رونوشت کامل Bitcoin's Bottom, Quantum Risk & On-Chain Demand w/ David Puell (ARK Invest) | Unbiased Ep. 4

more months to to be like very sure that the trend is strong and continuing. 00:06:08.000 --> 00:06:16.000 Um at the same time, you know, coming September risk on assets always suffer, especially before the midterms, uh, and so on and so forth. 00:06:16.160 --> 00:06:23.360 Like historically, September is always a down month before the midterms for the last I think 40 years or so. 00:06:23.600 --> 00:06:35.839 So you have a lot of uh factors still of uncertainty that may suggest at the very least some range here uh wouldn't wouldn't surprise me, especially after a short squeeze, right? 00:06:36.319 --> 00:06:44.079 Um at the same time, you know, a downside risk to the actual mean on the market makes a lot of sense right now. 00:06:45.600 --> 00:06:47.839 Yeah, I've seen um, yeah, exactly. 00:06:47.920 --> 00:07:01.360 Like September is not a good month, but also after this run, uh what I've seen on chain is a lot of you know, there's some some profit taking, um realizing profits after the move. 00:07:01.519 --> 00:07:06.720 Like you say as uh SOPR, it's really you know at the high levels. 00:07:07.040 --> 00:07:20.000 Um so it's that also we we are close to the one year moving average with also um it's uh it's a resistance historically before we we uh start a bull market. 00:07:20.079 --> 00:07:28.639 I don't know if you that that that um left me led me to to believe there there's uh at least one more correction. 00:07:28.720 --> 00:07:31.279 Uh but what what are your thoughts on that? 00:07:32.000 --> 00:07:48.240 Um well when you say correction, that that correction may come in uh may may look in the may be something like okay, we correct, but we correct into a higher low, which would be consistent with you know the trend is still up. 00:07:48.399 --> 00:07:55.680 So that's perfectly reasonable, especially since we're facing a bunch of resistance here, uh technical and and and some on chain. 00:07:55.759 --> 00:08:05.199 I think it's mostly technical, and just looking at the price action a little bit, you know, what tended to be support, resistance uh become support and so on. 00:08:05.920 --> 00:08:10.560 So yeah, at the very least, range bound would make sense here. 00:08:10.720 --> 00:08:31.839 Um but you never know, bitcoin is gets going, gets going so um um, but yeah, we're we're we're in a um it wouldn't surprise me to have uh develop into a let's say local correction here and and and confirm the trend by having um higher low. 00:08:33.039 --> 00:08:34.159 Yeah, thank you. 00:08:35.440 --> 00:08:58.240 I did want to ask you um your I guess approach to using on-chain in the market, because I think for a while, um like a lot of investors, you could look at historical levels of these metrics like MVRV um and try and map out where a bottom might be, but every every cycle or year the the metrics don't act the same at peaks and and and bottoms in the market. 00:08:58.480 --> 00:09:07.840 So how do you like how do you approach the on-chain like

classic on-chain metrics and using them like across years and markets and cycles? 00:09:08.559 --> 00:09:10.080 Um that's a good question. 00:09:10.320 --> 00:09:15.840 So I would say there's three um topics there. 00:09:16.000 --> 00:09:29.679 One is you have to account for observer effects over time, the fact that not only everyone in retail and especially institutions now are looking at at metrics like these, and they may want to front run them, right? 00:09:30.000 --> 00:09:41.039 Uh so instead of waiting for the precise level below realized price and so on, they may just start investing um earlier. 00:09:41.200 --> 00:09:42.720 And that's what institutions do. 00:09:42.799 --> 00:09:53.039 They they assume that no market is uh is is fully perfect, that history may rhyme, but certainly not um to the T. 00:09:53.679 --> 00:09:58.879 So they average in, and sometimes that's enough to create enough of a bottom, right? 00:09:59.360 --> 00:10:10.639 Um the other the second um thing I look at would be looking at the ways price relative to the on-chain metrics has behaved differently this time around. 00:10:10.799 --> 00:10:19.200 To give you the big example, we went up not as severely or parabolically uh in this cycle. 00:10:19.360 --> 00:10:26.480 So you can, at the very least, in your mental model, create an expectation that maybe there will be something different on the way down, right? 00:10:26.879 --> 00:10:29.600 Proportional to how it went up. 00:10:30.159 --> 00:10:39.200 So if it went up not as severely, you can make make the expectation that maybe we won't go down as severely as well. 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:50.720 Um, and that also keeps in line with the um the volatility uh of Bitcoin over time, which has been compressing uh very clearly. 00:10:50.960 --> 00:11:01.200 Um and not only the volatility, but the fourth moment, like the the kurtosis, meaning very high volatility and very short amounts of time. 00:11:01.600 --> 00:11:09.120 So that has also diminished compared to the last cycle, let alone 2013 and 2011 and so on and so forth. 00:11:09.360 --> 00:11:26.720 So all that keeps you in your toes in the sense that you have to account for what's different this time around and try to like frame a mental model that uh includes that, but also like the the on-chain information that you may be looking at at any given time. 00:11:27.679 --> 00:11:36.159 And and the third topic you have to assess is the uh if the metric is still if the metric itself still makes sense, right? 00:11:36.399 --> 00:11:42.639 Uh or account for some noise in the metric given something that changed in the market broadly. 00:11:42.879 --> 00:11:58.799 One example could be um if you have long-term holder supply versus short-term holder supply or something like that, something that you know cuts off uh the or segments the population of coins in in the network. 00:11:59.039 --> 00:12:05.519 Um maybe the ETF uh and and the DAD regime, that changed a lot. 00:12:05.759 -->

