رونوشت 🔗
WEBVTT
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The market meltdown is happening now and bitcoin may be
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at the center of all of this today we'll break
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it down it's going to reveal some things that hopefully
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will get us down to a bottom before we do
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And you're going to have to start tax planning soon.
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And IRAs are one of the diversification things that you
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should be doing to set yourself up for success. Let's
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go ahead and get started. I want to lead off
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with this tweet right here. And it is in reference
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to the most bearish signal that could be facing Bitcoin
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right now. That, of course, is the MSCI offering or
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may officially delete strategy master, MSTR. The world's biggest Bitcoin
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holder could lose its spot. And what this means is
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trillions of dollars from big investment funds now automatically flow
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to these lists. This means if you're not on the list,
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trillions of dollars are not pointed at you. Further into this,
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I think it really puts a lot of pressure on
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the possibility of what strategy is going to do in
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the future. How are they going to deal with this?
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If it does happen, the funds will have to sell 13,
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the fund will have to sell 13 million in MicroStrategy
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shares by November 30th. So we're talking a couple of
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weeks here. And JP Morgan is now saying that its
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selling could reach up to 2.8 billion. plus another $ 8. 8
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billion if another big
Load full transcript
stock list follows the MSCI. So
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this could become a forced selling event for MicroStrategy. And
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I think the possibility of this is very high. Very high.
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We'll know tonight whether or not this takes place. I
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think it definitely is, in my opinion, it's probably a
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90-plus percentage of happening. I want to go to a
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clip real quick to get into this because this will
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go into a little bit about Saylor. and the disappointment
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of the MSCI. Take a look.
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Do you expect to be excluded? I don't have any
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particular expectation right now.
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But would you be happy if you were included?
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I think it would be good for them and good
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for the industry if they drop their initiative, but, you know,
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that's above my pay grade.
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Are you an operating business?
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Because insurance companies and banks, it's a silly notion because
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insurance companies and banks have assets and they're operating businesses
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and If MSCI decided that insurance company financial assets were
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non-operating or the bank's assets were non-operating, then they would
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exclude every insurance company, every bank, and half the oil
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and gas businesses from the index. But insurance companies, to be.
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Fair, provide a service other than accumulating assets in the
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case of making a payout.
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Any finance company is an operating company. You have to
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do things with the capital. The credit is the product.
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And we've found a way to create the world's best
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credit and do it with the world's best capital. So
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we are an operating company.
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All right. So you can see Saylor a little bit
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defeated there and definitely a pushback there to what's happening,
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I think, from the market in general. And that is
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the challenge to whether or not they are an operating company.
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All right, so where could Saylor go? Well, one area
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that could transform them is this right here. And he
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tweeted about this, that Bitcoin is digital capital. Strategy transforms
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it into digital credit and digital equity. That means he
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could bring Stretch and Master on-chain via these capital markets.
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And of course, that means OKExice could be the place
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where they start. Now, remember, OKExice does have some defections
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of other tokenized securities that are not going there. And
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it is going to be one of the first ones
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out of the block. So there could be some benefits
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to being first. Sailor could be at the right place
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at the right time, especially with the fall off here
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on the MSCI. I don't know. I'm still mixed on
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how this may play out, where the volume is going
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to trend once you start to see more and more. Remember,
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this is very early on in tokenized securities. And I
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think this is not yet one And whoever the winner is,
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is going to be based on volume. So watch that
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very closely. Other news happening in Bitcoin right now. Bitcoin
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Core disclosed three patch security flaws, including a high severity
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mining bug. Now, the timing is interesting for this. For
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all of these flaws that occurred, the timing of Fable
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and Anthropix release is lined up directly at this. So
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what is going on here? Why aren't we seeing this
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stuff out in front of these models, which are advancing
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the possibility of any kind of vectors for Bitcoin? And
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that's the concern I have right now, is with AI
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continuing to advance at the pace it is, and still
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Bitcoin being somewhat behind the eight ball. So let's see
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how it goes from here. Other things that are happening
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right now, you've got Tom Lee reporting a net loss
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of $ 6. 3 billion. That's with a B, guys. That's for
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the fiscal year, August 31st. And again, remember, ETH has
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been taking a big pounding. Lee has been defending as
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much as he can. I think he is also looking
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at whether or not this is the bottom of this market. Remember,
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ETH trading at around two grand. And I
think this
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is the challenge that everybody's faced with right now. We
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don't know if the bottom is in, even though Tom
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Lee said this week he thinks the bottom is in.
