WEBVTT
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What company will win the AI race in 2026?
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Yeah, it's a lot of fun for AI geeks like you and me to argue this and to follow the benchmarks and literally every single week or every other week argue about the new next best model.
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But the answer, obviously, to that question is much more nuanced than a single company.
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And the answers obviously hold extreme value for today's business owners and decision makers.
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That's because you've probably already, and if not, you will soon look at the big four in the face and say, hey, which company should our organization be using when it comes to AI?
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Microsoft, Anthropic Google or OpenAI.
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So on today's show, we're going to be giving you some of the answers, but let me just get straight to the big picture here.
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Three years ago, one company controlled AI in OpenAI, but that era is over because now you have Microsoft, Anthropic Google, and OpenAI all competing for the same thing.
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Two things mainly, the mind share, right?
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That's the uh the total number of consumers on the platform and then the enterprise dollars, right?
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How quickly uh can you get those consumers over to start using it on the business side?
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But I think the 2026 winner of the AI race will actually come down to the workflow and how easy and how accurate it is to bring in in an agentic manner your company's data and for that system to deliver enterprise ready outputs.
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And it's not necessarily gonna be the best model.
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Whoever makes it is gonna be the one that wins the AI race.
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So on today's show, we're gonna go over what the big four are actually competing for in 2026, why the chatbot era ended and what comes next, where today's large language models from each company excel and where they struggle.
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And last but not least, I am gonna give you my kind of hot take, but uh, you know, educated uh opinion, we'll say that, on who is going to win what AI race from the big four companies.
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All right, I hope you're excited.
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Well, I am.
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So if you're new here, welcome to Everyday AI in our Start Here series.
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This is the essential podcast series to both learn the AI basics and to double down on your knowledge.
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So whether you are the key decision maker in your company or you're brand new getting into AI, well, the Start Here series is for you.
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So if you haven't already, please go to StartHearseries.com.
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That is going to give you free access to our inner circle community.
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And in there, in the Start Here Series space, you can go and listen to and read the entire Start Here series.
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I believe we're already on volume 12.
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All right, and if you miss our last episode, and yes, it does help to listen to them in order.
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They're not super long, right?
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Most of them are between 25 and 35 minutes.
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And if you listen on 2x, they're even faster.
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All right.
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But in our last episode, uh, we covered measuring AI ROI, why you're doing it wrong, and the seven steps to fix it.
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My gosh, listen to that episode, put it into practice.
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But today on our Start Here series volume 12, we're going over the state of the AI race, who's gonna win?
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So let's get into it and talk about what's changed.
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Uh, and well, to put it simply, the chatbot era is very gone.
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It's done, right?
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Bless up.
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Um, I'd say even toward the middle of 2025, a lot of enterprise decision makers were still looking at AI like a chatbot.
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It's not like that anymore.
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In my opinion, I think GPT-5.4 uh thinking from OpenAI is kind of the first uh daily driver model that you can look at across the entire business spectrum and be like, yes, we now have probably, right, depending on how educated you are, right?
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Um, in terms of uh large language models and knowing how they work, right?
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And yes, there's other great models, Gemini 3.1 Pro, uh Claude Opus 4.6, but I think we're probably now finally in March 2026, at the time where you can have a single model that is generally intelligent enough and transparent enough to be like, okay, we can move pretty much all of our day-to-day operations under here if we have the right experts kind of driving this thing.
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And uh, it took a while uh to get the the harnessing and the tool use around these chatbots to turn it into something more, right?
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I've been calling it in one of our earlier uh shows on the Start Here series was about the AI operating system.
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So make sure to go back and listen to that.
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But that's essentially where we've uh kind of transitioned from away from AI chatbots, uh, right, to now these are agentic systems that do work, right?
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They deliver full outputs, and every major player of the big four has shipped a huge agentic product in the last 90 days.
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So let's go over some of the stats, some of the facts, some of the figures.
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Let's talk numbers, okay?
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OpenAI, 900 million weekly active users.
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All right.
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Also, this is as of March 2026, right?
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So if you're listening to this, I don't know, in November or December of 2026, you know, obviously a lot of this, the models, the numbers have changed, but I'm gonna guess uh I have a pretty good uh thumb on the pulse on these things, but I'm gonna guess my overall uh vibe and uh advice to you on each of these models will still probably hold true by the end of the year, if I'm being honest.
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Uh, but for the most part, OpenAI is the leader when it comes to the number of users.
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They have become synonymous.
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Chat GPT is AI, right?
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You ask someone that isn't using AI every single day, they'd be like, hey, have you ever used AI?
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They're gonna say, Oh, you mean ChatGPT?
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It is synonymous with AI.
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And that's because they have 900 million weekly active users.
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And the last revenue estimate we got was$25 billion of annualized revenue.
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So this is the consumer default, but what most people don't realize, they're also the enterprise default as well, just because they've done a great job at converting those individual weekly active users on the consumer side uh onto the business plans and the enterprise plans.
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Google is all over the place in maybe a good and bad way, uh, right?
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So the latest reports that we got were 750 million monthly active users, okay, different from the 900 million weekly active users that we got from OpenAI and 8 million paid enterprise seats.
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And I'd say top to bottom, they're the full stack leader.
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All right.
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That doesn't mean they're the best, right?
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But I mean, they have Gemini everywhere, right?
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In AI mode.
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So there's a good chance that you're using Gemini all the time and you don't even know it.
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Uh, I believe it's 3.1 flashlight that powers uh the AI overviews and the AI mode.
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Uh it's it's coming out everywhere, right?
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Especially if you use Gmail, if you use Google Workspace.
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Uh, we'll get into more of that later, but uh, from everywhere from uh Vertex using Gemini in their Google AI studio, it's legit everywhere.
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All right, Microsoft.
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Uh it's it's weird to say that Microsoft might be in third place when it comes to the enterprise, even though they had an unfair head start, right?
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They launched Microsoft Copilot in 2023.
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They were the first uh enterprise product for AI, uh, right.
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And according to reports, uh you're seeing about 15 million paid co-pilot seats.
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And according to uh those reports, 90% of Fortune 500 penetration.
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But they are kind of the default uh enterprise control plane, right?
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Most companies I talk to, right, when they hire us for front-end AI strategy or to train their teams on Chad GPT or something like that.
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Most of all, or mostly they're they're coming from Copilot, right?
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And and what we've seen, I think a lot more recently uh is companies that, well, they're still gonna use Copilot because the company pays for it, but they're trying to move some of their operations in there.
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And I know Microsoft is doing a lot of work to counteract that in some of their more recent moves that we're gonna talk about later.
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Uh Anthropic, last but not least, uh reportedly$20 billion in annual recorded, uh annual recurring revenue.
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So not too far behind uh OpenAI's reported$25 billion.
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So even though they're much, much smaller, uh, they are doing a good job, at least on the revenue side.
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Uh, we haven't seen a lot in terms of total users from Anthropic.
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I think it's because you know, OpenAI and Anthropic are both reportedly going uh going public in 2026 with an IPO.
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Uh, I would assume Anthropic keeps their uh their overall enterprise numbers under reps because it is very small.
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Uh and I'm just gonna go ahead and say this now, right?
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People always accuse me of being anti-anthropic.
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No, I'm not.
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I love anthropic.
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I have a you know,$200 a month anthropic max plan, right?
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There's obviously great applications for anthropic, right?
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But there's a lot of uh uh information out there that's bad and wrong, right?
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So I'm just here to set the record straight.
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I currently have also, yeah, I currently have no uh, you know, no sponsorships or advertising with any of these four, although I have uh we have advertised with Google and Microsoft on the past on this channel, uh, right?
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There's a lot of bad information floating out there that says anthropic is winning the uh you know the enterprise race from ramp and menlo.
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They're not, it's not even close yet.
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They're they're in fourth place.
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Uh, but what they've done a great job, they've built great products, fantastic models.
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And I would assume, right, they probably have the highest revenue per user because they don't have a lot of users, uh, right.
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They're they're nowhere in the you know 900 million or 750 million range that openai and Google are, but great models, great products.
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And like I said, they're probably doing the best in terms of revenue per user, which is an important metric to look at.
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So, kind of the uh for our live stream audience, you can kind of see the little graph here.
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If you're listening on the podcast, nothing overly visual on today's show, but you can always watch the video version on our website at your everydayai.com.
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And essentially, there's a lot of overlapping races, uh, because ultimately I don't think that there technically is one race because you can lose the you know the consumer mind share, uh, like Anthropic is, and you can still win the overall race, right?
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But if I had to kind of you know peg each one, what is the lane that they're uh running in?
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So open AI, I'd say they're can they're the consumer default, uh, right?
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They are synonymous with AI, they are AI, uh, right?
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Even though they didn't create it, right?
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You gotta tip your cap to uh to Google there and the uh the inventors of the Transformer.
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Uh, but they are so far ahead of everyone else, I think.
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Uh personally, obviously the the numbers tell it on the consumer side.
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The numbers uh seem to tell it also on the enterprise side.
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And when it comes to uh the models, the benchmarks, right?
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Their newest models uh there as well.
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Um, full stack multimodal, that's Google.
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Uh, I think Google is in such a great position in the long run because they are the only one multimodal by default, uh, accepts video input.
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They have probably the best source of training for the future of AI, like AGI, uh, when it comes to YouTube, uh, right.
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And uh great on the robotics model side with their Gemini robotics as well.
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So uh Google is, like I said, all over the place in a good and bad way, but I think they are primed to really excel in the long run.
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And I think they finally brought some updates to where people probably use Gemini a lot and had some bad experiences, which is in the workspace.
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And we're gonna get to that in a little bit.
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Then Microsoft.
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They are, I'm just gonna say, the enterprise control plane, uh, right, that's been historically dominated by Microsoft, right?
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Because they are the only ones.
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Well, they are the actual operating system of the computer.
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Uh, until Apple ever decides they want to do AI, which they're not in the conversation, uh, right, when you fire up your Windows PC, copilot's there, right?
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Chat GPT is not living on your desktop when you fire it up by default.
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Google Gemini isn't, uh, Anthropic Claude isn't.
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It is Microsoft Copilot.
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However, their models are powered by OpenAI and Enthropic, but that's kind of their lane.
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It is embedded workflow orchestration with the tools and the software uh that your company already uses.
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Huge on the identity uh identity and security governance side, obviously.
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Uh, and then enthropic, I'll say they are the premium intelligence layer.
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So um, I don't think in the long run they're gonna have the best models, although right now their current models, Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, are some of the best that there are.
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Uh, I don't think in the long run, uh I do think that's gonna be a Google open AI conversation, but they have done a better job than probably everyone else at just kind of the premium intelligence integration, uh, right.
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So everything from coding agents and how you can use Claude Code in different places to their recent, you know, plugins that have literally shook the stock market, uh, right.
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Skills, uh, you know, popularizing skills and MCP.
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So uh they are kind of the company that's inserting uh, you know, kind of their intelligence layer in more places in the high value financial workflows and model agnostic cloud deployments.
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So a little bit more and some of the strengths for each, right?
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OpenAI, let's get to them.
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They're the default.
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They're the, you know, no matter who you're comparing against, whether you're currently a co-pilot, you're saying co-pilot versus uh ChatGPT.
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Uh, if your company is a Google uh workspace company, you're saying, okay, are we Gemini or are we Chat GPT?
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Or maybe one of your teams really took off with Claude and you were using it early on, it's Claude versus ChatGPT, right?
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Chat GPT and OpenAI, they're not going to be out of the conversation for anything, I don't think, in 2026 at least.
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Um, today, best model GPT-5.4 uh thinking, GPT 5.4 Pro, scientific benchmark side, uh, you the they're winning.
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Everything from the traditional uh kind of you know MMLU type, right?
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The ACTs for the AIs to now the the coding, uh the agentic harnessing, the uh computer use.
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So some of these uh areas from a benchmark perspective that used to belong to anthropic, um, yeah, it's it's open AIs, right?
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I could obviously change next week, right?
