رونوشت 🔗
WEBVTT
1
00:00:01.010 --> 00:00:02.330
The Joe Rogan experience.
2
00:00:03.229 --> 00:00:05.960
It's just so strange how quickly it snuck up on
3
00:00:06.019 --> 00:00:09.880
us and that there's two narratives that we hear. The
4
00:00:10.019 --> 00:00:12.580
one narrative is we're in real trouble and that this
5
00:00:12.619 --> 00:00:15.019
thing is going to take over every aspect of society
6
00:00:15.220 --> 00:00:18.120
and it's essentially going to be a superior life force,
7
00:00:18.589 --> 00:00:22.589
a superior intellect that exists amongst us that we created.
8
00:00:22.910 --> 00:00:25.269
And we don't think that's wise. And then there's the
9
00:00:25.329 --> 00:00:28.929
other side that is saying things like what Elon says,
10
00:00:29.030 --> 00:00:32.770
where he's saying we're going to have universal high income.
11
00:00:33.109 --> 00:00:35.229
It's going to be so much prosperity that no one's
12
00:00:35.250 --> 00:00:37.090
ever going to have to toil again. There'll be no
13
00:00:37.130 --> 00:00:40.390
more third world countries. There'll be no more poverty. Like
14
00:00:40.429 --> 00:00:43.530
we can eradicate poverty with the resources that we have
15
00:00:43.609 --> 00:00:46.630
on earth. And we can change what it means to
16
00:00:46.689 --> 00:00:50.880
have to work, like just to provide yourself with food
17
00:00:50.909 --> 00:00:53.310
and housing. That's all going to be easy and free.
18
00:00:53.649 --> 00:00:55.390
And then everything else is going to be you have
19
00:00:55.409 --> 00:00:58.890
to find a purpose in your life. My problem is,
20
00:00:59.109 --> 00:01:01.259
and I love Elon, but the people who have that
21
00:01:01.299 --> 00:01:06.140
perspective are all making money off AI. They are all
22
00:01:06.239 --> 00:01:10.040
invested like heavily. Mark Andreessen, all these people that have
23
00:01:10.060 --> 00:01:14.870
this rosy view of it, they're all invested heavily into it.
24
00:01:15.189 --> 00:01:18.909
So when someone like you, who's not necessarily in that camp,
25
00:01:19.599 --> 00:01:24.140
that is more of a true objective analyst of what's
26
00:01:24.159 --> 00:01:26.969
going on. When you have a positive aspect or a
27
00:01:27.030 --> 00:01:30.469
positive viewpoint of it, I get a little more excited.
28
00:01:30.709 --> 00:01:32.670
Yeah, well, I mean, the truth is we don't know
29
00:01:32.689 --> 00:01:39.280
how it will pan out. So, I mean, I think
30
00:01:39.319 --> 00:01:43.480
there are these scenarios where we unlock this enormous boost
31
00:01:44.140 --> 00:01:50.879
both to economic productivity, but then, you know, across medicine, entertainment, environment, travel,
32
00:01:50.939 --> 00:01:53.260
all kinds of things. And like a tsunami of wealth
33
00:01:53.340 --> 00:01:57.420
just kind of flows through and lifts all boats. And
34
00:01:58.040 --> 00:02:02.640
then the idea of human work becomes an anachronism and
35
00:02:03.340 --> 00:02:06.790
where you have machines that can do everything that we
36
00:02:06.810 --> 00:02:08.930
can do physically and mentally and do it much better
37
00:02:08.969 --> 00:02:12.770
and cheaper. And so I think in those scenarios where
38
00:02:12.789 --> 00:02:16.669
this really works, the transformation is a lot deeper. I mean,
39
00:02:16.689 --> 00:02:19.310
so that kind of layers to the onion. So, like,
40
00:02:19.330 --> 00:02:22.349
the most superficial level is, well, they automate your job,
41
00:02:22.370 --> 00:02:23.740
so what are people going to.
42
00:02:24.659 --> 00:02:26.400
What are they going to do for purpose?
