TRANSCRIPCIÓN 🔗
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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 122.
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My name is Chris, chrislas.com and jupiterbroadcasting.com.
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This is one of those weeks that I think Bitcoiners have been waiting for,
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and they don't even know it's happened.
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Something is shifting where all of the things
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that have happened in the last few weeks
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that we've been talking about
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are actually starting to sink in
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in a way that seems like perhaps
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the winds of change are starting to blow
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in Bitcoin's direction.
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I'll get into what I mean here in a moment.
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I'm going to make the case this week
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that this bullish setup that we're starting to see
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isn't a temporary thing,
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probably isn't even a cycle thing.
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It's more of a structural thing.
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All right, what do I mean by a structural fund?
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Well, a lot of times things come and go in these news cycles,
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and a week later we've completely forgotten about it,
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and we're on to the next topic, the next narrative.
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This time, though, things are really starting to stick.
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They're not letting it go over in the market,
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and we're starting to see a kind of entrenching of beliefs about the future of the overall fiscal
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system. I know that sounds broad, but I mean it. And this first clip will kind of recap us and reset
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where we're at. Everyone's celebrating this time as volatility has returned back to the upside.
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And I think this is related to what's occurred at the Treasury over the last week when they're
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doubling the amount of share buybacks. And really what this points to is the lack of sustainability
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of the fiscal outlook. And the currency debasement trade was really popular in the earlier in this
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year. And then AI kind of took some of the spotlight away from that. So Bitcoin and gold
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became out of favor. But the important point to make is that it wasn't a trade. This debasement
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was structural, meaning that it's related to the fact that we have $40 trillion of debt.
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They can't afford to have the long end of the yield curve rise because interest expense will
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explode. Interest and expense is already the third line item this year. Fiscal deficits are on track
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to exceed last year. It's supposed to be $2.1 trillion. And investors are starting to ask
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questions. And they're looking at alternatives and hard assets because when they come out and say,
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hey, we're going to go to treasury buybacks, really what they're saying is we're going to
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sacrifice the currency. And you saw that in the dollar move in response to that news. And you saw
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that with the moves of Bitcoin and gold. Yeah, they're not asking questions so much because they
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got their answer. They're going to debase the currency. And that's why Ray Dalio's message
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all of a sudden has an audience again. He's been put on blast this week going around talking to
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the various different news outlets that have him on. And I think he is putting a voice to this new
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reality that is setting in for the market right now. So, for example, last year, American stock
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market, American markets significantly underperformed foreign markets. And people don't
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quite realize that. And the best asset class, in a sense, was gold. But think of that as being the
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money. So in answer to your question, okay, that was a lesson I learned, that if there's a
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depreciation in the value of money, it makes everything look like it's going up.
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You know, I think that's actually a really important point that we should mention more often.
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I think people have a hard time wrapping their head around that. Well, my house,
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It's going up. My stocks, they're going up.
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Ray's saying what Bitcoiners and gold bugs have known for a long time.
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But the reason Ray is getting airtime right now is Besson and Warsh just had their dog and pony show at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
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Big event, right? Oh, what's he going to say at Jackson Hole, Jackson Hole?
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And, well, bond yields have been rising around the West since that meeting.
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And the U.S. Treasury Secretary, he's in there.
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I think Arthur Hayes calls him Buffalo Bill Besson.
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He's in there trying to provide a reliable buyer to the market, trying to get those yields
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to at least sort of settle down a little bit.
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But that's happening at the same time that the federal chair, Kevin Warsh, has been saying
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over and over again that he's not going to give forward guidance to the market.
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He's not going to spoon feed the market information because he wants clear signals from the market
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so they can make data decisions that are reflecting real data and not Fed distorted data.
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OK, we can all kind of get on board with that concept for a moment. The problem is Besson's coming in and distorting the number one signal the Fed's watching, the bond market. So Besson's coming in and messing with the very signal that Warsh claims he's trying to clear up.
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Another way to put this is that Warsh is trying to clear the windshield so they can make better decisions and Besson's coming along and fogging it back up.
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They are working at cross purposes here and people aren't stupid.
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They can see that this is happening.
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They can see that the Fed and the Treasury are working at cross purposes.
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At minimum, the Fed are trying, trying to keep rates steady, possibly, you know, job job owning like they're going to raise them, which seems doubtful, but job owning they might raise them to try to do as much as they can via credibility to cool the market.
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Well, best is out there like, yeah, we might blow a trillion dollars.
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Do you understand how that's a conflict, how that's like at the core, very, very core problem?
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One hand is trying to do one thing and the other hand is trying to do another thing.
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This is this is something that the market sees.
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We all see it.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, by coming into the bond markets and trying to bring down yields,
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has made things more difficult for Warsh as he tries to speak to global central bankers here at Jackson Hole.
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To some degree, Besson and Warsh might be working at cross purposes here,
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because in order to get inflation under control, Warsh needs to potentially tighten financial conditions,
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which means raising rates, whereas from the Treasury Secretary's point of view, yields on the long end are too high and they're affecting consumers and also government debt load and the burden of repaying the debt.
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So he wants to bring that down a bit. And Kevin Warsh has said that he wants to see what markets have to say without interference from policymakers.
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So this is all muddying the waters at a moment when he really needs to be very clear about his communication about getting inflation down.
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Of course, what Treasury does in Treasury markets is not really the Fed's business.
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And I think that Warsh really feels that there needs to be a sharp line between what monetary policy does and what the Treasury does.
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So in that regard, whatever Besson does is Besson's business.
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But it's really not because what happens in the yields and in the Treasury markets do have an effect on the Fed,
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partly because Warsh has to read what the markets are saying,
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but also because it affects the tightness of financial conditions.
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And that is going to have a direct effect on how the Fed policy is going to need to respond
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to try to get inflation under control.
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He is not given any hint that he's about to raise rates.
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A lot of his colleagues, though, have talked about if inflation does not come down soon,
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we will need to move.
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And that's going to be the conundrum for Warsh as he talks to global central bankers here.
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OK, so that's the banker perspective.
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This next clip is 21's new CEO after Jack Mahler stepped down and he kind of puts it in Bitcoin terms.
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It's kind of like coming out. But as I said before, it's still a drop in the bucket on the ocean of liquidity. Right.
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And on top of that, I think the recent macro events help Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin is a monetary asset that different than anything else that we've ever seen as humans.
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It's extremely predictable.
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The monetary issuance is written in code.
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You don't have, you know, 12 different federal reserve banks making determinations.
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They're opaque that you don't know what's going to happen.
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You know, treasury chairs coming in and trying to buy the long end of the curve.
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Nothing of that happens, right?
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It's extremely predictable.
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You know that every 10 minutes, a new block on average, every 10 minutes, a new block is going to come in.
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3 and 1 eighths Bitcoin is going to be issued, right?
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You know that every four years that habs, it's all written in code, it's all transparent,
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it's all open source, and we've never seen this.
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And going back to Berkshire Charlie Munger actually used to say that predictability should trade at the premium right And I think Bitcoin should trade at the premium exactly because the monetary policy it a line
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You know exactly what it's going to be for the foreseeable future.
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And unfortunately, we live in a world with a lot of uncertainty right now, not only politically, but on the monetary side as well.
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And I think that's what we're seeing on Bitcoin right now.
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It's a lot of like the realization that this is a very different asset from what we've seen before.
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And it's not just the tether guys saying it.
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That's the point I'm trying to make here is there has been a tone shift around Bitcoin with the suits that seems to have really stuck after this Treasury decision.
