TRANSCRIPCIÓN 🔗
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In this year's midterms, the stakes stretch well beyond who wins and who loses.
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It involves control of Congress, both houses, the future of President Trump's agenda, and the first look at where the country may be headed in 2028 when Americans elect the next president.
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So, what races should we focus on?
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And what's the message voters want to send to Washington?
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Professor Larry Sabato, founder of UVA's Center for Politics, is the name behind Sabato's crystal ball that's predicted winners and losers for a quarter century.
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Today, we're asking him to look into that crystal ball and tell us what he sees.
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From Ballard Studios in the nation's capital, it's 13th embark.
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I never dreamed going into a White House.
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You risk your freedom.
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We in Congress will act together when we have to act.
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They deserve better and we owe them some results.
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I believe this country's best days continue to remain ahead.
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Well, I don't have any Emmy Awards behind me yet, but you know, I'm sure they're covered.
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I'm so glad to be here on 13th and Park.
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Larry Sabodeau, this is the third time you joined us on 13th and Park.
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I can't tell you how much fun I have when you come on.
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And I think about all the work you do leading up to election night.
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What is your election night itself like?
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Oh well, when I was younger, turning 75, next birthday.
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Wow, uh, I used to go to a network, or a lot of times I'd do BBC, France, uh, TV, or whatever it was.
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And that was fun because uh they're all headquartered in DC, so it's just three hours away.
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Right.
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But that is just too much, and we have too many requests.
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So now I sit in this studio and in five or 10-minute increments, try to handle about a hundred different organizations.
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So obviously, we're gonna have to clone more of you in the the age of AI.
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I think that's doable, Larry.
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Well, you know, somebody suggested that to me, and I said the AI, Larry Savato would probably be a lot better than the real one.
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So go so let's let's talk about what everyone is now focused on, the midterms.
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What is your crystal ball saying about who's gonna carry the House, who will control the Senate?
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In the House, we think that Democrats, in the end, will control 230 plus seats.
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Now, what does the plus mean?
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We'll come out with our final predictions Monday.
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I don't know the exact count, but I don't think it's gonna be particularly close from everything that I've seen.
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So people have kind of put that one to bed, maybe wrongly, and uh focused on the Senate and certain governors' contests instead.
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And the Senate, I would never have imagined a year ago that Democrats would be on the verge of taking control of the Senate.
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I just didn't imagine it because this is the most Republican group of states that you can have of the three classes, but I think they're right on the edge of getting 50, 51, 52 somewhere in that vicinity.
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Still time for it to turn around because you have so many October and maybe even early November surprises.
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You had one uh just uh a few minutes ago on the Democratic candidate uh for Senate in Alaska.
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Turns out a staff member of hers turned over the goods about uh the second Dan Sullivan uh being put on there by her staff and the D D SCC and so on.
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So there are lots of those on both sides, you know, with the doing away with some of the tariffs on Canada certainly will help Susan Collins.
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You know, we look at the factors that drive political fates.
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This year, the cost of living, affordability certainly is front and center, corruption has become a big issue.
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It's always a referendum on the party that's in, in this case, a referendum part on the president.
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But you've said, in your own words, that every election is determined by the people who show up.
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So how much will turnout maybe drive ultimate fortunes in the Senate races in particular, where a lot of these races are within the margin of error?
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Well, that's why the Democrats are leading.
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It isn't that uh there's a well of support for them or their leadership across the country.
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It's that they're rejecting, that is, the voters are rejecting President Trump and the Republicans in Congress and elsewhere.
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They're unhappy, they want to change.
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That's normally what happens when people are unhappy.
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It's not that different, really, the 2024 in reverse.
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So it's going to be very difficult in the final days for Republicans to turn around the image of being responsible for high prices, especially on gas and diesel.
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The Iran war is enormously unpopular and connected to the price rises and a corruption you mentioned, which is absolutely important.
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How much of this also gets into kind of an irony in this election?
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On the one hand, you've got the president whose ratings are clearly down.
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On the other hand, you have the alternative, the Democratic Party.
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Generally, their disapproval numbers, latest polling I'm seeing low to mid-50s, they're not liked either.
