رونوشت کامل Markets Don't Only Go Up: Protecting Your Wealth in a Downturn | AWM Insights #260

00:01:26.058 --> 00:01:26.298 But 00:01:26.728 --> 00:01:27.328 for all intents 00:01:27.328 --> 00:01:27.438 and 00:01:27.438 --> 00:01:30.198 purposes, either that volatility's been a little concentrated 00:01:30.198 --> 00:01:31.218 in certain parts of the 00:01:31.218 --> 00:01:31.648 market, 00:01:32.068 --> 00:01:32.638 um, 00:01:32.818 --> 00:01:33.368 or it's been 00:01:33.888 --> 00:01:34.808 kinda short-lived. 00:01:34.808 --> 00:01:35.018 And So 00:01:35.018 --> 00:01:35.778 just, just 00:01:35.928 --> 00:01:36.438 talking 00:01:36.448 --> 00:01:36.758 through 00:01:36.758 --> 00:01:37.188 that, 00:01:37.518 --> 00:01:39.368 um, almost for 00:01:39.368 --> 00:01:40.188 our benefit just 00:01:40.188 --> 00:01:41.928 as much as your-yours, you all 00:01:41.928 --> 00:01:43.548 listeners to, uh 00:01:43.578 --> 00:01:44.598 just remind ourselves, 00:01:44.598 --> 00:01:45.808 " Hey, markets don't 00:01:45.808 --> 00:01:47.958 on-only go up and to the right. 00:01:48.118 --> 00:01:50.808 Volatility is is a real thing. 00:01:51.158 --> 00:01:52.518 And especially 00:01:52.518 --> 00:01:55.448 given where things are priced today, I think it's a, just a, a good 00:01:55.448 --> 00:01:59.178 conversation for us all, uh, uh, to have here, and, and you can get a 00:01:59.178 --> 00:02:02.448 little bit of insight into how Mina and I, um, think about this internally. 00:02:02.448 --> 00:02:04.738 So a little bit of the, uh, inside baseball 00:02:04.738 --> 00:02:06.958 take, if you will, pun intended on that one. 00:02:06.958 --> 00:02:09.968 So now, without further ado, Mina, as we always do, 00:02:10.338 --> 00:02:12.188 um, Let's, let's 00:02:12.188 --> 00:02:12.738 level set. 00:02:12.778 --> 00:02:16.918 When, when we, we say, you know, when I say markets have been 00:02:16.928 --> 00:02:19.538 fairly well-behaved, um, you know, 00:02:19.538 --> 00:02:20.538 go into that a little bit. 00:02:20.538 --> 00:02:25.338 But even, uh, further, you know, part of, part of why we decided to talk about this 00:02:25.338 --> 00:02:29.888 today was, uh, we're at the middle of the quarter, or excuse me, middle of the year, 00:02:30.178 --> 00:02:33.958 starting to see some refreshes of, um, uh, 00:02:34.018 --> 00:02:39.248 predictions or price levels where, uh, certain analysts and banks are expecting 00:02:39.248 --> 00:02:41.278 the year, the markets to end the year. 00:02:41.558 --> 00:02:44.258 Um, you know, it's a great time to refresh that type of stuff. 00:02:44.258 --> 00:02:48.328 And, you know, some of them think we're gonna have a, a, uh, a drop from 00:02:48.328 --> 00:02:51.818 here, and then there's a a few that, that see us continuing to run up. 00:02:52.198 --> 00:02:55.948 I will say we have to take all of those with a, a grain of, uh, salt 00:02:55.988 --> 00:02:58.878 and, and know that it's very, very hard to get these things right. 00:02:58.888 --> 00:03:02.268 And that's why there is such a wild distribution when you look 00:03:02.268 --> 00:03:03.708 at, you know, the-- I think we're 00:03:03.708 --> 00:03:04.938 looking at ten or so different 00:03:05.088 --> 00:03:07.308 predictions Um, but Yeah just, 00:03:07.318 --> 00:03:07.668 just 00:03:07.758 --> 00:03:07.948 let, 00:03:07.988 --> 00:03:09.018 let's start with kinda again, 00:03:09.028 --> 00:03:10.188 first principles level set. 00:03:10.198 --> 00:03:11.868 Where, where are we within 00:03:11.878 --> 00:03:12.688 markets right now? 00:03:12.952 --> 00:03:15.652 Mena Hanna: markets have just been doing extremely well. 00:03:15.652 --> 00:03:16.542 If you look at sort 00:03:16.542 --> 00:03:16.662 of 00:03:16.672 --> 00:03:17.762 yearly data, 00:03:18.092 --> 00:03:21.022 like over over a season, we have just had 00:03:21.032 --> 00:03:21.472 such a 00:03:21.472 --> 00:03:22.622 long winning streak. 