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OpenAI dropped a paper on 377 families of open math problems and within a day the timeline decided AI was about to break cryptography. Justin Drake told Ethereum holders to go "bunker mode." Matthew Green said we might lose public-key crypto, full stop. Tyler separates Q-Day from a classical break and explains why the real exposure is address reuse, not the curve. Then the harder question: if a lab actually found it, would they tell anyone? Chris walks through Dankrad Feist's take that the internet just goes back to cleartext (Gmail had no TLS until ~2010), and the three of us rank what we'd delete first: browser history, bank logins, or the Bitcoin that would be worth half a cigarette. Open USD is live at $700M issued, and the yield goes to partners, not holders. Chris flags the suspect wallets behind Tempo's $2B. The Hawley/Murphy bill makes the "operator" of an AI agent liable, and the Roman Storm precedent says tokens flowing back and forth may not count as speech. Tyler takes it to the 90s crypto wars and the feudal estate of Salesforce. Jackson's Instinct booked him a tennis tournament every week in six hours; someone else's posted their bank history to work Slack. Perp of Fortune: Tyler's 15-minute coin flips vs the OG perp, with a live dashboard, start to finish.
The cryptography scare is at 7:55. Chapters: Cold open (0:00) · Welcome back, all three of us (0:49) · Perp of Fortune: 15-minute coin flips vs the OG perp (1:38) · The little man in the computer shorted Circle (6:03) · Did OpenAI's math drop just threaten cryptography? (7:55) · Justin Drake says go bunker mode (9:08) · Q-Day vs a classical break (14:38) · Matthew Green and the FUD contagion (17:47) · If a lab found it, would they tell us? (19:26) · How do you responsibly disclose a broken curve? (22:45) · The internet goes back to cleartext (24:06) · Open kimono, nude beach, browser history (25:16) · Perp halftime (28:43) · Open USD is live: $700M issued (30:06) · Tempo's $2B of suspect volume (32:51) · The Hawley/Murphy bill: who's liable for your agent? (36:15) · Open weights, speech, and Roman Storm (40:30) · How crypto got legalized (48:23) · The cop model and the 90s crypto wars (49:46) · Death of IP, death of owning software (51:11) · Instinct update: a tennis tournament every week (54:07) · The agent that posted a bank history to Slack (57:26) · Perp of Fortune: final numbers (1:00:08)
Recorded fully remote, three cameras, one dashboard. Our opinions are our own, not our employers'. NOT financial advice; Perp of Fortune is a small real-money account we run for entertainment. Glossary: 15-minute markets = prediction-market contracts that resolve every 15 minutes on whether bitcoin went up or down. Q-Day = the hypothetical day a quantum computer can break today's public-key cryptography; still orders of magnitude short on qubits. Classical break = a mathematical shortcut that breaks a curve on ordinary hardware. Bunker mode = Justin Drake's advice to rotate coins to addresses whose public key has never been revealed. Address reuse = spending from an address exposes its public key; Bitcoin wallets rotate, Ethereum reuses by default. Cleartext = unencrypted traffic; most of the internet ran that way until the 2010s. Open USD = a new bank-backed stablecoin, $700M issued, yield paid to partner banks, not holders. Tempo = a payments chain reporting $2B of stablecoin volume from a handful of suspect wallets. Hawley/Murphy bill = October 1 Senate bill on AI agent accountability; the "operator" carries liability. Roman Storm = Tornado Cash developer convicted on a money-transmitter theory for publishing code. Crypto wars = the 1990s fight over whether encryption counted as a munition. Instinct = a consumer AI agent that reads your email and calendar and acts for you.
Subscribe for next week: Tyler's rebuilt Perp of Fortune goes live, does OpenAI restart training, and does Instinct buy itself a GPU farm?