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And that narrative kind of went on blast this week.
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That's really what I'm noticing.
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Here's BlackRock's head of digital assets.
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They're seeing a shift at the institutional level.
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So there's periods where it's behaving more risk on,
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and that's partly driven by some of the speculative traders
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that exist in the market, often with leverage.
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And there's periods where it behaves more risk off.
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And certainly in the last couple of weeks,
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the latter narrative has risen back to the forefront.
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I think in the long run,
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that's the narrative to bet on around Bitcoin.
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That's how most of the long-term institutional type
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investors that we engage with are seeing it. That's how the long-term institutional investors
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that they engage with, BlackRock, that's how they're seeing it. So not only is it BlackRock's
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position, but that's how their clients are seeing it. That's what he's saying right now. That's what
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Robby's saying. Institutional type investors that we engage with are seeing it. And the idea is that
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Bitcoin by its nature is this global, scarce, decentralized, emerging monetary alternative.
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And ultimately, its long run risk and return drivers are going to be quite distinct from
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most other asset classes that investors
have.
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And so, indeed, it's been the case the last couple of weeks, equities and other asset
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classes have been pretty challenged.
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They've been under some pressure.
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Fixed income markets have been choppy.
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And you've seen Bitcoin as well as gold, but particularly Bitcoin, have a fairly significant rally because of that distinct nature and the way it's seen as this emerging store value.
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And Strategy started buying again this week. They bought 4,603 Bitcoin for $370 million. So Strategy now holds 845,050 Bitcoin. So do the math with me, boys and girls, because here's how I see it. So they sold over the summer a total of 6,916 Bitcoin. And they just bought 8,260 Bitcoin.
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uh, over two, over two weeks, a total of 8,000. So they, this, this recent announcement was 4,603.
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Sorry, the numbers are a little confusing, but what I find interesting here is it would appear.
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And, uh, I had the Grokbot double check this math that strategy has ended up with a net addition
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of 1,344 Bitcoin. After all the drama about will they, won't they sell? Oh, strategy selling
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another week strategy selling they're buying cash or whatever they're you know whatever they were
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doing buying their own shares but it would appear if this grok math is right that through all of that
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they're actually up 1 344 bitcoin and it sounds like unless things take a dive right unless things
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change it sounds like they're not planning on selling any more for the foreseeable future
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what needs to happen or or what would indicate to you the next right time to actually offload
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some Bitcoin from a balance sheet? We're a net accumulator, right? And so I don't sit around and
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say, well, when am I going to sell Bitcoin next? It comes down to a bit of a capital management
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mathematical equation of when we would do it. I don't foresee us selling Bitcoin as we enter into
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what I consider a pretty heavy bull market. And yeah, we'll be buying Bitcoin at 80,000. We'll
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likely be buying Bitcoin at 90, at 100. And when Bitcoin hits 130,000 at an all-time high,
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we'll be buying it. And people will say, we're buying the top. And when it's at 260,000,
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people will say the $130,000 Bitcoin was a good purchase.
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Okay. All right. I love it. All right. This next clip
I wanted to play because it's an
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interesting quick debate on CNBC. Listen for just the bullish capitulation in this, essentially,
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because the worst thing that they can come up with for Bitcoin is a short-term, near-term issue.
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And the bullish case that they can come up with would be like a 20-year bull run.
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In order to be bullish, I think of Bitcoin here.
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You had the administration news.
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You had the thing with Besant a week and a half, two weeks ago.
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That was a tailwind.
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The headwind now comes in the form of a Fed that apparently is going to hike in September.
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A lot of people think that.
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I am not one of them.
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But a hawkish Fed is not bullish for Bitcoin.
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So I think buyer beware at 80,000.
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All right.
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Tim, you got a quick word?
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Well, I think the dollar is going lower at some point.
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And therefore, that is certainly an ingredient for a Bitcoin rally.
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It's not the only ingredient.
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But all those reasons that we're concerned about with deficits and the reasons why people are buying gold, some piece of that is a Bitcoin rally.
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Yeah.
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I guess if you're watching CNBC and don't understand what kind of investment setup they're implying that is, you just need to turn the TV off.
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Speaking of that, over on the fancy for rich clients only TV network, a.k.a. the Schwab Network, their message to clients is clear as a bell.
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We've really seen a rebirth of the debasement trade, whether you're looking at gold and precious metals or cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
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As the press started, we saw gold and Bitcoin both sell off and they're slightly down on day, but they require.
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But the total tone of that conference was very hawkish, obviously, with investors starting to price in rate hikes.
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That does put the debasement narrative maybe back into track.
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And so I think crypto prices are reflecting to that news this morning.
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Ironically, if the Fed doesn't cut, it's likely going to result in a bit of a pamp.
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And it seems pretty hard for the Fed to raise rates, right?
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So if the Fed just holds, they don't have to cut.
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They don't have to raise.
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I think if they just hold, it's likely going to be a PAMP.
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Now, if they do cut, it's going to be a PAMP.
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But that seems unlikely.
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It is pretty.
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Let's look it up right now, because I've been finding this one.
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This we have been seeing a massive divergence in what polymarket the people, in other words, think is going to happen in September versus what the big banks think is going to happen.
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So on Polymarket right now, as I look at it, I see they. Wow. Polymarket's crazy. Polymarket thinks there's going to be a 25 basis points decrease. Polymarket is pricing in. That's crazy. No.
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All right. Well, anyways, the divergence between Polymarket and the big banks is just absolutely crazy at this time. The big banks are all pricing in a rate hike. Polymarket's pricing in a rate hold or cut. If we get a hold or a cut, I think that's going to be a great thing for Bitcoin. This debasement trade isn't a 10 minute thing. It's not a one quarter thing. It's not a one Fed rate decision thing. So I hope you're getting how bullish this is.
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I hope you're wrapping your head around once the dust settles, the way Bitcoin responded to this treasury buyback moment is so insanely bullish.
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It's a new type of structural setup.
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It's a new type of market fit being identified for Bitcoin.
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And it's this type of stuff that matters so much more to Bitcoin than something like the Clarity Act.
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And I just think it's really ironic because so much of the news coverage and the YouTube punditry and whatnot has been focused on the Clarity Act and what a pump it's going to be once the Clarity Act passes.
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And I remain squarely focused on macro.
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I think the Clarity Act has been a distraction the entire time.
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And I think it this stuff like the bond market stuff and the way Bitcoin responds that matters way more than one law in one country And you know there just all the promising about how it going to pump after clarity passes
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completely missing the situation over here.
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You know, yeah, I'm sure when clarity does pass,
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if it does pass, we probably will see a micro pump, right?
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We'll probably see it.
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What I mean by that is a time relative pump for a minute, right?
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We'll see a pump for a minute.
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But what we're talking about today is structural. It's long term. It's baked in. The bed is made and now the market sees the two forces fighting each other. And Arthur Hayes, he sees it this way.
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The Clarity Act for crypto. How significant is it?
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Insignificant. Doesn't matter. Who cares?
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You hate it.
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I don't hate it. I mean, if I was a person building a US-focused market crypto project,
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and I needed to get money from US venture capital firms, I absolutely understand why you like the
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Clarity Act. You want regulation that gives you some sort of moat so you can attempt to block
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your customers from doing things because you spent more money on lawyers than they did.
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I get it 100%. That's not the type of investing that I do in crypto. I'd rather just buy a stock.
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So if that is your game, that's your game.
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I think the Clarity Act is a terrible thing for US crypto, for actual creativity, for
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actual builders building things that are useful, that have product market fit.