00:03:22.942 --> 00:03:27.632 Twenty twenty-three was an amazing year, so was 'twenty-four, so was 'twenty-five, 00:03:28.052 --> 00:03:29.772 and this year is also looking 00:03:29.782 --> 00:03:30.062 like 00:03:30.072 --> 00:03:30.972 it's a great year. 00:03:31.662 --> 00:03:31.952 I know 00:03:31.952 --> 00:03:32.112 we're 00:03:32.112 --> 00:03:32.542 halfway 00:03:32.542 --> 00:03:32.922 through the 00:03:32.922 --> 00:03:33.172 year. 00:03:33.172 --> 00:03:34.502 If you kind of evaluate 00:03:34.502 --> 00:03:34.732 what 00:03:34.742 --> 00:03:37.022 Wall Street and all of the analysts out there 00:03:37.022 --> 00:03:38.362 are, are pricing 00:03:38.382 --> 00:03:39.732 in for the rest of the 00:03:39.732 --> 00:03:40.082 year, 00:03:40.092 --> 00:03:40.272 they're 00:03:40.272 --> 00:03:40.742 also 00:03:40.762 --> 00:03:41.522 pricing in 00:03:41.842 --> 00:03:43.222 That this is gonna be, you know, 00:03:43.262 --> 00:03:44.152 anywhere between 00:03:44.542 --> 00:03:46.382 a fifteen to twenty percent 00:03:47.382 --> 00:03:48.762 year, which is, which 00:03:48.762 --> 00:03:49.432 is, abnormal On 00:03:49.472 --> 00:03:50.122 average, Yeah. 00:03:50.152 --> 00:03:50.592 Yeah. 00:03:50.662 --> 00:03:50.962 Yeah. 00:03:50.962 --> 00:03:54.322 so having three or four of those in a row is, 00:03:54.372 --> 00:03:55.822 is definitely atypical. 00:03:55.822 --> 00:03:58.602 And, and it's not like we're ringing the 00:03:58.612 --> 00:03:58.982 alarm 00:03:58.992 --> 00:03:59.332 bells 00:03:59.332 --> 00:04:00.392 and, and saying that, 00:04:00.502 --> 00:04:00.762 you know 00:04:00.762 --> 00:04:00.892 the 00:04:00.892 --> 00:04:02.512 market's overpriced. 00:04:02.542 --> 00:04:02.812 There 00:04:02.812 --> 00:04:03.002 is 00:04:03.032 --> 00:04:04.192 going to be 00:04:04.432 --> 00:04:04.542 a 00:04:04.542 --> 00:04:05.982 sell-off at some point. 00:04:06.092 --> 00:04:08.282 We're definitely not taking that position, 00:04:08.672 --> 00:04:09.082 but- 00:04:09.146 --> 00:04:09.306 Justin: I 00:04:09.306 --> 00:04:09.776 will say 00:04:09.776 --> 00:04:09.986 that 00:04:09.996 --> 00:04:11.096 is a

possibility, 00:04:11.096 --> 00:04:11.246 but 00:04:11.246 --> 00:04:11.676 we're not 00:04:11.696 --> 00:04:12.476 out there to your, 00:04:12.516 --> 00:04:15.186 to your point saying like, this is what we're predicting 00:04:15.186 --> 00:04:16.296 we don't play that game So 00:04:16.376 --> 00:04:16.618 I just- Yeah. 00:04:16.618 --> 00:04:16.956 For sure … wanna be 00:04:16.956 --> 00:04:17.326 abundantly 00:04:17.355 --> 00:04:17.742 Mena Hanna: don't play that game, so- Yeah, 00:04:17.742 --> 00:04:17.936 For sure … Yeah. 00:04:17.936 --> 00:04:18.136 We 00:04:18.136 --> 00:04:22.226 have to, we have to just factor in the fact that it i- it is a possibility, 00:04:22.226 --> 00:04:24.026 and unfortunately, sometimes 00:04:24.026 --> 00:04:24.456 when 00:04:24.796 --> 00:04:28.106 things are rosy and people forget that sell-offs 00:04:28.106 --> 00:04:28.456 can 00:04:28.456 --> 00:04:29.456 potentially happen, 00:04:29.776 --> 00:04:32.286 that's when they get overextended. 00:04:32.596 --> 00:04:37.836 There's just over-optimism in the market that happens, and if markets 00:04:37.836 --> 00:04:38.536 do kind of 00:04:38.536 --> 00:04:39.616 reverse course 00:04:39.636 --> 00:04:40.546 and sell off like 00:04:40.546 --> 00:04:41.146 we've seen 00:04:42.036 --> 00:04:45.156 historically, that's when investors could get really hurt. 00:04:45.156 --> 00:04:45.486 So 00:04:45.716 --> 00:04:47.226 we obviously love the fact 00:04:47.226 --> 00:04:48.706 that markets are doing well, but 00:04:48.716 --> 00:04:48.906 we 00:04:48.906 --> 00:04:49.856 also are, 00:04:50.576 --> 00:04:51.576 uh, not 00:04:51.586 --> 00:04:52.276 forever 00:04:52.326 --> 00:04:54.116 optimists or realists and, 00:04:54.116 --> 00:04:54.676 and we have to 00:04:54.686 --> 00:04:56.236 be prepared for the other side 00:04:56.236 --> 00:04:56.646 of that 00:04:56.676 --> 00:04:57.336 which, which 00:04:57.336 --> 00:04:58.016 has happened 00:04:58.316 --> 00:04:58.816 recently. 00:04:58.816 --> 00:04:59.686 It's happened over 00:04:59.686 --> 00:04:59.936 really 00:04:59.946 --> 00:05:01.066 short periods of time. 00:05:01.076 --> 00:05:01.626 You know, even 00:05:01.626 --> 00:05:07.436 2020 was actually a positive market year, even though we saw some indices, 00:05:08.006 --> 00:05:09.786 you know, shed 30% during, 00:05:09.796 --> 00:05:10.676 during that COVID 00:05:10.706 --> 00:05:11.196 month. 