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Because anytime one of the big three come out with a step-up model, a decimal model, right?
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So going from a 3-1 to a 3-2 or a 4-6 to a 4-7 or a 5.4 to a 5.5, right?
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Anytimes that happens, the the benchmark and the sentiment changes, but open AI is never going to be out of it.
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Uh, right, they've got some huge CapEx uh deals, uh, right, more than a trillion dollars between SoftBank, NVIDIA, and Amazon, uh signing huge deals all the time.
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Uh, and when it comes to getting work done, you have to talk about the GDP valve, uh, right?
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83% win tie rate.
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So uh in blind taste tests, so to speak, producing work, uh, yeah, GPT-5.4 is better or ties expert humans 83% of the time, best in the business.
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All right, Google, like I said, they're the multimodal full stack.
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All right, and they are all over the place.
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But according to Google, more than 120,000 enterprises uh are using uh their um their technology across the stack.
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Uh, more than 8 million paid Gemini's enterprise seats, and uh their year-over-year generative AI revenue is up 400%.
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So, yeah, uh it was the end of 2024 that Google just woke up and chose violence.
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So, at least the last like 15 months, I think Google has been the winner.
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Uh, right.
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And then I think in terms of you know open AI versus anthropic, they've been competing.
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But you know, obviously Google got off to a very bad start when it came to their Bard, right?
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The Bard model wasn't good.
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They came out with some marketing that kind of showed some capabilities of Google Bard that weren't exactly there, and I think that really set them back by probably more than a year.
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But what they're doing on the multimodal and creative side is absolutely bonkers.
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I mean, when you talk about VO 3.1, again, these models might have changed by the time you listen.
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Y'all, I understand that.
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But when you talk about their video models and VO, uh, their nano bananas, uh you know, image generation model, what it can do with infographics and slide generation, uh, right on the Gemini robotics side.
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I mean, their footprint is larger and wider than even Microsoft's, even though Microsoft has that huge head start of just living in the operating system.
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All right, speaking of Microsoft, like I said, they are the enterprise control plane.
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All right, so we've seen reports, more than 15 million paid uh Microsoft 365 co-pilot seats.
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And they did show a 160% year-over-year growth.
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And they did just recently launch a new offering.
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So we'll see uh what that does on the revenue side.
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It's called the M365 E7 bundle.
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It's kind of a higher tier, uh, with some more inclusions than your basic Microsoft 365 co-pilot seat, uh, as well as the co-pilot co-work, which we're gonna talk here in a little bit.
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But um, last but not least, uh, you have Anthropic.
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And I do think that they've come to dominate that premium execution layer.
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So essentially inserting their intelligence in different ways because I think that they've been developer friendly and developer focused from the beginning.
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So when it comes to large enterprises, a lot of their teams that uh maybe were helping make the decisions were maybe more comfortable uh with some of the earlier uh Opus and Sonnet models.
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Obviously, they were kind of first to the game um with clawed code, even though, yes, Microsoft uh you know, Microsoft GitHub Copilot has been around for a very long time.
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But when it came uh from a uh perspective of an agentic command line interface coding tool that came out to a desktop program, even though I think that was still Microsoft GitHub Copilot, should have could have been that tool, but for whatever reason it was anthropic.
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And that's helped them get extremely uh great traction.
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Yeah.
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So reports we've seen anywhere from 14 to 20 billion dollars on the annualized run weight, uh run rate, same thing, investing a lot on the CapEx, building their own actually, um, and the product footprint, everything from Claude Code, which is on itself a unicorn, right?
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Uh reportedly$2.5 billion in revenue just from Claude Code.
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They have the new code work, uh, sorry, co-work, uh, which we'll talk about on the Microsoft side as well, which is you know, allowing you to do your work um on your desktop.
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So it's kind of like Claude Code for non-developers.
00:19:47.920 --> 00:19:59.519
Uh, the new Claude Marketplace, the office add-ins, the plugins, uh, right, Anthropic over the past probably uh three months has been their best three-month run to date.
00:20:00.720 --> 00:20:14.319
All right, and then we have to talk about equity investments because that's where this race gets not tricky, but the answer is nuanced because some of these companies might not be competing in areas where they could.
00:20:14.480 --> 00:20:18.720
Well, because they already have their money and their equity and someone that's winning.
00:20:18.960 --> 00:20:29.200
So, as an example, as of October, when OpenAI uh converted its operating structure from a nonprofit to a PBC or a public benefits corporation.
00:20:29.359 --> 00:20:38.960
Well, Microhoff, Microsoft is the single largest shareholder of the OpenAI group's uh PBC with a 27% stake in the company.
00:20:39.039 --> 00:20:44.799
They yeah, they are the technically the largest single shareholder in the PBC.
00:20:45.680 --> 00:20:51.279
Also, Microsoft has a total investment commitment of five billion dollars in Anthropic.
00:20:51.440 --> 00:20:57.599
So Microsoft has a lot to gain, even if they are losing consumers, right?
00:20:57.759 --> 00:21:13.519
If they have uh, you know, if they're shedding copilot licenses and those people are ultimately going to ChatGPT uh or to Anthropic, well, maybe it's uh a dime out of the left hand, but a dollar in the right hand, or vice versa, right?
00:21:13.680 --> 00:21:18.640
But ultimately, uh as long as they're not losing to Google, Microsoft is winning.
00:21:18.799 --> 00:21:20.640
I think a lot of people are overlooking that.
00:21:20.799 --> 00:21:23.519
Uh, Google also big investments.
00:21:23.599 --> 00:21:30.640
Uh, so in reportedly uh about a 14 or to 15% ownership stake in anthropic.
00:21:30.799 --> 00:21:51.359
So where Microsoft has a very large uh stake in open AI, Google, uh parent company Alphabet has a pretty big slice of that anthropic pie, which from a revenue only side is growing faster uh according to reports than anyone else's revenue pie.
00:21:52.079 --> 00:21:56.240
All right, so let's get back to open AI and tell the story a little bit that way.
00:21:56.319 --> 00:21:59.759
So ChatGPT went from zero to 900 million.
00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:06.960
Billion weekly active users in just over three years, which going from truly zero to nearly a billion, right?
00:22:07.039 --> 00:22:11.440
Probably by the time most people are listening to this, it's going to be a billion weekly active users.
00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:12.880
It's never been done.
00:22:13.039 --> 00:22:18.720
It is just straight up hockey stick to the moon growth.
00:22:18.880 --> 00:22:23.519
Also, revenue finished with$2 billion in 2023.
00:22:23.680 --> 00:22:29.359
Now, very quickly, up to uh that reported$25 billion annualized revenue rate.
00:22:29.440 --> 00:22:30.799
And it's not just consumers.
00:22:30.880 --> 00:22:46.079
Yes, the overwhelming majority of those 900 million are free users using ChatGPT, but they do have 50 million consumer subscribers and 9 million different businesses that now depend and use on and use the platform.
00:22:46.400 --> 00:22:51.440
And I'd say kind of my take here, ChatGPT is the easiest to use.
00:22:51.759 --> 00:22:52.640
It is right.
00:22:52.720 --> 00:22:55.599
I kind of wish they had their codecs, their new coding platform.
00:22:55.759 --> 00:23:00.799
I kind of wish it worked inside of Chat GPT, whether you're using it on the web uh or the app.
00:23:00.960 --> 00:23:01.839
That's the thing, right?
00:23:02.000 --> 00:23:10.799
I think Anthropic has done a great job with their desktop app for Mac as an example, you know, having the chat cowork and code all under one roof.
00:23:10.960 --> 00:23:24.400
So I do think that was maybe a miss there from OpenAI, not just kind of uh integrating Codecs a little bit more tightly into Chat GPT, specifically when it comes to the desktop app, but it is still the easiest to use by far.
00:23:24.799 --> 00:23:25.440
Uh, right.
00:23:25.759 --> 00:23:33.359
Anthropic, yes, it's a little it can be a little confusing, uh, but I'd say anthropic is probably the second easiest to use.
00:23:33.599 --> 00:23:37.839
But the UI, UX, ease of use, right?
00:23:38.000 --> 00:23:44.799
If if your grandparent or parents are using AI, they're probably using Chat GPT because it is the easiest.
00:23:44.880 --> 00:23:46.720
And like I said, it's become synonymous.
00:23:46.799 --> 00:23:52.799
Uh, and the new model, I think, is uh really, really, really good, right?
00:23:52.880 --> 00:23:55.440
I did a recent show on it, so you can go check that out if you want to.
00:23:55.519 --> 00:24:00.799
But I mean, it introduced native computer use, spreadsheet modeling, and direct financial data integrations.
00:24:00.880 --> 00:24:04.240
The trade-off, well, the cost can get high, right?
00:24:04.400 --> 00:24:06.000
Especially on the enterprise side.
00:24:06.079 --> 00:24:14.400
Uh, you know, they don't publicly disclose those, but you know, we hear anything from you know$50 to$70 per enterprise seat, uh, right.
00:24:14.480 --> 00:24:19.839
So a little more than uh Microsoft's baseline uh enterprise seat licensing.
00:24:20.000 --> 00:24:21.599
Obviously, their new$99.
00:24:22.079 --> 00:24:25.440
Uh it uh OpenAI's enterprise one will come under that.
00:24:25.519 --> 00:24:32.319
Uh, but you know, the the trade-off there, and I've been saying this, OpenAI, I don't think cares about being profitable, right?
00:24:32.480 --> 00:24:37.359
They've updated their profitability projections to say they might not be profitable until 2030.
00:24:37.519 --> 00:24:44.160
So essentially, you've had you know anthropic and open AI, the two kind of quote unquote AI startups, take a very different approach.
00:24:44.240 --> 00:24:48.960
Uh, open AI has said we care about users and they're winning that game by far.
00:24:49.119 --> 00:24:53.599
Um, and I think Anthropic has cared probably more about profitability.
00:24:53.759 --> 00:25:05.279
Again, we don't know the price per user, but my strong assumption is Anthropic is crushing everyone else when it comes to revenue per user, because I don't think they have a lot of users, but I do know they have a ton of revenue.
00:25:05.519 --> 00:25:06.319
Uh, all right.
00:25:06.559 --> 00:25:11.039
So their biggest strength might also be their biggest weakness.
00:25:11.119 --> 00:25:11.519
Uh, right.
00:25:11.680 --> 00:25:19.920
Open AI kind of had their infamous code red where uh they kind of realized that they maybe they were lagging behind a little bit on the model side.
00:25:20.000 --> 00:25:25.359
Uh, so I do think over the last month or two, they've really uh corrected course on that.
00:25:25.519 --> 00:25:30.640
But yeah, a lot of people argue that maybe OpenAI um is a little too distracted, right?
00:25:30.799 --> 00:25:32.720
So they have their video product.
00:25:32.880 --> 00:25:41.200
Uh, you know, it's it seems like they're trying to compete maybe with Google and Microsoft and Apple all at the same time.
00:25:41.359 --> 00:25:42.319
Could they do it?
00:25:42.480 --> 00:25:43.359
Maybe, right?
00:25:43.440 --> 00:25:47.200
Whereas Anthropic, its closest competitor, is not doing any of that.
00:25:47.279 --> 00:25:50.480
They're not doing images like OpenAI is, they're not doing video, right?
00:25:50.559 --> 00:25:57.599
Uh, OpenAI reportedly going into consumer hardware with devices, maybe, you know, uh early 2027.
00:25:58.079 --> 00:26:11.039
Uh, but the consumer focus maybe uh has slowed down some of their model progress, some of their research because they're having to devote a lot of their compute to things like the Sora app, right?
00:26:11.279 --> 00:26:12.480
Uh, things like that.
00:26:12.720 --> 00:26:17.279
But um, they are spending reportedly more than anyone else.
00:26:17.440 --> 00:26:21.599
Uh, but at least they are winning on the overall number scheme.
00:26:21.839 --> 00:26:27.839
All right, anthropic, I think is the best for high stakes, high value technical work.
