1
00:00:00,375 --> 00:00:02,163
Good morning , everyone !
2
00:00:02,163 --> 00:00:06,600
I am your host , Barnaby Bull , and you are tuning in to Spy Trader .
3
00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:08,175
It is exactly 6 a.m.
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00:00:08,175 --> 00:00:13,637
here in the Pacific time zone on Sunday , March 22nd , 2026 .
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00:00:13,637 --> 00:00:22,475
I hope you have your favorite mug ready because we have a very busy week to look forward to as we enter the final full trading week of the first quarter .
6
00:00:22,475 --> 00:00:27,438
Right now , the market mood is best described as cautious optimism .
7
00:00:27,900 --> 00:00:36,962
We are seeing a resilient labor market , but the Federal Reserve is staying very focused on the data before they make any more moves with interest rates .
8
00:00:36,962 --> 00:00:43,862
Looking at the big news items for the week of March 23rd through the 27th , all eyes are on Friday .
9
00:00:43,862 --> 00:00:47,725
That is when we get the Core PCE price index report .
10
00:00:47,725 --> 00:00:54,288
This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge , and it is the big test for the last mile of inflation .
11
00:00:54,750 --> 00:01:06,438
We saw some stickiness in the services sector earlier this month , so if that PCE number comes in higher than the expected 0.2 percent , we might see a selloff in longterm Treasuries .
12
00:01:06,438 --> 00:01:13,987
That would put a lot of pressure on the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , which traders know as TLT .
13
00:01:13,987 --> 00:01:16,975
In the tech world , the focus is shifting .
14
00:01:16,975 --> 00:01:22,112
We are moving from just buying chips to looking at how software is actually being used .
15
00:01:22,575 --> 00:01:30,963
While NVIDIA and Microsoft are still the big names in the Invesco QQQ Trust , we are starting to see some signs of AI exhaustion .
16
00:01:30,963 --> 00:01:35,625
Investors are looking for a real return on investment from these software firms .
17
00:01:35,625 --> 00:01:43,112
If the techheavy QQQ can not break through its current high point , we might see money move into more traditional value sectors .
18
00:01:43,112 --> 00:01:45,575
Another area to watch is Healthcare .
19
00:01:45,575 --> 00:01:52,688
We are expecting some new data on oral weightloss pills from some smaller biotech companies early this week .
20
00:01:53,175 --> 00:01:59,388
This will likely cause some movement in the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLV .
21
00:01:59,388 --> 00:02:07,138
Healthcare has actually been doing better than the S&P 500 lately as people look for growth that feels a bit safer .
22
00:02:07,138 --> 00:02:10,963
On the other hand , Real Estate is still feeling the heat .
23
00:02:10,963 --> 00:02:20,488
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF , known as VNQ , is struggling because those rate cuts are taking longer to arrive than people hoped .
24
00:02:20,950 --> 00:02:31,950
With the 10year Treasury yield near 4.2 percent , VNQ is expected to keep struggling unless the inflation data on Friday gives us a nice , cool surprise .
25
00:02:31,950 --> 00:02:36,938
As we analyze the week ahead , keep in mind that this is the end of the quarter .
26
00:02:36,938 --> 00:02:45,675
You might see some window dressing , which is when big fund managers buy up the quarter's winners to make their portfolios look better for their reports .
27
00:02:45,675 --> 00:02:50,537
This usually helps top performers like AI and big drug companies .
28
00:02:50,975 --> 00:02:56,787
For our trading recommendations this week , I suggest a barbell strategy to stay balanced .
29
00:02:56,787 --> 00:03:05,762
For your core exposure , sticking with the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , or VTI , is a smart allweather move .
30
00:03:05,762 --> 00:03:06,412
The U.S.
31
00:03:06,412 --> 00:03:16,512
economy is still robust , and VTI gives you the diversity to catch that endofquarter rally while protecting you if one specific sector takes a hit .
32
00:03:16,950 --> 00:03:25,238
If you want a more defensive play , take a look at the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund or UnitedHealth Group , ticker UNH .
33
00:03:25,238 --> 00:03:30,863
Healthcare offers a nice margin of safety if that inflation data on Friday comes in hot .
34
00:03:30,863 --> 00:03:34,562
UNH specifically has been looking strong on the charts lately .
35
00:03:34,562 --> 00:03:37,387
Don't forget to hedge your bets with a little gold .
36
00:03:37,387 --> 00:03:45,613
The SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD , have been hitting new highs this month as central banks around the world buy more of it .
37
00:03:46,050 --> 00:03:52,825
With global tensions still unresolved , GLD is a great way to protect yourself from unexpected risks .
38
00:03:52,825 --> 00:03:55,725
Finally , a word of caution on bonds .
39
00:03:55,725 --> 00:04:02,625
It is probably best to avoid the longterm bonds in TLT until we see the inflation numbers on Friday .
40
00:04:02,625 --> 00:04:15,088
If you need some bond exposure , stick to the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , or BND , which is less sensitive to the interest rate spikes we might see if inflation surprises us .
41
00:04:15,550 --> 00:04:23,900
To wrap it all up , keep your growth positions in the QQQ but balance them out with defensive spots in XLV and GLD .
42
00:04:23,900 --> 00:04:28,700
This way , you are ready for whatever the Friday afternoon data brings .
43
00:04:28,700 --> 00:04:31,163
Thanks for listening to Spy Trader .
44
00:04:31,163 --> 00:04:34,337
I am Barnaby Bull , and I will see you next time .
45
00:04:34,337 --> 00:04:35,775
Happy trading !