00:05:11.806 --> 00:05:12.666 We, we 00:05:12.666 --> 00:05:13.616 just have to be 00:05:13.646 --> 00:05:14.096 aware 00:05:14.096 --> 00:05:14.476 that 00:05:14.486 --> 00:05:15.086 sometimes 00:05:15.086 --> 00:05:15.316 these 00:05:15.316 --> 00:05:15.846 drawdowns 00:05:15.876 --> 00:05:16.756 aren't short. 00:05:17.056 --> 00:05:17.676 They don't just 00:05:17.676 --> 00:05:18.636 go away when 00:05:19.146 --> 00:05:23.556 things open up or the Fed kind of steps in to, to solve issues. 00:05:23.596 --> 00:05:24.136 We could 00:05:24.146 --> 00:05:24.616 have, 00:05:25.086 --> 00:05:25.406 you know, a 00:05:25.406 --> 00:05:26.576 couple, A couple years 00:05:26.576 --> 00:05:26.736 of, 00:05:26.756 --> 00:05:29.606 of drawdowns where investors lose money 00:05:29.606 --> 00:05:30.026 and, and 00:05:30.026 --> 00:05:30.626 don't recover 00:05:30.626 --> 00:05:31.016 it for a 00:05:31.040 --> 00:05:31.350 Justin: couple 00:05:31.350 --> 00:05:31.430 years. 00:05:31.547 --> 00:05:34.130 Yeah, and I think th-those-- there's a few points in there I would-- I 00:05:34.130 --> 00:05:36.550 just wanna highlight for everyone. 00:05:37.050 --> 00:05:37.740 One is 00:05:38.150 --> 00:05:39.900 what, what-- in a way, what we're 00:05:39.900 --> 00:05:41.680 most concerned with are those 00:05:41.700 --> 00:05:44.360 long drawdowns because, you know, CO-COVID, 00:05:45.540 --> 00:05:46.210 it s- 00:05:46.280 --> 00:05:47.220 it was terrible. 00:05:47.220 --> 00:05:47.490 It was 00:05:47.510 --> 00:05:47.930 pretty- 00:05:47.950 --> 00:05:48.330 It was 00:05:49.200 --> 00:05:50.190 Extreme, 00:05:50.460 --> 00:05:51.390 but it was quick. 00:05:51.400 --> 00:05:51.420 Yeah. 00:05:51.770 --> 00:05:53.670 Um, and 00:05:53.990 --> 00:05:55.440 when things happen quickly, 00:05:56.210 --> 00:05:56.900 you know, in a way, 00:05:56.900 --> 00:05:57.550 it's like it's 00:05:57.550 --> 00:05:58.330 too fast for 00:05:58.330 --> 00:05:58.700 us to 00:05:58.730 --> 00:05:59.540 react one way 00:05:59.540 --> 00:05:59.650 or 00:05:59.650 --> 00:06:02.620 the other to, or, or, or individuals act one 00:06:02.620 --> 00:06:03.430 way or the other too. 00:06:03.850 --> 00:06:04.040 The 00:06:04.070 --> 00:06:05.140 long extended 00:06:05.140 --> 00:06:05.660 drawdowns 00:06:05.670 --> 00:06:05.800 is 00:06:06.060 --> 00:06:06.430 really 00:06:06.430 --> 00:06:06.810 where, 00:06:06.950 --> 00:06:09.230 where i-if you're-- 00:06:09.230 --> 00:06:09.340 if 00:06:09.340 --> 00:06:09.470 you 00:06:09.470 --> 00:06:10.480 get complacent, 00:06:10.550 --> 00:06:10.920 um 00:06:10.920 --> 00:06:11.070 if 00:06:11.070 --> 00:06:11.690 you kind of, 00:06:11.850 --> 00:06:12.080 uh 00:06:12.120 --> 00:06:12.560 change 00:06:12.560 --> 00:06:12.690 your 00:06:12.690 --> 00:06:13.570 assumptions and 00:06:13.780 --> 00:06:17.400 believe that markets can't do this don't do this anymore, that's 00:06:17.690 --> 00:06:18.770 where you 00:06:18.770 --> 00:06:19.290 really get 00:06:19.290 --> 00:06:19.700 yourself 00:06:19.700 --> 00:06:19.910 into 00:06:19.910 --> 00:06:20.160 hot 00:06:20.160 --> 00:06:20.640 water. 00:06:20.920 --> 00:06:21.470 Um 00:06:21.530 --> 00:06:21.870 and 00:06:21.870 --> 00:06:22.330 what 00:06:22.460 --> 00:06:22.680 what 00:06:22.690 --> 00:06:23.630 we are most 00:06:23.630 --> 00:06:24.750 concerned with when we're 00:06:25.120 --> 00:06:26.390 constructing portfolios 00:06:26.390 --> 00:06:27.150 for clients, we 00:06:27.150 --> 00:06:27.970 wanna make sure 00:06:28.740 --> 00:06:30.970 the most important

things in 00:06:31.170 --> 00:06:31.550 client 00:06:31.570 --> 00:06:32.520 or priorities in 00:06:32.640 --> 00:06:32.810 in 00:06:32.810 --> 00:06:32.970 our 00:06:32.970 --> 00:06:33.510 client, 00:06:33.870 --> 00:06:34.670 client's lives 00:06:34.670 --> 00:06:35.650 in, in that journey 00:06:35.660 --> 00:06:37.930 f-for the 100-year family or, or 00:06:37.930 --> 00:06:39.580 um, to to fulfill the 00:06:39.580 --> 00:06:40.060 journey of the 00:06:40.060 --> 00:06:41.980 100-year family are 00:06:41.990 --> 00:06:42.670 protected. 