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Bitcoin didn't need the Clarity Act from 2009 until the present.
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It doesn't need it until the future.
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What does it need?
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Buffalo Bill Besson trying to save the US treasury market by upping his buybacks overnight
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or trying to print money using the Fed to help the Japanese swap their treasury.
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for cash. That's what Bitcoin needs. It doesn't need a Clarity Act to go up. And again, the Clarity
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Act has been talked about ad nauseum for the past, what is it, like two years? And what we just
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generate one of the largest moves of recent history? Because again, the market has recognized
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that the debt issue in the US is a real issue and yield curve control is coming.
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I think he nails it right there. So I want to know your thoughts.
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And also I want to remind you that this is a value for value podcast and I don't have any
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sponsors. That's been an intentional choice, but it is not the choice of a luxurious lifestyle.
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And often the hourly rate of this show breaks down to, well, you wouldn't want to look at it
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00:19:38,302 --> 00:19:44,302
too often. It looks pretty low. And so I would love if you went over to boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com,
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00:19:44,502 --> 00:19:49,122
send a little fiat or sats towards the show and put a message in there for me too. Questions,
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your thoughts on anything talked about here, the macro stuff. I don't have a particular question
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for you this week is just sort of a plea to keep supporting the show. I know it can be difficult
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on the sustain, but the show is a high energy, high research, high intensity work show. I don't
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mind the work at all, but I am also a businessman and I got to focus my priorities wherever they make
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the most sense. And so your support helps me stay focused. That's just the reality of it.
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That's just, and I think that makes, and I'm just being completely honest with you and transparent.
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I think it makes total sense. If you ever owned a business, I think you know exactly what I'm
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talking about. So with all of that, it's time to get into the rest of the show.
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You also support the show just by doing what you do. If you want to stack sats on river,
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00:20:47,422 --> 00:20:48,662
You can support the show doing that.
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Use my link in the show notes.
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The Bitcoin well, if you're all about self-custody and you want to go right to your own wallet,
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they don't have a wallet for you on their platform.
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That's the Bitcoin well, an amazing automatic self-custody platform.
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It's time to take your sats and load them into a gift card and go get yourself or someone else something.
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Check out the Bitcoin company.
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They only deal with Bitcoin, hundreds of gift cards, over the Lightning Network, sats to gift card instantly.
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Then, when it becomes time to live life, pay the bills.
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Do the day-to-day.
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Check out the Fold card.
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You can stack sats as you do the day-to-day.
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And if you need to get access to your Bitcoin without selling it,
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aka a Bitcoin-backed loan, I recommend two places, Salt Lending and Strike.
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Use them both.
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I think they're great.
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Different product offerings, both extremely good.
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And honestly, Strike goes from strength to strength.
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No official affiliation with those companies, but I do use them myself, and you can support the show by doing what you do.
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It is time for some boosts.
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Four score and seven boosts to go.
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And let's start with our baller booster, who is J-Cube, coming in with 70,000 sats.
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J-Cube writes, yep, I built a two of three multi-sig wallet with the Jade, Bitbox, and Trezor using Sparrow.
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I just grew up on Sparrow and really like it.
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If there's something better or a compelling reason not to use it, do let us know.
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Boosty, boosty, boost, boost.
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You know what, J-Cube, I don't have any compelling reason not to use it.
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Use it myself.
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Like it a lot.
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Boosty, boosty, boosty, boost.
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I think the only thing I would add is they just released an update, and you probably want to do that update.
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The old Spurrow Watt, I think, just had a solid update.
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But thank you for that overview.
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That's a really good setup, and I like the multi-vendor aspect of it.
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I think Trezor, Bitbox, and Jade are all extremely good.
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Of the two, I think Jade and Bitbox I have a real strong preference for, and the Trezor, I think, is a good third in there, too.
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So, you know what, J-Cube, you get the Twib stamp of approval.
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Make it so.
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00:23:03,542 --> 00:23:04,782
Thank you very much for being our baller.
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North Lake Hoddle comes in with 34,567 satoshis.
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00:23:15,502 --> 00:23:16,282
Using the web boost.
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Chris, thanks for your amazing work and filtering out the best signal for us lowly plebs.
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Much appreciation.
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00:23:21,442 --> 00:23:23,682
I would boost every episode, but Fountain fights with me.
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And I did another pod app, and I'm lazy.
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as to the four-year cycle i think we're in a vicious feedback loop now so it echoes yeah that's
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00:23:31,102 --> 00:23:37,822
a good way to put it north lake uh nor is it north lake north lake a huddle a huddle a huddle
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00:23:37,822 --> 00:23:44,022
um i think if you are on ios you could check out castomatic i do think fountain's really good
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00:23:44,022 --> 00:23:47,842
um antenna pod is pretty strong especially if you're going to use the web boost
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some really good options actually you can always also try resetting fountain and logging back in
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and see if it works for you.
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Good luck, sir, and thank you for the boost.
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00:23:55,362 --> 00:23:56,222
I really do appreciate it.
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00:23:56,702 --> 00:23:59,102
OB's here with 21,000 sats.
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To the longest video.
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21 gigawatts!
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00:24:01,702 --> 00:24:02,642
You know, that's really growing on me.
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I watch every single Macro Monday,
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00:24:05,022 --> 00:24:08,022
and Mick Retard is 100% paid to say what he says.
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00:24:08,102 --> 00:24:11,082
He's talking about, what's his name?
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00:24:11,682 --> 00:24:12,762
Not John McClane.
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00:24:14,282 --> 00:24:15,222
That's diehard.
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00:24:15,782 --> 00:24:17,922
But, you know, the Bloomberg analyst I played last week.
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He's 100% paid to say what he says.
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I can't even put into words how smart I think he is and how intentional his spin is.
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Really, OB, that strong, you think, huh?
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Mike, Mike McClone.
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Ah, the old noodle got it.
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You know what, OB?
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00:24:32,602 --> 00:24:34,162
I am tending to think you're right.
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I just hate to think that about somebody.
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00:24:35,962 --> 00:24:38,002
But thank you very much for the boost and the data point.
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00:24:38,542 --> 00:24:40,182
And I'm glad you're watching Macro Monday.
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00:24:40,722 --> 00:24:44,442
They kind of always talk about the same thing, but it's also iterative.
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So there you go.
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00:24:46,442 --> 00:24:48,182
I mean, it does sound to move forward, too.
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Thank you.
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Gene Bean comes in with a row of McDuck.
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00:24:50,822 --> 00:24:52,982
That's two boosts of a row of ducks.
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00:24:53,122 --> 00:24:55,342
Things are looking up for all McDuck.
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00:24:55,462 --> 00:24:57,482
4,444 Satoshis.
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00:24:57,842 --> 00:24:59,702
Swaps are back in bowl wallet.
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00:25:00,402 --> 00:25:01,602
Yes, good to see.
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00:25:01,662 --> 00:25:02,642
And he links me to the post.
331
00:25:03,162 --> 00:25:06,542
Also, there's another couple in the works.
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I don't know if they're in public testing yet,
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00:25:08,782 --> 00:25:11,702
but I'll let you know when I have a take on them.
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00:25:12,342 --> 00:25:14,582
Gene continues, a follow-up to my multisig question.
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I looked into Nunchak and came away disappointed.
336
00:25:16,862 --> 00:25:18,822
The Linux app has real issues on Ubuntu.