00:12:17.759 You can assume that maybe a lot of traffic that would have diminished long-term holder supply in this in this time around could um could not show up on chain and it's just a database change in some custodian. 00:12:17.840 --> 00:12:19.600 That could be one example of that. 00:12:19.840 --> 00:12:31.600 The other example is like if you see uh vaulted supply or long-term holder supply go down, maybe it's because of the the call card uh hack uh a few months ago and so on. 00:12:31.840 --> 00:12:44.720 So just keeping that in mind and you know keeping in mind the first principles that made it metric work or not work at all times is is very important. 00:12:45.039 --> 00:12:45.600 Yeah. 00:12:46.000 --> 00:12:58.159 Yeah, for example, something that we saw, I think it was late last year, November, is the Coinbase migrating uh to a to a new um cold wallet. 00:12:58.399 --> 00:13:01.360 So that was uh that was a I think it was a drawing. 00:13:02.080 --> 00:13:07.679 That was 2018, no, I think like the a big trend that no, and uh also happened again in 2025. 00:13:07.919 --> 00:13:08.080 Okay. 00:13:08.240 --> 00:13:18.080 Uh they they moved uh so they moved like 800,000 bitcoins, and you see that in some terror holder supply just went down uh a lot. 00:13:18.240 --> 00:13:28.320 So you have to adjust for that and some of in some of the metrics, or otherwise you will get in, you know uh not as good as a signal there. 00:13:28.480 --> 00:13:31.440 Uh so yeah, I agree with that completely. 00:13:32.080 --> 00:13:39.679 Um uh another thing, I mean you touched on this uh by uh I mentioned the ETF. 00:13:39.759 --> 00:13:50.559 So uh how how do you think that that uh has uh changed the way you look at on-chain data now that we have that those ETFs? 00:13:50.720 --> 00:14:02.960 Uh well first thing I'll say on that is like a lot of metrics that I was expecting not to work as well are are still kind of working, uh long-term holder supply included. 00:14:03.120 --> 00:14:04.879 Um so that's one. 00:14:05.600 --> 00:14:14.879 Um because you know uh ETFs and even custodians, ETF maybe work on the aggregate as a bulk. 00:14:14.960 --> 00:14:25.600 So if you see see actual outflows from the ETF, that's gonna show up um very very reflexively on long-term molar supply and coin that is destroyed and so on. 00:14:25.840 --> 00:14:34.159 So in that sense, um it still works in the aggregate if you take all ETFs as a single big entity. 00:14:35.039 --> 00:14:47.919 Um but in in terms of like the market dynamics more precisely, so forget about on-chain metrics a little bit, I and focus on market structure and price action. 00:14:48.399 --> 00:14:58.559 I think the biggest um difference between uh this and other cycles is volatility is gonna keep compressing, you know. 00:14:58.720 --> 00:15:14.799 Um most uh investors in this traditional uh cohort are uh long-term focused, but also they like to profit take uh when price has gone up too much without even getting into a uh um parabolic momentum. 00:15:14.960 --> 00:15:16.879 And at the same time, they average in. 00:15:17.039 --> 00:15:19.360 So that's gonna compress volatility over time. 00:15:19.519 --> 00:15:22.720 Um, I think that's just gonna be a nature of it. 00:15:22.960 --> 00:15:47.840 Um in that regard, Bitcoin is gonna look more like um maybe not like gold, and maybe it's still you know fluctuating enough, but it's gonna compress to a point where you know getting alpha even out of it uh is more complicated because you don't have as much um as much a gap between tops and bottoms to to buy and sell. 00:15:48.639 --> 00:15:49.120 Exactly. 00:15:49.360 --> 00:15:59.360 Yeah, one one thing that I did different this time is when I when I look at like large holders of Bitcoin, you know, the typical whale, your whales, right? 00:15:59.840 --> 00:16:04.879 Uh a lot of people like to to follow that cohort of addresses, right? 00:16:04.960 --> 00:16:08.000 To to see what they're doing and accumulating or distributing. 00:16:08.240 --> 00:16:10.799 But with the ETFs, they don't hold. 00:16:10.960 --> 00:16:18.960 I mean, the typical definition of whale is like 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin uh addresses uh hold that. 00:16:19.200 --> 00:16:27.759 But the ETFs don't hold uh, you know, if you just look at addresses, they don't they don't hold like more than 1,000 in in address. 00:16:28.000 --> 00:16:32.240 They tend to hold, I don't know, 300, 600, something like something like that. 00:16:32.320 --> 00:16:39.600 So I what I change is okay, I need to look more into that other cohort of addresses, for example. 00:16:39.759 --> 00:16:46.399 Uh is this something that also you are you know looking at differently now that we have the ETF? 00:16:47.759 --> 00:17:16.000 Uh I honestly um in terms of the size, this the number of coins in a given address, I've never used that metric personally that much because of this, because I think it it it's it there's a lot of noise in there, and there's a lot of uh well, noise in the sense that sometimes it's tough to decide is this a whole exchange or a single actor, which may be like a big whale uh from 2011 or something. 00:17:16.160 --> 00:17:19.680 So it becomes hard to distinguish one from the other. 00:17:20.559 --> 00:17:25.839 And also like gauging the addresses, like I've actually looked at the charts for a long time. 00:17:26.480 --> 00:17:40.720 Um and just looking at what what happens over time with you know addresses with less than one Bitcoin versus addresses with more than 100 Bitcoin, 100 or 100,000. 00:17:40.960 --> 00:17:46.319 I don't see a pattern that to me becomes appealing over time, uh, to be honest. 00:17:46.559 --> 00:18:00.799 Uh for me, the where I've found most value in terms of determining fundamental or economic changes in the Bitcoin network is time of holding. 00:18:01.119 --> 00:18:10.400 Um I have uh so, or the multiple of time of holding times the volume or the number of coins involved in