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I still think we may see another slip. on both
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Bitcoin and ETH going forward. You have Ripple in the news,
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and not for a good thing. You've got ex-CTO David
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Swartz selling almost all of his Ripple XRP holdings from
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$ 26 million to $ 3 million, absolutely plummeted from $ 1, 500 Bitcoin
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to $ 1, and then sold all of his ETH from $ 40, 000
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ETH to $ 6. So this was a massive unveiling. And
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I think the issue here right now, good for him
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because that's about a quarter of a billion dollars right now,
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even at today's prices from where he locked in at.
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So I don't know if this is good. I think
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this is bad for the markets in general because does
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this mean that they think the market is going lower
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or do they feel like, nope, this is just a
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time where I need to take profits. I've been holding
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for this long time and now is the day. All
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of this, and if you look at the market right here,
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I'll just go over to XRP.com. There's XRP defending right
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at 105. We've seen this before around the $ 1 point,
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and it has been able to hold this position. Last
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time we saw that was in August at $ 1 held,
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jumped back up to around $ 1.
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50.
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We saw the high come in right there in September
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at around 165, and then a pullback off of that
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high right now. If you look at it, that's pulling
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back 36%. right now on XRP. Solana kind of in
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the same boat from its high, also pushing back, right
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now trading at 84, holding at about 32% down. So
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you can kind of see the market's still in a
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definite downturn. I think this is still yet to be
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determined as to whether the market is going to be
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able to deal with all these macro headwinds that
are
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coming our way. Speaking of that, you got Solana, which
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is now getting A good thing happening, and that, of course,
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is the privacy component. Solana got shielded balances. Helios now
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shipped their privacy rings on mainnet. This was a big deal.
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We just had Vibu on yesterday. Go watch that video
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because it was a good one about what's going on
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in a good way for Solana. But Zcash, Near, other
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confidential accounts now potentially getting hit on that. If you
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take a look at one of the biggest holders out there,
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that is Grayscale. Here's Zach Pendle talking about it. However,
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what he's targeting here is the Zcash developer community, which
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has momentum. And if you look at the chart, you
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can kind of see developers are going up. Problem is
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price is going down. That's the real question is, can
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it hold? If you look at the Zcash chart right now,
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we are down 41% from its high at around 1600.
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So I don't know if this is something that I
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would continue to look at, especially with the privacy advancements
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that we've seen both with Solana and I think more
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coming on some other chains that will present. This is
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just an evolution of how blockchains are going to be built.
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Privacy is going to be a thing. Will Zcash be
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one of the players? I think yes. Are they going
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to be one of the players at over $ 1, 000? That's
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the real question mark that I think a lot of
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people have to answer. Other things I want to hit on,
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of course, have to be anthropic. And this was an
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interesting post by Bull Theory. And the statement is simple.
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This is the most dangerous deal in the AI boom
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right now. If you look at some of the things
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that are happening, why it's most dangerous, first, the sales
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are not as real as they look. And the company
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lends its customer the money to pay its bills. That's NVIDIA.
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Part of its revenue is just to own the cash
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coming back. I don't even know if another company could
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do this. where it's a circle jerk of money coming
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in to create product, which gets back out in the
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form of loans against it. So it's an issue right now.
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Anthropic alone owes $ 161 billion. That's a billion, guys, on
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its equipment. Third, Anthropic does not have the revenue right now.
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Even though we saw big revenue moves, Getting to $ 161 billion,
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because remember, your equipment is not stopping in terms of
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the expenditure. But right now, it made $ 16. 9 billion last quarter,
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but it has committed $ 895 billion to compute. This is
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a big deal because lenders could get left holding all
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that equipment and the bag. Remember, not too long ago,
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there was a couple of banks that were starting to
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put their loans out for repurchase. on a lot of
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these data centers and also on a lot of these
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chips that were being purchased by all these companies. So
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watch that because that could be a catalyst that could
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signal some things going in. Let's take a look at
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this tweet right here, just in. Anthropic says, contract with
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SpaceX will not be extended beyond the middle of next year. Now,
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a couple of things are happening. Remember SpaceX, one of
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the hyperscalers, you've got MetaGoogle, both on the other receiving
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end of this. I think this is just a redressing
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of spot compute and token pricing that eventually is going
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to go to market. And I think this might be
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a short-term issue because right now, Anthropic is going to
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be just a shopper out there to the best hyperscaler
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they can find. MetaGoogle wins on this in the short time.
