Dynasty Trade Values: Biggest Buy Lows, Sell Highs & 2027 Draft Pick Strategy (Ep. 406): täielik transkriptsioon

Jamison Williams, Sam Laporta, and the occasional Isaac to SLA target. And of course, Jacob, uh, you know, or, um, jameer gibbs sorry jacob gibbs i'm thinking of my buddy from cbs who's. 00:06:01 Speaker 1: Been on the show uh i did pull up by the way while you're talking the fantasy pros with or without you tool um you can kind of see players splits depending on who's on the field with them jameson williams averages over five points per game fewer in ppr scoring with sam laporte on the field that's dating back to the beginning of 2025 um so when he's on there he is getting you know about So it's about a 15 fantasy points per game when he's not on the field and about 10 when he's on the field, going back to that point. So there is a difference there. Typically you can check out with that sort of tool. Bob, before we wrap up any, any quick thoughts on the Laporta factor here? 00:06:39 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:06:39 Speaker 3: I mean, I understand it. 00:06:40 Speaker 1: Right. 00:06:42 Speaker 3: But I still like the amount, the, the amount of targets that James Williams is getting, he's just doing, he's start catching the ball, sticking the ball over the line a little bit. And, Instead of going down at the six inch line, like Fitzy said, and we're going to boom way more. And I think we're going to get it pretty quick from Jamison here. 00:06:59 Speaker 1: If you play in a serious dynasty league, you should check out League Tycoon, the official dynasty football sponsor of the Fantasy Pros Dynasty podcast. It's a modern fantasy football platform built specifically for dynasty leagues, not redraft. Standard dynasty leagues on League Tycoon are completely free. League Tycoon has tools for serious dynasty leagues, slow auction drafts with 20 plus players at once. Trade auctions, draft lotteries, compensatory picks, and league history import with no ads or sportsbook clutter. And if your league wants to go even deeper, League Tycoon also offers Contract Dynasty with multi-year contracts, extensions, rookie deals, tags, restricted free agency tenders. Standard Dynasty is free for everyone. And for Contract Dynasty Leagues, use promo code PROS to get your first season free. Start your free Dynasty League today at LeagueTycoon.com. And for Contract Dynasty Leagues, that's promo code PROS to get your first season free. League Tycoon, the official Dynasty football sponsor. of the Fantasy Pros Dynasty podcast. All right, Bogman, who is your first buy low? 00:07:55 Speaker 3: We're going to go with Justin Herbert. And I know that's probably triggering a lot of people now. Not everybody wants to buy Justin Herbert. The Chargers' entire offense has looked miserable so far this season. 00:08:08 Speaker 2: And I. 00:08:10 Speaker 3: Just want to remind everybody about his finishes, right? 10th, 14th, 12th, 15th, 2nd, and 9th. So never below. 00:08:19 Speaker 3: QB 15 in a season, not once. And he's had five OCs in seven seasons, right? So got a lot of turnover here. There's a lot of growing pains in a new offensive system that we're seeing right now, obviously. And it hasn't looked good. And I understand people are frustrated. But because managers are frustrated, I think this is a good time to buy low, specifically in a super flex league. We've talked about it on this show many, many times, how hard it is to trade for someone a quarterback specifically in a super flex league, right? You always have to overpay because the math, maths, and not everybody can get three. So I think that buying Herbert now when he's at rock bottom prices, most likely is the thing to do. I think smart managers probably aren't selling him now because they know that, but there are people that are definitely frustrated and someone's hoarding a quarterback that has Justin Herbert in a league somewhere. So just make sure it's not your league. Go check. and see if you can buy him right now. But like I said, all of these pieces, I think, are going to get better. I thought about putting Hampton here as well. I thought about just any piece of the Chargers offense, I think, can be bought for cheaper than usual right now. But I do think Justin Herbert is going to get better. Currently, he's QB 24 in points per game. So he's not on that Drake May type of regression that we're seeing. What is he, QB 34? And when there's 32 teams, it's kind of crazy right now. But I do think that we are going to see better days of Justin Herbert and this entire offense. Now, is it going to come within the next two weeks? Probably not. Right. But specifically, if you are rebuilding, I think it is a absolutely great time to go on by Justin Herbert. I think we're going to see way better things out of him in the future. Is he ever going to be a consistent QB one? I don't know. I think he has the ability to get there, but a high-end QB2 to mid-range QB2 is the absolute floor, as shown by his finishes and fantasy points per game every single season here. 15 is the low, and last year he was a QB1, a QB10. I think that things are going to get better here under McDaniel. They have enough skill position pieces. It's just about working through the problems with the offensive line, working through the drop problems. And really, I don't think this is the type of regression that, you know, like CJ Stroud has had, like some of these other QBs have had. I think this one is probably more from a lot of play calling and a lot of bad decisions early in this system. I think this will get worked out by the end of the year. 00:11:10 Speaker 1: He's dropped three spots fits in the consensus dynasty rankings amongst quarterbacks in the last week. He was QB eight this time a week ago. He's now QB 11. So, you know, rankers are starting to adjust to this very slow start in the Mike McDaniel offense so far. Does he feel to you like somebody who obviously like this is, We talk on other shows about how sometimes you might call a player a buy, but it's a buy high, not a buy low. Herbert is a