that that uh duration period. 00:18:10.799 --> 00:18:12.960 Um that I like the most. 00:18:13.039 --> 00:18:22.559 I think it gives a lot more signal um than whatever a whale is doing because you never get the guarantee that a whale is actually smart. 00:18:22.720 --> 00:18:37.920 You know, a whale may be someone that just got lucky and bought early or mined early and was uh technically savvy in the way that it just saved the Bitcoin, but as opposed to being like market savvy and not selling at a bottom, for instance, right? 00:18:38.880 --> 00:18:50.000 So there's some merit to the smart money versus dumb money thesis, but um I haven't seen a clear pattern on in those metrics as of now. 00:18:50.319 --> 00:19:00.880 I I have what we do is you know, we try to filter out some of the noise that you say, like filter out exchanges when we look at this type of uh metrics. 00:19:01.119 --> 00:19:10.000 Um, or like you say, filter out like the time of of like new whales, for example, like new accumulation, something like that. 00:19:10.079 --> 00:19:19.039 Uh and then I don't look at the like the balance per se, um, but look at the growth of of the holdings. 00:19:19.119 --> 00:19:27.200 So I I think that there's more signal in the growth than in just looking at the you know the level of balance or something. 00:19:27.440 --> 00:19:31.119 So yeah, uh something something to go think about. 00:19:31.279 --> 00:19:42.880 But I I do what the message is that it it changed, like the ETF changed the way that you analyze on chain because they they behave differently. 00:19:43.039 --> 00:19:51.440 Um I did quickly want to ask uh David if he places any uh importance on seasonality. 00:19:51.599 --> 00:20:04.559 I I guess you know the last cycle the it did peak in October, and there are some theorists that think you know a year after the peak will the bottom will happen, which would be in just a few months. 00:20:04.640 --> 00:20:10.319 So I'm curious if you like place any importance on seasonality. 00:20:11.599 --> 00:20:13.039 Um honestly, yes. 00:20:13.119 --> 00:20:26.160 Um and and the way I rationalize that is like even if it's you can say it's the four-year cycle, you can say it's um interest rate cycles or or uh something more nuanced like that. 00:20:26.880 --> 00:20:29.119 Uh or even presidential cycles, I've heard. 00:20:29.200 --> 00:20:29.519 Uh-huh. 00:20:29.599 --> 00:20:33.359 So it could be a bunch of stuff or all of the above. 00:20:33.680 --> 00:20:37.519 But so far, to be honest, it has stuck to that. 00:20:37.680 --> 00:20:44.559 Even when people are saying, you know, historically we're top tier, and everyone's saying that therefore it's not gonna happen, and then it happens. 00:20:44.799 --> 00:20:48.160 So it's it's been very consistent um in that sense. 00:20:48.400 --> 00:21:02.160 I think perhaps it's when Bitcoin has been the most consistent, just keep it that rhyme over time, um, roughly from you know plus plus minus one or two months um or so. 00:21:03.440 --> 00:21:07.599 So I think there's some seasonality. 00:21:08.079 --> 00:21:15.359 Maybe it's not related to to having day at all, maybe it is, but um the seasonality so far has stuck there. 00:21:16.000 --> 00:21:24.000 So you always have to allow for um other, you know, exogenous factors changing that over time. 00:21:24.960 --> 00:21:32.240 But until you see the evidence, I I think there's a good case for it, until it stops working at the very least. 00:21:34.000 --> 00:21:35.920 And Julia, do you do you share that? 00:21:36.079 --> 00:21:48.559 Because I guess that would put today's, I guess, this week's price action um a little a little complicated that maybe you know we do have some time to bottom out later in the year, despite some of the reversal signals. 00:21:48.720 --> 00:21:53.920 So I guess some investors might be a little cautious right now given that seasonality. 00:21:54.400 --> 00:21:59.680 Well, that's where you have to factor in all all the M uh uh all the elements. 00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:01.680 And markers in the equation. 00:22:01.759 --> 00:22:03.920 So one is seasonality for sure. 00:22:04.000 --> 00:22:08.559 And from that perspective, I mean it goes even to from where are you measuring? 00:22:08.880 --> 00:22:11.920 Anton sensitivity is a big part of the equation here. 00:22:12.000 --> 00:22:17.519 Are you measuring from last halving day, uh last cycle high, last cycle low? 00:22:17.759 --> 00:22:20.799 Um, which one is it? 00:22:21.200 --> 00:22:34.000 Um honestly, if you say roughly speaking, we are in like a bottoming season when when you have the bear market, then you can just go into other metrics. 00:22:34.160 --> 00:22:58.559 Okay, we had a few markers, and then you wait one seasonality being early for a couple of months and not having reached realized price versus okay, we did have more losses and profits, and um the momentum behind the move was as strong as you know the first big move after FTX, which started the bull the last bull market. 00:22:58.720 --> 00:23:04.799 So you weigh that in and and hedge or position accordingly. 00:23:05.839 --> 00:23:14.559 Yeah, I I don't um think that there's a like a cycle seasonality. 00:23:14.799 --> 00:23:26.960 Yeah, I mean it it has been right, it it has been it has worked like that, but I tend to to look into like David said to the to the data to what are the metrics telling you, right? 00:23:27.119 --> 00:23:38.160 So it may be that we uh uh you know get an another low and in exactly in like in October and and that that will uh be the case again, the seasonality. 00:23:38.559 --> 00:23:43.359 But I mean I I don't do the analysis with that in mind. 00:23:43.599 --> 00:23:54.000 I do the analysis with just the data, and the data tells me you know you know what what is what it is, what what to expect, not not with the seasonality in in mind. 00:23:54.160 --> 00:23:55.279 That's what I what I do. 00:23:55.599 --> 00:23:56.480 I I would agree with