00:06:42.680 --> 00:06:43.270 Because 00:06:43.450 --> 00:06:44.220 when they're not, 00:06:44.560 --> 00:06:45.130 and when 00:06:45.130 --> 00:06:46.000 the inevitable… 00:06:46.040 --> 00:06:46.630 It is, 00:06:46.710 --> 00:06:46.860 I 00:06:46.860 --> 00:06:49.250 will say this, I, I think I can say this side of 00:06:49.250 --> 00:06:52.180 it from a compliance perspective, the inevitable market 00:06:52.180 --> 00:06:54.050 correction or, uh, whatever 00:06:54.110 --> 00:06:55.390 frame-framing you want to 00:06:55.390 --> 00:06:55.900 put on it, 00:06:55.950 --> 00:06:56.920 markets will go down 00:06:56.920 --> 00:06:57.800 at some point in time. 00:06:58.090 --> 00:06:58.250 They 00:06:58.250 --> 00:06:58.540 will. 00:06:58.560 --> 00:06:58.940 And you 00:06:58.940 --> 00:06:59.380 need 00:06:59.670 --> 00:06:59.990 to be 00:06:59.990 --> 00:07:00.690 protected 00:07:01.420 --> 00:07:01.840 for 00:07:01.840 --> 00:07:02.550 the most important 00:07:02.550 --> 00:07:03.060 things 00:07:04.090 --> 00:07:04.260 in 00:07:04.260 --> 00:07:04.860 your life, 00:07:04.890 --> 00:07:05.220 whether 00:07:05.220 --> 00:07:05.780 those be a 00:07:05.780 --> 00:07:07.300 tax payment or living 00:07:07.300 --> 00:07:07.960 expenses or 00:07:07.960 --> 00:07:08.210 other 00:07:08.210 --> 00:07:09.190 things that that you 00:07:09.190 --> 00:07:10.490 have framed and 00:07:10.490 --> 00:07:11.240 classified, 00:07:11.300 --> 00:07:13.290 uh, as being incredibly important 00:07:13.290 --> 00:07:13.380 to 00:07:13.380 --> 00:07:13.590 you. 00:07:13.880 --> 00:07:14.440 Those need to 00:07:14.450 --> 00:07:14.610 be 00:07:14.610 --> 00:07:15.270 met, 'cause if 00:07:15.270 --> 00:07:15.690 you 00:07:15.980 --> 00:07:16.420 have to 00:07:16.420 --> 00:07:17.390 sell assets 00:07:18.430 --> 00:07:18.610 at 00:07:18.610 --> 00:07:19.490 a depressed, 00:07:19.970 --> 00:07:20.660 um 00:07:22.678 --> 00:07:23.468 Value. 00:07:24.308 --> 00:07:25.178 you're-- that is 00:07:25.178 --> 00:07:26.108 losing money, right? 00:07:26.118 --> 00:07:27.278 That is that is the 00:07:27.288 --> 00:07:28.258 true risk 00:07:28.778 --> 00:07:29.568 that's out there. 00:07:29.958 --> 00:07:31.598 Extending this even to a further example, 00:07:31.608 --> 00:07:33.958 we were talking internally the other day about, you 00:07:33.958 --> 00:07:34.248 know, on the 00:07:34.248 --> 00:07:35.128 real estate side of 00:07:35.128 --> 00:07:36.778

things, real estate developers, et cetera. 00:07:36.978 --> 00:07:38.308 They use a ton of leverage, 00:07:38.618 --> 00:07:40.438 And not protecting 00:07:41.028 --> 00:07:41.738 the simple 00:07:41.788 --> 00:07:42.398 payment 00:07:43.008 --> 00:07:43.278 to 00:07:43.278 --> 00:07:44.188 fund that 00:07:44.338 --> 00:07:45.578 leverage or the loan 00:07:46.668 --> 00:07:48.138 wrecked a ton of 00:07:48.148 --> 00:07:49.768 people around the time, 00:07:49.778 --> 00:07:52.688 of, time of COVID, 'cause there was that complacency, that assumption 00:07:52.688 --> 00:07:54.728 that, oh, prices just go, go up and 00:07:54.738 --> 00:07:54.888 up. 00:07:54.898 --> 00:07:57.038 People are gonna pay their rent, so, so on and so forth. 00:07:57.038 --> 00:07:57.238 And 00:07:57.528 --> 00:07:57.868 it was a 00:07:57.868 --> 00:07:58.248 perfect 00:07:58.248 --> 00:07:58.818 storm 00:07:58.818 --> 00:07:59.918 that happens 00:08:00.148 --> 00:08:00.448 when you 00:08:00.448 --> 00:08:00.698 kind of 00:08:00.698 --> 00:08:02.678 least expect it So again, this is… 00:08:02.898 --> 00:08:03.028 We're 00:08:03.028 --> 00:08:03.558 not predicting 00:08:03.558 --> 00:08:03.888 the future, 00:08:03.888 --> 00:08:04.988 we're not ringing alarm bells. 00:08:04.988 --> 00:08:06.378 It is kind of this pause of, 00:08:06.788 --> 00:08:11.008 um, and, and reflection and reminder that markets don't 00:08:11.018 --> 00:08:11.378 only 00:08:11.378 --> 00:08:12.048 go up, and you 00:08:12.048 --> 00:08:12.658 need to have 00:08:12.658 --> 00:08:13.618 that plan in place. 00:08:13.618 --> 00:08:13.838 and 00:08:14.048 --> 00:08:15.028 and it's why 00:08:15.768 --> 00:08:16.278 you don't 00:08:16.308 --> 00:08:17.088 overextend. 00:08:17.088 --> 00:08:17.448 It's why 00:08:17.448 --> 00:08:17.848 you don't 00:08:17.848 --> 00:08:18.048 get 00:08:18.058 --> 00:08:18.908 complacent and, 00:08:18.908 --> 00:08:20.118 and, reassess. 00:08:20.118 --> 00:08:22.548 and say, "Oh, this time is different and, and whatnot, right? 