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Could that have an impact at all in voters sending a message, you might say, both to the president and to Washington on the other side of the coin?
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Well, it's possible.
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I think it's unlikely because of the tradition you mentioned right in the beginning, which is midterm elections are used to send a message to the president, the president's party.
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Because I think most people know Democrats aren't in charge of anything.
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Part of it's their own fault, but they're not in charge of anything.
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So it's tough to place responsibility on them for the economy or the war or anything else.
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So I doubt that works, but we'll see.
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Always open to possibilities in certain close contests.
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So let's talk about three Senate races in particular: Maine, Texas, and Ohio.
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So in Maine, Susan Collins, the perennial Susan Collins from the Milltown Caribou, Maine, comes back once again to try to hold her a seat.
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One of the most independent Republican members of the Senate, when you look at her voting record, et cetera, can she survive in a state that is clearly uh more independent, probably more impacted by things that are not necessarily happening on this administration's watchlight?
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And then, of course, recent announcements like the tariffs on Canada.
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What are you looking for in that race for her to maybe pull it off one more time in a re-election?
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She's already proved it to me.
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She did it in 2020.
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And conditions then were bad for Republicans as well.
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And Biden carried Maine by about nine points.
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But the incredible thing was the polling average, which is supposed to be so accurate compared to individual polls, had her losing by about eight points.
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And instead, she won by eight points.
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Right.
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16 points difference between what the polls predicted and what actually happened.
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So frankly, I don't pay attention to the polls in Maine.
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I just don't because I think they're misleading.
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They have been and they deserve a penalty.
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They need to be in the penalty box for one election.
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Now, having said that, if she loses, it's not going to be because people are rejecting Susan Collins, other than hardcore Democrats who, you know, resent the fact that she's she approved uh his Supreme Court nominees and that kind of thing.
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And by the way, I actually observed privately, and I won't say what the circumstances were, the Republican leadership approaching her and trying to convince her to vote for one of President Trump's nominees to the court.
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And she was very resistant.
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I mean, she put up a fight.
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Now, in the end, they got her vote, but this wasn't the kind of, hey, let's just pretend that I really don't want this.
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Let's go ahead and I'll give you my vote.
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But you know, I put up a heck of a fight, didn't I?
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No, I saw it.
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She actually did put up a heck of a fight.
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As far as as Collins is concerned, what I see up there is a Democratic candidate who, frankly, is not terribly able.
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He's really unimpressive.
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I've had everybody say that to me Democrat, Republican.
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The first one was impressive, but was scandal drenched, you know, platinum.
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So they couldn't get it right.
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But if she loses to him in particular, it's gonna all be due to Donald Trump.
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I mean, there's no other reason for Trump and what comes with him, the war and the higher prices and corruption and so on, because she's done nothing particularly wrong that I can see.
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Let's hop from there to the state of Texas.
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Remember the 2018, the Beto Aurora race against Ted Cruz?
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And how many times there was a lot of conjecture about this could be the time when the Democrats break the line and Beto will come through.
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And he was full of excitement.
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He was younger, he's generational, and he ended up losing, I think, at the end by two to three points.
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This is a different ball game this year with Ken Paxton and Tyler Rico, I think starting with the candidates themselves.
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What's your opinion?
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Well, that is exactly my opinion.
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Let's start with
Paxton.
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Ask yourself a question.
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If the Republicans had ignored Trump, who was after Cornyn for almost nothing, you know, we said some bad things about him for a couple of weeks in early 2024, for goodness sakes, and a member of the leadership, well respected, had won a series of elections to statewide office, not just U.S.
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Senate.
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If they'd kept him, we would not be talking about Texas right now.
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There would be no point in it because Cornyn would have won easily.
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But instead, they went for a candidate who is drenched in scandals and problems.
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And that's what gives Taller Rico his his opening.
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Yes, he's talented.
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Yes, he's charismatic.
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He's all those words we used to use a lot in the 70s when your dad was doing political ads.
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Right.
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But it wouldn't be enough if it weren't for the substitution of candidates.