that. 00:23:56.559 --> 00:24:04.240 Like I think um data uh is more important than a season or the expectations of a seasonality. 00:24:04.640 --> 00:24:07.759 Um even if you actually use seasonality. 00:24:07.839 --> 00:24:10.880 Like I think data, regardless of that, is more important. 00:24:14.160 --> 00:24:17.039 Cool, yeah, and then uh yeah, kind of switching topics. 00:24:17.200 --> 00:24:24.799 I think today, I'm glad we got to do this today because I saw that um today was the first quantum resistant Bitcoin transaction. 00:24:24.960 --> 00:24:34.559 Um, not sure if you guys saw that on Twitter, but um, I think it kind of raises the general quantum talk because we have had other guests also um speak on the importance of it. 00:24:34.720 --> 00:24:45.119 So yeah, David, I'm curious your general um kind of view on on Bitcoin and and quantum and how how important is it right now, I guess, in the market. 00:24:46.640 --> 00:24:50.240 Um yeah, I think it's the the most important topic. 00:24:50.319 --> 00:25:14.160 Well, whether even even whether quantum comes soon enough or not, I think regardless of that, since it imposes um a big um risk for Bitcoin, I think it will be the most talked-about topic um in the next five to ten years, or at the very least, until we get like actual post-quantum signatures in the network, and they're highly adopted. 00:25:14.640 --> 00:25:30.720 Um I also think that um there there may be some like quant quantum discount uh on price since perhaps a year ago or so, um, where a lot of people are waiting in that risk factor. 00:25:31.039 --> 00:25:50.640 Um anecdotally, I I've heard a little bit of that, of you know, just people deciding to stay away from the investment because the the the quantum risk, especially taken to the existential level, um, is not worth the the reward. 00:25:51.200 --> 00:25:54.400 Um, so I do think it's uh affecting price enough. 00:25:54.559 --> 00:26:15.519 That being said, for the most part, in my personal opinion, I think it is what what the threat represents now, meaning after Willow in 2024 and after the shorts algorithm optimization by Google and then ECDSA.fail earlier in the year. 00:26:15.759 --> 00:26:21.440 Uh, I think most of that is already priced in and digested by the market. 00:26:23.119 --> 00:26:37.599 That being said, you know, you can have um some innovation either on the hardware or software sites uh in the quantum computing industry that may uh spook the price either on a short-term or long-term basis in the future. 00:26:37.839 --> 00:26:38.960 That could happen for sure. 00:26:39.039 --> 00:26:45.279 But as of now, with the information that the market has distributed, I think it's priced in. 00:26:45.680 --> 00:27:02.319 And apart from that, it it becomes kind of like a futures curve in the sense that you're weighing in whatever incremental information the market receives related to quantum innovation versus the innovation coming from the Bitcoin security side. 00:27:02.640 --> 00:27:14.319 And I think what we saw yesterday, which was kind of like a uh a triple news of it, one, the first post-quantum transaction, me but at a level of it doesn't solve quantum. 00:27:14.480 --> 00:27:32.480 This is just a um fail-safe emergency mechanism where if you can pay actually directly to a miner, you can take your transaction and protect it, permeated against a quantum attack in the in transit to get to a safer, non-reused address, let's say. 00:27:33.119 --> 00:27:38.079 Uh so that's a a great, great initiative and a great first step. 00:27:38.559 --> 00:28:00.400 Um I also think the first shrink, like formal proposal on GitHub of the shrink uh BIP is crucial and very important to get the conversation going on what is the actual signature scheme uh that we're gonna use in the future, whether it's hashes, lattice, one of the two, or a combination of the two. 00:28:00.640 --> 00:28:02.160 That's crucial and important. 00:28:02.400 --> 00:28:13.599 And the third news of Blockstream actually looking into lattice-based cryptography and properly evaluated, evaluating it and giving it its its time and due. 00:28:14.079 --> 00:28:19.839 Um, so you have like triple news over the the last day or so, which are crucial for this. 00:28:20.079 --> 00:28:21.599 I'm very glad to see. 00:28:22.079 --> 00:28:34.640 Um I think what happened is like regardless of what the expectation on one Q day is happening or not, even if it's three to twenty, forty years away. 00:28:35.200 --> 00:28:42.960 Um as long as we're incrementally go working towards a solution without panicking, I think that's the way to go. 00:28:43.519 --> 00:28:53.839 Um and and we'll, you know, whatever however that affects prices just gonna decompress the the discount uh over time. 00:28:54.000 --> 00:28:56.319 So all good news in my opinion. 00:28:57.279 --> 00:29:07.759 So do you think the the the talk on quantum risk, like in terms of actual risk, is it a risk of like some actor actually using quantum to hack Bitcoin? 00:29:07.920 --> 00:29:15.920 Um or is it more of like investor perception of like network security that is more important as opposed to like an actual actor risking? 00:29:16.000 --> 00:29:20.319 Like they want to know that Bitcoin will be quantum proof in the future. 00:29:21.599 --> 00:29:31.039 I think as an investor, especially since uh uh it's you know uh trillions of dollars uh invested in this um not only a Bitcoin but in the whole asset class. 00:29:31.440 --> 00:29:37.920 Um I think it's a very pertinent uh uh question from investors of all sizes. 00:29:38.160 --> 00:29:43.920 Especially because it's um you know a risk that takes it's a two-fold risk. 00:29:44.079 --> 00:29:49.279 One is existential, which is uh short-range attacks on the mempool. 00:29:49.440 --> 00:29:50.960 That's existential. 00:29:51.440 --> 00:29:59.440 But perhaps given the way quantum computing architectures are pro uh are scaling over time, more far ahead in the