43
00:02:26.439 --> 00:02:28.360
Well, that comes a little bit deeper. First, like, the
44
00:02:28.620 --> 00:02:30.840
most superficial level is people just wonder, where will I
45
00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:33.639
get the job if the robot replaces me? And then
46
00:02:33.680 --> 00:02:36.120
the superficial level of that conversation, I think, is, well,
47
00:02:36.150 --> 00:02:39.310
you need to retrain workers so they can work in other... fields,
48
00:02:39.419 --> 00:02:41.620
and maybe there needs to be, I don't know, employment
49
00:02:41.780 --> 00:02:44.479
insurance whilst they are being retrained or something like that.
50
00:02:45.680 --> 00:02:47.979
But once you think through where this ultimately leads, you
51
00:02:48.000 --> 00:02:50.990
think it's not just a few jobs, I think, but
52
00:02:51.030 --> 00:02:55.449
it's really everything that humans can do to a good approximation,
53
00:02:56.590 --> 00:03:00.800
with maybe the exception being where the consumer has a
54
00:03:00.840 --> 00:03:05.039
direct preference that the particular product or service be done
55
00:03:05.120 --> 00:03:13.490
by human like priest prostitute and politician um those might survive.
56
00:03:13.669 --> 00:03:17.710
Well politician hopefully not hopefully ai can handle that all
57
00:03:17.770 --> 00:03:19.229
without any corruption.
58
00:03:18.870 --> 00:03:20.990
Yeah but somebody's got to take credit for.
59
00:03:20.889 --> 00:03:25.110
It this is true and code it yeah it's um.
60
00:03:25.590 --> 00:03:30.439
Um And so then you get to these more profound questions,
61
00:03:30.490 --> 00:03:33.129
I think, about meaning and purpose and what does a
62
00:03:33.159 --> 00:03:37.550
human life look like at technological maturity. Right.
63
00:03:38.550 --> 00:03:43.530
Also, what is experience? Does experience have to be measurable?
64
00:03:43.689 --> 00:03:46.030
Do you have to touch it? Do you have to
65
00:03:46.110 --> 00:03:51.590
measure it and weigh it? Or is virtual experience still experience?
66
00:03:52.050 --> 00:03:55.530
Like if you have a very full and enjoyable and
67
00:03:55.590 --> 00:03:59.479
fulfilling virtual life, Is that enough? You know what I mean?
68
00:03:59.680 --> 00:04:03.340
Do you have to do everything in the material world
69
00:04:03.979 --> 00:04:10.810
or can you find happiness in a virtual world
Load full transcript
that
70
00:04:10.830 --> 00:04:14.710
doesn't currently exist but we could clearly see the technology
71
00:04:14.930 --> 00:04:20.209
if it expands? There's going to be the possibility of
72
00:04:20.370 --> 00:04:22.730
experiencing a matrix-type reality.
73
00:04:23.569 --> 00:04:26.860
Yeah, I think I see where you're going. But, yeah,
74
00:04:26.939 --> 00:04:28.980
I mean, I think, like, different strokes for different folks.
75
00:04:29.100 --> 00:04:33.060
If you imagine a world where presumably these virtual worlds
76
00:04:33.220 --> 00:04:37.439
will be very rich and deep and fascinating, but some
77
00:04:37.480 --> 00:04:40.230
people might just like the idea of, you know, climbing
78
00:04:40.259 --> 00:04:42.810
the real Mount Everest rather than, you know, being in it.
79
00:04:42.810 --> 00:04:48.029
Most certainly. But, however, there could come a time where
80
00:04:48.389 --> 00:04:51.529
people are locked out of regular reality. Like, this is
81
00:04:51.709 --> 00:04:56.870
worst-case scenario with A.I., is that you have your needs
82
00:04:56.930 --> 00:05:00.170
taken care of, but there is no purpose. There's nothing
83
00:05:00.230 --> 00:05:02.939
to do. There's nothing to do because AI is taking
84
00:05:02.980 --> 00:05:06.480
care of all aspects of society. Other than recreation, there's
85
00:05:06.540 --> 00:05:09.519
nothing to do. And then this one recreation comes along
86
00:05:09.620 --> 00:05:12.860
that's not reality, but it's way more fulfilling and exciting
87
00:05:12.879 --> 00:05:16.810
than any other aspect of reality. And an example of
88
00:05:16.829 --> 00:05:21.329
that would just be in a very minor way, your
89
00:05:21.370 --> 00:05:23.779
phone provides you with that sort of an escape. And
90
00:05:23.819 --> 00:05:27.180
it's not even that thrilling, and yet it's massively addictive.