00:08:22.578 --> 00:08:24.078 those are some of the most dangerous 00:08:24.078 --> 00:08:24.408 words 00:08:24.482 --> 00:08:24.724 Mena Hanna: out 00:08:24.724 --> 00:08:24.966 there. 00:08:25.003 --> 00:08:25.716 Yeah, and perfect 00:08:25.716 --> 00:08:26.176 storms 00:08:26.196 --> 00:08:26.926 do happen. 00:08:26.936 --> 00:08:27.426 it's 00:08:27.446 --> 00:08:27.706 it's 00:08:27.716 --> 00:08:28.336 important 00:08:28.346 --> 00:08:28.826 to just 00:08:28.936 --> 00:08:30.166 kind of take a step back and 00:08:30.166 --> 00:08:30.666 realize that 00:08:30.666 --> 00:08:31.616 perfect storms happen. 00:08:31.906 --> 00:08:34.066 How often they happen, they should be rare, and 00:08:34.066 --> 00:08:35.206 they should be rare 00:08:35.466 --> 00:08:38.636 when you do all the right things, when you diversify, when you have 00:08:38.656 --> 00:08:38.756 a 00:08:38.756 --> 00:08:39.546 plan in place. 00:08:39.546 --> 00:08:39.796 But 00:08:40.206 -->

00:08:41.106 at the end of the day, 00:08:41.106 --> 00:08:42.796 there are going to be prolonged 00:08:42.826 --> 00:08:43.346 periods 00:08:43.406 --> 00:08:45.366 of these perfect storms. 00:08:45.446 --> 00:08:45.886 I'll take 00:08:45.896 --> 00:08:46.366 kind of… 00:08:46.416 --> 00:08:46.956 You know, I know 00:08:46.956 --> 00:08:48.306 we were talking about fear-mongering on 00:08:48.306 --> 00:08:49.316 the last episode, but 00:08:49.346 --> 00:08:49.816 I'll, I'll 00:08:49.816 --> 00:08:50.876 fear-monger a little bit. 00:08:51.206 --> 00:08:54.986 If you're an investor who is ultra-concentrated in tech, think 00:08:55.076 --> 00:08:55.196 the 00:08:55.196 --> 00:09:01.876 Nasdaq-100, you bought in at the absolute height of the dot-com bubble before 00:09:01.906 --> 00:09:02.016 it 00:09:02.016 --> 00:09:02.996 actually burst. 00:09:03.606 --> 00:09:06.676 You were down 83 from peak to trough. 00:09:07.246 --> 00:09:11.296 It took you 16 years to actually break even 00:09:11.676 --> 00:09:12.076 and get 00:09:12.076 --> 00:09:12.276 that 00:09:12.276 --> 00:09:12.546 money 00:09:12.546 --> 00:09:13.876 back Why it's- That… 00:09:14.166 --> 00:09:14.676 Yeah. 00:09:14.836 --> 00:09:16.846 First of all, that's why you don't over-concentrate it. 00:09:16.846 --> 00:09:17.606 If you were a little 00:09:17.606 --> 00:09:17.776 bit 00:09:17.776 --> 00:09:18.756 diversified, instead 00:09:18.756 --> 00:09:19.896 of the of the 00:09:19.896 --> 00:09:20.796 Nasdaq-100, 00:09:20.796 --> 00:09:21.386 you invested in 00:09:21.386 --> 00:09:22.656 the S&P 500, 00:09:22.946 --> 00:09:23.826 so a little bit 00:09:23.826 --> 00:09:24.176 more 00:09:24.176 --> 00:09:25.256 diversification. 00:09:25.946 --> 00:09:26.436 Instead of 00:09:26.486 --> 00:09:30.816 83 that was 49 so, so better. 00:09:31.106 --> 00:09:33.816 And instead of 16 years, it took you 7.2 00:09:34.086 --> 00:09:34.526 years to 00:09:34.526 --> 00:09:35.536 actually recover. 00:09:36.076 --> 00:09:36.846 You can see here 00:09:36.846 --> 00:09:37.426 that's, that's 00:09:37.436 --> 00:09:38.436 the diversification piece. 00:09:38.436 --> 00:09:38.676 But 00:09:39.116 --> 00:09:40.056 either way, in any 00:09:40.056 --> 00:09:40.226 way 00:09:40.226 --> 00:09:41.306 you slice and dice it, 00:09:41.776 --> 00:09:44.066 that's a long time to be without your 00:09:44.096 --> 00:09:44.426 your 00:09:44.456 --> 00:09:46.706 capital and to be selling a 00:09:46.706 --> 00:09:47.866 dollar for, you 00:09:47.866 --> 00:09:50.106 know, potentially seventeen cents. 00:09:50.476 --> 00:09:51.646 That's not what you want to do. 00:09:51.686 --> 00:09:55.746 That is a permanent impairment of capital, And you 00:09:55.746 --> 00:09:56.606 need to have 00:09:56.776 --> 00:09:57.236 other 00:09:57.366 --> 00:09:58.766 other capital that's 00:09:59.116 --> 00:10:00.206 hopefully worth 00:10:00.276 --> 00:10:00.386 a 00:10:00.386 --> 00:10:01.556 dollar, if not 00:10:01.796 --> 00:10:03.006 close to a dollar, 00:10:03.286 --> 00:10:03.586 there 00:10:03.586 --> 00:10:04.146 to actually 00:10:04.146 --> 00:10:04.376 meet 00:10:04.376 --> 00:10:05.096 your, your 00:10:05.096 --> 00:10:07.736 needs your priorities So you 00:10:07.736 --> 00:10:07.986 don't 00:10:07.996 --> 00:10:08.826 have to 00:10:09.626 --> 00:10:12.876 either completely and drastically change your life. 00:10:12.886 --> 00:10:13.136 You know, 00:10:13.136 --> 00:10:14.026 we always have 00:10:14.026 --> 00:10:15.066 that wedding example. 