definition of a buy low right now if you are going after him. Is he somebody that you're willing to move any real draft capital for to go get in a super flex league? 00:11:46 Speaker 2: It depends on what the price is, and I know he seems like a buy low, but if there's someone in my league holding him and someone who can afford to part with a quarterback— Am I going to get a buy low price? That's what I don't know because I feel like the current Justin Herbert stakeholders are still going to be selling him as the player he was expected to be this year and has not been thus far. That is my fear that they are still holding onto this ideal of Justin Herbert rather than the reality, which is a guy playing in a flawed situation. Quentin Johnston is stunk this year. Just take him off the field and put Trey Harris on the field. Trey Harris, exactly. What are we waiting for? Or Ronda Gadsden Jr. 00:12:39 Speaker 3: Hasn't looked good either. I hate to say it. And all the rest of the tight ends are hurt. 00:12:44 Speaker 2: And the middle of the offensive line is still a problem. And Mike McDaniel has not been the solution yet. So, and We have to pin some of the blame on Herbert too. Like he has not elevated this offense himself. 00:12:57 Speaker 3: Tom Brady sure did. 00:12:59 Speaker 2: Yeah. So man, I, I just, I don't know if we're ever getting the ideal Justin Herbert. And I feel like you're still going to be asked to pay that price. And I'm not willing to pay that price anymore. I mean, I agree with what you said, Boggs, like that the floor is high and to mid range QB too. But I just think the stakeholders are going to ask for more than that. 00:13:23 Speaker 1: He's, like I said, QB 11 in consensus fits. Just gut reaction, is that too high, too low, just right for you? I'm looking at the names directly ahead of him, Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence. I feel like I would definitely take those guys. Just last week, we talked about Purdy versus Herbert on this show, and I remember like, I don't know. Purdy just looks very good and is two years younger. Those guys feel like they should be ahead of him. Behind Dak Prescott, there's a five-year age gap there. Jared Goff, there's a three-year age gap there. Bo Nix, is he actually any good? Jordan Love has struggled. Tyler Shuck, him versus Herbert is just interesting because Shuck keeps producing. I'm not really sure how to pinpoint where Herbert's ranking should be. It feels about right to me on gut reaction. 00:14:05 Speaker 3: I got him at 12. 00:14:07 Speaker 2: About right. 00:14:07 Speaker 3: I had him at 7 going into the year, and I have him at 12 now. I did move him down, but it's still a good time to buy. 00:14:14 Speaker 2: The guys I would struggle with there and that I'm going to struggle with tonight when I do a Dynasty... ranking sweep that I need to do. Um, Tyler Shuck and Jordan Love. Like, I feel like watching them, I, and Jordan Love has some adverse circumstances too, but I feel like Jordan Love is a better passer than Justin Herbert is. And I think EPA per drop back in recent years, like that would sort of back me up on that. Love has been pretty good in the categories that sort of filter out for just, you know, pure passing ability. And, um, Shuck is, I mean, the dude scores points. The only thing was if Shuck was a normal-aged rookie, that would be an easier call, but Shuck probably isn't that much younger than Justin Herbert. 00:14:58 Speaker 1: He's listed as age 27 on the Fantasy Pros rankings, and Herbert is 28, so they're a year apart. I don't know the exact where they are in that year, but they're like a year apart. One more, actually. Mendoza versus Herbert. We haven't seen Mendoza fail yet, And it seems like this offense is going to be pretty good, like just with Clint Kubiak and some of these pieces. And when Mendoza gets the chance, it might look really nice. But there's also the risk that we haven't seen him succeed yet. And we have seen Herbert do some pretty awesome things at the NFL level. That one, I think Herbert should be ranked ahead. But how wide is that gap for you, Fitz, do you think? 00:15:35 Speaker 2: Narrow. And I might even make that straight up if I'm basically folding my hand and have Justin Herbert. I might offer the Mendoza stakeholder that deal straight up. 00:15:49 Speaker 3: I got Mendoza at 15. I got Herbert at 12. 00:15:51 Speaker 1: Okay, so not a wide gap there. 00:15:54 Speaker 3: Still three spots, but different tier. 00:15:57 Speaker 2: I shouldn't say straight up. I'd want maybe a little juice, like throw in a second. You know, here is a quarterback who is playing right now. 00:16:05 Speaker 3: Right. 00:16:07 Speaker 2: But then again, I mean, that person took Fernando Mendoza 102. So are they willing to part with that sort of draft capital for a quarterback who hasn't played well this year? 00:16:18 Speaker 1: I have Mendoza in a league where I'm a win-now team. I just had a lot of injuries last year, which is why I had the second pick. And my quarterbacks are Love, Stroud, and Mendoza. So I'm sitting here thinking, like, well, Stroud doesn't look that good. Love's been up and down. Maybe a Mendoza for Herbert. Some version of that might be a move to look at. So that's why I wanted to bring him up. Let's go to your next buy low here, Fitz. 00:16:43 Speaker 2: It's Emmitt Johnson. And I don't know that he's necessarily a buy low anymore. I think there's a buying opportunity simply because he is blocked by Kenneth Walker, who obviously there's not going to be a substantial role for Emmett Johnson as long as Kenneth Walker is playing great. I know Bogman assumes he's going to go down next week. Kenneth Walker is with some sort of injury, but he is a valuable handcuff. Maybe you can't pry Emmett Johnson away from the Kenneth Walker shareholder in your league who might have him handcuffed. But if someone has Emmett Johnson independently of Kenneth Walker and that team is a contender now, I'd

be willing to throw the Emmett Johnson person like DK Metcalf to go after it now, who's among the NFL target leaders, who's among the NFL air yards leaders. Emmett Johnson has just looked really good in brief spurts as a runner and receiver, he looks like he belongs in the NFL. And that dual threat ability he has, which he showed at the University of Nebraska, too, makes him appealing, even though he has this obstacle of playing time this year. So I would still love to have him on my team long term if I'm rebuilding or retooling this year. 00:18:08 Speaker 1: Two. sort of make the point about him, there being a buying opportunity. He's currently ranked in consensus dynasty rankings, one spot behind Tyrone Tracy jr. 00:18:17 Speaker 3: Oh my God. 00:18:18 Speaker 1: Like that. Just, you should just, nobody should want to have Tracy more than they would want to have him at Johnson. 00:18:23 Speaker 3: Right. 00:18:23 Speaker 1: I mean, it makes no sense. 00:18:24 Speaker 2: I think if you forced all of our rankers to do updates and it, it's hard to do dynasty rankings updates in season because people are doing weekly rankings, rest of season rankings. Um, but there's no way Tracy would lag in, Emmett Johnson or would be ahead of Emmett Johnson right now if you asked rankers to rank right now. 00:18:45 Speaker 1: Yeah, you would think that that would be changed a little. I'm going to see just if updating here, Bogman, while you talk, what it looks like if I put a recency filter on the rankings. But what do you think about Emmett Johnson? 