91
00:05:28.759 --> 00:05:31.889
People are on their phones six hours a day. If
92
00:05:31.949 --> 00:05:35.509
we come up with a virtual reality that's way more
93
00:05:35.550 --> 00:05:40.670
exciting than regular reality, everyone's going to hop on in. Yeah.
94
00:05:40.769 --> 00:05:45.129
I mean, I think to some extent this will maybe
95
00:05:45.170 --> 00:05:47.550
be the case whether you go the virtual path or
96
00:05:47.589 --> 00:05:49.850
the physical path. I mean, you could imagine a future
97
00:05:49.870 --> 00:05:51.879
where there are, like, resorts and people are sort of
98
00:05:51.980 --> 00:05:54.879
lying in beach chairs. sipping drinks all day long and
99
00:05:55.500 --> 00:05:57.449
like that's also a kind of checking out.
100
00:05:57.290 --> 00:06:01.290
Right yeah well that yeah that's not fulfilling you know
101
00:06:01.310 --> 00:06:05.329
what the thing about a virtual reality is you don't
102
00:06:05.370 --> 00:06:08.560
have to even live within our physics I mean you
103
00:06:08.600 --> 00:06:10.639
can fly you can do anything.
104
00:06:10.300 --> 00:06:12.899
It's a larger space of possibilities but either way it
105
00:06:12.939 --> 00:06:15.399
could be like a passive existence in physical reality where
106
00:06:15.420 --> 00:06:18.000
you're like launching at the beach or it could be
107
00:06:18.019 --> 00:06:19.680
like a video game or in video games like it
108
00:06:19.699 --> 00:06:22.509
could have like really intense every straining every fiber to
109
00:06:22.529 --> 00:06:25.300
try to succeed in this virtual environment or like one
110
00:06:25.319 --> 00:06:28.240
where you're just kind of floating on some cloud in
111
00:06:28.279 --> 00:06:29.019
a drug-like state.
112
00:06:29.360 --> 00:06:31.000
But I don't think people are going to be interested
113
00:06:31.060 --> 00:06:34.079
in that because just the way the human mind works,
114
00:06:34.579 --> 00:06:36.930
like what kind of video games are people attracted to?
115
00:06:37.000 --> 00:06:41.069
It's because a video game is essentially an approximation of that.
116
00:06:41.089 --> 00:06:44.110
You're just watching it on a screen, but you're sort
117
00:06:44.129 --> 00:06:45.970
of forgetting the fact that you're watching it on a screen.
118
00:06:45.990 --> 00:06:49.509
You're just concentrating on this 3D reality that you're running
119
00:06:49.550 --> 00:06:51.449
through with a machine gun or whatever you're doing, right?
120
00:06:51.959 --> 00:06:54.160
That's what people are interested in. They're not interested in
121
00:06:54.199 --> 00:06:56.240
these games where you just like float over the earth
122
00:06:56.779 --> 00:07:01.740
and like fly and just eat bananas. No, they're interested
123
00:07:01.779 --> 00:07:05.269
in thrilling things. And if that gets provided in a
124
00:07:05.370 --> 00:07:08.209
virtual way, the amount of people that are going to
125
00:07:08.250 --> 00:07:12.170
just say this is better than regular boring life or
126
00:07:12.209 --> 00:07:14.350
we're a slave to a computer.
127
00:07:15.269 --> 00:07:17.240
Yeah, I mean, there are both kinds.
128
00:07:17.620 --> 00:07:18.139
Okay, we're back.
129
00:07:19.120 --> 00:07:22.290
Where were we? Oh, yeah, I was just saying that
130
00:07:22.310 --> 00:07:25.670
there are also these computer games that, like, provide a
131
00:07:25.670 --> 00:07:26.870
more passive experience.
