Is the Western Games Industry Dying? | Smart & Wright EP10: täielik transkriptsioon

something million at the moment, which they're insane numbers anyway, let's face it. But when you compare that to the top mobile games at the moment, the the over the same period what the revenue is generated from those games, even one of those, the top top game was still it was still I think it was around four hundred, four hundred million, five hundred million, something like that. over the same time period. So but that's ongoing, obviously. There's nothing that's exactly there's nothing out of the ordinary, that's not a pre order period. That's not a that's just running of the game. So speaker-1: Yeah, that's probably not at the peak either, Adam, That's so we're talking about speaker-0: No no no particular game's quite an old game, so speaker-1: Exactly, you know, exactly. That's s I mean we we spoke about this briefly before, but it's it's the same as like, you know, Candy Crush and Royal Match and Honor of Kings. I mean Honor of Kings is a little bit different because it does have like PC presence as well, but it it's it is yeah, there there there is something to be said about like the amount of hype that a game like GTA six will generate, especially 'cause it was two billion budget, right? So you spend two billion speaker-0: Even so, when you look at the when you look at the take two earnings, it's still like mobile is still sort of pretty much equal to PC and console. Like even even with GTA. I mean, obviously the next earnings cool is when GTA is really gonna sort of shine for for take two earnings. speaker-1: Then I'll push it back again. speaker-0: But it'd be interesting to see just how how much that ratio changes, like, or if that ratio changes in actual fact. Like it's gonna be it's gonna be I'm I'm wondering if if there's we've we've done ten episodes and probably four of them have been about this. So it's it's kind of a an interesting area for us as to where this is going over the next few years. But I I kind of feel like there is this shift going on at the moment and maybe multiple shifts. Maybe there's like the generational change, you know, I've talked about that a few times where where the younger generation is sort of the ones that are maybe having more disposable income, less families, more time to play, that kind of thing. And they're starting to take over from the previous generation who was more into real-time strategy games, for instance. and so the the types of games are changing. it's now moving across to to the the iPad based games or the tablet based games instead of the sort of hundred hour RPG games that speaker-1: Yeah, PG, yeah. speaker-0: my generation was was big fans of. So you know, th I think there's multiple shifts happening in the market at the same time and maybe that's where this this this sort of fear of the the death of the industry is coming in. 'Cause it's it's not really, is it? speaker-1: No, look, I to put it plainly, mate, I think it's a load of bollocks. like quite frankly, are are we not performing as well as previous years in the Western sort game community? Yes. Have we seen large layoffs in the industry? Yes. But if you look at the employment numbers now compared to like five years ago before the COVID boom, the the employment numbers in games are relatively the same, right? Like what we saw was like this unpredictable event with COVID where games revenue went up dramatically so loads of people hired and then the operating expense of the businesses went up but it was okay whilst the revenue was up. Yeah. And then a lot of people had to make some very aggressive speaker-0: Come on, the amount of projects that must have got the go ahead when that much money was being poured into companies and then all of a sudden that money stops, which everyone said it was going to stop, but it still came as a bit of a surprise. And then everybody's like, I maybe I wouldn't have done that had I have realized that we weren't gonna have this extra revenue bundle. speaker-1: Exactly, mate. I think there's a lot of games that have been killed in the last twenty four months because of this exact reason. Like when they were doing projections, they were doing projections i you know, a couple of years ago when that we were peaking, right? And they were doing it against those things. Even yesterday speaker-0: But I think I think mobiles already hit that. that because of the speed of development, I think mobile's already hit that speed bump. Whereas PC console, it's a much slower development cycle, the way it goes along. Yeah. And I I think they're now or like this last year, probably going into next year, they're now hitting those speed bumps of of that change. speaker-1: Yeah. But but look, I think Yeah, there there has been th this course correction. There has been you know, studios closing and layoffs happening and look, whilst I don't agree with agree with a lot of them, you know, I think some of them have been rational decisions. Like, you know, bioware closing for example, whilst from a personal perspective I was very sad the studio hasn't launched a game a successful game in a decade. new bioware or sorry the new Mass Effect games coming out but they must have have not had the kind of metrics that or or the numbers that they needed. not all by a bit speaker-0: But they were cost they were saying about the cost of it was a two two hundred million game, which in this in this age, I understand before now, and again, like we were talking about during COVID times when there was the bar everything else. That's great. But now I don't feel like a two hundred two hundred million dollar game can compete with the the the the games that are coming out of China, the games that are coming out of APAC at the moment. speaker-1: Yeah, look, unless you can find another like Claire Obscure, right, which obviously production budget, etcetera, was was speaker-0: That that that wasn't out of nothing, was it? there there's been a there's been a lot in the press of like