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00:25:18,942 --> 00:25:23,402
Wayland. The Mac OS one still doesn't have Apple Silicon version. They have no security reporting
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00:25:23,402 --> 00:25:28,682
or related info on their website. And the only CLI repo has a security and their only CLI repo
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00:25:28,682 --> 00:25:32,582
has a security MD or related info in it. For an app with a team and a company behind it,
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00:25:32,602 --> 00:25:36,142
this is worrisome. On top of that, both Mac and Linux have some real UX issues too.
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00:25:37,002 --> 00:25:41,522
Yeah, I agree. When I tried it on Linux, I was a little underwhelmed. And I think that was one
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00:25:41,522 --> 00:25:46,082
of the reasons I didn't go the nunchuck route. I really like what they offer and their mobile apps
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are really solid.
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00:25:46,882 --> 00:25:47,742
And I think that's probably
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the primary way
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their customers use it, Gene.
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00:25:50,322 --> 00:25:51,382
But I, like you,
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for some reason
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00:25:51,962 --> 00:26:02,633
when I dealing with a large amount of money just don like doing it on the phone I don know man I mean I do I do it from time to time But I guess I uh that how you know I a millennial I suppose
350
00:26:03,593 --> 00:26:05,473
If I were to accept the title.
351
00:26:05,813 --> 00:26:06,273
Thank you, Gene.
352
00:26:06,673 --> 00:26:08,333
A. Sackerman comes in with a row of ducks.
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00:26:09,173 --> 00:26:10,613
2,222 sats.
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00:26:10,953 --> 00:26:12,533
The four-year cycle is a narrative
355
00:26:12,533 --> 00:26:14,293
pushed by trading degen class
356
00:26:14,293 --> 00:26:16,133
to fleece the BTC plebs.
357
00:26:16,133 --> 00:26:19,073
And it will be successful as the market cap grows.
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00:26:19,533 --> 00:26:20,773
Oh, man!
359
00:26:21,333 --> 00:26:22,713
That's some nice bacon.
360
00:26:22,713 --> 00:26:23,833
Fun will now commence.
361
00:26:23,913 --> 00:26:24,933
That's a fun one.
362
00:26:25,053 --> 00:26:26,153
I like that.
363
00:26:26,173 --> 00:26:27,893
This is a tasty burger.
364
00:26:28,373 --> 00:26:28,993
Why not?
365
00:26:29,913 --> 00:26:30,473
Why not?
366
00:26:30,693 --> 00:26:31,113
Why not?
367
00:26:31,613 --> 00:26:32,913
Ace, you might be onto something there.
368
00:26:32,953 --> 00:26:33,453
I like it.
369
00:26:33,793 --> 00:26:37,593
Kiwi Bitcoin guides here with 6,543 satushers.
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00:26:37,593 --> 00:26:39,573
Put some macaroni and cheese on there, too.
371
00:26:40,153 --> 00:26:42,653
I'd like to hear more about places to use Bitcoin as money,
372
00:26:42,733 --> 00:26:44,993
especially any online services that you are aware of.
373
00:26:45,273 --> 00:26:46,733
I know there's VPNs, email services,
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00:26:46,913 --> 00:26:49,013
AI aggregators who accept sats anymore.
375
00:26:49,013 --> 00:26:53,493
I always thought using stats to support open source projects and developers should be an easy win.
376
00:26:54,073 --> 00:27:01,813
You know, Kiwi, what would be nice is like a directory or a wiki if there's, I don't know about that, but a directory of some kind that has a JSON feed.
377
00:27:01,873 --> 00:27:03,053
You could feed your clanker, obviously.
378
00:27:03,413 --> 00:27:05,913
I mean, you got to be modern because wiki is the opposite of modern, I guess.
379
00:27:07,693 --> 00:27:17,173
You know, the other thing to consider, too, is like, is maybe the modern way really more like a line of credit that you use to pay off a credit card that gets you the perks you want?
380
00:27:17,173 --> 00:27:28,193
And so the Bitcoin is like the back end bank reserve note and you're using the fiat rails for the day to day purchases and then you're settling with the Bitcoin when it comes time.
381
00:27:28,713 --> 00:27:31,673
Assuming maybe you could even kind of time the market a little bit there on a gain.
382
00:27:32,033 --> 00:27:32,473
I don't know.
383
00:27:32,513 --> 00:27:33,253
What do you think of that, Kiwi?
384
00:27:33,533 --> 00:27:37,433
And is maybe not the solution direct one to one point of sales?
385
00:27:37,733 --> 00:27:40,913
I think the biggest win, though, we've seen in that regard recently, right, is Square.
386
00:27:40,913 --> 00:27:45,733
Square-enabled lightning payments on any Square terminal that the customers want to,
387
00:27:45,853 --> 00:27:47,533
the point of salespeople want to turn it on.
388
00:27:47,913 --> 00:27:50,293
Hey, Gene Bean's back with some more sneaky sets.
389
00:27:50,333 --> 00:27:51,473
Would you look at that?
390
00:27:51,673 --> 00:27:52,973
That's not possible.
391
00:27:53,113 --> 00:27:54,153
Nothing can do that.
392
00:27:54,533 --> 00:27:55,893
Thank you, by the way, Kiwi.
393
00:27:56,273 --> 00:27:59,373
Gene Bean comes in with this sneaky boost because he has a question for the audience.
394
00:27:59,553 --> 00:28:04,593
Anyone got any suggestions for Bitcoin education materials for elementary age kids?
395
00:28:05,433 --> 00:28:09,473
Ooh, elementary age is an interesting, I think maybe you got to go more money fundamentals,
396
00:28:09,473 --> 00:28:16,153
perhaps? Like, I would say, Gene, maybe here's something to look for, is a thought technology
397
00:28:16,153 --> 00:28:21,813
to instill upon the elementary children, which is we have a real problem in society today
398
00:28:21,813 --> 00:28:29,593
where capitalism has become a bad word and is a shorthand for anything wrong in market dynamics.
399
00:28:30,133 --> 00:28:35,633
So data centers run amok is capitalism, or you're paying too much for your bananas and your eggs.
400
00:28:35,633 --> 00:28:42,373
that's capitalism, right? And children need to understand that human barter at its basic level
401
00:28:42,373 --> 00:28:48,073
is a form of capitalism. And we would be trading with each other in some means if it were not for
402
00:28:48,073 --> 00:28:54,313
cash and money or Bitcoin. We'd be using shells, right? We'd be using rocks. We'd be using bottle
403
00:28:54,313 --> 00:29:00,833
caps because we have to abstract away our time and energy because you might not want a cow and
404
00:29:00,833 --> 00:29:06,213
else all I got is cows, right? I got
lots of eggs at home, Gene, but you might have eggs too. And
405
00:29:06,213 --> 00:29:11,453
the only currency I've got is eggs. So we have to have an abstracted layer that is, we all agree,
406
00:29:11,573 --> 00:29:17,113
valuable that we can trade for time and energy. And I think maybe getting children to understand
407
00:29:17,113 --> 00:29:24,513
that, that capitalism is a basic natural human function. And that like what we see today isn't
408
00:29:24,513 --> 00:29:30,353
because capitalism, it's because corruption, market distortions, et cetera, et cetera. And I
409
00:29:30,353 --> 00:29:34,893
don't know what book that is, but that'd be the direction I might consider. Thank you, Gene. Good
410
00:29:34,893 --> 00:29:40,533
to hear from you again. Orange Mart's here with 5,000 sats. Everything's under control. No message,
411
00:29:40,633 --> 00:29:47,873
just value. Thank you, sir. Your inner child's here with 2,120 sats. When Bitcoin came online in
412
00:29:47,873 --> 00:29:54,953
2009, there would only be 2.1 quadrillion sats in existence. At the same time, there were 8.9
413
00:29:54,953 --> 00:30:03,493
quadrillion U.S. mills. In other words, $0.001 cent and 169 quadrillion micrograms of gold.