00:10:15.066 --> 00:10:18.336 If you're getting married in two thousand and one in a situation like 00:10:18.336 --> 00:10:20.256 this, your three hundred-person wedding 00:10:20.256 --> 00:10:21.286 just turned into 00:10:21.616 --> 00:10:22.816 a sixty-person wedding. 00:10:22.826 --> 00:10:24.606 Have fun explaining that to 00:10:25.040 --> 00:10:26.220 your soon-to-be wife. 00:10:26.240 --> 00:10:28.500 Um, so we don't wanna do that. 00:10:28.510 --> 00:10:29.310 the other thing that 00:10:29.310 --> 00:10:30.540 we also don't wanna do is 00:10:30.840 --> 00:10:34.110 keep the $300 wedding, but now it's five times 00:10:34.120 --> 00:10:36.760 more expensive from kind of a household 00:10:36.760 --> 00:10:36.970 net 00:10:36.970 --> 00:10:37.940 worth standpoint. 00:10:37.940 --> 00:10:39.180 So that is, that 00:10:39.180 --> 00:10:39.750 is why you 00:10:39.750 --> 00:10:41.900 wanna protect your portfolio and, 00:10:42.260 --> 00:10:42.850 and build it 00:10:42.860 --> 00:10:43.620 strategically. 00:10:43.620 --> 00:10:43.850 These 00:10:43.850 --> 00:10:44.960 storms will happen. 00:10:45.390 --> 00:10:49.230 They're few and far between, hopefully, if public markets function 00:10:49.300 --> 00:10:50.090 efficiently. 00:10:50.460 --> 00:10:52.200 Uh, but if 00:10:52.240 --> 00:10:55.610 if you don't prepare for them in times like this, you can actually get wiped out. 00:10:55.630 --> 00:10:57.940 And that's, that is the biggest risk here. 00:10:57.940 --> 00:10:58.370 I would say 00:10:58.410 --> 00:10:58.870 that is a 00:10:58.870 --> 00:10:59.240 bigger 00:10:59.240 --> 00:10:59.560 risk 00:10:59.800 --> 00:11:00.340 than 00:11:00.750 --> 00:11:01.930 missing a percent 00:11:01.930 --> 00:11:02.000 or 00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:03.200 two on the year. 00:11:03.460 --> 00:11:04.540 Getting wiped out is 00:11:04.540 --> 00:11:06.420 something that you just can't come back from. 00:11:06.420 --> 00:11:06.430 100%. 00:11:06.522 --> 00:11:06.596 Justin: that you just 00:11:06.596 --> 00:11:06.689 can't come back from. 00:11:06.689 --> 00:11:11.482 One hundred percent, and I think that's a, uh, a differentiation between AWM 00:11:11.482 --> 00:11:15.552 and a lot of other, um, firms like ours out there in the world where 00:11:16.622 --> 00:11:18.802 w-we're prioritizing your 00:11:18.802 --> 00:11:19.652 priorities. 00:11:19.772 --> 00:11:20.142 We're saying 00:11:20.142 --> 00:11:22.582 money is a tool to do exactly what you just said.

00:11:22.862 --> 00:11:23.352 It's not 00:11:23.352 --> 00:11:23.422 a 00:11:23.422 --> 00:11:23.932 tool 00:11:24.162 --> 00:11:24.852 to 00:11:25.392 --> 00:11:26.712 second-guess yourself, 00:11:26.742 --> 00:11:27.352 go chase 00:11:27.352 --> 00:11:30.282 the Mag Seven, even though you already are diversified 00:11:30.282 --> 00:11:31.392 and you have exposure to them 00:11:31.392 --> 00:11:32.972 and, and they're benefiting you right now. 00:11:32.972 --> 00:11:33.542 Because, 00:11:33.872 --> 00:11:34.212 you know 00:11:34.232 --> 00:11:35.362 let's say the dot-com 00:11:35.362 --> 00:11:36.612 bubble repeats itself. 00:11:36.692 --> 00:11:38.942 It's not gonna be exactly in line with it. 00:11:38.942 --> 00:11:41.142 but you know, history repeats or it doesn't 00:11:41.152 --> 00:11:42.392 repeat, it rhymes kind of thing. 00:11:42.392 --> 00:11:42.602 Like, 00:11:43.922 --> 00:11:45.072 could that happen right now? 00:11:45.072 --> 00:11:45.182 I 00:11:45.182 --> 00:11:46.462 mean, some people are saying 00:11:46.462 --> 00:11:47.432 there's similarities 00:11:47.432 --> 00:11:49.532 to that dot-com bubble in certain parts of the market. 00:11:49.532 --> 00:11:49.902 And So, 00:11:50.272 --> 00:11:50.662 uh, 00:11:50.672 --> 00:11:54.832 f-reframing how to-- how we are investing money. 