future. 00:30:00.319 --> 00:30:17.279 And then the other one is uh the lost or you know, likely the highly dormant likely lost coins, including Satoshi's, um, some estimate have it at uh 1.1 to 2.6 million um coins. 00:30:18.000 --> 00:30:35.200 Um that's not existential, but it's um a big debate in terms of what happens to those coins and also what um um how the attack can be performed over time. 00:30:35.359 --> 00:30:41.200 If it's a slow attack, a fast attack, what's the performance of the quantum computer behind the attack and who's the actor doing it? 00:30:41.440 --> 00:30:45.920 It's either a company in the US or um or the CCP, right? 00:30:46.400 --> 00:31:01.599 So even within that um context, I think the worst case scenario is like worse enough to get you know to to find a solution. 00:31:01.839 --> 00:31:09.279 Um I think it's a real threat, whether it's now or or later, that's up for debate. 00:31:09.440 --> 00:31:17.680 But I think it's it's worth addressing without panicking um as soon as reasonable and possible. 00:31:19.279 --> 00:31:22.160 A question uh about the Satoshi coins. 00:31:22.400 --> 00:31:28.400 I know there have been you know proposals or people talking about you know freezing those coins. 00:31:28.640 --> 00:31:57.200 Uh or I mean I I think I mean I'm curious to know your your uh your opinion on that, or if you have talked to you know investors and and it that is something that they also think about, you know, what to do with those coins that haven't moved in a while, um, or never moved, because it's a potential you know selling pressure, right, for for for investors. 00:31:57.519 --> 00:32:01.200 So what what are you is your opinion on that? 00:32:02.160 --> 00:32:08.880 Oh I've heard everything from investors and and uh just observers and different market actors in the industry. 00:32:09.039 --> 00:32:23.599 I think it's it will be the most contentious, contentious uh debate uh in the near future, perhaps even more contentious than what signature scheme we should use, um, which will be another one for sure. 00:32:23.839 --> 00:32:27.039 Um yeah, it's a big trade-off. 00:32:27.279 --> 00:32:43.599 Um even in ARC, like Brett, our chief features will tell you like we we we need to let those coins be and and stick to whatever property rights in embedded in the network, and that's it. 00:32:44.160 --> 00:32:58.720 Uh my personal opinion uh would be I don't know, I think an hourglass solution then then redistributes that supply into the security budget could be more strategic and and and rewarding in the long term. 00:32:59.200 --> 00:33:08.480 Um hourglass solution makes more sense with some time lock, incremental time locks, um as opposed to just freezing them up, right? 00:33:09.519 --> 00:33:15.039 Um I think there's uh a good case for the salvage solution from Nick Carter. 00:33:15.200 --> 00:33:17.200 That's also interesting to me. 00:33:17.599 --> 00:33:20.480 Um because what's that solution? 00:33:20.640 --> 00:33:21.039 Sorry? 00:33:21.359 --> 00:33:28.720 The salvage solution, uh uh there's a few details on that, and he has a short story, like a fiction, fictional short story on it. 00:33:28.880 --> 00:34:01.200 But basically the the idea is that you have an off-chain legal recourse where the US government with some quantum one or several quantum companies takes that those coins into escrow, uh, allows the legal system to the legal recurse to give um the coins to uh approved owner if the approved owner shops shows up in any given time. 00:34:01.440 --> 00:34:07.519 Otherwise, those coins stay in the uh in the US government um as part of the strategic reserve. 00:34:07.759 --> 00:34:12.159 And maybe there's some hourglass into that uh that uh time horizon. 00:34:12.239 --> 00:34:27.360 So let's say after 20 years of you know, or a lifetime or something uh of no um you know, no redemption or reclamation of the funds, um, the US government uh is free to sell or keep or whatever. 00:34:27.599 --> 00:34:54.239 But it's pretty much an off-chain solution that pretty much gauges the incentive between US government, quantum companies that you know want the marketing and maybe some percentage of the uh of the coins and so on, uh while keeping the property rights at the protocol level, at the network level intact, but also allowing weakers for the right owners of those coins to claim them if they want to. 00:34:54.960 --> 00:35:02.079 And it's offshore, but you know, in Bitcoin you have it's on off-chain, but in Bitcoin you have to account for the whole game theory, right? 00:35:02.239 --> 00:35:03.119 Every single time. 00:35:03.360 --> 00:35:09.119 It's not like the cleanliness of Bitcoin is not, oh, if it didn't happen on chain, it didn't happen. 00:35:09.280 --> 00:35:17.440 No, you have to to see what's actually happening in reality, like the whole equation, including the legal system and and everything, no? 00:35:17.760 --> 00:35:26.000 So that may be a a realistic solution without foregoing a lot of the you know sacredness of the property rights in Bitcoin. 00:35:27.360 --> 00:35:31.599 And um yeah, we'll see what happens. 00:35:32.719 --> 00:35:36.480 But Satoshi is not gonna claim them. 00:35:38.719 --> 00:35:40.639 I I don't expect Satoshi to claim them. 00:35:40.719 --> 00:35:42.800 I I think those points are are lost. 00:35:42.960 --> 00:35:45.119 Uh that's my personal opinion. 00:35:45.440 --> 00:35:47.280 But yeah, we'll see what happens. 00:35:47.519 --> 00:35:48.159 Yeah. 00:35:50.239 --> 00:35:57.519 And uh yeah, I also wanted to ask um generally about macro and how it fits into your kind of investment thesis. 00:35:57.760 --> 00:36:09.599 There's always, I mean, there's always talks on you know, either viewing crypto in a vacuum or viewing it as kind of a a larger part of the broader market or or equities or or tech markets. 00:36:09.760 --> 00:36:18.800 So I'm curious how you kind of factor in all the macro data in other traditional markets