00:26:28.079 --> 00:26:38.559
Emphasis on technical, because I do think if you're looking at overall uh general work productivity, I still do think that open AI and Google are probably the best for that.
00:26:38.640 --> 00:26:44.319
But Claude is a leader on complex reasoning, long documents, and economically uh valuable knowledge tasks.
00:26:44.400 --> 00:26:52.480
And they do say that eight of the Fortune 10 are Claude customers, and there's 500 plus companies that are spending over uh a million dollars annually.
00:26:52.640 --> 00:26:56.559
So uh the product surface is very narrow.
00:26:56.640 --> 00:27:15.519
Uh, anthropic, you can make the argument, is a company that is extremely uh focused on doing one thing very, very well, and that's having very capable models um that have a product market fit in usually niche areas, but now they are starting to broaden out.
00:27:15.599 --> 00:27:30.559
I think toward the end of 2025, um again, anthropic has shocked me because they were really just geared toward the software development, uh, the the devs, uh, right, highly technical financial tasks, and they have really branched out.
00:27:30.640 --> 00:27:39.119
I think Claude Cowork um, you know, was one of those things, uh, but really pushing skills, uh pushing the plugins.
00:27:39.440 --> 00:27:52.400
Uh, I do think that they're broadening out from maybe, you know, the the the technical uh model of choice to now they're probably uh you know starting to win consumers over uh as they've branched out a little bit.
00:27:52.640 --> 00:27:54.480
And I think Claude Code is one of the reasons why.
00:27:54.640 --> 00:27:56.160
Claude Code really good.
00:27:56.319 --> 00:28:03.839
Um personally, um, I do like codex uh better, uh, but Claude Code has been a massive hit.
00:28:04.000 --> 00:28:10.720
You could make the argument it could be a top five uh, you know, AI product of all time.
00:28:10.880 --> 00:28:18.640
I mean, just Claude Code in you know less than six months uh came into$2.5 billion in annual recurring revenue.
00:28:18.799 --> 00:28:27.119
Um, and that's uh right now 4% of all GitHub commits, which is a pretty big amount for a product that is this new.
00:28:27.279 --> 00:28:41.680
Also, they just launched the their Claude Marketplace uh with six different partners where you can kind of uh uh companies using that can commit their spend uh to some of their partners, um, clawed partners in their um kind of plug-in ecosystem.
00:28:42.240 --> 00:28:43.599
All right, Microsoft.
00:28:43.839 --> 00:28:51.440
Microsoft, I'd hate to say it, they are the safe uh kind of you could say old school AI, right?
00:28:51.519 --> 00:28:53.839
They're the safe AI, the safe bet.
00:28:54.000 --> 00:29:04.960
And and one of the reasons is well, it's the one that's approved by most enterprises out of the box because it is literally built into the ecosystem, it is built into the operating system.
00:29:05.200 --> 00:29:10.079
Um, so it's already embedded uh according to reports.
00:29:10.160 --> 00:29:16.480
Uh, more than 90% of Fortune 500 companies are using Microsoft 365 co-pilot uh daily.
00:29:16.559 --> 00:29:18.319
Uh, a big new shift.
00:29:18.480 --> 00:29:24.960
Well, uh, Microsoft announced co-pilot cowork powered by Anthropics Cowork Technology.
00:29:25.119 --> 00:29:34.319
And uh it is gonna be probably a slow rollout over the next few quarters until the uh the the wider business world has their hands on it.
00:29:34.400 --> 00:29:40.559
But this does bring that multi-step task, uh, you know, where essentially it's just doing your work, right?
00:29:40.720 --> 00:29:46.880
Uh, if you've used Claude Cowork, um, it has access to all your files on your computer.
00:29:46.960 --> 00:29:53.680
Uh, it can produce documents, it can use a terminal, it can power a power and control a browser, right?
00:29:53.759 --> 00:29:57.200
So it is very much like an intern or a junior researcher.
00:29:57.279 --> 00:30:03.039
It can access all your files, create files, use a computer, use a terminal, uh, use control a browser, right?
00:30:03.119 --> 00:30:04.559
All these same things that a human can.
00:30:04.640 --> 00:30:13.920
And so I do think that this co-work um kind of movement now that uh Microsoft uh is is starting to productize as well, is one worth paying attention to.
00:30:14.480 --> 00:30:14.880
All right.
00:30:15.119 --> 00:30:19.200
Microsoft, their biggest advantage is one that no one else can really replicate.
00:30:19.279 --> 00:30:21.200
Uh, that's the AI by default, right?
00:30:21.279 --> 00:30:29.119
Like I said, even if people maybe don't want it, they're gonna see co-pilot inside of Word, Excel, Teams, and Outlook.
00:30:29.200 --> 00:30:31.759
Although I do think it's gotten much, much better.
00:30:31.920 --> 00:30:43.599
I think Microsoft uh probably had some of the same early problems as Google when you know they were slapping their copilot in all of their uh you know, all of their office products and it wouldn't always work very well.
00:30:43.759 --> 00:30:47.920
Uh, I think they've gotten that tied up in the last uh probably six months.
00:30:48.079 --> 00:30:54.400
And now that they have kind of the uh the agentic options inside of their office products, even more so.
00:30:54.559 --> 00:31:07.440
And we'll see what happens with this new$99 uh per seat per uh for the E7 Frontier suite that kind of bundles uh AI, security, and governance, and as well as uh co-pilot co-work.
00:31:07.599 --> 00:31:13.680
But the biggest setback for Microsoft it is the learning permissions and governance curve.
00:31:13.759 --> 00:31:15.519
It is way higher than the other three.
00:31:15.599 --> 00:31:17.519
That's because, well, it's there by default.
00:31:17.680 --> 00:31:28.319
Um, so it is it's kind of like a running joke that Microsoft Copilot could be the best AI out there if anyone could figure out how to use it.
00:31:28.480 --> 00:31:30.720
I do know that that's something Microsoft is tackling.
00:31:30.960 --> 00:31:48.400
We've seen reports that their CEO, Sadia Nandella, is essentially, you know, putting in some work as a product manager on Copilot, which is very rare for the CEO of a multi-trillion dollar uh market cap company to start working on product, but that's what we've seen.
00:31:48.559 --> 00:31:56.559
So I am actually uh rather bullish long term um on Microsoft Copilot for that very reason, right?
00:31:56.640 --> 00:32:03.119
When you have the CEO uh rolling up their sleeves to say, hey, this isn't working, we've got to change this.
00:32:03.279 --> 00:32:05.039
Um, I think that's the way to go.
00:32:05.200 --> 00:32:10.240
All right, and then last but not least, Google, the most powerful multimodal AI ecosystem on earth.
00:32:10.319 --> 00:32:19.200
So, like we said, 750 million monthly Gemini users, uh, with 8 million of those reportedly paid seats and huge year-over-year growth.
00:32:19.359 --> 00:32:23.599
And they are the only major provider with native video input, which is big.
00:32:23.759 --> 00:32:30.240
I still people still aren't using this, and it's such a cheat code, uh, alongside text, image, and audio handling.
00:32:30.319 --> 00:32:32.559
And there's deep integration literally everywhere.
00:32:32.720 --> 00:32:37.039
So across search, Android, Chrome, YouTube, Drive, Docs, sheet, right?
00:32:37.200 --> 00:32:43.839
So if you are a uh Gemini or sorry, a Google workspace organization, well, it's gotten a lot better.
00:32:44.000 --> 00:32:53.519
Um again, early, you know, mid-2024 when you started to see uh you know Gemini roll out in beta across workspace, it wasn't good.
00:32:53.680 --> 00:32:57.119
There's actually some instances where it was downright bad, right?
00:32:57.279 --> 00:33:01.759
I remember doing a couple videos on our YouTube channel, just feeling like, yo, this doesn't work.
00:33:01.839 --> 00:33:07.920
Now it's the best, uh, right of uh an update they actually had this week, so in March 2026, right?
00:33:08.000 --> 00:33:11.440
Uh, like certain benchmarks, like you know, spreadsheet editing.
00:33:11.599 --> 00:33:12.640
Now they're the best.
00:33:12.720 --> 00:33:14.640
Um, but it's all it is all over the place.
00:33:14.799 --> 00:33:16.640
So again, kind of a good and bad thing.
00:33:16.720 --> 00:33:25.119
But you have your Gemini, there's a different version of Gemini for business and enterprise, notebook LM, Gemini and Vertex, AI Studio, it's everywhere.
00:33:25.440 --> 00:33:29.519
But one of the newer things is the new workspace overhaul.
00:33:29.680 --> 00:33:37.519
So this fills uh, you know, it puts Gemini in everywhere, in uh Gmail, in Drive, in docs, uh, right.
00:33:37.599 --> 00:33:46.079
So you can essentially talk to Gemini now anywhere inside Google Workspace, whereas before it wasn't quite as easy.
00:33:46.160 --> 00:33:51.279
So now it can just, you know, synthesize and understand your files, emails from anywhere, right?
00:33:51.359 --> 00:33:59.440
So you can essentially leverage and tap into uh your entire Google Workspace ecosystem, no matter where you are within workspace.
00:33:59.519 --> 00:34:05.279
And now Google Drive is also being kind of repositioned uh as like a rag database, right?
00:34:05.359 --> 00:34:11.840
It's an active, citable AI knowledge base across your entire history inside Google Workspace.
00:34:12.639 --> 00:34:19.360
Now, shifting away a little bit here, I think what we have to pay attention to is the agent coding war.
00:34:19.760 --> 00:34:24.079
I think that is maybe where this thing starts to get decided.
00:34:24.159 --> 00:34:32.239
Uh, because coding is the first use case where AI created a concretely measurable ROI at enterprise scale.
00:34:32.400 --> 00:34:39.679
And gains in coding and computer use, I think do spill over into non-technical applications in large language models.
00:34:39.840 --> 00:34:49.039
Because I mean, we've heard from both anthropic, uh, we've heard now from OpenAI as well that uh their models are writing their future models, right?
00:34:49.119 --> 00:34:50.960
Which is also kind of scary, right?
00:34:51.119 --> 00:34:55.360
We have this self-learning and recursive AI that's writing itself, right?
00:34:55.440 --> 00:35:07.360
But once that happens, that means that then those, yeah, I know this sounds weird, but then those models can write hundreds or thousands of specialized models that are then just better at all these other tasks, maybe on the non-technical side.
00:35:07.519 --> 00:35:20.559
So you do have to pay attention to the agent race um and the computer use race, uh, because those are things that are ultimately going to impact the non-technical everyday business work that most knowledge workers are doing.
00:35:20.719 --> 00:35:28.400
Uh, I'd say right now, Cloud Code is leading in adoption and it's trending, but Codex, I think, is probably the hottest on the market.
00:35:28.559 --> 00:35:35.440
Uh, along with the new GPT-5.4 models inside Codex, uh, I do think it's yes, it's way slower.
00:35:35.679 --> 00:35:42.480
But my personal opinion of burning billions of tokens in Codex and in Cloud Code, I'm maxed out on all those.
00:35:42.639 --> 00:35:50.480
Uh, I I am way more bullish, and um uh I do think that it has the higher uh bar right now, Codex does.
00:35:50.559 --> 00:35:57.440
And then obviously you have Microsoft GitHub Copilot that is kind of like one of the OGs when it comes to you know AI coding assistance.
00:35:57.519 --> 00:36:01.199
And Google, again, both great and confusing.
00:36:01.360 --> 00:36:03.360
Google's kind of all over the place here.
00:36:03.519 --> 00:36:10.719
They have everything from Firebase to jewels to code assist uh to the Gemini CLI to anti-gravity.
00:36:11.119 --> 00:36:11.679
Uh, right.
00:36:11.840 --> 00:36:15.760
So Gemini, obviously on the coding side, has a lot of offering.
00:36:15.840 --> 00:36:21.679
But I do think the coding winner could set the template for every agentic category that follows.
00:36:21.920 --> 00:36:24.559
And also the infrastructure side, right?