00:18:56 Speaker 3: I love Emmett Johnson. I have him rostered on all my redrafts on any dynasty I possibly could. You guys know the reason I wasn't into Ken Walker is because of the You know, the history of soft tissue things and the fact that he hasn't had more than 257 touches in a year. So at this pace, he's going to have that by week eight. You know, I mean, it's ridiculous what he's doing right now. And by the way, I don't ever root for injuries. I hope Ken Walker makes it to the season. I hope he has 500 touches. I hope he's the next Larry Johnson. 00:19:27 Speaker 2: Right. 00:19:27 Speaker 3: I don't think it happens, though. Right. There's wishing. And wanting and then being realistic and realistically, Ken Walker's gotten banged up when he's given too many touches. And right now he's had at least 20 touches in every single game. So I think he's being a little bit overused. So it means one of two things. Either he's going to break down and Emmett Johnson's going to have a full-time role, or the more likely thing, they're going to start spreading the ball around a little bit more and Emmett Johnson gets more touches and carries and continues to prove himself, which is what I think should happen. So either way, we see a bump coming for Emmett Johnson in the near future. So I think it is absolutely a great time to get him right now. 00:20:09 Speaker 1: With a filter of just rankers who have updated within the

last week, Emmitt Johnson is ahead of Tyrone Tracy, although he's RB39 here, so it's obviously still not aggressively ranked or anything like that, but a little bit higher with that recency filter on there. Bogman, let's stick with you for your next buy low. 00:20:30 Speaker 3: All right, my next buy low is going to be Colston Loveland because everything I see on the internet is very, very upset. Everyone is angry. No one is giving any leeway to Colson Loveland. And I understand that, like, he's averaging 2.8 points per game, right? But he's still playing over 85% of the snaps. He has the seventh most routes run among tight ends and is involved in one of the best offenses in the league and one of the best play callers. And let's not forget outside of the first game, which, listen, that was a terrible game for him, right? Everybody scored in that game except for Colson Loveland. Cole Kometa. had a touchdown in the first game. You put up that many points, you know, you're expected to do something and he didn't do anything. But outside of that game, he played a game in the rain, half with his backup quarterback. And then, you know, the Monday night game where he did okay. And a lot like Jameson Williams, he was, you know, three inches shy of the goal line. And if he just would have stuck his arms out, he would add six more points. So, you know, things are going to improve for Colson Loveland. Now, um, maybe he's the next Kyle Pitts. His advanced numbers aren't great right now, but it took him a bit to warm up last season as well. And he finished with the fury from week eight to 18. He was second fantasy points, uh, overall six and fantasy points per game. And, uh, I just think that, you know, obviously everything on the internet is hyperbolic. You know, everybody needs clicks. Everybody wants, uh, black or white, big, uh, big opinions or, nothing, right? So everyone is really mad and calling Colson Loveland a bust. I understand that. And, you know, to the people that have lived through Kyle Pitts, I understand frustration with tight ends. I do. I get it. But I do think that this is a very good opportunity to buy if the managers are frustrated. Again, a lot like the Justin Herbert thing and a lot to Fitzy's point, I don't know that you're going to be able to buy him low in every single spot, but there's going to be some spots somewhere where someone is rostering Colson Loveland and And they have two other good tight ends and they don't really need him. And that is the perfect type of buying opportunity. So, you know, with him being down right now, I just think it's one of your better spots you're ever going to be. You're ever going to have to buy Colson Loveland. So I would go and see what I can do right now to get him. 00:22:57 Speaker 1: Yeah, Fitz, I think this is a really interesting one of how reactionary are the managers in your dynasty league? Because if they are reactionary, it might be a great opportunity. I just don't know how far in people's estimations Loveland is dropping just in terms of what it would take to pry him off their dynasty teams. I mean, maybe it's a team that they have Loveland and Kincaid in there. Okay. Well, Kincaid's breaking out. I now have two top five guys. Maybe I can trade one of them and get a little more for Loveland, something like that. But if Loveland is sort of your main dynasty tight end piece, I'm not, sure like what it would take to actually pry them off your hands. 00:23:32 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:23:32 Speaker 2: You'd probably need to approach a Colston Loveland investor who has other tight ends, other credible tight ends. And the good thing is there are a lot of other secondary type tight ends who have surprised this year. Guys like Terrence Ferguson, Darren Waller. I know Ferguson's hurt right now, but Dalton Schultz. 00:23:51 Speaker 3: Sadiq. 00:23:52 Speaker 2: Sadiq. 00:23:53 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:23:53 Speaker 2: Like, so it's possible that, There are other answers for the person who's holding on to Colston Loveland right now. But yeah, the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets and the Colston Loveland investors are bleeding a little bit right now. 00:24:08 Speaker 1: What are you willing to give up, Fitz, to go get him? 00:24:11 Speaker 2: I mean, I would absolutely give up a second in next year's draft. You know, and the thing is, Loveland could be a buy for either a contender or a rebuilder. 00:24:25 Speaker 3: What if it costs you like if you had Sam Laporta and somebody said, look, I'll sell you Loveland, but I got to get Laporta back. Laporta and a second. Is that too much? 00:24:35 Speaker 2: No, I'm not. I'm not giving up Laporta and a second. I'm just keeping Laporta then. 00:24:39 Speaker 3: Okay. 00:24:40 Speaker 2: I'm not Laporta and a tax, like a severe tax to get Loveland. I like Loveland. I don't like Loveland that much. 00:24:48 Speaker 3: I don't like him that much. I'm also down on Laporta because he's had some back stuff. Uh, but I don't know, like, what about Isaiah likely? Like how far can you go down? Like what type of starting tight end can, can you would like, would likely do it? Like if likely in a second, would you just say, yeah, I'll do that. 00:25:06 Speaker 2: I might be willing to do that. 00:25:08 Speaker 3: Okay. 00:25:08 Speaker 2: Because I, I don't know if I believe in like the longterm potential of Isaiah likely to be a difference maker. Especially J.J. 00:25:19 Speaker 3: McCarthy's throne, too. 00:25:20 Speaker 2: Yeah, no kidding. 00:25:22 Speaker 1: I like Likely. I would definitely do Likely in a second for Loveland. 00:25:26 Speaker 3: I do like him as well, and I think I'd be willing to do that at this point. 00:25:30 Speaker 2: Wait, you'd be— which side do you guys like on the two of those? 00:25:33 Speaker 1: I would rather have Loveland than Likely in a second. I would trade away Likely in a second for Loveland. 00:25:38 Speaker 2: I agree. I agree with that. The one thing—