132
00:07:26.990 --> 00:07:27.129
Yeah.
133
00:07:27.269 --> 00:07:29.470
You're, like, not really doing much, and it's more kind
134
00:07:29.509 --> 00:07:30.209
of zoning out.
135
00:07:30.569 --> 00:07:32.910
But most people aren't interested in those. Most people are
136
00:07:32.949 --> 00:07:36.529
interested in Call of Duty. They're interested in these wild
137
00:07:36.730 --> 00:07:39.990
first-person shooters where you're running down hallways and everything's exciting
138
00:07:40.029 --> 00:07:44.449
and thrilling, or some sci-fi game or, you know, Half-Life,
139
00:07:44.670 --> 00:07:46.350
something like that. That's what people are interested in.
140
00:07:46.350
--> 00:07:49.069
Yeah, well, I mean, I think there are, like, some...
141
00:07:50.180 --> 00:07:53.240
personality differences in what path you would take there. But
142
00:07:53.740 --> 00:07:55.500
either way, I think a lot of the choices that
143
00:07:55.540 --> 00:08:00.160
people would make currently depend on what they are sort
144
00:08:00.220 --> 00:08:04.259
of designed to respond to by feeling good about it. So, like,
145
00:08:04.319 --> 00:08:06.620
if you enjoy one thing, you choose that. If you
146
00:08:06.639 --> 00:08:11.139
enjoy another, no. In this condition of technological maturity, if
147
00:08:11.180 --> 00:08:14.740
we imagine sort of a future civilization that has developed
148
00:08:15.339 --> 00:08:17.370
all possible technologies to their maximum.
149
00:08:17.879 --> 00:08:18.110
Yeah.
150
00:08:19.589 --> 00:08:23.199
Then amongst the affordances, amongst the things they could do,
151
00:08:23.500 --> 00:08:27.779
they wouldn't just have control over the external environment, things
152
00:08:27.839 --> 00:08:31.360
around them, but also their own biology and brains. So
153
00:08:32.200 --> 00:08:35.620
if you were one of these people, and maybe right
154
00:08:35.659 --> 00:08:38.409
now the only way you get enjoyment is by getting
155
00:08:38.610 --> 00:08:41.750
crazy drunk or doing things you don't really approve of maybe,
156
00:08:41.830 --> 00:08:47.169
but that's actually what sort of lights your fire. You could...
157
00:08:47.909 --> 00:08:50.460
you might be redesigning yourself to take the same kind
158
00:08:50.480 --> 00:08:53.580
of pleasure, but in some kind of contemplating the beauty
159
00:08:53.620 --> 00:08:57.620
of the universe or appreciating the goodness in the heart
160
00:08:57.679 --> 00:09:02.620
of others, or some more sort of noble aspiration, like
161
00:09:02.779 --> 00:09:06.889
solving abstract mathematics rather than playing first-person shooters. You would
162
00:09:06.909 --> 00:09:10.350
have a choice whether you would get your thrills from
163
00:09:11.289 --> 00:09:12.649
one kind of activity or the other.
164
00:09:13.360 --> 00:09:15.559
Yeah, which brings us to the question, like, what does
165
00:09:15.600 --> 00:09:19.360
it mean to be human? Like for people finding beauty
166
00:09:19.500 --> 00:09:24.490
and joy in, you know, interesting and fascinating things and,
167
00:09:25.090 --> 00:09:28.269
you know, how to be a better person and all
168
00:09:28.289 --> 00:09:32.659
the different aspects of human life that we think about
169
00:09:32.779 --> 00:09:35.120
when we think about people, we think about noble aspects
170
00:09:35.159 --> 00:09:40.110
of humanity. But doesn't that have to exist? in conjunction
171
00:09:40.269 --> 00:09:43.340
with the worst aspects of society for us to appreciate it?
