, so it's it's an uphill battle there, but that is his message, it resonates on the surface, but it is one that it is not aligned with a clear call to action other than she's bad.
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Um, and I don't think that that is I I think that is enough to, and I I I believe it was Tednecy in his column this weekend.
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He said it it's the question for Ken Block's campaign is do they want to be governor or do they want to be right?
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And the and I think that there needs to be a uh more of a focus around what his approach, how his style of governing is going to be, and what the problem solving is gonna actually look like rather than just the problem articulation.
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Um I mean, I remember this, I I like we talk about this all the time.
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Like we coach little, I coach little league.
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Like the I say to my assistant coaches and even my players all the time, don't come up and just tell me a problem unless you want to also tell me a little bit of what you think the solution should be.
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We're not hitting a lot.
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Okay.
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What do we need to do?
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Should we develop the order?
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Should we put kids in a different spot?
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Like, what's that going to look like?
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Don't just tell me the things that's obvious.
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I can look at this, I can look at game changer just like anybody else and see that we only got four hits.
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Um, so I think that's gonna be what his challenge in the debate's gonna be about of can he push and get that block plus of what now is a solution to to the bridge?
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What now is, like, how is he going to make the software systems in DOA and and DHS work better and and hold accountable?
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And it can't just be I went to Texas and had a consulting project.
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All to be determined, all to be seen, the WPRI debate.
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Again, you're if you're hearing this on Tuesday the 20th, that's tonight, and we'll have uh reaction to that throughout uh podcast and radio over the next several days.
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All right.
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So lastly, here, when we look at this election cycle, I know this is something that we've talked about a lot, that it was the sleepiest election cycle, the most boring governor's race in history, all these types of things.
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And you were actually kind of pushing back on that notion more than than most people, and that it get there.
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And it kind of got there.
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But but my question is just from a uh a content standpoint, has have local politics in your in your mind done a good job of reaching and getting the attention and can and keeping the attention of the average Rhode Islander this cycle, or is it still inside baseball?
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Yeah, it's inside baseball.
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It's inside baseball.
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Like I I I do think this was a really sleek, like I'm I've come around to not accept I'm not gonna accept it the same way that I think media accepts it.
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It was a sleepy election cycle, I think in large part because it was a strange confluence of personalities.
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Um I think when we go back and we look at the Democratic governor's uh race for um i i in the primary, um I can't tell even now if Deanne McKee really wanted to win.
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Um the I think he I think he wanted to win.
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I don't think he wanted to win and be governor.
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Um and I think that that made it a very odd campaign that it was not one that the an incumbent talked a lot about their record.
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It was not one where you saw a lot of surrogates coming out for either candidate.
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Um, and it seemed like it.
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Was very much a you know focused on change.
00:25:12.819 --> 00:25:31.220
Um I think the even when you bring in some of the more interesting compelling factors, the David Morales stuff in Providence, the fact that Sabina Matos was the only uh contested um statewide race where the incumbent actually prevailed.
00:25:31.380 --> 00:25:35.299
Um I mean, we've got generational change in Maitucket.
00:25:35.539 --> 00:25:46.340
Like there were a lot of really like when you go back and get to a 30,000 foot level, a lot of really compelling or interesting things to be able to think about with this race.
00:25:46.500 --> 00:25:59.700
But I think it's so difficult for local candidates to be able to break through in a an era where everything is national.
00:26:00.819 --> 00:26:08.740
And people, some of it is the existential of the Providence Journal.
00:26:08.819 --> 00:26:09.779
Like we've talked about this before.
00:26:09.940 --> 00:26:12.500
When I was at Providence College, the Monday Journal was an inch thick.
00:26:12.660 --> 00:26:14.660
Now the Sunday Journal is half an inch thick.
00:26:14.900 --> 00:26:24.900
Um the there is less opportunity to be able for local organizations to be able to own a cycle and compete with the national pressures.
00:26:25.140 --> 00:26:49.059
People are turning to, and there's a a great study by the Carnegie Foundation uh from about a year ago of the old gatekeepers,
institutions, newspapers, um at the higher education, those gatekeepers of information and expertise and influence do not carry the same weight now that they did even five years ago.
00:26:49.140 --> 00:27:00.660
And people are turning to social influencers, brands, and organizations or people with smaller reach because they trust them, they know them, they have a more personal connection to it.
00:27:00.740 --> 00:27:04.900
And I think that in a state like Rhode Island, we're still catching up to some of that.
00:27:04.980 --> 00:27:37.380
I mean, we see this as some of our clients, where we are are working with them to get more and more comfortable and more and more savvy engaging with social media influencers, being able to use their own platforms to engage directly with their audiences, and frankly, upend their decades-long approach of trying to reach broad audiences and really hone up in on who are the who are the niche audiences or the targeted audience that you actually have to engage with.
00:27:37.460 --> 00:27:46.100
And it's no longer necessary for most organizations, most campaigns to have to reach 1.2 million people.
00:27:46.259 --> 00:27:51.539
Um, but that is one of the things that if you're running statewide, that does become one of the challenges.
00:27:51.860 --> 00:28:01.460
And what you end up having to do and to do it well is you're running, yes, a little bit of a brow-based campaign because you need it's it's the most economical way to get that out.
00:28:01.700 --> 00:28:13.779
But to really be able to get the the impact, you're running hundreds of microcampaigns, hundreds of mini outreach.
00:28:13.860 --> 00:28:17.620
Um, and I look at like like just look at the debates from from this cycle.
00:28:17.700 --> 00:28:34.340
And I do think that there's a good mix of reach between the three that the gubernatorial candidates do, where you've got channel 10 with Jean Balicente, who is like very widely seen and has wide reach among older audiences.