like, I have no real concerns about Loveland. I mean, he is the same guy who was such a beast down the stretch. last year. Like the one, I also trust Ben Johnson as a play caller to eventually get him back on track. I mean, the only thing that's annoying, sometimes you almost get like vanity play calling from Ben Johnson where he's trying to get targets to Sam Roush and Xavier and Thomas. Like, do we really need to be getting these guys? Why is Sam Roush getting targets? And that kind of killed the bears in week two with a Sam Roush target that maybe should have gone to Colston Loveland. But, I don't think there's anything to worry about here, and I do think he's a buy low, and there are people panicking. We've seen this, especially in redraft, where the season is short. But I think even the dynasty managers are starting to get sweaty palms over the slow start. 00:26:28 Speaker 1: I was going to say, I think it's very doable in redraft. Dynasty is where I'm not 100% sure. I need to tell everybody about this new prediction market called PolyMarket. It's a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. They are so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 50 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. So download the Polymarket app today and use FPPOD when you sign up. That's FPPOD to get $ 50 free after you trade just $ 10. All right, Fitz, who is your first dynasty sell high? 00:27:14 Speaker 2: It is Michael Wilson, wide receiver, Arizona Cardinals. Some really interesting stats for Michael Wilson three weeks into the season. So here are his stats, and here's how he ranks in each category. This courtesy of our friends at Fantasy Points and their awesome data suites, 2.0. Michael Wilson, 95.2% route share. That ranks second behind only Jamar Chase. 25.6% target share, that ranks 11th. 42.6% air yard share, also ranks 11th. But in yards per route run, 1.38 yards per route run, that ranks 83rd. And yards per target, 5.43, I believe that ranks 121st. So this is a really interesting case. And I think in the case of Michael Wilson, we might be mistaking being busy with being good. The Cardinals need Michael Wilson to be busy because Marvin Harrison Jr. has gone from being merely disappointing to being catastrophically bad. Marvin Harrison Jr. 's target percentage, 6.8% this year. He's averaging 0.7 yards per route run. It's actually averaging 9.1 yards per target, which is a pretty good number. He's just never targeted anymore. 00:28:38 Speaker 3: Save him for the cell low show. 00:28:41 Speaker 2: And the Cardinals are going to address this in the draft and or free agency in the offseason. And there is a very good chance that Michael Wilson is back to being the complimentary

receiver that he's probably cut out to be rather than the alpha receiver he's serving as now. 00:29:00 Speaker 1: He is wide receiver 38 in the consensus rankings, and that is, again, just rankers who have updated within the last week. Again, Fitz, I ask you, does that sound too high, too low, just right? 00:29:12 Speaker 2: I think it's a little too high. 00:29:16 Speaker 1: He is one spot ahead of Denzel Boston, who I know you are a big fan of. I'm sure you would make that trade. 00:29:22 Speaker 2: In a heartbeat. 00:29:23 Speaker 1: No doubt. What about Michael Wilson for Jaden Higgins if you're a rebuilding team and don't mind that Higgins is out for the year? 00:29:36 Speaker 2: I don't know if I'd make that trade just because, you know, now Higgins has had one major injury. and Michael Wilson, even though he was very injury prone in college, has been relatively healthy in the NFL. 00:29:46 Speaker 1: The next three names, by the way, Boston and Higgins are the first to rank directly behind Michael Wilson. Next three are Josh Downs, Matthew Golden and Jalen Coker. I'd be on board with any of those trade trade Wilson for and kind of leaning into that youth and upside there. Uh, Bogman, what do you think about Michael Wilson, both where he's ranked and some of these other names around him and what kind of trade would make sense? Yeah. 00:30:08 Speaker 3: I mean, I think the, uh, you know, uh, like a late, what do you think fits yet? Well, would a third get it done? I don't know if, I don't think I would trade a second for Michael Wilson. I don't think anybody else would either. So I think maybe a third would get a deal done there. If you, if you need a wide receiver, that's the most I'd be willing to give. to get him if, like, I had, you know, a couple wide receiver injuries and he's one of the guys that's available. I don't know if I'm a sell high on him. He has been playing pretty well. I think he just fits much better for what they want to do than Harrison does. And, you know, we heard LaFleur talking about roles, right? Like, and apparently Marvin Harrison's role is to run cardio at this point and, you know, let everybody else underneath get the job done, which is you know, been working for them so far. They, they look way better offensively than we predicted. And Jeremiah love looks healthier than we thought he was. He was going to coming into the season as well. So I think that things are working. I think the volume is going to stay. So I kind of like Michael Wilson. 00:31:15 Speaker 2: It's not staying beyond this year though. That's the thing. They're going to have other receivers in the, that could be true. Horning in on his target chair without question. that could be true, but I mean, they're making it work right now. So, and they did just give him an extension. So in LaFleur is not going anywhere either after year one. So I, I think it might stick depending on who they draft. Obviously, if they draft, you know, someone to replace