00:36:24.639 --> 00:36:28.000
You have to see where these companies are investing uh on CapEx.
00:36:28.159 --> 00:36:37.119
So OpenAI, uh reportedly, yeah,$110 billion uh funding round targeting$600 billion in total compute spend through 2030.
00:36:37.199 --> 00:36:46.880
Yeah, they're saying we're spending a ton of money on compute, and that's one of the reasons they're saying they're not going to be profitable, uh, you know, or not as profitable as quickly as maybe some of their other competitors.
00:36:47.039 --> 00:36:57.280
Uh, Google uh spending up to$185 billion in CapEx, Microsoft$37 billion uh in quarter for 2025 alone.
00:36:57.519 --> 00:37:05.920
Anthropic has launched a massive 50$50 billion investment initiative to own and construct their own AI data centers in the US.
00:37:06.079 --> 00:37:08.960
So uh that's technically kind of separate, right?
00:37:09.039 --> 00:37:15.280
But the faster that these companies can get up these CapEx uh you know AI data centers, right?
00:37:15.440 --> 00:37:21.199
That's gonna help them get ahead in in the kind of the day-to-day in the week-to-week AI race.
00:37:21.679 --> 00:37:22.320
All right.
00:37:22.559 --> 00:37:25.519
So as we wrap here, how do you navigate this?
00:37:25.679 --> 00:37:29.760
All right, I gave you a very quick, I know it's 37 minutes in here.
00:37:29.920 --> 00:37:37.920
I gave you a very quick recap of where we've been over the last three years and the pros and the cons of where uh these big four companies are.
00:37:38.000 --> 00:37:39.519
And yeah, it's the big four companies.
00:37:39.679 --> 00:37:42.000
Maybe Meta will re-enter the discussion.
00:37:42.239 --> 00:37:46.239
Perplexity is not really its own uh model maker, right?
00:37:46.320 --> 00:37:50.320
Because I'm sure people are gonna be like, oh, what about you know, Amazon, AWS, right?
00:37:50.480 --> 00:37:52.639
Eh, they're second tier right now.
00:37:52.719 --> 00:37:53.679
That could change, right?
00:37:53.760 --> 00:38:01.599
But right now, it is essentially the three uh frontier AI providers and Microsoft that leverages both of them and Microsoft making their own models.
00:38:01.679 --> 00:38:04.960
But for the most part, stop buying one vendor for it for everything.
00:38:05.119 --> 00:38:08.800
Uh, you know, leadership changes by workload and by the quarter.
00:38:09.039 --> 00:38:16.800
Even if you have a great workflow right now with one of the big four, you need to be working on your 1B plan because I can't say this enough.
00:38:17.039 --> 00:38:23.039
Oftentimes, these companies are going to change something in their big model, and they might not even announce it.
00:38:23.119 --> 00:38:30.000
It might not even be a decimal point change, it just might be an under-the-hood change, and things could go off the rails for your company.
00:38:30.159 --> 00:38:38.639
You always need to be building modularly, you need to redesign processes for agents first that take action, not just chatbots waiting to be asked.
00:38:38.719 --> 00:38:43.760
So that's a big uh kind of change management uh piece for enterprise leaders out there.
00:38:43.840 --> 00:38:46.400
And you need to match the platform to the problem, right?
00:38:46.559 --> 00:38:53.840
So, as an example, maybe right now it's open AI for breadth, cloud for depth, Google for scale, Microsoft for governance, whatever it is.
00:38:54.000 --> 00:39:03.679
There's no problem in having you know two different, although I do think it is best to move as many of your day-to-day knowledge work processes into an AI operating system.
00:39:03.920 --> 00:39:11.840
But I think for specialized tasks and for certain departments, I think it's okay to have a secondary uh, you know, tool or a secondary company.
00:39:12.079 --> 00:39:13.440
So let's end it here.
00:39:13.679 --> 00:39:15.440
Who's gonna win the AI race?
00:39:15.679 --> 00:39:16.079
All right.
00:39:16.239 --> 00:39:20.000
I'm gonna break it down because, like I said, there is no one race, it's many different races.
00:39:20.079 --> 00:39:26.400
But I think there's a couple, there's three big races I think that are being run: consumer, enterprise, and models.
00:39:26.719 --> 00:39:28.639
Consumer, open AI.
00:39:28.800 --> 00:39:30.239
No one else is gonna touch them.
00:39:30.400 --> 00:39:32.400
Google is starting to close the gap.
00:39:32.719 --> 00:39:38.159
Open AI is so far ahead, uh, I don't see them losing that lead anytime soon.
00:39:38.400 --> 00:39:45.599
Enterprise, I do think, as strange as this sounds, this has always been Microsoft's uh battle to lose.
00:39:45.760 --> 00:39:50.320
And I think that from 2023 to 2025, they were losing.
00:39:50.480 --> 00:39:53.920
Uh, so I think right now it's Microsoft versus OpenAI.
00:39:54.079 --> 00:39:55.519
I do think Google is trending.
00:39:55.679 --> 00:40:03.519
Google has a fantastic uh Gemini for business and Gemini for enterprise product, but I don't think anyone knows about it, right?
00:40:03.679 --> 00:40:06.639
People think it's just the Gemini.google.com.
00:40:06.719 --> 00:40:08.400
No, that's the consumer version.
00:40:08.559 --> 00:40:12.559
I think Google uh could start to dominate in that category.
00:40:12.719 --> 00:40:16.719
Um, you know, at least when you talk about non-technical front-end users, right?
00:40:16.880 --> 00:40:20.159
Obviously, they have everything on the vertex side, the AI studio.
00:40:20.239 --> 00:40:22.960
Uh, but yeah, anthropic, not in the picture.
00:40:23.119 --> 00:40:23.599
Sorry.
00:40:23.679 --> 00:40:29.440
Uh they're they're not an enterprise uh player when it comes to enterprise total enterprise users.
00:40:29.760 --> 00:40:30.159
All right.
00:40:30.239 --> 00:40:33.760
And then model capabilities, that's a toss-up, right?
00:40:34.079 --> 00:40:44.480
Um, obviously, anthropics models, top tier, top of the class, uh, open AIs, new releases, uh, you know, in certain areas, great benchmarks as well.
00:40:44.559 --> 00:40:45.599
Uh, and then Google.
00:40:45.679 --> 00:40:57.519
I think I've said it before, Google at any time, because of the mass uh training data that they have, I think anytime they can come out with a new Gemini 3.2, Gemini 3.3, and be the best model in the world.
00:40:57.679 --> 00:41:07.280
So I don't think, although we always are watching that race, the model race, I think it's the least important of all three because it's becoming more and more important.
00:41:07.519 --> 00:41:10.159
The harnessing, uh, the tool, uh, the tool use.
00:41:10.239 --> 00:41:24.719
And like I said, it's not about who has the best model, it's about who helps you bring your data and all of your uh day-to-day workflows agentically into the into the picture.
00:41:24.800 --> 00:41:26.320
That's what it's ultimately about.
00:41:26.480 --> 00:41:31.199
All right, I hope this one was helpful as we went over the state of the AI race.
00:41:31.280 --> 00:41:34.000
Uh, again, this is part of our Start Here series.
00:41:34.159 --> 00:41:46.159
So whether you are brand new to AI or you just want to double down on your knowledge, please go to startheseries.com and go sign up uh and go listen to the entire series there.
00:41:46.320 --> 00:41:47.360
So thank you for tuning in.
00:41:47.519 --> 00:41:50.639
Hope to see you back tomorrow and every day for more everyday AI.
00:41:50.719 --> 00:41:51.360
Thanks, y'all.
00:00:02.720 --> 00:00:06.240
What company will win the AI race in 2026?
00:00:07.200 --> 00:00:18.320
Yeah, it's a lot of fun for AI geeks like you and me to argue this and to follow the benchmarks and literally every single week or every other week argue about the new next best model.
00:00:18.800 --> 00:00:25.600
But the answer, obviously, to that question is much more nuanced than a single company.
00:00:26.079 --> 00:00:33.600
And the answers obviously hold extreme value for today's business owners and decision makers.
00:00:33.759 --> 00:00:45.280
That's because you've probably already, and if not, you will soon look at the big four in the face and say, hey, which company should our organization be using when it comes to AI?
00:00:45.439 --> 00:00:49.119
Microsoft, Anthropic Google or OpenAI.
00:00:49.280 --> 00:00:55.759
So on today's show, we're going to be giving you some of the answers, but let me just get straight to the big picture here.
00:00:56.079 --> 00:01:07.359
Three years ago, one company controlled AI in OpenAI, but that era is over because now you have Microsoft, Anthropic Google, and OpenAI all competing for the same thing.
00:01:07.519 --> 00:01:10.000
Two things mainly, the mind share, right?
00:01:10.079 --> 00:01:16.239
That's the uh the total number of consumers on the platform and then the enterprise dollars, right?
00:01:16.319 --> 00:01:22.000
How quickly uh can you get those consumers over to start using it on the business side?
00:01:22.159 --> 00:01:41.439
But I think the 2026 winner of the AI race will actually come down to the workflow and how easy and how accurate it is to bring in in an agentic manner your company's data and for that system to deliver enterprise ready outputs.
00:01:41.519 --> 00:01:44.000
And it's not necessarily gonna be the best model.
00:01:44.159 --> 00:01:47.439
Whoever makes it is gonna be the one that wins the AI race.
00:01:47.680 --> 00:02:01.439
So on today's show, we're gonna go over what the big four are actually competing for in 2026, why the chatbot era ended and what comes next, where today's large language models from each company excel and where they struggle.
00:02:01.599 --> 00:02:13.759
And last but not least, I am gonna give you my kind of hot take, but uh, you know, educated uh opinion, we'll say that, on who is going to win what AI race from the big four companies.
00:02:14.000 --> 00:02:15.759
All right, I hope you're excited.
00:02:15.919 --> 00:02:16.800
Well, I am.
00:02:16.960 --> 00:02:21.439
So if you're new here, welcome to Everyday AI in our Start Here series.
00:02:21.599 --> 00:02:27.840
This is the essential podcast series to both learn the AI basics and to double down on your knowledge.
00:02:28.000 --> 00:02:36.159
So whether you are the key decision maker in your company or you're brand new getting into AI, well, the Start Here series is for you.
00:02:36.319 --> 00:02:40.000
So if you haven't already, please go to StartHearseries.com.
00:02:40.080 --> 00:02:44.319
That is going to give you free access to our inner circle community.
00:02:44.400 --> 00:02:52.719
And in there, in the Start Here Series space, you can go and listen to and read the entire Start Here series.
00:02:52.800 --> 00:02:54.800
I believe we're already on volume 12.
00:02:54.960 --> 00:02:59.520
All right, and if you miss our last episode, and yes, it does help to listen to them in order.
00:02:59.680 --> 00:03:00.960
They're not super long, right?
00:03:01.039 --> 00:03:03.199
Most of them are between 25 and 35 minutes.
00:03:03.280 --> 00:03:05.360
And if you listen on 2x, they're even faster.
00:03:05.520 --> 00:03:05.840
All right.
00:03:05.919 --> 00:03:13.360
But in our last episode, uh, we covered measuring AI ROI, why you're doing it wrong, and the seven steps to fix it.
00:03:13.439 --> 00:03:15.759
My gosh, listen to that episode, put it into practice.
00:03:16.000 --> 00:03:23.680
But today on our Start Here series volume 12, we're going over the state of the AI race, who's gonna win?
00:03:24.159 --> 00:03:27.520
So let's get into it and talk about what's changed.
00:03:27.840 --> 00:03:33.759
Uh, and well, to put it simply, the chatbot era is very gone.
00:03:33.919 --> 00:03:35.360
It's done, right?
00:03:35.520 --> 00:03:36.319
Bless up.
00:03:36.639 --> 00:03:46.479
Um, I'd say even toward the middle of 2025, a lot of enterprise decision makers were still looking at AI like a chatbot.