414
00:30:03,953 --> 00:30:12,533
A microgram of gold today trades for 0.0001 cent, while a sat is about 0.007 cent. Also,
415
00:30:12,533 --> 00:30:19,053
there's been no Bitcoin printing after 2009. And it only goes from there. And you know what I like
416
00:30:19,053 --> 00:30:23,913
you did there is you went down way down, right? You went way down there, right? Because we often
417
00:30:23,913 --> 00:30:29,693
talk about it in one Bitcoin terms, but there isn't really anything called, there isn't a Bitcoin,
418
00:30:30,133 --> 00:30:34,993
there isn't one Bitcoin in the Bitcoin network. It is just a denominator of Satoshi. So I really
419
00:30:34,993 --> 00:30:41,293
like that. Thank you, your inner child. Nakamoto is here with 3,500 sats. This is why I have bedtime
420
00:30:41,293 --> 00:30:46,073
wine. I don't think there's a four-year cycle. Bitcoin's price bottom and busts are just a mirror
421
00:30:46,073 --> 00:30:52,033
of where our economy's at. Definitely got to be a component of that. Definitely. Right. But it's
422
00:30:52,033 --> 00:30:56,173
not, you know, it's not just our economy. That's the other thing that gets me. That's where it
423
00:30:56,173 --> 00:31:02,653
gets a little messy. Adversary 17 is here with 4,096 sats. Thank you, Nakamoto. 10 gold blooms
424
00:31:02,653 --> 00:31:06,393
out of a possible 10 gold blooms. I'd love to think that when your son asks why the price is
425
00:31:06,393 --> 00:31:09,933
going up, you get out and pipe up and say, well, now sit down, son, and let me tell you.
426
00:31:11,753 --> 00:31:17,913
I do give him the short version. In fact, a lot of times, not a lot of times, I shouldn't say that
427
00:31:17,913 --> 00:31:21,393
because that makes me sound bad. But initially, I kind of did the sailor snort, if you know what
428
00:31:21,393 --> 00:31:25,213
talking about where when somebody asked sailor uh why what is that question about bitcoin he's
429
00:31:25,213 --> 00:31:30,513
asked to answer a million times he often goes well and then he does like a whole explanation
430
00:31:30,513 --> 00:31:35,453
that's what i sometimes do is i pause for a moment i replay the show in my head and i'm like how can
431
00:31:35,453 --> 00:31:39,833
i say this in 30 seconds you know it's a good exercise actually it really is because then if
432
00:31:39,833 --> 00:31:46,473
i can explain it to them in 30 seconds i know i can do a show segment on it thank you 17 appreciate
433
00:31:46,473 --> 00:31:53,613
you the atomic ass is here with five dollars of fiat adversary 17's concern about the lack of
434
00:31:53,613 --> 00:32:00,113
entropy on air gap systems has me thinking could an sdr be used as an entropy source yeah i've
435
00:32:00,113 --> 00:32:06,933
wondered that too or um you know the wi-fi radio too right uh yeah or like uh like a laura radio
436
00:32:06,933 --> 00:32:12,253
too perhaps like on the mesh tab like could radio noise in general be more used i think the linux
437
00:32:12,253 --> 00:32:14,673
kernel does use network noise and it uses bus noise.
438
00:32:14,773 --> 00:32:19,773
So there's a lot of noise sources in the computer that the Linux kernel pulls from.
439
00:32:20,413 --> 00:32:20,953
Thank you, Atomic.
440
00:32:21,193 --> 00:32:22,073
Appreciate that.
441
00:32:22,553 --> 00:32:23,053
Gene Bean.
442
00:32:23,953 --> 00:32:26,013
Gene Bean's back with a member boost.
443
00:32:26,353 --> 00:32:26,873
He's a good guy.
444
00:32:27,133 --> 00:32:28,093
He's a real good guy.
445
00:32:28,253 --> 00:32:28,893
No, he's a great guy.
446
00:32:29,193 --> 00:32:30,133
Oh, I don't know if I can open.
447
00:32:30,353 --> 00:32:31,433
Well, oh, you gave me the primal link.
448
00:32:31,493 --> 00:32:32,013
That'll probably open.
449
00:32:32,013 --> 00:32:37,133
Curious on your take on the idea that this post and similar ones floating around regarding
450
00:32:37,133 --> 00:32:38,093
cold card.
451
00:32:38,093 --> 00:32:43,113
and he links to a primal post that, gosh darn it,
452
00:32:43,133 --> 00:32:44,893
I have the worst luck on air with Nostra links.
453
00:32:45,653 --> 00:32:47,433
That is not loading for me, Gene,
454
00:32:47,853 --> 00:32:49,273
but I will try to load it after the show.
455
00:32:50,393 --> 00:32:53,573
I'm not a big subscriber if it's a conspiracy around cold card.
456
00:32:53,773 --> 00:32:55,993
I am not a big subscriber to that.
457
00:32:56,953 --> 00:32:59,693
I think they screwed up huge, though,
458
00:33:00,193 --> 00:33:02,833
and I think they were lying in a sense.
459
00:33:03,133 --> 00:33:04,773
That might be too hard of a word.
460
00:33:05,453 --> 00:33:05,873
Maybe not.
461
00:33:05,873 --> 00:33:18,173
I think they were presenting as a larger
company with more people involved and pretending sometimes to be outside contributors, at least in one provable example, maybe to get around open source licenses and things like that.
462
00:33:18,173 --> 00:33:22,773
Right. So when you really dig into it, there's a lot that I don't like and a lot of hubris that led to this.
463
00:33:23,173 --> 00:33:27,613
So, you know, and I think you can get there without any kind of conspiracies if that's what the post is about.
464
00:33:28,293 --> 00:33:30,833
All right. Thank you, everybody, especially Gene really coming.
465
00:33:30,833 --> 00:33:33,213
And Gene, you just pop, pop, popping in.
466
00:33:33,293 --> 00:33:39,373
And of course, a big thank you to J-Cube, who came in with our 70,000 sat baller boost this week, really helped push that number up.
467
00:33:39,613 --> 00:33:41,133
So let's summarize it all up.
468
00:33:41,133 --> 00:33:44,153
We had 23 of you stream Satoshis as you listen.
469
00:33:44,353 --> 00:33:45,773
That's something you can do in the podcasting.
470
00:33:45,853 --> 00:33:47,533
Just stream those sats as you listen.
471
00:33:48,053 --> 00:33:53,133
And together, you all stacked 38,756 Bitcoin.
472
00:33:53,473 --> 00:33:54,333
Well, I'll be dipped.
473
00:33:54,353 --> 00:33:55,133
Not too bad.
474
00:33:55,133 --> 00:34:07,033
When you bring it together, including some fiat boosts that have just been converted to sats at our current market value, our total for this week is 218,895 satoshis.
475
00:34:10,373 --> 00:34:11,933
You know, not our best week.
476
00:34:12,033 --> 00:34:15,593
In fact, the last couple of weeks haven't been our best week, but it is the end of summer.
477
00:34:16,233 --> 00:34:20,953
And I guess we only get great support when things are blowing up.
478
00:34:21,873 --> 00:34:24,933
But I stay here every week reporting and keeping track.
479
00:34:25,133 --> 00:34:26,313
I appreciate your support too.