Marvin Harrison, cause they've traded him for a bag of footballs and you know, and that person is a big time name, then yes, I agree with you fits, but I don't know. I kind of like the, the way the volume is working and funneling towards them right now. So, I'm, I'm okay with selling him. 00:31:55 Speaker 3: If you can get beyond a third, like if I can get into the second round of the 27 drafts with Michael Wilson, I'm doing that. So I guess it just really depends on what type of offers you're getting, you know, and I think it'd be a good time to sell them for a running back to someone is sitting on a pile of running backs and they need a wide receiver. I think that would be a good option as well. So I really think it depends on the offer. I don't know that I'm actively looking to sell him, but I would be willing to sell him. 00:32:26 Speaker 1: Bogman, I was literally just about to say that I wonder if the best path forward in a trade here isn't draft capital, because there's not really the right number that makes sense, but actually to look at a running back. So I'm on board with you there. I'm not sure the exact right name, but I think that's where I would start looking at Because it does feel like a second probably you're not getting from anyone, but a third doesn't feel like enough. It's one of those kind of in-between types of players. So I feel like you need another player involved to make it worthwhile. 00:32:54 Speaker 3: Maybe squeeze a 28-third also, two-thirds. 00:32:58 Speaker 1: Something like that, maybe. Bogman, who is your first sell-high? 00:33:03 Speaker 3: I mean, it might be the most obvious sell-high in the history of this show, but it's Devontae Adams. And obviously, he's... old, right? So you want to sell them because of that in dynasty, but I think he can actually help somebody right now. I mean, he's again, you know, I looked up stats on the data suite 2.0 as well over fantasy points, number one in separation score and win rate number three in yards per route run and targets per route run 13th in explosive play percentage. He's six in, uh, fantasy points right now in PPR that's overall and per game. So, uh, his market should absolutely be hitting up. We've seen a lot of injuries happen as well. So, and this could last longer into the season too, if Puka continues to miss time, which they've talked about, right? That maybe he's not back anytime soon. We saw a Fitzy's boy, Kanata Mumpfield go crazy on Sunday night football. And I even had to send Fitzy a text. I was like, boy, He's going crazy here tonight and he looked great. I think just a couple of weeks ago on the, the discord, uh, somebody had Mumfield and I was like, ah, you probably dropped Mumfield. And I was like, is there anyone here worth keeping Fitz? And he's like, I would keep Mumfield. So, uh, but, but Devante has been making the engine churn here for the Rams right now. And he looks great. So it's not just get him off your team because he's old. He can help

somebody win right now. So if you're rostering him specifically on a rebuilding team, then yes, trade him right now, his value is never going to be higher. And I know, you know, dynasty managers are discerning. You know, they're not going to just trade for the old guy because he's playing really great right now. But I do think that his stock is up and you could probably squeeze a little bit more to trade him right now than you could have three weeks ago. So I think it's a really good time to sell. 00:35:03 Speaker 1: This is a very classic. It's like a Derrick Henry all-star of It's very simple. If you are contending, I would keep him. And if you are rebuilding, you got to trade him because there's not long-term value here. I don't know what kind of package you get in a vacuum, right? He's the type of guy that's hard to pinpoint a context agnostic value to because it is so dependent on are you trying to win now? Because if you're trying to win now, I do think he will be very helpful to you this year, especially with all the stuff going on with Puka. I'm very in on Devante Adams for 2026. Obviously, you can't really have any further expectation beyond that, given his age and the position he plays. So, Fitz, to you, obviously, if you're a rebuilding team is where you're looking to do this, what are you holding out for? Are you holding out for maybe a team that has a lot of wide receiver injuries themselves and gets desperate and overpays? Are you saying, if I can get a second, I'm just taking that and running as a rebuilding team, what are you looking for here? 00:36:00 Speaker 2: I would definitely take a second and run. I don't know if you can get that. I need to start figuring this out because again, uh, in the, I told you about the best ball dynasty home league. I'm in where Devante Adams helped me win an unwanted game in week two. He just did it again in week three. I'm now two and one with the team I'm trying to rebuild with because I always. 00:36:23 Speaker 1: By the way, just really quickly, but I bring this up to people all the time when they're like, well, I don't know. Like if I'm getting the exact value I'm looking for here, I'm like, there is also an inherent value of just not having this guy on your team when you want to lose games. Like that is, especially in a year like this, where you can now get, you're now two steps further away from Jeremiah Smith because Devante Adams is still on your roster. I tell this to people all the time. Like, You should make that value into the idea of making a trade. It's making your long-term prospect better to get rid of them. 00:36:51 Speaker 2: Yeah, now it's more Cam Coleman is the target after this. I'm downgrading. But I like the way Bogman framed this. This is not like, oh, we don't believe what Devontae Adams is doing. No, Devontae Adams is still really good, but things are going to run out before long. I mean, the guy was taking Patrick Sertan Jr. to school. the other night and yeah at his age so um yeah but we have a future hall of famer in the twilight of his career and it's probably as bogman said not going to get any better than it is right now and if you're rebuilding you owe it to yourself to get something for him while he can be valuable to a contender and by the way. 00:37:39 Speaker 1: Like you know when we talk about his age just in case people don't know like this isn't just a guy in his thirties. He is turning 34 during the season. Like he is into his mid thirties and at receiver when it goes, it does tend to go like relatively suddenly. So, uh, yeah, he's somebody that you should be very strongly looking to move. 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All right, Fitz, who's your other dynasty sell high? 00:38:46 Speaker 2: It's Javante Williams, who I've talked about as a sell high in the offseason. I still think he's a sell high. Javante scored three touchdowns in three games. If he stays healthy, he's probably a mortal lock to score double-digit touchdowns. And if he stays healthy, not out of the question, he could get 15 or 16 touchdowns this year. That's the appeal. That and the fact that he has a really meaty role in a very good offense with zero positional competition in Dallas. No one is coming for Javante Williams. 00:39:16 Speaker 3: Job this year. 00:39:17 Speaker 2: But the stats are pretty ordinary. And the performance, 3.9 yards per carry. His rushing success rate, just above league average. His numbers in the yardage after contact per attempt and missed tackles. forced per attempt category, slightly below average. Javante has the lead back role in Dallas, but there isn't really anything he's doing to show the Cowboys, hey, here's why you have me in this role. Other than being durable and not making glaring mistakes. But I mean, I've watched Javante this season. He, he looks slow to me, quite frankly. Like he, he looks like a back who is older than what he's like 26 now coming up on 27. 00:39:59 Speaker 1: He's 26. I don't know when he turned 27, but he's currently 26. Yeah. 00:40:02 Speaker 2: I mean, he just, he looks like a guy who's had a major knee