172
00:09:43.970 --> 00:09:46.259
It seems like this is a part of the human condition,
173
00:09:46.360 --> 00:09:49.200
is that we have to have crime so that we
174
00:09:49.220 --> 00:09:51.740
can appreciate peace. We have to have war so we
175
00:09:51.759 --> 00:09:54.350
can appreciate peace. We have to have hate so we
176
00:09:54.370 --> 00:09:57.990
can appreciate love. And we're never without one or the other.
177
00:09:58.269 --> 00:10:01.580
They're always both together in constant... conflict and we're always
178
00:10:01.879 --> 00:10:06.200
nobly hoping that the good wins out over the bad.
179
00:10:06.440 --> 00:10:08.139
And this is part of the struggle of being a
180
00:10:08.179 --> 00:10:12.029
human being. And if we just completely eliminate that struggle,
181
00:10:12.549 --> 00:10:15.549
we're going to have to find some– we're going to
182
00:10:15.570 --> 00:10:18.210
have to be a different thing because what we are
183
00:10:18.370 --> 00:10:24.080
is this very strange– territorial primate and who's endlessly curious.
184
00:10:24.840 --> 00:10:29.740
And this territorial primate is moving in a certain direction.
185
00:10:29.779 --> 00:10:33.159
And that direction seems to be a better society. It
186
00:10:33.620 --> 00:10:36.539
seems to be over time. If you look at statistics
187
00:10:36.600 --> 00:10:40.080
from thousands of years ago to today, there's less violence
188
00:10:40.259 --> 00:10:43.519
is better medicine. There's better education. It's moving in a
189
00:10:43.539 --> 00:10:46.620
better and better and better direction, but it's in a struggle.
190
00:10:46.740 --> 00:10:49.580
That's part of why it moves. if all of a
191
00:10:49.620 --> 00:10:53.500
sudden there's no struggle and everyone is this wonderful, enlightened being, like,
192
00:10:53.720 --> 00:10:56.259
what are we? Because we're going to be a different
193
00:10:56.340 --> 00:10:58.600
thing than what we are right now. And if you
194
00:10:58.620 --> 00:11:01.649
love music and if you love art and if you love,
195
00:11:01.669 --> 00:11:05.649
you know, novels and all these different things that come
196
00:11:05.690 --> 00:11:08.269
out of the human condition, well, those things come out
197
00:11:08.309 --> 00:11:12.080
of struggle. Those things come out of confusion and pain
198
00:11:12.149 --> 00:11:15.139
and heartbreak and love and joy and all that stuff
199
00:11:15.539 --> 00:11:19.659
all piled up together. Without that, what are we? And
200
00:11:20.120 --> 00:11:24.000
so if we are moving in this direction technologically and
201
00:11:24.039 --> 00:11:30.690
we're not moving as fast biologically, do we merge? Because
202
00:11:30.710 --> 00:11:33.190
that seems to be what I think. I think that
203
00:11:33.289 --> 00:11:36.629
if this thing goes the way it continues to go,
204
00:11:37.009 --> 00:11:39.220
the bottleneck is going to be human biology.
205
00:11:40.139 --> 00:11:45.200
Yeah, there is a kind of paradox embedded in our
206
00:11:45.279 --> 00:11:48.700
efforts to make progress. So there are all these kind
207
00:11:48.720 --> 00:11:51.500
of scientists and people working to develop better technologies. And
208
00:11:51.529 --> 00:11:54.730
throughout the economy, in some company, maybe you try to
209
00:11:54.769 --> 00:11:56.610
figure out how to make some process a little bit
210
00:11:56.669 --> 00:11:59.269
more efficient so you can serve customers better. And all
211
00:11:59.309 --> 00:12:03.590
of this is designed to solve problems. If you sort
212
00:12:03.610 --> 00:12:08.779
of extrapolate that to its logical endpoint, you would imagine
213
00:12:08.799 --> 00:12:12.159
we would have perfect technology that can do everything, solve
214
00:12:12.179 --> 00:12:15.399
all the problems, presumably with AI and automation.
215
00:12:15.440 --> 00:12:15.700
Right.