480
00:34:26,453 --> 00:34:30,233
Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com or a podcasting 2.0 app.
481
00:34:30,573 --> 00:34:33,153
Or put your support on autopilot at jupiter.party.
482
00:34:33,473 --> 00:34:35,933
And then you get a free member boost with every single...
483
00:34:35,977 --> 00:34:50,417
episode. All right, with that, I think we get in to some rather interesting updates this week.
484
00:34:50,417 --> 00:35:07,757
this first one was a pleasant surprise we just saw bitcoin's first quantum safe transaction
485
00:35:07,757 --> 00:35:15,777
yes the first post quantum bitcoin transaction was broadcasted this week friends no soft fork
486
00:35:15,777 --> 00:35:24,357
required, no hard fork required, no protocol upgrades were required either. And it's actually
487
00:35:24,357 --> 00:35:31,357
live on the blockchain today. And yesterday we were able to take this beyond a proof of concept.
488
00:35:31,937 --> 00:35:37,737
Last night we submitted the first QSB transaction on Bitcoin Mainnet and I'm very excited to announce
489
00:35:37,737 --> 00:35:44,017
that as of I think five hours ago that transaction has been mined by Mara's slipstream and is live
490
00:35:44,017 --> 00:35:50,997
on Bitcoin mainnet. This is a monumental moment. This is the first post-quantum-resistant Bitcoin
491
00:35:50,997 --> 00:35:58,677
transaction on Bitcoin mainnet today. It required no soft forks, it required no hard forks,
492
00:35:59,357 --> 00:36:06,137
it required no core protocol upgrades, and it's live today. And so just to really paint the picture
493
00:36:06,137 --> 00:36:09,177
of what this means for all of you here and what this means for us and what this means for your
494
00:36:09,177 --> 00:36:13,977
businesses, right? We've built essentially a parachute, right? As we're flying through this
495
00:36:13,977 --> 00:36:20,097
quantum storm, we have a parachute in the airplane. Or as we're facing the threat of the impending
496
00:36:20,097 --> 00:36:25,677
quantum nuclear war, we have a doomsday bunker. That's what this product is. What this product is
497
00:36:25,677 --> 00:36:34,017
not, it is not a cure for quantum. This product is still opt-in. Coins that have lost their private
498
00:36:34,017 --> 00:36:39,437
keys or coins that are lost from circulation. Those coins cannot be moved into an address with
499
00:36:39,437 --> 00:36:43,797
QSB enabled. I think that's an important distinction. So this isn't a permanent,
500
00:36:44,277 --> 00:36:49,057
everyone's going to use this, but it is an escape hatch and may help tame the quantum FUD.
501
00:36:49,537 --> 00:36:53,137
So the transaction happened using a method created by a StarkWave researcher that you just heard
502
00:36:53,137 --> 00:36:58,537
there from Bitcoin Asia up on stage. The method generates millions of signature candidates until
503
00:36:58,537 --> 00:37:03,777
it finds one with a specific structural property that doesn't expose the vulnerable material while
504
00:37:03,777 --> 00:37:07,997
waiting in the mempool, which is when these transactions would be vulnerable. The signature
505
00:37:07,997 --> 00:37:13,457
grinding, as it's called, is deliberately computationally expensive. A single transaction
506
00:37:13,457 --> 00:37:18,317
can take hours to produce, but that cost is what makes it resistant to quantum shortcuts.
507
00:37:18,317 --> 00:37:24,137
It's being dubbed QSB, quantum resistant Bitcoin. Now, ordinary Bitcoin nodes currently don't
508
00:37:24,137 --> 00:37:28,137
recognize this. It's a nonstandard transaction format. So that's why you heard him mention that
509
00:37:28,137 --> 00:37:31,217
It was actually brought in using Mars slipstream.
510
00:37:31,617 --> 00:37:34,677
So that's, I think, really, really great progress.
511
00:37:35,017 --> 00:37:40,197
And it's nice to know that we have multiple research angles going on.
512
00:37:40,237 --> 00:37:46,077
This is one of many quantum research projects and something that's actually in the blockchain now.
513
00:37:46,397 --> 00:37:50,017
So
you can actually point to something like that's a that's a transaction that's been mined.
514
00:37:50,257 --> 00:37:53,137
It's a quantum proof transaction in the chain right now.
515
00:37:53,277 --> 00:37:55,237
So hopefully it cuts back on some of the FUD.
516
00:37:56,357 --> 00:37:57,057
All right.
517
00:37:57,797 --> 00:37:58,717
Narrative flip alert.
518
00:37:59,597 --> 00:38:04,557
You recall when folks came out of the woodwork right around when Zcash was having its pump,
519
00:38:05,437 --> 00:38:10,657
just anecdotally, claiming that Bitcoin would never work as a central bank asset because
520
00:38:10,657 --> 00:38:11,997
it was too transparent?
521
00:38:12,817 --> 00:38:14,717
It was episode 95, in case you don't recall.
522
00:38:14,817 --> 00:38:15,917
So I understand it's been a little bit.
523
00:38:16,017 --> 00:38:16,917
Here is a reminder.
524
00:38:17,077 --> 00:38:19,297
This is Ray Dalio making an ass of himself.
525
00:38:20,077 --> 00:38:20,197
Okay.
526
00:38:20,337 --> 00:38:22,957
So Bitcoin does not have privacy.
527
00:38:22,957 --> 00:38:27,397
any transactions can be monitored,
528
00:38:27,397 --> 00:38:31,177
and then indirectly perhaps controlled.
529
00:38:31,177 --> 00:38:46,511
Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold it So it not just individuals it institutions and so on but most you know and central banks so that there are attributes of that There has been
530
00:38:46,511 --> 00:38:53,571
some question or thoughts of the development of, you know, new technologies like quantum computing
531
00:38:53,571 --> 00:39:01,031
and so on. Can there be issues regarding that? And then there's, you know, who owns it and what
532
00:39:01,031 --> 00:39:07,351
of the other exposures that they have in their portfolio, it tends to have a pretty high correlation
533
00:39:07,351 --> 00:39:16,831
with the tech stocks from an ownership. Just the supply demand is affected by if somebody gets
534
00:39:16,831 --> 00:39:22,591
squeezed in one thing, they sell something, whatever else they have. So there are those
535
00:39:22,591 --> 00:39:29,471
dynamics. It's a long way, and it's a relatively small market that's a relatively controllable
536
00:39:29,471 --> 00:39:36,731
market. I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin, but as a money, you know, it's small
537
00:39:36,731 --> 00:39:44,311
in relationship to gold. And so, you know, those are the dynamics. There is only one goal.
538
00:39:44,551 --> 00:39:49,011
What about silver? I mean, there's some things that are like obvious in there,
539
00:39:49,551 --> 00:39:54,131
but then there's some things that I think are kind of measuring the system from within the system.
540
00:39:54,391 --> 00:39:57,651
And Ray isn't really able to appreciate some of the dynamics that are building
541
00:39:57,651 --> 00:39:59,711
that are structural headwinds,
542
00:39:59,711 --> 00:40:01,431
not just in the monetary system,
543
00:40:01,551
--> 00:40:03,811
but in the social system as well.
544
00:40:03,931 --> 00:40:07,551
And this came up recently on the stage at Bitcoin Asia.
545
00:40:08,211 --> 00:40:10,931
And Baha Lee, I think is how you say his name,
546
00:40:11,051 --> 00:40:12,651
he was on stage talking about this.