injury and, um, he, he. 00:40:08 Speaker 1: Will not be 27 until April of next year. 00:40:11 Speaker 2: Okay. So maybe a little older than his, uh, biological age. And I just, I feel like Javante is basically about the role and he's going to produce numbers in that role. But is this like long-term production you can count on? I don't think it is. So again, another case, if you're not in it to win it this year and Javante is on your roster, I think you owe it to yourself to try to trade him, especially now while he's piling up touchdowns. 00:40:42 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one that it's harder for me to agree with. I know that it is role-based why we like him right now, but he does have that role, and that's certainly not changing this year. I don't know that it's a guarantee to change next year if they're just comfortable with, hey, we are getting our explosive plays from the receivers and from Dak, and if we just have a guy who can rack up touchdowns and be reliable on the ground they might just be comfortable with that he also looked i thought a lot better against the ravens now that might have been the ravens defense related and then that's a good job of tackling and stopping the run but i thought he looked better in that brazil game than he had in the first two weeks of the season just watching him and like you said i think he's gonna rack up a lot of touchdowns um it's one of those for me where it's like if somebody were to offer me a 27 first like yeah you kind of have to take that but I don't think you're getting that offer. And if you're not like, I'm not interested in a second for him, somebody who has this role in this type of offense and is still, you know, he's going to be 26 the whole season. So I'm like less convinced on this one. Fitz, what do you think Bogman? 00:41:42 Speaker 3: On this one, this one, I, Javante is a hard player to sell. I feel like, right. Because the role is really nice and he's putting up points for your team right now. So if you're, Winning and running back is usually pretty thin. It's hard to sell a guy like Javante. But I do think in terms of timing, where he is about to turn 27, and we know after 27 is typically when the downslope comes for guys that have started in the league for a little bit. I do think that this timing makes a lot of sense to go ahead and get rid of him right now. But I don't know that you're going to get enough for him because I think almost every manager that has Javante Williams or picked him did it with their nose held. I don't know that everybody wanted Javante outside of maybe Cowboys managers here, but I do think that Javante was kind of the guy you wound up with and he's outperformed where you drafted him in most cases. So I would float him. I would at least do that. Float him and see what type of offers come back to you, because some people are desperate for running backs and willing to overpay. So at least listen on Javante. But and and I would say actively shop. I would actively shop to see what I can get in next year's draft to or a wide receiver I need or, you know, tight end, whatever it may be. So I definitely a nice time to float him, but it might make you queasy. you know, trading him and not getting a running back back because it is pretty thin out there right now. 00:43:29 Speaker 1: Fitz in the, in a dynasty league, what sort of deal do you think makes sense for Javante? 00:43:34 Speaker 2: Um, I would take Denzel Boston for him straight up right now. And I think the trade calculators would tell you Javante is worth more. 00:43:42 Speaker 1: Yeah. But I would, I would happen positional ranking, but I. 00:43:45 Speaker 2: Would much rather have Boston right now, assuming I'm not playing for this year. And look, I, I just want to clarify something, Worm, because you kind of raised this point. Like, I don't think, like, Javante's value ends after this year. But I do think there's going to be more positional competition for him in Dallas next year than just Tyler Goodson and Amari DiMercato. Like, right now, there is no one to challenge him. And if he were to go down, it would be a catastrophe for the Cowboys. But there will be... The Cowboys will have their Emmett Johnson or their Tyler Algier next year to back up Javante Williams. 00:44:25 Speaker 1: We said that last year, right? We were like, oh, hey, he has this role. 00:44:28 Speaker 3: They had a lot of gaps to fill this year, though. 00:44:31 Speaker 2: Yeah, and it was maybe supposed to be Jaden Blue. Things have not gone well for them behind Javante. 00:44:39 Speaker 1: I'm not even saying that you're wrong. I feel like we said that last year, and then here he is with the role again. At some point relatively soon, that will not be the case, which I don't disagree with you on at all. I also– he's just one of those players that I liked so much coming out of college. I know he's not the same player since the knee injury, but the fact that he is producing now, I want to believe that he is close to back to that. It would be fun if he was. 00:45:04 Speaker 3: God, he was a stud in college. 00:45:06 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:45:07 Speaker 3: So much fun to watch. 00:45:08 Speaker 1: Bogman, you have a Dynasty sell high for us. 00:45:11 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's Bryce Young. I don't think it's surprising to anybody, right? 939 yards, seven touchdowns, fourth in points right now. But again, this one is about timing with the quarterbacks, right? Dart is down. Caleb is down. Jaden is down. Baker is down. Darnold just came back, and we're not even talking about regression from May, Herbert, Daniel Jones, Murray, Stroud, Nix, and guys like Ward and Willis have not taken that next step yet. So it's just a very thin QB market right now. We know there's going to be an influx of quarterbacks coming in next year, but for managers trying to win right now, if you have some of these frustrating quarterbacks or an injury problem, I do think that the market has got to be hot