00:03:46.639 --> 00:03:48.000
It's not like that anymore.
00:03:48.159 --> 00:04:05.759
In my opinion, I think GPT-5.4 uh thinking from OpenAI is kind of the first uh daily driver model that you can look at across the entire business spectrum and be like, yes, we now have probably, right, depending on how educated you are, right?
00:04:05.919 --> 00:04:10.800
Um, in terms of uh large language models and knowing how they work, right?
00:04:10.960 --> 00:04:34.480
And yes, there's other great models, Gemini 3.1 Pro, uh Claude Opus 4.6, but I think we're probably now finally in March 2026, at the time where you can have a single model that is generally intelligent enough and transparent enough to be like, okay, we can move pretty much all of our day-to-day operations under here if we have the right experts kind of driving this thing.
00:04:34.639 --> 00:04:42.319
And uh, it took a while uh to get the the harnessing and the tool use around these chatbots to turn it into something more, right?
00:04:42.399 --> 00:04:49.040
I've been calling it in one of our earlier uh shows on the Start Here series was about the AI operating system.
00:04:49.120 --> 00:04:51.040
So make sure to go back and listen to that.
00:04:51.120 --> 00:05:02.079
But that's essentially where we've uh kind of transitioned from away from AI chatbots, uh, right, to now these are agentic systems that do work, right?
00:05:02.160 --> 00:05:11.040
They deliver full outputs, and every major player of the big four has shipped a huge agentic product in the last 90 days.
00:05:12.000 --> 00:05:16.480
So let's go over some of the stats, some of the facts, some of the figures.
00:05:16.720 --> 00:05:18.160
Let's talk numbers, okay?
00:05:18.399 --> 00:05:21.920
OpenAI, 900 million weekly active users.
00:05:22.000 --> 00:05:22.399
All right.
00:05:22.560 --> 00:05:26.160
Also, this is as of March 2026, right?
00:05:26.240 --> 00:05:50.160
So if you're listening to this, I don't know, in November or December of 2026, you know, obviously a lot of this, the models, the numbers have changed, but I'm gonna guess uh I have a pretty good uh thumb on the pulse on these things, but I'm gonna guess my overall uh vibe and uh advice to you on each of these models will still probably hold true by the end of the year, if I'm being honest.
00:05:50.319 --> 00:05:54.720
Uh, but for the most part, OpenAI is the leader when it comes to the number of users.
00:05:54.879 --> 00:05:56.319
They have become synonymous.
00:05:56.480 --> 00:05:58.800
Chat GPT is AI, right?
00:05:59.040 --> 00:06:03.759
You ask someone that isn't using AI every single day, they'd be like, hey, have you ever used AI?
00:06:03.839 --> 00:06:06.000
They're gonna say, Oh, you mean ChatGPT?
00:06:06.160 --> 00:06:07.759
It is synonymous with AI.
00:06:07.920 --> 00:06:11.920
And that's because they have 900 million weekly active users.
00:06:12.000 --> 00:06:16.959
And the last revenue estimate we got was$25 billion of annualized revenue.
00:06:17.120 --> 00:06:34.240
So this is the consumer default, but what most people don't realize, they're also the enterprise default as well, just because they've done a great job at converting those individual weekly active users on the consumer side uh onto the business plans and the enterprise plans.
00:06:34.639 --> 00:06:40.720
Google is all over the place in maybe a good and bad way, uh, right?
00:06:40.879 --> 00:06:55.839
So the latest reports that we got were 750 million monthly active users, okay, different from the 900 million weekly active users that we got from OpenAI and 8 million paid enterprise seats.
00:06:56.000 --> 00:06:58.720
And I'd say top to bottom, they're the full stack leader.
00:06:58.800 --> 00:06:59.199
All right.
00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:01.279
That doesn't mean they're the best, right?
00:07:01.439 --> 00:07:05.920
But I mean, they have Gemini everywhere, right?
00:07:06.160 --> 00:07:07.120
In AI mode.
00:07:07.199 --> 00:07:12.240
So there's a good chance that you're using Gemini all the time and you don't even know it.
00:07:12.319 --> 00:07:18.000
Uh, I believe it's 3.1 flashlight that powers uh the AI overviews and the AI mode.
00:07:18.079 --> 00:07:20.000
Uh it's it's coming out everywhere, right?
00:07:20.160 --> 00:07:23.120
Especially if you use Gmail, if you use Google Workspace.
00:07:23.199 --> 00:07:31.680
Uh, we'll get into more of that later, but uh, from everywhere from uh Vertex using Gemini in their Google AI studio, it's legit everywhere.
00:07:31.920 --> 00:07:33.600
All right, Microsoft.
00:07:34.079 --> 00:07:43.120
Uh it's it's weird to say that Microsoft might be in third place when it comes to the enterprise, even though they had an unfair head start, right?
00:07:43.199 --> 00:07:46.240
They launched Microsoft Copilot in 2023.
00:07:46.399 --> 00:07:52.639
They were the first uh enterprise product for AI, uh, right.
00:07:52.720 --> 00:07:58.160
And according to reports, uh you're seeing about 15 million paid co-pilot seats.
00:07:58.319 --> 00:08:03.360
And according to uh those reports, 90% of Fortune 500 penetration.
00:08:03.600 --> 00:08:08.079
But they are kind of the default uh enterprise control plane, right?
00:08:08.240 --> 00:08:16.160
Most companies I talk to, right, when they hire us for front-end AI strategy or to train their teams on Chad GPT or something like that.
00:08:16.399 --> 00:08:20.000
Most of all, or mostly they're they're coming from Copilot, right?
00:08:20.079 --> 00:08:30.319
And and what we've seen, I think a lot more recently uh is companies that, well, they're still gonna use Copilot because the company pays for it, but they're trying to move some of their operations in there.
00:08:30.399 --> 00:08:36.320
And I know Microsoft is doing a lot of work to counteract that in some of their more recent moves that we're gonna talk about later.
00:08:36.480 --> 00:08:44.399
Uh Anthropic, last but not least, uh reportedly$20 billion in annual recorded, uh annual recurring revenue.
00:08:44.559 --> 00:08:49.120
So not too far behind uh OpenAI's reported$25 billion.
00:08:49.360 --> 00:08:56.399
So even though they're much, much smaller, uh, they are doing a good job, at least on the revenue side.
00:08:56.480 --> 00:09:00.559
Uh, we haven't seen a lot in terms of total users from Anthropic.
00:09:00.639 --> 00:09:08.559
I think it's because you know, OpenAI and Anthropic are both reportedly going uh going public in 2026 with an IPO.
00:09:08.639 --> 00:09:16.000
Uh, I would assume Anthropic keeps their uh their overall enterprise numbers under reps because it is very small.
00:09:16.080 --> 00:09:18.080
Uh and I'm just gonna go ahead and say this now, right?
00:09:18.240 --> 00:09:20.240
People always accuse me of being anti-anthropic.
00:09:20.320 --> 00:09:20.799
No, I'm not.
00:09:20.879 --> 00:09:21.600
I love anthropic.
00:09:21.759 --> 00:09:26.000
I have a you know,$200 a month anthropic max plan, right?
00:09:26.080 --> 00:09:29.360
There's obviously great applications for anthropic, right?
00:09:29.440 --> 00:09:33.840
But there's a lot of uh uh information out there that's bad and wrong, right?
00:09:33.919 --> 00:09:35.519
So I'm just here to set the record straight.
00:09:35.600 --> 00:09:46.879
I currently have also, yeah, I currently have no uh, you know, no sponsorships or advertising with any of these four, although I have uh we have advertised with Google and Microsoft on the past on this channel, uh, right?
00:09:47.039 --> 00:09:55.039
There's a lot of bad information floating out there that says anthropic is winning the uh you know the enterprise race from ramp and menlo.
00:09:55.360 --> 00:09:56.799
They're not, it's not even close yet.
00:09:56.879 --> 00:09:58.159
They're they're in fourth place.
00:09:58.320 --> 00:10:02.960
Uh, but what they've done a great job, they've built great products, fantastic models.
00:10:03.039 --> 00:10:10.320
And I would assume, right, they probably have the highest revenue per user because they don't have a lot of users, uh, right.
00:10:10.399 --> 00:10:19.039
They're they're nowhere in the you know 900 million or 750 million range that openai and Google are, but great models, great products.
00:10:19.120 --> 00:10:24.399
And like I said, they're probably doing the best in terms of revenue per user, which is an important metric to look at.
00:10:24.879 --> 00:10:29.919
So, kind of the uh for our live stream audience, you can kind of see the little graph here.
00:10:30.080 --> 00:10:37.840
If you're listening on the podcast, nothing overly visual on today's show, but you can always watch the video version on our website at your everydayai.com.
00:10:38.000 --> 00:10:58.720
And essentially, there's a lot of overlapping races, uh, because ultimately I don't think that there technically is one race because you can lose the you know the consumer mind share, uh, like Anthropic is, and you can still win the overall race, right?
00:10:59.039 --> 00:11:04.320
But if I had to kind of you know peg each one, what is the lane that they're uh running in?
00:11:04.480 --> 00:11:08.480
So open AI, I'd say they're can they're the consumer default, uh, right?
00:11:08.559 --> 00:11:12.559
They are synonymous with AI, they are AI, uh, right?
00:11:12.720 --> 00:11:14.320
Even though they didn't create it, right?
00:11:14.399 --> 00:11:19.519
You gotta tip your cap to uh to Google there and the uh the inventors of the Transformer.
00:11:19.679 --> 00:11:22.559
Uh, but they are so far ahead of everyone else, I think.
00:11:22.639 --> 00:11:26.399
Uh personally, obviously the the numbers tell it on the consumer side.
00:11:26.639 --> 00:11:29.840
The numbers uh seem to tell it also on the enterprise side.
00:11:30.000 --> 00:11:33.360
And when it comes to uh the models, the benchmarks, right?
00:11:33.440 --> 00:11:35.679
Their newest models uh there as well.
00:11:35.840 --> 00:11:39.039
Um, full stack multimodal, that's Google.
00:11:39.120 --> 00:11:47.679
Uh, I think Google is in such a great position in the long run because they are the only one multimodal by default, uh, accepts video input.
00:11:47.840 --> 00:11:56.480
They have probably the best source of training for the future of AI, like AGI, uh, when it comes to YouTube, uh, right.
00:11:56.559 --> 00:12:00.639
And uh great on the robotics model side with their Gemini robotics as well.
00:12:00.799 --> 00:12:08.879
So uh Google is, like I said, all over the place in a good and bad way, but I think they are primed to really excel in the long run.
00:12:09.039 --> 00:12:16.960
And I think they finally brought some updates to where people probably use Gemini a lot and had some bad experiences, which is in the workspace.
00:12:17.039 --> 00:12:18.559
And we're gonna get to that in a little bit.
00:12:18.720 --> 00:12:19.679
Then Microsoft.
00:12:19.840 --> 00:12:27.519
They are, I'm just gonna say, the enterprise control plane, uh, right, that's been historically dominated by Microsoft, right?
00:12:27.600 --> 00:12:28.799
Because they are the only ones.
00:12:28.960 --> 00:12:33.200
Well, they are the actual operating system of the computer.
00:12:33.279 --> 00:12:44.960
Uh, until Apple ever decides they want to do AI, which they're not in the conversation, uh, right, when you fire up your Windows PC, copilot's there, right?
00:12:46.000 --> 00:12:50.000
Chat GPT is not living on your desktop when you fire it up by default.
00:12:50.159 --> 00:12:53.120
Google Gemini isn't, uh, Anthropic Claude isn't.
00:12:53.200 --> 00:12:55.039
It is Microsoft Copilot.
00:12:55.200 --> 00:13:01.120
However, their models are powered by OpenAI and Enthropic, but that's kind of their lane.
00:13:01.200 --> 00:13:07.919
It is embedded workflow orchestration with the tools and the software uh that your company already uses.