216
00:12:16.950 --> 00:12:18.970
But then you end up in this condition where there
217
00:12:19.070 --> 00:12:21.350
is kind of nothing left for us to do, you
218
00:12:21.389 --> 00:12:23.889
might think. And so although it looks like we have
219
00:12:23.909 --> 00:12:27.000
these strong reasons to push forward in this direction, if
220
00:12:27.019 --> 00:12:29.779
you actually look at the end point, if we succeeded
221
00:12:29.799 --> 00:12:33.159
to many people, it will look kind of unpalatable and
222
00:12:33.220 --> 00:12:36.129
like this kind of future where all the problems are solved.
223
00:12:36.190 --> 00:12:41.820
And nevertheless, that does seem to be you know, the
224
00:12:41.840 --> 00:12:44.299
direction that we are headed in, probably the direction that
225
00:12:44.559 --> 00:12:45.700
we should be headed in.
226
00:12:45.720 --> 00:12:47.980
Yeah, wouldn't that be a better goal if there was
227
00:12:48.659 --> 00:12:55.600
zero murder, zero violence, zero crime, zero lying, zero corruption,
228
00:12:56.080 --> 00:12:59.460
and human beings all worked in coordination with each other,
229
00:13:00.059 --> 00:13:04.320
just like in a sense of unique syncing and harmony?
230
00:13:04.519 --> 00:13:04.720
Right.
231
00:13:04.960 --> 00:13:05.960
That would be way better.
232
00:13:06.830 --> 00:13:09.299
I think so, but it does... Like if you actually
233
00:13:09.360 --> 00:13:15.899
stare at that situation, it does have these slightly unpalatable qualities.
234
00:13:15.950 --> 00:13:18.149
Because you might think it looks kind of bland, right?
235
00:13:18.850 --> 00:13:22.529
Not necessarily, though. It's just it looks bland if you
236
00:13:22.570 --> 00:13:26.169
think about what we're experiencing now, like all the excitement
237
00:13:26.190 --> 00:13:30.590
and the weirdness of uncertainty and of not knowing, you know,
238
00:13:30.990 --> 00:13:34.490
and also the negative aspects of our life in conjunction
239
00:13:34.509 --> 00:13:37.210
with the positive aspects of our lives. We contrast the
240
00:13:37.250 --> 00:13:39.639
two of them and you really appreciate good people after
241
00:13:39.659 --> 00:13:43.899
around a bunch of fucking assholes. That doesn't have to
242
00:13:43.940 --> 00:13:46.559
be that way. This is just what we are dealing with.
243
00:13:46.679 --> 00:13:50.110
This is my position on work too. Because everybody in
244
00:13:50.149 --> 00:13:53.230
their head is like, what happens when AI takes all
245
00:13:53.269 --> 00:13:56.110
the jobs? And I'm like, do you have to have
246
00:13:56.129 --> 00:14:00.600
a fucking job? Isn't that a human invention? Like, why
247
00:14:00.620 --> 00:14:03.139
do you have to have a job? It seems crazy
248
00:14:03.159 --> 00:14:07.929
that our main focus is on housing and food And
249
00:14:08.029 --> 00:14:11.269
like most people are basically just working for that. Most
250
00:14:11.289 --> 00:14:14.740
people that are, most people that are struggling check to check,
251
00:14:15.139 --> 00:14:19.860
basically housing and food is their daily labor. If that's removed,
252
00:14:20.919 --> 00:14:25.350
wouldn't enough people figure out what to do with their time? Yeah. Yeah.
253
00:14:26.000 --> 00:14:28.350
I think so. That like, yeah, there will be some
254
00:14:28.389 --> 00:14:31.230
transition and discomfort in change.
255
00:14:31.250 --> 00:14:31.850
But this is made up.
256
00:14:31.870 --> 00:14:34.409
Ultimately that is like, yeah. I mean, I think it's like,
257
00:14:34.929 --> 00:14:37.679
so slavery is really bad, right? Like, But wage labor
258
00:14:37.720 --> 00:14:40.580
is a sort of slavery light in a sense. You
259
00:14:40.600 --> 00:14:44.370
have to sell a third of your waking day just
260
00:14:44.409 --> 00:14:46.759
to get money to pay for necessities.