547
00:40:12,951 --> 00:40:16,171
And he pointed out that trust is extremely scarce
548
00:40:16,171 --> 00:40:19,451
and it's becoming as scarce as Bitcoin.
549
00:40:20,151 --> 00:40:22,531
If let's say Naib Backeli wants to prove
550
00:40:22,531 --> 00:40:24,391
how much Bitcoin El Salvador has,
551
00:40:25,071 --> 00:40:26,091
he can just post an address
552
00:40:26,091 --> 00:40:28,151
and then he can show himself moving funds from that address.
553
00:40:28,871 --> 00:40:30,431
If, however, and this is not obvious,
554
00:40:30,771 --> 00:40:33,651
if he wanted to post a video of his Fort Knox
555
00:40:33,651 --> 00:40:34,711
with the gold bricks,
556
00:40:34,871 --> 00:40:36,351
that would not be trusted in the age of AI.
557
00:40:36,931 --> 00:40:39,211
You could do a hyper-realistic video from every angle
558
00:40:39,211 --> 00:40:41,451
with people there that look exactly like they are.
559
00:40:41,651 --> 00:40:44,491
So no one would trust a video of Fort Knox anymore, right?
560
00:40:44,831 --> 00:40:47,051
Fort Knox may as well not exist in a low trust era,
561
00:40:47,371 --> 00:40:48,491
but Bitcoin does.
562
00:40:49,211 --> 00:40:51,111
And so Bitcoin's transparency, I think,
563
00:40:51,191 --> 00:40:53,891
means it becomes a reserve currency of Western institutions
564
00:40:53,891 --> 00:40:58,451
that need to prove solvency in the post-fiat era.
565
00:40:59,031 --> 00:40:59,151
All right.
566
00:40:59,211 --> 00:41:01,071
Well, while we have the time machine handy,
567
00:41:01,371 --> 00:41:03,851
you all recall the gold bug and macro analyst Luke Groman
568
00:41:03,851 --> 00:41:06,511
was talking about selling his Bitcoin around 90,000.
569
00:41:07,071 --> 00:41:08,951
He was on the Natalie Brunel podcast
570
00:41:08,951 --> 00:41:11,771
shortly after that became public news.
571
00:41:12,311 --> 00:41:13,651
This is what he had to say.
572
00:41:16,491 --> 00:41:18,111
I know you've gotten a lot of flack
573
00:41:18,111 --> 00:41:20,051
for sharing that you sold your Bitcoin.
574
00:41:20,051 --> 00:41:23,051
You expect for us to get that whoosh down
575
00:41:23,051 --> 00:41:24,351
and you're going to buy back lower.
576
00:41:24,551 --> 00:41:25,731
I heard you say on another podcast
577
00:41:25,731 --> 00:41:27,451
that one of the reasons you sold
578
00:41:27,451 --> 00:41:28,311
or what you did with it
579
00:41:28,311 --> 00:41:30,211
is you ended up paying off another house,
580
00:41:30,271 --> 00:41:30,871
your lake house,
581
00:41:30,911 --> 00:41:32,371
where you get to watch the sun sets.
582
00:41:32,511 --> 00:41:33,911
I was thinking about the capital gains tax.
583
00:41:33,971 --> 00:41:36,011
If you
sell Bitcoin, you have to pay taxes.
584
00:41:36,011 --> 00:41:37,911
So if it crashes to maybe 60, 70,
585
00:41:37,911 --> 00:41:39,831
you're not even really making that much on it.
586
00:41:39,951 --> 00:41:41,431
At the end of the day, the real answer,
587
00:41:41,531 --> 00:41:43,371
the real reason for me is
588
00:41:43,371 --> 00:41:45,031
I think I've come to the conclusion
589
00:41:45,031 --> 00:41:47,511
that we are now completely off the reservation
590
00:41:47,511 --> 00:41:51,671
in terms of where we may end up going
591
00:41:51,671 --> 00:41:56,751
over the next couple of years. And I just felt like I wanted to have no debt whatsoever.
592
00:41:56,751 --> 00:42:02,971
But the bigger part is just, I don't know what I don't know about what's going to happen the next
593
00:42:02,971 --> 00:42:09,811
two years around the geopolitical side, the monetary side, the AI side. And so for me,
594
00:42:09,851 --> 00:42:14,491
I'm just like, you know what? I think we may go through just this huge disruptive period of time,
595
00:42:14,551 --> 00:42:18,551
this culmination of the fourth turning, and I don't want to have any debt. It probably was the
596
00:42:18,551 --> 00:42:25,091
wrong thing to do from a financial standpoint, but it was a right thing to do from a state
597
00:42:25,091 --> 00:42:30,251
of mind standpoint, just given the rising discomfort with what I'm seeing.
598
00:42:30,251 --> 00:42:31,351
Let me be specific.
599
00:42:31,351 --> 00:42:34,311
When they shot Charlie Kirk, I think a lot of things changed.
600
00:42:34,311 --> 00:42:46,425
And I think that was where I started thinking differently about some of these sort of fourth turning you know the Overton window about what could happen over the next two three years And my Overton window which is I think usually wider than most people anyway
601
00:42:47,185 --> 00:42:48,245
blew apart entirely.
602
00:42:48,825 --> 00:42:53,625
I think this is an interesting clip because it really shows that Luke let his emotions
603
00:42:53,625 --> 00:42:54,505
get the best of him.
604
00:42:54,745 --> 00:42:57,185
And unfortunately, the clients that he advises as well.
605
00:42:57,645 --> 00:43:00,685
And it turns out Natalie might have been right on that whole capital gains tax,
606
00:43:00,825 --> 00:43:04,765
washing out any kind of gains, because now we've got a new tune from Luke.
607
00:43:04,765 --> 00:43:21,905
From W4, are you long Bitcoin? I never sold out all of my Bitcoin. I sold most of it. I went from irresponsibly long after riding it from, call it, 20K to 120K back down to 96K where I sold most of it.
608
00:43:21,905 --> 00:43:32,725
By irresponsibly long and proportional to portfolios, I assume he must be comparing it to standard advisements, which is 1% to 5% of your portfolio at most.
609
00:43:32,725 --> 00:43:38,885
um now i am at a you know like slightly above what would be considered a market rate which is
610
00:43:38,885 --> 00:43:44,205
a market
weight excuse me which is it's not a lot but it i still have uh i still have some exposure
611
00:43:44,205 --> 00:43:50,685
i am getting much more interested uh like i said i'll be looking to see what happens at jackson
612
00:43:50,685 --> 00:43:58,525
hole and at and post both uh what is said and how it reacts i just don't i don't understand why he
613
00:43:58,525 --> 00:44:03,685
think so short term with it? Because let's just do the math here. So say he's right and he sold
614
00:44:03,685 --> 00:44:08,585
at 96,000 and now he's getting, quote unquote, interested again and layering back in around
615
00:44:08,585 --> 00:44:14,085
80,000 ish or even say 70,000. Like the numbers don't work out. You might look and go, oh, yeah,
616
00:44:14,085 --> 00:44:21,285
he sold at 96 and he bought back in at 80 or 75. But it's not that simple. So the moment he sold,
617
00:44:21,385 --> 00:44:26,045
he created a taxable event on whatever gains he had. And you heard him say he bought in
618
00:44:26,045 --> 00:44:33,165
way low, way low. And then he sold at 96. So his capital gains are pretty significant.
619
00:44:33,785 --> 00:44:38,345
So he created a major capital gains event. And now Bitcoin's not going to get much cheaper.