00:13:08.159 --> 00:13:12.240
Huge on the identity uh identity and security governance side, obviously.
00:13:12.320 --> 00:13:16.559
Uh, and then enthropic, I'll say they are the premium intelligence layer.
00:13:17.039 --> 00:13:27.759
So um, I don't think in the long run they're gonna have the best models, although right now their current models, Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, are some of the best that there are.
00:13:27.840 --> 00:13:40.639
Uh, I don't think in the long run, uh I do think that's gonna be a Google open AI conversation, but they have done a better job than probably everyone else at just kind of the premium intelligence integration, uh, right.
00:13:40.720 --> 00:13:50.559
So everything from coding agents and how you can use Claude Code in different places to their recent, you know, plugins that have literally shook the stock market, uh, right.
00:13:50.720 --> 00:13:54.240
Skills, uh, you know, popularizing skills and MCP.
00:13:54.399 --> 00:14:06.879
So uh they are kind of the company that's inserting uh, you know, kind of their intelligence layer in more places in the high value financial workflows and model agnostic cloud deployments.
00:14:07.519 --> 00:14:11.120
So a little bit more and some of the strengths for each, right?
00:14:11.279 --> 00:14:12.879
OpenAI, let's get to them.
00:14:13.039 --> 00:14:14.240
They're the default.
00:14:14.480 --> 00:14:23.360
They're the, you know, no matter who you're comparing against, whether you're currently a co-pilot, you're saying co-pilot versus uh ChatGPT.
00:14:23.440 --> 00:14:30.000
Uh, if your company is a Google uh workspace company, you're saying, okay, are we Gemini or are we Chat GPT?
00:14:30.159 --> 00:14:36.080
Or maybe one of your teams really took off with Claude and you were using it early on, it's Claude versus ChatGPT, right?
00:14:36.240 --> 00:14:43.759
Chat GPT and OpenAI, they're not going to be out of the conversation for anything, I don't think, in 2026 at least.
00:14:43.840 --> 00:14:53.440
Um, today, best model GPT-5.4 uh thinking, GPT 5.4 Pro, scientific benchmark side, uh, you the they're winning.
00:14:53.519 --> 00:14:57.679
Everything from the traditional uh kind of you know MMLU type, right?
00:14:57.759 --> 00:15:06.000
The ACTs for the AIs to now the the coding, uh the agentic harnessing, the uh computer use.
00:15:06.159 --> 00:15:14.159
So some of these uh areas from a benchmark perspective that used to belong to anthropic, um, yeah, it's it's open AIs, right?
00:15:14.240 --> 00:15:16.000
I could obviously change next week, right?
00:15:16.159 --> 00:15:21.120
Because anytime one of the big three come out with a step-up model, a decimal model, right?
00:15:21.200 --> 00:15:26.080
So going from a 3-1 to a 3-2 or a 4-6 to a 4-7 or a 5.4 to a 5.5, right?
00:15:26.159 --> 00:15:32.879
Anytimes that happens, the the benchmark and the sentiment changes, but open AI is never going to be out of it.
00:15:32.960 --> 00:15:43.360
Uh, right, they've got some huge CapEx uh deals, uh, right, more than a trillion dollars between SoftBank, NVIDIA, and Amazon, uh signing huge deals all the time.
00:15:43.519 --> 00:15:48.240
Uh, and when it comes to getting work done, you have to talk about the GDP valve, uh, right?
00:15:48.399 --> 00:15:50.879
83% win tie rate.
00:15:50.960 --> 00:16:01.120
So uh in blind taste tests, so to speak, producing work, uh, yeah, GPT-5.4 is better or ties expert humans 83% of the time, best in the business.
00:16:01.360 --> 00:16:05.679
All right, Google, like I said, they're the multimodal full stack.
00:16:05.840 --> 00:16:08.159
All right, and they are all over the place.
00:16:08.320 --> 00:16:16.799
But according to Google, more than 120,000 enterprises uh are using uh their um their technology across the stack.
00:16:16.879 --> 00:16:26.879
Uh, more than 8 million paid Gemini's enterprise seats, and uh their year-over-year generative AI revenue is up 400%.
00:16:27.519 --> 00:16:35.120
So, yeah, uh it was the end of 2024 that Google just woke up and chose violence.
00:16:35.440 --> 00:16:40.559
So, at least the last like 15 months, I think Google has been the winner.
00:16:40.639 --> 00:16:41.200
Uh, right.
00:16:41.279 --> 00:16:45.759
And then I think in terms of you know open AI versus anthropic, they've been competing.
00:16:45.840 --> 00:16:50.720
But you know, obviously Google got off to a very bad start when it came to their Bard, right?
00:16:50.960 --> 00:16:52.559
The Bard model wasn't good.
00:16:52.720 --> 00:17:02.799
They came out with some marketing that kind of showed some capabilities of Google Bard that weren't exactly there, and I think that really set them back by probably more than a year.
00:17:03.039 --> 00:17:08.240
But what they're doing on the multimodal and creative side is absolutely bonkers.
00:17:08.319 --> 00:17:12.880
I mean, when you talk about VO 3.1, again, these models might have changed by the time you listen.
00:17:12.960 --> 00:17:14.079
Y'all, I understand that.
00:17:14.160 --> 00:17:26.480
But when you talk about their video models and VO, uh, their nano bananas, uh you know, image generation model, what it can do with infographics and slide generation, uh, right on the Gemini robotics side.
00:17:26.640 --> 00:17:37.680
I mean, their footprint is larger and wider than even Microsoft's, even though Microsoft has that huge head start of just living in the operating system.
00:17:38.240 --> 00:17:42.640
All right, speaking of Microsoft, like I said, they are the enterprise control plane.
00:17:42.799 --> 00:17:49.200
All right, so we've seen reports, more than 15 million paid uh Microsoft 365 co-pilot seats.
00:17:49.279 --> 00:17:53.440
And they did show a 160% year-over-year growth.
00:17:53.519 --> 00:17:56.960
And they did just recently launch a new offering.
00:17:57.039 --> 00:18:00.160
So we'll see uh what that does on the revenue side.
00:18:00.240 --> 00:18:03.839
It's called the M365 E7 bundle.
00:18:04.079 --> 00:18:14.880
It's kind of a higher tier, uh, with some more inclusions than your basic Microsoft 365 co-pilot seat, uh, as well as the co-pilot co-work, which we're gonna talk here in a little bit.
00:18:15.039 --> 00:18:18.480
But um, last but not least, uh, you have Anthropic.
00:18:18.559 --> 00:18:22.880
And I do think that they've come to dominate that premium execution layer.
00:18:22.960 --> 00:18:32.559
So essentially inserting their intelligence in different ways because I think that they've been developer friendly and developer focused from the beginning.
00:18:32.720 --> 00:18:43.920
So when it comes to large enterprises, a lot of their teams that uh maybe were helping make the decisions were maybe more comfortable uh with some of the earlier uh Opus and Sonnet models.
00:18:44.079 --> 00:18:53.440
Obviously, they were kind of first to the game um with clawed code, even though, yes, Microsoft uh you know, Microsoft GitHub Copilot has been around for a very long time.
00:18:53.599 --> 00:19:10.720
But when it came uh from a uh perspective of an agentic command line interface coding tool that came out to a desktop program, even though I think that was still Microsoft GitHub Copilot, should have could have been that tool, but for whatever reason it was anthropic.
00:19:10.799 --> 00:19:14.240
And that's helped them get extremely uh great traction.
00:19:14.319 --> 00:19:14.559
Yeah.
00:19:14.720 --> 00:19:31.039
So reports we've seen anywhere from 14 to 20 billion dollars on the annualized run weight, uh run rate, same thing, investing a lot on the CapEx, building their own actually, um, and the product footprint, everything from Claude Code, which is on itself a unicorn, right?
00:19:31.119 --> 00:19:34.640
Uh reportedly$2.5 billion in revenue just from Claude Code.
00:19:34.720 --> 00:19:45.039
They have the new code work, uh, sorry, co-work, uh, which we'll talk about on the Microsoft side as well, which is you know, allowing you to do your work um on your desktop.
00:19:45.200 --> 00:19:47.759
So it's kind of like Claude Code for non-developers.
00:19:47.920 --> 00:19:59.519
Uh, the new Claude Marketplace, the office add-ins, the plugins, uh, right, Anthropic over the past probably uh three months has been their best three-month run to date.
00:20:00.720 --> 00:20:14.319
All right, and then we have to talk about equity investments because that's where this race gets not tricky, but the answer is nuanced because some of these companies might not be competing in areas where they could.
00:20:14.480 --> 00:20:18.720
Well, because they already have their money and their equity and someone that's winning.
00:20:18.960 --> 00:20:29.200
So, as an example, as of October, when OpenAI uh converted its operating structure from a nonprofit to a PBC or a public benefits corporation.
00:20:29.359 --> 00:20:38.960
Well, Microhoff, Microsoft is the single largest shareholder of the OpenAI group's uh PBC with a 27% stake in the company.
00:20:39.039 --> 00:20:44.799
They yeah, they are the technically the largest single shareholder in the PBC.
00:20:45.680 --> 00:20:51.279
Also, Microsoft has a total investment commitment of five billion dollars in Anthropic.
00:20:51.440 --> 00:20:57.599
So Microsoft has a lot to gain, even if they are losing consumers, right?
00:20:57.759 --> 00:21:13.519
If they have uh, you know, if they're shedding copilot licenses and those people are ultimately going to ChatGPT uh or to Anthropic, well, maybe it's uh a dime out of the left hand, but a dollar in the right hand, or vice versa, right?
00:21:13.680 --> 00:21:18.640
But ultimately, uh as long as they're not losing to Google, Microsoft is winning.
00:21:18.799 --> 00:21:20.640
I think a lot of people are overlooking that.
00:21:20.799 --> 00:21:23.519
Uh, Google also big investments.
00:21:23.599 --> 00:21:30.640
Uh, so in reportedly uh about a 14 or to 15% ownership stake in anthropic.
00:21:30.799 --> 00:21:51.359
So where Microsoft has a very large uh stake in open AI, Google, uh parent company Alphabet has a pretty big slice of that anthropic pie, which from a revenue only side is growing faster uh according to reports than anyone else's revenue pie.
00:21:52.079 --> 00:21:56.240
All right, so let's get back to open AI and tell the story a little bit that way.
00:21:56.319 --> 00:21:59.759
So ChatGPT went from zero to 900 million.
00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:06.960
Billion weekly active users in just over three years, which going from truly zero to nearly a billion, right?
00:22:07.039 --> 00:22:11.440
Probably by the time most people are listening to this, it's going to be a billion weekly active users.
00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:12.880
It's never been done.
00:22:13.039 --> 00:22:18.720
It is just straight up hockey stick to the moon growth.
00:22:18.880 --> 00:22:23.519
Also, revenue finished with$2 billion in 2023.
00:22:23.680 --> 00:22:29.359
Now, very quickly, up to uh that reported$25 billion annualized revenue rate.
00:22:29.440 --> 00:22:30.799
And it's not just consumers.
00:22:30.880 --> 00:22:46.079
Yes, the overwhelming majority of those 900 million are free users using ChatGPT, but they do have 50 million consumer subscribers and 9 million different businesses that now depend and use on and use the platform.
00:22:46.400 --> 00:22:51.440
And I'd say kind of my take here, ChatGPT is the easiest to use.
00:22:51.759 --> 00:22:52.640
It is right.
00:22:52.720 --> 00:22:55.599
I kind of wish they had their codecs, their new coding platform.
00:22:55.759 --> 00:23:00.799
I kind of wish it worked inside of Chat GPT, whether you're using it on the web uh or the app.
00:23:00.960 --> 00:23:01.839
That's the thing, right?
00:23:02.000 --> 00:23:10.799
I think Anthropic has done a great job with their desktop app for Mac as an example, you know, having the chat cowork and code all under one roof.