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The real question is, is what happens when they need
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those tokens for their own development? That is the question
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I think everybody's going to be asking as we continue
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to see AI pressures coming in from Congress that could
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slow down all of this in terms of the development
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of these data centers. So keep an eye on all this. Now,
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what does that mean for the stock? It could mean
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something like this right here. Open interest across Anthropic right now,
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300 million on hyperliquid. This is surpassing crazy numbers from
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IPOs we've seen in the past. And the real question is,
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does it make the $ 2 trillion mark? I am surprised
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that this is continuing to grow at the rate in
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which it is growing. But I think what's happening right
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now is the market is hungry for for a winner.
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And this is the only game in town. So does
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it hold through and get up to above 1.5 trillion
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to go public? This would be a huge issue, but
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I am myself would be staying away from this one
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only in the sense that I feel like this is
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going to go up and completely redress or retrace just
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like what we saw with SpaceX. Same kind of situation.
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That's my belief. Now, remember, they also control a lot
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of the original stock, so not as much as being
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pushed back into the market, which also makes me concerned
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about how that ends up in release of certain shares
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as we start to see this develop out over the
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next few months. So keep an eye on Anthropic, a
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big trade for sure. Let's go over to the Fed.
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And right here, We have an anticipation now of December
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getting a 50 basis point hike in December. This could
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be the turning point for risk assets. And what I
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mean by that is that for obvious reasons, if we
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see this kind of move on the Fed, we will
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start to see issues breaking within the macro environment in
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a very big way. One silver lining that this inflation
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surprise could partly reflect, and I kind of agree with this,
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temporary spike in oil prices, which we're seeing. And then
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also that kind of aligns with what's happening with Bitcoin
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right now. Slightly up right now as we're trading. What
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are we trading at? 74.3. But I still think underlying
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inflation is still the issue because it stays. I think
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it still will be in check overall. That's the concern
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right now. I have, and it is a macro headwind
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because I'm still unsure not only how this transition is
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going to take place for the Dems, what are they
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going to be doing, but also just in general, how
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the U.S. economy is going to hold up around all
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of this, because we have not seen the end of
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this war. Now, if we get a war ending, that
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is a massive bullish signal going into the markets, and
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I think that would trigger a lot of activity. I
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want to go to a clip real quick. This gets
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into the hike in December, if it occurs, and why
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it might be a mistake. Take a look.
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50 basis points is on the table. I think, you know, Sri, JP,
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if the Fed does anything this year, I think it
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is definitely misaligned with actually where we stand as a
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domestic US economy right now.
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And really, all of the growth that you've seen from
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a manufacturing perspective here in the United States. has been
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AI adjacent. But yet, if you take everything else out
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of that picture that's not AI related, you're actually seeing
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some pretty strong compression in the numbers and the growth
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on that side of things. So obviously, manufacturing is very
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interest rate sensitive. And I think if the Fed really
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looks at that commentary, and obviously, a lot of the
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stuff that came out of Washington DC just last week
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with the Dem sweeping the Congress, really, as a matter
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of fact, I think the Fed should be on hold
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right now. And I think some type of hike could
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put the U.S. into a substantially slowing growth economy much
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more than what we would expect.
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That is my concern as well, is a slow growth economy.
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When we start to see slowdown in AI, which will happen,
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I think, in 27, late 27 and 2028, that changes
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the dynamic for how the next presidency is going to
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be run. And I think right now you're dealing with
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so much macro headwinds, not just here in the U.S.,
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but globally, that could affect markets in a very, very
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big way. Now, one thing that could possibly divert some
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of that is activity of being able to trade on
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these markets 24-7. And you're going to be able to
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do that now with OKEx tokenized securities venue. Now you'll
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be able to do this 24-7 on November 23rd. So
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over the Thanksgiving holiday, people are going to be able
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to go out there and trade on stocks. So there
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you go, guys. You asked for it. It's now here.
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One last thing I want to hit on, and this
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is crazy, and that is the statement that Besson confronted
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Howard Lutnick over the failure to blacklist Megaspeed. If you
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guys don't know, Megaspeed is the company that the Chinese
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alleged Chinese spy that was involved with, allegedly involved with,
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Jensen Wong. And what they were trying to do was
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they were already on a national security warning list. And apparently,
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Lutnick cleared this. So you've got Lutnick clearing what appears
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to be national security warning companies that clearly have ties
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to the CCP. This gets so bad in terms of
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the amount of grift that we are seeing out of
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this administration right now. I am not happy about these things.
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And I don't think we've seen the end of it.
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I think this is just the beginning of So stay
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tuned for all of that. If you like this video,
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hit like and subscribe, drop a comment down below and
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also join our free private member group. The link is
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