in into crypto, or if you view it kind of in isolation. 00:36:19.280 --> 00:36:21.280 Uh both, uh a little both, to be honest. 00:36:21.360 --> 00:36:33.679 Uh, I mean, we have a weekly discussion here here at Arc with Kathy every single time um on macro uh and speak broadly about not only Bitcoin, of course, but the whole equity space. 00:36:34.159 --> 00:36:40.880 Um you know, our assets are are um to some extent highly highly correlated or correlated with each other. 00:36:41.039 --> 00:36:42.559 Um, we're risk on. 00:36:43.199 --> 00:36:45.760 So it does factor in. 00:36:47.280 --> 00:37:01.119 My role within that a little bit is isolating that and sticking to uh the middle point, what I want to call the middle point between the macro and the final price, or between macro and technicals, which is on-chain, right? 00:37:01.199 --> 00:37:22.639 Like basically you can see that whatever decisions are being driven uh from investors based on the macro will show up in the on-chain uh space before it hits price, and that's you know part of greatly my contribution to the space and and the company. 00:37:22.880 --> 00:37:26.880 Um, so both you can make make the case for both. 00:37:31.039 --> 00:37:42.239 Yeah, I also it's really interesting what you say there that you know investors may be acting, but it it that it reflects on chain, right? 00:37:42.320 --> 00:37:43.679 And then on the price. 00:37:43.840 --> 00:37:45.760 So that's is is that correct? 00:37:45.920 --> 00:37:53.920 What I uh yeah, yeah, basically uh the claim is there's enough, um it's not random what happens on chain. 00:37:54.079 --> 00:38:13.760 Uh and you see enough of a signal, especially when you clear out the noise, like you know, um there's enough of a signal to to get an estimate of you know if there's high holding behaviors, strong hands versus um a lot of profit taking and selling activity. 00:38:14.159 --> 00:38:26.800 Very, very few first principles that allow you to get a sense of okay, uh directionally there may be uh more upside versus downside here or the or the other way around. 00:38:27.440 --> 00:38:41.920 I think that that you know that way of thought thinking uh it helped me a lot to you know spec the bear market in 2026. 00:38:42.079 --> 00:38:54.880 Like I see an on-chain and not a lot of people were thinking, you know, on the macro side, because the macro side was you know bullish, uh it was constructive, right? 00:38:54.960 --> 00:39:06.159 But I was just of course, because we what we do here in cryptocoin, I was looking at the on-chain and I was not not seeing that bullish uh 2026, right? 00:39:06.320 --> 00:39:14.719 So um I I don't know if how I was there on on Mark it was a similar analysis for 2026. 00:39:15.920 --> 00:39:17.440 2026. 00:39:17.760 --> 00:39:22.239 Um yeah, um uh agree, agree on that. 00:39:22.320 --> 00:39:32.400 Uh and even like sometimes uh because you sometimes you you decouple in terms of correlation and you go from being highly correlated with SP and then go going back to golf. 00:39:32.639 --> 00:39:49.920 It's part of the value proposition of Bitcoin so far that you know correlation is not as sticky with other assets as one one may think, even though broadly speaking, I don't know uh uh sufficiently enough time horizon, you can say it's a risk on asset for now, but that may change. 00:39:50.159 --> 00:39:57.920 Um, yeah, you you have to account for those little intricacies of Bitcoin where you know the correlate. 00:39:58.320 --> 00:40:05.119 Yeah, the Aunchi shows you another story, or uh at least another version of of the macro narrative at the time. 00:40:05.440 --> 00:40:06.079 Yeah. 00:40:07.599 --> 00:40:18.719 Yeah, that that actually leads me into, I guess, my favorite question of all the uh each podcast is um what advice you would give um to like a new a new investor just joining crypto? 00:40:18.960 --> 00:40:34.000 Because I think there there is a lot of talk about um on-chain data, the on-chain data that used to work in the hit in the past, and now you have to look at differently, and then you have macro and normal markets, and I think it gets quite confusing on what to actually focus on. 00:40:34.159 --> 00:40:40.239 So I'm curious if you had to like give advice on a framework for a new investor, what what would you what would you tell them? 00:40:40.800 --> 00:40:45.519 Oh take take your time, um do your own research. 00:40:46.079 --> 00:41:04.960 Um if you want to uh more specifically on the on-chain side, um take your time in digesting the metrics that actually work for you and that give you the information that that works with your trading style and your time horizon and risk profile. 00:41:05.599 --> 00:41:10.719 And um yeah, um beware of scammers. 00:41:10.880 --> 00:41:14.800 We don't have as much of them anymore, but you know, they're still out there. 00:41:15.199 --> 00:41:20.079 And um yeah, do what works for you and take your time. 00:41:20.239 --> 00:41:20.800 Don't rush it. 00:41:21.119 --> 00:41:23.119 Be aware of influencers, also. 00:41:23.440 --> 00:41:24.159 What's that? 00:41:24.559 --> 00:41:26.719 We be aware of influencers. 00:41:27.679 --> 00:41:36.159 I think it depends on the influencer, uh but yeah, just do your own research and have your own calls, uh have your own conviction. 00:41:36.320 --> 00:41:37.920 That's always healthy. 00:41:39.119 --> 00:41:48.800 Yeah, and Julio, I think um some of the work we do at CryptoQuant, we um like compiling metrics to make it to simplify things. 00:41:48.960 --> 00:41:53.519 So I think Julio's done a decent amount of work in like kind of simplifying the approach as well. 00:41:53.679 --> 00:42:01.119 Um, so I don't know if you have any kind of themes that you you follow that David might be able to uh have his take on. 00:42:02.159 --> 00:42:04.480 You mean on the for on the data side? 00:42:04.800 --> 00:42:07.519 Yeah, on the data side, metric side or technical side. 00:42:07.920 -->