00:23:10.960 --> 00:23:24.400
So I do think that was maybe a miss there from OpenAI, not just kind of uh integrating Codecs a little bit more tightly into Chat GPT, specifically when it comes to the desktop app, but it is still the easiest to use by far.
00:23:24.799 --> 00:23:25.440
Uh, right.
00:23:25.759 --> 00:23:33.359
Anthropic, yes, it's a little it can be a little confusing, uh, but I'd say anthropic is probably the second easiest to use.
00:23:33.599 --> 00:23:37.839
But the UI, UX, ease of use, right?
00:23:38.000 --> 00:23:44.799
If if your grandparent or parents are using AI, they're probably using Chat GPT because it is the easiest.
00:23:44.880 --> 00:23:46.720
And like I said, it's become synonymous.
00:23:46.799 --> 00:23:52.799
Uh, and the new model, I think, is uh really, really, really good, right?
00:23:52.880 --> 00:23:55.440
I did a recent show on it, so you can go check that out if you want to.
00:23:55.519 --> 00:24:00.799
But I mean, it introduced native computer use, spreadsheet modeling, and direct financial data integrations.
00:24:00.880 --> 00:24:04.240
The trade-off, well, the cost can get high, right?
00:24:04.400 --> 00:24:06.000
Especially on the enterprise side.
00:24:06.079 --> 00:24:14.400
Uh, you know, they don't publicly disclose those, but you know, we hear anything from you know$50 to$70 per enterprise seat, uh, right.
00:24:14.480 --> 00:24:19.839
So a little more than uh Microsoft's baseline uh enterprise seat licensing.
00:24:20.000 --> 00:24:21.599
Obviously, their new$99.
00:24:22.079 --> 00:24:25.440
Uh it uh OpenAI's enterprise one will come under that.
00:24:25.519 --> 00:24:32.319
Uh, but you know, the the trade-off there, and I've been saying this, OpenAI, I don't think cares about being profitable, right?
00:24:32.480 --> 00:24:37.359
They've updated their profitability projections to say they might not be profitable until 2030.
00:24:37.519 --> 00:24:44.160
So essentially, you've had you know anthropic and open AI, the two kind of quote unquote AI startups, take a very different approach.
00:24:44.240 --> 00:24:48.960
Uh, open AI has said we care about users and they're winning that game by far.
00:24:49.119 --> 00:24:53.599
Um, and I think Anthropic has cared probably more about profitability.
00:24:53.759 --> 00:25:05.279
Again, we don't know the price per user, but my strong assumption is Anthropic is crushing everyone else when it comes to revenue per user, because I don't think they have a lot of users, but I do know they have a ton of revenue.
00:25:05.519 --> 00:25:06.319
Uh, all right.
00:25:06.559 --> 00:25:11.039
So their biggest strength might also be their biggest weakness.
00:25:11.119 --> 00:25:11.519
Uh, right.
00:25:11.680 --> 00:25:19.920
Open AI kind of had their infamous code red where uh they kind of realized that they maybe they were lagging behind a little bit on the model side.
00:25:20.000 --> 00:25:25.359
Uh, so I do think over the last month or two, they've really uh corrected course on that.
00:25:25.519 --> 00:25:30.640
But yeah, a lot of people argue that maybe OpenAI um is a little too distracted, right?
00:25:30.799 --> 00:25:32.720
So they have their video product.
00:25:32.880 --> 00:25:41.200
Uh, you know, it's it seems like they're trying to compete maybe with Google and Microsoft and Apple all at the same time.
00:25:41.359 --> 00:25:42.319
Could they do it?
00:25:42.480 --> 00:25:43.359
Maybe, right?
00:25:43.440 --> 00:25:47.200
Whereas Anthropic, its closest competitor, is not doing any of that.
00:25:47.279 --> 00:25:50.480
They're not doing images like OpenAI is, they're not doing video, right?
00:25:50.559 --> 00:25:57.599
Uh, OpenAI reportedly going into consumer hardware with devices, maybe, you know, uh early 2027.
00:25:58.079 --> 00:26:11.039
Uh, but the consumer focus maybe uh has slowed down some of their model progress, some of their research because they're having to devote a lot of their compute to things like the Sora app, right?
00:26:11.279 --> 00:26:12.480
Uh, things like that.
00:26:12.720 --> 00:26:17.279
But um, they are spending reportedly more than anyone else.
00:26:17.440 --> 00:26:21.599
Uh, but at least they are winning on the overall number scheme.
00:26:21.839 --> 00:26:27.839
All right, anthropic, I think is the best for high stakes, high value technical work.
00:26:28.079 --> 00:26:38.559
Emphasis on technical, because I do think if you're looking at overall uh general work productivity, I still do think that open AI and Google are probably the best for that.
00:26:38.640 --> 00:26:44.319
But Claude is a leader on complex reasoning, long documents, and economically uh valuable knowledge tasks.
00:26:44.400 --> 00:26:52.480
And they do say that eight of the Fortune 10 are Claude customers, and there's 500 plus companies that are spending over uh a million dollars annually.
00:26:52.640 --> 00:26:56.559
So uh the product surface is very narrow.
00:26:56.640 --> 00:27:15.519
Uh, anthropic, you can make the argument, is a company that is extremely uh focused on doing one thing very, very well, and that's having very capable models um that have a product market fit in usually niche areas, but now they are starting to broaden out.
00:27:15.599 --> 00:27:30.559
I think toward the end of 2025, um again, anthropic has shocked me because they were really just geared toward the software development, uh, the the devs, uh, right, highly technical financial tasks, and they have really branched out.
00:27:30.640 --> 00:27:39.119
I think Claude Cowork um, you know, was one of those things, uh, but really pushing skills, uh pushing the plugins.
00:27:39.440 --> 00:27:52.400
Uh, I do think that they're broadening out from maybe, you know, the the the technical uh model of choice to now they're probably uh you know starting to win consumers over uh as they've branched out a little bit.
00:27:52.640 --> 00:27:54.480
And I think Claude Code is one of the reasons why.
00:27:54.640 --> 00:27:56.160
Claude Code really good.
00:27:56.319 --> 00:28:03.839
Um personally, um, I do like codex uh better, uh, but Claude Code has been a massive hit.
00:28:04.000 --> 00:28:10.720
You could make the argument it could be a top five uh, you know, AI product of all time.
00:28:10.880 --> 00:28:18.640
I mean, just Claude Code in you know less than six months uh came into$2.5 billion in annual recurring revenue.
00:28:18.799 --> 00:28:27.119
Um, and that's uh right now 4% of all GitHub commits, which is a pretty big amount for a product that is this new.
00:28:27.279 --> 00:28:41.680
Also, they just launched the their Claude Marketplace uh with six different partners where you can kind of uh uh companies using that can commit their spend uh to some of their partners, um, clawed partners in their um kind of plug-in ecosystem.
00:28:42.240 --> 00:28:43.599
All right, Microsoft.
00:28:43.839 --> 00:28:51.440
Microsoft, I'd hate to say it, they are the safe uh kind of you could say old school AI, right?
00:28:51.519 --> 00:28:53.839
They're the safe AI, the safe bet.
00:28:54.000 --> 00:29:04.960
And and one of the reasons is well, it's the one that's approved by most enterprises out of the box because it is literally built into the ecosystem, it is built into the operating system.
00:29:05.200 --> 00:29:10.079
Um, so it's already embedded uh according to reports.
00:29:10.160 --> 00:29:16.480
Uh, more than 90% of Fortune 500 companies are using Microsoft 365 co-pilot uh daily.
00:29:16.559 --> 00:29:18.319
Uh, a big new shift.
00:29:18.480 --> 00:29:24.960
Well, uh, Microsoft announced co-pilot cowork powered by Anthropics Cowork Technology.
00:29:25.119 --> 00:29:34.319
And uh it is gonna be probably a slow rollout over the next few quarters until the uh the the wider business world has their hands on it.
00:29:34.400 --> 00:29:40.559
But this does bring that multi-step task, uh, you know, where essentially it's just doing your work, right?
00:29:40.720 --> 00:29:46.880
Uh, if you've used Claude Cowork, um, it has access to all your files on your computer.
00:29:46.960 --> 00:29:53.680
Uh, it can produce documents, it can use a terminal, it can power a power and control a browser, right?
00:29:53.759 --> 00:29:57.200
So it is very much like an intern or a junior researcher.
00:29:57.279 --> 00:30:03.039
It can access all your files, create files, use a computer, use a terminal, uh, use control a browser, right?
00:30:03.119 --> 00:30:04.559
All these same things that a human can.
00:30:04.640 --> 00:30:13.920
And so I do think that this co-work um kind of movement now that uh Microsoft uh is is starting to productize as well, is one worth paying attention to.
00:30:14.480 --> 00:30:14.880
All right.
00:30:15.119 --> 00:30:19.200
Microsoft, their biggest advantage is one that no one else can really replicate.
00:30:19.279 --> 00:30:21.200
Uh, that's the AI by default, right?
00:30:21.279 --> 00:30:29.119
Like I said, even if people maybe don't want it, they're gonna see co-pilot inside of Word, Excel, Teams, and Outlook.
00:30:29.200 --> 00:30:31.759
Although I do think it's gotten much, much better.
00:30:31.920 --> 00:30:43.599
I think Microsoft uh probably had some of the same early problems as Google when you know they were slapping their copilot in all of their uh you know, all of their office products and it wouldn't always work very well.
00:30:43.759 --> 00:30:47.920
Uh, I think they've gotten that tied up in the last uh probably six months.
00:30:48.079 --> 00:30:54.400
And now that they have kind of the uh the agentic options inside of their office products, even more so.
00:30:54.559 --> 00:31:07.440
And we'll see what happens with this new$99 uh per seat per uh for the E7 Frontier suite that kind of bundles uh AI, security, and governance, and as well as uh co-pilot co-work.
00:31:07.599 --> 00:31:13.680
But the biggest setback for Microsoft it is the learning permissions and governance curve.
00:31:13.759 --> 00:31:15.519
It is way higher than the other three.
00:31:15.599 --> 00:31:17.519
That's because, well, it's there by default.
00:31:17.680 --> 00:31:28.319
Um, so it is it's kind of like a running joke that Microsoft Copilot could be the best AI out there if anyone could figure out how to use it.
00:31:28.480 --> 00:31:30.720
I do know that that's something Microsoft is tackling.
00:31:30.960 --> 00:31:48.400
We've seen reports that their CEO, Sadia Nandella, is essentially, you know, putting in some work as a product manager on Copilot, which is very rare for the CEO of a multi-trillion dollar uh market cap company to start working on product, but that's what we've seen.
00:31:48.559 --> 00:31:56.559
So I am actually uh rather bullish long term um on Microsoft Copilot for that very reason, right?
00:31:56.640 --> 00:32:03.119
When you have the CEO uh rolling up their sleeves to say, hey, this isn't working, we've got to change this.
00:32:03.279 --> 00:32:05.039
Um, I think that's the way to go.
00:32:05.200 --> 00:32:10.240
All right, and then last but not least, Google, the most powerful multimodal AI ecosystem on earth.
00:32:10.319 --> 00:32:19.200
So, like we said, 750 million monthly Gemini users, uh, with 8 million of those reportedly paid seats and huge year-over-year growth.
00:32:19.359 --> 00:32:23.599
And they are the only major provider with native video input, which is big.
00:32:23.759 --> 00:32:30.240
I still people still aren't using this, and it's such a cheat code, uh, alongside text, image, and audio handling.
00:32:30.319 --> 00:32:32.559
And there's deep integration literally everywhere.
00:32:32.720 --> 00:32:37.039
So across search, Android, Chrome, YouTube, Drive, Docs, sheet, right?
00:32:37.200 --> 00:32:43.839
So if you are a uh Gemini or sorry, a Google workspace organization, well, it's gotten a lot better.
00:32:44.000 --> 00:32:53.519
Um again, early, you know, mid-2024 when you started to see uh you know Gemini roll out in beta across workspace, it wasn't good.
00:32:53.680 --> 00:32:57.119
There's actually some instances where it was downright bad, right?