this is this is sprung out of nowhere. It's been been a but there is a story behind that game that the the people have come from you know the the the right companies in the first place. Yeah everything is we've had investment, everything. It's it's not like it's just like one guy on his own decided to spin this game speaker-1: And this is this is the thing that they they they always rapport, which is I think is hilarious. They're like, it was a team of thirty six people, I think. And then you look at the credits and there was four hundred people credited. And it's because they had thirty six staff and then they had three hundred and something speaker-0: Yeah. speaker-1: contractors or something. You're like I can't remember if those are the actual numbers, but I remember it was they quoted thirty, but there was three, four hundred on speaker-0: But it it's nice to have something to to aspire towards. But at the same time is that is that misleading in itself speaker-1: I f I think it is and look, I'll ultimately mate like and again we've had this debate a number of times, but I think the the one saving grace that we have in the West is we still have huge amounts of creativity and we're we've we've you know for forty, fifty years, we have been the ones who came up with the ideas for for concepts, for IP, for for generational entertainment, right? So so from that regard and and but the Chinese in terms of execution and is just is just next level, right? you can't you can't beat the teams that they have with the numbers they have. qu quite s a lot of people will tell you otherwise, Adam, but the facts is, you know, whoever has the most people and the most money, right, is likely to to be able to develop faster and be more successful. Okay? Because they have the resources and speaker-0: And I guess you get far more attempts. You get you get many, many, many more attempts at at doing that. speaker-1: Do you remember I think it was Tencent, where they they actually did something which I thought was super aggressive, but it was something I would have done. They they had two studios build the same game. And it was like that scene. Yeah, mate, speaker-0: Yeah yeah. speaker-1: it was like that scene from Batman where Joker breaks the pork cue off his off his knee and goes throws it down and goes, Triads. It was speaker-0: Yeah. speaker-1: like three guys with a pork trying to kill each other and whoever won't s was like ten cents in speaker-0: That's what tens did. speaker-1: real life. So but But v very aggressive, but come on man, if speaker-0: then mobile's always had that to a certain extent. If you're if you're a mobile house that's got multiple games, they're very often played off against each other in terms of growth and everything else. the generally revenue within the company and that kind of thing, there's there's always a bit of competition there. But that's healthy, I it I look, spawns you on. speaker-1: Look mate, my my dad, God bless his slow,

used to say you only get better playing like better opposition, right? Yeah. and and like competition for me has always been positive and healthy. I think because gaming also has a lot of introverted people who don't like maybe confrontation and such, it hasn't been something that has been moulded in a lot of teams, especially I think Western teams. Whereas I think The Asian teams, this is their culture. Yeah. You know? And and I think that has that is a positive thing. But but again, I've always grown up with playing sports and that was just the nature of what what we did to succeed, to win, to be the best, you know. yeah. Another classic line was second is only first place loser. You know, so it's like if you're not if you're not speaker-0: First. That reminds me of the old Ricky Bobby, if you're not first you're last. speaker-1: Exactly, ring about me. Tom Bruce, help me. Help me Tom Bruce. I do love a Will Farrell film. speaker-0: I don't know what to do. speaker-1: but no, but like so so I think it does come back to if we can't beat them in execution, Adam, and we can't beat them in resources, so money and people and talent, etc., tools, tech, all of this that stuff. The only the only thing we can do is continue to be creative, agile and and and use innovation. and I think, you know, this is where, just going on to to sort of the AI conversation, I think this is where, big projects that have big budgets, they have high levels of risk. And I think really what we're gonna see over the next ten years is and we're already seeing it in terms of the rise of indie on Steam, right? Yeah but what what we're gonna see is big studios in the West are gonna be more creative and they're gonna spend less and teams will be fewer and AI development will be more. And at the moment there's a little bit of backlash in the Steam and console community about that. But I saw a study recently where sentiment had improved eighty percent year over year in terms of AI in in games. So I think in the next couple of years, especially if with the younger the younger audiences, but I think the people who are kicking up a fuss about AI in games are people, in millennials essentially, people who grew up with third speaker-0: I did a piece for gaming on phone, I think it was recently that they that it was all about the what happens when the the first company comes out and says, actually that was made of made with AI, you know, like one of these metacritic ninety eight, ninety seven percent you know, they when they come out and say, Ha ha, got ya you know, what happens then? Because you're not if you like the game, you're not gonna suddenly turn around and go, actually it was crap because it