00:42:08.480 Yeah. 00:42:08.800 --> 00:42:20.320 One thing that I you know over I would say over the past two years we focus more on is to try to estimate the demand for Bitcoin. 00:42:20.400 --> 00:42:38.639 I mean a lot of the metrics are supply, you know, looking at supply, looking at the distribution of supply by age, by value, by um, you know, different different kinds of metrics, but I I always try to estimate the demand side. 00:42:38.880 --> 00:42:45.599 Well, okay, you know, um long-term harmholders are um you know are they're selling, right? 00:42:46.480 --> 00:42:52.719 We saw a lot of selling in in 2025, but sometimes that selling was absorbed by demand because there was demand. 00:42:52.880 --> 00:42:58.159 And by the end of 2025, we saw that selling and it wasn't absorbed. 00:42:58.320 --> 00:43:00.559 It was absorbed, but not at lower prices, right? 00:43:00.639 --> 00:43:04.800 Because there wasn't as much demand or or much growth on Bitcoin demand. 00:43:04.960 --> 00:43:15.920 So that's that's that's the metric that I tried to been trying to build more of that by estimating the demand or the demand growth. 00:43:16.159 --> 00:43:23.519 And not with David, uh is something that is you also uh try to do is like estimate the demand for Bitcoin. 00:43:23.679 --> 00:43:28.239 Of course, we have ETFs and we can see that also on the ETFs purchases. 00:43:28.639 --> 00:43:36.719 But I'm curious if you if you are doing or have done something in that in that side, or how you how do you see it? 00:43:37.599 --> 00:43:39.440 That's a good question, actually. 00:43:39.599 --> 00:43:41.760 Um and it's very hard to do. 00:43:42.639 --> 00:43:53.519 In fact, like if you have an actual metric that you know clearly captures demand, like pure actionable live demand at any given moment, it it's it would be fun to see. 00:43:54.719 --> 00:44:09.360 The the main reason why it's hard to do is because the only way you Can guarantee or like confirm scientifically, let's say, or formally, demand is by to some extent by holding period. 00:44:09.760 --> 00:44:23.119 Because even if you have what okay, you had a lot of volume at an uh let's say you're there's a market and the marketing is bottoming out or looks like bottoming out, and a lot of people buy there. 00:44:25.119 --> 00:44:34.800 The way you know retroactively that that was the bottom is because okay, the people who bought at those prices, maybe in bulk, didn't sell after. 00:44:34.960 --> 00:44:37.360 So they were like, okay, I'm gonna be long term. 00:44:37.519 --> 00:44:51.599 And how do you guarantee on chain that someone was long term is by just measuring and measuring that the coin is not moving over five, five months, a year, two years, whatever that is, right? 00:44:52.719 --> 00:45:03.360 Otherwise, it could be as simple as you know, the a market actor decides to buy the bottom and he says, or he or she says, Hey, I'm gonna be long-term, and then panics after three months and just dumps everything. 00:45:04.000 --> 00:45:04.639 Yeah. 00:45:05.280 --> 00:45:14.559 The only way to gauge that demand is like wait a little bit and say, okay, finally we have more voltage supply, long-term supply, whatever you want to say. 00:45:14.639 --> 00:45:40.079 Like we have strong hands in the market that are just not selling relative to local corrections, uh, a new all-time high, a return to a break-even, a perceived breakeven, if it's the yearly SMA or the 200-day SMA or whatever that is, um, and don't get spooked by it and want to hold it, that's like the best guarantee uh in that sense. 00:45:41.119 --> 00:45:49.119 Otherwise, you can make inferences around when demand activates, which is one is very clearly mean reversion, right? 00:45:50.559 --> 00:46:18.480 Uh or losses being greater than profits and so on, like capitulation in the sense that for the most part, you can correlate from first principles that if there's panic, pain, could great losses in the market, and the market is still liquid enough, which for Bitcoin is has been increasingly the case, you're gonna have buyers on the other side absorbing that seller exhaustion, right? 00:46:19.199 --> 00:46:27.280 So you can have like a few inferences, but like actually confirm that hey, this guy is just buying and not selling in two years, right? 00:46:28.480 --> 00:46:29.920 Scientifically, you never know. 00:46:30.000 --> 00:46:36.639 Uh the guy may panic or get an illness or get a kid or something, and that may change over time. 00:46:36.880 --> 00:46:54.320 So I think holding period is still sticky, and the rest is just very highly educated guesses on inference, where you get mean reversion or great losses and capitulation and and correlate that to you know um demand periods in the market, not only in Bitcoin, but every single market. 00:46:55.599 --> 00:46:58.159 Yeah, we have some metrics on that on the man. 00:46:58.320 --> 00:47:01.920 I'll I can share it with you uh uh later. 00:47:02.000 --> 00:47:05.760 Uh one is apparent demand, which is the one that I use a lot. 00:47:05.920 --> 00:47:19.199 Uh but there I I use uh because before uh uh working on Bitcoin, I was working on as a commodity analyst commodity researcher, and we use that term apparent demand to estimate demand. 00:47:19.280 --> 00:47:28.880 And have you what you said is really true, like estimating demand is really hard because you uh, for instance, we you can't observe demand directly. 00:47:29.039 --> 00:47:32.079 Um, you can observe production, for example, for commodities. 00:47:32.159 --> 00:47:38.559 I'm talking you can observe really clearly production or you can observe inventories, movement in inventories. 00:47:38.719 --> 00:47:49.039 It's really clear there's a lot of data on that, but there's not a lot of data of demand, and and it's it's uh it's always indirect observation of demand, not not direct observation. 00:47:49.280 --> 00:47:58.719 But using production and inventory, we estimated that