00:00:00,375 --> 00:00:02,163
Good morning , everyone !
2
00:00:02,163 --> 00:00:06,600
I am your host , Barnaby Bull , and you are tuning in to Spy Trader .
3
00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:08,175
It is exactly 6 a.m.
4
00:00:08,175 --> 00:00:13,637
here in the Pacific time zone on Sunday , March 22nd , 2026 .
5
00:00:13,637 --> 00:00:22,475
I hope you have your favorite mug ready because we have a very busy week to look forward to as we enter the final full trading week of the first quarter .
6
00:00:22,475 --> 00:00:27,438
Right now , the market mood is best described as cautious optimism .
7
00:00:27,900 --> 00:00:36,962
We are seeing a resilient labor market , but the Federal Reserve is staying very focused on the data before they make any more moves with interest rates .
8
00:00:36,962 --> 00:00:43,862
Looking at the big news items for the week of March 23rd through the 27th , all eyes are on Friday .
9
00:00:43,862 --> 00:00:47,725
That is when we get the Core PCE price index report .
10
00:00:47,725 --> 00:00:54,288
This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge , and it is the big test for the last mile of inflation .
11
00:00:54,750 --> 00:01:06,438
We saw some stickiness in the services sector earlier this month , so if that PCE number comes in higher than the expected 0.2 percent , we might see a selloff in longterm Treasuries .
12
00:01:06,438 --> 00:01:13,987
That would put a lot of pressure on the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , which traders know as TLT .
13
00:01:13,987 --> 00:01:16,975
In the tech world , the focus is shifting .
14
00:01:16,975 --> 00:01:22,112
We are moving from just buying chips to looking at how software is actually being used .
15
00:01:22,575 --> 00:01:30,963
While NVIDIA and Microsoft are still the big names in the Invesco QQQ Trust , we are starting to see some signs of AI exhaustion .
16
00:01:30,963 --> 00:01:35,625
Investors are looking for a real return on investment from these software firms .
17
00:01:35,625 --> 00:01:43,112
If the techheavy QQQ can not break through its current high point , we might see money move into more traditional value sectors .
18
00:01:43,112 --> 00:01:45,575
Another area to watch is Healthcare .
19
00:01:45,575 --> 00:01:52,688
We are expecting some new data on oral weightloss pills from some smaller biotech companies early this week .
20
00:01:53,175 --> 00:01:59,388
This will likely cause some movement in the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLV .
21
00:01:59,388 --> 00:02:07,138
Healthcare has actually been doing better than the S&P 500 lately as people look for growth that feels a bit safer .
22
00:02:07,138 --> 00:02:10,963
On the other hand , Real Estate is still feeling the heat .
23
00:02:10,963 --> 00:02:20,488
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF , known as VNQ , is struggling because those rate cuts are taking longer to arrive than people hoped .
24
00:02:20,950 --> 00:02:31,950
With the 10year Treasury yield near 4.2 percent , VNQ is expected to keep struggling unless the inflation data on Friday gives us a nice , cool surprise .
25
00:02:31,950 --> 00:02:36,938
As we analyze the week ahead , keep in mind that this is the end of the quarter .
26
00:02:36,938 --> 00:02:45,675
You might see some window dressing , which is when big fund managers buy up the quarter's winners to make their portfolios look better for their reports .
27
00:02:45,675 --> 00:02:50,537
This usually helps top performers like AI and big drug companies .
28
00:02:50,975 --> 00:02:56,787
For our trading recommendations this week , I suggest a barbell strategy to stay balanced .
29
00:02:56,787 --> 00:03:05,762
For your core exposure , sticking with the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , or VTI , is a smart allweather move .
30
00:03:05,762 --> 00:03:06,412
The U.S.
31
00:03:06,412 --> 00:03:16,512
economy is still robust , and VTI gives you the diversity to catch that endofquarter rally while protecting you if one specific sector takes a hit .
32
00:03:16,950 --> 00:03:25,238
If you want a more defensive play , take a look at the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund or UnitedHealth Group , ticker UNH .
33
00:03:25,238 --> 00:03:30,863
Healthcare offers a nice margin of safety if that inflation data on Friday comes in hot .
34
00:03:30,863 --> 00:03:34,562
UNH specifically has been looking strong on the charts lately .
35
00:03:34,562 --> 00:03:37,387
Don't forget to hedge your bets with a little gold .
36
00:03:37,387 --> 00:03:45,613
The SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD , have been hitting new highs this month as central banks around the world buy more of it .
37
00:03:46,050 --> 00:03:52,825
With global tensions still unresolved , GLD is a great way to protect yourself from unexpected risks .
38
00:03:52,825 --> 00:03:55,725
Finally , a word of caution on bonds .
39
00:03:55,725 --> 00:04:02,625
It is probably best to avoid the longterm bonds in TLT until we see the inflation numbers on Friday .
40
00:04:02,625 --> 00:04:15,088
If you need some bond exposure , stick to the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , or BND , which is less sensitive to the interest rate spikes we might see if inflation surprises us .
41
00:04:15,550 --> 00:04:23,900
To wrap it all up , keep your growth positions in the QQQ but balance them out with defensive spots in XLV and GLD .
42
00:04:23,900 --> 00:04:28,700
This way , you are ready for whatever the Friday afternoon data brings .
43
00:04:28,700 --> 00:04:31,163
Thanks for listening to Spy Trader .
44
00:04:31,163 --> 00:04:34,337
I am Barnaby Bull , and I will see you next time .
45
00:04:34,337 --> 00:04:35,775
Happy trading !