00:11:54.832 --> 00:11:57.332 You're not investing money to chase hype. 00:11:57.522 --> 00:11:57.852 You're not 00:11:57.852 --> 00:11:58.752 investing money 00:11:59.372 --> 00:12:00.492 for the fear of missing 00:12:00.492 --> 00:12:00.702 out. 00:12:00.702 --> 00:12:01.892 You're investing money 00:12:02.172 --> 00:12:02.412 to 00:12:02.412 --> 00:12:03.272 accomplish 00:12:03.342 --> 00:12:03.552 your 00:12:03.552 --> 00:12:06.502 priorities and protecting those priorities 00:12:06.832 --> 00:12:09.212 is what we do every single day in 00:12:09.212 --> 00:12:09.672 times 00:12:09.672 --> 00:12:10.452 where markets 00:12:10.682 --> 00:12:11.372 have just gone 00:12:11.372 --> 00:12:12.522 up and to the right with… 00:12:12.832 --> 00:12:13.102 Again, 00:12:13.102 --> 00:12:13.452 there's been 00:12:13.452 --> 00:12:14.142 volatility. 00:12:14.142 --> 00:12:14.602 It's been 00:12:14.812 --> 00:12:15.122 I think 00:12:15.122 --> 00:12:17.402 relatively sub-subdued over the last ten years, 00:12:17.402 --> 00:12:18.362 certainly, versus, you 00:12:18.362 --> 00:12:21.312 know, twenty-plus, going back to dot-com, The 00:12:21.312 --> 00:12:21.502 great 00:12:21.502 --> 00:12:23.002 financial crisis, The 00:12:23.052 --> 00:12:23.382 early 00:12:23.402 --> 00:12:24.322 2010s 00:12:24.412 --> 00:12:24.622 or 00:12:24.752 --> 00:12:25.842 aught, whatever they call it. 00:12:25.852 --> 00:12:26.052 Like, 00:12:26.222 --> 00:12:27.192 that, that was an interesting 00:12:27.192 --> 00:12:27.942 period in the markets. 00:12:27.942 --> 00:12:28.042 I 00:12:28.542 --> 00:12:28.682 I 00:12:28.942 --> 00:12:30.602 experienced that and so kind of have the 00:12:30.602 --> 00:12:31.302 battle scars 00:12:31.302 --> 00:12:31.602 to, 00:12:31.602 --> 00:12:33.592 uh, to to tell 00:12:33.602 --> 00:12:34.442 those tales. 00:12:34.722 --> 00:12:35.282 And 00:12:36.112 --> 00:12:36.762 it's painful. 00:12:36.782 --> 00:12:37.282 It happens. 00:12:37.282 --> 00:12:38.792 and You need to protect against those, 00:12:40.062 --> 00:12:40.522 Giving 00:12:40.522 --> 00:12:40.762 up 00:12:40.792 --> 00:12:41.372 the extra 00:12:41.372 --> 00:12:45.662 one or two percent so you can accomplish what is absolutely 00:12:45.662 --> 00:12:48.952 most important to you in life and have that, that-- hopefully, that 00:12:48.952 --> 00:12:49.662 peace of mind. 00:12:49.802 --> 00:12:51.502 it's a it's a different reframing. 00:12:51.542 --> 00:12:52.332 It is, the uh 00:12:52.432 --> 00:12:52.672 that 00:12:52.692 --> 00:12:53.362 that concept. 00:12:53.622 --> 00:12:54.022 Money is a 00:12:54.022 --> 00:12:54.202 tool 00:12:54.202 --> 00:12:55.942 to accomplish what's most important to you. 00:12:56.132 --> 00:12:56.742 This is how you 00:12:56.742 --> 00:12:57.122 should 00:12:57.352 --> 00:12:58.032 invest 00:12:58.252 --> 00:12:58.412 to 00:12:58.412 --> 00:12:58.892 do that, 00:12:58.922 --> 00:12:59.152 right? 00:12:59.162 --> 00:12:59.552 This is 00:12:59.552 --> 00:12:59.672 how 00:12:59.672 --> 00:13:00.452 you should invest 00:13:00.802 --> 00:13:00.992 to 00:13:01.382 --> 00:13:02.022 accomplish that 00:13:02.052 --> 00:13:02.332 over the 00:13:02.332 --> 00:13:06.132 short term and over that hundred-year journey that we talk 00:13:06.142 --> 00:13:06.432 about 00:13:06.440 --> 00:13:06.744 Mena Hanna: a 00:13:06.744 --> 00:13:07.011 bit. 00:13:07.102 --> 00:13:07.308 Yeah. 00:13:07.308 --> 00:13:08.108 And you sort of 00:13:08.108 --> 00:13:08.958 highlighted this, 00:13:08.978 --> 00:13:09.408 uh, 00:13:09.418 --> 00:13:11.578 briefly, but it has been an 00:13:11.578 --> 00:13:12.988 extremely long period of time. 00:13:12.998 --> 00:13:15.168 Like, I forget that 2008 00:13:15.178 --> 00:13:16.368 was eighteen years ago. 00:13:16.368 --> 00:13:16.638 It's 00:13:16.968 --> 00:13:17.188 sort 00:13:17.188 --> 00:13:19.118 of shocking when you, when you say it out loud. 00:13:19.128 --> 00:13:19.418 That, 00:13:19.748 --> 00:13:20.988 that is a long time ago. 00:13:21.008 --> 00:13:21.208 There 00:13:21.208 --> 00:13:21.918 are people that 00:13:21.918 --> 00:13:22.258 just 00:13:22.618 --> 00:13:23.208 forget 00:13:23.218 --> 00:13:26.528 the the historical lessons and, and the financial 00:13:26.528 --> 00:13:26.768 call 00:13:26.768 --> 00:13:27.748 it fundamentals 00:13:27.748 --> 00:13:27.938 and, 00:13:28.278 --> 00:13:30.098 and physics when things stretch 00:13:30.098 --> 00:13:30.658 out that far. 00:13:30.658 --> 00:13:31.008 So 00:13:31.278 --> 00:13:32.288 I would say that is a big 00:13:32.308 --> 00:13:33.098 differentiator in 00:13:33.108 --> 00:13:34.998 how we, how we approach things.

