ABOUT THIS EPISODE
The following is the webinar for the release of the 2026 IHL Inventory Distortion Study. To download the slides and/or full study, please go to https://www.ihlservices.com/news/analyst-corner/2026/08/ondemand-when-agents-shop-inventory-cannot-lie/
Key Timestamps
[00:00–02:00] Welcome & Events
RetailROI SuperSaturday returning to Microsoft; registration supports global orphan initiatives
ASU announces three-day AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy intensive (Oct 5–7, Tempe, AZ)
[02:00–10:00] Global Retail Sales & Economic Context
Germany: -1% retail growth; drought impacting European supply chains
UK: Solid growth all year; France & Spain hit hard by wildfires
China: Flat growth at 1% (needs 5–6%); South Korea faces margin call crisis (3.5% of adult population)
Vietnam & Australia: Stars of Asia; Brazil struggling
Mexico: Growth uptick expected ahead of World Cup
[10:00–15:00] Inflation & Margins
Truflation CPI: 2.26%; key inflation in groceries (lettuce +32% pre-crisis, jalapeno issues)
Gas: $4.08 per gallon; AI is driving net profit margin increases for major retailers (first evidence Q2 2026)
IHL internally seeing 27x improvement via AI; Sophia system delivering 300:1 ROI on data verification
[15:00–23:00] Retail Performance & Inventory Distortion
Retail sales strong June; expect July bump from World Cup
GLP-1 drugs shifting grocery, clothing, and accessories dynamics
Restaurants seeing softness; Amazon Fresh taking share from traditional grocers
1.7 trillion dollar inventory distortion split between overstocks & out-of-stocks (6.2% of retail sales)
Empty shelves: $690B annually; spoilage: ~$100B; communication failures: $298B
[23:00–32:00] AI Technology Adoption & RFID Forecast
76% of demand-planning AI deployers report strong results
Winners vs. laggards: 16x adoption difference for RFID and computer vision
RFID expected growth: 291% over 2 years
Computer vision: 8,000%+ growth expected
2.3–2.5x sales and profit growth for AI deployers vs. non-deployers
[32:00–40:00] Pricing & Compliance
40+ bills in 24 states target surveillance-based pricing; EU AI Act coming August 2026
Market-responsive pricing survives; surveillance pricing will not
Loyalty, couponing, temporary sales currently carved out
Fewer than 30% of retailers use dynamic KVI (key value items) identification
Up to 40% of promotions generate negative ROI when cannibalization is counted
[40:00–56:00] Q&A & Future Outlook
90-second rule: Consumers switch to Amazon if item is out of stock
Agentic commerce biggest separation opportunity for holidays; most retailer websites not optimized for agent shopping
Data integrity is foundation; single version of truth critical before deploying AI
PCI compliance on agentic transactions remains unresolved
Next session (3 weeks): "AI Reality Check — What Retailers Need to Get Right Before Scaling AI" (featuring Dell on edge computing)