specifically in super flex leagues to go and trade a quarterback. So I think because of that reason, you know, the dude leads the league in passing yards. He's third in touchdowns. He's looked great in two of the three games that, They have played so far. He could bring back more than he's worth right now. If you trade him, I think in almost every scenario. So I would at least float them out there specifically in super flex leagues and see what type of offers come back your way. And I just, are we believing that Bryce Young's issues are fixed through three, three weeks this season? I'm not, I'm just not willing to bet. He looks good. but I'm not willing to bet that everything has changed through the first three weeks. He did not look good against Cleveland last week. So I think it's a pretty good time with the market being hot and him being hot to sell. 00:46:54 Speaker 1: I find it very difficult to pinpoint what his value would be in a trade in a super flex dynasty league right now, for all the reasons you just laid out Bogman. If you look at the dynasty trade value chart, he was worth about an early to mid second, but That gets updated on the first of every month at FantasyPros.com. Obviously, the day we're taping this is September 29th. So it's a few weeks old. This isn't reflective of his start to the season. That will update on Thursday of this week, October 1st. So he might look a little bit different there. That's where he was, again, to start the year on our chart. But he is just like you said, he's had those two great games. He has also still had some flaws in there. Fitz, what do you think? I really struggle to kind of pinpoint what that value should be. 00:47:38 Speaker 2: I think he's maybe slightly turned a corner, but is still probably limited to a ceiling of league average quarterback. And I'm not saying he's gotten to the point of league average quarterback yet. He's a little above that in terms of a lot of the numbers from this year, but it's a three-game sample size. So I kind of understand what Bogman is saying. Let me throw out a couple names to you guys. So someone needs a quarterback. Um, they're going for it now. They kind of, let's say they need Bryce Young to be their second quarterback and they offer you Carnell Tate for him. 00:48:17 Speaker 1: I'm probably taking Tate. If I have the quarterback depth to spare and I'm willing to move Bryce Young in that vacuum. 00:48:25 Speaker 2: Let's say you don't. Let's say you're rebuilding, but Fernando Mendoza is your QB, too. 00:48:30 Speaker 1: If I'm rebuilding, then yes, I am taking that. Because then, to the point I made earlier, that's just going to help me get a better pick this year. And I don't care about Tate being off to a slow start and Cam Ward maybe not being the quarterback of the future there. Um, so I, I would do that if I was rebuilding bogs. Hmm. 00:48:49 Speaker 3: I I'm trying to squeeze a pick back somewhere, right? Like I want a third also because carnal Tate hasn't done anything and cam ward looks like garbage right now. So, uh, I, I think that I, I, I, and I don't know if you're going to get that from the 27 class, but I I'll bump back to 28, right? Whatever. I'll wait two years as long as I can squeeze that extra pick back. So Tate, I think is probably not enough in a super flex league. Uh, but you know, we're, we're close. If I can get a pick back, maybe a second 28, I would. I would do that deal. 00:49:20 Speaker 1: I would clarify that like I do think you could maybe try to get more just in terms of hey this is a super flex you need a quarterback you're desperate and try to negotiate if that was a hard line though take it or leave it I would take it I would try to get. 00:49:34 Speaker 2: More can't throw out one more name please Travion Henderson done You take Travion for Bryce? 00:49:42 Speaker 1: Yeah, I do. 00:49:43 Speaker 3: I still believe in Travion. 00:49:45 Speaker 1: That one's tougher for me. I think I would want more. Just the nature of running back versus, at least with Cardinal Tate, it's like he has the pedigree of a top five receiver draft pick. 00:49:59 Speaker 3: They're probably in the same boat. Neither one of them has proven themselves, really. But for long term, I believe in Henderson for sure. Tatum a little waffly because, because of the quarterback situation, like who he's attached to. I mean, Drake may look like garbage, the whole Patriots offense. I think, I think there's a world. 00:50:19 Speaker 1: Though, that like a year from now, the starting quarterback for the Titans is like Dante Moore. Like if they have, they might have a terrible season. That'll be two bad years from cam ward. It's not the coaching staff that drafted him. Like, they might give him another chance, but if he continues to look as bad as he has, they might just say, Hey, let's just start over here. And this is such a great quarterback class. So that might, it might look a lot better a year. Maybe Julian saying, maybe they reunite, you know, the Ohio state guys, like who. 00:50:45 Speaker 3: Knows, but probably a new coach in new England next year, the way that's going as well. So maybe a new offensive system to fit better for Travion Henderson as well. 00:50:55 Speaker 1: I was going to throw out, it's less a trade. You'd likely see, cause it's just two kind of diminished assets at quarterback, but more just a ranking of, Who would you guys rather have in Dynasty right now, Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud? Because Bryce Young is ranked higher in the latest update to the consensus rankings. 00:51:12 Speaker 3: It's still Stroud for me. 00:51:13 Speaker 2: Which is funny because they were in the same draft class. And I know in the Kings Classic Dynasty League. I took Young over Stroud and I was kicking myself after his rookie year. And it's funny to see that have come back full circle and now Young's valued higher. That is really close. I mean, I think I actually do feel a little bit better about

Bryce Young right now than CJ Stroud. 00:51:38 Speaker 1: They're the two closest ranked guys who are in that age range because Bryce Young's in an age, he's in a rankings range where a lot of the guys around him are a number of years older. It's Kyler Murray. It's Sam Darnold. It's Baker Mayfield. Matthew Stafford is in that range. So it's very timeline dependent, it feels like, when you're trying to rank them. Stroud is the one guy in that range who is like the same age as him. 00:52:00 Speaker 3: He's also been down as top two wide receivers. Higgins is obviously out the whole year. Niko's missed two games. 