00:32:57.279 --> 00:33:01.759
I remember doing a couple videos on our YouTube channel, just feeling like, yo, this doesn't work.
00:33:01.839 --> 00:33:07.920
Now it's the best, uh, right of uh an update they actually had this week, so in March 2026, right?
00:33:08.000 --> 00:33:11.440
Uh, like certain benchmarks, like you know, spreadsheet editing.
00:33:11.599 --> 00:33:12.640
Now they're the best.
00:33:12.720 --> 00:33:14.640
Um, but it's all it is all over the place.
00:33:14.799 --> 00:33:16.640
So again, kind of a good and bad thing.
00:33:16.720 --> 00:33:25.119
But you have your Gemini, there's a different version of Gemini for business and enterprise, notebook LM, Gemini and Vertex, AI Studio, it's everywhere.
00:33:25.440 --> 00:33:29.519
But one of the newer things is the new workspace overhaul.
00:33:29.680 --> 00:33:37.519
So this fills uh, you know, it puts Gemini in everywhere, in uh Gmail, in Drive, in docs, uh, right.
00:33:37.599 --> 00:33:46.079
So you can essentially talk to Gemini now anywhere inside Google Workspace, whereas before it wasn't quite as easy.
00:33:46.160 --> 00:33:51.279
So now it can just, you know, synthesize and understand your files, emails from anywhere, right?
00:33:51.359 --> 00:33:59.440
So you can essentially leverage and tap into uh your entire Google Workspace ecosystem, no matter where you are within workspace.
00:33:59.519 --> 00:34:05.279
And now Google Drive is also being kind of repositioned uh as like a rag database, right?
00:34:05.359 --> 00:34:11.840
It's an active, citable AI knowledge base across your entire history inside Google Workspace.
00:34:12.639 --> 00:34:19.360
Now, shifting away a little bit here, I think what we have to pay attention to is the agent coding war.
00:34:19.760 --> 00:34:24.079
I think that is maybe where this thing starts to get decided.
00:34:24.159 --> 00:34:32.239
Uh, because coding is the first use case where AI created a concretely measurable ROI at enterprise scale.
00:34:32.400 --> 00:34:39.679
And gains in coding and computer use, I think do spill over into non-technical applications in large language models.
00:34:39.840 --> 00:34:49.039
Because I mean, we've heard from both anthropic, uh, we've heard now from OpenAI as well that uh their models are writing their future models, right?
00:34:49.119 --> 00:34:50.960
Which is also kind of scary, right?
00:34:51.119 --> 00:34:55.360
We have this self-learning and recursive AI that's writing itself, right?
00:34:55.440 --> 00:35:07.360
But once that happens, that means that then those, yeah, I know this sounds weird, but then those models can write hundreds or thousands of specialized models that are then just better at all these other tasks, maybe on the non-technical side.
00:35:07.519 --> 00:35:20.559
So you do have to pay attention to the agent race um and the computer use race, uh, because those are things that are ultimately going to impact the non-technical everyday business work that most knowledge workers are doing.
00:35:20.719 --> 00:35:28.400
Uh, I'd say right now, Cloud Code is leading in adoption and it's trending, but Codex, I think, is probably the hottest on the market.
00:35:28.559 --> 00:35:35.440
Uh, along with the new GPT-5.4 models inside Codex, uh, I do think it's yes, it's way slower.
00:35:35.679 --> 00:35:42.480
But my personal opinion of burning billions of tokens in Codex and in Cloud Code, I'm maxed out on all those.
00:35:42.639 --> 00:35:50.480
Uh, I I am way more bullish, and um uh I do think that it has the higher uh bar right now, Codex does.
00:35:50.559 --> 00:35:57.440
And then obviously you have Microsoft GitHub Copilot that is kind of like one of the OGs when it comes to you know AI coding assistance.
00:35:57.519 --> 00:36:01.199
And Google, again, both great and confusing.
00:36:01.360 --> 00:36:03.360
Google's kind of all over the place here.
00:36:03.519 --> 00:36:10.719
They have everything from Firebase to jewels to code assist uh to the Gemini CLI to anti-gravity.
00:36:11.119 --> 00:36:11.679
Uh, right.
00:36:11.840 --> 00:36:15.760
So Gemini, obviously on the coding side, has a lot of offering.
00:36:15.840 --> 00:36:21.679
But I do think the coding winner could set the template for every agentic category that follows.
00:36:21.920 --> 00:36:24.559
And also the infrastructure side, right?
00:36:24.639 --> 00:36:28.000
You have to see where these companies are investing uh on CapEx.
00:36:28.159 --> 00:36:37.119
So OpenAI, uh reportedly, yeah,$110 billion uh funding round targeting$600 billion in total compute spend through 2030.
00:36:37.199 --> 00:36:46.880
Yeah, they're saying we're spending a ton of money on compute, and that's one of the reasons they're saying they're not going to be profitable, uh, you know, or not as profitable as quickly as maybe some of their other competitors.
00:36:47.039 --> 00:36:57.280
Uh, Google uh spending up to$185 billion in CapEx, Microsoft$37 billion uh in quarter for 2025 alone.
00:36:57.519 --> 00:37:05.920
Anthropic has launched a massive 50$50 billion investment initiative to own and construct their own AI data centers in the US.
00:37:06.079 --> 00:37:08.960
So uh that's technically kind of separate, right?
00:37:09.039 --> 00:37:15.280
But the faster that these companies can get up these CapEx uh you know AI data centers, right?
00:37:15.440 --> 00:37:21.199
That's gonna help them get ahead in in the kind of the day-to-day in the week-to-week AI race.
00:37:21.679 --> 00:37:22.320
All right.
00:37:22.559 --> 00:37:25.519
So as we wrap here, how do you navigate this?
00:37:25.679 --> 00:37:29.760
All right, I gave you a very quick, I know it's 37 minutes in here.
00:37:29.920 --> 00:37:37.920
I gave you a very quick recap of where we've been over the last three years and the pros and the cons of where uh these big four companies are.
00:37:38.000 --> 00:37:39.519
And yeah, it's the big four companies.
00:37:39.679 --> 00:37:42.000
Maybe Meta will re-enter the discussion.
00:37:42.239 --> 00:37:46.239
Perplexity is not really its own uh model maker, right?
00:37:46.320 --> 00:37:50.320
Because I'm sure people are gonna be like, oh, what about you know, Amazon, AWS, right?
00:37:50.480 --> 00:37:52.639
Eh, they're second tier right now.
00:37:52.719 --> 00:37:53.679
That could change, right?
00:37:53.760 --> 00:38:01.599
But right now, it is essentially the three uh frontier AI providers and Microsoft that leverages both of them and Microsoft making their own models.
00:38:01.679 --> 00:38:04.960
But for the most part, stop buying one vendor for it for everything.
00:38:05.119 --> 00:38:08.800
Uh, you know, leadership changes by workload and by the quarter.
00:38:09.039 --> 00:38:16.800
Even if you have a great workflow right now with one of the big four, you need to be working on your 1B plan because I can't say this enough.
00:38:17.039 --> 00:38:23.039
Oftentimes, these companies are going to change something in their big model, and they might not even announce it.
00:38:23.119 --> 00:38:30.000
It might not even be a decimal point change, it just might be an under-the-hood change, and things could go off the rails for your company.
00:38:30.159 --> 00:38:38.639
You always need to be building modularly, you need to redesign processes for agents first that take action, not just chatbots waiting to be asked.
00:38:38.719 --> 00:38:43.760
So that's a big uh kind of change management uh piece for enterprise leaders out there.
00:38:43.840 --> 00:38:46.400
And you need to match the platform to the problem, right?
00:38:46.559 --> 00:38:53.840
So, as an example, maybe right now it's open AI for breadth, cloud for depth, Google for scale, Microsoft for governance, whatever it is.
00:38:54.000 --> 00:39:03.679
There's no problem in having you know two different, although I do think it is best to move as many of your day-to-day knowledge work processes into an AI operating system.
00:39:03.920 --> 00:39:11.840
But I think for specialized tasks and for certain departments, I think it's okay to have a secondary uh, you know, tool or a secondary company.
00:39:12.079 --> 00:39:13.440
So let's end it here.
00:39:13.679 --> 00:39:15.440
Who's gonna win the AI race?
00:39:15.679 --> 00:39:16.079
All right.
00:39:16.239 --> 00:39:20.000
I'm gonna break it down because, like I said, there is no one race, it's many different races.
00:39:20.079 --> 00:39:26.400
But I think there's a couple, there's three big races I think that are being run: consumer, enterprise, and models.
00:39:26.719 --> 00:39:28.639
Consumer, open AI.
00:39:28.800 --> 00:39:30.239
No one else is gonna touch them.
00:39:30.400 --> 00:39:32.400
Google is starting to close the gap.
00:39:32.719 --> 00:39:38.159
Open AI is so far ahead, uh, I don't see them losing that lead anytime soon.
00:39:38.400 --> 00:39:45.599
Enterprise, I do think, as strange as this sounds, this has always been Microsoft's uh battle to lose.
00:39:45.760 --> 00:39:50.320
And I think that from 2023 to 2025, they were losing.
00:39:50.480 --> 00:39:53.920
Uh, so I think right now it's Microsoft versus OpenAI.
00:39:54.079 --> 00:39:55.519
I do think Google is trending.
00:39:55.679 --> 00:40:03.519
Google has a fantastic uh Gemini for business and Gemini for enterprise product, but I don't think anyone knows about it, right?
00:40:03.679 --> 00:40:06.639
People think it's just the Gemini.google.com.
00:40:06.719 --> 00:40:08.400
No, that's the consumer version.
00:40:08.559 --> 00:40:12.559
I think Google uh could start to dominate in that category.
00:40:12.719 --> 00:40:16.719
Um, you know, at least when you talk about non-technical front-end users, right?
00:40:16.880 --> 00:40:20.159
Obviously, they have everything on the vertex side, the AI studio.
00:40:20.239 --> 00:40:22.960
Uh, but yeah, anthropic, not in the picture.
00:40:23.119 --> 00:40:23.599
Sorry.
00:40:23.679 --> 00:40:29.440
Uh they're they're not an enterprise uh player when it comes to enterprise total enterprise users.
00:40:29.760 --> 00:40:30.159
All right.
00:40:30.239 --> 00:40:33.760
And then model capabilities, that's a toss-up, right?
00:40:34.079 --> 00:40:44.480
Um, obviously, anthropics models, top tier, top of the class, uh, open AIs, new releases, uh, you know, in certain areas, great benchmarks as well.
00:40:44.559 --> 00:40:45.599
Uh, and then Google.
00:40:45.679 --> 00:40:57.519
I think I've said it before, Google at any time, because of the mass uh training data that they have, I think anytime they can come out with a new Gemini 3.2, Gemini 3.3, and be the best model in the world.
00:40:57.679 --> 00:41:07.280
So I don't think, although we always are watching that race, the model race, I think it's the least important of all three because it's becoming more and more important.
00:41:07.519 --> 00:41:10.159
The harnessing, uh, the tool, uh, the tool use.
00:41:10.239 --> 00:41:24.719
And like I said, it's not about who has the best model, it's about who helps you bring your data and all of your uh day-to-day workflows agentically into the into the picture.
00:41:24.800 --> 00:41:26.320
That's what it's ultimately about.
00:41:26.480 --> 00:41:31.199
All right, I hope this one was helpful as we went over the state of the AI race.
00:41:31.280 --> 00:41:34.000
Uh, again, this is part of our Start Here series.
00:41:34.159 --> 00:41:46.159
So whether you are brand new to AI or you just want to double down on your knowledge, please go to startheseries.com and go sign up uh and go listen to the entire series there.
00:41:46.320 --> 00:41:47.360
So thank you for tuning in.
00:41:47.519 --> 00:41:50.639
Hope to see you back tomorrow and every day for more everyday AI.
00:41:50.719 --> 00:41:51.360
Thanks, y'all.