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And you know, I've resisted saying Taller Rico would win.
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But as we're approaching election day, I think that's probably what's going to happen.
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Probably.
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I want to talk about Iowa and Kansas.
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They're here two reliable, pretty deep-red Republican states.
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Both Senate candidates are in play.
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Ashley Henson in Iowa and Dr.
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Marshall in Kansas, which would have, again, to your point in the very beginning, Larry, would have been inconceivable a year ago that either seat would really be seriously threatened, but both of them are.
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Which one are you in particularly focused on as maybe the ultimate bellwether on what election night is really going to be?
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Well, I don't think either one is a bellwether because they're still tied.
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Both of them are dead tied.
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Every new poll we see, whether it's a public poll or private poll, has essentially the same thing, one or two points of difference.
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And as you say, it's incredible that that's true.
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Ashley Henson is an excellent candidate.
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She's got all the candidate skills that I was told she had, and then some.
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And she's also been smart enough to separate herself from President Trump on several issues, and that helps her.
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The Democrat, Josh Turek, had a lot of appealing personal characteristics, but he has the weight of his party on his back.
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Democrats have been out of the game for well over a decade now.
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That's tough to overcome.
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You know, I would give a tiny edge to Henson that we're watching that carefully because it is tied.
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Kansas Democrats could not have gone out and used AI better than to create the candidate they've got, Adam Hamilton, because he's the leader of the largest church denomination, semi-evangelical, in Kansas.
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Well, that's a group of voters you don't normally see picking the Democratic side.
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And the Republican incumbent, with all due respect to him, is not a good candidate.
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He doesn't have good candidate skills.
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He's the opposite of Ashley Henson.
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Again, Kansas is so Republican that President Trump there can make that one or two-point difference to pull Roger Marshall across.
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Give me a race on election night that you are really going to focus on that will pretty much validate what's going to happen.
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Ohio Senate.
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Okay.
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The reason is because Ohioans were tired of Sherrod Brown.
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That's one reason why he lost two years ago.
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And it's very rare that people come back after just two years to the same office.
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Yes, it's the other seat, but it's the same office.
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And he's running against a guy who looks good and sounds good, has been a series of statewide offices who was appointed to the seat, which was vice president Vance's before he was elected.
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Now, you would think that would be an easy victory for the Republicans, but it is not.
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I kind of think Brown will pull it out, but it's close enough.
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Brown has never broken out into a lead beyond three points.
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The governor's race, I think, is over in the Democratic direction because of that terrible ad that was put up, which by the way, your father would never have approved.
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And I'm absolutely certain of that.
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You know, he was a positive upbeat guy.
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I loved his ads.
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I still show them in class and always mention him because he was a great guy.
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And we don't do that anymore.
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I wish we could get back to it.
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If only we could sell people on the idea that many voters want to learn the positive qualities of a candidate, not just the negative qualities of the opponent.
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I'm going to go to one of the books
you wrote that wasn't the rise of political consultants that featured Robert Goodman and what other luminaries.
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Never forget that.
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But you know, about a quarter century later, you wrote a book called A More Perfect Constitution.
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In that book, you had a couple of prescriptions of how to, in your opinion, kind of right the ship in government.
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Universal national service, which I think is a tremendous idea, mandatory retirement age for Supreme Court justices, a six-year, a single six-year term for the President of the United States.
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And then you've said quote, because of the structure of the contemporary American party system, every president is polarizing.
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So to that last point, is constitutional reform, which is the other thing that was front and center in that book, is that a remedy, A, that really could right the ship?
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And B, is it in this day and age, in your opinion, Larry, doable?
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The last question is easy.
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It is not doable.
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Now, eventually, my hope is it will be, because at some point, the country with rusting structures and institutions and processes is going to have to return to the Constitution and update it, which, by the way, was exactly what all of our founders advised.
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Jefferson wanted it done every generation, once every 19 years.
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We have utterly failed.
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We need it, and we're going to have to turn to it because uh we differ too much on many of the social issues, and there's no way to bridge them.
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And I think you leave them out, you leave them to the side to the side, and then generations yet unborn will resolve which way we go on them.