00:52:08 Speaker 2: Stroud has had adverse circumstances, like terrible offensive line in 2024 and 2025. So yes, it seems like the universe is conspiring to keep CJ Stroud from ever having a good supporting cast. 00:52:22 Speaker 1: You can find out what your players are really worth with the new Fantasy Pros Trade Market Values Report. Compare player values from actual trades across thousands of fantasy leagues against Fantasy Pros expert consensus values. Quickly identify players to buy low, sell high, or target in your next deal with values for half PPR, Dynasty, and your synced teams. Make smarter trades using real market data. at fantasypros.com slash markets. That's fantasypros.com slash markets. All right, guys, just going to kind of wrap up with some final thoughts on generally approaching dynasty trades. You know, it's early in the season. We talked a little bit about this last week, too. We were talking about some of our lessons learned early in the season. When you're actually approaching real trades and trying to wheel and deal this time of year, are there general markers you're looking for? Are there general positions you think it's smarter to go after in season? Are you typically looking at what are some roster holes I can fill with young players or when now players, or are you primarily looking at draft picks Bogman? What's your sort of overarching approach this time of year? 00:53:24 Speaker 3: I mean, I'm with this draft class, I'm looking to get in when and whenever I can. So, you know, specifically if I'm rebuilding, but I do think that, you know, you kind of just follow the injuries and which teams have had them and been hit by them. And you know, have they been hit by so many injuries that they turn into a rebuilder or is it, Hey, you know, they just need one piece and maybe I have it, you know? So I think for rebuilders, you kind of have to pay attention to every manager. And then for guys that just like to, you know, people that just like to make a bunch of moves, you know, you're playing a lot of floating a guy out saying, Hey, I've got this guy. Who's the hotness right now. Let's see what I can get for him. That type of thing. So, And a lot of it is listening and rejecting. Right. Like everybody's going to lowball you. And I think in season, I'm way like, let's just start with a decent offer. Right. Maybe it's still

a little low, but not something that looks insulting. So we don't have to go back and forth and do 20 rounds of this before we get to where we finally do settle on a good enough deal. So. Start out with something a little bit better. It's almost like if you're doing an auction, everybody wants to start the guy at $ 1 when you know he's going to go for $ 60. Just start him at $ 30. You know what I mean? Don't go in for $ 1. 00:54:42 Speaker 1: In the summer or in the spring, it's like, all right. You got time. We have the time. Let's talk football. Let's go back and forth. In season, it's like, all right, come on. 00:54:51 Speaker 3: Everything's moving. Let's get to the point. Yeah, let's not limp at this. Let's go. So that's probably what I'd say about trading. in season at this point, follow the injuries. If you're rebuilding, you got to be on top of it everywhere. Specifically, if there's a, you know, a couple of guys you're trying to unload here to get picks and, you know, get out and get those picks. This is going to be a really, really good class. 00:55:14 Speaker 1: Fitz on the opposite side of that. Do you feel like if you're a team that is interested in trying to compete now that you are willing to use the strength of the 2027 class in your favor and dangle those picks? I mean, it's not a draft class you want to It's going to be really not very fun next May when you don't have picks in this class, but is there maybe an opportunity to say, hey, the reputation of this class is so strong, these picks are so valued, that if I'm trying to win now, flags fly forever, maybe the time is right to use those to my advantage. 00:55:47 Speaker 2: Yeah, but I want that to be like if I'm thinking about trading away my 2027 first. I want that sword to be Excalibur. I want that thing to be the game ender. You know what I mean? I don't want to trade that pick just to be able to contend with three or four other teams. I want that as the blow that is going to make me the decided favorite going into the league. So I'm not throwing around 2027 draft picks lightly. 00:56:17 Speaker 1: I kind of think that 2028, it's not gonna be better than 2027. I do, I'm starting to think that 2028, like it might be a pretty good class in its own right, even if it's not on the same level. So I am looking in a lot of trades right now to get 2028 picks because I feel like the reputation of 27 is so strong that people are like, all right, I can't possibly move this. But if you're willing to wait a year, I'll throw you that first you're looking for. And I kind of think we're gonna be, you're gonna be feeling pretty good about that. It tends to be the best time to get the class ahead, that's the easiest time to get those picks because everybody's thinking about the next class and thinking about one future down the line. Again, this time a year from now, if you are able to make some of those deals, I think you're going to be feeling pretty good about it, Bogman. 00:56:59 Speaker 3: Yeah, I completely agree with that. That's a really good point to make. These picks are probably overrated, the 2027 class, right? They're probably overrated right now. But I'm willing to buy them at their overrated price because I am so excited about this. But, you know, it will get to a point to where, you know, people are holding them like Gollum with the ring, you know, and it's not that, you know, get your championship, get your money right. Like if you win the league one year and it pays for it for the next five years, that's worth it, man. You know, so I hold those picks in high regard, but they're not impossible to trade. They are definitely movable. Every asset in fantasy is movable. 00:57:49 Speaker 1: There is such a real future FOMO that I'm anticipating in any leagues where I don't have picks in May. That is like an emotional cost to making those trades. Of course, like you said, go get the championship if you feel like you can. Fitz, any other kind of final thoughts here on approaching dynasty trades right now before we wrap up? 00:58:08 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, just self-assessment is key. Know what you are. And if you don't know what you are yet, give it a few more weeks before you make any major moves. I'm always sort of against tearing things down if you're not sure you can't contend or selling off picks and going for the gusto if you're not totally sure you're capable of winning a title. So if you don't have enough information, sometimes it's just fine to wait a few more weeks until you gather a few more nuggets of info about your own team and some of the other teams in the league. 00:58:47 Speaker 1: I want to remind our audience that they can join our fantasy pros, discord community chat with other fans to get access to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Current schedule looks like this myself and fits at five Eastern on the first Tuesday of every month, Bogman and fits at five Eastern on the third Tuesday of every month. And then Welsh and Erickson at two Eastern every Thursday, come get your questions answered and be on the show at Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.