620
00:44:38,405 --> 00:44:43,485
And after paying the tax man, he may not actually have enough cash left to buy the same amount of
621
00:44:43,485 --> 00:44:47,865
Bitcoin that he sold. That's just going to be the economics of it. He'd have to either put more
622
00:44:47,865 --> 00:44:51,905
money in, but he's not going to get it from the revenue after the tax man. So this whole clever
623
00:44:51,905 --> 00:44:57,785
trade, he may end up with less Bitcoin. And the only winner in this is the IRS, not Luke,
624
00:44:57,905 --> 00:45:03,105
because like in his own words, he got a little too cute. He thought the world was going to
625
00:45:03,105 --> 00:45:07,925
completely blow up. I've played other clips of him in the past. He got emotional and he got
626
00:45:07,925 --> 00:45:12,685
lettuce hands. Now, does it go down further? Maybe still doesn't prove his thesis right,
627
00:45:12,745 --> 00:45:18,625
especially when you're talking about a long term macro asset like Bitcoin. I just think the entire
628
00:45:18,625 --> 00:45:23,445
thing has been kind of this interesting drama playing out. And so I wanted to do a little
629
00:45:23,445 --> 00:45:33,845
follow up on it, if you will. Well, Luke might not be there yet with how he sees Bitcoin,
630
00:45:34,165 --> 00:45:40,285
but Bitwise's Matt Hogan is, and he agrees it's market fit time, baby. And we're just getting
631
00:45:40,285 --> 00:45:44,805
warmed up. Yeah, look, I think Bitcoin provides a service that the world wants. The service it
632
00:45:44,805 --> 00:45:49,445
provides is the ability to store wealth in a digital format without a government or a bank.
633
00:45:50,025 --> 00:45:55,225
Gold provides the same service in a physical format. Kevin Warsh says,
you know, if you're
634
00:45:55,225 --> 00:46:01,185
under 40, Bitcoin is your gold. I think that's true. And so the case for owning it is if even a
635
00:46:01,185 --> 00:46:07,185
small fraction of the world decides they want to hold some wealth in a digital format without a
636
00:46:07,185 --> 00:46:12,985
government or a bank, the price of Bitcoin has a long roam to roam on the upside. At Bitwise,
637
00:46:12,985 --> 00:46:16,485
We think it gets to about 1.3 million by 2035.
638
00:46:16,845 --> 00:46:18,725
I can walk through the math if you're interested.
639
00:46:19,325 --> 00:46:20,885
But I think that's the base case.
640
00:46:20,985 --> 00:46:24,365
Look, we live in a world where we just crossed $40 trillion in debt.
641
00:46:24,905 --> 00:46:28,945
The US added more debt in the last year than we did in the first 211.
642
00:46:29,385 --> 00:46:33,165
We printed more money in the last quarter than we did in the global financial crisis.
643
00:46:33,725 --> 00:46:34,685
It's sort of crazy.
644
00:46:35,225 --> 00:46:42,759
A small portion allocation to Bitcoin I think makes a lot of sense And as I mentioned I think there a huge amount of upside still left in this asset
645
00:46:54,279 --> 00:47:00,059
Let's check in on the state of the network. I am wrapping up at Blockhide 965,206.
646
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:07,959
Bitcoin's priced a U.S. dollar right now, 77,280. That puts our sats per dollar at 1,294.
647
00:47:08,039 --> 00:47:14,659
We're currently down 38.8% from our all-time high 330 days ago, you effing champ.
648
00:47:15,779 --> 00:47:17,619
You diamond hand champ.
649
00:47:18,419 --> 00:47:23,659
Our difficulty retarget date is September 5th, just a couple of days away, with an estimated
650
00:47:23,659 --> 00:47:26,719
difficulty change upward of 0.7%.
651
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:31,079
There are 27,003 nodes reachable on the network.
652
00:47:32,099 --> 00:47:36,699
Bitcoin is down 1.4% from last episode, but up 0.8% for 24 hours.
653
00:47:36,699 --> 00:47:39,899
and down 30.1 year over on the year.
654
00:47:40,659 --> 00:47:41,859
And fees are low.
655
00:47:41,999 --> 00:47:43,419
Immediate is one sat per V-byte.
656
00:47:43,799 --> 00:47:44,879
Half hour is 0.10.
657
00:47:45,739 --> 00:47:47,919
Network's ticking right along, and it's strong.
658
00:47:58,039 --> 00:47:59,719
Well, if you made it this far,
659
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:02,219
my hope is that your takeaway from this episode
660
00:48:02,219 --> 00:48:04,379
is Bitcoin's bullish setup that we're seeing
661
00:48:04,379 --> 00:48:05,599
is becoming structural.
662
00:48:06,039 --> 00:48:07,079
It's becoming adopted.
663
00:48:07,339 --> 00:48:08,639
It's becoming the mentality.
664
00:48:09,119 --> 00:48:10,739
It isn't about one bill passing.
665
00:48:11,919 --> 00:48:14,819
It's about the debt system itself starting to show the cracks,
666
00:48:15,559 --> 00:48:19,139
the contentious fight between the Fed and the Treasury being obvious to everyone,
667
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:21,999
and the fact that there's no way we're going to grow our way out of all of this.
668
00:48:22,379 --> 00:48:25,839
And then you bring it all together with trust getting harder and harder to come by,
669
00:48:26,439 --> 00:48:28,879
and Bitcoin being right there for it.
670
00:48:29,359 --> 00:48:34,279
Exactly at the same time that institutions are starting to treat Bitcoin like a real long-term asset.
671
00:48:34,279 --> 00:48:36,919
that's the shift that's really setting in this week.
672
00:48:37,059 --> 00:48:39,879
It's not an immediate thing, but it's an important one.
673
00:48:40,299 --> 00:48:42,219
So it's not going away anytime soon
674
00:48:42,219 --> 00:48:43,359
and I'll continue to follow it.
675
00:48:43,599 --> 00:48:45,479
Links to what I talked about this week at links,
676
00:48:45,639 --> 00:48:48,719
at links, at thisweekinbitcoin.show.
677
00:48:48,799 --> 00:48:50,579
That's where the links are for stories
678
00:48:50,579 --> 00:48:51,859
and other things that didn't even make it in here.
679
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:54,039
Whole back catalogs over there as well.
680
00:48:54,439 --> 00:48:55,479
My goal is to give you a show
681
00:48:55,479 --> 00:48:57,979
that doesn't get distracted by the emotions or the politics.
682
00:48:58,759 --> 00:49:00,839
Let's, you know, really just gets focused on the signal.
683
00:49:00,839 --> 00:49:03,019
So that way you, yourself, your friends,
684
00:49:03,019 --> 00:49:07,619
your family, your business, whatever it is, you can plan for the future and knowing that you're
685
00:49:07,619 --> 00:49:11,079
getting it from a source that has your best interest. That's why we do the value for value
686
00:49:11,079 --> 00:49:14,059
model. And that's why we focus on the signal. So let me know how I did with the boost,
687
00:49:14,159 --> 00:49:18,239
boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com. And of course, I always love to know what you want to hear from a
688
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:24,219
future show. Always trying to work that stuff in and anything I might've missed. And also any tips
689
00:49:24,219 --> 00:49:28,779
like, you know, like hot tips for the show, like a software release, news story, you can always
690
00:49:28,779 --> 00:49:33,599
boosting those as well. All right, I'm out of here. I got to go. Thanks for joining me. See you next week.
691
00:49:58,779 --> 00:50:28,759
Thank you.
692
00:50:28,779 --> 00:50:45,359
Thank you.