00:28:34.579 --> 00:28:54.900
You've got your podcast and and and the debate that you do, Bill, which is probably a little bit more inside y insider-y, but also reaching and talking to issues that matter to a younger cohort or a um, in some cases, more urban cohort, um, just knowing where your your reach is.
00:28:55.059 --> 00:29:05.940
And then you've got channel 12, which is more of the the true voter in in broad, full statewide, um, that that's going to get there.
00:29:06.180 --> 00:29:14.579
And I think that that's going to be the challenge going forward in how some of these campaigns are going to be able to make sure that they're relevant.
00:29:14.819 --> 00:29:15.860
One last thing on the debates.
00:29:16.259 --> 00:29:17.779
I just I do want to shout this out.
00:29:17.860 --> 00:29:25.059
I spent time yesterday watching Brian Crandall's debate with Seth Magazine or and Bitt Miller.
00:29:25.380 --> 00:29:25.539
Yeah.
00:29:25.779 --> 00:29:28.180
Um Brian did an excellent
job.
00:29:28.420 --> 00:29:39.220
Brian was like thoughtful, substantive, kept the candidates on point, was asking questions that are relevant to the majority of voters.
00:29:39.380 --> 00:29:44.740
Um, and I really I hats off to Channel 12 for giving him the opportunity to do that.
00:29:44.900 --> 00:29:47.539
I think that he deserves the opportunity to do more.
00:29:47.779 --> 00:29:53.940
Um, and I think that uh Channel 10 would be well served to have Bryant Crandall be their lead moderator going forward.
00:29:54.259 --> 00:29:55.460
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see.
00:29:55.620 --> 00:30:00.259
I agree that the, I mean, it's just such a different stylistic thing than what Valacenti brings to the table.
00:30:00.420 --> 00:30:03.299
And that Congressional District 2 race, we didn't even talk about that.
00:30:03.380 --> 00:30:04.420
We'll see how that plays out.
00:30:04.500 --> 00:30:16.420
But something tells me that uh Rhode Islanders aren't gonna vote for a guy who boasts about his experience of January 6th or his uh ignores his, we'll just say sketchy history at best.
00:30:16.500 --> 00:30:18.100
It's hard to imagine that's a real race.
00:30:18.180 --> 00:30:21.220
At the same time, difficult time for incumbents.
00:30:21.860 --> 00:30:22.420
Who knows?
00:30:22.579 --> 00:30:25.860
I mean, is Seth Magaziner gonna get you know get smoked in this race?
00:30:25.940 --> 00:30:27.299
I don't know, maybe probably not.
00:30:28.900 --> 00:30:32.900
I I'll uh you'll see me eat something if that happens.
00:30:33.539 --> 00:30:34.100
Exactly.
00:30:34.420 --> 00:30:37.380
I I think to Seth's credit, I think Seth's run a good campaign.
00:30:37.460 --> 00:30:39.140
I think he's been really focused on the issues.
00:30:39.220 --> 00:30:44.579
Actually, I saw him at the New England Tech groundbreaking last week.
00:30:44.740 --> 00:30:52.819
Um he has matured in his uh public speaking, in in his presentation skills.
00:30:52.900 --> 00:30:58.579
I think that he is was uh has been a really effective candidate on on this campaign.
00:30:58.660 --> 00:31:04.180
Um and I think he's avoided falling into some of the rabbit holes and some of the traps.
00:31:04.259 --> 00:31:15.299
And I think it's very easy for kind of pragmatic, quote unquote normie Democrats to fall into when running against some of these cartoonish um right-wing candidates.
00:31:15.620 --> 00:31:38.900
Um but it will be it, it it's I think the there's a lot of people and organizations in and um institutions who are sitting around and and you know looking at who the next governor is going to be, what is the makeup of the the state house going to look like, what is the relationship that the governor is going to have with the General Assembly?
00:31:39.059 --> 00:31:40.740
Um, because it is gonna be different.
00:31:40.819 --> 00:32:05.860
Like the even if the conventional wisdom of Democrats do well and prevail and and we we have all Democratic uh statewide um general officers, um, even if we have that kind of continuation, it's going to be a very different style of government and tone of government than we've had the last six years.
00:32:06.019 --> 00:32:09.620
Um and and I think it will be interesting times.
00:32:09.779 --> 00:32:15.460
I think it will be an opportunity for some issues that might not have gotten the same amount of attention to get some.
00:32:15.620 --> 00:32:30.500
Um, and I think from a communication standpoint, it's gonna be regardless of and something there, I think it's gonna be a very different communication style that I'm looking forward to just being able to observe and and see and and critique and have some of these academic conversations about.
00:32:30.819 --> 00:32:30.980
Yeah.
00:32:31.140 --> 00:32:32.660
Uh likewise, very much so.
00:32:32.740 --> 00:32:39.460
It'll but, you know, I think it's gonna be an interesting shift in Rhode Island, no matter what, no matter what the outcome of the governor's race is, it's gonna be a shift.
00:32:39.539 --> 00:32:42.660
And I think Rhode Islanders are gonna welcome that by and large, no doubt about it.
00:32:42.819 --> 00:32:47.140
Mike Rea, founder and president of Half Street Group, half streetgroup.com.
00:32:47.460 --> 00:32:48.900
Hey, happy election season.
00:32:48.980 --> 00:32:49.380
Here we go.
00:32:49.539 --> 00:32:49.940
Thanks, Bill.
00:32:50.100 --> 00:32:50.740
I'll talk to you soon.