00:13:34.998 --> 00:13:36.678 We wanna be ready for that, you 00:13:36.678 --> 00:13:38.038 know, five-and-a-half-year drawdown. 00:13:38.308 --> 00:13:39.678 We wanna be ready for 00:13:40.058 --> 00:13:40.618 the seven, 00:13:40.628 --> 00:13:41.828 the ten-year drawdown 00:13:41.898 --> 00:13:42.158 if 00:13:42.158 --> 00:13:42.958 that happens. 00:13:43.728 --> 00:13:44.068 Because 00:13:44.068 --> 00:13:44.238 if 00:13:44.238 --> 00:13:45.278 you're not and 00:13:45.288 --> 00:13:45.718 it's 00:13:45.748 --> 00:13:46.878 it's a ten-year drawdown 00:13:46.908 --> 00:13:48.608 and you have to dip into it, like you… 00:13:48.638 --> 00:13:48.878 like 00:13:48.878 --> 00:13:49.898 we've we've said, 00:13:50.298 --> 00:13:52.848 it is an impairment of capital that you just can't come 00:13:52.848 --> 00:13:53.348 back from. 00:13:53.348 --> 00:13:53.738 So 00:13:54.028 --> 00:13:54.598 that is, that 00:13:54.598 --> 00:13:55.288 is definitely 00:13:55.288 --> 00:13:57.248 a different philosophical approach. 00:13:57.548 --> 00:13:59.888 Um, but yeah, it is something 00:13:59.888 --> 00:14:01.078 that prevents, call it 00:14:02.158 --> 00:14:03.328 cat-catastrophe. 00:14:03.328 --> 00:14:03.362 Yeah. 00:14:03.386 --> 00:14:04.146 Justin: Yeah, Totally. 00:14:04.146 --> 00:14:04.636 And, and 00:14:04.636 --> 00:14:06.366 it really impacts 00:14:07.676 --> 00:14:09.946 you listeners, all of us, 00:14:10.346 --> 00:14:11.616 accomplishing that goal of 00:14:11.646 --> 00:14:12.906 the, the 100-year family. 00:14:12.906 --> 00:14:14.966 So, um, we'll wrap 00:14:14.986 --> 00:14:15.306 there, 00:14:15.316 --> 00:14:15.866 hopefully. 00:14:15.866 --> 00:14:16.106 uh 00:14:16.146 --> 00:14:16.616 just again, 00:14:16.616 --> 00:14:18.176 a kind of helpful conversation, 00:14:18.186 --> 00:14:18.536 a little bit 00:14:18.536 --> 00:14:20.846 of back and forth between Mina and myself, 00:14:20.876 --> 00:14:21.506 um, 00:14:21.626 --> 00:14:25.176 uh, on what we're always keeping in 00:14:25.176 --> 00:14:25.646 mind when 00:14:25.646 --> 00:14:27.466 we're, we're, constructing portfolios and even 00:14:27.466 --> 00:14:28.626 having conversations, 00:14:28.896 --> 00:14:29.926 uh, both internally and 00:14:29.936 --> 00:14:30.646 externally. 00:14:30.976 --> 00:14:32.056 Um, right? 00:14:32.066 --> 00:14:34.276 It's a, it's a, it's a reframing, if you 00:14:34.276 --> 00:14:34.786 will, and, 00:14:34.786 --> 00:14:35.096 and 00:14:35.116 --> 00:14:36.336 really, really important to 00:14:36.476 --> 00:14:36.636 to 00:14:36.636 --> 00:14:37.836 reiterate the, the, 00:14:38.156 --> 00:14:38.946 the idea of 00:14:38.946 --> 00:14:39.896 protecting 00:14:40.176 --> 00:14:43.626 what is truly most important to you so you can accomplish that goal of the 00:14:43.626 --> 00:14:44.446 100-year family. 00:14:44.716 --> 00:14:45.536 Um, but yeah, 00:14:45.536 --> 00:14:47.406 hopefully, hopefully the conversation is helpful. 00:14:47.676 --> 00:14:48.336 Um, 00:14:48.606 --> 00:14:50.156 n-no ringing of bells 00:14:50.156 --> 00:14:51.126 or anything like that. 00:14:51.196 --> 00:14:55.946 Uh, we don't know exactly what the future will, uh, will, will, unfold or how it 00:14:55.946 --> 00:14:56.106 will 00:14:56.106 --> 00:14:56.816 unfold, but 00:14:56.816 --> 00:14:57.286 it's always 00:14:57.286 --> 00:14:57.666 a a 00:14:57.686 --> 00:14:58.476 healthy reminder 00:14:58.476 --> 00:14:58.866 to 00:14:58.896 --> 00:14:59.016 to 00:14:59.016 --> 00:14:59.216 check 00:14:59.216 --> 00:14:59.796 yourself, right? 00:14:59.796 --> 00:15:00.836 To, to, 00:15:00.886 --> 00:15:01.126 be 00:15:01.176 --> 00:15:02.006 potentially mentally 00:15:02.006 --> 00:15:02.896 prepared, to have that 00:15:02.896 --> 00:15:03.506 plan ahead of 00:15:03.506 --> 00:15:03.786 time. 00:15:03.786 --> 00:15:03.966 and 00:15:03.966 --> 00:15:04.356 and we 00:15:04.356 --> 00:15:04.706 do. 00:15:04.726 --> 00:15:09.346 We're protecting your assets, your priorities in, in, this way. 00:15:09.346 --> 00:15:09.676 So, 00:15:09.966 --> 00:15:11.216 uh, if you have any questions, 00:15:11.216 --> 00:15:11.396 shoot 00:15:11.406 --> 00:15:11.526 Mena Hanna: us 00:15:11.526 --> 00:15:11.891 a text. 00:15:11.908 --> 00:15:14.326 Six two six, eight six two, zero three five five 00:15:14.412 --> 00:15:16.992 Justin: And until next time, own your wealth, make an impact, 00:15:17.122 --> 00:15:18.502 and always be a pro. 00:15:18.562 --> 00:15:19.272 Thanks for listening