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Or maybe it will change over time.
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But the structures of government have got to be updated.
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Thank you for remembering that.
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I had 23 changes to the Constitution, and I've been pushing them since the book was published in 2007.
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And uh my influence is such that I'm proud to say that exactly zero of the 23 have come to be.
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But we're going to work on that, and I know I can depend on young guys like you to continue the fight for universal public service.
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My God, it was I'm yeah, in favor of the draft.
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I'm sorry, I am.
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Come after me.
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But it was good.
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My dad loved the fact that he served during World War II with people from every stratum of society.
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And this is the way America worked best.
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Let's get back to it.
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Two final questions.
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One, what do you offer Americans in terms of hope?
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Like after the election, we're going to have a horse race.
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We'll have many horse races.
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And then after the races are done, we all go home.
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And then we have to face it could be a different Congress, could be it, could be a different Senate.
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Is that going to make a fundamental difference in the quality of life of Americans to the point where we have something to cheer for, maybe again?
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And if not, doesn't it go back to the very point of that book that until or unless we have structural reform, we're really not going to change much of anything?
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I think the latter.
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Look, let's suppose Democrats take over both houses, but they certainly don't have a veto-approved majority.
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Right.
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Well, all President Trump has to do is veto whatever they pass.
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And of course, as you know, Democrats tend to split and fight.
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So I don't know how much would be passed, but whatever is passed, it isn't going to go to fundamentals.
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So all in all, I think Americans gradually are being convinced that our system, which is fundamentally sound and for which we are very grateful to the founders, needs revision, needs reform.
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And we're going to reach the point where we have to do it.
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It's certainly not going to be under the current structure with the current office holders.
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They're just too divisive.
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So the earliest we could look at this would be beginning in January of 2029 with a new president and yet another new Congress.
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So in 2008, you came within one electoral vote of making the ultimate perfect prediction of how that race would come out.
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And now we fast forward.
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What is your final assessment?
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I know this is it changes by the day in polls, whatever.
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You've already said the House is going to go and maybe significantly.
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What's your final assessment in the Senate?
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Best Republicans can do, I think, is 50-50.
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And that suggests that Democrats will get 51 or 52.
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Now remember, if they get 51, they're not going to have control of the Senate because they don't have 60 votes and they have to worry about Senator Fetterman from Pennsylvania.
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Right.
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We'll agree with the GOP on at least some subjects.
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So, you know, again, the heart of our system is compromise.
00:18:12.160 --> 00:18:14.960
We used to do it better than any country on earth.
00:18:15.119 --> 00:18:17.039
Now we barely do it at all.
00:18:17.279 --> 00:18:19.279
We've got to get back to that.
00:18:19.440 --> 00:18:22.319
That's the way we make our offices run, for example.
00:18:22.480 --> 00:18:23.759
We all experience that.
00:18:23.920 --> 00:18:26.640
Our families, we compromise all the time, right?
00:18:27.039 --> 00:18:28.000
We know how to do it.
00:18:28.319 --> 00:18:33.039
Well, let's apply that at the national and state and local level in government too.
00:18:33.279 --> 00:18:41.599
Well, Larry Saboteau, for the third time on 13th and Park, can't tell you how much I appreciated your friendship as well as your wisdom.
00:18:41.759 --> 00:19:00.880
And I hope in the many, many years you and I still have to tread on the face of this earth that we can bring people to a better place of expecting more from government, more from politics, frankly, and the kind of leadership we know is deep inside the American ethos.
00:19:01.359 --> 00:19:05.359
We just have to rediscover that as we start to move forward.
00:19:05.680 --> 00:19:08.079
Let's hope, and we at least have to try.
00:19:08.240 --> 00:19:14.640
That would be the ultimate abandonment of the fundamentals in the United States and our founders if we did not try.
00:19:14.880 --> 00:19:16.640
Larry Sabato, get some rest.
00:19:16.799 --> 00:19:18.000
I think you're going to need it.
00:19:18.319 --> 00:19:19.920
Thank you very much for that.
00:19:20.240 --> 00:19:21.599
Always good to see you.