ABOUT THIS EPISODE
Economist Eric Basmagian joins Jason to analyze current economic trends, focusing specifically on the housing market, inflation, and recession risks. He explains that although homebuilder profit margins have compressed and residential construction has slowed, broader macroeconomic indicators—such as rising AI capital spending and a cyclical upturn in manufacturing employment—have kept recession probability remarkably low. Basmagian also addresses the unique dynamics of the modern labor market, noting that while layoffs remain historically rare due to labor shortages, finding new employment has become exceptionally challenging, particularly for younger demographics. Finally, they discuss the long-term productivity impacts of artificial intelligence, suggesting that while the technology will inevitably displace certain workers, the market will eventually reabsorb that labor into areas of new demand.
Key Takeaways:
0:00 Bullish, bearish or neutral on the housing market
4:52 Home builders profit margins
13:58 Oh the irony
15:23 KB Homes profit margins
19:38 Cyclical and non-cyclical payrolls
24:13 Tech companies trading with each other
27:44 Ai and unemployment
38:36 Mortgage delinquency rate
41:24 What Eric does
43:18 Do nothing for long periods of time
44:17 Top AI Adopters doubled their productivity
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