was made with AI. speaker-1: Yeah. No, no. speaker-0: people will, obviously. speaker-1: And and look, mate, I think what was it, Crimson Desert came out and said they they used AI in a lot of different parts and especially for placeholder acts. speaker-0: This game is freaking awesome. speaker-1: It's a it makes them be one of the games of the year, right? and and so there's gonna be more public acknowledgement and and there will be an improving public sentiment as as things go along. And again, if you start splitting this by demographic, I think the younger audience is Who ultimately end up being the ones who spend money and and more accessible money like you said earlier. But they're the ones that we need to please. And it it goes back to the to the age old always listen or or don't listen to the loud minority, right? The loud minority make you make bad decisions. Yeah. they they are the reason why businesses sometimes develop something that has no value. Your your your silent majority are the people you should care about, right? Yeah. And that that's if you're building a SaaS company, if you're building a game studio, go to where the bulk of people want you to to be. and I think sometimes we forget that. But but yeah, I think it's still a case of I I'm still very sure, Adam, that we in the West are gonna continue to be successful. I think there will just be some changes. speaker-0: Actually, I want to ask you something. So I've seen a lot of different there was there was BlizzCon recently, or yeah, a little while ago now. Yeah. speaker-1: Yeah it was about a month or so ago. speaker-0: Right, yeah. There's there's there's the new card come out, there's yeah, there's it's got the best reviews of time. There's it it kind of feels to me slightly that the West has stepped up recently. I'm starting to see or it's starting to feel like there's this plethora of games being thrown at me right now and I don't have the time to play them all, but I want to Yeah, for sure. and it seems to be that seems to be snowballing, and I I it it feels like actually this is this is the tide is changing. speaker-1: Yeah. Mate, look, ultimately the strong survive, right? And and again, as we just said, competition makes people improve. It makes you evolve. It makes you become smarter and faster and better at what you do. So I think the continued pressure from Asia will will force two things. One, more studio closes, right? Because they just can't exist and and the buttons speaker-0: Or not exist in in the old sense of in the old model, yeah. speaker-1: Exactly. And the bar's so high now. But if the bar is being is is rising, then the games that pass the bar are also gonna be better, right? Yeah. And and I think again, we are seeing, a lot of games come to market in the last year that are potentially, some of the best games that have ever been created. and unfortunately God of War has been pushed back. I was looking forward to it. But the first two two editions have been, tremendous and and or or the first two games of this series, right? Not the traditional ones. But you know, like I I get why studios want to push stuff back now because the bar is higher and you you know, you don't want to have this whole like cyberpunk situation where you go live, it's buggy, you lose loads of money, you have to spend like four hundred million on marketing to try and change the sentiment. So so I think yeah speaker-0: So much more I want to talk about on that as well, 'cause I want to talk about Triple A on mobile and everything. We'll do that in another one. We'll do that. speaker-1: We'll we'll do that another one. But but like I said, I think i ultimately where my gut is, things are becoming harder for us in the West. We're getting continued pressure from the East. That pressure will speaker-0: Either But you've also got the economical pressure at the moment as well, which I don't think that obviously that doesn't help in the slightest. speaker-1: Yeah, but look look, like I said, Adam, look, press pressure makes diamonds, mate. And speaker-0: It does. speaker-1: and I'm I'm thinking and but look, I'm also a naturally a positive person, happy go lucky person. But I strongly believe that all of the stuff that's happened over the last couple of years will make our industry stronger. Yeah and we are gonna tap into another growth pocket. I know we're in a mature market now, but I'm I'm telling you, something will happen eventually, which will click. I don't know if it's gonna like another hyper casual era or I can't tell you what it is, but I just I just think we're speaker-0: I thought yeah actually another episode that I want to do at some point is is looking at consoles and the the the impact of price hikes, the impact of of or the comparison between console and mobile, 'cause I I kind of feel like it is at an inflection point at the moment and there is like this this opening for something to just explode out of it, which which is different to what is there currently. So I I'd I I'd love to love to go through that at some point. But we are kind of out of time. So that's a nice teaser for future episodes though, so. speaker-1: That's it, we've got plenty in the pipeline. And if if anyone has any what we haven't actually done yet, Adam, if anyone has if by the way, we are taking requests. We do we do request listener, we're taking requests. DJ big Adam Smart on the one speaker-0: Love a bit of spice, girls. speaker-1: But no, if anyone has any suggestions for episodes, stuff you want us to talk about, please also you know write in the comments and and tell us what you want because we're happy to to tailor it to to what what the audience needs. speaker-0: And on that I we should say thank you very much once again to our sponsors, and we'll we'll we'll be off, I guess. speaker-1: That's it. See you next week. speaker-0: Yeah.