demand, and what we call it is apparent because you don't uh observe it directly, so it's apparent demand. 00:47:58.880 --> 00:48:05.840 So I did a little bit of that for Bitcoin, um, you know, using uh um inventories. 00:48:06.000 --> 00:48:10.559 So I I come up with some definition of Bitcoin inventories, right? 00:48:10.800 --> 00:48:16.800 And then production is just the miners, and then but the change is important, the change in the inventory. 00:48:17.199 --> 00:48:19.519 That's how a way to indirectly estimate demand. 00:48:19.599 --> 00:48:27.440 And I mean, and it's really has been really uh correlated with the the price action and uh the returns of Bitcoin. 00:48:27.519 --> 00:48:33.440 So I use it a lot uh for when I want to look at you know demand growth. 00:48:33.599 --> 00:48:39.599 Uh in and yeah, and on on periods of bull market, you see that demand is growing. 00:48:39.679 --> 00:48:55.280 And then in the periods of bear market, it's it's contracting, or even not in the bear market, but even in uh at the at the end of the bull market, even we are we were at 100k, um it was already contracting, like demand was already contracting. 00:48:55.360 --> 00:49:02.400 So uh yeah, it's a it's uh some of the metric that I've been working on is more about demand, the demand side. 00:49:02.719 --> 00:49:04.159 Yeah, please send send it over. 00:49:04.320 --> 00:49:06.320 Sounds super sure, sure. 00:49:07.360 --> 00:49:14.960 Yeah, uh a final topic I wanted uh cover on was actually kind of I guess it kind of price price targeting. 00:49:15.119 --> 00:49:25.280 Um I think when the bull market starts, like newer investors will see these sort of reports either from institutions or or influencers and see these price targets. 00:49:25.440 --> 00:49:31.360 Um, and they're often pretty pretty drawn to them in terms of like I'll sell when it hits this. 00:49:31.440 --> 00:49:44.559 Uh, but I'm curious from like an institutional side, when you look at at targets, like what's your approach, or is it sort of just a nice like fundamental process to gauge where an investment might go? 00:49:44.639 --> 00:49:48.000 Like, how attached are you to like price targets in general? 00:49:48.400 --> 00:49:58.480 Uh well we we do have um uh a price uh estimate uh for 2030 going into 2021 and so on. 00:49:58.960 --> 00:50:04.559 Um and you can go to our website to to to take a look. 00:50:04.880 --> 00:50:09.760 But that's very long term in in the sense that and it's built very fundamentally. 00:50:10.000 --> 00:50:46.320 It's basically gauging the total addressable markets of different like utilities, quote unquote, or you know, um value accruals that Bitcoin can uh take over time from different market sectors, uh from you know, even gold investors, nation states, treasury companies, um, native on-chain activity on Bitcoin, um and so on and so forth, and then just trying to you know give assumptions on penetration rate of those times and you know aggregated that into a projected market cap and so on. 00:50:46.480 --> 00:51:02.239 So we have uh some analysis on that, and that stakes you know more in the in the long-term horizon, and and we just gauge current price action and event and news events, you know, like quantum against that over time and and see see how it develops. 00:51:02.559 --> 00:51:06.079 Um so that's on our website if you want to take a look. 00:51:06.159 --> 00:51:08.559 And um yep. 00:51:10.880 --> 00:51:13.360 And Julio, I'm curious to your your take on that. 00:51:13.519 --> 00:51:24.960 I think you're more of like a trend following system, um, as opposed to yeah I mean we we specifically don't say price targets, right? 00:51:25.360 --> 00:51:34.800 But it's more about looking at, you know, if you look at the realized price and then and there's then there's bands, you know, above that. 00:51:35.280 --> 00:51:53.360 And so you can have some reference price of like, okay, if we really enter into a bull market and have this bull run, you can expect this price as a you know a good, uh realistic uh expectation in you know the the following bull market. 00:51:53.679 --> 00:52:03.280 So I tend to do that more than saying, okay, my my prediction is this one for a specific year or whatever. 00:52:03.599 --> 00:52:16.480 So I it's more about that, about the you know, the possibility of where where is the like the realistic expectation based on you know the on-chain data realized prices or uh short-term holder realized price or something like that. 00:52:16.559 --> 00:52:17.840 So yeah. 00:52:18.000 --> 00:52:29.360 Um I I don't remember exactly where like I don't want to say my expectations too early in the world market, but you know, that that's that's the process, that's more of the process. 00:52:32.400 --> 00:52:33.119 Great, thanks. 00:52:33.199 --> 00:52:35.760 Yeah, I think that was um all the topics I wanted to cover. 00:52:35.840 --> 00:52:45.519 I think um we covered a lot, and no doubt it's uh an exciting time in the market, so it's gonna be fun to look back at this pod and see see where things go. 00:52:45.599 --> 00:52:48.239 But David, thank you so much for coming on and Julio. 00:52:48.480 --> 00:52:49.199 Thanks again.